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THE HIGHWAY DESIGN AND MAINTENANCE STANDARDS SERIES
I
I I I I
THE HIGHWAY DESIGN AND MAINTENANCE STANDARDS SERIES
Vehicle Operating Costs

Evidence from Developing Countries
Andrew Chesher and Robert Harrison
Publishedfor The WorldBank
The Johns Hopkins University Press

Baltimore and London
© 1987 The International Bank for Reconstruction
and Development / The World Bank
1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.
All rights reserved

Manufactured in the United States of America
The Johns Hopkins University Press

Baltimore, Maryland 21211
First printing December 1987
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions

expressed in this study are the results of research
supported by the World Bank, but they are entirely
those of the authors and should not be attributed
in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated
organizations, or to members of its Board of
Executive Directors or the countries they represent.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-PublicationData
Chesher, Andrew, 1948-

VehicleOperating Costs: evidence from developing countries
by Andrew Chesher and Robert Harrison.
p. cm. - (The Highway design and maintenance standards series)
Bibliography:p.
1. Motor vehicles-Developing countries-Cost of operation.
I. Harrison, Robert, 1943- . II. Title. III. Series.
TL151.5.C48 1987 361.6'1'072-dcl9 87-22178
ISBN 0-8018-3588-7
Foreword
An effective road transportation network is an important factor in economic and social development.
It is also costly. Road construction and maintenance consume a large proportion of the national budget,
while the costs borne by the road-using public for vehicle operation and depreciation are even greater.
It is therefore vitally important that policies be pursued which, within financial and other constraints,
minimize total transport costs for the individual road links and for the road network as a whole. To do
this meaningfully, particularly when dealing with large and diverse road networks, alternatives must be
compared and the tradeoffs between them carefully assessed. This in turn requires the ability to quantify
and predict performance and cost functions for the desired period of analysis.
Because of the need for such quantitative functions, the World Bank initiated a study in 1969 that
later became a large-scale program of collaborative research with leading research institutions and road
agencies in several countries. This Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Study (HDM) has
focused both on the rigorous empirical quantification of the tradeoffs between the costs of road
construction, road maintenance, and vehicle operation and on the development of planning models
incorporating total life-cyclecost simulation as a basis for highways decisionmaking.
This volume is one in a series that documents the results of the HDM study. The other volumes are:
Vehicle Speeds and Operating Costs

Models for Road Planning and Management
Road Deterioration and Maintenance Effects

Models for Planning and Management
The Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model

Volume 1. Description of the HDM-III Model

Volume 2. User's Manual for the HDM-III Model
Road-user costs are by far the largest cost element in road transport. Improvements in road
conditions, although costly, can yet pay substantial dividends by reducing vehicle operating costs and
hence generate large net benefits to the national economy as a whole. Thus, expressing vehicle operating
costs in relation to road characteristics-geometry and pavement condition-is the logical approach.
For certain cost components, especially fuel consumption, the required data can be obtained through
controlled experiments, whereas for others, especially vehicle maintenance costs, extensive road user
surveys are needed. Both approaches were used in the HDM studies in Kenya, Brazil, and India and in
the study in the Caribbean sponsored by the British Transport and Road Research Laboratory. The
resulting body of knowledge on road-user costs is enormous. It covers conditions on three continents,
with diverse highway conditions, and in radically different economic environments.
This volume considers vehicle operating cost equations in an economic context and analyzes
experimental and survey data through statistical means. The findings are interpreted not only in the
mechanistic sense, but also in the sense of understanding how economic influences bear on a firm's
operating decisions. Firms' responses to highway conditions depend not only on vehicle design and
performance, but also on the costs incurred under alternative operating policies and thus on the prices
of inputs and on the nature of the competitive market in which transport services are sold. These
considerations are of crucial importance when the cost relationships are applied in new environments
with different price configurations. A particularly important application of this principle is in the
evaluation of depreciation and interest costs. These costs are difficult to determine through experimen-
tation and surveys, but they can be assessed through judicious use of data on maintenance and other
costs, as well as in light of factors such as tariffs, taxes, and legislation.
iii
This volume is to some extent a companion to VehicleSpeeds and Operating Costs:Models for Road
Planning and Management, which is based on an aggregate-mechanistic methodology that considers
vehicle operating cost equations essentially in a mechanistic context. These two approaches are
complementary and elucidate different aspects and different components of the road-user cost complex.
Most of the relationships described in this volume are included in the HDM-III model, sometimes
as alternatives to relationships derived on a different basis. But they can also be used on their own and
are particularly helpful for comparing the relationships in the various studies that were derived on
different premises. In this sense, they help to explain such differences and the technical, economic,
political, and other factors that caused them.
Clell G. Harral Per E. Fossberg

Principal Transport Economist Highways Adviser
iv
Contents
Preface ix
Part I. Vehicle Operating Costs: Background, Theory, and Estimation I

Chapter 1. Vehicle Operating Cost Studies 3
Chapter 2. Vehicle Operating Costs: Theory and Estimation 11
2.1 VehicleOperating Costs: Theory 13
2.1.1 Choice of scrapping date 17
2.1.2 Choice of utilisation and fleet size 23
2.1.3 The effect of highway conditions on the
cost of provision of transportation 25
2.2 Statistical Analysis of User Cost Data 28
Appendix. AModel for VehicleOperating Costs 34
A2.1 Optimal replacement policy, vehicle value,
depreciation, and interest costs 35
A2.2 Choice of utilisation and fleet size 38
A2.3 The sensitivity of costs to highway conditions 39
Part II. Estimates of Cost Components 43

Chapter 3. The User Cost Studies 45
3.1 The Background to the Studies 45
3.2 Research Organisation 57
3.2.1 The Kenyan study,1971-75 57
3.2.2 The Brazilian study, 1975-82 58
3.2.3 The Caribbean study, 1977-82 60
3.2.4 TheIndianstudy, 1977-82 62
3.3 Data Collection 65
3.3.1 Usercostdata 65
3.3.2 The measurement of highway characteristics 68
Chapter 4. Vehicle Speeds 75

4.1 The BrazilSpeed Model 76
4.2 Car and Light Goods VehicleSpeeds 79
4.3 Bus Speeds 88
4.4 Truck Speeds 89
4.4.1 Medium trucks 92
4.4.2 Heavy and articulated trucks 95
4.5 Concluding Remarks 95
Appendix. VehicleSpeed Equations 100
A4.1 Kenya 100
A4.2 Caribbean 102
A4.3 Brazil 103
A4.4 India 113
V
Chapter 5. Fuel and Lubricant Costs 117
5.1 Fuel Consumption Models 118
5.2 Fuel Consumption Equations and Predictions:
Cars and LightGoods Vehicles 121
5.3 Fuel Consumption Equations and Predictions:
Buses and Trucks 129
5.4 Fuel Consumption: Concluding Remarks 142
5.5 Lubricant Costs 142
Appendix A. Fuel Consumption Equations as Reported
by the Four Studies 146
A5.1 Kenya 146
A5.2 Caribbean 148
A5.3 Brazil 150
A5.4 India 155
Appendix B. Engine Oil Consumption Equations as Reported
B5.1 Kenya and Caribbean 161
B5.2 Brazil 161
B5.3 India 162
Appendix C. Tables of Speed and Fuel Consumption
Predictions 165
Chapter 6. Tire Costs 193

6.1 TireCostData 196
6.2 EstimationofTireCostEquations 198
6.3 Tire Consumption: Cars and Light Goods Vehicles 200
6.4 Tire Costs: Buses and Trucks 204
Appendix. Tire Equations as Reported in the Four Studies 217
A6.1 Kenya 217
A6.2 Caribbean 218
A6.3 Brazil 219
A6.4 India 222
Chapter 7. Maintenance Costs 227

7.1 Collectionof Maintenance Cost Data 230
7.2 Statistical Analysisof Maintenance Cost Data 232
7.3 Maintenance Parts Costs: Estimated Equations 233
7.3.1 Maintenance parts costs: cars and
light goods vehicles 234
7.3.2 Maintenance parts costs: buses 242
7.3.3 Maintenance parts costs: trucks 247
7.4 Maintenance Labor Costs: Estimated Equations 255
7.5 The Effect of Highway Geometry on Maintenance Costs 260
Appendix A. Maintenance Parts Equations as Reported
A7.1 Kenya 270
A7.2 Caribbean 272
A7.3 Brazil 273
A7.4 India 277
vi
Appendix B. Maintenance Labor Equations as Reported
B7.1 Kenya 281
B7.2 Caribbean 282
B7.3 Brazil 282
B7.4 India 283
Part III. Total Vehicle Operating Costs 287
Chapter 8. The Calculation of Transport Costs 289

8.1 Relationshipsbetween VehicleValue and VehicleAge 291
8.2 VehicleUtilisation 298
8.3 Depreciation, Interest, andMaintenanceCosts 301
Appendix A. Relationships between VehicleValues
and VehicleAge 310
A8.1 Kenya 310
A8.2 Caribbean 310
A8.3 Brazil 311
A8.4 India 312
Appendix B. OptimalVehicle Lives 313
Chapter 9. The Costs of Transport Services 317

9.1 Costs of Provision of Transport Services 317
9.2 Transferability and Use of Cost Equations 330
Appendix. Tablesof Total Costs andTheir Components 335
Cost tables calculated by the VAmethod 338
Cost tables calculated by the OL method 348
Annex. Accidents 357

References 369
vii
Acknowledgments
Many individuals and organizations have provided us with assistance and encouragement both
during the writing of this book and earlier while we were singly or jointly employed as consultants to
the World Bank, the United Nations Development Programme, and the Texas Research and Development
Foundation and contributing to the research whose results are reported here. We are grateful to them
all for their help. We should like to thank particularly Henry Hide of the United Kingdom Transport and
Road Research Laboratory; L. R. Kadayali, formerly of the Central Road Research Institute of India and
now Chief Engineer, Planning, of the Ministry of Shipping and Transport of India; and the staff of
Empresa Brasileira de Planejamento de Transportes, GEIPOT, Brazil, all of whom have responded
quickly and helpfully to the numerous questions that we have put to them. We are grateful to Alan
Walters, whose advice when he was economic adviser to the World Bank's Transportation Department
influenced us greatly, and to W. Ronald Hudson and Bertell C. Butler for their advice and encouragement
during our involvement in the research in Brazil. Our debt to Mari Dhokai, Val Harvey, Mary Harthan,
and Pat Shaw, who typed, laid out, and revised a difficult manuscript quickly and accurately is
enormous. Sabine Shive provided excellent editorial advice and directed the final preparation of the
camera-ready copy. Finally, we record our thanks to the World Bank and particularly to C. G. Harral,
who saw the need for this book and who asked us to write it.
viii
Preface
This book presents information concerning the relationships between vehicle operating costs and
highway conditions derived from four studies performed in Kenya, the Caribbean, Brazil, and India in
the 1970s and early 1980s.
The levels of transport costs and the amounts by which they are altered when highway conditions
change depend on two main factors. The first is the production technology facing firms, in particular,
the types and designs of vehicles to which firms have access. The second is the economic environment
that firms face, in particular, relative prices of inputs to the production of transportation, such as fuel,
tires, labor, and vehicles, and the nature of the transport markets that firms serve. The first part of this
book sets out an economic model of firms managing vehicle fleets within which these influences can be
examined. This model is an aid to understanding the results of the studies' research into vehicle operating
costs reported in Part II and provides a framework within which to consider the statistical analysis of
vehicle operating costs data, which typically comes from firms using vehicles in competitive business
environments.
The second part of this book reports and interprets the results of the four major research projects
which were designed to study the influences on vehicle operating costs. It opens with Chapter 3, which
describes the enviromnents in which the studies were performed and the ways in which their research
was organized and their data collected. Chapter 4 contains the studies' estimates of relationships between
vehicle speeds and highway characteristics. The equations presented there relate to free flow speeds and
were mostly obtained from roadside observation of the speeds of vehicles under normal operating
conditions. In each study estimates of the effects on speeds of surface roughness, gradient, and curvature
were obtained. There are some similarities in the studies' results, but speed levels do differ somewhat
across the four countries, as is to be expected given their differing economic environments and the
differences in the specifications of vehicles found in the four countries. The speed equations provide an
input to the fuel consumption equations, presented in Chapter 5.
The extensive fuel consumption equations were for the most part obtained from experiments
conducted over diverse types of highway using instrumented fleets of specially purchased test vehicles.
The vehicles considered range from cars to 40-ton articulated trucks, and the equations obtained allow
the effects on fuel consumption of surface roughness, gradient, and in some cases curvature to be
predicted with high accuracy. Differences in vehicle specifications lead to differences in the fuel
consumption equations across studies, but broad similarities come through. All the studies' equations
write fuel consumption as a function of vehicle speed, and, to predict fuel consumption, the speed models
of Chapter 4 can be used.
Chapter 6 contains equations with which to predict tire costs. Tire costs and maintenance costs,
considered in Chapter 7, present the greatest difficulties for the analyst attempting to produce robust,
reliable equations. Firms can choose the amount of maintenance that they perform, trading off
maintenance expenditures against depreciation costs, and their choice of policy can be expected to be
influenced by the prices of inputs to maintenance activities and by the price at which vehicles are
purchased. The equations presented in Chapters 6 and 7 were obtained using data gathered in large-
scale surveys of commercial road users carried out over periods ranging from one to three years.
Estimates of the effects on tire and maintenance costs of vehicle age and surface roughness are
presented, and, for some vehicles classes, estimates of the effects of highway geometry are included.
The third part of this book examines total vehicle operating costs. To compute these it is necessary
to consider expenditures associated with vehicle purchase and replacement. Fleets of vehicles are major
investments, and funds devoted to their purchase could be used in alternative profitable activities. In
ix
providing transport services, vehicles deteriorate and their value declines, though the decline is offset to
some extent by maintenance expenditures. The consequent interest and depreciation costs are important
components of the cost of provision of transport services, but the studies provide rather little direct
evidence on these costs. Chapter 8, which opens Part III, examines ways in which they can be calculated,
exploiting the model developed in Chapter 2.
The final Chapter 9 contains illustrative calculations of the costs of provision of transport services
per unit distance, thus bringing together the results contained in Part II, the methods described in
Chapter 8, and information on prices of inputs, where possible gross and net of taxes. The studies'
predictions of the effects of highway conditions on total costs are compared and evaluated, and some
guidance is given concerning which of the studies' many equations to use in what circumstances. The
problem of applying the studies' results in new environments is also considered.
x
PART I
Vehicle Operating Costs:
Background, Theory, and Estimation
I~ ~~~~~~~~~ Il
CHAPTER1
Vehicle Operating Cost Studies
This book provides information concerning the costs of

transportation on non-urban highways and the relationships between these
costs and characteristics of highways like surface roughness, and vertical
and horizontal geometry. The sources of the information presented here are
four major road user cost studies performed between 1970 and 1982 in Kenya,
the Caribbean, Brazil, and India. In these studies road user costs were
investigated in considerable depth. Surveys of commercial road users were
performed, surveys on a far larger scale than had been conducted prior to
the 1970s. Large scale experiments were undertaken, aimed at determining
the fuel consumption of cars, buses and light and heavy goods vehicles
under alternative highway conditions, and considerable effort was devoted
to obtaining data on vehicle speeds and their responses to highway
conditions. The resulting body of knowledge concerning road users' costs is
enormous, spanning three continents, diverse highway conditions and
radically different economic environments.
The studies were performed in order to provide information to use

In benefit cost analysis of highway investment projects and many of their
results are Incorporated in the Highway Design and Maintenance Model (HDM
Ill), developed by the World Bank, designed to aid In evaluating highway
investments and described In a companion volume in this series (Watanatada
et al. 1987).
Benefit cost analyses of highway investments proceed by

calculating streams of costs associated with highway construction and
maintenance and streams of benefits that arise in consequence of the
investments. Most of these benefits come about as a result of reductions
in the costs per unit output of provision of transportation which affect
the supply side of markets for transport services. Other benefits arise
from Improvements in the quality of transportation. These affect the
demand side of the market for transport services and are particularly
important in passenger transportation, demand for which may be increased
quite substantially as a result of reductions In journey times and improved
comfort and safety. Most of the results obtained In the four country
studles bear on the changes in vehicle operating costs attendant on highway
Improvements and thus on the supply side of transport markets. The studies
provide Information concerning vehicle speeds which Is useful in coming to
conclusions concerning time savings but the questlon of valuing such
savings and similar Issues relevant to the demand side of transport markets
are not considered In this book.
Highway engineers have, for many years, been concerned to discover

the relationships between highway design, condition and road user costs -
Indeed, vehicle operating costs for horse drawn vehicles were
3
4 VEHICLE OPERATING COST STUDIES
published over one hundred years ago (Law and Klnnear-Clark 1881). Motor
vehicles' costs first received attention In North America after the First
World War, when Agg studled the performance of a small test fleet fitted
with fuel flowmeters and chart distance recorders. Agg's work (Agg 1923),
Influenced both the design and reporting of subsequent fuel consumption
experiments, and his appointment as Director of the Iowa State College
Engineering Station initiated a series of vehicle cost studies. By 1935,
Its staff had reported on the effect of geometry on operating costs (Agg
and Carter 1928), on truck operations In Iowa (Winfrey 1933), on tractive
resistance and road surface types (PaustIan 1934), and on tire skidding
characteristics, surface types and safety (Moyer 1934).
One of the earliest surveys of operating costs was reported by

Moyer and Winfrey (1939), who examined the fuel, oil, maintenance and tire
costs of rural mall carriers and Moyer and Tesdall (1945) complemented this
study with the results from tire wear experiments. The period to 1960 saw
North American and European research concentrated on the relationships
between highway geometry, vehicle performance and costs. Saal (1942)
extended his experimental fuel consumption data using survey Information -
an Important development - while Coquand (1958), Sawhill and Firey (1960)
and Claffey (1960) developed models and reported results of speed and fuel
experiments Incorporating highway and vehicle characteristics. Interest In
total operating cost levels and In tire, maintenance and depreclation costs
stimulated road user surveys, Including Kent (1960) and Stevens (1961).
Surveys of users in developing countries Include those reported by the
Indian Roads Congress (1961, 1971) and Bonney and Stevens (1967) whose data
were obtained In East Africa.
In the early 1950s, the first appraisal manual Incorporating road

user costs was produced by the American Associatlon of State Highway
Officlals (AASHO 1952). Although it gave data only for passenger cars In
rural areas, and some limited Information on truck costs, It did help to
establish the economic evaluation of highway Improvements at a planning
level. However, many of the technical relationships became obsolete and
Its usefulness was limited by the 1960s despite an update In 1959
incorporating new unit prices. It was ultimately Winfrey (1963) who
synthesized the available experimental and survey operating cost data to
produce a pubilcation which profoundly Influenced highway planning In the
United States and the developing world over the next 15 years.
Winfrey's comprehensive review of the American vehicle operating

cost literature revealed considerable gaps and deficiencies which were
filled by data from his own records on vehicle costs, discussions wlth
speciallsts In the motor industry, and by judicious use of theoretical
reasoning concerning operating costs. Winfrey's main sources of
Information are given In Table 1.1 The baslc work was revised in 1969 to
include a section on accident costs.
Despite the considerable efforts devoted to collecting U.S. and

European vehicle operating cost Information, by 1965 only fuel consumption
could be predicted at all accurately and most of the information avallable
was not well sulted to use outside North America and Western Europe. The
growing need for economic appraisal of highway projects in developing
VEHICLE OPERATING COST STUDIES 5
Table 1.1: Data Sources for Wlnfrey (1963)
Item Primary Sources OtherSources
Fuel Clafbey (1960)

Sawhill andFirey (1960) Winfrey (peonal test)
Sawhill (1962) Correspondencewith speciait in car companies
Moyer (1939)
Engine Oil Moyer (1939) Wintrey (1962)

Kent (1962)
Stevens (1961)
Maintenance Stevens (1961) Wlntrey (judgement)
Tires Moyer and Tesdall (1945) Wintrey (judgemen based on power requirements
Kent (1962) for curves andgrades)
Gough (1966)
Gough andShearer (1966)
Hershey (1957)
Depreciation Stevens (1961) Wintrey (judgement)
Gravel Adjustments Moyer (1939) Wlntrey (judgement)

Claffey (1960)
Sawhill (1962)
Source: Hide (1976).

regions led the World Bank to sponsor a literature review and the
preparation of cost tables. The results were published by de Weille (1966)
whose main sources are given In Table 1.2.
It Is evident that Winfrey's (1963) text was a major source and

using this and other, mainly the American research, de Weilie was able to
assemble a set of basic tables with a common structure. Tables were
prepared for seven vehicle types, three cars and four trucks and
accompanied by indicative prices. No data concerning buses were provided,
an Important omission for most highway studies In developing countries.
The largest car and all the trucks were those used by Winfrey, the small
car was a Volkswagen 1200 and the "average" car was a "composite" of the
other two car types. Costs were given for these vehicles operating at a
series of constant or "benchmark" speeds on paved, gravel and earth
surfaces. Using the indicative prices, costs for fuel and oil consumption,
tire wear, depreciation and interest, maintenance parts, maintenance labour
and occupants time were given for each combination of speed and surface
type.
After the publication of de Weille's work It was clear that

results based on American vehicles and environment, many of them out of
date, were Inadequate for evaluating highway Investment projects in
developing countries and that the only way to correct the deficiency was to
conduct a program of user cost research outside the United States.
In 1969 the World Bank initiated a program of research to develop

models relevant to conditions in developing countries with which to examine
the trade-offs between Initial construction costs, future maintenance
expenditures and road user costs for alternative highway design and
maintenance strategies. The results concerning vehicle operating costs are
the primary focus of this book.
Phase 1 of the program was carried out by staff of the

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the World Bank, and the British
Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL). The report covering this
phase (Moavenzadeh et al. 1971) gave a structure within which construction,
malntenance and road user costs could be interrelated In order to evaluate
the costs and benefits associated with alternative highway design and
maintenance strategies. The report concluded that t available
engineering relationships with which to predict highway deterioration, and
the economic relationships with which to predict road user costs were
Inadequate for use In developing countries and Phase II of the program was
designed to remedy these deficiencies. Research institutions In developing
countries were encouraged to support research Into user costs and, where
possible, pavement deterioration. The result was the series of studies
undertaken In Kenya, Brazil, the Eastern Caribbean and India between 1971
and 1982 whose results concerning vehicle operating costs are the subject
of this book. The studies are described In Chapter 3 and Part 11 presents
many of their results.
Since 1970 other vehicle operating cost results have been reported
which are relevant to low volume roads although they are not easily
compared with the results reported here because of differences In the
measurement of highway characteristics, particularly roughness.
VEHICLE OPERATINGCOSTSTUDIES 7
Table 1.2: Data Sources for de WeIlle (1966)1
Item Primary Sources Other Sources
Speed MSHO Red Book (1959) Odier (1962)

Moyer (1939)
Saal (1950)
Winfrey
Fuel - speed Winfrey

- rise + fall Winfrey
- curvature Winfrey
- surface type Winfrey Odier (1962)
Oil - speed Winfrey

- surface type Doyen (1960)
Tires - speed Wintrey

- surface type Winfrey Doyen (1960)
Deprecation de Weille (judgement using

- speed Winfrey and United States
othicial data, e.g. U.S.
Bureau of the Census (1962)
and Liston and Allen (1964))
Maintenance
- speed Winfrey
-surface type Winfrey
| Doyen (1960)
Notes:
1. All references to Winfrey are to Winfrey (1963).
2. See table 1.4 for Winfrey's sources.
Source: de Weille (1966).

Abelson (1973) examined de Weille's work, and identified four areas in

which supplementary data and relationships were needed to make the findings
applicable to developing countries. These areas were the effect of the
market economy (especially wages and prices) on operating cost levels, the
calibration of technical relatlonships to local conditions, the value of
time savings and accident and overhead costs and they were discussed with
reference to Thailand and Illustrated with user cost data from Thailand and
from other countries. Daniels (1974) reported the measurement of vehicle
operating costs in Africa by the Economist Intelligence Unit of the United
Kingdom, mostly in the late 1960s. Particular attention was directed
towards how operating costs are best collected, the determination of
maintenance and depreciation costs, and of vehicle service life and
utilisatlon.
Australian research in the field of vehicle operating costs during

the 1970s was directed towards relating vehicle characteristics to pavement
damage as well as vehicle operating costs to highway characteristics. Lack
(1968) provided one of the earliest models, which influenced subsequent
formulation of the World Bank models. Soloman (1970) reported on optimum
axle loads for Australlan roads and stimulated research on the broader
question of commercial vehicle (particularly truck) designs, (Fry et al.
1974, 1975, 1976). Vehicle operating costs were studied between 1968 and
1976, first by Pelensky et al. (1968; 1970) for cars, then by Soloman and
Conroy (1974) for commercial vehicles and Ker (1976), who estimated truck
operating costs from fleet data.
The second edition of the United States Forest Service Vehicle

Operating Cost Model (Sullivan 1977) influenced the speed and fuel
modelling carried out using the Brazilian data in the early 1980s,
described In Chapters 4 and 5. The model simulates vehicle travel along a
route and requires a detailed road description together with extensive
information on vehicle characteristics. It contains constraints on vehicle
performance derived from physical principles and assumptions concerning
what "prudent" drivers will do when faced with different combinations of
highway characteristics. Times for acceleration, braking or coasting are
determined and the associated speeds, travel times, forces and energy
requirements are calculated. These energy requirements are converted to
instantaneous fuel consumption and tire wear and with other operating cost
components to give predictions of total vehicle costs.
In 1981, an updated version of the Federal Highway Authority

Vehicle Operating Cost and Pavement Type manual was published (Zaniewskl et
al. 1981) revising the earlier version based on Winfrey (1969) and
Claffey's work (1971). Look-up tables reported operating costs for a range
of vehicle types at constant speeds, and over speed cycles. Zaniewski
conducted a series of fuel experiments on paved roads using a test fleet of
four cars, a pickup and three trucks. He also modelled tire wear using the
procedures developed by Barreire et al. (1974) and Delia Moretta (1974) for
use In the Forest Service Model (Sullivan 1977).
This book Is concerned with operating costs for motorized vehicles

but it should be recognised that the evaluation of design and maintenance
strategies must take account of the local modes in use on the highway
network being studied. In some developing countries, traffic flows consist
of small engined vehicles or animal powered vehicles which were not covered
VEHICLE OPERATING COST STUDIES 9
In the four country studles. Rogers (1983) reports productivity rates and
costs per passenger or tonne kilometer for a variety of such modes In
Indonesia. Some Informatlon on low powered vehicles is provided by the
Indian study but not reported here.
Chapter 2 which follows concludes Part I. It sets out on economic

structure within which to Interpret the studies' results, given in Part Ii,
Estimates of Cost Components. It also provides a framework within which
the problem of computing total vehicle operating costs, including costs
associated with vehicle purchase and replacement, can be considered and It
will be exploited In Part ill, Total Vehicle Operating Costs, In which
these Issues arise.
I
I
CHAPTER 2
Vehicle Operating Costs: Theory and Estimation
Most of this book is concerned with estimates of vehicle operating

costs and their relationship to highway characteristics, obtained during
the four user cost studles carried out between 1972 and 1982 in Kenya, the
Caribbean, Brazil, and India. The relationships are presented In Part 11
of this book and in Part III we examine how the equations can be combined
to obtain estimates of total operating costs and we compare the studies'
predlctions of the effects of highway conditions on these total costs. In
this Chapter, which concludes Part 1, we describe the methods used to
analyse the studies' data and we set the operating cost equations that the
studies estimated In the context of an economic theory of the transport
firm.
The statistical procedures used to produce the studies' results

are described here because If the procedures and their limitations are not
understood then the results which occupy Part 11 may be misinterpreted.
The usefulness of setting vehicle operating cost equatlons In an economic
context may be less obvious - certainly such considerations are not to the
fore In de Weille's (1966) predecessor to this volume, nor In the reports
of the four studles - but we believe that the exercise Is essential, for
the following reasons.
Most vehicle operating cost data (fuel consumption data are the
only Important exception) are collected from firms that operate vehicles
during the course of their normal business activities. Firms' responses to
highway conditlons are dependent on vehicle design and performance, but
also on costs Incurred under alternative operating policies and thus on
prices of Inputs to the provislon of transportation. Thus speed and
loading decisions and choices of vehicle specification are determined in
part by prices of vehicles, fuel, malntenance,labour, and so forth. In
order to place correct Interpretations on vehicle operating cost data
gathered from firms, to choose suitable procedures with which to analyse
the data, and to understand the limitations of such data it Is necessary to
understand how economic Influences bear on firms' operating decisions.
These considerations become crucially Important when one tries to apply
cost relationships In new environments In which firms face different price
configurations and vehicle designs. The structure developed In this
chapter will be useful when we examine the problem of transferring cost
relationships In Part 111.
There is another reason for considering vehicle operating cost

equations In an economic context. The four studies provide little
Information on depreciation and Interest costs which are Important
components of the cost of provision of transportation. By working within
the framework of an economic model of the transport firm It Is possible to
11
12 THEORY AND ESTIMATION
find ways of remedying this deficiency, exploiting Information on

maintenance and other costs to deduce the magnitude of depreciation and
interest costs and their sensitivity to highway conditions.
We should also note that the vehicle operating cost equations

reported in Part 11 are derived for use In economic appraisal of the
benefits arlsing from highway Investments. The way In which the studles'
results bear on concepts that arise In such appralsals Is therefore of
Interest and to conclude this introductory section we consider this
briefly.
In economic appraisals of highway investments the impact of

highway conditions on costs of transport services per unit output Is of
central Interest. Where transport services are purchased In markets
supplied by transport firms, transport costs per unit output can be
expected to be closely related to prices at which transport services are
sold. In competitive markets, transport services will be sold at a price
equal to their marginal cost of production. If transport firms have
monopoly power then the relationship between costs per unit output and
prices will be less direct, prices and amounts of transportation provided
being determined by the equality of marginal revenue and marginal cost. in
both cases, and more generally, knowledge of the relationships between
highway conditions and costs per unit output of the provision of transport
services in helpful In determining the responses of prices of transport
services to changes In highway conditions brought about by highway
Investments. It Is through such price changes that many of the benefits
arising from highway Investments flow for, in general, changes in transport
prices lead to changes in prices of goods and services In the production of
which transport services are an Input and to changes In volumes of trade.
Similar considerations arise when transportation Is provided by

firms on their own account, as Is common In many countries, especially
where general haulage Is subject to governmental regulation. Such firms,
which operate fleets of vehicles dedicated to their own needs, will
experience transport cost changes as a result of highway Investments and
these will generally lead to changes In prices of the firms' products and
the amounts of those products that are traded. Private Individuals can
purchase transport from transport firms but they can also provide
transportation on their own account, using private cars rather than
purchasing services from bus and taxi companies. Here transport cost
changes lead to changes In welfare as a result of alterations to budget
constraints and there may be changes In the amount of transportation
employed and the mode of transport used.
The results reported in Part 11 concern the Influence of highway

conditions on transport costs. To determine the benefits that result from
highway Investments that change transport costs, knowledge of the demand
side of transport markets is required. This Is not provided by the four
studies whose results are the focus of this book and we shall not be
concerned with the demand for transportation. However, It should be noted
that highway Investments can result In changes In the "quality" of
transport services. Thus travel may be faster and more comfortable and
there may be a lower rlsk of accident after a highway Improvement. These
THEORY AND ESTIMATION 13
"quality" changes affect the demand for transport services and the supply
side oriented studies that we report in Part II paid little attention to
these effects. Limited results are available on accident rates and these
are brlefly summarized In an annex to the book.
An important consideration arising from the preceding discussion

that Is relevant to the results in Part II, and to their application Is the
measurement of the flow of transport services and thus of the output of
transport firms. Since output is a flow it has to be measured on a per
time period basis, and since vehicle owners can use vehicles of different
capacities and, with any given vehicle, can vary loads carried, one will
usually want to measure the flow of output in tonne, volume, or passenger
kilometers per time period, depending on the nature of the transport
service provided. In the four studies operating costs were calculated on a
per vehicle, per kilometer basis and adjustments will generally be required
to allow for loads carried and for vehicles' capacities.
To determine costs per unit output for any given output flow we
require to know the flow of output per vehicle per time period. This is
because the flow of costs associated with the capital embodied In the firm
depends on the number of vehicles It operates and on the other capital
resources it uses. When large numbers of vehicles are used to produce a
flow of output, so that output per vehicle per time period is low, Interest
costs will be high, but the correspondingly low rates of utilisation per
vehicle will usually lead to lower fuel and other costs. How firms
determine utilisation and fleet size Is considered in the next section. in
calculating costs per unit output in Part IlIlwe use information on speed
responses to changes in highway conditions produced by the four studies.
It is important to note that the rate of flow of output per time period
does not appear as an influence on operating costs in the studies' results,
nor in our calculation of costs per unit output in Part ill. Some of the
statistical procedures described In the concluding section of this chapter
preclude the appearance of such effects since they Involve only wlthin
company comparisons of costs and highway conditions. It may be that, when
the scale of a firm's operations Is large, costs per unit output are low,
because of economies of scale in, for example, the provislon of maintenance
facilities. However, the studles' results provide us with no evidence on
this Issue and In the model we Introduce now we proceed assuming that costs
per unit output are Independent of the rate of flow of output per time
period; equivalently that average and marginal costs of production of
transport services are, at least in the long run, equal.
2.1 VEHICLE OPERATING COSTS: THEORY
The analysis of this section Is based on the Idea that firms seek
to minimise the cost of production of transport services, and is carried
out largely without reference to the demand side of the market for
transport services. Consequently much of the analysis is applicable to
firms that operate fleets of vehicles but whose main business Is not the
provision of transport services, and to fIrms with a degree of monopoly
power in their output markets or who operate in markets in which prices or
output are regulated.
Firms have considerable discretion concerning the way In which

they produce transport services. In the short run they are constrained to
some extent by historic choices that are expensive to alter quickly and
which anyway they may wish to leave unaltered because of uncertainty
regarding the permanence of short run changes in demand conditions and in
factors affecting their costs. Thus in the short run firms may be
unwilling to alter the size of their fleet or the specification of the
vehicles that they run. However they can quickly change utilisation which
we define as output per time period per vehicle, by altering loads carried,
speed of travel, and hours of operation per time period and they can
advance or delay vehicle scrapping. In the long run firms can adjust fleet
size and vehicle specification, purchasing more or less robust, or
powerful, or more or less capacious vehicles, generally, of course, facing
different purchase prices for vehicles of different specifications. We
regard firms as making these policy decisions with a view to minimising the
cost of production of transport services.
When highway conditions change then it Is likely that new policles

will emerge. Faced with a highway deterioration, firms will react so as to
minimise the impact of the deterioration on their costs. In the short run
there may be little that they can do If fleet size Is not variable, though
there may be output responses, but In the long run speeds and loads can be
varied, fleet size being adjusted accordingly and the firm has the option
of purchasing more robust vehicles, trading off a higher vehicle purchase
price against reduced maintenance costs. Faced with a highway Improvement,
cost minimising firms will, at any level of output, seek to maximise the
benefit they can obtain through lowering costs. So, on improved roads
higher speeds and, perhaps, heavier loads may be observed. Indeed some
running costs, for example fuel costs per kilometer, may rise - even
maintenance costs may not fall greatly after an improvement. This Is of
little concern to the vehicle owner who, in consequence of increased
utilisatlon, experiences for example lower interest and wage costs per
kilometer. One of the results to emerge from the analysis below is that,
In the long run, running costs per unit output, excluding costs associated
with vehicle replacement and the opportunity cost of the capital employed
by the enterprise, may actually fall as highways worsen. This has
Important implications for the Interpretation of the results of user cost
studies and will be discussed further later.
The distinction between short and long run adjustments to highway

conditions Is Important because in user cost surveys, in which emphasis Is
often placed on finding companies with well-organised records, and
companies operating vehicles on fixed homogeneous routes, there is a
tendency to find companies that are well adjusted to the highway conditlons
that they face. We can therefore expect the relationships between vehicle
running costs and highway characteristics obtained from user surveys to
reflect more the long run responses of vehicle owners to highway conditions
than the short run responses. The situation is represented In Figure 2.1
In which the line LL shows the "long run" relationship between per unit
output costs of provision of transport services and "highway conditions."
Starting well adjusted to highway conditions h1 the firm faces the

short run relationship between costs per unit output and highway
conditions, s11s. DeterioratlonsIn highway conditionsresult In short run

Increases In costs along the relativelysteep function s1s1 but In the long
run cost reductionscan be achleved,bringing the firm back down on to the
long run relationship LL. Highway improvements lead to llmitedcost
reductionsalong the relativelyflat part of the relationships1s, In the
short run but In the long run to further cost reductionswhich bring the
firm back down on to LL. Startingwell adjusted to highway conditionsh2
the firm faces the short run relationship s2s2 in Figure 2.1 and we see
that the long run relationshipLL is the envelope of the set of short run
relationshipsnecessarilybelng "less convex" than those relationships.
Some of the user cost relationships obtained In the studles and

reported In Part II were obtained by "experimental"methods. The essence
of these methods is that many featuresof vehicle operation are held fixed
Figure 2.1: Short and Long Run Vehicle Operating Cost Relationships
Cost of provision of transport

services per unit output
LI
h2 hI highway conditions
"high" "poor"
quality quality
so that the effect of highway conditions can be Isolated. These

relationships tend to approximate short run cost relationships because, as
they stand, they do not capture vehicle owner's optimal responses to
highway conditions. In using these relationships some care is needed in
modelling vehicle owners' responses to highway conditions. For example,
speed of travel Is obviously influenced by the physical limitations of
vehicles, but a driver's speed reduction on encountering a rough route is
essentially a response to the (possibly very large) increase in running
costs that he would experience were he to maintain his original speed.
Were malntenance labour and parts free, the driver might be less careful
when encountering poor quality roads, as anyone who has driven a hire car
on poor quality roads (and paid the hire charge) will appreciate.
In the next subsection we develop a simple model of the cost

minimising transport firm to aid the interpretation of vehicle operating
cost equations and to provide a framework within which to consider the
problems Involved in using such equations in Investment appraisals. In
considerlng this latter Issue the role played by reiative prices of inputs
to transportation Is of Interest because cost minimising firms' responses
to changes In highway conditions will generally depend upon the relative
prices of different inputs to vehicle operation. Where fuel is cheap, fuel
cost will not weigh so heavy in the firms' considerations and speeds may be
higher, particularly where vehicles are expensive to purchase. Highway
Improvements may lead to higher speeds in some countries, but in others,
where maintenance labour and parts are very expensive relative to new
vehicles, the owner may take the opportunity provided by a highway
Improvement to reduce maintenance costs per kilometer, accepting only a
small reduction per kilometer In time related costs such as interest
charges. The studies reported later in this book have concentrated on
estimating vehicle operating cost relationships for distinct cost
components, sometimes trying to model physical consumptions of inputs to
vehicle operation, on the basis that the resulting equations can then be
freely applied outside the environments in which they were obtained,
applying unit prices relevant to the new environment, and adding up to
produce a total vehicle operating cost relationship which Is intended to
have wide validity. Expressing consumptions of Inputs in physical units
and modelling consumptions of Inputs separately removes prices from the
cost equations but the Influence of prices of inputs to vehicle operation
Is embodied In the data obtained In user cost studies. Consequently
application of the results In very different economic environments requires
some care.
In most developing countries the transport industry is capital

Intensive. Expensive vehicles, often imported and purchased with scarce
foreign exchange, are used to move goods and people and the successful
transport firms are those that manage effic;ently the large capital
Investment that the firms' vehicles represent. Improperly used, vehicles
deteriorate and, unless maintenance Is performed, they will soon fail to
provide the service for which they were bought. But maintenance Is costly
to perform, particularly In countries where maintenance labour wage rates
are high or where good quality spare parts are expensive, or in short
supply, and there comes a point In a vehicle's life when It is optimal
either to scrap It or to sell It to another firm.
Firms' decisions concerning when to scrap vehicles are important

for they determine both the dates at which expensive vehicle purchases have
to be made and the magnitude of maintenance expenditures. Delaying
scrapping Increases maintenance costs since these rise through the life of
a vehicle, but puts back the date at which a new vehicle must be bought.
We start our analysis of firms' policy with regard to the provision of
transport services by examining, in the next subsection, vehicle scrapping
decisions. The results obtained there are important In tying down the
concepts of depreciation and Interest costs and they will be used In Part
liI when we come to consider combining the results concerning cost
components given in Part II. In the subsequent subsections we consider
utilisation and fleet size decisions and finally the Influence of highway
conditions on firms' policies and thus on costs. The notation used in this
chapter and the more technical derivations are given In the appendix to
this chapter.
In reality scrapping decisions are made jointly with decisions

concerning utilisation, fleet size and the optimal time path of maintenance
expenditures through the vehicle's life. Some flavor of the complexity of
this Joint decision can be obtained from Nickell's (1978) analysis of
replacement, maintenance and depreciation. Here we start by abstracting
from many of thsse problems by supposing that utillsation, fleet size and
the time path of maintenance expenditures are given. Under these
circumstances when should a cost minimising firm scrap a vehicle?
2.1.1 Choice of Scrapping Date
We suppose that a firm is to produce q units of output per time

period, for example, q passenger kilometers per year, or q tonne or cubic
meter kilometers per year, or, on fixed routes, perhaps q tonne or
passenger trips per year. If the price at which the firm sells Its output
Is constant and equal to p then its stream of revenue is constant, equal to
pq per time period and at a discount rate r, the present value of Its
revenue stream is:
(1) PVR(q) - pq/r.
Here and later we use continuous discounting.
The firm's expenditure stream Is typically not constant because at

discrete points in time It has to make vehicle purchases. We let PVC(q)
denote the present value of the expenditure stream associated with the
production of q units of output per time period in perpetuity and
define C as the constant expenditure stream whose present value Is
PCV(q). The relationship between C and PVC(q) is:
(2) PVC(q) - C(q)/r.

The firm Is assumed to minimise the present value of the cost of

production of whatever output stream it actually produces, and we suppose
that at any point in time it operates a fleet of N vehicles each producing
a constant flow of output equal to u units of output per time period. We
shall often talk of "u" as utilisation but it should not be confused with a
common usage of the word signifying kilometers travelled per year. Of
course more kilometers per year may lead to higher values of 'u" but so can
Increases In passengers or goods carried per kilometer. The simple
relationship between output per time period, q, fleet size, N, and
utilisatlon per vehicle, u, is:
(3) q - Nu.
In practice the firm will alter fleet size (N) and utilisation (u) to suit
the conditions that It faces and we investigate Its cost minimising policy
In this regard In the next subsection. For the moment N and u are regarded
as fixed and the firm's optimal policy regarding vehicle scrapping Is
examined.
The vehicles that the firm uses are assumed to be identical,

purchased new at a price VP and scrapped s time periods after purchase. We
proceed assuming that the complete fleet Is scrapped every s time periods,
giving, for the present value of the stream of vehicle replacement
expenditures under continuous discounting: N.VP/(C1e-rs). In reality
firms will operate vehicles of different ages at any point In time but for
most of the analysis we can proceed as if the fleet were purchased and
scrapped en masse without altering our conclusions and benefiting from the
resulting simplicity in notation.
The other costs the firm Incurs per vehicle per time period are
assumed to depend upon vehicle age, t, and, for a vehicle t time periods
old we write the rate of flow per time period of these costs as m(t). We
refer to these costs as "running costs." Since m(t) Is a rate of flow, the
running costs Incurred in the Interval Et1 , t2 ] of a vehicle's life
t2
are given by J m(t)dt. In general m(t) will be Increasing In t - Indeed
If it Is not then, In a stationary environment, vehicles will never be

scrapped. A typical time path for these running costs Is shown In Figure
2.2 which exhibits a "saw toothed" pattern, the rate of flow of costs
dropping at fleet replacements which occur every s time periods.
The function m(t) encompasses fuel, lubricant and tire costs,

maintenance costs, the wages of drivers - all the costs Incurred per
vehicle except vehicle replacement costs. The four studies focussed almost
exclusively on these "running costs." Generally m(O) will be non-zero,
for, of course, new vehicles require for example fuel, tires, and drivers.
The function m(t) rlses as vehicles age because of increases In malntenance
costs and perhaps because older vehicles consume more fuel, Incur higher
Figure 2.2: Time Path of Flow of Running Costs
Rate of flow of running

costs ner time period
m(t)
0 s 2s 3s time
tire costs and so forth. An Important influence on m(t) will be the amount
of use to which a vehicle is put, for m(t) gives the rate of flow of costs
per time period per vehicle, which must be higher for vehicles producing
more output per time period (e.g., travelling more kilometers per time
period or carrying heavier loads per trip). In the next subsection we
consider firms' optimal choice of vehicle utilisation which must be
dependent upon the sensitivity of m(t) to changes in output per time period
per vehicle.
The present value of the stream of running costs, the Initial part
of which is pictured for a single vehicle in Figure 2.2, Is:
s
1-eNJ m(t)e-rtdt
lers
and adding this to the present value of the stream of vehicle purchase
costs gives PVC(q), the present value of the stream of costs incurred In
producing q units of output per time period (see, e.g., Nash 1976):
(4) PVC(q) 1 N-r 5 Vp + J m(t)ert dt
Cost minimising firms choose vehicle lives, s, to minimise (4) and If the
function m(t) is well-behaved then firms' optimal scrapping policy can be
determined by examining the first order condition obtained by setting the
first derivative of PVC(q) with respect to s equal to zero.
In the appendix to this chapter we show that vehicle lives, s,

satisfy:
(5) Nm(s) - rPVC(q)
which has a finite solution for s so long as the rate of flow of running
costs Increases sufficiently fast as vehicles age. The right hand side
of (5) Is equal to the constant (over time) flow of costs, C(q), whose
present value Is PVC(q) and we can regard rPVC(q) as the cost of production
per time period. The condition (5) requires the owner to scrap the fleet
at the date when Its per time period running cost rises to be equal to the
per time period cost of production. Delaying scrapping past this date
Increases per time period running costs by introducing higher than optimal
running costs. Advancing scrapping before this date increases per time
period costs of production by bringing forward the dates at which vehicle
purchases have to be made.
Of course in reality scrapping decisions are more complicated than

this because firms are uncertain about the future and because the running
cost time path Is often discontinuous, In which case the simple calculus
techniques used above are not appropriate. The function m(t) contains
elements due to maintenance expenditures and in practice at certain times
in a vehicle's life its owner may choose to make a significant reinvestment
In the vehicle by carrying out a major overhaul and even a partial
reconstruction of the vehicle. At such times the rate of flow of running
costs per time period, m(t), Is very high, far exceeding the rate of flow
of revenues per time period, but the owner's action Is sensible If after
this overhaul he experiences a sufficiently reduced stream of running
costs. Roughly speaking such overhaul expenditures will be made If the
present value of subsequent net cost reductions exceeds the current cost of
the overhaul, and scrapping will occur when all such possibilities have
been exhausted. Despite - or perhaps because of its simplicity, the model
outlined above does allow us to get a flavor of the optimal scrapping
decision and to see revealed the influences on this decision.
The four studies whose results are presented In Part II provide

only limited direct Information concerning depreciation and Interest costs.
However, in some applications these costs can be calculated using equation
(4). The term NVP/(1-e-rs) in (4) gives the present value of the stream of
vehicle purchase and replacement costs and this is equivalent to a constant
per time period flow at the rate:
(6) Dl (q) - rNVP/(1 - erS).
At a zero discount rate this simplifies to NVP/s which Is a per time period
flow of depreciation costs and when there is no scrapping (i.e., equation
(5) has no finite solution) DT(q) simplifies to rNVP which Is the per time
period flow of Interest costs on the initial (and only) fleet purchase. In
other cases DT(q) can be interpreted as the constant per time period flow
of depreciation and interest costs, whose present value Is equal to the
present value of the vehicle purchase and replacement cost stream. It can
be calculated If we know vehicle prices, the discount rate and vehicle
lives.
Information on vehicle lives can be difficult to obtain,

particularly if we wish to know how vehicle lives vary with highway
conditions. The four studies provide no direct Information on this. The
analysis so far allows us to deduce optimal vehicle lives given Information
on the time path of running costs, m(t), vehicle prices, VP, and the
discount rate. In the appendix we show that condition (5) Is equivalent
to:
(7) VP =
f - (t)rt
W(i(s)- m(t))e dt
0
which can be solved for optimal vehicle life s. It Is then possible to

calculate the smoothed flow of depreciation and Interest costs, Dl(q) or to
calculate these cost flows as a function of vehicle age.
The latter Is achieved by using (7) to define the value, V(0), of a

new vehicle and defining the value of a t time period old vehicle, V(t) by:
(8) Vt) -rt f (ms) - m(w))e rw dw.

t
V(t) Is the value of a t time period old vehicle In the sense that It Is a
lower bound on the price at which a cost minimising vehicle owner would be
prepared to sell a t time period old vehicle and an upper bound on the
price at which he would buy such a vehicle (see the following appendix).
Defining the rate of flow of depreciation costs as the negative of

the rate of change of a vehicle's value, D(t) - -dV(t)/dt, differentlating
(8) and Identifying l(t) - rV(t) as the rate of flow of Interest costs we
have the decompositlon:
(9) m(s) rPVC(q) , C) _ D(t) + l(t) + m(t).

rn(s)-N N
This equation tells us how to combine depreciation, Interest and

running costs to produce total costs, and, given a solutlon for vehicle
life, obtained as described above, and knowledge of the time path of
running costs, It allows us to calculate depreciation and Interest costs as
functions of vehicle age. We consider this further In Part Ill.
Figure 2.3 Illustrates the determination of optimal vehicle lives.

The increasing, curved llne In Figure 2.3 depicts the time path of running
costs, m(t). By virtue of equatlon (7), the shaded area which falls above
m(t) and below m(s), when discounted, equals new vehicle price. High
vehicle prices cause m(s) - C(q)/N to be high and lead to relatively long
vehicle lives.
Figure 2.3: Vehicle Value and Running Cost Flows
Costs per
time unit
mn(s) - m(t)
O s time
Conversely factors leading to high running costs, like high

maintenance labour wage rates will tend to lead to short vehicle lives. Of
course, highway conditions are a major Influence on the time path of
running costs, m(t), and we can expect running costs to rise as highway
conditions worsen. In the absence of any other response this would lead to
shorter vehicle lives, but other responses are likely to occur to offset
this effect. To some extent firms can respond by adjusting maintenance
strategies in the face of changes in highway conditions, changing not just
the level but the path of m(t) through time. Formal analysis of this
response Is very difficult (see Nickell 1978), and will not be attempted
here. A response which Is easier to analyse, and which is likely to be of
more importance in practice, involves changing utilisation - either vehicle
speeds or loads, or both. Of course, the penalty for lowering utilisation
in the face of worsening highway conditions while maintaining output is the
necessity to run a larger fieet of vehicles. However, if lowering
utilisation drops the running cost stream sufficiently then such a policy
is worthwhile. Changes in utilisation in response to changes in highway
conditions are Important in Interpreting and applying vehicle operating
cost equations, and in comparing experimental and survey based results. In
the next subsection we consider the joint utilisation and scrapping
decision, holding highway conditions fixed, subsequently considering
responses to changes In highway conditions.
2.1.2. Choice of Utillsatlon and Fleet Size
When deciding how to produce any given flow of output, the firm
can elect to use few vehicles at a high level of utilisation or many
vehicles at a low level of utilisatlon. The equation q - Nu, describes the
choices available. It Is clear that m(t) Increases with utilisation - that
Is that running costs per time period per vehicle Increase as output per
time period per vehicle increases. More kilometers travelled per time
period means higher fuel costs and tire and maintenance costs per time
period. To the extent that util5satlon increases are brought about by
Increases In running speeds or loads carried then we can expect m(t)/u to
Increase with utilisation as well, this ratio being running costs per unit
output per vehicle. It Is this ratio, or something close to It, that Is
modelled in the four user cost studies whose results are reported In Part
11. The major focus of the studles Is the relationship between expenditure
flows per unit output, like m(t)/u, and highway characteristics. To
examine utilisation decisions, we proceed with the model used earlier,
making the dependence on utilisation explicit by rewriting m(t) as m(u,t),
and examine the conditions governing optimal utilisation, fleet size, and
scrapping. It might appear at first sight that scrapping decisions are
Independent of the utilisation and fleet size decision but in general this
Is not the case.
In what follows, utilisatlon Is assumed to be constant through the

life of a vehicle. This is a major simplifying assumption which Is perhaps
not too far from the truth. Vehicles In the Brazilian survey showed fairly
constant utilisation over the major part of their lives when compared
within companies. We also proceed regarding fleet size, N, as continuously
variable. In practice It must take Integer values but as long as the scale
of production of transportation Is reasonably large, the simplifying
I
assumption that N Is continuous Is Innocuous. Replacing fleet size, N In

(4) by q/u gives the present value of the cost of producing the flow of
output q:
(10) PVC(q) q 1 |VP + m(u,t)e rtdt
This Is to be regarded as a long run cost function - fleet size Is

varlable - but any fixed costs flowing at a constant rate FC per time
period can be Included by adding to (10) the term FC/r which is the present
value of such costs, and economies or diseconomies of scale related to
fleet size could be Introduced by making FC a function of fleet size, N.
The firm's optimal utilisation, u, and vehicle life, s, are

obtained by minimising PVC(q) In (10) with respect to u and s, fleet size
being obtained using N - q/u. Assuming the function PVC(q) Is well behaved
the conditions governing u and s are obtained as solutions to the first
order conditions glven by setting the derivatives of (10) with respect to u
and s equal to zero. The resulting conditions require:
(11) PVC(q) 1
r mu (u,
t)e
-rt
dt
q 1- -rs O
(12) uPVC(q) m(u, s)

q r
the latter being the optimal scrapping condition derived earlier with fleet
size N, replaced by q/u. Vehicle lives are now determined Jolntly with
utillsation as a solution to (11) and (12) and In general the scrapping and
utilisation decisions cannot be made Independently. Some Intuition on this
can be gained by Imagining what happens If utilisatlon Is lowered. Recall
that In this cost minimisation problem output Is fixed - so low utilisation
means operating a larger fleet. But this In turn requires greater capital
expenditures when vehicles are replaced. Thus lowering utilisation may
make delaying scrapping optimal even though higher running costs are
experienced, because, by delaying scrapping, the date at which expensive
vehicle purchases have to be made Is put forward Into the future. Were
vehicles cheap to purchase, lowering utilisation might lead to advancing of
scrapping dates.
We have Introduced utilisatlon Into the model because we can

expect firms' responses to changes In highway conditlons to Involve
significant adjustments In utilisation. It Is this Issue which we examine
In the next subsection.
2.1.3 The Effect of Highway Conditions on the Cost of Provislon of

Transportation
In this section we examine how changes in highway conditions

affect the costs of the cost minimising firm. Of particular Interest are
the responses that firms make In order to avoid excessive cost increases
when highways deteriorate and the influences that prices have on these
responses. The first of these Issues Is of concern because most of the
results reported In Part II are obtained from firms which are well adjusted
to the highway conditions that they face. The second Issue is of interest
when we come, In Part liI, to consider the transferability of vehicle
operatIng cost equations.
Highway conditions enter the model developed In the preceding

subsections through the function m(u,t) which describes the path of running
costs (fuel, tire, maintenance costs and so forth) through a vehicle's life
under alternative rates of utillsation. Deterioration In highways leads to
an Increase In running costs If utilisation Is held fixed and generally to
an Increase in running costs per unit output per vehicle, m(u,t)/u. But
faced with a deterioration or an Improvement In highway conditions, firms
are likely to react by changing utilisation (thus altering fleet size) and
by advancing or delaying vehicle scrapping.
To examine the effect of changing highway characteristics on

fIrm's policy we totally dIfferentiate the first order conditions that
define optimal utilisation and scrapping policy, given In the following
appendix, requiring these conditions tc hold before and after the change in
highway conditions, first Introducing the additional variable "h" Into the
running cost function m(u,t). The variable "h" represents highway
conditions, large values of h being taken to Indicate poor quality highways
and higher costs per unit time period per vehicle at any age or
utilisation. In practice "h" might be taken to Indicate surface condition
or highway geometry - Indeed one might wish to regard "h" as a vector of
highway characteristics. Here we leave "h" loosely defined and regard it
as scalar.
in order to obtain results that are more easily understood we now

Introduce a simplification, requirlng m(u,t) to be a product of functlons
of utilisation and age. Many of the vehicle running cost equations
estimated In the four studies and presented In Part II have this form.
Further, we write that component of running costs that depends on vehicle
age as uf(u,h) where f(u,h) is measured per unit of output so that uf(u,h)
is measured per unit time period. Thus we have:
(13) m(u,t) - uf(u,h)a(t).
Here a(t), taken to be an Increasing functlon of vehicle age, determines the

"shape" of the time path of running costs. It Is shifted multiplicatively
up or down as utilisation or highway conditions alter, by an amount
depending upon the function f(u,h). In fact the function f(u,h) a(t) Is
very close to the per vehicle per kilometer cost relationships reported In
Part Ii.
Since poor quality highways are associated with high costs per
unit output we assume fh(u,h) - 5f(u,h)/6h > 0 and we also assume that
fu(u,h) - 5f(u,h)/6u > 0, that Is, that Increasing output per time period
results In Increases in running costs per unit output. Later we will
assume that fuh(u,h) - 62 f(u,h)/5u6h > 0 arguing that the Increment to per
unit output running costs from increasing output per time period Increases
as highways worsen.
With this additional structure, the present value of the cost of

producing the output stream q is:
(14) PVC(q) - 1 - VP + u f(u,h) A(s)

u l -rs IS
where A(s) - f a(t)e dt. The equations whose solution gives optimal
utilisatlon and vehicle lives are developed In the following appendix.

They are:
(15) VP - u2 fu(u,h) A(s)
(16) VP - u f(u,h) B(s)
where B(s) - f (a(s) - a(t))e dt.

0
As highway conditions (h) alter, utilisatlon (u) and vehicle lives

(s) alter so as to maintain equality in (15) and (16). We show In the
appendix that, as highway conditions worsen, either utillsation falls or
vehicle lives are reduced or both. Stronger statements are not possible
without stronger assumptions but In practice we can expect utillsation to
fall as highway conditions deteriorate, with some adjustment In vehicle
lives, and this has important implications when we come to consider the
interpretation of the results reported In Part II. There are a number of
Issues to be considered here.
First, consider the results on fuel consumption, which are

obtained largely from experimental data. Fuel costs, expressed per unit
distance are a component of per unit output running costs, f(u,h), If
distance travelled per time period Is taken to measure output per vehicle
per time period. The experiment based equations Include vehicle speed as
an explanatory variable, sometimes vehicle load as well, factors which were
controlled when the experIments were performed. Thus the equations that
the studies report for fuel consumption and its relation to highway
conditions are Informative about the simple partial derivative(s) fh(u,h).
The equations In Part II relating to vehicle speeds were obtained

by analysing data derived from roadside observation of vehicles. Speed is
an Important determinant of utilisation, along with load carried and hours
of operation per time period, and we can expect observed speeds to be
Influenced by economic factors. This suggests that speed models should be
applied In new environments with care, for speed predictions obtained using
the studies equations may be unreliable If relative prices are very
different from those observed In the four studies. The problem is easily
seen In a very simple model In which vehicles are regarded as generating
just fuel and Interest costs.
If we use the sort of fuel consumption model estimated in Kenya,

the Caribbean and India, then costs per kilometer per vehicle at speed V
kilometers per hour, for vehicles operating H hours per year are:
a1 V)+rVP
C - Pfa +- -+ a2V 2 + VH
Here ao, a1 and a2 are coefficients (see Chapter 5 In Part II for typical
values), pf is the unit price of fuel, VP is the price of a new vehicle and
r Is the per time period discount rate. Cost minimising speed is:
rVP 11/3
V - pf-H+ a1
, 2a 2
and we see that vehicle speeds are a concave, Increasing function of the
relative price of vehicles and fuel. Even In the absence of differences In
vehicle design and fuel quality we can expect to see different speeds where
relative prices are substantially different.
The lubricant, tire and maintenance cost results reported in Part

11 were developed from survey data obtained from firms who were generally
well adjusted to the highway conditions that they face. Thus we can expect
these data to reflect costs after adjustment of utilisatlon and other
aspects of company policy along the lines described earlier. The equations
do not Include vehicle speeds as explanatory variables nor, except in a
very few cases, vehicle loads. We have to conclude that these survey based
equations relating costs per vehicle per kilometer of components of running
costs to highway conditions are informative about components of the
derivative: df(u,h)dh after allowance for adjustments In utilisation,
vehicle lives and so forth. Since:
df d
Th- (u,h) -fU(U,h)Uh + fh(u,h)
and since we can generally expect du/dh to be negative, we can expect to

see smaller effects for highway conditions in survey data than In
experimentaldata (df(u,h)/dh< fh(u,h)). Indeed, It Is even possible for
df(u,h)/dh to be negative If utilisation responses are sufficlently large
and It Is certainly possible for components of running costs to show
apparentlyperverse relationshipswith highway conditions. For example,a
highway Improvementwhich causes speeds and loads to increasesubstantially
may well lead to an Increase in fuel costs per unit output with reductions
In maintenance and capital related costs per unit output outweighing the
increase. These arguments suggest that It may be naive to expect to see
substantialeffects for highway conditlonson all elements of running costs
in data derived from surveys of firms. As we will see in Part 11 many
elements of running costs are relatively Insensitiveto highway geometry.
However, speeds are sensitive to geometry and poor geometric design
undoubtedly leads to higher costs per unit output, the effect passing In
large part through capital related costs.
We have consideredhow running costs vary with highway conditions

and how firms might respond to changes In highway conditions by adjusting
utilisation, fleet size and vehicle lives. In the final section of this
chapter we describe the proceduresused to analyse the four studies' data.
The preceding discusslonwill be relevant there, and when we come In Part
11 to consider the results that the studies reported.
2.2 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF USER COST DATA
In the four user cost studies carried out in India, Brazil, the
Caribbean and Kenya most cost Items were studied using data obtained from
companies participatingIn road user surveys. Though survey data on fuel
costs were obtained In all four studies, the primary sources of fuel
consumption data were series of experiments performed using Instrumented
vehicles. In the Brazilian study survey data on vehicles' annual
kilometerageswere investigated and, In the Indian study, data on the
operating speeds of survey vehicle were obtalned from timetablesand
schedules. However, In all four studies the major source of Informationon
vehicle speeds was data obtained by roadside observation of passing
vehicles. In this section we examine some of the problems that arise in
analysing experimentalfuel, roadside speed and user survey cost data and
describe the statistical methods that were used. Survey data present
different and more substantialproblems than do either the experimentally
obtained fuel consumptiondata or the roadside speed data. Consequently,
most of this section Is devoted to a discussionof the analysis of survey
data. First we comment briefly on the statisticalmethods applied to the
experimentalfuel and roadsidespeed data.
In the Kenyan study all the fuel experimentaland speed data were
analysed using ordinary least squares applied to quite simple relationships
while In the Caribbean study welghted least squares estimates were
calculated. In the Indian study, ordinary and weighted least squares
estimates were produced. In the Kenyan, Caribbean, and Indian studies

vehicle speed was included In fuel consumption equations In non-linear
form, fuel consumptlon being written as a function of the inverse of speed
and speed squared but the resulting relationship Is linear In parameters
and is estimated by ordinary or weighted least squares.
A variety of summary statistics accompany the studies' ordinary

least squares estimates, those avallable In any particular case depending
on the reporting style of the study concerned. Generally goodness of fit
statistics are reported, along with standard errors, that Is, estimates of
standard deviations of estimated coefficients. Where available these
statistics are reported in appendices to the chapters in Part II In which
results are presented. Additionally, an estimate of the standard deviation
of the disturbance or error term (denoted s) Is usually reported, this
error term belng the deviation of the dependent variable from its
regression function.
In the Brazilian study the equation relating vehicle speed to

highway characterlstics Is non-ilnear In parameters and was estimated by
non-linear least squares. The methods used are discussed In Chapter 4
where vehicle speed equations are presented. Non-linear least squares
estimators are biased in small samples but the bias Is generally small In
large samples. Also It Is only In large samples that standard errors
provide good estimates of standard deviations of estimated coefficients.
Where ordinary least squares methods are used coefficient estimators are
unbiased and efficient as long as standard conditions are satisfied (see
e.g. Judge et al. 1980).
Writing a typical equation as:
(17) c x f + e
where c Is a cost Item or consumption of some Input, x Is a vector

containing measurements of highway characteristics, p is a vector of
coefficients to be estimated and e Is a disturbance, the standard
conditions require e to be uncorrelated wlth x, wlth zero mean, to have
constant variance Independent of x and to be serially uncorrelated. As far
as fuel experimental and roadside speed data are concerned these conditions
are apparently approxlmately met in practice, perhaps after some
transformation of the dependent variable. In practice, we may find that
the disturbance variance Is dependent on x, often the variance being larger
for disturbances associated wlth values of x leading to large costs or
consumptions. One way to combat this problem Is to estimate p by weighted
least squares. However, a commonly adopted solution Is to replace c In
(17) by log(c) which has the effect of stabilizing the variance of the
error term and often results In a better representation of the data as a
consequence of the change In functional form.
We now turn to the statistical analysis of survey data. The first

matter that requires consideration Is the Impact of survey design on the
properties of estimators. In user surveys a two-stage sampling procedure
Is used. At the first stage companies are selected. In the four country
studies, companies were sought whose vehicles operated on fixed routes and
on routes within which there was little variation on highway
characteristics, so called "homogeneous routes." In practice this aim was
generally only partially fulfilled. The advantage of selecting companies
with vehicles on fixed, homogeneous routes Is that good ranges for highway
characteristics are then more easily obtained. Were companies to be
selected whose vehicles did not operate on such routes then highway
conditions experienced by the survey vehicles would be pulled towards mean
highway conditions for the country, as a result of averaging. Of course
companies whose vehicles do operate fixed homogeneous routes can be
expected to be well adjusted to the highway conditions that they face,
having purchased vehicles built to appropriate specifications and so forth.
The disadvantage of selecting companies whose vehicles operate on

fixed homogeneous routes is that, following this policy, we tend to obtain
much of the variation In highway characteristics at the company level
rather than at the vehicle level - often obtaining wide variation In
highway characteristics mainly by choosing companies operating in distinct
geographical regions. The problem then is that it is at least possible
that not all the across company variation in costs is due to variations In
highway characteristics, for some may be due to unmeasured differences in
conditions in the regions in which companies operate. Companies differ in
the type of transport service that they provide - particularly in goods
transportation - so that we can expect across company variation In costs,
even under identical highway conditions. In user surveys the number of
companies surveyed is relatively small. If there is substantial across
company variation in costs not due to differences in highway
characteristics then there is a danger of spuriously attributing to highway
characteristics, cost variatlons that are In fact due to other causes.
There is even the possibility that there are across company cost variations
associated with variations In highway characteristics but not due to them.
To examine these Issues further it is useful to extend the notation
Introduced earlier.
Recognising the two-stage sampling procedure employed in user

surveys we index c, the cost item or consumption, x, the vector of highway
characteristics and the disturbance, e, with two indices: "f" indicating
the company or firm generating the observation, and "v" Indicating the
vehicle generating the observation. Thus cfv denotes a cost observation
for the vehicle indexed "v" in the company indexed "f." Then (17) can be
rewritten:
(18) cfv x Ef.

+fv
*l
Across company variation in costs is captured by rewriting Efv as:
(19) Efv uf +wfv,
where uf is an error term specific to company f and wfv Is an error term

specific to vehicle v in company f. The model described by (18) and (19)
is known in the statistical literature as an "error components" model.

There are good reasons for expecting it to be applicable to user survey
data and there Is substantial empirical evidence for the presence of the
company specific error component Uf In user survey data. Estimates
obtained using Brazilian and Indian survey data, which relate to survey
periods of around 18 months, suggest that, for many cost components,
variation In Uf Is of a similar order of magnitude to variation in wvf.
The presence of the company specific error term Uf In (19) ensures

that the disturbance efv Is serially correlated. As a result estimates
obtained by applying ordinary least squares to (18) are Inefficient and
accompanying summary statistics, calculated Ignoring the presence of Uf are
misleading. One solution Is to apply generalized least squares, first
estimating au2 , the variance of uf and Ofw2 , the variance of wfv. in
practice this Is achieved by transforming the data prior to application of
ordinary least squares using estimates su2 and sw2 of aU2 and aw2 . In the
analysis of the Brazilian study data and In the re-analysis of the Indian
study data (Chesher 1983) generalized least squares estimators were
calculated for many cost components, estimates being obtalned using the
procedure described by Fuller and Battese (1973) which uses unblased
estimators of vu2 and oW2. The square roots, su and sw, of the unbiased
variance estimates are reported with generalized least squares estimates as
results are presented In the chapters that follow In Part II.
The resulting estimators of the coefficients, O, are unbiased as

long as the error distributions involved are symmetric with zero means, and
they are efficient relative to ordinary least squares estimators, at least
In large samples. Since the generalized least squares estimates (GLS) are
not ordinary least squares estimates (OLS) the fit of the GLS equations is
not as "good" as that of the equations produced by OLS. This highlights a
deficiency of "RI" type statistics which are sensitive to the scale on
which the dependent varlable Is measured and which anyway are not
Interesting In themselves. The aim of user survey analysts should be
to obtain good, usable estimates of the coefficients, f not necessarily
to "explain" large amounts of the variation In the dependent variable.
Sometimes In-sample "fit" has to be sacrificed in order to obtain useful
estimates.
A possibility that has to be allowed for in analysing user survey

data is that the company specific error term, uf In (19), Is correlated
with the highway characteristics measured by x. If it is then both OLS and
GLS estimators will be biased, the estimated coefficients picking up
variation In uf and assigning It Incorrectly to elements of the observable
vector x.
One argument for such a correlation requires us to Imagine that

companies differ In their ability to minimise the costs of production. On
high volume routes where there Is fierce competition companies must succeed
at keeping costs down, or perish, for customers will not pay higher prices
than are necessary and companies cannot operate at a loss for long. But on
low volume routes where a company may have some degree of monopoly power,
market forces may not drive the high cost company out of business, at least
not so fast as on high volume routes. High volume routes tend to be high
quality routes built to good geometric standards, with a high quality
surface, but low volume roads are often of lower quality, because of
historic planning decislons and Improvement policies. In this scenario
companies with high values for uf tend to fall on routes with poor quality
surfaces, maybe with lower geometric design standards, and uf and x are
correlated. Then ordinary least squares and generalized least squares give
misleading estimates of the effects of highway characterlstics on costs.
Misleading because, on Improving highways the cost reductions predicted
using such estimates may not materialize unless Improved low quality routes
are, or become, high volume routes. In this situation there will be a
tendency to overestimate coefficlents on measures of highway quality.
Suppose the company specific error uf is correlated with the

highway characteristics, x, then how can we derive estimates of the
coefficients, 0, unaffected by the correlation? The answer Is obtained by
considering the equation that results when we express equation (18) In
terms of deviations about company means, cf., Xf. and wf., thus:
(20) cfv - cf - (xfv - Xf )VP + wfv - wf
In this equation the company specific error does not appear. Estimating
(20), which under standard conditlons can be done efficiently by ordinary
least squares, we obtain an estimator of P Insensitive to the behaviour of
uf, an estimator free of company effects. Estimating equatlon (20)
Involves regressing deviations of vehicle costs from company average costs
on deviations of highway characteristics experienced by Individual vehicles
from company averages of these same characteristics. Clearly Information
Is thrown away If this procedure Is used since only within company
variation In costs and highway characteristics Is explolted, across company
variation being Ignored. However, evidence arising from within company
comparisons of costs and highway characteristics Is In our opinion more
convincing than evidence coming from comparisons of costs across companies.
Unfortunately there are occasions when (20) does not produce

usable estimates because of Insufficient variation In highway
characteristics within companies. This Is likely to be a problem when
variation In highway characteristics has been obtained by sampling
companies In distinct geographical regions with distinctive topography.
Then there may be no alternative but to exploit across company cost and
highway characteristic variation to obtain estimates of ,, though the
Influence of company effects can be lessened to some extent by including
additional explanatory variables descrlbing company characteristics so that
uf Is partially explained. An alternative Is to proceed with (20) but to
group companies so far as possible Into homogeneous groups, redefining cf
and so forth as company group averages.
The estimator produced by applying ordinary least squares to (20)

can also be obtained by Introducing binary Indlcators Identifying
companies, rewriting (18) as:
(21) cfV EufDf + xfv P + fv-
Here Df Is one for observations arising from company f and Is zero

otherwise. Equations (18) and (21) are Just two ways of writing the same
relationship and applying ordinary least squares to (21) produces
estimates of the uf's (as coefficients on the Df's) and, for p, an
estimator algebraically Identical to that obtained by applying ordinary
least squares to (20). The resulting estimator Is known as a "fixed
effects" estimator In the statistical literature and we use this
terminology later when results are presented. Using (21) one obtains as
many Intercept terms as there are companies whereas using (20) there Is no
estimated Intercept since (20) necessarily passes through the origin. In
practice users will want to calibrate user cost equations so that predicted
cost levels accord with those found In new environments. However, for the
purpose of presenting results it Is useful to report a single Intercept.
In the case of ti,e Indian survey results, Intercepts have been provided by
the Study Director In a personal communication to the authors. Where the
Indian data has been reanalysed and In the case of the Brazilian study a
single Intercept Is reported which Is a weighted average of the company
Intercepts, with weights given by the number of vehicles sampled per
company.
The existence of two estimators, the fixed effects estimator and

the generalized least squares estimator, one Insensitive, the other
sensitive to correlations between uf and x, leads to a method for detecting
such correlations due to Hausman and Taylor (1981) which Involves comparing
the vector of differences between the two estimators with an estimate of
the variance of the sampling distribution of this difference. This
"Hausman" test was applied extensively In the analysis of the Brazilian
survey data and In the authors' analysis of the Indian survey data to help
In deciding which estimator to use.
User survey designers and designers of user cost experiments

strive to obtaln Information on vehicles travelling over wide ranges of
highway conditions but In practice they have mixed success. Then It is
tempting to extrapolate the fitted user cost equations outside the range of
conditions experienced in the studies, but extrapolatlon should be
practiced only with extreme caution, for there Is generally no guarantee
that the functional forms fitted to the data over the ranges of highway
conditions experienced will apply far outside those ranges. In reporting
predictions In the following chapters, we have endeavoured not to push the
equations far, If at all, beyond the range of experience In the relevant
studies. The Transport and Road Research Laboratory, cognizant of the
problem that extrapolation poses, have fitted to the Kenyan and Caribbean
data S-shaped curves, which flatten to asymptotes when extrapolated to
extreme high or low qualIty highways. These curves are not reported later,
In part because to have done so would have substantlally Increased the
volume of results to be treated. More fundamentally, It Is not evident

from graphs of most of the Kenyan and Caribbean studies' data that an S-
shaped curve Is appropriate - indeed It seems quite likely that costs do
continue to Increase as highways worsen; what Is doubtful Is whether they
Increase exponentially or even quadratically. We doubt whether the data
obtained in user surveys contain significant Information concerning upper
and lower bounds on costs and therefore choose to report equations as
originally derived, stressing the need for care If extrapolatlon Is
contemplated.
Finally, before proceeding to examine the results obtained In the

four studies we address some Issues that arise because of non-linearities
In some of the cost-highway characteristic relationships. A number of the
user survey equations are obtained using the logarithm of some cost Item as
the dependent variable. Upon exponentlating the fitted equation we
obtained a non-linear equation with which to predict the cost Item, but the
resulting predictions are biased. Using the equation as fitted In
logarithmic form one obtains unbiased predictions of the logarithm of costs
but since the exponential function Is convex and the expectation of a
convex function of a variate exceeds the convex function of Its
expectation, exponentiated predictions of log (costs) tend to lie below
average values for costs. In reporting equations originally estimated
using log (costs) as the dependent variable we Introduce a correction
obtained assuming that the error distribution using the logarithmic
transformation Is normal wlth mean zero and variance a2. The expected
value of the exponentlated error is then exp (a2/2) (see e.g. Aitchinson
and Brown 1957) and the correction Involves multiplying predictions through
by exp (s2/2) 2 1 where s2 Is an unbiased estimate of the variance of the
error term using the logarithmic transformation.
APPENDIX. A MODEL FOR VEHICLE OPERATING COSTS
Notation
Policy Variables
q : output per firm per time period

u : output per vehicle per time period
N : fleet size, I.e. vehicles per firm
s : vehicle life (number of time periods)
Prices, etc.
VP : new vehicle price

r : per time period continuous discount rate.
THEORY
ANDESTIMATION 35
Costs, etc.
PVC(q) : present value of cost of productionof q In perpetuity

C(q) : constant per time period flow with present value
PVC(q)
PVR(q) : present value of revenues accruing from sale of q in

perpetuity
R(q) : constant per time period flow with present value

PVR(q)
PVAC(q) : present value of the average cost of product of q In

perpetuity- PVC(q)/q
PVMC(q) : present value of the marginal cost of productionof q

in perpetuity- dPVC(q)/dq
m(t) rate of flow of costs per vehicle per time period,

other than vehicle replacement costs for a t time
period old vehicle.
Other Variables
t : vehicle age (time periods)

h : highway characteristics.
A2.1 Optimal ReplacementPolicy, Vehicle Value, Depreciationand Interest

Costs
A firm produces an output stream of q units of transportservices

per time period using N vehicles at utilisationu per vehicle. Thus:
(A2.1) q - Nu.
Vehicles are scrapped s time periods after purchase and replaced at a price
VP per vehicle. The present value of the stream of replacementcosts for a
fleet of N vehicles Is thus NVP/(1-e-rS)where r Is the continuousper time
period discount rate. Vehicles Incur other costs ("running"costs) flowing
at the rate m(t) per vehicle per time period for a t time period old
vehicle. These costs depend upon u - q/N but for the moment the notatlon
does not make the dependenceexplicit. The present value of the stream of
running costs Incurredwhen the output stream q Is produced In perpetuity
Is:
(A2.2) N fsm(w)erJ-rw + J2sm(w-s)e-rwdw+ f3sm(w-2s)e-rwdw )
N
- ftm(t)ertdt
1-e-sf
Adding replacement and running costs and assuming no other costs of

production, the present value of the total cost of producing q in
perpetuity Is:
(A2.3) PVC(q) - Nrs (VP + fOm(t)e dt}

1-e
Note that economies or diseconomies of scale associated with fleet size

could be captured by adding to (A2.3) a function of N, or by making m(t)
depend on N.
Differentiating (A2.3) with respect to s gives the first order

condition for optimal vehicle lives:
dPVCCq) , e -rs { -rPVC(q) + Nm(s) ) - O

dS 1 -rs
1-e
which Impiles:
(A2.4) Nm(S) - rPVC(q) - C(q)
where C(q) Is the constant flow of costs whose present value Is PVC(q).
The second order condition for a minimum requires:
(A2.5) Nmt(s)/(ers - 1) > 0
where mt(s) - dm(t)/dt evaluated at t-s, the solution to (A2.4).
Equation (A2.4) may have no finite solution If m(t) Is eventually

Increasing not at all, or only slowly with vehicle age. If there Is a
finite solution then (A2.5) shows that m(t) must be Increasing at the date
of scrapping. In practice m(t) may not be monotonic because of large scale
vehicle refurbishments In which case there may be multiple solutlons to
(A2.4).
Since:
1-e rs -rt
r m(s) - m(s)e dt
equation (A2.3) can be rewritten as:

THEORYAND ESTIMATION 37
(A2.6) VP - J (m(s) - m(t))e dt.

0
DefineV(t) by:
(A2.7) V(t) = Ws) - m(w+t))e rwdw
- ert{ (m(s) - m(x))e rxdx

t
and note thatV(O) - VP.

