➢ Identify and discuss determinants of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy.

➢ Determinants of Foreign Policy:

1. Size of State Territory:
2. Geographical Factor:
3. Level and Nature of Economic Development:
4. Cultural and Historical Factors:
5. Social Structure:
6. Government Structure:
7. Internal Situation:
8. Values, Talents, Experiences and Personalities of Leaders:
9. Political Accountability:
10. Ideology:
11. Public Opinion:

➢ Objectives and Determinants of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy

According to Lord Parmesan:

“In the International Relations, there is no any permanent friend and enemy but the
preference is given only to the national interest any state form its foreign policy on the base
of National Security and Interest”. Are the elements which generate and determines the
foreign policy and its direction. The main objectives and determinants of the Pakistan’s foreign
policy are discussed as under: -

[1] National Security

[2] Financial Factor
[3] Ideological Factor
[4] Historical and Psychological Factor
[5] Geo-Politics
Indo-Pak
o Politico-Religious difference

Hayderabad, Junagarh and Kashmir

 o Pak-Afghan (same ideology but Durand line conflict through which border was
forced + Terrorism)

Durand Line

o Pakistan at cross roads

Three different geographic regions

▪ Middle east
▪ Central Asia
▪ South Asia

[6] World Order

From multipolarity to bipolarity and vice versa.

During cold war when system was changing from bipolarity to unipolarity Pakistan was
invited to join western blocs and Pakistan did because to increase or maximize Pakistan
security from India it needed that.

➢ 1979 Soviet invasion in Pakistan

General Zia-ul-haq afraid that Russia would need warm water

➢ 1989 With the help of US, gulf and Pakistani sponsored jihadi groups pushed them out
o No national government from 1992 to 1994 besides the struggles of Benazir and
Nawaz
➢ Emergence of Taliban in 1994
➢ 1997: After the emergence of Taliban in 1994, Nawaz Sharif, in his second term of
government, gave recognition to the Taliban regime of Afghanistan in 1997, once the
Taliban gained the control of about ninety percent territory of the country.
➢ 1999: Chief of Army Staff, General Pervez Musharraf, who took over as Chief Executive in
1999 after sacking the civil government of Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan, was confronted to
make a tough policy choice in the post 9/11 scenario; whether Pakistan should remain
aligned with Taliban or should join the international coalition and the US to fight Global
War on Terrorism (GWOT).

Pre 9/11 Post 9/11 pease

Policy: Recognized Taliban Policy: part ways with Policy: Nawaz Sharif
Taliban government in 2015, after
developing consensus
with the US, China and
 Afghanistan decided to
contact Taliban to
facilitate Afghan peace
process under the
auspices of QCG.

➢ The brief history of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations given above reveals that the
Pakistan foreign policy decisions towards Afghanistan (Taliban) have evolved through
various stages.
o three dominating foreign policy decision considerations i.e., political,
economic and security interests.
Phase 1

In 1948 cutoff irrigation water and occupied Kashmir war.

Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5
Determinants

Variable determinants

“Even Handed Treatment”

Stopped military assistance to both countries
Indo-Pakistan Conflict 1965

Pakistan had no ammunition experience

No steel mills or factories to build ammunition or arms
Counter measures by Pakistan

American Subcontinent Objectives

1. Prevention of Russian entrance into subcontinent hot waters through two-week states or
Pakistan as a week state and Anglo-American wanted a united India

In 1962 america wanted a collaboration among india and Pakistan

Then US sees Jammu and Kashmir in a different light
o US wanted a dispute on china and india border because if it resolved china would have a
peace
o India get ammunition, military supplies, economic assistance and vast grain supplies
o India can not oppose china but can not oppose US at the same time
o So Pakistan and india and india and china conflict is more important to US
Two-fold sacrifice for Pakistan
o Pakistan resolution with india … will oppose and anger china
o Pakistan conflict with india…. Is pricey and abhorrent

America’s Ultimate objective to oppose military assistance to china

o To oppose china

Convey indirect message to India and Pakistan

Before 1962 pakistan ahd not very good relations with china but Pakistan admitted
china independence

1962 nehru was against US but ceased to be antagonistic and as for help from US

This altered situation revealed the irreconcilable contradictions between the different
assumptions on which Pakistan and US had built their special relations.

Genuine measure taken by Pakistan to improve relations with china at the expense of USmilitary
assistance
American global objective and options for Pakistan in Sino-Indian Conflict

Implications of each choice

Domestic Sources

Mr. Liaquat Ali Khan Death

Foreign office in president and PM hands

o Initially 1948 zafarullah khan was in hands of british commons wealth and kashmire
issue so it was not handled well
Quality of a foreign minister

Liaquat Progressive Social Policy

Poor turn rich not rich turn richer
Liaquat visit to USA instead of Russia
Because Russia being in Security Council did not helped Kashmir cause in favor of Pakistan

Liaquat about Korea

It would be wrong to start on the presumption that communist China does not want peace

Liaquat policy for peace treaty with Japan should be signed by the peking government
Liaquat Ali khan about commons wealth

Liaquat made history with commons wealth

Liaquat on Kashmir
 Liaquat objective of foreign policy: world peace

Pakistan’s relations with other Muslim countries

Other Contribution of Liaquat

Liaquat and india
International Context
 Evolution of Pakistan foreign policy
Phase 1
Britain diplomatic achievement by keeping india and Pakistan as dominion and under
commonwealth

o Gandhi and Indian national Congress oppose dominion and asked for complete
independence. In 1930 purna sawarj day .. complete Independence Day was celebrated.
o Nehru also opposes
Muslim league stance
In second ww muslim league was sure that they would never get Pakistan against massive
Indian congress so they needed Britain backup
So they quit Indian “quit india” movement

Kashmir security council

Mountbatten played a hand and tried to reconcile india as Dominion and campbell and other
deligation to security council in favor of Kashmir issue resolution
Pakistan wanted
Kashmir
And independent economy because the par value of her rupee was devalued by Britain in
September 1949
Pakistan changed its policy and turned to Russia’s proposal
But Pakistan had weak institutions so

