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GPE 7.11 Keynes Capital Mobility and The Crisis of Embedded Liberalism
GPE 7.11 Keynes Capital Mobility and The Crisis of Embedded Liberalism
GPE 7.11 Keynes Capital Mobility and The Crisis of Embedded Liberalism
Jonathan Kirshner
To cite this article: Jonathan Kirshner (1999) Keynes, capital mobility and the crisis
of embedded liberalism, Review of International Political Economy, 6:3, 313-337, DOI:
10.1080/096922999347209
A BS T R A C T
This article argues that in an era characterized by increased practical and
analytical concern for the domestic consequences of international market
forces, through the study of Keynes’ own writing we can better under-
stand the signicance of the contemporary challenges to the compromise
of embedded liberalism and the consequences of the possible unraveling
of that order. A Keynesian interpretation of the Asian nancial crisis illus-
trates both the application of Keynes’ philosophy of political economy and
its continuing relevance.
K E Y WO R D S
Keynes; capital mobility; embedded liberalism; nancial crisis; middle way;
political economy.
it will be the role of this country to develop a middle way of economic life
which will preserve the liberty, the initiative and (what we are so rich in)
the idiosyncrasy of the individual in a framework serving the public good
and seeking equality of contentment amongst all.
(Keynes, 1944e: 369)
In the past decade, the world has witnessed a movement in the direc-
tion of unregulated market forces. While many hail these developments
as the ultimate triumph of capitalism, others raise concerns about the
erosion of social-democratic bargains which emerged after World War
II, that were designed to insulate the majority of the population of indus-
trial states – the middle and working classes – from the rougher edges
of the capitalist system. To better understand the political and economic
consequences of these recent developments, there could be no more
appropriate time to revisit the writings of John Maynard Keynes, who
© 1999 Routledge 0969–2290
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K E Y NE S A ND C O NT E MP O R A R Y PO L IT IC A L EC O N O MY
The contemporary relevance of Keynes is well illustrated by the distinct
internationalist explanation Keynes’ perspective offers for the Asian
nancial crisis. Most orthodox explanations, on the other hand, have
stressed the proximate domestic origins of the crisis. But these inter-
nal factors, while certainly present, are much clearer in retrospect than
they were just a few months before the crisis. In November 1996,
for example, the IMF touted ‘ASEAN’s Sound Fundamentals Bode
Well for Sustained Growth’ in a banner headline of its newsletter.
In May 1997, IMF Managing Director Michael Camdessus stated that the
international economic environment justied an atmosphere of ‘rational
exuberance’. The IMF reported further that ‘overheating pressures
have abated in many emerging market economies, especially in Asia –
where growth has stayed strong for several years’ (IMF, 1996a: 377;
1997b: 129–30).
Not only are the internal sources of the crisis largely evident in
hindsight, they do not address the underlying structural cause of the
crisis, which, from a Keynesian perspective, derives from the functioning
of the international nancial system. As one of the principal architects
of the IMF and the post-World War II nancial system (about which
more below), Keynes favored capital controls, especially over short-term
capital movements. While he favored an open international economy
that facilitated foreign investment, Keynes drew a sharp distinction
between mobile capital and completely unregulated capital. As a result,
the rules of the IMF were written to explicitly accommodate capital
controls. From a Keynesian perspective, there are three reasons why
completely unregulated nancial capital is unwise.
The movement of short-term capital falls into a class of economic
activity central to Keynes’ approach: where the sum of individual actors
responding rationally to incentives does not result in collective efciency.
Such spheres need to be identied, and are the appropriate targets of
government intervention. Especially today, with technology that
combines very large nancial markets with very low transactions costs,
the result is ‘too much’ movement of short-term capital. This is because
capital mobility can impose costs to society that are not borne by its
producers, and thus, like other negative externalities, tends to be over-
produced. There are three principal reasons why completely unregulated
capital is an example of such a market failure.
