Risk-based Decision Making for Site Selection of
Desalination Plants: The Case Study of La Guajira
Desalination Plant, Colombia
Karen Bustamante
42003 – Engineering Graduate Project– Spring 2019
University of Technology Sydney, UTS
Sydney, Australia
13170408@studen.uts.edu.au
Abstract— Researches have been addressed to assess the
implementation of desalination plants worldwide, but almost
none has used risk analysis to determine the site selection of a
plant. Besides, none of those studies has been located in
Colombia. Although Colombia is surrounded by two (2) oceans -
the Atlantic and the Pacific-, it has one region that suffers issues
of water scarcity. This region is called La Guajira. This paper
proposes a methodology for making a site selection of a
desalination plant in La Guajira, Colombia. The risk-based
decision making is generated by a Bayesian Network, which is a
graphical probabilistic method for risk modeling and inference.
The Bayesian Network includes the main factors that affect the
feasibility of a plant - environmental, social, technical and
economic aspects- and generate a risk level for any specific area.
The assessment is done for four possible zones in La Guajira
helping with the selection of the most affordable place for
implementing the desalination plant. This technique can be used
for the risk analysis of other industry plants across other
geographical places.
Keywords—desalination plant, La Guajira, site selection, risk
assessment, Bayesian Network, NoisyOR gate
I. INTRODUCTION
Due to climatic change, population growth, unsustainable
water management practices, industrial development, and more
others, has appeared the increasing need of potable water
around the world and in some specific regions. Water scarcity
in arid and semi-arid areas has been solved through the
implementation of desalination plants. This technology´s
viability has been recognized since 2005, with a growth rate of
almost 55% per year (Ghaffour, Missimer & Amy 2013).
During the last fifty (50) years, scientists have researched
about desalination plants. These researches have resulted in
advanced techniques which have developed the way of
desalinating water and have made this process more cost-
effective and more efficient. The desalination process is and
will be in a future a necessary technique for generating potable
water from relatively low-quality water (Kucera 2014).
Around the world, there are many examples of the
implementation of desalination plants. For instance, Australia
implemented a desalination plant in 2007 in the west zone,
which produces fifty (50) billion liters of drinking water per
year for its metropolitan area (Golden Target Awards 2012). In
the same way, Israel started operations of the biggest
desalination plant worldwide in 2013; this plant provides
freshwater to 1.5 million people and its totally automatized
(Pallares 2017). Moreover, countries such as United States of
America (EEUU) and United Arab Emirates (UAE), use
renewable energies in the operation of their desalination plants,
which reduces environmental and economic concerns (El
Saliby et al. 2009)
Nowadays, Colombia - a country located in South America
- has not implemented large-desalination plants. This fact opens
the possibility to start to study the implementation of a
desalination plant in some regions or in a specific region of this
country, researching and acknowledging the possible concerns
regarding freshwater.
The implementation of a desalination plant in a region is a
matter that needs to evaluate several factors and to be aware
that there are various preconditions in the establishment of it.
One of the main issues to take into account is finding the
correct place to build the plant, being conscious of its
problems, such as environmental, economic and social aspects.
At present, many authors have studied the better manner to
select a location of desalination plants in different places
around the world, for instance in North-African coasts
(Andrianne & Alardin 2004), coastal areas of Iran (Sepehr et al.
2017) and Lybia (Badi et al. 2018).
The question that appears in this stage is whether it is
possible to replicate some author´s techniques in the evaluation
of a site selection of a desalination plant in another part of the
world or not, taking into account that it has not been studied.
As is mentioned earlier, the implementation of a desalination
plant is a broad topic that involves several studies and several
conditions to be met. The site selection is the first step that any
desalination project needs to assess, given its fundamental role
for all the stages involved in its execution: design, financing,
construction and operation (Tsiourtis 2018).
According to this, the aim of this research is to investigate a
possible location for the implementation of a desalination plant
in a region of Colombia and to select the site in which this plant
will be built. The principal objective is to develop a risk-based
decision making to water resources planners and managers to
1
choose an affordable location. In this sense, and knowing that
the driest zone of Colombia is a region called La Guajira, and
that one of the principal problems of this region is the scarcity
of fresh water, which has developed public health issues in the
inhabitants such as childhood mortality; this research will be
focused in a Risk-based Decision Making for Site Selection of
Desalination Plant in La Guajira, Colombia.
The rest of this paper is organized as follows: Section II
presents the literature review, including methodologies that
some authors, over the years, have adopted to select the
location of desalination plants worldwide; section III shows the
theory behind the Bayesian Networks; section IV indicates the
methodology that this research study followed to come up with
the results; section V indicates specifically the case study;
section VI implements the research methodology into the case
study; section VII presents the discussion about the results
found in the implementation; and finally, section VIII points
out the conclusions and possible future works, followed by
some acknowledgements and the references.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
The site for the implementation and installation of a
desalination plant is formed of inland and marine parts. This
location needs to comply with eight main conditions, so its
execution could be more affordable. In the first place, the plant
must be located in a site with access to the principal
