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Eco Textual Learning Material - Module 5
Eco Textual Learning Material - Module 5
5.1 Objectives
The primary objective of this chapter is to define and explain the Investment Analysis,
i.e., Project valuation and Capital Budgeting Techniques. The chapter also covers the
Risk and Investment Analysis part, which includes Decision Tree Analysis and Concept
of Behavioral Economics. A unique feature of this chapter is that it explains the very
important concept of economics, i.e., Behavioral Economics. In most of the cases,
explanations are incorporated with mathematical examples.
5.2 Introduction
Any type investment is risky and investment decision is also difficult to make. It
depends on availability of money and information of the economy, industry and company
and the share prices ruling and expectations of the market and also of the companies. For
making such decision the common investors may have to depend more upon a study of
fundamentals rather than technical, although technical is also important. Otherwise they
will burn their fingers as happened in 1992 following the Harshad Mehta Scam and in
2001 following Ketan Parekh Scam. For this purpose, a study of company’s performance,
past record and expected future performance are to be looked into. It is necessary for
a common investor to study the balance sheet and annual report of the company or
analyze the quarterly or half yearly results of the company and decide on whether to buy
that company’s share or not. This is called fundamental investment analysis.
Payback technique
The payback measures the length of time it takes a company to recover in cash
its initial investment. This concept can also be explained as the length of time it takes
the project to generate cash equal to the investment and pay the company back. It is
calculated by dividing the capital investment by the net annual cash flow. If the net annual
cash flow is not expected to be the same, the average of the net annual cash flows may
be used.
For the Cottage Gang, the cash payback period is three years. It was calculated by
Capital investment
Cash Payback Period =
Average annual net cash flow
dividing the $150,000 capital investment by the $50,000 net annual cash flow ($250,000
inflows - $200,000 outflows).
The shorter the payback period, the sooner the company recovers its cash investment.
Whether a cash payback period is good or poor depends on the company’s criteria for
evaluating projects. Some companies have specific guidelines for number of years,
$150,000
= 3.0 years
$50,000
suchas two years, while others simply require the payback period to be less than the
asset’s useful life.
Notes
When net annual cash flows are different, the cumulative net annual cash flows are
used to determine the payback period. If the Turtles Co. has a project with a cost of
$150,000, and net annual cash inflows for the first seven years of the project are: $30,000
in year one, $50,000 in year two, $55,000 in year three, $60,000 in year four, $60,000 in
year five, $60,000 in year six, and $40,000 in year seven, then its cash payback period
would be 3.25 years. See the example that follows.
The cash payback period is easy to calculate but is actually not the only criteria for
choosing capital projects. This method ignores differences in the timing of cash flows
during the project and differences in the length of the project. The cash flows of two
projects may be the same in total but the timing of the cash flows could be very different.
For example, assume project LJM had cash flows of $3,000, $4,000, $7,000, $1,500, and
$1,500 and project MEM had cash flows of $6,000, $5,000, $3,000, $2,000, and $1,000.
Both projects cost $14,000 and have a payback of 3.0 years, but the cash flows are very
different. Similarly, two projects may have the same payback period while one project
lasts five years beyond the payback period and the second one lasts only one year.