Pakistan turned Republican and stayed in commonwealth 1956

America and Pakistan

Roosevelt perception about Pakistan in 1ww2

On the death of Gandhi US was heartbroken but when Liaquat ali khan assassinated no one
cared
Hot war into cold war 1945 nazism into communism
Emergence of Communism
In 1947 a Marshall plan by Truman was proposed to help Europe turkey and Greece but Russia
walked out and cold war began
When Pakistan was just a few days baby

Emergence of china as communism state

US turned to India
Democratic world organization
Atlantic pact

Nehru and US
Vital and positive foreign policy not negative and neutral
But at night during a press he rolled back and said he did not want any confrontation I east and
west
Liaquat and US

USSR view about Pakistan

 Liaquat favored US for arms and support because of strong neighbors until 1951 when he was
assassinated

Korean war

Pakistan India
5000 tons of wheat Ambulance unit

1950 north korea a USSR satellite cross 38th parallel and launched an attack on south
korea. United Nations called all members for resolution but US declared war on south
korea behalf.

Pakistan in favor of US in a matter of south korea survival

But Liaquat ministers were not happy and aked for something in return but then Liaquat
assassinated and Nazimuddin asked for Kashmir peaceful resolution
Pakistan remained neutral

US was happy because Pakistan was against india

China was happy because Pakistan did not send any troops to korea

US was angry with india because india did not send troops and said there would not had
happened any war if UN accepted china membership

China was happy with india

Japanese peace treaty

Pakistan and India divergent policies in Korean war and Japan treaty
 Phase 2
Second Phase 1954-1962

Alignment with the west

Till 1950 Neutral, independent, isolationism policy,

by Liaquat and jinnah
After 1950 Interdependence policy Nazimuddin to
bogra
In 1953 famine Nazimuddin free food from US

Important

India as communist

US opposes communist because it would overcome every other nations

Second largest Non-communist country Pakistan

Rising of communists in india

Jailed 100,000 sympathizers jailed without trial by government of India

Resurgence of India and china free form US influence

Asian and pacific peace conference in peking’s stalin said that co-existence of capitalism and
communism can exist
Advent of Eisenhower and Dulles

Pakistan Bogra PM
America Eisenhower president and Dulles as
secretary of states
Russia Death of Stalin and Khrushchev to force

Dulles style of Diplomacy as collective security

• After WW2 america and Russia as 2 world powers
• Cold war from1947 turned and imposed on Europe and can turned to hot war
anytime soon with communists revolutions
• Dulles was ridiculed by the campaign of kennedy by involving in ido-china
and Korean war but in fact that was started by Truman.
• in September of 1954, the United States, France, Great Britain, New Zealand,
Australia, the Philippines, Thailand and Pakistan formed the Southeast Asia
Treaty Organization, or SEATO. SEATO Meeting in Manila. The purpose of
the organization was to prevent communism from gaining ground in the
region

National interest is not partisan matter and

Foreign policy is not either

American policy amalgamation

Secretary Rusk called for collective security in Vietnam when south Vietnam
abandoned because of American public protests

Dulles opposes nehru thoughts in a sense of

Nehru against collective security followed Gandhi

Zafarullah and dulles friendships on the basis of collective security

Stalin considered the far east is the road to victory over west

Therefore collective security

Pakistan and india relations with the US was based on wheat assisstance

US wanted china to censored in UN as an aggressor towards korea but india did not agreed

East affair sub-committee for consideration.

China gave rice and Russia wheat one million each

1953 famine prevention

Nazim and dullas called turkey and Pakistan as strong bulwarks

Like in Afghanistan a game played by US before against communism

Turco-Pakistan and US-Pakistan mutual defense assistance agreement

No US military bases in Pakistan

Turkish-Pakistani Communique
India ki bezati fuck you india

In 1965 Indo-Pak war Pakistan used American arms provided on the conditions to
use against aggressor not as an aggressor

The Manila Pact

Korean war started in 1950

Ended in 1953

Vietnam war started in 1954

 Most Immediate Concern

Pakistan was concerned about SEATO because SEATO will not provide assistance to Pakistan
if india attack her.

Under article 4 paragraph 1, US mentioned only communist aggression

Zafarullah replied: “All aggression is evil”.

 • Australia and New Zealand conflict with Indonesia which was non-communist
country. Conflict was over new Guinea
• Pakistan had no gain
• As well as Australia and new Zealand also told that they are not bounded by SEATO
to take military action against any commonwealth country
• Pakistan attended manila conference without commitment
• 1955 According to mutual agreement of assistance if Pakistan did not signed manila
then US will ot supply arms to Pakistan
• Therefore asked to ratified
• In 1956 feroze khan noor asked to apply in NATO, according to which attack on one
member will be the attack on all.
• In 1958 asked to build SEATO on NATO lines

In 1959 Sino-Indian border conflict eruption

In 1960 Ayub khan asked that Pakistan carryout its responsibility as a member of SEATO.

1962-1963 US as a sheet-anchor of Pakistan foreign policy

Baghdad Pact The Colombo Conference The Asia African Conference
At Bandung

Russian policy: • In 1954, France gave Indo- • In 1954 when indonesian ali premier asked for
Expansion of Russia towards south to Caspian and black seas and into central china complete freedom afro African conference for peace and co
asia. and in communique asked operation to end racism and colonialism.
Ancient muslims brought Russia to the gateways of Afghanistan. for ceasefire • The problems were who to invite.
• Efforts of bogra and • Pakistan was successful in opposing india and
Kotelawala in end of Burma stance upon inviting Israel.
colonialism and • Pakistan as pro west
communism.
After ww2 • India: bogra was against
Middle east oil production increased communism and
Iran and Egypt quarrels with Britain over suez colonialism and as a twin
Arabs were busy with Israel no time for soviet evil
• 1954 Britain abandoned suez because 193o treaty of Anglo-Iraqi treaty • Pakistan: Nehru was against
about to finish. colonialism but communism
• 1954 mutual defense assistance between Iraq and USA considered as ideology
• Iraqi prpemier asked to increased collective security agreement • Bogra neutralize the Indian
• 1955 Baghdad Pact : Mutual Cooperation: Iraq turkey Britain Pakistan policy about the agreement
and iran between china, US, UK,
• 1958: Iraq revolutions and headquarter shift to Ankara USSR for non-intervention
• 1959 iraq relinquished its membership policies which will definetly
• Name of traty changed to Central Organization fan the fire of communism.
• As a chief sponsor of the pact US never signed formally •
• Israel was against arab so US did not want to indulge in any of that
 China and Pakistan friendship began
Both began to understand each other

• Pakistan asked for protection against india and when US joined

Baghdad pact military committee clearly stated that he just
wanted in for the communism and carries no connotation in intra
areas matter.