components: energy and water supply, being economically and
technically feasible. Secondly, the size and geometry of the
land must be appropriate so that all the structures involved in
this type of plants can be optimally located, diminishing the
costs related to civil and electrical works. Thirdly, the marine
environment in the place needs to have an adequate quantity
and quality of feed water. Fourthly, the location needs to be the
one, so the final disposals of the plant cause minimal
environmental adverse effects. Fifthly, topographically and
geologically the place needs to be suitable for the construction,
minimizing the costs. Sixthly, all the regulations and law
requirements need to be accomplished, according to the country
or region where the plant is going to be seated. Seventhly, the
desalination plant has to be accepted by the community.
Finally, if there is an existing structure, it could be used, and
this must make cheaper the project implementation (Tsiourtis
2008).
Indeed, there are some limitations in the implementation of
a desalination plant, being more relevant the economic,
environmental and energy requirement issues. In order to
minimize financial and environmental costs, a possible solution
could be the co-location of desalination plants with existing or
proposed power plants (Hernandez, Uddameri & Arreola
2014). Knowing the location of the region of La Guajira,
Colombia, the implementation of renewable energies, such as
wind and solar, appears as a solution. In La Guajira, nowadays,
there are some projects addressed to implement renewable
energies, because of its strategic geographical position and its
weather and temperature. At present, there is a wind park that
generates electricity to La Guajira’s population.
On the other hand, to decide which location is most suitable
for the implementation of a desalination plant in La Guajira is
essential to recognize that there are different techniques to
select a site. Many authors have studied and implemented some
methods for finding the most suitable location of desalination
plants around the world. In the next paragraphs, there is a
recompilation of ideas and some researches regarding this
topic.
Andrianne & Alardin (2004) studied the selection of a
desalination site on North-African coasts by collecting basic
and essential data and establishing criteria, which was
evaluated by a multidisciplinary team. Each criterion had an
attributed factor or rating, enabling to give weights and to make
a final decision on site selection. Also, Banat, Subiela &
Qiblawey (2007) based their process of selecting a site for
desalination plants in the identification of data for the sites,
including aspects such as the environment, socio-economic
situation, available infrastructures and energy and water
resources. After the data collected, they proposed a data matrix
with indices, which helped to do a macro screening of the
possible regions and then a micro-screening of sites.
Afterwards, Tsiourtis (2008) proposed a procedure in which
the main idea was to set up a special committee. The functions
of this committee according to the author are: to prepare the
site selection criteria, to select the “potential sites” for the
implementation of the plant and then to select the most
potential one, to carry out the respective studies for the most
potential sites, to draft the Environmental Impact Assessment
Study (EIAS) and the Terms Of Reference (TOR), to invite and
to select the consultants for the EIAS, to approve the EIAS, to
prepare the final report on site selection study, to accept the site
selection study and finally to choose the definitive site.
Ghassemi & Danesh (2013) studied a two-step model, which
was developed on the fuzzy-AHP and The Technique for Order
of Preference by Similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method.
The first step analyzed and determined the weights of the
criteria, and with TOPSIS, they calculated the final ranking for
the selection.
Some authors, like Hernandez, Uddameri & Arreola (2014)
proposed a holistic multimedia impact evaluation, which is a
decision support system and an integrated system of a systems
approach. Then, Sepehr et al. (2017) applied the Delphi method
to identify optimal sites for implementing desalination plants in
the coastal areas of Iran. This method was based on the
literature review of intuitive expert´s opinions and in
mathematical equations.
Dweiri, Khan & Almulla (2018) developed a multi-criteria
decision support system (DSS) which ranks sustainable
desalination plants located in the United Arab Emirates. In their
research, they used an Analytical Hierarchal Process (AHP) to
prioritize and to recognize the selection criteria for the location
of desalination plants. This method gathers the opinions of
some experts, and it follows two principal phases: identification
and validation, and result and analysis. On the other hand,
Badi, Balle, & Shetwan (2018) based their selection on the
criterion of minimizing the water transportation costs and
considering the influence of the external criteria on the location
selection, so their assessment was done with the COmbinative
Distance-based ASsessment (CODAS) method. At the same
time, Badi et. Al (2018) proposed a site selection method based
on grey system theory for a desalination plant in Lybia. This is
a numerical method using grey numbers and countering
human´s inaccurate opinions.
In a different manner, authors as Cai, Wang & Xu (2015),
used a methodology called Monte Carlo optimization for site
selection of new chemical plants. By choosing common
selection rules, a risk assessment can be addressed for
candidate locations and thus, the optimization of the final site
selection can be achieved by minimizing those rules. In this
methodology, there are two steps: Monte Carlo simulation and
multi-objective Monte Carlo optimization. Knowing that this
2
technique has been applied in other fields, a simulation for Afterwards reviewing the literature, it was found that there
desalination plants can be done. are no studies regarding a risk-based decision making in a site
selection of a desalination plant. Likewise, all the literature
In TABLE I. there are some limitations and advantages of reviewed about desalination plants has not used risk assessment
the methods previously mentioned. nor decision trees. In this sense, this research will be focused
on the application of Bayesian Network (BN) to identify the
TABLE I. METHODS SUMMARY associated risks of a site selection.

