Unit 2: Probability - Key

Work for Sept. 23/24 starts here:

Tossing a Die

Toss a die 20 times and record the results.

Sample results…

Number Total Ratio Decimal Percent

1 3 3/20 0.15 15%

2 3 3/20 0.15 15%

3 4 4/20 0.2 20%

4 1 1/20 0.05 5%

5 6 6/20 0.3 30%

6 3 3/20 0.15 15%

Questions:

1. Find the probabilities using your data.

a. P(1) = 0.15 b. P(even) = 0.15+0.05+0.15 = 0.35

c. P(1 or 3) = 0.15+0.2 = 0.35 d. P(not 4) = 1-0.05 = 0.95

e. P(prime) = 0.15+0.2+0.3 = 0.65 f. P(greater than 2) = 1 – (0.15+0.15) = 0.7

2. Are your probabilities the same as your classmates?

unlikely

3. How could you find better approximations to the actual probabilities?

more tosses

You were able to answer the questions above because of what you learned in middle school and common
sense. Let’s add some formal vocabulary to the phenomenon of probability.

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The Vocabulary of Probability

Probabilities can be empirical or theoretical. The empirical method was just illustrated in your “tossing a
die” activity. The ratios are experimental or empirical probabilities. The probability is the observed
relative frequency with which an event occurs.

The theoretical probability for finding the probability of an event uses sample spaces. For example, when
you toss a die there are six possible outcomes. If the die is fair, they are all equally likely to occur. The
set S of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called the sample space. In this example, the sample
space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Any subset of a sample space is called an event, E. In this example, the event
of “tossing a prime number” is the set {2, 3, 5}. In a sample space with equally likely outcomes, the

probability of an event of a sample space is defined as or the probability of an event is

the number of outcomes in the event divided by the number of outcomes in the sample space. So, the
theoretical probability of tossing a prime number is ½.

Probability measures how likely it is for an event to occur. The probability of an impossible event is 0.
The probability of a certain event is 1. All events have probabilities between 0 and 1, inclusive. Consider
an experiment that has one or more possible outcomes.

Suppose you toss two dice. The event we wish to consider is the sum of the numbers shown on the dice.
Tables help us organize sample spaces and outcomes. It is the first of three organizational tools that we
will use.

Note in this example, there are 36 outcomes in our sample space.

1 2 3 4 5 6
1. Complete the 6 by 6 array that shows the sum on
each roll.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
How many different sums are possible? 11 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Are the sums equally likely? no
4 5 6 7 8 9 10

5 6 7 8 9 10 11
2. Here are examples of 3 different events related to the dice
toss. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
E = {the sum of the dice is a prime number}
F = {the two dice show the same number}
G = {the sum is odd}

Use the table you completed to find the probability of each event listed above.

a. P(E) = 15/36 b. P(F) = 6/36 c. P(G) = 18/36

d. What is the probability that E does not occur? This is called the complement of E and is denoted EC.

1 – 15/36 = 21/36

Another application that uses tables to organize outcomes in a sample space can be found in Biology.

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Extra Practice: A Biology Application of Probability
Biologists use a Punnett Square to predict the gene combinations that are possible for an offspring when
the genes of the parents are known. Each parent organism has two (homologous) chromosomes, each
with a copy of a gene, or allele, for a particular trait. For example, a parent might have the genotype Bb
for dimples. A capital B represents the dominant trait, which is having dimples. A lowercase b represents
the recessive trait, which is not having dimples.
a. Both parents contribute one allele to their offspring. For example, if both parents have the
genotype Bb, an offspring could inherit the genotype of BB with each parent contributing one
dominant B allele. What are the other possible combinations?
Bb, bB, bb (while in Biology it may only be appropriate to list the uppercase letter first, we list
them this way to show that we are counting Bb and bB separately.)

b. This information can be displayed in a Punnett Square. Each side of the square B b
represents the genotype of one parent. The Punnett Square for the offspring of the
parents who both have the genotype Bb is shown at the right. If the dominant allele is B BB Bb
present it will be the trait that appears. What is the probability that this offspring will b bB bb
not have dimples? 1/4

c. Create a Punnett Square to show the possible gene

combinations for the offspring if one parent has the
genotype Bb and the other has the genotype BB.

d. What is the probability that the offspring of parents with Bb

and BB will have dimples?
1 because all offspring have at least one B.

e. You can show more complicated crosses when you consider two or more genes that are
independent of each other. For example, pea pods can either be round (R) or wrinkled (r),
yellow (Y) or green (y). What are the possible combinations of shape and color?
RY, Ry, rY, ry

RY Ry rY ry
f. Complete the Punnett
Square to show the RY RRYY RRYy RrYY RrYy
possible gene Ry RRYy RRyy RrYy Rryy
combinations for the pea
pods: rY RrYY RrYy rrYY rrYy
ry RrYy Rryy rrYy rryy

g. What is the probability that a pea pod with both parents RrYy will be round and yellow? In other
words, what is the probability that there is an R and a Y present? 9/16

h. What is the probability that a pea pod with both parents RrYy will be wrinkled and yellow? 3/16

i. What is the probability that a pea pod with both parents RrYy will be wrinkled and green? 1/16

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Trees and Venn Diagrams

A second organizational tool in probability is a tree diagram. It is most helpful when there is a sequence
of events. Suppose a student tosses a coin three times. First, determine the sequence of events. In this
case, it is the 1st toss, 2nd toss, and then the 3rd toss. Use the tree to show the possible outcomes. Because
the branch segments are equally likely, we can determine the probabilities by simply counting.

Example:
a. What is the probability that there are
exactly 2 heads? 3/8

b. What is the probability of at least 2

heads? 4/8

c. What is the probability of no

heads? 1/8

d. What is the probability of at most 2

tails? 1 – 1/8 = 7/8

Exercises:

1. There are three bags containing chips. The first has chips labeled 1, 2, 3, and 4. The second has chips
labeled 1, 2, and 3. And, the third has chips labeled 1 and 2. You choose one chip from bag 1, then one
from bag 2, and then one from bag 3. Draw a tree diagram illustrating this situation. Then answer the
questions that follow.

a. What is the probability of just one 2 in the outcome? 11/24

b. What is the probability of at least one 3 in the outcome? 12/24

c. What is the probability that the sum of the outcomes is greater than 7? 4/24

d. What is the probability that the sum of the outcomes is prime? 11/24

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2. A box contains one each of $1, $2, $5, $10 and $20 bills. Two bills are chosen at random WITHOUT
REPLACEMENT. Use a tree diagram to find the sample space. Then answer the questions that follow.

a. What is the probability of choosing a bill worth at least $2? 1

b. What is the probability of choosing the $1 and $2 bill? 2/20

c. What is the probability of having a total of at least $10? 14/20

d. What is the probability of having a total of at most $20? 12/20

3. Jon has asked his girlfriend to make all the decisions for their date on her birthday. She will pick a
restaurant and an activity for the date. Jon will choose a gift for her. The meal choices include tacos,
noodles, and pizza. The activities she can choose from are Putt-Putt, bowling, and movies. Jon will buy
her either candy or flowers.

How many outcomes are there for these three decisions? Draw a tree diagram to illustrate the choices.
18 outcomes

The costs are listed in the table below. Answer the following questions based on your tree diagram and
chart.

Dinner Cost Activity Gift Cost

Cost
Tacos $20 Putt-Putt $14 Candy $10
Noodles $25 Bowling $10 Flowers $20
Pizza $15 Movies $20

a. If all the possible outcomes are equally likely, what is the probability that the date will cost
at least $50? 9/18

b. What is the probability that the date costs exactly $60? 1/18

c. What is the probability that the date costs under $40? 2/18

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A third method of displaying information about sample spaces is the use of Venn diagrams. Venn
diagrams are most helpful when a probability question provides information about the events in the form
of the probability of the various events, the number of items per set, or the percentage of each set.

A Venn Diagram is made up of two or more circles. It is often used in

probability to show relationships between events.
S

Rectangle ‘S’ represents a sample space of possible outcomes. It’s

A B
also referred to as the universe.

Circles ‘A’ and ‘B’ each represent specific events in the sample
space S.

There are three terms to remember when dealing with probability and Venn diagrams.
 The English word not involves complements and is designated AC or A’. In probabilistic terms,
interest centers on the probability that an event will fail to occur.
 The English word and involves set intersection. Probabilistic problems with this word include
the probability of the events overlapping or the events being in common. An intersection is
designated with .
 The English word or involves set union. Probabilistic problems with this word include the
probability of both events occurring meaning an event is in one set, the other set, or both sets. An
intersection is designated with .

1. We will begin by looking at a Venn diagram with values filled in. Suppose 100 students are asked
what sports they participate in. Use the diagram to answer the questions below. Suppose that the event of
playing basketball is represented with B, the event of participating in track is represented with T and the
event of swimming is represented with S.

a. How many total students are represented in the

diagram? 100

b. What is the probability that the students participate

in sports? 1 – 14/100 = 86/100

c. How many people participate in all three sports?

So, what is 7/100

d. How many people participate in basketball? In track? So, what is ?

(18+11+7+8+24+1)/100 = 69/100

e. How many people do not participate in basketball or track? So, what is ?