• In 1958 Feroze khan noon said that Baghdad pact should be like
NATO. Aggression against one is aggression against all.
• In 1959 :Ayub khan with iran was successful in calling a general
staff meeting of military to creat CENTO on NATO lines but Britain,
US and Turkey shows resistance
All three muslim members of CENTO moves towards Russia
Iran: Did not supported against United Arab Republics
Turkey: Western allies did not collaborate on matter of Cyprus with Greece
Pakistan: US sold weapons to India
But all of these together made a parallel organization:
Regional Cooperation for Development

Opening doors for soviets: Planting Israel in ME lands and the continuing
support of US
The Suez Crisis The crisis in Hungary Crisis in Middle East

In 1956: Egypt nationalization of suez canal Chou En-lai and suharwardi differe in USSR ➢ Soviet became hero in arab and popularity increased
Egypt was threatened by Britain and France by western protégé in against hungary as its their internal affiars ➢ Anti-imperialism increased
ME, Israel ➢ 1958
➢ Revolution in Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan
Suez canal for Pakistan: (1) Not to offend UK and US Pakistan waited for hungary election so that
(2) Exports: 56% and imports: 49% was carried through suez canal kashmire would have its elections
Public opinion: In favor of egypt
Government opinion: against Egypt
1954 british out of suez and in
1955 on river niel there has ti built a DAM with US and UK share
US backed down so did the UK and week later Egypt nationalize the Pro-western
canal ➢ Jordan ➢ Syria
British and France threatened because 50% of the oil was passed ➢ Iraq (many ➢ Egypt
through that route believed that United arab republic
USSR armed Naseer revolution in Iraq
French position in Algeria was compromised will bring end to
Three powers also called conference of twenty four nations from Baghdad pact)
which Egypt and Greece did not attend Arab union
Pakistan also proposed some amendments Saudia with them

Pakistan will be protected by US according to London

declaration.
 Again against india

• In 1954: Algerian war started

“the restoration of collective colonialism

Western powers asked for users association in which they control

suez but pay Egypt appropriately
Second conference of user association met but unsuccessful
France and Britain go to security council but Russia vetoed
➢ Israel had launched an attack on Egypt to eliminate fedayeen
bases
➢ US immediately went to security council and called for UN to
refrain from force
➢ But Britain and France vetoed
➢ At twelve hour notice asked to bring back the forces but no one
did that and France and Britain attack on Egypt
➢ Pakistan at the end of suez crisis:
PM Ch. M. Ali said Egypt has right to nationalize canal
PK FM said “was an exercise of her sovereignty”
PK support of Egypt over sovereignty
Change in government in PK
PK decline Users’ Association
History repeated itself

Demonstration in PK started
➢ Expulsion of PK from commonwealth
➢ Expulsion of britain from Baghdad pact
➢ French Consulate windows smashed
➢ British information service offices burnt down
➢ First time PK and India on the same page
Pakistan initiative

Suharwardy Refused to bow before public agitation

The U-2 Other questions Laotian Crisis
Incident ➢ Chinese occupied Tibet in 1950 ➢ 1960 fresh crisis
➢ 1960, may 1, Auyub also threatened about ww to ➢ But protests occurs in Lhasa in 1959 ➢ Auyb asked to sent the armed contingent
Russia ➢ Pakistan remained neutral when china occupied if SEATO decided to intervene in Laos
Tibet.
➢ Pakistan, US, UK and India remain absent
Representation of China in UN The Question of 2 The cost of Tension with Saudi Tension with Afghanistan
chinas alliance arabia
➢ Saudi In 1955: afghaistan was
Bogra favored 2 china arabia against the military
Formosa as well embassy in assistance of paksitan by
But ayub asked to Pakistan US, because of
accommodate took the pakhtunistan
1959 furin haj mission Suharwardy was unusual
delegation from harsh to Egypt urge to ask West Pakistan as
Taiwan to Makkah but he was right pak to step administrative unit
was stayed in karachi back from Attack on Pakistani
and received by FM of pact. embassy in Kabul
pk inspite of severe ➢ In 1956
protests. when
PK was in the favor of nehru
two chinas visited
capital of
Saudi Russia was in Afghanistan
arabia he favor of pakhtunistan
was
greeted
 with … and In 1956 pak-afghan issues
Pakistani settled during mirza
objected Iskandar visit to Kabul
➢ Which ➢ Transit trade
further agreement
made ➢ Direct-radio
problems telephone link was
established
➢ During ayub khan
period he wanted
to maintain good
relations with
Afghanistan but at
the same time a
stron administrated
pakhtun
➢ Propaganda against
PK
➢ 1960 lashkar
estimated to be
15,000 men
penetrated into
Pakistani territory
near bajur but
repulsed by heavy
losses
➢ 1961 Afghanistan
retaliated by
serving diplomatic
relations with PK by
closing borders.
➢ Ended in 1963 with
the the resignation
of Daud cousin of
king zahir khan
Relations with Soviet Union Relations with china
PK as military bases at the disposal of US In 1955 russia visit to india angered PK
1954 russian economic assistance to india and Afghanistan But in 1956 china visit to both
1955 russian iron and steel mill at bhilai In 1954 india recognized Tibet as a region of china
1956 russian premier asked for good relations with pak at sirinagar In 1954 china was not so happy with SEATO but wanted co-existence with
fellow asia citizens
Sino-Indian relationships were at highest peak
Bhai Bhai
1954 Chou En-lai’s parting message to Ambassador Raza