We now show thatV(t) can be interpreted
as the valueof a t time
periodold vehicle. Considera firm wlth a vehicleaged t time periods.
Runningthe vehicleuntil Itsoptimal scrappingdate and then replacingit
with a sequence of new vehicle, the present value of the costsof
productlon associated with the vehicle, excluding costs associated with
ownershipof the used vehicleIs, If the vehicleIs kept:
rtS -rw e-r(s-t) s rw

CA2.8) ck ertmCw)er dw l rs + fJmCw)e'"dw
Using the definitionof V(t) In (A2.7)and the optimalscrappingcondition

this can be rewrittenas:
Ck - -V(t)+ m(s)/r.
If the firm sells the t time period old vehicle for an amountSP,
purchasinga new vehicle so as to maintainproduction,
then the present
valueof the costsassociatedwlth the vehicleis:
*A2.9)c - SP + 1 - VP + m(w)e-rWdw
s ~~1-e
rs
- - SP + m(s)/r
exploitingthe optimalscrappingcondition. Sincea cost minimislngfirm

sells If and only If Cs < ck, we concludethat a t time periodold vehicle
will be sold If and only if SP > V(t). FurtherIt will be optimalfor the
firm to purchaset timeperiodold vehiclesIf they are offeredat a price
below SP. It Is In this sense that V(t) defines the value of a t time
period old vehicle. The present value of the costs associated with a t
time period old vehicle, including the opportunity cost arising because the
vehicle is not sold, Is ck + V(t) - m(s)/r which Is Independent of vehicle
age. Thus costs of production are Independent of the age distribution of
the firm's fleet.
Having defined the concept of vehicle value It Is now possible to

define depreciation and interest cost flows. Depreciation costs arise
because of the reduction In a vehicle's value as It ages. These costs flow
at the rate D(t) - -dV(t)/dt per time period. Interest costs, l(t), flow
at a rate proportional to vehicle value, thus: I(t) - rV(t).
Differentiating (A2.7), which defines vehicle value, gives:
(A2.10) dV(t) - -O(t) - rV(t) - (m(s) - m(t))

dt
and on rearranging:
(A2.11) m(s) - D(t) + I(t) + m(t).
The optimal scrapping condition requires m(s) - C(q)/N, which Is total per
vehicle per time period costs so that
(A2.12) C(q)/N - D(t) + I(t) + m(t)
which decomposes vehicle operating costs Into their components.
A2.2 Choice of Utillsatlon and Fleet Size
The dependence of running costs on utilisation s now made

explicit by writing m(t) as m(u,t) where u Is output per vehicle per time
period. Partial derivatives are denoted by mu(u,t), mut(u,t) and so forth,
and mu(u,t), mt(u,t) are assumed to be positive. The present value of the
cost of producing q Is, substituting N - q/u Into (A2.3):
(A2.13) PVC(q)
q
u
1
rs
r P + Jm(ut)ertdtJ
Fleet size, N, Is now variable, but determined by u since, In this analysis

of the cost minimising fIrm, q Is fixed. Cost minimising fIrms choose u
and s to minimise (A2.13). Note that we could add FC/r to (A2.10) to allow
for fixed costs flowing at the rate FC per time period and FC could depend
on fleet size which would allow the possibility of economies or
diseconomies of scale.
The first order conditions for optimal utlilsatlon and vehicle

lives are:
(A2.14) -
u
+ | VP Im(uu,t)e
u
rtdt
(A2.15) -rs {VP + Im(u,t)e rtdt} _ mru,s)
which can be rewritten as:
(A2.16) PVC(q) _ PVAC(g) PVMC(q) - 1 rs

_-(u rt)e
dt
q 1-e-rsf
(A2.17) uPVC(q) uPVAC(q) - uPVMC(q) m(u's)

q r
where PVAC(q) and PVMC(q) are the present values of, respectively, the
average and marginal costs of producing q. These are constant for
variations In q because, as noted earlier, there are neither economies nor
diseconomles of scale in this model.
The second order conditions sufficient to ensure that a solution

to (A2.16-17) corresponds to a cost minimum are not straightforward to
interpret. Two necessary conditions that are easy to interpret are that,
at a solution to (A2.16-17):
Jmu(u,t)e tdt > 0
which relates to the convexity of the running cost stream as a function of

utillsation and:
mt(u,s) > 0
which has been encountered earlier.
A2.3 The Sensitivity of Costs to Highway Conditions
Changes In highway conditlons alter the flow of running costs,

m(u, t) and this leads to changes In utlilsation and vehicle lives.
Equations (A2.16-17) will be satisfied before and after the change so that
the sensitivity to highway conditions of utilisation, vehicle lives and
thus of costs of production can be examined by totally differentiating
these equations. We simplify by writing m(u,t) In the multiplicatively
separable form:
m(u, t) - uf(u,h) a (t)
where h denotes highway conditions, large h being taken to Indicate poor

highways, and we assume a(t) Is Increasing In t, fh(u,h) > 0, fu(u,h) > 0
and fuu(u,h) > 0. Defining:
A(s) - I O
(t)ert dt
we then have, for the present value of the cost of producing q:
CA2.18) PVC(q) - 1 P + uf(u,h)A(s)

u 1_,.rs ufuhAC)
and for the conditions governing optimal utilisation and scrapping,
equivalent to (A2.16-17):
(A2.19) VP - u 2 fu(u,h)A(s)
(A2.20) VP - uf(u,h)B(s)
where B(s) - J(a(s) - C(t))ert dt.
Totally differentiating (A2.19-20), allowing u, s and h to alter

glVes:
(A2.21) [_d+ u 1 u + d log B(s) ds h

au+ f(u,h) dh L ds dh f(u,h)
(A2.22)
2 fuu(u,h)
au+ fu(u,h)
) du
dh
(d log A(s)) ds
ds dh
ffuh(u,h)
fu(u,h)
which determine the optimal response of utilisation and scrapping dates to

changes In highway conditions. Note that this is In a sense a "long run"
analysis since we are allowing fleet size to adjust.
The four coefficients on du/dh and ds/dh In (A2.21-22) can be

expected to be positive and the two right hand side terms can be expected
to be negative. Consequently without further restrictions It Is not
possible to sign dsu/dh and ds/dh Individually. Note though that If du/dh
> 0 then ds/dh < 0 and If ds/dh > 0 then du/dh < 0. Thus deterioratlons In
highway conditions lead to reductlons In utilisatlon or shortening of
vehicle lives, or both.
The effects of highway conditions on costs are easier to

determine. We can expect prices charged to purchasers of transport
services to be closely related to the present value of the marginal cost of
productlon. We have:
(A.23) PVMC(q) - PVC(q) - 1 u [VP + uf(u,h)A(s)].

q 1-e-rs) u
Dlfferentiating with respect to h and allowing for adjustments In

utilisation and vehicle lives gives:
dPVMC(q) _ 1 | dPVC(q) du dPVC(q) dsl h A(s)

(A2.24) dh q du dh ds hCu )1 e-rs
hdh]
-- *f(u,h) . A(s)
h le rs
1huh)
since the braced term Is zero by virtue of the conditions governing optimal
utilisatlon and scrapping. Since fh(u,h) > 0, dPVMC(q)/dh Is unambiguously
positive. The constant flow with present value equal to that given by
(A2.24) Is fh(u,h) rA(s)/1-e-rS). When r-0, rA(s)/(1-e-rs) - A(s)/s
(applying L'H6pital's rule) and rA(s)/(1-erS) Is a kind of across time
average of the time varying factor affecting running costs.
I I
PART II
Estimates of Cost Components
In Part 11 the user cost equatlons developed In the Kenyan,

Caribbean, Brazilian, and Indian studles are presented and compared.
Chapter 3 sets the scene, presentIng Information concerning the
environments In which the studles were performed and giving brief details
of the organisation of the studies and of the ways In which data were
collected. In Chapters 4-7, the results concerning vehicle speeds, fuel
and lubricant costs, tire costs and maintenance costs are examined. In the
main text of these chapters the results are recorded in a common notation
and they are accompanied by extensive tables and graphs. Appendices give
cost equations In the forms reported by the studies with summary statistics
and ranges for explanatory variables and they contain commentary regarding
statistical properties of the estimates and details of modifications
Introduced In order to achieve the common reporting style of the main text.
Tables and figures for which sources are not provided were assembled by the
authors using the studies reports and the results of their own analyses of
the studies' data.
43
I I I
CHAPTER 3
The User Cost Studies
This chapter provides essential background informatlon concerning

the four user cost studies conducted between 1971 and 1982 In Indla,
Brazil, the Caribbean and Kenya. The next section gives details of the
environments in which the studies were performed, knowledge of which is
essential If the results of the studies are to be Interpreted and applied
correctly. Of particular Importance are the structure of the transport
Industry, the types of vehicles In operation at the times of the studies
and the economic conditions facing transport firms. The World Tables
(World Bank 1985) and the United Nations Statistical Yearbook (1982) have
been used as the main source of the national data reported In Sectlon 3.1.
Unless otherwise stated prices are recorded In local currency. Where US
dollar prices are given they are obtained by applying offIcial exchange
rates for the reported year.
The last two sections of this chapter describe the organisation of

the four studies and the methods used to collect data. Section 3.2 deals
with the four studies In turn and in Section 3.3, first cost data, and then
the collection of data on highway characteristics are described.
3.1 THE BACKGROUND TO THE STUDIES
The four studies covered an enormous range of physical and

economic conditions, matched by considerable variations In highway
conditions and vehicle fleet design and composition. In this section some
of the Important features of the environments In which the studies were
performed are described. It Is Important to understand the conditions
prevailing when the studies were performed If the results presented In the
succeeding chapters In Part II are not to be misinterpreted.
Tables 3.1 and 3.2 provide data concerning the four study regions.
The climatic Information In Table 3.1 shows considerable variations within
and across countries and In some cases across seasons. The conditlons
found In India were particularly variable, ranging from the relatively cool
province of Kashmir with Its moderate rainfall to the oppressively hot and
humid West Coast areas In which, for example, Bombay Is located,
experiencing Intense monsoon rains. Much of the Brazilian study was
performed In the Brazilian plateau region In the states of Golas, Minas
Gerais, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo. In much of this
area the winter months are dry but even In the south frosts are rare and
temperatures vary little over the year.
Much of the Kenyan research was carried out In the Kenyan

highlands which experience only moderate rainfall, peaking In the period
from March to May (see the data for Nairobi and Kisumu in Table 3.1). This
45
TablIe3.1: Average DaIlIyTemperatures CT : C, Max and M I ) and Average monthlIyRaInfal CR : MU)
KENYA _____ BRAZIL BARBADOS ST. LUCIA INDIA
Kisumu Mombasa Nairobi Goiis ParanA1 Rio de Bridgetown Soufri bre Hyderabad Srinagar Delhi Bomibay
M Janeiro
0
N T T R T T R T T R T T R T T R T T R T T R T T R T T R T T R T T R T T R
T
H max mini max mini max min max mini max mini max mini max mini max mini max min max mini max mini max mini
iJ29 18 48 31 24 25 25 12 38 30 17 317 32 14 287 29 23 125 28 21 66 28 21 135 29 16 8 5 -2 74 21 7 23 28 19 3
F 29 19 8 31 24 18 26 13 64 32 17 251 32 15 236 29 23 122 28 2:28 28 21 91 32 18 10 7 -1 71 24 9 18 28 19 3
'M 28 1.9140 31 25 64 25 14 125 32 17 259 32 15 239 28 22 130 29 21 33 29 21 97 36 21 13 14 3 91 31 14 13 30 22 3
*A28 18 191 30 24 196 24 14 211 33 17 117 32 14 102 27 21 107 30 22 36 31 22 86 38 24 31 19 7 94 36 20 8 32 24 0
*M27 18 155 28 23 320 22 13 158 33 16 10 33 12 13 25 19 79 31 23 58 31 23 150 40 27 28 24 11 61 41 26 13 33 27 18
iJ27 17 84 28 23 119 21 12 46 32 13 8 33 9 0 24 18 53 31 23 42 31 23 218 35 24 112 29 14 36 39 28 74 32 26 485
J 27 17 58 27 22 89 21 11 15 32 13 0 33 9 3 24 17 41 30 23 147 31 23 236 31 23 152 31 18 58 36 27 180 29 25617
A 27 17 76 27 22 64 21 11 23 34 15 8 34 10 5 24 18 43 31 23 147 31 23 249 31 23 135 3118S61 34 26 173 29 24340
S 28 17 64 28 22 64 24 11 31 34 18 58 35 13 28 24 18 66 31 23 170 31 23 252 31 22 165 28 12 38 34 24 117 29 24 264
0 29 18 56 29 23 86 24 13 53 34 17 135 34 14 127 25 19 79 30 23 178 31 22 236 31 21 64 22 5 31 3418a10 32 24 64
N 29 18 86 29 24 97 23 13 109 32 17 239 33 14 231 26 20 104 29 23 206 29 22 231 29 17 28 16 -1 10 29 11 3 32 23 13
D 29 18 102 30 24 61 23 13 86 31 17 241 32 14 310 28 22 137 28 22 97 28 21 198 28 15 8 9 -2 33 33 8 10 31 21 3
Source: The World WeatherGuide (PearceA Smith 1984).

USER COST STUDIES 47
Is the most densely populated part of Kenya and it contains the most
productive agricultural land. Temperatures vary little through the year and
are only moderate because of the altitude of this region (Kisumu Is 1,148m
above sea level, Nairobi, 1,820m).
The Islands studied In the Caribbean research have climates

typical of the Caribbean region with high rainfall during the hurricane
season from July to November and with little seasonal variation in
temperature. Barbados is less hilly than Dominica, St. Lucia, and St.
Vincent and receives less rainfall.
Table 3.2 provides additional physical and some economic data.

Brazil Is by far the largest of the countries studied with a surface area
more than twice that of India. Brazil's terrain, like much of India's Is
flat or rolling with few mountainous areas. Although Brazil's population
was relatively small (116 million) leading to the lowest populatlon density
of any of the regions studied, more than 60 percent of the population lived
In urban areas, and demand for Inter urban transport services was high.
Brazil, with Industrial output constituting around a quarter of GDP at
factor cost, had been experiencing a high growth rate and was untypical of
developing countries In the 1970's. However the rural economy was
Important, and in the mid-1970s agricultural products generated 60 percent
of export earnings. India's population was 632 millon In 1977, only 21
percent of whom lived In urban areas. In spite of its growing Industrial
sector, at the time of the user cost research the country had a
predominantly agrarian and rural based economy with agricultural production
accounting for almost 60 percent of GDP.
Kenya, the largest East African country, has a surface area less
than a fifth of India's and when the study began In 1971 had around 12
million Inhabitants, 11 percent of whom lived In urban areas. The rapid
urbanisation evident In the late 1970s and early 1980s had not yet got
underway. Agriculture accounted for over 70 percent of export earning and
30 percent of GDP at factor cost, while manufacturing made up 12 percent of
GDP. It Is Important to note that the Kenyan study was carried out before
the large oil price rise of the mid-1970s, hence the distinctive import
composition and small rate of change of retail prices shown In Table 3.2.
Kenya was making large investments In the transport and

communications sector at the time the study was conducted. Improvement in
both surface quality and geometric design standards of the national highway
system accounted for most of the highway funding, reducing Journey times
and vehicle wear (for trucks the Journey from Nalrobi to Mombasa was
reduced from over one day to just a few hours), and such Investments
probably made a significant contribution to the 6 percent growth In GDP
achleved during 1965-71. Kenya's 2,600 kilometers of railway provided a
frelght rather than passenger service and was used largely for moving
agricultural products and for cargo shipments from neighbouring countries.
The Caribbean study focussed on four countries, Barbados and the

Wlndward Islands of St. Vincent, St. Lucla and Dominica. These islands are
extremely small, their combined surface area Is less than 1 percent of that
of Kenya, and their Inhabitants are concentrated in valleys giving high
48 USER COST STUDIES
Table 3.2: Selected Data for Kenya, Barbados, Brazil and India1
Indicr wid Unis Ke rbado Brazi Indx"
Poputbn, 103 innhatnts 12122 247 116100 631726
Popuation, % urban 11 367 64 22
Popubfton Osty,
inhabitants per eq.khm 20 577 14 192
GNP 2 . per capita. $ US 166 20076 1570 163
GoP 3 . $US, 106 1842 388 137121 91370
C3oP3 , by Industry, per cent.

Agriculture 33 11 12 40
Manufacture 12 11 23 16
Trade/Finance 15 22 20 15
Transport/Communctions 6 8 5 6
Mining I 1
Construction 7 8 6 6
-mport ComposIton, per cent

Fuel and Lubrkants 12 13 34 26
Food 6 23 7 16
Machinery/Equipment 34 19 26 19
Othr Manufactures 34 42 26 24
Eport Composition, per cent

Food, beverages So 39 62 32
Miwala, metals 16 13 10 9
Machinery/Equipment 2 12 12 6
Other Manufactures 16 26 26 50
Currency Vaiue 4 7.142 2.006 14.144 8.563
etail Price Index, Annual

5
Rat* of Change, per cent 2.1 16.9 25.9 9.0
140TES :
1. Md-isurvey date, 1972 or Kenya, 1977 for other studies.

2. Current market prices, xcpt Brzil : current factor cost.
3. Current factor cost.
4. Kenyan shillings, Babadan dollars, Brazilian cruzeiros and Indian rupee
per US dollar at mid-survey date.
S. 1960/1970 for Kenya. 1970/1977 for other studies.
6. Dominlca : $US 444, St. Lucia : $ US 469, St. Vincent and the Grenadines: $US 283
7. Dominica, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Gronadines, 100% rural
Source: World Tables, U.N. Statistical Yearbook and World Bank internal
sources.
population density. Most of the data In Table 3.2 relate to Barbados, by

far the richest of Islands studied. Agriculture and manufactured goods
were equally Important contributors to GDP and to exports. The other
Caribbean Islands were less prosperous, their GDP per capita being around a
quarter of that of Barbados or less, and they were highly dependent on
their fruit exports to generate foreign earnings. The Caribbean Islands
had small road systems and no railways. For example, Barbados had 1,640
kilometers of roads while Dominica had just 752 kilometers. Roads were
narrow, generally as a result of hilly terrain, and mostly paved.
Transport Infrastructure in Brazil and Indla was different In all

respects from that of the Caribbean islands, principally because of the
need to link diverse population centers spread over enormous distances and
to support rapidly growing industrial and export earning sectors. Table
3.3 gives a breakdown of non-urban highway categories for these countries.
Data are not available in this form for the other studies. It is notable
that only 6 percent of the total Brazilian network was paved In 1977 and
even within the small federal system this figure was only 40 percent. Much
of this largely unpaved system, which was crucial to the economic
prosperity of the country, was constructed to high geometric design
standards and Investment strategies focussed on changing grading
frequencies or timing the paving of road surfaces. In 1977 In Brazil road
transport accounted for 90 percent of passenger kilometers and 70 percent
of freight tonne kilometers. The railway network was around 30,000
kilometers long, Including urban corridors In the metropolitan cities, but
Its contribution to transport movements was limited to export commodities
like soya, and minerals, and to urban commuting trips. Road transport
remained the main mode of transport In Brazil and this Is reflected In the
size of the national vehicle fleet.
India, on the other hand, relied significantly on its railway

system for both passenger and freight movements (particularly between
states) and was the only one of the four countries studies to possess a
large and protected rail system. Road Infrastructure had received limited
Investment with emphasis on making road surfaces all-weather, rather than
on Improving geometric design standards. However, most federal and state
highways In India were paved (see Table 3.3) though many to very low
standards. By International standards Indlan highways were extremely
narrow, with many vehicles being forced to leave the pavement when
overtaking or meeting other traffic.
The degree of regulation within the road haulage sector varied

considerably across the countries where the studies were conducted. The
Caribbean islands had free entry to most services (the exception being
Barbados where passenger services were franchised) and a commercial vehicle
license was Issued on production of driver license, Insurance and vehicle
construction and use documents. In Kenya, road transport was highly
regulated at the time of the study, In a manner similar to that practiced
In the United Klngdom prior to the mid-1960s. In Brazil, entry to the
freight sector was unrestricted and there were a large number of owner-
drivers, particularly In the medium to heavy truck categories. Passenger
transport was highly regulated and each state was responsible for fixing
schedules and fares on routes within Its boundaries. Comparisons made
Table 3.3: Non-Urban Brazillan and Indian Highway Categories In 1978
India Brazil
Clss Length Per cent Paved Length Per cent Paved

103 km 103 kM
NationalHighways 29.3 99 84.8 54
State Highways 94.1 94 113.2 26
Municipal or
DistrictRoads 701,0 15 1116.4 1
Villge Roads
(India only) 675.5 11 - _
TOTAL 1499.9 37 1314.4 6
Sources: Brazil, Annuarlo Estatistico, GEIPOT (1982); India, CRRI (1982).
between actual fares and estimates of total vehicle operating costs (GEIPOT
1981) suggested that bus operations were very profitable, especially on
unpaved routes. In India, there was a very restrictive licensing system
covering both passenger and freight services whose prime obJective was to
protect the rail network. In an effort to ratlonalIse this system, a
Transport Development Council was appointed In the mld-1970s, but progress
In removing restrictions was slow and for the duration of the Indian user
cost study the road transport sector was strictly regulated.
In India public ownership of buses and trucks was more extensive

than In the other three countries studied. Road passenger operatlons were
evenly divided between public and private enterprises although some states
had wholly nationallsed services. Forty-eight state enterprises owned 52
percent of the total registered bus fleet In 1977 while truck operations
were dominated by owner-drivers who accounted for 90 percent of trucks
registered In 1977. There were few large trucking companies, In part due
to regulation and licensing.
In all the countries studied vehicle speeds and loads were

regulated. Table 3.3a shows speed llmits and axle load limits and weight
restrictions are given In Table 3.3b. In Brazil, the speed limit of
80 km/h was Imposed (and strictly enforced) just after the start of the
study which necessitated restarting the collection of vehicle speed data.
Table 3.3a: Maximum Permitted Speeds (km/h)
Country Cars r Buses and Trucks |
Kenya 100 65
Brazil 80 80
India no limit 60
St. Lucia 50 50
Barbados 56(1) 56(1)
Notes : (1) 80 km/h on the East Coast highway.
Source: World Bank Internalsources.
Table 3.3b: Axle Load and Vehicle Weight Restrictlonsat 1981
Axle Loads Maximum Gross Weight

(tonne/axle) (tonne)
Country
Axle Configuration(')
Single Tandem
axle axle 2 3 3S2
Kenya 8 9.8- 14.5 10.5 15.4 26.2

Brazil 10 17 15 22 45
India 12.5 - 20 - -
Barbados n.r. n.r. 11.2 _ _

St. Lucia n.r. n.r. 8.3 _ _
Notes : (1) 2 : 2 axle rigid

3 : 3 axle rigid
3S2 : Tractor : 3 axle, Semitrailer : 2 axle.
n.r. not regulated
- not available or not applicable
Source: Limits of Motor Vehicle Sizes and Weights, InternationalRoad
Federation (1981).
Axle loads were not restricted In St. Lucia or Barbados but vehicle weights
were very strictly limited. Elsewhere axle load restrictions were Imposed
but enforcement was rather variable. In Brazil enforcement was strict and
there were qulte frequent weigh stations on Interstate highways, but In
India overloading was common.
Compositions of registered national fleets when the research

studies were performed are given in Table 3.4. Kenya and Brazil alone had
a full range of vehicle types, from passenger cars, to super heavy trucks
whose gross vehicle weight exceeded 30 tonnes. The Kenyan data relate to
the early 1970s and the number of passenger cars doubled by 1977 while in
Brazil car ownership grew by 12 percent per year from 1977 to 1982. The
Kenyan natlonal fleet contained many light goods vehicles, reflecting the
Importance of Jeeps and other dual-purpose vehicles In the Kenyan economy
at that time. The Caribbean data relate to all the Islands - the
relatively large numbers of cars is note worthy. The buses recorded for
the Carlbbean Include a significant proportion of minl-buses, large buses
being confined mainly to urban use. Many truck owners In the Caribbean
fitted rudimentary seating and provided passenger services when business
was slack, or between harvests. The Indian data reveal limited passenger
car ownership and large numbers of two and three wheeled vehicles,
substitutes for the passenger car which was expensive to purchase. The
range of motorized vehicles was extremely limited In India and there were
many non-motorized vehicles, resulting in much traffic interaction.
Table 3.4: Compositlon of Registered Vehicle Fleets at Time of the

Studies (Thousands of Vehicles)
1
Vehi Cle
Gln KWs Caribbean Brazil India
1970 1977 1977 197
Car*2 63.7 (42) 32.8 (80) 5789.8 (74) 675.9 (21)
Taxis N.A. N.A. 156.4 (2) 76.8 (2)
Light Goods
Vehice 40.8 (27) 4.1 (10) 735.6 (10) 105.0 (3)
Trucks 20.4 (14) 2.9 (7) 8l2.5 (10) 375.3 (11)
Bus 3.0 (2) 1.1 (3) 102.7 (1) 119.5 (4)
Two and Three

Wheles 9.9 (7) N.A. 202.3 (3) 1550.3 (47)
Others 12.5 (8) N.A. N.A. 400.3 (12)
TOTALS 150.3 (100) 40.9 (100) 7768.9 (100) 3303.1 (100)
NOTES
1. Cribbean dats are the combined figures from Barbodos. St. Vincont. St. Lucia and Dominica.
2. Kenyan and Carbbean figures include Taxis.
Source: World Bank internal sources.

The vehicle designs available In the four countries differed

substantially. The Kenyan vehicles were Imported, in "knockdown" kits, and
assembled locally, while Caribbean vehicles were Imported as assembled
units. India and Brazil had extensive local vehicle manufacturing
Industries and vehicle Importation was prohibited.
The vehicles observed in Kenya at the time of the study were

purchased when fuel was relatively cheap and designed using the technology
of the 1960s. Generally they were not fuel efficient, but relatively
heavily bulit and robust. The Ford Cortina (no longer manufactured) with a
1.6-liter, 4-cylinder engine was typical of the cars available, while the
Volkswagen Kombi with a 1.5-liter, 4-cylinder alr-cooled rear engine and
the all-wheel drive Land Rover with a 2.3-liter, 4-cylinder engine were
typical of vehicles In the light goods or utility class. Bus chassis were
Imported, chiefly from Europe, and fitted with locally made bodles. The
Alblon (manufacturer now defunct) CD 23, 6-cylinder, 6.3-liter diesel
engined model was typical of this category. Multi-axled articulated
'vehicles were rarely seen at the time of the study and the largest vehicles
were two or three axied trucks pulling two or three axled drawbar trailers,
with up to 40 tonnes gross vehicle weight. Turbo-charged diesel engines
were uncommon and the super heavy trucks, for example the Flat (now part of
Iveco) 682, were powered by a normally aspirated engine of around 11.5
liters displacement, producing around 200 horsepower SAE. Compared to
vehicle types now seen in developing countries, we would expect the
vehicles In the Kenyan study to be long lived, simple to maintain and
rebuild, with a relatively modest level of performance.
The vehicles In the Caribbean study were confined to two broad

types, passenger cars and two axle trucks from 3 to 10 tonnes gross vehicle
weight. These were of more modern design than those found In the Kenyan
study although the smallness of the Islands rarely permitted advantages to
appear. Some care should be taken In applying Caribbean operating cost
data In new environments because of the special conditions prevailing on
the small Islands. Annual utilisation and lifetime kilometerage were low
and proximity to the sea exposed vehicles to corrosion. Spare parts were
Imported and not easy to obtain.
Details of Brazil's and India's vehicle production In 1977 are

given In Tab3e 3.5a. In India, four manufacturers dominated both the
passenger car and bus and truck markets producing only a small selection of
model types. The Ambassador and Premier Padmini were the only cars
available. Though based on out-moded European designs they were very
sturdy and apparently well suited to Indian conditions. The truck and bus
markets were led by Tata, a company producing vehicles originally based on
Mercedes-Benz designs and technologies, whose most popular model was
similar to the Brazilian 1111/1113 types. Ashok Leyland held around 20
percent of the market, producing vehicles that had a reputation for rugged
design and long life. Almost all trucks were two axle models and the
typical truck observed during the research period was a two-axle, 12-tonne
gross vehicle weight, forward control model powered by a 125 horsepower
(SAE) engine. Indian buses had a construction similar to that of the
trucks and there were no monocoque or platform rear engined buses operating
In the late 1970s. Bus bodies were locally bullt to a variety of simple
designs on "stretched" truck chassis supplied by the main natlonal
manufacturers. In the late 1970s in India there was excess demand for
trucks and manufacturers showed little Inclination to develop new models.
It was only in the early 1980s that some three axled and articulated
vehicles and turbo-charged diesel engines became available. At the time of
the study Indian vehicles, like Kenyan vehicles, were robust, of simple
construction, and designed to carry significant overloads on poorly
surfaced roads at low speeds.
Table 3.5a: Brazilian and Indian Vehicle Production In 1977
Numbers of Vehicles
Fuel Vehicle Class Brazil india
G"oline Cars 769700 37900

(60) (54)
Light Goods Vehicles 3220 N.A.
Disel Light Goods Vehicles 27W 9600
Buses 3800 N.A.

(90)
Trucl:
Light 16600
{41700
(56)
Medium/Large 7070
(43)
H"vy 6900 N.C.
Total Trucks 96200 41700
Annual Total 9166082
NOTIES:
1. Figures in parenthesesindicate the perocntage market share of the leading

manutacturer.
2. date not available;

N. A. indicates not constructed.
N.C. indicates
3. Indian Manufacturen produced 245200 two-whoieed and 19300 three-wheld

vehicls during this period. In Brazil, les then 2500 such vehicles were made.
Sources: Brazil, Annuarlo Estatistico, GEIPOT (1982); India, CRRI (1982).

USERCOSTSTUDIES 55
Brazil, with a total annual productionof around one millon units

(see Table 3.5a), was one of the top ten centers for vehicle manufacture In
the world. The largesttruck and bus manufacturerwas Mercedes-Benzwhose
truck range Includedover 30 basic models and who took over 40 percent of
the popular medium to large truck class. FNM was a Brazilian company
building heavy truck chassis to 1960s Flat designs. The Scania trucks were
more technicallyadvanced and turbo-charged and intercooledengines were
available for line haul work. However, these models were not as efficient
as their European counterpartsand this has impilcationsfor the prediction
of fuel consumption for this vehicle class. The lightertruck market,
containing trucks of the size of those typical In India, was very
competitive and was shared between Ford, Mercedes-Benz,and Chevrolet. A
feature of Brazilian truck design in the 1970s was the developmentof
engine efficlency and chassis/suspension designs so that payloads could be
Improvedwlthout exceeding gross vehicle weight and axle load limits. By
1980, there was a range of engines from 95 to 370 horsepower (SAE) which
could run on a variety of gasoline, gasohol, and diesel fuels.
Consequently,vehicle owners were able to match truck specificationsto the
type of service they wished to provide. Throughout the study period, the
most widely used inter-urbantruck in Brazil was a three axle rigid vehicle
with a non-driven trailing axle, grossing between 18 to 22 tonnes and
powered by a 147 horsepower (SAE) engine.
The bus market In Brazil was dominated by Mercedes-Benzwho

offered 11 basic models ranging from integral(monocoque)and platform,
rear engined vehicles, for paved road operatlons, to traditionalfront
engined, ladder-typechassis versions for use on unpaved routes. There
were a number of companies building bus bodies, ranging from robust designs
for unpaved roads to designs with air suspensionand air conditioningfor
long distance inter-city paved operations. All buses crossing state
boundariesor travellingroutes longer than 300 kilometerswithin a state
had to be fitted wlth a tachograph and rules governing speed limits and
driving hours were strictly enforced.
Car designs changed substantially during the course of the

Brazilian study. When the study began, In 1975, designs reflected 1960s
European and American designs. The most popular car, the Volkswagen 1300,
was even more elderly as its basic design went back to 1937. The Increase
in oil prices in the 1970s, together with the developmentof "world car
designs" by the multinational manufacturers produced dramatic changes in
Brazilian car designs and by the end of the study they were little
different from those found elsewhere in the world. By 1982 complete
passenger cars were being exported to the Middle East and North Africa,
trucks to North America, and engine and transmission units were being
shipped to Europeanmanufacturingcenters. Details of vehicle exports and
imports are given In Table 3.5b. Apart from Brazil, only India exported
significant numbers of vehicles and neither country Importedvehicles to
any extent. In Kenya and the Caribbean all vehicles were Imported.
Typical prices of inputs to transportatlon at the times when the

four studles were performedare shown In Table 3.6 in U.S. dollars. A more
extensive table of prices In local currencies togetherwith exchange rates
Table 3.5b: Numbers of Vehicles Importedand Exported
Cars Buses, Coaches, Goods Vehicles
Imports Exports Imports Exports
Kenya 1973 5400 _ 3300 _

1974 9400 _ 5800 _
1975 5000 - 5500 _
Brazil 1976 - 67000 - 9000

1977 5600 59000 1039 11000
1978 - 96000(1) - see cars
1979 - 87000 - 18000
1980 - 136000 75 21000
India 1977 - 370 _ 2850

1978 - 670 _ 5800
1979 - 630 _ 5900
1980 - 2200 _ 9950
Barbados 1978 1230 - 700 _
Dominica 1980 350 - 440 _
St. Lucia 1976 570(l) - see cars _

1977 870(1) - see cars _
1978 1060(1 ) - see cars _
1979 970(1) - see cars _
St. Vincent 1977 250(1) - see cars _

1978 380(1) - see cars _
1979 380(1) - see cars
Notes : (1) all vehicles combined

- zero or negligible
Sources: Kenya, Brazil, India: World Bank Statistics (1977-1985);

Caribbean: World Bank/IMF internalsources.
Table 3.6: Typical Prices of Inputs to Transportation. Gross of Tax,

at Study Dates
Kenya Buaced. Br 21 Ind.

1S72 1978.r 197S 1S718
Isis
Gasoline. $ UStlibte .15 .15 .35 .40
Oesel. $USs/br . .13 .11 .18 20
Engine Oil, $ US/ltre .63 .55 .85 .1
Laborl. $US/hour 3.50 6.50 1.42 0.26i
2
Tir Cost , $ US:
Cas 22 40 36 NA.
Light Good. Vehicle 13? N.A. 161 NA,
truck 13S 238 225 217
Bus 115 N .A. 213 N.A.
3
Ne. Vehicle Prks . $US:
CW 2S1 3964 3488 71536

Light Goods Vehicle 49101 4525 41Q 1744
Two-axe Trk 7843 115 15150 2151h
Sm 16317 N.A. 34710 21012
NO res:
1. Data to, Knyo and Barbeds r rates charged by garages whil thos for Brazil and India are
bad o company workhop nitorn,tioo.
2 Conei,tiona1 tirs, bi ply costrusct".
3. R*tail dots.
4. N. A. : ot ,nlable.
Source: Study reports and personal communication with studies' staff.
can be found In Chapter 9 In Part lii. The relatively low price of labour
relative to other prices in Brazil and especially Indla, and the high
relatlve price of fuel In India are noteworthy.
3.2 RESEARCH ORGANISATION
3.2.1 The Kenyan Study, 1971-75
The Transport and Road Research Laboratory's study team were based
In Nairobi and consisted of six U.K. staff and 30 local employees.
The fuel study used three Instrumented vehicles, a car, a light

goods vehicle and a medium truck. Details of the vehicles are given in
Section 3.3. The test vehicles ran over 95 experimental sections (42
paved, 49 gravel, and 4 earth) representing typical combinatlons of Kenyan
environmental and highway conditions. Speed data were collected from
passing traffic at the same sites. The effect on fuel consumption of speed
cycle changes during normal driving was determined by running the vehicles
over two long (8.4km unpaved, 15.4km paved) sections. An adjustment was
reported to convert fuel cohsumptlon predicted at constant speeds to values
appropriate to normal operating conditions.
The user survey collected data from vehicle operators between 1971
and 1973. The sample Included some small firms but most data came from
medium and large companies, some engaged In own account transportation.
The survey data analyzed relate to the calendar year 1972 and the adoption
of a 12-month reporting period was a characteristic of this and subsequent
TRRL vehicle operating cost surveys. The reported survey data were
obtained from 43 cars, 47 light goods vehicles, 78 medium/heavy trucks (5
to 26 tonnes payload) and 121 large buses (more than 30 seats). These
observations were combined, where this was considered appropriate, to form
averages, 6 for cars, 7 for light goods vehicles, 21 for trucks and 19 for
buses. The route network used by these vehicles was around 9,300
kilometers in length.
Detalls of the highway conditions experienced by the Kenyan survey

vehicles are given in Table 3.7. Roughness was measured using a car
mounted bump integrater calibrated by a towed 5th wheel as described in
Section 3.3. For user survey routes geometry was taken from maps with
additional information coming from instrumented vehicles. No vehicles were
observed operating for substantial periods of the survey over very rough
routes and the largest roughness value recorded for a survey vehicle was
7,000mm/km (9.0 I.R.I.). Similarly, only limited ranges were observed for
highway geometry and as we will see later In Part II, It Is difficult to
detect the effect of highway geometry on costs recorded In the user survey.
The experimental fuel and roadside speed studies covered wider

ranges of roughness and geometry (the latter measured with surveying
instruments), but no test sections had curvature exceeding 2000 /km or
gradient exceeding 8.6 percent.
TRRL staff returned to the United Kingdom In 1974 and the final
analyses and report writing were done at their headquarters In Crowthorne.
The results of the vehicle operating cost investigations were reported by
Hide et al. (1975) and the relatlonships were Incorporated Into a Road
Transport and Investment Model, RTIM (Robinson 1975) and the World Bank's
Highway Design and Maintenance Model, HDM Ill.
3.2.2 The Brazilian Study. 1975-82
The Brazilian study team were based In Brasilla and consisted of

over 150 personnel Including 11 International staff and thelr Brazilian
counterparts. The Brazilian study was wider In scope and more expensive to
conduct than the other studies dealt wlth In this volume. An overview can
be found In Butler et al. (1979). Considerable resources were expended on
developing pavement deterioration models, and extensive fuel consumption
experiments and programs of roadside speed observation were conducted. As
in the other studies maintenance, tire cost and other data were obtained
from a survey of road users. The intention was to establish vehicle
operating costs for the main vehicle types found on low-volume, non-urban
roads In Brazil.
A fleet of 10 specially purchased vehicles was used to conduct

fuel consumption experIments, examining constant speed fuel consumption,
the effects of acceleration and deceleration and the influence of
horizontal and sag curves. Details of the experiment fleet are given In
Section 3.3 where the vehicles used in all the studies' experiments are
compared.
Table 3.7: Highway CharacteristicsIn the Kenyan Study1
| -Roughness Rise & Fall Rise Fall Curvature

EN IRI (mlkm) (mJkm) (m/km) ( 0 /km)
(mm/kin) (imkmi)
All Experiment:
Mean 3985 5.1 _ 14 14 46

Min 1429 2.1 _0 0 0
max 20600 22.1 _ 86 86 198
Car Survey:
Mean 1 3740 4.8 n.a. _ _ n.s.

Min 2440 3.3 n.a. _ _ n.a.
Max | 6400 7.8 n.a. _ _ n.a.
Bus Survey:
Mean J 3228 4.3 33 - - 11

hWn | 2440 3.3 17 _ - 2
max 5000 6.3 69 _ - 50
TrickSurvey:
mean 2954 3.9 17 - - 32

Min 2550 3.4 15 - - 8
Max 7500 9.0 66 - - 45
1. Average values for survey vehicles, weighted by number of vehicles.

2. n.a. = notavailable.
Source: Hide et al. (1975).

Vehicle speeds were measured using hidden radar equlpment. DurIng the
course of the study the government Imposed and strictly enforced a
nationwide 80 kilometer per hour speed limit. The speed models reported In
Chapter 4 use data obtained subsequent to this regulatory change.
Relationships between vehicle speeds and highway and vehicle
characteristics were Investigated in eleven substudles In the speed
observation program. Data on free speeds and speeds under deceleration
were obtained by observing vehicles In the normal vehicle population
traversing the test sections. Data concerning speeds under acceleration
were obtained using vehicles In the fuel experiment test fleet. More than
100,000 free speeds were obtained at 176 test sites.
Most of the user survey data were collected between 1976 and 1979
and the majority of the analysis was performed between 1979 to 1981 during
which period many technical reports were published. A basic file of over
2,500 vehicle cost histories was reduced to 1,675 vehicle records sultable
for analysis, collected from 147 companies, 75 of which were owner-drivers.
It was not possible to collect data on all operating cost components for
all vehicles so each vehicle's record contains a variety of Information and
there Is considerable across vehicle variation In the number of months of
data available. Data relating to only short periods of operation were not
entered In analysis files and In consequence sample sizes for analysis vary
by cost component. Tire data were difficult to collect. The other studies
gathered tire data using a vehicle as the basic unit of observatlon but
this was not the practice adopted In the Brazil study In which data were
recorded on an Individual tire basis. The basic tire file contalned
Information on 20,800 tire changes, around 6,800 tire lives. For analysis,
vehicles were grouped Into five classes: cars, light goods vehicles,
medium and heavy trucks, and buses.
Highway characteristics were measured using a car mounted

response-type roughness device, the Maysmeter, calibrated by the GMR
Profilometer. Experimental sections were surveyed to determine highway
geometry while an Instrumented vehicle travelled user survey vehicles'
routes measuring both roughness and geometry. Table 3.8 provides some
Information concerning ranges and averages of highway conditions
encountered In the Brazilian road user survey. The wide ranges of
roughness observed for buses and trucks are notable but the ranges of
highway geometry are disappointingly narrow. These figures reflect the
rolling terrain of much of Brazil, particularly the ancient central
highlands where much of the data were obtained. Technical reports were
Issued at the end of the first phase (TRDF 1980) and the second phase
(GEIPOT 1981). The World Bank sponsored research Into the modelling of
vehicle speed, fuel consumption, and tire wear, which was begun In Brasilia
In 1981 and was eventually completed In Washington D.C. during 1985.
3.2.3 The Caribbean Study, 1977-82
The Caribbean study, conducted by the Transport and Road Research

Laboratory, Investigated road user costs In Barbados and In the Windward
Islands of St. Vincent, St. Lucia, and Dominica. The Islands were chosen
In part because of their wide variation In geometry, Barbados having
Table 3.8: Highway Characteristics In the Brazil Survey for a Selection

of Cost Components
VehlcbaCompont R _oubnea Rbie + Fall Cvatwe

1 Rl tmJI ,) (on")
(mnulkm) (rn/i)
mm Lab.
Cara/Parts
Man 3648 4.7 23 46

MAn 22W 3.0 12 11
Max I1 9.2 38 202
lSuaa/Parta and Lor
Man 4786 6.0 24 41

Mn 1265 1.8 10 6
x f I lf 13.3 3S 148
Madium Truaba/Pata an Labor
Men 3178 4.2 34 75

Min 160 1.9 25 7
man 78 8.6 48 294
Suau and Trucks/Tirea
Man 4801 5.8 29 66

Min 1t6 1.9 10 S
max 12 14.9 48 234
Source: GEIPOT (1981).
generally flat to rolling terrain with only a small hilly area, the other
Islands being more mountainous.
All the fuel experiment and roadside speed data were gathered In
St. Lucia. A test fieet of three Instrumented vehicles, described In
Section 3.3, was used to measure fuel consumptlon. It was not possible to
select a series of test sections of equal length that were homogeneous In
terms of geometry, due to the sinuous nature of St. Lucia's road network.
Therefore, six routes were surveyed and their vertical profiles plotted so
that sections of road with uniform gradients but of varying length could be
selected. This enabled an experimental design to be constructed covering
the full range of combinations of vertical and horizontal geometry sought
by the study. The test sections had gradients ranging from zero to 14
percent, average degrees of curvature from zero to 1,600 degrees per
kilometer, widths of from 4.3 to 8.5 meters and surface roughness ranging
from 1,400 to 14,800 mm per kilometer. Free speeds were obtained for three
classes of vehicles: cars, light goods vehicles, and trucks, by observing
traffic In normal conditions running over 28 test sites. Trucks were
weighed some distance after their speeds were recorded. Averages by
vehicle class of space mean speeds were obtained for cars and light goods
vehicles at each test site while individual vehicle speeds were retalned
for trucks because gross vehicle weight was to be related to truck speed In
analysis.
The road user survey, based In Barbados, collected data on all

four Islands. Collection of cost data was difficult as many vehicle owners
had no cost recording system and ad hoc arrangements were made to obtain
invoices and to question drivers and owners about Items of consumptlon.
User cost data were collected for four classes of vehicle: cars, light
goods vehicles (under 3 tonnes gross vehicle weight), trucks (greater than
3 tonnes gross vehicle weight), and buses (greater than 40 seats). Results
were reported only for two vehicle classes - cars and light goods vehicles
combined, and trucks - there being insufficient data relating to bus costs.
The first group consisted of 40 vehicles, data on nine of which were
averaged to give 32 observations. These vehicles were typically gasoline
engined with a displacement of between 1.6 and 2 liters. Data were
obtained for 96 trucks. Some of the truck data obtained on Barbados and
St. Vincent were averaged and 28 observations were used in the statistical
analyses. Typical of these trucks is a two-axled vehicle with a gross
vehicle weight of ten tonnes (six tonne pay load) powered by a six
cylinder, 100 BHP (SAE), diesel engine. Vehicle utilisation was very low,
with trucks in the survey recording an annual average of 13,000 kilometers
and cars and light goods around 16,000 kilometers. The methods used to
measure highway conditions were similar to those employed In Kenya. As the
team had hoped wide variation in highway geometry was found, with average
gradients over the survey period as high as 8.2 percent and average
curvature as high as 1,0800 /km being recorded. All user survey routes were
paved. Table 3.9 provides more detail.
As in the Kenyan study, the data analyzed relate to vehicle

operations over a 12-month period and this corresponds to the calendar year
1978. Final analyses and report writing were completed in the United
Kingdom. The results were published in two reports in 1982 - Hide (1982)
and Morosluk and Abaynayaka (1972).
3.2.4 The Indian Study, 1977-82
The Indian study was based at the Central Road Research Institute
headquarters In New Delhi and employed over 120 staff. The Indian study
was broad ranging, examining time valuation and accident rates and costs,
as well as the Items treated in the other studies. As In the other studies
fuel consumption was measured In a series of experiments, vehicle speeds In
a program of roadside speed observation, and maintenance, tire and other
costs In a road user survey.
In the fuel consumption study the Indian team used two cars, a
diesel engined jeep and a medium and a heavy truck. As in the Kenyan and
Caribbean studies the Intention was to predict bus fuel consumption by
applying suitable adjustments to medium trucks' fuel relationships. The
vehicles are described in Section 3.3. Fuel experiments were also
performed using two and three wheeled vehicles but the results are not
reported In this volume. Roadside speed data were collected at 76 sites,
time and space mean speeds being calculated by observers who used
stopwatches, noting numberplates and using radar equipment. Over 114,000
free speeds were recorded.
Highway conditions were measured using procedures similar to those

employed In Kenya and the Caribbean. Table 3.10 shows ranges of highway
Table 3.9: Ranges of Average Route Highway Characterlstics In the

Caribbean Road User Survey
Island Average Degrees Rise plus _Ru _ Rjhness

of Curvature Fall Bi IRI
(0/kJn) {m/km) (mm/ksm) (mtkm)
Barbados 90- 390 8 - 60 2600 - 5600 3.5 - 6.9
St Vincent 520 - 810 37 - 78 3200 - 8000 4.2 - 9.5
St Lucia 160 - 730 17 - 82 3300 - 7600 4.3 - 9.1
Dominirca 180 -1040 19 - S8 3800 - 9800 4.9 - 11.4
conditions observed at the test sites. These were all paved, with surfaces
varying from asphaltic concrete to waterbound macadam, and covered wide
ranges of highway geometry.
The user survey team of 46 staff collected a full range of operating

cost data for 939 vehicles - 640 buses, 232 trucks and 67 cars and jeeps. Of
the trucks and buses, 62 percent were manufactured by Tata, 29 percent by
Ashok Leyland. Most of the data were provided by large companies. Of the
121 companies recruited, 54 percent had fleets exceeding 50 vehicles and 78
percent had fleets exceeding 25 vehicles.
As In the other studies the survey team attempted to find vehicles

covering wide ranges of highway conditions. The ranges given In Table 3.10
show that they had some success, especially In finding vehicles operating
over sinuous routes and on rough routes. Unfortunately, much of the data
relating to high levels of curvature Is obtained In mountainous terrain and
the difficulties In disentangling gradient and curvature effects are
substantial. Many Indian roads have bi-directional single lane 3.8-meter
wide pavements and a major preoccupation of the road authorities was the
benefits to highway widening. Thus the Indian study Is notable in providing
more Information on pavement width than the other studies.
The Indian study reported In 1982 after only a short period of

analysis. We are fortunate to have had access to the data and where
particular difficulties arise with the relationships reported at the
conclusion of the study we have attempted to provide alternative results
which will serve better In applications.
64 USERCOST STUDIES
Table 3.10: HIghway Characteristics In the Indian Study
Roughnes Rise plus T Ribem Fall |Curvature Pavement

Fl IRI Fall (m/km) (rnmk.) (1uk'n) Wkith
(nmm/km) (m/km) (m/km) (m)
Fuel Experiments:
Mn 2130 2.9 _ 0 0 - -
mmx 10o10o(1) 11.7 _ 50 _ _
RoadsideSpeed:
Mean 444 5.7 - I 1.5 11.5 274 5.4

M*n 2050 | 2.8 _0 0 1 3.5
Me 152150(2) 16.9 _ 91 91 1243 7.0
Cars, Survey:
Mean 4987 6.2 10 - - 107 6.2

min 3416 4.5 3 - - 9 4.7
ax 69a5 8.4 36 - - 690 7.0
euss, survey:
Mean 85g3 7.3 15 - - 149 5.2

KMI 2925 3.9 1 - - 5 3.7
mx 12072 13.7 50 - - 1021 7.2
Trucks, Survey:
Mean 3t31 7.3 13 - - 137 6.0

MIn 29E0 3.9 1 - - 8 3.8
max 15600 17.2 58 - - 1215 7.0
1. Value for DIes Jeep. Car, Bus and Truck MuaimumIs 8200
2. Only two tea sections exceed 7120 mm/km (8.6 minkm. IRI).
Source: CRRI (1982).

3.3 DATA COLLECTION
3.3.1 User Cost Data
Information on user costs can be obtained from a variety of sources

- from vehicle and component manufacturers, and from vehicle dealers and
distributors. For certain cost Items whose consumption can be measured
continuously, like fuel, Information can be obtained from experiments using
Instrumented test vehicles. But experiments are expensive to conduct and the
data that they produce do not provide Information concerning owners' and
drivers' responses to highway conditions and to the business environment that
they face, so that In order to use data obtained from experlments one has to
attempt to model these responses. Cost items like tire and maintenance costs
are particularly difficult to study using experiments because their
consumption is only apparent at distinct and sometimes distantly separated
points In time.
In the roadside speed studies, road sections were selected with the
intentlon of obtaining good coverage of ranges and combinations of highway
characteristics of Interest. Highway gradient, curvature, roughness and
surface type received special attention and, In the Indian study, much
attention was also devoted to road width. Trucks' load condition has an
Important influence on speeds and a difficulty with roadside speed
observation Is that It is costly to obtain accurate estimates of loads
carried. In fact only In the Caribbean study were accurate vehicle load data
obtained, gross vehicle weights being determined at weigh stations some way
beyond the sites at which speed observations were made. In the Brazilian
study vehicle loads were estimated visually where possible, and vehicles were
recorded as empty, half loaded or full. In neither the Kenyan nor the Indian
studies were data obtained on the loads of vehicles observed In speed
studies. A study into the effect of gross vehicle weight on vehicle speeds
was carried out In Ethiopia subsequent to the Kenyan study (Abaynayaka et al.
1977), and the results were used to introduce weight effects Into the Kenyan
equations.
In all the studies fuel consumption data were obtained by observing

Instrumented test vehicles driven In a controlled manner over road sections
chosen to cover ranges and combinations of highway characteristics of
Interest. Generally the test sections were one kilometer long with half
kilometer long transition sectlons, to allow test vehicles to attain the
required speeds and gear selections prior to enterlng the test sections.
Details of the vehicles used In the studies' fuel consumption

experiments are given In Table 3.11. The Kenyan and Caribbean studles'
vehicles were purchased In Britain and shipped to the study regions. Vehicle
designs were modified steadily between 1971, when the Kenyan study vehicles
were purchased, and 1977, when vehicles were obtained for the Caribbean
study. Thus the 1977 version of the Ford Cortina used in the Caribbean had a
redesigned, "economy" carburetter. The Kenyan and Caribbean studies' Bedford
and Ford, normal controlled, or "cab-over," truck models are likely to be
Table 3.11: Experimental Test Vehicle Characteristics1
Vehicle class Study Fuel BHP(SAE)RPM Tire Number/Size GVW
'Car r Kenya t Gasoline 1 71/ 5000 I 4/ 165*13 892
Caribbean Gasoline 64/ 4750 4/ 165*13 1115
Brazil Gasoline 49/ 4600 4/ 560*15/4 ply I 1200
India Gasoline 50/ 4200 4/ 590*15/4 ply 1528
Kenya Gasoline I 85/ 4500 4/ 750*16 1705
-~ ~~~
-
Light Goods Vehicle

1 ~---
Caribbean
-.- I Gasoline 70/ 4500
----
4/ 185*14 2600
Brazil I Gasoline 61/ 4600 4/ 700-14/8 ply 2100
India Diesel 38/ 2300 4/ 600*16/10 ply 1200
Light Truck Kenya Diesel 107/ 2800 1 6/ 825*20 8420
Caribbean Diesel 113/ 2600 6/ 825*20 8420
Bra_zil Diesel I 103/ 3000 6t 700*16/10 ply 6100
Mtedium Trucki Brazil Diesel 149/ 2800 6/ 900*20/12 ply 15000
India Die"se 112/ 2800 6/ 900*20/14 ply I 12180
_ -__ ----- _ 1
-I- ~ t-------------
Heavy Truck2 Brazil Diesel 149/ 2800 10/ 1000*20/14 ply 18500
__India Diesel 1180/ 2200 6/ 1100*20/16 ply 16260
Articulated Truck Brazil Diesel 1 289/ 2200 18/ 1100*22/14 ply 1 40000
Bus Brazil Diesel 149/ 2800 6/ 900*20/12 ply 11500
1. The large Brazilian experimental fleet also included a medium and a large passenger car, together
with a gasoline engined light truck not included here. See Watanatada (1986) for details.
2. SAE Horsepower, GVW is gross vehicle weight in kilograms.
Source: Studies' reports.

useful for predicting fuel consumption of normally aspirated dlesel engined

trucks of around 12 tonnes gross vehicle weight, and the Caribbean Ford
Transit model Is likely to be useful In predicting fuel consumption of light
goods vehicles with petrol engines. However, even this popular model has
been totally redesigned recently and Its fuel efficiency has Increased.
Small diesel fuelled light goods vehicles are now being used In many
developing countries and their fuel consumption cannot be predicted using any
of the studies' experimental results. The Land Rover, used In the Kenyan
study Is a 4-wheel drive vehicle with unusually high fuel consumption for a
light goods vehicle. The Indian test vehicles were locally produced models
and their fuel consumption data are unilkely, with the exception of the two
axled trucks, to transfer well to other environments. In fact, radically new
car designs are to be Introduced In the Indian market shortly so that the
passenger car data obtained during the study may soon not be appropriate even
in India.
The Brazilian study data would seem to offer the best prospect for
predicting fuel consumption In the 1980s and beyond, because of the range of
vehicles used In the experiments and their relatively modern design.
However, the experimental vehicles were purchased In 1975 and therefore did
not benefit either from the adjustments to engines that followed the steep
oil price Increases of the 1970s or from developments in alternative fuels
and Improvements to design and manufacturing technologies which took place
after 1976. This can be seen by considering the three passenger cars used
for fuel experiments (only one Is shown in Table 3.11).
The small engined car, a Volkswagen, was based on a 1930s design and
was well suited to hard use and Brazilian conditions while fuel was cheap and
road surfaces rough. However It was costly to manufacture, and Its cramped
interior and high fuel consumption combined to cause a loss in popularity and
market share after 1975. In 1985 Brazil was the only country In the world to
manufacture this air-cooled, rear engined model and even that was modified to
use local alcohol fuels rather than gasoline. The medium car, a GM Opala,
was unfortunately fitted with a 6-cylinder gasoline engine which was
unusually large and produced fuel consumption figures between 50 to 80
percent higher than most vehicles in the car class. The large car was a V8
engined Chrysler, a typical "gas-guzzler" of the late 1960s and early 1970s
and Is of a type now little used in developing countries. The Brazilian
light goods vehicle, an air-cooled, rear engined, gasoline powered Volkswagen
Kombi, Is not typical of light goods vehicles used now and there Is some
question about the performance of the Scania super heavy tractor. This heavy
truck had very high fuel consumption compared with similar European versions
from the same manufacturer, particularly when it was running loaded on
grades. Recent investigations have revealed that the vehicle was fitted with
a low speed differential which may be partly responsible. This was not
realized when the vehicle's fuel data were collected and analyzed.
Prospective users of the Brazilian fuel study's results should use
predictions for this vehicle type with caution and check them against data
from vehicle operators In the environments In which the results are appiled.
The four studies' user cost surveys varied considerably In size but
their structure was qulte similar. The aim of all the studies was to
determine the Influences of highway characteristics on user costs, so that,
In selecting companies to appear In the surveys, adequate coverage of ranges

and combinations of highway conditions was sought. The road user surveys
were not designed to be representative surveys of commercial vehicle
operations In the countries In which they performed. Indeed, In order to
obtain data on vehicles working on extreme highway conditlons, Information
was on occasions acquired from quite atypical companies. Consequently the
surveys cannot be expected to provide particularly accurate information on
general levels of costs. They were designed to provide Information on cost
differentials associated with alternative highway conditions and users of the
equations reported later will need to calibrate the equations for the
environments that they face.
In order to obtain accurate estimates of costs associated with

maintenance activities occurring at discrete Intervals, vehicles were
monitored for substantial periods of time - In Kenya and the Caribbean for
two years, In Brazil for up to thirty-six months with an average survey
period of eighteen months, and In India for up to two years with an average
survey period of seventeen months. The data analyzed In the Kenyan and
Caribbean studles relate to twelve month periods of vehicle operation.
In the analysis of user cost data vehicles' costs are related to the
characteristics of the highways that vehicles travel. For user survey
vehicles these are averages of highway characterlstics over the route(s)
travelled during the survey period. In the final part of this chapter we
describe how highway characteristics were measured In the four studies.
3.3.2 The Measurement of Highway Characteristics
In all the studies It was necessary to record considerable

quantities of Information descrlbing the permanent features of the roadway,
like Its geometric alignment, together with variable conditions like surface
roughness. The measurement programs Included experimental road sections from
one to two kilometers long and commercial road users' routes that could be
many hundreds of kilometers In length - Table 3.12 shows the lengths of the
survey route networks. While It was possible to employ traditional surveying
techniques on experimental sections, the determination of highway geometry on
survey routes could not be accomplished In the time available using such
methods.
In the Kenyan study, surveying techniques were used to measure

experimental sites and maps were employed to derive measures of highway
geometry for survey vehicles' routes. An instrumented vehicle was equipped
to measure road surface roughness at experimental sites and for measuring
survey vehicles' routes, and a number of modifications were made to this
vehicle towards the end of the study to test the feasibility of recording
geometry Information dynamically. Though such tests were broadly successful,
they came too late to be fully incorporated Into the Kenya survey results.
As a result of these activities and of further research In the

United Kingdom, the TRRL published a description of the Instruments which
could be fitted to a light vehicle and used to measure highway
characteristics In developing countries (Abaynayaka 1976). The Ideas In this
document formed the basis for the Instrumented vehicles used In the
Table 3.12: Summary of Instruments Used to Measure Geometry. Width and Roughness
Highway Characteristics
Pave t Gometry GeomRoghnessSurvey Rout
ountry Pa"ment j Vertical Horizontal Surfaej Network Length
Width G ometry t3metmry |(k9he tm)
r~~~~~~~~~~~ _ - _ __ _ ___ _ ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ __ _ _ __ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Brszil Experimental fuel, Tape Rod & level Compas !Mameter in cars and
3600o
Roadside speed sections j Survey station wagons calibrated
by GMR proffilometer and
Uar Survey Routes Estimated Linear Gyrocompss Quarter-car Index Progran.
I by eye Accelerometer
Kenya Experimental fuel. TaeO Rod & Level Compass Bump integrator mounted
Roadside speed sections Survey i in station wagons gm
___________________ -_______
__________________ |__calibratedby TRRL
towed ffth wheel)
Usr Survey Routes - Map Mal
jCaribbean Experimental tuel. Tape Rod & level Gyrocomss Bump integrator mounted India 42000
and India Roadside speed sections Survey i in station wagons (cars in
! _______-_____ __ ______ - - - ____---- I India) calibratedby TRRL Caribbean not
Usr Survey Routes Estimated ! Gradometer Gyrocompas towed fith wheel) avaiable
by ey
(India) ' i i
subsequentCaribbean and Indian studies. By the time the TRRL published Its
report, the Brazilian study had developed Its own Instrumentedsurvey
vehicle, after fabricatingmuch of the equipment and spending considerable
time developing instrumentsappropriate to the needs of the study (GEIPOT
1981). A summary of the equipment used in the studies to measure horizontal
geometry, vertical geometry, width and surface roughness Is given In Table
3.12.
To measure vertical geometry the Carlbbean and Indian studies used a

TRRL designed Gradometer consisting of a weighted pendulum, dampened to
lessen the Influence of vibration and acceleration. The Brazilian study
utillsed an electronic linear accelerometer. Whether equipped with a
pendulum or accelerometer, an Instrumented vehicle must be driven at a
constant speed If gradients are to be recorded accurately. In the Carlbbean
and Indian studies the measurement speed was fixed at 32 km per hour. In the
Brazilian study the measurement speed was 50 km per hour for unpaved roads
and 80 km per hour for paved roads. The output of these Instrumentstogether
with data on the locationof measurements enabled a vertical profile of the
route to be made. At test sites where fuel and speed data were collected,
vertical and horizontalprofiles were produced using surveying methods and
vertical profiles were processed to produce two measures of vertical
geometry, meters of rise per kilometer and meters of fall per kilometer,both
expressed as positive quantities. Most vehicles In user surveys make round
trips, passing along routes In both directions, so In the analysis of user
survey data a single measure of vertical geometry was used, meters of rise
plus fall per kilometer, equal to the sum of the positive quantities - meters
of rise and meters of fall - expressed on a per kilometer basis.
Horizontalgeometry was measured using maps In the Kenyan study and

In all the other studies using an aircraft directionalgyrocompass. For use
In analysis of user survey data horizontalprofiles were processed to give a
single measure of horizontalgeometry - average degrees of curvature. This
measure is obtained by adding all the angular movements recordedon a route
and dividing the sum by route length.
Road widths were measured at fuel and speed test sites In all the
studies using measuring and walking tapes. Widths of survey routes were
assessed visually. In the Brazilian study the instrumentedvt 'cle made one
pass over a route segment to measure roughness and another to measure
geometry and assess width. In the Indian study all measurementswere taken
In a single pass.
Road surface roughnesswas known to exert a considerable Influence

on road user costs from early researchconducted In the United States (Moyer
and Winfrey 1939) and the results of the four country studies reported in the
remainderof Part II all confirm the Importance of surface condition. A
variety of systems were available to measure roughness Includingresponse
type Instruments, direct profile measuring systems, indirect profile
measuring systems and subjectivepanel assessments.
All response type instrumentslike the Bureau of Public Roads (BPR)

Roughmeter, the TRRL towed fifth wheel, the TRRL bump Integratorunit and the
Ralnhard Mays Ride Meter measure the displacement of a wheel suspension
relative to a vehicle body or towing frame. The first two of these

instruments are single wheeled devices that are towed behind a vehicle. The
latter two devices are directly mounted in the rear of a light vehicle
(usually a car or station wagon) and measure the cumulative movement of the
rear axle relative to the vehicle body. The data produced by these vehicle
mounted systems are affected by several factors In addition to surface
roughness, notably vehicle speed, suspension mechanisms (which deteriorate),
tire pressure, uneven tire wear and vehicle weight. To give an example of
the sorts of effects involved, It was found in the Brazilian study that a
change of 5 percent In vehicle weight or of 1 percent In tire pressure
changed the response measurement count by around 2 percent. The trailer
mounted units are more stable over time than vehicle mounted devices but
because of their slow operating speed they are not normally used for
extensive measurement programs.
In the Kenyan, Caribbean, and Indian studies the Instrumented

vehicles (station wagons, except in India where cars were used) carried Bump
Integrator Units. In Brazil Mays-Ride-Meters, producing a digital display of
the cumulated displacement of the rear axle every 320 meters were employed.
It was common to find more than one instrumented vehicle belng used to
measure surface roughness and because of response variations across time and
across vehicles the response type Instruments were regularly calibrated
against a standard roughness measurement.
On the road sections In Brazil that were chosen as calibratlon

sections, profiles were measured using a Profilometer which Is an Indirect
profile measuring device utilising an accelerometer to provide the reference
datum while the datum to ground information is given by a follower wheel
equipped with a potentiometer. In the other studies a towed fifth wheel
equipped with a Bump Integrator Unit was used to obtain information against
which to calibrate vehicle mounted roughness measurement systems.
An absolute measure of roughness can be obtained by processing the

proflle of vertical devlations of a road surface in wheel paths. Typically
the profile has a complex structure which can be decomposed into different
wave-lengths and amplitudes, this decomposition varying somewhat with the
type of surfacing. Different vehicles are affected by surface roughness in
different ways and for the purposes of determining the effects of surface
roughness on user costs It would be useful to have a multidimensional measure
of roughness capturing the various Important features of the road's vertical
profile. However, none of the studies used such a measure. Instead
unidimensional measures were employed, these being chose to capture the
primary influence of surface roughness on a moving vehicle. In the Brazilian
study, vertical profiles were processed through a computer program that
described the behaviour of a body mass, a single tire, shock absorber and
spring system, and the simulated movements of the body relative to the axle
were aggregated as the recorded profile was traversed. The resulting index,
measured per unit distance, was known as a quarter-car Index (QI) and In all
the Brazilian study, roughness measurements were recorded In Qi units. The
Kenyan, Caribbean, and Indian studies recorded roughness in millimeters per
kilometer of vertical displacement as measured by the towed Bump Integrator
Units.
Table 3.13: StandardisedRelationshipbetween the lnternational

Roughness Index (IRI) and Bump Integrator(Bl) Scales
Bi IRI
(mm/km) (m/km)
0 0
2000 2.8
4000 5. 1
6000 7.4
8000 9.5
10000 12.0
12000 14.0
14000 16.0
16000 18.0
18000 20.0
Source: Paterson (1986).
Because of the use by three of the four studies of the Bump

Integrator based, Bl, mm/km roughness measure and in the absence, at the time
of original writing, of any international standard scale for roughness
measurement, we have chosen to present in the main text the results of all
four studies expressed In Bi units. Brazilian study equations and
predictions originally expressed In Ql units have been converted using a
relationship recommended by Paterson et al. (1984):
1 Qi unit - 55 mn/km BI.
Paterson reports that this conversion - while adequate for paved and
gravel roads, should be amended for earth or parched-clay-gravel roads, to
1QI - 73BI. However he notes that these latter surface types were uncommon
In the Brazil study. These conversions are the result of an international
road roughness experiment coordinated by the World Bank and conducted In
Brazil In mid-1982. The experiment reported by Sayers et al. (1986) was
sponsored by the World Bank, GEIPOT and the Road Research Institute (IPR) In
Brazil and supported by research and road Institutions from the United
Kingdom, the United States, Australia and France.
Since completing the major part of this text an International

Roughness Index (IRI) has been proposed. This Is measured In meter per
kilometer units and Is a unidimensional profile summary statistic
Table 3.14: Descriptions of the IRI and BI Roughness Scales
BI (mm/km) IRI (m/kmn) Descriptors
0-1100 0 - 1.6 Extremely high-quality new asphalt concrete or slipform portland cement
conrete pavement for high speed motorways and airport runways, un-
common for highways. Undulations barely perceptible at 100 km/h.
Depressions 0-2 mm/3 m.
1100-1800 1.6 - 2.5 Typical high-quality asphalt concrete or very high-quality surface treatment
pavements; unpaved roads of excellent protile with fine-gravel or recently-
bladed earth surface. Depressions 3-5 mm/3 m. Undulations barely per-
ceptible at 80 km/h.
2200-3800 3 - 5 Asphalt pavements usually showing signs of deterioriation (may include wide
range of defects from 0 to 100% cracking, occasional patches, shallow
depressions or occasional shallow pot-holes), or defect-free surface treat-
ment pavements of moderate to fair shape-quality, or unpaved roads of
good quality. Depressions or unevenness are just visually perceptible,
e.g. 10-25 mm/3 m. Sharp movements or undulations perceptible at 80
km/h. Travel speeds less than 100 km/h.
4200-5600 5.5 - 7 Pavements with visible irregularities and shape defects (often with extensive
severe cracking or uneven patching over 20 to 50% of area), or defect-
free surface treatment of very poor shape. Moderate depressions, 20-40
mm/3 m. Unpaved roads with shallow-moderate depressions, minor pot-
holes, shallow corrugations (6-20 mm/1.5 m), or coarse gravel (stone
size greater than 60 mm) on well-shaped surface. Sharp movements and
undulations perceptible at 60 km/h, travel speeds less than 80 km/h.
6500-8300 8 - 10 Exceptional for paved roads, extreme deterioration, frequent depressions,

extensive patching and unavoidable potholes, travel speeds less than 60
km/h. Unpaved roads: clearly visible frequent transverse depressions
(20-40 mm/3 m), strong corrugations (10-30 mm/0.7-1.5 m) or
occasional deep depressions (40-80 mm/3 m) or pot-holes; travel speeds
less than 80 to 60 km/h.
10000-18000 12 - 20 Unpaved roads: unavoidable deep depressions (40-80 mm/1-3 m) or

occasional very deep depressions/potholes (more than 80 mm, deep),
frequent transverse or diagonal erosion gullies. Travel speeds generally
less than 50 km/h, and at 20 m/km generally less than 35 km/h.
Source: Paterson (1986).

representing cumulative relative axle-body displacement In a standardized

quarter car simulation, of the sort used In Brazil to obtain the Ql index.
The International Roughness Index is described In Paterson (1986). In
subsequent chapters, where predictions are presented In tables and graphs,
information concerning IRI m/km values corresponding to BI mm/km values is
provided. The relationship between the Bi and IRI scales Is shown in Table
3.13. The conversions between the BI and IRI scales are achieved using:
IRI - 0.0032(BI)0 .89
Bi - 630(iRI) 1 .1 2 .
Note that the relationship between the two indices is non-linear so that,
were graphs of predictions given later in Part II to be redrawn using the IRI
measure, the curvature of the plotted lines would alter. Table 3.14 gives a
description of the surface conditions that yield particular roughness
measurements (Bi and IRI).
Routes travelled by user survey vehicles were divided Into links and
average rise + fall, degrees of curvature and surface roughness for measured
links were combined by kilometer welghted averaging to produce route
averages. Frequencies with which routes were travelled were obtained for all
survey vehicles and route averages were combined, again using kilometer
weighted averaging, to produce averages of highway conditions experienced by
survey vehicles during the survey period. Since the IRI Index Is related
non-linearly to the BI measure, average survey period IRI cannot be
reproduced accurately Just from knowledge of average BI or 01.
CHAPIER 4
Vehicle Speeds
The first of the studies' results to be presented are those

concerning vehicle speed. The prediction of vehicle speed Is central to
the prediction of road user costs in the methodology adopted in the user
cost studies in India, Brazil, the Caribbean, and Kenya. Vehicle speeds
determine Journey times so that predictions of speeds before and after
highway Improvements are required If travel time savings are to be
evaluated. Depreciation, Interest, and crew costs are generally avallable
on a per time period basis and to convert them to the per unit output basis
that is relevant for cost benefit analysis of highway Investments,
kilometers travelled per time period has to be predicted. Given hours
driven per time period, kilometers travelled is proportional to vehicle
speed so that vehicle speed predictions play a role In determining
depreciation, Interest, and crew costs. And, since in all four studies
fuel consumption is written as a function of highway characteristics and of
vehicle speed, to predict fuel consumption, predictions of vehicle speed
are required.
In all four user cost studies speeds were obtained from roadside
observation of vehicles about their normal business on short sections of
road selected to cover wide ranges of highway conditlons. The methods used
have been described In Chapter 3 and differ only slightly from study to
study. The data used to estimate the equations reported In this chapter
are free flow speeds on road sections, along the length of which highway
conditions were uniform. In the Indian study speeds on congested highways
were studied and the Influence of slow moving (e.g., animal powered)
traffic was examined. Preliminary results are given in CRRI (1982). In
the Brazilian study roadside speed data obtained at short test sections
were supplemented by speeds recorded at longer (2 km) sections and by
Information collected from operating schedules and tachograph records
during the road user survey. In the Indian study data on vehicle speeds
were obtained from time tables or operating schedules for all vehicles
participating in the user survey.
In Sections 4.2, 4.3, and 4.4 results obtained using roadside and
survey speed data concerning respectively cars and light goods vehicles,
buses and trucks are presented. Details of estimation methods, summary
statistics, means and ranges of explanatory variables and so forth are
given in the appendix to this chapter. An appendix to Chapter 5 provides
tables of speed predictions for combinations of highway roughness, vertical
and horizontal geometry.
The speed models available from the Kenyan, Caribbean and Indian
studies write speed as simple linear functions of highway characteristics
such as average rise + fall, average degrees of curvature and surface
75
76 VEHICLE SPEEDS
roughness. The Brazilian speed model Is substantially more complex and

before proceeding to consider the predictions that It produces It is
necessary to explain its structure. This is the subject of the next
section.
4.1 THEBRAZILSPEEDMODEL
The relative complexity of the Brazil study speed model arises

because in the model an attempt is made to allow for Interactions amongst
and non-linearities in the effects on vehicle speed of highway and vehicle
characteristics. This is achieved by regarding attalned speeds as the
minimum of constraining or maximum allowable velocities (M.A.V.'s), most of
which are associated with distinct highway features, and by modelling these
M.A.V.'s by reference to vehicle characteristics and the constraints upon
vehicle performance that are Imposed by highway conditions. Models of this
sort have been used by Guenther (1969) and Sullivan (1977).
At the heart of the Brazil study speed model are the relationships
between maximum allowable velocities and vehicle and highway
characteristics. The relationships are Intended to describe the behaviour
of vehicles In steady state, that Is when highway conditions are constant,
and have been experienced for sufficient time to ensure that speed Is not
changing. Consequently, they were estimated using data relatlng to
vehicles believed to be In steady state and using road sections where
attaining steady state speed was possible.
Of course In practice vehicles at times travel at other than

steady state speeds. To predict Journey speeds when such considerations
are Important there Is a version of the Brazil speed model, known as the
"micro-transitional" model, In which speed change cycles are modelled.
Details can be found In Watanatada et al. (1987). In this chapter we
describe and present estimates of the version of the model Intended for use
In large scale highway planning exercises In which transitional effects and
the heterogeneity of highway conditlons are not modelled. In this
"aggregate" model, highways are regarded as homogeneous with respect to
highway conditions, with highway characteristics measured by the distance
weighted averages of their values along the length of the highway.
In the model maximum allowable velocities are associated with

curvature (Vc) and surface roughness (VR) and there are two velocities
associated with gradient (VOR and VBR), although only one of these Is a
potential constraining velocity at any point In time. The velocity VDR Is
associated wlth the driving power of the vehicle. The velocity VBR Is
associated with Its braking capability and does not act to constrain
attained speed on positive gradlents or on negative gradients for which
gradient exceeds the vehicle's coefficient of roliing resistance. A fifth
constraining velocity, VDE, Is Interpreted as maximum "desired speed" and
Is Intended to represent an ultimate upper limit on speed of travel.
The maximum allowable velocities are thought of as varying from

vehicle to vehicle and from section to section, variation being only In
VEHICLE SPEEDS 77
part attributable to variation in observed vehicle and highway

characterlstics. The average, or expected values of the M.A.V.'s, denoted
by VDR, VBR, VC% VR and VDE are specified as functionsof observed vehicle
and highway characteristics. A vehicle travelling over a road section
generates realisations of the maximum allowable velocities, vDR, vBR, vC,
vR, and vDE, and, since vehicle speed is assumed to be maximised, but
constrained by the maximum allowable velocities, attained speed v Is
related to the maximum allowable velocities by
(1) v - min (VDR,VBR,vC, vR, vDE)
The attained speed v Is regarded as a realisation of a variable V - min

(VDR, VBR, VC' VR, VDE) which has expectationV. Watanatada et al. (1987)
give formulae for the means, VDR, VBR, VC VR as functions of vehicle and
highway characteristics and they provide values for VDE. These are
reproduced in the appendix to this chapter.
In order to predict average speed, V, as a function of average
maximum allowable velocities (VDR,VBR, VC, VR, VDE) and thus as a function
of highway and vehicle characteristics, assumptions concerning the jolnt
probability distribution of the maximum allowable velocities must be
Imposed. In the Brazilian speed model these velocities are assumed to have.
independent Welbull distributions with common shape parameter equal to p
(see e.g. Johnson and Kotz (1970) for a survey of the propertles of Welbull
distributions). Under this assumption the probability that, say, VC
exceeds some value vC is given by:
(2) P[VC > vcJ - exp{- OC vC1/p) VC > 0,
and the expected value of VC, VC, Is related to OC and fl by:
(3) E(VC) - VC - prcp)eC,
where r(fl) Is the Gamma function, xN e xdx.
Attained speed V Is the minimum of the maxlmum allowable

velocities so that:
P[V > VI - PEVDR > v n VBR > v n Vc > v n VR > v n VDE > v]
78 VEHICLE SPEEDS
and the Independence of maximum allowable velocities allows us to write

this as:
(4) P[V > v] - PEVDR v] P[VBR > v] P[VC > v] PEVR > v] PEVDE > v]
- exp { - E0DR + OBR + OC + OR + ODE] v 'Pi
so that V also has a Welbull distribution with shape parameter If the

I.
Independence assumption Is not valid or If the distributions of the maximum
allowable velocities do not have common shape parameters then equation (4)
does not hold. The independence assumption falls to hold, if for example
vehicles with relatively low maximum allowable velocities associated with,
say, gradient tend to have relatively low maximum allowable velocities
associated with, say, roughness. Shape parameters will vary If the
dispersions of the log maximum allowable velocities are not all equal.
From equations (3) and (4) we have the following relationship

between expected attained speed V - E(V) and the expected maximum allowable
velocities associated with each feature of the highway:
(5) V - U(V )D + (VBR)-'/ + (Vc) + (VR + (vDE
Speed predictions are obtained by calculating average maximum

allowable velocities associated with gradient (VDR, VBR), with curvature
(VC), wlth roughness (VR) and the average maximum "desired" speed (VDE),
using the formulae and parameter estimates given in Table A4.1 in the
appendix and appropriate values for gradient, curvature and roughness.
Having obtained predicted average maximum allowable velocities, predicted
average attained speed Is then calculated using equation (5) and the
estimated values of P (which are vehicle class specific) which are given in
the appendix. Finally, an approximately unbiased speed prediction is
2
obtained by multiplying through by a factor exp (uf /2) using values for a2
given in Table A4.1.
In the aggregate speed model average values for highway

characteristics are entered into these formulae and, Initially, separate
predictions are obtained for speed of uphill and downhill travel, the model
being applied once with gradient specified as positive and once with
gradient specified as negative. Journey speed Is obtained as the harmonic
mean of the two speed predictions that result.
The three graphs in Figure 4.1 Illustrate the operation of the

model for a heavy truck carrying a net load of 6 tonnes on a paved surface.
Each graph shows the response of predicted speed to changes in a specific
VEHICLE SPEEDS 79
highway characteristic. Flgure 4.1a shows the effect of surface roughness

for a relatively straight downhill section. The predicted speed and the
predicted constraining velocity associated with the varying factor are
graphed as solid lines and the other predicted constraining velocities are
graphed as dashed lines. In Figure 4.1a the maximum desired speed Is
relatively Influential on smooth routes but Its effect virtually disappears
as roughness Increases. VC and VDE are Independent of roughness but
roughness affects VDR and VBR through the coefficient of rolling
resistance. Figure 4.1b shows the effect of gradient and again we see that
VDE has appreciable influence only on relatively flat routes. Gradient has
no effect on VDE, VC or VR. Figure 4.1c shows the effect of varying
curvature - note that the predicted speed here Is to be regarded as that
attained_on a curve sufficiently long for speed to be constant. VDE, VBR,
VDR and VR are all independent of horizontal alignment.
Watanatada et al. (1987) report the results of limited

Investigation Into the predictive accuracy of the aggregate model In the
Brazilian environment using speed data obtained from roadside observation
of vehicles at six road sections ranging In length from 2 km to 4.2 km.
Observed speeds, averaged by vehicle classes, were regressed against speeds
predicted using the "aggregate" model described above. For all vehicle
classes the fitted lines have positive Intercepts and slopes less than one,
ranging from 0.66 to 0.90, with R2 statistics ranging from 0.47 to 0.72.
Thus there Is some indication of underprediction of speeds at low speeds
and overprediction of speeds at high speeds, but the sample of sectlons
used In this exercise Is very small and It would be unwise to draw any
general conclusions.
Watanatada et al. (1987) also report comparisons of predicted

speeds obtained using the "aggregate" model with speeds derived from bus
tachograph records obtained during the Brazilian study's road user survey.
These data are average round trip, space mean speeds for 41 bus routes and
are perhaps not ideal for use in assessing the predictive accuracy of the
"aggregate" speed model In which transitional effects are not modelled,
because some of the bus routes Involve qulte frequent stops. Indeed for
these data the squared correlation between observed and predicted speeds is
0.51, lower than most of the correlations found In the analysis of data
from relatively short test sections described above, and marginally lower
than the squared coefficient of multiple correlation (0.56) obtained when
the observed bus tachograph speeds are related linearly to the recorded
values (see Watanatada et al. 1987) of average rise + fall, average degrees
of curvature and surface roughness.
Further details concerning the Brazilian study speed model are

given In the appendix. In the next three sectlons the results obtalned In
all four studies are presented and compared.
4.2 CAR AND LIGHT GOODS VEHICLE SPEEDS
Speed equations as reported In the four studies are presented in

the appendix, together with summary statistics and comments concerning the
Figure 4.1: Effect of Constraining Factors on Predicted Steady-State Speed
(a) SuWbc
Iimgulrly (b) VeEIedAigment Alignment
(c) Hodzontal
Speed(km/h) Speed(km/h) Speed(km/h)