1 – 69/100 = 31/100

f. Find Find

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 P(T and S) = 8/100, P(T and S)C = 1 – 8/100 = 92/100
2. Draw a Venn diagram illustrating the following information. Then answer the questions that follow.
One hundred ninth graders were asked if they liked math, science, or tech. Everyone answered that they
liked at least one.
 56 like math
 18 like math and science
 43 like science
 10 like science and tech
 35 like tech
 12 like math and tech
 6 like all three subjects.

Diagram:

a. How many people like math only? 32

b. How many students like science only? 21

c. If one person is chosen at random, find 18/100

d. If one person is chosen at random, find (12+21+6+4+6+19)/100 = 68/100

e. If one person is chosen at random, find the probability that the person will NOT like science. Express
this in mathematical notation.
P(s)C = 1 – 43/100 = 57/100

f. If one person is chosen at random, what is the probability that the person will like math but NOT tech.
Express this in mathematical notation.

P(M and TC) = 44/100

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Rather than using actual counts in the Venn Diagram, it is possible to report probabilities. Consider the
following example.

Example 1: In the parking lot of a large mall 64% of cars are foreign F B
made, 12% are the color blue, and 7.7% are blue and foreign made
cars. The Venn diagram representing this information is shown at the
right. What is the probability that a randomly selected car was:
.563 .077 .043
a. A foreign car or a blue car? .317
P(F B) =0.563 + 0.077 + 0.043 = 0.683

b. Not a foreign car and a blue car? P(FC ∩ B) = 0.043

0.077
c. A foreign car if it was blue? =0.6417
0.077+0.043

0.317
d. Not blue if it was not a foreign car? =0.8806
1−.64
Likewise, a tree diagram, when labeled, has the probabilities needed for multiplying listed along the
branch representing the required probability.

Example 2: Suppose Kathy is flying from San

Francisco to Washington, D. C., with a
connection in Chicago. The probability that her
first flight leaves on time is 0.15. If the flight
is on time, the probability that her luggage will
make the connecting flight in Chicago is 0.95,
but if the first flight is delayed, the probability
that the luggage will make it is only 0.65. The
tree diagram representing this event is pictured
at the right with the probabilities labeled along
the branches.

a. What is the probability that Kathy is late and

her luggage does not arrive?

b. What is the probability that Kathy’s luggage

arrives in Washington, D. C. with her?

Solutions:

a. P(Kathy is late and luggage does not arrive) = 0.85(.35) = 0.297 or 0.298

b. P(Luggage arriving in D. C.) = P(on time and luggage makes connection) + P(not on time and luggage
makes connection) = (0.15)(0.95) + (0.85)(0.65) = 0.695

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Extra Practice: Trees and Venn Diagrams Homework

1. Because of the harsh winter weather in recent years, homeowners turned to supplementary methods of
conserving energy—adding insulation to the home, closing off part of the home, or making use of
alternate sources of heat such as wood stoves and fireplaces. In one small town it is estimated that

30% of all homeowners added insulation

40% closed off part of their homes
35% made use of alternate heat sources
12% added insulation and made use of alternate heat sources
15% added insulation and closed off part of their homes
13% closed off part of their home and made use of alternate heat sources
5% utilized all three measures.

a. Draw a Venn diagram illustrating this situation.

b. If a homeowner is selected at random, find the probability that the homeowner

i. utilized exactly 1 energy-conserving measure.

0.08+0.17+0.15 = 0.4

ii. utilized exactly two of three measures

0.10+0.07+0.08 = 0.25

iii. utilized none of the measures

0.3

iv. added insulation but did not close off part of the home.

0.08+0.07 = 0.15

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2. Common sources of caffeine are coffee, tea, and soda. Suppose that

55% of adults drink coffee

25% of adults drink tea
45% of adults drink soda

and also that

15% drink both coffee and tea

5% drink all three beverages
25% drink both coffee and soda
5% drink only tea

a. Draw a Venn diagram marked with this

information.

b. Use the Venn diagram you created to

determine what percent of adults drink only soda.
15%
c. Use the Venn diagram you created to determine
what percent of adults drink none of these
beverages.
20%

3. Ramon has applied to both Princeton and Stanford. He thinks the probability that Princeton will admit
him is 0.4, the probability that Stanford will admit him is 0.5, and the probability that both will admit him
is 0.2.

a. Make a Venn diagram with the probabilities given marked.

b. What is the probability that neither university admits Ramon?

0.3

c. What is the probability that he gets into Stanford but not Princeton?
0.3

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4. Suppose that Alice, Bob, and Carol are running for president of the Math Club. Alice has a 0.45
probability of being elected, while Bob has 0.35 probability and Carol has a 0.2 probability of being
elected. Sue and Ted are the candidates for vice president. If Alice becomes president, the probability is
0.7 that she will choose Sue as her vice president. If Bob becomes president, the probability that he will
choose Sue is 0.4, while if Carol becomes president, the probability is 0.6 that she will choose Sue.
a. Make a tree diagram that represents the given information.

b. What is the probability of the Bob-Sue combination? 0.35(0.4) = 0. 14

c. What is the probability that Sue will become Vice President?
0.45(0.7) + 0.35(0.4) = 0.2().6) = 0.575
d. What is the probability that at least one man is an officer?
0.45(0.3) + 0.35 + 0.2(0.4) = 0.565

5. In 2011, 12% of Americans over 40 owned an electronic reader (other than their phones) of some sort.
Suppose that 43% of people with e-readers read at least 3 books last year, while among people without an
e-reader, only 11% read 3 or more books during the year.

a. Make a tree diagram illustrating this scenario including probabilities along the branches.

b. Find the probability that a randomly selected American over 40 has read 3 or more books in the last
year.

0.12(0.43) + 0.88(0.11) = 0.148

c. Find the probability that a randomly selected American over 40 years hasn’t read 3 books.

0.12(0.57) + 0.88(0.89) = 0.851 or 0.852

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6. The Adams’ restaurant specializes in beef, chicken, and seafood. Of its customers, 32% order beef and
41% order chicken. Of those who order beef, 73% also order dessert. Of those who order chicken, 62%
also order dessert. If 65% of the customers order dessert, what is the probability that someone who orders
seafood will also order dessert?

1 – (.41 + .32) = .27 73% dessert 0.234

beef

Let D, C, S and B = event customer orders 32% 27% no dessert 0.086

dessert or chicken or seafood or beef,
dessert
respectively 62% 0.254
41%
chicken

Then 27%
38% no dessert
0.156
→ .65 = (.41)(.62) + + (.32)(.73) dessert
→ .65 = .2542 + + .2336 seafood

→ = .1622/.27 = .6007 no dessert

Empirical Probability vs. Theoretical Probability

At the beginning of the unit, you rolled a die 20 times and based the probabilities that you calculated on
the results of those rolls. The first probability that you calculated was P(1). If the die is fair, each
outcome is equally likely so the P(1) should be 1/6. This is the theoretical probability. Did you achieve a
probability of 1/6? Did your classmates? What if you combined your results with those of your
classmates? Would the probability be 1/6?

No, probably not, but it would be closer!

Comparison of Probability and Statistics (Elementary Statistics by Johnson and Kuby, 2012).

Probability and statistics are two separate

but related fields of mathematics. It has
been said that “probability is the vehicle of
statistics.” That is, if it were not for the
laws of probability, the theory of statistics
would not be possible.

Let’s illustrate the relationship and difference between these two branches of mathematics by
looking at two boxes. We know that the probability box contains five blue, five red, and five
white poker chips. Probability tried to answer questions such as “If one chip is randomly drawn
from this box, what is the chance that it will be blue?” On the other hand, in the statistics box we
don’t know what the combination of chips is. We draw a sample and, based on the findings in
the sample, make conjectures about what we believe to be in the box. Note the difference:
Probability asks you about the chance that something specific, like drawing a blue chip, will
happen when you know the possibilities (that is, you know the population). Statistics, on the
other hand, asks you to draw a sample, describe the sample (descriptive statistics), and then
make inferences about the population based on the information found in the sample (inferential
statistics).

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Work for Sept. 27-29 starts here:
Activity 11-1: Random Babies

You will be conducting a simulation. Copy the definition from p 226.