In 1956 russia deputy sovier premier led a 40 men delegation to karachi on newly framed
constitution

Bogra and suharwardi paid visit to china

But offer turned down from Pakistan due to Kashmir

1957 sputnik 1
1958 pk lean towards russiadue to US
Foreign policy strained
1960 U-2 spy plane from Peshawar to Russia
1961 pakistan soviet agreement
Loan of $30 million
Technical assistance
Equipment for exploration of oil
The ice was broken

1957 suharwardy visit to America made so much speeches abput pro-

american and denied that visit to china has not altered its foreign policy
Ayub era
1959
1960
Relation with China Relations with Soviet union
➢ 1965 pak china bhai bhai ➢ Yahaya visit to Russia 1970
➢ 1966: MIGs and tanks china gave to pak ➢ 10 year peaceful agreement of atomic energy
➢ Liu shao chi and chen yi ➢ Gwadur port assistance
➢ Mujahidana dosti ➢ Thermal power station
➢ Rumors by india that pakistanhas not talked about Vietnam so Ayub johnson ➢ USSR wanted Pakistan to get away with west and overdependence
communique helped settled this issue and US satisfied on china
➢ Bhutto sick leave 1966 arouse the suspicion that foreign policy will change and after ➢ Sino-Indian war of 1962and came to conclusion that india and
2 days US resumed economic aid for Pakistan and india Pakistani together should face china together
➢ Communist and workers party of Russia thought about having a
collective security of Asia
 ➢ USSR suggested “Constructive Co-operation” between pak, afg,
india, iran to turn eyes from Kashmir:
➢ Two reasons
1. India and Pakistan are unresolved issues
Balance between China and US restored beuase of the FM M. Shoaib who was pro American 2. It is urealistic to make a cooperation in aisa against china
and former FM Bhutto who was pro-chinese Asked Indra Gandhi to solve Farakka Barrage water dispute with pak on the
issue of the Indus waters treaty 1960
PAK was walking on a triangular tight rope ➢ World bank and Russia mediated
But due to Pakistani inclination towards Russia India was a better choice for
PAK-China relations are corner stone FP Russia and in a conference in Lok sabah Indian FM told that Russia will not
supply anymore military hardware to Pakistan

Pak considers Taiwan as a part of china

Loan
Silk road opened in 1969 which closed in 1949

Relation with USA The Arab-Israel war of 1967

After the cease fire indo-pak war Ayub khan and shastri invited to white house ➢ 1967
➢ 1966 The flow of US economic aid to pak and india resumed ➢ 6 day of war
➢ But the defence secretary disclosed that aid in not reinstituted but the non-lethal ➢ Pak has chance to show his solidarity with
military weapons muslim causes
➢ Bulldozers, spare parts of trucks
➢ 1967 decided not to resume “Grant military assistance ” USA, Israel:
➢ India was increasing the military production at home butu paksitan had the only Syria ccupied all
military source the US amd of sina,
➢ Nixon assured a strong friendship with Pakistan 1969 Jordan the Gaza
➢ In 1970 pakistani military assistance strip, sea
of Galilee,
Jerusalem,
all of
Jordan
west of
Jordan
river
 ➢ India allegation on US that it has distorted the balance of power and US replied
that they gave pakistan the old due package that was “Small packet” while india is ➢ Cease fire by security council
getting enormous supply form Russia ➢ British draft was eppresented in security
➢ PAksiatn foreign investments and private interprise raised to 95.7% council which became the basic resolution of
➢ India asked US ot to interven in Indo-Pak political settlement of the ME crisis

➢ Invalid measures by Israel to change the

status of Jerusalem
➢ Indra Gandhi supported arabs but not that
much
➢

Other developments
The First Islamic Summit conference and the first and second Islamic conference of foreign
ministers
➢ 1969 extensive damage by arson had been caused to Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem 1969 after the death of Naseer his successor sadat was good mean
which was under military occupation of Israel 1970 usa
➢ Palestine liberation organization (PLO) as also invited but iran and turkey protested Indonesia relations softened with india and Malaysia after the fell of power of
➢ Declaration of conference: 1967 war occupied territories by Israel should be Soekarno
liberated
➢ India was not invited to RABAT

Pakistani stance on Indian contribution to summit

1. Not Indian government but delegation of muslims community in india Iran will help Pakistan in every possible way 1967 conflict broke out between
2. And if the criterion for participation was to be changed by including india then other india and pak
muslim majority countries like china, russia ang ghana asked to send their
representatives
3. Turkey, iran and Jordan stand by Pakistan to boycott the proceedings
4. Ultimately india out
 Malaysia criticized KAshmire issue in favor of Pakistan as well as the creation
of Pakistan on Islamic ideology

Islamic bank
Islamic international news Agency
Creation and reinforcement of Islamic cultural centers
And drafting a charter for the Islamic conference
1965, 1968, 1969 UN for Pakhtoonistan

Rabat Declaration called for Israel withdrawal but did not imposed any sanctions and
economic boycott
➢ End of Indo-Pak war imbalance in PK new policy “Bilateralism”
➢ China helped PK than US and USSR
➢ Honest broker at Tashkant
➢ But china was giving military assistance to india only
➢ American communication base or intelligence based in pk does not help Pakistani cause in relation with Russia
➢ 1965 Ayub failed to happy all of three
➢ 1968 pakistani FM Arshad Hussain clearly stated that Pakistan will only an observer in SEATO and CENTO and would not take any part in military sides
➢ From 1965 to 1967 at arab Israel war Pakistan on arab side and RCD was going smooth
➢ 1969 at RABAT Pakistan kicked out INDIA from muslim conference
➢ But at 1970 yahya khan paid visits to all three
➢ Auyb domestic failure but foreifn policy of bilateralism was successful and carried out by yahya khan
➢ Yahya same principle but in different fashion
➢ Yahya was commenting on Regional self help
Stalemate with India Development inside Kashmire
➢ 1966 ➢ 1965 cesfire in Kashmir
➢ IndoPAksiatn conference ➢ 1967 elections in Kashmir but
different

