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Evaluation of Geothermal Potential of Turkey as an Alternative Source of

Energy Under Demand and Supply Dynamics of Other Energy Resources

Conference Paper · November 2020

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 Evaluation of Geothermal Potential of Turkey as an Alternative Source of Energy
Under Demand and Supply Dynamics of Other Energy Resources

Celal Hakan Canbaza, Cenk Temizelb, Yildiray Palabiyikc, Aysegul Balikcioglud, I. Omer
Yilmaze, Sezgin Aytunaf, Fred Aminzadehd, Necdet Pamirg

a
Ege University, bAera Energy, c ITU, d USC, e METU, f Aytuna Consulting, g Bilkent
University

Abstract

This study investigates the strong potential of use of geothermal resources in Turkey in a critical
and dynamic political environment within the region in terms of the sustainability of energy for
the country now and in the future as a developing country. Turkey depends on energy
importation in order to fulfill their need of energy on present day. This requirement is
compensated by importing fuel which makes up more than the half of it. Adding to a program
of saving energy, along with energy sources that are renewable, geothermal energy is seen as
an intriguing source for green and sustainable future of energy by the government, regarding
the geothermal energy potential position which is the seventh, worldwide. Geothermal energy
is mostly utilized for residences and space heating, greenhouse heating and for the generation
of electricity as well. Geology of Turkey (e.g. Western Anatolian Grabens) is the reason of the
high potential of geothermal energy. Unfortunately, many Turkish geothermal plants are
located on reservoirs, that the non-condensable gases content of carbon in the geothermal fluids
are high, which causes are significant issue of excessive emissions of carbon. A projection for
2018 estimates the production of power would be 750 MWe while the estimation for space
heating would be 4000 MWt, which means 30% of residences in Turkey could be geothermally
heated. This study aims to first outline the geothermal potential of Turkey in details evaluating
the current and expandable capacities and the steps that need to be taken to achieve projected
targets not only within the scope of geothermal resources to be utilized in the households but
also its potential to complement fossil fuels as a domestic source of energy as opposed to
significant amounts of imported petroleum and natural gas under the dynamic political
atmosphere of the region.
Introduction

The concept of sustainable energy essentially is supplying energy without using limited
resources that bear risks of depletion and expiring. Once installed, sustainable energy plants do
not harm the nature, while they come free of charge, therefore it should be supported widely.
The sources of renewable energy (i.e. wind, hydropower, geothermal, solar and ocean) are all
sustainable and vastly available, as well as stable (Akat, 2017).

In ancient times, biomass was widely accepted and was the sole method towards providing
energy. Timber and wood along with waste products were used as sources of energy, mostly.
As technology improved fossil fuels were discovered (oil, coal, naturel gas). This discovery
boosted the human kind since the sources were abundant and easy to obtain. The worldwide
acceptance of fossil fuels led to an environmental degradation. Two major energy sources that
are responsible of the carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere, coal and oil are the main
reason the global warming is increasing.

Besides, these precious sources are controlled by a small number of countries; so this causes an
increase of the value of them. The pollution of air, price rise and depletion risk are main drives
of the urge to find energy sources that are renewable. The necessity of the day is to seek
abundant, emission free resources which are replenishable as well. The role of sustainable
energy is to compensate the rising need of energy while keeping them available in the future as
well (Ozturk, 2016).

Turkey, 6th and 17th largest economy in Europe and the world, respectively, is facing a rise in
demand of energy. The growth of the energy market of the Turkish nation was proven to be one
of the fastest, among the OECD countries along with the nation’s growth of energy in the last
decade (EPDK, 2017).

Turkey follows up China, as China is the biggest importer of electricity and natural gas and is
the second biggest economy. It also should be mentioned that Turkey comes up second after
China in means of economies importing natural gas and electricity demand. According to the
Ministry of Energy and Natural resources, these will be no change in the strategical and midterm
plans and policies which were decided upon the nation’s supply security of energy, energy
resources alternatives and diversity and the usage of native resources for the creation of added-
value for the economy as well as the energy liberation of the markets along with the efficiency
of energy.

A significant priority was given to the maximum usage of renewable and domestic sources,
considering this perspective. The main drives of the rising demand of energy are fast-paced
urbanizing, expanding economy uprising demographics and the increase of income of income
per capita. Energy demand of Turkey is expected to rise 4-6 percent until 2023, annually. It was
prioritized by the government that the percentage of renewable sources will add up to 30% by
the year of 2023 (Melikoglu, 2013).

One of the hot topics on the energy agenda of Turkey is renewable energy. In the last the years
the government made important changes in energy. In year 2005, the law on utilization of
renewable energy resources for the purpose of Generating Electrical Energy was enacted. After
the enactment, the progress in renewable energy field has been tremendous. The government of
Turkey made, revised and realized many regulations and laws ever since. Therefore, Turkey
has turned into a point of interest in terms of energy investment, globally, due to the regulations
that are favourable for investors and the upwards trend in demand.

The country’s sector of energy is getting more dynamic. Also, each element in the value chain
of each sub-sector are becoming more charming for investors. The projection made by the
Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources has shown that the investment needed in order to
compensate the demand of energy by the year 2023 is more than twice as much invested in last
decade; which is approximately $110 Billion. The future vision of Turkey for the year 2023
particularly emphasises renewable energy targets of the sector. The targets for hydropower
plants, wind power plants, solar power plants, geothermal energy, and biomass are 34,000MW,
20,0000MW, at least 5000 MW, at least 10000MWe and 1000MWe, respectively (Melikoglu,
2017; INVEST, 2017).