Artificial representation of a random process used to study the process’ long-term properties.

a. Follow instructions in the textbook on page 226.

b. “Deal” babies five times, recording in each case how many mothers received the correct baby.
Sample deals:
Number of
Johnson Miller Smith Williams
Matches
1st Deal yes no no no 1
2nd Deal yes no no no 1
3 Deal
rd
no yes yes no 2
4th Deal no no no yes 1
5th Deal no no yes yes 2
Sample results:
Deal/Trial: 1 2 3 4 5
Number of Matches: 1 1 2 1 2

Submit your results to the data collection spreadsheet.

c. Using 20-30 values from the spreadsheet, combine your results sequentially with those of your
classmates. The book has directions for how to complete this table, but you should insert a table and
complete the calculations described in Activity 11-1 in the book: Below is a sample table:

d.
Construct a graph of the cumulative proportion of trials with at least one match vs. the
cumulative number of trials. Based on sample given:

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e. Does the proportion of trials that result in at least one mother getting the right baby fluctuate more at the
beginning or at the end of this process? The proportion of trials that result in at least one mother getting the
correct baby fluctuates more at the beginning of this process.
f. Does the cumulative proportion (also known as the cumulative relative frequency) appear to be “settling
down” and approaching one particular value? Yes, the relative frequency appears to be settling down and
approaching one particular value.
What do you think that value will be? Answers will vary as to what that value is, but it should be in the
ballpark of .625 (which is the theoretical probability we will calculate later).
g. Now combine your results on number of matches with the same 20-30 rows you used in part c, obtaining a
tally of how often each number of matches outcome occurred. Record the counts and proportions in the
following table: Below is a sample table:

h. In what proportion of these simulated cases did at least one mother get the correct baby? The proportion of
these simulated cases in which at least one mother obtained the correct baby is .33 + .28 +.05 or .66.
i. Based on the class’s simulation results, what is your empirical estimate of the probability of obtaining no
matches? P(no matches) ≈.34.

j. Based on the class’s simulation results, what is your empirical estimate of the probability of obtaining at
least one match? P(at least one match) ≈ .66 using the calculation from part h or 1 – P(no matches)

You can approximate these probabilities more accurately by performing more trials.

k. Use the Random Babies applet, shown in the book, to simulate this random process. Leave the number of
trials at 1, and click Randomize five times. Then turn off the Animate feature and ask for 995 more trials,
for a total of 1000 trials.

l. Are these simulation results reasonably consistent with the class results? Yes, these simulation results are
reasonably consistent with the class results.

m. Report the new (likely more accurate) empirical estimate that at least one mother gets the correct baby.
P(at least one match) ≈ 1 – .370 = .630.

n. Click the bar of the histogram corresponding to 0 matches to see a graph of how the relative frequency
changes over time. Does this graph appear to be fluctuating less as more trials are performed, approaching
a limiting value?

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o. Explain why an outcome of exactly 3 matches is impossible. The outcome of exactly 3 matches is
impossible because if three mothers and babies matched, then the fourth mother would have to be matched
correctly with her baby. There would be no “incorrect” baby left for her to be paired with.

p. Is it impossible to get 4 matches? Would you say it is rare? Or unlikely? It is not impossible to get four
matches but it seems very unlikely/rare because this happened only about 44 out of 1000 times.
q. Would you consider a result of zero matches or of one match or of two matches to be unlikely? Explain.
No, results of zero, one or two matches do not seem to be unlikely. Each would appear to occur at least
25% of the time; outcomes of zero and one match both occur more than ⅓ of the time.

Turn to page 229 and answer the questions from the Watch Out.

1. How will we define an unlikely event?

Probability is 0.10 or less

2. How we will define a rare event?

Probability is 0.05 or less

What we just explored is the Law of Large Numbers. The cumulative graph you made demonstrates the
idea of long-term average. As the number of times an experiment is repeated increases, the ratio of the
number of successful occurrences to the number of trials will tend to approach the theoretical probability
of the outcome for an individual trial.

This law tells us that the larger the number of experimental trials, the closer the empirical probability is
to the theoretical probability.

We will continue our study of simulations (Topic 11) in the next unit.

Conditional Probability

Many probabilities that we encounter in day-to-day life are the results of conditions that are already in
place. So, a conditional probability is the probability that an event will occur, GIVEN that another event
has occurred.

The mathematical definition of conditional probability is the probability of event two (E 2) happening
given that event one (E1) has happened. This is the notation that is used in most conditional probability
problems: P(E2|E1). The expression P(E2|E1) asks us to find the probability that event E2 occurs given
event E1 has occurred. (The vertical line stands for the words “given that”.)

Consider the following example. Suppose you select a tile from those shown at the right. You want to
know the probability that the tile is shaded given that it is a circle.

You can represent this as P(shaded|circle).

Of the 5 tiles that are circles, 2 are shaded.

So, P(shaded|circle) = .

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You read this as “the probability of shaded tile, given a circle”. Because you are only considering tiles
that are circles, you have reduced the size of the sample space.
It is common to organize information in tables in order to find conditional probabilities.

Using Two-Way Tables

Example: A utility company asked 50 of its customers whether they pay their bills online or by mail.
What is the probability that a customer pays the bill online, given that the customer is male?

The condition that the person selected is male limits the sample space. There are 12 + 8 = 20
male customers. Of those 20 customers, 12 pay online.

P(online|male) =

Example: The table shows students by gender at two- and four-year colleges, and graduate schools, in
2005. You pick a student at random.

What is P(female|graduate school)?

The condition that the person selected is at graduate

school limits the sample space. There are 1349 + 1954
= 3303 thousand students at graduate schools. Of those
3303 thousand students, 1954 are female.

P(female|graduate school) =

1. Use the table to find each probability.

a. P(junior) = 39/80
b. P(female) = 37/80
c. P(senior and male) d. P(junior | female) e. P(male | senior)
= 25/80 = 21/37 = 25/41

Extra Practice: Conditional Probability Homework

1. Use the table at the right to find the indicated

probabilities. Assume that an employee is
randomly selected when finding the
probabilities.

a. P(less than high school education)

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 (69+36+2)/1200=107/1200=0.089

b. P(earns over $30,000 and less than high school education)

2/1200=1/600=0.002

c. P(earns over $30,000 | has only high school education)

14/(112+98+14)=0.0625

d. P(has high school education or less | earns over $30,000)

(2+14)/(2+12+143+245)=16/404=0.039 or 0.040

2. Use the table below to find each probability. The table gives information about students at
one school. Assume that a student is randomly selected when finding the probabilities.

Favorite Leisure Activities

Sports Hiking Reading Phoning Shopping Other

Female 39 48 85 62 71 29 Total: 334

Male 67 58 76 54 68 39
Total: 362
a.
P(sports | female) 39/334=0.116 or 0.117 b. P(female | sports)39/(39+67)=0.367 or 0.368

c. P(reading | male) 76/362=0.209 or 0.210 d. P(male | reading)76/(85+76)=0.472

e. P(hiking | female) 48/334=0.143 or 0.144 f. P(hiking | male) 58/362=0.160

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3. The following table presents the results of a study to assess whether red dye #2 causes cancer in
laboratory rats (Fienberg, 1980). The three variables are dosage (high or low), presence of cancerous
tumor (yes or no), and whether the rat died before the end of the study or survived to the end of the 131-
week study: (Rossman and Chance)

a. Suppose one of these 88 rats was selected at random. Determine the conditional probability that the rat
had a cancerous tumor, given it received a high dosage of the dye.
P(tumor | high) = # of high dosage rats with tumors/(# of high dosage rats)
= (7 + 7)/(23 + 21) = 14/44 = .318

b. Determine the conditional probability that the rat had a cancerous tumor, given it received a low
dosage of the dye.
P(tumor | low) = (4 + 0)/(30 + 14) = 4/44 = .091

c. Compare the values of these two conditional probabilities, and comment on what they reveal about the
question of whether a higher dosage leads to a greater chance of developing cancer.
There is a much higher probability of the rat having a cancerous tumor if he is given the high dosage
rather than the low dosage. Because this is presumably a randomized experiment, you can conclude that
the higher dosage leads to a greater chance of developing cancer.

d. Determine the conditional probability that the rat had a cancerous tumor, given it died before the study
was completed.
P(tumor | died) = # of rats that died with a tumor/(# of rats that died) = (4 + 7)/(30 + 23) = 11/53 = .208

e. Determine the conditional probability that the rat had a cancerous tumor, given it survived until the end
of the study.
P(tumor | survived) = (0 + 7)/(14 + 21) = .20

Mathematical Probability Rules

We will now put formal mathematical rules to what we have been doing.

1. Complement Rule: In words, the Complement Rule says probability of A complement = one –
probability of A. Symbolically we say P(AC)= 1- P(A).

Example: Suppose that two dice are rolled and the sum is recorded. What is the probability that
the sum is at least 3. Rather than add all of the sums from 3 to 12, inclusive, it is easier to
compute the complement 1 – P(sum of 2) = 1 – 1/36 = 35/36.

2. General Addition Rule: Let A and B be two events defined in a sample space, S. In words,
probability of A or B = probability of A + probability of B – probability of A and B.
Symbolically we say P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B).
Example: Suppose that one die is rolled.. What is the probability that the value showing is
prime or even? P(prime) + P(even) – P(prime and even) = 1/2 (values of 2, 3, 5) + 1/2 (values of
2, 4, 6) – 1/6 (value of 2) = 5/6.

Go back to a previous example. Looking at the

Page 18
 make up of camp counselors, suppose you were asked, what is the probability that the counselor
is a junior or a female? Using the general addition rule, you compute P(junior) + P(female) –
P( female and juniors) =
39/80 + 37/80 – 21/80 = 55/80.

Since you were presented with the table, you could have also looked at the relevant cells and
added the juniors (18 + 21) and the females you had not yet counted (16) and arrived at the same
answer. Normally you do not have the option of computing P(A or B) in two ways as we do in
this example. You will need to find P(A or B) by starting with P(A) and P(B) but you need the
third piece of information, P(A and B).

3. General Multiplication Rule: Let A and B be two events, P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B, knowing A)
or P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B|A). Look at the chart above again. Find the probability that the
counselor is a junior and a female. Using the general multiplication rule, you compute
P(junior) x P(female given the person is a junior) = (39/80)(21/39) = 21/80. Since you were
presented with the table, you could have found the cell of female juniors and divided by the
number of total counselors. Again, you normally do not have the option of computing
P(A and B) in two ways.