30D0 VBRAK 300 -300
270 - 3270- VCURVE 270 VBRAKE

VCURVE
240 - 240 240
210 210 210

VROUGHVRLHVOG
180 \ 180 .180----- --
150 _…\VDRIrVE 150 _VDRVE 150 VDRIVE
120 - 120 120 VCURVE

VDESIR VDESIR VDESIR
0090.-....................... 90 - - - 90..
0
60 60 60
30 -30 30
X 0 I I I I I00 I I I I
0 25 50 75 100 125 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 200 400 600 800 1,000
Roughness(Qi) Gradient (%) Curvature(degrees/km)
Curvature=25degrees/km;grodlent=-3.5% Ql; curvature=25degrees/km

Roughness=40 QI;grodient=-3.5%
Roughness=40
V=Predlctedsteody-statespeed
VEHICLE SPEEDS 81
data used and estimation procedures. The equations are summarized In Table
4.1 below. The Brazilian speed model estimated using roadside speed data
is too complex to present in this section and details are given in the
appendix. Most of the equations given In Table 4.1 derive from roadside
speed data but two of the equations were obtained using data from user
survey companies. In both cases no accurate estimates of the effect of
road curvature on vehicle speed could be found, largely because of high
correlations among geometry measures In the data sets. It should be borne
In mind that the coefficients on rise + fall obtained using survey data may
be inflated as a result of omitting curvature.
The designs of the cars found in the studies differed greatly, as

noted In Chapter 3, and we can expect ambient speeds to differ across
countries In consequence. Further, we might expect to find relatively high
speeds In Brazil, where journeys exceeding 200 km are common, and
relatively lower speeds In the Caribbean where Journeys around the small
Islands are necessarily short. Finally, to the extent that speed of travel
is Influenced by economic conditions, speeds can be expected to vary across
countries because of differences in relative prices.
Inspecting Table 4.1 It can be seen that measures of rise, fall,

curvature, and surface roughness take negative coefficlents but that the
magnitudes obtained vary quite considerably. The Indian roadside speed
equation Includes pavement width as an explanatory variable though the
width effect Is rather small, every one meter reduction In width being
associated with a I km/hr reduction In speed. The Kenyan, Caribbean, and
Brazilian studies all recommend adjustments to vehicle speed predictlons to
allow for pavement widths narrower than 5 meters. The adjustment factors
reported In the Kenyan and Caribbean studies Imply a speed reduction of
around 7.5 km/hr for every 1 m reduction in width below 5 m.
The equations are graphed for all vehicle classes, once against
curvature, once against rise + fall, and once against surface roughness In
Figures 4.2 - 4.5. The graphs show speed varying as highway
characteristics are changed one at a time and other variables that appear
In the equations are set to values, recorded In notes accompanying the
graphs, chosen to be close to average values observed in the studies. In
the graphs the measure of vertical geometry used Is average rise + fall
(RF) rather than rise or fall, so as to maintain consistency with user
survey results given later which all use rise + fall. In practice users
will often want to predict round trip speed In which case rise + fall Is
relevant. In most of the graphs that appear In this book the extent of the
plotted lines give a rough Indication of the range of the explanatory
variable observed In the study generating the equation. In this and the
following chapter this convention has been broken on occasions since there
seems to be some consensus that equations obtained from experimental fuel
and roadside speed data can be extrapolated to a llmited extent.
In developing predictlons for the Brazilian study model the

default formula relating superelevation to average degrees of curvature
given In Appendix A4.3.1 has been applied. This has a dramatic effect on
predicted speeds. If superelevation Is not adjusted as curvature Is
altered as described In A4.3.1 then the model can predict curvature effects
82 VEHICLE SPEEDS
Table 4.1: Equations for Vehicle Speed (km/h): Cars and

Light Goods Vehicles
Coefflcients on
Vehicle Country Type of Road
Clas Study Surface Intercept Rise Fall Curvature Roughness Other Varables(l)
CmCkm) (m/km) (0/k) B1(mm/km)
Cars India Roadside Mostly Paved 60.6 -. -. 18 -. 0078 -. 0036 +1 O5W
2
Cars India SurveyX ) Mostly Paved 58.7 -. 40 -. 0023
Cars Brazil Survey(2) Paved and 66.2 -. 27 -. 0040 +7.26T + .068D

Unpaved
cars Kenya Roadside Paved 102.6 -. 37 -. 08 -. 111 -. 0049A
Cars Kenya Roadside Unpaved 84.2 -. 21 -. 07 -. 118 -. 00089 -. 131 - . 19RD
Cars Caribbean Roadside Paved 67.6 -. 08 -. 07 -. 024 -. 00067
Light Kenya Roadside Paved 86.9 -. 42 -. 05 -. 074 -. 0028a

Goods
Light Kenya Roadside Unpaved 81.2 -. 32 -. 059 -. 097 -0005 -. 29M - .20RD
Goods
Ught Caribbean Roadside Paved 62.6 -.09 -.07 -. 022 -.00066

Goods
Notes
Equations for vehicle speed are linear in explanatory variables with coefficients as given above.
(1) Other variables defined as follows: W = pavement width (m)

T = number of trips per day
D = one way route distance (km)
A = Altitude (m)
M = Moisture content I%)
RD = rut depth (mm)
(2) In survey equations vertical geometry is measured by average rise plus fall. Coeffident In
column headed "rise" is coefficient on average rise plus fall for survey equations.
VEHICLE SPEEDS 83
Figure 4.2: Vehicle Speed (V) versus Rise + Fall (RF): Cars
v
70-
K B
60 __
50
40v
30
I
20
10
__ _ _X _ __3- _ _ __ _ __ _ _ __........._........RF
0 10 20 30 40 s0 60 70 80 90
Ecuations: B = Brazil Medium Cars

K = Kenya Cars
C = Caribbean : Cars
I = India Cars
Units: V = Speed (kmth)

RF = Rise plus Fall (m/km)
C = Curvature (0/km)
R = RoughnessBI (mm/km), IRI (m/km)
Variables not Plotted: C = Curvature = 500 /km

R = Roughness= 5500 BI (mm/km), 6.8 IRI (m/km)
M = Moisture Content (Kenya only) = 2.6%
RD = Rut Depth (Kenya only) = 18.9 mm.
W = Width (India only) = 7 m.
ALT = Attitude (Brazil only) = 0
GVW = Gross Vehicle Weight (Brazil only) = 1.4 tonnes
For other Brazilian speed model variables not plotted, see default values
in the Appendix.
84 VEHICLE SPEEDS
Figure 4.3: Vehicle Speed (V) versus Curvature (C): Cars
60i
70 \
60 -
aD- -- -~~~~~~~~
- - - - - ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~~~~
- -- - --- -
40
- --- C
10
0 200 400 600 600 1000 1200
Vehicle Speed (V) versus Roughness (R): Cars
70
60 ___ _ -
B (pav.d)
40 -
20-
,~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~,B
10
0 2000 4000 60oo 6000 10000 12000
2. 51 --- . R, IRI
2.8 5.1 7.4 9. 5 12.0 14.o
VEHICLE SPEEDS 85
Figure 4.4: Vehicle Speed (V) versus Rise + Fall (RF):

Light Goods Vehicles and Utilities
v
70
s0
511- ----
8w'-s-------~~~- C
40_
13
. ~~~
~............ ...,, ,,,
......... ......... RF
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Z0
Equations: B = Brazil Utility Vehicle

K = Kenya Light Goods Vehice
C = Caribbean Light Goods Vehide
Units: V = Speed (km/h)

RF = Rise plus Fall (mr/km)
R = Roughness, Bi (mm/km). IRI (m/mk)
Variables not Plotted: C = Curvature = 500 /km

R = Roughness= 5500 S1 (mm/km), 6.8 IRI Cm/km)
M = Moisture Content (Kenya onlY) = 2.6%
ALT = Altitude (Brazil only) = 0
GVW = Gross Vehice Weight (Brazil only) = 2.1 tonnes
For other Brazilianspeedmodel variablesnot plotted,see defaultvalues
In theAppendix.
86 VEHICLE SPEEDS
Figure 4.5: Vehicle Speed (V) versus Curvature (C):

v
70
40 ',
30
40 *~"C-.
20-
10
o~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
0] 200 400 Sao Bo0 1000 1200
Vehicle Speed (V) versus Roughness (R):

Light Goods Vehicles and Utlilties
70
5D
B
Zp (paved)
40 B (uOpav-d)
20-
20
10
a 2000
.00 4000 9000 120000 12000
2.8 5.1 7.A 9.5 12.0 14.0

VEHICLE SPEEDS 87
which are much larger than those reported below. Users should take care to
ensure that the formula used here Is applicable In environments in which
they apply the model.
Considering first car speeds, and the equations derived from

roadside speed data, the graphs show quite clearly that car speeds vary
substantially across countries. Predicted speeds are generally lowest
using the Indian study model and highest for the Brazilian study model. It
should be noted that the Brazilian model was estimated using data only on
vehicles which, In the judgement of the analysts, had attained steady state
speed. The Brazilian speed equations graphed here refer to the "average"
sized passenger car (see Table A4.2) with a gross vehicle weight of 1.4
tonnes.
All the studies give speed as linear functions of curvature, rise

+ fall and roughness except the Brazilian study. The Caribbean and
particularly the Brazilian study equations show very small effects for rise
+ fall, vehicle speeds being predicted by the Brazilian study model to be
virtually constant until average rise + fall exceeds 60 m/km, which
represents quite severe vertical geometry on a long route. Very pronounced
curvature effects are predicted by the Kenyan and Brazilian models at low
levels of curvature. The Kenyan model predicts speed reductions of the
order of 35-40 percent as curvature Increases from 00 /km to 2500 /km. The
effects are somewhat smaller in the Brazilian model and become less marked
as curvature Increases. Assumptions concerning superelevation are critical
here. The effect of roughness varies across the studies too. The Indian
and Brazilian models predict quite sharp reductions In speed once roughness
exceeds 4,000 mm/km and the Brazilian model predicts different speeds at
the same roughness level on paved and unpaved routes.
In the Kenyan study also, separate relationships are given for

paved and unpaved routes. However, no roughness effect Is reported for
paved routes so In Figure 4.3 only the equation for unpaved routes Is
drawn. Where speed Is graphed against rise + fall or curvature the
equations drawn for the Kenyan and Brazillan studies are those for unpaved
routes. At any given level of roughness, speeds are predicted to be lower
on unpaved than on paved routes. This is possibly due in part to different
responses to surface texture produced by the roughness measuring
Instruments. However, if unpaved routes show greater variation in
roughness along their length then we would expect average speeds to be
lower on unpaved routes than on paved routes with the same average
roughness. First, because drivers may travel slower on unpaved routes to
avoid excessive damage to vehicles should an unusually rough section be
suddenly encountered. Second, because of the manner in which average
speeds are calculated. If we regard a road section as composed of a number
of equal length subsections then average speed over the road section Is the
harmonic mean of speeds along the subsections. Since, In the harmonic
mean, more "weight" Is given to the slower speed, average speed over the
whole section will be lower than speed over the average roughness
subsections of the section if speed Is a linear or concave function of
roughness over the relevant range.
Predictions obtained using the user survey speed equations are

lower than those obtained from roadside speed equations. This Is to be
88 VEHICLE SPEEDS
expected since the user survey speed data relate to average speeds over
long Journeys during which vehicles accelerate and decelerate and on
occasions encounter congestionand delays.
Speed equations for utilities and light goods vehicles obtained In

the Brazilian, Caribbean,and Kenyan studies are graphed In Figures 4.4 -
4.5. The Indian study did not report equations for this vehicle class.
Here there is much more agreement across the studies concerning speed
levels. As for cars, the Kenyan and Brazilian study equatlons predict
large curvature effects at low levels of curvature. The Caribbean study
results are notable In predicting low sensitivityof speeds to variations
In roughness and rise + fall. In fact only the Brazilian study predicts
substantial reductions In speed on Increasing surface roughness for this
vehicle class. Appendix C to Chapter 5 contains tables of predicted speeds
for cars and light goods vehicles.
4.3 BUS SPEEDS
Bus speed equations as reported In the studies are given In the,

appendix and, with the exception of the Brazillan speed model, they are
summarized In Table 4.2. Predictions from all the models are graphed In
Figures 4.6 and 4.7, and are given In tables In Appendix C to Chapter 5.
For the Brazilian model graphs of speed agalnst roughness show
relationshipsfor paved and for unpaved surfaces. The graph derived from
the Kenyan study model relates to speeds on unpaved surfaces.
Bus speeds vary across countrles, as Is to be expected, In part

because of the differences In vehicle type described In Chapter 3. On good
quality paved routes the Brazilian model predicts higher speeds than the
Kenyan and Indian models. On unpaved surfaces with high geometric
standards the Brazilian and Kenyan models predict rather similar speeds.
There Is some agreement on the effect of gradient on bus speeds, the
Brazilian,Kenyan, and Indian models predicting a 20-30 percent reduction
In speed on Increasinggradient on good quality paved roads from lOm/km.
Power to weight ratlos for the typical loaded bus were similar In all three
studies (around 8.5 km/tonne).
Figure 4.7 shows the relatively large curvature effects predicted

by the Kenyan and Brazilian speed models as curvature Increaseson
relativelystraight routes. Again assumptionsconcerning superelevatIon
are critical In the Brazil study model. The curvature effect predicted by
the Indian study models Is much smaller, approaching that predicted by the
Brazilian model on very sinuous routes. It should be noted that none of
the test sections used In the Kenyan study had curvature exceeding 2000 /km
whereas In the Indian study curvature up to 1,2430 /km was recorded and in
Brazil, 2,8660/km. Figure 4.7 shows vehicle speed plotted against
roughness for routes of reasonably good geometry. The Kenyan model shows
very small roughness effects compared with the Indian model throughoutthe
roughness range, quite similar to those predicted by the Brazilian model
for relativelysmooth routes. In both the Kenyan and Brazilian models
speeds are predicted to be higher on paved than on unpaved routes with
Identicalmeasured roughness.
VEHICLE SPEEDS 89
Table 4.2: Equatlons for Vehicle Speed (km/h): Buses
Coeffcents on
Country Typ of Ro.d
Study Road Intercept Rb Fal raturv Roughns Xher Variabls(1)
Study
sudwe ~ ~ rnkm (*/kun) Bi
rn/in)(m/bn{Xu
Im/ktm) (mm/kinm
1tm2
India Roadside Payed

yMosty 55.0 -. 301 -. 228 - 0077 -. 02 +.0.61W
21
India Survey( Paved
Mostly 30.6 -. 315 -. 0004 +2.29W
Brazil Survey Paved and 64.1 -. 0616 -003 +.o18D

unpaved
Kenye Roadside Paved 72.5 -526 067 - .066 - 0042A
Kenya Roadside Unpaved 62.6 -. 492 .010 - 046 -. 00036 -. 16M -. ORD
for vehicespeedsare linw in explanatory

Nogjg Equations as given above
variableswithcoefficients
(1). (2) see Table 4.1.
Predictions of bus speeds obtained using equations derived from

Brazilian and Indian study user survey data are substantially lower than
the predictions given by the corresponding models derived from roadside
speed data.
4.4 TRUCK SPEEDS
Truck speeds equations as reported In the four studies are given

In the appendix and the results from the Kenyan, Caribbean, and Indian
studles are summarized In Table 4.3. Speed equations for all models are
graphed In Figures 4.8 and 4.9, and predicted speeds are given In tables In
Appendix C to Chapter 5.
Speed equatlons for medium sized trucks with two axles up to 15

tonnes gross vehicle weight, are reported In all four studies. Larger
trucks than these were uncommon In St. Lucia and Indla and no results for
these heavier vehicle types were reported In either study. Heavier trucks
were operating In Kenya but there were Insufficient speed data to allow an
equation to be derived for these vehicles. Two main types of larger truck
were found In Brazil, a three axle rigid vehicle grossing around 20 tonnes
and a five axle articulated vehicle with a gross vehicle weight of 40
tonnes. There were other types of heavy vehicle but these two can be
regarded as representative of the group. The three axle rigid truck shared
the same engine as the medium truck and so had a much lower power to weight
ratlo and Inferior performance on gradients. The heavy articulated truck
had a turbocharged diesel engine producing good performance even when fully
loaded. We consider first the medium truck speed results and then those
for the heavy and articulated Brazillan vehicles.
90 VEHICLE SPEEDS
Figure 4.6: Vehicle Speed (V) versus Rlse + Fall (RF): Buses
v
50-
40
.,KB
30 "
15
10
..........-- 1-..
...... l .. . . . ... .. . RF
0 10 20 a0 40 S0 s0 70 80 g0
Equations: B = Brazil: Bums

K = Kenya: Buses
I= India : Buses
Unfit: V Speed (kmhh)

R = Roughness, Bi (mm/khn), IRI (mtkm)
Variables not Plotted: C = Curvature = 5OO/km

R = Roughness= 5500 BI (mm/km), 6.8 IRI (m/km)
GVW = Gross Vehile Weight (Brazil only) = 11 tonnes
in the Appendix.
VEHICLE SPEEDS 91
Figure 4.7: Vehicle Speed (V) versus Curvature (C): Buses
451
40" - -- -\ -
0 K
K____ ----
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
40~~~~~~, ,_ __ ---------- B
3 0 … …B
E
20-
15-
5~
,_,__,__C
___T__T____ '__'__,_____
O ___r________TTTT
0 200 400 500 sOC 1000 1200
VehicleSpeed (V) versus Roughness (R): Buses
70-
40
50-
sol- ~ -,-s,-----s
20
20- .. .. .. .
. R_
..
30- ~ 2. . 95 1.0 1.
2000 4000 6000 B0D0 10000 12000

0
'.B 5.19.5 7.4 12.0 4.0R ,

92 VEHICLE SPEEDS
Table 4.3: Equations for Vehicle Speed (km/h): Trucks
Coefficients on
Country Truck Type Type of Road - r-
Study Surace Intercept Rise P.Fall Curvature Roughness Other
0 1
l i (mlkm)l (m/km) ( /km) B1(mmtkm) Variables( ).
India Mostly 2-axle Roadside Mostly 47.3 -. 269 1-.265 -. 010 1 -. 0019 +1.06W
-up
to 16t GVW Paved ; .
India Mostly 2-axle User(2) Mostly 31.4 -. 307 +1.48W

up to 16t GVW Survey Paved
_ _ _ _|-- -- - -- ---------- -------
Caribbean Mostly 2-axle Roadside Paved 51. 9 -. 222 -I122 -. 017 i -. 0011 +.559PW
up to 12t GVW
Kenya Medium Roadside Paved 68.1 -. 519 +.030 - 058 I -. 0004A

and Heavy I
Kenya Medium Roadside Unpaved 69.3 -. 433 t tlO4 -. 061 -. 00060 -. 22M -,27RD
and Heavy l l _
Notes Equations for vehice speeds are linear in explanatory variables with coefficients as given above.
(1). (2) see Table 4.3-
4.4.1 Medium Trucks
Considerable variation in truck speed levels across countries is

to be expected, even for similar sized vehicles, due to the nature of the
service provided by owners and variations In the Incidence of overloading.
There seems to be no clear pattern in predicted speed levels except that
Kenyan trucks are generally the fastest over the observed range of highway
characteristics and Indian trucks are the slowest. Relatively low truck
speeds are predicted by the Indian model. These are unlikely to be due to
the presence of slow moving and animal traffic on Indian roads because
roadside speed data are normally obtained under free flow conditions. The
overloading reported In CRRI (1982) may have some influence on Indian
speeds. The Brazilian model predicts large effects for all highway
characteristics so that relatively high speed levels on well designed roads
fall rapidly as the geometric design worsens or surface condition
deteriorates.
Figure 4.8 shows predictlons of the effects of gradient on medium

truck speeds and these are quite similar across the four studies. The
Caribbean and Kenyan studies predict the smallest effects, speeds
Increasing by 11 percent (Carlbbean) and 18 percent (Kenya) as rise + fall
drops from 50m/km to 20m/km. The Brazilian and Indian study models predict
speed Increases of around 25 percent In this situation. The predicted
effects of curvature are graphed in Figure 4.9. As for other vehicle
classes the Brazil study model predicts relatively large curvature effects
for curvature changes on relatively straight routes. The Kenyan study
model, estimated using data over only a limited range of curvature also
predicts large effects.
VEHICLE SPEEDS 93
Flgure 4.8: Vehicle Speed (V) versus Rlse + Fall (RF): Medium Trucks
v
590
45-
40 ".
25- ~~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 5
20
15
10
5-
O- ...... ......... ......... ..... . ...... lE§|zlES4

...... .,1 , R Ff
0 10 20 30 40 so so 70 ea 9t
-quations: B = Brazil: Medium Trucks

K = Kenya Medium Trucks
C = Caribbean : Medium Trucks
I India: Medium Trucks
Units: V = Speed (km/h)

RF = Rise plus Fall (mrkin)
C = Curvature (0 /km)
R = Roughness, Bi (mm/km). IRI (m/km)
Variables not Plotted: C = Curvature = 500/km

R = Roughness = 5500 Bi (mm/km), 6.8 IRI Cm/km)
RD Rut Depth (Kenya only) = 18.9 mm.
GVW = Gross Vehicle Weight (Brazil only) = 14 tonnes
PW = Power to Weight ratio (Caribbeanonly) 9.3 Bhp/tonne
For other Brazilianspeedmodel variablesnot plotted,see defaultvalues

in the Appendix.
94 VEHICLE SPEEDS
Figure 4.9: Vehicle Speed (V) versus Curvature (C): Medium Trucks
v
55
45 -
40 K0 4I
35 ~~~~~~~~~-------…-
10
305 __-c ---
25
20
a 200 400 5000 BOO 1000 1200
Vehicle Speed (V) versus Roughness (R): Medium Trucks
V
55-
50 -
40N
;5.B (paved)
30 B (unpaved)
25
20
15
10
o-
a a ..... .... ,,,,,,R,Bs
0 2000 4000 .000 8000 10000 12000
R, IRI
2.8 5.1 7.4 9.5 12.0 14.0
VEHICLE SPEEDS 95
Figure 4.9 shows predicted roughness effects. The Brazil study

model predicts the largestroughnesseffects, once roughnessexceeds around
4,000mm/km. The Kenyan model (drawn in Figure 4.13 for unpaved surfaces)
shows rather llttle sensitivity to roughness, speeds being predlcted to
Increaseby only 2 percent as surface roughness falls from 7,000mm/km to
4,000mm/kmon highwaysbuilt to good geometric design standards. For the
same roughness change the Indian study model predicts speed Increasesof
around 16 percent.
4.4.2 Heavy and ArticulatedTrucks
In the Kenyan study, heavy vehicles were combined with medium

trucks for the estimation of speed equations and only In the Brazillan
study is a separate model for the speeds of heavy and articulatedvehicles
estimated. The equation Is graphed for a three axle, 20 tonne rigid truck-
and a five axle, 40 tonne articulatedvehicle in Figures 4.10 and 4.11. In
calculatingpredictions these vehicles are taken to be fully laden at all
times, and this may result In predicted average speeds somewhat lower than
average speeds actually attained under normal operating conditions. The
power to weight ratios of these two vehicle types are similar, 4.8 and 5.3
km/tonne for the fully loaded 3 and 5 axle trucks respectively. The effect
of rise + fall on average speed Is graphed In Figure 4.10 and the two
vehicles show similar responses for average gradients greater than 30 m/km.
Large speed differencesare only present for gradlents up to 1 percent and
thereafterthe curves converge rapidly and Intersect when rise + fall
equals 70 m/km.
Figure 4.11 shows the effect of curvature on the predicted average

speeds of heavy vehicles. With the assumptions concerningsuperelevatlon
adopted throughoutthis and the subsequent chapter, the effects are very
small.
Figure 4.12 shows the effects of roughnesson predicted speeds for

both vehicle types on paved and unpaved highways. In fact, It Is uncommon
to find large articulatedvehicles running on rough unpaved routes. High
tire costs and the difficulties in achieving sufficienttraction severely
limit such operations and businesses plying rough unpaved routes will
typicallyuse smaller rigid vehicles. Only one company In the Brazillan
road user survey employed articulated vehicles extensively on unpaved
routes, but the highways Involved were owned by the company who made
substantial investmentsto ensure that the unpaved surfacedwere of high
quality.
In many countries, and Indeed in parts of Brazil, articulated

vehicle speeds are high on good quality routes, rather higher than the 50-
60 km/hr predicted by the model presented here.
4.5 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The results presented in the previous three sectlons suggest quite

substantlal differences in speeds and In speed responses to highway
conditions for the vehicles and drivers observed In the four studies. Some
96 VEHICLE SPEEDS
Figure 4.10: Vehicle Speod (V) versus Rise + Fall (RF):

Heavy and ArticulatedTrucks
v
55
50__
'S
45-'
45 B (heavy)
40 " 'S
B (Artic) ' '
35 -"S"
~
S.~
S ''
25 S*
.,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.~
20
35-
n-T,---
f....----- ... - -,r, - RF
a 20 30 40 - so so 70 so go
Ecuationm B(Atic) 2Brazil, articulated truck. unpaved road.

BtHeavyl = Brazil, heavy truck. unpaved ra
YAM:s V = Speed (krn/h)

RF = Ris plus Fall tm/km)
C = Curvatur (0/kmn)
R = Roughness, Bl (mm/km), IRI tm/km)
Vanotbi FlotbdM C = Curvature = 50°/km

R = Roughness= 5500 Bl tmm/km), 6.8 IRI tmJkm)
ALT = Altitude = o
CVW = Gros Vehicle Weight = 20 tonnes Heavy,
40 tonnes Articulated
For other Brazillianspeed model Variables not plotted, see default values
In the Appendix to Chapter 4.
VEHICLE SPEEDS 97
Figure 4.11: Vehicle Speed (V) versus Curvature (C):

i -
B (heavy)
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___ _ _ -
B (Aret.O)
25-
20-
15-
10-
B~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
0 200 400 BOO SDO 1000 1200
Vehicle Speed (V) versus Roughness (R):

45
40-
- _
- N NNN N N~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~(~tc- aVd
is~~~~~~~~
N N N> B theavy- upaved)
NNBi cri - paved)

25-
B (Attic - urnpaveG)
20
10-
15-
0 2000 4000 05 8000o0000

aco 12000
2.&2. 5.1. 7
7.4 9.5
9.5 12.0 14.0 R, IRI
98 VEHICLE SPEEDS
of these differences may be due to the model forms employed. For example,
the Brazilian model ties roughness effects to gradient effects through the
specification of rolling resistance and it specifies distinctive non-linear
forms for the effects of highway conditions.
So far as speed levels are concerned, the Indian study predicts by

far the lowest speeds. The other three studles predict fairly similar
speed levels, with the Brazil study uniformly higher than the rest. Both
the Brazilian and the Kenyan models predict large effects for highway
curvature. The Kenyan curvature effects are obtained using data In which
only a narrow range of curvature was observed (O 0 /km - 200 0 /km) and it
would be unwise to extrapolate the Kenyan estimates to high levels of
curvature. The Brazilian data contain a much wider range of curvature but
the Brazilian model's predictions concerning curvature are very sensitive
to the specification of superelevation. In producing the graphs In the
last three sections we have used the default formulae recommended by
Watanatada et al. (1987) and this may be responsible for the noticeable
flattening out of the curvature effect once curvature exceeds about 300
0
/km. The sharpest response to curvature In the Brazillan model occurs In
the range 0 0 /km - 250 0 /km. This is not a transitional effect because the
model Is constructed to describe, and estimated using steady state, free
flow speed data.
The studies agree quite closely on the effects of gradient on

speeds. So far as roughness is concerned a variety of effects are
predicted, with the Brazilian model generally yielding the largest
responses.
Data collectlon methods were quite similar In all the studies and
while differences In model form may be partly responsible for the
differences in the results, It seems likely that there are other Important
contributory factors. One of these must be vehicle design. We have
described the sorts of vehicles observed durlng the studies and features of
thelr designs In Chapter 3, which opened Part II. The low power to weight
ratio of typical Indian vehicles relative to those found In the other
studies must be partly responsible for the low speeds found In India.
Perhaps differences In vehicle designs are responsible for some of the
differences In responses to highway conditions, but there Is little hard
Informatlon to help us here.
One factor that may be responsible Is differences In prices. Fuel

was relatively expensive In India, which would lead Indian firms to
schedule vehicles to travel closer to fuel cost minimising speeds and might
lead to overloading which would further encourage fuel conservation. The
results reported In the next chapter show that Indian vehicles have an
unusually pronounced U-shaped fuel consumption-vehicle speed relationship,
bottoming out at rather low speeds. The penaltles for departing from fuel
cost minimising speeds are larger for Indian vehicles than for any of the
vehicles observed In the other studies.
It Is notable that only one of the studies (Brazil) attempts to

model vehicle speeds In terms of vehicle characterIstics and that none of
the studies model the influence of fuel, vehicle, and other prices. As we
will see In Part lii, this complicates the task of transferrlng the
VEHICLE SPEEDS 99
studies' relationships to new environments. The Brazilian model does

incorporate a behavioural assumption, but it Is an implausible one - namely
that firms schedule vehicles to maximise speed. If cost components
expressed per unit of output (e.g., per kilometer) like fuel and tire costs
rise as vehicles approach maximum allowable velocities then It will be
optimal to travel at speeds below maximum allowable velocities to an extent
that depends on the relative prices of cost components and the value of
time, which, for commercial transport firms, enters largely through
Interest and depreciatlon costs, I.e., vehicle purchase and replacement
costs.
The full force of the speed maximisation assumption is lessened by

the Inclusion In the Brazilian model of a limiting velocity "maximum
desired speed," VDE, which reflects maximum speeds for unimpeded traffic on
good quality routes. However, as the discussion of Section 4.1 makes
clear, VDE only has a small impact on speeds when speeds are largely
constrained by other maximum allowable velocities. Thus, the level of VDE
Is not Influential in determining speeds on poor quality routes, but It Is
on such routes that cost considerations and the Influence of prices may be
most Important.
It Is tempting to use VDE to calibrate the Brazilian model for new

environments but great care should be taken If this approach is adopted,
for the following reason. Reducing or Increasing VDE will have substantial
Impact on predicted speeds on good quality routes, but only a small Impact
on predicted speeds on poor quality routes. In a typical highway
investment appraisal, one wishes to compare predicted speeds before and
after an Improvement and by adjusting VDE this speed difference can be made
large or small at will.
Users should take care to ensure that any speed model chosen from
those reported here Is appropriate for the environment In which they are
working. Even In the case of the relatively flexible Brazil study model
caution Is required. Though the user can adjust certain vehicle
characteristics many features of vehicle and engine design are not
considered In the model and no attentlon Is paid to the Influence of prices
and costs. One potentially important cost is fuel cost. It Is to the
studies' results concerning fuel costs that we turn In the next chapter.
100 VEHICLE SPEEDS
APPENDIX. VEHICLE SPEED EQUATIONS
A4.1 Kenya
Hide et al. (1975) report separate equations for paved and unpaved
road surfaces. Notation Is as follows:
V - vehicle speed (km/hr)

RS - rise (m/km)
FL - fall (m/km)
C - curvature (0/km)
A - altitude (m)
R - surface roughness (mm/km)
M - moisture content (%)
RD - rut depth (mm)
L - depth of loose material (mm)
W- pavement width (m).
The equations are given below. Figures In parentheses are ratios of

coefficients to standard errors.
Cars, paved roads
V - 102.6 - .372RS - .076FL - .111C - .0049A

(-20.3) (-4.1) (-14.5) (-7.8)
R2 . .73, S - 6.57, 468 observations.
Cars, unpaved roads
V - 84.2 - .21ORS - .070FL - .118C - .00089 R - .13M - .19RD

(-9.53) (-3.1) (-17.6) (-7.4) (-1.3) (-6.2)
R2 _ .67, S - 5.23, 307 observatlons.
Light goods vehicles, paved roads
V - 86.9 - .418RS - .050FL - .074C - .0028A

(-26.7) (-3.1) (-11.3) (-5.1)
R2 _ .77, S - 5.50, 453 observations.
Light goods vehicles, unpaved roads
V - 81.2 - .317RS - .059FL - .097C - .00095R - .29M - .20RD

(-15.6) (-2.9) (-15.5) (-8.7) (-3.0) (-6.8)
R2 _ .72, S - 4.96, 327 observations.

VEHICLE SPEEDS 101
Medium and heavy goods vehicles, paved roads
V - 68.1 - .519RS + .030FL - .058C - .0004A

(-33.2) (2.0) (-9.0) (-0.8)
R2 _ .83, S - 5.35, 453 observations.
Medlum and heavy goods vehicles, unpaved roads
V - 69.3 - .433RS + .004FL - .061C - .00060R - .22M - .27RD

(-19.9) (.20) (-8.9) (-5.5) (-2.4) (-9.2)
R2 _ .75, S - 5.03, 309 observations.
Buses, paved roads
V - 72.5 - .526RS + .067FL - .066C - .0042A

(-17.1) (2.2) (-5.0) (-4.2)
R2 _ .55, S - 11.08, 532 observations.
Buses, unpaved roads
V - 62.6 - .492RS + .01OFL - .046C - .00036R - .16M - .09RD

(-12.6) (0.3) (-3.6) (-1.8) (-1.0) (-1.8)
R- _ .42, S - 9.46, 355 observations.
Approximate Means and Ranges of Explanatory Variables
Paved Unpaved
Variable Min Max Mean Min Max Mean
RS(m/km) 0 86 14 0 55 13
FL(m/km) 0 86 15 0 55 13
C(0 /km) 0 157 47 0 198 45
A(m) 180 2,300 1,282
R(mm/km) 2,200 20,600 5,984
M(M) 0 25 3
RD(mm) 0 67 19
L(mm) 0 13 1
Hide et al. (1975) report correction factors to be added to predicted

speeds for use on roads less than 5m wide, as follows.
102 VEHICLE SPEEDS
Adjustments for Road Width Less Than 5m.

Add Terms below to Predicted Speeds
Vehicle Class Paved Unpaved
Cars and light goods -max (7.31(5-W),O) -max (4.32(5-W),O)
Buses and medium and heavy goods -max (3.29(5-W),O) -max (6.36(5-W),O)
Remarks
Vehicle speeds were sampled at 95 1-kilometer long test sections,

49 of which were paved, 42 gravel and 4 earth. Vehicles' Journey times
were recorded using two observers with synchronized stopwatches who
recorded registration numbers and times at which vehicles passed. Journey
times were converted to space mean speeds for analysis. Observation
continued at test sections until adequate numbers of vehicles had been
recorded. None of the test sections experienced traffic flows exceeding
1,500 vehicles per day and the majority carried 150 vehicles per day or
less. The data were apparently averaged prior to analysis but each
section-direction produces more than one average. The numbers of
observations producing each average are not reported. The equatlons are
obtained by ordinary least squares. No effect was found for surface type
on paved roads nor could effects for road width on paved or unpaved roads
or for surface roughness on paved roads be obtained. Adjustments to apply
to roads narrower than 5 meters are given, obtained from earlier work In
Kenya (Abaynayaka et al. 1974).
A4.2 Caribbean
The equations reported In Morosluk and Abaynayaka (1982) for roads

of all widths are shown below. Symbols are as In A4.1 and additionally:
PW - Power to gross vehicle weight ratio (bhp/tonne).
Passenger cars
V - 67.6 - 0.078RS - 0.067FL - 0.024C - 0.00087R

(45.1) (-4.6) (-3.8) (-10.3) (-4.4)
R2 _ 0.90, 56 averages from 20,523 vehicles.
Light goods vehicles
V - 62.6 - 0.085RS - 0.067FL - 0.022C - 0.00066R

(47.8) (-6.1) (-4.4) (-11.1) (-4.3)
R2 - 0.91, 56 averages from 13,713 vehicles.

VEHICLE SPEEDS 103
Trucks
V - 51.9 - 0.222RS - 0.122FL - 0.017C - 0.00106R + 0.559PW

(92.0) (-37.3) (-20.2) (-20.4) (-12.3) (20.0)
R2 _ 0.49, 4,812 data points.
Variable Min Max Mean
RS(m/km) 0 110.8 53.3

FL(m/km) 0 110.8 53.3
C (0 /km) 0 1,099 395
R (mm/km) 1,329 12,928 4,612
PW (bhp/tonne) 6.5 20 15.9
Source: Morosiuk and Abaynayaka (1982).
Morosluk and Abaynayaka (1982) report correction factors for use on roads
less than 5 meters wide as follows:
Cars Add: -8.1 max (5-W,0)
Light Vehicles Add: -7.0 max (5-W,0)
Trucks Add: -6.2 max (5-W,0).
Remarks
Data were collected using similar procedures to those used in the

Kenyan study reported above. Additionally trucks' weights were measured In
axle load surveys carried out a few kilometers away from test sections.
The truck speed equation is obtained by ordinary least squares applied to
individual truck speeds, the car and light vehicle equations by weighted
least squares applied to averages taken by test section. All test sections
are paved and no roughness effects are reported. The R2 statistic is lower
for the truck speed equation than for the car or light goods vehicle
equations. Presumably this reflects the use of averages In fitting the
latter equations - the discussion In Chapter 6 Is relevant.
A4.3 Brazil
The Brazilian study reports equations obtained using roadside

speed data and user survey data. The model estimated using roadside speed
data Is presented first.
104 VEHICLE SPEEDS
A4.3.1 Brazil: model estimated using roadside speed data
The vehicle speed model estimated in the Brazilian study Is rather

different In character from that estimated in the Kenyan, Caribbean, and
Indlan studies. In this subsection the data and the estimation procedure
employed are briefly described. For further details the reader Is referred
to Watanatada et al. (1987).
Vehicle speeds were obtained from around 200 road sections using
radar speedometers. In all around 100,000 observations were obtained but
observations made with radar exposed were deleted. The speed model fitted
uses the concept of "steady state speed" which Is the speed that a vehicle
would eventually attain on a long road section which has the same
characteristics (curvature, gradient, roughness, etc.) as the relatively
short test sections on which observations were taken. Before estimatlon
spot speeds were plotted against distance, each observation station (3-5
per section) contrlbuting a point to the graph. Data on vehicles that did
not appear to have attalned steady state speed were eliminated. For the
purposes of estimation speed observations were averaged, after taking
logarithms, by vehicle class and, for trucks, by load state (which was
estimated visually).
As explalned In the main text, the vehicle speed model estimated

in the Brazilian study Is constructed using the Idea of constraining
velocities, one associated with each of a number of highway features. In
particular gradients, curvature, and roughness are Isolated for attention.
Associated with a given gradient and vehicle driving power is a speed (VDR)
which would be attained on such a grade were the road stralght and smooth.
Similarly associated with a given grade and vehicle braking capacity there
Is a speed (VBR) attained as a steady state velocity by a vehicle on such a
grade on a smooth straight road of Indefinite length. Of course these
constraining velocities, VDR and VBR are vehicle class specific as Is VC,
the constralning velocity associated with a curve, defined as the speed
attained by a vehicle on a flat smooth road of Indefinite length with
curvature equal to that of the curve of Interest. VR defines a
constraining velocity associated with roughness, attained by vehicles on
straight flat roads of given roughness. The final constraining velocity Is
denoted by VDE which is to be Interpreted as "maximum desired speed." This
Is meant to represent the maximum speed at which a vehicle of given class
(car, bus, truck) would travel on a flat, straight, smooth road of
Indefinite length. In the report on the Brazilian speed model these
constraining velocitles are referred to as "maximum allowable speeds" and
their relatlonships to gradient, curvature, roughness, and vehicle
characteristics are obtained by examining the maximum performance
attainable from a vehicle as determined by Its engine power, capability for
braking, skid resistance, and so forth. The constraining velocities
(except VDE) are Intended to represent speeds attainable when vehicles are
pushed to their limits.
In practice, a road section of Interest will have combinations of

gradient, curvature, and roughness. The speed attained on such a road Is
defined In the model as the minimum of VDE and the constraining velocities
associated with each of the highway features. The Idea Is that drivers
drive as fast as their vehicles will allow, within the constraint Imposed
by VDE-
VEHICLE SPEEDS 105
In practice, speeds of Identical vehicles on the same stretch of

road can differ and In order to model speeds the constraining velocitles
are regarded as random variables wlth average values referred to In the
maln text as VDR, VBR, VC, VR, and VDE. In Watanatada et al. (1987) these
averages are denoted respectively VDRIVE, VBRAKE, VCURVE, VROUGH, and
VDESIR. They are written as functions of vehicle and highway
characteristics, as follows:
(a) VDRIVE
VDRIVE - (HG + HA)1 /3 - (HG - HA)1 /3 , HG real
- MAX (v1, v2 , v3 ) HG complex
where: HG - (HA2 + (MG/3 AIR)3 )1 /2
MG - 1000 (GVW)(g)(CR + GR)
AIR - 0.5 (RHO)(CD)(AR)
HA - 736 HPDRIVE/(2 AIR)
v, - Rcos(z)
v2 - Rcos(z+211/3)
v3 _ Rcos(z+411/3)
R - 2( -MG/3AIR)1 /2
z - (1/3) arc cos (-2HA/(R MG/3AIR))
and: HPDRIVE - maximum used driving power (metric hp)
GVW - gross vehicle weight (tonnes)
- TARE (tare weight, tonnes)
+ LOAD (payload, tonnes)
g - gravitational constant - 9.81 m/s2
GR - signed vertical gradient (fraction)
CR ^ coefficient of rolling resistance (dimensionless)
- .0218 + .0000467QI for cars and utilities
- .0139 + .0000198QI for buses and trucks

106 VEHICLE SPEEDS
Table A4.1: Parameter Estimates and Default Settings for Brazilian

Speed Model
Vehicle [ c Lrear Utility Bus Light Trucks Trucks

Small lwlediumt Large Large gas [diesel Medium Hvy Articulated
Parameters m A
Drag coefficient, CO 0.45 0.S0 0.45 0,46 0.65 0.70 0.70 0.85 | 0.85 0.63
Frontal area, AR(m2 ) 1.80 2.06 2.20 2. 72 6.30 3.25 3.25 5.20 5.20 5,75
TARE (tonnes) 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.3 8.1 3.1 3.3 5.4 6.6 14.7
LOAD (tonnes) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.8 3.4 3.0 2.8 9.6 11.9 25.3
_ _____-_ __________' _ _. _ . ..
HPDRIVE (metric hp) 30.0 70.0 85.0 40.0 100.0 80.0 60,0 100.0 100.0 210.0
HPBRAKE (metric hp) 17.0 21.0 27.0 30.0 160.0 100.04 100.0 250.0 250.0 500.0
FRAnoo (tonne-1 ) t
Paved roads 0.268 0.268 0.268 0.221 0.233 0.253 0.253 1 0.22 0.292 0.170
Unpaved roads 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.117 0.095 0.099 0.099 0.067 0.087 0,040
1
FRATIO1 (tonne' ) , I
Paved roads 0 0 0 0 0 0.0128 0.0128 10.0094 0.0093 0.0023
._____
Unpaved roads
__ ____ ____ ___ __
AMVMAX(mm/s)
ARMA (kmm's)
____
0
259.7
. .__
0
259.7 259.7
0
s______________________.
....
___
239.7
96.'3949
0
_ _ _ _ _.
0
_ _ _ _ _ _
212.8
0
_
194.0
O
_______
194.0
0
......... _.__ ...__
177.7
__ __ __
0
177.7
0
130.9
-
-I......
...........
VOESIRO(km/h)
Paved roads 98.3 98.3 1 98.3 94.9 93.4 81.6 88.8 88.8 84.1
Unpaved roads 82.2 82.2 82.2 76.3 68.4 71.9 71.9 72.1 72.1 49.6
3w (km(h/m)
Paved roads 7.31 7.31 7.31 7.31 3.29 3.29 ! 3.29 3.29 3.29 3.29
Unpaved roads 4.32 4.32 4.32 4.32 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36
1 13 0.274 0.274 0.274 0.306 0.273 0.304 1 0.304 0.310 0.310 0.244
I a2 0.0289 0,0289 0.0289 0,0436 0.0524 0.05 62 0.0627| 0.0627 0.0724
Source: Watanatada et al. (1987).

VEHICLE SPEEDS 107
Where Ql - road roughness (Ql* units)

RHO - mass density of air (kg/m3 )
- 1.225 (1-2.26 A 10-5)4.225
where A - altitude (meters)
CD - aerodynamic drag coefficient of vehicle
(dimensionless).
AR - projected frontal area of vehicle (m2 ).
Of the elements making up VDRIVE, only HPDRIVE was estimated, the

remaining elements being specified prior to estimation. To aid users
default values for CD, AR, LOAD, TARE are given in Table A4.1 below.
HPDRIVE as estimated is also given there.
(b) VBRAKE
VBRAKE - 0 if CR - RF/1000 > 0
- -736 HPBRAKE / 1000 GVW g(CR+GR), otherwise
where: HPBRAKE - maximum used braking power (metric h.p.).
Of the elements making up VBRAKE, HPBRAKE is the only one

estimated from the data, the remaining elements being specified prior to
estimation. Estimates of HPBRAKE are given in Table A4.1.
(c) VCURVE
VCURVE - (RC(FRATIO + 0.01 Sp)g)1/2
where RC - 180,000(r max (18/lI,C))
C - horizontal curvature in degrees per km
II - 3.14159
SP - superelevation C%)
2
g - 9.81 (m/s )
FRATIO - maximum "perceived" friction ratio (dimensionless).
- max (0.02, FRATIO0 - (FRATiO1 )(LOAD)).
The parameters FRATIOO and FRATIO1 are estimated from the data and
estimates are given In Table A4.1. Details of the vehicle used In the
Brazil study can be found In Table A4.2. For cases in which superelevatIon
is not known Watanatada et al. (1987) give the following formula relating
superelevatlon to curvature:
SP - .012C (paved roads)
- .017C (unpaved roads).

108 VEHICLE SPEEDS
Users are warned that this formula Is derived from data on

Brazilian roads and may not apply generally. Alternative assumptions can
lead to large changes in predicted curvature effects.
(d) VROUGH
VROUGH - ARVMAX/(.0882 Ql)
where: ARVMAX - "maximum allowable" average rectified velocity of

suspension motion of the standard Opala-Maysmeter
vehicle.
QI - surface roughness (Ql* units).
The parameter ARVMAX Is estimated and reported in Table A4.1.
(e) VDESIR
VDESIR is an estimated parameter, reported In Table A4.1. For

roads narrower than 5m, VDESIR should be replaced by [VDESIR - Bw W']/3.6
where W' Is 5.0 minus actual road width and Bw Is given In Table A4.1.
Some parameters entering VDRIVE, VCURVE, and so forth, like AR

(proJected frontal area) and CD (aerodynamic drag coefficient) were not
measured during roadside speed observation and were assigned to vehicle
classes using Information on typical Brazilian vehicles. Other parameters
not obtained during roadside speed observation (HPDRIVE, HPBRAKE, FRATIO,
ARVMAX, and VDESIR) were estimated using the speed data.
A relationship between expected attained speed (denoted V In the

main text) and the expected values of the constraining velocities whose
formulae are given above Is obtained by assuming that the constraining
velocities have Independent Welbull distributions with common shape
parameter denoted P. This leads to a model In which speeds attained by
vehicles have Welbull distributions with location parameters given as
functions of VDRIVE, VBRAKE, etc., expressions for which are given above.
A Weibull regression model had been developed earlier in the Brazillan
study (Chesher 1982) to analyze pavement deterioration data. There, In the
analysis of time to pavement failure, data were censored and parameters
were estimated by maximum likelihood. The vehicle speed data were not
censored so parameters could be estimated at lower cost, using non-linear
least squares (Chesher 1982). It turns out that this was a good choice,
because prior to estimation the logarithms of vehicle speed data were
averaged by vehicle class and road section. Since averaging alters the
distribution of the data (inducing normality), maximum likelihood
estimates, had they been calculated assuming data distributed according to
a Welbull distribution, would have been Inconsistent, the effect on
estimates of the shape parameter P being particularly severe. However, the
regression function for log speeds Is unaffected by averaging so non-linear
least squares applied to the log speed data can produce consistent
estimates.
VEHICLE SPEEDS 109
Estimates of HPDRIVE, HPBRAKE, etc., are given in Table A4.1

together with estimates of the Welbull shape parameter (,O)and of the
across section residual variance of log vehicle speeds (a2 ). To compute
predicted speed (in meters per second) for a homogeneous road section one
calculates:
exp (a2 /2)

V-
I(VDRIVE)1l/P+(VBRAKE)1/P+(VCURVE)1 '+(VROUGH) '/P + (VDESIR) l0iP
The term exp (U2 /2) Is Introduced to correct for bias Induced by
exponentiating predictions of log (speed) (see Chapter 3), the non-linear
least squares estimation being performed using average log (speed) as
dependent variables.
The model described above was estimated using data obtained on

relatively short homogeneous sections of highway for vehicles believed to
be travelling at speeds close to constraining velocities. In applications
in which speeds are predicted on long routes the speed model should Ideally
be used to predict speeds over homogeneous sections, account being taken of
section lengths and of the possibility that vehicles do not attain steady
state speeds. In practice this requires a detailed description of
configurations of bends, gradients, and surface condition which may not be
available to the highway planner at the time at which an investment
appraisal Is performed.
In situations in which detailed Information on highway

characteristics Is not available Watanatada et al. (1987) recommend
regarding a long route with variable highway characteristics along Its
length as composed of two subroutes, one rising, one failling,each with
highway conditions constant along its length. On both of these subroutes
curvature, roughness and superelevation are constant and equal to their
distance weighted averages over the original non-homogeneous route. On the
rising subroute gradient is set equal to + RF/1000 (RF - rise + fall, m/km)
and on the failing subroute to - RF/1000 where RF is the distance weighted
average of rise + fall for the non-homogeneous route. Thus, a route which
is flat and straight for half its length and hilly and winding for the
remainder Is to be regarded as two routes, each with half the length of the
original, one rising, one falling, each with constant gradient, roughness
and superelevation, each following a curve throughout Its length given by
the distance weighted average of curvature of the route of interest.
Taking the harmonic mean of the two speed predictions that result (VU and
VD) and multiplying by 3.6 to convert to kilometers per hour the predlcted
route speed:
1
V - 3.6/(0.5(V- + V-1))
u D
Is obtained.
110 VEHICLE SPEEDS
A4.3.2 Brazil: equations estimated from user survey data
The Brazilian study reports two equations obtained using user

survey data (GEIPOT 1981). Notation is as follows:
Ql - surface roughness (Qi Index)
RF - average rise + fall (m/km)
ADC - average degrees of curvature (0 /km)
T - 0 if one round trip per day
- 1 If two round trips per day
D - one way route distance (km).
Passenger cars
V - 66.19 - .270RF - .192QI + 7.26T + .068D

(-2.01) (-7.83) (3.41) (6.20)
R2 _ .65, S - 7.19, 91 routes, 4 companies.
Buses
V - 64.07 - .1457QI - .0616ADC + .0182D

(-7.07) (-3.79) (5.12)
R2 - .66, S - 6.19, 52 routes, 12 companies.
Cars Buses
Variable Min Max Mean Min Max Mean
Ql (Ql Index) 21 191 55 24 197 74

RF(mIkm) 15 44 31
ADC(°/km) 7 189 41
T(0-1 trip dummy) 0 1 .67
D (km) 17 482 193 44 705 228

VEHICLE SPEEDS 111
Table A4.2: SpecIfication of Vehicles for Brazilian Speed and Fuel Model
Engine
Approx.j
1Approx. rated Maximum
tare gross Weight No of SAE
weight weight Classini- No of Heavy Fuel3 I rated power No. of Representative
1 2
Vehicle type (tonms) (tonnes) cation tires Axles Type IMetric hp cylinders Vehicle
4
Brazil .
Passenger car 1.0 1.2 L 4 0 G 49 4 VW 1300

(small) ___ _____ ______. 4
Pasenger car 1.2 1.5 L 4 0 148 6 Opala

(medium) _ _ _ I
Passenger cars 1.7 1.9 L |4 G 201 8 Dodge Dart
(large)
Utilities 1.3 2.1 L 4 0 G 61 4 VW Kombi

____ _ ~-T ---- ~-1---~-i--------t---t __--- -
LargeBuses 8.1 11.5 H 6 2 D 149 6 Merc.Benz 0362
_ . _. ... . .. .... ,_-_------- - --.-- --- . t -'
Light trucks 3.1 6.1 H 6 2 aG 171 8 Ford-40O
(gasoline) I _.'__1.__[._.
Light truclss 3.3 6.1 H 6 2 D 103 4 Ford-4000

(diesel) -
Medium Trucks 5.4 15.0 H 1 6 2 D i 149 6 Merc.Benz 11135.
Heavy Trucks 6.6 18.5 . H 10 3 D 149 6 Merc.Benz 11136.
Articulated 14.7 40.0 H 18 5 D 289 6 Scania 110t39

Trucks, I
Notes:
1. 1 = light vehicle [rated gross weight under 3.5 (metric) tonnes;

H heavy vehicle (rated gross weight of 3.5 tonnes or more)].
2. The number of heavy axles equals the number of axles of the vehicle if it is a heavy vehicle
andzero otherwise.
3. S = gasoline engine; D = diesel engine.
4. Tare weights of Brazil vehicles include 150 kg weight of two drivers.
5. Excludes third rear axle.
6. Includes third rear axle.

112 VEHICLE SPEEDS
Remarks
Data on car journey times were collected from four companies

engaged In collecting bank correspondence on a regular basis from bank
branch offices. Information concerning vehicle speeds on 91 routes was
obtained from timetables and, In the few cases where timetables were not
adhered to, from actual journey time records compiled In drIvers' log
sheets. Unofficial stops were minimal since this type of business requires
strict control on the part of the company manager in order to ensure a
secure and reliable service. The equatlon for car speeds was estimated by
ordinary least squares.
Bus speed data were compiled from tachograph records of 52

vehicles. Forty-one of these observations were used in an exercise,
described In the main text and reprinted in Watanatada et al. (1987), to
assess the predictive accuracy of the Brazil speed model. Speed was
calculated as total round trip time less stops divided by total round trip
distance. The equation was estimated by ordinary least squares. For
reporting, the 01 coefficients have been adjusted to reflect the changes in
calculation of Ql subsequent to the car and bus speed analysis reported In
GEIPOT (1981). and the resulting coefficients have been converted so that
they apply to roughness measured In mm/km.
A4.4 India
The Indian study reports equations derived from roadside speed

data and equations derived from user survey data. We present the equations
based on roadside speed data first.
A4.4.1 India: roadside speed equatlons
The notation used In the Indian study is as follows:
RS - rise (m/km)
FL - fall (m/km)
CV - average degrees of curvature (0 /km)
RG - average surface roughness (mm/km)
W - road width (m).
Cars
V - 60.60 + 1.046W - .192RS - .184FL - .0078CV - .0036RG

(2.28) (-6.67) (-6.21) (-4.20) (-7.00)
76 averages obtained from 2,920 vehicle speeds.

VEHICLE SPEEDS 113
Buses
V - 54.97 + .609W - .301RS - .228FL - .0077CV - .0022RG

(1.35) (-10.27) (-7.03) (-3.81) (-6.67)
Trucks
V - 47.32 + 1.056W - .269RS - .265FL - .0099CV - .0019RG

(2.15) (-8.27) (-8.25) (-3.70) (-4.43)
Approximate Ranges and Means of Explanatory Variables
Variables Min Max Mean
W(m) 3.7 7.0 5.36

RS(m/km) 0 91.0 11.35
FL(m/km) 0 91.0 11.63
CV(0 /km) 1 1,243 274
RG(mm/km) 2,050 15,250 4,494
Remarks
The Indian study also reports a speed equation for 2 wheeled

vehicles - scooters and motorbikes - which Is as follows:
V - 47.19 + 0.941W - 0.12ORS - 0.067FL - 0.0048CV - .0021RG

(2.33) (-4.68) (-2.62) (-2.86) (-7.41)
Vehicle speeds were observed at 76 test sections. As In the

Kenyan and Caribbean studies roads with non-zero gradients generate two
test sections, one for each directlon. Speed measurements were made using
observers wlth stopwatches who recorded registration plates. On the
straighter sections a radar speedometer, hidden from drivers' view, was
used. Care was taken to measure free flow speeds and data obtained while
slow moving traffic were hinderlng other vehicles were discarded.
Individual speed data and site average speeds were subjected to analysis.
The results reported above are obtained by applying weighted least squares
to site averages, weightIng observations by (SD/n)- 1 where SD Is the
114 VEHICLE SPEEDS
estimated standard derivation of speeds at sites and n is the number of

observations taken at a site. This has the effect of giving more weight to
speed averages at sites where more observations are available and where
speeds are less variable. Unfortunately the R2 statistics reported In CRRI
(1982) are obtained from the weighted regression and do not give a good
indication of the power of the equations in explalning speed variations.
Ordinary least squares estimation with individual vehicle speed data gave
R2 statistics varying from 0.18 (two-wheelers) to 0.59 (buses). The
Interpretation to be given to reported estimates of disturbance standard
deviations (S) In CRRI (1982) Is unclear given the use of weighted least
squares. Values of S and R2 obtained In ordinary least squares applied to
site averages and to individual vehicle data are shown below.
OLS (Average OLS (Individual

Vehicle Class Vehicle Speeds) Vehicle Speeds)
R2 S R2 S
Cars .75 5.12 .48 11.5

Buses .81 5.16 .59 9.4
Trucks .73 5.49 .18 17.8
2-wheelers .65 4.26 .28 9.4
R2 statistics for the weighted least squares estimates will be

somewhat below those given above, but the resulting estimates are more
efficient. The majority of test sections are paved, and only 6 have
roughness exceeding 6,000 mm/km.
A4.4.2 India: user survey speed equations
Equatlons reported In CRRI (1982) were re-estimated by generalized

least squares allowing for company specific errors and reported In Chesher
(1983). As reported by CRRI, speed equations Included the ratio of
roughness to width as an explanatory variable, roughness and width being
excluded as main effects. In each of the equations reported below one of
roughness and width are excluded where muiticollinearity Is so severe as to
cause extreme Imprecision In estimates when both variables are Included.
Symbols are as In the previous subsection.
Cars
V - 58.66 - .0023RG - .399RF

(-2.67) (-3.61)
Su - 2.63 Sw - 2.64.
54 vehicles, 10 companies.
VEHICLE SPEEDS 115
Buses
V - 30.56 - .00064RG - .315RF + 2.29W

(-3.61) (-12.62) (8.70)
Su - 1.00 Sw - 4.11.
Trucks
V - 31.36 - .307RF - 1.48W

(-5.11) (2.39)
Su - 5.16 Sw - 3.00
232 vehicles, 30 companies
Approximate Mean and Ranges of Explanatory Variables
Cars Buses Trucks
Variables Min Max Mean Mln Max Mean Mln Max Mean
RG(mm/km) 3,416 6,955 4,987 2,925 12,072 5,953 2,960 15,550 5,331
RF(m/km) 3 36 10 1 50 15 1 58 13
W(m) 4.7 7.0 6.2 3.7 7.2 5.2 3.8 7.0 6.0
Source: Chesher (1983).
Remarks
Speed data were obtained from timetables and operators' schedules

and It Is noteworthy that there is substantial across company variation In
speeds (large Su) which, In the case of trucks, is substantially greater
than the within company speed variation. Multicoilinearity is too severe
to allow precise estimates of the separate effects of rise + fall, width,
curvature, and roughness to be estimated and the equations reported above
should be regarded as providing Indications of the magnitudes of speed
responses In transport operations under normal Indian traffic conditions.
I I
CHAPTER5
Fuel and Lubricant Costs
Fuel costs are an important component of vehicle operating costs.

For some vehicle classes, in some countries, they make up more than 50
percent of costs per unit output. It is a relatively simple matter to
measure fuel consumption accurately and fuel costs are an obvious candidate
for study using experimentation. In each of the four country studies
substantlal proportions of the study budgets were devoted to collecting
fuel consumption data, most of the data being obtained from experiments
performed using specially purchased fleets of test vehicles. Additionally,
fuel and lubricant consumption data were collected from vehicles
participatIng In road user surveys.
The models developed from the fuel experiment data write fuel
consumption as a function of vehicle speed, vehicle characteristics and
highway characteristics - gradient, and In some models roughness, but not
curvature, except to the extent that curvature affects speed. In the model
used in the Brazilian study, fuel consumption Is expressed as a function of
used vehicle power which Is, In turn, predicted as a function of vehicle
speed and highway and vehicle characterlstics. The models are described In
Section 5.1.
Since fuel consumption experiments are conducted under rather

artificial conditions, some care needs to be taken In using their results
to predict fuel consumption under normal operating conditions. The
vehicles used In fuel experiments were new vehicles representative of the
types of vehicles found In the study areas, but maintained to high
standards. Further, they were driven so as to produce high quality data
under controlled conditions, in a way rather different from that found in
commercial operations. All the equations reported later that derived from
fuel experiment data are based on records of fuel consumption at constant
speeds under free flow conditions over short road sections, along which
highway conditions varled negligibly. In commercial operations, one can
expect to find fuel costs rather higher than those predicted by the
studies' experiment based fuel equations and all the studies report
adjustment factors to raise predictions to the sorts of levels likely to be
encountered In practIce. The Kenyan and Caribbean studies report
relatively small adjustments but these are apparently Intended to allow
only for the Increases In fuel costs that arise because of speed changes,
whose effect Is not modelled In the studies' experiment based fuel
equations. The adjustments recommended by the Brazilian and Indian studies
are larger and were obtained by comparing experIment based fuel predictions
with fuel consumptions obtained from user survey vehicles.
Estimates of relationships between fuel consumption and vehicle

speed and highway characteristics are presented and compared In Sections
117
118 FUEL AND LUBRICANT COSTS
5.2 and 5.3. An appendix provides tables showing predictions of fuel

consumption and associated speed predictions for combinations of highway
roughness, vertical and horizontal geometry. Section 5.4 provides some
perspective on the results. Finally, Section 5.5 deals with consumption of
lubricants. In the next section the models applied to the fuel consumption
data are described.
5.1 FUEL CONSUMPTION

MODELS
Three distinct approaches were taken to modelling fuel consumption

in the four studies. The models applied to fuel experiment data in the
Indian, Kenyan, and Caribbean studies relate fuel consumption directly to
vehicle speed and highway characteristics, exploiting functional forms
avaliable In the late 1960s (see particularly Everall, 1968). They do not
take explicit account of vehicle characteristics, estimating separate
models for each vehicle type used In the experiments. The Brazil study
model fitted to experimental data Is more ambitious and was constructed
with the intention of allowing users to modify the model so that It could
be used to predict fuel consumption for vehicle types not observed during
the fuel experiments. Additionally, In the Indian and Brazilian studies,
simple linear models were fitted to user survey fuel consumption data,
relating fuel consumption directly to highways' and, In some cases,
vehicles' characteristics. These user survey data relate to fuel costs
Incurred over many hundreds of thousands of kilometers of travel and are
particularly Interesting because they are informative about the fuel costs
actually experienced by firms In the course of their business operations.
Slnce fuel experiments are, by their nature, rigidly controlled, there Is
no scope for observing behavioural and, In particular, economic responses
In the data they produce.
All the models fitted to experimental data predict fuel

consumption as a function of vehicle speed. In the subsequent sections in
which results are reported and predictions presented, the speed models
described In the previous chapter are used to obtain the required speed
predictions. Thus disagreements amongst the studies concerning predicted
fuel consumption will reflect differences not only In the fuel-speed
models, but also in the speed-highway characteristics models. We can also
expect to see differences In predictions due to dlfferen_e In vehicle
types used In the four studies.
There Is considerable evidence suggesting that at constant speed,

on other than steep grades, the relationship between fuel consumption (per
unit distance) and vehicle speed is U-shaped, relatively high fuel
consumption occurring when speeds are relatively high or relatively low.
Claffey (1960) presents graphs In which this effect Is evident. See also
Sawhill and Firey (1960). As estimated, the fuel consumption models
reported below, have this U-shaped form. In the Indian, Caribbean, and
Kenyan studies an equation of the form:
2
(1) F - a + b/V +cV
FUEL AND LUBRICANTCOSTS 119
Is used, in which F is fuel consumptionper unit distance and V is vehicle

speed. This equation, originally used by Everall (1968) describes a U-
shaped curve (assumingb,c positive), fuel consumptionbeing at a minimum
1 /3.
when vehicle speed Is equal to (b/2c) In practice the coefficient "a"
Is written as a function of highway characteristicslike rise, fall, and
surface roughness,and of vehicle characteristicslike gross vehicle weight
and power to weight ratio. In the Kenyan and Indian study models the
coefficient "a" is linear in rise (m/km) and fall (m/km, expressed as a
positive rate of fall). In the Caribbean study "a" is linear in the
product of gross vehicle weight and rise, and quadratic In fall, fuel
consumption falling as fall increases and then rising as it increases
further. In the Kenyan, Indian, and Caribbean studies' models the effect
of changing highway characteristics is to shift vertically the U-shaped
fuel-speedrelationship.
There is some evidence to suggest that as gradient increasesthe

U-shaped fuel-speedrelationship is shifted verticallyand to the left, so
that fuel minimising speed reduces as gradient increases- see for example
the graphs in Claffey (1960). In analysis of the Kenyan study data
subsequent to Hide et al. (1975), the equation:
(2) F = exp(a + tV + 2
7V )
was fitted (Chesher 1977), the coefficients, a, O, and being written as

distinct linear functionsof rise and fall, a depending additionallyon
variables describingroad surface conditlon. This equation describes a U-
shaped fuel-speedrelationship (7 > 0), gradient fixed, fuel minimising
speed being given by (-P/27). Since this ratio is a functionof gradient,
fuel minimising speed alters with gradient, and the Kenyan data indicates
that it decreaseswith gradient on uphill sections. The equation gives
fuel consumption as a non-linear function of gradient for which there Is
also some support, both In the Kenyan data, and in the literatureon fuel
consumptionmodelling. Results obtained from the Kenyan study data using
equation (2) are given in Appendix A.
The Brazilian model too predicts fuel consumption (volume per unit
distance) as a U-shaped function of vehicle speed under certain highway
conditions, with fuel minimising vehicle speed varying as highway
characteristics alter. The Brazilian study model assumes that fuel
consumption per unit time period Is a polynomial (convex)function of used
vehicle power and vehicle speed, the form of the relationshipbeing
determinedby reference to the fuel experiment data. These data give
Informationon vehicle speed, but not on used vehicle power so that the
latter has to be estimated. This Is done using Newton's force balance
equation for bodies not subject to acceleration(reflectingthe constant
speeds adopted In the fuel experiments)which relates used vehicle power to
vehicle speed, and vehicle and highway characteristicswhich are recorded
In the fuel experiment data. When the model is used to predict, vehicle
speed Is typically not known and It is predictedusing the model described
In the last chapter. As for the speed model, on heterogeneousroutes with
non-zero gradients, the model Is applied once for uphill travel and once
for downhill travel. Fuel consumption per unit distance Is predicted by
the distance weighted arithmeticmean of the two predictions that result.
Most of the development of the Brazil study model Is In terms of

fuel consumption per unit time period (UFC, ml/sec) which is written as a
function of vehicle horsepower delivered at the driving wheels (HP) and
engine speed (RPM). Horsepower delivered at the driving wheels Is written
as the product of vehicle speed (V) and drive force (DF), the latter being
related to vehicle and highway characteristics for constant speed travel
by:
(3) DF - mg GR + mg CR + p CD AR V2/2.
Here, m Is vehicle mass, g Is the gravitational constant (9.81m/sec2 ), GR

Is road gradient - positive or negative, as appropriate, CR is the
coefficient of rolling resistance (a vehicle class specific function of
road roughness), p Is the mass density of air, and CD and AR are
respectively an aerodynamic drag coefficient and the vehicle's projected
frontal area. In equation (3), which Is Newton's force balance equation
for bodies not subject to acceleration, the three right hand side terms
refer to, from left to right, gravitatlonal, roiling and air resistance.
In order to estimate the model values for vehicle weights,

projected frontal areas and aerodynamic drag coefficients were obtained by
measuring the vehicles purchased to take part In fuel consumption
experiments. In practice, in highway appraisal these vehicle
characteristics may not be known In which case It may be possible to use
default values provided by Watanatada et al. (1987) and reproduced in
Appendix A. These were obtained from study of the quite wide range of
vehicles used In the Brazil study fuel experiments but they should be used
with caution, and whenever possible values obtained in the environment In
which the appraisal Is being performed should be employed. Only the Brazil
study model allows this flexibility though Its predictive ability for
vehicle designs not studied durlng the Brazil study fuel experiments has
not been extensively studied and the possibility that model coefficients
may vary across vehicle types has to be borne In mind. Empirically derived
equations provided In Watanatada et al. (1987) enabling the coefficient of
rolilng resistance to be predicted as a function of road roughness are also
reported In Appendix A, one for cars and light goods vehicles, one for
buses, medium and heavy trucks.
During estimation of the Brazilian fuel consumption model, engine

speed (RPM) was estimated using the equation:
(4) RPM - 60 (V) (DRT) (GRT) / (TC)
where RPM - engine speed In revolutions per minute

V - vehicle speed (m/sec)
DRT - differential speed ratlo
GRT - gear speed ratio
TC - tire circumference (m).
FUEL AND LUBRICANT COSTS 121
In practice information on DRT, GRT, and TC Is unlikely to be

available and GRT depends on drivers choice of gears. In applications
Watanatada et al. (1987) recommended setting RPM to a value (CRPM In
Appendix A) varying across vehicle classes, but not varying with vehicle
speed or highway characteristics. Thus in using the model to predict fuel
consumption there is an Implicit assumption that engine speed is constant
with respect to changes In either vehicle speed or highway characteristics.
The Brazilian speed model, when estimated, produces an equation

not dissimilar to that specified by Everall (1968) and used in the other
three studies, fuel consumption being given (other variables fixed) by the
sum of a term proportional to the inverse of speed and a polynomial In
vehicle speed. It is interesting to note also that In the Brazilian speed
model gradient appears multiplied by gross vehicle weight, which Is the
form specified by Morosiuk (1983) in his analysis of the Caribbean study
data. The quadratic effect for gradient (speed fixed) Is similar to the
non-linear effect reported In Chesher (1977) for the Kenyan study data.
In the next three sections we employ the "aggregate" Brazil study

fuel prediction model which, like the "aggregate" speed model, is intended
for use on heterogeneous highways whose characteristics are recorded as
distance weighted averages of the varying characteristics along the
highway's length. As for the speed model, there are other versions of the
fuel consumption model for use when more detailed information Is available
and details can be found In Watanatada et al. (1987).
All the models described In this section were estimated using data
obtalned from vehicles travelling at constant speeds on relatively short
sections of road along which highway characteristics do not vary. To
predict fuel consumption over long routes along which highway
characteristics vary, one can apply the models using average measures of
hlghway characteristics and predictions of average vehicle speed. But then
care Is required because the non-linearity of the fuel consumption
equations implies that fuel consumption on a uniform route will not be
equal to fuel consumption on a non-uniform route with average highway
characteristics equal to the characteristics of the uniform route.
In practice some correction to fuel consumption predictions Is

required In order to allow for features of real-lIfe commercial operation.
All the studies report adjustment factors, reproduced here in Table 5.1.
In the next sections, In which fuel predictions are given in graphs and
tables, these adjustment factors are applied.
Further details concerning the Brazil study model are presented in

Appendix A, where all the studies' equations are given In the forms In
which they were originally derived. In the next three sections the results
are given for each vehicle class In turn. First, we consider the results
for cars and light goods vehicles.
5.2 FUEL CONSUMPTION EQUATIONS AND PREDICTIONS: CARS AND LIGHT

GOODS VEHICLES
The cars and light goods vehicles used In the fuel consumption
experiments differed quite substantially. Table 5.2 shows brief details of
their specification.
Table 5.1: AdJustment Factors to Convert Fuel Consumption Derived from

Constant Speed ExperImental Data to Fuel Consumption as
Experienced in Commercial Operation
Country VehicleClass MultiplyFuel

Consumption by
india(1 ) Cars 1.64

Buses 1.28
Trucks 1.31
Brazil(1) Cars and Light Goods 1.16

Busesand Trucks 1.15
Caribbeanand Cars and Light Goods 1.08

Kenya(2 ) Trucksand Buses 1.13
Note: These adjustments are used In producing graphs and tables of

predictions reported later.
(1) Obtained by comparing fuel model predictions with user survey fuel
consumption data.
(2) Obtalned from experiments into effects of speed change cycles on fuel
consumption.
Source: Hide et al. (1973), Morosluk and Abaynayaka (1982), GEIPOT (1981),
CRRI (1982).
Fuel consumption is Improved with the fitting of radial tires,

especially where these are steel belted. The Kenyan and Caribbean
experimental vehicles were equipped with radial tires although whether
these were steel belted is not reported. The Brazilian and Indlan vehicles
were fitted with conventional bias ply tires although the Indlan study does
report also the results of fuel consumption experiments carried out using
cars and auto rickshaws equipped with non-steel belted radial tires. Tire
choice can be expected to exert a significant influence on fuel consumption
and this complicates inter-study comparisons.
Fuel consumption equations as reported In the four studies are

given In Appendix A and summarized In Table 5.3. The relatively complex
Brazilian study equation does not appear In this table. All but one of the
equations In Table 5.3 are obtained from experimental data.
Comparing the car equations from the Indian, Caribbean, and Kenyan
studies, there Is, for all but two of the equations, quite close agreement
concerning the effect of gradient on fuel consumption, vehicle speed fixed.
The Indian study equation for the Premier Padmini records relatively small
gradient effects as does the Indlan study equation derived from survey data
but note that the vertical geometry coefficient In the latter equation
relates to rise + fall whereas In the equation derived from the fuel
experiments there are separate coefficlents for rise and fall.
Flgure 5.1 shows the relationships between fuel consumption and

vehicle speed for smooth, flat roads. There are marked differences in the
Table 5.2: Fuel ExperimentVehicle Fleets: Cars and Light Goods Vehicles
Country Vehicle Fuel Number Engine Engine Power Tire Fire Vehicle Vehicle Make
rype Cylinders Capacity (kw) Size ype Weight
(cc) (kg)
Kenya Car G 4 1598 53 at 50OOrpm 165 x 13 R 892 Ford Cortina Station Wagon
Caribbean Car G 4 1593 48 at 4r50rpm 165 x 13 R 1115 Ford Cortina Station Wagon1 .
Brazil Small Car G 4 32 at 4600rpm C 1200 Volkswagon 1300

Medium Car* Q 6 96 at 4000rpm C 1500 (.M. Chevrolet Opala
Large Car G 8 131 at 4400rpm C 1900 Chrysler Dodge Dart
India Small Car a 4 1089 35 at 480Orpm 5.20 x 14 C 1215 Premier Padmini

Medium Car* a 4 1489 31 at 4200rpm 5.90 x 15 C 1528 Ambassador
Kenya Light Goods a 6 2625 64 at 4500rpm 150 x 16 R 1105 Landrover

Vehicle
w Caribbean Light Goods G 4 1996 52 at 4500rpm 185 x 14 R 2600 Ford Iransit

Vehicle I.I
Brazil Utility* G 4 40 at 4600rpm C 2100 VolkswagenKombi

Light Goods G 8 111 at 4400rpm C 6100 Ford F400
Vehicle2 .
Light Goods D 4 67 at 3000rpm C 6100 Ford F4000
Vehicle2 .
India Light Goods 0 4 2350 28 at 2300rpm 6.00 x 16 C 1200 Mahindra Jeep

Vehicle
Notes: 1. This vehicle was fitted with an economy carburetter and was a later version of the Kenyan model.
2. These vehicles had dual tires on the rear axles.
3. *Indicates model selected for inter-study comparisons in graphs and tables.
4. R indicates radial tires fitted, C indicates conventional biasply tires fitted.
Table 5.3: Fuel Consumption (1000 km): Cars and Light Goods Vehicles
' i i ' ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Coefficients

