1 NEWS Kantar Public Poll

22 – 26 January 2022
Attention: Television New Zealand

Contact: (04) 913-3000

Release date: Thursday 27 January 2022

Level One
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PO Box 33690 Takapuna
Auckland 0740
Ph: (09) 919-9200

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101 Lambton Quay
PO Box 3622, Wellington 6011
Ph: (04) 913-3000

www.kantarpublic.com/nz
Contents
Contents .......................................................................................................................................................... 1

Methodology summary ................................................................................................................................... 2

Summary of results .......................................................................................................................................... 3

Key political events .......................................................................................................................................... 4

Question order and wording ............................................................................................................................ 5

Party vote ........................................................................................................................................................ 6

Preferred Prime Minister ................................................................................................................................. 8

Economic outlook .......................................................................................................................................... 10

Approval for Jacinda Ardern .......................................................................................................................... 12

Approval of Christopher Luxon ...................................................................................................................... 13

Price of housing in New Zealand .................................................................................................................... 15

Three Waters Reform .................................................................................................................................... 16

Parliamentary seat entitlement ..................................................................................................................... 17

Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement ................................................................................ 17

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Methodology summary
CLIENT: Television New Zealand.

RELEASED: Thursday 27 January 2022

POLL CONDUCTED: Interviewing took place from Saturday 22 to Wednesday 26 January 2022.

MEDIAN FIELDWORK DAY: Sunday (50% of sample size target was reached on this day).

TARGET POPULATION: Eligible New Zealand voters.

INTERVIEW METHOD: Telephone and online. Conducted by CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone
Interviewing) and CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interviewing).

SAMPLE SELECTION: Mobile: Random dialling of New Zealand mobile telephones using probability
sampling. Interviewers ask to speak to the main user of the phone who is aged 18
years or over. When required, multiple calls are made to reach that person. Voting
eligibility is determined at the first question.
Online: Interviews are collected by online panels, with quotas (or interviewing
targets) set to ensure the final sample is nationally representative. All respondents
are aged 18 or over. The panels used comply with the ESOMAR guidelines for online
research.

SAMPLE SIZE: n = 1,000 eligible voters, including n=500 polled via mobile phone and n=500 polled
online, using online panels.

SAMPLING ERROR: The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence
level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower
than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5%
have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-points, respectively,
at the 95% confidence level.
These sampling errors assume a simple random sample of 1,000 eligible voters.

It should be noted that any demographic sub-group analysis (e.g., by age or gender)
will be based on a smaller set of interviews and so will have a wider sampling error.

WEIGHTING: The data have been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age,
gender, region, ethnic identification and education level.

REPORTED FIGURES: Reported bases are unweighted. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded
up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to
1 decimal place. For all other figures percentages have been rounded up or down to
whole numbers except those less than 1%, which are reported to 1 decimal place.
All sub-group differences listed for supplementary questions are statistically
significant at the 95% confidence level.

METHODOLOGY NOTES: The party vote question has been asked unprompted since February 1997.

Note: Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party
support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
This poll was conducted in accordance with the New Zealand Political Polling Code. Publication or reproduction
of the results must be acknowledged as the “1 NEWS Kantar Public Poll”.

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Summary of results
PARTY SUPPORT – PARTY VOTE
Labour Party 40% Down 1%-point from 6-10 November 2021
National Party 32% Up 4%-points
ACT 11% Down 3%-points
Green Party 9% Steady
New Zealand First 2% Down 1%-point
Māori Party 2% Up 1%-point
The Opportunities Party (TOP) 2% Up 1%-point
New Conservative 1% Steady
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 1% Steady

UNDECIDED VOTERS
Party Vote – Don’t know or refused 11% Up 2%-points from 6-10 November 2021

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Jacinda Ardern 35% Down 4%-points from 6-10 November 2021
Christopher Luxon 17% Up 13%-points
David Seymour 6% Down 5%-points
Winston Peters 1% Steady
Chlöe Swarbrick 1% Down 1%-point

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Optimism 22% Down 7%-points from 6-10 November 2021
Pessimism 49% Up 2%-points

The results shown on this page, and the changes identified over time, are reported to the nearest whole
number. More detailed results are provided in the body of this report.