Use
Method Limitations Advantages of III. THEORICAL BACKGROUND
risk
Some of the parameters
A. Bayesian Network
are measured with part This method presents A Bayesian Network (BN) is composed of arcs and nodes.
Andrianne & of subjectivity which weights used for each The nodes are the variables, and the arcs symbolize the
Alardin (2004) makes the participation criterion which can No relations between those variables. In this way, BN could be an
method of experienced help in further risk-
professionals based methodology
approach to see the causes and effects of a system. For each
compulsory node, there is a conditional probability table (CPT), which
It needs more represents how the nodes can influence each other according to
Banat, Subiela
participation of This can be a method the links. The principal feature of the BN is that it allows the
experienced that selects the best possibility to model and reason about uncertainties (Meyer &
& Qiblawey No
professionals so that the apparent site showing
(2007) method Reniers 2016).
site selection could be criteria
more realistic. Some of the advantages of the BN are the explicit and
It can give a guide to
This method is so sound representation of uncertainty, the visualization of the
which are the
general. It is a rational
environmental, causal process is a powerful reasoning engine, and it can be
method for the extended with decision and utility nodes.
Tsiourtis (2008) technical, economic
acceptable and objective No
method and social
studies acquired in a site
requirements to take BN is based on Bayes theory and Bayes’ Theorem, which
selection for a update prior probabilities or initial beliefs of data observed
into account for a site
desalination plant
selection from the case studied. The equation of Bayes’ Theorem is
For its selection, the shown below (Meyer & Reniers 2016):
This method was
authors needed to
developed to find the
Fuzzy-AHP & establish some
optimum desalination
TOPSIS method criteria which can be
technology between No P(Event  P( inf Event)
(Ghassemi &
some specific processes.
useful for finding the  P(Event inf )   
Danesh 2013) most important P( inf )
It is not focused on site
aspects in a site
selection.
selection.
This study was where:
developed for mingling
Holistic P(Event) : prior likelihood of an event.
an existing power plant This model shows
multimedia
(small hydroelectric how actions in one
impact
evaluation
power station) with a system can impact
No P (inf Event ) : probability function of the event.
desalination plant. In another
(Hernández,
addition, it considers interconnected P(inf) : likelihood of the data/information observed
Uddameri &
desalinate groundwater, system.
Arreola 2014) (evidence).
and no considers other
essential factors.
This method was P(Event inf) : posterior probability of the event.
ArcGIS is a useful
Delphi method developed using
tool for having a
(Sepehr et al. ArcGIS, which needs an
geographical control
No Therefore, it starts with a prior probability of the event, but
2017) extensive database to the point of interest is knowing what the posterior probability
of the region
deliver accurate results of the event is, given the data/information (“inf”). This can be
This method
AHP process This study was based on compares every achieved using Bayes’ Theorem (Meyer & Reniers 2016).
(Dweiri, Khan pairwise comparison and aspect involved in When a node has many parents or if each parent has a large
No
& Almulla also the data was site selection. It can
2018) limited. be applied in other number of values, the CPT can be extensive. Hence, CPT’s size
several regions. is exponential in the number of parents. Sometimes the BNs
CODAS method
The selection site criteria This method can be can turn complex; for this reason, specifics software can help to
(Badi, Balle &
in this research were easily developed in
No handle this situation. GeNIE is the software to use in this paper.
only to minimise MS Excel.
Setwan 2018)
transportation costs. The probabilities that have to be assigned to the variables in
As well as the previous the CPTs can be determined either by using statistical
study, the selection site information and historical data to calculate the probabilities or
The attributes used in
criteria were only to
Grey system
minimise transportation
this study are generic using expert’s opinion when there is not enough statistical
theory (Badi et so that it can be used No information. These two ways, objective and subjective, can be
costs, with few selection
al. 2018) in other cases with used in BNs.
criteria but with a more
minor modifications.
sophisticated method:
grey theory. The CPTs can be created according to the Boolean Gates,
Monte Carlo This method was It is the unique risk- including OR or AND gates. In both gates, OR or AND, the
methodology developed to select a based decision
Yes events have two states: Failure or Success. In an OR gate, there
(Cai, Wang & location for chemical making for a site