Vehicle Country Type of Road i Vehide a._nap
|Class |t Study Surface ^ Make Fuel Intercept L. (V_ki_/h) Rise Fall Other Variables (1) Optimal
2
I1/V V (r/km) (m/km) Speed(2).
i | i _ i | | ._ {~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Cars India Experimental Mostly paved Ambassador Petrol 10.3 1676 .0133 1.39 -1.03 +0006R 40
i Cars 0 India Experimental Mostly paved Padmini Petrol 49.88 319 .0035 0.94 -0.68 +.0019R 36
Cars India Survey(3) Mostly paved AAmbassador Petrol -138.0 6213 i .0501 0.37 +.0034R 40
2
Cars |Caribbeany Experimental Paved Ford Cortina Petrol 24.3 969 .0076 1.33 -. 063 +00286FL 40
, Cars ' Kenya ' Experimental IPaved Ford Cortina Petrol 53.4 499 .0059 1.59 -0.85 35
j Cars Kenya Experimental Unpaved Ford Cortina Petrol 46.9 614 .0079 1.72 -1.07 +0.82L + 0.00113R 34
Light Goods I India Experimental I Mostly paved Mahindra Jeep Diesell 30.8 2258 i .0242 1.28 -0.56 +.0012R 36
2
Light Goods Caribbeani Experimental IPaved ;Ford Transit Petrol 72.2 949 .0048 2.34 -1.18 *.0067FL 46
v i i . , i t i ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~+1.12(GVW
- 2.11)Rt4
Light Goods Kenya Experimental Paved Landrover Petrol 74.7 1151 .0131 1 2.91 -1.28 35
Light Goods Kenya Experimental Unpaved Landrover Petrol 72.8 844 .0137 2.83 -1,31 +1.761 + .0011R 31
~~~~~s_ .. 1._ __ _ _ . 31___
Notes: Equations for vehicle speed are linear in explanatory variables with coefficients as given above.
(1) R = surface roughness (B9: mm/km)

FL = fall(/kin)
L = depth of loose material (mm)
GVW = gross vehicle weight (tonnes)
RS = rise (m/km).
(2) "Optimal speed" is speed at which predicted fuel consumption is minimized.
(3) Coefficient recorded in "rise" column is coefficient on rise plus tall (m/kin) (Survey only).
curves. The Indian Ambassador vehicle has a particularly U-shaped curve

with a fuel consumption minimising speed around 40 km/hr, rather higher
than that for the Indian Premler Padmini which has a relatively shallow U-
shape for Its fuel consumption-speed curve. The difference between the two
Ford Cortinas used in Kenya and the Caribbean is noticeable. The Caribbean
vehicle was fitted with an "economy" carburettor which gives lower fuel
consumption at all but the slowest speeds.
For the light goods vehicles and utilitles the gradient effects
are somewhat larger than those found for cars, the exception being the
Indian study Mahindra Jeep. Note that this is a diesel fuelled vehicle
unlike the Kenyan Land Rover and the Caribbean Ford Transit van. The
larger gradient effects found for these vehicles may In part reflect their
higher fuel consumption.
The light goods vehicles and utilities have fuel consumption-speed

relationships that differ quite substantially. Figure 5.2 shows the
relationships for smooth, flat routes. The diesel fuelled Indian Mahindra
Jeep, like the Indian Ambassador car, has a relatively U-shaped fuel
Figure 5.1: Car Fuel-Speed Equations
0
0 -
N
It 0
_ in
0
+3
0L
E
4 11_ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~n
C.,t3fl
- indJ t)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
vshiclQ spead km/hr

roughness-2000 mm/km. risa-fall-0 m/km
consumption-speed curve. The Ford Transit van studied In the Caribbean has
a particularly flat fuel consumption-speed curve.
Graphs of car fuel consumption predictions are shown in Figures

5.3 and 5.4. A striking feature of these graphs Is the relatively high
fuel consumption predicted for the Brazilian medium car, a 6-cylinder
Chevrolet Opala. Figure 5.3 shows the effect of gradient on fuel
consumption. The studies predict only moderate effects. The Brazilian
model shows almost no gradient effect for gradients less than 6 percent and
the Kenyan model's predictions are rather similar. The Caribbean model
predicts the largest effects. Figure 5.4 shows the effect of curvature on
fuel consumption. Note that curvature does not appear in any of the
constant speed fuel models obtained from experimental data so the effects
that are shown in Figure 5.4 are the result of speed adjustments. For all
but the Brazilian equation the curvature effects are very small but the
large Brazilian curvature effect is something of a puzzle since speed falls
markedly as curvature increases which might lead us to expect the sort of
Figure 5.2: Fuel-Speed Equations: Light Goods Vehicles
0
m
E
o0
oN
N
L L
aL -
jJ
4.) _. -
4- 0 20 4
0
0 20 40 60__12
vehicle spead km/hr

roughnQss=2000 mm/km. ris cfa1 1=0 m/km
Figure 5.3: Fuel Consumption (F) versus Rise + Fall (RF): Cars
275
B
250
200
175
150' …--------
I SD ~~~-------------------_-C ------------------
125_
75 _ __-
50
25
-
0 ......... ....................... RF
0 10 20 s0 40 50 60 70 80 90
Eou tions 3 = Brazil. G. M. Opala Sedan

I = India, Anbasador Sedan
K = Kenya, Ford Cortina Stationwagon
C = Caribbean, Ford Cortina Stationwagon.
UnJ§&: F Fuel Consumpton (t/1O3 km)

C = Curvature (0/kmn)
R = Roughness, Bl (mm/km). IRI (m/km)
Variables not Plotted: C = Curvature = 50C/Ikrn

R = Roughnes = 5500 31 (mm/km), 6.8 IRI (m/km)
L = Looseness (Kenya only) = 1 mm
ALT = Atitude (Brazil only) 0
GVW = Gross Vehicle Weight (Brazil only) = 1.4 tonnes
in the Appendix to Chapter 4.
Figure 5.4: Fuel Consumption (F) versus Curvature (C): Cars

F
30C _ -
250_
225 __-
200-
175-
150
125
100 K
-- I
75-
5n
25-
o SOCs *0 00 600 0 100
Fuel Consumption (F) versus Roughness (R): Cars

F
B (unpaved) ,,
272 -
B (paved)
220 --
200
175-
---------- -- -- - - -
100
1225
75-
50
252
000
2X ~~~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~,2
I. 5.1 7.- I. 12I 10R,IRI
2.8 5.1 7.4 9.5 12.0 14.0
small reduction In fuel consumption with Increasing curvature evident In

the Indian and Caribbean study equations predictions. The predicted
roughness effects are shown In Flgure 5.5. The Brazilian model predicts a
substantial Influence for roughness, unlike the other three models.
Figures 5.5 to 5.6 show graphs of predictions for the utilities

and light goods vehicies. Gradient effects are much larger for these
vehicles than for cars, once speed Is allowed to vary In accordance with
the speed models. As with cars, the Brazilian model predlcts higher fuel
consumptions than either the Kenyan or the Caribbean models. The Brazilian
fuel equation Is derived from data on gasoline fuelled Volkswagen Kombis
which may show higher fuel consumption. However, a part of the reason for
the high fuel consumptions predicted by the Brazilian model may be the
speed maximising assumption built into the Brazilian speed model. As for
cars the roughness effects predicted by the Brazilian model are a good deal
larger than those predlcted by the other models. Appendix C contains
tables of predicted car and utility fuel consumption and associated speed
predictions.
5.3 FUEL CONSUMPTION EQUATIONS AND PREDICTIONS: BUSES AND TRUCKS
Details of the buses and trucks used In fuel experiments In the

four studies are set out In Table 5.4. The technical specificationsof the
medium trucks used In the fuel experiments In the four country studies were
quite similar. All were two axle vehicles,of conventionaldesign, and
used non-turbochargeddiesel engines of around flve llters (80 - 96 kw) to
carry payloads between 4.5 and 7.6 tonnes. The test trucks In the
Brazilian study Includedtwo rigid, three axied heavy trucks (one with a
small hydraulic crane to load test vehicles with concrete blocks) and a
large articulated vehicle comprising a two-axle tractor and three-axle
semi-trailer.
In the Brazilian study a bus was Included In the experimentalfuel

fleet because many firms used monocoque or Integrallyconstructedbuses on
paved routes In Brazil and it was thought that the fuel consumptlonof
these vehicles might differ from that of conventionalfront engine chassis
buses. Large buses in Kenya and India were of the latter type which is
essentially a modificationof a medium truck design. The Kenyan and Indian
study teams believed that fuel consumptlondata from the medium truck would
form an adequate basis from which to predict bus fuel consumption.
Fuel consumptionequatlons as reported In the four studies are

given in Appendix A and summarized in Table 5.5. The relativelycomplex
Brazilian model Is omitted from Table 5.5 but details are given In
Appendix A. All but two of the equations In Table 5.5 are obtained from
experimentaldata.
Figure 5.7 shows the relationship between fuel consumptionand

vehicle speed on smooth, flat roads for the Caribbean,Kenyan, and Indian
vehicles. The Indian Tata, Caribbean Ford, and the Kenyan Bedford vehicles
have rather similar fuel-speedcurves, at least for speeds in excess of 40
km/hr though the locationof fuel consumptionminimlsing speed varies quite
substantially(see Table 5.5). The Indian Ashok Leyland vehicle shows much
130 FUEL AND LUBRICANTCOSTS
Figure 5.5: Fuel Consumption (F) versus Rise + Fall (RF):

Light Goods Vehicles and UtilIties
F
275
B
250 - - - -,
225,
200 K
1 50 -, --
125 .---
175
25-
0- ,,,,,,,,, ,-, ., RF
0 20 3 - 40 50 so 70 so so
EQuations B = i3razil VW Kombi

K = Kenya Landrover Jeep
C = Caribbean :Ford Transit
Units: f = Fuel Consumption (1/103kun)

RF = Rise plus Fail Wmkni)
C = Curvature t°Sikm)
R = Roughn ss Bl (mm/km). IRI (niftm)
Varibblz noA Plo3t 0 = Curvature = SOO/ktm

R = Roughness = 5500 i31 (mnm/km) 6.8 IRI tm/ki-e)
L = Looseness (Kenya only) = mm
ALT = Attitude (Brazil oniY) =
GVW = Gross Vehicb WeIght:
i3razil only = 2. 1 tonnes
Caribbe n only = 2.6 tonnes
in the Appendix to Chapter 4.
Figure 5.6: Fuel Consumption (F) versus Curvature (C):

F
225, -
200,
175
ISO-
125-
100
7S-
sn
o-
0 z200 400 500 800 1000 1200
Fuel Consumption (F) versus Roughness (R):

Light Goods Vehicles and Utilitles
-'25
225~~~~~~~~~~~,
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~B
(ur;pavet)
,, _ - B (p-ved)
zoo0 - _--
175
150
125
100
75
50
0 2000 4000 5000 8000 10000 12000
2,8 7.4 9.5 12.0 14 80

i I R, IRI
2.8 S.1 7.4 9.5 12.0 14.0
Table 5.4: Fuel Experiment Vehicle Fleets: Buses and Trucks
Gross
Country Vehicle Engine Engine Power Number Tire Tire Tare Vehicle Vehicle Make
Capacity (kw) axles Size Type Weight Weight
(cc) (kg) (kg)
Kenya Truck 5420 80 at 2BOOrpm 2 825 x 20 R 3345 8420 Bedford J4LC5
Caribbean Truck 6000 84 at 2600rpm 2 825 x 20 R 4030 8420 Ford DIOIO
w India Medium Truck 4788 83 at 2800rpm 2 900 x 20 C 6120 12180 Tata 1210 SE/42
01) Heavy Truck 11100 134 at 2200rpm 2 1100 x 20 C 8125 16260 Ashok Leyland Beaver
Brazil Medium Truck 5675 96 at 28OOrpm 2 900 x 20 C 5400 13000 Mercedes Benz L-1113
Heavy Truck 5675 96 at 2BOOrpm 3 1000 x 20 C 6600 18500 Mercedes Benz
L-1113 with 3rd axle.
Articulated Truck 188 at 220Orpm 5 1100 x 22 C 14700 40000 Scanla 110/39
Bus 5675 96 at 2800rpm 2 900 x 20 C 8100 11500 Mercedes Benz 0362
Notes: 1. AJl non-steering axles were fitted with dual tires.

2. All engines were six cylinder diesels.
higher fuel consumption than the other vehicles and a distinctively U-

shaped fuel speed curve. Note though that this is the most powerful of the
four vehicles. With a power to weight ratio of 10 kw/tonne, the common
setting used for all vehicles in Figure 5.7, the vehicle Is grossing 13.5
tonnes while the other vehicles are grossing only around 8 tonnes.
For the Kenyan and Caribbean vehicles fuel consumption is

predicted to Increase by around 47 Q /103 km wlth every 10 m/km Increase In
rise, and to drop by around 23 Q /103 km with every 10 m/km increase In
fall, speed held fixed. Gradient effects are qulte similar for the Indlan
Ashok Leyland vehicle but smaller for the Indian Tata truck. Fuel
consumption minimising speed Is between 30 km/hr and 38 km/hr except for
the Indian Tata for which it is higher at 46 km/hr.
As for cars, the Indian survey truck fuel equations show rather
smaller gradient effects and rather higher levels of fuel consumption than
do the Indian experimental data based equations. The problem of comparing
user survey and experiment based fuel equations is considered In Appendix
A5.4.2. Predicted fuel consumption obtained using the speed models given
In the previous chapter and adjusted using the figures given In Table 5.1
are graphed In Figures 5.8 - 5.13. The treatment of variables not varying
over tables and graphs is as described in the previous section.
Figures 5.8 and 5.9 show predicted fuel consumption for buses, all
obtained from the Brazilian study model - only this study examined bus fuel
consumption in fuel experiments. Roughness effects are relatively weak but
the effect of gradient Is substantial. Curvature effects are small, In
contrast to those found for cars. As before assumptions concerning
superelevation are Important.
Figures 5.10 - 5.11 show predicted fuel consumptions for medlum

trucks with gross vehicle weight between 8 tonnes and 16 tonnes obtained
using the Brazilian, Kenyan, Caribbean, and Indian models. The Brazilian
model predictions relate to the Mercedes Benz 1113 diesel fuelled vehicle.
As noted In the previous sections the Brazilian fuel consumption
predictions are substantially higher than those obtained In the other three
studies - those studies being In broad agreement concerning the level of
fuel consurption. The Brazilian and Caribbean models predlct much larger
gradient effects than do the Indlan and Kenyan models. All the models
ascribe only small Influences to curvature and roughness.
Figures 5.12 - 5.13 show predictions for heavy trucks (GVW - 20

tonnes) and for articulated trucks (GVW - 40 tonnes) obtained using the
Brazilian study fuel and speed models. Here the curvature effects are very
small given our assumptions concerning superelevation. However, the
gradient effects are very substantial, despite the considerable speed
reduction that Increasing gradient causes. The general level of fuel
consumption predictions for the articulated vehicle Is high. Appendix C
contains tables of predicted bus and truck fuel consumption and associated
speed predictions.
Figure 5.7: Truck Fuel-Speed Equations
C ~____________ _, .________
O~~~~ -...- - - -
..... -. -i - - - CrbenWr
oD_ _,k~
0 Fn
JndAsn~~~~~Cwb~
___ ,,i L.
L
a 0
4J 0
-0
-4J
-40
4-
C.,
-4~~ 0 06 0 0 2
rogn s2000 40m/km

rie80l- mlm w100 kw 2nn
Table 5.5: Fuel Consumption (k/10 3 km): Medium Trucks and Buses
Coetfic.ents__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Vehidle Country Type of Road Vehicle on speed

Clas Study Surface Make Fuel Intercept (V. km/h) Rise Fadl Oher Variables(1) .Optimaj
1/V V2 (m/kn) (m/km) Spod"e(2)
.____ ._______ _____ .____ /hr)
(tkm
Rus India Surveyi3 ) Mostly paved Tata 69% Disel -12 36 3940 .0681 0.79 *.0028R + .0081K 32
I_ _____ __ _ _._ Leylarnd

Leln 31%
3% _ __ _ .__ .__ ___ _. ______
Truck India Experimental Mostly paved Tata Diesel W.07 3906 .0207 3.33 -1.78 +.0012R - 6.24PW 46
Truck India Experimental Mostly paved Ashok Leyland Diesel 266.50 2517 .036z 4.27 -2.74 +,OOS6R- 6.2ZPW 33
Truck India Survey(2) Mostly Paved Tata 60% Diesel 71.70 5670 .0787 1.43 -3.9fW - 9.2OPW 33
Ashok
D_ -- _ so
Leyland 33%I_ _ __- ___ ___
Truck f___ ribbea Experimental Paved Ford D1010 Dieell 29.24 2219 .0203 6.83 -2.60 -.85(GVW - 7.0)RS 38
(.0 -- ~~~~~~~ -I ------
903 .0143 4.36
_ _ _ _ _
-1.83
_ _ -
-3,22PW
2
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-
.013F1 . _ _
32
_
CA Truck Kenya Experimental Paved Bedford J4LCS Diesel1 105.4

Truck Kenya EVprimenta Unpaved Bedford J4LCS 1Z20 796 .0150 4.18 -2.22 -3.51PW + 1.97L 30
_I-_i___~ ____
Notes: Fuel consumptionis a linear function of the explanatory variables with coefficients as given
above.
(1) R = surface roughness, Bl (mm/km)

FL = tall (m/krn)
L = depth of loose material (mm)
GVW = gross vehicle weight (tonnes)
RS = rise (m/km)
PW power to gross vehicle weight ratio (kw/tonne)
K vehicle age at survey midpoint (103 km)
(2) "Optimal speed" is speed at which predicted'fuet consumption is minimized
(3) Coeffcient recorded in "rise" oolumn Is oeffhcienton rise plus fall (rn/km) (Survey only).
Figure 5.8: Fuel Consumption (F) versus Rise + Fall (RF): Buses
F
800q
B
550
500
450
400,
3001
250
200-
150-
100-
.I_
so
O- .. ... . . .. .,.,.j,.,.,. RF
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Euaigons: B = Brazil, MercedesBenz 0362
UnitSa F 5 3 km)
Fuel Consumption(1U10
RF = Ris,plus Fall (m/km)
C = Curvature (Ofkm)
R = Roughnes. BI (mm/km). IRI (m/km)
Varkble not Plotted: C = Curvature = 500/km

R = Roughness= 5500 81 (mm/km). 6.8 IRI tm/km)
ALT = Attitude(Brazil only)= 0
GVW = Gross Vehicle Weight = 11 tonnes
137
FUEL AND LUBRICANT COSTS
Flgure 5.9: Fuel Consumption (F) versus Curvature (C): Buses

F
3004
------------------------- _ .B
-------------
275
250
22!
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
ao 600 1000 1200

0 200 400
Fuel Consumption (F) versus Roughness (R): Buses
B (unpaved)
330
(paved) B (paved)
300 B
270 B (unpaved)
240
210
150
120
so
30
GOOD z000 10000 12000

0 2000 4000
2.8I 5.1. .- I I I R, IRI

7.4 9.5 12.0 14.0
28 5.1
Flgure 5.10: Fuel Consumption (F) versus Rlse + Fall (RF): Medlum Trucks
F
sno
800
700,
600 C
500 ,, -s/
400- - I
- - - - --- - - - - - -
100-
00 130 4 so so 70 en 90
Eauations: B = Brazil, Mercedes-Benz Li1113

C = Caribbean, Ford DIOIO
I =India. Tata 1210 SEt42
K =Kenya, Bedford J4LC5
Unifts F =Fuel Consumption (A/10)3km)

C = Curvature (°{km)
R = Roughness, ENl(mm/km), IRI (mfkm)
ziables not Plotted: C = Curvature = SOO/km

R = Roughness= 5500 Si (mm/kmn), 6.8 IRI (m/km)
L = Looseness (Kenya only) =1 mm
ALT = Altitude (Brazil only) =
Gvw = GrossVehicle Weight (Brazil only) = 14 tonnes
PW = Power to Weight ratio:
Kenya = 10 bhp/tonne
India = 10 kw/tonne
For other Brazilian speed model varlables not plotted, see default values
Figure 5.11: Fuel Consumptlon (F) versus Curvature (C): Medium Trucks
F
450…
…---------- --------------------------- ------- B
400
350
300 - - ___-- __---____- ____-- __---__ -- --- --- - _- - _- -__- - C
250 - ---------------------------
200 K
15D
100
50
o 200 400 600 600 1000 1200
Fuel Consumption (F) versus Roughness (R): Medium Trucks
B (unpaved)
a
450
450-~~~~~~~~~_
555
-a-
-
~B~paved)
400- _ -55--
350
300----- -------- -__-_ -_ -__- -___

_-__-- -- -- --- -
250 -----
------------- , ----- ------ - - - -
_K
200
1so
100
50
.B*- ,,1,r
1,,,,,,,,,.,BI
--R,
,-l,
,.,
a 2000 4000 60cc BO00 10000 12000
2_8I 5.1 -- r l 1- I
2.8 5.1. ?.4 9.5 12.0 14.0
Figure 5.12: Fuel Consumption (F) versus Rise + Fall (RF):

Heavy and Articulated Trucks
F
B (Artic),
1900-
/~~~~/
1400
1200 //
0 - , B (heavy)
4000
200
400R
0 10 20 30 40 50 e0 70 ao go
Eguations: B = Brazil: Heavy= MercedesBenzL1113 with 3 xles

= Scanla
Articulated 110/39 2 axle tractor with tri-aie trailer
Units: F = Fuel Consumption (I/103kn)

RF = Riseplus Fall (mrkm)
C = Curvature (/km)
R = Roughnoss, Bl (mm/km), IRI (m/km)
Variablsnot Plott d: C = Curvature 5=0°/krn

R = Roughness = 5500 BI (mm/krn), 6.8 IRI (m/km)
ALT = Altitude = 0
GVW = Gross Vehice Weight = 20 tonnes Heavy,
40 tonnes Articulated
COSTS 141
FUEL AND LUBRICANT
Figure 5.13: Fuel Consumption (F) versus Curvature (C):
Heavy and Articulated Trucks
B (Artuc)
700-
B (heavy)
200-
400-
300-
2100
100
200 400 800 Sao 1000 1200
(F) versusRoughness
Fuel Consumption (R):
Heavyand ArticulatedTrucks
F
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~-
B (ArtiC - =paved)
B (Arttic--upaved)
B (heavy - -npaved)
goo B (heavy- paved)
400-
0.. . . .. BSi
0 2000 40010 8000~ 8000 100300 12000
I ~ ~~~ ~9.5 ~ ~ ~~
12.0
~IR,
14.0
IRI
2.8 5.'1 7.4
5.4 FUEL CONSUMPTION: CONCLUDING REMARKS
The fuel consumption predictions developed from the studies'

experiment based data show some substantial differences both in levels of
fuel consumption and in the influences of highway conditions. In part
these must be due to the differences In vehicle specification outlined
earlier and revealed in the fuel-speed relationships graphed In Figures
5.1, 5.2, and 5.7. Users of the equations should take care to ensure that
the equations they use are appropriate for the vehicles In the environment
that they face. The Brazilian fuel consumption model allows adjustment of
certain vehicle characteristics to facilitate transfer to new environments.
However, many important features of vehicle and engine design cannot be
adjusted by users so even this model should be employed with caution.
The experiment based fuel equations reported In this chapter are

intended for use with the vehicle speed models given in Chapter 4, and most
of the comparisons of predictions of fuel consumption given here have used
the fuel predictions which emerge after predicting speed using those
models. The vehicle speed models contain the influences of relative prices
and generally of country specific factors and In part the evident
differences In the studies' predictions must be due to variations In these
factors.
The fuel consumption levels predicted by the studies vary quite

substantially - those for the medium and large Brazilian cars and the
Brazilian tractor-semi-traller combination being particularly high. As one
would expect, gradient has the major impact on fuel consumption and the
studies' predictions of the Influence of gradient are fairly close to one
another. There Is some disagreement concerning the effects of roughness
and curvature. So far as curvature Is concerned, the effect comes largely
from the speed equations. The Brazilian model predicts relatively large
effects, fuel consumption Increasing with curvature. The Kenyan model
predicts an effect In the opposite direction, but this may be unreliable
since It is obtained from data covering only a narrow range of curvature.
In the Brazilian model, roughness effects are built In to both the fuel and
the speed equations and the predicted roughness effects are large relative
to those reported by the other studies.
The Indian and Brazilian studies report large correction factors

to be applied to raise predicted fuel consumptions to the sort of levels
observed under commercial operating conditions. The Kenyan and Caribbean
studies give much smaller corrections but It seems that these are designed
to allow for speed changes alone and not for quality of maintenance,
overloading, and so forth. Users will need to examine the levels of fuel
costs In the environments they face to ensure that the equations they use
give predictions of appropriate magnitudes.
5.5 LUBRICANT COSTS
Vehicle lubricant costs which include costs associated with the

consumption of engine oils, other oils and grease, are a minor element of
transport costs and only In the Indian study was substantial effort devoted
to collecting detailed vehicle lubricant data. Lubricant costs are
generally small and rather difficult to analyze. They typically constitute
less than 3 percent of total vehicle operating costs and there are large
variations across companies in the pattern of lubricant consumption.
Engine oil, the most important of the three lubricant categories, Is
consumed during regular oll changes and, between oil changes, when oil
burned or blown away during operation Is replenished. Oil change Intervals
are specified by vehicle manufacturers and In developing countries tend to
be around 5,000 km. Most owners instruct their drivers to check engine oll
levels each day and replenish as necessary and it Is difficult to get good
estimates of amounts of oil used in this way. Transmission oils are
checked much less frequently, principally because the drive systems are
difficult to reach and little oil is generally lost between service
Intervals unless components are damaged. Frequently, the quantities of
olls added at servicing are small and the effort required to collect these
data Is excessively large given their small contribution to total vehicle
operating costs. In this section we discuss only the results concerning
engine oil consumption.
In the Kenyan study, records of a large bus company were examined

and, based on over seven million vehicle kilometers of operation, It was
calculated that oil consumption due to oil changes amounted to 1.96 /103
km while oil consumption due to replenishment between oil changes amounted
to 2.34 Z/103 km. A company running large engined trucks recorded
2.4 Z/103 km due to oil changes and 1.55 /103 km due to replenishment
between oil changes, the former figure reflecting the larger sump capacity
of the 11.5 liter engined vehicles. The Kenyan study reported an average
figure for total oil consumed of 4 9/103 km for both bus and truck
operations on paved roads. Garages and vehicle owners supplied the average
total oil consumption on paved roads for cars and light goods vehicles
reported In Appendix B. Additional evidence from vehicle operators
suggested that oil consumption doubled on unpaved roads so average oli
consumption on gravel and earth roads was obtained by doubling the paved
road consumption figures. Data collected In the Caribbean study were felt
to be sufficiently close to the Kenyan paved averages to permit the same
figures to be recommended in that study.
The equations for engine oil consumption as reported In the

Brazilian study are unsatisfactory because they contain, as an explanatory
variable, the number of oil changes per thousand km which Is Itself, to
some extent, dependent on highway conditlons. The data for buses and
trucks were therefore reanalysed (Chesher 1983) and the resulting equatlons
are reported In Appendix B. The data on car oil consumption were
unavailable at the time of this reanalysis and the car oil consumption
equation, as given in the Brazilian study report, is reported In Appendix
B, the number of oil changes being set to one change per 5,000 km. The
Indian study reported separate equatlons for engine oil, other oils, and
grease.
Predictions of engine oil consumption (Q /103 km) at different

levels of road roughness are given In Table 5.6. It is evident that Indian
cars have high levels of consumption, especially on rough roads. The
design of Indian car engines would lead one to expect high oil consumption
and the average vehicle age In the survey is close to 100,000 km. However,
the effect of roughness seems unreasonably large, with car oil consumption
predicted to exceed that of a medium truck on rough routes. Both Brazilian
Table 5.6: Engine Oil (Q/103 km) Consumptionat Various Levels

of Roughness In the Four Studies
Study
Roughness Vehicle
8l IRI Kenya Caribbean Brazil India
(mm/kmn)(rnkm)
2000 2.8 Car 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.8

Light Goods 1.8 1.8
Bus 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.6
Truck 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.4
4000 5.1 Car 1.2 1.2 1.8 2.6

Light Goods 1.8 1.8
Bus 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.8
Truck 4.0 4.0 4.5 3.5
6000 7.4 Car 2.4 2.1 3.0

Light Goods 3.6
Bus 8.0 3.8 4.0
Truck 8.0 4.9 3.6
8000 9.5 Car 2.4 2.3 3.4

Light Goods 3.6
Bus 8.0 4.0 4.2
Truck 8.0 5.3 3.7
10000 12.0 Car 2.4 2.6 3.9

Light Goods 3.6
Bas 8.0 4.1 4.4
Truck 8.0 5.8 3.8
Notes Variables not plotted set to:
LK,K = Vehkle Age = 300000/km Brazil Bus, 345000/km India Bus.

C = Curvature = 1070/kvn (India car)
RF = Rise pius Fall = 15m/km India Bus, 13 m/km India Truck.
Surfaoe type: 2000 Bl(mm/krn), 2.8 IRI(m/km), 4000 Bl(mm/rkm), 5.1 IRI(m/km),
paved, remainder unpaved.
Table 5.7: Percentage Increase In Engine Oil Consumptlon Moving

from Paved to Unpaved Road
Study
Vehicle Kenya Brazil India
cars 100 53 89
Buses 100 11 17
Trucks 100 29 9
Notes: Paved= 1000 B8(mm/km), 1.5 IRI(m/km)

Unpaved= 8000 Bl(mm/km), 9.5 IRl(m/km)
and Indian buses show small roughness effects and the figures suggest
similar levels of oil consumption for these vehicles. Roughness Is
predicted to hav_;a very small effect on Indian truck oil consumption and
Indian trucks are predicted to consume less than Indian buses at all
roughness levels. The average truck age Is less (223,000 km) than buses
(345,000 km) Inn the Indian survey but, even so, this result Is surprising.
Table 5.7 summarizes the effect of moving from paved to unpaved roads,
2,000 to 8,000 mm/km.
The effects of the explanatory variables were generally found to

be weakly determined In the Indian study equations for other oils and
grease. Accordingly, average values for the consumption of engine oil,
other oils and grease were reported for cars, buses, and trucks. It was
found that increasing engine oil costs by 43 percent yielded a reasonable
estimate of total lubrication costs. However, experience in Brazil
suggests that this figure Is rather high for general use and for the
purposes of predlcting total operating costs In the other studles a figure
of 25 percent has been used.
APPENDIXA. FUEL CONSUMPTION

EQUATIONSAS REPORTED
BY THE FOURSTUDIES
A5.1 Kenya
Hide et al. (1975) report separate equations for paved and unpaved
road surfaces. They use the following notation:
F - fuel consumption ( 103 km)

RS - rise (m/km)
FL - fall (m/km)
L - depth of loose material (mm)
PW - power to gross vehicle weight ratio (bhp/tonne)
Means and ranges for explanatory variables have been reported In

the appendix to Chapter 4. The fuel consumption equations are as follows.
Figures In parentheses are "t-statistics" (ratios of coefficients to
standard errors).
Cars, paved roads
F - 65.36 + 499/V + .0058V2 + 1.594RS - .854FL

(3.7) (19.0) (53.3) (-30.6)
R2 _ .91, S - 13.94, 776 observations
Cars, unpaved roads
F - 46.90 + 614/V + .00788V2 + 1.724RS - 1.066FL + .822L + .00113R

(2.9) (14.2) (23.0) (-14.7) (2.9) (3.7)
R2 _ .87, S - 15.02, 387 observations.
Land Rover, paved roads
F - 74.70 + 1151/V + .0131V2 + 2.906RS - 1.277FL

(4.7) (16.7) (56.8) (-29.7)
R2 - .92, S - 19.92, 619 observations.
Land Rover, unpaved roads
2
F - 72.78 + 844/V + .0137V + 2.828RS - 1.306FL + 1.757L + .0011OR
(3.1) (14.5) (38.67) (-20.0) (5.3) (3.5)
R2 _ .91, S - 18.77, 488 observations.

Medium truck, paved roads
F - 105.43 + 903/V + .0143V 2 + 4.362RS - 1.834FL - 2.395PW

(13.4) (19.8) (58.5) (-28.7) (-15.9)
R2 _ .87, S - 37.63, 1,215 observations.
Medium truck, unpaved roads
F - 121.99 + 796/V + .0150V 2 + 4.176RS - 2.216FL - 2.619PW + 1.969L

(9.3) (14.9) (38.9) (-23.2) (-13.0) (3.3)
+ .00145R
(3.2)
R2 _ .86, S - 35.20, 836 data points.
Remarks
The three test vehicles were run a minimum of three times over 95
test sectlons (each one kilometer long, 49 paved, 46 unpaved) at a series
of constant speeds. Runs were made at 10 km/hr and at 10 km/hr Increments
up to the maximum attainable speed of the vehicle. The car and Land Rover
were run In one load state and the medium truck was run empty, half loaded
and full. Observations used In analysis are averages of replicate runs.
The reported estimates of the variance of the disturbance term Indicate
non-negligible dispersion In fuel consumption, even under strictly
controlled experimental conditions. For Instance, for cars on paved roads,
S Is reported as 13.94 which suggests that prior to averaging the standard
deviation of fuel consumption over a 1 km long section, speed and gradient
held fixed Is around 10 /103 km Implying a 95 percent confidence Interval
nearly 40 /103 km wide on fuel consumption In single runs over 1 km long
sections. Despite this variability, R2 statistics are high because of the
much larger variation In fuel consumption once speed and gradient vary,
variation which Is attrlbutable to speed and gradient variation.
Hide et al. (1975) derive a relationship between fuel consumption

and gross vehicle weight (GVW, tonnes) using user survey fuel consumption
data and add this to the medium truck fuel consumption equations gIven
above to allow predictlons to be made for heavy goods vehicles and buses.
To Incorporate this adjustment add (-154 + 69.2 (GVW)1 / 2 ) to the medium
truck fuel consumption equations. To convert fuel consumption predictions
given using the equations reported above to predictions of fuel consumption
under normal operating conditions Hlde et al. (1975) recommend multiplying
car and Land Rover predictions by 1.08 and multiplying bus and truck
predictions by 1.13. In the main text the equations are reported after
converting coefficients on the power to weight ratio so that they apply to
power to weight ratio In kilowatts per tonne.
Chesher (1977) reports estimates of a fuel consumption equatlon of

the form:
F - exp((ao + a 1RS + a2 FL) + (0P + f 1RS + p2 FL)V + (70 + 71 RS + 72 FL)V2 )
which allows gradient to have a non-linear effect on fuel consumption and

which allows the fuel-speed relationship to be shifted quite flexibly as
gradient alters. The estimates obtained by applying ordinary least squares
with the dependent variables written as loge(F) are given In Table A5.1.
For unpaved roads aO is written as moo + aQ1 L + aO2 R. Separate equations
are estimated for the three load conditions of the medium truck. For the
car the dependent variable is F not loge(F).
In the Highway Design and Maintenance Model (HDM ill), these

equations appear in a modified form, a gross vehicle weight effect for
trucks being Introduced by interpolating the results obtained for the truck
In Its three load states.
A5.2 Caribbean
Morosiuk and Abaynayaka (1982) report equations for fuel

consumptlon as given below. Notation is as in the previous section.
Passenger cars
F - 24.305 + 969/V + 0.00758V2 + 1.334RS - .0630FL + 0.00286FL2

(15.7) (12.1) (98.7) (-14.4) (7.6)
R2 _ 0.95, 1,161 observations, S not reported.
F - 72.207 + 949/V + 0.00483V2 - 1.183FL + .00573FL2 + 1.118GVW.RS

(15.1) (6.5) (-25.2) (13.9) (158.3)
Medium trucks
F - 29.240 + 2219/V + 0.02031V2 - 2.60FL + 0.0132FL2 + 0.8478 GVW.RS

(15.7) (11.4) (-25.8) (15.0) (155.1)

Table A5.1: Fuel Consumption Equations Incorporating Speed-Gradient Interactions
0
Surface [_"'nen _o aoi I all 02 1 al 2 Yo Yi T 2 d No. No. of
2 2 2
Vehicle Type Viable (Intercept) (L) (R) (RS) (FL) (V) (RS. V) (FL. V) CV ) (RS.V ) (FL V ) R2 S Ober- Sections
vationa
Car Paved F 64.48 1.67 .107 -. 133 .00477 -. 0208 .00729 -. 0O0S52 .0000782 .92 13.61 696 43
Car Unpaved F 68.61 420 .890 2.15 -. 380 -. 202 -. 0112 -. 0157 .00930 .0000350 .0000403 .88 14.88 358 25
Landrover Paved b9gF 4.6Sg .0131 .0123 -. 000437 000147 -. 000813 .0000904 -. 00000231 .00000692 94 .119 551 44
Landrover Unpaved iogeF 4.s0 . 00935 .0103 .0154 .00567 .00128 .000100 -. 000601 .0076 -. 00000199
.000049 .92 .113 484 38
Empty Paved bg 1 F 4.032 .0203 -. 00745 .0129 .0030138 -. 00102 .0000186 -. 00000189 .000001 .92 .277 528 44
Truck I_I_I_I_I_I
Empty Unpaved iorF 4.489 .0148 .0252 .0199 -. 0313 -. 0-337 -. 00W722 -. 0000799 .000114 .00000050 .00000328 .92 .190 404 38
Truck
'0
Full Paved logF 5.772 W197 -. 0216 -. 05S2 .00155 -. 0W151 .000638 -. 0000155 .0000165 .90 .415 272 22
Truck I_I_I_I_I_I _I_I_I_I_I_
F Unpaved IoF 5 .32 .2 .018 .0087 -. 0339 -. 0257 .87 -. 10 .000342 -. 0000107 .0000214 .96 .236 141 12
Notes: Dependent variable (column 3) Is a linear function of explanatory varable with coafficnts as ahown abov.
F = fuel consumption (C/103 kim)
L = depth of loose surfae mnaterial (mm)
R = surfaceroughnes (mmfkm)
RS = ris (mCkin)
FL = fll (m/kin)
V = vehiclespeed (km/hr)

Approximate ranges and means of explanatory variables, except GVW.RS for

which they are not reported, are given In Appendix A4.2
Remarks
The car was operated In one load condition representing two

passengers and Instrumentation, the light goods vehicle was run empty and
full (1.5, 2.6 tonnes GVW respectively) and the medium truck was operated
empty, half loaded and full (4, 7, and 10 tonnes GVW respectively). The
test vehicles were run, In each load condition, at constant speeds ranging
from 16 km/hr to the maximum speed attainable by the vehicles on each of 82
test sections and the average speed and fuel consumption on each run was
recorded. Six runs were repeated at each speed and the mean of the four
most consistent runs was used in the analysis.
Morosluk and Abaynayaka (1982) adopt the Kenyan study correction

factors (see A5.1.1) to adjust fuel consumption predictions to give
predictions of fuel consumption under normal operating conditlons.
A5.3 Brazil
Fuel consumption equations are obtained from experimental data and

from user survey data. First we report the experiment results.
A5.3.1 Fuel consumptlon experiments
The fuel consumption model estimated using the fuel experiment

data Is described In the main text. Fuel consumption is written as a
function of vehicle speed (V) which has to be predicted before the fuel
consumption model can be used. Separate equations apply for uphill and
downhill road sections. The model as given here applies to routes for
which vertical geometry Is described by average rise + fall. The route Is
regarded as consisting of two sections, one with rise equal to rise + fall,
and fall equal to zero, the other with rise equal to zero and fall equal to
rise + fall. Given predicted uphill and downhill speeds (Vu, Vd), uphill
and downhill horsepower delivered to the vehicle's wheels are predicted
using:
Uphill sections
HPU - [(1000CR + RF) GVW.g.Vu + AIR Vu]/7 36 .
Downhill sections
7 36
HPd - [(1000CR - RF) GVW.g.Vd + AIR V3d]/
where: CR - coefficient of rolling resistance (dimensionless)

- .0218 + .0000467QI for cars and utilitles
- .0139 + .0000198/QI for buses and trucks
01 - surface roughness (Ql Index) (1QI - 55 mm/km)Bi
RF - rise + fall (m/km)
g - gravitational constant (9.81 m/sec2 )
Vd,Vu = downhill, uphill speeds (m/sec)
AIR - 0.5 p CD AR
where p - mass density of air (kg/m3 )
- 1.225 (1-2.26 10-5 A]
A - altitude (m)
CD - aerodynamic drag coefficient (dimensionless)
AR - projected frontal area of vehicle (m2 ).
Predictions of fuel consumption per unit time period are made

separately for uphill and downhill sections using the following equations.
UFCi - aO + a1 CRPM + a2 CRPM2 + a3 HPi + a4 HPI CRPM + a5 HP12
HPI 2 0
UFCj - aO + a1 CRPM + a2 CRPM2 + a6 max (NHO, HPj) + a7 max (NHO, HPi)2
HPI < 0
with I - u (uphill) and d (downhill).
Here ao, ... , a7 and NHO are estimated coefficients reported In Table A5.2
and UFCU and UFCd are per tIme period fuel consumptlons (ml/sec) on
respectively uphill and downhill segments. CRPM Is the "nominal" average
engine speed (rpm) assumed constant within a vehicle class, invariant with
respect to changes in vehicle speed and highway conditlons. The values of
CRPM determined for Brazilian test fleet vehicles are given In Table A5.2.
Watanatada et al. (1987) recommend the use of these values In applications
In which the maximum rated engine speeds of vehicles are similar to those
found In Brazil. Should they differ, they recommend use of a value for
CRPM equal to 75 percent of the maximum rated RPM of the vehicle for which
predictions are desired.
Fuel consumptlon In liters per 1,000 kilometers Is given by:
F -500a
(UFCU +
UFCd
u Vd
where a - 1.16 for cars and light goods vehicles
- 1.15 for buses and trucks
is an adjustment to convert to fuel consumption under normal operating

conditions.
The data used to estimate the fuel consumption model were obtained
from eleven test vehicles constructed to ten distinct specifications, two
of the vehicles being Identical Volkswagen Kombis. Details of the vehicles
are given In Table 5.2 In the main text.
Vehicles were run at constant speed In constant gear in different

load conditions over 24 road sections each 1 km long, with constant
gradients varying from -14 to +14 percent. Sectlons varled from smooth
(1,100 mm/km) to rough (16,000 mm/km), some paved, some unpaved. Vehicles
travelled at 10 km/hr and at 10 km/hr Increments until maximum speed was
attained. At each speed runs were made In all feasible gears, and, for
each combination of speed, gear, load, section, direction, a minimum of
three (normally six) runs were made. Data used for analysis are averages
of repeat observations.
The variables HP and RPM were derived for each observation and the
coefficients a0 .... a7 were estimated by ordinary least squares. The
threshold horsepowers NHO, below which fuel consumption Is constant for
changes In speed and highway conditions were determined by examining
scatter diagrams. For any given vehicle class a number of the coefficients
ao .... a7 are specified to be zero, because the coefficients were Judged
to be statistically Insignificantly different from zero during estimation.
The Chevrolet Opala (medium car) Is the only vehicle with a non-zero
coeffIclent "a2 " on CRPM2 and the Dodge Dart (large car) and Volkswagen
Kombi (utility) are the only vehicles with non-zero coefficlent "a4 " on HPu
CRPM. The coefficients recommended by Watanatada et al. (1987) for the
Volkswagen Kombi are obtained from analysis of data generated by one of the
two vehicles of this class that were used In the experiments.
To estimate the model RPM was estimated using Information on gear

chosen and gear ratios. Users of the model are unlikely to have such
Information and Watanatada et al. (1987) recommend assuming constant RPM
under all speed-gradient conditions. The recommended values, CRPM, are
reported In Table A5.2. These values were obtained by comparing fuel
consumption predictions obtained using a variety of values of CRPM with
observed fuel consumption on a number of sections and choosing the CRPM
value giving the closest agreement. The Chevrolet Opala (medium car) and
Dodge Dart (large car) were not employed In the experiments to collect the
data needed to perform this procedure. The Ford-400 (light truck,
gasoline) was employed, but suffered Instrumentation faults. CRPM was
assigned without reference to fuel consumption data for these vehicles.
Reported values of CRPM are between 64 and 87 percent of RPM at rated
maximum horsepower.
A5.3.2 Fuel consumption - user survey
During the Brazilian study road user survey fuel consumption data
were obtained from transport company records. Vehicle speed data were not
available for user survey vehicles so the reported equations relate fuel
consumption directly to highway characteristics. The equatlons given below
are re-estimates reported by Chesher (1982) of equatlons originally given
Table A5.2: Estimatesof Coefficients In Fuel Consumption Model
I S Light Truck | Medium/ Articu-

Vehicle Small Medium Large Utility | Large Heavy
- lated
Type Car car Car Bus Gas ,Diesel Truck Truck
Vehicle VW130C Chevrolet Dodge VWKombi Mercedes Ford iFord Mercedes Scania
Make Opala Dart Benz 400 14000 Benz 1113 110/39
CRPM 3500 3000-t 3300 3300 2300 3300 2600 1800 1700
(rprr)
a0 -8201 23463 -23705 6014 -8 1803 -22955

4-727 -30559
a1 33.4 40.6 100.8 37.6 63.5 127.1j 71.6 95.0 156.1
a2 0 0,01214 0
° 0 0° 0 0 0
a3 5630 7775 j 2784 3846 4323 5867 5129 3758 4002
a4 0 0 0.938 !1.398 0 0 0 0
_____._-------- 1-- t--
----- --- - ------------ t--------- ----
a`5 0 0 13.91 O 8.64 43.70,; 0 19.12 4.41
'4 4460 6552 1 4590 3604 2479 i 384312653 2394 4435
a7 0 0 0 0 11.50 0 0 13.76 26.06

_-_ ------ - ----t--T----t -.4- ______
NHO -10 -12 | -15 i-12 -50 -50 -30 -85 -85
No. of ,
Obser- 1224 1 398 I 421 1043 784 1142 .1020 798 810
vations | , __ _

in GEIPOT (1981) calculated using revised estimates of surface roughness

and estimated generalized least squares allowing for random company
specific errors. The notation is as follows.
F - fuel consumption ( /103 km)

Ql - average surface roughness (Quartercar Index)
C - average degrees of curvature (0 /km).
The equations are given below. Figures In parenthesesare ratios

of coefficientsto their standard errors.
Cars
loge(F) - 4.423 + .00082 Ql + .00136C

(1.9) (5.6)
Su - .072 Sw - .101, 243 vehicles, 6 companies.
loge(F)- 4.790 + .00168 Ql + .00104C + .00666RF

(2.4) (1.76) (1.7)
Buses
loge(F)- 5.618 + .000765Ql + .00036C

(5.2) (2.0)
ApproxlmateMeans and Ranges of ExplanatoryVariables
Vehicle Class Cars Light Goods Buses

Variable Min Max Mean Min Max Mean Min Max Mean
QI(QI Index) 27 144 54 25 140 76 23 240 87

C(°/km) 9 276 57 12 58 25 6 258 40
RF(m/km) 12 46 17

Remarks
There is a good deal of dispersion in user survey fuel consumption

data refiecting differences in vehicle specifications and condition, loads,
speed of travel, type of business, driver behaviour, and so forth. Note
that for any vehicle the user survey fuel consumption data is probably a
rather accurate Indication of that vehicles fuel consumption because it
relates to many tens of thousands of kilometers of travel. The equations
reported above explain only about 10-30 percent of the variation across
vehicles In fuel consumption.
The cars In the user survey data set are Volkswagen 1.3 liter rear
engined sedans, the most popular Brazilian small car during the survey
period. The light goods vehicles In the user survey data set are
Volkswagen Kombis with rather small (less than 2 liters) rear mounted
gasollne engines. The user survey data set contalns a varlety of buses.
A5.4 India
Fuel consumption equations are obtained from experiments and from

user survey data. First we report the experimental results. Notatlon Is
as follows:
F - fuel consumption ( /103 km)

RS - rlse (r/km)
FL - fall (m/km)
PW - power to gross vehicle weight ratlo (kw/tonne).
A5.4.1 Fuel consumptlon experiments
Ambassador car
2
F - 10.31 + 1676/V + 0.0133V + 0.0006R + 1.388RS - 1.032FL
(28.2) (21.5) (1.0) (26.2) (-19.7)
R2 _ 0.88, S - 12.73, 343 observations.
Premier Padmini
F - 49.84 + 319/V + 0.0035V2 + 0.0019R + 0.942RS - 0.677FL

(5.3) (8.8) (3.0) (36.3) (-25.9)
R2 0.97, S - 4.22, 105 observations.
Mahindra Jeep (diesel)
F - 30.83 + 2258/V + .0242V 2 + 0.0012R + 1.278RS - .564FL

(60.36) (48.40) (6.00) (46.8) (-20.70)
R2 _ .97, S - 5.502, 209 observations.

Medium truck (Tata)
F - 85.07 + 3905/V + 0.0206V2 + 0.0012R + 3.328RS - 1.777FL - 6.240PW

(46.7) (9.4) (0.8) (26.7) (-14.3) (-12.8)
R2 . 0.93, S - 28.64, 352 observations.
Medium truck (Ashok Leyland)
F - 266.52 + 2517/V + 0.0362V2 + 0.0066R + 4.265RS - 2.737FL - 6.260PW

(25.2) (13.0) (4.6) (20.0) (-12.8) (-10.5)
R2 . 0.79, S - 41.78, 410 observations.
Approximate Ranges of Explanatory Variables (Means Not Reported)
Variable Vehicle Min Max
RS(m/km) All 0 50
FL(m/km) All 0 50
R(mm/km) Mahindra Jeep 2,130 10,110

Ashok Leyland 4,190 9,334
Others 4,190 8,280
PW(kw/tonne) Tata 4.41 13.65

Ashok Leyland 5.92 16.53
V(km/hour) Ambassador 14 83
Padminl 20 81
Mahindra Jeep 14 74
Tata 10 72
Ashok Leyland 10 58
Remarks
The five test vehicles were each run a minimum of three times at a
series of constant speeds over road sections most of which were 1 km long.
The number of road sections used In the experiments Is not reported nor are
the speeds at which vehicles travelled, though ranges are given above.
Observations in the regression analyses reported above are averages of
repeat runs. Cars and jeeps carried a driver and two passengers, or an
equivalent load. The trucks were run empty and with loads of 5 tonnes and
10 tonnes. Additionally the Tata 1210 was run wlth a load of 12.5 tonnes
and the Ashok Leyland Beaver with a load of 15 tonnes. The majority of
buses In use In India at the time of the study closely resembled the Tata
1210 truck, using the same chassis and engine, so fuel experiments were not
performed using a bus. It was felt that the data produced by the Tata
truck would give an adequate Indication of bus fuel consumption.
In CRRI (1982) fuel consumption while Idling Is reported and the

results are given here In Table A5.3. Results of experiments to compare
fuel consumption with radial and crossply (blas) tires are also reported,
Indicating fuel consumption about 6-7 percent lower on cars with radial
tires. For the Ambassador car this reduction Is less marked once speeds
are far from the fuel minimising optimum speeds. Fuel consumption
equations are also reported for 3-wheeler BaJaJ and Lambretta autorickshaws
and for 2-wheeler Vespa scooters. These results are not given here.
Table A5.3: Fuel Consumption While Idling
Fuel Consumption
Vehicle Type (cc per min)
Ambassador car 13.0

Premier Padmini car 10.5
Mahindra diesel Jeep 12.3
Tata 121OSE truck 15.3
Ashok Leyland Beaver Truck 35.4
Comparing fuel consumption predictions using the models given

above and fuel consumption data obtained during the road user survey,
correction factors are derived to convert fuel predictions to predictions
of fuel consumption under normal operating conditions. These are reported
In the main text In Table 5.1.
A5.4.2 Fuel consumption - user survey
Fuel consumption equations were estimated using data obtained from

vehicles participating In the road user survey. In the indtan study
Information on vehicle speeds (V) was obtained for all user survey vehicles
and the fitted equations take the same form as those reported above, 1/V
and V2 being used as explanatory variables. Following CRRI (1982) we
report the user survey fuel equations with the dependent variable F*
measured In liters per 100 kilometers (not per 1,000 kilometers). The
notation Is as In the previous sectlon except:
F* - fuel consumption ( /102 km)

C - average degrees of curvature (0 /km)
LK - vehicle age at survey midpoint (103 km)
W - pavement width (m).
Ambassador cars
F* - -13.81 + 621/V + 0.00501V2 + 0.000342R + 0.03669RF

(2.6) (3.1) (1.7) (1.2)
R2 - 0.17, S - 1.15, 54 observations.
Buses
F* - -1.236 + 394/V + 0.00581V2 + 0.00028R + 0.00081LK + 0.0788RF +

(7.2) (9.4) (3.5) (2.0) (3.0)
+ 0.00213C
(1.6)
Sw - 4.21, Su - 4.31, 639 vehIcles.
Trucks
* - 7.170 + 567/V + 0.00787V2 - 0.3889W - 0.9202PW + 0.1432RF

(6.2) (9.7) (-1.8) (-5.7) (4.7)
_ 0.53,
-2 S - 2.83, 232 vehicles.
Approximate Ranges and Means of Explanatory Varlables
Variable Vehicle Min Max Mean
V(km/hr) Cars 34 55 43.72

R (mm/km) 3,416 6,955 4,987
RF (m/km) 3 36 10
V(km/hr) Buses 20 55 34
R (mm/km) 2,925 12,072 5,953
LK (Age, 103 km) 22 988 345
RF (m/km) 1 503 15
C (degrees/km) 5 1,021 149
V(km/hr) Trucks 17 55 36
W (m) 4 7 6
PW (kw/tonne) 3 11 7
RF (m/km) 1 58 13

Remarks
The car and truck equations are as reported in CRRI (1982) and were
estimated by ordinary least squares. The bus equation is that reported in
Chesher (1983) and was estimated by generalized least squares allowing for
random company specific errors. Upon re-estimating the bus equation a
curvature effect was found that was not reported In CRRI (1982). In the main
text these equations are reported after converting fuel consumption to liters
per 1,000 kilometers.
Speed data available for user survey vehicles are average speeds
over many tens of thousands of kilometers, during which speeds obviously vary
about the reported averages. Similarly fuel consumption Is average fuel
consumptlon over the survey period. Generally If fuel consumptlon Is related
to speed by:
2
(1) F - a + b/V +cV ,
at constant speed, V, then with speed at a series of constant speeds, the

relationship between average fuel consumption, F and average speed, V, will
not be glven by (1) with F and V replaced by respectively F and V. At
first sight then user survey and fuel experiment equations that both use
the form (1) are In conflict. However, under particular assumptions there
Is no conflict. Suppose that over the kilometers travelled during a user
survey, vehicle speeds are approximately log normally distributed,
log,(speed) having a normal distribution with mean # and variance a2 .
Averaged over user survey routes, fuel consumption, F, is given by
(2) F - a + b E(1/V) + c E(V2 ).
Now, If V Is log normal as assumed above then E(V) - exp (p + 02/2) - V and
1/V and V2 are also log normal. Further, E(1/V) - exp (-p + a2/2) and
E(V2 ) - exp (2p + 2a2 ), so that:
E(1/V) - exp (a2) (1/V)
and
E(V2 ) _ exp ( 2)V2 .
Thus with V log normal, the relationship between average fuel consumption
and average speed is:
(3) - a be C (V)2
which Is the same as the functional form relating F and V. However the
coefficients "b' and "c" become bea2 Ž b and ceo2 2 c and with equality
holding when and only when 02 _ 0 and speed does not vary.
Table A5.4: Comparison of User Survey and Fuel Experiment Coefficients
Experiment Survey
Coefficient on Coefficient on
Vehicle Class 1/V V2 1/V (V)2 be/ce bs/cs

(be) (Ce) (bs) (C S )
Ambassador car 1,676 .0133 6,213 .0501 126,015 123,952
Tata truck 3,905 .0207 188,647

5,670 .0787 72,045
Leyland truck 2,517 .0362 69,530
This simple model suggests that coefficients on (1/V) and (V)2

found using user survey data should be larger than those found on 1/V and
V 2 In experimental data. However the ratios of the coefficients on (1/v)
and (V)2 should be approximately equal to the ratlo of the coefficients on
(1/V) and V2 . It Is of course this ratio that determines fuel consumption
minimising speed.
In practice we would not expect the log normally distributed speed

assumption to hold exactly but the comparisons reported above In Table A5.4
do lend some support to the conjectures made above. Indeed In the only
case In which a direct comparlson can be made, for the experiment and
survey Ambassador cars, the agreement between b/c from the experiment and
b/c from the survey Is remarkable. Note also that In all cases the survey
coefficients are larger than those found using experimental data. It is at
least possible that a partial explanation for the relatively large
correction factors applied In the Indian study to convert experimental fuel
predictions to the sorts of values observed In the user survey is the
variability In the speeds at which user survey vehicles travel.
APPENDIX B. ENGINE OIL CONSUMPTION EQUATIONS AS REPORTED BY THE FOUR

STUDIES
B5.1 Kenya and Caribbean
No engine oil equations were reported In either the Kenyan study

(Hide et al. 1975) or the Caribbean study (Hide 1982) but averages were
given for the main vehicle and road types found In both user surveys. The
averages, In units of liters of engine oil per thousand km, are as follows:
Kenya
Vehicle Type Paved Unpaved
Cars 1.2 2.4

Llght Goods Vehicles 1.8 3.6
Trucks 4.0 8.0
Buses 4.0 8.0
Caribbean
Vehicle Type Paved
Cars 1.2
Light Goods Vehicles 1.8
Trucks 4.0
B5.2 Brazil
The bus and truck equations reported In the Brazilian study

(GEIPOT 1981) were considered unsatisfactory and new estimates were
reported In Chesher (1983). The car equatlon was not re-analyzed and is
given as reported In the Brazilian study report. The notation for all
equations Is as follows:
Oil - Engine oil, liters per 103 km

Ql - Quarter Car Index, Roughness (1QI - 55B1, mm/km)
K - Vehicle age, at survey midpoint, 103 km.
The equations for bus, truck, and car engine oil consumption are:
Bus
loge(Oll) - .475 + .000945QI + .1341og(K)

(3.13) (1.64) (7.27)
Su - .441, Sw - .251, 419 vehicles, 18 companies
Truck
loge(Oll) - 1.342 + .00225QI

(1.57)
Su - .572, SW - .181, 185 vehicles, 19 companies
Car
Oil - 1.271 + .00713QI

(11.46)
R2 _ .88, S - .25, 27 company means, 264 observations.
The variable XOIL, frequency of oil changes per 103 km, that appears In the
car oil equation In GEIPOT (1981) has been set equal to the survey data set
average of 0.2 to obtaln the equation given above. No ranges or means for
exaplanatory variables were reported.
B5.3 India
A number of engine oil equations were reported In CRRI (1982).

Those given below Include measures of roughness and geometry. The notation
for the equations as reported Is:
RF - Rise + fall (m/km)

RG - Roughness (mm/km)
LK - Vehicle age, at survey midpoint, 103 km
CV - Curvature ( 0 /km)
EOL - Engine oil (Z/103 km).
The equations for car, truck, and bus engine oil consumption are:
Car
EOL - 1.598 + .00189CV + .000206 RG

(2.88) (2.15) (1.81)
R2 - .20, S - .924, 54 observations.
Truck
EOL - 2.48 + .06ORF + .000057RG

(4.77) (2.00)
R2 - .24, S - 1.584, 232 observations.

The variable width (W) that appears in the truck oil equation in CRRI
(1982) has been set to 7m to produce this equation.
Bus
EOL - 2.61 + .00178LK + .013RF + .000096RG

(6.87) (1.25) (5.38)
R2 - .48, S - 1.284, 640 observations.
The varlables width (W) and number of major overhauls (OHF) that appear In
the bus oil equations In CRRI (1982) have been set to W - 7m and OHF - .64
(average for the data set) to produce this equation.
Ranges and Mean Values for the Explanatory Varlables
Vehicle Varlable Min Max Mean
Car CV(°/km) 9 690 107

RG(mm/km) 3,416 6,955 4,987
Bus LK(103 /km) 22 988 345

RF(m/km) 1 50 15
RG(mm/km) 2,925 12,072 5,954
Truck RF(m/km) 1 58 13
RG(mm/km) 2,960 15,500 5,331

I
APPENDIX C. TABLES OF SPEED AND FUEL CONSUMPTION PREDICTIONS
This appendix provides speed and fuel consumption predlctions for

each of the studies and most of the vehicle types studied. The predictions
come from the analyses of fuel experiment and roadside speed data. The
tables show predictions for combinations of highway roughness, vertical and
horizontal geometry. Notes to the tables provide values to which other
variables appearing In the studies' equations are set in the case of the
Brazil study, default values common across tables are given In the appendix
to Chapter 4.
Table C5.1a: Cars: Kenya, Ford Cortina Station Wagon

Speed (km/hr)
Aveae Aversg erag Doerees

q d Curvature(/akm)
Rie Surface
plus Roughness 100 300 SQ0 700
Fan
Cm/Im) (mm/Ion) (m/Ian Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved
2,000 2.8
4,000 5.1 89.2 65.3 67.0 41.7 44.8 18.1 22.6 *
10 6,000 7.4 63.5 39.9 16.3 *
8,lW0 9.5 61.7 38.1 *
lOOO 12.0 59.9 36.3*
58.2 _ 34.6 - _ -
2,000 2.8
4,000 5.1 84.6 62.4 62.3 38.8 39.9 15.0 17.1 *
30 6,00 7.4 60.6 37.0 * *
8000 9.5 58.9 35.2 *t
10,000 12.0 57.1 33.4
55.3 31.6 *_*
2,000 2.8 _f_t
4,000 5.1 79.6 59.5 57.2 35.8 34.4 *
6,000 7.4 57.7 34.0
6.000 9.5 55.9 32.2 * *
10.000 12.0 54.1 30.4 *t
20,000 12.08232. - 52.3 - 28.S *-
2.000 2.8 74.4 56.5 51.6 32.6 28.0 *

4.000 5.154737
70 6,000 7.4 54.7 30.7
8.000. 9.5 52.9 1t
28.9
10,000
12 0 51.1 27.1 *f*
10.00012.0 49.3 25.3 * *
A= Atud = 0
M = Moisture content = 2.6%
RD = Rut Depth = 18.9 mm.
*Indlcatesa predIced sped below 15 k/nh.
Table C5.1b: Cars: Kenya, Ford Cortina Station Wagon

Fuel Consumption (t/103 km)
Average Average Average Degrees of Ourvature(0 Ikm)

Rise Surface
plus Roughness -100 300 500 700
FaN el IRI
(mlkm) (mm/kmi) (m/klm) Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 105 S9

4,000 5.1 159
10 6,000 7.4 169
8 000 9.5 107 94
10,000 12.0 108 97
2,000 2.8 109 95

4,000 5.1 109 97
30 6,000 7.4 110 99
8,000 9.5 ltl 101
10,000 12.0 113 104
2.000 2.8 113 101

4,000 5.1 114 104
50 6.000 7.4 115 106
8,000 9.5 117 109
10,000 12.0 118 112
2,000 2.8 118 109

4,000 5.1 120 112
70 6,000 7.4 121 114
8,000 9.5 122 118
10,000 12.0 123 121
Notes: L = depth of loose material = 1 mm.

Table C5.2a: Cars: Caribbean, Ford Cortina Station Wagon

Speed (km/hr)
Average Average Average Degrees of CurvatureC0 /km)

Rise Surface
plus Roughness 100 300 500 7C0
F&N Bi IRI
(mntm) (mmlkm) (mlkn) Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved
62.7 57.9 53.1 48.3
2,000 2.8 61. 0 56.2 51.4 46.6
10 6,000 7.4 59.3 54.5 49.7 44.9

8.000 9.5 57.5 52.7 47.9 43.1
10,000 12.0 55.8 51.0 46.2 41.4
2,000 2.8 61.3 56.5 51.7 46.9

4,000 5.1 59.5 54.7 49.9 45.1
30 6,000 7.4 57.8 53.0 48.2 43.4
8,000 9.5 56.1 51.3 46.5 41.7
10,000 12.0 54.3 49.5 44.7 39.9
2.000 2.8 59.8 55.0 50.2 45.4

4.0C0 5.1 58.1 53.3 48.5 43.7
50 6.000 7.4 56.4 51.6 46.8 42.0
8.000 9.5 54.6 49.8 45.0 40.2
10,000 12.0 52.9 48.1 43.3 38.5
2,000 2.8 58.4 53.6 48.8 44.0

4,000 5.1 56.6 51.8 47.0 42.2
70 6.000 7.4 U49 50.1 45.3 40.5
8,000 9.5 53.2 48.4 43.6 38.8
10.000 12.0 51.4 46.6 41.8 37.0
Table C5.2b: Cars: Carlbbean,Ford Cortina Station Wagon

Fuel Consumption (/10 3km)
Average Average Average Degrees of Curvature(°/km)

Rise Surface
plus Roughness 100 300 500 700
FaN El IRI
(m/km) (mm/km) (m/lun) Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 797 371

4,000 5.1 78 75 72 70
10 6,000 7.4 77 74 72 70
8,000 9.5 75 73 71 70
10,000 12.0 74 n 70 70
2,000 2.8 87 84 81 79
4,000 5.1 86 83 80 79
30 6,000 7.4 85 82 80 79
8,000 9.5 83 81 79 78
10.000 12.0 83 80 79 78
2,000 2.8 S 93 91 89
4,000 5.1 95 92 90 89
So 6,000 7.4 94 91 89 88
8,000 9.5 93 90 89 88
10,000 12.0 92 90 89 88
2,00 2.8 106 104 101 100

4,000 5.1 51011 10
70 6,000 7.4 104 0 101 100
8,000 9.5 103 102 100 100
10,000 12.o 0 0 0 0
_____________ ______ 102 101 100 100
Table C5.3a: Cars: Brazil, Chevrolet Opala Sedan

Speed (km/hr)
0
Average Average Averag DOgrees ot Curvature( lkrn)
Rise Surface _
(m/kn) (mm/km) (Mr/ Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 88.6 73.1 74.3 59.2 64.5 52.4 58.1 48.6
4,!00 5. 1 85.3 71.7 72.8 58.7 63.7 52.1 57.7 48.4
10 6,000 7.4 76.9 67.6 68.4 59.9 61.2 51.1 56.0 47.7
8,000 9.5 66.0 60.8 61.3 53.6 56.6 49.0 52.9 46.1
10oo00 12.0 55.9 53.3 53.6 49.0 50.9 45.8 48.5 43.6
2,000 2.8 88.1 72.9 74.1 59.1 64.4 52.4 58.1 48.6
4,000 5.1 84.9 71.5 72.6 58.6 63.6 52.1 57.6 48.4
30 6.000 7.4 76.7 67.4 68.3 56.9 61. 1 51.0 56.0 47.6
8,000 9.5 65.8 60.7 61.2 53.5 56.6 48.9 52.8 46.1
10,000 12.0 55.8 53.3 53.5 48.9 50.9 45.7 48.5 43.6
2,000 2.8 85.7 71.9 73.0 58.8 63.8 52.2 57.7 48.4
4,000 5.1 83.1 70.7 71.8 58.3 63.1 51.9 57.3 48.2
50 6.000 7.4 75.7 68.9 -67.7 56.6 60.8 50.9 55.7 47,5
8,000 9.5 65.4 60.4 60.9 53.3 56,4 48.8 52.7 46.0
10,000 12.0 55.6 53.1 53.4 48.8 50.7 45.7 48.4 43.6
2,000 2.8 77.5 67.9 57.1 61.4 51.4 51.2 56.1 47.7
4,000 5.1 76.3 67.2 68.0 56.8 61.0 51.0 55.9 47.6
70 6,000 7.4 71.4 64.3 65.0 55.4 59.1 50.1 54.6 47.0
8,000. 9.5 63.3 58.9 59.4 52.5 55.3 48.2 51.9 45.5
10.000 12.0 54.7 52.4 52.6 48.3 50.1 45.3 47.9 43.2
Notes:
ALT = Altitude 0
VW Gras Vehicle Weight (W + LD) z 1.4 tonne
Table C5.3b: Cars: Brazil, Chevrolet Opala Sedan

Fuel Consumption (Q/103 km)
Average Average Aveage De>greesof Curvature( 0f/in)

Rie Surface
plus Roughness 100 300 S00 700
Fall
(mrn/k) (mm/kmn) (m/km Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 207 217 216 240 229 259 243 272
4,000 5.1 211 222 220 244 234 263 247 276
10 6,000 7.4 219 230 229 251 241 269 254 282
8.000 9.5 235 245 244 264 255 280 266 292
10,000 12.0 260 267 267 283 275 296 284 306
2.000 2.8 207 217 216 240 230 259 243 273
4,000 5.1 211 222 221 244 234 263 247 276
30 6,000 7.4 219 230 229 252 242 269 254 282
8,000 9.5 236 245 244 264 255 280 266 292
10.000 12.0 260 268 267 283 276 296 284 306
2.000 2.8 208 220 218 243 232 262 246 276
4,000 5.1 212 224 222 247 236 265 249 279
50 6.000 7.4 220 232 -231 254 244 272 256 285
8.000 9.5 237 247 246 266 257 282 268 294
10,000 12.0 262 269 269 285 277 298 286 308
2.000 2.8 217 228 227 250 240 268 253 281
4.000 5.1 220 232 230 254 243 271 256. 284
70 6.000 7.4 228 239 238 260 250 277 262 290
8,000. 9.5 244 253 252 271 263 28? 273 299
10.000 12.0 267 274 274 289 282 302 291 313
ALT = Altitude = 0
GVW = Gross Vehicle Weight = 1.4 tonnes
Table C5.4a: Cars: India, Ambassador Sedan

Speed (km/hr)
Average Average Average Degrees of Curvature(0 /km)

Rise Surface
FaH 81 IRI
(m/km) (mm/kn) (rn/km) Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 58.1 56.5 54.9 53.4

4.000 5.1 50.9 49.3 47.7 46.2
tO 6,000 7.4 43.7 42.1 40.5 39.0
8.000 9.5 36.5 34.9 33.3 31.8
10,000 12.0 29.3 27.7 26.1 24.6
2,000 2.8 54.3 52.7 51.2 49.6

4,000 5.1 47.1 45.5 44.0 42.4
30 6,000 7.4 39.9 38.3 36.8 35.2
8,0 9. 32.7 31.1 29.6 28.0
10.000 12.0 25.5 23.9 22.4 20.8
2,000 2.8 50.5 49.0 47.4 45.9

S0 64000 7. 4 43.3 41.8 40.2 38.7
8,000 95S 36.1 34.6 33.0 31.5
10,000 12.0 28.9 27.4 25.8 24.3
21 ' 20.2 1laf 17.t
2,000 2.8
4,000 5.1 46.8 45.2 43.7 42.1
70 6,000 7.4 39.6 38.0 36.5 34.9
8,000 9.5 32.4 30.8 29.3 27.7
10,000 12.0 25.2 23.6 22.1 20.5
*R n .. 4
1fiL... ___* *
Notes:
W =Width = 7 m.
*Indicates a predicted speed below 15 km/h.
Table C5.4b: Cars: India, Ambassador Sedan

Average Average AverageiDegrees of Curvature(0°/m)

Rise Surface . _
Fanl Bl IRI
(mlkm) (mmflka) (mlkre) Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved
143 140 138 135
4,000 S.1 134 133 131 130
10 6,000 7.4 130 130 129 129
8,000 9.5 132 133 134 136
10,000 12.0 142 146 150 155
2,000 2.8 143 140 139 137

4,000 5.1 136 135 134 134
30 6,000 7.4 135 135 136 137
8,000 9.5 141 143 146 149
10,000 12.0 158 163 169 17
2,000 2.8 144 142 141 139

4,000 5.1 140 139 139 139
50 6,000 7.4 142 143 144 146
8,000 9.5 153 156 1S0 166
10,000 12.0 178 186 197 209
2,000 2.8 146 145 144 143

47000 5.1 145 145 146 147
70 6,000 7,4 151 153 156 159
8,0 9. 168 174 180 189
10,000 12.0 207 221 237 258
Table C5.5a: Light Goods Vehicles: Kenya, British Leyland Land Rover
Speed (km/hr)
lmerag Aerwe Degreesof Curvature(0 Ikrn)

Avberage
plus
Nml Roughmne 100 300 SW070 _ __
Fanl- _ _ _
(mike) (rnm/kn) (m/h) Pavd Unpaved Pad U d Paved Unpavd Paved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 77.1 63.2 62.3 43.7 47.5 24.3 32.7 *

4,0W 5.1 61.3 41.8 22.4*
10 6,000 7.4 59.4 39.9 20.5
8,000 9.5 57.5 38.0 18.6 *
10.000 12.0 55.6 36.1 16.7 *
2.000 2.8 72.1 59.2 57.2 39.7 42.2 19.9 27.0 *

4.000 5.1 57.3 37.7 17.9
30 6,000 7.4 56.4 35.8 15.9
8.000 9.5 53.4 33.9 *
10,000 12.0 51.5 32.0 _
2,00 2.8 66.6 54.9 51.4 35.1 36.0 * 19.8 O

4,000 5.1 53.0 33.2 * *
so 6.000 7.4 51.1 31.2 * *
8.000 9.5 49.1 29.2 * *
10.000 12.0 _ 47.2 _ 27.2
2,000 2.8 60.5 50.3 44.9 30.0 28.6 * a a

4.000 5.1 48.4 27.9 * *
70 6,000 7.4 46.4 25.9 * a
8.000 9.5 44.4 23.8 * a
10.000 12.0 42.5 21.6 a
A = AlUtude = 0
M = Moisture content= 2.6%
*Indicates a predicted sped below 15 kmn/h.
Table C5.5b: Light Goods Vehicles: Kenya, British Leyland Land Rover
Fuel Consumption (g/103 km)
Average Average Average Degrees of Curvature.(/km)

Rise Surface
Fall Bi liii
Cm/kmn) (mm/kim) Cm/km) Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 165 140

4.000 5.1 164 141
10 6.000 7.4 163 142
8,000 9.5 163 144
10,000 12.0 163 145 _
2,000 2.8 175 1-5

4.000 S.1 175 156
30 6,000 7.4 175 1S7
8,000 9.5 175 189
10.0W0 12.0 175 161
2. O0 2.8 187 170

4,000 5.1 187 172
50 6,000 7.4 187 174
8. 000 9.5 187 177
10,0W0 12.0 188 17
2,000 2.8 200 Ise
4,000 5.1 200 188
70 6,000 7.4 200 191
8.00 9. 200 194
10.000 12.0 201 198
Notes: L = depth of loose material = 1 mm.

Table C5.6a: Light Goods Vehicles: Caribbean, Ford Transit Van

Speed (km/hr)
Average Average Average Degrees of Curvature(/knm)

Rim Surface
plus Roughness 100 300 500 7C0
FaN of 1[R
(mkni) (mmlkmn) (m/kn) Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 58.3 53.9 49.5 45.1

4,000 5.1 57.0 52.6 48.2 43.8
10 6,000 7.4 55.7 51.3 46.9 42.5
8,000 9.5 54.4 50.0 45.6 41.2
10,000 12.0 53.0 48.6 44.2 39.8
2,000 2.8 56.8 52.4 48.0 43.6

4,000 5.1 55.5 51.1 46.7 42.3
30 6,000 7.4 54.2 49.8 45.4 41.0
8,000 9.5 52.8 48.4 44.0 39.6
10,000 12.0 51.5 47.1 42.7 38.3
2,000 2.8 55.3 50.9 46.5 42.1

45000 5.1 54.0 49.6 45.2 40.8
50 6,000 7.4 52.6 48.2 43.8 39.4
10,000 12 0 51.3 46.9 42.5 38.1

OW 12.0.0.0 S0, 45.6 41.2 36.8
2,000 2.8
4,000 5.1 53.8 49.4 45.0 40.6
70 6,000 7.4 52.4 48.0 43.6 39.2
8,000 9.5 51.1 46.7 42.3 37.9
10,000 12.0 49.8 45.4 41.0 36.6
Notes:
All speeds recorded on paved road sections.

Table C5.6b: Light Goods Vehicles: Caribbean, Ford Transit Van

Average Average Average Degrees of Curvature ( 0 km)

Rise Surface
plus Roughness -100 300 500 700
FaH BDl IR
(m/kmi) (mmfkm) (m/kin) Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 123 122 121 121

4,000 5.1 123 122 121 121
10 6,000 7.4 122 121 121 121
8,0W 9.5 122 121 121 121
I 10,000 12.0 122 121 121 122
2,000 2.8 144 143 142 142

4,000 5.1 143 142 142 142
30 6,000 7.4 143 142 142 143
8,0W 9.5 143 142 142 143
10,000 12.0 142 142 142 143
2,000 2.8 167 166 166 166

4,000 S.t 165 166 166 166
50 6, 000 7.4 166 166 166 166
8,000 9.5 1 166 166 167
10,000 12.0 166 166 166 167
2.000 2.8 193 192 192 192

4,000 5.1 _ l
70 6.000 7.4 192 192 192 193
8.000 9g5 192 192 192 193
10,000 12.0 192 192 192 193
Gross vehicle weight (GVW) =2.6a tonnes

Table C5.7a: Light Goods Vehicles: Brazil, Volkswagen Kombi

Speed (km/hr)
Average Average Average

r egres of Curvature(t/1mn)
Rise Surface
Fail
(m/kmn) (mm/km) (m/kin Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved
2.000 2.8 75.2 65.0 64.7 54.8 57.4 49.5 52.5 46.4
4.000 5.1 72.1 63.3 63.0 54.0 56.4 48.9 51.8 45.9
10 6.000 7.4 65.7 59.4 59.2 51.9 53.9 47.5 50.0 44.9
8,000 9.5 57.6 53.7 53.6 48.5 49.9 45.1 47.1 42.9
100,D 12.0 49.7 47.6 47.5 44.2 45.2 41.9 43.3 40.2
2,000 2.8 72.5 63.3 63.0 53.9 56.3 48.9 51.8 45.9
4.000 5.1 69.6 61.7 61.4 53.1 55.3 48.3 S1.1 45.5
30 6,000 7.4 63.8 58.1 57.8 51.1 52.9 46.9 49.3 44.4
8.000 9.5 56.3 52.7 52.6 47.8 49.2 44.6 46.5 42.5
10.000 12.0 49.0 46.9 46.8 43.7 44.7 41.5 42.8 39.9
2,00 2.8 66.6 59.6 59.3 51.8 53.8 47.4 50.0 44.8
4,000 5.1 64.5 58.3 58.1 51.1 53.0 46.9 49.3 44.4
50 6,000 7.4 60.0 55.3 55.1 49.3 50.9 45.7 47.8 43.4
8,000 9.5 53.8 50.7 50.6 46.4 47.6 43.5 45.2 41.6
10,000 12.0 47.4 45.6 49.5 42.7 43.6 40.6 41.9 39.2
2.000 2.8 57.4 53.3 53.2 48.0 49.5 44.7 46.6 42.6
4.000 5.1 56.4 52.6 52.4 47.5 48.9 44.3 -46.2 42.3
70 6.000 7.4 53.8 50.6 50.5 46.2 47.5 43.3 45.0 41.5
8.000. 9.5 49.6 47.3 47.2 44.0 44.9 41.6 43.0 40.0
10,000 12.0 44.8 43.3 43.2 40.9 41.6 39.2 40.2 37.9
Notes:
ALT = Altitude= 0
GMW- Gaore Vetde Weight (W + UD) 2.1 tonnes
Table C5.7b: Light Goods Vehicles: Brazil, Volkswagen Kombi

Fuel Consumption (Q/10 3 km)
Average Averge Average Degres ot Curvature(I°km)

Rise Suface
Fall
(mr/krn) (mm/kIn) (mlrnk Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 182 181 182 187 185 194 190 199
4.000 5.1 186 187 187 193 191 199 196 204
10 6,000 7.4 191 193 193 200 19S 206 202 211
8.000 9.5 199 202 203 209 207 215 211 220
10.000 12.0 212 215 215 221 220 227 224 231
2,000 2.8 182 182 183 188 186 195 191 200
4.000 5.1 187 188 188 194 192 200 196 205
30 6,000 7.4 192 194 194 201 199 207 203 212
8,o00 9.5 200 204 204 210 208 216 213 221
10.000 12.0 213 216 217 223 221 228 225 232
.2.000 2.8 191 195 196 206 202 212 208 218
4.O00 5.1 19S 200 200 209 206 217 212 222
50 6.000 7.4 202 207 -207 215 213 222 218 228
8.000 9.5 212 216 216 224 222 231 227 235
10,000 12.0 225 229 229 236 234 241 238 246
2.000 2.8 220 224 225 232 230 238 234 242
4.000 5.1 223 228 228 235 233 241 238 246
70 6,000 7.4 228 233 233 240 238 246 242 250
8,000. 9.5 237 240 241 247 245 252 249 256
10,0DO 12.0 247 250 251 256 254 262 258 266
ALT = Attitude 0
GVW = Gross Vehicle Weight = 2.1 tonnes
Table C5.8a: Buses: Brazil, Mercedes Benz 0362

Speed (km/hr)
Avwera Averae Averae Degreesof CurvatureClAwn)

Al. Suurfce
puw Roughness 100 300 50 70
Fa R _ _ _ __ _ _ . _
(mrln) (mm/kmr) (m/Alc Paved Unpaved Paved |Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 72.1 59.3 64.4 51.4 57.9 46.9 53.3 44.4
4,000 5.1 69.2 58.3 62.6 50.7 56.8 46.5 52.6 44.0
10 6,000 7.4 62.5 55.0 58.1 48.9 53.9 45.3 50.4 43.1
8W000 9.5 53.8 49.7 51.5 45.6 49.0 42.9 46.7 41.1
10.000 12.0 45.9 43.7 44.7 41.3 43.3 39.5 42.0 38.3
2,000 2.8 62.4 53.8 57.2 47.9 52.7 44.5 49.4 42.4
4.000 5.1 60.3 52.9 56.8 47.3 51.8 44.1 48.7 42.0
30 6,000 7.4 55.6 50.4 52.6 45.8 49.6 43.0 47.0 41.2
8.000 9.5 49.4 46.3 47.7 43.2 45.8 40.9 44.0 39.5
10.000 12.0 43.3 41.6 42.4 39.6 41.3 38.1 40.2 37.0
2,000 2.8 50.6 45.8 47.8 42.2 45.2 39.9 43.1 38.5
4,000 5.1 49.5 45.2 47.0 41.2 44.6 39.6 42.7 38.2
S0 6,000 7.4 46.8 43.6 45.0 40.7 43.1 38.8 41.5 37.5
8.000 9.5 43.0 41.0 41.9 38.9 40.6 37.3 39.5 36.3
10W000 12.0 38.9 37.7 38.3 36.3 37.5 35.2 36.7 34.4
2,000 2.8 40.2 38.1 39.0 36.1 37.8 34.8 36.7 33.9
4.000 5.1 39.7 37.8 38.6 35.9 37.4 34.6 36.4 33.7
70 6.000 7.4 38.5 36.9 37.6 35.2 36.6 34.0 35.7 33.2
8.000. 9.5 36.5 35.4 35.9 34.1 35.2 33.1 34.4 32.4
10,000 12.0 34.1 33.3 33.7 32.4 33.2 31.6 32.7 31.1
t~~~~M.~_
ALT = Altitude = 0
VW 2 Gross Vehile Weight (W + LD) 11 tonneq
Table C5.8b: Buses: Brazil, Mercedes Benz 0362

Fuel Consumption (Z/103 km)
Average Aver Average Degreesof CurvatureCI/bn)

Rise Surface
Fai
(mlkm) (mm/lkn) (ml/kn Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 268 250 255 247 249 248 247 249
4,000 5.1 269 255 260 253 254 254 253 255
10 6,000 7.4 266 260 262 259 259 260 259 262
8.000 9.5 265 265 265 266 265 268 266 270
10o000 12.0 272 274 273 276 274 279 275 281
2,000 2.8 284 281 281 283 281 286 283 288
4.000 S.1 287 286 286 288 286 291 287 293
30 6.000 7.4 290 291 291 294 292 297 293 298
8.000 9.5 296 298 297 301 299 304 300 306
10.000 12.0 306 308 307 310 308 313 310 315
2,000 2.8 362 383 363 364 363 365 364 365
4.000 5.1 366 367 366 368 367 368 367 369
so 6.000 7.4 370 371 370 372 371 372 371 373
8,000 9.5 374 375 375 376 375 37 376 377
10,000 12.0 379 380 380 381 380 382 380 384
2.000 2.8 464 465 465 466 465 467 466 468
4.000 5.1 468 469 469 470 489 471 470 471
70 6.000 7.4 472 473 473 474 473 475 474 475
8.o00. 9.5 477 478 477 478 478 479 478 479
10,000 12.0 482 482 482 483 483 484 483 484
Nf:
ALT = Altitude = 0
Table C5.9a: Medlum Trucks: Kenya, Bedford J4LC5

Speed (km/hr)
A%ereg Amsrge Avwrag Degreesof cur'vatureaCllae)
-u Rougi_e. 100 300 m0 roo

Pmft _______
(mukr) (mm/Ikn) (mAImnPaved Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved
2.000 2.8 59. 54 1 48.1 41.9 36.5 29.6 22.6 17.3

4,000 5.1 62.9 40.7 28.4 16.1
10 6,W0 7.4 51.7 39.5 27.2 *
6.000 9.5 50.5 38.3 26.0
1_.00 12.0 49.3 37.1 24.8 0
2,O0 2.8 53.7 49.0 41.6 36.5 29.6 23.8 16.8 *

4,W0 5.1 47.8 35.3 22.5 *
30 6,000 7.4 46.6 34.1 21.2
8,C00 9.5 45.4 32.8 19.9 *
10.000 12.0 44.1 31.6 16.6
2.000 2.6 46.3 43.0 33.6 29.8 19.9 15.6

4,000 5.1 41.7 28.5
50 6,000 7.4 40.4 27.1 * *
8,600 9.5 39.2 25.8 * *
10,0W0 12.0 37.9 24.4
2,000 2.6 37.0 35.6 22.6 21.1

4.000 5.1 34.3 19.5 *
70 6,000 7.4 32.9 16.0 *
8,000. 9.5 31.5 16.3 *
10.w0 12.0 30.1 a *
A = Altitude In paved equation = 0

U = Msture content = 2.6%
*Indicates a predicted spod below 15 km/h.
Table C5.9b: Medium Trucks: Kenya, Bedford J4LC5

Fuel Consumption (Q/10 3 km)
0
Average Average Average Degrees of CurvatureC /krn)
Rise Surface
Fas 81 IRI
tmlkm) (mm/km) tr/kin) Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 191 176

4,000 5.1 193 178
10 6.000 7.4 194 181
8,000 9.5 196 183
10,000 12.0 198 186
2.000 2.8 208 196

4,000 5.1 210 199
30 6,000 7.4 212 202
8,000 9.5 214 205
10.000 12.0 216 208
2.000 2.8 227 220

4,000 5.1 229 224
50 6,000 7.4 232 227
8,000 9.5 234 231
10,000 12.0 236 235
2000 2.8 249 2

4.000 5.1 248 258
70 6,000 7.4 2.4258
8,00 9.5 2527
10.000 12.0 2r1 281
Notes: L = Depth of Loose Material = 1mm.

PW = Power to Weight Ratio = 10 bhp/tonne.
Table C5.10a: Medium Trucks: Caribbean,Ford DlOD10

Speed (km/hr)
Average Average Average Degree. of CurvatureCO/lkm)

Rime Surface
plus Roughness 1C 300 500 700
FaS B R
(m/lkM) (mm/km) (m/ln) Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 51.5 48.1 44.7 41.3

4,0o00 5.1 49.3 45.9 42.5 39.1
10 6.000 7.4 47.1 43.7, 40.3 36.9
8,000 9.5 44.9 41.5 38.1 34.7
10.000 12.0 42.7 39.3 35.9 32.5
2.000 2.8 48.0 44.6 41.2 37.8

4,000 5.1 45.8 42.4 39.0 35.6
30 6,00 7.4 43.6 40.2 36.8 33.4
8,000 9.5 41.4 38.0 34.6 31.2
10.000 12.0 39.2 35.8 32.4 29.0
2.000 2.8 44.5 41.1 37.6 34.2

4,000 5.1 42.3 38.8 35.4 32.0
50 6,000 7.4 40.0 36.6 33.2 29.8
8.000 9.5 37.8 34.4 31.0 27.6
.0,000 12.0 35.6 32.2 28.8 25.4
2,000 2.8
.0 . 40.9 37.4 34.0 30.6
70 6,000 7.4 38.6 35.2 31.8 28.3
8,0QO 7.4 36.4 33.0 29.6 26.1
10.000 12.0 34.2 30.8 27.3 23.9
10,WO_ 12.0 32.0 28.5 25.1 21.6
NoteS:
PW = Power to weight ratio 9.3 Bhp/tonne.

Table C5.1Ob: Medlum Trucks: Caribbean, Ford DlOD10

Average Average Average Degrees of Curvature(I/luml

Rlse Surface
Fall _1 IR
(mn/im) (mm/Ian) Cm/kin) Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved
2.000 2.8 196 191 188 186

4,000 S.1 193 189 187 185
10 6.000 7.4 190 187 186 185
8.000 9.5 188 186 185 186
10.000 12.0 187 185 186 188
2.000 2.8 302 299 297 296

4,000 5.1 300 297 296 297
30 6.000 7.4 298 297 296 298
8.000 9.5 297 296 297 300
10,000 12.0 296 297 299 303
2.000 2.8 416 414 413 414

4,000 5.1 414 413 414 416
50 6.000 7.4 413 413 415 419
I8.000 9.5 413 414 417 422
10.000 12.0 413 416 420 428
2,000 2.8
4.000 5.1 537 540
70 6~,g000 S. 1 536 537 539
4 544
4
70 6.000 7.4 56S
8,000 9.5 536 538 542 549
10,000 12.0 S10 546 555
539 543 551 564
Notes: GVW Gross Vehicle Weight = 14 tonnes.

Table C5.11a: Medium Trucks: Brazil, Mercedes Benz L1113

Speed (km/hr)
Average Aversae Average Degrees of Curvaturs( 0 /kmn)

Rise Surface
Fail
(mlkm) (mm/kmn) (m/Ikml Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 64.4 56.0 57.9 48.4 52.8 44.6 49.1 42.4
4.000 S.1 60.3 53.7 55.2 47.2 51.0 43.7 47.8 41.6
10 6,000 7.4 53.0 48.9 49.9 44.2 47.0 41.5 44.7 39.8
8,000 9.5 45.1 42.9 43.4 40.0 41.8 38.2 40.3 37.0
10.000 12.0 38.2 37.1 37.4 35.5 36.5 34.3 35.6 33.5
2,000 2.8 53.6 48.4 49.5 43.3 46.3 40.7 43.8 39.0
4,000 5.1 50.9 46.7 47.7 42.3 44.9 40.0 42.8 38.4
30 6,000 7.4 46.1 43.4 44.1 40.2 42.1 38.2 40.5 37.0
8,000 9.5 40.7 39.1 39.5 37.0 38.3 35.6 37.2 34.7
10,000 12.0 35.6 34.7 34.9 33.4 34.2 32.5 33.6 31.9
2.000 2.8 42.9 39.9 40.6 36.9 38.7 35.2 37.2 34.2
4,000 5.1 41.4 38.9 39.5 36.2 37.8 34.7 36.5 33.7
50 6,000 7.4 38.5 36.8 -37.2 34.8 36.0 33.5 35.0 32.7
8.000 9.5 35.0 34.1 34.3 32.7 33.5 31.7 32.8 31.1
10,000 12.0 31.7 31.1 31.2 30.2 30.7 29.5 30.3 29.1
2,000 2.8 34.6 33.0 33.4 31.2 32.3 30.2 31.4 29.5
4,000 5.1 33.8 32.4 32.7 30.8 31.7 29.8 30.9 29.2
70 6,000 7.4 32.1 31.1 31.4 29.9 30.6 29.0 30.0 28.5
8,000 9.5 30.0 29.4 29.5 28.5 29.0 27.8 28.6 27.4
10,000 12.0 27.8 27.4 27.5 26.7 27.1 26.3 26.8 26.0
Notes:
ALT = Attude = 0
QVW = Gross Vehkcl Weight (W + LD) = 14 tennes
Table C5.11b: Medium Trucks: Brazil, Mercedes Benz L1113

Fuel Consumption (t/lO3 km)
Average Aversge Average Degrees of Curvature(/kmn)

Rise Surface
Fall -
(m/kin) (mm/km) (m/km) Paved Unpaved Paved | Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved
2.000 2.8 345 333 335 332 331 335 332 338
4.000 5.1 347 341 341 341 340 344 341 347
10 6,000 7.4 348 349 348 352 349 356 351 359
8.000 9.5 359 362 361 367 363 371 366 374
10.000 12.0 379 382 381 387 384 391 386 394
2.000 2.8 402 405 404 410 407 415 410 418
4.000 5.1 409 412 411 418 414 423 417 426
30 6.000 7.4 419 423 422 428 425 432 428 435
8.000 9.5 434 437 436 442 438 445 441 448
10.000 12.0 452 455 454 459 456 462 458 465
2,000 2.8 537 540 540 544 542 546 543 548
4,000 5.1 544 547 546 550 548 553 550 555
50 6,000 7.4 552 554 -554 558 556 561 558 563
8,000 9.5 563 565 564 568 566 571 568 573
10.000 12.0 577 578 578 581 579 584 581 585
2,000 2.8 683 696 695 700 698 702 699 704
4.000 5.1 700 703 702 706 704 708 706 710
70 6,000 7.4 708 710 710 713 712 715 713 716
8.000 9.5 718 720 719 722 720 723 722 724
10.000 12.0 729 730 729 730 730 731 730 732
Notes:
ALT = Altitude = 0
Table C5.12a: Medium Trucks: India, Tata 1210 SE/42

Speed (km/hr)
Average Average Average Degrees of Curvature(/kml)

Rise Surface .
plus Roughness 100 300 so0 7G0
FaH Bl IRI
(m/kmi) (mm/km) (m/kin) Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 47.3 45.3 43.3 41.3
4,000 S.1 43.5 41.5 39.5 37.5
10 6.000 7.4 39.7 37.7 35.7 33.7
8.000 9.5 35.9 33.9 31.8 29.9
10.000 12.0 32.1 30.1 28.1 26.1
2.000 2.8 41.9 39.9 38.0 36.0

4,000 5.1 38.1 36.1 34.2 32.3
30 6,000 7.4 34.3 32.3 30.4 28.4
8,00 9.5 30.5 28.5 26.6 24.6
10,000 12.0 26.7 24.7 22.8 20.8
2.00o 2.8 36.6 34.6 32.6 30.6

4.000 5.1 32.8 30.8 28.8 26.8
50 6,000 7.4 29.0 27.0 25.0 23.0
8.000 9.5 25.2 z3.2 21.2 19.2
10,000 12.0 252 2. 2.2 12
__________ 21,4 19.4 17.4 15.4
2,000 2.8
4,000 5.1 31.2 29.3 27.3 25.3
70 6.000 7.4 27.4 25.5 23.5 21.5
8,o00 9.5 23.6 21.7 19.7 17.7
10,000 12.0 19.8 17.9 15.9 *
_______ _________________ 16.0 * * *
Notes:
W = Width = 7 m.
*Indicates a predicted speed below 15 km/h.
Table C5.12b: Medium Trucks: India, Tata 1210 SE/42

Average Average Average Degrees of Curvature(°/km)

Rise Surface
Fan Bl IRI
(rn/kin) (mm/knn) (mr/kn) Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 212 212 212 213

4,000 51 215 216 218 221
10 6.Ow 7.4 221 224 227 232
8.000 9.5 230 235 240 248
10,000 12.0 243 250 259 270
2,000 2.8 233 235 237 241

4,000 5.1 240 243 248 254
30 6,000 7.4 251 256 263 272
8.000 9.5 266 274 285 297
10,000 12.0 287 299 315 334
2.000 2.8 260 264 269 276

4,000 5.1 272 279 287 297
50 6,000 7.4 289 299 311 326
8.000 9.5 313 328 346 369
10,000 12.0 348 370 398 434
2,000 2.8 294 302 312 324

4,000 5.1 314 326 340 358
70 6,000 7.4 342 359 381 408
8,000 9.5 382 409 443 487
10,000 12.0 443 486 544__
Notes: PW = Power to weight ratio 10 kw/tonne.

Table C5.13a: Articulated Trucks: Brazil, Scania 110/39

Two Axle Tractor with TrI-Axle Semi-Trailer
Speed (km/hr)
Average Average Averge Degrees of Curvature( 0/kn)

Rise Surface _
plus Roughness 100 300 SW 700
Fall _
(mr/km) (mm/kin) (m/krn Paved Unpaved Paved |Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 C2.4 45.3 53.7 40.8 48.2 38.7 44.7 37.6
4,000 5. 1 56.2 43.9 50.7 39.9 46.3 38.1 43.4 37.1
t0 6,000 7.4 45.7 40.0 43.6 37.3 41.4 36.0 39.6 35.2
8.000 9.5 36.5 34.4 35.8 33.0 35.0 32.3 34.2 31.8
10,000 12.0 29.9 29.0 29.6 28.5 29.3 28.1 29.0 27.9
2,000 2.8 45.5 37.6 41.6 35.2 39.0 34.0 37.3 33.4
4.000 5.1 42.5 36.7 40.0 34.6 37.9 33.5 36.4 32.9
30 6.000 7.4 37.4 34.5 36.4 32.9 35.2 32.1 34.3 31.6
8.000 9.5 32.3 31.0 30.1 31.3 29.6 30.8 30.8 29.3
10,000 12.0 27.8 27.2 27.6 26.8 27.4 26.5 27.1 26.3
2.000 2.8 34.3 30.3 32.4 29.0 31.1 28.3 30.1 28.0
4.000 5.1 32.9 29.8 31.6 28.6 30.4 28.0 29.6 27.6
50 6.000 7.4 30.1 28.5 -29.5 27.6 28.9 27.1 28.3 26.8
8.000 9.5 27.2 26.4 26.9 25.9 26.6 25.6 26.3 25.4
10,000 12.0 24.4 24.0 24.3 23.8 24.2 23.6 24.0 23.5
2,000 2.8 26.6 24.8 25.9 24.1 25.2 23.7 24.7 23.5
4,000 5.1 26.0 24.5 25.5 23.8 25.0 23.5 24.4 23.3
70 6.000 7.4 24.7 23.7 24.4 23.2 24.0 22.9 23.7 22.8
8,000. 9.5 23.0 22.5 22.8 22.1 22.6 21.9 22.4 21.8
10,000 12.0 21.2 21,0 21.1 20.7 21.0 20.6 20.9 20.6
Notes:
ALT = Altitude = 0
GVW=a.ro Vehkb Weight (W + LD) = 40 tonnes.
Table C5.13b: Articulated Trucks: Brazil, Scania 110/39

Two Axle Tractor with TrI-Axle Semi-Trailer
3
Average Averge Average Degrees of Curvature(°ktn)

Rise Surface
Fanl
(mlakm) (mm/lkn) (m/kMt Paved Unpaved Paved |Unpaved Paved Unpaved Paved Unpaved
2,000 2.8 628 640 628 652 635 659 641 664
4.000 5.1 650 665 653 676 659 683 666 687
10 6,000 7.4 682 697 687 707 693 713 698 717
8,000 9.5 732 742 735 750 739 754 743 757
10.000 12.0 792 799 794 804 797 807 800 809
2,000 2.8 835 841 838 841 840 841 841 842
4,000 5.1 849 853 851 853 853 855 853 856
30 6,000 7.4 865 866 865 869 866 871 867 872
8.000 9.5 884 889 886 892 887 894 8SS 895
10,000 12.0 918 922 919 925 921 926 922 928
2,000 2.8 1197 1203 1200 1205 1202 1206 1203 1207
4,000 5.1 1212 1216 1214 1218 1215 1219 1217 1220
50 6,000 7.4 1229 1232 1229 1233 1231 1234 1231 1234
8,000 9.5 1246 1248 1247 1249 1247 1250 1248 1250
10,000 12.0 1265 1266 1265 1267 1266 1267 1266 1267
2.000 2.8 1564 1568 1565 1570 1567 1571 1568 1571
4.000 5.1 1578 1581 1579 1583 1581 1584 1582 1585
70 6,000 7.4 1594 1596 1595 1598 1595 1598 1596 1599
8,000. 9.5 1611 1612 1612 1613 1612 1614 1613 1614
10,000 12.0 1629 1630 1629 1630 1630 1631 1630 1631
Notes:
ALT = Attitude = 0
I I I I
CHAPTER 6
Tire Costs
Tire costs are an Important element of vehicle operating costs,

particularly in developing countries, and they are sensitive to highway
conditions. In consequence, in the four user surveys considerable effort
was devoted to obtaining tire cost data. The difficulties encountered when
collecting these data and the methods adopted in the four studies are the
subject of Section 6.1. The statistical methods used to analyze the data
are considered in Section 6.2 while in Sections 6.3 and 6.4 the results
obtained concerning car tires and bus and truck tires are presented. The
final Section 6.5 summarizes this chapter and presents brief comparisons
with other sources. The remainder of this section Is devoted to a number
of general Issues that arise when tire costs are considered.
Like fuel and oil, tires are consumed continuously as vehicles

travel. Each kilometer travelled results in material being removed from
the tire and, if for no other reason, tires will eventually wear out from
this type of abrasive wear. In addition, like the vehicle itself, tires
are stressed and strained as they travel so that, as time passes, the
tire's carcass Is also weakened. When the rubber tread of the tire Is worn
through, or nearly so, It may be optimal to recap the tire provided that
Its carcass is still in serviceable condition and we would naturally expect
this practice to be more prevalent when tires are expensive and carcasses
robustly built as are the tires found on large trucks. Evidence from the
Brazilian study suggests that numbers of recaps performed per tire is
around two times higher for heavy trucks using 1100 x 22 tires than for
lighter trucks using 900 x 20 tires. Whether or not recapping occurs at
any point in a tire's life depends upon the cost of recapping and on the
expected lifetime of the tire subsequent to recapping. As the tire ages
and the carcass weakens recapping ceases to be optimal and the tire Is
scrapped.
The Incidence of tire failure and the rate of tread loss are much
greater In developing countries than In the majority of developed nations.
This is partly because of the prevalence of relatively low quality tires.
Mainly though it Is because travel on poor quality roads, often unpaved,
causes Increased carcass stress and ablative tread wear and accelerates
normal tread loss. Increased Incidence of overloading causes greater
carcass flexing and increases the risk of premature failure particularly
for tires placed on drive axles. And where ambient temperatures are high,
tires overheat and are more likely to blowout or strip thelr tread.
Vehicle owners operating on unpaved routes cannot generally use steel
braced radial tires because of risk of side wall damage and owners
operating vehicles on paved routes are in many countries unable to purchase
such tires due to import restrictions and the absence of such tires In the
product range of Indigenous manufacturers. Steel braced radial tires were
193
194 TIRE COSTS
not available In Brazil or India during the periods In which user surveys
were performed, despite the sizes of the tire markets in these countries.
Truck and bus owners in Industrialized nations can expect tire

lives In excess of 100,000 kilometers but in developing countries it Is
common to find only half this figure being achieved on paved routes and one
third or less on unpaved routes. Consequently, many vehicle owners in
developing countries make strenuous efforts to prolong tIre life.
Recapping or retreading is one way In which tire life can be prolonged, and
this is a common practice in developing countrles encountered In all the
user surveys. Often a tire will pass through several "lives," belng
successively recapped, and the number of recaps performable and the
kilometerages obtained with each recap will depend upon many factors
Including vehicle load and speed, highway characteristics and driver
behaviour. The first "life" of the tire from new to first recap Is
typically the longest In terms of kilometers travelled, successive recaps
yielding declining kilometerage. Some indication of tire lives in
kilometers as a tire passes through successive retreads Is given in Table
6.1 which Is based on Information obtained from one large Indian
organisation.
Tread wear may not vary significantly between new and properly
recapped tires on certain vehicle axles. Ker and Soloman (1976) measured
tread loss on a sample of line haul and dump truck operations In New South
Wales, Australia, and found littie difference between new and recap tire
tread wear rates on all trailing axles or on tandem drive axles where the
total suspension load did not exceed 14 tonnes, 1.7 tonnes per tire. The
lower kilometerage for recap "lives" observed In the Indian study may
reflect Increasing Incidence of carcass fallure on successive recaps and
Increased recap tread loss due to ablative wear or lifting as a result of
accelerative forces on driven axles. On occasions, particularly in bus
operations where safety considerations are especially Important, owners
will sell tires before first recapping or second recapping. More commonly
though tires are retained until scrapping. In large organisations tires
may be recapped "in house" but otherwlse recapping will be performed by
specialist tire workshops.
There are considerable across company differences in tire costs.

These arise because of differences in types of tires used, and because of
differences In the Incidence of recapping which reflects differences in
types of business and variations In the marginal cost of recapping.
Daniels (1974) draws attention to wide ranges of estimates of tire

lives obtained from vehicle operators In service, and the results obtained
In the Indian and Brazilian surveys suggest that these differences are real
and substantial. Accordingly, In the analysis of these surveys' data sets
particular attention was paid to company policy influences and to obtaining
estimates of the effects of highway characteristics on tire costs that are
not unduly Influenced by across company variation In tire costs
attributable to company policy differences.
The equations presented below in Sections 6.3 and 6.4 are very
simple, relating tire costs or some straightforward transformation of this
TIRE COSTS 195
Table 6.1: Average Kilometers Run by New and Recapped Tires
State In Tire Life Average Kilometers Run Number of Tires Sampled
New-Retread 1 1/ 32,916 26,256
Recap 1 - Recap 2 1/ 21,515 17,533
Recap 2 - Recap 3 1/ 20,853 6,962
Recap 3 - Recap 4 '/ 18,191 1,896
Recap 4 - Recap 5 1/ 10,364 146
Source: RUCS Technical Paper 63, CRRI indla.

Note: Sample based on tire pool of one large state organisatlon.
1/ Or Scrapping.
variable to linear functions of highway characteristics, specifically road

roughness, average route rise + fall and average degrees of curvature. The
equations pick up most of the features of the data sets.
None of the surveys reported here use detailed theoretical models

for tire costs as the basis for their analysis. There are models available
for the relationship between tread wear and road roughness and geometry
(see e.g., Bergman and Crum (1973), Sullivan (1977) and Zanlewskl et al.
(1981) but, as noted above, tread wear Is only one aspect of tire life,
carcass deterioration being as, If not more, important In developing
countries since It limits owners' ability to recap. In addition these
models do not consider complete tire failure caused by blowouts or ablative
tire wear. And models constructed on purely Dhysical principles tend to
overstate tread wear unless they are used very carefully, for vehicle
owners will adopt tire policies to reduce tire costs In precisely those
situations In which tire life Is predicted to be especially short.
Watanatada et al. (1987) report attempts to analyze the Brazilian

user survey data using a model that exploits the Idea from Delia Moretta
and Sullivan (1976), that tire wear Is a function of tangential energy,
proportional to slip energy. Tangential energy is the ratio of squared
tangential force per tire to gross vehicle weight per tire, and In Its
calculation, forces operating in the circumferential and lateral directions
of the tire play equally Important roles. A purely empirical carcass life
model has also been incorporated. The models available at the time of
writing are not entirely satisfactory, partlcularly so far as the modelling
of the effect of curvature is concerned. The difficulties In estimation of
a micro-level model built upon fundamental physical principles using user
survey data are of course enormous. Detailed Information on road vertical
and horizontal alignment, abrasive properties of the road surface, vehicle
loads and load distribution, tire Inflation, tire constructlon and rubber
properties, and assoclated tire wear are required, and user survey data do
196 TIRE COSTS
not contain this Information. Sufficiently detailed Information might be

obtained from controlled experiments, but it would be difficult to design
experiments which captured the Important effects that are due to driver
behaviour and that arise from vehicle owners desires to avoid excessive
tire costs.
Here we report the results of analysis that acknowledge the

Informatlon content of the available user survey data. These take the form
of relationships between the tire costs actually experienced by vehicle
owners and the broad, aggregate measures of highway quality that were
obtained In the road user surveys. In the next two sections we describe
the collection and analysis of tire cost data.
6.1 TIRE COST DATA
The quality of tire cost records varies considerably from company

to company. Small organisations rarely adopt formal tire record systems
and collecting data from such organisations Is difficult. In large
organisations tire control systems are more common and in the Brazilian
survey these were exploited as data sources where possible. In large
organisations It Is common to find vehicle owners operating a tire pool
system in which tires switch from vehicle to vehicle, the system being
controlled using documentation that tracks the performance of each tire In
the pool.
Tire pools were so prevalent in the companies surveyed in the

Brazilian study that the Brazilian tire cost data were collected on an
individual tire basis, each tire's history from new to sale or scrapping
being recorded. Total kliometerage travelled on each vehicle was obtained
together with total kilometerage between each recapping. The Kenyan,
Caribbean, and Indian studies collected tire cost data quite differently,
focussing on Individual vehicles rather than Individual tires, essentially
counting the number of tires used by survey vehicles during the survey
period and relating this to the kilometerage travelled by the vehicles.
Both approaches present their own special difficulties.
The technique used in the Brazilian study requires quite

sophisticated record keeping and the Brazilian research team devoted much
effort to designing documentation tailored to Individual companies'
operations. For each surveyed tire, every change of vehicle from the
tire's first use to sale or scrapping was recorded and highway
characteristics experienced by the tire were built up as kilometer weighted
averages of highway characteristics experienced by the vehicles on which
the tire was placed. For each tire total kilometers travelled from new to
scrapping (TK) was recorded together with total number of recaps performed
(NR). The total cost per tire Is PN PTN *] where PN Is the price of
a new tire and PR Is the cost of recapping a tire. The dependent variable
for the statistical analysis of the Brazilian data Is TC - TK/(1 + NR/6.6)
to be Interpreted as kilometers per equivalent new tire, the ratio of the
cost of recapping to the price of a new tire being approximately 1/6.6.
Tire costs per kilometer are given by PN/TC and tire costs per kilometer
per vehicle are given by PN.NT/TC where NT Is number of tires per vehicle.
TIRE COSTS 197
In the Kenyan and Caribbean studies, the number and type of tires
used by vehicles during the survey period were recorded. Since rather few
tire scrappings were observed during the survey period, particularly in the
Caribbean study where utilisation was relatively low, data collection was
extended to cover replacement of at least as many tires as vehicles had
wheels so that, say, for cars the lives of four or more tires would be used
to produce the dependent variable for analysis while for trucks six or more
tires would used. Tires fitted as used tires were not Included In the data
In the Kenyan and Caribbean studies. Using Information on numbers of
recaps, the number of equivalent new tires consumed was calculated on a
price weighted basis for each vehicle. The dependent variable in the
statistical analysis Is the number of equivalent new tires consumed per
kilometer per vehicle.
The Kenyan car tire data were derived from Information on 63

vehicles, the bus and truck tire data from 183 vehicles. Both data sets
were averaged so that In the statistical analysis only 6 car and 10 bus and
truck average tire consumptions are used. The Caribbean study's tire data
were derived from Information on 21 cars and light goods vehicles and 19
trucks. Here there was no averaging prior to analysis.
In the Indian survey a detailed study was made of tire costs.

Some of the results not available In CRRI (1982) can be found in Kadayail
et al. (1981), Lakshmikanthan et al. (1980), and Kadayall et al. (1982).
The research began with an investigation Into the differences In tire lives
for tires of different brands and for tires made from different materials
(rayon or nylon) using data from a single large state owned organisatlon.
No significant differences were found and henceforth all tires were treated
similarly.
In the Indian study tire consumption was recorded by vehicle as In

the Kenyan and Caribbean studies. In order to avoid the difficulties that
arise when tire pool systems are In operation, the Indian survey team
encouraged vehicle owners to maintain tires on survey vehicles from new to
scrapping. This Is not normal practice and It was soon discovered that new
and used tires were being substituted for tires that were damaged or
required attention. Eventually It was decided to record tire consumption
over the period In terms of numbers of new tires fitted (AN), numbers of
used tires fitted (AU) and numbers of recapped tires fitted (AR). Using
two years data on a large number of tires owned by a large state
organisation, the Indian team derived conversion factors relating life (in
kilometers) of used and recapped tires to life of new tires. Specifically
they report that used tires have life approximately equal to 0.425 times
the life of a new tire, the corresponding figure for recapped tires being
0.5. A vehicle receiving AN new tires, AU used tires and AR recapped tires
during the survey period was recorded as having tire consumption equal to
ET - AN + 0.425 AU + O.SAR "equivalent new tires," and, with the vehicle
travelling K kilometers during the survey period, the dependent variable in
the statistical analysis, "tire life" Is defined as TL - NT.K/ET where NT
Is the number of wheels on the vehicle.
The interpretation of the variable TL presents a number of

difficultles. The first arises with the method of counting the number of
tires fitted, which may present problems because of double counting.
Unless all used tires are bought In as used, some new tires must be removed
198 TIRE COSTS
from survey vehicles before they have run their full lives. Then some new
tires given a weight of 1.0 In the calculation of ET, "equivalentnew
tires," should be given a lower weight. In discussions with L. R.
Kadayall, the Director of the Indian Road User Survey, we were Informed
that rather few used tires were fitted to survey vehicles so perhaps this
double counting can be Ignored.
The major problem with the Indian study dependent variable TL is

that It does not bear directlyon tire costs and it Is not at all obvious
how tire costs can be obtained from the variable TL which might be
Interpretedas life of an equivalentnew tire. Notice that ET is not the
equivalentnew tire definition used in the other studies since it is a
kilometer weighted rather than a price weighted count of tires consumed. A
correct treatment of used and recapped tires on a price welghted basis
requires calculation of AN- AS S+ + AR P where AS i the
number of new tires removed prior to first recap, PS Is the value per tire
of such tires and PU is the price per tire of used tires. Ignoringused
tires for now, we see that If PR/PN - 0.5 then the variable TL, constructed
in the Indian study, can be interpreted as kilometersper equivalent new
tire on a price weighted basis. In fact PR/PN Is likely to be somewhat
less than this so that direct use of TL is likely to lead to over statement
of tire costs. To allow for this Kadayall et al. (1982) give a correction
factor obtained using data from all survey vehicles which reduces tire
costs predicted using TL by around 30 percent. These problems with the
Indian study's definitlonof the dependent variable in the tire analysis
suggest that the Indian study equations may be somewhat unreliable in
determining the level of tire costs. However, It Is likely that
differentials In tire costs due to differences In highway characteristics
are picked up reasonablyaccuratelyby these equations.
6.2 ESTIMATIONOF TIRE COST EQUATIONS
Except In the case of the Brazilian study, the dependent varlable

In the tire cost analyses is an average of tire lives, an average taken per
vehicle (or group of vehicles In the Kenyan study) over tires used by the
vehicle during the user survey period. In the Brazille study the
dependent variable Is essentially kilometers travelled per .ire, each
observation relating to a single tire. One result of this Is that reported