Note that the General Multiplication Rule can be rearranged to find conditional probability:

We read P(B|A) as “the probability of B given A”. We can calculate this value using the formula
above or if we have the information in a table we can use that instead. As it says above, we will
usually only have one option in each problem, but we want to know how to work with anything
we are given.
Exercises: Find each of the following probabilities.

1. In a calculus class, there are 18 juniors and 10 seniors; 6 of the seniors are female and 12 of the
juniors are males. If a student is selected at random, find the following:

a. P(junior or female) = (18+6)/28 = 18/28 + 12/28 – (18/28)(6/18) = 24/28

b. P(senior or female) = (10+6)/28 = 10/28 + 12/28 – (10/28)(6/10) = 16/28

c. P(junior or senior) = (18+10)/28 = 18/28 + 10/28 – 0 = 1

Page 19
2. If you draw a single card from a standard deck of cards, what is the probability that it is a king or a
heart?

P(K or H) = 4/52 + 13/52 – (4/52)(1/4) = 16/52 = 0.307 or 0.308

3. If P(A) = 0.6 and P(B) = 0.3 and P(B|A) = 0.2, find the following

a. P(A and B) = 0.6(0.2) = 0.12

b. P(A or B) = 0.6 + 0.3 – 0.12 = 0.78

4. Suppose in an animal shelter, 24% of the dogs are white, 56% are brown, and the rest are black. Find
the probability that a dog is

a. black P(black) = 1 – P(black)C = 1 – (0.24+0.56) = 0.2

b. not white P(white)C = 1 – 0.24 = 0.76

c. brown or white P(brown or white) = 0.56 + 0.24 – 0 = 0.8

5. In a group of 35 children, 10 have blonde hair, 14 have brown eyes, and 4 have both blonde hair and
brown eyes. If a child is selected at random, find the probability that the child has blonde hair or
brown eyes.
P(BH or BE) = 10/35 + 14/35 – 4/35 = 20/35

Extra Practice: Mathematical Probability Rules Homework

1. Yan, a college senior, interviews with Google and DropBox. The probability of receiving an offer
from Google is 0.35, from DropBox is 0.48, and from both is 0.15. Find the probability of receiving
an offer from either Google or DropBox, but not both.

P(G or D) – P(G and D) = 0.35 + 0.48 – 2(0.15) = 0.53

2. A survey of couples in a city found the following probabilities:

The probability that the husband is employed is 0.85.
The probability that the wife is employed is 0.60.
The probability that both are employed is 0.55.

A couple is selected at random. Find the probability that

a. at least one of them is employed. P(H or W) = 0.85 + 0.6 – 0.55 = 0.9

b. neither is employed. P(H or W)C = 1 – 0.9 = 0.1

Page 20
3. A and B are events defined on a sample space, with P(A) = 0.7and P(B|A) = 0.3. Find P(A and B).

P(A and B) = 0.7(0.3) = 0.21

4. A and B are events defined on a sample space, with P(A) = 0.6 and P(A and B) = 0.2. Find P(B|A).

P(B|A) = 0.2/0.6 = 0.333

5. John lives in New York City and commutes to work daily by subway or by Uber. He takes the
subway 80% of the time because it costs less, and he uses Uber the other 20% of the time. When
taking the subway, he arrives at work on time 70% of the time, and when he uses Uber he is on time
90% of the time.

a. What is the probability that John took the subway and is at work on time on any given day?
P(S and T) = 0.8(0.7) = 0.56

b. What is the probability that John used Uber and is at work on time on any given day?
P(U and T) = 0.2(0.9) = 0.18

6. The 2011 U.S. Senate consisted of 51 Democrats, 2 Independents, and 47 Republicans. Of the 17
women Senators, 12 were Democrats and 5 were Republicans. Suppose one of these 100 senators was
chosen at random. (Rossman and Chance)

a. Show how to use the addition rule to calculate the probability that the selected senator was a woman or
a Democrat.

P(W or D) = 17/100 + 51/100 – (17/100)(12/17) = 56/100

b. Determine the conditional probability that the senator was a Democrat, given she was a woman. How
does this compare to the (unconditional) probability that the senator was a Democrat?

P(D|W) = 12/17 = 0.705 or 0.706

P(D) = 51/100 = 0.51

Higher probability of being a democrat if a woman

c. Determine the conditional probability that the senator was a Republican, given he was a man. How
does this compare to the (unconditional) probability that the senator was a Republican?

P(R|M) = 42/83 = 0.506

P(R) = 47/100 = 0.47
Similar probabilities, but slightly more likely to be a republican if a man
7. In the parking lot of a large mall 64% of cars are foreign made, 12% are the color blue, and 7.7% are
blue and foreign made cars. Use the given information to find the following probabilities:

a. A foreign car or a blue car?

P(F or B) = 0.64 + 0.12 – 0.077 = 0.683
b. Not a foreign car and a blue car?
P(F and B)C = 1 – 0.077 = 0.923

Page 21
Work for Sept. 30/Oct. 1 starts here:
Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events that cannot happen at the same time are mutually exclusive events or disjoint events. If A
and B are mutually exclusive events, then . If you are looking at a Venn diagram, the
closed areas representing each event “do not intersect”; i.e., there are no shared elements or they do not
overlap.
Example: You roll a standard number cube. Are the events below mutually exclusive?

 Rolling a 2 and a 3.
You cannot roll a 2 and 3 at the same time. These events are mutually exclusive.
 Rolling an even number and a multiple of 3.
The even numbers on a number cube are 2, 4, and 6. The multiples of 3 on a number cube are 3
and 6. There is one possible outcome that is both an even number and a multiple of 3, namely 6.
These events are not mutually exclusive.

Discuss: You randomly select an integer from 1 to 100. State whether the events are mutually exclusive.
Explain your reasoning.

a. The integer is less than 40; the integer is greater than 40.

Mutually exclusive

b. The integer is odd; the integer is a multiple of 4.

Mutually exclusive

c. The integer is less than 50; the integer is greater than 40.

Not mutually exclusive

There is a special addition rule for mutually exclusive events because the probability of the intersection
of the two events is 0.

General Addition Rule: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) . An alternate
notation is

To find the probability of either event A or event B occurring, you need to determine whether events A
and B are mutually exclusive.

Example: At a local high school, a student can take one foreign language each semester. About 37% of
the students take Spanish. About 15% of the students take French. What is the probability that a student
chosen at random is taking Spanish or French?
“One foreign language each semester” means a student cannot take both Spanish and French.
The events are mutually exclusive. So, P(Spanish or French) = P(Spanish) + P(French) = 0.37 +
0.15 = 0.52.

Page 22
Exercises:
1. Determine whether the following sets of events are mutually exclusive.
a. One student is selected at random from the student body: the person selected is “male”, the person
selected is “older than 16 years old”.
Not mutually exclusive
b. Two dice are thrown: the total showing is “less than 6”, the total showing is “more than 10”.
Mutually exclusive
c. Two dice are thrown: the number of dots showing on the dice are “both odd”, “both even”, “total
7”, “total 11”.
Mutually exclusive

2. One student is selected from the student body at TJ. Define the following events: F-the student
selected is a freshman, S-the student selected is a sophomore, C-the student selected is registered for
Chinese.
a. Are the events F and S mutually exclusive? Explain.
Yes – can’t be in two grades
b. Are the events F and C mutually exclusive? Explain.
No – freshmen can take Chinese

c. Are the events S and C mutually exclusive? Explain.

No – sophomores can take Chinese

d. Are the events F and S complementary? Explain.

No – there are also juniors and seniors

e. Are the events F and C complementary? Explain.

No – not all freshmen are in Chinese and not all freshmen are not in Chinese

f. Are complementary events also mutually exclusive events? Explain.

Yes – if one happens, the other doesn’t happen

g. Are mutually exclusive events also complementary events? Explain.

No – there could be more events involved

Page 23
Extra Practice: Mutually Exclusive Homework

1. M and N are mutually exclusive events. Find P(M or N).

a.

P(M or N) = 3/4 + 1/6 = 11/12

b. P(M) = 10%, P(N) = 45%

P(M or N) = 0.10 + 0.45 = 0.55

2. Exactly 62% of the students in your school are under 17 years old. In addition, 4% of
the students are over 18. What is the probability that a student chosen at random is under
17 or over 18?

0.62 + 0.04 = 0.66

3. A number cube is tossed. Find each probability.

a. P(even or 3)

3/6 + 1.6 = 4/6

b. P(less than 2 or even)

1/6 + 3/6 = 4/6

c. P(prime or 4)

3/6 + 1/6 = 4/6

4. The graph at the right shows the types of bicycles in a

bicycle rack. Find each probability.

a. A bicycle is a 1-speed.

0.11

b. A bicycle is a 3-speed or a 5-speed.

0.28 + 0.42 = 0.70

c. A bicycle is not a 10-speed.

1 – 0.14 = 0.86

d. A bicycle is not a 1-, 3-, or 10-speed.

0.42 + 0.05 = 0.47

Page 24
Dependent and Independent Events

When the occurrence of one event affects the occurrence of a second event, the events are dependent
events. Otherwise, the events are independent events.

If the probability of event A remains unchanged after we know that B has occurred, the events are
independent. Algebraically, this means P(A) = P(A|B).

Note that the probability of event A is the same as the probability of A given B since B does not affect A.