First, the movement of huge amounts of capital in and out of states
can alter dramatically, and literally overnight, the value of crucial assets
such as national currencies and local equities. Macroeconomic variables
such as interest rates and ination can also be subject to sudden varia-
tion. Pure capital mobility thus heightens uncertainty, which Keynes
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K EY N ES A N D T H E ‘ MI DD L E WA Y ’
This interpretation of the Asian crisis derives from a more comprehen-
sive philosophy of political economy that was developed by Keynes: the
middle way, which is facilitated at the international level by an embedded
liberalism. It was Ruggie (1982: 393) who coined the term ‘the compro-
mise of embedded liberalism’, which he dened as states’ consensus that
‘multilateralism would be predicated upon domestic interventionism’.
This meant that postwar institutions would support an internationalist,
market-oriented order, but would allow for mechanisms, safeguards and
escape clauses through which states would not be forced to sacrice
domestic social policies in order to maintain international equilibria. In
contemporary politics, one can observe evidence for the unraveling of
this compromise (Schwartz, 1994; Helleiner, 1994; Hall, 1986). This may
have profound consequences that will be unanticipated by those who
are unaware of the extent to which the compromise of embedded liber-
alism was designed to allow for the practice of the middle way – and
in so doing, to avoid the economic horrors of the interwar years.
Ruggie attributed the concept of market embeddedness to Polanyi,
and his book, The Great Transformation (1944). Polanyi argued that
the breakdown of the international order was a consequence of the
nineteenth-century laissez-faire economic system, which was unsustain-
able because, unlike other periods in human history, ‘Instead of economy
being embedded in social relations, social relations are embedded in the
economic system’ (Polanyi, 1944: 57).
But while Polanyi did call attention to the relationship between state
and society, it would be wrong to associate him with embedded liber-
alism, and an even greater mistake to consider him a founding father of
that philosophy.6 While Polanyi criticized laissez-faire capitalism, he was
not a reformer, and in fact was skeptical of the prospects for the types
of reforms that would be associated with embedded liberalism.
Additionally, despite the obvious merits of the book, Polanyi did not
offer a clear course of action.7 Finally, by the time Polanyi wrote in 1944,
Keynes had already presented a clearly articulated and well-known
argument in favor of what could be called embedded liberalism: the
need to accommodate the middle way.8
What was Keynes’ middle way? It was his conception of the economic
structure and organization of society, designed as an alternative to the
existing approaches of the day, laissez-faire liberalism and Marxism.
Neither of these nineteenth-century philosophies was capable of
sustaining economic progress in the twentieth century. While Keynes
spent a good portion of his career elaborating the middle way, there are
three or four works in particular which represent the core of the philos-
ophy: ‘Am I a Liberal?’ (1925b); ‘The end of laissez-faire’ (1926); ‘Poverty
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to put in its place, we are extremely perplexed’ (1933c: 239). Thus dissat-
isfaction with unregulated capitalism was but a rst step. But toward
what? There was no justication for proceeding further without
providing a viable alternative, and it was this to which Keynes devoted
much of his career.
He wrote that it was the ‘escape from Bentham, joined with the unsur-
passable individualism of our philosophy, which has served to protect
us from the nal reductio ad absurdum of Benthamism known as Marxism’
(Keynes, 1949b: 445).17
In sum, the political economy of the middle way was that of the market
nested in a system of domestic management that contained those aspects
of the market process which led to inferior economic, social and polit-
ical outcomes. The market plays a central role in this story: it is too
efcient to be discarded, and it safeguards individual liberty. Yet unfet-
tered, it will lead to suboptimal economic outcomes, and will generate
injustice, which is both inherently unappealing and politically dangerous.
But the tools for that management are those of ‘coarse tuning’ – ensuring
that there is adequate investment and aggregate demand – through the
manipulation of incentives to invest and the propensity to consume.