goodness of fit statistics vary very considerably from study to study,
there being of necessity more residual variation In Individualtire lives
than In average tire lives.
Table 6.2 shows the effect that averaging has on R2 statistics, in

the simple case in which, In each group over which averaging occurs,
explanatory variables take Identicalvalues. Table 6.2 gives values of R2
catculated from data which are averages of n observationsfor alternative
choices of R2 (1) and n. An R2 statisticof 0.81 obtained using data which
are averages of 10 tire lives is equivalent,under the conditions assumed,
to an R2 statistic of only 0.3 obtained using Individualtire data. This
effect Is lessened If tires grouped together do not travel over Identical
highways. However, in practIce the sorts of effects evident In Table 6.2
will be found since tires grouped together for analysis In the Kenyan,
TIRE COSTS 199
Table 6.2: Values of Goodness of Fit Statistics (R2 (n)) Obtained Using
Averages of Groups of n Observations from Raw Data In Which
Value of R2 is R2 (1)
R2 (1) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9

n
5 .36 .68 .83 .92 .98

10 .53 .81 .91 .96 .99
25 .74 .91 .96 .98 1
100 .92 .98 .99 1 1
Caribbean, and Indian studies do generally travel similar highways, If only

because they are grouped together because they operate on particular
vehicles, and user survey vehicles are normally chosen precisely because
they tend to maintain operations over fixed unchanging routes during the
survey period.
The explanatory variabies In the tire analyses are vehicle and

highway characteristics, the latter being averages of highway
characteristics experienced by vehicles (tires In the Brazilian survey)
over the survey period. This averaging of highway characteristics
experienced on a day-to-day basis generally tends to dampen any non
linearitles present In equations relating tire wear to highway
characteristics so that we observe close to linear, well behaved
relationships between tire consumption and highway characteristics In user
survey data sets. In practice, for all but the smallest scale highway
improvements, routes contain a spread of highway characteristics so that
the sorts of relationships observed in road user surveys may not be too far
removed from those found In practical applIcations.
As noted at the beginning of this chapter, we can expect quite

considerable across company differences In tire lives due to the effects of
company policy differences and due to across company variation In type of
business. In the Indian and Brazilian studies this has lead to the use of
estimatlon procedures that allow for the presence of company specific
disturbances In the equations relating tire consumption to highway and
vehicle characteristics. In the Brazilian study there was evidence that
these company effects were correlated with highway characteristics so that
ordinary or generalized least squares procedures appiled to the data might
lead to biased estimators of the effects of the explanatory variables.
This was In part due to the rather small number of companies contrlbuting
data to the Brazilian user survey tIre data set. In the Indian study a
larger number of companies are represented In the tire data set and they
are better disposed over highway types. In the analysis of the Indlan
study tire data It was reasonable to regard company effects as Independent
of highway characteristics and therefore possible to use the generalized
least squares estimation procedure in the context of the error components
model set out in Chapter 2. In the Brazilian study, estimates were
200 TIRE COSTS
obtained by allowing each company to generate a separate Intercept In the

fitted equations utilising the fixed effect model outlined In Chapter 2.
The Kenyan and Caribbean analyses did not allow for across company
differences In tire consumption.
In order to predict tire costs using the Brazilian and Indian

studies' results, It Is necessary to divide the price of a new tire by a
prediction of kilometers per equivalent new tire. If our predictions of
kilometers per equivalent new tire are unbiased then the corresponding tire
cost predictions will be biased downwards because of the convexity of the
tire cost function. Calculations with the Indian data suggest that the
required correction Is of the order of 5 percent, that Is that predicted
tire costs should be multiplied by about 1.05 In order to approximately
remove the blas Induced by Inverting an unbiased estimate of kilometers per
equivalent new tire. For the Brazilian data the required correction Is of
the order of 20 percent, a larger correction because of the greater
dispersion In the Brazilian data In which data were not averaged prior to
analysis. In reporting the predictions of Indian and Brazilian tire costs
these correctlons have been applied but It must be recognised that they are
approximate.
8.3 TIRE CONSUMPTION: CARS AND LIGHT GOODS VEHICLES
Results reported In the Brazilian and Indian surveys relate to

crossply tires. Most of the tires used during the Kenyan study were
Imported radial tires though soon after the end of the survey the Kenyan
government banned Importation of tires as local manufacturers became
established. In the Caribbean study both radial and crossply tires were
observed, many vehicles operating with radials and crossplys mixed. In all
four surveys sample sizes are relatively small compared to those relating
to bus and truck tires and, as noted In Section 6.2, the number of data
points available varies considerably from one study to another in part
because of averaging of data prior to analysis.
In the Indian and Brazilian surveys the dependent variable for the
purpose of estimation Is kilometers per equivalent new tire, data being
recorded per tire In the Brazilian study and per vehicle In the Indian
study. The discussion of the Indian data In Section 6.1 Is relevant here.
In the Kenyan and Caribbean surveys, the dependent variable for the
purposes of estimation was equlvalent new tires per kilometer per vehicle,
data being recorded per vehicle In the Caribbean survey and by groups of
vehicles in the Kenyan survey. In this and the subsequent section the
dependent varlable for reporting Is T, equivalent new tires (calculated on
a price weighted basis) per 103 kilometers per vehicle from which tire
costs per 103 km per vehicle are obtained by multiplying T by the cost of a
new tire. The factor of .727 (see the appendix to this chapter)
recommended In CRRI (1982) has been used to correct the Indian equation to
a tire cost expression. Because of the different functional forms used In
analysis of the survey data the studies' equations predict rather
differently, the Kenyan and Caribbean studies giving tire costs Increasing
linearly with highway characteristics, the Indian and Brazilian equations
predicting greater and greater Increases In costs as rougher and rougher
routes are encountered.
TIRE COSTS 201
Equations are reported In Table 6.3 and graphed In Figure 6.1.

Predicted tire consumptions are given In Tables 6.4 and 6.5. Equations as
originally reported, together with available summary statistics are given
in the following appendix. The Brazilian results relate to car tires. A
sample of around 60 utilities tires gives the relationship: T - 1/(17.4 -
.0012R). For all but the Indian study the equations reported In the main
text are Identical to those originally reported In the studies once
allowance Is made for changes In units of measurement. In the Indian study
(CRRI 1982) two equations are reported, one relating tire consumptlon to
surface roughness, the other relating tire consumption to pavement width.
It Is not possible to obtain from the Indian data reliable estimates of the
effects of roughness and pavement width on car tire consumption when both
variables are included in the tire consumption equation. The pavement
width effects are not well understood and since we might expect surface
roughness effects to dominate, the surface roughness equation Is reported
here, after re-estimation by generalized least squares to allow for company
specific disturbances In the regression equation. In all four studies tire
consumption Is written as a function of surface roughness alone. The data
sets relating to car tire consumption are too small and cover
Insufficiently wide ranges of vertical and horizontal geometry to enable
reliable estimates of the effects of gradlent and curvature to be
estimated.
Inspecting Figure 6.1 we see that the Kenyan and Caribbean study
equations differ from those obtained In India and Brazil, predicting higher
tire consumption at most levels of roughness and greater increases In tire
consumption with Increases In roughness over the observed ranges of
roughness. The Caribbean equations predlctions are higher than those given
by the Brazilian and Indian equations by a factor of two or more depending
on the roughness level examined and are around 50 percent higher than the
Kenyan equations' predictions. Hide (1982) suggests that the differences
between the Kenyan and Caribbean studies' results might be attributable to
differences In tire types: the Kenyan vehicles ran on high quality
Michelin radial tires while the Caribbean vehicles used mixtures of radial
and crossply tires. The differences may also be due to the presence of
severely potholed paved roads In the Caribbean, with the differences In
profile Irregularity not being well discerned by the bump Integrator
Instrument used for measurement of roughness.
Table 6.3: Tire Consumption Equations: Cars
Study Equation
India T - 1/(19.66 - .00193R}

Brazil T - 1/(13.16 - .00129R)
Carlbbean T - -. 060 + .000076R
Kenya T - -. 083 + .000058R
202 TIRE COSTS
Flgure 6.1: Tire Consumption (T) versus Surface Roughness (R): Cars
0.7 T
0.6.
,C
/
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1 ....
| , , , , , , , ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~R,
BI
2000 4000 6000
2.8 51 7.4 R, IRI
Equations: B : Brazil C Carlbbean I : India K : Kenya

Units: T : Equivalent new tires per 103 km per vehicle.
R : Surface Roughness, Bi (mm/km), IRI(m/km).
Table 6.4: Tire Consumption Predictions: Cars
Study
Road Roughns _
EN IRI Brazil India Caribbean Kenya
(mm/lun) (rnkm)
2,000 2.8 .095 .063 _ -

2,5U0 3.4 .101 .067 _ .062
3,000 4.0 .108 .072 - .091
3,500 4.6 .115 .078 .206 .120
4,000 5.1 .125 .064 .244 .149
4,500 5.7 .136 .091 .282 .178
5,000 6.3 .149 .100 .320 .207
5,500 6.8 - .111 .358 .236
6.000 7.4 - .124 .396 .265
6,500 7.9 - .141 .434 .294
7,000 8.5 - .164 .472 .323 1
7,500 9.0 _ - .510 -
8,000 9.5 - .S48 _
_________________ i
TIRE COSTS 203
Table 6.5: Tire Consumption Predictions: Cars
Ratiosof EquivalentNew Tiresper tO3 km perVehicleon Road with Given

Roughnessto EquivalentNew Tires per tO3 km per Vehicle on Roadswith
Roughness Equal to 3,500 mm/km.
Study
RFoadRoughness
SI IRI Brazil India Caribbean Kenya I
(mm/kmn) (m/km)
2,000 2.8 .82 .81 _ -

2,500 3.4 .88 .86 _ .52
3,000 4.0 .94 .93 - .76
3,500 4.6 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
4,000 5.1 1.08 1.08 1.18 1.24
4,500 5.7 1.18 1.18 1.37 1.48
5,000 6.3 1.29 1.28 1.55 1.73
5,500 6.8 - 1.43 1.74 1.97
6,000 7.4 - 1.59 1.92 2.21
6,500 7.9 - 1.81 2.11 2.45
7,000 8.5 - 2.11 2.29 2.69
7,500 9.0 - - 2.48 _
8,000 9.5 - _ 2.66
The levels of the Brazilian and Indian car tire consumption

equations differ somewhat but their predictions concerning the effects of
changing roughness are quite similar as can be seen by inspecting Table
6.5. For example both the Brazilian and the Indian equations predict an 18
percent Increase In equivalent new tires per 103 km per vehicle (T) on
Increasing surface roughness from 3,500 to 4,500mm/km, while the Kenyan
equations predicts a 37 percent Increase and the Caribbean equation a 48
percent Increase. Both the indian and Brazilian equations are non-linear
In surface roughness though over the ranges of roughness observed (given
approxlmately by the extent of the plotted lines In Figure 6.1) the non-
linearity is not marked. On very rough routes the Brazilian and Indian
equations predict high tire consumptions so that extrapolation should be
undertaken with care. In the case of the Brazilian survey predicted tire
consumption Is unbounded once roughness exceeds 10,180mm/km, the
corresponding figure for the Indian survey being 10,170mm/km. Of course
these are extremely high figures for average roughness experienced by a car
over an extended period and In practice one is likely to find few
commercial car operations on routes this rough.
On routes of moderate roughness (3,500mm/km) the Brazilian and

Indian equations predict tire consumptlon of respectively .115 and.078
equivalent new tires per 103 km per vehicle. With no recapping this Is
204 TIRE COSTS
equivalent to Individual tire lives around 35,000km and 51,000km

respectively. On routes with roughness equal to 5,000mm/km the
corresponding tire life figures are 27,000km for Brazil and 40,000km for
India. The large differences In vehicle speeds between Brazil and India
could account for much of the differences In tire wear.
6.4 TIRE COSTS: BUSES AND TRUCKS
The data available on bus and truck tire consumption are more
extensive than those for car tires and the results obtained are
correspondingly more precise and Informative. In both the Brazilian and
Indian surveys It Is possible to find some reasonably well determined
effects for highway geometry as well as surface roughness. As In the car
tire analysis the Kenyan and Caribbean studies write equivalent new tires
per km as a linear functloh of roughness. For buses and trucks a
multiplicative factor In vehlcle weight Is Included. In the Indian and
Brazilian studies kilometers per equivalent new tire Is written as a linear
function of roughness.
As In the previous section the Brazilian and Indlan results relate

to crossply tires whereas the Kenyan study data mostly relate to radial
tires. In the Caribbean study mixtures of radial and crossply tires were
observed. The Kenyan and Caribbean studies report bus and truck tire
equations on a per vehicle basis, and the Indian and Brazillianstudies
report equations on a per tire basis. Thus, for reporting purposes the
Indian and Brazilian equations Include a term NT, number of tires per
vehicle. In the previous section concerning car tires NT - 4 was passed
through Into the coefficients.
The equations are given in Table 6.6 and graphed In Figures 6.2 -
6.5. Predictions are given In Tables 6.7 and 6.8. As before, only the
Indlan equation requires comment, the other equations given In Table 6.6
being Identical to those originally reported by the studies once allowance
Is made for changes In units of measurement. In CRRI (1982) separate
equations are reported for bus and truck tire consumption. The bus tire
equation has been re-estimated by generalized least squares allowing for
company specific disturbances In the regression equation. Geometry effects
not found In the CRRI (1982) analysis have been obtained. On re-estimating
the truck tire equation poor results were obtained, In part because truck
tire data exhibits little within company variation In highway geometry.
Roughness effects were found to be very similar for buses and trucks so the
bus tire equatlon has been used to predict truck tire consumption, the
Intercept being adjusted to reflect the slight overall differences In truck
tire consumptlon. Further details are given In the appendix.
In the Brazilian survey analysis, bus and truck tIre data were
merged, separate Intercepts being estimated for each of the three tire
sizes: 900 x 20, 1,000 x 20 and 1,100 x 22, covered In the data set.
Estimation Is by ordinary least squares fitting distinct Intercepts for
each company, thus removing company policy and type of business effects.
Slnce no company provided data on more than one tire size and no company
provided data on both buses and trucks, the merging of the tire data on
TIRE COSTS 205
buses and trucks is less objectionable than would otherwise be the case.
In the Kenyan survey bus and truck tire data were merged for analysis,
gross vehicle weight being Included as an explanatory variable. Gross
vehicle weight plays a role In distingulshing buses and trucks and also In
distinguishing vehicles with different numbers of tires since In the Kenyan
(and Caribbean) analysis tire consumption per vehicle per distance
travelled Is the dependent variable.
Figure 6.2 graphs bus tire consumption agalnst surface roughness.

The extent of the plotted lines Indicates the approximate range of
roughness observed in the studies. Only three equations are drawn In
Figure 6.2 since the Carlbbean study does not report a separate equation
for bus tire consumption. The predictions for bus tire consumptlon are In
good agreement, the Indlan, Brazillan and Kenyan equations predlcting
respectively 0.15, 0.16, and 0.14 equivalent new tires per 1,000 km per
vehicle on roads with roughness equal to 3,000 mm/km. The Kenyan equatlon
predicts more rapidly Increasing tire consumption with Increases In surface
roughness than do the other studies but this equation Is estimated using
data over a relatively narrow range of roughness. Table 6.9 gives
percentage Increases In tire consumption on Increasing roughness from a
base roughness of 4,000 mm/km and the Indian and Brazilian equations are In
reasonable agreement.
The predictions for truck tire consumption are plotted against

surface roughness In Figure 6.3. The Brazilian study generates two
equations, one for a medium truck (e.g., a Mercedes Benz LK 1513/42) fitted
wlth six 1,000 x 20 tires, the other for a heavier truck (e.g., a Scania
T112H 6 x 2/42 operating as a solo 3-axle rigid truck) fitted with ten
1,100 x 22 tires. The Indian data refers to trucks with an average weight
of around 13 tonnes and the Kenyan and Caribbean predictions are obtained
using a gross vehicle weight of 12 tonnes. The Kenyan and Caribbean
predictlons are generally higher than those given by the Indian equations
but quite similar In level to those given by the Brazilian equations. On
roads with roughness equal to 5,000 mm/km, equivalent new tires per 103 km
per vehicle are predicted to be .143 using the Indian equation, .169 using
the Brazil equation for medium trucks (.130 for heavy trucks), .172 using
the Caribbean equation and .167 using the Kenyan equation (see Table 6.7).
The effects of Increasing road roughness are rather larger In the

Kenyan and Caribbean equations than In the Brazilian and Indian truck tire
equations. For example, Increasing roughness from 4,000 mm/km to 7,000
mm/km Is predicted to lead to 11, 10, 31, and 27 percent Increases In tire
consumption using respectively the Indian, Brazilian (medium truck),
Caribbean, and Kenyan equations (see Table 6.8). Tlre consumption
predictions obtained using the Indian study equations are somewhat lower
than those derived from the other studies results. As noted eariler,
there are some doubts concerning the accuracy with which the general level
of tire consumption Is predicted using the Indian study equations because
of the use during analysis of a kilometer rather than a price weighted
count of tires used by vehicles. In the Indian study there Is evidence to
suggest slightly higher tire consumption measured In equivalent new tires
per 103 km per vehicle, for buses than for trucks. This phenomenon which Is
reflected In the fitted equations may In part be due to a lower number of
206 TIRE COSTS
Table 6.6: Tire Consumption Equations: Buses and Trucks
Study Vehicle Class Equation
Brazil Buses/Trucks T = NT/(47.2S 900 + 49.2S1 0 0 0 + 78.171100.
- .0012R - .352RF - .0107C).
India Buses/Trucks T = NT/(50.79rR + 56.82BU - .0057K
- .0015R - .314RF - .0130C + 1.368W).
Caribbean Trucks T = GVW (.0076 + .00000135R}.
Kenya Buses/Trucks T = GVW (.0083 + .00000112R).
T = Equivalent new tires per 103 km per vehicle.

Nr = Number of tires per vehicle
R = Road roughness (mm/km)
RF = Average rise plus fall (m/kmn)
C = Average degrees of curvature (0 /km)
W = Average Pavement width (m)
K = Vehicle age at survey midpoint (103 km)
GYW= Gross vehicle weight (t)
TR = 1 if vehicle is a truck, 0 otherwise
BU = 1 if vehicle is a bus, 0 otherwise
SaW = 1 if tires are 900 x 20, 0 otherwise
Siooo 1 if tires are 1000 x 20. 0 otherwise
S1100 1 if tires are 1100 x 22, 0 otherwise-
TIRE COSTS 207
Figure 6.2: Tire Consumptlon (T) versus Surface Roughness (R): Buses
0. 2 5 T
,B
0..20
'A,
0. 1,
_~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~R, .
0.05
2000 4000 6d00 8600 loobo 12 00R,3

R, IRI
2.8 5.1 7.4 9.5 12.0 14.0
Eqauations: B : Brazil
I India
K: Kenya
Units: T : Equivalent new tires per 103km per vehicle.

R Surface Roughness, BI(mm/km), IRI(m/km)
Variables not Plotted: NT (Number of tires) = 6

5 iooo(= 1 it tire is 1000 x 20) = 1
RF (Rise plus fall, m/km) = 20
C (Average degrees of curvature 0/krn) 90
W (Pavement width, m) = 5.5
K (Vehicle age, 103/krm) 350
208 TIRE COSTS
Figure 6.3: Tire Consumption (T) versus Surface Roughness (R): Trucks
T
0.25
.4
0.20 -
- BM
0.15 < BH- .-
0.10
0.05
,R,B I
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
R, IRI
2.8 5.1 7.4 9.5 12.0 14.0 16.0
Equations: C Caribbean
OM Brazil (medium, 1000 x 20, 6 tires per vehicle)
BHt Brazil (heavy, 1100 x 22, 10 tires per vehicle)
I India
K Kenya
Units: T Equivalentnew tires per 103km per vehicle.

R Surtace Roughness, Bl(mm/knm) IRI(m/km)
Variabbz n!ot Plotted

NT (Number of tires per vehicle) = 6 (except BH- see above)
1000 8110 (mseeabove)
RF (Rise plus fal, m/km) = 20
C (Average degrees of curvature 0 lkm) = 90
W (Pavement width, m) 5.5
K (Vehile age, 1O3 Ikn) = 350
GVW Gross vehicle weight 0t)= 12 (Kenya and Caribbeanonly).
TIRE COSTS 209
Figure 6.4: Tire Consumption (T) versus Average Rise + Fall (RF):
Buses and Trucks
T
0. 25
B
0_20 7
o.isl~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
0.15~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ -
0.101
0.05
.___T___I___,_____________
RF
10 20 30 40 50 60
Eouations: B Brazil, Busimedium truck

13 :India, bus
'T : India, truck
Units: T : Equivalent new tires per 103kn per vehicle.

R Surfae Roughness, Bl(mmlkm), IRI(lmkm)
not Plotted:
Variables
NT : Number of tires per vehicle = 6
S1oo0: = 1 (tire size = 100 x 20)
R Surface roughness = 5000 BI(mm/km), 6.3 IRl(m/km)
0
C Average degrees of curvature ( /km) = 100
W : Pavementwidth, tm) = 5.5
K Vehicle age, (103/km) 350
210 TIRE COSTS
Figure 6.5: Tire Consumptlon (T) versus Average Degrees of Curvature (C)
T
0.25
'B
0.20-
B
T--
0.15
0.05 -
200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 C

100
Ehukthm: B Brzil, Bus/medium truck

l'B : India, bus
IT : India, truck
3
Unft: T Equivalent new tires per 10 km per vehicle.
R: Surface Roughness (mm/kn)
V Iabie not Potted:

NT Number of tires per vehice = 6
Sa,=o: = 1 (tire size = 100 x 20)
R Surace roughnoss = 5000 BI(mm/ktu), 6.3 IRICm/km)
RF: Average rise plus fal (m/km) = 210
W Pavementwidth, (m) = 5.5
K Vehibe ae. (103 /km) = 350-
TIRE COSTS 211
Table 6.7: Tire ConsumptionPredictions: Buses and Trucks

EqulvalentNew Tires per 103 km per Vehicle
t T~~~~~~~~ni Brazil | Caribbean Konya
| Road I
Rough,km
Rou|Truck Bus(?) Med Truck/ Heavy
Trck
I Artiulated Truck Bus/Mod
Truck .
81Rmone=) TrucTck Triuler(5) CTruckb).
(IRI(m/km) ) I
2,000 (2.8) .129 .142 .154 .148 .265 .124 .126
3,000 (4.0| .133 .147 ,158 .150 .270 .140 .140
4,000 (5.1) .132 .153 .164 .152 .275 .156 .153
5,000 (6.3) .139 .160 .169 .156 .280 .172 .167
6,000 (7.4) .149 .166 .175 .158 .284 .188 .180
7, 0O (8.5) .154 .173 .181 .161 - .205 .194
8,000 (9.5) .161 .181 I .188 .164 _ .221 .207
9,000 (10.6) .168 .190 .196 - - - -
10,000 (11.6) .15 .200 .203 - - - _
11,000 (12.6) .183 .210 .211 - - - _
12,000 (13.7) .192 .222 .220 - - -
13,000 (14.7) .202 .234 - - - - _
14,000 (15.7) .213 .250 _ _ _ _
15,000 (16.7) .225 .267 - _ _ _ _
Notes: (1) NT = 6; K = 230; RF = 20; C = 90; W =5.5

(2) NT = 6; K = 350; RF = 20; C = 90; W = 5.5
(3) NT = 6; S S1loo; RF 20; C 90
(4) NT = 10; S S101 0 ; RF 20; C 90

(5) NT = 18; S 11 (0 ; RF 20; C S0
(6) GVW = 12.
212 TIRE COSTS
Table 6.8:
Tire ConsumptionPredictions: Buses and Trucks

Ratios of EquivalentNew Tires per 10 km per Vehicle (T) on
Roads wlth Given Roughness to EquivalentNew Tires per 103km per Vehicle on
Roads with Roughness Equal to 4,000 mm/km
India Brazil Caribbean Kenya
Roadi__t
2
Roughness Truck(,) U a| ) Med Truck/ Heavy Articulated Truck () Bus/Med
5
8l(mnmIkm) Bus (3) Truck 4) Truck & TraiI.r( )| Truck(6).
[IRI(m/kmn))
2,000 (2.86 93 .92 93 .97 .97 .79 .82
3,000 (4.0) g96 96 .96 .96 .96 .90 .92
4,000 (5.1) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
5,0Q0 (6.3) 1.03 1.04 1.03 1. 02 1.02 1.10 1.09
6,000 (7.4) 1.08 I 1.08 1.07 1.04 1.03 1.21 1.18
7.000 (6.5) 1.11 1.13 1.10 1.06 - 1.31 1.27
8,000 (9.5) 1.16 I 1.18 1.15 1.08 - 1.42 1.35
9,000 (10.6) 1.21 1.24 1.19 _ - - -
10,000 (116) 1.27 1.30 1.23 - _

- _
11,000 (12.6) 1.32 1.37 1.28 - _

- _
12,000 (13.7) 1.39 1.45 1.34 - _

- _
13,000 (14.7) 1.45 1.53 - - I _ _ _
14,000 (16.7) 1.54 1.63 _ _ | _ _ |
15.000 (16.7) 1.62 1.74 _ _ | _
Notes: (1) NT = 6; K = 230; RF = 20; C = 90; W = 5.5

2
( ) NT = 6; K = 350; RF = 20; 0 = 90; W = 5.5
(3) NT = 6; S = Slo8o; RF 20; C = 90
(4) NT = 10; S = Slloo; RF 20; C = 90
(5) NT = 18; S = Slioo; RF 20; C = 90
(6) GYW = 12.

TIRE COSTS 213
Table 6.9:
Tire Consumption Predictions: Buses and Trucks

Ratios of Equivalent New Tires per 10km per Vehicle on Roads
with Given Rise + Fall to Equlvalent New Tires per 103 km per Vehicle
on Roads with Rise + Fall 20m/km
India Brazil
Rise Plus
Fall (m/km) Bus(1l Truck(l) Bus/Med(1 ) Heavy(2).
Truck Truck
20 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
30 1.09 1.08 1.12 1.06
40 1.20 1.18 1.25 1.12
50 1.34 1.30 1.43 1.20
60 1.50 1.44 1.67 1.218
70 1.72 1.62 2.00 1.38
Notes: Surfaceroughness= 5,000 BI(mm/km), 6.3 IRI(m/km)

Averagedegreesof curvature= 1000/km.
Pavementwidth = 5.5m.
Vehicleage = 350,000 km (India)
(1) 6 tires per vehicle (1000 x 20 for Brazil)

(2) 10 tires per vehicle, 1100 x 22
recaps being performed per tire for tires used on buses for reasons of
safety.
Increasingly there Is a need in cost benefit analyses to predict

vehicle operating costs for heavy articulated vehicles grossing 30 to 40
tonnes. Only the Brazilian study gives Information on tire costs for this
type of vehicle which typically operates wlth large 1,100 x 22 tires.
Table 6.7 gives predicted tire consumptions for articulated vehicles
grossing around 40 tonnes fitted with 18 tires.
Both the Indian and Brazilian surveys report effects for highway
geometry. Analysis of the Indian survey's bus data produced reasonably
well determined effects for rise + fall, average degrees of curvature and
pavement width. From the Brazilian study's data a quite well determined
effect for rise + fall was obtained and the curvature effect was small, and
statistically Insignificant. Figures 6.4 and 6.5 graph tire consumption
for buses and trucks against rise + fall (m/km) and average degrees of
curvature (0 /km) and It Is clear that the predicted effects from the two
studies are quite similar. Increased average rise + fall leads to
increased tire consumption - predictions are given In Table 6.10.
Increasing average rise + fall from 20m/km to 50m/km Is predicted to
Increase tire consumption by from 30 to 43 percent for the medium weight
vehicles and by a lesser amount for the larger Brazilian heavy truck. Once
214 TIRE COSTS
average rise + fall becomes large successive increases In rise + fall brlng
large Increases In tire consumption.
The curvature effects can be appreciated by examining Figure 6.5

and Table 6.11, the latter containing predictions. Even Increasing average
degrees of curvature from 1000 /km to 1,0000 /km leads to only 40-50 percent
increases in tire consumption. The evidence from the Brazilian study is
scanty to say the least, since there only a very limited range of curvature
was observed. However the evidence from the Indian study for buses Is more
convincing since these vehicles were observed operating on routes with
average degrees of curvature exceeding 1,0000/km and in practice these
vehicles do not have massively greater tire consumption. The small
magnitude of the estimated curvature effects may be in part due to driver
behaviour, the curvature experienced by the vehicle being smalier than that
measured In the survey as a result of drivers taking lines through corners
which tend to straighten bends out. In addition there are probably subtle
speed effects.
The Indian study equation contains a pavement width effect.

Reducing pavement width from 5.5m to 4.5m Is predicted to Increase tire
consumption by around 4 percent for buses and trucks using the settings for
other variables used in Tables 6.10 and 6.11 (in particular rise + fall =
20m/km, average degrees of curvature - 1000 /km). These effects are small
and their origin Is unclear. Roughness measuring Instruments In India
tended to leave the highway on narrow routes when encountering slow moving
Table 6.10: Tire Consumption Predictions: Buses and Trucks

Ratios of Equivalent New Tires per 104 km per Vehicle on Roads
with Given Curvature to Equlvalent New Tires per 103 km per
Vehicle on Roads with Curvature 1000 /km
India Brazil
Average Degrees
of Curvature BuJ(t) Truck' 1 ) us/Med ( 1 ) Heavy(2),
0
/kin Truck Truck
100 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

200 1.04 1.03 1.04 1.02
300 1.08 1.07 1.07 1.03
400 1.12 1.11 1.10 1.05
500 1.17 1.15 1.14 1.08
600 1.22 1.19 1.18 1.09
700 1.27 1.24 1.23 1.11
800 1.33 1.30 1.27 1.13
900 1.40 1.35 1.32 1.15
1000 1.47 1.41 1.38 1.18
Notes: Surface roughness = 5,000 BI(mm/km), 6.3 IRl(mfkm)

Rise plus fall = ZOm/ikm
Pavement width = 5.5m.
Vehicle age = 360,000 km
(1) 6 tires per vehicle (1000 x 20 for Brazil)

(2) 10 tires per vehicle, 1100 x 22
TIRE COSTS 215
Table 6.11: Ratios of Tire Costs on Gravel Roads (6,000mm/km) to Tire

Costs on Bitumen Roads (3,000mm/km)
Vehicle Class Study Ratio, Gravel/Bitumen
Cars India 1.71

Brazil 1.71
Carlbbean 2.34
Kenya 2.91
Buses India 1.13

Bus/Medium Truck Brazil 1.11
Bus/Truck Kenya 1.29
Trucks Caribbean 1.34
Heavy Trucks Brazil 1.06
or approaching traffic so that the roughness measurements on narrow routes

contain a contribution due to shoulder roughness. The width effects
reported here may be due to Increased acceleration and deceleration due to
more frequent speed changes on the relatively congested narrow Indian
routes.
6.5 REMARKS
CONCLUDING
As noted in Sectlon 6.1 tire data are difficult to collect

because, at least in large organisatlons, tires are moved from vehicle to
vehicle. Further tire life varies greatly from tire to tire even under
Identical operating conditions. Tire life also varies considerably
according to load carried, position on the vehicle, speed of operation,
driver behaviour and depends on company policy regarding standards of
maintenance of tires and vehicles and regarding frequency and standard of
recap. Even with the relatively large samples obtained In India and Brazil
It Is difficult to extract information on the relatlonship between tire
consumption and highway characteristics. The equations reported in
Sections 6.3 and 6.4 are not estimated with great accuracy. However there
Is some agreement between the studies, particularly the larger studies
carried out In Indla and Brazil. And the information these studies provide
is relevant to planning decisions because It tells us about tire costs In
real life operating conditions - the conditions under which the benefits of
highway Improvement schemes will be reaped.
The effect of road roughness comes through In all the studies.

For car tires, the effect of increasing roughness from 3,500 to 5,000 mm/km
Is to increase tire consumption by about 30 percent (55-70 percent If the
Kenyan and Caribbean results are used). For trucks and buses (but not
216 TIRE COSTS
heavy trucks) the effects are far smaller - around 6 percent (and less
still for heavy trucks) - again the Kenyan and Caribbean equations predict
larger effects.
Using the large bus and truck tIre data sets obtained In India and
Brazil It Is possible to find effects for rise + fall and average degrees
of curvature and these two studies are In broad agreement concerning
magnitudesof these effects. Increasingaverage rise + fall from 20m/km to
60m/km results In an Increase In tire consumption of around 50 percent
(less for heavy trucks). Increasing average degrees of curvature from
1000 /km to 1,0000 /km increasestire consumptionby around 45 percent (again
less for heavy trucks).
There Is only limited Information available from other sources on

the effects of highway characteristics on tire costs under actual
commercialoperating conditions. De Weille (1966) cites Doyen (1960) and
Moyer and Tesdall (1945), giving tire costs 100 percent higher on gravel
than on paved roads. Comparing 6,000 mm/km routes with 3,000 mm/km routes
we obtain from the four studies the percentage Increases In costs shown In
Table 6.11. Doyen's figures agree only with the Kenyan and Caribbean
results for cars. Generally the studies predict smaller differentials
though for car tire wear the differentialspredicted In the Brazilian and
Indian studies approach those given by Doyen. For buses and trucks the
differentialsare much smaller. Moyer and Tesdall's results are based on
tire technologyof the 1940s and Doyen's work reports an International
literaturereview carried out In the 1950s, so differences are to be
expected.
It Is not easy to compare the results of the four studies reported

In Sectlons 6.3 and 6.4 with those from other studies. First, there are
few studies reporting tire costs as they relate to highway characteristics
under normal operating conditions. Studies have been made on tire costs
for off-highway operations, for example logging (Sullivan 1977) and open
cast haul dump operations but the vehicles are so specialized that their
costs are not usefully comparedwith the results reported In this chapter.
Second, studies that have measured tire wear and reportedestimates of tire
costs have sometimes omitted to adJust for the benefits of recapping.
Bonney and Stevens (1967), for example, found that the distance run on new
tires and recaps was frequently similar on Identical routes (see the
earlier discussionof Ker and Soloman (1976)) and priced recaps at the same
price as a new tire. Finally, the data from other sources which have been
processed to give a good Indication of tire costs In commercialoperation
are frequentlyassoclatedwlth broad classes of road and so car only be
used to compare levels of tire consumption or cost predicted from the
reporteduser cost studies.
Tire technologyand manufacture continues to change fundamentally

and rapidly and It is clear that future research Into tIre costs for road
vehicles Is required to measure the benefits of new polyester tire
materials, different recapping techniques, the manufacture In developing
countriesof new tire types like steel braced radlals and super singles, as
well as the possible use of variable central tire Inflationequipmenton
large articulatedvehicles (Kyle 1983).
TIRE COSTS 217
APPENDIX. TIRE EQUATIONS AS REPORTED IN THE FOUR STUDIES
This appendix contains the tire cost and tire life equations as
reported by the four studies, together with comments concerning the
statistical aspects of the equations.
A6.1 Kenya
The dependent variable In the Kenyan equatlons Is TCV, number of

equlvalent new tires consumed per kilometer. Equations are reported for
cars and light goods vehicles and for medium and heavy goods vehicles and
buses.
Cars and light goods vehicles
TCV - (-83 + .058R).10-6 .
R2 - 0.98, 6 data points, averages from total of 63 vehicles.
Variable Mln Max Mean
R(mm/km) 2,440 7,000 3,810
TCV - Number of equivalent new tires consumed per km per vehicle.
R - Road roughness (mm/km).
Medium and heavy goods vehicles and buses
TCV - (83 + .0112R).10-7

L
R(mm/km) 2,440 7,500* 3,110
* 4 vehicles exceeding 4,100.

218 TIRE COSTS
L - Total vehicle weight (tonnes)

TCV,R - as above.
Remarks
The fit of the reportedequations to the data Is very close. Only

2 percent of the variability In reported tire consumption remains to be
attributed to across company policy differences,highway geometry, driver
behaviour differences and so forth. Of course the data are averages
relating not to tires' Individualhistories but to vehicles' consumptionof
tires over a one-year survey perlod during which, utilisation was around
77,000 km for cars, 119,000 km for buses and 47,000 km for trucks. In
addition data used in the analysis are averages of tires consumed per
vehicle taken over groups containingfrom 6 to 25 vehicles for cars (1 to
76 vehicles for buses and trucks). Both averaging processes will tend to
IncreaseR2 statistics. Neverthelessthe reported values are very high.
The results for medium and heavy goods vehicles and buses are
somewhat Influencedby three data points relating to 4 of the 183 vehicles
In this data set, operating on routes with roughness averaging 5,125 mm/km,
7,000 mm/km and 7,500 mm/km. If these three data points are removed R2
drops to 0.78. No allowance is made for variations across vehicles In
numbers of tires per vehicle but a multiplicativevehicle welght effect Is
Incorporated.
In the main text the dependent variable for reporting tire cost
equations Is T - equivalent new tires per thousand kilometersper vehicle
defined as: T - 103 .TCV.
A6.2 Caribbean
As In the Kenyan study the dependent variable Is number of

equivalentnew tires consumed per kilometer per vehicle.

3.
TCV - (-.0601 + .0000764R).10-
R2 - 0.81
21 vehicles (111 equivalentnew tires).
Approximate Ranges and Means of ExplanatoryVarlables
R(mm/km) 3,500 8,000 5,333

TIRE COSTS 219
TCV - Number of equivalent new tires consumed per km per vehicle.
Trucks
TC - (.0706 + .0000135R).G.10-4 .
R2 _ 0.91
19 vehicles.
R(mm/km) 3,500 7,500 5,711
G(tonnes) 4.5 11 7
Source: Hlde (1982).
Remarks
As wlth the Kenyan study the equations fit the data very closely.
Here Individual vehicle data are used so that In the Caribbean study the
high R2 statistics relate directly to across vehicle varlation in tire
consumption over a one-year period.
In the main text the dependent variable for reporting tire cost
equations Is T - equivalent new tires per thousand kllometers per vehicle
defined as T - 103 .TCV.
A6.3 Brazil
The equations reported In GEIPOT (1981) were re-estimated (Chesher

1982) Incorporating recalculated roughness statistics, with the results
shown below. The dependent varlable In the Brazil analysis Is 104
kilometers per equlvalent new tire, TC, defined as total kilometerage per
tire In 104 kilometers divided by 1 + RC/6.6 where RC Is number of recaps
per tire and 6.6 Is the ratlo of new tire price to recapping price. The
unit of observatlon for analysis In the Brazilian study Is a tire, not a
vehicle or group of vehicles which form observatlonal units for analysis In
the other studles.
Cars
TC - 6.315 - .0341QI
(-3.89)
220 TIRE COSTS
SW - 2.126
R2 , .03
Number of tires - 245
Number of companies - 1.
Varlable Min Max Mean
Q1(QI*) 34 87 48
TC - 104 kilometers per equivalent new tire.
Qi - Road roughness (01*, Quarter car Index).
Buses and trucks
TC - 5.67S9 0 0 + 5.91S1, 0 0 0 + 9.38S 1,1 00.
(16.30) (10.14) (24.31)
- .0O768Qi - .0422RF - .00128C

(-3.58) (-3.81) (-.59)
Sw - 1.820
R2 - .87 (includes effect of company Indicators)
Number of tires - S900 : 2,516
S1 000 517
S1,100: 502
TOTAL : 3,535

TIRE COSTS 221
Q0(Ql*) 23 240 84
RF(m/km) 10 49 29
C(°/km) 8 294 65
RF : Rise + fall (m/km)

C : Average degrees of curvature (0 /km).
Sgoo : 1 If tire size Is 900 x 20, 0 otherwlse.
S1 000 : 1 If tire size Is 1,000 x 20, 0 otherwise.
S1 100 : 1 If tire size is 1,100 x 22, 0 otherwise.
Remarks
The basic analysis file contained over 20,000 tire changes and
produced an analysis file of 245 car, 63 light goods vehicle, and 3,535 bus
and truck tire lives. The car tires are all crossply 500 x 15, coming from
one company operating over a ilmited range of roughness. All but two of
the 245 car tires were used on user survey vehicles for at least 90 percent
of their lives and very few were recapped. Hlghway geometry variation Is
very llmited in the car tire data set and no geometry effects can be found.
The bus and truck tire data come from 18 companies, 94 percent of
the data coming from Just 11 companies. Recapping Is common with bus and
particularly with truck tires, up to 9 recaps per tire being recorded.
There Is considerable dispersion In number of recaps per tire. The average
number of recaps per tire In the bus and truck tire data set was 1.4. Road
roughness and geometry variation Is more extensive In this data set though
average degrees of curvature does not exceed 3000 /km for any tire.
Seventy-five percent of the tires in this data set were used on user survey
vehicles for at least 90 percent of their lives.
The bus and truck tire equation is estimated Including a binary

Indlcator variable for each company so that only within company variation
In tire lives and route characteristics Is exploited In estimating the
coefficients on highway characteristics. The reported coefficients are
therefore Insensitive to across company differences In tire policy, type of
business and so forth. The reported Intercepts are obtalned by taking
weighted averages of estimated company specific intercepts after grouping
222 TIRE COSTS
companles by tire size, with weights equal to number of tires per company
in the data set. No company provided data on more than one tire size and
no company provided data on both truck and bus tires. There Is
considerable tire to tire variation In tire lives in this data set and
variations in highway characteristics explain rather little of the
variation in Individual tire lives.
However, the data set is so large that moderately accurate

estimates of the effects of highway characterlstics on average tire lives
can be obtained. The effect of vertical geometry Is quite well determined
but the effect for horizontal geometry is Inaccurately estimated. The
horizontal geometry coefficient Is retained because It gives realistic
predictions and agrees well with the coefficient found In the Indlan study.
The dependent variable In the tire equations reported In the main

text is T - equivalent new tires per thousand kilometers per vehicle
defined as T T - where TC Is 104 km per equivalent new tire and
10.TC
NT Is number of tires per vehicle. Roughness coefficients have been
converted so that they apply to roughness measured In mm/km using the
conversion 1QI* - 55 mm/km.
A small sample of light goods vehicles tires gIves the

relationship
TC - 6.97 - .0265QI
which after change of units and assuming four tires per vehicle becomes:
T - 1/(17.4 - .0012R).
As noted In Sectlon 6.2 of the main text, predicted tire consumptions have
been Increased by 20 percent to correct approximately for biases Introduced
upon Inverting predictions of kilometers per equivalent new tire.
A6.4 India
The Indian tire analysis file contains tire lives from 54 cars,
640 buses, and 232 trucks.
The tire life equations reported In CRRI (1982) were re-estimated

by Chesher (1982). The car tire equation reported by CRRI (1982) has as
explanatory variable the ratio of road roughness to pavement width, RC/W.
There is rather little evidence to support the use of this specific
Interaction term, excluding main effects for roughness and width and the
ratio Is apparently used to attempt to overcome multicollinearity In the
data set. The equation as re-estimated omits pavement width and yields a
roughness coefficient that broadly agrees with that found In the Brazilian
study.
The bus tire equation was re-estimated by generalized least

squares allowing for company and vehicle specific random disturbances and
TIRE COSTS 223
on doing this moderately well determined coefficients are obtained for

roughness, rise + fall, curvature and pavement width.
The truck tire data set Is particularly difficult to analyze.

Exploiting just within company variation we obtain roughness and pavement
width coefficients very close to those obtained for buses. Because within
company varlatlon In highway geometry Is very llmited In this data set the
coefficients on rise + fall and curvature obtained in this way are very
poorly determined. The equatlons reported by CRRI (1982) are obtalned by
applying ordinary least squares to the raw vehicle data Including company
ownership indicators (government/private) and are Inconclusive concerning
the effect of highway geometry. The similarity of the roughness and width
coefficients obtained using within company variatlon In tire lives and
highway characteristics and the similarity of the deslgn of Indian buses
and trucks leads us to use the estimated bus tire life equation for trucks
as well, adjusting the Intercept term to allow for differences In tire
lives for buses and trucks. This adjustment Is explained below.
The dependent variable In the Indian survey tlre analyses Is TL,

kilometers per equivalent new tire, equivalent new tires belng defined
using a kilometer weighting. Because of the manner In which tire life data
were complied In the Indian survey it Is necessary to multiply the reported
equatlons through by 0.727 to allow for the effect of recapping and the use
of used tires. This Is explained further In the text In Sectlon 6.1.
Car tires
TC - 60,024 - 5.858R
(-5.61)
SW - 5,323
Su - 2,827
Number of vehicles - 54
Number of companies - 10
TL - Tire life (km per equivalent new tire)
R(mm/km) 3,416 6,955 4,987

224 TIRE COSTS
Remarks
The equation Is estimated by generalized least squares allowing

for random company and vehicle specific disturbances. The equation
explains about 50 percent of the vehicle to vehicle variation in average
tire lives. Vehicles were observed for from 9 months to 28 months, on
average for 24 months, so that, given the utiilsatlon figures reported,
each data point relates to average tire life for a group of around ten
tires.
Buses tires
TC - 36,101 - 1.126R - 241RF - 10.54C + 1,044W - 4.34 K

(-4.20) (-3.55) (-2.81) (2.56) (-3.77)
Su - 3,346
SW - 5,886
Number of companies - 20
TL - Tire life (km per equlvalent new tire)
R - Road roughness (mm/km)
RF - Rise + fall (m/km)
C - Average degrees of curvature (0 /km)
W - Pavement width (m)
K - Vehicle age at survey midpoint (103 km).
R(mm/km) 2,925 12,072 5,953

RF(m/km) 1 50 15
C(°/km) 5 1,021 149
W(m) 3.7 7.2 5.2
3
K(10 km) 22 988 345

TIRE COSTS 225
Remarks
This Is the equation re-estimated by Chesher (1983) by generalized

least squares allowing for random company and vehicle specific
disturbances. A single trailer bus (the only vehicle of this type) with a
distinctive pattern of costs was deleted from the data set reducing the
number of vehicles to 639. Geometry and roughness effects are qulte well
determined and there is a small but statistically significant effect for
vehicle age. The fitted equation explains about 50 percent of the vehicle
to vehicle variatlon In average tire life, vehicles consuming on average
around 40 tires during the survey period. The magnitude of Su suggests
considerable across company variation In tire lives.
Truck tires
In Chesher (1983) the following equation Is estimated by applying

ordinary least squares to the truck data set, Including company specific
Indicator variables.
TL - 31,339 + 109.9RF - 1.150R + 1,096W + 12,784 AX6

(.71) (-1.43) (.77) (14.07)
Sw - 5,178
TL - Tire life (km per equivalent new tire)
R - Road roughness (mm/km)
RF - Average rise + fall (m/km)
C - Average degrees of curvature (0 /km)
AX6 - 1 If vehicle has axle code 6 (truck-trailer combination

fitted with 12 tires per vehicle).
R(mm/km) 2,960 15,500 5,331

RF(m/km) 1 58 13.4
C(°/km) 8 1,215 137
W(m) 3.8 7.0 6.0

226 TIRE COSTS
Remariks
Coefficients in this equation are poorly determined but the

roughness and pavement width coefficients are close to those obtained for
buses. No sensible geometry effects can be found explolting only wlthin
company variation. The similarity in design of Indian trucks and buses and
the similarity of the roughness and width coefficlents reported above
suggests that the bus equation may be applicable to trucks with minor
adjustments to allow for different average tire lives for buses and trucks.
The equation reported In the main text for trucks Is the bus equation given
eariler, with the Intercept modified so that at mean values of explanatory
varlables In the truck data set the equation predicts the mean tire life
observed In the truck data set.
In the main text the dependent variable for reporting tire

equations Is T - equivalent new tires per 1,000 km per vehicle defined as
NT.1,000/TL. As noted In Section 6.1 tire costs estimated In the Indian
study are multiplied through by 0.727 to allow for the effects of recapping
and use of used tires. As noted in Section 6.2 of the main text, predicted
tire consumption has been increased by 5 percent to convert approximately
for blas Introduced by Inverting predictions of tire tile.
CHAPTER 7
Maintenance Costs
This chapter, which concludes Part II, contains results concerning

vehicle maintenance costs, parts and labor, and their relationship to
highway and vehicle characteristics. Maintenance costs are crucially
Important In the calculation of benefits to highway Improvements. They are
a large component of total vehicle operating costs, they are sensitive to
highway conditions, particularly surface condition, and their progression
as vehicles age Is Influential In determining vehicle replacement
expenditures, and thus depreciation and Interest costs. Firms' choices of
maintenance strategies have Implications for the analysis, Interpretation
and transferability of the studies' results and the remainder of this
sectlon is concerned with these Issues. Sections 7.1 and 7.2 give brief
details of the methods used to collect maintenance cost data and the
statistical procedures applied to them. The rest of the chapter describes
and comments on the relationships reported by the studies.
Maintenance costs depend upon the characteristics of the routes

over which vehicles travel, on the way In which vehicles are used and on
the characteristics of the vehicles. Vehicle owners can Influence
maintenance costs by controlling ioads, speeds, and drivers' behavior.
They can Influence the progression of maintenance costs as vehicles age by
Investing In "preventative maintenance" and we can expect the extent of
preventative maintenance to vary across countries due to differences in
relative prices of maintenance labor, parts, and new vehicles. When
components are replaced vehicle owners can choose the nature and quality of
the repair that Is performed. Thus owners can choose to replace with
components that are new, bought-in reconditioned or reconditioned In-house.
Relative prices Influence this decision and the decision to Invest In a
major vehicle overhaul or partlal reconstruction.
Firms differ In thelr access to maintenance facilItles and In the

damage that the service they provide Inflicts upon vehicles. So we can
expect to see across company as well as across country differences In
maintenance policies and expenditures. These need to be addressed when
considering the statistical analysis of user cost survey data and when
comparing the results obtained from the four vehicle operating cost
studies. One Issue that arises then Is the relationship between
maintenance expenditures and vehicle prices.
In the Kenyan and Caribbean studles the dependent variable In the

statistical analysis of maintenance parts costs Is, apart from a factor
involving vehicle age, the ratio of maintenance parts costs per kilometer
to vehicle price. In the statistical analysis of the Brazilian and Indlan
user survey data, parts cost In monetary units per unit distance, or some
non-lInear transformation of this was used as the dependent variable. In
227
228 MAINTENANCE COSTS
presenting the results of the four studies later In the Chapter we report
as the dependent variable: P/VP where P Is parts consumption In monetary
units per 1,000 kilometers and VP is new vehicle price In 105 monetary
units, modifying coefficients where necessary, as explained in Appendix A.
This standardization of the dependent variable Is carried out in order to
simplify notation and to ease to some extent the problems of comparing the
results of the four studies. However, this is to a large extent a cosmetic
operation since there Is little reason to expect there to be a static
relationship between vehicle prices and maintenance parts costs
transferable across environments even under common highway conditions. The
ratio P/VP gives the illusion of being a measure of malntenance parts
consumption that is free of monetary units, and equations for P/VP at first
sight express some fundamental physical relationship between parts
consumption and highway and vehicle characteristics. However, the removal
of monetary units by dividing parts costs by vehicle prices does not remove
the Influence of prices on the parts consumption relationship. The
Influence of relative prices on maintenance policy has already been noted.
One of the prices foremost In the vehicle owner's mind will be the price of
a new vehicle.
In Chapter 2 we noted that, for cost minimising firms, new vehicle

prices and malntenance costs were related through the condition governing
the optimal scrapping of vehicles, and that the flow of maintenance costs
depends upon highway conditions and vehicle utilizatlon, the latter being
within firms' control. The situation Is pictured In Figure 7.1, in which
vehicle age In years Is measured horizontally and costs per time period are
measured on the vertical axis. The progression of maintenance and other
running costs Is shown by the line m(t), which excludes costs associated
with vehicle purchase and replacement. Deterioration In highway conditions
and Increases In utilization both cause m(t) to swing upwards. Cost
minimlsing firms scrap vehicles at a date s, such that the present value of
the shaded area In Figure 7.1 Is equal to new vehicle price.
Equal proportionate changes In the prices of all Inputs to the

production of transportation leave the ratio of maintenance costs to new
vehicle prices unchanged because of the homogeneity of fIrms' cost
functions. So use of P/VP is warranted when we wlsh to allow for
variations In the general level of prices across countries and across types
of business. However, the situation we face when we examime the studies'
results Is one In which relative prices vary across countries. Thus, in
India, mechanics' labor Is cheap relative to new vehicles compared with the
other countries studled and we can expect this to lead to relatively labor
Intensive maintenance practices in India, to relatively low ratios of parts
costs to new vehicle prices and to relatively long-lived vehicles. Table
7.1 shows approximate averages for P/VP for the four studies. As expected,
the ratios are uniformly low In the Indian data. There is considerable
variation In P/VP across vehicle classes, buses giving rise to the lowest
ratios and cars to the highest.
Within any vehicle class we can expect P/VP to be Influenced by

fIrms' choice of vehicle specificatlon. Consider a transport company
making a vehicle purchase decision, faced with two alternative vehicle
MAINTENANCE COSTS 229
Figure 7.1: RelationshIpbetween Vehicle Price and MaintenanceCosts
$/year
I
M (t)
S vehicle age (years)
Table 7.1: ApproxImateAverages of Ratio of MaintenanceParts Costs

(monetaryunits per 1,000 km, P), to Price of EqulvalentNew
Vehicles (105 monetary units, VP), FinancialCosts, Obtained In
the Four User Surveys
VehibeCla Skudy PNVP
Cars idian 10
Cars Urezi 200
COr and light goods Cwibbean 500
Car and light good, Km" 2SO
Light goods kraza 350
_Su kdia 60
use Brazil 70
suss Kea sO
Medium trucks 1ndI 100
Medium trucks Brzzd 160
Medium truck Cwibben 270
Medium and hay truck Kenya 200
Heavytrucks bezl 200

specifications, one cheap to purchase and lightly engineered, the other

more expensive to purchase but more robust. The less robust vehicle can be
expected to generate higher maintenance costs but It may be the optimal
purchase for the transport company depending on the Interest rate and
demand conditions faced by It. The less robust vehicle yields a high value
of P/VP since P Is high while VP is low. So, when alternative vehicle
specifications are available, division of parts cost by new vehicle price
can actually Induce variation In the dependent variable. And then there Is
a danger that variation In P/VP due to owner's choice of vehicle
specificatlon may be attributed spuriously to varlations In route
characteristics.
Owners' ability to choose appropriate vehicle specificatlons is

likely to have some effect on the extent to which user survey data can
reveal the sensitivity of maintenance costs to highway conditions. On poor
quality routes more expensive vehicles may be suitable purchases if their
malntenance costs are lower than those of cheaper, less robust vehicles.
Total costs per unit output are higher on the poorer quality route because
of the higher cost of purchasing robust vehicles. However, where
alternative vehicle specifications are available, analysis of data covering
a wide range of highway conditions Is likely to understate the effect of
highway quality on maintenance costs that applies to any single vehicle
type. If maintenance costs Increased with, say, roughness as In Figure
7.2, so that owners switch vehicle type at roughness Rs, then, In analysing
user survey data, we will obtain estimates of the lower envelope of the
maintenance cost-roughness curves.
In practice It has not been possible to distinguish between

vehicle specifications within broad vehicle categories since there are
Insufficient data for such a detailed analysis. This probably has a
substantial effect on the survey equations for buses obtained In Brazil
where bus companies tended to operate chassis-based buses on rougher
routes, using unitary (Cmonocoque") designs on smoother routes.
7.1 COLLECTION OF MAINTENANCE COST DATA
The collection of malntenance cost data presents special problems

due to the discreteness of maintenance expenditures and o the wide
variation In cost recording practices employed by transport firms.
Maintenance expenditures occur at Isolated points In time and reflect the
uses to which vehicles have been put over extended periods of their
history. Consequently, user surveys attempt to select vehicles which have
travelled for relatively long periods on one or a few routes and survey
teams attempt to record maintenance expenditures regularly over a
substantial period of time.
In all the studies parts costs were recorded In current monetary

units. The Kenyan and Caribbean studies collected data during a twelve-
month period of a vehicle's history, recording prices for parts at the time
of fitting rather than using prices at which parts were purchased. Price
Inflation was low in Kenya and the Caribbean at the time of the studies so
It was not necessary to make adjustments for price changes during the
Figure 7.2: Rate of Flow of Malntenance Costs as a Function of Roughness:

Two Vehicle Specifications
S/kilometer
Vehicle A
Vehicle B
Roughness
Smooth R Rough
s
survey perlod. The situation was very different In Brazil where, by the
end of the survey, prices were Increasing at over 100 percent per year.
There, the survey team recorded parts prices at the time of fitting to
vehicles and, prior to aggregating parts costs, deflated prices to January
1976 using a price Index for spare parts specially developed for this
purpose. Similar procedures were adopted In the Indian study In which
vehicles were observed for periods In excess of two years.
In the Indian study, parts costs and descriptions of maintenance

activities were recorded, the latter because maintenance labor hours were
to be obtained for most survey vehicles by using Information on "standard"
labor hours required to perform maintenance tasks. The study team found It
extremely difficult to record details of all spare parts and only those
Items costing more than Rs5O (US$10) were recorded In detail, spare parts
costing less than this being held In aggregate form.
It is Important to note that, In all the studies, accident costs

were removed from maintenance expenditures. Large expenses, like
replacement engines, were Included In the Brazilian and Indian studies'
maintenance cost data. In Kenya and the Caribbean where relatively short
twelve-month vehicle histories were examined, these expenditures were
adJusted prior to being added to other maintenance cost data.
Only a few companies In developing countries record maintenance

labor data on a vehicle specific basis. Resources were limited In the
Kenyan and the Caribbean studies and the survey teams were unable to
collect Information other than that contained In company records. In the
Kenyan survey company average labor costs were collected from seven
companles operating In total 204 vehicles. The Caribbean study collected
labor data only from companies who had maintenance performed by commercial
garages and reported an average ratio of labor costs to parts costs was
estimated.
In the Brazilian study two approaches to modelling maintenance

labor costs were attempted. First, total workshop hours were related to
the vehicle fleet route characteristics for fleets within which vehicles
operated over relatively similar route types. The results are reported In
Wyatt et al. (1979). Second, survey vehicle cost histories were examined
to Identify vehicles that possessed long, concurrent parts and labor cost
streams. Typically companies recording labor data had not done so
throughout the survey perlod and the maintenance parts streams were always
longer than maintenance labor cost streams. Vehicles with at least twelve
months concurrent parts and labor data were used to develop the labor
equations reported below.
The Indian survey had an ambitious program for the collection and
transformation of parts cost data Into labor cost data. With major private
operators and government enterprises, where It was possible to Identify
service schedules and consumption of spares and major overhauls on a
vehicle basis, the following procedure was used. Spare parts costs were
grouped Into five classes, namely, periodic maintenance, small parts
replacement, larger parts replacement, major assemblies installation, and
reconditioning of major assemblies. Standard labor hours tables were
developed using manufacturers' recommendations and data obtained from some
of the blgger workshops. Labor cost assoclated with periodic maintenance
was obtained from workshop records. Labor hours associated with
reconditioning and rebuilding major assemblies were derived from
manufacturers' data and workshop experience. Where this procedure could
not be applied because parts costs were only available at the company
level, total labor hours recorded at the workshop was related to total
consumption of spare parts over the same period. The labor hours produced
by these two procedures were converted to labor cost using an hourly
mechanic's wage of 2.25 1978 Rupees (25 cents 1978 U.S. dollars).
7.2 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MAINTENANCE COST DATA
An Important feature of maintenance, cost data Is that maintenance

practices tend to be company specific. First because companies develop
their own style of working, second because companies often have a
distinctive geographical and local economic environment, and third because
companies tend to specialize (particularly In truck transportation) in type
of business performed and In user surveys the need to find vehicles
operating on homogeneous routes results In truck companies that specialize
In a single type of business being over represented. The result Is that
vehicles compared within companies tend to be more similar to each other In
respect of maintenance costs than are vehicles compared across companles.
The experience of the Brazilian study was that after controlling for
highway and vehicle characteristics the variance of costs within companies,
across Individual vehicles was of a similar order of magnitude to the
variance of average company costs across companies. Variances of costs
across companies In bus operations tend to be rather smaller, since bus
operators are engaged In similar businesses. Because there are company
specific variations In maintenance costs, care needs to be taken if
equatlons are estimated by ordinary least squares, since the disturbance
term In the cost equation Is likely to have an error components structure.
As noted in Chapter 2, this leads to at best Inefficient estimation and
biased standard errors and possibly to biased estimates If high and low
cost companies are not disposed at random over highway types.
The results reported for the Indian and Brazilian studies were
almost all obtained either using generalized least squares, regarding
company influences as randomly sampled from a distribution of company
Influences, or by applying ordinary least squares after Introducing company
specific indicator variables so that cost equations are regarded as having
a common slope across companies but a separate intercept for each company.
Where there was evidence of correlation between company effects and highway
characteristics or other explanatory variables, the latter, within company
estimator was used.
The Kenyan study results were obtained using averages of costs and
highway characteristics across groups of vehicles. These groupings do not
always correspond to a company grouping so that one company can generate
more than one average. Our understanding Is that vehicles grouped together
were similar In all respects as far as values of explanatory variables were
concerned. The Caribbean study results were all obtained by applying
ordinary least squares to raw vehicle data.
7.3 MAINTENANCE PARTS COSTS: ESTIMATED EQUATIONS
The Kenyan and Caribbean studies present equations for the ratio
of parts expenditure per 1,000 kilometers to the price of an equivalent new
vehicle, this ratlo being divided by vehicle age (square root of age for
buses). To report these equations we have multiplied through by the age
effect so that It appears on the right hand side of the parts equations,
and changed units of measurement leaving the left hand side variable as
P/VP where P is parts expenditure In monetary units per 1,000 km of travel
and VP Is vehicle price measured in 105 monetary units. The Brazilian and
Indian studies present equations for the natural logarithm of parts
expenditure except for the Brazilian truck equation which uses parts
expenditure as It stands. In reporting the Indian and Brazilian study
equations we have exponentiated the fitted relatlonships and, where
necessary, redenominated parts expenditure In monetary units per 1,000
kilometers. We have then divided through the right hand sides of the
equations by the representative vehicle prices (in 105 monetary units)
shown In Table 7.2, rewriting the left hand side of the equations as P/VP.
Thus all four studies' equations are reported with P/VP as the dependent
variable. To retrieve parts cost In monetary units per 1,000 km as
analysed In the Indian and Brazilian studies the equations reported here
Table 7.2: New Vehicle Prices (Financial) Used In Defining Ratios of Parts
Costs to New Vehicle Price
Study -Currency Dato for Vehicle Class Price
, _ I _ prices _ _ __
India
_ t) Rupees 1978 Cars 64800
Buses 234000
Trucks 180700
ar.zil(2) Cruzeiroi Jan.1976 Crrs 31856

Light Goods Vehcle 43S70
, 8w0~~~~~~~Bss 316S70
l ~~~~~~~~~Trucks:
2-axle 138621
3-,xle 170961
Tipping 146616
Semitrailers: Trtor 317781
Trailer 119923
Kenya(3) I Kenyon 1973 Cars 16900

shillings Buses 132000
Trucks: 2-axle 40000
Heavy unit 120000
3
Caribbeant 1977 Cers 21000
dollars Trucks 48M00
(1) Includes % tax. (2) Includes 1S% tax,

(3) Data expreased as ratio of partscoststo vehicle price prior to analysis.
should be multiplied up by the appropriate representative vehicle prices

from Table 7.2. We stress again that these equations require calibrating
prior to use, that as vehicle prices alter parts costs cannot generally be
expected to adjust proportionately and that In other environments the
ratio of P to VP is likely to differ from the levels observed In the four
studies.
Vehicle age is measured In thousands of kilometers of travel since

first registration. In the Brazilian and Indian studies vehicle age was
measured at the survey midpoint but In the Kenyan and Caribbean studies at
the survey endpoint. In an attempt to present comparable equations the
Kenyan and Caribbean equatlons have been amended by calculating for each
vehicle class, average survey period utilization and replacing the reported
age In the Kenyan and Caribbean equations by survey midpoint age (K) plus
one half of this average utilization.
7.3.1 Maintenance Parts Costs: Cars and Light Goods Vehicles
in the Kenyan and Caribbean studies these vehicle classes were

analysed together but In the Brazilian study cars and light goods vehicles
were subjected to separate analysis. The Indian study reports results
obtained from a very small sample of jeeps. These results are unreliable
and Indian study results given be,low relate to cars alone. In all four
studies cars and light goods vehicles were In commerclal operation, largely
on rural roads.
The equations are presented in common units and in a common

notation in Table 7.3. In all the equations the explanatory variables are
road roughness (R) In mm/km, and vehicle age (K) In thousands of
kilometers, the only exception being the Indian study equation in which
vehicle age does not appear. This equation should be taken to refer to
vehicles of average age in the Indian Road User Survey - around 100,000 km.
The relationships recorded In Table 7.3 are graphed in Figure 7.3

against road roughness for fixed vehicle age and In Figure 7.4 against
vehicle age for fixed roughness. The relationships differ in a number of
Important respects. Firstly, the Kenyan and Caribbean equations are llnear
In road roughness whereas the Brazilian and Indian equations give parts
consumption as an exponential function of roughness. Secondly, the Kenyan
and Carlbbean equations write parts consumption increasing proportionately
with vehicle age whereas In the Brazilian equation parts consumption
Increases with approximately the third root of vehicle age. In all four
studies the data sets on cars and light goods vehicles were rather small
and the range of roughness over which vehicles were observed was relatively
restricted (except for Brazilian light goods vehicles which were observed
on extremely rough routes). In Kenya and the Caribbean only restricted
ranges of vehicle ages were observed.
A feature of the Kenyan and Caribbean results Is their very good

fit to the data and In consequence the apparently high degree of precision
in the estimation of roughness coefficients in these studies. However, in
the case of the Kenyan study equations, this Is part spurious, being
attrlbutable to the effects of averaging over groups of vehicles, and the
comments made above (Section 6.2) In respect of the statistical methodology
for tire analysis apply here also. In the Brazilian and Indian studies,
parts consumption was found to vary greatly from vehicle to vehicle and
only moderate precision In the estimation of coefficients was achieved.
Considerlng first the effect on parts consumption of changing road

roughness, the exponential form used In the Brazilian and Indlan studies
predicts relatively small changes In parts consumption on Increasing
roughness on smooth roads by, say, 1,000 mm/km, but on rough roads a
similar magnitude change in roughness Is predicted to lead to large changes
In parts consumption. In India it appears that parts costs increase less
fast as roughness Increases but It is necessary to note here that the cars
observed In India, are generally of rather sturdier construction, albeit of
older design, than the cars found In commercial operation in Brazil, and
that vehicle speeds In India are generally low.
The form of equation used In the Kenyan and Caribbean studies

requires equal magnitude Increases In parts consumption on Increasing road
roughness by, say, 1,000 mm/km, regardless of Initial roughness. Thus on
smooth roads they tend to predict larger, and on rough roads, smaller
changes than do the Brazillan and Indian study equations. Some care Is
needed In applying these equations to smooth roads because they can predict
quite large reductions in costs on Improving a road from, say, 3,000 mm/km
to 2,000 mm/km, reductions that can lead to large predicted benefits to
highway improvement If the Initially quite smooth road Is heavily
trafficked.
Table 7.3: Maintenance Parts Cost Equations: Cars and Light Goods
Vehicles
Study VehicleClass Equation

India Cars P = exp(4.172 + .000169R),
Brazil Cars P = exp(3.306 + .000249R)K308,
Brazil Light Goods P = exp(4.378 + .000OS4R)K-306,

VP
Caribbean Cars and Light Goods P = (-5.50 + .00262R)(K+8)
Kenya Cars and Light Goods P = (-2.03 + .0018R)(K+38)
Notes: See Appendix7.1 for equationsas reported, summarystatisticsetc.
P = Maintenanc parts cost (monetaryunits per 1O3 kin)
VP = New vehicleprice (10s monetaryunits)
R = Road roughness,81 (mm/kim)
K = Vehicleage at surveymidpoint(103 km).
Turning now to the magnitude of the roughness effect, we can see

from Table 7.4 and Table 7.5, the latter giving predicted percentage
changes in parts costs after a roughness change of 1,000 mm/km, that the
four studies differ somewhat In their predictions. The Kenyan and
Caribbean studies predict a 35 percent Increase In parts consumption on
Increasing roughness from 4,000 mm/km to 5,000 mm/km the corresponding
figure for India and Brazil belng 18 and 28 percent, these figures applying
to a 1,000 mm/km change In roughness from any base. Brazilian light goods
vehicles are less affected by roughness, parts costs per 1,000 km
increasing by only 10 percent with each 1,000 mm/km Increase In roughness.
This Is to be expected given these vehicles' sturdler construction. The
figure for Brazilian cars may be something of an over estimate for normal
operating conditions because most of the cars In the Brazilian road user
survey were Involved in unusually high speed delivery operations. At
higher levels of roughness the roughness effect estimated In the Caribbean
study Is larger than that found In the Kenyan study. Hide (1982) suggests
that this difference arises because the Caribbean data are mostly obtained
from paved road operations, In contrast to the Kenyan data, so that the
roughness coefficients differ In part because of differences In surface
type and assoclated differences In the effects of roughness on vehicles'
deterioration.
Figure 7.3: MaintenanceParts (P/VP) versus Roughness (R): Cars,

P/VP
1600 *
1400 .
K/
1200 /
1000 /
800 / BC -
600 /
400 _ - - /
/ -
400 _ -- ,, -I
200 ..................... .
I R, BI
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
I I I II
I I u , t R, IRI
2.8 5.1 7.4 9.5 12.0 14.0
Equations: BC = Brazil Cars

BU = Brazil Utilities
C = Caribbean : Cars and Light Goods
I = India : Cars
K = Kenya Cars and Light Goods
Units: P = Parts consumption (monetary units/103km).

VP = Vehicle price (105 monetary units)
R = Road roughness Bi (mm/km), IRI (in/krn)
K = Vehicle Age (103 km)
Varables not Plotted: K = Vehicle age = 100,000km (not India).

Figure 7.4: Malntenance Parts (P/VP) versus Vehicle Age (K): Cars, Light
Goods Vehicles and Utilities
P/VP
_@BU
900 - -- -- B
K, _
700 *
II ,'
,/
600 I//
500
'I, ~~~BC
400 - -
300 '
200
100
K
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Equations: BC = Brazil Cars

BU = Brazil Utilities
C = Caribbean : Cars and Light Goods
I= India Cars
K = Kenya : Cars and Light Goods
3
Units: P = Parts consumption (monetary units/10 km).
VP = Vehicle price (10s monetary units)
R = Road roughness BI (mm/km), IRI (m/km)
K = Vehicle Age (103 km)
Variables not Plotted: R = Road roughness = 4,000mm/km.

Now consider the vehicle age effects. In the Brazilian study the
rate of Increase in parts consumption with vehicle age Is predicted to
decline as age Increases, see Figure 7.4. Separate relationshipswere
estimated for cars and light goods vehicles but, as it happens, the
predicted age coefficientseffects are identicalto 3 significant figures,
each doubling of vehicle age being associatedwith a 24 percent increase in
parts cost per 1,000 km. In the Kenyan and Caribbean studies' results the
effect of vehicle age Is very much more marked. It Is unclear whether the
exponent of 1.0 on vehicle age was estimatedor assumed In producing the
Kenyan and Caribbean equations. Redefining age to be survey midpoint age
(which It is as reported here but not as estimated in the studies) and re-
estimating these equations gives disappointing results (for instance,for
the Kenyan data R2 drops from 0.92 to 0.44 though Interestinglythe
roughness coefficlent Is virtually unchanged). It seems that the estimated
age effects from the Kenyan and Caribbean studies are somewhat fragile.
The Brazil study age effects are In line with those obtained for other
vehicle classes In Brazil and in India and seem more reasonable,for If
parts consumption really does double with every doubling of a vehicle's age
then optimal vehicle lifetimeswill be very short.
The age effects estimated in the Kenyan and Caribbean studies are
very large. In Chapter 8, In Part liI, we examine the Implicationsthat
the studies' maintenanceequations have for vehicle scrapping decisions in
order to obtain information concerning depreciation and Interestcosts.
When malntenance costs become large, owners will optimally scrap vehicles
and replace them with new vehicles which incur low maintenance costs. For
Indian and Brazilian vehicles, predicted vehicle lives are rather long,
probably because maintenance costs are understated by the studies'
equations due to neglect of accident costs, omission of small maintenance
expendituresand for other reasons discussed in detail In Chapter 8. For
Kenyan vehicles (except buses) and for Caribbean vehicles, predicted
vehicle lives, in kilometers,are very short indeed,because of the steep
rise In costs with vehicles' kilometer ages that these studies' equations
predict.
So far as the Caribbean vehicles are concerned, this may be due to

confusion of the effects of calendar and kilometer ageing. The vehicles
studied In the Caribbean achieved very low annual utilization,around
10,000-25,000kilometers per year. All the vehicles (cars and trucks) in
the CarIbbean study that had travelled over 100,000 kilometerswere 5 or
more years old and It Is possible that these older vehicles Incurred
substantialmaintenancecosts because of calendar related age effects, due,
for example, to corrosion. Age in kilometers and age in years are quite
closely correlated In the Caribbean study's data sets, so that on
regressingparts costs on either kilometer or calendar age significant,
positive coefficientsare obtalned. This suggests that It would be unwise
to extrapolate the Caribbean study's maintenance equations to high vehicle
kilometer ages. In Chapters 8 and 9, where total operating cost
calculationsare performed, the Caribbean study's maintenanceequations are
only employed to predict costs in a low utilizatlonenvironment, In which
high kilometer ages do not arise.
Table 7.4: Maintenance Parts Cost Predictions: Cars and Light Goods,
against Roughness and Vehicle Age by Study. Entries In Table
Are Values of P/VP
RUC STUDY
Road Roughness Vehide Kenya Caribbean India Brazil Brazil

B IRI Age Cars Light Goods
(mmfksm)(m/km) (000 kmn)
50 138 - - 149 321

2000 2.8 100 217 - 91 185 397
1S0 296 - - 210 450
200 374 - 229 491
50 297 137 _ 192 352

3000 4.0 100 465 255 108 238 436
150 633 373 _ 270 494
200 802 491 _ 295 540
50 455 289 - 246 387

4000 5.1 100 713 538 127 305 479
150 971 787 - 346 543
200 (1230) 1036 - 378 593
50 613 441 - 316 426

5000 6.3 100 962 821 151 391 527
150 (1311) 1201 - 569 597
200 _ 1581 - 484 652
50 772 593 - 405 467

6000 7.4 100 (1210) 1104 179 502 578
150 (1648) 1615 - 569 655
200 - - - 621 716
50 930 745 - 520 513

7000 8.5 100 (1459) 1387 212 644 635
150 (1988) (2029) - 730 719
200 - - _ 797 786
50 - 897 - 667 564

6000 9.5 100 - 1670 251 826 698
150 - (2443) - S36 791
200 - - 1(1023) 864
Nots: "( )" indicates number out of range of study observations.

-" " indicates not available.
Table 7.5: Percentage Increases In Maintenance Parts Costs per 1,000 km on

Changing (a) Road Roughness, (b) Vehicle Age
% Increase in Parts Cost per 1000 kim.
(a) (b)
Study HighwayType Increasing Roughness Doubling
by 1000mm/km Vehicle Age
Kenya, Cars and Smooth 73%

Light Goods (2500mm/kmi)
Average 35%
(4000mm/kmi)
Caribbean, Cars Smooth 250%

and Light Goods (2500mm/km)
Average 35%
(4000mm/kmi)
Brazil, Cars ALL 28% 24%
Brazil, Light Goods ALL 10% 24%
India, Cars ALL 18%
Notes: (1) Calculatedassuming base age = 50,000km.

This sort of explanation of large kilometer age effects does not

seem to apply to the Kenyan study results, for in Kenya vehicle utilization
was not particularly low. The Brazil study age effects reported above are
not particularly large and are in line with those obtained for other
vehicle classes In India and in Brazil.
7.3.2 Maintenance Parts Costs: Buses
The equations for bus maintenance parts consumption as reported in

the studies are given in Appendix A. Results are available only for the
Indian, Brazilian, and Kenyan studies. The equations are reported in Table
7.6 and graphed against roughness for fixed vehicle age In Figure 7.5 and
against vehicle age for fixed roughness in Figure 7.6. Predictions are
given In Tables 7.7 and 7.8.
In all the three studies which report results for buses, wide
ranges of vehicle ages were observed. In both Kenya and Brazil, data on
maintenance costs were obtained from buses over one million kilometers old.
So, for this vehicle class It is possible to obtain precise estimates of
the effect of vehicle age on maintenance costs and in this respect the
three studies agree. As with the Brazil car data, the rate of Increase of
parts costs with vehicle age Is found to decrease as vehicles age. Many
owners make major maintenance expenditures when buses are between 350,000
and 500,000 km old, thereafter incurring a reduced flow of maintenance
expenditures. This discontinuity In maintenance expenditures associated
with the rebuilding of engines and/or vehicles tends to be smoothed over in
user survey data since different vehicles receive this treatment at
different ages. Examining Table 7.7, which gives percentage Increases in
parts cost per kilometer attendant on doubling vehicle age, we see that the
three studies are in broad agreement concerning the lifetime progression of
maintenance costs, every doubling of vehicle age being associated with an
Increase In parts consumption of between 30 and 40 percent. The Kenyan and
Brazilian age coefficients are virtually identical but the Indian age
coefficient is lower than the Brazilian age coefficient and the difference
Is, statistically, highly significant.
The Indian and Brazilian studies are in broad agreement concerning

the Influence of road roughness, predicting an effect smaller than that
found for either cars or trucks. The Brazilian and Indian roughness
coefficients differ by an amount that is statistically Insignificant. The
Kenyan study predicts large effects for roughness. It Is difficult to
reconcile this substantial difference. The Brazilian and Indian studies
predict an Increase of only around 6 percent In parts cost per 1,000 km
with every 1,000mm/km increase in road roughness, while the Kenyan study
predicts increases in parts costs of the order of 30 percent for a
1,000mm/km increase on rough routes and as high as 70 percent for the same
roughness increase on smooth routes. The range of roughness observed in
Kenya (2,440mm/km - 4,430mm/km for the bus parts data set) Is very
substantially narrower than that observed in India (3,000mm/km -
12,000mm/km) or In Brazil (1,300mm/km - 11,500mm/km) and extrapolating the
Kenyan relationship to roads rougher than 7,500mm/km Is not recommended.
Figure 7.5: Maintenance Parts (P/VP) versus Roughness (R): Buses
P/VP
160
140 K
120
100
80 , - ,,.
60/_,-'
40
20
. R,BI
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
i I I i I I R, IRI
2.8 5.1 7.4 9.5 12.0 14.0
Equations: B = Brazil
I = India
K = Kenya
Units: P Parts Cost (monetary units per 103 km)

VP New Vehicle price (10s monetary units)
R: Road roughness BI (mm/km), IRI (m/km)
K: Vehicle age (103 km)
Variables not plotted: K: Vehicle age = 350,000km.

C: Average degrees of curvature = 1500 /krn
RF Rise plus fall = 20rn/km
W: Pavementwidth = 5.5m.
Table 7.6: Maintenance Parts Cost Equations: Buses
Sudy Equation
India P = exp{1.252 + .OO52S6R + .000282C + .00675RF+ 2.OOIW)K,358.
Brazil P = exp[1.607 + .O000647R)K-483.
Kenya P = 4-2.12 + .0019R)(K460)0 . 5 .
P = Parts cost (monetary units per 1O3 km).

VP = New vehicle price (1lo monetary units)
R = Road roughness Ul (mmfkm)
K = Vehicle age at survey midpoint (103km)
C = Average degrees of curvature (°/km)
RF = Rise plus fall (m/km)
W = Pavement width (m)
It Is doubtful whether vehicle owners could recoup from their customers the
high maintenance costs predicted by the Kenya equation on roads rougher
than this.
In the Indian study some Influences for highway geometry and

pavement width can be detected and these appear In the equations given In
Table 7.6. Introducing measures of both vertical and horizontal geometry
results In large standard errors for estimated coefficients because of high
correlation between rise + fall and average degrees of curvature In the
India data. Collectively the geometry measures explain a small but
significant proportion of the variation in parts costs though this Is not
evident from examination of reported standard errors. Other coefficients
are altered little as geometry measures are included.
Increases In gradient or curvature and decreases In pavement width

are each associated with Increases in parts costs. Every lOm/km increase
In rise + fall Is predicted to Increase parts costs by 7 percent and every
1000 /km increase In average degrees of curvature Is predicted to Increase
parts costs by 3 percent. Thus even moving from one extreme of the Indian
survey data to another and Increasing average degrees of curvature from
00 /km to 1,0000 /km Is predicted to Increase parts consumption by only 33
percent. However, moving from flat straight highways (say, rise + fall -
lOm/km, average degrees of curvature - 500 /km) to steep curving highways
(rise + fall - 70m/km, average degrees of curvature - 1,0000 /km) results In
a predicted Increase In parts costs of 96 percent which Is substantial.
Reducing pavement width from 7m to 5m Is predicted to Increase parts costs
per km by 12 percent, a further reduction to 4m resulting In a further 11
percent Increase In parts costs.
MAINTENANCECOSTS 245
Table 7.7: Maintenance Parts Costs (P/VP): Buses
RUC STUDY
Road Roughness Vehicle

1
india( ) f Brazil Kenya
Bl IRI Age
(mm/km) (mlkim) (000 km)
100 37 56 45
400 60 109 77
3000 4.0 700 73 143 99
1000 83 170 117
100 41 64 93
400 67 125 158
5000 6.3 700 82 163 203
1000 93 194 (240)
100 45 73 141
400 74 142 (240)
7000 8.5 700 91 116 (308)
1000 103 221 (364)
100 50 83 l19
400 82 161 (321)
9000 10.6 700 101 211 -
1000 114 251 -
1010 56 94 -
400 92 184 -
11000 12.6 700 112 241 -
1000 127 286 -
(1) Assuming: Rise plus all = 2Cm/km

0
Average degrees of curvature = 150 /km
Pavement width = 5.5rm.
For each increase (decrease) of lOmikm rise plus tall multiply by 1,07 (0.935). For each
0
increase (decrease) of 100 k/kn average degrees of curvature multiply by 1.029 (0.972).
Indicates out of range of study obssrvations.
Table 7.8: Percentage Increases In Parts Consumption: Buses
Study Highway Increaing Doubling Increasing Increing Decreaing

Type Roughness Vehicle Rise plus Average Pavement
by I Age Fall by Curvature Width
1o0minm/km_ lOm/km by 1000 Sm - 4m
India . ALL 5% 28% I 7% 3% 11%
Brzil ALL 7% 40% _

- _
1
Kenya' ) Smooth 72% 37%
(2000mm/kin)
Average 42% 37% _ _

(35ODmm/km)
Rough 26% 37% _ _

-
(5000mm/km) _ .
Notes: (1) Assuming initial age 400,000nm.

246 MAINTENANCECOSTS
Figure 7.6: MaintenanceParts Cost (P/VP) versus Vehicle Age (K): Buses
P/VP B
180K
160-
140
120-
100
60 -I
40 /'
20
K
200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Eaustimm: B = Brzil
I = Indla
K = Kenya
Unitx: P: PawtsCost (monetary units per 103 km)

VP: New Vehce price (10s monetary unts)
R: Road roughnes S (mm/km). IRI (m/km)
K : Vehice age (10 3 km)
Varible not ottd: R Road roughnes = 4000 D (mm/km). 8.1 (m/km)

K Vehcle ag = 350,000km.
C: Average deg of curvature = 1C0°/km
RF: Ris plus all = 20m/km
W: Pavement width = 5.5m.
7.3.3 Maintenance Parts Costs: Trucks
All four vehicle operating cost studies report equations with

which to predict truck maintenance parts costs but In many respects these
equatlons are less satisfactory than those obtained for buses. Two major
problems arise when analysing truck maintenance data. First, truck
maintenance costs are Inherently more variable than bus maintenance costs,
largely because trucks, unlike buses, are engaged in diverse types of
business. Maintenance expenditures alter substantlally as we move from
trucks engaged In, say, gasoline transportation to trucks engaged In, say,
haulage of aggregates. Since type of business varies more across companies
than across Individual vehicles wlthin companies, this suggests that
fruitful results might be obtained from examining the relationships between
within company variations In routes and within company variations in
maintenance expenditures.
Unfortunately, rather little useful information emerges from such

an analysis because most surveyed truck operators were located in
relatively compact geographical areas. So when we come to examine within
company varlations in route characteristics we find that this variation Is
often too small to produce accurate estimates of the effects of highway
characteristics on maintenance parts costs. We are forced then to work
with the rather variable cost data available at the company level.
Unfortunately, we then run the risk of associating cost differentlais that
occur largely at the company level with variation In highway
characteristics at the company level when In fact the cost differentials at
this level may be due to type of business. Slnce user cost surveys
typically examine only a rather small number of companies there Is the
danger that companies may be curiously disposed over highways of different
types, leading to a "correlation" between type of business and highway
characteristics.
In order to obtain usable equations with which to predict truck

maintenance parts costs we have had to modify to some extent equations as
reported in two of the studies. The equations as reported In the studies
are given In Appendix A where we present the reasoning that leads to the
equations reported here in Table 7.9.
The first point to note Is that the studies differ in their

treatment of the effect of vehicle specification. The Indian study
equation Includes gross vehicle weight as an explanatory variable and
applies In principle to vehicles In the weight range 8 tons - 28 tons
though most of the vehicles providing data were within the 10 - 16 tons
range. The Indlan study uses the logarithm of parts consumption as the
dependent variable and coefficients on highway characteristics like
roughness can be Interpreted In terms of percentage changes In parts costs
attendant on given changes In highway characteristics. Typical net and
gross vehicle weights observed In the studies are given in Table 7.12. In
the Brazilian study equation, as originally estimated, trucks of different
types (2-axle, 3-axle, tipping (all 2-axle) and semi-trailer tractors) were
allowed to generate different Intercepts In the linear parts cost,
Table 7.9: Maintenance Parts Cost Equatlons: Trucks
Stdy Truck Equation

Type
Inda ALL P = exp(0.48 + .000143R + 3.4*3GW .0531 GVW)K340.
Brazil 2-avxe P = (1.931 + .00864R)K-371.
3 1
Brazil Tipping P = (4.490 + .00S36R)K 7 .
VP
1
Brazil 3-axle P = (11.168 + .00717R)K.37 .
Brzil Semi-trailer P = (13.562 + .00386RK,371.

Tractors VP
Caribbean ALL P = (-. 54 + .00316R - I I I0021R 2 ) (K6)
Kenya ALL P = (0.48 + .00037R)(K.23)
Notes : See Appendix 7.1 tor equations as reported, summery statistics etc.
P = Maintenance parts cost (monetary units per 103 kn)
VP = New vehicle price (105 monetary units)
R = Road roughnes, 81 (mm/akm)
K = Vehicle age at survey mid point (103 km)
W = Pavement width (m)
GVW = Gross vehice weight (t)
roughness equation. After division through by vehicle prices which vary

over truck types the equations' slopes and Intercepts become specific to
truck type. The Kenyan and Caribbean studies address the problem of
merging different sized vehicles Into a single truck data set for analysis
by using the ratio of parts costs to vehicle prices as the dependent
varlable.
In the Brazilian survey equations the maintenance parts costs for

semi trailers relate to the tractor unit only. Trailer maintenance parts
costs were estimated at around one-third of tractor parts costs, though it
should be noted that the data available relate to only 34 tractor-trailer
combinations. The difficulty here Is that trailers rarely remain
associated with a since vehicle so that It Is difficult to obtain rellable
Information on characteristics of routes travelled by trailers. The other
studies did not cover semi trailers though the Kenya study does contaln
some truck-trailer combinations. Most of the Caribbean surveys' trucks
were relatively light.
Of the equations reported In Table 7.9 only that obtained in the

Indian study Is non-linear. An exponential equation was estimated and
reported in the Brazilian study but It was found to extrapolate badly and
was abandoned In favor of the linear form reported here. All the studies
report a multiplicative age effect, those obtained in Brazil and India
being similar and predicting a 25-30 percent Increase In parts costs per km
with every doubling of vehicle age. The Kenyan and Caribbean equations
Incorporate a linear age effect which In practice cannot be extrapolated
far without predicting unrealistically high parts consumption. All the
Caribbean study's truck data comes from vehicles with very low annual
utilization. In part, the large kilometer age effects predicted by the
Caribbean truck maintenance cost equation may be due to confusion of the
effects of calendar related and kilometer related ageing.
The equations In Table 7.9 are graphed against road roughness for
fixed vehicle age In Flgure 7.7 and against vehicle age for fixed roughness
In Figure 7.8. Predictions are given In Tables 7.10 and 7.11. Inspecting
Figure 7.9 and recalling that the extent of a graphed line In these
diagrams Is a rough Indication of the range of the explanatory variable In
the study data set producing the line, we see that in the Kenyan and
Caribbean surveys trucks were young relative to those covered In the other
studies, vehicles In these surveys being generally less than 300,000 km old
at the survey midpoint. For more Information on ranges see Appendix A.
All the equations include road roughness as an explanatory

variable. The coefficients on roughness differ somewhat, In part because
of the different orders of magnitude of the dependent variable P/VP across
countries. Average P/VP Is, for trucks In India around half the value
found for trucks In Brazil for example. Comparing percentage increases in
parts costs per 1,000 kilometers attendant on increasing road roughness by
1,000 mm/km (see Table 7.11) we do find rather similar results from all the
studles with the exception of the Caribbean study. Using the Kenyan,
Indlan, and Brazilian equations we find that parts costs Increase by from
15 to 21 percent on increasing roughness by 1,000 mm/km on a moderately
good route with roughness around 4,500 mm/km. The Caribbean study predicts
an 86 percent Increase In the same situation. It Is Interesting to note
that these Increases are larger than those found for buses (at least in the
Indian and Brazilian studies). Loaded trucks generally have higher centres
of gravity than buses resulting In rolling and pitching which may lead to
faster component failure. And, of course, overloading Is far more common
In truck than In bus transportatlon and overloaded vehicles may be more
sensitive to roughness changes.
The roughness coefficients obtained In the studies are each only

determined to within + 35-40 percent (calculating approximate 95 percent
confidence Intervals) so that the sorts of differences found In Table 7.11
are, with the exception of the Caribbean study, consistent with common
roughness Influence, costs increasing by around 15-20 percent with 1,000
mm/km Increases In roughness on average routes. As for the car vehicle
class the roughness effects for trucks are found to be large In the
Table 7.10: Maintenance Parts Costs (P/VP): Trucks
1
RUC SrUDY INDIAM ) BRAZIL CARIBBEAN KENYA
ROAD VEHICLE T
ROUGHNESS AGE I Semi Trailer
B IRI (000kn) 2) 2
TRUCK TYPE GVW=12t( VW=is6t( ) 2-axle 3-axle Tipping Tractors i ALL ALL
(mmlkm) (m/km) ___ -
100 43 53 157 180 j 63 139 111 196

3000 4.0 400 68 85 263 302 1 273 I 232 426 636
700 83 102 323 371 336 286 - -
1000 93 115 - - 326 _ _
100 57 70 255 260 256 181 425 287

5000 6.3 400 91 113 426 434 427 303 1628 (932)
700 110 136 524 534 526 373 - _
1000 124 154 - - - 426 - _
100 76 93 337 339 348 224 561 378

7000 8.5 400 121 150 563 567 582 375 (2147) (1299)
l 700 146 181 693 697 716 461 - _
_ 1000 165 204 - - -526
O:) 100 101 124 - _ _ _ - _

9000 10.6 400 161 199 _ _ _ _ _ _
700 195 241 _ _ _ _
- _ _
1000 220 272 _ -_ _ ----
100 134 166 _ I _ - ! - _ _

11000 12.6 400 215 265 _ _ _
- _
71700 260 321 _ ___ [ _ __
| 1000 293 j362 _ | __ _ _ __
Notes: Numbers in parentheses are out of range for their studies.
(1) Assuming pavement width = 5.5m. For 4m pavement width multiply by 1.27, for 7m pavement width multiply by 0.87
(2) Assuming same vehile specification operated at different loads.
MAINTEHANCE COSTS 251
Table 7.11: Percentage Increase In Parts Consumption: Trucks
Increasing Doubling
Study Vehicle Type Highway Type Roughness Vehicle
by 0OOOmm/km Age
India ALL TRUCKS ALL 15% 26%
Brazil 2-axle Smooth (3000mm/km) 31%

Average (4500mm/kmi) 21%
Rough (6000mm/km) 16%
3-axle Smooth (3000mm/km) 22%

Average (4500mm/kmi) 17% 29%A
Rough (6000mm/kmi) 13%
Tipping Smooth (3000mm/kmi) 28%

Average (4500mm/km) 20%
Rough (6000mm/km) 15%
Semi Trailer Smooth (3000mm/km) 15%

Tractors Average (4500mm/kmi) 15%
Caribbean ALL Smooth (3000mm/km) 181%

Average (4500mm/kmi) 86% 94%(1)
Kenya ALL Smooth (3000mm/km) 23%

Average (4500mm/km) 17% 81%(1)
Rough (Sooomm/km) 14%
(1) Assuming initial age = 100,000km.

Figure 7.7: Malntenance Parts (P/VP) versus Roughness (R): Trucks
P/VP ,c
900 -
/Bo
800 -/
700 /
/ /K
600 /
1'/
500,
400 - )f AXo
300
- s
200 3 - - -
100BT - - _____.. =_- 16
BT ------ -- ---
B
2
10 w R, BI
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Ii I I I I I I I R, IRI
2.8 5.1 7.4 9.5 12.0
EBato
2 :Brazil, 2-axle.
83 : Brazil, 3-axle
BT :Brazil, tipping
BS :Brazil, Semi trailer tractor
C Caribbean
16 : India, 16 tonne gross vehicle weight
l12 : India, 12 tonne gross vehicle weight
K : Kenya
Units P Parts cost (monetary units per 103 km)

VP: New vehicle price (los monetary units)
R : Road roughness 81 (mm/Dim), IRI (m/km)
K : Vehicle age (103 kim)
Variables not Plotted
K: Vehicle age = 180,000km

W Pavementwidth = S.5m.
Figure 7.8: Maintenance Parts (P/VP) versus Vehicle Age (K): Trucks
P/VP K
500 /
400
B3
300 / - - - _B_---
200 -
~~~~~'f ,/c-~~~~~~~~~~~-------------16
I.----.
. ~ ~ ....----------------- 1
4--- ~ ~ ~ -------- -------
100 2 00 300 400 500 6 00 700 800 90'0 10,00
EAuations B2 Brazil, 2-axle.