The paper called Electricity Energy Market and Supply Security Strategy was developed and
put in action in May 2009. Main target of the strategy was to raise the portion of resources of
renewable energy used for the generation of electricity to 30% by 2023. Subsequently, 2010-
2014 strategic plan for the energy sector was initiated. This plan which was launched by the
Ministry itself comprises 5 different strategic themes that includes 32 long term objectives and
11 goals and performance indicators, that are in line with these. Also, the plan was monitored
and evaluated. The government releases the National Renewable Energy plan in February 2015.
This plan was formed as a guideline for meticulous planning and effective development of the
renewable energy resources until 2023 (EPDK, 2017). Also, this plan is in line with the
European Parliament Directive 2009/28/EC, which was prepared on the 23rd of April 2009 and
focuses on utilizing renewable energy for energy generation. The plan can be found online, and
it is a document that is international, it describes the development plan of Turkey and vital steps
to keep the plan on track, while being transparent as well.

Review of Historical, Current and Near Future Demand/Supply Characteristics of

Turkey as a Developing Nation

Turkey's geothermal capacity is able to cover about 30% of the total heat energy demand and
5% of the total electric energy demand. When we look at the average weight of this potential,
Turkey is able to provide 14% of its electrical and heat energy requirement with its own internal
resources (Kaplan, 2015).

Turkey’s geothermal heat potential is considered to be about 31.500 MW thermal. The

geothermal energy studies in Turkey started about 45 years ago by the General Directorate of
MTA, the presence of 190 geothermal fields have been discovered so far.

As a result of the drilling conducted in discovered areas, 3881 MWt of heat energy has been
generated, which is 12.3% of the heat potential of our country. The amount of generated heat
energy in the heating of housing units and thermal facilities of settlements is approximately
30%. Figure 1 shows geothermal resources of Turkey, as it is seen on the table Turkey has
significant geothermal energy potential.

Turkey expects growth of between 6% and 8% of the annual energy demand until 2020. In
addition, it is expected to add 50,000 MW to the grid. In Europe, Turkey is recognized as one
of the world's most promising "hottest" market for geothermal energy and seventh in terms of
geothermal energy potential (MTA, 2017). In Europe, Italy is the market leader with more than
50% of the European capacity. The geothermal exploration and development centers in Europe
are Turkey and Iceland. Although Germany is new in this field, the country is considered as an
important player in the market (Simsek, 2017).
About 1200 geothermal wells for the geothermal electricity production and direct use of
geothermal applications in this field has been drilled by Turkey since 1960 (Kilic, 2016). Since
2009, about one-third of these wells have been opened. 59 new geothermal projects have been
completed as of 2013 or currently under construction in Turkey (Melikoglu, 2017).

There are more than 290 geothermal fields discovered in Turkey with the new additions.
Approximately 95% of these fields are the most suitable low-to-medium enthalpy sites for
direct use applications (MTA, 2017). Turkey's theoretical geothermal energy potential is
estimated to be 31,500 MWt. Although this value has recently been increased to 60,000 MWt,
the proven potential with drilling operations (4209 MWt) and natural discharges (600 MWt) is
only 4809 MWt. Recently, 58% (2705WWt) of proven capacity has been used for residential
heating (805MWt), geothermal heating, thermal plant heating (380MWt), greenhouse heating
(612MWt), balneological use (870MWt) and heat pump applications (38MWt). Investigation
of geothermal resources for electricity production shows the most important change in
activities. Table 1 shows the geothermal power generation potential and the temperature of
geothermal regions in Turkey (Aksoy, 2014).
Table 1. The geothermal power generation potential and the temperature of geothermal regions in
Turkey

Figure 1. Geothermal Resources in Turkey (MTA)

Energy Resources, Reserves and Potential of Turkey

The annual average energy demand rate was realized as 4,3% between 1990 and 2008 in
Turkey. However, since 2008, the energy demand has had the highest rate between other OECD
countries. Similarly, due to Turkey has the highest growth rate in demand for electricity and
gas since 2000, after China it has become the second largest economy. Total primary energy
consumption of Turkey was 106.3 million Tons Equivalent of Petroleum (TEP) in 2008.
Additionally, production was at 29.2 million TEP level. According to the source, gas (28.2%)
was the first in terms of total energy consumption, followed by petrol (31%), coal (27.3%) and
hydraulic (8.6%). According to the reference scenario, our primary energy consumption is
expected to increase by 4% annually until 2020.

Figure 2. Sources of Turkey’s primary energy consumption

Turkey produced 169,500 GWh of electricity and consumed 143,070 GWh in 2006 (Kurtaran,
2008). Traditional fossil resources such as lignite, hard coal, fuel oil and natural gas constitutes
the largest share of the electricity supply in Turkey. However, in the last decade, the renewable
resources such as geothermal, wind and sun power has become very popular and has grown
rapidly. Following the same trend, nuclear energy expected to be one of the energy resource
alternatives of Turkey in close future, as well. Unfortunately, the country is poor for oil and
gas sources where 99.7% of gas and 93.6% of oil are being imported from neighbouring
countries.

Energy statistics of Turkey shows that a significant amount of the consumed energy is
constituted by fossil fuels. Nowadays, thanks to fossil fuels, approximately 86.5% of the energy
we need is covered. According to 2017 data, the energy consumed of Turkey is provided by
31% from petrol, 28.2% from natural gas, 27.3% from coal and 12.5% from hydraulic and other
renewable energy sources. However, the amount of imported is 93.6% of the oil consumed,
85.8% of the coal and 99.7% of the natural gas. According to a general evaluation,
approximately 65-70% of the overall energy consumed is imported (WEC, 2016). In the future,
Turkey's foreign energy dependence is expected to be proportional to the increasing demand in
energy demand. In Turkey, the expected general energy demand is 126 million tons of oil
equivalent.

According Ministry of Energy Natural Resources of Turkish Republic, the distribution of our
installed power by resources are 21.5% coal, 33.6% hydraulic, 1.1% geothermal, 28.1% natural
gas, 7.7% wind, 7.4% other sources. In addition, the number of electricity energy production
plants in the country reached 3098 by the end of July 2017. The number of existing power plants
is 288 natural gas, 186 wind, 613 hydraulic, 40 coal, 33 geothermal, 1.773 solar and 165 other
power plants (MENR, 2018).

