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Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think
Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think
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Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think
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Ian M Dunham
San Francisco State University
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Ian M. Dunham
To cite this article: Ian M. Dunham (2015) Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform
How We Live, Work, and Think, The AAG Review of Books, 3:1, 19-21, DOI:
10.1080/2325548X.2015.985533
The AAG Review of Books 3(1) 2015, pp. 19–21. doi: 10.1080/2325548X.2015.985533.
©2015 by Association of American Geographers. Published by Taylor & Francis, LLC.
eradication, economic development, good governance, by the abundance of data rather than by theory. Big data
and the management of cities. presents a fundamentally different approach that begins
with data collection, then analysis, and then drawing
Three chapters are dedicated to addressing big data’s conclusions from the patterns that appear. Establish-
potential to fundamentally change the very nature of ing causality is, of course, desirable, but it requires ex-
how statistical analysis is carried out through three in- pert knowledge, theory, and the testing of a hypothesis
terlinked and self-reinforcing shifts. The first shift is the to prove results. This is time consuming, and if causal-
ability to analyze vast amounts of data rather than relying ity is established, the results might reflect the biases of
on traditional statistical sampling. For the better part of the researcher, omit other causes, and remain limited
the twentieth century, statisticians adhered to the fun- to only being able to answer the question being asked.
damental conviction that statistical inferences improve Although Mayer-Schönberger and Cukier do not believe
most dramatically, not with increased sampling size, but that correlation will completely replace causality, by “let-
with increased randomness of the sample. After a certain ting the data speak,” new correlations might be revealed
point relatively early on, as the sample size increases, the that point the way toward future hypothesis testing that
benefit to accuracy of increasing the sample size becomes examines causal relationships.
less. Big data allows a fundamental move away from ran-
dom sampling to using all of the data, “N=all,” which Notably the three reinforcing shifts surrounding big data
might reveal new details and connections. might represent a detraction from reliance on expert au-
thoritative knowledge, as subject-area experts will need to
The second shift is a willingness to embrace “real-world
make way for generalists who know how to utilize big data.
messiness” and a loosening of the desire for exactitude.
Although latent knowledge and the application of theory
As a data set increases in size, the likelihood of errors
by experts will always have a rightful place, generalists
increases and analysts are less likely to clean every da-
are more likely to remain impartial to the theories of a
tum point. As the sample size increases, however, short-
specified field, thus possessing the ability to reach find-
comings in accuracy, exactitude, and cleanliness are
ings without prejudgments. In today’s early stages of big
overcome. A sample that is large and messy might yield
data, the ideas and skills of those able to use big data hold
more accurate results than a sample that is few and exact.
the greatest value; however, as data become a commodity,
Contrary to attempting to confirm the richest findings by
and data holders see it as an asset to be monetized, data
using the smallest amount of exact data, a fundamental
ownership and democratization of data will become more
tenet of big data is that, as more data are analyzed, predic-
significant issues.
tive performance is improved.
The third shift facilitated by big data is a growing respect The idealism surrounding big data is tempered by con-
for correlation rather than causality, or a move away from cerns about potential negative implications. One down-
attempting to understand why something is happening side is that these new technologies present opportunities
to simply leaning what it is happening. One tenet of be- to undermine privacy. Big data introduces challenges to
havioral economics is that humans have a desire to es- the three core strategies—individual notice and consent,
tablish causes where they might not exist. Kahneman’s opting out, and anonymization—currently employed to
(2013) landmark book Thinking, Fast and Slow delineates ensure privacy. The authors also raise concerns about the
fast and slow modes of thinking to which humans are potential for overreliance on data when making impor-
prone. When thinking fast, imaginary causal relation- tant decisions. As the Scott (1998) argues in his book
ships, “cognitive shortcuts,” are made that lead to mis- Seeing Like a State, quantification serves the powerful, and
understandings about the world. Mayer-Schönberger and government’s desire for data collection and quantifiable
Cukier argue that big data presents an opportunity to pre- order could have adverse impacts on citizens. Problems
vent cognitive biases that could lead to incorrect causal arise when decision makers rely solely on data and omit
intuitions. vital knowledge about the subtleties of citizens and pro-
cesses. A more extreme example of the danger of over-
In 2008 the editor-in-chief of Wired magazine made the reliance in the predictive power of big data is that if big
bold statement that big data has the potential to render data could predict that an individual will commit a crime
the scientific method obsolete (Anderson 2008). His ar- before it happens, people could be punished for their pro-
gument is that, whereas the traditional process of scien- pensity to commit a crime. This raises concerns about the
tific discovery seeks to establish causality through the ethical considerations of the role of free will versus the
scientific method, big data allows research to be driven dictatorship of data.
WINTER 2015 21