Philosophically, the goal is to achieve adequate social justice (which
would fall far short of ‘perfect’ equality) without sacricing economic
efciency or individual liberty. This is the challenge of the middle way:
Liberals are in a more difcult position. They are inclined to sympa-
thise with Labour about what is just, but to suspect that in the
ignorant blind striving after justice labour may destroy what is at
least as important and is a necessary condition for any social process
at all – namely efciency.
(Keynes, 1927: 638)18
TH E I NT E R N A T IO N A L E C O NO M Y A N D T H E
M ID D LE W A Y
Keynes faced a dual problem in his time, which has resurfaced in the
contemporary era. First, a domestic consensus must be achieved on the
need for a middle way: the view that unfettered markets would lead to
suboptimal economic outcomes. While this could come about from a
shared normative perspective, Keynes, as seen above, rooted his argu-
ments in both positive economic and practical political foundations: such
a system could not sustain itself indenitely and would, as a conse-
quence, probably elicit a dangerous political reaction.
However, even if the rst problem could be solved – achieving
domestic consensus – there remained the international problem. Market
forces spill across sovereign boundaries. Thus even if a particular state
attempted to contain the market in its domestic economy, it might be
undermined by international forces. For the middle way to work, the
international economy also had to be managed to insure that interna-
tional market forces did not disrupt domestic management. The middle
way requires embedded liberalism. Disembedded liberalism – unltered
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might erode other aspects of the quality of life that are left undercounted
by the market’s abacus, and that unltered market forces might make
it difcult for states to pursue varied and experimental economic poli-
cies at home (Keynes, 1933c: esp. 242–4). However, even this must be
further qualied, for Keynes renewed his enthusiasm for international
trade once the prospects for international cooperation and thus
embedded liberalism appeared more likely.24 Further, trade was never
the true focus of Keynes’ concern. Much of Keynes’ preoccupation with
trade centered on the persistent and structural pressures on Britain’s
trade balance (Keynes, 1943: 259). Such pressures could easily manifest
themselves in chronic balance of payments crises which would force the
same types of contractionary policies once used to defend the gold stan-
dard. This underscores the extent to which the international threat to
the middle way almost always ultimately emanated from the monetary
side of the economy.
In Keynes’ time, the principal challenge to the middle way did come
from the monetary side. This should not be surprising, given the
emphasis on money in Keynes’ career. On the question of the middle
way, he wrote: ‘It is not an accident that the opening stage in this polit-
ical struggle, which will last long and take many different forms, should
centre about monetary policy’ (Keynes, 1925b: 306). It was Keynes’ view
that an unregulated international monetary system would impose a
contractionary bias on all domestic economies, particularly by imposing
higher than optimal interest rate policies and affecting the overall level
of investment.
The international monetary system presents immediate problems for
all states, since, except under circumstances of happy coincidence, they
must choose between stability in the domestic or in the international
price level. If the external price level is stable, e.g. if the exchange rate
is xed, then states lose control over their domestic price levels. Fixed
exchange rates serve as efcient conductors of monetary phenomena.
Flexible exchange rates, on the other hand, allow for deviations between
states’ domestic price levels, since those can be mediated by movements
in exchange rates. Throughout his career, when forced to choose, Keynes’
preference was to retain control over the domestic price level. Stability
in exchange rates was desirable, and if international monetary cooper-
ation could assure this, then so much the better. But if such international
coordination was not possible, then, when push came to shove, domestic
price stability should take precedence over exchange rate stability.25
The essential problem of monetary cooperation – which practically by
denition involves efforts to inuence exchange rates – is that it involves
a sacrice of national monetary policy autonomy. Under a gold stan-
dard, for example, ‘bankers are not even trying to preserve the stability
of prices and of employment’, because their policies are ‘necessarily
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governed by the policies of all the other central banks’ (Keynes, 1930b:
199, 255). This phenomenon was at the heart of Keynes’ criticisms of the
interwar gold standard system, which, Keynes argued, perpetuated the
Great Depression and, more specically for our purposes, made it impos-
sible to introduce policies that would be associated with the middle way.