Oil & Gas

The known domestic oil reserves (2017) in Turkey are 332 million barrels, the lifespan of the
total known domestic oil reserves is nearly 18 years (MENR, 2018). Domestic oil production
(TP and private) is only average of 50,000 bopd based on today’s production levels, only 7.7%
of the demand for crude oil was met through domestic production. However, the country
consumes around 650,000 bopd of oil, whereas nearly 600,000 bopd is being imported from
Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Saudi Arabian and others. Turkey has also very limited natural gas
sources, domestic gas production is only around, 35Mscfd (1M m3d) mainly in the Thrace
Basin, but the consumption is average of 5-7Bscfd. The domestic gas production only meets
the demands less than 1% but more than 99% is being imported from Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan
and Algeria (LNG) and others.

Coal

Turkey has many coal resources, mainly Lignite and Hard Coal where most of the lignite mines
are operational by General Directorate of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) and Hard coal mines
by the General Directorate of the Turkish Hard Coal Enterprises (TTK). Also, EÜAŞ is another
Government Company produces surface and near surface lignite mines and run coal fired
electric power plants. The lignite coals are mainly formed in Miocene and Eocene ages.
According 2017 estimation (TKI) Lignite reserves are close to 13.5 billion tons but the reserves
and productions are declining.
Figure 3. Coal Production from 2011-2015

Figure 4. Coal field locations in Turkey

The hard coals are only located and produced at deeper mines (<400m) in the Carboniferous
age layers but only located around the city of Zonguldak on the western Black Sea coast line.
But the hard coal production declines since 1973 due to geological and other reasons; the area
is highly faulted and hard to follow the coal beds in the mines and the mines are old. However,
there are deeper coals but unable to be reached by available technologies.

Figure 5. Annual sales for Turkey’s Hard Coal Company (TTK)

However, both lignite and hard coal deep coal beds (>500m) may have Coal Bed Methane
potentials, known as CBM. Yet, this is a fairly new subject, only few wells have been drilled
for that purpose and only is around the Zonguldak Paleozoic Basin. In some deep wells some
CBM was encountered in Lignite mines.
Figure 6. Total installed power

Renewable Energy

The fast-economic growth and vibrant young population of the country leads to a continuous
increase in Turkey's electricity demand. Turkey's electricity demand over the next decade is
considered almost will continue to increase exponentially. Thanks to renewable energy sources
such as solar, wind, geothermal and hydroelectric, the Turkish government wants to cover 30%
of the electricity demand of the country until 2023.

Wind Power

Wind Power is a relatively new subject since 1998, a total of 152 separate contracts has been
signed and wind power is being generated, a total of 6.105 MW annual installed capacities.
Most (> 70%) of them where the wind is suitable for this type of operation is located in the
western part of Turkey (Akova, 2011). In addition, 35 new wind farms are under construction
and Turkey have a total installed capacity of 861 MW as of January 2017 (TWESR).
Theoretically, in terms of the total wind energy potential of Turkey's can be nearly 88,000 MW
per annum. In 1986, the electricity generation by wind energy was realized with a nominal wind
power capacity of 55 kW for the first time in Izmir. In addition, after the establishment of the
first wind farm wind energy consumption in Turkey has increased (Hepbaslı, 2003). After 2007,
wind activities began with the wind law that had passed the parliament.

Figure 7. The capacity of installed wind power (TWESR, 2017)

Figure 8. Annual installations of wind power plants (TWESR, 2017)

Solar Power

The geographic position of Turkey makes the solar energy potential of the country immense.
The total sum of yearly insolation time adds up to 2741 hour, which equals to an average of 7.5
hours, daily. The total yielded solar energy is 1527 kWh/m2, which corresponds to an average
of 4.18 kWh/m2, daily. There are many types of solar technologies depending on the processing,
the materials used, and the level of technological sophistication; though basically the
technology can be assumed into two main subcategories. The first one exploits the solar energy
as a heat source and these technologies are used for electricity generation of directly as heat.
These are called concentrated Solar Power and Photo-emissive solar technologies. The other
primary technologies are solar cells. Solar cells are semiconductors, which use the sunlight to
convert it to electricity. This technology is also named as photovoltaics.

Figure 9. Annual solar radiation

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal energy is a type of energy that utilizes the heat energy deep underground. The
attained heat is provided by hot dry rocks, dry steam, steam and hot water that once have
gathered up inside rocks and have migrated, then was accumulated by the fluid heat. Given the
fact that the Turkish tectonic zone is active and comprises many faults, especially in the western
region, the country withholds an abundant amount of geothermal resources (Pinar, 1948). It was
estimated that the country has around 1000 geothermal springs. Theoretically, it is thought that
the country’s geothermal capacity is 31500 MWt. The regions that with geothermal fields are
western and Central Anatolia, Marmara Region and Eastern Anatolia with 78%, 7% and 5%,
respectively (Fig. 10). The rest fields are scattered around the rest of Turkey. 90% of these
resources can be used directly (i.e. heating and thermal tourism) because of their low to medium
enthalpy nature. Other 10% can be used for applications that are indirect such as electricity
generation.

In Turkey, the utilization of geothermal energy varies greatly. Currently, production of

electricity, heating both residential and for greenhouses, mineral achievement for drying and
also in health tourism is possible through geothermal energy. The first-generation plant was
established in 1975 by MTA on the geothermal field of Kızıldere and was lauched in Sarayköy
(Efeler), Denizli, which is located in western Anatolia. The capacity of the plant is 0.5 MWe
(MENR, 2018). Today, it is controlled by private equity.

Explorations of geothermal resources were initiated in the year 1962 by MTA in Turkey. By
the help of the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, seeking of new areas with potential
and improvements for already known resources has started, in year 2005. As a result of this
mobilization, an additional of 1900 MWt utilizable capacity was granted, and the number of
discovered fields went up to 234. Until today, in Turkey 383000 meters were drilled as a
consequence of 613 drillings. So far, yielded heat energy of these drillings make up a total of
5000 MWt (MENR, 2017).