83 Brazil. 3-axle
BT Brazil, tipping
BS Brazil, Semi trailer tractor
C Caribbean
'16 India, 16 tonne gross vehicle weight
'12 India, 12 tonne gross vehicle weight
K Kenya
Units P Parts cost (monetary units per 103 km)

VP New vehice price (105 monetary units)
R Road roughness Bi (mm/km). IRI (m/km)
K Vehicle age (103 km)
Variables not Plotted R Road roughnes = 4000mm/km

W Pavementwidth = 5.5m.
Figure 7.9: Maintenance Labor Hours (L) versus Maintenance Parts (P/VP)
Cars: India
L
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20-
15. India
Uoita: L Labor hours(hours pw 10Wxkm)

P Prts coat (montry unit per lo0km)
10 - VP Now vahldb pric (105 monawry undt)
R Road roughness U (mmtkm)
5,
P/VP
100 260 30b 450 5 O'
Table7.12: TypicalGrossand Net VehicleWeights In BrazilianStudy

by TruckType
VehIce 1TaWe
Weight Grows Repmsnftativs
Category Ctonrnee VehicleWeight Maks/MO"s
1. 2-AYJO 4.75 ~~~13-15MercedesBenz

L1313IL1513
Flat
2. flppr 5.5so 13-15 Mercedese

Benz
LK1313/LK1513
Dump
3. 3-Axsa 5n
L.13513(2)ereds
1.20136 x 2
Flst
4. Sei-trller 14.70(3) 40 Sas113
Notes:
1.This categorYCan Prtat2WhtGWi 4fombtmrayrust t. n

6 x 2 form.
2. The tWO50
Sale "I fghM fd0 hr YO4ddt hng rr o6x2
tVe racomafieded 3W ~ti ofkiisnxei185tn .
3. o1m1rllingTrectcf75tn"Sdtre4ASfttalr72tnm
Caribbean. As noted In Section 7.3.1, Hide (1982) ascribes this to the

Influence of surface type.
The Indian study equation gives information on the effect of

pavement width and gross vehicle weight, parts costs increasing by around 5
percent for every 1 tonne Increase in gross vehicle weight and by around 27
percent on reducing pavement width from 5.5m to 4m.
7.4 MAINTENANCE LABOR COSTS: ESTIMATED EQUATIONS
In this section we present estimates of equations relating

maintenance labor quantity per unit distance to parts consumption per unit
distance and vehicle and highway characteristics. Equations as originally
reported and amendments introduced to achieve a common reporting style are
documented in Appendix B.
The Kenyan study reports equations for the composite variable

LH/(PC/VP) where LH is labor hours per kilometer, PC is parts cost per
kilometer and VP Is new vehicle price. To produce the equations reported
here, PC/VP Is multiplied through Into the right hand side, and the
resulting dependent variable, denoted L, Is expressed In labor hours per
1,000 kilometers. The Brazilian study reports equations for labor cost in
Cruzeiros per 1,000 kilometers at January 1976 prices. Here a figure of 13
Cruzeiros per hour has been applied to convert labor costs to labor hours.
Representative vehicle prices (Table 7.2) have been used to express the
Brazilian study equations in terms of L and P/VP which was the dependent
variable used In reporting parts consumption In the previous section.
The Indlan study data were re-analysed (Chesher 1983) using the
original labor hours data and the resulting equations are reported In this
section, using as dependent variable: L expressed In labor hour per 1,000
kilometers. As with the Brazilian study, representative vehicle prices
have been appiled so that In this section the ratio of parts cost to
vehicle price, P/VP, rather than parts cost Is an explanatory variable.
The Caribbean study reports in terms of labor costs and wage rates are not
provided. With the exception of the Caribbean study, all results presented
In this section use L, labor hours per 1,000 kilometers as the dependent
variable and P/VP, the ratio of parts cost to vehicle price, as an
explanatory variable.
The Indian and Brazilian equations relate labor hours to a power

function of parts costs, the equations taking the form L - a(P/VP)P.
Uniformly p is found to be less than 1 varying from 0.47 (Indian buses) to
0.65 (Indian trucks), the Brazilian study numbers lying within this range.
Increases In parts costs are predlcted to lead to Increases in labor hours
but at a decreasing rate. This may reflect the relatively capital
Intensive nature of major repairs and the substitutability of maintenance
"labor" for maintenance "capital" though It may also reflect the presence
of fixed labor inputs. The coefficient a Is found, for some vehicle
classes, to be affected by road roughness. In the Indian and Brazlilan
studies where roughness effects were found, Increases In roughness lead to
Increases in labor hours, holding parts costs fixed, suggesting that

maintenance activities for vehicles on relatively rough routes are
relatively labor intensive. In the Kenyan study roughness effects are
reported but these operate In the opposite direction, relatlvely less labor
at given parts cost being applied on relatively rough routes.
The results are presented here by vehicle class. We note now that
the Caribbean study reports a single relationship, obtained from a small
sample of garage work, which gives labor cost equal to 0.45 times parts
cost. Turning to the other three studies we consider first the maintenance
labor relationships for cars and light goods vehicles.
The equations for car maintenance labor costs are given in Table
7.13 and graphed In Figures 7.9 and 7.10. The Kenyan equation, which
relates to cars and light goods vehicles, Is fairly close to the equation
for Brazilian cars. The striking feature In these graphs Is the extent to
which Indian study labor hours exceed those for the other studies and this
Is a feature of the results for all vehicle classes. In Table 7.14 gives
approximate averages of labor hours per 1,000 km by vehicle class for the
Indian, Brazilian, and Kenyan maintenance labor data sets. The Kenyan and
Brazilian labor hours are apparently of similar orders of magnitude, for
example, from 3 to 5 hours per 1,000 km being applied to buses or medium
trucks. The Indian labor hours data are around three times greater.
To some extent this must reflect differences In wage rates. The

ratio of the cost of 2,000 hours (around one year) of mechanics' time to
new vehicle price Is about 0.024 In India and about 0.19 In Brazil, around
eight times higher, so we cannot be surprised to find labor hours per 1,000
km differing between the two countries by factors of the order of three.
However, the differences In labor costs per 1,000 km are less startling.
What are factors of three or so In terms of labor hours are factors of less
than two In terms of labor costs relative to vehicle prices.
Doubling parts consumption Is predicted to Increase labor hours

per 1,000 km by 50 percent using Indian study results, by 46 percent using
Brazilian study results (for cars and light goods vehicles) and by 100
percent using Kenyan study results. As noted eariler roughness effects go
In different directions In the Brazilian and Kenyan equations, a 1,000
mm/km Increase In roughness being predicted In the Brazilian study to lead
to a 10 percent Increase In labor hours per 1,000 km, parts costs being
held constant. Of course In practice roughness Increases lead to parts
cost Increases so that there are two Influences for roughness to be
considered.
Equations for maintenance labor hours for buses are given In Table
7.15 and graphed In Figures 7.11 and 7.12. As for cars, the Indian
predlcted labor hours are considerably higher than those predicted using
the Kenyan or Brazilian study equations. However, the Brazilian and Indian
equations are In agreement concerning the effect of doubling parts costs
(predicted to Increase labor hours by 39 percent using the Indian study
equation and by 43 percent using the Brazilian study equation). As before
Table 7.13: Malntenance Labor Equations: Cars and Light Goods Vehicles
Study Class Equation
India Cars L = 1.347(P1VP)-"4.
Brzil Cars L = 0.142(PIVP) 5 4 7 .
Brazil Light goods L = 0.166 exp(.624TG + .0000923R})(PVP) 5 1 .
Kenya Cars L = (.00851 - .00000078R}(P/VP}.
L = Labor hours (hours per 1O3knm)

P = Parts cost (monetary units per 103krn).
VP = New vehicle price (io5 monetary units)
R = Road roughness Bi (mm/km)
= 1 if vehicle is gasoline fueled
= if vehicle is diesel fueled
Table 7.14: Average Maintenance Labor Hours per 1,000km
Study
Vehicle Class India Brazil Kenya(a).
Cars 27 4
Light goods _ 12 0.7(b)
Buses 28 9 2.1
Medium trucks 32 10 5.0
Heavy trucks _ 32 _
(a) Approximate figures obtained using available information.
(b) Cars and light goods vehicles.

Figure 7.10: Maintenance Labor Hours (L) versus Maintenance Parts

Cost (P/VP)-Cars. Light Goods, Utilities: Brazil, Kenya
18 B
16.
14.
12 -
10
8 .
6 /
B
/~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
/ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~K
4
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Equations: BU = Brazil, utilities

BC = Brazil, cars
K = Kenya, cars and light goods
Unit: L : Labor hours (hours per 1000km)

P Parts cost (monetary units per 1000km)
VP Now vehicle price (105 monetary units)
R : Road roughness Bl (mm/km)
Variabes not Plotted: R = Road roughness = 4000 BI mm/km (not Brazil cars)
TG = Type of fuel indicator = 1 (gasoline. Brazil utilities only).
the Kenyan equation Is linear In parts costs. The Indian and Brazilian
study equations both predict Increasing labor hours, parts costs held
constant, with Increasing road roughness, a 1,000 mm/km Increase In road
roughness being predicted to lead to a 10 percent Increase In labor hours
using the Brazilian study equation and a 4 percent Increase In labor hours
using the Indian study equation, before the effect of roughness on parts
cost Is considered.
Table 7.15: Maintenance Labor Equations: Buses
Study Equation
47
India L = 2.625 exp{.175G + .0000426RI(P/VP) 3.
51t
Brazil L = 0.763 exp(.OOOlOR}(P/VP* 7.
Kenya L = (.0264 - (PVP}).

00000078R)
L = Labor hours (hours per 103km)

P = Parts cost (monetary units per 103km).
VP = New vehicle price (105 monetary units)
R = Road roughness 81 (mm/km)
G = 1 it vehicle is government owned
= a if vehicle is privately owned.
Flgure 7.11: MaintenanceLabor Hours (L) versus Maintenance

Parts Cost (P/VP), Buses: India
60 -. 10
55
50
45
40 I
35 --.--
30
~~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
25. S
25
20 ~~~~ 7 ~~~ggjatgm I1lo n=dls,roughness= 10,000 mmlkmn.

17 = India, roughne = 7,000 mm/km.
14 = Indi, roughness = 4,000 wml/h.
15
* X uL Labor hours (hou pw 1,000 1km)
10 P Pos :oat (montwy unAb per 10km)
10 VP:Nwvk pic (105 oom unf)
R road roughne BU (mm/li)
5 Vlblew not Pltted: a Ownershipnodlooror0 (prloa)
P/VP
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Cost (P/VP), Buses: Kenya, Brazil
L
40 10
_ 10
35 ,
30
z~ ~~ ~~~ ~-~~~~~~~~~-
~~~~~~~~
< - -/ -3
25 ~~ ~~~-
20-
25 ,,,' -/ -
/ -i t W
r/ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~10
- B /l, rogns "10.0 = m ihr.=10 ,
5 -lhm, B 4 S o o8/ = 4, 0 .
S.L t ULdw Lm:L (oune 1pw,D ion)

P
10 : P = SbU ero = 7.000u
tO..,lM)
K VP: Nowvh_ p_b (106 Aow unft)
R : rad roughnes Bl tw_{bl)
. , ., P/-P
50 100 150 200 250 300
Equatoons for maintenance labor hours for trucks are given in

Table 7.16 and graphed in Figures 7.13 and 7.14. As for the other vehicle
classes, Indlan labor hours are higher than those observed In Brazil and
Kenya but comparing the Brazilian and Indian results, the effect of, say,
doubling parts cost is not too dissimilar, a 57 percent Increase In labor
hours per 1,000 km being predicted using the Indian equation, 43 percent
using the Brazilian study equation. No roughness effects were found using
the Brazilian study data and only small effects in the Indian study. Again
the small effect found there Is In the opposite direction to that found In
the Kenyan study though the Kenyan data Is extremely limited in the
information that It provides on roughness Influences (see Appendix B).
7.5 THE EFFECT OF HIGHWAY GEOMETRY ON MAINTENANCE COSTS
One notable feature of the results presented In Sections 7.3 and

7.4 Is the rather limited Influence that highway geometry Is predicted to
have on vehicle maintenance costs. Only the Indian road user survey
reports effects for geometry - they are not very well determined, and it is
difficult to distinguish the effects of vertical and horizontal geometry.
One's first feeling Is that geometry "should" affect maintenance costs
expressed per unit distance but the results of four Independent road user
surveys suggest that the Influence of geometry Is negligible. Is this
because of some deficiency In these studies, or Is It In fact true that
Figure 7.13: MaintenanceLabor Hours (L) versus MalntenanceParts

Cost (P/VP). Trucks: India
L
90
110
80.
7
70 ..- 4
60.-e-- et~
S. _ P/VP
50 400 150 200 250 300 350 400
Eouaions: Ilo0 = India roughnon = 10, 000 81 nm/kmn.

I17 = India roughness= 7,000 Bl mm/kmn.
14^ = India roughness= 4.000 Bl rmm/km.
Units: L :Lobor hours (hoursper 1 000 kmn)

P :Ports cost (monetry units per 10'km)
VP S Now hkt prbe (10s monetaryunits)
R :road roughness
Bl (mm/km)
V30,abb not Plotbd: S O : Ownerhip indeWor= (private)

TTNK : Trucktype indFator= (non-tanker)

Cost (P/VP), Trucks: Kenya, Brazil
L
50
45 -B ST
40 -
35 -
30.
25 .
/ B 3AX
20 / __
15.
10. / -
P/VP
100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Equations: K Kenya
BST = Brazil, semi trailer tractors.
B3jUt = Brazil, 3-axle vehicles.
B2Axe = Brazil, 2-axle vehicles.
STnp = Brazil, tipping vehicles (2-axle)
LL Labor hours (hours per 1,000 kIm)

P Parts cost (monetary units per 103 km)
VP New vehkle price ( 10 S monetary units)
R road roughness Bi (mm/km)
Vriables not Plotted: R : Roughness= 4,000 13mm/km (Kenya only)

Table 7.16: MaintenanceLabor Equations: Trucks
Study Equation
IndiS L 1.296 exp(.240G + .000025OR+ .191TTNK)(P/VP 654.
5 9
anzu L = (.61T2AX + .76T3A + .466Tp + 1.6WST5)(P-VP)- I .
Kenya (.=0298 - .00O007SR)(P^VP).
L = Laborhours (hoursper 103km)

P = Pat cost (monetaryunits per 10ksn).
VP = New vehile prie (105 monetaryunis)
R = Roadroughne, Bl (mm/km)
G = 1 it vehile is governmertowned
= O if vehicle is privatelyowned.
TTNK =1 itvehicle Is a tanker. 0 otherwie

T2AX = 1 if vehicle is a 2-axle truclk,0 otherwise
T3AX = 1 if vehice Is a 3-axle truck. 0 otherwIe
rT-p = 1 it vehicle Is tippingtruck, 0 otherwise
Tsrr = 1 it vehicle Is semi trailer tractor, 0 otherwise
highway geometry's influence on maintenance costs can be neglected? We

examine these Issues In this section.
Before we proceed It Is most important to note that geometry does

have significant effects on fuel consumption and, of course, on vehicle
speeds. Highways built to poor geometric standards are travelled slowly -
particularly In other than free flow conditlons. So utilization is lower
on such highways and Interest and other fixed costs accruing per year are
spread over fewer kilometers thus ralsing costs per unit output. So to
Justify Improving highways' geometric standards It Is not necessary to
assume that poor highway geometry leads to substantially higher maintenance
costs.
All other things being equal we can surely expect deterioration In

highway geometry to lead to Increases In maintenance costs If vehicle
owners choose to repair all damage done to their vehicles rather than
accept accelerated depreciation. But other things are not equal. In
particular owners will operate their vehicles at slower speeds on hilly or
sinuous routes than they would on flat straight routes and speed reductions
associated with deterioration of geometry may dampen the effect of geometry
on per kilometer maintenance costs.
Owners' decisions regarding loads carried are likely to dampen the

effect of geometry on maintenance costs. At least In truck transportation,
owners can choose the loads that their vehicles carry and In many
developing countries we find vehicles carrying loads above those
recommended by vehicle manufacturers. On hilly routes and on sinuous

routes where ability to accelerate might otherwise seriously be Impaired
owners may choose to reduce the extent of overloading, thereby reducing
their per trip revenues but gaining from the Increase in speed thus
obtained (and so In utilization and in revenues per time period) and
gaining from reductions In maintenance costs.
User surveys typically obtain substantial variation In highway

geometry only by examining vehicles operating In different geographical
regions, some hilly, others flat. To the extent that owners ply routes
with homogeneous geometry (i.e., all flat or all hilly) they can choose
vehicle specifications suited to the routes that they travel so that
geometry effects pass largely through vehicle price. Thus in hilly regions
we may find vehicles with larger capacity engines, perhaps turbocharged,
and we might expect these vehicles to show different, perhaps lower,
maintenance costs than less powerful vehicles whose engines and
transmissions would be over worked operating at speeds that the more
powerful vehicles can attain on such routes. In analysing user survey data
one might attempt to distinguish different vehicle specifications but in
practice the data sets obtained are too small and too variable to allow
this. So what Is estimated is a geometry effect after allowance for
vehicle owners' efforts to dampen geometry effects via appropriate choice
of vehicle.
Choice of speed, load and vehicle can all serve to dampen geometry
effects on maintenance costs and then driver behavior must be considered.
Sinuous routes can be driven so that curves are straightened out - hilly
routes can be driven to some extent in a "roller-coaster" fashion so that
downgrades are used to Increase velocity for coming up grades. And drivers
who keep costs down in this fashion are likely to be rewarded. So It Is at
least possible that the effects of geometry on maintenance costs (though
not necessarily on other costs) are rather small. If they are small then
can they be detected In user survey data?
In Table 7.17 approximate means and ranges for rise + fall and
average degrees of curvature obtained In the four user surveys are given.
The data In user surveys relate to vehicle operations (costs and highway
characteristics) over a period of at least a year, sometimes as long as 2.5
years. Detailed geometry measures are averaged to produce route average
geometry and then averaged again to produce average geometry experienced by
each vehicle. So the geometry measures associated with each user survey
vehicle are very crude Indicators of the conditions actually faced by the
vehicles. Though vehicles may experience extremes of geometry at times,
their average experience tends to be rather uniform and this Is reflected
In the ranges recorded In Table 7.17. Thus In one of the larger surveys,
In Brazil, no vehicle experienced average survey period gradients greater
than 5 percent and most vehicles experienced far more benign conditions.
The Indian survey contains a few vehicles experiencing average gradients
approaching 6 percent and In the Kenyan and Caribbean surveys vehicles were
observed on routes with average gradient as high as 7 percent but there
were relatively few vehicles In these surveys and given the sort of
variation to be expected across vehicles in maintenance cost data, a
considerable mass of Information on routes with extreme geometry would be
Table 7.17: Approximate Means and Ranges of Geometry Measures

In User Cost Surveys
RIb Plus Fall Average Degrees

Study Class No of of Curvature
Vohice (mrn/m) (0/kn)
Min U. Max Min Mean Max
India Care 54 3 10 36 9 107 690

Bus 640 1 15 50 5 150 1021
Trucks 232 1 13 58 8 137 1215
8razil( 1 ) Cars 93 12 28 39 11 46 202

Light goods 65 12 25 46 6 40 328
Buses 449 10 24 39 6 41 189
Truck. 200 10 32 49 7 63 294
Kenya(2) Buse 101 17 33 69 9 12 15

Trucks 66 15 16 39 8 31 45
Caubben Care and Light Goods 32 26 44 60 180 376 600

Trucks 28 23 46 70 160 421 700
(1) Parts consumption data set, ranges are narrower in labor cost data set.
(2) Parts consumption data set.
required to determine geometry effects, particularly If these are In fact

rather small. And If data were obtained on vehicles operating exclusively
on steep routes, so that average gradient exceeded, say, 10 percent, then
we would expect these vehicles' owners to take steps to avoid excessively
high maintenance costs, or thelr customers might be unprepared to pay for
the service they provide.
The situation with respect to curvature Is similar. The Caribbean

survey produces some data on vehicles operating over sinuous routes but
with only around 30 vehicles In each vehicle class no Information on
curvature effects can be obtalned. The Indian survey does produce data on
routes with high curvature and limited Information on geometry effects.
However, the effects found are small. It Is Important when considering the
Indian survey to recognize the effect of congestion and slow moving animal
traffic which may limit the magnitude of curvature effects on these sinuous
routes which are often narrow.
Even If extremes of geometry can be found, disentangling the

effects of gradient and curvature Is exceptionally difficult, because steep
gradients and extreme curvature tend to be associated with each other,
particularly In user survey data. User survey data often comes from
distinct geographical regions, some hilly some flat. Certainly in the

hilly regions we expect to find curved routes as highway designers try to
avoid excessive gradients. The perceived trade off between gradient and
curvature, particularly with regard to vehicle speed and safety, results In
moderate gradients and substantial curvature In hilly regions while In flat
regions there are, of course, negligible gradients and generally neglilgble
to only moderate curvature. This pattern Is apparent In Table 9.18 in
which correlations amongst rlse + fall, and curvature range from 0.85 to
0.93 and the situation is little better In the Caribbean study. At first
sight the Brazilian data set fares better In this respect but recall that
ranges, partIcularly for curvature, In this data set Is very limited. User
survey data exhibits strong multicollinearity, by the nature of survey
designs and of the realities of highway planning. The result Is that,
while on occasions statistically significant coefficients can be obtained
for one of the geometry measures with the other omitted, when both are
Included one Is unable to attribute the cost variation unambiguously to
rise + fall and curvature so that their separate contributions are at best
Inaccurately estimated. This problem Is clearly present In the India bus
maintenance parts data set (see Section 7.4) and was found by the authors
In extensive analysis of the Brazilian study data. On occasions weak and
poorly determined geometry effects were found In the Brazil maintenance
data but no effects sufficiently strong and reliable to recommend for use.
The evidence of the road user surveys In India, Brazil, Kenya, and
the Caribbean Is that the effects of geometry on maintenance costs per
kilometer are virtually undetectable. Where they are found In the India
bus maintenance parts data set, they appear to be rather small, lOm/km
Increases In rise + fall being associated with 7 percent increases In
maintenance parts costs per kilometer, 1000 /km Increases In curvature being
associated with 3 percent increases In maintenance parts costs per
kilometer. The effects on total maintenance costs obtained by feeding
these effects additionally through the labor hours equations are even
smaller.
7.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The four studies provide separate relationships for maintenance

parts costs and maintenance labor costs, the equations for maintenance
labor cost using parts costs as an "explanatory variable." For some
vehicle classes and studies the maintenance labor equations Involve road
roughness as a separate explanatory variable so that to assess the full
effect of roughness on labor costs and on total maintenance costs It Is
necessary to consider both the direct effects estimated In the labor hours
or cost equations and those effects that pass through from the parts costs
equations.
When parts costs are eliminated from the labor costs equations,
the effects of roughness on labor hours are fairly close once allowance is
made for the different orders of magnitude of the labor hours data across
the studies. Table 7.19 shows predicted percentage increases In labor
hours per kilometer attendant on increasing road roughness by 1,000 mm/km.
The Kenyan study predicts somewhat larger Increases than either the
MAINTENANCE
COSTS 267
Table 7.18: SimpleCorrelations
betweenHighwayCharacteristics
In User
Cost Surveys
Study Vehicle NO Of Correlations

Class ~Vehicles
RF xC RF xR Cx R
India Cars 54 .93 .48 .37

Buses 640 .85 .33 .24
Trucks 232 .92 .69 .76
1
ramziI(
) Care 93 .03 -. 74 .02
Light goods 65 .52 -. 24 .34
Buses 449 .03 .04 .10
Trucks 200 .74 -. 03 .59
Kenya(2 ) Buses 101 .74 .72 .33

Trucks 66 -. 26 .52 -. 63
Caribbean Cars and Light Goods 32 .58 .63 .30

Trucks 28 .91 .59 .52
(1) Parts consumptiondata set.

(2) Unweighted.
Table 7.19: PercentageIncreaseIn LaborHoursper kmnon Increasing

Road
Roughnessby 1,000rmm/km
Study VehiceJClass Pecentage Incroeas

in LaborHours per km
Brazil Qua 15%

Light goods 15%
Buses 14%
Trucks(1) 2-axle 13%
3-axle 10%
Tipping 12%
Semi Trailers 7%
India Cars 10%

Buses 7%
Trucks 13%
Kenya(1) cars 23%

Buses 37%
Trucks 16%
(I) Assuming initial roughness 3.500 mm/kmn

268 MAINTENANCE
COSTS
Brazilian or Indian studies. This Is, of course, because of the large

magnitude of the roughness effects on parts consumption In the Kenyan
study, here feeding through Into the labor hours equation. The Indian and
Brazilian study equations predict labor hours per km increasingby from 7
to 15 percent as roughness Increases by 1,000 mm/km on moderately good
quality routes - omitting the expensive Brazilian semi trailers and the
Indian buses, the latter particularlyInsensitiveto roughness- this range
narrows to 10 - 15 percent. The Kenyan figures range from 18 to 37
percent.
For the Brazilian and Indian studies In which new vehicle prices
are available It Is possible to express labor costs as a fractionof new
vehicle price after converting from labor hours using the wage rates of
2.25 Rupees per hour and 13 Cruzeiros per hour for India and Brazil
respectively. Then we can add the resulting equations to those for parts
cost expressed as a fractionof new vehicle price to obtain equations for
malntenance costs (parts plus labor) as a fraction of new vehicle price.
The Indian study predictionsfor maintenance costs fall well below

those found In Brazil but there Is broad agreement between the two studies
concerning the effects of both road roughness and vehicle age on
maintenance costs. Table 7.20 gives predicted percentage Increases In
Table 7.20: Percentage Increase In Maintenance per km on

(a) IncreasingRoad Roughness by 1,000 mm/km
(b) Doubilng Vehicle Age
Percentage increase in M/VP(1).
(a) (b)
Study Vehile Class Increaing Roughness Doubling
from 3500mm/km Vehice
to 4500 mm/km Age
Brazil Cars(2) 24 20
Light goods vehicies( 2 ) 13 18
Buses(3) 9 33
Trucks' 4 ': 2-axle 23 25
3-axle 17 25
Tipping 21 25
Semi Trailers 12 24
India Cars(2) 16
8uses'3 )"5 ' 5 24
Trucks'4) (6) 14 23
(1) M/VP = Maintenance cost (monetary units per 103 km)/vehicle price (1lo monetary units).
(2) Initial age 100,000 km
(3) Initial age 350,000 km
(4) Initial age 180.000 km
(5) C = 1500 /km, RF = 20rn/km, W = 5.5m.
(6) C = 1500 /km, RF = 20m/km, W = 5.5m. GVW = 12t.
maintenance costs attendant on increasing road roughness from 3,500 mm/km

to 4,500 mm/km and on doubling vehicle age from base ages appropriate to
the vehicle classes (100,000 km for cars and light goods vehicles, 350,000
km for buses, 180,000 km for trucks). Buses are least sensitive to
roughness and most sensitive to age once total maintenance costs are
considered but the age effects are very similar across vehicle classes now.
Different base ages have been chosen for this comparison - for each class
they correspond to an initlal age located around one third of the way
through the life of an average vehicle. Apart from the Brazilian buses
which show a relatively large 33 percent increase In malntenance costs on
doubling vehicle age, the remaining classes show increases in maintenance
costs of from 18 to 25 percent.
The roughness effects are fairly similar too. As before buses and
semi trailers show relatively small roughness effects an cars and 2-axle
trucks relatively large effects, the figures obtained for the two studies
and various vehicle classes suggesting an Increase in maintenance costs per
km of around 15 percent when road roughness Increases by 1,000 mm/km.
The Brazilian and Indian studies present similar pictures of

maintenance costs and their dependence upon vehicle and highway conditions.
Geometry has a barely detectable effect on maintenance costs, the major
influence being highway roughness. The Kenyan and Caribbean studies
support this conclusion. The Influence of vehicle age is substantial and
involves an Increase in maintenance costs of around 25 percent with every
doubling of vehicle age. The Kenyan and Caribbean studies provide
conflicting evidence on this magnitude but we are Inclined to discount
their results In this area because of the special conditions prevailing in
the Caribbean and because of the relatively narrow ranges of ages and small
numbers of vehicles observed.
The progression of costs with age Is Influential in determining

owners' scrapping policy and thus the rate of flow of vehicle replacement
costs. These are the subject of the next chapter.
APPENDIX A. MAINTENANCE PARTS EQUATIONS AS REPORTED BY THE FOUR STUDIES
A7.1 Kenya
The equations reported by Hide et al. (1975) are as follows:
PC 1
C (-2.03 + .0018R).1011
VP.K
R(mm/km) 3,200 6,400 3,166

K(103 km) 22 152 81
Source: Hide'et al. (1985).
Buses
PC -
- (-0.67 + .0006R).10
VP.K 1/2
R(mm/km) 2,440 4,430 3,230

K(10 3 km) 85 1,092 477

Medium and heavy goods vehicles
PC (0.48 + .00037R).10 1 1
VP.K
R(mm/km) 2,400 7,500 2,949

3
K(10 km) 48 374 135
PC - Parts cost per km (Kenyan shillings/km)

VP - Price of equivalent new vehicle (Kenyan shilling)
K - Age of vehicle at survey end point (km)
R - Surface roughness (mm/km).
Remarks
The data used In the analysis are a small number of averages of

data (raw vehicle data not reported) from groups of vehicles, presumably
operating under similar conditions and of similar ages. The equatlons fit
the data remarkably well given the sort of variatlon that we might expect
to find In maintenance expenditure data, variation found In the Indian and
Brazilian studies. Of course averages are necessarily less variable than
are the Individual vehicle data used to calculate the averages so that the
reported R2 statistics are higher than those that would have been obtained
had the raw vehicle data been analysed directly (see Chapter 6). Further,
the R2 statistics refer to the amount of variation in PC/VP.K (or K1 /2 for
buses) that is explainable In terms of roughness variation. The R2
statistics would have been different had PC/VP or PC been used as the
dependent variable. Hide et al. (1975) report no standard errors with
which to assess the accuracy with which the roughness coefficlents are
estimated.
In reporting these equatlons In the main text we Introduce an

adJustment so that vehicle age In the equations reported In the main text
Is age at the survey midpoint as In the Indian and Brazilian studies.
Using data reported In Hlde et al. (1975) we calculate average survey
period utillsation In thousands of kilometers per year (U), (see Table
A9.1), and define survey midpoint age as survey endpoint age minus U/2.
Thus In the main text the equations above appear with K replaced by K +
U/2, K now being interpreted as survey midpoint age.
Table A7.1: Average Survey Period Utilisation
Vehicle Class Utillsatlon (1,000 km/year)
Cars and Light Goods 77

Buses 119
Trucks 47
A7.2 Caribbean
The equations reported by Hide (1982) are as follows:
PC P (-5.501 + .00262R).10
VP.K
R 2 _ 0.91 32 vehicles.
R observed In the range: 3,500 < R < 8,000, average R - 4,969

mm/km.
Trucks
PC - (-6.538 + .00316R -
1
.00000021R2)10 11
VP.K
R2 - 0.95 28 vehicles.
R observed in range: 3,000 < R < 7,500, average R - 5,681 mm/km
PC - Parts cost per kilometer Barbados dollars, E. Caribbean
VP - Cost of an equivalent new vehicle dollars as appropriate
K - Age of vehicle In kilometers at survey end point

Remarks
Here the data refer to individual vehicles observed for a one-

year period. The fit of the equations to the data Is remarkably good. So
far as we are aware no averaging has occurred so that the R2 statistics
reported here suggest an even closer relationship between PC/VP.K and
roughness than do the Kenyan results. Less than 10 percent of the between
vehicle variability in PC/VP.K remains to be explained by factors other
than road roughness. Given the inherent randomness of maintenance cost
data there can be at most small effects for highway geometry and no
reliable effects can be found in these data. No standard errors are
reported but we must conclude that the coefficients are very well
determined. The quadratic truck equation predicts decreases In PC/VP.K
with Increases in roughness for roughness exceeding 7,523 mm/km. The
highest value for R observed In the data set is 7,500 mm/km. As with the
Kenyan results the age effects have been modified so that in the main text
vehicle age refers to the survey midpoint. The utilisatlon data reported
In Hide (1982) were used for this purpose, average utilisation being
calculated as In Table A7.2.
Table A7.2: Average Survey Period Utillsation
Vehicle Class Utilisatlon (1,000 km/year)
Cars 16
Trucks 12
A7.3 Brazil
The equations reported In GEIPOT (1981) were re-estimated by

Chesher (1982) after modification of the method for calculating average
survey period road roughness (see Paterson and Chesher 1982). The effect
was to Increase the magnitude of roughness coefficients by from 3 to 21
percent, this Increase reflecting the contraction In the roughness scale
caused by the adoption of the new method for calculating roughness
statistics. The re-estimated equations are reported here. In these
equations costs are expressed in January 1976 Cruzeiros. GEIPOT (1981)
reports In December 1981 Cruzeiros. In the main text the equations are
reported using the variable R to measure roughness In mm/km, obtained from
the equations reported here In QI* units using the conversion equation
1QI - 55 mm/km (see Chapter 2). Equations In exponential form here are
reported In the text after exponentiation, the Intercept term being
adjusted In order to correct for bias In estimating mean parts costs that
arises when exponentlating unbiased estimates of mean In(parts costs).
The correction, obtained by assuming that the regression equations error
terms are approximateiy normally distributed, Involves adding to the

2
reported Intercepts exp(Co /2) where 02 Is an estimate of the variance of
the regression equation error term. Where error components models are
fitted 02 Is taken to be the sum of the estimates of the across (s2) and
within (s2) company variances (see Chapter 3). Throughout "In" Indicates
natural logarithm and:
PC - Parts cost per 1,000 km (January 1976 $Cr per 1,000 km)
01 - Surface roughness (Ql*)
K - Vehicle age at survey midpoint (103 km).
Figures in parentheses below coefficients are ratios of
coefficients to (asymptotic) standard errors.
Cars
ln(PC) - 1.890 + .013701 + .3081n(K)

(4.35) (3.44)
SU - .582 Sw - .452
Ql(Ql*) 40 140 3,650

K(103km) 27 330 114
Source: Chesher (1982)..
Remarks
The equation is estimated by generalized least squares allowing

for random company and vehicle specific errors. The results are similar
to those obtained exploiting only within company variation and the
roughness coefficient alters little on excluding vehicle age. R2
statistics are not available. The equation explains around 20 percent of
the vehicle to vehicle variatlon In parts costs and the coefficients are
quite well determined.
Utilities
In(PC) - 3.318 + .0051701 + .308In(K)

(2.24) (4.14)
SU - .556 Sw - .392
ApproximateRanges and Means of ExplanatoryVariables
QIl(QI*) 24 204 76
K(103 km) 12 980 156
Remarks
In fact, the 65 vehicles used In this estimationcome from 13

companies,7 of which are single vehicle businesses that are grouped in to
a single "company"for the purpose of estimation. Individualvehicle data
is used throughout. The equation Is estimated by generalized least
squares allowing for random company and vehicle specific errors and
differs little from that obtained by exploiting only within company
variation. R2 statisticsare not available. The equation explains around
20 percent of the variatlon in parts costs and the coefficientsare quite
well determined.
Buses
In(PC)- 2.564 - .965 U248 + .00357QI+ .4831n(K)

(-2.05) (3.98) (16.03)
su - .452 Sw - .434
Approximate Ranges and Means of ExplanatoryVariables
QI(QI*) 23 212 87
K(103 km) 20 1,100 284

Remarks
The dummy variable U248 Isolates company no 248 which had a

distinctive maintenance policy so that in estimation only within company
variatlon In this company is exploited. In reporting in the main text
U248 is set equal to zero. The equation is estimated by generalized least
squares allowing for random company and vehicle specific errors. R2
statistics are not available but the equation explains around 50 percent
of the vehicle to vehicle variation In parts costs. The coefficients are
well determined.
Truck
Exponential relationships fitted to these data give unrealistic

predictions on extrapolation and a linear equation is preferred (see
GEIPOT 1981). In GEIPOT (1981) and Chesher (1982) a plecewise linear
equation was fitted, Insensitive to marginal roughness changes for Ql <
40Q1*. To obtain results more easily compared with those obtained in
other studies this has been re-estimated in straightforward linear form as
below:
PC - 137.360 - 90.017TIP + 172.634ST - 118.114AX2 + 4.848QI

(-1.05) (2.04) (-1.11) (4.69)
135
Su - SW - 182
Approximate Ranges and Means of Explanatory Varlables
QI(Qi*)(ST-0) 24 129 58
QI(Ql*)(ST-1) 26 100 56
TIP - 1 If vehicle Is tipper, - 0 otherwlse

ST - 1 If vehicle Is semi-trailer tractor, - 0 otherwise
AX2 - 1 If vehicle Is 2-axled vehicle, - otherwise.
This Is the basis for the equation reported In the text.

However, the equatlon reported above does not contain vehicle age. In
order to report an age effect for comparison with the results of other
studies we use the age effect estimated In the log linear relationship
(Chesher 1982):
In(PC) - 2.989 - .2398TIP + .3634ST - .0785AX2 + .0164QI + .371In(K)

(-1.36) (2.24) (-.37) (7.73) (6.70)
SU - .292 sw - .349
Ql(CQI*) as above
K(103 km) 33 898 204
Source:
In the main text we report the linear equatlon above, multiplied

371
through by (0437 where 204 Is mean age In the data set in 103 km.
A7.4 India
In the Indian study and In this Appendix parts costs are reported
In Palse/km. In the main text we have converted to Rupees per 1,000 km
and report after divislon through by representative vehicle prices in 105
Rupees. As In the Brazilian study we have reported in the main text log-
linear equations after exponentiatlon and after adjustment for bias
Introduced on exponentiation. In the Indian study equations were
estimated by ordinary least squares or by ordinary least squares after
Introducing company specific dummy variables. Where appropriate the
equations have been re-estimated using generalized least squares allowing
for company and vehicle specific random errors. In addition, equations
have been re-estimated In an attempt to discover effects for highway
geometry and In order to obtain estimates that are not Influenced by
certain variables that are either endogenous or difficult to measure in
practical applications.
Throughout figures In parentheses below coefficients are ratios

of coefficients to (asymptotic) standard errors. Both s2 and sW are
unbiased estimates of variances of respectively company and vehicle
specific random errors.
Cars
The Indian study (CRRI 1982) reports two equations, one including
surface roughness, the other width. The equation using surface roughness
Is re-estimated In exponential form by generalized least squares giving:
In(SP) - 1.264 + .000169R

(1.45)
su ' .399 Sw - .429
R(mm/km) 3,416 6,955 4,987
SP - Parts cost (Palse per 100 km)

Remarks
The roughness coefficient Is rather poorly determined and no

effect for vehicle age Is detectable. Average age at survey midpolnt for
these vehicles was 98,600 km.
Buses
Equations reported in the Indian study (CRRI 1982) Include as an

explanatory variable number of major overhauls during the survey period.
This variable depends on surface quality, length of survey period and
utilisation during the survey period, Is endogenous and In practical
applications Is not easily measured. Chesher (1983) re-estimates omitting
this variable and Including measures of highway geometry with the
following results. A single articulated traller bus was deleted from the
data set prior to estimatlon.
ln(SP) - -.309 + .0000526R + .000282C + .00675RF + 1.999/W + .3581n(K)

(2.61) (1.03) (1.38) (2.46) (13.88)
su - .167 Sw - .436
R(mm/km) 2,925 12,072 5,953

C(°/km) 5 1,021 149
RF(m/km) 1 50 15
W(m) 3.7 7.2 5.2
K(10 3 km) 22 988 345

Remarks
The equation is estimated by generalized least squares allowing

for company and vehicle specific random errors. The equation accounts for
about 50 percent of the between vehicle variation In parts costs. The
coefficients on highway geometry are poorly determined but of reasonable
orders of magnitude. Using curvature without rlse + fall gives a
curvature coefficient of .000586 with a standard error of .00016. Using
rise + fall without curvature gives a rise + fall coefficient of .0108
with a standard error of .0029. Other coefficlents are virtually
unchanged on deleting either curvature or rise + fall. Introducing both
curvature and rise + fall, as above, leads to an Increase In standard
errors because of correlation between these two varlables In the data set
(r - .85). However, the resulting coefficlents are smaller In magnitude
than those obtained when only one of the geometry variables is included
and should prove acceptable for use In conditions similar to those
observed In the Indian study. The alternatives would seem to be to delete
geometry from the equatlons entirely or to proceed omitting one of the
geometry measures, confident in the knowledge that the remaining
coefficient Is too large. The approach adopted here, Including both
geometry measures seems preferable.
Trucks
There Is considerable across company and limited wlthin company

variability In highway characteristics. Estimating equations allowing for
company effects does not produce satisfactory results (see CRRI 1982,
Chesher 1983). The equation reported In CRRI (1982) Includes number of
overhauls In the survey period as an explanatory variable which is
unsatisfactory. This equatlon as estimated by CRRI (1982) Is:
ln(SP) - -.8979PA - 1.3325PH + .0402GA - .5587GH + .0001431R

(5.35)
+ 3.483/W + .0531GVW + .23321n(K) + .27620HF

(2.30) (4.22) (5.46) (4.50)
R2 - 0.64
232 vehicles, 30 companles.
SP - Spare parts cost (Palse per 100 km)
PA - 1 If company is private, average maintenance level,

- 0 otherwise.
PH - 1 If company is private, high maintenance level,

- 0 otherwise.
GA - 1 If company is government owned, average malntenance level,

- 0 otherwise.
GH - 1 If company Is government owned, high maintenance level,

- 0 otherwise.
R - Surface roughness (mm/km)
GVW - Gross vehicle weight (tons)
K - Vehicle age at survey midpoint (103 km)
OHF - Number of overhauls In survey period.
Use of OHF as an explanatory variable seriously affects the

vehicle age coefficient. Estimating by generalized least squares deleting
OHF using a variety of specifications gives age coefficients around 0.340
with standard errors of the order of 0.05 and results In only small
changes In the surface roughness coefficient. The equation reported In
the text utillses this age coefficient, deleting OHF and adjusting the
Intercept to eliminate the variables PA, PH, GA, GH, as recommended by
L. R. Kadayall (Indian Road User Survey Director) so that, at sample mean
values of the explanatory variables the equation reported In the main text
gives the same predicted parts cost as the CRRI equation does when used
with Kadayall's recommended Intercept (-0.877). The resulting Intercept
Is -1.340 so that the basis for the equation reported In the text is:
ln(SP) - -1.340 + .000143R + 3.483/W + .0531GVW + .340 In(K).
After exponentlating, correcting for bias thus Introduced and

change of units we obtain the equation reported In the text.
APPENDIX B. MAINTENANCE LABOR EQUATIONS AS REPORTED BY THE FOUR STUDIES
B7.1 Kenya
The equations reported by Hide et al. (1975) are as follows:
Cars
PC/VP 851 - 0.078R
Data: 3 averages relating to 28 vehicles.

Buses
LH 2640 - 0.078R
Data: 3 averages relating to 100 vehicles.

Trucks
LCHVP- 2975 - 0.078R
Data: 1 average relating to 58 vehicles.
Approximate Ranges and Means of Explanatory Variables (All Classes)
R(mm/km) 2,700 4,500 3,052
LH : Maintenance labor hours (hours/km)

PC : Parts Cost (Kenyan shillings per km)
VP : Price of equlvalent new vehicle (Kenyan shillings).
Remarks
Separate relationships were fitted (by ordinary least squares) to

the three bus averages and the three car averages (in a sense two averages
for cars, since only two distinct roughness levels were observed for this
vehicle class). The reported coefficient on roughness of -.078 is the
arithmetic mean of the two coefficients thus obtained. Roughness
variation In this data Is very limited. No standard errors or other
summary statistics are available and In any event their Interpretation
would be difficult given the composite dependent variable and the
averaging carried out on the data prior to analysis.
B7.2 Caribbean
Hide (1983) gives a relationship obtained from a small sample of

garage work:
Labor cost - parts cost x 0.45.
B7.3 Brazil
The Brazilian study reports (GEIPOT 1981) equatlons for labor

cost in Cruzeiros per unit distance travelled. Where roughness effects
are reported the equations were re-estimated (Chesher 1982) to allow for
modifications in the method for calculating average survey roughness (see
Appendix A). The resulting equations are:
Cars ln(LC) - 1.24 + .547 ln(PC)

(4.24)
R2 _ .29, S
W - .500
Utilities In(LC) - 1.23 + .624TF + .551 ln(PC) + .00508QI

(4.03) (4.79) (2.98)
2 .70, sw - .222
Buses ln(LC) - 1.70 + .517 ln(PC) + .00548QI

(8.42) (2.31)
R2 _ .51 Sw - .240
Trucks ln(LC) - 1.91 (2-axle)

2.02 (3-axle)
1.67 (TSpping)
-n(PC) + .519
2.47 (Semi-traplers) (1.84)
R2 _ .50, sw - .264

Variable Class Min Max Mean
PC($Cr/103 km) Cars 25 713 89

Utilities 41 608 191
Buses 34 742 112
Trucks (medium) 53 1,366 235
Trucks (semi trailers) 156 1,556 578
QI(QI*) Cars 37 144 77

Utilities 27 184 88
Buses 27 126 45
Trucks (medium) 24 106 60
Trucks (semi trailers) 26 100 54
TF - 1 If vehicle is fuelled with gasoline

- 0 If vehicle Is fuelled with diesel.
Remarks
These equations are fitted estimating separate Intercepts for

each company. The R2 statistics relate to the proportion of within
company variation In log labor costs that Is attributable to within
company variation In the explanatory variables. sW is an unbiased
estimate of the variance of the vehicle specific (within company) error
term. Reported Intercepts are weighted averages of company Intercepts
with weights equal to number of vehicles per company. Truck Intercepts
are obtained by estimating truck type Intercepts using within company
variation and averaging over companies.
In reporting, labor cost Is converted to labor hours at an

average unit labor cost of 13 Cruzeiros per hour and coefficients are
adjusted so that the explanatory variable Is the ratio of parts costs ($
per 1,000 km) to new vehicle price in 105 Cruzeiros using the
representative vehicle prices given In Table 7.2.
B.4 India
The Indian study reports labor cost relationships giving labor

cost as proportional to maintenance parts costs thus:
Cars: LC - 0.550SP R2 _ .65

Buses: LC - 0.403SP R2 . .51

Trucks: LC - 0.369SP R2 _ .84

LC - Labor cost (Paise per km)

SP - Parts cost (Palse per km).
The labor cost data Is obtained by costing labor hours (the data
collected in the study) at 2.25 Rupees per hour, average labor cost per
hour In 1978 prIces. These equations are presumably estimated by ordinary
least squares. It Is not clear whether R2 statistics have been adjusted
to allow for the constrained zero Intercept. Plots of the data given In
CRRI (1982) Indicate that errors In these equations are heteroscedastic.
Chesher (1983) re-estimated labor cost equatlons following the

methods used In the Brazilian study, relating ln(LC) to ln(SP) and
applying generalized least squares allowing for random company and vehicle
specific random errors with the results given below. In this analysis the
dependent variable Is in(LH) where LH Is labor hours per 1,000 km.
Cars In(LH) - 1.896 + .584 In(SP)

(11.41)
s2_ .048, SW - .024.
Buses: ln(LH) - 1.652 + .473 ln(SP) + .0000426R + .175G

(27.17) (5.72) (1.74)
.044, SW - .049.
Trucks: ln(LH) - 1.378 + .654 In(SP) + .0000250R + .240G + .191TNK

(27.56) (2.52) (3.58) (2.80)
u- .014, 52 _ .027
LH - Labor hours (hours per 1,000 km)

SP - Parts cost (Palse per km)
R - Surface roughness (mm/km)
G - 0 If company privately owned
- 1 If company government owned
TNK - 1 If vehicle Is tanker
- 0 otherwise.
Cars SP 3 33 9.7
R 3,416 6,955 4,987
Buses SP 2 43 13.9
R 2,925 12,072 5,953
Trucks SP 2 74 17.2
R 2,960 15,500 5,331

Remarks
in Chesher (1983) a single trailer bus was deleted from the data
set so that data on 639 vehicles are used In estimating the bus equation
given above. R2 statistics are not available but the equations above fit
at least as well as those given earlier, reported In CRRI (1982). In
reporting In the main text, units of measurement have been changed so that
parts cost (P) Is recorded in Rupees per 1,000 km and using the
representative vehicle prices given In Table A7.2 the equations have been
rewritten so that LH is related to P/VP where VP Is vehicle price in 105
Rupees.
I
I
PART III
Total Vehicle Operating Costs
Here the user cost equations reported In Part 11 are brought

together to produce estimates of vehicle operating costs expressed per
vehicle, per unit distance, for alternativehighway conditionsand vehicle
classes. The estimates are presented In Chapter 9, In which details of
their calculatlon are set out and Issues concerning their use and
transferabilityto new environmentsare discussed.
In calculatingtotal vehicle operating costs It Is necessary to

Include the depreclation and Interest costs associated with vehicle
purchase and replacementexpenditures. The studies provide only a little
direct Information on these costs. In Chapter 8, we examine this
Informationand consider how the studies' results can be used, together
with the economic theory of the transport firm set out In Part 1, In order
to arrive at estimates of the costs associated with vehicle purchase
replacement.
287
I~~~
~~~~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~~~~~~~
CHAPTER 8
The Calculation of Transport Costs
The equations presented In Part 11 allow fuel, lubricant, tire and