With a gold standard, if any country’s macroeconomic policies depart
from the average policies of the other participants, there will be move-
ments of gold. If a country attempts to expand its economy, under
conditions of perfect capital mobility, the resulting gold outow will
threaten its ability to remain on the gold standard. Either the policy or
the commitment to gold must give way. Essentially, interest rates must
be uniform throughout the system. However, the optimal domestic
interest rate for a given state may deviate from the one established by
the average of all states (Keynes, 1930b: 271).26
This problem became signicant in the interwar period. Keynes
opposed Britain’s return to the gold standard on the grounds that the
Bank of England would be forced to take measures which ‘necessarily
involves intensifying unemployment’ in Britain (1925c: 220).27 Indeed,
this was at the heart of Keynes’ critique of the interwar gold standard.
Given the need to stem outows of gold that threatened convertibility,
the gold standard essentially ‘involved a competitive campaign of dea-
tion’, which ‘intensied unemployment and business losses to an
unendurable pitch’ (Keynes, 1931b: 248). This was compounded by the
inherent fragility of the international nancial system which was never
properly reconstructed after World War I, and was essentially a tangle
of untested currency restorations, debt payments, and reparations quiv-
ering in the winds of political contestation and discord.28 Under such
conditions, central banks were particularly conservative in the manage-
ment of their reserves – but it is the ow of reserves that ultimately
allows an international monetary system to function. Not only were
central banks overly cautious: given the perceived scarcity of interna-
tional reserves, they each attempted to assure an adequate supply,
resulting in rounds of competitive tightening of credit. Even states that
were secure in their gold holdings, such as the United States, could exac-
erbate this problem if they pursued tight monetary policies for domestic
reasons. In either case, such policies draw gold from the rest of the world
and force responsive credit contractions elsewhere.29
Leaving the gold standard was necessary for the practice of the middle
way. As Keynes noted in his famous phrase, ‘There are few Englishmen
who do not rejoice at the breaking of our golden fetters’ (1931b: 245).
Adherence to the standard had meant that ‘the objective of maintaining
a domestic rate of interest consistent with full employment was wholly
ruled out’, and now Britain had ‘at last a free hand to do what is sensible’
(Keynes, 1936a: 339).
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But while breaking with gold was necessary, it was not sufcient to
assure recovery. Depreciation was helpful in that it stimulated economic
recovery, and caused output, employment, investment and exports to
rise more quickly than in states that remained on the gold standard. But
depreciation was not the remedy in itself: rather, it was signicant in
that it liberated scal and monetary policies from the constraints imposed
by the gold standard. Keynes felt vindicated by the positive benets
associated with the end of the gold standard, but he argued that Britain
could have taken even greater advantage of the opportunities that it
presented (Keynes, 1932e: 41; 1933b; see also Eichengreen, 1992: 21, 293).
Additionally, breaking with gold and reating, however welcome,
especially given the economic conditions of the time, do not end the
story. The problems of the international monetary system don’t simply
disappear with the overthrow of King Midas. Keynes’ legacy includes
a broader theoretical argument about the international monetary system
in general: his argument was that such a system, left unregulated, imparts
a deationary bias onto the international economy, which is most visible
under a gold standard system but to some extent is always present.
Fixed exchange rate systems are problematic because they force
the main burden of adjustment onto debtor countries.30 ‘The process
of adjustment is compulsory for the debtor and voluntary for the cred-
itor’. With greater pressure on debtors to deate than there is on creditors
to reate, there is an obvious deationary bias at work. Additionally,
since debtors are typically small they are also forced to make propor-
tionally large adjustments in prices and wages to restore equilibrium to
their international accounts – and this without even considering the fact
that ‘the social strain of an adjustment downwards is much greater than
that of an adjustment upwards’ (Keynes, 1941b: 27–8). Thus the inter-
national monetary system tends to promote deation and has a tendency
to political instability.
