Translation from Russian Hydrometeorological and Environmental Monitoring Service of the Russian Federation (Rosgidromet) ASSESSMENT of environmental pollution in the Balkans and adjacent territories caused by NATO rocket and bomb strikes against Yugoslav territory Moscow 1999lone In view of the fact that rocket and bomb strikes against industrial and military installations presenting a chemical and radiation hazard in Yugoslavia may cause powerful and/or long-lasting accidental emissions of significant quantities of pollutants into the environment, which, in the normal course of atmospheric and water migrations, may lead to transboundary pollution of territories and to a perceptible deterioration of the ecological situation (especially in areas where the existing level of technogenous pollution is already high), Rosgidromet has, from the moment the strikes began, regularly made operational assessments and forecasts of possible environmental pollution levels The work is taking place in the following main areas: # A petmanent waich is kept over the hydrometeorological situation in areas where the most high-risk installations are located with a view to continuously monitoring the direction and speed of diffusion of pollutants in the event of their accidental discharge into the cuviroument. Special attention is being given to installativs of the chemical and pharmaceutical industries (Fig.1), the Belgrade Institute of Nuclear Science at Vinca, and the natural gas and petroleum processing plants at Pancevo and Novi Sad, as well as to gas and vil-producing areas (Fig.2). For the purpose of operational assessment and forecasting of potential areas of accidental air pollution, calculations of air mass displacement are regularly conducted at altitudes of 500, 1500 and 300 metres from the areas of location of these installations. The calculation results are given in Fig.3, ‘* Permanent monitoring of incoming information concerning the areas and districts, subjected to strikes, and assessment and furecasting of essential hyd:umeteorological parameters determining the transfer of pollutants from these areas. Information about the location and time of strikes is received with the help of space observation systems (Fig.4), various SMI (2) and Inteinet (Figs. 5 and 6), © Expert estimates of the quantity, composition, duration and other indicators of probable processes of eutission of pollutants into the environment resulting from the complete or partial destruction of various installations or fires in them or from the use of military technology. In particular, Annex 1 gives estimates of pollutant emissions into the air resulting fium aviation and rocket fuel combustion,‘© Operational estimates and forecasts of possible transboundary environmental pollution; estimates of probable ecological consequences of actual accidents to potentially hazardous objectives due to rocket and bomb strikes. In view of the absence of reliable information on the parameters of the sources of environmental pollution, Rosgidromet’s model calculations were bascd on expert estimates and on experience of similar calculations in connection with Kuwait, Iran, Iraq and the Chechen Republic. Expert estimates were made, in particular, of the consequences of air pollution caused by fires at oil reservoirs and by the destruction of containers of toxic substances at the Pancevo chemical plant (sections 2 and 3). Annex 2 contains a bulletin concerning possible pollution in Yugoslav territory caused by the combustion products of oil and other fuels and lubricants. 