➢ 1968
Lifted state of emergency which was
imposed on 1962 in skirmishes with china
 ➢ 1968 convention first Kashmir
Srinagar for solution : independence
➢ 1970
Accession to Pak and independence
1970 2nd Kashmir convention
➢ 1971 Pakistan victory over india in
Asian hockey game celebrated by
Kashmiri
➢ And high jacking of an Indian plane to
Lahore by two members of the
Kashmir liberation Front
➢

The farakka barrage Need for Indo-Pakistani How to resolve Indo- Has Pakistan foreign
conflict Conciliation Pakistani Disputes policy being successful
➢ 1951 started 1. First seven years
➢ Heightened remarkable
1960s ➢ 1950-1951 scares
➢ 1968 to 1970 of india war and
secretary level start finfidng
negotiations friends USA was
➢ the best choice
 most powerful
give money
attractive than
USSR
➢ 1963 Indo-PAK
talks on Kashmir
➢ 1965 war indo-
pak china showed
that he is with pak
and

2. Special
relationship with
muslim world
➢ At first
painful
➢ In war
with india
all
supported
except
Malaysia

Summary
1 2 3 4 5

Three developemnts occur

Convergent effect
1) Formation of UN
2) Emancipation of china
3) Liquidation of western
colonialism

According to Bhutto:
Human diversity in the
woking of International
affairs would be denied
➢ The relationships
between global power
and weak country can
not be equal
6 7 8 9 10 11
Bhutto inherited a demoralized country

Raison d’etre or future

In loss of east Pakistan

1972 indra Gandhi said to rlease 93000 pakistani POWs

1973 a good opportunity arab-israel war

1974 pakistan went to Dacca and Mujeeb ur rehman came to Lahore

1974 summit for mulsims

Pakistan labor force
1973 Afghanistan became more enemy than India

PPP faialed to secure NPWF

Bhutto banned NAP and prisoned wali khan and ghafar khan

Then Afghanistan agreed to make negotiations after their release and uplift of ban

Afghan were marching to Peshawar 1971 during Indo-pak warit was only soviet that helped

1974, Bhutto was concerned

Quasi insurgency in balushistan

Above Iran

1974 indian atomic bomb experiment

But indo pak relations smooth

Irana and india relations for oil and atomic know how

1975 trade agreement signed

1973 oil crisis

Due to Israel Saudi cut off supply of oil to west

By late 1960s ayub focused ob bilateralism but bilateralism pushing Pakistan to non-alignment

Because india was the ideologue of nonaligned movement

And Pakistan non aligned movement was moving bcz of Bhutto

And it has potential to face great powers because bilateral is not helpful to equalize global powers and weak nations

Bhutto considered non aligned movements as multi aligned movements

Dulles and Bhutto considered non aligned movements as immoral and soviet was a socialist and try to impose non aligned movement

Considered as socialist countries are best consummated with non aligned movement

Sterile and static non alignment as nehru played

Non alignement does not harm non alignment countries because if it did so it would be difficult or severe to maintain relationships with NATO and WARSAW pact countries

Pakistan joined non-alignment movement in 1979

For

1) Foreign policy development

2) Renewal of PAK and US connections
Pakistan Foreign policy for Afghanistan Taliban

1996 to 2015

1) Extending recognition to Afghan Taliban Regime in May 1997;

2) Parting ways with Afghan Taliban in October 2001, after 9/11 incident in USA; and

3) Joining Quadrilateral Coordination Group for Afghan peace process in December 2015.