Xu 2015) plant selection approach
3
is only one possibility of having a success; meanwhile, in an show as a final result in which area is more suitable for
AND gate there is only one chance of having a failure. the implementation of the desalination plant in La
Guajira.
The number of independent entries, in the CPT, grows
exponentially with the number of nodes. For this reason, the  Sensitivity analysis: with the assistance of the software,
NoisyOR gate is a way of overcoming this scenario. The a sensitivity analysis can be done. Due to the values
NoisyOR gate is a generalization of the logical OR gate, in assigned are obtained from the literature and
which the CPTs can be more compact, and the original sometimes can be subjective, those values can change.
parameters can be condensed. Some casual relationships can be Once those values have a different weight, the software
modelled as an OR of the negation causes. When the number of can determine whether a change in them is significant
causes is k, the number of CPT entries is 2k, but with NoisyOR or not.
gates only k parameters are needed. Thus, the number of CPT
parameters grows linearly with noisy OR gate rather than V. CASE STUDY
exponential. When the NoisyOR gate is used, there have to be a
specification of weight values (between 0 and 1) for each sub- La Guajira is an arid region of Colombia, being the driest
factor; this value, in this case, is the probability that the sub- one with temperatures that vary from 35°C to 40°C (La
factor could be true if this particular main factor is true. Guajira’s Government 2013). It is located in the north,
Moreover, there is an additional value that is called leak value surrounded by the Atlantic Sea. Nevertheless, La Guajira´s
(between 0 and 1), which captures the amount of noise in the inhabitants do not have access to freshwater, which has carried
model and can be thought of other representing causes that are issues in public health and has limited its social and economic
not in the model (Fenton & Neil 2018). development (Serrano 2017). Fig. 1 shows in red La Guajira’s
localisation.
IV. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
This study is a risk-based decision making for site selection
of a desalination plant in La Guajira, Colombia, in this way the
proposed methodology is to find which are the factors that most
affect the feasibility of the site, so then it can be applied in the
case study. Then, the process to assess those risks are detailed
below:
 Main factor recognition: first of all, it is essential to
select which are those principal factors that most affect
the implementation of the desalination plant in the
region of study, since these may vary depending on the
country or area. Supporting this selection with the
previous studies in the field, the essential factors can be
identified. These factors are more general, for instance,
the environmental, social, and economic aspects.
 Sub-factor recognition: once the main factors are
identified, the main objective is to determine which are
those sub-factors that affect each principal factor. This
differentiation can be done with the help of the
previous literature review, as well.
 Bayesian Network: when the factors and sub-factors
are established, the BN is structured. It is possible to
determine which are going to be the nodes and which is
going to be the relationship between each node,
through the arcs. This BN is developed in software
called GeNie.
 Values assignation: after having a clear definition of
the factors and sub-factors that most affect a site Fig. 1. La Guajira’s Localization (Wikipedia 2019)
selection and having the BN, it is crucial to assign to
each sub-factor the values that represent which is the The area highlighted in red has an extension of 20,848 km2
risk for not accomplishing those terms. These values (La Guajira’s Government 2013), which is a big area to start to
are obtained by the gathering of information from the look at. In this sense, as a first criterion to narrow the selection,
different research papers, in this sense, can be this study will focus its attention on those areas that are near to
determined which factor is more critical than other or the sea, because the water supply is one of the most important
which factor has more risk when it is not fulfilled. limitations for the implementation of a desalination plant.
Having the values of the factors that are beneath in the Besides, when the plant is located near to the sea, the costs of
hierarchy, it can be found the values of the above pipelines are reduced, and the energy for the water extraction is
factors, and with it, the total risk of failure or success fewer. In this way, the next figure shows the area in which the
for the site selection. process of selection is going to be done.
 Risk analysis: according to the results obtained, the
risk analysis for specific regions can be done. This will
4
 TABLE II. ACTIVITIES RELATED TO COLOURS.

