Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Catalpa Resources Limited
Catalpa Resources Limited
asx
Buy
Catalpa which included the merger with its major shareholder Lion Selection Company Address
Group, completion of construction of Edna May, a capital reconstruction, the Level 1, 9 Havelock Street
West Perth, WA, 6005
restructuring of its debt, as well as raising ~A$59m.
Issued Capital 161.3m
Low Grades Boosted by Attractive Hedge Book - fully diluted 174.5m
The Edna May deposit is relatively low grade at just over 1g/t Au. However, Market Cap $234.0m
with a large mill, low strip ratios, efficient mining practices and recoveries of - fully diluted $253.0m
Cash (31 March '10) $26.4m
~92%, the Company is targeting life of mine cash costs of ~A$640/oz.
Debt (31 March '10) $50.0m
In addition, 70% of the operations production is hedged at an average price EV $257.6m
EV/Resource Oz $137/oz
of A$1,557/oz for five years, yielding excellent margins. This delivery price EV/Reserve Oz $241/oz
compares well to the current spot price of ~A$1,450/oz.
FY2009A FY2010F FY2011F
We see this hedge book, as well as Edna Mays long mine life, as key Prod (koz Au) 0.0 26.0 120.1
differentiating factors from its peers. The hedge book removes short to Op Cash Flw -3.3 4.4 66.9
medium term revenue risk, with the 10 year mine life enabling exposure to NPAT -6.8 -1.9 36.5
CF/Share (cps) -4.6 1.9 33.2
long term gold price movements. We note that if the gold price does move
EPS (cps) -4.7 -1.2 22.6
above A$1,557, CAH still has almost 50% of its total targeted production P/E -30.8x -116.5x 6.4x
unhedged. N.D. / equity na 0.4 0.0
ROE -15.3% -1.6% 23.1%
Cracow Provides Steady Ongoing Cashflow
The Company’s 30% ownership of Cracow also generates annual total Resources (koz Au) 1,886
Reserves (koz Au) 1,068
cashflow of ~A$12m. Whilst Cracow has a relatively small reserve base, we
expect the mine life to be at least four years given the operations long 2.00
Catalpa Resources
2.5
operational history and exploration potential. 1.80
1.60 2.0
Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL 230052) 141 St Georges
Page 1 of 21 Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000
Hartleys does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the
firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
Hartleys Limited Catalpa Resources Limited 1 June 2010
SUMMARY MODEL
Catalpa Resources Limited Share Price June 2010
CAH $1.45 Buy
Share Price $1.45 Peter Maloney (Non-Exec. Chair) Level 1, 9 Havelock Street
Market Capitalisation $234m Bruce McFadzean (MD) West Perth, WA, 6005
52 Week High-Low $1.96-$1.445 John Row e (Non-Exec. Dir) Tel: +61 8 9321 3088
Issued Capital 161.3m Barry Sullivan (Non-Exec. Dir) Fax: +61 8 9321 8804
Issued Capital (fully diluted inc. ITM options) 174.5m Murray Pollock (Non-Exec. Dir) w w w .catalparesources.com.au
Options 14.6m@$A0.97 Graham Freestone (Non-Exec. Dir)
Hedging 352koz @ A$1,557/oz
Yearly Turnover/Volume $93.3m/311.5m shares Top 10 Shareholders m shares %
Liquidity Measure (Yearly Turnover/Issued Capital) 187%
Valuation $2.02 HSBC Custody Nom Aust Ltd 27.04 16.8%
ANZ Nom Ltd Cash Income A/C 13.40 8.3%
Financial Perform ance Unit FY2009A FY2010F FY2011F FY2012F Citicorp Nom Pl 8.40 5.2%
National Nom Ltd 7.40 4.6%
Net Revenue A$m 0.1 27.1 172.0 180.0 Cogent Nom Pl 5.95 3.7%
Total Costs A$m (6.9) (22.1) (92.3) (87.3) Lion Manager Pl 4.82 3.0%
EBITDA A$m (6.8) 5.0 79.7 92.7 J P Morgan Nom Aust 3.78 2.3%
Depreciation/Amort A$m (0.2) (5.0) (17.2) (21.4) Creasy Mark Gareth 3.22 2.0%
EBIT A$m (7.0) 0.0 62.6 71.3 Reneagle Pl Sharnem Inv A/C 1.88 1.2%
Net Interest A$m 0.2 (1.3) (10.5) (8.5)
Pre-Tax Profit A$m (6.8) (1.3) 52.1 62.8
Tax Expense A$m 0.0 (0.6) (15.6) (18.8) Reserves & Resources Mt g/t Au Koz Attrib.