Examples:

1. Using the definition: Is each pair of events dependent or independent?

 Roll a number cube. Then spin a spinner.

The two events do not affect each other. They are independent.
 Pick one flash card and then pick another from a stack of 30 flash cards without replacing the
first card.
Picking the first card affects the possible outcomes on the second pick. The events are
dependent.

2. Using algebra: Recall the parking lot example from page 20. F B
In the parking lot of a large mall 64% of cars are foreign made,
12% are blue, and 7.7% are blue and foreign made cars. The
information has been summarized in the Venn diagram at the right.
.563 .077 .043

Is being a foreign car and being blue mutually exclusive? .317

independent?

Not Mutually Exclusive because P(F ∩ B) = 0.077 ≠ 0

Independent because P(F|B) = 0.6427 = 0.64 = P(F)

If the occurrence of one event does not affect the occurrence of a second event, the events are
independent and the Special Multiplication Rule for Independent Events can be applied.

Special Multiplication Rule for Independent Events:

A and B are independent events if and only if . An

alternate notation is

Example 3: At a picnic there are 10 diet drinks and 5 regular drinks. There are also 8 bags of fat-free
chips and 12 bags of regular chips. If you grab a drink and a bag of chips without looking, what is the
probability that you get a diet drink and fat-free chips.

Page 25
3b. Using the
data above, what is the probability that you get a regular drink and regular chips?

P(RD and RC) = (5/15)(12/20) = 1/5 = 0.20 because events are independent
Example 4: There are 6 green and 8 yellow bananas. Sam removes 2 at random. Find the probability
that both bananas will be yellow.

Solution: Because the selection of one banana affects the selection of the second banana, in order to find
8 7 4
the probability, we can multiply: P(yellow) P(yellow|yellow) = ∙ =
14 13 13

Exercises

1. Suppose you have seven CDs in a box. Four are rock, one is jazz, and two are country.

a. Today you choose one CD without looking, play it, and put it back in the box.
Tomorrow, you do the same thing. What is the probability that you choose a country CD
both days? (2/7)(2/7) = 4/49 = 0.081 or 0.082

b. Suppose that today you choose one CD without looking, play it, but you do not return it
to the box. Tomorrow, you do the same thing. What is the probability that you choose a
country CD both days? (2/7)(1/6) = 2/42 = 0.047 or 0.048

2. Suppose you have 700 CDs in a box. Four hundred are rock, 100 are jazz, and 200 are
country.
a. Today you choose one CD without looking, play it, and put it back in the box.
Tomorrow, you do the same thing. What is the probability that you choose a country CD
both days? (200/700)(200/700) = 4/49 = 0.081 or 0.082

b. Suppose that today you choose one CD without looking, play it but you do not return it
to the box. Tomorrow, you do the same thing. What is the probability that you choose a
country CD both days? (200/700)(199/699) = 0.081

Page 26
Watch Out
 Don’t confuse the property of independence with the property of being mutually exclusive. These
properties are very different. In fact, if two events (with nonzero probabilities) are mutually
exclusive events, then they cannot be independent because P(E|F) = 0 when E and F are mutually
exclusive.

 Many students are tempted to always multiply (unconditional) probabilities to calculate the
probability that both events occur. Be careful to do this only when the events are independent or
when one of the probabilities is a conditional one.

 Do not be too quick to assume independence. Think about the context of the random process to
judge whether assuming the events are independent is reasonable (e.g., complete strangers
picking a movie vs. two friends).

3. Suppose that you have five books in your backpack. Three are novels, one is a biography, and one is
a poetry book. Today you grab one book out of your backpack without looking and return it later.
Tomorrow you do the same thing. What is the probability that you grab a novel both days?

(3/5)(3/5) = 9/25

4. Q and R are independent events. Find P(Q and R).

a. b. P(Q) = 0.7, P(R) = 0.3

P(Q and R) = (1/8)(2/5) = 1/20 P(Q and R) = 0.7(0.3) = 0.21

5. A box contains four red and three blue marbles. Three marbles are to be randomly selected, one at a
time.
a. What is the probability that all three marbles will be red if the selection is done with replacement?
(4/7)(4/7)(4/7) = 0.186 or 0.187

b. What is the probability that all three marbles will be red if the selection is done without
replacement?
(4/7)(3/6)(2/5) = 0.114

c. Are the drawings independent in either a or b? Justify your answer.

Independent in a because of replacement. Dependent in b because without replacement.

6. The Mars Company, maker of M&M’s, no longer posts the proportion of different colors found in
their candies. The approximate proportions of colors in M&M’s peanut candies are: blue 23%,
orange 23%, green 15%, yellow 15%, red 12%, and brown 12%.

a. Suppose you draw one M&M at random. Are the events “drawing a green candy” and “drawing a
yellow candy” independent? mutually exclusive? neither? Explain.

Mutually exclusive because they can’t both happen. Mutually exclusive means they are not independent.
b. Suppose you draw two M&M’s without replacement, one after the other. Are the events “first candy
is blue” and “second candy is blue” independent? mutually exclusive? neither? Explain.

Not mutually exclusive because they could both happen. Not independent because without replacement.

c. Can mutually exclusive events ever be independent? Explain.

No, if they can’t both happen and one does happen, it impacts the probability of the other.

Page 27
7. Government data show that 27% of the civilian labor force have at least 4 years of college and that
16% of the labor force work as laborers or operators of machines or vehicles. Can you conclude that
because (0.27)(0.16) = 0.043 that about 4% of the labor force are college educated laborers or operators.
Explain your answer.

No, we don’t know that the groups are independent.

8. Classify each pair of events as dependent or independent.

a. A bag contains six red marbles and four blue marbles. You randomly pick a marble and
then return it to the bag before picking another marble. The first marble is red and the
second marble is blue.
Independent
b. Landing on heads after tossing a coin and rolling a 5 on a single 6-sided die.

Independent

c. Choosing a marble from a jar and then choosing a second marble without replacing the first.

Dependent

d. A box of chocolates contains eight milk chocolates and six dark chocolates. You randomly pick a
chocolate and eat it. Then you randomly pick another piece. Both pieces are milk chocolate.

Dependent

e. There are six boys and five girls in a class. The teacher randomly selects one student to answer a
question. Later, the teacher randomly selects a different student to answer another question. The first
student is a boy and the second student is a girl.

Dependent
9. The following table shows the breakdown of gender and degree among a university’s faculty.
What is the probability that a randomly selected professor is

a. Male and has a Doctorate

P(M and D) = (46/66)(28/46) = 28/66
b. Male or has a Doctorate
P(M or D) = 46/66 + 40/66 – 28/66 = 58/66
c. Male given they have a Doctorate
P(M|D) = 28/40

d. Female and has a Masters degree

P(F and M) = (20/66)(8/20) = 8/66

10. The tree diagram relates snowfall and school closings. Let H, L, O and C represent heavy snowfall,
light snowfall, schools open, and schools closed, respectively. Find each probability.
a. Find P(H and O) = 0.4(0.2) = 0.08
0.32
b. Find P(H|C) = (0.4(0.8)) / (0.4(0.8) + 0.6(0.3)) = 0.64
0.08
c. Find P(L|O) = (0.6(0.7)) / (0.4(0.2) + 0.6(0.7)) = 0.84 0.18

0.42
Page 28
11. Ann applied for two scholarships—an academic scholarship (A) and a sports scholarship (S).
Assume that the probability that Ann receives the sports scholarship is 0.25, the probability that she
receives both scholarships is 0.15, and the probability that she receives at least one of the scholarships is
0.37. Use a Venn diagram to answer the questions below.

a. Venn Diagram:

b. What is the probability that Ann receives the academic scholarship?

0.12 + 0.15 = 0.27

c. What is the probability that Ann did not receive either of the two scholarships? 0.63
d. What is the probability that Ann receives the academic scholarship, given that she has been awarded
the sports scholarship? 0.6

e. What is the probability that Ann receives the sports scholarship, given that she has been awarded the
academic scholarship? 0.555 or 0.556

f. Are the events “receiving a sports scholarship” and “receiving an academic scholarship” independent
events? Explain
P(A) = 0.27
P(A|S) = 0.556
Not independent

Page 29
Extra Practice: Dependent and Independent Events Homework

For Exercises 1–5, match each word or phrase in Column A to the matching item in Column B.
Column A Column B
___D__1. dependent events A. the occurrence of one event does NOT
affect the occurrence of a second event

___E__2. P(A and B) if A,B are independent B. two events that cannot occur at the same time
events same time

___A__3. independent events C. P(A) + P(B)

___C__4. P(A or B) if A, B are mutually D. the occurrence of one event affects the occurrence
exclusive events of a second event

___B__5. mutually exclusive events E. P(A) · P(B)

For Exercises 6–8, match each item in Column A to the matching term in Column B.
Column A Column B
___B__6. Flip a coin. Then roll a number cube. A. dependent events

_C, A_7. snow and 80°F weather B. independent events

___A__8. Pick a piece from a set of chess C. mutually exclusive events

pieces. Then pick a second piece without
replacement.