2. Estimates of environmental pollution due to fires at vil reservoirs Entry of combustion products into the air The greatest environmental pollution is currently being generated by the burning of oil reservoirs at Pancevo. As a result of these fires a number of toxic and cancerogenic substances are entering the atmosphere. As a rule, petroleum combustion results in discharges of carbon black, heavy metals (lead, mercury), sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and aromatic hydrocarbons including ben2(a)pyrene, which possesses cancerogenous properties and is, classified as a 1” class hazard. The pollutants chosen for the purpose of assessing the risk of effects on the population from fires in oil reservoirs were the most indicative ones, namely, carbon black and benz(a)pyrene. The calculated source parameter estimates, reduced to a standard magnitude of 10 000 t of oil, are reproduced in the table below.Source parameters | Presumedoilmass | Pesioduf | Speedufeaibon | Speedof | Calorific value | Enteccive height | | inside the reservoir | burning | lack emission | hen7(a)pyrene ‘of elevation en ank) | emission (eT | Bias 1S kg/sec tkglsec 10° sec T000m It was presumed that about 100 000 tonnes of oil would burn as a result of 7 days of bombing. Calculation results The calculations were based on actual meteorological conditions during the period from 12.04.99 to 16.04.99 and on forecasts up to 19.04.99 prepared by the Russian Hydromet Centre Figs. 7-10 show the results of calculations of surface concentration fields of carbon black and benz(a)pyrene and of the fallout of these substances onto the earth surtace. FLATs, the Rosgidromet's internationally tested long-distance transfer model, was used in making the calculations. The calculations showed that as a result of the fires an extensive territory covering more than 10 European countries suffered pollution, The maximum concentration and fallout values are found within 100 km from the site of the fires and are, respectively, 2.4x10° g/m? and 1.0x10* g/m2 for carbon black and 6.0x10* mkg/m* and 1.0x10* mkg/m* for benz(a)pyrene (the PDK (?) of these pollutants are 5.0x10“/m’ for carbon black and 1.0x10 mkg/m’ for benz(a)pyrene). Thus, the pollution by combustion products does not represent a hazard at the point of maximum concentration. Since benz(a)pyrene is a cancerogen, conservative estimates of the risk to life within the limits of thresholdless (2) concentration were carried out. The risk was found to be 3 orders of magnitude below the acceptable annual risk, which equals 5x10°. Calculations of pollution of the river Danube were also carried out. A 150 km long sector of the river was within the atmospheric fallout area. The average concentration in the river was 3x10" mkg/m3. A conservative estimate was also made of the benz(a)pyrene content inside the river fish; this was found to be 3x10° mkg/kg. Eating fish with such a content (helow 107) will not canse cancerngenaus diseases.4. Ecological consequences of NATO air strikes against the Pancevo cher plant on 18 April 1999 Initial data used in the calculation Source of emission Estimate calculations of possible air pollution hy toxic substances as a result of NATO air strikes against the chemical plant at Pancevo in the night of 18 April 1999 were carried out. According to preliminary data obtained from SMI (?) bulletins, the plant had considerable stocks of toxic chemicals, especially liquid ammonia (NH,). The precise quantity of toxic chetivals stored at the plant could not be ascertained. It was therefore decided to base the calculations on the quantity of ammonia evaporated as a result of the destruction of tanks. As a rule, chemical plants of this size will store thousands to tens of thonsands of tonnes of ammonia, The basis adopted was 10 000 tonnes of liquid ammonia spilled on the earth surface and entering the atmosphere through evaporation. According to our estimates, the spill area may he between 10* and §.10* m?. The period of evaporation may be between tens of jules and several hours, depending on the size of the spill area and on extemal conditions, especially the temperature. Expert estimates using a variety of methods gave the period of evaporation as approximately 1 hour. Toxicity ‘The effective toxodosis (TD) of 15 mg.min/I (900 g.s/m3) in the air was adopted as the normative indicator of toxicity. According to the methodology in use in Russia, the effective toxodosis is the minimum quantity of powerful toxins per unit of polluted air capable of causing a perceptible effect over a certain period of time. Doses below the TD are non- dangerous and do not cause noticeable physiological changes. Meteorological conditions The meteorological situation was estimated on the basis of data from meteorological stations nearest to the emission site. 