NPAT A$m (6.8) (1.9) 36.5 43.9
Abnormal Items A$m - - - - Resources
Reported Profit A$m (6.8) (1.9) 36.5 43.9 Edna May (M+I+I) 48.10 0.99 1,526 1,526
Greenfinch (M+I+I) 4.00 1.02 130 130
Cracow (M+I+I) 3.00 8.10 800 230
Total 55.10 1.38 2,456 1,886
Financial Position Unit FY2009A FY2010F FY2011F FY2012F
Reserves
Cash A$m 32.3 19.6 56.4 105.3 Edna May 25.5 1.09 892 892
Other Current Assets A$m 4.4 9.6 20.3 20.9 Edna May Stockpiles 1.6 0.65 34 34
Total Current Assets A$m 36.7 29.2 76.8 126.2 Greenfinch 2.5 1.07 86 86
Property, Plant & Equip. A$m 7.5 104.0 102.1 97.8 Cracow 0.80 7.10 188 56
Exploration A$m 1.5 73.7 70.8 72.0 Total 30.4 1.22 1,200 1,068
Investments/other A$m 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.3
Tot Non-Curr. Assets A$m 12.6 181.0 176.3 173.1 Production Sum m ary Unit FY2009A FY2010F FY2011F FY2012F
Total Assets A$m 49.3 210.2 253.1 299.3 *Attributable
Payable Gold Metal 000oz 0 26 120 125
Short Term Borrow ings A$m (0.0) (7.8) (7.8) (7.8) Cash Cost $A/oz 0 673 703 633
Other A$m (4.2) (12.2) (10.2) (10.6)
Total Curr. Liabilities A$m (4.2) (20.0) (17.9) (18.4) Price Assum ptions Unit FY2009A FY2010F FY2011F FY2012F
Long Term Borrow ings A$m (0.1) (57.2) (50.0) (30.0)
Other A$m (0.4) (11.7) (27.3) (43.2) Gold US$/oz 874 1,068 1,100 1,050
Total Non-Curr. Liabil. A$m (0.5) (68.9) (77.3) (73.2) Exchange Rate A$/US$ 0.75 0.89 0.89 0.83
Total Liabilities A$m (4.7) (88.9) (95.2) (91.6) $A Gold A$/oz 1,170 1,195 1,239 1,273
Page 2 of 21
Hartleys Limited Catalpa Resources Limited 1 June 2010
HIGHLIGHTS
Company highlights include:
• Completion of the merger with its major shareholder Lion Selection Limited
Two production
centres • 30% owners of the Cracow Gold Mine in Qld
• Developed the 100% owned Edna May Gold Project in WA for first gold pour in
April 2010
• Two production centres set to deliver annualised gold production of ~130koz
at cash costs around A$620/oz
Forecast attributable
annualised production • 70% of Edna May production hedged at A$1557/oz over 5 years
of 130koz at cash cost
of ~A$620/oz BUSINESS OVERVIEW
Catalpa was originally listed on the ASX as Westonia Mines Limited in 2002 with
the Edna May project and surrounding tenements covering the vast majority of the
Westonia greenstone belt. After completing the purchase of the Big Bell gold
processing plant, the Company undertook a bankable feasibility study into the
Listed as Westonia development of Edna May in 2004. Development was not justified at the time due
Mines Limited in 2002 to insufficient returns at the prevailing gold price (2004 average gold price
A$556/oz).
In 2008, the Company changed its name to Catalpa Resources Limited, and re-
examined the potential for the development of Edna May due to the much higher
gold price (2008 average gold price A$1,034/oz). In late 2009, the Company
Name changed to completed a merger with its largest shareholder, Lion Selection Limited (“Lion”),
Catalpa Resources following a capital reconstruction, to give the Company its current form. The
Limited in 2008, then merger, via a scheme of arrangement, saw Lion contributing 30% of Cracow, with
merged with Lion Catalpa contributing 100% of its Edna May operation.
Selection in late 2009
Fig. 1: Catalpa Gold Operations
Australian located
projects in WA and
QLD
Page 3 of 21
Hartleys Limited Catalpa Resources Limited 1 June 2010
EDNA MAY
• Interest: 100%
• Reserve: 1.01Moz Au
• Resource: 1.66Moz Au
asset located in the • Hedging: 352,317oz @ A$1,557.5/oz (~70% of first 5 years production)
Westonia Greenstone
Source: Catalpa Resources Limited
Belt
The Edna May project is located within the Westonia Greenstone belt, half way
between Perth and Kalgoorlie in Western Australia. The area has had historic mining
Historic underground on and off since 1911. Most of the mining has been via underground methods,
mining on & off since though there was an open cut operation between 1986 and 1989 operated by ACM
1911 Gold Limited on the main Edna May deposit. ACM underground mining was
terminated in 1991 when barren pegmatites were intersected and the inflow of
groundwater was unable to be effectively dealt with by the pumping capacity at the
time.
The mineralisation at Edna May is contained within the Edna May gneiss,
Mineralisation
Greenfinch gneiss and the Golden Point gneiss. Current resources are 52.1Mt @
contained within the
0.99g/t Au for 1.66Moz. Total reserves are 29.6Mt @ 1.06g/t Au for 1.01Moz gold.