Afghan Unity Government: A collation Government formed on the behest of US as a result of no clear majority to any party in Afghanistan general elections 2014. New
government could choose to understate the current vulnerability of Afghanistan‟s foreign relationships with its allies, including the U.S., or simply ignore it. Afghan Interim
Government: This is the provisional list of the 30-member interim administration for Afghanistan which was approved on December 5, 2001 by four Afghan delegations
meeting near Bonn, Germany. Al-Qaeda: Translation: "The Base" "The Foundation" or "The Fundamental" is a militant Sunni Islamist multi-national organization founded in
1988 by Osama bin Laden, Abdullah Azzam, and several other Arab volunteers who fought against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s. Afghanistan Pakistan Transit
Trade Agreement: The Afghanistan–Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (also known as APTTA) is a bilateral trade agreement signed in 2010 by Pakistan and Afghanistan that
calls for greater facilitation in the movement of goods amongst the two countries. Bureaucratic Politics Model: Bureaucratic politics theories or explanations of why particular
public policy decisions got made the way they did stress the motivation by the relevant officials in the government bureaucracy to protect or promote their own agency's
special interests (in competition with other agencies) as a major motivating factor in shaping the timing and the content of government decisions. Bureaucracy: It refers to
both a body of non-elective government officials and an administrative policy-making group. Chief Executive: It is the position of the most senior corporate officer, executive,
leader or administrator in charge of managing an organization, especially an independent legal entity such as a company or non-profit institution. In 1999 as a result of military
coup General Pervez Musharraf took over the government and adopted for himself the title of “Chief Executive” instead of being called Chief Marital Law Administrator. Civil
Establishment: Civil Structure and various organizations in a government setup having legitimacy to perform their role for the betterment of the state affairs and community
wellbeing. Coalition Support Fund: Pakistan receives foreign aid from several countries and international organizations for its extended facilities and cooperation towards
global war on terrorism being fought in Afghanistan since 2001. Since the start of the War in Afghanistan, the majority of the aid comes from the United States via the Coalition
Support Fund which is reimbursed to Pakistan for counter-terrorism operations. xvii Decision Equilibrium: A state reached at by the competing decision players for achieving
best policy option through accommodating the competing preferences. Decision Game: it is an exercise in which one presents other with a scenario, asks them to take on the
role of a character in that scenario, and then asks them to solve problems as if they were that character. Durand Line: The 2,450 km border between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The Durand Line was established in 1893 and is named after Sir Mortimer Durand, The foreign secretary of the British-India Government. Decision Process: It is the process
of making choices by identifying a decision, gathering information, and assessing alternative resolutions. Doha Afghan Peace Process: Qatar played a major role in facilitating
peace talks between Afghan officials and the Taliban by opening an office for the group in Doha in 2013. Participants included Americans, Afghans and Taliban. Economic
Concerns: The fundamental economic problem faced by human society and business operators is how to allocate scarce resources to the provision of various goods and
services within the economy. Pakistan economic concern with reference to Afghanistan revolves around attaining trade access to Central Asian States and uninterrupted gas
supply from Turkmenistan via gas pipe line through Afghanistan. Establishment: It generally denotes a dominant group or elite that holds power or authority in a nation or
organization. Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA): It is a semi-autonomous tribal region in northwestern Pakistan, consisting of seven tribal agencies (districts) and six
frontier regions, and are directly governed by Pakistan's federal government through a special set of laws called the Frontier Crimes Regulations. Since May 31, 2018, FATA
has been officially merged with Khyber Pukhtunkhwa (KPK). Geneva Accords: The Geneva Accords, known formally as the agreements on the settlement of the situation
relating to Afghanistan with regard to withdrawal to soviet troops who invaded Afghanistan in 1979, were signed on 14 April 1988 at the Geneva Headquarters of the United
Nations, between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with the United States and the Soviet Union serving as guarantors. Haqqani Network: The Haqqani network is an Afghan guerilla
insurgent group using asymmetric warfare to fight against US-led NATO forces and the government of Afghanistan. High Peace Council: The Afghanistan High Peace Council
(HPC) is a body of the Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Program, established by Hamid Karzai to negotiate with elements of the Taliban. xviii Inter Services Intelligence
(ISI): The premier intelligence agency of Pakistan, operationally responsible for gathering, processing, and analyzing national security information from around the world.
Interference: The term interference means to intrude, to force, to impede and to encumber others in their personal matters, and progress. Jihad: The Arabic word "jihad" is
often translated as "holy war," but in a purely linguistic sense, the word "jihad" means struggling or striving. Jihadi or Jihadist: It refers to a person who believes that an Islamic
state governing the entire community of Muslims must be created and that this necessity justifies violent conflict with those who stand in its way. Localitus: It implies to a
state where a country‟s diplomats in other countries start talking on some issue, the same as per the local stance of the host government. Such diplomats are termed or
labeled as localitus in diplomatic community. Loya Jirga: In the Pashtunwali, a code of laws of the Pashtun peoples living in areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan and neighboring
countries. Military Establishment: Armed Forces organizational Structure and potential to perform security role against the internal as well as external threat. They have a
role also towards the internal stability of a country particularly in third world countries. In foreign policy decisions major representation comes from the lead intelligence
agency. Mullah: It is the name given to teachers or scholars of Islamic learning or the leaders of mosques. Northern Alliance: Also known as the United Islamic Front for
Salvation of Afghanistan (UIFSA) was a coalition of militias seeking to topple the rule of the Taliban throughout Afghanistan. Organizational Behavior Model: A discipline is an
accepted science that is based upon theoretical foundation, whereas OB is an inter-disciplinary approach where knowledge from different disciplines like psychology,
sociology, anthropology, etc. are included. It is used to solve organizational problems, especially those related to human beings. Operation Enduring Freedom: It began on 7
October 2001 in Afghanistan by the US, four weeks after the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks on America. Pakistan’s Interest in Afghanistan: Explaining six particular
factors which are vital to Pakistan's policy calculations in Afghanistan those are mitigation of Indian xix influence, economic interests, the Durand Line dispute, Balochistan
secessionist movement, the issue of „Pashtunistan‟ and trade route to CARs. Pakistan National Alliance: It constituted of nine religious and political parties. It was formed in
1977 in which the alliances agreed to run as a single bloc to overthrow the rule of Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. Foreign Policy Prism: An approach to build foreign
relationship to secure national interests of a country. This serves as a lens to calibrate policy response and determining other inter-state relationship activities. Quadrilateral
Coordination Group: On February 6, 2016, the Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) was formed. It consists of the US, Pakistan, Afghanistan and China to pursue peace
with Afghan Taliban. It held six round table talks to discuss the Afghan-led peace and reconciliation efforts by the stake holders, less Taliban. Quetta Shura: The Quetta Shura
is a militant organization which is composed of the leaders of the Afghan Taliban, and believed to be based, since 2001, within the city of Quetta in the Balochistan province
of Pakistan. Rational Actor Model: The rational actor model is a linchpin of Foreign Policy Decision Making (FPDM). Paul MacDonald (2003, 551) contends that many see it “as
the most plausible candidate for a universal theory of political and social behavior, whose simple and intuitively plausible assumptions hold the promise of unifying the diverse
subfields of political science. Security Concerns: Someone or something that is a risk to safety. Shura: The process of decision-making by consultation and deliberation. Taliban:
The Taliban in Afghanistan are the activists who were accused of providing a sanctuary to Osama Bin Laden and the al-Qaeda movement who were blamed for the 9/11attacks
in the US. Tora Bora Mahaz: It is a militant group operating in Nangarhar Province, Afghanistan. Tahrik-e-Taliban Pakistan: It is an Islamic extremist organization seeking to
overthrow Pakistan's government and expel US forces from Afghanistan. Yellow Force: Reportedly it is the code name of American special group which is expert and equipped
for taking out nuclear weapons or neutralizing these weapons or disposing it off after taking out from the storage. In 2002, the US was reported to have stationed this
component of force in Afghanistan with its futuristic employment either towards Pakistan or Iran.
 ➢ The nation-state system in the world is composed of subsystem of nations which interact among themselves for securing respective national interests.
➢ Taliban in 1994. Taliban emerged in Pashtun belt of eastern 3 Afghanistan and ruled the war-torn country from 1996 to 2001.
➢ The foreign policy decisions towards Taliban from 1996 to 2016 emerged after having passed through the process of bureaucratic politics amongst various decisional
actors in a 'realist paradigm.'
➢ Bureaucratic Model (Pulling and hauling): In the processes, as the study proceeds, focus is to identify the role played by bureaucrats to come up with the decision
outcomes which can be termed as “resultants.” This study attempts to explore the pulling and hauling indulged in by the decision-making players to get their viewpoint
impact the final decision and how, eventually, the divergent views are accommodated or otherwise towards an “aggregated” final policy decision.