'able 1 shows the names of the localities concerned, the station index, the time of measurement (in hours GMT from the start of emission), the station coordinates, and wind direction and velocity. The stability of each station at the time ofmeasurement, which varied from neutral (class D) to very stable (class F), was also determined. The average diffusion conditions corresponded to Pasquil-Gifford (2) class E. Table 1: Meteorological conditions in the are of diffusion of the cloud Name ofsiaiion [Station | Time ] Longitude | Latitude ] Divection | Velocity index _| (hrs MT) Belgrade/Surcin 13272 0 20.283 ‘aaRI7 100 z ‘Smederevska Palanka | 13279 0 20.950 W367 10 z Oravita 15338 0 21.083 F033 30 z Orava Tass 3 TOSS uss WD e Novi Sad | 3168 6 19.850 45.333 110 3 Belgrade/Surcin 13272 6 20.283 44817 140 4 Belgrade 13274 6 20.467 4.300 160 3 Smederevska Palanka | 13279 6 20.950 44367 110 z Velika Cendicie THR To 14.750 140 7 Ora oa? Trey | aso 19 z ‘Gravina 135 21883 5.035 140 9 Novi Sad T3168 7 19850 BIT 320 3 Belgrade/Surcin 13272 2 20.283 ‘44817 140 2 Belgrade 13274 2 20467 44.800 140 2 ‘Smederevska Palanka | 13279 2 20.950 “44367 160 3 Veliko Gradiste T3298 7 217 7H 1a 7 Oravita T5338 2 21.3 5033 180 s Onavite 15338 2 21.685 5.033 13 z Now Sad T3168 8 19.850 BR 290 T Belgrade/Surcin. | 13272 18 20283 | 44817 270 9 Belgrade 13278 18 20.467 45.800 290 3 ‘Smederevska Palanka | 13279 1s 20.950 W367 290 4 Veliko Gradiste 13288 1s 2ST 15.750 390 a Oravita 13338 8 21.685 45.033 330 7 Oravite T5338 2 26S 5033 230 z Calculation results The calculations were carried out using a local FIATs model (limit of applicability, not more than 100 km from the source) in accordance with the emission scenario described insection 3. The calculation results are shown in figs 11 and 12, The graph in Fig. 11 plots the ‘maximum ammonia vapour concentration against the distance from source. Table 2 shows the times when these values were reached. Fig.12 shows the isolines of toxodoses in the atmosphere. It will be seen from the diagram that the inhabited localities of Stara-Pazova, Novi Sad and Batainica fell within the trace zone. However, they arc outside the arca of the effective toxodosis which, according to calculations, has a length of 32 km and an area of 90 km2. To allow for possible inaccuracies the length should be increased to 50 km and the area to 150 km2. Thus there is considerable likelihood of toxicological effects on an unprotected population over a sizable area. However, in view of fact that the diffusion of the toxin cloud took place at night when most of the population were indoors, only personnel of special services are likely to have been exposed to toxicological effects. Work is currently continuing on estimating and forecasting the levels of environmental pollution caused by subsequent air strikes against chemically and radiologically dangerous targets. Table 2 Zz 2 | O07 05 02 8 16 32 48 66AS eau jeg NpombiuineHHbie OObeKTHI Merannyprua BOSNIA f polar A ‘Trokesan NpoM-cTb AND i. shieto ls je Pi HERZEGOVINAY ay gg _.faguievac ‘ ww SE od Sarajevo ‘, Krusevac! * ad ob Hestenepasorka ¢ Tasonepepa6orKa Cc wee i Mostar os E mae Nie Xummueckoe npo-80 || * 7 Kosovska || @TexctanbHaa npom-crelts A a & Mnwesan npom-cte : SN atl 7 ran GQ Merxas npom-cr Fig.1: Industrial installations in Yugoslavia Metallurgy Heavy industry Petroleum processing Gas processing Chemical industry Textile industry Food industry Light industryek Slovenia} nent" LJUBLJANA Romania Bosnia and Hercegovina * ‘SARAJEVO O6vexre! O6vexret ry i were: rasonpooore I 8 nepepasormn 4 _ KoNnnexca Mantanage’ Sy S 4 ~~ Hedrenposogni —-- Tazonposoab ~ sIgari¢ Paton Pavone dauteronous Pate) Bulaorts NogrenoSwwn outa ra0a province) pene Fig.2: Installations of the oil-gas complex 1. Oil processing installations 2. Natural gas installations 3. Oil pipelines 4, Oil production areas 5. Gas pipelines 6. Gas production areas‘Trajectories of air mass displacement Yposxun * (1)500m (2) 1500 wm (3) 3000 m Hag NOBEPXHOCTbIO 3emnn Hayano ABWKeHNA BO3AYLWWHOM Maccbl: 29 mapta 1999, 05:00 CrB Koopaunatei uctouHuKa: = 19.8 B.0., 45.3 c.w. (HoBn Can) PesynbTatbl OcHOBaHb! Ha NpeABApUTeNbHbIX OL|EHKAX + Puc.3. Tpaektopun nepemeweHur BOSLYWWHBIX Macc ¢ 29.03.99 3a 72 4aca us r. Hopu Can. 2, Levels: 3. above the earth surface 4. Start of movement of the air mass: 29 March 199. 