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Key political events
10 – 26 January 2022
▪ New Zealand went into the ‘Red’ setting of the Traffic Light System on Monday 24 January 2022, after
transmission of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 was found in the community.

▪ In light of the change in Traffic Light setting, increased calls were made urging the public to get their
booster vaccination if they were eligible.

▪ National Leader Christopher Luxon said the Government made no progress in the plan to deal with
Omicron over the summer, and that the country is not in a great position to face the new variant.

▪ Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a range of new measures to fight COVID-19, including new mask
mandates, increased use of rapid antigen tests, and boosted PCR nasal swab testing capacity.

▪ Economists from ANZ said they expect house prices to fall by 7 percent this year. While this is more than
initially expected, they said it would not ease affordability issues any time soon.

▪ The debate over the Three Waters Reform continued. Local Government expert Dr Andy Asquith said the
reform could result in protest candidates running in the upcoming 2022 local body elections.

▪ Multiple businesses claimed that the Government is seizing private supplies of rapid antigen tests to
bolster its own stocks.

▪ It was announced that more than half of families with children received a benefit in the first year of the
Government’s Families Package.

▪ Calls were made for the New Zealand Government to do more to help put pressure on Russia after
tensions continued to rise after Russian troops amassed near Ukraine.

▪ The National Party’s mental health spokesman Matt Doocey made calls for the Government to convene a
youth mental health summit to look at ways to help young people struggling with the mental health
impacts of the pandemic.

▪ Destiny Church Leader Brian Tamaki was imprisoned for allegedly breaching his bails conditions by
speaking at an anti-vaccine rally in Christchurch attended by more than 100 people.

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Question order and wording

Voting eligibility
“If a general election was held today, would you be eligible to vote?”

NOTE: Those not eligible to vote are excluded from the total sample size for this poll.

Likelihood to vote
“If a general election was held today, how likely would you be to vote?”

NOTE: Those claiming they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote have been included in the party
support analysis.

Introduction
“Under MMP you get two votes.

One is for a political party and is called a party vote.

The other is for your local MP and is called an electorate vote.”

Party vote
“Firstly thinking about the Party Vote which is for a political party.

Which political party would you vote for?”

IF DON’T KNOW

“Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

NOTE: Those who indicated the party they would be most likely to vote for have been included in the party
support analysis, provided they said they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote.

Preferred Prime Minister

“Thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?”

IF NO ONE

“Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”

Economic outlook
“And do you think during the next 12 months the economy will be in a better state than at present, or in a
worse state?”

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Party vote
“Which political party would you vote for?”

IF DON’T KNOW “Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

28 Nov –
3-7 Oct 10-14 Oct 9-13 Mar 22-26 22-26 Sep 6-10 Nov 22-26 Jan
2 Dec
2020 2020 2021 May 2021 2021 2021 2022
2020
Don’t know 8% 7% 3% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7%
Refused 5% 8% 5% 4% 2% 3% 2% 4%
TOTAL 13% 14% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 11%
Base (n=) 1,007 1,005 1,004 1,006 1,002 1,001 1,001 1,000
Based on eligible New Zealand voters.

28 Nov –
3-7 Oct 10-14 Oct 9-13 Mar 22-26 22-26 Sep 6-10 Nov 22-26 Jan
2 Dec
2020 2020 2021 May 2021 2021 2021 2022
2020
Labour Party 47% 46% 53% 49% 46% 43% 41% 40%
National Party 32% 31% 25% 27% 29% 26% 28% 32%
ACT Party 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 14% 14% 11%
Green Party 6% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8% 9% 9%
New Zealand
2.4% 2.6% 1.6% 1.8% 1.2% 2.5% 3.3% 1.8%
First
Māori Party 0.2% 0.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.8% 2.1% 0.9% 1.6%
The
Opportunities 1.8% 1.1% 0.5% 1.2% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.6%
Party
New
1.3% 1.5% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0%
Conservative
Aotearoa
Legalise
0.3% - - 0.4% - 0.3% 0.7% 0.8%
Cannabis
Party
Vision New
0.1% - - 0.1% - 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Zealand
NZ Outdoors
- - - 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Party