9. A class rolled a number cube 40 times and recorded an even number 23 times. What is the
empirical estimate of the probability of rolling an even number? odd number?
23/40 for even; 17/40 for odd
10. Q and R are independent events.

a. . Find P(Q and R) = (1/4)(1/8) = 1/32

b. . Find P(R) = (2/9) / (2/7) = 7/9

c. P(Q) = 0.4, P(R) = 0.15. Find P(Q or R) = 0.4 + 0.15 – 0.4(0.15) = 0.49

Page 30
Page 31
11. Two fair number cubes are tossed. State whether the events are mutually exclusive.
a. The sum is 10; the numbers are equal.
Not mutually exclusive
b. The sum is greater than 9; one of the numbers is 2.

Mutually exclusive

12. S and T are mutually exclusive events. Given

a. Find P(S or T).

1/6 + 2/3 = 5/6

b. Find P(S and T).

13. A survey chooses a sample of households and measures their annual income and their savings. Some
events of interest are

A = the household chosen has income at least $100,000

C = the household chosen has at least $50,000 in savings

Based on this survey, we estimate P(A) = 0.07 and P(C) = 0.2.

a. We want to find the probability that a household either has income of at least $100,000 or
savings of at least $50,000. Explain why we do not have enough information to find this
probability. What additional information is needed?

Can’t assume they are mutually exclusive. Need P(A and C).

b. We want to find the probability that a household has income of at least $100,000 and savings
of at least $50,000. Explain why we do not have enough information to find this probability.
What additional information is needed?

Can’t assume they are independent. Need conditional probability.

14. The 2011 U.S. Senate consisted of 51 Democrats, 2 Independents, and 47 Republicans. Of the 17
women Senators, 12 were Democrats and 5 were Republicans. Suppose one of these 100 senators was
chosen at random. (Rossman and Chance) Is party independent of gender among these 100 senators?
More formally, is the event “selected senator is female” independent of “selected senator is a Democrat”?
Explain. (You worked on this problem earlier in the packet and may want to use those calculations here.)

No. P(D) isn’t the same as P(D|W).

Page 32
15. Of the 10,000 students at a certain university, 7000 have VISA cards, 6000 have MasterCards, and
5000 have both. Suppose that a student is randomly selected.
a. Draw a Venn diagram illustrating the situation.

Master Card
VISA
.5
.1

.2

.2

b. What is the probability that the selected student has a VISA card?
0.7

c. What is the probability that the selected student has both cards?
0.5

d. Suppose you learn that the selected student has a VISA card. Now what is the probability that this
student has both cards?
5000/7000 = 0.714
e. Are the outcomes “has a VISA card” and “has a MasterCard” independent? Show the work leading to
your answer.
Not independent. P(V) = 0.7 but doesn’t equal P(V|MC) = 5/6 or P(V and MC) = 0.5 but does not equal
P(V)P(MC) = 0.7(0.6) = 0.42

f. Answer the question posed in part e if only 4200 of the students have both cards. Show the work
leading to your answer.
P(V and MC) = 0.42 now which is equal to P(V)P(MC) so they are independent

Page 33
16. Margaret has 10 geranium plants. She knows that 5 will flower red, 3 pink and 2 white. (Give each
of your answers to this problem as a fraction.)

a. What is the probability that the first plant to flower is pink? 3/10

b. Write the correct probability on each branch in the tree diagram below.
first plant to flower second plant to flower

4/9 red
3/9 pink
red
2/9 white
5/10 red
5/9
3/10 2/9
pink pink
2/9 white
2/10
5/9 red
white 3/9
pink
1/9 white

c. What is the probability that, of the first two plants to flower,

i. both are red? (5/10)(4/9) = 2/9

ii. one is red and the other is pink? (5/10)(3/9) + (3/10)(5/9) = 30/90

iii. at least one is pink? (5/10)(3/9) + 3/10 + (2/10)(3/9) = 48/90

d. What is the probability that the first three plants to flower are all white? 0 (only 2 white plants…)

Page 34
Work for Oct. 5/6 starts here:
Theoretical Probability
In the first part of this unit, we have dealt with empirical probabilities where the counting has already
been completed. In the second part of the unit we will deal with theoretical probabilities. With
theoretical probability, you don’t actually conduct an experiment (i.e. roll a die or conduct a survey).
Instead, you use your knowledge about a situation, some logical reasoning, and/or a known formula to
calculate the probability of an event happening. The first thing we must do to calculate theoretical
probabilities is to examine some basic counting ideas and formulas.

Permutations and Combinations

It is easy to count the ways you can choose items from a short list. But sometimes there are so many
choices that counting the possibilities is impractical.

The Fundamental Counting Principle describes the method of using multiplication to count the number
of outcomes that can occur.

Fundamental Counting Principle

The Fundamental Counting Principle states that if one event has m possible outcomes and a
second event has n possible outcomes, then there are m x n total possible outcomes for the two
events together. Example: Four different fruits and 6 different vegetables give 4 6
possible fruit and vegetable combinations.

1. John has 6 computers, 7 printers and 3 scanners to choose from. How many possible computer-
printer combinations can he make?
6 * 7 = 42
A permutation is an arrangement of items in a particular order. Suppose you want to find the number
of ways to order three items. There are 3 ways to choose the first item, 2 ways to choose the second,
and 1 way to choose the third. By the Fundamental Counting Principle, there are 3(2)(1) = 6
permutations.
Using factorial notation, you can write 3(2)(1) as 3! and read “three factorial”. For any positive integer
n, n factorial is . Note: 0! = 1 by definition.

Evaluate each expression without a calculator.

2. 6! = 6*5*4*3*2*1 = 720 3. =

4. 6!3! = 720 * 3*2*1 = 4320 5. =

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 Number of Permutations
The number of permutations of n items of a set arranged r items at a time is

Example

Evaluate each expression.

6. 7P4 = 7. 9P5 =

Example: Ten students are in a race. First, second and third places will win medals. In how many ways
can 10 runners finish first, second and third place (no ties allowed)?

8. In how many ways can 15 runners finish first, second, and third?

a. Use the permutation formula to set up and find the answer.

b. In Problem a, is the number of ways for runners to finish first, second, and third the same as
the number of ways to finish eighth, ninth, and tenth? Explain.
Yes. Any of the 15 runners could finish eighth. Any of the 14 remaining runners could finish ninth.
Any of the remaining 13 runners could finish tenth.

In the previous example, we found the number of ways that 10 runners can finish in first, second, and
third places. Suppose instead that the three runners who finish first, second, and third in a race advance
to a championship race. In this case, the order in which the first three runners cross the finish line does
not matter. A selection in which order does not matter is called a combination.

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Number of Combinations
The number of combinations of n items of a set chosen r items at a time is

Example

Evaluate each expression.

9. 12C11 = 10. 12C1 =

11. 12C5 = 12. 12C7 = 12C5 = 792

13. 4C4 + 4C3 + 4C2 + 4C1 + 4C0 14.

= 10/10 = 1

15. What do you observe about the pairs of problems 9 and 10 and 11 and 12? Show why this occurs.

nCk = nC(n-k)
(When asked to show something like this is true, so in general not with a specific set of values.)
A mathematical explanation shows that the formulas are the same. A logical argument provides an
example like the following. If we select, say, 3 out of five, we’re rejecting 2. We could just as easily
choose the rejections.

16. Thirty people apply for 10 job openings as welders. How many different groups of
people can be hired?

30C10 =

For each situation, determine whether to use a permutation or a combination. Then solve the
problem.
17. You draw the names of 5 raffle winners from a basket of 50 names. Each person wins
the same prize. How many different groups of winners could you draw?

Since each person wins the same prize, order doesn’t matter: 50 C5 = 2,118,760

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18. How many different 5-letter codes can you make from the letters in the word cipher?
Each different ordering of the letters is a different code: 6P5 = 6!/(6-5)! = 6!
Or think it through this way: Choose any 5 letters. They can be arranged 5! ways. But
there are 6 ways to choose 5 letters, and 6∙5! = 6! = 720.

19. Nine people tryout for the nine positions on a baseball team. In how many ways could the
positions be filled if Fred must be the pitcher?

8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1 = 40320

20. Using the letters SARDINE, how many different arrangements have D first and a consonant
second?

1*3*5*4*3*2*1 = 360

Assume a and b are positive integers. Determine whether each statement is true or false. If it is true,
explain why. If it is false, give a counterexample.

21. a!b! = b!a! 22. (a2)! = (a!)2

True by commutative property of False. Counterexample: (32)! = 9∙8∙7∙6∙5∙4∙3∙2∙1 =
multiplication. Let a! = m and let b! = n. 362,880. (3!)2 = (3∙2∙1)2 = 62 = 36.
Then a!b! = mn = nm = b!a!

23. a · b! = (ab)! 24.

False. Counterexample: Let a = 3 and False. is not defined for a/b .

let b = 4. Then 3∙4! = 3∙4∙3∙2∙1 = 72.
(3∙4)! = 12! = 12∙11∙10∙…∙1 = 479,001,600.

Extra Practice: Theoretical Probability Homework

Evaluate each expression.