05.00 hrs GMT 5, Source coordinates: 19.8 deg. longitude, 45. deg. latitude (Novi Sad) 6. Results based on preliminary estimates 7. Fig.2: Trajectories of air mass displacement from Novi Sad over 72 hours from 29.03.99 10Fig4 Fire centres in the Belgrade area (photo taken from satellite NOAA on 4 April 1999, 2.36 GMT) 11Concentration of NATO Attacks of Yugoslavia 24-23 March 1999 ROMANIA BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA See Serbia Ren Novi Pazar Montenegro ~~ Fig.5: Concentration of NATO air strikes against Yugoslavia during the period 24-29 March 1999 12HUNGARY . 4 NATO air strikes ae 7 “A. fon sseato CROATIA oer gael Source: Stratior Z, ROMANIA ° guneon BELGRADE ~ = : . Sq \ 20% no Pazar Montenegro -~ c og atina fouteawia e rete {FYROM Fig.6: NATO air strikes against Yugoslavia, 10 April 1999@ Cpegunn Konujertpayna (c 18 anpena 04:00 no 19 anpena 04:00) Vsonunun: (1) 1.0e-5 (2)1.0e-6 (3) 1.0e-7 (4)1.0e9 rim 2) MakcumantbHoe sHayeHve: 2.36e-5 rim’ G) Fig.7: Map of average daily surface concentrations of carbon black from 18 to 19 April during the Pancevo oil tank fire (seventh day of the fire) 1. Average concentration (from 18 April 1999 to 19 April 04.00hrs) -gim3 2. Isolines 3. Maximum value: gm3 4, Probable emission of carbon black during oil tank fire at Pancevo (Yugoslavia) 5. Results based on advance estimates .. Start of emission: 12 April 1999, 04.00 GMT . Duration: 168 hours Power of the emission: 15 kg/sec of carbon black (10 oil tanks continuously on fire) . Height of the emission: 0-1000 m 10.Source coordinates: 20.5 deg longitude, 44.45 deg latitude 14Fig8 1. Fallout of carbon black (from 0400 hrs on 12 April to 0400 hrs on 19 April) 2. Map of carbon black fallout over 7 days of fire at the Pancevo oil reservoir Bomagennn can (c 12 anpena 04:00 no 19 anpena 04:00) " Vsonunum: (1) 1.0e-1 (2) 1.0e-2 (3) 1.0e-3 (4) 1.0e-4 rim? MakcnmanbHoe sHaveHve: 0.573 r/m? BepostHbli BbiGpoc caxku npv noxape Ha HedTexpanvnuwe B Manyeso (tOrocnasua) PesynbTatbl OCHOBaHbI Ha NpepBapUTeNbHbIx OL|EHKAX Hauano sbi6poca: 12 anpena 1999, 04:00 CrB NpogomxutenbHoctb: 168 uacos MowjHoct Bbi6poca: 15 kr/cek caxku (nocToRHHO ropuT 10 TaHKOB C HEqpTbI0)) Beicota Bbi6poca: 0-1000 m Koopaunarel uctounnka: . 20. 5° B.0., 44.45° c.w. ® Puc. 8. Kapta BbinageHuit carn 3a 7 cyToK noxKapa Ha HedTexpaHunuiye B MaHyeso. 15LFig.9: Map of average daily earth concentrations of benz(a)pytene from 18 to 19 April during the oil reservoir fire at Pancevo (seventh day of the fire) Nos. 2 to 10 arc as in Fig,7, but replace carbon black by benz(a)pyrene Cpeguan KOHWeHTpauua (c 18 anpena 04:00 no 19 anpena 04:00) Usonunun: (1) 1.0e-5 (2) 1.0e-6 (3) 1.0e-7 (4) 1.0e-9 — mxr/m® Makcumanbioe sHayenne: 6.12e-5 mxr/m? BepoatHeii sbibpoc 6exs(a)nupeHa npn noxkape Ha HedTexpakunnwye Nanveso (lOrocnaena) — PeaynbTatel ocHoBalibi Ha npeABapuTenbHbIx oyeHKAx Hauano aui6poca: 42 anpena 1999, 04:00 CIB NpogomkutenbHocte: 168 Yacos MowHocTt Bti6poca: 40 mr/cex 6eH3(a)nupeHa_(noctoaHHo roput 10 TaHKoB c HEdTbiO)) ” Buicota ati6poca 0-1000 m Koopanuatei uctoyHnka:; 20. 5° 6.., 44.45° c.w. 5, Pno, 9, Kapra cpeqHecyTouHtix NpHseMHbIx KOHYeHTpAYNi Gexa(a)nupena ¢ 18 no 19 anpena np noxape HedpTexpannninuya 8 Man4eso (cequmuic cytkn noxapa). 16Fig.10: As in fig.8 but replace carbon black by benz(a)pyrene Boinanenua Bexa(a)nmpena (c 12 anpens 04:00 no 19 anpern B4:00) Vsonunuu: (1) 1.0 (2)10e-1 (3) 1.0e-2 (4) 1.0e-3 mri? MaxcumansHoe sHauenie: 1.49 mxr/Mt BepostHeit Bei6poc Gexa(a)nupeHa npw noxKape Ha HedTexpaHunue B Nanuego (!Orocnaauva) PeaynbtaTbl OcHORAHbI Ha NPELBAPUTeNbHbIX OL|EHKAX Hauano ebi6poca’ 12 anpena 1999, 04:00 CrB NpogomxutensHocth 168 wacoB MouHocte BbI6poca’ 40 mr/cek 6eH3(a)nupexa (nocTORHHO TopuT 10 TaHKOB C He@Tbto)) Buicora ebi6poca’ 0-1000 m Koopauuarsi uctounuKa:; 20. 5° 8... 44.45° cw. is Puc. 10. Kapta sbinageHui Gexs(a)impera 3a 7 cyToK nowKapa Ha He@Texpanwiniye & NaHyeBo. 