Colour Activity

Yellow Tourist beaches and harbours

Blue Fishing zone

Orange Borderline with Venezuela

Green Bays, coves and nature reserves

Black Unrestricted areas

Fig. 2. La Guajira’s Division (own elaboration).

Within those areas shown in Fig. 2, zone 7 is selected as the
area in which the desalination plant is going to be implemented.
In this zone, there is more concentration of inhabitants, thus
more access roads, which facilitate the implementation. In
addition, and taking into account Tsiourtis’ (2008)
recommendations, this site has energy and water supply, the
geometry and the size is appropriate to install all the required
structures, it has an adequate quantity of water because the
significant part is surrounded by sea and it has kilometres of
coast, so there are many possibilities to decide which is the
most affordable place for the final disposals.
Besides, within the zone 7, integrated systems of
desalination plants with renewable energies, such as wind or
solar energy, can be implemented, which converts this region in
a more environmentally acceptable option and with lower costs,
because the power consumption and the footprint are reduced.
This combination has been proposed by several authors
(Hernandez, Uddameri & Arreola 2014; Kucera 2014)
In this sense and narrowing the selection to the zone 7, it is
essential to recognise which are those daily activities that are
executed by the community in the coastal side, which has the
potential places to implement the desalination plant, due to the
closeness to the sea. In Fig. 3, is shown the perimeter of zone 7,
differentiating with colours the diverse activities that take place
in the coast. In TABLE II. is presented the meaning of each
colour.
As seen, there are four zones that do not have restrictions
for the implementation of the desalination plant. Having these
four zones, then the research methodology can be implemented.
VI. IMPLEMENTATION
According to the research methodology, there are several
steps to develop before selecting the location of the
desalination plant in La Guajira, Colombia. Bellow, those steps
are implemented.
A. Main factor recognition
In this step, the main factors have been identified from the
literature review. These factors are related to technical and
sustainability aspects, according to the specific region that the
plant is going to be implemented. The principal factors are
(Ghassemi & Danesh 2013; Sepehr et al. 2017; Dweiri, Khan &
Almulla 2018):
 Environmental aspect
 Social aspect
 Technical aspect
 Economic aspect
B. Sub-factor recognition
Within the main factors to consider in the implementation
of a desalination plant, there are sub-criteria involved. As well
as the primary factor recognition, the sub-factors are
established with the help of the literature review and according
to La Guajira needs. In TABLE III. those sub-aspects are
related (Andrianne & Alardin 2004; Banat, Subiela &
Qiblawey 2007; Ghassemi & Danesh 2013; Sepehr et al. 2017;
Dweiri, Khan & Almulla 2018).
TABLE III. MAIN FACTORS AND SUB-FACTORS

Main factors Sub-factors

Land and marine areas

Environmental aspect
Wastewater discharge

Population in surrounding areas

Fig. 3. Coastal perimeter delimitation plant (own elaboration). Population concentration

Land ownership (private or government)

Social aspect
Cultural heritage

People choice about desalination plant location

Political reasons

5
 the top event that is the site selection. Indeed, the NoisyOR
Main factors Sub-factors gate is the gate to be used in these three scenarios.

Renewable energy D. Values assignation

Seawater quality From the literature (Andrianne & Alardin 2004; Banat,
Technical aspect Quantity and quality of freshwater
Subiela & Qiblawey 2007; Ghassemi & Danesh 2013; Sepehr
et al. 2017; Dweiri, Khan & Almulla 2018), there are some
Technology selection values that can be associated to the risk of no accomplishing
Access roads
the sub-factors found, which affects the feasibility of the
implementation of the desalination plant. TABLE IV. shows
Construction cost the values associated with accomplishing the sub-factors and
Economic aspect Water transfer cost
no-accomplishing them.

