CHAPTER 2: THE MODELING PROCESS,

PROPORTIONALITY, AND GEOMETRIC

SIMILARITY

Joezerk A. Carpio BS - MATH IV

Department of Mathematics and Statistics

College of Science and Mathematics
Western Mindanao State University
joezerkc@gmail.com

October 7, 2021

Joezerk A. Carpio BS - MATH IV (WMSU) MATH 145 - MATHEMATICAL MODELING October 7, 2021 1 / 12
 INTRODUCTION

In Chapter 1 we presented graphical models representing population size,

drug concentration in the bloodstream, various financial investments, and
the distribution of cars between two cities for a rental company. Now we
examine more closely the process of mathematical modeling. To gain an
understanding of the processes involved in mathematical modeling,
consider the two worlds depicted in Figure 2.1.

Figure 2.1: The real and mathematical worlds

Suppose we want to understand some behavior or phenomenon in the real

world. We may wish to make predictions about that behavior in the future
and analyze the effects that various situations have on it.
Joezerk A. Carpio BS - MATH IV (WMSU) MATH 145 - MATHEMATICAL MODELING October 7, 2021 2 / 12
 INTRODUCTION

For example, when studying the populations of two interacting species, we

may wish to know if the species can coexist within their environment or if
one species will eventually dominate and drive the other to extinction. In
the case of the administration of a drug to a person, it is important to
know the correct dosage and the time between doses to maintain a safe
and effective level of the drug in the bloodstream.
How can we construct and use models in the mathematical world to help
us better understand real-world systems? Before discussing how we link
the two worlds together, let’s consider what we mean by a real-world
system and why we would be interested in constructing a mathematical
model for a system in the first place.

Joezerk A. Carpio BS - MATH IV (WMSU) MATH 145 - MATHEMATICAL MODELING October 7, 2021 3 / 12
 INTRODUCTION

A system is an assemblage of objects joined in some regular interaction or

interdependence. The modeler is interested in understanding how a
particular system works, what causes changes in the system, and how
sensitive the system is to certain changes. He or she is also interested in
predicting what changes might occur and when they occur. How might
such information be obtained?

Joezerk A. Carpio BS - MATH IV (WMSU) MATH 145 - MATHEMATICAL MODELING October 7, 2021 4 / 12
 INTRODUCTION

For instance, suppose the goal is to draw conclusions about an observed

phenomenon in the real world. One procedure would be to conduct some
real-world behavior trials or experiments and observe their effect on the
real-world behavior. This is depicted on the left side of Figure 2.2.

Figure 2.2: Reaching conclusions about the behavior of real-world systems

Joezerk A. Carpio BS - MATH IV (WMSU) MATH 145 - MATHEMATICAL MODELING October 7, 2021 5 / 12
 INTRODUCTION

Although such a procedure might minimize the loss in fidelity incurred by a

less direct approach, there are many situations in which we would not
want to follow such a course of action. For instance, there may be
prohibitive financial and human costs for conducting even a single
experiment, such as determining the level of concentration at which a drug
proves to be fatal or studying the radiation effects of a failure in a nuclear
power plant near a major population area. Or we may not be willing to
accept even a single experimental failure, such as when investigating
different designs for a heat shield for a spacecraft carrying astronauts.
Moreover, it may not even be possible to produce a trial, as in the case of
investigating specific change in the composition of the ionosphere and its
corresponding effect on the polar ice cap.

Joezerk A. Carpio BS - MATH IV (WMSU) MATH 145 - MATHEMATICAL MODELING October 7, 2021 6 / 12
 INTRODUCTION

Furthermore, we may be interested in generalizing the conclusions beyond

the specific conditions set by one trial (such as a cloudy day in New York
with temperature 82 ◦ F, wind 15-20 miles per hour, humidity 42%, and so
on). Finally, even though we succeed in predicting the real-world behavior
under some very specific conditions, we have not necessarily explained why
the particular behavior occurred. (Although the abilities to predict and
explain are often closely related, the ability to predict a behavior does not
necessarily imply an understanding of it. In Chapter 3 we study techniques
specifically designed to help us make predictions even though we cannot
explain satisfactorily all aspects of the behavior.) The preceding discussion
underscores the need to develop indirect methods for studying real-world
systems.

Joezerk A. Carpio BS - MATH IV (WMSU) MATH 145 - MATHEMATICAL MODELING October 7, 2021 7 / 12
 INTRODUCTION

An examination of Figure 2.2 suggests an alternative way of reaching

conclusions about the real world. First, we make specific observations
about the behavior being studied and identify the factors that seem to be
involved. Usually we cannot consider, or even identify, all the factors
involved in the behavior, so we make simplifying assumptions that
eliminate some factors. For instance, we may choose to neglect the
humidity in New York City, at least initially, when studying radioactive
effects from the failure of a nuclear power plant. Next, we conjecture
tentative relationships among the factors we have selected, thereby
creating a rough model of the behavior. Having constructed a model, we
then apply appropriate mathematical analysis leading to conclusions about
the model.

Joezerk A. Carpio BS - MATH IV (WMSU) MATH 145 - MATHEMATICAL MODELING October 7, 2021 8 / 12
 INTRODUCTION

Note that these conclusions pertain only to the model, not to the actual
real-world system under investigation. Because we made some
simplifications in constructing the model, and because the observations on
which the model is based invariably contain errors and limitations, we
must carefully account for these anomalies before drawing any inferences
about the real-world behavior.
In summary, we have the following rough modeling procedure:
1. Through observation, identify the primary factors involved in the
real-world behavior, possibly making simplifications.
2. Conjecture tentative relationships among the factors.
3. Apply mathematical analysis to the resultant model.
4. Interpret mathematical conclusions in terms of the real-world problem.

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 INTRODUCTION

Figure 2.3: The modeling process as a closed system

We portrayed this flow of the modeling process in the introduction to

Chapter 1 and show it again in Figure 2.3 as a closed system. Given some
real-world system, we gather sufficient data to formulate a model. Next we
analyze the model and reach mathematical conclusions about it. Then we
interpret the model and make predictions or offer explanations.
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 INTRODUCTION

Finally, we test our conclusions about the real-world system against new
observations and data. We may then find we need to go back and refine
the model to improve its predictive or descriptive capabilities. Or perhaps
we will discover that the model really does not fit the real world
accurately, so we must formulate a new model. We will study the various
components of this modeling process in detail throughout the book.

Joezerk A. Carpio BS - MATH IV (WMSU) MATH 145 - MATHEMATICAL MODELING October 7, 2021 11 / 12
 That’s all. Thank You!

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