17Fig.11: Maximum concentrations plotted against distance from source 2.00 —- 160 — C, rim3. Puc.11. 3apneumocts makcumaribHbix KOHUeHTpaNn OT pacctomHua oT METO4HNIKa. 18Fig.12 1. Total concentration (fram 0000 on 18 April ta 0000 on 19 April) 2. Map of total surface concentrations of ammonia from 18 to 19 April during bombing of Pancevo chemical plant (other captions adapted from Fig 7) @ VHTerpanbHan KOHYeHTpaynA (c 18 anpena 00:00 no 19 anpens 00: 00) ——e Vsonunuu: (1) 1.0e+3 (2) 1.0e+2 (3) 1.0e+1 (4) 1.0 T-cex fm? MakcumansHoe sHauenve: §.41€13 r-ceKim? Bel6poc ammuak Ha xummueckom saBoge 8 Manyeso (}Orocnasua) Peaynhrate! ocHosakel Ha npegBapnTenbHbix OUeHKAX Hauano abipoca: 18 anpens 1999, 00.00 CB NponomurensHocrs 1 4a0 MoutHocts aei6poca: 2.8e+6 r/cex ammuaka Beicora rui6poca: 010m Koopaunatei uctounmia: » 20° 40’ 8.n,, 44° 52° cw, ( Puc. 12. Kapta usTerpanbibmx mpisemHbix KOHUEHTPAyW aMmuaKa ¢ 18 no 19 anpens npu 6ombosom yAape No xumMuueckomy 2agony B Naneso. 19ANNEX I Pollutants discharged into the air as a result of combustion of aviation and rocket fuel Fuel combustion in a jet engine causes the following pollutants to be discharged into the atmosphere: carbon monoxide 100 - 200 g/see carbon dioxide 20 - 30 g/sec hydrocarbons 5-15 g/see The following are emitted into the atmosphere as a result of the flight of one tactical rocket powered by liquid fuel: carbon dioxide 5 - 50 kg/sce (depending on the type of rocket fuel used) nitrogen oxides 0.03 - 0.4 kg/sec hydrocyanic acid 0.35 kg/see ammonia 0.005 - 0.05 ky/see hydrocarbons 0.05 - 0.5 kg/sec. Iodine emissions of up to 0.2 kg/see are possible with the use of different mixtures of rocket fuel components. Ifthe rocket is powered by solid fuel, the quantities discharged into the atmosphere are as follows: carbon oxides. 0.02 - 100 kg/sce nitrogen oxide 0.08 - 1.5 kg/see chloride 0.04 - 0.2 kg/sec hydrochloric acid 0.1 - 20 ky/see aluminium oxide (A202) 0.8-80 kg/sec.ANNEX 2 Bulletin of possible pollution of Yugoslav territory as a result of NATO air strikes (rockets & bombs) Air strikes against installations in Yugoslavia, besides causing their destruction or annihilation, lead to pollution of the environment. In particular, strikes against fucl and lubricant storages and oil reservoirs not only cause fires but also cause these products to spill and penetrate into the soil and watercourses. The latter causes pollution of the water and bed deposits over a quite large distance from the point where the spill takes place (depending on the quantity of substances released), Substances entering the soil will add to the pollution of water as a result of wash-off. Buming of oil and petroleum products causes penetration of benz(a)pyrene and heavy metals (vanadium, nickel, mercury, cadmium, lead) into the air and soil. Experience shows that pollution of the soil by heavy metals with fairly high levels (of the order of several PDK (2)) must occur within a radius of around 5-10 km from the source, in this case the destroyed reservoir. Benz(a)pyrene, which is one of the most powerful carcinogens, can spread over considerable distances. Combustion of petroleum and petroleum products, various polymer formations and other chemical compounds 1s accompanied by the separation of dioxin. Dioxin is a highly toxic substances having terrogenic, mutogenic and cancerogenic effects (LDSO = 0.07 mg/kg in the event of penetration by mouth). Release of dioxin into the air causes subsequent pollution of the soil and water, which ultimately leads to its entering the human organism. Furthermore, the combustion of the above substances causes separation of sulphur, chloride and nitrogen which form acids on combining with air oxygen, water vapour and aerosols. This subsequently causes fallout of acidic residues. Thus, one of the consequences of the air strikes may be high levels of soil and water pollution near to (within a radius of about 5-10 km of) the destroyed or bumt-down installations. Among the most dangerous pollutants which having entered the environment special mention must be made of dioxin, benz(a)pyrene and heavy metals 21