ONE Party 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% - - - 0.1%

Heartland NZ - - - - - 0.1% 0.4% -

Social Credit - - - - 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% -

TEA Party - - - - 0.2% - - -
Other - - 0.3% - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
TOTAL 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100% 100%* 100% 100%
Base (n=) 845 838 872 834 857 844 847 817
Based on probed party supporters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

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 1 NEWS Kantar Public Poll
Party Vote
60%

50%

40% Labour

National
30%

20%

ACT
10% Green

Māori
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

National Labour ACT Green Māori

Preferred Prime Minister
“Now thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime
Minister?” IF NO ONE: “Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”
28 Nov – 22-26
3-7 Oct 10-14 9-13 Mar 22-26 6-10 Nov 22-26
2 Dec May
2020 Oct 2020 2021 Sep 2021 2021 Jan 2022
2020 2021
Jacinda Ardern 50% 55% 58% 43% 48% 44% 39% 35%
Christopher Luxon 0.1% 0.2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 17%
David Seymour 2% 3% 4% 4% 6% 11% 11% 6%
Winston Peters 1% 1% 1% 0.7% 1% 0.7% 1% 1%
Chlöe Swarbrick 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% 2% 0.8% 2% 1%
Marama Davidson 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.6%
Simon Bridges 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 1% 2% 2% 1% 0.4%
Rawiri Waititi - - - - 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4%
John Key 0.4% 0.4% 1% 0.7% 1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4%
Mark Mitchell 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
Shane Reti 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% - 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
James Shaw 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2%
Judith Collins 23% 20% 12% 8% 9% 5% 5% 0.2%
Billy Te Kahika 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% - 0.1% - 0.2%
Nanaia Mahuta - - 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% - 0..1% 0.1%
Kelvin Davis - - - - - 0.1% - 0.1%
Chris Bishop - - - - 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Chris Hipkins - - 0.3% - - 0.1% - 0.1%
Stuart Nash - - - - - - - 0.1%
Grant Robertson - 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% - 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Hone Harawira - - - - - - - 0.1%
Steven Joyce - - - - - 0.1% - 0.1%
Leighton Baker 0.1% 0.4% - - 0.1% - - 0.1%
Andrew Bayley - - - - - - 0.5% -
Erica Stanford - - - - - 0.5% 0.3% -
Helen Clark - 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% - 0.1% 0.1% -
Andrew Little 0.1% - - - 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% -
John Tamihere - - - - - - 0.1% -
Todd Muller 0.1% - - - 0.2% - 0.1% -
Shane Jones - - - - - 0.1% 0.1% -
Phil Twyford - - - - 0.1% 0.3% - -
Bill English 0.2% - - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% - -
Other 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Don’t know 14% 12% 13% 27% 19% 21% 26% 28%
None 2% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 3% 3%
Refused 3% 4% 2% 6% 1% 3% 2% 2%
TOTAL 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%*
Base (n=) 1,007 1,005 1,004 1,006 1,002 1,001 1,001 1,000
Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

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 1 NEWS Kantar Public Poll
Preferred Prime Minister
70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
John Key David Shearer David Cunliffe Andrew Little
Bill English Simon Bridges Todd Muller Judith Collins
David Seymour Christopher Luxon Jacinda Ardern
Economic outlook
“And do you think during the next 12 months the economy will be in a better state than at present, or in a
worse state?”

3-7 Oct 10-14 Oct 28 Nov – 2 9-13 Mar 22-26 22-26 Sep 6-10 Nov 22-26 Jan
2020 2020 Dec 2020 2021 May 2021 2021 2021 2022
Better 48% 50% 50% 42% 43% 34% 29% 22%
Same 19% 18% 17% 29% 28% 29% 25% 29%
Worse 33% 32% 33% 29% 30% 37% 47% 49%
TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%* 100% 100%* 100%
Base (n=) 1,007 1,005 1,004 1,006 1,002 1,001 1,001 1,000
Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

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 1 NEWS Kantar Public Poll
Economic Outlook
100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Better Worse
Approval for Jacinda Ardern
“Do you approve or disapprove1of the way Jacinda Ardern is handling her job as Prime Minister?”