The real cost of water and government subsidy TABLE IV. SUB-FACTORS VALUES

Probabilities [%]
C. Bayesian Network Main factors Sub-factors No
Accomplishing
According to the factors and sub-factors listed in TABLE Accomplishing
Land and marine
III. , the Bayesian Network is built. Fig. 4 shows the final Environmental areas
21,1 78,9
layout of the BN. With this Bayesian network, it can be aspect Waste water
determined the risk of failure of implementing a desalination 22,2 77,8
discharge
plant in La Guajira, Colombia. Population in
20,0 80,0
surrounding areas
Population
20,0 80,0
concentration
Land ownership
(private or 12,4 87,6
Social aspect government)
Cultural heritage 12,4 87,6
People choice about
desalination plant 15,0 85,0
location
Political reasons 12,9 87,1

Renewable energy 15,0 85,0

Sea water quality 11,8 88,2

Quantity and
Technical quality of 15,0 85,0
aspect freshwater
Technology
12,1 87,9
selection
Access roads 10,5 89,5

Construction cost 16,6 83,4

Economic Water transfer cost 15,9 84,1

Fig. 4. Bayesian Network for site selection of a desalination plant in La
Guajira, Colombia (own elaboration).
After having the network, the CPTs need to be created. For
this network and according to the complexity, there are going
to be different gates: OR, 2/3 OR and NoisyOR gate. For the
environmental aspect, it is simple because it only has two sub-
factors, so its gate is an OR gate, which means that to meet the
environmental aspect, its two sub-factors need to be
accomplished. Regarding the economic aspect, the 2/3 OR gate
is going to be used, so with two sub-factors no accomplished,
the economic aspect cannot be met.
In the social and technical aspect, the use of an OR gate is
not an option, because it would create too many entries to
complete, which is error-prone and tedious. Besides, the effects
of the sub-factors on the social and technical aspects are
independent. The aim is to quantify the impact of each sub-
factor on each aspect independently of considering all of the
combined states of the other sub-factors. This also occurs for
aspect Real cost of water
and government 18,0 82,0
subsidy
For instance, if the sub-factor “Land and Marine areas” is
met for a particular zone, then the probability of accomplishing
the environmental aspect, in the implementation of the
desalination plant, is 0.789%, and so on for the others sub-
factors.
Concerning the NoisyOR gates, it has to be specified the
leak value. In this case, it is assumed, for the social, technical
and top event, that this value is 0.1, which would be the
probability of no implementing the desalination plant if the
sub-factors are accomplished. In addition, for the top event
“Risk of failure of implementing a desalination plant”, the
weight values for each main factor are as shown in TABLE V.
These values are obtained from the literature (Dweiri, Khan &
Almulla 2018) and represent the probability of failure in the
implementation of the desalination plant, if specific main factor
is accomplished or not.

6
TABLE V. LIKELIHOOD OF MAIN FACTORS IN TOP EVENT plant in La Guajira, is going to be used to assess each of those
four zones, taking into account its particular conditions.
Likelihood of implementing the desalination plant if TABLE VI. shows which factors each zone accomplishes or
Main factors the X aspect is accomplished [%]
not.
No accomplished Accomplished
Environmental For the purpose of this paper, it is assumed that the
19,9 80,1
aspect government entities totally agree with the study of the
Social aspect 17,8 82,2 feasibility of the implementation of a desalination plant in La
Guajira, and regarding this agreement, they commit to back the
Technical aspect 21,9 78.1 project in front of the communities and with economic support,
Economic 20,9 79,1 such as money for the construction, money for the water
transfer costs and with government subsidies for the benefited
These values reveal that the aspects that most affect the communities.
feasibility of implementing a desalination plant, in order, are: TABLE VI. ACCOMPLISHMENT OR NOT OF FACTORS IN THE
technical, economic, environmental and finally social aspects. ZONES
Afterwards, those values are assigned to the Bayesian
Network created in GeNIe software, to determine the real
Zone Zone Zone Zone
feasibility of implementing the plant. Fig. 5 shows the results Main factors Sub-factors
1 2 3 4
for a case when no evidence is available yet.
Land and marine
Y Y N N
Environmental areas
aspect Wastewater
Y Y N N
discharge
Population in
Y Y Y Y
surrounding areas
Population
Y N N N
concentration
Land ownership
(private or Y Y N N
Social aspects government)
Cultural heritage N N N N
People choice
about desalination N N N N
plant location
Political reasons Y Y Y Y