maintenance costs to be calculated on a per unit distance basis as
functions of highway conditions and vehicle characteristics. Depending on
the application users have in mind, some adjustment will usually be
required to express these costs on the per unit output basis that is
relevant for cost benefit analysis of highway investments, perhaps by
adjusting for loads carried. In this chapter and In the succeeding
chapter, in which illustrative calculations of costs of provision of
transport services are presented, such adjustments are not made and we work
throughout with costs expressed per vehicle per unit distance.
In Chapter 9 tables showing costs of provision of transport

services are presented for a variety of highway conditions and vehicle
classes. The calculations are based on the results set out in Part 11.
The costs presented in Chapter 9 include crew costs but costs associated
with the provision of managerial services are excluded because the studles
provide little e <2'nce concerning the magnitudes of these costs. For the
same reason costs associated with ownership and maintenance of office and
garage accommodation and of tools and workshop equipment are excluded.
Costs associated with vehicle ownership and replacement are

included. They are important and cannot be neglected if we wish to
estimate transport costs per unit output and gain some idea of the prices
that fIrms' customers will pay for transport services and of the price
changes consequent on changes in highway conditions. Unfortunately, the
four studies provide little direct evidence on these costs. In this
chapter we examine ways of remedying this deficiency and consider how the
information provided by the studies can best be used.
Fleets of vehicles are major Investments for transport firms, and

the funds devoted to fleet purchase and replacement could in principle be
used for alternative purposes - In alternative business enterprises to earn
profits, or lent out to earn interest. The foregone returns on the capital
Invested In transport enterprises - Interest costs - are real costs borne
by transport firms which must be counted when the cost of provision of
transport services Is calculated. Consideration must also be given to the
costs which arise because capital invested in a fleet of vehicles is used
up as transport services are produced. Flrms maintain their vehicles,
reinvesting in their fleet, replacing to some extent the capital that is
dissipated as transport services are produced but, for sound economic
reasons, firms rarely make good all the damage done to their vehicles In
the course of producing transport services. The required maintenance costs
would usually be excessive. in calculating the cost of provision of
289
290 CALCULATION OF TRANSPORT COSTS
transport services, depreciation costs, that is the costs associated with

the decline In value of firms' fleets of vehicles must be counted.
If we had relationships enabling vehicles' values to be predicted

as functions of their age and of the characteristics of the highways over
which they have travelled, then calculation of interest and depreciation
costs and their sensitivity to highway conditions would be straightforward.
But none of the studies report such relationships. All the studies report
vehicle value-vehicle age (in years) relationships, mostly obtained from
nationwide surveys of used vehicle prices, and these are set out in
Appendix A and discussed in the next section.
These relationships do not involve highway characteristics, but

they form the basis for those depreciation and interest cost calculations
that the studies report. These calculations involve specifying a vehicle
age and then using the value-age relationship to predict vehicle value.
Interest costs per time period are computed as a constant fraction of the
predicted vehicle value, and depreciation costs per time period are
obtained by calculating the change in value as the vehicle ages. Finally,
these per time period costs are placed on a per unit distance basis by
dividing through by per time period utilisation obtained with the aid of
the vehicle speed equations presented in Part il. We shall refer to this
method of calculating depreciation and interest costs as the VA (value-age)
method. In applying this method, variations in loads carried due to
changes In highway conditions are not allowed for, though they could be if
Information on the likely magnitude of responses were available. The
calculations reported by the studies and given later do not take into
account possible responses in hours driven to changes In highway conditions
because we have no Information on the magnitude of such responses which
will usually be critically dependent on local conditions.
This approach, based on the studies' vehicles value-vehicle age

relationships, suffers from three defects. First, vehicles' values
predicted by the studies' equations are not related to the quality of the
routes over which vehicles have travelled. Second they are not related to
the number of kilometers that vehicles have travelled, only to their
calendar age. On low quality routes, vehicles will typically have
travelled relatively few kilometers at any calendar age, but each kilometer
travelled will have caused more damage. The effect on vehicles' values
depends, of course, on how much maintenance has been performed and it is
here that the third problem with the use of the studies' vehicle value-age
relationships arises. Using these relationships, one fails to recognize
the link between the running costs that a vehicle incurs and the vehicle's
value. That there is a link Is clear, for, other things being equal,
vehicles which will present their owners with relatively high running costs
will have relatively low values.
This Idea can be made more precise by recalling the economic

theory of the transport fIrm set out in Chapter 2 In Part 1. Recall that
we assumed cost minimising firms, purchasing new vehicles at a price VP,
facing running costs (fuel, tire, oil, maintenance costs, and so forth)
flowing at the rate m(t) per year for a t year old vehicle, and scrapping
vehicles when they are s years old. The condition governing optimal
scrapping requires that vehicle life, s, satisfies:
CALCULATION OF TRANSPORT COSTS 291
S -rt
(1) o m(s) - m(t))e dt - VP.
Further, the flow of running costs at the scrapping date, m(s), is equal to
the sum of the flows of depreciation costs, D(t), Interest costs, I(t), and
running costs, m(t), at any vehicle age, that is:
(2) m(s) - D(t) + i(t) + m(t).
This latter condition implies that depreciation and interest costs

are zero at the date of scrapping, and that total operating costs are
invariant with respect to vehicle age, increases in running costs (m(t))
being offset by decreases In depreciation and interest costs (D(t) + I(t)).
These two results are important for the following reasons. The
second result (2), Implies that, if we know vehicle lives, s, then by
calculating terminal running costs, m(s), we obtain an age invariant
prediction of total vehicle operating costs. In order to use equation (2)
to calculate total operating cots, vehicle lives must be specified. But
how is this to be done? The studies do provide limited information
concerning vehicle lives but no information on how they vary with highway
conditions.
The first result, equation (1), provides a way of predicting

vehicle lives because, given the discount rate, r, new vehicle prices, VP,
and the studies' Information concerning the flow of running costs and its
increase with vehicle age, m(t), equation (1) can be solved for vehicle
life, s. Then terminal running costs can be evaluated and a prediction of
total vehicle operating costs can be obtained. ThIs method of producing
estImates Is referred to later as the OL (optimal life) method.
8.1 RELATIONSHIPS BETWEENVEHICLE VALUE AND VEHICLE AGE
All the studies report equations relating vehicles' vaiues, V(t),

to calendar age, t, and new vehicle price, VP. In the Kenyan study the
vehicle value data obtained were either resale valuations by professional
assessors or actual resale prices. In the Caribbean study vehicle values
are given for some of the vehicles appearing In the user survey. These
data were supplemented by Information obtained from operators outside the
user survey and from vehicle dealers In order to produce the Caribbean
study's vehicle value-age relationship. In both the Indian and Brazilian
studies, surveys of vehicles traded on the second-hand market provided data
with which to estimate vehicle value-age relationships. The Brazilian
commercial car equation was obtained using data from user survey companies
on prices obtained for their vehicles in second-hand markets. The studies'
vehicle value age equations reflect local conditlons at the time that data
were collected. In applications thelr relevance should be considered
carefully.
Only In the case of the Indian study do the reported equations

predict vehicle value equal to new vehicle price at vehicle age equal to
zero. In the rest of the studies the smooth curves or lines that apply
over the majority of the age range do not capture the Initial one or two
years decline In vehicles' values. The Kenyan and Caribbean studies'
equations for cars and light goods vehicles apply for vehicles two or more
years old, separate figures being given for the value of one year old
vehicles. The remaining Kenyan and Caribbean study equations and the
Brazilian study equations apply for vehicles one or more years old. In
most cases the relationships indicate a sharper fall in vehicle value over
the first one or two years of life than data on older vehicles would lead
one to expect. This is possibly due in part to effects associated with the
expiration of, or non-transferability of, manufacturers guarantees, and,
maybe, to some kind of "market for lemons" effect (see Akerloff 1970).
Purchasers can only judge new vehicles of a given specification as
Identical. But, since young used vehicles may not be offered for sale
unless their owners foresee high future maintenance costs, purchasers may
take the offer for sale of a young vehicle as an Indication of.below
average quality, thus depressing second-hand market prices for young
vehicles. The Indian study equations do not predict faster rates of
depreciation for younger vehicles but It appears that the data have been
adjusted to remove any differential effects.
In the Brazilian study, except for commercial cars, and in the

Indian study vehicle value is an exponential function of calendar age,
Implying that per time period depreciation is a constant fraction of
current vehicle value for vehicles of all ages. The Brazilian commercial
car equation and the car and light goods vehicle equations for the Kenyan
and Caribbean studies give vehicle value divided by new vehicle price as
linear In vehicle age, Implying that per time period depreciation costs are
a constant fraction of new vehicle price. The Brazilian commercial car
equation shows a fast decline in vehicle value as vehicles' age which
reflects the experience of the user survey companies that provided the data
used to estimate the equatlon. These companies used cars In high
utillsation operations, described In Section 8.2. The Caribbean and Kenyan
studies' equations for buses and trucks express vehicle value divided by
new vehicle price as a power function of vehicle age. In these studies
except where llnear age functions are used, the equations give vehicle
value as a strictly convex function of vehicle age Implying that
depreciation costs per time period fall as vehicles age. The vehicle
value-age equations reported in Table 8.1 are graphed In Figures 8.1 to
8.5.
Table 8.2 shows the per annum rate of flow of depreciation costs
on the tth anniversary of the vehicle's first registration as D(t), equal
to minus the derivative wlth respect to calendar age of vehicle value V(t).
In all cases depreciation costs per annum are either constant or fall as
vehicles age. Depreciation costs per time period are predicted to be a
larger fraction of current vehicle value by the Brazilian study equations
than by the Indian study equations and the Indian study results Indicate
that the vehicles depreciate more slowly there than in Brazil. There Is
very llttle Information available on vehicle lives but what Information
there Is suggests that cars and jeeps at least are more long lived In India
than In Brazil. CRRI (1982) reports 3.9 percent of Indian cars and jeeps
Table 8.1: VehIcle Value V(t) as a Function of Vehicle Age (t) and
New Vehicle Price (VP)
Country Vehicle Cass Equation Restrictions
INDIA Cats V(t) = exp(-.081t)VP
Buses and Trucks V(t) = exp(-. 147t)VP
BRAZIL Cwrs (commercial) Vt) = (.859- .143t)VP 1 C t1 5

V(t) = .14VP t >VS
Cas (private) V(t) = 1.07 exp(-.173t)VP 1 C t 4 12

V(t) = .13VP t > 12
Light Goods Vehicles V(t) = .75 exp(-.124t)VP 1C t ( 15

V(t) = .11VP t ) 15
Buses V(t) = .95 exp(-. 169t)VP 1 S t ( 12

V(t) = .12VP t . 12
Medium Trucks V(t) = .83 exp(-.175t)VP 1 < t C 12

V(t) = .1OVP t ) 12
Heavy Trucks Vtt) = .84 exp(-.160t)VP 1 At C 12

V(t) = .12VP t z t2
CARIBBEAN Cws and Light V(t) = .78VP t = 1

GoodsVehices V(t) = (.795 - .078t)VP 2 C t( 9
3
Trucks V(t) = (1.553- 6GM1tl1
)VP 1 C t 4 12
KENYA Cars and Light V(t) = .7sVP t_ 1

Goods Vehices V(t) = t.793 - .077)VP 2 C t( 9
Busesand Medium V(t) = (1.317 - .625t 1 13 )VP 14 t 4 8

and HeavyTrucks
Figure 8.1: Vehicle Value at Ago t Years (V(t)) Divided by Now Vehicle
Price (VP) versus Vehicle Age: India
V(t)
VP
1.0
0.8
I :,,
ST. _d m Tn,ds
0.6
0.4
0.2
B0
t
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20vhicle age (years)
Figure8.2: VehicleVaiue at Age t YearsV(t)) Dividedby

New VehiciePrice (VP)versusVehicleAge
Brazil: Cars and LightGoodsVehicies
V (t
VP
0. 1
" PrhUs cas

=~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~o
0.6 0.6 c....orwo.

CW
co~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
0.4
2 4 6 8 l0 12 14 16 18 20 vehicle age (years)

Figure 8.3: Vehicle Value at Age t Years (V(t)) Divided by

New Vehicle Price (VP) versus Vehicle Age
Brazil: Buses and Trucks

V (t)
VP
1.0 t
HT MsbT =
0.6 T IT '.y NT = T-o
0.4
0.2
0.44 14 16 18 20 vehicle ag (year)
Figure8.4: VehicleValueat Age t Years (Vt) Dividedby

New VehiclePrice (VP)versusVehicleAge
Caribbean
0(t)
VP
0.8,
0.6~ ' LG C-r WoUght Good. V.hW1.
0.4
0.22
CLG
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 vehicle age (years)

296 CALCULATIONOF TRANSPORT COSTS
Table 8.2: Per Annum Rate of Flow of DepreciationCosts on

tth Anniversaryof Vehicle Registration
0ounv VMio Cloaw Equatn R onso
INDIA Cer D(t) = .081 V(t)
Buss ad Trucks D(t) = .147 V(t)
BRAZIL Cam (oomm.rclI) D(t) = .143>P 1 V(t) 14 t C5

6.0 - t
Crs (Prlpvt) D(t) =.1I3V(t) 1 C t C 12
Light GoodsVehk*l D(t) - .124V(t) 14 t C 15
Eub D(t) = .16SV(t) 1 4 t 4 12
Medium rudo D(t) = .175V(t) 1 t C 12
HeswrrwTud D(t) =.1IV(t) 1 4 t C 12
CAIDIEA Cos and Light D(t) = .078VP= I 1V(t) 2 CtC 9

GoodsVehic. 10.2-t
Trucs D(t) = .221t 1VP V(t) 1 Ct C 12

t(7.0t -13)
KENYA Cars and Light D(t) = .0" = 1 V(t) 2 Ct 4 9

GoodsVehIces 10.3-t
V
Bus"nd rcns D(t) = .2a8t 2/3VP = -1 3 t) 1 t 4
t (G.33t -1/13)
Figure 8.5: Vehicle Value at Age t Years (V(t)) Divided by

New Vehicle Price (VP) versus Vehicle Age
V(t
VP
Kenya
La 1
0.8
0.61
^ O I~~~~~~~~~d
0.4
0.2
2 4 6 8 10 vehicle age (years)
as over 25 years old and 3.3 percent of Indlan buses and trucks over 12
years old. While the latter figure is not out of line with Brazilian
experience the former Is. Graphs presented in the Kenyan study report
(Hide et al. 1975) suggest vehicle lives of around twelve years In Kenya at
the time of the study.
The per annum rate of flow of Interest costs on the tth

anniversary of first registration Is given by l(t) - rVMt) where r is a per
annum discount rate. In Illustrative calcuiations reported In the
Brazilian study (GEIPOT 1981) an annual discount rate of 0.12 Is used which
results in ratios of per annum depreciation costs to per annum interest
costs varying from 1.03 to 1.46 as shown in Table 8.3. In Illustrative
calculations reported In the Indian study (CRRI 1982) an annual discount
rate of 0.15 Is used giving ratios of per annum depreciation costs to per
annum Interest costs of 0.98 for buses and trucks and 0.54 for cars.
To convert per annum depreciation and Interest costs to the per

unit output basis required for assessing the benefits to highway
Improvements, It Is necessary to divide the predicted per annum costs by
output per vehicle per year. Prediction of output per vehicle per time
period Is therefore of great importance and It Is to this topic that we
turn In the next section.
Table 8.3: Ratios of Per Annum Rates of Flow of Depreclation Costs (D(t))
to Interest Costs (I(t)): Brazil
Vehicle Class D(t)/i(t)
Private Cars 1.44

Light Goods Vehicle 1.03
Buses 1.41
Medium Trucks 1.46
Heavy Trucks 1.33
Note: Annual discount rate = 0.12.
8.2 VEHICLE UTILISATION
There are two distinct aspects to vehicle utilisation as defined

here. On the one hand we have to consider kilometers travelled, or trips
made, per vehicle per time period and on the other we must consider loads
carried or passengers carried per vehicle per trip or per kilometer. in
the studies performed in India, Brazil, the Caribbean, and Kenya
considerable emphasis has been placed on kilometers travelled - Indeed in
the Indian and Brazilian studies "utlilsation" Is taken to mean kilometers
travelled per time period and the Issue of loads carried receives little
attention. The four country studies provide little information on loads
carried and no information on the responsiveness of loads carried to
changes in highway conditions.
With vehicle specification fixed firms can adjust loads carried to

only a limited extent but, where it Is economic to do so they may choose to
overload vehicles and perhaps, faced with steep, sinuous routes, firms may
deliberately carry loads less than the maximum recommended by
manufacturers. A dimension to the "load carried" choice not considered at
all In the four country studies Is choice of vehicle capacity. When a
highway is improved we may find larger capacity vehicles being operated.
In part the more extensive use of large capacity vehicles on good quality
routes may be a result of market conditions. High quality routes tend to
be high volume routes on which firms can be assured of operating large
vehicles to capacity. But It Is likely that highway conditions affect the
vehicle capacity choice directly.
In the Brazilian study semi-trailer combinations were rarely found

operating on unpaved routes or on routes built to low geometric standards.
The available evidence indicates that for such vehicles operating costs
rise sharply once highway conditions drop below a fairly high standard. In
one notable Instance In the Brazilian study a company was found operating
semi-trailers on unpaved routes, in a eucalyptus logging operation, but
this was on a road network constructed and maintained by the company who
ensured that road conditions were good. In assessing highway Improvement
projects the possibility that larger capacity vehicles will be operated
once a route is Improved must be considered. These vehicles cost more to
purchase and generally Incur higher depreciation, interest, and maintenance
costs per time period. But on good quality routes and where the vehicles
can be operated near to capacity, costs per unit output are likely to be
lower than for lower capacity vehicles.
So far we have considered vehicle loads and capacities but as

important in determining output per vehicle per year is the prediction of
annual kilometerage. Both the Indian and the Brazilian studies provide
equations relating annual kilometerage per vehicle to highway
characteristics obtained using user survey data. Neither the Kenyan nor
the Caribbean studies provide information on annual kilometerage derived
from user surveys. Unfortunately annual kilometerage equations obtained
from user survey data are not at all easy to interpret because kliometers
travelled per year per vehicle varies greatly from company to company and
Is heavily dependent on the type of business in which the company is
Involved. Route length plays an important role too. Obviously vehicles
employed on short haul deliveries will spend considerable time loading and
unloading compared with vehicles Involved in long distance haulage on
Inter-urban routes.
Inevitably, highway planners will have to pay close attention to

local conditions when predicting utilisation. The annual kilometerage
equations reported In the Brazilian study (GEIPOT 1981) and In the Indian
study (CRRI 1982) reflect the particular practices and types of business of
the relatively small number of companies that appear in the surveys. They
are unlikely to be useful outside the environments in which they were
obtained and they are not reported here. However, to give some Idea of the
annual kilometerage achleved by survey vehicles and the variation across
countries and vehicle classes, we present in Table 8.4 average annual
kilometerages by vehicle class as recorded In the four studies.
The high annual kilometerage of the commercial cars in the

Brazilian user survey is not representative of general commercial car
operations in Brazil. All of the cars in the Brazilian survey were
Involved In bank courier work In which speed of delivery was highly valued
by customers and by the nature of the bank courier business, courier cars
have high utilisatlon - they depreciate fast, as would be expected. The
low annual kilometerage of the Caribbean vehicles Is distinctive, but
typical of commercial operations on the small islands where there are
considerable seasonal fluctuations in the amount of freight transported.
In practice output per vehicle per year does have to be predicted

and the effect on utilisatlon of highway characteristics Is of considerable
Interest. Some progress towards predicting utilisation can be made by
explolting the vehicle speed equations given in Chapter 4 In Part 1i,
though care should be taken to ensure that speed equations are calibrated
for the environment In which they are to be used. Annual kilometerage Is

the product of average vehicle speed In kilometersper hour (V) and hours
driven per year (H). The equations In Chapter 4 predict vehicle speed as a
functionof highway characteristicsand, given hours of operation per year-,
annual kiiometeragefollows. In predicting hours of operation per year
local conditionsare highly relevant because customs and local working
practices vary from country to country. As before, type of business is an
Importantconsiderationas well. The Brazilian and Indian studies present
average annual hours driven by vehicle class and we give these figures In
Table 8.5. These figures reflect the type of business and working
practices of the companies surveyed In the two studies. They may not be
good indicatorsof general Brazilian or Indian experience and they are
unlikely to apply In different environments.
Table 8.4: Average Annual Kilometerageof Survey Vehicles

(Kilometersper Year)
User Survey
Vehicle Class India Brazil The Caribbean Kenya
Private cars - 20,000
Commercial Cars 37,000 93,000 f16 ,0 0 0 24,000
Light Goods - 89,000 1 94,000

Buses 93,000 94,000 - 113,000
Medium and Heavy

Trucks 55,000 101,000 13,000 48,000
Table 8.5: Average Annual Hours Driven

(Hours per Year)
Vehicle Class Brazil India
Cars 1,560 800

Light Goods Vehicles 1,800 -
Buses 2,400 1,380
Medium Trucks 2,040

1,300
Heavy Trucks 1,800.
Given predictions of annual hours driven (H), vehicle speed (V)

and load carried per vehicle (L) utilisatlon can be obtained as:
U - V.H.L.
and for any predicted output of transport services, Q, the number of

vehicles operated by companies can be predicted as N - Q/U. However, It
must be borne in mind that annual hours of operation as well as loads
carrled can vary with highway conditions so that not all the response comes
through vehicle speed changes. Variation in loads carried was discussed
earlier in this section.
Thomas (1983) provides a useful discussion of the effects of

highway Improvements on the utilisation of commercial vehicles. He finds,
in the context of a particular project in West Malaysia, that utilisatlon
Is, for certain of the vehicles surveyed, rather Insensitive to changes in
highway conditions that permit higher speeds, because of restrictions on
numbers of Journeys per day and on working hours. In most highway
Improvement proJects one can find examples of firms for which time savings
resulting from highway improvement are not easily utillsed - perhaps
because time savings are insufficient to allow vehicles to make, say, two
trips per day when before they made just one. It Is clearly Important to
consider local conditions before proceeding to assume that all time savings
due to Increased speed of travel can be used to Increase utillsatlon.
However, In many large scale Improvements we find firms In the situation
described above approximately "balanced" by firms for whom small time
savings allow major Increases In utilisation because just a small Increase
In speed allows, say, two trips per day where two trips per day were only
barely Infeasible prior to the Improvement.
The four studies provide no Information concerning the way in

which hours of operation vary with highway conditions so, In calculating
depreciation, Interest, and crew costs, we proceed here and In Chapter 9 by
specifying hours driven per year as constant across highway types and
develop utilisation as the product of hours driven and speed as predicted
using the equations of Chapter 4.
8.3 DEPRECIATION, INTEREST, AND MAINTENANCE COSTS
In this section, the two methods of calculating depreciation and

Interest costs, described In the beginning of this chapter are examined In
some detail. The VA method (value-age) Involves specification of vehicle
life in years and calculation of per annum depreciation and Interest costs,
using the studies' vehicle value-age relationships. Assuming a value for
hours driven per year, annual utilisation Is derived using the studies'
vehicle speed equations, and the predictions of per annum depreciation and
Interest costs are divided by utilisatlon so that they are expressed per
unit distance. The depreciation and, where available, Interest cost
calculations reported by the studies were obtained using methods similar to
this.
Though the studies predict large effects on maintenance costs only

for road roughness, the summed maintenance depreclation and Interest costs
given In Table 8.6 are sensitive to variations In highway geometry. This
Is because the costs given In Table 8.6 are expressed per unit distance and
are calculated assuming hours driven are Insensitive to highway conditions.
Thus they reflect the sensitivity of vehicle speed to geometry.
Table 8.6 shows predictions of the sum of maintenance depreclation

and Interest costs for Brazilian and Indlan buses and Caribbean cars,
obtained using the VA method, exploiting the studies' vehicle value-vehicle
age (in years) relationships. Maintenance costs have been added to permit
direct comparlson with predictions obtained using the OL method, reported
shortly. The prices used to derive the predictions given here and later In
this Chapter are reported in Table 8.7. They are discussed In Chapter 9,
where more detailed cost tables are given. For the moment, we note that
all prices are in local currency at or close to the studies' dates. The
Caribbean study's equations cannot be extrapolated to roughness as low as
2,000 mm/km, so, for the Caribbean car, maintenance costs are predicted at
4,000, 6,000, and 10,000 mm/km.
Predictions are given for vehicles aged 2, 5, and 10 years. Hours

driven have been specified at 2,500 hours per year for Brazilian and Indian
buses and at 350 hours per year for Caribbean cars. The reason for using a
much lower value for the Caribbean vehicle will be explained shortly.
These values, together with the studies' speed equations, Imply the total
number of kilometers run at ages 2, 5, and 10 years given In the columns
headed "K" In Table 8.6. Vehicles operating over lower quality routes are
predicted to attain lower total kilometer age at any calendar age because
speeds are reduced as we move to lower quality highways. Increases in
hours driven could offset this but any need for Increased time off the road
for maintenance activities would work in the opposite direction.
As examination of Table 8.6 reveals, application of the VA method

can result In some curious effects. For the Brazilian and Caribbean
vehicles, the sum of maintenance, depreciation, and interest costs (and
thus of total operating costs, since no other cost components are predicted
to be affected by vehicle age) are predicted generally to Increase with
vehicle calendar age. For Indian vehicles they are predicted to decrease
with vehicle calendar age.
In the context of the model used In Part I and given our

definition of vehicle value, this suggests some mis-matching of the
studies' maintenance cost equations and their vehicle value-calendar age
equations. The effect may be due to the exclusion from the latter of
kilometer age and to highway condition effects.
So far as maintenance costs are concerned there are two effects

operating in Table 8.6 pulling In opposite directions. Lower quality
routes are associated with lower speeds, thus with lower utillsation and
lower kilometer ages at any calendar age, and this brings maintenance costs
down. But lower quality routes are associated with higher maintenance
costs via roughness and geometry effects. It Is possible for either effect
to dominate.
Table 8.6: Sum of Malntenance (Parts and Labor) - Depreciation and Interest Cost (P + L + D + I) and
Kilometer Age (K, 1000 km) by Vehicle Age Obtained Using Studies' Vehicle Value - Calendar
Age Equations (VA Method)
BRAZILIAN BUSES INDIAN BUSES CARIBBEAN CARS

Rise Roughness_ _
Curvature plus BI: mm/km Age: 2 years Age 5 years Age: 10 years Age: 2 years Age: 5 years Age: 10 years Age ; 2 years Age; 5 years Age: 10 years
0/km Fall (IRI m/kms
m/km P+L+D+I K P+L+D+I K P+L+D+I K P+L+D+1 K P+L+D+I K P+L+D+} K P+L+D+I K P+L+D+I X P+L+D+l K
2000(1) 783 361 852 901 955 1802 433 257 396 643 354 1285 227 44 300 110 421 219
{2.81
10 6000. 1010 274 1078 684 1187 1368 506 151 471 533 420 1065 311 42 476 104 751 208
(7.41
10000 1308 218 1393 545 1528 1090 623 169 575 423 504 845 463 39 802 98 1367 195
(12.0)
100 .
2000 1) 870 253 849 633 870 1265 525 204 488 510 434 1020 231 42 298 105 410 209
{2.81
50 6000 1079 218 1076 544 1121 1088 653 160 600 399 523 798 312 39 467 99 724 197
0 (7.4)
W 10000 1358 189 1389 471 1474 943 862 116 773 289 653 578 459 37 778 93 1308 185
(12.01
2000(1) 846 273 846 682 886 1365 452 242 424 604 382 1208 243 37 296 93 384 186
(2.81
10 6000 1140 188 1088 470 1087 940 546 198 509 494 454 988 320 35 448 87 663 174
(7.4)
10000 1392 174 1392 435 1447 870 682 154 627 384 549 768 455 32 724 81 1173 162
500 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ .__ ___

2000(1) 925 219 863 546 845 1093 568 189 529 471 470 943 250 35 297 88 374 176
(2.81
50 6000 1189 171 1103 426 1069 853 719 144 658 360 571 720 325 33 442 82 637 164
(7.4)
10000 1432 161 1398 401 1423 803 980 100 871 250 726 500 456 30 703 78 1116 152
{12.0o)
NOTES:
(1) Roughness set to 4000 =cc/km in place of 2000 mm/km to evaluate parts costs for Caribbean cars.
(2) Hours driven: 2500 hours/year, Brazil, India, 350 hours per year, Caribbean. 3 3
(3) P+L+D+I is the sum of parts, labor, depreciation and interest costs in : Brazil, 1976 Cruzeiros/10 kms, India, 1978 Rupees/1 km; Caribbean 1978
3
Eastern Caribbean dollars/10 km. For details of prices see Table 8.8 and chapter 9.
(4) Interest rate: 12% per year.
Table 8.7: Vehicle Prices (1) and Mechanics Wage Rates(2)
Item Amount India Brazil Caribbean(3)

1978 Rupees 1976 Cruzeiros 1978 EC
Car 1 vehicle 64800 43000 21000

Bus . 234000 I 316970 _
Medium truck . 180700 138621 48000
Articulatedtruck
andtrailer . 437704
Labour services
Mechanic 1 hour 2.25 13 _
(1) Prices inclusiveof taxes
(2) For further details see Table 9.1. Chapter 9.
(3) Caribbean study labor costs obtained by prorating parts costs.
The studies' vehicle value-calendar age equations which determine

per annum depreciation and interest costs underlying Table 8.6 do not allow
for the Influence of vehicles' kilometer age nor for the Influence of
highway conditions. It is likely that, applied to two vehicles travelling
similar routes, they understate the rate of depreciation of the higher
utilised vehicle and that, applied to two vehicles with similar
utilisation, they understate the rate of depreciation of the vehicle on a
lower quality route. So far as Table 8.6 Is concerned, these effects pull
against each other because the vehicles operating on lower quality routes
are predicted to have lower utilisation. It Is difficult to determine
under what circumstances the studies' vehicle value-calendar age equations
lead to under and over prediction of depreciation and Interest costs,
particularly when It Is realized that vehicle owners' maintenance policy is
highly relevant since increased maintenance expenditures on vehicles
travelling on low quality routes may substantially offset the decline In
value that would arise were damage done to vehicles to be left unattended.
We suggest that the VA method should be used with caution and

advise those who wish to employ this sort of procedure to calculate
depreciation and Interest costs to take care to check that the vehicle
value relationships are consistent with the running costs equations that
they use. In applying the VA method In Chapter 9 we specify both calendar
and kilometer ages, avoiding some of the problems evident above, but it
should be noted that different choices of calendar and kilometer.ages would
result In slightly different cost predictions.
In the absence of reliable information concerning vehicles' values

and their relationship to calendar and kilometer age and to highway
conditions, depreciation and Interest costs can be calculated using the OL
method. This exploits the Information contained In the equations relating
running costs to vehicle age and so is consistent with them. Further, it
produces total vehicle operating cost predictions that are consistent with
the model used In Part I and with our definition of vehicle value,
predictions that are invariant with respect to changes In vehicle age.
The OL method (optimal life) Involves specification of hours

driven per year and derivation of a vehicle age Invariant annual
utillsatlon, as In the VA method. The vehicle scrapping condition,
equation (1) In this chapter is then used to derive running costs per unit
distance at the termination of vehicles' lives. Equation (2) tells us that
these terminal running costs, Incurred when vehicles have negligible value,
and are hence Incurring negligible depreciation and Interest costs, are
equal to the total operating costs (i.e., running and depreciation and
Interest costs) of vehicles of all ages. Details of this calculation are
set out In Appendix B. In fact, only maintenance costs are found to be
substantially affected by vehicle age so that other costs are not relevant
In determining vehicle lives. Thus, In using the OL method here, only
maintenance costs are considered and the procedure yields a vehicle age
Invariant prediction of the sum of maintenance, depreciation and Interest
costs to which fuel, lubricant, and other costs must be added to arrive at
total vehicle operating costs.
Strong simplifying assumptions are used to obtain depreciation and

Interest costs In this way, but without them little progress can be made.
In all applied economic analysis simplification Is necessary If sallent
magnitudes are to be predicted. Of course, the results one obtains from
simple models must be appraised carefully.
Table 8.8 shows for Indian and Brazilian buses and for Caribbean
cars the vehicle age Invariant sums of maintenance, depreciation, and
Interest costs obtained using the OL method, solving for vehicle lives as
described In Appendix B, and evaluating terminal maintenance costs. As
above, we have assumed 2,500 hours driven per year for the Indlan and
Brazilian buses and 350 hours per year for the Caribbean cars, and used the
studies' speed equations to derive vehicle age Invariant utilisation. The
costs we obtain fall uniformly between those recorded for the oldest and
youngest vehicles In Table 8.6, derived using the VA method, and the
magnitudes are reasonable. At first sight, the OL method seems to provide
the answer to the problem of calculating depreciation and Interest costs
when reliable Information on vehicles' values Is not available, and Its
consistency with the running cost equations and with the definition of
vehicle value is attractive. However, there Is a problem that requires
discussion - the vehicle lives that the studies' maintenance equations
Imply are, In the case of the Indian and Brazilian studies, generally too
long, and In the case of the Kenyan study, except for buses, too short. We
argue below that, so far as the Indian and Brazilian studies' equations are
concerned, the consequences for predicting total vehicle operating costs
are unlikely to be severe.
Table 8.8: Sum of Maintenance (Parts and Labor), Depreciation and

Interest Costs (P + L + D + I) Obtained Using Studies'
Maintenance Cost Equations to Evaluate Terminal Maintenance
Costs (OL Method)
Curvature Rlse plus Roughness Brazilian Buses Indian Buses Caribbean Cars1 -
0
/km Fall Bl: mm/km P+L+D+l P+L+D+I P+L+D+I
m/km!
20001 846 406 1 309

10 6000 1061 486 432
10000 1396 592 612
100 __
20001 885 497 312
50 6000 1112 609 434
10000 1419 777 615
20001 875 436 319

10 6000 1138 524 442
10000 1434 643 623
500__________.
20001 908 537 323
50 6000 1158 665 446
10000 1451 868 627
1. For notes, see Table 8.6
The short predicted vehicle lives obtained using the Kenyan

study's maintenance cost equations arise because costs are predicted to
Increase steeply and linearly with vehicle age. Each doubling of vehicle
age doubles predicted maintenance costs which soon rise to such high levels
that fIrms that did not scrap vehicles would be paying in maintenance costs
every few thousand kilometers amounts sufficient to purchase new vehicles
which would Incur low running costs. For Kenyan buses, the problem Is less
severe because for these vehicles maintenance costs are predicted to
Increase with the square root of vehicle age.
The Caribbean study also predicts linear age effects and we might
expect the same difficulty to arise here. Indeed, it does If we try to
predict vehicle lives assuming the Intensity of utilisation found In the
other studies. However, the Caribbean study obtained data from vehicles
achieving very low utilisation and, as noted In Chapter 7, the strong age
effects found by the Caribbean study are likely to be due to confusion of
the effects of calendar and kilometer ageing. If the OL method Is applied
to the Caribbean study's maintenance equations assuming the sort of
utilisation actually achieved by Caribbean vehicles, then predicted vehicle
lives are not understated; Indeed, they are, If anything overstated, as
happens when the OL method Is applied to the Indian and Brazilian studies'
equations. Here, and later In Chapter 9, predictions derived using the
Caribbean study's equations are confined to low utillsation operations.
Overstatement of vehicles' lives when the OL method Is applied to

the Brazilian, Indian, and Caribbean studies' maintenance equations (the
latter assuming low utilisation) almost certainly arises because the
studies' equations tend to understate maintenance costs and generally the
progression of running costs with age. Further, the analysis of Part 1,
set in a stationary environment, does not allow for technical change and
consequent vehicle obsolescence and advanced scrapping.
Figure 8.6 shows the effect of understanding running costs and

their progression as vehicles age. The curves m'(t) and m(t) show
respectively true and estimated rates of flow or running costs as functions
of vehicle age, t. The discounted values of the areas ABC and A'B'C are
both equal to new vehicle price, by virtue of equation (1) and consequently
estimated vehicle lives, s, are longer than actual lives, s'. If running
cost streams are relatively flat for older vehicles, then the
understatement of total vehicle operating costs (AA') may not be large,
particularly with non-negligible discount rates. We return to this later.
There are a number of reasons for believing that the studies'

maintenance cost equations understate maintenance costs and their rate of
increase as vehicles age. When recording maintenance costs, errors
Involving omission of cost Items are more likely than errors Involving
spurious attribution of costs to vehicles, and in all the studies major
accident repair costs were excluded from maintenance costs. Further,
maintenance expenditures in practice arise at discrete points In time and,
for older vehicles can be large in magnitude when they do arise. Vehicles
near to the ends of their lives are likely to be scrapped early when their
owners face large maintenance costs so that the large costs which would
bring about scrapping are not observed. This will lead us to understate
the costs associated with running vehicles which are near to thelr
scrapping dates.
Additionally, there Is a problem of adverse selection. Suppose

there are vehicle specific differences in costs In addition to those
attributable to highway conditions, vehicle age and so forth. Then, by
virtue of equation (1), relatively high cost vehicles will be scrapped
relatively early. Under these circumstances, the oldest vehicles observed
in user surveys are representative not of average vehicles of their
"cohort," but of the lowest cost vehicles of their "cohort" and the fitted
relationships between costs and vehicle age will tend to follow a path
somewhat below that followed by costs for average vehicles, and to a
greater extent, for older vehicles.
There are other reasons to expect solved values for vehicle lives
obtained using the OL method to be longer than vehicle lives observed in
practice. For example, It Is likely that many cost components show some
increase with vehicle age. Engine efficiency declines and suspension and
steering systems deteriorate so that, as vehicles age, fuel, lubricant, and
tire costs rise. Wlth a few exceptions such effects have not been detected
in the cost component by cost component analysis of the studies' data
probably because for any single component, except maintenance, the effects
are small and difficult to estimate accurately using quite scattered data.
In sum though, the effects may be non-negligible, In which case the
Figure 8.6: Effect on Predicted Lives and Costs of Understating

Running Costs
$/year
A' E=m (t)
t (years)
SI S
Increase in costs with age Is understated If only the Increase in

maintenance costs Is considered.
In practice, vehicles are scrapped not just because their running

costs become large relative to those Incurred by new vehicles of similar
design but also because their running costs become large relative to new
vehicles of new design. The long lives that arise using the OL method are
not always achieved In practice, In part because vehicle design and
technology change, rendering older vehicles obsolescent. This is an
Influence not allowed for In our analysis In Part I which forms the basis
of the 01 method since that analysis assumes a stationary environment.
Though the vehicle lives predicted when the OL method Is applied

to the studies' cost equations are overlong (with the exceptlon of the
Kenyan study) the consequences of this for the prediction of maintenance,
depreciation, and interest costs may not be too severe. For example, If
the problem arises because of under-prediction of maintenance costs mainly
for older vehicles, then, unless the discount rate Is small, the effect on
total cost predictions may be negligible. Figure 8.7 Illustrates this
situation. Here, m(t) and m'(t) are respectively estimated and true rates
of flow of running costs Implying estimated and true ages at scrapping of
Figure 8.7: Effects on Predicted Costs of Understating Running Costs

for Older Vehicles
$/year
Al
A m(t)
DI
C~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
t (years)
respectively s and s' years. The optimal scrapping condition requires that
the discounted values of the areas CA'B and CAB are both equal to new
vehicle price and thus that the discounted values of the areas AA'BE' and
DEB are equal. When the discount rate Is at all far from zero, then AA',
the extent to which total vehicle operating costs are understated need not
be large In order to achieve the equality of the discounted values of
AA'B'E and DEB since the latter is discounted more than the former.
Clearly the OL method should be used with care, and its

predictions of operating costs should be examined to ensure that they are
reasonable. As with the VA method, one will need, In practice, to ensure
that utilisations used to derive costs are appropriate for the application
in mind. The OL method has a number of advantages - It does not require
Information, usually hard to obtain, concerning vehicles' values and their
relationship to kilometer and calendar age, and highway conditions and
using it one guards against the possibility of predicting unreasonably high
costs In situations in which running costs are predicted to increase
rapidly with vehicle age. It exploits the informatlon contained in new
vehicle prices and In estimates of running costs and their progression with
age and though, in practice, these may be somewhat understated the
consequent downward bias in predictions of operating costs may be small,
particularly if it Is malnly for older vehicles that running costs are
under-estimated.
In the following chapter we report cost predictions obtained using

both the VA method and the OL method. The overall predictions concerning
the effects of highway conditions on vehicle operating costs are not wildly
different. Our Inclination is to regard those derived using the OL method
as more accurate.
APPENDIX A. RELATIONSHIPSBETWEEN VEHICLE VALUES AND VEHICLE AGE
In this appendix the relationships between vehicle value and

vehicle age In years reported by the user surveys carried out In India,
Brazil, the Caribbean,and Kenya are reported In the form in which they
were originally presented In the studies' reports. In all cases the
vehicle value data are either prices obtained for vehicles on second-hand
markets or estimatesof such prices as would be obtained were vehicles
offered for sale on second-handmarkets. Throughoutvehicle age should be
taken to be age In years since first registration.
A8.1 Kenya
Notation
DP - new vehicle price minus vehicle value at given age

new vehicle price
Y - vehicle age in years.
DP - 0.207 + .077Y 2 < Y < 10
R2 _ .90, relationship apparently obtained from 15 data

points.
DP - 0.22 Y- 1
Medium and heavy goods vehicles and buses
DP - -0.317 + 0.625Y1 /3
R2 - .96, relationship apparently obtained from 15 data

points.
This equation predicts DP - .308 at Y - 0 so presumably Is to be

used for Y > 1.
A8.2 Caribbean
Notation: as In A8.1
DP - 0.205 + .078Y 2 < Y
R2 - 0.80, relationship apparently obtained from 34 data

points.
DP - 0.220 Y - 1
Trucks
1
DP - -0.5532 + 0.6615Y /3
R2 - 0.82, relationship apparently obtained from 22 data

points.
A8.3 Brazil
Notation
VA - value of vehicle aged A years on second-hand market

expressed as a proportion of new vehicle price.
Commercial cars
VA - .859 - .143A 1 < A < 5
R2 * .98, 75 observations.
VA - .14 A > 5
Private cars
VA - exp(.063 - .173A)
R2 - .98, 162 observations.
VA - .13 A > 12
VA - exp(-.294 - .124A)
R2 _ .99, number of observations unknown.
VA - .11 A > 15
Buses
VA - exp(-.053 - .169A)
R2 _ .99, 240 observations.
VA - .12 A > 12
Medium trucks
VA - exp(-.185 - .175A)
R2 . .92, 180 observations.
VA - .10 A > 12
Heavy trucks
VA - exp(-.174 - .160A)
R2 .94, 120 observations.
VA - .12 A > 12
A8.4 India
Notation
DV - (resale price of vehicle after deducting premium due to shortages)

new vehicle price
A - age in years.
Cars
DV - 0.9223A
R2 _ .97, 192 observations.
Buses and trucks
DV - 0.8631A
RZ _ .92, 127 observations.

APPENDIX B. OPTIMAL VEHICLE LIVES
In this appendix the method used to obtaln estimates of optimal

vehicle lives and thus of depreciation and interest costs is descrlbed.
In order to deduce optimal vehicle lives (s, measured in years) we solve
the equation:
(A8.2.1) m(s) - m(t))e rtdt - VP
where r Is the per time period continuous discount rate, VP Is new vehicle
price and m(t) is the per year rate of flow of running costs for a t year
old vehicle. Some manipulation of the studies' results Is required before
equations corresponding to (A8.2.1) can be obtained.
First note that running costs that do not vary with vehicle age
can be neglected when solving for s. Thus, If m(t) - mO + m1 (t) then
optimal vehicle life satisfies (A8.2.1) with m(t) replaced by m1 (t). The
four studies find that only maintenance costs are substantially affected
by vehicle age and they report maintenance costs expressed per 103
kilometers for vehicles 103 K kilometers old as functions which we denote
here by n1 (K). These functions vary across vehicle classes and across
studies and depend on highway characteristics but these dependencies are
not made explicit here.
Let m1 (t) be the per year analogue of the per 103 kilometer rate
of flow of costs, n1 (K) and let utilization (103 km/year) be denoted by u.
We make the crucial assumption that utilization does not vary wlth vehicle
age. If It does, then (A8.2.1) Is no longer the optimal scrapping
condition. With this assumption m1 (t) - un1 (ut), since K - ut, and in
terms of the cost functions reported by the studies the optimal scrapping
conditlon Is:
(A8.2.2)
r (un1(us) - un1 (ut))e
-rt
dt - VP.
Let K. - us denote optimal vehicle life In 103 kilometers. Then (A8.2.2)

can be rewritten as:
(A8.2.3) JrK (n1 (Ks) - n1 (K))e

-rk/u
dK - VP.
0
Given knowledge of n1 (.) provided by the studies, values for r,

u, and VP, (A8.2.3), can be solved for optimal lives measured In
103 kilometers, K., and for optimal lives measured In years, Ks/u. Then,
n1 (Ks) gives the vehicle age Invariant sum of per 103 kilometer
maintenance,depreciationand Interestcosts.
All the maintenance (parts and labor) equations reported by the

studies can be expressed in the form:
(A8.2.4) n1 (K) - a + a1 K 2 -
For example, In the Kenyan study, maintenance parts costs per 103km for
cars are:
P - VP(-2.03+ .0018R)(K+ 38)
and maintenance labor costs per 103km are:
w(.00851 - .00000078R)(P/VP)
where w Is the hourly mechanics wage rate, R Is road roughness (mm/km) and
VP is new vehicle price. Rearranginggives:
ao - 38(-2.03 + .0018R)(VP+ w(.00851 - .00000078R))
a1 - a0 /38
P1 - 1, a2 - P2 - 0-
Those studies which report labor costs as a non-linear functionof parts

costs (Brazil, India) generate functionswith P2 ¢ 0, a2 ¢ °-
Substitutingfor n1 (K) in equation (A8.2.3)gives:
fKs(a1KsP + a 2KsP2 _ 1KPi - a2 KP2)erK/udK - VP
as the equation determining Ks. Changing variable to q - rK/u, and

defining:
qs - rKs/u
315
CALCULATION OF TRANSPORT COSTS
X, - a 1 (u/r) 1
p2
X2 - a2 (u/r) 2
r(a,b) - Jx e dx, the Incomplete Gamma function,

0
we have:
P1 P2 -qs
(A8.2.5) (X1 qs + X2qs )(1 - e ) - AL(qC)
- rVP/u + xlr(pi
+ 1,qs)+ X2r(p2 + 1,qs)
- AR(qs)
for Ks - uqs/r. Optimal vehicle life

which must be solved for qs and thus
In years Is qs/r.
Figure A8.2.1: Determination of Optimal Vehicle Life
,~~~~~~~~~~~~ (q
(qs)
AL~~~~A
-Aus
rVp
U
0 optimal q.
Z_ _ _ (a1+ 1) + 2 (a2+ 1)
The studies all report a1 , a2 > 0, max (a1 , a2 ) > 0, which ensures
similar conditions apply to X1 and X2* and they report pil P2 2 0. Under
these conditions (A8.2.5) admits a unique positive solution for q5 .
The solution to (A8.2.5) Is depicted In Figure A8.2.1 with a

single positive solution for qs - rKs/u - rs. The equation Is easily
solved using Newton's method.
Optimal lives, maintenance, depreciation, and interest costs

obtained using this method are given In Section 8.3.
CHAPTER 9
The Costs of Transport Services
In this chapter estimates of vehicle operating costs under

alternative highway conditions are presented and compared. The estimates
are discussed In Section 9.1 and details of their calculation and cost
tables are given In Appendix A. The concluding Section 9.2 Is concerned
with the use and transferability of the studies' results.
It must be stressed that the calculations reported here are only

illustrative. They are obtained using a number of simplifying assumptions
that may well not be appropriate in particular applications. Users will
need to perform their own calculations, perhaps along the lines described
In Section 9.1, using prices relevant to the economic environment in which
they are working and taking Into account the local conditlons that they
face. The calculations presented below are Intended to give some feel for
the ways In which highway conditions affect the cost of provision of
transportation and they allow us to see whether the results obtained in
the four user cost studles are In broad agreement.
In fact there is a good deal of agreement among the four studies

on the broad effects of highway conditions on the costs of provision of
transport services. However, the precise magnitudes Involved are
predicted somewhat differently by the four studies. In part this Is a
result of differences in the models used and It is also due to sampling
variations. In each of the country studies samples of vehicles were used
and limited numbers of experiments were performed. For all cost
components the reported equations are statistical estimates of cost
equations and they are necessarily, to some extent, inaccurate. Some of
the differences In the cost predictions reported here may be due to
differences In the economic and physical environments encountered In the
four studies. We examine this issue In Section 9.2. It is a matter of
some Importance, for users of the equations will typically face economic
and physlcal conditions that differ from those found In the four studies,
and they will wish to consider the extent to which the results reported
here are relevant to their application.
9.1 COSTS OF PROVISION OF TRANSPORT SERVICES
The tables in the Appendix to this chapter give predictions by

user cost study and vehicle class of costs per thousand kilometers
associated with fuel, lubricants, tires, maintenance parts, maintenance
labor, depreciation, interest, and crew. Because Information on accident
costs is not available for most of the studies these are not Included.
The experience of the Brazilian study suggests that, to allow for vehicle
repair costs arising as a result of accidents, maintenance expenditures
317
318 COSTS OF TRANSPORT SERVICES
may need to be Increased by as much as 18 percent. We do not Include any

costs associated with capital equipment except those associated with
ownership of the vehicle fleet, because the necessary information is not
provided by the studies. Interest and depreciation costs associated with
ownership of office and garage accommodation and of tools and other
maintenance equipment are not included in the Illustrative calculations,
even though In the long run these may be variable costs. Thus the
maintenance labor wage rates used to predict maintenance labor costs are
Intended to reflect wages paid to mechanics, not labor charges made by
commercial garages to customers, which may reflect rents on property,
equipment, and so forth. Time savings are not included in these
Illustrative calculations except In so far as they are assumed to allow
Increased utilization of vehicles and crew and consequently lower
depreciation, Interest and crew costs per thousand kilometers. Time
savings In hours per thousand kilometers are easily calculated by dividing
the vehicle speeds recorded In the tables In the following appendix, Into
1,000.
Costs are calculated using prices In local currencles as they

were, In so far as we can Judge, at the dates at which the studies were
carrled out. Thus results obtained using respectively the Indian,
Brazillan, Caribbean, and Kenyan equatlons are presented In respectively
1978 Rupees, 1976 Cruzeiros, 1978 Eastern Caribbean Dollars, and 1973
Kenyan Shillings. Where the necessary Information Is available some
calculations have been performed using prices net of Indirect taxes of
primary incidence (notably gasoline, vehicle purchase, and tire sales
taxes) as well as using prices pald by transport firms.
It would be possible to convert all costs to a common currency at

a single date, but errors Introduced by Inaccuracies In price deflators,
and exchange rate anomalies make comparisons of cost levels misleading.
Since we are prlmarily Interested in the cost differentials associated
with alternative highway configurations which are, of course, unchanged
under such conversions, the costs have been left In local currencies at
study dates.
The prices used to calculate vehicle operating costs are recorded

In Table 9.1, gross and net of Indirect taxes where the necessary
Information Is available. Exchange rates against the U.S. Dollar at the
times that the studies were performed are also shown In this table.
Relative prices vary substantially across the studies. Table 9.2 shows
for each country the cost of a new bus, a new truck and of a 1,000 x 20
tire In terms of liters of diesel fuel In prices gross and net of taxes,
and the price of a new car and a car tire in terms of liters of gasoline.
Of course some of the variation Is due to differences In vehicle
specification but It seems clear comparing the price relatives that
vehicles were expensive relative to fuel In Brazil and cheap relative to
fuel In India at the times at which the studies were conducted.
Depreciation and Interest costs are, where possible, calculated

once using the studies vehicle value-calendar age equations (the VA
method) and once using the studies' maintenance cost equations to solve
for terminal maintenance costs and thus the age invariant sum of
Table 9.1: Prices and Exchange Rates
INDIA BRAZIL CARIB8EAN KENYA

K
Itexi Amnount Price Prke Not Prim Prke Not Price Pr" Not |Prim Prim Not
(Rupees) of Tax (Cruzeiros) of Tax (E.Caribbean 4) of Tax (Shilings) of TAx
Fuel: gasoline I liter 3.47 1.94 3.24 1.60 0.55 _ 1.1
7
Fuel: dbeel 1 liter 1.73 1.36 1.54 1.20 0.47 - I - 0.9
Engine oil 1 liter 6.S4 3.43 7.76 3.88 2.64 _ _4.68
Other aU tI llr 11.42 5.7t _7 P
Grous 1kIg. 10.Z9 5.15 __ + __
Tire: car jIUre 4100(5.90x15) 216 160)(165x3) 139 80(165x13) _ 1t60(165x13)

Uuty |1tire I _ _ 278(750I13) 242 - _ _ 16)(t65x13)
bus Itire 1964 9001X20) 1007 1942 (1000x20) 16Y9(1) ___ 1250 (100;0M)
medium truck 1 tire 2245(1000x20) 1212 1942(100lW 20) 1689 475(825x20) _ _ SS0(l0x20)
heavyartic buck I tire 2430(110tx20) 1312 2054(110x22) 1766 - _ 11400(1100t 22)
Vehicle: cur |I whkle 64800 39880 4300=QZ) 37W6I(2) 21000 _ _ 181

utJlity Ivewhkb - - 43670 37646 - _ _ 3GOO0
W bs 11Vehiclb 234000 140400 316970 273250 _ _ _ 117O0
mad buck 1 vehicle 180700 108420 138621 119501 48000 _ _ 560w0
heavy buck |1 vehicle - - 170961 147380 142000
artc truck 11 vehicle 317En 2739 225000(3)
artc trailer 1 vehicle - 1
Lsbor: mechanic 1 hour 2.25 2.05 13 7.8 - _ _ 6

cr: car 1 hour 3.50 3.18 15 I 9.0 2.8 _ I _ 4.5
crew: utity 1 hour - - 15 S9.0 - _ 4.5
crew: bus 1 hour 3.50 3.18 5 9.0 - 8.0
crew: aed buck, hour 3.50 3.18 15 9.0 2.8 _ _ 8.0
crew: heavy 1 hour 3.50 3.18 15 9.0 9.5
Date for prces July: 1978 j 17//76 1978 1973

Currency:
Exchange rate at study date:
Rupees
t 4 = 8. 6 Rupes
Cruzeros
1 4 = 8. 13 Cruzeiros
I Eaten
1aCaribbean Dollars
= 2.74EC
Shillings
1 4 = 7.14 Shillings
(1) Price of 900 x 20 tire, Brazil, 1471 Cruzeiros groas of tax, 1279 Cruzeiros net of tax.
(2) GM Chvroblt Opal,price of VW 1300 is ICr 31856 Inc. taxes. $Cr 27462. exc. taxes.
(3) Price of 3-axle heavy truck and 3-axle draw-bar trailer.
Source: See appendix to this chapter.

Table 9.2: ApproxImate Price Relatives
INDIA T BRAZIL CARIBBEAN KE_

_A
Prices i
Pres Pric Prices Pries PricPri Pri
Price Relative Inc. xc. inc. exc. i Inc. exc. inc. exc.
Taxs Taxs Tat" TMe j TOMe Taes TMes Tows
Price of New Bu 135000 000 00 20O000 228000 | - - _ 130000

Price of 1 liter diesl 1
Price of now mod. trucx 104000 790 102-

Price of 1 liter dies
lit r tire 1300 9Ct 1300 14000Ot( - 1400
Price of now car 19000 2000C 100W(2) 1700I (2) 38Wt - - 16000
Price of 1 liter gasoline
W Prke. a tire( 3 ) 115 110 50 f5 145 _ 146

Nt Price of 1 iter guoline
(1) 825 x 20 tire

(2) VW 1300. price relatives for G.M, Chevrolet Opal& are inc. taxs: 13000. exo. taxes:23000.
(3) 166 x 13 except: India. 5.90 x 15.
COSTS OF TRANSPORT SERVICES 321
maintenance, depreciation and Interest costs (the OL method), as described

In Section 8.3 and Appendix B of Chapter 8.
A real discount rate of 12 percent is used In calculating

Interest and depreciation costs. It Is likely that rates facing firms
differed across the studies and this may explain some of the observed
differences In maintenance costs and vehicle replacement decisions. We
have no information to help us choose study specific discount rates and
proceed using a single value, noting that In applications the discount
rate, like all the prices used here, will require adjustments. It would
be Interesting to consider the effect on costs of varying the discount
rate and the prices used In the Illustrative calculations, but anything
approaching a complete Investigation of price effects would very
substantially increase the volume of results to be presented.
The calculations require values for vehicle utilization

(103 km/year) and these have been obtained using two assumptions. Our
Intention Is to use assumptions whose import Is clear and which are easily
adjusted. As noted above the calculations presented In this chapter are
purely Illustrative and cannot be applied without modification In
assessing benefits to highway Investments. The first assumption we make
Is that hours driven per year are fixed, Invariant under changes In
highway conditions. In calculations with the Brazilian, Indian, and
Kenyan equations we specify 1,500 hours driven per year for cars and
medium trucks and 2,500 hours driven per year for buses and heavy trucks.
The problems that arise In predlcting costs using the Caribbean study's
equations for vehicles with utilization typical of that found In the other
studies have been noted In Chapters 7 and 8. In calculations with the
Caribbean study's equations we assume only 350 hours driven per year
corresponding to the low utilisation recorded for the vehicles surveyed In
the Caribbean study.
Assuming that hours driven per year are fixed Is likely to result
in cost predictions that are to some extent more sensitive to highway
conditions than will be found In practice. Firms faced with a
deterioration In highway conditions are likely to adjust hours driven to
minimise cost Increases and firms faced with highway Improvements are
likely to make adlustments to maximise the cost reductions that can be
achieved. None of the studies provide generally applicable results
concerning these sorts of adjustments, so we proceed assuming hours driven
are fixed.
To compute kilometers travelled per year the fixed hours driven

are multiplied by vehicle speeds (recorded In the sequences of Tables
which follow) predicted using the relevant equations In Chapter 4 In Part
If (i.e., Kenyan study equations for Kenyan study cost tables, etc.) Thus
our second assumption, discussed earlier In Section 8.2 of Chapter 8, Is
that time savings attendant on highway Improvements, due to increased
vehicle speed, are exploited to Increase utilisation.
Two further points should be noted. The first Is that the

vehicle speeds used here are obtained from observation of free flow speeds
and, In the case of the Brazilian speed model, from data on vehicles
attaining steady state speed. It is likely that the vehicle speeds are,
to some extent, over estimates. The second Is that costs are expressed
per thousand kilometers. Trucks in particular are commonly overloaded and
the extent of overloading may well vary with highway conditions and across
countries. Users will want to take account of overloading and calculate
costs on a passenger, tonne, or volume kilometer basis, as appropriate,
depending on the nature of the transport service provided.
In many applications users will wish to make assumptions other

than those employed in producing the cost tables given below. These
tables are not intended as reference tables to be applied without
modifications In planning exercises. They are presented to give some
Indication of the relative magnitudes of effects on costs associated with
different highway characteristics, to provide the reader with a feel for
the way In which the effects described In the previous chapters add up to
produce effects on total costs, and to allow us to compare the results
concerning total costs that emerge from the four studies.
The details of the calculation of the cost components are

described in the appendix.
The Appendix Tables A9.1 - A9.9 give predlctions of cost

components and of total costs on a per 1,000 kilometer basis for cars,
buses, medium trucks, and heavy trucks using prices gross of taxes as
given In Table 9.1 and equations generated by three of the four studies.
These tables are calculated using the VA method to determine depreciation
and Interest costs. Kenyan price data are only available net of indirect
taxes of primary incidence so Kenyan study predictions are not included in
this sequence of table though they are considered later. We have not
calculated bus cost predictions using Carlbbean study equations and only
the Braziilan study equations are used to generate predictions for heavy
trucks. These predictions relate to large articulated vehicles - tractors
and trailers.
Consider first the percentage contributions to total costs of

Individual cost components. For all but the Carlbbean vehicles fuel costs
are a substantial proportion of total operating costs, especially for cars
for which fuel costs make up around 50 percent of the total. Tire costs
are a much lower proportion of total costs for cars than for the other
vehicle types. For trucks and buses they make up 15-20 percent of total
costs though again the proportion Is rather iower for the Caribbean
vehicles. Note that in producing predlctions for these vehicles
utillsatlon has been set to a very low value, commensurate with the
Caribbean study's experience, so that depreciation and interest costs are
a rather higher proportion of total costs In the Caribbean study cost
tables. Estimates of the Importance of depreciation and Interest costs
vary somewhat across the studies. These reflect differences In predicted
speeds and thus utillsation as well as differences In the studies vehicle
value-calendar age equations. Except for the Caribbean cars, maintenance
costs are rarely predicted to make up more than 30 percent of total
vehicle operating costs per 1,000 kilometers, but this figure depends
crucially on the calendar and kilometer ages used to produce these tables.
The VA method produces depreciation and Interest costs that,

expressed per unit of time, are Invariant to changes In highway
conditions. Expressed per unit distance these costs do vary with highway
conditions because vehicle speed Is sensitive to roughness, vertical, and
horizontal geometry.
Table 9.3 shows costs expressed as a proportion of costs Incurred

on a relatively smooth, flat, straight highway. In the discussion of this
Table we Isolate for attentlon five specific block rows shown as rows "R,"
"G," "C," "GC" and "GCR" in Table 9.4 which serves as a "map" of Table
9.3. The top left hand row "B" (for "Base") gives the basis for cost
comparisons which has roughness set to 2,000 mm/km (except for the
Caribbean, 4,000 mm/km), rise + fall set to 10 m/km and curvature set to
1000 /km.
The block row "R" (for "Roughness") shows cost Increases as very
rough routes (10,000 mm/km) are encountered on routes with good geometry.
The row above this shows the effect of less extreme roughness. Generally
cars are predicted to be particularly affected by roughness Increases,
costs rising by from 60 to nearly 100 percent as extreme roughness Is
encountered. Bus costs are predicted to be least sensitive to roughness,
costs only Increasing by around 40 percent as extreme roughness is
encountered.
The block row "C" (for "Curvature") shows the effect of

Increasing curvature from 1000 /km to 5000 /km, which represents quite a
sinuous route, on flat highways with good paved surfaces. The Brazilian
study equations predict a moderate increase in costs, 15-20 percent for
cars and trucks, but the other studies suggest increases of only around
one-third to one-half of this. The relatively large curvature effects
predlcted by the Brazilian study equations come largely through large
predlcted speed reductions (around 25 to 30 percent) which, under the
assumptions made, lead to increases in depreciatlon, interest, and crew
costs per kilometer. Of course the constant hours driven and the
appropriateness of the vehicle value age equations are crucial here.
The row "G" (for "Gradient") in Table 9.3 shows the effect of
Increasing rise + fall on a smooth, relatively stralght route. All the
studies predict very small effects on car costs, largely because car
speeds are generally found to be Insensitive to all but severe gradients.
The effects on buses and trucks are more marked. The Brazilian and Indian
studies reach close agreement on the effect of gradient on bus costs,
predicting an increase In costs of around 25 percent as average rise +
fall increases from 10 m/km to 50 m/km.
The row "GC" (for "Gradlent" and "Curvature") allows us to obtain

some idea of the effects of moving from highways with good geometry In
plain areas to typical mountainous terrain. The row "GC" corresponds to a
smooth route wlth quite severe vertical and horizontal geometry. Indian
car costs are relatively unaffected. The Brazilian and Caribbean studies
suggest similar effects, but the low utilisatlon assumed in the
calculation of Caribbean cost tables makes comparison difficult. But
costs are predicted to be around 35 percent higher on this steep and
Table 9.3: Predicted Ratios of Costs Including Taxes on Highways with Given Characteristics to Costs
on Highways with 2,000 mm/km Roughness, 10 m/km Rise + Fall, and 1000 /km Average Degree
of Curvature
_ Syvo CURVATURE : lo0/Ii CURVATURE: SW*1mI

Roughnes I
EN IR car ans k.dium Truck Atti car an Medium Truck Artie
(mm/km) (m/km) . _ Truck Trwck
India rmzai C_rlb4 Indi Braznd Inil BrCzil CaIbbean ii K BrZu CariWb,en lTnd Brazil C-abznr-B Czibb_ rall
Rb_ 2.8 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.21 1.10 1.08 1.0Q 1.06 1.14 1.10 1.15
Rism
Pkl 6000 7.4 1.16 1.31 1.33 1.13 1.22 1.19 1.37 1.19 1.38 1.19 1.73 1.45 1.22 1.43 1.26 1.61 1.23 1.62
Fall-
1oo00 12.0 1.e0 1.91 1.89 1.34 1.53 1.45 1.80 1.32 - 1. 71 2.23 2.04 1.46 1.70 1.61 1.98 1.47 -
2000 2. 1.04 1.01 1.06 1.24 1.29 1.2z 1.42 1.21 1.49 1.06 1.22 1.10 1.33 1.40 1.36 1.56 1.38 1.58
ui ~~Rise
r'a Pkla 6000 7.4 1.28 1.32 1.40 1.4? 1.48 1.84 1.J1 1.43 1.81 1.34 1.74 1.83 1.62 1.r3 1. 4 2.09 1.S0 1.96
50n/km
10000 12.0 1.93 1.92 1.8 1.66 1.62 2.02 2.24 1.88 - 2.13 2.12 2.11 2.06 2.37 2.45 1.2 _
ODprecation and Interest

cost calculated using studies vehicl value - vehie ge equations.
Table 9.4: "Map of Table 9.3
su4fm OMVA1UE U CURVATURE 5iPkm
(mmlk,m) CAv a" Mmdiii.