Along with the enactment of legislation, investments in explorations made way for new
investors. Therefore, an acceleration of explorations investments and development has been
recorded. As a result of the progress, the visible amount of geothermal heat capacity total
became 15500 MWt. To summarize the progress made in Turkey regarding geothermal
activities between years 2012 to 2017;

- Fields that are feasible for generation of electricity has risen to 25 from 16 in year 2017.
- The greenhouses utilizing geothermal heat went up to 3913000 m2 from 500000 m2 with
an increase of 686%.
- Residences heated exploiting geothermal energy became 114.567 RE in 2017 while it
was 30000 RE in year 2002 (281% risk).
- Generated electricity using geothermal energy is 860 MWe (June 2017) an increment
of 281% was observed in comparison to 2002, which was 15 MWe.
- Capacity of geothermal heat got to 15500 MWt in year 2017 from 300 MWt. The
increment is 416%.

Figure 10. Geothermal energy potential

Nuclear Energy

Turkey has not yet started nuclear energy production. In the Akkuyu site (south-eastern
Mediterranean coast line) on May 12, 2010, a nuclear power plant agreement between the
Government of the Republic of Turkey and the Russian Federation was signed. The second
nuclear power plant agreement between Turkey and Japan was signed for the Sinop Nuclear
Power Plant (on the Black Sea coast (MENR, 2018) on May 3, 2013.

Hydro Power

Turkey has 140 GWh of technically feasible hydroelectric potential. Since the end of 2009,
there are currently 150 hydroelectric power plants (HEPP), which correspond to 14.417 MW
of installed power capacity and 38% of the total potential (Kucukali, 2009).

The hydroelectric power plants covered 18.5% of the total electricity generated in 2009. The
contribution of the hydroelectric power plants to electricity production has substantially limited
due to the recent drought. However, the hydroelectric production increased by 7.8% in 2009
compared to 2008 and reached 35,870 MW. Until 2023, Turkey aims to use all hydroelectric
potential which electricity generation in technical and economic terms (Kaygusuz, 2002).

Turkey has a very high hydroelectric potential, both in technical and economical terms.
Currently, over 25% of the Turkey's electricity demand or more than 57.5 TWh is provided by
hydroelectricity. Until 2023, this demand is expected to double according to official projections.
According to the results, 22% to 27% of Turkey's annual demand for electricity is understood
that should the supply from hydroelectric power plants in 2023. Therefore, the electricity to be
produced is between 22.5 TWh and 45 TWh (Melikoglu, 2013).

Turkey's fresh water reserves is divided into 25 basins and thanks to 14 of these basins, more
than 95% of the country's hydroelectric potential is covered. The most of these basins in
Turkey's mountainous regions. The Euphrates-Tigris rivers cover the drainage area of 184.918
km2 (22% of the country area) and the altitude range from 500m to 5000m. It is also estimated
that the country retains 30% of its hydroelectric potential (DPT, 2001 & Küçükali and others,
2009). Consequently, one of the countries with the highest hydropower potential in the Middle
East is Turkey. Similarly, the Black Sea region has an important hydroelectric potential due to
its steep and mountainous landscape that extends along the coastline. Due to the high capacity
of the river, especially the Eastern Black Sea region is particularly important. Two dams are
built On Çoruh River. Additionally, the 3rd one is being built. Historically, the most important
renewable energy source is considered to be hydropower in Turkey.

Turkey's annual total hydropower potential is estimated to be 433,000 GWh. And this potential
constitutes 14% of the capacity of total hydroelectric in Europe and about 1% of the world
(Kaygusuz, 2002). Technically, approximately half of this gross potential is exploitable,
216,000 GWh, and 28% or 127,381 GWh can be exploited economically. Turkey had a total of
more than 275 hydroelectric power plant at the end of 2011. These hydroelectric power plants,
with an installed capacity of approximately 16,600 MW, were able to produce an average of
58,250 GWh per year. In Turkey, there are still considerable untapped hydroelectric potentials.
The hydroelectric potential that can be added to the grid is approximately 60,000 GWh
(Melikoglu 2013).

Energy-related Institutions

In 1935, MTA (General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration) was established in
order to conduct scientific and technological researches on all explorations, coal and geothermal
energy. The institution is responsible for only exploration not for extractions and development.
When the new coal resource is discovered, first they are offered to TKİ, TTK and/or EUAŞ
Government companies if they do not like the resources, it will be auction to private companies.
The private produces coals are mainly bought by Government running coal power plants.

TKİ (General Directorate of Turkish Coal Enterprise) responsible for extraction and
development for lignite coal only. It is established in 1957 in Ankara, and they have several
field offices in the country. Most of TKI lignite fields are shallow and needs to investigate the
deeper coal for Coal Bed Methane potentials. No wells are drilled for that purpose.

TTK (General Directorate of the Turkish Coal Enterprises responsible for extraction and
development for hard coal only. It is established in 1937 in Ereğli, Zonguldak. However, the
hard coal in the area has been known since 1848.
EÜAŞ (Electric Production Company) is established in 2001 and responsible for development
and producing of coal, run for coal power plants and also runs hydro power plants. EÜAŞ
produced a total of 90,823 GWh electricity generation including 38,311 GWh hydraulic and
52,512 GWh thermal. This production is equivalent to 38% of Turkey's electricity production.
DSI (State Hydraulic Works) was established in 1953 in order to design, construct, plan and
operate dams, domestic water, hydroelectric power plants and irrigation systems. Turkey has
15% hydro power potentials of Europe and it is 3rd country for water resources potentials after
Russia and Norway.

TPAO (Turkish Petroleum Company) is established in 1954 and is responsible for exploring oil
and gas resources and produce them in the country and abroad. Turkey consumes around
650,000bbl oil each day and only 50,000bbl (including the private sector) is being produced
domestically, the rest is imported. Every day Turkey consumes between 160-200 Million
m3/day and only <1% is being produced domestically.