Present Value of 1
4 5 4 4 9 1 9 2 1 5 3 7
2 0.961 0.924 0.907 0.890 0.857 0.826 0.797 0.769 0.743 0.718 0.694 0.671
2 6 0 0 3 4 2 5 2 2 4 9
3 0.942 0.889 0.863 0.839 0.793 0.751 0.711 0.675 0.640 0.608 0.578 0.550
3 0 6 8 8 3 8 0 7 6 7 7
4 0.923 0.8548 0.8227 0.7921 0.7350 0.6830 0.6355 0.5921 0.5523 0.5158 0.4823 0.451
8 8 7 7 0 0 5 1 3 8 3 4
5 0.905 0.821 0.783 0.747 0.680 0.620 0.567 0.519 0.476 0.437 0.401 0.370
7 9 3 5 6 9 4 4 1 1 9 0
6 0.888 0.790 0.746 0.705 0.630 0.564 0.506 0.455 0.410 0.370 0.334 0.303
0 3 0 2 2 5 6 5 4 4 9 3
7 0.870 0.759 0.710 0.665 0.583 0.513 0.452 0.399 0.353 0.313 0.279 0.248
6 9 1 7 5 2 3 6 8 9 1 6
8 0.853 0.730 0.676 0.627 0.540 0.466 0.403 0.350 0.305 0.266 0.232 0.203
5 7 4 8 3 5 9 6 0 0 6 8
9 0.836 0.702 0.644 0.591 0.500 04 2 4 1 0.360 0.307 0.263 0.225 0.193 0.167
8 6 9 6 2 1 6 5 0 5 8 0
10 0.820 0.675 0.613 0.558 0.463 0.385 0.322 0.269 0.226 0.191 0.161 0.136
3 6 4 9 2 5 0 7 7 1 5 9
11 0.804 0.649 0.584 0.526 0.428 0.350 0.287 0.236 0.195 0.161 0.134 0.112
3 6 8 7 9 5 5 6 4 9 6 2
12 0.788 0.624 0.556 0.497 0.397 0.318 0.256 0.207 0.168 0.137 0.112 0.092
5 6 0 8 1 6 7 6 5 2 2 0
13 0.773 0 .600 0.530 0.468 0.367 0.289 0.229 0.182 0.145 0.116 0.093 0.075
0 6 8 3 7 7 2 1 2 3 5 4
14 0.757 0.577 0.505 0.442 0.340 0.263 0.204 0.159 0.125 0.098 0.077 0.061
9 5 3 1 5 3 6 7 2 5 9 8
15 0.743 0.555 0.481 0.417 0.315 0.239 0.182 0.140 0.107 0.083 0.064 0.050
0 3 3 0 2 4 7 1 9 5 9 7
16 0.728 0.533 0.458 0.393 0.291 0.217 0.163 0.122 0.093 0.070 0.054 0.041
4 9 6 1 9 6 1 9 0 8 1 5
17 0.714 0.513 0.436 0.371 0.270 0.197 0.145 0.107 0.080 0.060 0.045 0.034
2 4 4 3 3 8 6 8 2 0 1 0
18 0.700 0.493 0.415 0 .350 0.250 0.179 0.130 0.094 0.069 0.050 0.037 0.027
2 6 3 5 2 9 0 6 1 8 6 9
19 0.686 0.474 0.395 0.330 0.231 0.163 0.116 0.082 0.059 0.043 0.031 0.022
4 6 5 7 7 5 1 9 6 1 3 9
20 0.673 0.456 0.376 0.311 0.214 0.148 0.103 0.072 0.051 0.036 0.026 0.018
0 4 8 9 5 6 7 8 4 5 1 7
(1) - (2)
When net cash flows are not all the same, a separate present value calculation must
be made for each period’s cash flow. A financial calculator or a spreadsheet can be
used to calculate the present value. Assume the same project information for the Cottage
Gang’s investment except for net cash flows, which are summarized with their present
value calculations below.
The difference between the NPV under the equal cash flows example ($50,000 per
year for seven years or $350,000) and the unequal cash flows ($350,000 spread unevenly
over seven years) is the timing of the cash flows.
Most companies’ required rate of return is their cost of capital. Cost of capital is the
rate at which the company could obtain capital (funds) from its creditors and investors.
If there is risk involved when cash flows are estimated into the future, some companies
add a risk factor to their cost of capital to compensate for uncertainty in the project and,
therefore, in the cash flows.
Most companies have more project proposals than they do funds available for projects.
They also have projects requiring different amounts of capital and with different NPVs.