Renewable energy Y Y Y Y

Seawater quality Y Y N N
Quantity and
Technical quality of Y Y N N
aspects freshwater
Technology
Y Y Y Y
selection
Access roads Y Y N Y
Fig. 5. Results of Bayesian Network for site selection of a desalination plant Construction cost Y Y Y Y
in La Guajira, Colombia (own elaboration).
Economic Water transfer cost Y Y Y Y
According to Fig. 5, as is expected, when there is still no aspect Real cost of water
evidence, the implementation of the desalination plant is a fact. and government Y Y Y Y
It means that the probability of no execution of a desalination subsidy
plant in La Guajira is 25%.
Y: Accomplished
N: Not accomplished
E. Risk analysis
According to the case study, there are four zones within La In this sense, it is going to be an assessment with BN for the
Guajira that do not have restrictions for the implementation of case of each zone. The figures below show the BN for each
the desalination plant. Nevertheless, in those zones, there are region, indicating which one is more affordable for the
some principal and secondary factors that cannot be met. For implementation of the desalination plant, according to its
this reason, the BN created for site selection of a desalination accomplishment or not of the main factors and sub-factors.

7
Fig. 6. Results BN for assessment in Zone 1
Fig. 8. Results BN for assessment in Zone 3

Fig. 7. Results BN for assessment in Zone 2.

Fig. 9. Results BN for assessment in Zone 4

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 In the next table are shown a summary of the results
obtained for each zone and which is the probability of having
success in implementing a desalination plant or not.
TABLE VII. SUMMARY OF RESULTS

Probability
Zones Implementing desalination No implementing desalination
plant [%] plant [%]
1 73 27

2 68 32

3 46 54

4 59 41

Therefore, zone 1 is considered to have the lowest risk of

implementing a desalination plant with a likelihood of 27%
of failure. Afterwards, zone 2 and zone 4 have probabilities
of failure of 32% and 41%, respectively. The region with a
higher risk of no success is zone 3 with 54% of failure in
implementing a desalination plant.

Sensitivity analysis
For this analysis, the leak value is going to be changed in Fig. 11. Results BN, leak value 0.15 (no evidence case)
the social and technical aspect and the top event, in the case
of no evidence. For the risk analysis, this value was 0.1, but
TABLE VIII. PROBABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH LEAK VALUE
now there are going to be two more analyses, with a value of (NO EVIDENCE CASE)
0.05 and a value of 0.15.
Probability
Leak
Value Implement Desalination Do not implement
plant Desalination plant
0.10 75% 25%

0.05 81% 19%

0.15 70% 30%

The results show that there is not a significant change in

the probabilities of failure or success. Likewise, another
attempt is going to be assessed for the case in which the
desalination plant is more likely to be implemented, with a
probability of 73% of success.

Fig. 10. Results BN, leak value 0.05 (no evidence case)

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 Probability
Leak
Value Implement Desalination Do not implement
plant Desalination plant
0.15 68% 32%

From both sensitivity analysis, the behaviour of the

probabilities is the same. When the leak value increased 5%,
the risk of failure also increased, and in the same way, when
it decreased, the risk of failure increased as well.

VII. DISCUSSION

Fig. 12. Results BN, leak value 0.05 (zone 1)
F. Zone 1
Since the data shown in TABLE VI. , it is expected that
the implementation of the desalination plant is affordable in
this zone. The results shown in Fig. 6 agree with this
predictions because there is a 73% probability that the plant
could be implemented with the accomplishment of almost all
the factors, excluding the cultural heritage and the people
choice about desalination plant location. These two factors
are directly related because La Guajira is the region with the
largest indigenous settlement in Colombia, with 48% of its
population being Wayuu community (Wayuu, sand people,
sun and wind 2010). These two factors are not accomplished
in the other zones as well, because the Wayuu Community is
not the only indigenous people that live in La Guajira. La
Guajira is a multilingual and multicultural region, that has
five indigenous groups, such as Wayuu, Kinqui, Ika, Kogui
and Wiwa. Even when two of the social aspects are not
accomplished, but the rest of the parameters are met, as BN
showed, the desalination plant can be built in this zone.

G. Zone 2
As said for Zone 1, Zone 2 does not meet either the two
social aspects regarding the indigenous settlements. Added to
this, in zone 2, the concentration of population is less, which
makes that an implementation of a desalination plant in this
zone does not meet the entire social aspect. Regardless of the
not accomplishment of the social point, the construction of
the desalination plant still could be done with a 68%
likelihood. The social feature is not enough to stop the
project in this zone. Indeed, the desalination plant can be
built in this zone of La Guajira, as well.