Coal run power plants highly pollutes the environment, and most of the coal run power plants
are located nearby the fairly large towns and the people complaints a lot, especially for the high
sulfur gases and acid rains by coals, such as around cities of Zonguldak, Eskisehir and Manisa
(Soma). Also, every 3-4 years major coal mine accidents happen due to Coal Bed Methane
problems in the mines. However, our lignite coals have low calorific values and there are several
imported coal power plants in the country which are expensive to run them.

Gas may be the cleanest energy after solar and wind, but 99% gas is being imported from other
countries and gas prices are very high and Turkey pays about 22B dollars every year for the
gas imports. Oil is not clean energy and 93 % oil is being imported from other countries, oil
should not be used to generate electricity.

Solar is a free source of energy and geographical location of Turkey is suitable for good solar
energy. However, solar energy is new in the country, and only can support small towns. Wind
is also free energy and western Turkey is suitable for that kind of source and is able supply
energy to small populated areas. Turkey has the largest water resources in the Middle East and
most of energy is still generated by hydropower, and more plants are being constructed around
the country. Nuclear is a new subject in the country and there are many concerns by the people
of country, such as several big accidents happens in the world. Nuclear waste is also a big issue
after 30 years. Geothermal is the cleanest, but farmers around the fields are complaining due to
CO2 and other gases. Also, it can supply limited energy.

Supply and Demand Characteristics of Turkey

The Turkish economy is estimated to have grown to US$ 850 Billion (nominal) or US$ 1.5
Trillion in terms of purchase power parity (PPP) in 2018 from US$ 150 Billion (PPP) in 1990.
With this growth came an increase in energy demand, that grew at the same rate as the economy.
To supply the growing energy need, there was a capital influx to develop its power plant
capacity and associated energy infrastructure. Over 67% of the total primary energy supply of
Turkey stems from natural gas, oil and coal. Turkey’s energy import bill of $60 Billion in 2013
accounted for 25% of its total import expenditure. Natural gas imports from Russia and Iran
take the majority share of its energy imports.

Figure 11. Energy development indicator with index 1990 at 100 (IEA)
Figure 12. Electricity generation capacity and source distribution: 273.4 TWh in 2006 (IEA)

Supply

A growing economy gave birth to a demand increment in energy. Consequently, Energy supply
of Turkey has been rapidly expanding to support the strong economic growth. As of 2015, the
TPES was at 129.7 Mtoe with a larger share of energy supplied by imports rather than domestic
production which only meets a quarter of the demand (Fig 13).

Figure 13. Total primary energy supply in 2015: 129.7 Mtoe in 2015 (IEA)
As shown in Table 2, fossil fuel imports have increased by 53.2% in a decade from 74.2 Mtoe
to 113.6 Mtoe with natural gas taking the largest share of imported TPES. Dissimilar to the fate
of coal and oil, the share of natural gas has been in an up rise in comparison with its
counterparts.

Table 2. Energy imports in 2015 vs 2005

Source 2015 (Amount in Mtoe) 2005 (Amount in Mtoe)

Natural Gas 39.2 10.9
Oil 39 25
Coal 35.3 15.47

Most of the domestic production and energy supply comes from coal. As can be seen from
Table 3, slightly under half of the domestic production is supplied from renewable sources.
TPES is forecasted to increase by 71.4% to 222.4 Mtoe by the end of this decade.

Table 3. Domestic energy production in Turkey (2015)

Source Amount (in Mtoe) % Share

Coal 13.45 41.8
Oil 2.67 8.3
Natural Gas 0.32 1
Biomass 3.25 10.1
Hydro 5.76 17.9
Geothermal 4.76 14.8
Solar 9.66 3
Wind 9.98 3.1

Overall, 87.6% of TPES is provided by fossil fuels (domestic and imported), which is slightly
less than the 2005 levels due to investments in expanding renewable energy capabilities with
additions leading to 28 gigawatts of total installed renewable energy capacity as of 2015. As
hydro-electricity has the largest share of renewable installed capacity, varying hydro basin
levels have significantly shifted the TPES share originating from renewable energy sources an
annual basis.
Demand

With a rapidly expanding economy, the total final energy consumption (TFC) has increased by
35.8% over the last decade. In 2014, Turkey’s TFC was at 85.8 Mtoe, accounting for about 70%
of the TPES. Table 4 shows the breakdown of TFC from multiple sources.

Table 4. Total final consumption (TFC) in 2014

Source Amount Consumed (Mtoe) % Share
Oil 30.54 35.6
Natural Gas 19.39 22.6
Electricity 17.67 20.6
Coal 10.55 12.3

Over the past decade energy use in industries, households, commercial and public services have
increased by 20.3%, 5.8% and 105.4% respectively. Energy use in transport sector went up till
2010 but it has been on a downward trend since then.

Table 5. Sector-wise breakdown of total final consumption (TFC) in 2014

Sector Energy Consumed (Mtoe) % Share of TFC
Industries 30.9 36.1
Transportation 20.6 24
Households 19.1 22.3
Commercial and Public Services 15.1 17.6

The demand for natural gas has been up by 207.1% since 2004, and this has been led by the
increment in use of natural gas instead of coal utilization for the generation of electricity,
heating and for industrial processes. Utilization of solar energy and geothermal energy has
boosted in the past decade with geothermal energy now being increasingly used for multiple
heating purpose in both the domestic and commercial sectors. Per government projections, TFC
is estimated to reach 170.3 Mtoe by the end 2020.
Near Future Characteristics

By 2030, Turkey’s demand for primary energy is estimated to double and electricity demand is
expected to triple. Amongst other goals, to meet these demands while ensuring energy and
environmental sustainability, the government has launched a Vision 2023 program. Vision 2023
objectives include, but are not limited to,
• Increase GDP to US$ 2 Trillion
• Build infrastructure to sustainably use resources within the country such as coal and
geothermal
• Increase renewable energy share in the mix of energy through the installation of 600
MW geothermal energy and 20000 MW wind energy.
• Reduction of the intensity of energy by 20% taking 2010 level in account.

