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Tata Chemicals by Kotak
Tata Chemicals by Kotak
Weak end to FY2021. TTCH reported weak results in 4QFY21 as recovery in soda ash CMP (`): 709
volumes to pre-Covid levels across India and the US was offset by a sharp decline in Fair Value (`): 540
margins amid lower realizations and higher costs. We find the risk-reward balance
BSE-30: 48,254
unfavorable and downgrade the stock to SELL with an unchanged FV of Rs540. The
lack of progress on foray in Li-ion battery value chain and no visibility on monetization
of 2.5% stake in Tata Sons, may reverse the recent speculative rally in the stock.
Tata Chemicals
Stock data Forecasts/valuations 2021 2022E 2023E
CMP(Rs)/FV(Rs)/Rating 709/540/SELL EPS (Rs) 10.7 31.8 36.3
52-week range (Rs) (high-low) 834-272 EPS growth (%) (66.4) 198.2 14.2
Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 181/2.5 P/E (X) 66.6 22.3 19.5
ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$) 5,752/78 P/B (X) 1.3 1.3 1.3
Shareholding pattern (%) EV/EBITDA (X) 11.0 7.6 6.9
Promoters 38.0 RoE (%) 2.0 5.7 6.5
FPIs/MFs/BFIs 14.0/8.7/12.0 Div. yield (%) 1.4 4.5 5.1
Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Sales (Rs bn) 102 118 130
Absolute (9.1) 33.8 152.1 EBITDA (Rs bn) 15 22 25
Rel. to BSE-30 (7.3) 40.6 64.3 Net profits (Rs bn) 3 8 9
Sharp decline in margins offsets recovery in volumes for India and the US to pre-Covid levels
Tata Chemical’s consolidated EBITDA declined sharply by 36% qoq to Rs2.8 bn in 4QFY21,
impacted by weakness in margins for soda ash amid—(1) lower realizations, (2) sharp spike in
power and fuel costs, partly due to surge in gas prices in North America during the polar storm
and (3) sequential increase in freight and other expenses. EBIT for specialty products (Rallis) was
negative at –Rs126 mn from Rs380 mn in 3QFY21 reflecting seasonal weakness, albeit up from
4QFY21 levels of –Rs368 mn. Adjusted net income declined 87% qoq to Rs177 mn (EPS of
Rs0.7); reported net income at Rs118 mn included an exceptional item of Rs165 mn relating to
a tax write-off for the UK operations. In FY2021, EBITDA declined 23% to Rs14.99 bn impacted
by Covid, while adjusted net income declined 67% to Rs2.67 bn further impacted by—(1) lower
other income, (2) higher depreciation and interest cost and (3) higher tax rate at 30.6% versus
17.7% in FY2020. Consolidated net debt increased marginally to Rs38.3 bn from Rs37.4 bn a
quarter ago, modestly lower than Rs40.4 bn a year ago. Capex for the year increased to Rs12.3
bn from Rs11.7 bn in FY2020. The Board recommended a dividend of Rs10/share.
Improving demand outlook for soda ash; no progress on Li-ion battery business
In 4QFY21 conference call, the management indicated—(1) the company has not finalized its
foray in the Li-ion battery business, other than the existing small-scale recycling plant; no
investments have been approved by the Board so far and any decision may be calibrated on
domestic demand, policy incentives and technology tie-ups, (2) optimism on recovery in soda
ash demand following normalization of export volumes from the US; prices and margins may
move up with a lag as contracts are reset to expected gradual increase in prices and (3)
guidance on 50-70% growth in revenues by FY2025 driven by capacity expansions underway
for salt, soda ash, sodium bi-carbonate and growth in nutraceuticals portfolio.
Cut estimates by 5%; downgrade to SELL with an unchanged FV of Rs540 Tarun Lakhotia
We reduce our FY2022-23 EPS estimates by 5% factoring in (1) lower margins, (2) higher
volumes and (3) other minor changes. Our SoTP-based Fair Value remains unchanged at Rs540 Hemang Khanna
based on March 2023 estimates. We downgrade the stock to SELL from ADD earlier noting an
unfavorable risk-reward balance. We find the recent rally in the stock price unwarranted in
anticipation of (1) value creation from foray into the Li-ion battery value chain in the medium
term despite no decision made by the company yet and (2) monetization of 2.5% stake in Tata
Sons, which seems unlikely given its strategic significance and lack of funding requirement for
Tata Chemicals amid a manageable leverage and adequate accruals to fund capex plans.
kspcg.research@kotak.com
Contact: +91 22 6218 6427
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Commodity Chemicals Tata Chemicals
Basic chemistry—volumes for India and the US recover to pre-Covid levels; weak
margins across geographies. Domestic revenues increased 4% qoq to Rs7.9 bn as 10%
qoq rise in soda ash volumes was partly offset by 5% qoq decline in salt volumes. EBIT
increased marginally by 1% qoq to Rs1.67 bn reflecting moderation in margins. Revenues
for North America increased 13% qoq on a low base to Rs8.07 bn reflecting strong
recovery in volumes to pre-Covid levels of 566,000 tons, while realizations declined 4%
qoq in US$-terms. EBITDA for the US operations declined sharply to Rs630 mn amid the
sharp spike in gas prices due to the polar storm, higher gas prices impacted results by
Rs450 mn. EBITDA adjusted for the impact of gas prices would have remained 17% lower
qoq reflecting higher other expenses. Revenues for the Europe operations increased 2%
qoq, while EBITDA declined sharply by 58% as higher realizations were offset by lower
volumes, higher freight costs and one-off costs related to the floods. Revenues from
African operations increased 7% qoq, while EBITDA declined 23% qoq impacted by 10%
qoq decline in realizations and higher other expenses. In FY2021, revenues for the basic
chemistry segment declined 5% yoy to Rs75.8 bn, while EBIT declined 46% yoy to Rs7.3
bn reflecting the sharp decline in profitability impacted by Covid-related disruption.
