Proc. Instn Ciu. Engrs, Part 2, 1977, 63, Mar.

, 21-34

7979 Flood estimation for small East

African rural catchments

The analysis of flood records from a network of small representative rural catchments
in East Africa is described. A method of predicting flood peaks with a ten year re-
currence interval is developed which is similar to methods in use elsewhere in tropical
Africa but more responsive to changesin land use. The results of applying the method
are compared with those using existing East African flood prediction techniques. It is
concluded that current design techniques result in overdesign on catchments of average
or below average floodpotential,

Introduction
A large proportion of the total cost of building a road in East Africa is for the
construction of bridges and culverts to cross streams draining small catchments.
Whereas most of the larger rivers in East Africa have flow measuring stations,
few smaller streams are so equipped. Design methods must therefore be based
on rainfall runoff models.
2. Few data are available for the development of suitable flood models. In
1966 the Kenya and Uganda governments and the Transport and Road Research
Laboratory (TRRL) co-operated in a project to instrument twelve representative
catchments, results from which could be used to develop improved flood design
methods.
3. In this Paper theprogramme of analysis is described and the resulting
design method compared with current East African design techniques and the
method developed for West Africa by the Office de la Recherche Scientifique et
Technique Outre-Mer (ORSTOM).

Distribution of catchments and instrumentation

4. The location of the catchments is shown in Fig. 1 and details are given in
Table 1. The catchments were chosen to cover as wide a range as possible of
the factors that affect flood runoff: rainfall, land use and topography, the latter
being linked to soil type. Most of the catchments were small (up to 15 km2)
to facilitate accurate measurement of mean rainfall and flood flow. A few were
larger but the effect of catchment area had to be allowed for by simulation.
5. Only two measurements were made on site: rainfall and stream flow.
Following an analysis of existing rainfall records' it was decided that a density

Written discussion closes 15 May, 1977, for publication in Proceedings, Part 2.

8 Crown copyright.
* Transport and Road Research Laboratory, Crowthorne.
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 FIDDES

E
L E
E 5 :
52€ : P+2

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 F L O O DE S T I M A T I O NF O RE A S TA F R I C A NR U R A LC A T C H M E N T S
of 2.5-5 rain gauges per km2 depending on aridity would be practical and satis-
factory for catchments up to 10 km2 in area. These figures could be reduced by
one tenth for catchments of 150 km2 in area. These gauges were largely daily
read totalizing rain gauges which were used to give the mean rainfall for each
storm and a check on the area1 variability. To check the temporal variation in
the rainfall approximately one quarter of the gauges were autographic, either
Casella natural syphon or Dines tilting syphon gauges, the latter with TRRL
monthly chart units.
6. For economy, wherever possible the flow measuring structures were built
into existingroad culverts. This meant that each structure had to be individually
designed and various structures were used, trapezoidal flumes and crump weirs
being the most common. On streams carrying a heavybed load Plynlimon

0 I00 200

Fig. 1. Location of catchments

23

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 FIDDES
type flumes were used. For the largest catchments structures would have been
prohibitively expensive and in these cases waterfalls were used as natural con-
trols and rated on site. Details of the instrumentation are given in Table 2;
the choice of the catchments and instrumentation is discussed elsewhere.a

TRRL flood model

7. Atthestart of the research programme it was hoped to isolate unit
hydrographs and generate a rainfall-runoff correlation for each catchment and
use these to develop a general flood prediction method. However, it soon be-
came apparent thatsuch an approachwas not appropriate because
(a) anadequate rainfall-runoff correlation requires a large number of
storm dataincluding many producing high flows
(b) storms that can be used to derive unit hydrographs (i.e. high intensity
storms of unit duration) are rare, particularly on small catchments
where the unit time is short compared with the typical storm length
(c) the shape of flood hydrographs on the catchments was much more
variable than found elsewhere and dimensionless hydrograph tech-
niques found useful in the USA were therefore not applicable.

Table 2. Catchment instrumentation

Catchment Number of rain gauges Stream flow control

Reference 1 Name
-
Autographic Daily
Kenya
K1 Tiwi 3 13 Trapezoidal flume in exis-
ting box culvert
K2 Mudanda 4 4 Plynlimon type flume
K3 Migwani 5 28 Road causeway rated by
dilution gauging
K4 Kajiado 4 10 Crump weirinexisting
box culvert
K5 Eseret 4 11 Plyniimon type flume
K6 Kiambu I 4 7 Trapezoidal flume
K7 Kiambu I1 4 10 Trapezoidal flume
K8 Saosa 3 6 Sharp edged veenotch
Uganda
U1 Barabili 3 8 Roadculvert with vee
notch low flow control
U2 Munyere
sub-catchment 4 H typeflume
U3 Munyere 20 Crump weirsinexisting
box culverts
U4 Rubaare 16 Roadculvertwithvee
notch low flow control
U5 Sezibwa 6 Waterfallrated by cur-
rent meter
U6 Lugula 8 Flat vee crurnp weir in
existing culvert