In comparing projects for possible authorization, companies use a profitability index.
The index divides the present value of the cash flows by the required investment. For the
Cottage Gang, the profitability index of the project with equal cash flows is 1.54, and the
profitability index for the project with unequal cash flows is 1.56.
Present Value of Cash Flows
Profitability Index =
Required Investment
4 5 4 4 59 91 29 72 21 75 33 97
2 1.941 1.886 1.859 1.833 1.78 1.73 1.69 1.64 1.60 1.56 1.52 1.49
6 1 4 4 33 55 01 67 52 56 78 15
9 1 2 0 71 69 18 16 59 43 65 22
4 3.807 3.629 3.546 3.465 3.31 3.16 3.03 2.91 2.79 2.69 2.58 2.49
7 9 0 1 21 99 73 37 82 01 87 36
5 4.713 4.451 4.329 4.212 3.99 3.79 3.60 3.43 3.27 3.12 2.99 2.86
5 8 5 4 27 08 48 31 43 72 06 36
6 5.601 5.242 5.075 4.917 4.62 4.35 4.11 3.88 3.68 3.49 3.32 3.16
4 1 7 3 29 53 14 87 47 76 55 69
7 6.472 6.002 5.786 5.582 5.20 4.86 4.56 4.28 4.03 3.81 3.60 3.41
0 1 4 4 64 84 38 83 86 15 46 55
8 7.325 6.732 6.463 6.209 5.74 5.33 4.96 4.63 4.34 4.07 3.83 3.61
2 8
5 7 66 49 76 89 36 76 72 93
9. 8.162 7.435 7.107 6.801 6.24 5.75 5.32 4.94 4.60 4.30 4.03 3.78
2 3 8 7 69 90 82 64 65 30 10 63
10. 8.982 8.110 7.721 7.360 6.71 6.14 5.65 5.21 4.83 4.49 4.19 3.92
6 9 7 1 01 46 02 61 32 41 25 32
11. 9.786 8.760 8.306 7.886 7.13 6.49 5.93 5.45 5.02 4.65 4.32 4.03
8 5 4 9 90 51 77 27 86 60 71 54
12 10.57 9.385 8.863 8.383 7.53 6.81 6.19 5.66 5.19 4.79 4.43 4.12
53 1 3 8 61 37 44 03 71 32 92 74
13 11.34 9.985 9.393 8.852 7.90 7.10 6.42 5.84 5.34 4.90 4.53 4.20
84 6 6 7 38 34 35 24 23 95 27 28
14 12.10 10.56 9.898 9.295 8.24 7.36 6.62 6.00 5.46 5.00 4.61 4.26
62 31 6 0 42 67 82 21 75 81 06 46
15 12.84 11.11 10.37 9.712 8.55 7.60 6.81 6.14 5.57 5.09 4.67 4.31
93 84 97 2 95 61 09 22 55 16 55 52
16 13.57 11.65 10.83 10.10 8.85 7.82 6.97 6.26 5.66 5.16 4.72 4.35
96
77 23 78 59 14 37 40 51 85 24 67
17 14.29 12.16 11.27 10.47 9.12 8.02 7.11 6.37 5.74 5.22 4.77 4.39
19 57 41 73 16 16 96 29 87 23 46 08
18 14.99 12.65 11.68 10.82 9.37 8.20 7.24 6.46 5.81 5.27 4.81 4.41
20 93 96 76 19 14 97 74 78 32 22 87
19 15.67 13.13 12.08 11.15 9.60 8.36 7.36 6.55 5.87 5.31 4.84 4.44
85 39 53 81 36 49 58 04 75 62 35 15
20 16.35 13.59 12.46 11.46 9.81 8.51 7.46 6.62 5.92 5.35 4.86 4.46
14 03 22 99 81 36 94 31 88 27 96 03
Assume the Cottage Gang has expected annual net income of $5,572 with an
investment of $150,000 and a salvage value of $5,000. This proposed project has a 7.2%
annual rate of return ($5,572 net income ÷ $77,500 average investment).