Keynes spent much of his career searching for ways to mitigate this
deationary bias. In the 1930s, he explored marginal reforms, such as
increasing the ‘gold points’ – the spread between the price at which
central banks would buy and sell gold in exchange for their currencies.
Such spreads would provide some room for macroeconomic policy
autonomy. He also considered the possibility of a transactions tax to
mitigate speculative ows. In this era Keynes also raised the possibility
of supernational management, but recognized that such an outcome was
highly unlikely (Keynes, 1930b: 291, 357; 1936a: 160). But with World
War II, the USA and Britain began to explicitly prepare for the construc-
tion of the postwar international economic order – and supernational
management suddenly became feasible.
Keynes, again at the British Treasury for the war, saw the opportu-
nity to resolve the problem of the deationary bias in the international
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D IS EM B ED D ED LI BE R A LIS M A ND IT S
C O NS EQ U E N C ES
The postwar international economic order was, as Ruggie argued,
designed around the principle of embedded liberalism. International
trade and monetary arrangements were designed to prevent international
market forces from forcing governments to abandon policies associated
with the middle way. Over time, however, international liberalism has
become increasingly disembedded, especially, and crucially, with regard
to money and nance.32 One of the reasons that this has happened is
that the lessons of the interwar period, upon which the international
economic order was constructed, have faded from memory, along with
the teachings of Keynes.
Forgetting Keynes means that a set of theories regarding the con-
sequences of unregulated capitalism have also been forgotten. Those
consequences include a tendency for decreasing income equality
and a deationary bias in the international monetary system. Keynes
held that domestic government policies were required to manage
aggregate demand, and assure adequate investment; and that the
international economy must be mediated to assure that global market
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KIRSH NER: KEYNES AND THE CRISIS OF LIBERALISM
forces did not prevent governments from introducing the policies of the
middle way.
Keynes justied the middle way on three foundations: normative,
positive and political. With the passage of time, the normative argu-
ments have tended to obscure the positive and the political. This may
have actually facilitated the retreat from the middle way, by diverting
attention from the potential costs of such an evolution. But Keynes
identied the economic and political costs of unregulated capitalism,
and held those costs to be signicant. These issues remain relevant in
contemporary politics.
C ON C L U S IO N: T HE M ID D LE WA Y I N T H EO R Y A N D
HI ST O R Y
Unregulated capitalism is tough stuff. Many of the recent changes in
economic relations across and within nations have expanded the role of
the market. In many, if not most, of these instances, these changes might
prove appropriate. But the work of Keynes suggests that unfettered
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KIRSH NER: KEYNES AND THE CRISIS OF LIBERALISM
market forces, within states and between them, will lead to suboptimal
economic and political outcomes. The contemporary Asian nancial
crisis, fueled by unregulated international capital and contained only by
severe domestic contraction, is a clear illustration of this.38 The problem
of unregulated capitalism may be observed more generally in Eastern
Europe and the former Soviet Union. When Keynes wrote that ‘The
treaty includes no provisions for the economic rehabilitation of Europe
– nothing to make the defeated Central empires into good neighbors,
nothing to stabilize the new states of Europe, nothing to reclaim Russia’
(Keynes, 1919: 143), one can nd parallels to the consequences of the
end of the Cold War.39 More than that, it should be remembered that
the triumph of capitalism in the postwar era is not the triumph of laissez-
faire, it is the triumph of the middle way and embedded liberalism. The
postwar ‘golden age of capitalism’ featured an embedded liberalism
which accommodated domestic social policy, built on the lessons of the
past and the failures of unregulated capitalism earlier in the century.
Forgetting history – the lessons of history and the theorists of history –
risks cultivating the conditions which contributed to the economic and
political upheavals of another age.