Total eligible New Zealand voters

16-20 May 23-27 Sep 10-14 Oct 22-26 Jan
5-9 Oct 2019
2020 2020 2020 2022
Approve 62% 86% 72% 74% 52%
Disapprove 29% 10% 22% 20% 37%
Don’t know / Refused 8% 4% 6% 6% 11%
Total 100%* 100% 100% 100% 100%
Nett approval (approve
+33 +76 +512 +553 +15
% minus disapprove %)
Base (n=) 1,008 1,003 1,005 1,005 1,000
Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to 100% due to rounding

Fifty-two percent of eligible voters approve of the way Jacinda Ardern is handling her job as Prime Minister,
compared to 37% who disapprove. A further 11% are unsure (or refused to answer). This gives Jacinda Ardern
a nett approval rating of +15. Nett approval is the proportion who approve of a politician minus those who
disapprove.

This is Jacinda Ardern’s lowest approval rating since it was first measured in the October 2019 Poll.

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (52%) to approve of how Jacinda Ardern is
handling her job as Prime Minister include:
• Labour Party supporters (90%)
• Wellington region residents (65%).

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (37%) to disapprove of how Jacinda Ardern is
handling her job as Prime Minister include:
• ACT Party supporters (78%)
• National Party supporters (64%)
• Those with a household income greater than $100,000 (46%)
• New Zealand Europeans (41%).

1The order in which the answer codes were read was reversed, so 50% of respondents heard “approve or disapprove” and
50% of respondents heard “disapprove or approve.”
2Please note the nett approval is +51, not +50, due to rounding. The full percentages are 72.4% approval and 21.6%
disapproval.

3Please note the nett approval is +55, not +54, due to rounding. The full percentages are 74.2% approval and 19.6%
disapproval.

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Approval of Christopher Luxon
“Do you approve or disapprove4 of the way Christopher Luxon is handling his job as leader of the National
Party?”

Total eligible New Zealand voters

Todd Christopher
Judith Collins
Muller Luxon
20-24 June 25-29 July 6-10 Nov 22-26 Jan
2020 2020 2021 2022
Approve 36% 50% 25% 42%
Disapprove 27% 23% 57% 20%
Don’t know /
37% 26% 18% 37%
Refused
Total 100% 100%* 100% 100%*
Nett approval
(approve %
+105 +27 -316 +22
minus
disapprove %)
Base (n=) 1,007 1,004 1,001 1,000
Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to 100% due to rounding

Forty-two percent of eligible voters approve of the way Christopher Luxon is handling his job as leader of the
National Party, compared to 20% who disapprove. A further 37% are unsure (or refused to answer). This gives
Christopher Luxon a nett approval rating of +22. Nett approval is the proportion who approve of a politician
minus those who disapprove.

Christopher Luxon’s approval rating is twice that of Todd Muller’s rating in the June 2020 Poll, after he became
leader of the party, and is more in line with that of Judith Collins’ when she took the reigns in July 2020.
However, Christopher Luxon’s rating compares much more favourably to Judith Collins’ most recent approval
rating in the November 2021 Poll. Judith Collins’ approval rating trended downwards throughout the time she
was leader of the National Party.

The high proportion who are unsure, demonstrates that Christopher Luxon has still a good deal of work to do
to ensure he is a recognised figure amongst eligible voters.

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (42%) to approve of how Christopher Luxon is
handling his job as leader of the National Party include:
• National Party supporters (79%)
• Those with a household income greater than $100,000 (57%)
• Men aged 35-54 (56%)
• ACT Party supporters (56%)

4The order in which the answer codes were read / shown was reversed, so 50% of respondents heard / saw “approve or
disapprove” and 50% of respondents heard / saw “disapprove or approve.”
5Please note the nett approval is +10, not +9, due to rounding. The full percentages are 36.3% approval and 26.7%
disapproval.
6Please note the nett approval is -31, not -32, due to rounding. The full percentages are 25.3% approval and 56.6%
disapproval.

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 • Asian New Zealanders (52%).