C. Zone 3
Due to the geographical position and the length of the
zone 3, the land marine areas and the wastewater discharge
are not suitable for the implementation of a desalination
Fig. 13. Results BN, leak value 0.15 (zone 1) plant. First of all, this zone is too near to Venezuela, which
can bring issues if the final disposals of the desalination plant
TABLE IX. PROBABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH LEAK VALUE arrive at Venezuela’s territory. In addition, there is a bay also
(ZONE 1) near, and if the disposals are dammed there, it could have
considerable affectations to the marine flora and fauna.
Probability Besides, one of the criteria is that the space, meaning the size
Leak
Value Implement Desalination Do not implement and the geometry, of the land have to be appropriate to settle
plant Desalination plant all the structures needed. These reasons make that the
0.10 73% 27% environmental aspect in zone 3 cannot be accomplished. In
0.05 78% 22%
the same sense, the technical characteristics cannot be met

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because its position cannot warrant the quality of the water
and the quantity. Another element that makes unaffordable
the implementation of the desalination plant in this zone is
the issue regarding the access roads; this area does not have
good accessibility neither primary roads nor secondary. On
the other hand, in the social aspect happens the same as for
the zone 2, adding that in this zone there is no presence of
private or government land ownership; this zone is entire of
the indigenous community.
In conclusion, the environmental, social and technical
aspects are not accomplished. According to this, there is a
54% probability that the desalination plant in zone 3 cannot
be built.
D. Zone 4
Zone 4 does not meet the environmental and social aspect
for the same reasons as zone 3. Besides, this zone has a short
length and in this one is more notorious the problem
regarding the closeness to Venezuela. The seawater cannot
be enough and maybe contaminated because of Venezuela´s
activities related to oil, which affects the technical process of
the desalination of the water. Also, there is the issue of the
final disposals on Venezuela’s coast. The land where is
located is totally from the indigenous communities, and the
concentration of them is not that high. So, for zone 4, there is
a 59% likelihood that the plant can be implemented.
Sensitivity analysis
Regarding the sensitivity analysis and the change of the
leak value, it can be noticed that this value does not affect in
a drastically manner the results of the risk of implementing a
desalination plant in La Guajira. Thus, it is not determinant
in the final results of the assessment of the site selection of
the desalination plant nor the risk-based decision. This value
does not determine if the plant can be implemented or not,
because it does not change in a significant manner the
probabilities.
With a leak value of 0.05, the probability of
implementing the desalination plant if the sub-factors are not
accomplished is 5%. In the same sense, with a leak value of
0.15, the likelihood of no implementing a desalination plant
if all the sub-factors are met is 15%. This sensitivity analysis
showed that with a change of 10%, the plant still can be
implemented and it just varied from 10%-11% from the
lowest value until the highest one.
To conclude with the discussion of the results, it can be
said that these results are subject to the data and information
that the researcher has of the regions of study; and the
requirement of a multi-disciplinary committee is almost
compulsory. Moreover, in this type of projects, it is
indispensable the will of the government to carry out these
plans of development that has such magnitude because it
involves efforts in many aspects. It requires technical and
environmental studies, also engagement with the
communities and undoubtedly, many economic resources. At
the final stage, is the client who selects the last location of
the project, but this technique can certainly help managers to
make that decision.
VIII. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORKS
Desalination is one of the new alternatives for water
development, and the site selection is one of the most
important tasks to be reached at the feasibility stage of this
type of projects. This study was elaborated for that purpose,
by trying to fulfil the environmental, technical, social and
economic aspects in implementing a plant in La Guajira,
Colombia. By using a Bayesian Network as a method of risk-
based decision making analysis, the assessment showed
which zone is the most affordable region to implement a
desalination plant in the case study. This area is zone 1, with
a risk of failure of 27%. Besides, this technique demonstrated
that the zone with a higher risk of failure in implementing a
plant is zone 3 with 54%. The plant can be built in zone 2
and 4, as well, but with lower probabilities of success. This
study is the first in its type since the literature review
exhibited that none research, of site selection of desalination
plants, has been assessed through risk methodologies. In this
sense, there is still much work to do. There are several risk
assessment methodologies, such as Fault Tree Analysis
(FTA), Event Tree Analysis, Bow Tie analysis (BT) and
Monte Carlo optimizations, that can be addressed to analyse
site selection of a plant. Besides in future this study can be
done with more complex BN, taking into account more main
factors and sub-factors; and also can be assessed with
different values of risk, obtained from the literature or
gathering more information over the world. And finally, this
methodology can be implemented in other regions of
Colombia or even in South America.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The author gratefully acknowledges the University of
Technology Sydney (UTS), as well as Dr Mohsen Naderpour
for his valuable advice. Also, the author wants to thank her
husband for his priceless support during this time.
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