N OT E S
I thank Rawi Abdelal, Richard Bensel, Tom Christensen, John Ikenberry, Peter
Katzenstein, Charles Kindleberger, Karl Mueller, Jonas Pontusson, Gustav
Schachter, Martin Shefter, two anonymous referees, and the participants in the
Political Economy Research Colloquium at Cornell University for helpful
comments on earlier versions of this article.
1 John Maynard Keynes (1883–1946) lived a remarkably rich life that dees
quick summary. Editor of the Economic Journal for over thirty years, promi-
nent pamphleteer and private advisor to the British government, his books
include The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919), A Tract on Monetary
Reform (1923a) and A Treatise on Money (1930a, 1930b). Keynes also main-
tained an active interest in the arts, which provides insight into aspects
of his general philosophy. He founded and managed a theater in Cam-
bridge in 1935, and was later a member of the board of trustees for the
National Gallery and chair of the Committee for the Encouragement of Music
and Arts. During World War II Keynes represented the British government
in negotiations that shaped Lend-Lease, Bretton Woods and the postwar
British loan.
The literature on Keynes is enormous. I would call attention to three biogra-
phies: Harrod (1951) which has the distinct perspective that only a
contemporary could provide; Moggridge (1992) written by the principal
editor of Keynes’ Collected Writings; and Skidelsky (1983, 1994) (third volume
forthcoming).
2 A frustrating aspect of The General Theory is that it is the most famous yet
among the least clearly written of Keynes’ works, which is particularly
distressing since Keynes usually wrote beautifully. Some of the book’s main
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themes can be found in other writings which were directed at a more popular
audience: see Keynes and Henderson (1929); Keynes (1930c, 1933d, 1932a).
It should also be noted that history has tended to ignore Keynes’ atten-
tion to the management of excessive demand. Keynes (1940a) addressed this
issue most comprehensively. Three years earlier, Keynes (1937d: 388) also
wrote: ‘Just as it was advisable for the Government to incur debt during the
slump, so for the same reasons is it now advisable that they should incline
to the opposite policy . . . The boom, not the slump, is the right time for
austerity at the Treasury.’
3 The data suggest that 80 percent of all foreign exchange transactions involve
round trips that take place in less than a week, and more than half of those
in under two days (ul Haq et al., 1996: 3).
4 In the wake of the crisis, however, there has been some backlash against the
consensus on capital deregulation. See Bhagwati (1998) and Rodrik (1998).
5 Under the headline ‘International Capital Markets Charting a Steadier
Course’, the Fund also noted that ‘Although the scale of nancial activity
continues to grow, market participants – including high-risk high-return
investment funds – are more disciplined, cautious, and sensitive to market
fundamentals’ (IMF, 1996b: 293).
6 Ruggie does not make this mistake, noting both that ‘Polanyi’s prediction
of the end of the capitalist internationalism does not stand up well’ and that
‘Some of Polanyi’s thoughts about the future had already been entertained
by the individuals who would come to be directly responsible for negoti-
ating the monetary component of the postwar international economic order’
(Ruggie, 1982: 388, 387). But the second point is a dramatic understatement,
and it is too easy for the reader to come away from Ruggie’s paper associ-
ating Polanyi with embedded liberalism.
7 It should also be noted that the postwar practice of economic intervention
in the domestic sphere looked much more like the ‘middle way’ described
below (macroeconomic management but with circumscribed micro controls)
than it does Ruggie’s interpretation of embedded liberalism. See Nau (1990:
72–4); also Brinkley (1995: 266–8). I thank an anonymous referee for bringing
this point to my attention.
8 On Polanyi’s skepticism about reform, see for example Polanyi (1944: 130),
where he argues that the ‘countermovement checking the expansion’ of the
market, which was ‘vital . . . for the protection of society, in the last analysis
was incompatible with the self-regulation of the market, and thus with the
market system itself’. It was Keynes, undercast in Ruggie’s play, who inu-
enced those who contemplated the postwar order. See for example the
Economist (1941: 222), which declared the postwar problem to be ‘combining
a New Deal in world trade with New Deals in domestic and social policy’;
also Hansen and Kindleberger (1942). It also quite likely that Polanyi’s (1944)
emphasis on the international monetary system as an important transmitter
of destabilizing international market forces (see for example Chapter 16,
‘Market and productive organization’, pp. 192–200, 205, 219) was inuenced
by Keynes’ earlier arguments in this vein; see pp. 322–323 below.