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (20%) to disapprove of how Christopher
Luxon is handling his job as leader of the National Party include:
• Green Party supporters (37%)
• Labour Party supporters (31%)
• Those with a household income up to $30,000 (28%).

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Price of housing in New Zealand
“Would you like to see the price of housing in New Zealand fall?”

Total eligible New Zealand voters

22-26 January 2022

Yes – a little 29%

Yes – a lot 47%

NETT YES 77%
No 18%

Don’t know 5%

TOTAL 100%*

Base (n=) 1,000

Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to 100% due to rounding

The majority of eligible voters (77%) would like to see the price of housing fall in New Zealand. Almost half
(47%) say they would like to see it fall ‘a lot’, while 29% would just like it to fall ‘a little’. Eighteen per cent do
not want a fall in the price of housing, while 5% are unsure.

The following groups of eligible voters are more likely than average (77%) to want to see the price of housing
fall (either a lot or a little):

• Green party supporters (96%)s

• Pacific peoples (92%)
• Women aged 18-34 (86%)
• Women aged 35-54 (83%)
• Labour party supporters (81%).

The following groups of eligible voters are more likely than average (47%) to want to see the price of housing
fall a lot:

• Green party supporters (80%)

• Pacific peoples (71%)
• Those with a household income of up to $30,000 (64%)
• Women aged 18-34 (61%)
• Māori (59%).

The following groups of eligible voters are more likely than average (29%) to want to see the price of housing
fall a little:

• National party supporters (39%)

• Those with a household income of more than $150,000 (38%).

The following groups of eligible voters are more likely than average (19%) to not want to see the price of
housing fall:

• ACT party supporters (28%)

• National party supporters (27%)
• Men aged 35-54 (26%)
• Those with a household income of more than $150,000 (26%).

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Three Waters Reform
“The Government made a decision in October 2021 to progress its Three Waters Reform. The reform impacts
the way in which our drinking water, wastewater and storm water services are managed in New Zealand. From
what you have heard so far, do you currently support or oppose7 the reforms?”

Total eligible New Zealand voters

22-26 January 2022

Support 26%

Oppose 40%

Haven’t heard of the Three Waters Reform 13%

Don’t know enough to make a decision 22%

TOTAL 100%*

Base (n=)
Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to 100% due to rounding

Around two thirds of eligible voters feel able to express an opinion on the Three Waters Reform. These voters
are more likely to oppose (40%) than support (26%) the reform. A further 35% are undecided either because
they have not heard of the reform (13%) or because they don’t know enough to express an opinion (22%).

The following groups of eligible voters are more likely than average (26%) to support the Three Water Reform:

• Labour party supporters (40%)

• Wellington region residents (37%)
• Asian New Zealanders (37%)
• Men aged 18-34 (35%).

The following groups of eligible voters are more likely than average (40%) to oppose the Three Water Reform:

• ACT party supporters (71%)

• National party supporters (62%)
• Bay of Plenty residents (59%)
• Upper South Island residents including Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough and West Coast (58%)
• Men aged 55+ (58%)
• Those with a household income of more than $150,000 (51%)
• Canterbury residents (50%)
• Women aged 55+ (49%)
• New Zealand Europeans (47%).

The following groups of eligible voters are more likely than average (35%) to be undecided about Three Water
Reform:

• Women aged 18-34 (52%)

• Asian New Zealanders (47%)
• Māori (46%)
• Women aged 35-54 (43%)
• Labour party supporters (41%).

7The order in which the answer codes were read / shown was reversed, so 50% of respondents heard / saw “support or
oppose” and 50% of respondents heard / saw “oppose or support.”

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Parliamentary seat entitlement
The following table shows the parliamentary seat entitlement according to the results reported in this poll. The
calculation assumes that Rawiri Waititi holds the seat of Waiariki.

Number of seats

Labour Party 51

National Party 41

ACT Party 14

Green Party 12

Māori Party 2

TOTAL 120

Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement

The St Laguë method is used by the Chief Electoral Officer at election time to convert the number of votes for
each party into the number of seats they get in Parliament.

It is applied to all the parties which are eligible, either by exceeding the 5% threshold or by winning at least
one electorate seat. More information about the St Laguë method can be obtained directly from the Electoral
Commission.

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