Annual Rate of Return = Estimated Annual Net Income/Average Investment
7.2% = $5,572 / $77,500
(1) (2)
Revenues $310,000
(A) Straight-line with cosl of % 1 MMK.X). salvage value of SS.(XK). and a service life
of seven years.
$150,000 - $5,000
155,000
The annual rate of return should not be used alone in making capital budgeting
decisions, as its results may be misleading. It uses accrual basis of accounting and not
actual cash flows or time value of money.
and investigate the possible outcomes of choosing those options. They also help you to
form a balanced picture of the risks and rewards associated with each possible course
Notes of action. This makes them particularly useful for choosing between different strategies,
projects or investment opportunities, particularly when your resources are limited.
Uses:
You start a Decision Tree with a decision that you need to make. Draw a small square
to represent this on the left hand side of a large piece of paper, half way down the page.
From this box draw out lines towards the right for each possible solution, and write a
short description of the solution along the line. Keep the lines apart as far as possible so
that you can expand your thoughts.
At the end of each line, consider the results. If the result of taking that decision is
uncertain, draw a small circle. If the result is another decision that you need to make, draw
another square. Squares represent decisions, and circles represent uncertain outcomes.
Write the decision or factor above the square or circle. If you have completed the solution
at the end of the line, just leave it blank.
Starting from the new decision squares on your diagram, draw out lines representing
the options that you could select. From the circles draw lines representing possible
outcomes. Again make a brief note on the line saying what it means. Keep on doing this
until you have drawn out as many of the possible outcomes and decisions as you can see
leading on from the original decisions.
Once you have done this, review your tree diagram. Challenge each square and circle
to see if there are any solutions or outcomes you have not considered. If there are, draw
them in. If necessary, redraft your tree if parts of it are too congested or untidy. You should
now have a good understanding of the range of possible outcomes of your decisions.
An example of the sort of thing you will end up with is shown in Figure 1:
Figure 1
5.6 Summary
Investment is very risky decision, so it needs priory analysis before finalizing. It
depends on availability of money and information of the economy, industry and company
and the share prices ruling and expectations of the market and also of the companies. For
making investment decision the investors are depend more on a study of fundamentals
rather than technical. It is necessary for a common investor to study the balance sheet
and annual report of the company or analyze the quarterly or half yearly results of the
company and decide on whether to buy that company’s share or not. This is called
fundamental investment analysis. Capital budgeting is the process of spending capital
on long-term projects and on other projects requiring significant investments of capital.
Capital is usually limited in its availability. So, capital budgeting is individually evaluated
using both quantitative analysis and qualitative information. Most of the capital budgeting
analysis uses cash inflows and cash outflows rather than net income calculated using the
accrual basis. Decision Trees analysis is also useful tools for choosing best one among
available several courses of actions. This makes them particularly useful for choosing
between different strategies, projects or investment opportunities, particularly when your
resources are limited.
Further Readings
Hirschey, Economics for Managers, Cengage Learning
Baumol, Microeconomics: Principles & Policies, 9th editions, Cengage Learning
Froeb, Managerial Economics: A Problem Solving Approach, Cengage Learning
Mankiw, Economics: Principles and Applications, Cengage Learning
Gupta, G.S. 2006, Managerial Economics, 2nd Edition,Tata McGraw Hill
Peterson, H.C and Lewis, W.C. 2005, Managerial Economics, 4th Edition, Prentice
Hall of India
R Ferguson, R., Ferguson, G.J and Rothschild,R.1993 Business Economics
Macmillan.
Varshney,R.Land Maheshwari, 1994 Manageriaql; Economics, S Chand and Co.
Chandra, P.2006, Project: Preparation Appraisal Selection Implementation and
Review, 6th Edition, Tata McGraw Hill.