9 ‘Am I a Liberal?’ was rst given as an address and subsequently published
in two parts in The Nation and Athenaeum, 8 and 15 August 1925. It was
reprinted by Keynes in Essays in Persuasion. ‘The end of laissez-faire’, also
originally a lecture, was published as a pamphlet by Hogarth Press in July
1926. The pamphlet was excerpted in Essays in Persuasion, and the Collective
Writings (CW) version (vol. IX) reprints the full pamphlet. (Page numbers
here and elsewhere in this article refer to CW versions.) ‘Poverty in plenty’,
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KIRSH NER: KEYNES AND THE CRISIS OF LIBERALISM
As Skidelsky (1983: 133) notes, ‘My early beliefs’ is ‘a key document for
understanding his life’s work’. Similar themes are also explored in Keynes
(1933c: 242). On the similarities between Marxism and laissez-faire in this
regard, see Keynes (1934b: 488). On the philosophical poverty of economism,
see Keynes (1926: 293; 1925a: 267). On the role of economists in solving the
economic problem, see Keynes (1930d: esp. 332).
18 Keynes also noted: ‘If society had always been strictly just, I am not sure
that we might not still be monkeys in a forest.’ On these themes of the
middle way, see also Keynes (1927: 640; 1926: 294); and on the ‘true destiny
of New Liberalism’ (1925b: 305).
19 Representative of Keynes’ view at this time was his characterization of protec-
tion as ‘a disastrous and deceptive prescription’, while free trade was ‘a
necessary and essential defense against a crushing poverty’ (Keynes, 1922:
2). See also his passionate support for free trade (Keynes, 1923b: 147).
20 Keynes (1931g: 231) subsequently wrote that he made the proposals ‘some-
what in desperation’; see also (1931e: 12). Note as well the highly qualied
nature of these proposals raised by Keynes in various forums Keynes (1930e;
1930g: esp. 120, 123, 125; 1930f). On the retreat from the revenue tariff, see
Keynes (1931a: 243).
21 This occasionally led to charges of inconsistency, which once provided
Keynes the opportunity to respond to a heckler: ‘The difference between me
and some other people is that I oppose Mr. Lloyd George when he is wrong
and support him when he is right’ (Harrod, 1951: 396). More impressively,
Keynes, who ardently supported a policy of unilateral disarmament and
pacism in the 1920s, in the 1930s supported a vigorous rearmament policy
and emerged as a strong critic of British appeasement policies. On disar-
mament and pacism, see Keynes (1923d: 451; 1925b: 301). On the 1930s, see
Keynes (1936c, 1937b, 1938).
22 Even in the latter, Keynes’ strongest protectionist statement, he notes that
‘Nine times out of ten [the free trader] is speaking forth the words of wisdom
and simple truth’ (1932b: 204).
23 Moggridge (1992: 575) makes the important point that Keynes’ support of
protection was highly qualied, and that ‘those who have been inclined to
cite Keynes in support of their protectionist views should do so with caution’.
However, in my view Moggridge under-emphasizes the extent to which
Keynes was willing to entertain such measures.
24 See for example his speech before the House of Lords, 16 May 1944, where
Keynes argued ‘The expansion of our export industries which is so vital to
us would be much easier if obstacles to trade can be diminished or done
away with all together’ (Keynes, 1944d: 4; see also 1944b: 316).
25 ‘[T]here does seem to be in almost every case a presumption in favour of
the stability of prices’ (Keynes, 1923a: 125). For a quick summary of the prin-
cipal themes maintained by Keynes regarding international monetary
relations, see Keynes (1936c: 500).