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 F L O O D E S T I M A T I O N F O R E A S TA F R I C A NR U R A LC A T C H M E N T S
8. A method where more effective use could be made of the limited data
that can be collected in a few years was therefore required for this study.
9. The method finally used was a variation on the techniques used in West
Africa by ORSTOM.3 In West Africa data were available from many catch-
ments and from each a ten year flood hydrograph was predicted. The general
flood method was derived from these hydrographs and involves a graphical
method of predicting the hydrograph volume and base time and hence, using a
ratio of peak to average flow during thebase time, the peak flow.
10. For the East African study the ten-year flood hydrographs were generated
using a simple catchment model. Each catchment was divided into a number
of sub-catchments. The runoff from each sub-catchment was simulated using a
linear reservoir analogue and the concept of contributing areaCA.
11. The sub-catchment model can be summarized as follows.
( U ) Early rain fills the initial retention Y. Runoff at this stage is zero.
(6) Subsequent rain falling on theparts of the catchment from which runoff
will occur C, enters thereservoir storage S.
(c) The runoff is then given by y = S / K where K is the reservoir lag time.
12. The translation of this runoff down the stream system to the catchment
outfall was modelled using a modification of the finite difference technique
developed by Morgali and L i n ~ l e y . ~
13. Approximately four years of data were available foreach catchment.
For most catchments these included a number of large storms but, inevitably
with such short periods of research, on some catchments only relatively small
storms were recorded. The model was run for each large storm ona catchment
and for a variety of values of the parameters K and CA. The recorded and pre-
dicted hydrographs were then compared and the optimum values of the param-
eters arrived at by tests of goodness of fit.
14. The flood model had then been calibrated for each catchment. To de-
velop a general flood model the difference in response of the catchments, as
shown by the variation in the optimum values for the parameters CA, Y and K,
was examined.
15. When the catchment surface is very dry, runoff is small and occurs only
from areas very close to the stream system. For storms following a wet period a
larger area contributes and larger volumes of runoff occur. If the catchment
weresufficiently wet, the whole area would contribute and the value of CA
would approach unity. However, except on very small solid clay or rock
catchments there is a practical upper limit to C , which is well below unity.
16. For simplicity it is assumed that the contributing area coefficient varies
linearly with soil moisture recharge until the soil reaches field capacity when the
limiting value of C, is attained.
17. Four factors influence the size of the contributing area coefficient. These
are soil type, slope, type of vegetation or land use (particularly in the valley
bottoms) and catchment wetness. The network of catchments was selected to
cover the range of these factors to be found in East Africa. The results could
therefore be used to give indications of their effect on CA.
18. The effect of slope and soil type was studied by comparing the results of
the catchments with grass cover and the storms falling on soil at field capacity.
19. The effect of antecedent wetness was studied by comparing the runoff
volumes resulting from storms occurring at different stages of the rainy season.
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 FIDDES
The reduction in value of CAwas assumed to vary linearly with the soil moisture
deficit. For design purposes this has to be related to the probability of the soil
being at field capacity when the design storm occurs. Huddart and Woodward5
have shown that East Africa can be divided into three zones
(a) a semi-arid zone where runoff is not affected by antecedent rainfall
(b) a wet zone where there is a high probability of the soil being at field
capacity
(c) a dry zonewhere there is a high probability that thesoil will be less than
field capacity.
These zones are shown in Fig. 2. Using the catchment results appropriate

P
0'

-S'

-10'

30' E 3 9 E 40" E
Scale of kdomerrer

Fig. 2. Antecedent wetness zones

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 F L O O D E S T I M A T I O N F O R E A S TA F R I C A NR U R A LC A T C H M E N T S
values for the reduction in CAfor design conditions for the various zones were
determined.
20. The effect of land use was calculated by comparing the recorded volumes
of runoff with those that would have occurred with a standard grassed catchment.
21. The design value of the contributing area coefficientis therefore given
by
C A = Cscwc, . . . . . , . * (1)
where C, is the standard value of the contributing area coefficient for a grassed
catchment at field capacity, C, is the catchment wetness factor and C, is the
land use factor.