1. 3!4! 144 2. 1/28 ≈.036 3. 6C2 15

4. 6P2 30 5. 42 6. 21/10 = 2.1

7. How many different orders can you choose to read six of the nine books on your summer
reading list?
P = 60, 480
9 6

8. How many ways are there to choose five shirts out of seven to take to camp?

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C5 = 21
7

9. You must answer exactly 12 out of 15 questions on a test. How many different ways can you
select the questions to answer?
15 C12 = 15∙14∙13/(3∙2∙1) = 455
10. A lab assigns a three-digit identification to each subject in an experiment. No two subjects
have the same identification. No digit can be repeated in an identification. What is the greatest
number of subjects that can be used in the experiment?
P = 720
10 3

11. To mark its eighth anniversary, Pizzeria Otto has a special coupon that offers the same price on
a pizza with any combination of the 8 original toppings. Each pizza must have at least one topping.
How many different kinds of pizza can be ordered with the coupon?
8 C1 + 8C2 + 8C3 + 8C4 + 8C5 + 8C6 + 8C7 + 8C8 = 255 = 28 – 1
Why 28 – 1? There are eight toppings, and for every combination of toppings, topping n is
either selected or not selected. Subtract 1 because 0 toppings is not an option.
12. A typical Chinese restaurant will often feature a Special Dinner, in which the customer has the
choice of ordering one appetizer and one entree.
a. If there are 8 appetizers and 11 entrees, how many different Special Dinners are there?
Use the Fundamental Counting Principal: 8 ∙11 = 88

b. If there are A appetizers and E entrees, how many different Special Dinners are there?
Use the Fundamental Counting Principal: A ∙E

c. There are 12 different appetizers. In how many different orders can 3 different appetizers be
brought to the table?
12P3 = 1320

13. There are five different math books and three different biology books on a shelf.
a. In how many ways can they be arranged?
8! = 40, 320

b. In how many ways can they be arranged if the math books are grouped together and the biology
books are grouped together?
2∙5!∙3! = 2∙120∙6 = 1440
14. In 1966, one type of Maryland license plate had two letters followed by four digits. How many of
this type of plate were possible? Use the Fundamental Counting Principle to find the number of possible
license plates. Complete the expression.

= _6,760,000_

15. An art gallery plans to display seven sculptures in a single row. Write a factorial expression to show
how many different arrangements of the sculptures are possible, and then evaluate it.

7! = 5040

16. In how many ways can four distinct positions for a relay race be assigned from a team of
nine runners?

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 9(8)(7)(6) = 3024
Work for Oct. 7/8 starts here:
Finding Theoretical Probabilities

The rules we learned in the first part of the unit are the same for theoretical probabilities.

Summary of Basic Probability Rules

1. For any event E, 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1
2. Sum of all outcomes in the sample space S is 1: P(S) = 1.

3. If the outcomes in S are equally likely to occur, the P(E) =

4. Complement Rule: P(Ec) = 1 – P(E)

Rules Involving More than One Event

1. General Addition Rule: P(E F) = P(E) + P(F) – P(E ∩ F)

2. Addition Rule for disjoint events: If E and F are disjoint (mutually exclusive) events, then P(E F) = P(E) + P(F)
3. *General Multiplication Rule: P(F∩E) = P(E)∙P(F|E)
4. Multiplication Rule for Independent Events: P(E∩F) = P(E)∙P(F) if and only if E and F are independent events.

5. *Conditional Probability Formula:

*Note that these 2 formulas are simple rearrangements of the 3 probabilities.

Now rather than determining the numerator or denominator from a table or information, you must
determine the theoretical numbers by choosing if you are using permutations or combinations and using
the appropriate counting rules.

Examples:

Example 1: A permutation is selected at random from the letters SEQUOIA. What is the probability that
Q is in the fourth position and that it ends in a vowel?

Solution: To answer this question you must compute the number of permutations meeting the
requirements. And, you must compute the number of permutations in the sample space.
For the numerator, you can use a schematic. There is only one way to have a Q in the fourth
position and there are 5 ways of having a vowel in the last position:
___ ∙___ ∙ ___ ∙ 1 ∙ ___ ∙ ___ ∙ 5
Since there are five letters remaining, once the Q and vowel are placed, the number of
permutations is 5 ∙ 4 ∙ 3 ∙ 1 ∙ 2 ∙ 1 ∙ 5 = 600
For the denominator, we must find the number of permutations in the general sample space; i.e.,
how many “words” can be formed with the 7 letters. Since the letters cannot be used more than
once, this is a permutation, 7! = 5040. So, the probability is

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Page 41
Example 2: If a committee of five is selected at random from a group of 9 people (6 girls and 3 boys),
what is the probability that it will have

a. John and Mary as two of the 5 people?

b. Exactly 3 girls and 2 boys?
c. At least 3 girls?

Solution: The sample space is the set of all possible 5-member committees. This is a
combination: . This will serve as the denominator in each case.
For part a, there is only one way to choose both John and Mary and we need three additional

people, so we are computing:

For part b, there are ways of choosing the boys.

Since both calculations must be performed the total number of ways is found by multiplying:

So,
For part c, the committees could be 3 girls and 2 boys OR 4 girls and 1 boy OR five
girls. In this case, we must add the total number of ways of getting the committees.

Exercises
1. Many manufactured items look interchangeable. Examples are ball bearings, light bulbs, and
transistors. However, an individual ball bearing may be too large or too small, and a light bulb or a
transistor that looks fine may prove to be defective. The following exercises require the computation of
certain probabilities based on the number of defective items and the size of the sample. Answers can be
given in terms of combination notation.
a. A shipment contains 50 transistors, 3 of which are defective. What is the probability that a
randomly chosen transistor from this shipment works? What is the probability that it is
defective?
47/50; 3/50
b. A sample consisting of 2 transistors is chosen from this shipment. What is the probability that both
transistors work? What is the probability that both transistors are defective?

an easier approach:

c. A shipment contains 80 ball bearings, 5 of which are defective. What is the probability that a randomly

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selected ball bearing meets specifications? What is the probability that it is defective? 15/16; 1/16
Extra Practice: Finding Theoretical Probability Homework
Problems with an asterisk are optional; they provide additional probability practice, but you will not see
similar problems on a quiz or test (Fall 2021).
1. A sample of three ball bearings is chosen from the above shipment.

a. What is the probability that all three ball bearings are acceptable?

*b. What is the probability that two ball bearings are acceptable and one is
defective?

*c. What is the probability that one is acceptable and two are defective?

d. What is the probability that all three ball bearings are defective?

*e. What is the probability that an odd number of ball bearings are defective?

2. In a class there are 6 girls and 4 boys.

a. Two students are chosen at random from the class. In how many ways can this be done?

10C2 = 45

b. If it is necessary for there to be one girl and one boy, how many ways are possible?
6 1*4C1 = 24
C
3. A shipment of toy cars contains 40 red cars and 45 blue cars. Two cars of each color are defective. A
sample of three toy cars is chosen from the shipment.

a. What is the probability that all three toy cars are blue?

*b. What is the probability that two toy cars are blue and one is red?

*c. What is the probability that two toy cars are acceptable and one is
defective?

*d. What is the probability that two toy cars are red and acceptable and one is
blue and defective?

*e. What is the probability that one toy car is an acceptable blue car, another
is a defective blue car, and the other is a defective red car?

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*4. In the original version of poker known as “straight” poker, a 5-card hand is dealt from a standard
deck of 52 cards. Find the probability of the given event.

a. A hand will contain at least one king. 1 – P(no king) = 1 - = 0.341

b. A hand will be a “full house” (any three of one kind and a pair of another kind.)

c. A hand will contain 4 aces and a king.

d. A hand will contain 4 aces.

5. In how many ways can a committee of 5 people be chosen from 7 men and 3 women if it must contain
at least one woman?

*6. Two members of a math department are to be chosen at random to attend a convention. If the
department has 9 men and 6 women members, what is the probability that 2 men attend the conference?

*7. Mr. Lightner has 13 socks in his drawer, 7 blue and 6 green. He selects 6 socks at random. What is
the probability that he gets

a. 3 blue and 3 green

= 0.407 or 0.408

b. 4 blue and 2 green

= 0.305 or 0.306

c. 2 blue and 4 green or 3 blue and 3 green

= 0.591

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Page 45
Extra Practice: Review Problems

True/False

1. The probability of an event that is certain is 1.

2. 0! = 0

3. 10 C1 = 10!

4. (a +0)! = a!

Multiple Choice

5. You choose 5 apples from a case of 24 apples. Which best represents the number of ways you can
make your selection?
A. 5C19 B. 24C5 C. 5P24 D. 19P5

6. Which is equivalent to 7P3?

A. 28 B. 35 C.210 D. 840

7. A traveler can choose from three airlines, five hotels, and four rental car companies. How many
arrangements of these services are possible?

A. 12 B. 60 C. 220 D. 495

8. In a box, there are 8 red, 7 blue and 6 green balls. One ball is picked up randomly. What is the
probability that it is neither red nor green?

A. 1/3 B. ¾ C. 7/19 D. 8/21 E. 9/21

Short Answer You need not simplify the expression. You may leave it in permutation, combination
and/or factorial form.

9. A survey of college students finds that 40% like country music, 30% like gospel music, and 10% like
both.

a. Make a Venn diagram illustrating these results.

b. What percent of college students like country but not gospel?

c. What percent of college students like neither country nor gospel?

10. Decide whether to use a permutation or a combination for each situation. Then solve the problem.

a. An ice cream parlor offers 14 different types of ice cream. In how many different ways can you select
5 types of ice cream to sample?

b. Eleven groups entered a science fair competition. In how many ways can the groups finish first,
second, and third?

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11. How many 3-digit numbers can we make using the digits 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 without repetitions? 