26 In 1923 Keynes (1923a: 139–40) argued that given the distribution of the
world’s gold, a restoration of the gold standard would ‘surrender the regu-
lation of our price level and the handling of the credit cycle to the Federal
Reserve Board of the United States’. Even if this untested institution was
able to overcome domestic pressures on its autonomy, it was not certain,
‘apart from weakness or mistakes, that the simultaneous application of the
same policy will always be in the interests of both countries’.
332
KIRSH NER: KEYNES AND THE CRISIS OF LIBERALISM
27 Keynes (1923c: 100) raised this criticism as early as 1923, in his opposition
to an interest rate hike: ‘There is no necessary reason why disturbances on
the continent need cause a million or two Englishmen to stand idle.’
28 On the fragility of the international nancial system, see Eichengreen (1992).
This important book not only surveys the nancial terrain, but develops, in
many cases more fully and systematically than Keynes did, the argument
that the interwar gold standard transmitted deationary shocks that elicited
responses which magnied their consequences and prevented states from
introducing compensatory measures, and that the key to recovery lay in
abandonment of the gold standard to pursue domestic expansion. On the
politicization of the interwar international monetary system and its conse-
quences, see Kirshner (1995: 175–92).
29 ‘A further consequence of the very dear money in the United States was to
exercise a drag on the gold of the rest of the world and hence to cause a
credit contraction elsewhere’ (Keynes, 1931d: 350; see also Keynes, 1929).
30 These problems are less acute in a system of oating rates. However, as
discussed below (p. 328), they can still be signicant.
31 Gardner (1980), emphasizes the differences in the US and British proposals;
Ikenberry (1992) emphasizes the similarities. The successive versions of
Keynes’ proposals, with other drafts, and related documents and corre-
spondence are in CW, vol. XXV and the rst part of volume XXVI.
32 Cohen (1996); Goodman and Pauly (1993); Cosh et al. (1992). It can be argued
that nancial markets were highly integrated in earlier periods of history
(Neal, 1990; Zevin, 1992) but this does not affect the argument regarding
trends and consequences in the postwar period.
33 Again, this was most visible in the nancial side of the economy: ‘The powers
of uninterrupted usury are too great. If the accretions of vested interest were
to grow without mitigation for many generations, half the population would
be no more than slaves to the other half’ (Keynes, 1923a: 56).
34 It should be recalled (as noted above, p. 319) that Keynes held that there was
both philosophical and economic justication for signicant income inequal-
ity. He also placed a greater priority on assuring adequate investment.
35 As Keynes (1936d: 16) wrote to Hawtrey ‘I favour a scheme of direct taxa-
tion in order to redistribute incomes in such a way as to increase the
propensity to consume.’ Recent studies lend support to the view that income
equality and economic growth are positively correlated. See Persson and
Tabellini (1994); Chang (1994); Corry and Glyn (1994). Note that the focus
here is on developed states and not intended to contradict Kuznets’ argu-
ment regarding changes in income equality over the course of economic
development.
36 Exchange rate exibility gives states some breathing room, but does not elim-
inate the international constraint unless states are completely indifferent to
their exchange rates. Few states, if any, have this luxury, and the dramatic
increases in the speed and scale of capital mobility have reduced the time
it takes for states to reach the limits of their capability to tolerate exchange
uctuations.
37 The idea that price changes do not work their way uniformly through the
economy is, I believe, one of the most signicant and underappreciated
aspects of Keynes’ economics. See Keynes (1930a: 82, 244; 1923a: 1).
38 More subtly, unregulated capital may contribute to a chronic condition of
slower growth and increased political contestation in the advanced indus-
trial states. See Kirshner (1998).
333
REVIEW OF INTERNA TIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY
39 For more by Keynes on the peace conference, see the exquisitely written ‘Dr.
Melchior: a defeated enemy’ (Keynes, 1949a).
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337