Truck Artic Cw a Mmiim Truck Allic
1ndiSMZk rbbmm kx. Smz i kazN C bil

Tafmm Mi Brl Cl hWM BaI h dbAil C.a llil
Rl' -lllO
R O WR B"
. W
O ROn
R ¢ C ".
am
Fall OOtlO._ ___
lOmf/Im IO - R 0 W nR.
Al" 2010 O
R W "Gi O
R W "GCi
Plus
Fall __.___
bami_ lOO R 0 W rGCRn
sinuous route. Articulated trucks' costs (obtained from the Brazilian

study) are affected quite severely, as are Brazilian trucks generally.
The lower right hand block row "GCR" (for "Gradient," "Curvature," and
"Roughness") allows us to compare a rough road with poor geometry and a
smooth, relatively flat,and straight route. For virtually all vehicle
classes costs are predicted to be at least twice as high per kilometer on
the poor quality route.
Table 9.5 summarizes some Illustrative calculations of costs per

thousand kilometers using prices net of Indirect taxes of primary
Incidence. The equations for car costs obtained In the Kenyan study could
not be extrapolated to curvature as severe as 5000 /km so the results for
Kenyan cars relate to curvature of 1000 /km and 3000 /km. Prices net of tax
could not be obtained for the Caribbean at the study date so no Caribbean
study predictions appear in this sequence of tables. A direct comparison
of the studies' predictions using prices net of tax can be gained by
examining Table 9.6 which shows predlctlons of medium truck costs using
the Indian, Brazilian, and Kenyan study equations. Fuel costs make up a
relatively small proportion of total costs In the Kenyan truck predictions
while crew costs are a relatively major contributor.
The effects of highway characteristics on costs are very similar,

gross and net of taxes. Consider first row "R" which can be located using
the "map" provided by Table 9.4. This row shows the effect of roughness.
Large roughness effects are predicted by the Kenyan study car equations.
Smaller effects are predicted using the Indian and Brazilian study
Table 9.5: Predicted Ratios of Costs Excluding Taxes on Highways wlth Given Characteristics to Costs
on Highways with 2,000 mm/km Roughness, 10 m/km Rise + Fall, and 1000 /km Degrees of Curvature
CURVATURE:
Suraose CURVATURE: 1olkm 300I/km CURVATURE 500S/km
Car Bus Medium Truck Crs Medium Truck

Bl (mm/km )_ ._ __ __ .____ __._______
(IRI(m/km)) Km" Indi Brazil Kenya Km"na Kenya India Braio KW"
2000 (2.8) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.03 1.27 1.05 1.10 1.26
Rim_ _ __ _ __ _
Plus
R
Fall 6W0 (7.4) 1.97 1.51 1.19 1.39 1.40 2.19 1.78 1.27 1.62 1.87
1000 (12.0) 2.78 1.90 1.48 1.85 1.71 3.07 2.20 1.63 2.09 2.25
2000 (2.8) 1.06 1.16 1.25 1.42 1.18 1.14 1.95 1.35 1.54 1.98
Rime _
Fal 600 (7.4) 2.05 1.73 1.53 1.82 1.59 2.39 2.66 1.72 2.05 _
60m/km _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
0W000 (12.0) 2.88 2.15 2.03 2.30 1.91 3.31 3.26 2.37 2.52 _
Depreciation and interest costs calculat . using the studie" vehicle value-vehicle
age equations (se Chapter 8)
Table 9.6: Comparison of Cost Ratios for Medium Trucks Including and Excluding Taxes
Surface CURVATURE 100°/bun CURVATURE 500°/kn

Roughness
INDIA BRAZIL INDIA BRAZIL
81(mm/km )
(IRI(m/km)) Including Excluding Including Excluding Including Exdluding Including Excluding
Taxes Taes Taxes Txes Taxes Taxes Taxes Taws
2000 (2.81 1.-1J 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.06 1.05 1.11 1.10
Plus
FaN 6000 (7.41 1.19 1.19 1t37 1.39 1.26 1.27 1.61 1.62
10000 (12.0) 1.45 1.48 1.80 1.85 1.61 1.63 1.98 2.09
W 20o0 (2.8) 1.27 1.25 1.42 1.42 1.38 1.35 1.55 1.54
Rise _ _ _
Plus
Fall 6000 (7.4) 1.54 1.53 1.81 j 1.82 1.74 1.Z2 2.03 2.05
50mtkm _ _
10000 (12.0) 2.02 2.03 2.24 2.30 2.37 2.37 2.45 2.52
Depreciation and interext costs calculated using the studies' vehicle value-vehicle age equations (see Chapter 8)
equations and prices including taxes. Roughness effects on bus costs are
also predicted to be relatively high using the Kenyan study equations and
prices net of taxes, costs nearly doubling as roughness increases from
2,000 mm/km to 10,000 mm/km. For medium trucks the Brazilian and Kenyan
study equations predict rather similar roughness effects, costs Increasing
by about 80 percent as extreme roughness is encountered.
The row 'C" shows the effect of increasing average degrees of

curvature from 1000 /km to 5000 /km on a smooth flat route. The Kenyan
study equations predict large curvature effects for trucks but not for
cars. These are due to large predicted curvature effects on truck speeds.
Note that the car results refer to a 3000 /km not a 5000 /km route because
the Kenyan car equations cannot be extrapolated to extreme curvature. The
row "RI indicates the effect of Increasing average rise + fall from 10
m/km to 50 m/km. As in the other studies the gradient effects are
predicted to be small for cars using the Kenyan study equations. For
trucks the results obtained using the Kenyan study equations are also
qulte similar to those obtained with the other equations, costs being
predicted to Increase by 18 percent. As in Table 9.3, costs more than
double on moving to a rough, steep, and sinuous route, the effects on car
costs being particularly severe.
So far we have examined cost predictions calculated using the

studies' vehicle value - calendar age equations to produce estimates of
depreciation and interest costs. As we noted In Chapter 8, unless these
equations are well matched to the equations used to predict other costs,
there can be problems In interpreting the predictions that result, which
can be sensitive to the specification of vehicle age.
An alternative is to calculate all costs using the studies'

running cost equations alone, regarding terminal running costs as equal to
a vehicle age Invariant sum of running costs and depreciation and interest
costs. Predlctions obtained In this way, using the OL method described In
Chapter 8 are given in Appendix Tables A9.10 - A9.18 and summarised in
Table 9.7. The same broad conclusions reached earlier concerning the
contributions of components to total vehicle operating costs come through
here. Fuel costs are a high proportion of total costs for Brazilian cars,
for which tire costs are low, and fuel costs make up around 20-30 percent
of total costs for Brazilian and Indian buses and trucks. As before the
Caribbean predictions are Influenced by the low utilisation assumed in
calculating these tables. For these vehicles, maintenance, depreciation,
and Interest costs make up around 70 percent of total costs but for Indian
and Brazilian vehicles, assumed to be achieving much higher utilisation,
they make up less than 50 percent. Depreciation and interest cost per
unit distance calculated by the OL method are sensitive to roughness
because the method links these costs with maintenance costs which depend
on roughness and because of the effect of roughness on vehicle speed.
They are sensitive to vertical and horizontal geometry because vehicle
speed, and thus utilisation, depend on these highway conditions.
For most vehicle classes the effects of highway conditions are

less marked for costs calculated by the OL method, but the differences are
rarely substantial. The Brazilian articulated truck predictions are more
Table 9.7: Predicted Ratios of Costs InclUding Taxes on Highways with Given Characteristics to Costs on
Highways with 2,000 mm/km Roughness, 10 rn/km Rise + Fall, and 100 0 /km Average Degrees of Curvature
Surfaeo CURVATURE
IODOIlN 500fl.rn
CIJRVATURE
Roughness
~~Car Bus Truck Atccar
Medium BsMdu rc ri
el IRI _ _ _ _ ___Truck __ _ _ _ _ _ _-_ _ _ _ Truck
Brazil CaribbeanI Ini Brazil India iBrazi Caben Brazil IBrazil Caribbean Indi Brazil Ini BrzlCiben rzl
Rime 200 2. .0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 I1.00 1.00 11.00 1.18s 1.04 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.09 1.04 1.10
Fall~ 60 {1. 33 1.35 1.12 1.18 i .s .7 1.24 1.33 11. 70 1.'40 1.20 1.36 1.30 1.56 1.29 1.50
iooco12.0 1.92 1.83 1.31 1.44 1,~441 1.75 j 1.34 t -[2.219 1.881 1.43 1.57 1.58 1.859 1.40-
L RI" 2000 2.8 1.01 1.04 1.22 i1.241 1.25 1.38 1.16 11.40 1.19s 1.09 .3 1.33 1.35 1.51 1.23 1.47
Fall 600 7.4 1.34 1.39 i1.43 1.451 1.51 1.76 1.40 1.88 1.71 1.44 1.57 1.61 1.70 1.94 1.48 1.60
10000
12.0 1.93 ~1.68 1.7 1.9612.14 1.82 2.20 1.94 2.01 1.90 2.28 2.33 1.6.3-
Depreciationand interest coats calculated by solving for optimnalvehicle lives and evaluating terminal running coats (see Chapter 8).
330 COSTSOF TRANSPORT
SERVICES
affected than most, costs being predicted to be 80 percent higher on the

worst case route than on the best case route by the OL method but 96
percent higher by the VA method. For most vehicle classes the differences
are smaller than this.
9.2 TRANSFERABILITYAND USE OF COST EQUATIONS
We have now examined the studies' predictions concerning the

influencesof highway conditions on costs of provision of transport
services. While some similaritiesemerge there are evident differences in
the studies' predictionsand in consequence those who need to predict the
cost changes arising as a result of highway investmentsneed to choose
amongst the equations.
Of course all the results presented earlier are estimates or

predictions, the results of statistical analysis of what are not
particularly large data sets, containing observations of what are
generally rather variable costs. Many Influences on these costs went
unmeasured In the studies and the measurements that were taken were far
from perfect. Thus there are many dimensions to highway surface condition
and geometry, summarised in just three measures In the analysis of the
studies' data, and many features of vehicles and of the firms that owned
them which one might expect to influence costs do not appear In the
studies' equations. It would thereforebe optimistic to expect very close
agreement between the studies' results, even if they were generated under
broadly similar conditions.
However, It is evident that conditions were not similar In the

study regions. Two major influences working to produce dissimilarityIn
the studies' results should be noted because they are relevant to the
choice and use of the equations given earlier. They are vehicle design
and the economic environment.
The costs of providing transport services depend upon the prices

at which inputs are purchased and on the ways In which Inputs can be
efficiently combined to produce transport services, that is on the
production function. Changes in highway conditions lead to changes In
this productionfunctionwhich maps from efficient combinationsof inputs
to output, and it Is these changes that are the focus of, for example, the
fuel consumptionexperiments that are reported In Part 11, In Chapter 5.
The production function facing transport firms is also affected by vehicle
design and technology,fuel and tire quality and similar factors. The
production function facing the Indian firms studied by the IndianCentral
Road Research Institute differed substantially from that facing the
Brazilian firms studied by GEIPOT and their collaborators and we can
expect these sorts of differences to be influential In producing
differences in the effects of highway conditions on vehicle operating
costs. For example, the relatively high powered Brazilian vehicles
travelledmuch faster than Indian vehicles and on relativelyuncongested
highways, and consequentlyexperienced more substantial speed changes on
encounteringpoor quality surfaces.
Relative prices of Inputs to production are Important

determinants of Input usage and of the response of costs to changes in the
production function induced by changes In highway conditions, and price
configurations did vary across the environments in which the results
reported earlier were obtained, as noted in Chapter 3. To the extent that
firms have flexibility In organising efficient production, that is to the
extent that there are opportunities for substituting alternative inputs,
one for another, different input price configurations will lead to
different methods for organising production and, except in special cases,
to different relative weights of the many inputs to the production of
transport services. In practice firms do have flexibility in organising
efficient production. Speeds, loads carried, vehicle capacities, engine
specificatlons and hours driven are all adjustable. Maintenance
activities can be adjusted and vehicle scrapping delayed or advanced. So
In general we can expect to see differences in the contributions to total
costs of the various inputs to the production of transport services when
we compare costs In environments in which relative prices differ,
differences which reflect price differences, but which also reflect
choices concerning how to organise production.
When assessing the benefits to a highway investment it is the

reduction In total transport costs per unit of output that arises that is
of Interest. It is notable that in all the studies reported earlier
little attention was paid directly to these total costs, the focus being
rather on the component costs that make up the total. In general if
changes in highway conditions lead to differential changes In the
productivity of inputs to the production of transport services then firms
faced wlth changes in highway conditions will reorganise their affairs so
as to minimise the impact of highway deterioration and maximise the impact
of highway improvement. This reorganisation, involving possibly changes
in operating speeds, loads carried, dates for vehicle replacement, choice
of vehicle type, and so forth - will be Influenced by the relative prices
of Inputs to the production of transport services.
One route to predicting the impact on costs of changing highway

conditions Is to measure the influence of highway conditions on the output
achieved by efficiently combining inputs, that is, to measure the
production function and Its response to changes in highway conditions, and
to combine the resulting model of the production "technology" with an
economic model of the cost minimising firm, an input to which will be
information on the production function and the relative prices for Inputs
that firms face. Given such a model we could then with some confidence
produce predictions of the effects of highway conditions on costs In
alternative physical and economic environments, though we would of course
need to inspect the prevailing conditions closely to determine whether the
assumptions underlying such a model could be reasonably maintained.
This approach has not been taken in the four studies reported In
this book. Only in the case of fuel consumption have results been
obtained which bear directly on the technological relationship between
highway conditions and the productivity of an Input to the production of
transport services. The other data that were collected give information
about the effects of highway conditions on firms' uses of various Inputs,
other Inputs varying as firms adJust their manner of production so as to

minimise costs. In general the effects of highway conditions on a given
Inputs' usage will depend upon the prices of inputs, on the nature of the
production function and on the effect of changes In highway conditions on
all Inputs' productivities. While the results reported here do bear
directly on the responses of Interest, they embody the influences of
prices and generally the economic and technological environment In the
locations and at the times at which they are obtained. To some extent the
differences in the studies' predictions concerning the effects of highway
conditions on vehicle operating costs are due to differences In relative
prices of Inputs to production of transport services, as well as to
differences in vehicle technology and design.
Other features of the environment are Important too. We have

noted earlier the problems that arise when the Caribbean study's
equations, derived from vehicles achieving only low utilisation, because
of the sporadic and seasonal nature of demand for transportation, are
applied In a high utilisatlon environment. When utilisation Is low cost
components like fuel and tire costs are a relatively small proportion of
total costs and this affects the sensitivity to highway conditions of
total vehicle operating costs. In principle the cost equations and
predlctions presented earlier are not freely transferable across space and
time. Whether or not they produce good approximations Is a matter for
empirical study and for careful checking In applications, and depends upon
the extent to which firms can adjust thelr production processes and on the
local conditions encountered compared to those prevailing when the four
studies were performed.
In practice determining the technological relationships llnking

Inputs to the production of transport services, and constructing a
realistic model of firms' behaviour Is an enormous task and predictions of
costs and the effects of highway conditions on them obtalned via this
route are not available. And In practice planners need guidance on the
sorts of magnitudes of cost reductions that can arise when highways are
Improved. The results presented In this book can provide that guidance,
so long as they are used with care. In this regard, the following points
deserve mention.
First, it has to be accepted that, as noted earlier, all the

results reported are estimates or predictions and are consequently subject
to error. The equations cannot be expected to be helpful in ordering
alternative Investment projects that yield rather similar cost savings.
Second, since the equations all embody the effects of the technological
and economic conditions at the times that the studies were performed,
great care should be taken In applying them In radlcally different
environments. Users would be well advised to check on the magnitudes of
the cost differentials that the equations predict. In competitive
environments this may be done by comparing prices charged for
transportation on alternative routes that differ in terms of highway
conditlons. With horizontal long run supply curves these prices provide a
direct window on the marginal and average costs of provision of transport
services. Third, the levels of costs reported In the studies cannot be
taken to be representative of cost levels because the companies surveyed
In the studies were not chosen to be representative of vehicle operators

generally in the countries in which the studies were performed. Users who
require to predict cost levels as well as cost differentials are advised
to calibrate the equations to local conditions.
A large number of results have been reported In the previous

chapters. In practical applications only one set of equations can be used
but how are users to decide which equations to adopt? To answer this we
should note first that It makes little sense to mix equations, taking one
from this study and one from that. As we have remarked, firms' policies
are Influenced by the economic and physical environment In which they
operate. Since within each study price relatives and other economic and
physical conditions were approximately constant, each study's equations
make up a coherent picture which Is lost If equations from different
studies are mixed.
This leaves four sets of equatlons from which to choose and at

this point the particular application that the user has In mind has to be
considered. The argument so far In this section leads to the conclusion
that one should use the set of equations obtained In the environment most
closely resembling that In which the equations are to be used. That Is,
that faced with Indian type conditions - relatively cheap labour, long
lived vehicles, and vehicles of relatively old design, one should use the
Indian equations, and so forth. While there is a good deal to recommend
this argument, consideration does have to be given to the reliability and
coverage of the studies' results. Thus It has to be recognised that the
Kenyan and Caribbean studies were small in scale relative to those carried
out In Brazil and India, particularly their user surveys. The Kenyan
study pioneered the way for the three subsequent studies and made a major
contribution to the study of road user costs. But the Information It
provides Is relatively out of date and the base from which Its results are
produced Is relatively small. The large effects for roughness for tire
and particularly maintenance costs predicted by the Kenyan study equations
should be treated with caution and the very substantlal effect for vehicle
age on car and truck maintenance costs Is anomalous and unlikely to be
generally applicable. The results obtalned from the Carlbbean are more up
to date but the conditions that prevail there, on relatively small Islands
with a considerable seasonal element In production and In transportation,
are qulte different from those encountered In the majority of countrles
where major highway investments are being made. Vehicle utilisatlon was
very low on the Caribbean Islands at the time of the study and It Is
likely that the study's maintenance cost equations reflect this. It would
be unwise to use the Caribbean study's maintenance equations to predict
maintenance costs for old vehicles except In applications In which
utilisation Is expected to be low.
These arguments suggest that in many applications one will wish

to use the Brazilian or the Indian studies' results. It Is without doubt
the case that far greater resources have been devoted to the analysis of
the Brazilian data, if for no other reason than that data collection was
completed considerably earlier in Brazil. While the analysis of the
Indian data benefitted from the experience of the Brazillan study, there
Is doubtless more to be gained from further analysis of the Indlan study
data and the numbers that have been reported here are sure to be refined
In the future. However, It Is likely that the Indian study equations
reflect the broad features of the Indian data. One would need to have
serious misgivings over either the quality of the Indlan study's data or
the analysis of the data If one were to wish to use the Brazillan study
equations to predict costs in India, or in conditions like those found In
India, and there do not seem to be grounds for such misgivings.
So the user faces a choice. In many applications It will be most

approprlate to use either the Braziilan or the Indian study's equations.
In many respects they are quite similar and, as we have remarked one
cannot expect to be able to predict costs to a very high degree of
accuracy. The Braziilan equations reflect conditions In a fast
developing, relatively rich country In which vehicles were generally of
relatively modern design and operated on relatively uncongested roads and
In which firms had considerable choice of vehicle specification. The
Indian equations reflect conditions In a populous country with a highly
developed rail transport system, relatively cheap labor, and a limited
range of vehicles of relatively dated design operated on roads that were
often congested and which carried heterogeneous traffic.
As we have seen earlier In this chapter, the conclusions from the

studies concerning the broad effects of highway conditions on vehicle
operating costs are In many respects qulte similar. Used with care their
results can substantially Improve the quality of highway Investment
decisions.
APPENDIX. TABLES OF TOTAL COSTS AND THEIR COMPONENTS
This appendix contains predlctions by user cost study and vehicle

class of costs per thousand kilometers associated with fuel, lubricants,
tires, maintenance, depreciation, Interest, and crew. The price
Information for India was obtalned In personal communications wlth L. R.
Kadayall, the Indian Road User Cost Study Director, and with E.
Viswanathan, a member of the projects staff. The Brazilian price
Information was obtained from staff at Empresa Brasileira de Planejamento
de Transportes - GEIPOT. The Caribbean study price data were obtalned
from staff at the British Transport and Road Research Laboratory, who
recommended using for the Kenyan predictions price data published In
Robinson et al. (1975) which describes an application of user cost
equations to predicting costs on the Yala-Busia highway on the Kenya-
Uganda border in the early 1970s at around the time at which the Kenyan
user cost study was performed.
Calculations using the VA method are given In Tables A9.1 - A9.9.

Calculations using the OL method are given in Tables A9.10 - A9.18. In
all cases prices are Inclusive of taxes.
Cost components are calculated as follows.
Fuel Costs
Fuel consumption in liters per 103 km Is predleted using the

equations In Chapter 5, exploiting the vehicle speed equations of Chapter
4. The adjustments to normal operating conditions given In Table 5.1,
Chapter 5, are applied and costs per 103km are calculated using the fuel
prices (gasollne or diesel as approprlate) given In Table 9.1.
Lubricant Costs
Engine oil consumption In liters per 103 km is predicted using the

equations In Appendix B of Chapter 5. The prices given In Table 9.1 are
applied to obtain engine oil costs per 103 km and these are Increased by 43
percent for Indian vehicles and by 25 percent for other vehicles to allow
for consumption of transmission oils, grease, and other lubricants.
Tire Costs
Number of equivalent new tires per 103 km per vehicle are

predicted using the equations presented In Chapter 6 and priced as In
Table 9.1. The formulae used In the studies Incorporate costs associated
with recapping.
Maintenance Costs
Ratios of parts costs per 103 km to new vehicle price are

predicted using the equations in Chapter 7 and from these predicted labor
hours per 103 km are obtained. These are costed at wage rates as given in
Table 9.1 to give maintenance labor costs per 103 km. Parts costs per
103 km are obtained by multiplying through by new vehicle prices (expressed
In 105 monetary units), as given In Table 9.1. In all cases but one (the
Brazilian car) the vehicle prices used for this exercise are those used to
express the maintenance parts equations In the form (P/VP) in Chapter 7.
Most of the cars observed In the Brazil study road user survey were small
cars (e.g., VW 1300s). To provide a better comparison with the medium
sized cars found In the other studies we have predicted parts costs using
the price of the larger G.M. Chevrolet Opala (see Table 9.1).
Depreciation and Interest Costs
Two methods are used to calculate these costs. In Tables A9.1 -

A9.9 they are calculated by using the vehicle value - age in years
relationships reported in Chapter 8, and the vehicle prices given in Table
9.1 to derive vehicle values and per annum rates of flow of depreciation
costs at a specified point In a vehicle's life. Note that we do not
calculate depreciation costs over a one-year period, but rather the rates
of flow of costs at the ages given, expressed In per annum terms.
Interest costs per year are derived by multiplying vehicle values by 0.12,
assuming a real discount rate of 12 percent per annum. Per annum interest
and depreciation costs are then put onto a per thousand kilometer basis by
dividing by vehicle utilisation, the product of vehicle speed (km/hr) and
hours driven (103 hours per year). This Is the VA (value-age) method
described In Chapter 8. Note that we specify both age In years and age in
kilometers in making these calculations. The values used are reported in
notes accompanying the tables.
Tables A9.10 - A9.18 are calculated using the OL (optimal life)

method described In Chapter 8. Utilisatlon is specified as described
above and the relationship between maintenance costs and vehicle age Is
used to solve for vehicle lives. Terminal maintenance costs (per 103 km)
then provide an estimate of the sum of maintenance, depreciation, and
interest costs per 103 kilometers experienced by vehicles of all ages. A
real discount rate of 12 percent per annum Is used here, as above. There
Is no requirement to specify either vehicle calendar or kilometer ages In
deriving costs using this method.
Crew Costs
Wages paid per year are calculated using wage rates given In
Table 9.1 and the hours worked recorded in the tables In Section 9.2.
Division through by annual kilometerage (103 km) gives crew costs per
103 km.
The Caribbean study maintenance parts equation for trucks cannot

be extrapolated to roughness as low as 2,000 mm/km or as high as 10,000
mm/km. Consequently the maintenance parts predictions for trucks obtained
using the Caribbean study equations refer to roughness of 4,000 mm/km,
6,000 mm/km, and 7,500 mm/km, the latter figure being close to the value
of roughness at which the Caribbean maintenance parts equation starts to
predict decreasing parts costs with increasing roughness. For similar
reasons car maintenance costs are predicted using roughness set at 4,000,
6,000, and 10,000 mm/km. For both cars and trucks the other predicted cost
components obtained using the Caribbean study equations refer to roughness
of 2,000 mm/km, 6,000 mm/km, and 10,000 mm/km. In a few other cases In
the tables In this section It has not been possible to extrapolate to high
roughness levels for particular cost components and predictions have then
been made using a lower roughness level for the cost components that cause
difficulty. Where this happens the roughness values used are recorded In
notes to the tables.
Abbreviations Used In Tables A9.1 - A9.17
1. V : vehicle speed (km/h)

2. F : fuel costs (monetary units/103 km)
3. 0 : lubricant costs (monetary units/103 km)
4. T : tire costs (monetary units/103 km)
5. P : maintenance parts costs (monetary units/103 km)
6. L : maintenance labor costs (monetary units/103 km)
7. D : depreciation costs (monetary units/103 km)
8. I : Interest costs (monetary units/103 km)
9. C : crew costs (monetary units/103 km)
10. TOTAL : Sum of 2 - 9 (monetary units/103 km)
Figures In parentheses thus (23) Indicate that associated cost item

makes up 23 percent of total costs per thousand kilometers. Percentages
may not add to 100 because of rounding.
Figures In brackets thus : f1.36J indicate that ratio of costs on given

route to costs on the base case route Is 1.36. The base case route has
average roughness 2,000 mm/km, average rise + fall 10 m/km, average
degrees of curvature 1000 /km. Where choices are available 2,000 mm/km
routes are taken to be paved, 6,000 mm/km routes and 10,000 mm/km routes
are taken to be unpaved.
Cost Tables Caiculatedby the VA Method

TABLE A9.1
Predicted Vehicle Operating Costs: Cars, India
1978 Rupees per Thousand Kilometers, Including Taxes
Suuace CURVATURE 100I/km CURVATURE: 5D0°w/bn

Ro ~~~iigns __rrlXfX_ 1-- ---- ---
Bf(mm/km) V F ° P D ITOTAL VTAL
{IRI(m/kmn) ) 2 I I
200 58 4 25 42 2 80
s 873 479 29 25 59 42 87 71 86 877
Rlxe {2.8) _ (57) ( 3) ( 3) 79 1 7) 5) (10) 1 8) (10) (1.00]
Rise ___]
pkus 6400 451 30 50 116 63 109 89 107 J 1015 4 448 36 50 116 63 117 96 115 1041
Fail (7.4) (46) ( 3) 1 5) 111) ( 6) (11) I 9) (11) E1.1 . (43) 1 3) ( 5) M11) ( 6) (11) ( 9) (11) [1.19]
l
lOm/km 1un00() 493 38 97 | 228 93 162 133 159 1403 521 46 97 228 93 182 149 179 1495
(12.0) 29.3 135) C 2) ( 7) (16) ( 7) (12) (10) (11) [1.61] 26.1 (35) ( 3) ( 6) (15) 1 6) (12) (10) (12) E1.71]
2000 500 22 25 59 42 94 77 92 911 489 29 25 59 42 100 82 99 925

Rise (. 6) (55) (2) (3) (6) (5) (10) (8) (10) [1.04] (53) (3) 3) (6) 15) (11) ( 9) (11) [1.06]
plus 6w00 361 493 30 50 116 63 132 108 129 1121 530
S 36 50 116 63 144 118 141 1168
Fall (7.4) (44) i( 3) ( 4) (10) 1 6) (12) (10) (12) [1.28] (43) ( 3) ( 4) (10) ( 5) (12) (10) (12) [1.34]
(182.0 21.7 618 38 7 ~228 9 1 1 215-6725

1687 8.684 46 97 228S 3 255 209
| (12.0) j 137) il 2) jl 5) (14) |{ 6) (13) (11) 113) [1.93] 6(37) (2) (5) (12) 1 2554)(11) 214) [2 13]
Notes: (1) Tire coats predicted at roughness of 8000 BI mm/km. 9.5 IRI mn/kin
(2) Hours drivn: 1500 per year, hours operated: 2000 per yer
(3) Vehicle age: 2 years, 100000 km.
(4) Pavemont width: 7 m.
(5) 1 crew
(6) Depreciation and interest costs calculatedusing the VA method
TABLE A9.2
PredictedVehicle Operating Costs: Cars (Medium)Brazil
1976 Cruzelros per Thousand Kilometers, IncludIngTaxes
SurfhAe
Roughtnes__s
CURVATURE: 10/lmi - {CURVATURE __
: $lbnm
_ _ _
81(mm/km) V F O T P L D I C TOTAL V F 0 T P L D I C TOTAL
(IRI(m/km)) __
200 88 670 15 16
is 0 32 42 29 226 1110 769 i0o 16
15 32 61 4 330 1346
Rue (2.8) (60) ( 1) ( t) t 7) ( 3) ( 4) ( 3) (20) E1.001 (57) C 1) ( 1) ( 6) ( 2) t 5) |( 3) |(25) E1.211
pkus 6000 67.2 747 20 29 1 216 55 55 38 298 148 42.9 96 20 29 216 55 6B8 61 470 1925
Fall (7.4)16 (51) ( 1) ( 2) (15) ( 4) ( 4) ( 3) (20) [1.311 (51) ( 1) ( 2) (11) ( 3) C 5) ( 3) (241 [1.731
1
lam/km 10ooo ) 9
s8 25 5s 584 95 70 49 376 2125 1053 25 58 564 95 93 65 497 2470
(12.0) .2(41) ( 1) 3) (2T) 4) ( 3) 2) . ( 43)

418)
311911
( 1) C 2) (24) ( 4) ( 4) ( 3) (20) [2.23]
2000 674 15 16 s0 32 44 31 1 234 1126 778 15 16 80 32 62 44 333 1380
Rise (2.8 85.7) (60) " ( 1)

I 7) ( 3) ( 4) ( 3) (21) (1.011 60 (57) ( 1) 1) 6) ( 2) C 5) ( 3) (24) [1.23]
O plws 600D 754 20 29 216 55 56 40 | 301 1471 995 20 29 216 55 87 61 467 1930
Fall (12.0) (51) ( 1) 2) |(15) ( 4) ( 4) ( 3) (20) [1.331 42.8 (52) C 1) ( 2) (11) ( 3) ( 5) ( 3) (24) [1.741
50m/km 104am(,)
(12.0)
53 0
~~ ~
5OM/km
874
(41)
~
j 25
(1)
~
(3)
58 I
1(27)
~
554
~
95
(4) (3)
~
71 49
(2)
~
377
(18)
~
2133
~
[1.921
1402
----
l06
(43)
25
(1)
5s
(2)(24)
584
____
96 92
(14) (3)
65 497
(20)
2476
[2.233
Notes: (1) Tire costs predicted st roughnes of 6000 Bl (mm/km). 9.5 IRI m/km).
(2) Hours driven: 1500 per year, hours operated: 2000 per yer
(3) Vehicle age: 2 years. 100000 km.
(4) 1 crew
(5) 2000 mm/km roughnes is paved. 600o and 10000 mm/km is unpaved
(6) Gross Vehicle Weight: 1.4 tonnes; Attitude: 0.
For other Brazilian model variables, see default values in Appendix A.4.
(7) Depreciation and interest costs caiculated using the VA method
TABLE A9.3
PredictedVehicle Operating Costs: Cars, Caribbean
1978 Eastern Caribbean Dollars per Thousand Kilometers, IncludingTaxes
Surfaceo CURVATURE : 1000 /km CURVATURE :5000'11vn

Boumhnekm L1D -T0_AL
Roumhnems V F 0 T 0 IO T OA T P I C TOTAL
_RI(mkr) _I
000(
2ls 5844 4 32 103 46 75 8 674 451 40 4 32 1103 4692 3 87 70 37
Fall (7.4) C9) ( 1) ( 7) (23) (10) (18) (17) (15) (1.33] ( 8) C 1) 77) (21) C 9) (19) (19) (16) (1.45]
IOM/km
10000 41 4 56 209 94 84 82 12 642 39 4 56 209 94 101 100 87 680
(12.0) (5.
6) C 1) ( 9) (33) (15) (13) (13) (11) (1.89] 462 6) C 1) C 8) (30) (14) (15) (14) (13) (2.04]
2.oOo4) 598 53 4 7 50 23178 77 67 358 s

50. 4 7 50 23 93 92 so 398
IRise (2.8) - (14) ( 1) ( 2) (14) (6) (22) (21) (19) (1.06] (13) 2) 1(13) C 6)
( 1) I(2 (23) (23) (20) 1[11.18)
~plus
C 6000 52 41 32 1103 46 1(83 82 71 473 49 4 32 103 46 100 s8 85 517
~Fall
- (7.4) 54 1) 1) )
7~ 2 (10) (8) (17) (15) (1 40] 468 9 C 1) C 6) (20) C 9) l(19) I(19) (16) (1.53]
50rn/km 110000) 51 4 56 29 94 88 87 76 665 19 4 56 209 94 18 16 92 718

(12.0) 529 ( 8)(1 (14 (13) (13) C1 [1.98] . j7) 1 (8) (29) (13) (5 (1)(13) (2.12]
Notes: (1) Hours driven: 350 per year, hours operated: 500 per year
(2) Vehicleage: 2 years, 40000 km.
(3) 1 crew
(4) Predictions of maintenancepartsand laborcostsat 4000, 6000 and 10000 mm/km roughness
(5) Depeciationand interest costscalculated usingthe VA method
TABLE A9.4
Predicted Vehicle Operating Costs: Buses, India
1978 Rupees per Thousand Kilometers, IncludingTaxes
Surfce CURVATURE 100D/km | CURVATURE : 5lO/kan

Roughnes --- r -- - - -- -- - --- - --
E9(mm/km) V F P L D I |C TOTAL V |F ! T P L D I C TOTAL
(IPd(mtklm))
2000 384 38 1 1951 123 42 91 146 136 1155 381 38 215 138 44 97 156 145 1214
Rbse (12.8) (34) ( 3) (16) (11) 1 4) 8) (13) (12) [1.W] 3(32) C 3) 1(17)(11) (4) 1 8) (13) (12) [1.06]
plus 6000
G 392 42 215 152 55 110 177 164 1307 396 42 255 170 58 118 191 177 1407
42.6 39.5
Fall (7.4) (30) ( 3) (16) (12) ( 4) C 8) (14) (13) [1.131 (28) ( 3) (17) (12) ( 4) ( 8) (14) (13) [1.22]
lOin/km 130000 33.8 424 46 254 188 72 138 223 207 1552 441 46 294 210 76 152 245 228 ISM
30.7I
(12.0) (28) ( 3) (16) (12) C 5) ( 9) (14) (13) [1.341 (26) 3) 1(17) (13) ( 5) 9) (15) (14) [1.46]
2000 40.8 | 452 43 254 161 48 115 184 172 1429 459 43 294 181 so 124 200 186 1537
(2.8) (32) C 3) (17) (11) j( 3) (8) (13) (12) (1.24] 1(30) (3) (18) (12) (3) |8) (13) (12) [1.33]
plus 6800 492 47 293 199 62 147 236| 219 1695 513 47 352 223 66 163 261 243 1868
Fall (7.4) 19 29) 3) (17) (12) 4) 9) 1(14) (13) [1.47 8.8 (28) 3) 18) (12) 4) 9) (14) (13) [1.62]
SOn/kin |10000 23.1 584 51 | 353 |246 82 203 326 303 2148 | 636 51 430 275 86 234 376 350 2438
( {12.0) 1(27) I(2Z) 116)i 6(12)( 4) 1(10) (15) (14)1 [1.861 (26) 1(2) (17) 111) ( 4) (10) 111) 114) t2.11]
(2) Vehicleage: 5 years, 500000 knm.
(3) 2 crew
(4) Gross vehicle weight: 10 tonnes; Power to weight: 8.4 kw/tonne; Road width: 7m.
(5) Depreciation and interest costs calculated using the VA method
TABLEA9.5
PredictedVehicleOperatingCosts: Buses,BrazilI
1976 Cruzeirosper ThousandKilometers,IncludingTaxes
0
CURVATURE :100,/km CUJRVATURE: 500 11kn
Surface -- ---
Roughness ' - - - I. 1 -1--

T P L D I C TOTAL VIF 0 T P L Df I C TOTAL
BI(mmlkm) V F 0
(IRI(m/km))
123 86 312 7331 3 0 62 10 12 1414 412 11

10
I2(1)(2.8) 413 37 260 362 140 11723154.6 37 3 36 40 12
Rise __ _
(2.8)
_ _
~ __ _
(24)
--
( 2) (16) (21) (8) ( 7) ( 5) (18)i(1[00] (20) (2)1 4--
(16) (19)
-
C7)
--
(9)
.--v-- (6) (22) t[1.09]
376 416 40 39 469 23 236 166 598 2513

plus I6000 5. 400 40 302 469 239 163 114 (411 [2138
(17) (2) (14) (19) (10) (9) (7) (24) [1.43]
Foil (7'.4) (19) ( 2) (14) (22) (11) (68) ( 5) (19) (122]
Il0m1km ]67loom 223.6 4 -T(49 67
47
40
_
203516
--
120o
- ----
3.
--
444 43
----
396 607
_
407 255 179 647 2978
(15) ( 8) C 5) (19) (11.53] (15) (1) (3 2)(4 ) 6 2)1-0
{12.0) (16) ( 2) (13) (23)
Rise
(1) 2) 1)6_ (9) (6) (22) [1.40]
204 144 517 2674 579 40 606 469 239 261 163 660 3097
plus 600OD 571 40 490 469 239
Fall (74) ~~~3.534.1 I (1 53] (19) C1) (20) (15) (8) (9) (6) (22) [1.73]
Fall (7.4) ~ (21) C1) (18) (I8 ) (8) (5) (19)
50m/km - t ~f 3245 599 43 792 607 407 276 194 701 3619
I I I 565 43 606 607 407 235 1165 597
'(11) 8) 5) (19) [2.06]
(1"j8) (1) (19) [(19) 10) 7 5 (8 [1.86] ____(17)~ 1) j(22) '(17')
(12.0)
(3) Tire size: 10.00 x 20
(4) 1. 5 crew
(5) Gross vehicle weight: 11 tonnes; Attitude: 0.
For other Brazilian mnodelvariables, see default values in Appendix A.4.
(6) Depreciation and interest costs c-alculated using the VA method
TABLE A9.6
PredictedVehicle OperatingCosts: Medium Trucks) India
1978 Rupees per ThousandKilometers, IncludingTaxes
Surface CURVATURE 1009/kmn CURVATURE : 5tO°/km

8R(u9mmnk) V 1 FT F 0 T P L D I C TOTAL
(IRI(m/km)) i i - _
2000 4Y.3 4161 32 259 78 36 153 238 197 1409 416 32 262 78 36 167 260 216 1487
RiB (2.8) (30) 2) (18) 1( 6) ( 3) (11) (17) (14) [1.00. (26) ( 2) |(18) ( 5) 2) (t1) (16) (15) (1.06]
plus PIUS 6WO
6000 ~~39.39 7 | 432 34 307 138 I 58 182 284 235 1670 35 442 34 331
31 138
18 58
562.712t2 316 26 17te
Fall (7.4) (26) 22) (18) | 8) ( 4) 61 16
10Fai 1I0 2 4I 3 4 (11) (17) (14) [1.116 (25) ( 2) (16) ( 8) (3) (11) (18) (15) E1.26
6 41 8 )(1 (16 (1)(.6
iowo 1 470 36 331 1 244 9a3 225 351 291 2041 498 36 401 244 93 257 401 332 2Z26
{12.0) 3 (23) 3) (16) |12) J( 5) (11) (17) (14) (1.45] 26.1 (22) ( 2) (17) (11) ( 4) (11) (18) (16) (1.61]
200 366 499 56 354 78 36 197 306 255 1783 515 56 401 78 36 222 346 286 1940
(2.8) (2)8_ C 3) (19) (4) 2) (11)
Rim29.0 (18) (14) (1.27]
2. I (27) ( 3) (20) ( 4) ( 2) (12) (18) (15) (1.38]
@ Rlus
Pu 6000 2 550 | 58 401 138 58 249 3S9 3Z2 2165 566 56 495 138 56 2S9 451 373 2450
b Fail (7.4) |(26) C 3) (18) C 6) ( 3) (12) (18) (15) [1.54] (24) ( 2) (19) ( 6) ( 2) (12) (19 ) t1.74]
SOm/km 10000
1 21 4 651 ;, 602 4Sl95 2 9
93 338 527 436 2644 738 60 612 244 93 41S 648 535 3346
(I12.0) 2 ,(23) 2) (17) ( 9) 3) 1(12) (19) (15) t2.02] 1.4 (22) ( 2) (18) j 7) ( 3) (13) (20) (18) [2.37]
_ _ _ __ _ __
_ _ I i w L
Notes: (1) Hours driven: 1500 per year. hours operated: 2000 per year
(2) Vehicle age: 3 Yars. 2000D0 km.
(3) 2 crew
(5) Gross vehicle weight: 13 tonnes; Pavement width: 7m; Power to weight: 6.5 kw/tonne.
TABLE A9.7
Predicted Vehicle Operating Costs: Medium Trucks, Brazil
1976 Cruzelros per Thousand Kilometers, Including Taxes
Surface I CURVATURE: 10°/kin CURVATURE 5000/lwn

RoughnesuI
8(m/kan)
{IRI (m/km ) }
V F 0 T P L D I C TOTAL V |F 0 T
K~
P - D r, C 1QTAL
I - .. - - - __ _ __ _ _ __ _ _
2000 644 Sal 40 280 194 104 129 85 466 18S 48.8 10 40 302 194 101 1 1CS 601 207
(2.8) (29) ( 2) (15) (11) ( 6) ( 7) ( 5) (25) ( 41.00] (25) ( 2) (15) (10) ( 5) C 6) ( 5) (30) [1.11]
Rise - - __ _ _ _._-
plus 600D 48 57
537 47 3I2 544 178 171 t11 616 2616 34 5157 47 349 544 178 239 155 t6S 296
Fail ! (7.4) (21) ( 2) (12) (22) ( 7) ( 7) ( 4) (25) (1.37] (20) ( 2) (12) (19) ( 6) ( 8) ( 5) (29) (1.61]
lOm/km_ __
10000 370 5868 56 349 894 230 225 147 811 W
00 30 S 6 56 396 694 230 26S 176 971 3618
(12.0) (18) ( 2) (11) (27) ( 7) ( 7) ( 4) (25) [1.80]. (17) t 2) (11) (25) ( 6) ( 7) C 5) (27) [1.98]
C' __ I_ .__ _
1 100
20s 42.9 8US 40 420 194 104 194 127 69U 26 6Y65
S35 40 490 194 104 222 145 600 2681
(2.8) (32) t 2) (16) t 7) 1 4) C 7) ( 5) (27) [1.42] (30) ( 1) (17) ( 7) ( 4) ( 8) ( 5) (26) 11.55]
Rise I - - - . - __
____ _
Plus sa0 36.7 654 47 490 544 178 227 148 817 3305 300 8 47 606 544 178 277 181 1000 3711
Fail (7.4) ( 1)
1(26)(15) (17) C 5) ( 7) ( 5) (25) (1.811 (24) ( 1) (16) (15) l 5) ( 7) ( 5) (27) [2.03]
50m/km - _ _ - _ _ __ ___ __ __
1000 1 891 S6 611 w 23 269 17S gs8 40llS 12
9t4 S6 | S 894 230 303 ISO 10X14 44eo
1 10000 ~31.0 27.4 6 ~ 64 20 30 18IS 4
|(12.0) . (22) ( 1) (15) (22) ( 6) ( 7) ( 4) (24) 12.24] (20) ( 1) (18) (20) (5) ( 7) ( 4) (24) [2.45]
Notes: (1) Hours driven: 1500 per year, hoursoperated: 2000 per year
(2) Vehicle age: 3 yer, 200000 km.
(3) Number of tis: 6
(4) 2000 mm/km roughness is paved, 6000 and 10000 mm/km roughness is unpaved.
(5) Gross vehicle weight: 14 tonnes; Altitude: 0.
For other Brazilian model variables, se default values in Appendix A.4.
TABLE A9.8
Vehicle Operating Costs: Medium Trucks, Caribbean
1978 Eastern Caribbean Dollars per Thousand Kilometers, IncludingTaxes
ISurface
Roughness
f V
__
F 0
CURVATURE:
T P L
1000 /km
DII C TOTAL V F 10
CURVATURE:
T P L
5000 /km
D I C TOTAL
(IRI(m/km)) ____
20W 51. 87 13 59 67 30 282 191 78 807 48 84 13 59 67 30 32 2 a 6

Rise (2.8) (11) C2) ( 7) (8) ( 4) (35) (24) (10) (1.00] C 9) ( 1) ( 7) ( 8) ( 3) (37 (25) (10) [1.10]
Rlus 6o 4. 85 13 90 119 54 308 208 85 9620. 83 13 so 49 54 30 23 S 9
Fall (7.4) C9) C1) ( 9) (12) C 6) (32) (22) C 9) [1.19] C 8) C 1) ( 9) C 5) C 5) (36)1(25) (10) [1.23]
tOm/km I __ - _ __ __
i0000(3) i43.1 83 13 119 131 59 338 228 93 1064 363 83 13 119 131 59 401 271 110 1187
(12.0) C8) C1) (11) (12) C 6) (32) (21) C 9) (1.32] ( ) CI1) I(10) C11) C 5) (34)] (23) c
i) [1.47']
3
CA) 00(
_9= ) 445 173 13 59 67 30 327 221 so 980 172.71 59 67 301I366 2i1o i9
Rise
(2.8) (18) I) C6) C 7) C3) (33) (23) ( 9) [1.21] ''(16)
12
j(1)
1
(5)
0
(6)
19
t 3)
5
1(35)]1 (24)
3124
(10)
19
[1.36]
19
Plus 6000 172 13 90 119 5436 245 99 1154 1 3 I 1 I 3 43 9 1
Fall (7.4) (15) (1) C8) (10) C5) (31) 1(21) (9) [1.43] (13) C1) C7) 1)4)(34)1(23)
(9) [1.60]
1000(3 17 3 119 11 59 406 273 III 11283 22 175 13 119 131 59 49 337 1717
________ j __________ 0 (13) j(1) !(9) j(lO)j() (32) j(21) (9) [1.59] 9. (12) (1) (8) (9) 4 J
(23) (9) [1.82]
Notes: (1) hours driven: 350 per Year. hours operated: 500 per year
(2) Vehicle age: 3 years. 45000 km.
(3) Maintenance parts and labor coats predicted at 4000, 6000. 7500 mm/km roughness.
(4) All roughness settings for paved road.
(5) 2 Crew
(6) Gross vehicle weight: 12 tonnes; Power to weight 9.3 Bhp/tonne
TABLE A9.9
Vehicle Operating Costs: Articulated Trucks, Brazil
1976 Cruzelros per Thousand Kilometers, Including Taxes
Surface ! CURVATURE 1009/e CURVATURE:

0
500 /mbn
.
iRoughness f _ -
Bl(mm/km) V F 0 T P L D i C TOTAL V F 0 T P L D I C TOTAL

(IRI(m/km))____-
Rise 2000
(PI^uIg 12.8)
|
.3 8
(2fi) t
40
1)
517
(14)
746
(20)
421
t12)
225
( 6) ( 5)
175 578
(t6)
3670
11.01 ! 42.8
4
S35
24)
40
( 1)
542
(13)
746
(18)
421
(10)
328
( 8)
255
( 6)
841
(20)
4168
[1.14]
56 354 120t1505 47 592 1288 560 523 407 1343 5961

Fallf lomfkm6000~ 396 t5 47
7 561. 1281
566 6 5 16 50h 26.8
n/km 0--21)( 1) (11) (25) (11) ( 7) ( 5) (l18) [1.38] 1 (20) ( 1) (10) (22) ( 9) ( 9) ( 7) (23) [1.62]
Rise 200 34.3 1844 40 641 746 421 48 ! 11050 5468 29.6 1854 40 690 7 421 4,3.| 369 1216 5aos
o Plus (2.8) (34) 1) (12) (14) (8) ( 7) 6) (19) [1.49] (32) t 1) (12) !(13) 7) (8) (6) (21) [1.58]
Fall iII
omlkan 6 097
5 (7.4)
28,3
3 ( 1)
47 715
(11)
1288
19)
560 49S
J 387 1271
19)
6660E
[1.81] .
1914
(27)
47
( 1)
764 1288 560 606
(11) i(18) |( ( 8)(
473
7)
1558
(22)
7210
(1.96
Notes: (1) Hours driven: 2500 per year. hours operated: 2500 per year
(3) 1.5 Crew at 24 Cruzeiros per hour.
(4) Paved road operation at 2000 B1 mm/km, 2.8 IRI m/km. unpaved road operation at 6000 BI mm/km, 7.4 IRI m/km.
(5) Maintenance parts and labor costs are derived by factoring the tractor costs by 1.33.
(6) Number of tires: 18; Tire size: 11.00 x 22
(7) Gross vehicle weight: 40 tonnes; Altitude: 0.
Other default values for the Brazilian model are given in Appendix A.4.
(8)Depreciation and interest costs calculated using the VA method
Cost Tables Calculated by the OL Method
In these tables the column headed P+L+D+I gives the sum of

maintenance parts and labour costs and depreciationand Interestcosts.
Since these costs are constant as vehicles age, under the assumptions
underlying the OL method, no vehicle age Is specified In producing these
tables.
TABLE A9.10
PredIcteti Vehicle Operating Costs: Cars (Medium), Brazil
t Surace : 1000 7gwn

CtURVATURE CtRVATURE : 500klun
Roughness
81 (mmlkm) V F 1 0. P+L+1 | C TOTAL| V 1 F O t I P+LD+l C TOTAL
i IRI(mflwn,) __ __ _ _ _ _4 t__ _ _ _ _
2000 8 670 15 16 220 226 1147 76 15 16 227 330 1357
I t I; H ~~~~(2.8)
- 158) (1) . 11) (19) } 120) ; 1. OtD] f ( 57)14 11) 11) (17) (24) [ 1. 18
i Rre
plus r 6000 747 20 29 434 298 |S28 9m 20 29 445 470 1950
!ta|" I 67.2 i I 42.9 1
IOM/km (7.4) (49) (1) (2) (28) (20) (1.338 (61) (t) (1) (23) (24) (1.70]
I ~__ 10000
_ __
ts36 25 I 877
376| 2204 ,_
i03 I_ _ .
25 5 84 497 2517
5I 87 1
5384 2 49 21
C., 53.2 I I I 40.2i
4% (12.0) 1 13. (3)
(3¢ (40) (17) (1.92] (42)! (1) (2) (35) (20) [2.19]
i 2000 1685.715 16 2201 234 1I159 778 15 16 227 333 law

857 1 ~~~~~~~~~~60.0!
I {2.8) |) (58) (1) (19) (20) [1.01] j (57) ' (1) (1) (17) (24) [1.19]
Su; 6a 66.5 754 20 29 435 301! 1539 4. 529 445 467 1966
50m/km (7.4) (49) (1) (2) (28) (20) [1.34] (51) (1) (1) (23) (24) 1 .71]
t. _ _ .t1I l
100W 874 25 58 877 377 1 2211 10160 25 5e 864 497 2524

53.0O| j| i4.2i
(12.0) (40)1 (1) (3) j (40) (17) [1.8193 4 (42) (1) (2) (35) | (20)1 [2.20]
Notes wee Table9.4
OreWftlon and interest coatscalculted using the OL methcd

TABLE A9.11
PredictedVehicle Operating Costs: Cars (Medlituu),
Brazil
I Surtace ~~~~~CURVATURE
00/ CUJRVATURE
:5W0Ihvn
Roughness ~ J F O .++
EN(Mmlkm) I 0 T P+L+DI.1 c TOTAL V F 0 PLD TOTAL
2000 431 41 71 309 64~ 427 40 417 319 75 445

62.7 I53.1
[2.8) (10)1 (1) (2) (72' (15)1 (1.00] (9) i(1) (2) (72) (17) ( 1.04]
Rise plus 6=0 42 4 132 j 432 ST 57 '401 4 I32 442 go 598

fall 59.3 49.7
bin/km {7.4) 7) (1)1 (6) (75) (12)1 (1.35] 7) () () (74) (13) [1.40]
10000 41 4 56~ 612 72 785 39 4 56 623 87 O0M

55.8 146.21
I (12.0) C5) (1) (7) (718) ) [.3 ( 5) I(0) (7) (7) (11) E[1.89]
53 7j 312 671 443 50 4 7 323 s0 464.

I ~~~~~59.8 (7)50.2
(2.8) (12) (1)1 (2) (15)1 [1.04] (I11) (1) I(2) (70) (1 7) [1. 09]
fall 56.4 Ii46.8

50Cm/km (7.4) (9) (1)1 (73) 1 (12) [ 1.39] (8) (1) (5) (72) (14) [ 1.44]
10000 51 4156: 615 749 4 56 627 92 m2

I()()(12.0) (6) (1)1 (7) (77) (9) [1.89] ls () 7 (76) (11) [ 1.94]
NoWe am Tabe .95
Depciamon and intre.t ODAt calculated using the 01 method

TABLE A9.12
Predicted Vehicle Operating Costs: Buses, India
0
Surface LCURVATURE: IODO km CURVATURIE 50,00 1km
IRoughness
II
St(mm/km) i V F 0 T P+L+D+I, C 'TOTAL V F 0 T C+++ OA
IRI(m/km) PLO ~ OA
2000 384 38 196 406 136 1159 381 38 215 436 145 1215
51.448.3I
(2.81 (33) (3) (I17) (35) (12) 1(1.00] (31) (3) (18) (36) (12) (1.05]
Riset
plus
Fall
~~~6000
~~~42.6
39
2
2
1
2539.5
I9 486 164 1299 396 42 255 524 177 1384
Fafmlkm (7.4)1 (30) (3) (17)1 (37) (13)1 11.12] (28) (3) (18) (38) (13) (1.20] -
10 ~~~~~~~~
46 20 53441 ~~424
46 294 643 228 i1652
33.8 3.
{12.0) (28)1 (3) (71 (39) I(14) (1.31] (27) (3) (18) (39) (14)1 (1.43]
2000 452 43 1 2154I497 172 1418 45 3 294 537 186 1519
(2.18) 32) (3) (18) (35) (12) (1.22) (30) (3) ( 18) (35) (12) (1.31]
plus 6000 492 I47 293 609 219 i1660 513 47 352 666 243 1820
Fall 31.9' 28.8 (8~(7
50 rn/km (7.4) (30)' (3) (18) (3) (13) (1.43] (28)1 (3) 1) (37) (13) [157
10000 584' 51 353 777 303 2068 8680

N 350 2335
(12.01 (28)1 (2) (17) (38) (15) (1. 78]j j(27)' (2) I(81 (37) (15) L2.01)
Notes See Table S. 6

DWeprcatmonand interest costs calculated using the 01 method.
TABLE A9.13
Predicted Vehicle Operating Costs: Buses, Brazil
Surface CURVATURE 100°/kmn CURVATURE500°/km

Roughness - . , I_
Bi (mm/kmn) V F 0 | T P+L+D+l C TOTAL V F 0 T P+L*D+I C TOTAL
IRI{m/kmn)
2000 413 37 280 846 312 1888 381 37 302 875 412 2007
72.1 54.6
(2.8) (22) (2) (15) (45) (17) t1.00] (19) (2) (15) (44) (21) [1.06]
Rise
plus 6000 400 40 302 1081 411 2234 416 40 M9 1138 SW 2541
Fadl 54.7 37.6
10 m/km (7.4) (18) (2) (14) (48) (18) [1.18] (16) (2) (14) (45) (24) [1.35]
10000 422 43 349 13S6 516 2726 444 43 396 1434 647 2964
43.6 34.8
(12.0) (15) (2) (13) (51) (19) [1.44] (15) (1) (13) (48) (22) [1.57]
2000 557 37 420 8Q5 444 2343 560 37 490 908 515 2510
50.6 43.7
(2.8) (24) (2) (18) (38) (19) E1.24] (22) (1) (20) (36) (21) [1.33]
Rise
plus 6000 571 40 490 1112 517 2730 579 40 Ms 158 660 3043
Fall 43.5 34.1
50 m/km 17.4) (21) (1) (18) (41) (19) [1.45] (19) (1) (20) (38) (22) [1.61]
-I~~~6-6 9 _F4
10000 SW 43 1419 597 3250 599 43 792 1451 701 3586
37.7 32.1
(12.01 (18) (1) (19) (44) (18) (1.72] (17) (1) (22) (40) (20) [1.90]
Notes See Table9.7

Dsprcciaion and interest costs calculated uing the 0L method.
TABLE A9.14
Predicted Vehicle Operating Costs: MediumnTrucks, India
Surfce CURVATURE: 100°/kmn CURVATURE500S/km

Roughness _ - - _
EN (mm/km) V F 0 T P+L+04i C TOTAL V F 0 T P+L+D.I C TOTAL
IRI (m/km }
200W 416 32 268 446 S197 1352 416 32 282 472 216 1418
47.3 43.3
(2.8) (31) (2) (19) (33) (15) (1.00] (29) (2) (20) (33) (15) (1.05]
Rise
plus 6000 432 34 307 596 235 1604 442 34 331 628 316 1752
Fall 38.7 36.7
10 m/km (7.4) (27) (2) (19) (37) (15) [1.1]9 (25) (2) (19) (36) (18) (1.30]
W 10000 470 36 331 825 291 1953 498 36 401 874 332 2141
cn 32.1 28.1
(12.0) (24) (2) (17) (42) (15) [1.441 (23) (2) (19) (41) (16) [1.68]
20W0
o 3 499 56 354 526 255 imO 515 56 401 570 286 1828
36.6 32.6
(2.8) (30) (3) (21) (31) (15) [1.26] (28) (31 (22) (31) (16) (1.36]
Rism
plus 6CC0 550 56 401 708 322 2040 so. 56 486 7eo 373 2294
Fall 29.0 25.0
50 m/km (7.4) (27) (3) (20) (35) (16) [1.51] (26) (3) (22) (34) (16) [1.70]
100W0 651 60 495 1006 436 2646 781 s0 612 1141 536 3087
(12.0) _ (25) (2) (19) (36) (16) l1.96] (24) (2) (20) (37) (17) [2.26]
Nse
- :S s rTble 9.6
D.peMmm and kied cms cal=ulted umfM the OL mwthod.
TABLE A9.15
Predicted Vehicle Operating Costs: Medium Trucks, Brazil
Surface CURVATURE : 100O/kn CURVATURE 500°/km

Roughness
Ru(mm/km) V F a T P+L*D+l C TOTAL V F 0 1 P+L+DlI C TOTAL
IRI(m/km) . _ _
2000 531 40 280 577 466 1894 510 40 30Z 60 601 2065
64.6 49.9
(2.8) (28) t2) (15) (30) (25) t1.00] (25) (2) (15) (29) (29) (1.09]
Rise
plus 6000 537 47 302 1087 616 2589 575 47 349 1125 859 2955
Fall 48.7 34.9
10 m/km (7.4) (21) (2) (12) (42) (24) [1.37] (19) (2) (12) (38) (29) [1.56]
(A) 10000 5s8 56 349 1510 811 3314 626 56 196 1533 971 3582
oh 37.0 30.9
(12.0) (18) (2) (11) (46) (24) E1.75] (17) (2) (11) (43) (27) [1.89]
2000 n28 40 420 622 699 2609 836 40 490 645 850 2861
42.9 37.5
(2.8) (32) (2) (16) (24) (27) [1.38] (29) (1) (17) (23) (30) [1.51]
Rise
plus 6000 654 47 490 1118 817 3326 878 47 6W6 1149 1000 3680
Fall 36.7 30.0
50 m/km (7.4) (26) (1) (15) (34) (25) [1.76] (24) (1) (16) (31) (27) [1.94]
l10000O 89 56 606 1533 968 4054 912 56 792 1552 1094 4406
31.0 27.4
| (12.0) (22) (1) (15) (38) (24) [2.14] (21) (1) (18) (35) (25) t2.33]
NoW See Table9.9.

DOepeciatn and interest costs calculatedusng the 01. method.
TABLEA9.16
Predicted Vohicle Operating Costs: Medium Trucks. Caribbean
0
Surface CURVATURE : 100/krn CURVATURE 500 /km
Roughness - - - _
EU (mmlkmn) V F 0 T P+L*D+I C TOTAL V F 0 T P+L+O+i C TOTAL
IRI(rm/kmn) t - ___-
2000 87 13 59 577 78 814 84 13 59 606 as 850

51.6 44.8
(2.8) (11) (1) (7) (71) (t10) 1.00] (10) (2) (7) (71) (10) [1.04]
Rise
plus 6000 85 13 90 734 85 1007 83 13 so 764 99 1049
Fall 47.3 40.5
10 mr/km (7.4) () (9) (73) (8) [1.24] (8) (1) (9) (73) (9) [1.29]
10080 _ 83 13 119 779 93 1087 83 13 119 817 110 1142

(112.0) 43.1 36.3
(8) (1) (11) (72) (9) [1.34] (7) (1) (10) (72) (10) [1.40]
2000 173 13 59 606 90 941 172 13 59 648 105 988

44.5 37.7
(2.8) (18) (1) (6) (64) (10) (1.16) (17) (1) (6) (65) (11) [1.23]
Rise
plus 6000 172 13 90 765 99 1138 172 13 90 812 119 1206
FaIl 40.3 33.5
50 r/km (7.4) (15) (1) (8) (67) (9) [l.401 (14) (1) (7) (67) (10) t1.48]
10000 172 13 119 819 111 1234 175 13 119 882 137 1326
36.0 29.2
(12.0) (14) (1) (10) (66) (9) [1.52] (13) (1) (9) (67) (10) [1.63]
Notes S"eetable 9.10.

DWpraoiaton and interest cost, calulaed usng the 0X method.
TABLEA9.17
PrsdictedVehicleoperatingCosts: ArticulatedTrucks.Brazil
Sajrfece ~~~CURVATURE:
IWO/Im CURVATURE500J/W
Roughness I
Si (mm/kmn) V F IT V
-- D1 TOA F 0 T P'+L.D44 C TOTAL
IRI(m /Iun)__ _I__ _ _ ___ _ _ _ _ _
- ~~~o 4 Sr 14 78134'95 40 1542 166 841 424
Rim ~~~(2.8) 1(25): 1 1) () (23) 42.844 (1) (19) (1. 10]
FallI
1Orn/km 6000 11075;47 15624 0 271201 47 an 274 1343 5w9
39.61 I I8
CA) '-*
I74)(21)
1
(1 01 (I)(311E1
-r~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1 3 (20 1) 10l(6
2000 1644 40 641 196 150 5537 1 1654 40 1Go 2010 1216 5610
34.3 I29.61
Rimse (2.8) (33) (1) (12) (35) i(19) [ 1 410] (32) (1) (112) (9) (21) [ 1.471
S m/km 1 6000 ilea? 477?15: 18~21 66511 47 76 2m0 m55m75
(7.4) (28)(iiil ) (ta (19) ( 1.69] Y(2) ()

M31 (11) (40) (22) (1El.80]
Notes :See Table 9.1II.
Deprediation an neetcstcalculated using the OL method.
ANNEX
Accidents
For a variety of reasons, a decision was taken early In the design

of all four studies - Kenya, the Caribbean, India, and Brazil - to devote
only limited attention to the study of accident costs, not least because
the focus of these studies was rural low volume highways on which traffic
interactions are relatively Infrequent. Accident costs, though large in
aggregate - as much as 1 percent of GDP In some developing countries
(Jacobs & Sayer 1983) - are a small component of the transport costs
incurred by firms, especially those firms that operate on non-urban, low
volume routes. The various factors that affect accident rates and severity
are difficult to disentangle and It was felt that it would be unwise to
spread the resources available to the four studies too thinly especially as
large scale research on causes of accidents were already underway,
worldwide. However, some small efforts were made in the Indian study and
to a lesser degree in Brazil. In this appendix, we review the results that
were obtalned together with other evidence concerning road accidents in
developing countries.
The effects of highway Improvements on accident rates and on

accident severity are complex and not yet fully understood, and there Is
much debate over the appropriate methodology for costing accidents and
valuing accident risk reduction. Jones-Lee (1976) provides a review. We
present results concerning the relationships between accident rates and
highway characteristics, drawing on the Indian Road User Cost Study (CRRI
1982), on work reported by the U.K. Transport and Road Research Laboratory
(Macbean 1982; Jacobs and Sayer 1983) and on a literature survey carried
out by John McLean of the Australian Road Research Board for the World Bank
(McLean 1984). The Indian Road User Cost Study report gives estimates of
accident costs and these figures and some results from the Brazilian study
are reproduced here. Accident costs were not estimated In the studies
carried out In Kenya and the Caribbean and accident cost estimates are not
reported for these countries. It is not possible to give generally
applicable figures with which to cost accidents, and in assessing
particular highway Investment projects planners will need to obtain data
with which to cost accidents that are relevant to the environment being
studled.
There is very little empirical evidence to support relatlonships

between accident rates or accident severity and highway characteristics
that are relevant to non-urban travel In developing countries. Virtually
all the available evidence relates to accident rates and little attention
has been paid to accident severity. The results presented below suggest
that accident rates may be lower on highways with higher geometric design
standards. Care needs to be taken In Interpreting these results for, if
vehicle speeds are higher on highways with higher geometric design
357
358 ACCIDENTS
standards, then the fewer accidents that do occur may be more severe and
more costly.
Accurate prediction of accident rates requires detalled knowledge

of highway conditions and in particular of the configuration of bends,
gradients, Junctions, and so forth. The equatlons reported below express
accident rates as functions of broad measures of average highway conditions
- average rise + fall, average degrees of curvature and similar measures -
In line with the vehicle speed equations given earlier Chapter 4. The
equatlons give at best a broad Indication of accident rates on highways of
different general types and they cannot be expected to give a good
Indication of the benefits to Isolated highway Improvements. As will be
seen the relationships avaliable give somewhat different predictions of the
effects of gradient and curvature on accident rates and If the equations
given here are used, they should be used with caution.
We start by considering the Indian study which reports two

Investigations Into accident rates, one obtained by comparing variations In
accident rates with variations In highway characteristics along the length
of a single highway, the other obtained by comparing accident rate
variations across routes with across route variation In highway
characteristics. In the first Investigation accident rates at 114 one-
kilometer long sections of the 157 kilometer long Bombay-Pune highway were
obtained, each observation being an average of from one to three years data
derived from pollce records. This highway passes through both plain and
hilly terrain and for each one kilometer long section average rise + fall,
average degrees of curvature and number of Junctions per kilometer were
recorded. The route carries around 1.7 milion vehicles per year, about 10
percent of which Is slow moving, animal or man-powered traffic, and of the
total traffic around 60 percent Is commercial traffic. The accident data
Include all reported accidents Including those In which there was no
personal Injury. The equation given below was estimated by ordinary least
squares.
(1) AA - -.66 + .093RF + .013C + 2.07J

(4.27) (6.42) (5.51)
R2 _ .80 S - 1.83
(ratios of coefficlents to standard errors In parentheses),
where: AA - total reported accidents per km per year.
C - average degrees of curvature (0 /km)
J - no of Junctions (Junctions/km).
The means and ranges of the explanatory variables are shown In Table A.1.
ACCIDENTS 359
Table A.1: Means and Ranges of Explanatory Variables: Equation (1)
Variables Mean Min Max
RF(m/km) 11 1 58
C(0 /km) 65 0 710
J(no/km) 2 0 6
Using the average annual traffic figure given above and information
concerning the proportion of accidents Involving personal inJury (40
percent on this highway), this equation is converted (see CRRI 1982) to
give the following relationship for personal Injury accidents per 106
vehicle kilometers (Ap):
(2) Ap - -.15 + .022RF + .0031C + .48J.
Evaluating (2) at mean values of the explanatory variables gives a

predicted rate of 1.25 personal injury accidents per 106 vehicle
kilometers. Increasing average rise + fall by 10 m/km from Its average
leads to a predicted increase in the accident rate of 18 percent, while
increasing average degrees of curvature by 1000 /km from its average, rise +
fall held fixed, leads to a predicted increase in the accident rate of 25
percent. In the Indian study analysis traffic volume Is regarded as
constant along the length of the highway though the possibility of local
variation is noted. It seems likely that local traffic will be higher In
the neighbourhood of Junctions - also, Junctions may be more frequent near
to villages where there is likely to be relatively more slow moving
traffic. Though these observations suggest that the coefficient on numbers
of junctions per kilometer should be interpreted carefully, many
Investigations In developed countries have indicated the Importance of the
effect of this variable on accident rates.
The second investigation reported In CRRI (1982) compares average

accident rates for the period 1976-80 on 34 routes varying in length from
9km to 509km, five of which are sections of the Bombay-Pune road considered
above. Accident rates were obtained from police records and include
accidents not Involving personal injury. For each route average rise +
fall, average degrees of curvature, average pavement width, and number of
junctions per kilometer were measured. Two sets of analyses are reported,
one using accidents per kilometer as dependent variable, the other,
accidents per vehicle kilometer. In CRRI (1982) the former are
recommended, largely on the grounds that the goodness of fit "R2 "
statistics are higher when the dependent variable Is expressed as accidents
per kilometer. However, it Is not meaningful to compare "R2" statistics
360 ACCIDENTS
from equations in which the dependent variables differ by a nonlinear

transformation. Further It seems unreasonable to write the effects of
gradient and curvature as independent of traffic volumes as Is done in the
linear specification used In CRRI (1982) for the equation for accidents per
kilometer. Consequently we report here equations for accidents per 106
vehicle kilometers (AA). None of the reported equations Include measures
of both vertical and horizontal geometry, presumably because of
multicollinearity in the data set, so we give two equations, one Involving
average rise + fall, the other average degrees of curvature.
(3) AA - 1.50 + .00342C + .39J - .26W + 1.27T

(4.14) (1.43) (-1.58) (3.34)
R2 _ .49 S - .765
(ratios of coefficients to standard errors in parentheses).
(4) AA - 0.19 + .0638RF + .55J - .12W + 0.96T

(4.48) (2.00) (-0.73) (2.65)
R- .52 S - 743
where symbols are as defined as above and additionally:
T - Annual traffic (106 vehicles per year).
The means and ranges of the explanatory variables are shown In Table A.2.
Table A.2: Means and Ranges of Explanatory Variables:

Equations (3) and (4)
RF(m/km) 1 45 17
0
C( /km) 16 727 159
J(no/km) 0 2.7 .73
W(m/km) 4 7 6.0
6
T(10 vehicles/yr) .14 1.73 .78
To convert to personal Injury accidents per 106 vehicle kilometers

(Ap) we multiply through by .48 as recommended In CRRI (1982), obtaining
ACCIDENTS 361
(5) Ap - .72 + .00155C + .19J - .13W + .61T
(6) Ap - .09 + .031RF + .26J - .06W + .46T.
Since curvature and rise + fall are positively correlated In this data set
(r - 0.85) It Is likely that the coefficients on curvature and rise + fall
given above are over estimates though we note that the curvature
coefficient is smaller than that reported In equation (2).
Setting explanatory variables at their average values for the data

set gives a predicted personal injury accident rate of around 0.81 per 106
vehicle kilometers. Increasing average rise + fall by 10 m/km from its
average leads to a predicted Increase In accident rate of 38 percent.
Alternatively, Increasing average degrees of curvature by 1000 /km from its
average leads to a predicted increase in accident rate of 19 percent.
While the rise + fall effect Is similar to that found In the Investigation
of the Bombay-Pune road, the curvature effect is smaller.
These Indian study results are somewhat at variance with those

reported by Jacobs (1976) and discussed In Jacobs and Sayer (1983). Using
data from Kenya and Jamaica, Jacobs obtains the following equations for
personal Injury accidents per 106 vehicle kilometers:
for Kenya:
(7) Ap - 1.09 + .031C + .062RF + .62J + .0003R
and for Jamalca:
(8) Ap - 5.77 - .755W + .275J
where symbols are as above and additionally:
R - Surface roughness, Bi (mm/km).
The coefficients In equation (7) are not particularly well

determined but even so, the magnitude of the curvature effect relative to
those obtalned in the Indian study Is noteworthy. Of course the Kenyan,
Jamaican, and Indian environments are quite different and It may be asking
too much to expect close agreement, particularly when the descriptive power
of the average measures of geometry used In these studies Is recognised.
McLean (1984) surveys empirical results on accident-geometry

relationships and presents results in the form of adjustment factors
appilcable to roads deviating from some specified norm: The user Is
expected to provide accidents rates for the base case road and then apply
362 ACCIDENTS
adjustment factors multiplicativelyto obtain accident rates of Interest.

Drawing on early German work by Bitzl (1957) reported In Highway Users
Federationfor Safety and Mobility (1981) McLean provides the adjustment
factors given In Tables A.3 and A.4 to be applied to accident rates for
flat, straight roads. It appears that all McLean's results refer to
reported accidents includingthose not involvingpersonal injury.
Table A.3: Accident Rate AdJustment Factors for Grade
Grade (%) Adjustment Factor: KG
0 - 1.9 1.00
2.0 - 3.9 1.04
4.0 - 5.9 3.27
6.0 - 8.0 3.83
Source: McLean (1984).
Table A.4: Accident Rate AdJustment Factors for Curvature
Curve Radius (m) Adjustment Factor: Kc
> 4,000 1.00

300 - 4,000 1.20
200 - 300 1.33
100 - 200 1.78
< 100 2.13
If AB Is the accident rate per vehicle kilometeron a near level,

near tangent road, then the predicted accident rate, A, wlth grades or
curves as specified Is given by:
(9) A - KC KG AB.
McLean comments that the factors given In Tables 4.29 and 4.30 will tend to
underestimatethe effects of grades and curves In Isolation. He also notes
ACCIDENTS 363
that the tables are based on "limited, and somewhat dated, data," and that
"they should be regarded as tentative values only."
Macbean (1982) analyses U.K. data on accidents at rural

nonjunctIon sites. He finds no assoclation of accident risk with gradient
but a positive correlation with curvature. Curvature effects are found to
be small for curves with radius greater than 500 m but curves sharper than
this are associated with "fairly abrupt Increases in risk." Macbean does
not provide equations relating accident rates to curvature. On the
questlon of the effect of road width on accident rates Macbean comments:
"Research results on the relationship between accident risk

and road width are confusing. Certainly any effect of width is
much smaller than that of curvature: the majority of those
studies which have sought a relationship have failed to find one.
The remainder are fairly evenly divided between those which find
that accident risk decreases with increasing width and those which
find the opposite. This study falls into the last group.'
(Macbean 1982, p. 15.)
Table A.5, derived from McLean (1984)'s Table I and Figure 2,

gives results of five studies In which the effects of travelled way width
and shoulder width are considered separately. Users are required to
specify an accident rate (accidents per vehicle kilometer), AB, for a road
with travelled way width 7.2 m or greater and shoulder width 3m or greater.
Predicted accident rates, A, are then given by:
(10) A - KTKSAB-
Table A.5 also shows base accident rates, AB, used In the five studles
surveyed by McLean.
Table A.6 gives results from three studies in which total road
width (including shoulders) Is used as an explanatory variable and is
derived from McLean (1984). The table gives adjustment factors KR to be
applied to base accident rates, AB, for roads with width less than 13.2m.
Predicted accident rates are given by:
(11) A - KRAB-
Zaniewskl et al. (1981) In a report prepared for the U.S. Federal

Highway Administration use data collected from 1975-78 by the Texas State
Department of Highways and Public Transportation to examine the
relationship between accident rates and the Present Serviceablilty Index
(PSI), which Is a measure of highway surface conditlon closely (but
Inversely) related to surface roughness. They conduct separate analyses
for Inter-reglonal highways (class 1), U.S. and state highways (class 2),
and for farm to market and ranch road highways (class 3). Regression
analyses of accidents per mile and of accidents per vehicle mile suggest
that on class 1 highways, accident numbers and rates Increase as PSI
364 ACCIDENTS
Table A.5: Adjustment Factors for Travelled Way and Shoulder Width
Base Accident Rate Travelled way width Shoulder Width

(Accidents/vehicle adjustment: KT Adjustment:KS
Study kilometers)_ l
AB 6.5 0 1 2
Silyanov (1873) 1.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 _ 1.6 1.15
(various)
Jacobs(1976) 1.t 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.3 _ _ _

(Jamaica)
(
Lelsch and .9 - 1.5 1.3 1.1 - - 1.05

Neuman (197S)
(U.S.)
!Jorgensen (1978) .6-1.3

*~~~~-
-
-_
-
-
1.2 1.1 1
- -_
1.6 1.4
-
|1.1
I(U.S.) __ __ __ __ _
Zegeer et al 1.1 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1 1.3 1.3 1.05

(1981)(U.S.)
Table A.6: Adjustment Factors for Total Roadway Width
RoadwayWidthAdjustment:KR
i Study 6m 8m 1om ; 12m
Leisch and _ 1.4 1.2 1.15

Neuman (1979)
(U.S.) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Jorgensen (1978) 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.05 1

(U.S.)
Zgeeretat 1.7 1.4 1.2 1

(1981) (U.S.)
Notes; For base accident rates used in studies (AB) seo Table 4.31.

ACCIDENTS 365
increase, that is as surface condition Improves. On class 2 and class 3

highways there is some evidence to suggest that accident numbers and rates
decrease as PSI Increases. Zaniewskl et al. remark that
"The analyses In this study suggest that there Is a

statistically significant relatlonship between PSI and accidents,
but that the relationship is small, and the direction of the
relationship depends upon which analysis approach one believes"
(Zaniewski et al. 1981, p. 87).
They quote Tignor and Lindley (1981) as finding no statistically

significant relationship between accident rates and pavement Improvements
but some evidence pointing to increases in accident rates as pavements are
Improved.
The cost of accidents and the value to be placed on reductions in

accident risk vary across time and across countries. The Indian study
reports data on accident costs. Their calculations lead to the figures
reported in Table A.7.
Table A.7: Accident Costs: Indian Study
Cost per Accident

(1978 Rupees)
Fatality 49,804
Serious Injury 29,510
Minor injury 321
Damage to buses 5,467
Damage to trucks 6,111
Damage to cars 1,200
The vehicle damage costs for buses and trucks are obtalned from
112 user survey vehicles Involved In accidents and Include repair costs and
costs incurred because vehicles are unable to provide their normal service
while being repaired. Car damage costs were collected from insurance
companies. Minor injury costs are calculated as medical expenses plus loss
of earnings. Serious injury costs are calculated as medical expenses plus
legal expenses plus value of loss of output to the community as a result of
hospitalization of disability. Fatality costs are calculated as value of
loss of output plus a notional value for paln, grief, and suffering of
relatives etc. plus medical and legal expenses.
Harrlson (1982) reports an exploratory analysis of accident data

obtained from companies cooperating in the Brazilian study road user survey
In which he finds no sIgnificant relationship between accident costs and
average surface roughness. Information on accident frequency and accident
costs Is given in Table A.8. Rows 1 - 3 of this table give details of
366 ACCI DENTS
Table A.8: Accident Costs: Brazil User Survey
Light Med Heavy

Cars Goods Buses Trucks Trucks
1. No. of conpanies surveyed 4 2 10 5 3
2. No. of vehicles surveyed 129 16 230 30 12
3. No. of vehicles recording 54 11 182 21 12

accident costs
4. Total km travelled (103km) 10,605 4,584 23,942 2,286 789
5. Total km travelled by vehicles 5,283 2,702 19,118 1,801 789

recording accident costs (10 3km)
6. Total accident costs 105,000 114,000 1,471,000 40,000 44,000
7. Accident
costsperunit 19.9 42.2 76.9 22.2 55.8
distance,
vehicles
recording
accidents 3km)
(1976Cruzerios/10
8. Accident costsperunit 9.9 24.9 61.4 17.5 55.8

distance, allsurveyed vehicles
(1976 Cruzerios/103 km)
9. Accident costs per unit 19 13 18 4 6

distances as % age of maintenance
costs excludilng accident costs
10. Accident frequency (km/accident) 80,000 142,000 70,000 82,000 29,000
11. Cost per accident 1,600 6,000 5,400 1,800 1,600

(1976 Cruzerios)
Source: HarrIson (1982).

ACCIDENTS 367
numbers of vehicles and companies sampled. Around half the vehicles

sampled had experienced accidents during the survey period; some had
experienced more than one. Average accident frequency Is recorded In row
10 and ranges from 1 accident per 29,000 km for heavy trucks to 1 accident
per 142,000 km for light goods vehicles. Note that sample sizes are small
for light goods vehicles and for medium and heavy trucks and that recorded
accidents are all incidents leading to vehicle repair costs but that
vehicles so severely damaged as to be written off do not appear in the user
survey records. Consequently, the accident frequency and cost figures In
Table A.8 should be regarded as underestimates.
Rows 7 and 8 of Table A.8 show accident costs per unit distance
and row 9 gives these costs as a percentage of maintenance costs excluding
accidents. These costs relate to repair costs only and do not Include
costs associated with cargo damage, personal injury, or with the
unavailability of vehicles during repair.
I I I
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I
I I
I I
I I
t
NW- The World Bank
The Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Series

To provide road design and maintenance standards appropriate to the physical and economic
circumstances of developing countries, the World Bank in 1969 instituted the Highway Design and
Maintenance Standards Study, which developed into a major collaborative research project with
leading research institutions and highway administrations in Australia, Brazil, France, India,
Kenya, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The aims of the study comprised the
rigorous empirical quantification of cost tradeoffs between road construction, maintenance, and
vehicle operating costs; and, as a basis for highway decisionmaking, the development of planning
models incorporating total life-cycle cost simulation. Controlled experiments and extensive road
user surveys were conducted to provide comprehensive data on highway conditions and vehicle
operating costs in radically different economic environments on three continents.
The five volumes in the series represent the culmination of the 18-year endeavor, along with
a computerized highway sector planning and investment model, currently in its third version
(HDM-III). The first three volumes in the series provide theoretical foundations and statistical
estimation of the underlying physical and economic relationships. The other two discuss the model
and its use and are essential references for applying HDM-III.
Vehicle Operating Costs: Evidence from Developing Countries

Andrew Chesher and Robert Harrison
Presents an economic model of firms' management of vehicle fleets, which serves as a framework
for the statistical analysis of vehicle operating cost data.
Vehicle Speeds and Operating Costs: Models for Road Planning and Management
Thawat Watanatada, Ashok M. Dhareshwar, and Paulo Roberto S. Rezende Lima
Presents the theory and estimation of a comprehensive set of models to predict speeds and
operating costs under free flow conditions for a wide range of vehicles on medium- and low-volume
roads as functions of road geometry and condition.
Road Deterioration and Maintenance Effects: Models for Planning and Management
William D. 0. Paterson
Contains an extensive analysis of the physical processes, causes of deterioration, and performance
prediction relationships, as well as the effectiveness of maintenance practices on unpaved and
paved roads.

Volume 1. Description of the HDM-III Model
Volume 2. User's Manual for the HDM-II1 Model
Thawat Watanatada, Clell G. Harral, William D. 0. Paterson, Ashok M. Dhareshwar, Anil
Bhandari, and Koji Tsunokawa
Volume 1 organizes relationships described in the first three volumes, as well as a road construction
submodel, into interacting sets of costs related to construction, maintenance, and road use. Volume
2 provides guidance on the use of this model including input data forms, inference ranges, and
default values-and gives numerical examples.
ISBN 0-8018-3588-7
ISBN 0-8018-3668-9 (5-volume set)

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Vehicle Operating Costs

Andrew Chesher and Robert Harrison

Publishedfor The WorldBank

The Johns Hopkins University Press

All rights reserved

The Johns Hopkins University Press

The findings, interpretations, and conclusions

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-PublicationData

Chesher, Andrew, 1948-

Vehicle Speeds and Operating Costs

Road Deterioration and Maintenance Effects

The Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model

The Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model

Clell G. Harral Per E. Fossberg

Part I. Vehicle Operating Costs: Background, Theory, and Estimation I

Part II. Estimates of Cost Components 43

Chapter 4. Vehicle Speeds 75

Chapter 6. Tire Costs 193

Chapter 7. Maintenance Costs 227

Part III. Total Vehicle Operating Costs 287

Chapter 8. The Calculation of Transport Costs 289

Chapter 9. The Costs of Transport Services 317

Annex. Accidents 357

This book provides information concerning the costs of

The studies were performed in order to provide information to use

Benefit cost analyses of highway investments proceed by

Highway engineers have, for many years, been concerned to discover

One of the earliest surveys of operating costs was reported by

In the early 1950s, the first appraisal manual Incorporating road

Winfrey's comprehensive review of the American vehicle operating

Despite the considerable efforts devoted to collecting U.S. and

Table 1.1: Data Sources for Wlnfrey (1963)

Item Primary Sources OtherSources

Fuel Clafbey (1960)

Engine Oil Moyer (1939) Wintrey (1962)

Maintenance Stevens (1961) Wlntrey (judgement)

Depreciation Stevens (1961) Wintrey (judgement)

Gravel Adjustments Moyer (1939) Wlntrey (judgement)

Source: Hide (1976).

It Is evident that Winfrey's (1963) text was a major source and

After the publication of de Weille's work It was clear that

In 1969 the World Bank initiated a program of research to develop

Phase 1 of the program was carried out by staff of the

Table 1.2: Data Sources for de WeIlle (1966)1

Item Primary Sources Other Sources

Speed MSHO Red Book (1959) Odier (1962)

Fuel - speed Winfrey

Oil - speed Winfrey

Tires - speed Wintrey

Deprecation de Weille (judgement using

1. All references to Winfrey are to Winfrey (1963).

2. See table 1.4 for Winfrey's sources.

Source: de Weille (1966).

Abelson (1973) examined de Weille's work, and identified four areas in

Australian research in the field of vehicle operating costs during

The second edition of the United States Forest Service Vehicle

In 1981, an updated version of the Federal Highway Authority

This book Is concerned with operating costs for motorized vehicles

Chapter 2 which follows concludes Part I. It sets out on economic

Vehicle Operating Costs: Theory and Estimation

Most of this book is concerned with estimates of vehicle operating

The statistical procedures used to produce the studies' results