12. How many 6 letter words can we make using the letters in the word LIBERTY without repetitions? 

13. In how many ways can you arrange 5 different books on a shelf? 

14. In how many ways can you select a committee of 3 students out of 10 students? 

15. How many triangles can you make using 6 non-collinear points on a plane? 

16. A committee including 3 boys and 4 girls is to be formed from a group of 10 boys and 12 girls. How
many different committees can be formed from the group? 

17. In a certain country, the car number plate is formed by 4 digits from the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and
9 followed by 3 letters from the alphabet. How many number plates can be formed if neither the digits
nor the letters are repeated?

18. How many seven-digit phone numbers can be made under the following conditions: (First digit
cannot be 0 or 1 because you'll get the operator or long distance). The first digit is 3 and the second digit
is 6. The third digit is even. The fourth digit is greater than 5. The fifth and seventh digits are odd. The
sixth digit is 2.

19. Michelle, Ruth, Ana, and Susan are trying out for the varsity basketball team. In all, 21 girls are
trying out, and 12 girls will make the team.

a. How many different ways can the coach choose a team?

b. Seven of the 21 players were on the team last year. If they all make the team, in how many ways
can the coach select from the other 14 players to complete the team?

c. The coach wants to divide the players into different groups. At random, each player takes a warm-
up jersey from a bin with 9 red, 7 yellow, and 5 blue jerseys. If Ana chose first, what is the
probability that she gets a yellow jersey? If Michelle picks next, what is the probability that she
chooses a red jersey?

20. A club has 8 male and 8 female members. The club is choosing a committee of 6 members. The
committee must have 3 male and 3 female members. How many different committees can be chosen?

21. On any given day there’s a 0.8 probability that I’ll be happy. If I’m happy there’s a 0.7 probability I’ll
study hard for the test, but if I’m not happy there’s only a 0.2 probability.

a. Construct a tree diagram and find the probabilities that I (i) study hard and (ii) don’t study hard.

b. If I study hard for the test there’s a 0.6 probability that I’ll get a good grade, but if I don’t study
hard there’s only a 0.2 probability. Find the probability that I get a good grade.

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22. The international club at school has 105 members, many of
whom speak multiple languages. The most commonly spoken
languages in the club are English, Spanish and Chinese. Use
the Venn diagram at the right to determine the probability of a
student who

a. Does not speak English

b. Speaks Spanish given that they speak English

c. Speaks English given that they speak Chinese

d. Speaks Spanish and English but not Chinese

23. A box contains four blue and six green balls. Two balls are randomly selected from the box.
Determine the probability for the following, first (i) WITH replacement, and then (ii) WITHOUT
replacement.
a. Both are green

b. First is blue and the second is green

c. A green and a blue one are obtained

24. Classify each pair of events as dependent or independent.

a. Roll a number cube. Then roll it again.

b. Pull a card from a deck of playing cards. Then pull a second card.

25. Q and R are independent events. Find P(Q and R) if P(Q) = 0.8 and P(R) = 0.2.

Page 48
26. Given the following table of survey results of snack preferences, find the probability that a person
selected at random from a group is:

Chip Fruit Popcorn

s
Males 40 30 30
Females 30 20 60

a. male

b. prefers fruit

c. a male who prefers fruit

d. a female who prefers fruit or a male

e. a male given prefers fruit

f. prefers fruit given male

g. Are preferring fruit and being male independent?

27. After studying the traffic patterns at this corner over a long period of time, we determine that cars go
straight 60% of the time, turn right 25% of the time, and turn left 15% of the time. Now, we form a
probability model by listing the elements of our sample space, together with their associated
probabilities. (See Table below).

Vehicle Straight Right Left

Direction
Probability 0.6 0.25 0.15

a. Let C be the event that a vehicle comes to the corner and then either goes straight or turns
right. Find P(C).

b. Two vehicles are randomly selected from the traffic study. What is the probability that neither
of them goes straight?

c. Two vehicles are randomly selected from the traffic study. What is the probability that at least
one of them goes straight?

Answers: 1. T 2. F 3. F 4. T 5. B 6. C 7. B 8. A 9.

C G
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.3 .1 .2
9b. 30% 9c. 40%
10a. combination -
10b. permutation -
11. 5 P 3 = 60 
12. 7 P 6 = 5040 
13. 5! = 120 
14. 10 C 3 = 120  15. 6 C 3 = 20  16. 10 C 3 * 12 C 4 = 59,400 
17. 9 P 4 * 26 P 3 = 47,174,400 study .56
18. Use the Fundamental Counting Principle: 1∙1∙5∙4∙5∙1∙5 = 500 phone numbers .7
19. a. 21C12 = 293,930 b. 14C5 = 2002 .8 don't study
c. P(yellow) = 7/21 = 1/3 P(red|yellow already selected) = 9/20 = .45 happy .3 .24
20. 8C3 ∙ 8C3 = 562 = 3136
study .04
21. (a) P(study hard) = .56 + .04 = .6 .2 .2
P (don’t study hard) = 1 - .6 = .4 not happy
don't study
(b) P(good grade) = P(good grade|study hard) + .8
P(good grade|don’t study hard) = .6∙.6 + .4∙.2 = .36 + .08 = .44 .16
(also known as Law of Total Probability) good .36
.6 grade
.6 not good grade
22. a. b. c. d. study .4 .24
23. a. with replacement: P(GG) = (.6)(.6) = .36
.4
good .08
without replacement: P(GG) = (.6)(5/9) = 1/3 .2 grade
b. with replacement: P(BG) = (.4)(.6) = .24 don't
study not good grade
without replacement: P(BG) = (.4)(6/9) = 4/15 .8 .32
c. with replacement: P(BG) + P(GB) = (.4)(.6) + (.6)(.4) = .48
without replacement: P(BG) + P(GB) = (.4)(6/9) + (.6)(4/9) = 2(4/15) = 8/15

24. a. independent b. dependent

25. 0.16
26. Chips Frui Popcorn Total
t
Males 40 30 30 100
Female 110
30 20 60
s
a. Total
male 10/2170
≈ .476 50 b. prefers fruit 5/21 ≈ .238
90 210
c. a male who prefers fruit 1/7 ≈ .143 d. a male or prefers fruit 12/21 = 4/7 ≈ .571

e. a male given prefers fruit 3/5 f. prefers fruit given male 3/10

g. No. Explanation: P(male) ≠ P(male|prefers fruit).

Alternate explanation: P(male ∩ prefers fruit) = 1/7 ≠ P(male)∙P(prefers fruit) =
10/21 ∙ 5/21 = .113
27. a. P(C) = .60 + .25 = .85

b. We’re sampling without replacement, so we must make the assumption that 2 cars is less than
10% of the population of cars from which we’re sampling. That assumption paves the way
for claiming independence for the two vehicles. Then P(not straight ∩ not straight) = .4 2.

c. P(at least one goes straight) = 1 – P(neither goes straight) = 1– P(not straight ∩ not straight) =
1 – .42 = .84.

Page 50
 Glossary

Addition Rule: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive (or disjoint) Events: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) . An alternate
notation is .

Combination: a way of selecting several things out of a larger group, where order does not matter

Combination Rule: C(n, r) = nCr =

Complement Rule: (video 19) the probability that an event does not occur; 1 – P(A)

Complementary Events: mutually exclusive events whose probabilities sum to 1

Conditional Probability: the probability that an event, B, will occur given that another event, A, has
already occurred

Conditional Probability Rule:

Cumulative Relative Frequency: the cumulative proportion or the running total of frequencies

Dependent Events: when the occurrence of one event affects the occurrence of a second event

Empirical Estimate of Probability: (often just written Empirical Probability) an "estimate" that the
event will happen based on how often the event occurs after collecting data or running an experiment (in
a large number of trials).  It is based specifically on direct observations or experiences.
Equally Likely Outcomes: outcomes that occur with the same probability; i.e., landing on heads or tails
on a fair coin toss are equally likely outcomes

Event: a subset of a sample space

Experimental Estimate of Probability: the probability of an event occurring when an experiment was
conducted

Factorial (n!): n! = n(n – 1)(n – 2) . . . 3(2)(1)

Fundamental Counting Principle: f event M can occur in m ways and is followed by event N that can
occur in n ways, then event M followed by event N can occur in m n ways.

Independent Events: when the occurrence of one event does not affect the occurrence of a second event

Intersection: the intersection A ∩ B of two sets A and B is the set that contains all elements of A that
also belong to B (or equivalently, all elements of B that also belong to A), but no other elements.

Multiplication Rule: P(F∩E) = P(E)∙P(F|E)

Multiplication Rule for Independent Events: P(E∩F) = P(E)∙P(F) if and only if A and B are
independent events.

Mutually Exclusive Events: events that cannot occur at the same time; also called disjoint events

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Outcome: a possible result from a probability experiment

Permutation: a way of selecting several things out of a larger group, where order does matter

Permutation Rule: P(n, r) = nPr =

Probability: likelihood that an event will occur and is calculated by dividing the number of favorable
outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes

Random Process (Chance Experiment): any activity or situation in which there is uncertainty about
which of two or more possible outcomes will result

Random Variable: the numerical outcome of a random phenomenon

Sample Space: the set of all possible outcomes in an experiment

Theoretical (Exact) Probability: a ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the number of possible
outcomes

Trial: the single performance of an experiment

Union: everything in both sets

Zero factorial: one

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