Exhibit 1: Interim consolidated results of Tata Chemicals, March fiscal year-ends (Rs mn)
(% chg.)
4QFY21 4QFY21E 4QFY20 3QFY21 4QFY21E 4QFY20 3QFY21 FY2021 FY2020 (% chg.) FY2022E
Net sales 26,362 24,987 23,781 25,789 6 11 2 101,726 103,568 (2) 117,760
O perating costs (23,535) (19,845) (19,779) (21,342) 19 19 10 (86,735) (84,076) 3 (95,651)
EBITDA 2,827 5,142 4,002 4,447 (45) (29) (36) 14,991 19,492 (23) 22,109
O ther income 645 779 756 427 (17) (15) 51 2,344 3,111 (25) 2,609
Interest cost (850) (800) (855) (809) 6 (1) 5 (3,674) (3,419) 7 (3,304)
Depreciation (1,916) (1,907) (1,739) (1,854) 0 10 3 (7,593) (6,665) 14 (8,080)
PBT 706 3,214 2,163 2,212 (78) (67) (68) 6,069 12,519 (52) 13,334
Tax (346) (700) (193) (538) (51) 79 (36) (1,813) (2,197) (17) (3,418)
Exceptionals (165) — — 272 (150) (80) —
PAT before MI 195 2,514 1,970 1,945 (92) (90) (90) 4,106 10,243 (60) 9,917
MI 78 305 123 337 (75) (37) (77) 1,542 2,257 (32) 1,823
PAT 118 2,208 1,847 1,609 (95) (94) (93) 2,564 7,986 (68) 8,093
Adjusted PAT 177 2,208 1,847 1,337 (92) (90) (87) 2,668 8,052 (67) 8,093
Adjusted EPS (Rs) 0.7 8.7 7.3 5.2 (92) (90) (87) 10.5 31.6 (67) 31.8
EBITDA margins (%) 10.7 20.6 16.8 17.2 (986)bps (610)bps (652)bps 14.7 18.8 (408)bps 18.8
Tax rate (%) 63.9 21.8 8.9 21.7 30.6 17.7 25.6
Segment sales
Basic chemistry products 21,113 19,987 19,594 6 8 75,817 80,137 (5) 87,407
Specialty products 5,196 3,776 6,183 38 (16) 25,800 23,289 11 30,205
Unallocated 67 28 55 224 242 (7) 269
Less: inter-segment 14 (9) (43) (257) (132) (87) (101) (13) (121)
Total sales 26,390 23,781 25,789 11 2 101,754 103,568 (2) 117,760
Segment profits
Basic chemistry products 1,672 3,544 2,709 (53) (38) 7,270 13,555 (46) 13,521
Specialty products (126) (368) 380 (66) (133) 2,093 1,669 25 3,539
Unallocated 11 158 (70) 379 714 (47) (422)
Total EBIT 1,722 3,334 3,020 (48) (43) 9,742 15,938 (39) 16,638
Segment margins (%)
Basic chemistry products 7.9 17.7 13.8 (981)bps (591)bps 9.6 16.9 (733)bps 15.5
Specialty products (2.4) (9.7) 6.2 732 bps (857)bps 8.1 7.2 95 bps 11.7
EBIT margin (%) 6.5 14.0 11.7 (749)bps (519)bps 9.6 15.4 (581)bps 14.1
Segment assets
Basic chemistry products 170,106 171,500 166,048 170,106 171,500
Specialty products 28,846 28,041 28,070 28,846 28,041
Unallocated 84,420 77,982 83,846 84,420 77,982
Total assets 283,372 277,522 277,965 283,372 277,522
Segment liabilities
Basic chemistry products 30,141 28,934 30,662 30,141 28,934
Specialty products 9,438 9,301 8,827 9,438 9,301
Unallocated 92,368 102,672 91,344 92,368 102,672
Total liabilities 131,946 140,908 130,832 131,946 140,908
Exhibit 5: We model a recovery for soda ash volumes and margins in FY2022-23E
Segment-wise assumptions, March fiscal year-ends, 2018-24E
Exhibit 7: Full value of Tata Chemicals’ 2.5% stake in Tata Sons could be worth Rs592/share, while
assuming 40% holding company discount on MTM value of listed entities
MTM value of stake in listed entities held by Tata Sons (Rs bn)
Exhibit 8: Consolidated profit model, balance sheet and cash flow statement for Tata Chemicals, March fiscal year-ends, 2018-24E (Rs mn)
Ratios
EBITDA margin (%) 21.3 18.5 18.8 14.7 18.8 19.2 19.4
Net debt/equity (X) 0.17 0.34 0.45 0.30 0.32 0.34 0.37
Book value (Rs/share) 436 484 506 561 561 561 562
RoAE (%) 10.3 9.3 6.4 2.0 5.7 6.5 7.8
RoACE (%) 12.8 9.2 6.9 4.0 7.4 8.2 9.5
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SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.
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