Table 3. Standardcontributingareacoefficients (wet zone catchment, short grass

cover)

l Soil type
Catchment
slope 11 Slightly
drained 1 impeded
Well I Impeded
drainage
I drainage 1
Very flat, < 1.0%
Moderate, 1 4 %
Rolling, 4410% 0.40 0.50 .
Hilly, 1020% 0 60
Mountainous, > 20% 0.20

lable 4. Catchment wetness factor

Catchment wetness
Rainfall zone factor C,
Perennial Ephemeral
streams , streams
Wet zones
Semi-arid zone 11.0
.o I 1.0
1 *O

11
Dry zones
(except West Uganda) 0.75 0.50
West Uganda 0.60 0.30
1

Table 5. Land use factors CL (base assumes short grass cover)

soil bare Largely j 1.50

Intensecultivation(particularlyinvalleys)
cover Grass l 1.50
1.00
Densevegetation(particularlyinvalleys)
Ephemeralstream,
sand
filled
valley l 0.50
0.50
valley filled Swamp
Forest I 0.33
0.33

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 FIDDES

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 FLOOD E S T I M A T I O N FOR E A S TA F R I C A NR U R A LC A T C H M E N T S
22. These factors may be estimated from Tables 3-5. West Uganda has
been singled out as an area in which large soil moisture deficits are tobe expected
frequently. This may be thought surprising considering the relatively high
mean annual rainfall but in West Uganda, and to a lesser extent in the otherdry
zone areas, large rain storms are isolated events which tend to occur in the drier
months.
23. In semi-arid areas the initial retention Y has been found to be indepen-
dent of the soil moisture deficit and a value of 5 mm can be assumed. Elsewhere
a zero value can be assumed except for the West Uganda area where 5 mm is
appropriate.
24. As the recorded storms varied in severity it was necessary'to use the
model for each catchment to simulate a flood by known occurrence interval
before a comparison could take place. A ten year flood was selected for com-
parison. This was simulated by using a ten year storm profile and appropriate
values for the model parameters. The results are given in Table6.
25. In Table 6 there is a large range of lag time K . Attempts were made to
obtain a correlation of K with various catchment characteristics such as overland
slope, contributing area and drainage density, but the only factor which showed
a strong relationship was vegetation cover. The same conclusion was drawn
by Bell and Om Kar,6 who obtained results from 47 small catchments located
throughout the USA.
26. The appropriate value of lag time can be estimated using Table 7. In
assessing in which category to place a given catchment it should be remembered
that generally only small areas either side of the stream are contributing to the
flood hydrograph. It is these areas, therefore, which must be assessed.
27. Once estimates of the parameters Y, CA and K have been made for a
catchment, a design flood can be estimated by routing a design storm through the
computer program. This can be time consuming and for many purposes a
simpler technique is required. From CA and Y the volume of runoff from
any given design storm can be calculated and if the hydrograph shape can be
related to the catchment lag time K, the peak flow can also be estimated.
28. Many research workers have published dimensionless hydrographs and
it has been shown' that in the USA these approximate closely to

. . . (2)

where Q is'the discharge at time T after the start of rise, Qm is the peak dis-
charge and T, is the time to peak.
29. The most widely used dimensionless hydrograph is that of the US Soil
Conservation Service.' For arid areas Hickok et aL8 suggest a more peaked
shape.
30. In all cases theratios of time to peak to base time are very similar.
This was not found to be true for the East African catchments studied. For
consistency the base time was assumed to be the time from 1% of peak flow on
the rising limb to 10% of peak flow on the falling limb of the hydrograph. De-
fined this way the ratioof base time to time to peak is approximately 3.0 for the
US hydrographs. For the East African catchments it varied between 2.7 and
11.0. The use of a single hydrograph based on time to peak was, therefore not
appropriate.
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 FIDDES

E 0oooooom
00
E om moo
K

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 F L O O DE S T I M A T I O N F O R E A S TA F R I C A NR U R A LC A T C H M E N T S
31. A more stable ratio, peak flow factor F, was found to be the peak flow
Q divided by the average flow measured over the base time 0
F= Q/e. . . . . . . . * (3)
This is the factor used by Rodier and Auvray3 in West Africa. For very short
lag times ( K ~ 0 . 2 h F
) was 2.8 ? 10%. For all lag times longer than one hour,
F was 2.3 k 10%. These figures are valid for the catchment results and were
confirmed by a simulation exercise in which area, slope, 1ag time and contributing
area coefficient werevaried systematically.
32. The peak flow can therefore be simply estimated if the average flow during
the base time of the hydrograph can be calculated.
33. The total volume of runoff is given by
R0 = (P- Y)CAA103m3 . . , . . . (4)
where P is the storm rainfall in mm during time period equal to the base time,
Y is the initial retention in mm, C, is the contributing areacoefficient and A is the
catchment area in km2.
34. If the hydrograph base time is measured to a point on the recession curve
at which the flow is one tenth of the peak flow then the volume under the hydro-
graph is approximately 7% less than the total runoff given by equation (4).
35. The average flow 0 is therefore given by

where TBis the hydrographbase time in hours.