1996-2001 2001-2015 2015-2018

The Taliban of 1996 were a group of Islamists, can be he Taliban in the post 9/11 era are new Taliban with Quadrilateral Cooperation Group
called pure and simple, controlled by central authority. their leadership in hiding as their activities are After 9/11, it did a volte face in joining the coalition
controlled by local operational commanders. Gretchen against the Taliban. A 29 Gretchen Peters, Seeds of
1998-1999 and 2013-2018 Nawaz Sharif Peters in his book, Seeds of Terror: The Taliban, The ISI Terror- The Taliban, The ISI and the New Opium War,
FM: Sartaj Aziz and the New Opium War (2009)29 maintains that given (New Delhi: Hachette Book Publishing India, 2009). 19
the challenge of fighting in a large swath spreading over few years later, Pakistan was again wooing Taliban on
Book of Sartaj Aziz: south and eastern Afghanistan, the fighting soldiers are behalf of US and China to join the dialogue as a means
Between Dreams and Realities, Some Milestones in more loyal to the local commanders, though still to peace. Pakistan‟s joining the QCG was an indirect
Pakistan History (2011) operating under the umbrella of Taliban and in some admission that Pakistan had some influence on Taliban
0 covers the political history and major foreign policy cases, the local commanders do not hesitate to indulge despite the volte face it did in 9/11. In a span of 20
issues from 1988 to 2011. in the practices such as opium business, extortion, years, the calibration of national interest when it came
1) taking input from army kidnapping to muster the resources for perpetuating to Taliban has undergone such radical shifts. To better
2) The Foreign Office then puts up the proposed their fighting and ensure their survival. This is the understand the way this challenge has been handled by
policy guidelines to the Prime Minister for reason that many Afghan officials maintain that even Pakistan, we need to critically understand the dynamics
approval the disappearance of Taliban Shura from Quetta of foreign policy making in Pakistan in the recent past.
3) Aware of the fact that the current institutional (Pakistan), they cannot be sure that Afghanistan was
arrangements were not functioning very well, closer to ending the Afghan insurgency.
he proposes to establish a new organ in the Taliban is amplified by the fact that throughout 2002,
federal government with the name of Cabinet the US had just 4500 troops dedicated to punish Afghan
Committee of Defense and National Security to Taliban that too all stationed at Kabul, the capital.
replace the existing Defense Cabinet . This accusation and presumption of the „control‟ of
Committee of Defense: entrusted with the Pakistan over Taliban have produced the greatest
responsibility of narrowing down the gap pressure on Pakistan‟s foreign policy making and
between perceptions of the army choices.
establishment and civil leadership on security Pakistan was one of the first amongst a total of only
issues gradually leading to a national consensus three countries, which recognized the Taliban regime in
on different aspects of national security 1997 against an international pressure of not doing so.
4) “The Afghan policy Pakistan pursued between
1980 and 2000 has not been, it now seems in
 retrospect, a great success. For him, its
negative fallout far exceeds any positive
economic gains Pakistan may have achieved in
1980s.”
5) overbearing influence of military establishment
towards PakAfghan foreign policy prescriptions
but he does not spell out as to how the civil and
military bureaucrats compete among
themselves to finalize any policy alternative.
Javid Hussain in his work, The Process of Foreign Policy
Formulation in Pakistan (2004)
1) input from the Parliament and its Standing
Committees on the process of foreign policy
formulation
2) an important facet of the foreign policy making
in Pakistan, while asserting that the public
representatives in Pakistan do not play a
proactive role in foreign policy decision inputs
as provided for in the Constitution of Pakistan
Khawar Hussain in his work, Pakistan’s Afghanistan
Policy (2005)
1) Pakistan‟s prime foreign policy driver remains
securing security interests through a friendly
government in Kabul
Abdul Sattar in Pakistan Foreign Policy 1947-2012
(2013)
[1] maintains that though Pakistan recognized
Taliban in 1997 but had little control over them.
[2] In the post 9/11 environment in 2001, Pakistan
decided to withdraw its support to Taliban and
joined the global war on terrorism
[3] After having calls from the US, General Pervez
Musharraf started interactive sessions with
political parties, intelligentsia, media, Ulema
(religious leaders) on the issue of withdrawing Hussain Haqqani in his book, Magnificent Delusions
Taliban support.
[4] Some 90 percent opinion of these people was
in step with Gen Musharraf
➢ Pakistan Army Chief, General Kayani gave
Obama a thirteen page paper, addressing the
outstanding strategic issues between Pakistan
and US.
➢ The paper was codenamed “3.0”
o “Kayani asserted that the US was not
going to win the war as it could not
transform Afghanistan and like many
other empires
o which failed earlier, this time also, the
Afghan land will also brutally take the
US to the brink of failure.
o He advised the Americans to stop
developing great plans and get
practical, sit down and sit with Pakistan
to discuss as how they would leave and
what will be the desirable end state,
with which both Pakistan and US live
with.”
o General Kayani was suggesting to the
Americans to take strategic decisions
which could result in a favorable action
for them in Afghanistan. Obama
however refrained from making the
strategic decision, including the
decision to work with Pakistan and now
is accused of merely making
announcements for the public opinion
satisfaction. Such has been the
difficulty of the Afghan imbroglio,
when the US wanted to influence
Afghanistan against the Soviets in
1980s, the only option available was to
work with General Zia of Pakistan
(2013)36
➢ Taliban, under Mullah Umar, emerged in
August 1994 from Kandahar which was one of
[5] In terms of formal processes “yes-but”
approach was recommended by the Foreign
Office in a view to safeguard Pakistan‟s
geostrategic interests.
[6] In the following years, Pakistan has been
supporting all peace initiatives in Afghanistan
while maintaining its stance that these
initiatives should be Afghan-led and
Afghanowned.
[7] The Americans make an ineluctable part of this
triangle i.e., Taliban-Pakistan-US or the
quadrangle if we include the Afghan
Government in it
Crisis in Washington:
[1] The American foreign policy establishment in
itself has been struggling to pursue its foreign
policy aims in Afghanistan. Obama
Administration (in particular Hillary Clinton and
Hallbroke) had to fight to have their voices
heard. Vali Nasr in his book, The Dispensable
Nation: American Foreign Policy in Retreat
(2013)34 mentions that there has been an
imbalance between military intelligence
complex and foreign policy establishment in
Washington
[2] While reviewing critical foreign policy critical
issues, Obama spent many months considering
all relevant information with all concerned
before the „surge‟ i.e., sending additional
33,000 troops to Afghanistan. During these Ahmed Rashid in his book Taliban: The Power of
discussions, little attempt was made to restore Militant Islam in Afghanistan and Beyond (2017)
diplomatic primacy for having foreign policy
decisions.
[3] Obama focused on empirical not on restore
diplomatic efforts
[4]
the Pashtun dominant provinces in
Afghanistan.
➢ discusses the dynamics of US tackling Pakistan
leadership from Gen Zia to President Zardari.
General Zia was offered $400 million aid
package to act as frontline state after the Soviet
invasion but this offer was turned down by
General Zia considering it as a “peanut.”
➢ ” In June 1981, $3.2 billion military and
economic aid was given and General Zia
negotiated an agreement with the US that
Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) will
have the operational control of Jihadis
(fighters) in Afghanistan. Eventually, the
Soviets were forced to leave Afghanistan in
1989.
➢ 1997: By the end of May 1997, Mazar-e-Sharif
fell to Taliban. Major reasons for success of
Taliban were the war-weariness of Afghan
population. They longed for the restoration of
peace and the semblance of an honest
administration, no matter how harsh its system
of justice was.
➢ Meanwhile, ex-jihadi foreign elements had
regrouped in Afghanistan under Osama Bin
Laden to fight the excesses against Muslims in
the world. Al-Qaeda resorted to bombings in
different cities including the major cities of
Europe, culminating in the 9/11 attacks.
➢ t “Pakistan‟s Afghan policy was in doldrums.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991,
successive Pakistani governments were
desperately keen to open direct land route for
trade with the Central Asian States. The major
hindrance was the continuing civil war in
 Afghanistan. Pakistan policy makers were thus
faced with strategic dilemma i.e. “either
continue supporting Hikmatyar (Pashtun) ex-
jihadi leader or urge for a power sharing
between all Afghan factions for a stable
government.”