One of the goals of Turkey is to drop the greenhouse gases (GHC) by 21% until 2030.

Potential and Desire of Turkey to Develop/Invest on Geothermal Resources

As seen throughout history, it is a known fact that the growth of the economy is parallel with
the consumption of energy for emerging and recently developed countries. During the last
quarter century, the increase of the consumption of energy of Turkey is correlated to its growth
of economy (Melikoglu 2017). From 2005 to 2015, Turkey’s 4.4% per annum growth rate in
primary energy consumption, is the highest in Europe (BP, 2017). Eventually, the energy
infrastructure of the nation improved, which led to an increment in the capacities of power
generation plants, parallelly. Table 6 shows the capacity of Turkish power plants and their
corresponding source of energy by the end of 2016 and 2017 (TEIAS, 2017).
Table 6. The capacity of Turkish power plants and their corresponding source of energy by the end of 2016 and
2017, MW

Globally and countrywide, greenhouse gas emissions mainly CO2 emissions increased
immensely over the last four decades (Worldbank, 2017). Encouragement of the increase in
renewable energy directed investments by many countries is due to the search of solution to
minimizing greenhouse gases and the volatility of the prices of fossil fuels. In line with this, an
avid goal for Turkey was set by the government, which is to fulfill 30% of the Turkish demand
of energy via renewable energy by 2023. Table 7 shows details of energy goals of Turkey,
which is a part of vision 2023 (INVEST, 2017).

Table 7. Details of energy goals of Turkey (INVEST, 2017)

The main concern that renewable energy sources face is the baseload supply. Baseload
providers are used when a generator is able to supply a stable and a foreseeable amount of
electricity, and they are typically the backbone of these systems (Pfenninger & Keirstead,
2015). Networks majorly use base plants in order to supply electricity and these plants utilize
fossil fuels. Being immune to weather, geothermal energy is regarded as the baseload supply
among renewable energy sources, since it is accessible 24/7, all year round. The facts such as
being extractable without the need of burning fossil sources (i.e. natural gas, coal or oil) makes
geothermal energy a clean energy source. The power itself is homegrown, thus decreases fossil
fuel dependence (DOE, 2018).

Even though the share of geothermal energy makes up a little portion of the world’s energy
consumption for countries lacking homegrown fossil sources, like the Philippines. The total
capacity of installed geothermal sources went up to 13.2 GW in total with the recent
installations of 315 MW capacity while Turkey is accounted for the half of these recent
installations, the nation is pursued by USA, Mexico, Kenya, Japan and Germany. The share of
each country’s addition to the global capacity is shown in Fig. 14 (WEC,2016).

Figure 14. Geothermal global capacity additions by country in 2015 (WEC, 2016)

Top seven countries make up for 70% of the direct utilization of geothermal energy. These
countries are China, Turkey, Iceland, Japan, Hungary, USA and New Zealand, respectively
which is demonstrated in Fig. 15 (WEC, 2016).
Figure 15. Top countries that utilize the most direct geothermal heat in 2015 (WEC, 2016)

Today, Turkey is located at the 4th order in installed electricity capacity in the world in
comparison with the values recorded in 2018.

The study Geothermal Energy Potential and Exploration in Turkey conveyed by MTA in 2017
estimates that Turkey has nearly 1000 geothermal springs all around the land with different
temperatures (MTA, 2017).

In Turkey, 319 geothermal fields are discovered, and the total available heat capacity from all
these wells is stated as 16098.8 MWt. Total direct use installed capacity is reported as 3272
MWt which shows that the utilization of the total available heat is around 20% (Akkus and Alan
2016). By the end of December 2017, there are 30 licensed geothermal electric power plants in
operation with a total capacity of 835.558 MWe, and with a total installed capacity of 1261.853
MWe. (EPDK, 2017)

A man-made reservoir with the presence of a hot rock, though lacking permeability or fluid is
named Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) under controlled conditions, the fluid is introduced
under the surface in order to re-open fractures that were present before to create permeability
(Mertoglu, 2015). The study The Future of Geothermal Energy, conveyed by MIT in 2006,
anticipates that singlehandedly USA can provide a cost competitive capacity of 100 GWe by
EGS, which is projected for next 50 years (MIT, 2006). The Turkish economical and technical
potential of electricity production (3-5 km) using EGS is expected to be 25 GWe in the next 25
years (Mertoglu et al. 2015). Unconventional geothermal areas could be facilitated by EGS and
this helps to extend geothermal energy production, countrywide.
History and Current Situation of Geothermal Energy in Turkey

Geothermal Energy Potential of Turkey has taken the attention of many local and international
energy companies in last decade. Substantial amount of this potential is a result of Geological
Structure of the Graben system in Western Anatolia region. Geothermal Productivity areas are
respectively located in Western Anatolia with 78% of total potential, Central Anatolia with 9%,
and other regions such as; Marmara (7%) and Eastern Anatolia (5%).

In a Geothermal Reservoir, Temperature is the most important parameter that dominates the
productivity of the wells and directly affects the Energy Efficiency of the power plant.
Therefore, conservation of reservoir fluid temperature is crucial. In Turkey, most of the
geothermal resources are classified as low (< 150 oC) and medium temperature (150 oC< T<
200 oC) reservoirs and limited to be served in direct usage like extraction of minerals, tourism,
and heating of commercial as well as residential buildings. When all reservoirs considered, only
10% (17 fields) of the fields are able to be used for electricity generation (MENR, 2018 and
Ozturk, 2016).

Figure 16. Turkey Geothermal resources and applications

Although, Anatolian geothermal resources that reached to the surface (hot springs, fumaroles
etc…) were used effectively for cooking and health by many civilizations (Hittites, Romans,
and Turks), the milestones related to the scientific history of Anatolian Geothermal Systems,
regulations and the usage of underwater geothermal systems were started with the establishment
of Republic of Turkey. Simsek gives the details and chronological order in his book as below:
(Simsek, 2017).