36. The method of estimating the base time was derived from the study re-
ferred to in § 3 1. It is made up of
(a) the rainfall time
(6) the recession time for the surface flow
(c) the attenuation of the flood wave in the stream system.
37. The rainfall time Tp is the time during which the rainfall intensity remains
at high level. This can be approximated by the time during which 60% of the
totalstorm rainfall occurs. Using the general East African depthduration
equationg

(6)
where Z is the intensity, T the duration and a and n are constants. The time to
give 6 0% of the total stormrainfall is given by solving the equation
T 24.33
0.6 = -
24 T-tO.33
(p)

' ' ' ' * '

Values for the variousrainfall zones of East Africa are given in Table 8.
38. The time for the outflow from a linear reservoir to fall to one tenth of its
initial value is 2.3K where K is the reservoir lag time. The recession time for
surface flow istherefore 2.3K.
39. In the simulation study, values for base time were calculated for various
areas, slopes, lag times and contributing area coefficients. Knowing the rainfall
time and the surface flow recession time, the additional time for flood wave
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 FIDDES
attenuation T A can befound bydifference. It was found that this could be
estimated from the equation
(8)
e
where L is the length of the main stream in km,n is Manning's n, is the average
flow during base time inm3/s and S is the average slope along themainstream.
40. The base time is therefore estimatedfrom the equation
T B = Tp+2.3KS TA . . . . . . . (9)
31. The average flow 0 can then be estimated. It will benoted that 0
appears'in equation (8) so an iterative or trial and error solution is required. If
initially TA is assumed to be zero, two iterations shouldbe adequate.
42. Knowing 0and F the peakflow iscalculated using equation (3).
43. Table 9 indicates the results achieved in using the short method for the
networkcatchments. Generally the estimates are higher thanthe ten year
flood produced by the catchment models. This is due to a slight rounding up
of the standard contributory area coefficients in Table 3 to allow for possible
errors in estimate of the ten year floods due to extrapolation from only a few
years of record.

Comparison with other flood models

The ORSTOMmethod
44. The TRRL methodis very similar to the ORSTOM m e t h ~ d . ~ The basic
differences between the two methods are theway in which variations in vegetation
are allowed for and the way in which the base time is calculated.
45. To apply the ORSTOM method a catchment is classified according to
climate, permeability and slope. There are three climatic zones: arid and semi-
arid, humid, and rain forest. Permeability and slope are divided into five and
six classes respectively.
46. The runoff coefficient and base time are estimated from graphsapplicable
to each climatic zone. The runoff coefficient depends on catchment area, slope
and soil permeability; the base time depends only on area and slope.
47. The effect of vegetative cover on the volume of runoff is assumed to be
allowed for in the different curves for the climatic zones. In the TRRL method
adjustmentscan be madetothe contributing area coefficient. Similarly no
adjustment is made to thebase time for vegetation within a climatic zone except
for forests. In the TRRLstudy it was shown that base time was very dependent
on the type of cover, particularly in the valleys.
48. This would makeit difficult to apply theORSTOM methodoutside
West Africa. The TRRL method should also be better able to make adjust-
ments for changes in land use such as thecultivation of former grassland or the
destruction of grassland by overgrazing.

Kenya Ministryof Water Development methods

49. The two most commonly applied methods of flood estimation for small
catchments in Kenya'O which can be compared with the TRRL method are the
Richards method1' and the East African Railways and Harbours nomograph.
50. The Richards method is a modification of the rational method in which
allowance is made for the rainfall pattern and intensity, the size, shape and
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 F L O O D E S T I M A T I O N F O R E A S TA F R I C A N RURAL CATCHMENTS

Table 10. Comparison of ten yearflood estimatesfor TRRLcatchments

Catchment Richards,
m3/s
Tiwi
Mudanda
Migwani
8-1
30.6
71.8
18.8
20-3
186.0
1 25.5
29.4
179.0
1 1 5.3
11.2
361.0
5.7
6.8
377.0
Kajiado
Eseret
Kiambu I
20.9
7.2
5.9
25.4
20.7
7.3
1 34-8
40.5
8.3
I . _
0.34
l 9-0
_3.0_
0-14
Kiambu I1 11.3 22.8 16.1 5.9 3.6
Barabili 19.2 18-2 7.2 077 0-67
Munyere 5.8 6.3 5-9 2.23 1.11
Rubaare 37.2 61.4 29.5 5.4 4-6
Lugula 4-5 20.7 22.3 3.1 2.27
Saosa 10.9 17.9 I 1.9 0.75 0.63

slope of the catchment in assessing the value of the runoff factor K in the equation
Q p = KZA . . . . . . . . (10)
where Qp is the peak flow, Z is the rainfall intensity and A is the catchment area.
51. In the nomograph there is no rainfall input but allowance is made for
type of soil, slope, vegetative cover and catchment slope as well as area.