Theoretical Framework

By the end of the World War II, the first coherent approach of the discipline of International Relations and the field of foreign policy analysis came into existence with the
realization that “all that occurs between nations and across nations is grounded in human decision makers acting singly or in groups.”

K.J Holsti defined the concept of foreign policy as “decision that determines the country‟s objectives externally from act and actions taken to implement the decisions.”

By all definitions, a foreign policy is based on the decision-making process to reach at a particular policy option. The individuals who form part of various decision-making
actors are politicians, bureaucrats and interest groups.

“Decision process is the selection of a particular alternative from a range of alternatives in order to achieve certain purpose by those in power in the institutions of society.”5
..\Basharat Ali_IR_2020_QAU_PRR.pdf
V
 Shah Raza
1977:
Pehlavi‟s exit
in a military coup in 1977
Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was from Iran sent
[1] Communist overthrown by Gen. Zia
worrying
implement in
signals to the
Afghanistan
[2] Red Army in US
Afghanistan in
December 1979

Red Army in Afghanistan

General

Zia

Ul India, the arch rival of Pakistan was also

Another evolving situation was the
Islamic revolution in Iran under
Ayatollah Khomeini
watching the developing situation
Haq
closely. “Afghanistan invasion by the
Soviets had a soothing feeling for India
as they thought of Pakistan was being
exposed on a dual front i.e. Soviets on
western and Indians on eastern
borders.”
Pakistan in circumstances on soviet invasion of Afghanistan
➢ “After Symington Amendment to US Foreign Assistance Act 1961, the
grants and loans from financial institutions were stopped for Pakistan
➢ In April 1979, President Carter imposed unilateral economic and military
sanctions on Pakistan on its suspected efforts to build nuclear capability
for making an atom bomb.
➢ These sanctions were lifted by President Reagan in December 1979 to
enable the US administration to provide assistance to Pakistan to
coordinate the Afghan fighting effort against Soviets invasion of
Afghanistan.”
➢ “US president Jimmy Carter offered only a modest support to Pakistan.
US offer of $400 million for 18 months to Pakistan was termed as
“peanuts” by General Zia-ulHaq.”
➢ “Pakistan was receiving huge influx of Afghan refugees as a result of the
Soviet invasion in Afghanistan. Pakistan had provided asylum to 386,916
Afghan displaced people by early 1980.”
Unitary and organizational
 Foreign office then

Musharruff against unitary

MPFA helf meeting with QCG
Nuclearization of Pakistan: Motivations and Intentions
➢ 1988 : Pakistan conducted six thermonuclear tests in response to five
Indian nuclear tests in 1998. There existed an interplay of various actors at
the external and the internal level which enabled Pakistan to reach the
decision to detonate.
➢ a driving force for Pakistan to make the decision to go nuclear. In order to
identify these intentions, this thesis applies the national decision making
model presented by Graham Allison.
➢ The conclusion of this thesis suggests that Allison's Rational Actor,
Organizational Process and the Bureaucratic Politics Models have some
usefulness in explaining Pakistan's decision to conduct nuclear tests in
1998.
➢