1926: First Law which describes the quality and standards of drinking and washing water was
declared.
1935: The establishment of MTA (The Mineral Research and Exploration Institute)
1947: The First book named as "Turkey Mineral Waters" and related to Geothermal Fields of
Turkey was published by Caglar (Caglar, 1947).
1948: Another milestone study which is related to the mineral & hot water springs and tectonics
of Aegean Region was published by Pinar (Pinar, 1948).
In the beginning of 1960s, Geological Research and International Projects were founded and
the inventories of the whole Geothermal Resources of the country were updated.
1962: First geothermal surveys were performed in Balcova Area-Izmir city.
1963: Following the survey results, the first well drilled in Balcova Area-Izmir and the reached
to the reservoir fluid that has 124 oC reservoir temperatures in 40m depth.
1965: Geothermal surveys continued to be performed in West part of the country.
1966: Erentoz and Ternek (Erentoz and Ternek, 1966) published the first paper related to
geothermal energy and thermomineral sources (MTA study).
1967: Concentrated on another location and "Western Anatolia & Denizli Geothermal Project"
that was a cooperation project of MTA and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
was started.
1968: The project resulted with the discovery of the first high-temperature geothermal reservoir
of Turkey that has 198 oC reservoir temperature and 540m depth in Kizildere Region of Denizli
city.
1974: Turkey's first geothermal power plant was set up by the MTA in Kızıldere. The installed
capacity of this trial plant was 0.5MW. The plant was also containing the first trial greenhouse
plant.
1975: International Balneology Congress took place in Turkey. First book related to Turkey's
mineral water was published by Istanbul University.
1979: MTA prepared and declared the first Geothermal Law draft.
1982: As a result of drilling operations of MTA, Tuzla and Germencik Geothermal Fields were
discovered with 232 oC and 174 oC fluid temperatures, respectively.
1982: Governmental Regulation related to Geothermal Fields and Waters declared in new
Mining Act.
1983: Geothermal heating system with downhole exchanger system started to be used in first-
time in Balcova Field-Izmir city.
1984: First Geothermal Power plant that includes a single-flash mechanism (15 MW) started to
be used by TEK (Turkish Electricity Authority) in Kizildere Field-Denizli city.
1986: A CO2 plant installed and put into use in Kizildere field. It was the first plant for CO2.
1987: First District Heating (DH) system with geothermal source was put into use in Gonen
Region of Balikesir city.
1990: It has been realized that some stimulations such as; using chemical inhibitors are
increasing the productivity of Geothermal fields. These stimulations were implemented to
several wells that have high-level of scaling phenomena. It positively affected the investments
to geothermal heating projects.
Starting from 1990s, District Heating applications were started to be used widely in rural areas
of some cities such as; Bigadic, Sorgun, Diyadin, Edremit, Kozakli, Kizilcahamam, Salihli,
Saraykoy, Sandikli, Simav. Additionally, it started to be used in city centers of Izmir
(Narlidere), Kirsehir and Afyon.
2002: First-time in the country, Reinjection processes started to be applied to the wells of
Kizildere field.
2005: WGC 2005 (The World Geothermal Congress) was held in Antalya-Turkey.
2006: Private Sector investments were started in Geothermal Industry and the first power plant
that includes a binary system was installed in Salavatli region-Aydin.
2007: Updates on regulations. The New Law of Geothermal Resources and Natural Mineral
Waters were declared. It paved the way of private sector to apply for exploration and
exploitation licenses which were previously permitted to operate just by the government.
2008: Kizildere Geothermal Field privatized to Zorlu Energy.
2009: Following the new Law, the numbers of Exploration and Exploitation licenses were
reached to 3000 in two years period.
2009: A Geothermal power plant (47.4 MW) that includes a double flash system installed in
Germencik Field - Aydin. It was the first-time in the geothermal history of country.
2013: Another power plant with 80MW was installed and started to be used in Kizildere Field
by Zorlu Energy.
2014: Installed Capacity of Electricity generation by using geothermal sources has reached to
410 MW. The Turkey ranked 10th in the list of top 10 countries in the geothermal energy sector
at the end of 2014 (ThinkGeo Website).
2015: Installed Capacity increased to 650 MW with the additional installation of power plant
with 162.3 MW installed capacity in Germencik Field-Aydin.
2016: The installed Capacity has reached up to 775 MW and the country ranked as 7th in the
list of top 10 countries in geothermal power generation capacity in the end of 2016 (ThinkGeo
Website).
2017: In the end of 2017, the installed Capacity has reached up to 1053 MW and the country
ranked as 4th in the list of top 10 countries in geothermal power generation capacity (ThinkGeo
Website).
2018: In 2018, around 1 Billion $ investment done in Geothermal Energy sector of Turkey and
the total installed capacity increased up to 1200MW (Figure 17) (ThinkGeo Website).

The milestone of the Geothermal Energy history of Turkey can be considered as the beginning
of Geological Surveys in Southwest part of the country in 1965. These surveys came up with
successful results and Kizildere Geothermal Field was discovered. The First Power plant of
Turkey was installed with the capacity of 500 kW in 1974. Following the investments on the
field, the installed capacity was increased to 17.4 MW in 1984. However, this installed capacity
was extremely exceeding the reservoir potential of actual power generation which was around
10 MW. The production strategy continued in the same way until 2008, the time that the
operational rights of the field were purchased by a private company, Zorlu Energy. A whole
range of stimulations with an effective FDP were performed and 20 new wells that reach up to
2900 m TVD and highest temperature reach up to 245 oC were successfully drilled (Aksoy,
2014).

These new wells were also increased the power generation potential and paved the way of
installing an additional power plant. The second power plant which increased the total installed
power up to 95 MW with its capacity around 80 MW was built in 2013.
Figure 17. Geothermal power capacity of countries in the end of 2018

Additional to that, the installation of the third geothermal power plant with two different phases
finished with 320 Million $ investments in 2018. The installed power of the third power plant
is around 165 MW (99.5 MW+65 MW) and increased the total installed power of Kizildere
Geothermal Field up to 260 MW (Zorlu Energy).