Results ofcomparison
52. The results of applying these flood methods to each of the catchments are
shown in Table 10. Table 10 also shows the estimated value of the flood flow
'using the computer model as described in 10-14. This is the best estimate of
the ten year flood and the one with which the others should be compared. It
would be unwise to conclude that the other methods for flood prediction are in all
cases inferior to the TRRL method. To decide this it would be necessary to
compare predictions using catchment data thatwere not used for the development
of the TRRL method. However, it is clear that the other methods are signi-
ficantly in error in certain cases, particularly catchments where the soil type or
land use either reduce the volume or speed of runoff. Examples of such catch-
ments are Kiambu I, Barabili and Rubaare. The TRRLcatchments were chosen
to cover the complete range of catchment responses. It is not unreasonable to
expect methods developed on inadequate data andlargely from flood susceptible
catchments to overestimate grossly in a more normal catchment. The TRRL
method does not always give lower estimates than the other methods. The
Migwani estimate is significantly higher and this is justified by a large flood after
the research programme was completed exceeding the computer model ten year
estimate.
53. It may also be concluded from Table 10 that a similar prediction by two
methods is not necessarily a confirmation of the accuracy of prediction.

Conclusions
54. For the economic designof rural highways the accurate prediction of
flood flows in rivers is required. It has been shown that existing methods in use
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 FIDDES
in East Africa tend to overestimate flows, grossly in some cases. This is due to
the fact that they cannot adequately allow for the reduction in volumetric storm
flow and hydrograph attenuation of vegetation particularly in the valley bottom.
55. It has been shown that the TRRL flood model, which is an adaptation
of the ORSTOM model to make it fully sensitive to changes in land use, can
give good flood predictions for a wide range of catchment types.

Acknowledgements
56. The work described in this Paper forms part of the programme of the
Environment Division of the Transport and RoadResearch Laboratory (headed
by Mr L. H. Watkins) and the Paper is published by permission of the Director.
The equipment in the catchments was installed and operated for the TRRL by
the Water Development Departments of the Kenya and Uganda governments.
The help and assistance of theDirector and Commissioner are gratefully
acknowledged.

References
1. FIDDESD. The density of rainguage networksoverrepresentativecatchments in
Kenya and Uganda. RoadResearchLaboratory,Crowthorne, 1970, TN 480,
Unpublished.
2. FIDDES D. and FORSGATE J. A. Representative rural catchments in Kenya and
Uganda. Road Research Laboratory, Crowthorne, 1970, Report LR 318.
3. RODIER J. A. and AUVRAY C. Preliminary general studiesof floods on experimental
andrepresentativecatchmentareas in TropicalAfrica.IASHSymposium of
Budapest, 1965,1,22-38.
4. MORGALIJ. R. and LINSLEY R. K. Computer analysisof overland flow. J. Hydraul.
Diu. Am. Soc. Ciu. Engrs,1965,91, HY3, May, 81-100.
5. HUDDART L.and WOODWARD P. G . The prediction of antecedent catchment wet-
ness. ECA/EAC/TRRL FloodHydrologySymposium,Nairobi, 1975.
6. BELLF. C. and OMKARS. Characteristic response timesin design flood estimation.
Jnl Hydrol., 1969,8, No. 2,173-196.
7. LINSLEY R. K. et al. Hydrology for engineers. McGraw-Hill, New York, 1958.
8. HICKOKR. B. et al. Hydrographsynthesis for smallaridwatersheds. Agric.
Engng, Lond.,1959, Oct., 608-615.
' 9. FIDDES D. etal. The predictionofstorm rainfall in EastAfrica. Transportand
Road Research Laboratory, Crowthorne, 1974, Report LR623.
10. NCUNYA E. A. Description of current flood prediction methods in Kenya. ECA/
EAC/TRRL Flood Hydrology Symposium, Nairobi,1975.
1 1 . RICHARDS B. D. F1oode.ctimationand control. Chapman and Hall, London, 1955.

34
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