Prospects, Plans and Prediction for Geothermal Energy in Turkey

Following the enhancement on the Renewable Energy Utilization Law (2007), Turkey has
showed a significant progress sourced by the attention of domestic and international investors
in geothermal energy area. Currently, the country ranked as 4th with 1200 MW geothermal
power capacity (Figure 17). Based on the historical data of Turkey Geothermal Power Capacity,
3 different prediction scenarios with Linear Trend of Growth, Exponential Growth, and
Exponential Decrease on Growth performed for next decade (Figure 18).

1. Future Prediction with a Linear Trend of Growth

A linear trend line behaviour plotted by the assumption of yearly geothermal power capacity
historical data will continue with the same increment rates as were in last 7 years. Herein, the
linear part of the historical data (Last 7 years) took into consideration to create the linear
prediction line till 2030. In other words, the scenario assumes that yearly growth of investments
and installations will continue with the same linear increment rate as it was between 2012 and
2018. According to the prediction results, the Power capacity is expected to be around 1570
MW in 2020, 2515 MW in 2025, and 3456 MW in the year of 2030.

Figure 18. Based on different scenarios, the future predictions on geothermal power capacity of Turkey (2019-
2030)

2. Future Prediction for Exponential Growth

The second scenario describes a case that the attention of domestic and international investors
on Turkey geothermal resources will show an increase and it will be resulted with an
exponential increase in yearly growth rate of Installed Power Capacity. It could also be named
as a realistic "Best Case" Scenario and it considers the period of 2007-2018, the starting time
of the first private sector exploration and exploitation license applications till today. Results
showed that the geothermal power capacity of Turkey will be around 1560 MW in 2020, 2995
MW in 2025, and 5760 MW in 2030.
3. Future Prediction for Exponential Decrease on Growth

Third scenario describes a situation that the investor confidence affected negatively sourced by
various parameters such as; technical problems resulted by temperature decrease in the
geothermal reservoirs that produces existingly. In this scenario, the attention of investors as
well as yearly increase rate of Geothermal Power capacity will decrease and stop by time. The
scenario assumes that the current Installed power capacity will remain and continue to
production, so it can be called as "Relatively Worst Case" scenario. Third scenario shows that
the geothermal power capacity of Turkey will be around 1445 MW in 2020, 1880 MW in 2025
and 1912 MW in 2030. By using the trendlines of these three scenarios, a "Prediction Area"
plotted. Herein, it is expected that the future behaviour of Turkey Geothermal Power capacity
will be inside the boundaries of this area.

Recommendations for a Sustainable Energy Future

Energy is a primary tool and requirement for the essential needs and macroeconomic
development associated with the welfare of a nation as well as the environmental issues.
Therefore, sustainable development has become a necessity for energy. Utilization of fossil
fuels are the main causes of environmentally adverse impacts such as acidification, climate
change, and air pollution. Even though usage of nuclear energy may have economic benefits
for some nations, it may bring serious problems such as waste, disposal, and storage problems
along with nuclear weapons that have started being more common in some parts of the world.
On the other hand, bioenergy can remarkably give cause for desertification and its adverse
impacts on biodiversity along with cultivation related to the energy crop causing dramatically
increase in food prices (IAEA, 2005). Hydro-power and wind-power, which are among the
renewable energy sources, can have another negative impact on the ecological life of nature
(Shortall, 2015).

Sustainability Conditions

Utilization of energy should be evaluated along with sustainable energy development which is
a concept coming into existence especially in recent years. This paradigm requires the efficient
use of energy in the context of the economics, safety, and accessibility conditions by also
considering the reduction of environmentally and health-related adverse impacts (Modi, 2006).
In this respect, most of the developing countries have recently started to pay much more
attention to this paradigm by making investments on research and development regionally
supported by various partnerships by means of recent advances in technology about the energy
efficiency and by diversifying the energy types in view of the parameters mentioned above
(Kari and Saari, 2006).

Reliability and cost-effectiveness along with the sensitivity to the environment are the most
important parameters to be able to construct a sustainable energy system making use of national
possibilities and resources [5]. Renewability is another important phenomenon that should be
considered simultaneously with sustainability. However, this is not adequate most of the time
to satisfy a whole sustainable development [1]. For instance, effective monitoring in terms of
social, economic, and environmental considerations is a must for successful sustainable
development of geothermal energy [2]. At this point, the sustainability of a geothermal reservoir
gains great importance along with the renewability concept. However, a geothermal reservoir
can eventually return to its original state if the sufficient time (practically very long time) is
given to balance the system.

Impacts for Sustainable Development of Geothermal Energy

Impacts that arise from the developments of geothermal energy can be categorized into specific
themes which are called production patterns, global economic partnership and consumption,
freshwater, economic development, atmosphere, biodiversity, land, demographics, natural
hazards, health, education, and poverty. And those impacts characterizing the themes are briefly
described with both positive and negative sides in Table 8.

As can be understood from Table 8, all the themes should be carefully inspected because of the
variable characteristics of the impacts such as positive, negative, varying, and unique and for
this reason, the geothermal system should be defined very well for the construction of
successfully sustainable development [3].
Table 8. Impacts on sustainable geothermal systems based on themes

Requirements for the Sustainability of Geothermal Energy Developments

Mainly five characteristics can be counted to provide the required conditions depending on the
impacts regarding the sustainable geothermal energy development as follows [3]:
 • The sustainability of a geothermal project should be accomplished with positive social
impacts. These impacts should realize and meet the educational and health-related basic
needs along with the safety necessities.

• The project and related services should be environmentally-friendly by taking

remediation and protection of nature simultaneously into consideration and preventing
air pollution and adverse effects that may deteriorate ecological conditions.

• The project and related employments should be economically viable and technically
feasible to meet the sustainability conditions.

• It should be renewable as well as the sustainability to be able to efficient exploitation

and utilization of the resources.

• This project should have objectivity, cost-effectiveness, accessibility, and availability.

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