Edna May Gneiss
The targeted annual production rate of ~100kozpa gives a 10 year mine life for the
project on a reserve basis. Whilst the overall resource and reserve grades are
relatively low, we understand that there is some high grade mineralisation contained
Forecast annualised within arcuate quartz veins in the gneiss. These higher grade quartz veins were the
gold production at main target during underground mining, with periods of historic mining returning
Edna May of 100koz average grades of +20g/t Au. We understand that the distribution of these zones is
not fully understood as yet, and consequently the higher grades have been
conservatively modelled, giving the potential for grade overcalls when the open pit
ore is processed.
10 year mine life
Catalpa started construction in July 2009, with earth moving operations for the open
pit development commencing in November 2009. The treatment plant is a standard
First gold pour was in carbon in leach gold plant, having being refurbished following its use at the Big Bell
late April 2010 operation between 1989 and 2000. Catalpa commissioned the gravity and carbon
recovery circuits in mid April 2010 for its first gold pour in late April 2010, some two
months ahead of the original schedule.
Total capex of A$92m The initial throughput rate of 2.8Mtpa is planned to increase to 3.2Mtpa from mid
to re-start operations 2012. The total capital cost, including open pit pre-strip, is budgeted at $92m, of
which the $46m plant construction cost is at a guaranteed maximum price. We
understand that if the cost of the plant construction comes in under budget, the
Page 4 of 21
Hartleys Limited Catalpa Resources Limited 1 June 2010
Company and the construction contractor split the difference between budget and
actual cost.
Targeting life of mine Even though the reserve grade is relatively low, the good metallurgy of the ore, the
cash costs of large plant size, and simple open pit mining methods have the Company targeting
A$636/oz life of mine cash costs of A$636/oz. Recoveries are 88% in oxide ore and 92% in
fresh ore.
We understand that at the applied cut-off grade the ore zones are large and
Large low grade homogenous, which should result in minimal dilution during the mining process. In
orebody, dilution addition, the average grade of all assays from drilling within the Edna May gneiss is
effect minimal 0.9g/t Au. This compares to a break even grade of 0.4g/t Au, implying that there is
little risk of unprofitable ore being processed. Steady-state production is likely to be
achieved around August 2010.
Golden Point
While the Company is focused on the commissioning and ramp-up of the Edna May
operations it has also continued with resource definition and exploration activities in
Near surface order to extent mine life. Recent drilling at the Golden Point prospect within the
intercepts at Golden Golden Point Gneiss, located only a few hundred metres from the current Edna May
Point has the potential operations continues to delineate encouraging mineralisation including:
to increase ore
reserves and increase • 8m @ 3.39g/t Au from 52m;
mine life • 3m @ 8.21/t Au from 83m; and
• 9m @ 4.79/t Au from 58m.
The results from this drilling have recently been incorporated into a JORC compliant
resource and reserve, which the Company has recently released. The initial reserve
Initial 37Koz reserve for Golden Point is 37koz; however, we understand that this reserve only goes down
for Golden Point to 100m depth. The mineralisation remains open below this as well to the south,
indicating good potential for further resource and reserve upgrades in the future.
Page 5 of 21
Hartleys Limited Catalpa Resources Limited 1 June 2010
Underground Potential
The Company has undertaken substantial drilling at depth, identifying some high
High Grades at depth grade mineralisation with good potential to be accessed via the existing underground
infrastructure. Whilst this mineralisation represents an opportunity to augment the
low grade open pit material with high grade ore, the Company has yet to undertake a
study into the viability of an underground operation. However, based on the drill
intercepts to date, the grades appear to be able to support a small underground
operation.
Existing decline in Any underground opportunities would be accessed via the existing decline on the
place but would need footwall between the two ore bodies. However, the decline would need dewatering
to be refurbished and refurbishment before being able to be accessed. The Company will further
assess the strike and down dip extension of the Golden Point Gneiss which appears
to remain open down dip and down plunge.
Mineralisation below
300m has not been
included in the current
Resource
Page 6 of 21
Hartleys Limited Catalpa Resources Limited 1 June 2010
Shallow drilling of broad auger anomalies at Stoneman, Battler West and Colossus
North has enabled interpretation for the probable source of the gold anomalism and
Anomalous areas of allowed for more detailed deeper drilling which is proposed. As well as targeting
gold requiring drill- some of the above targets, the drill testing of the historical workings at Battler and
testing other ‘magnetic low’ targets surrounding the Rutherfords Reward gold mine is
proposed.
Page 7 of 21
Hartleys Limited Catalpa Resources Limited 1 June 2010
• Operation: Underground
• Unhedged
Page 8 of 21
Hartleys Limited Catalpa Resources Limited 1 June 2010
Catalpa’s 30% share of gold produced at the Cracow Gold Mine for the first quarter
of CY2010 was 6,437oz Au at cash operating cost of A$610/oz. Cracow is unhedged
and continues to be fully exposed to the high A$ gold price providing a strong cash
flow stream.
Reserves
Edna May P+P 25.5 1.09 892 892
Edna May Stockpiles P+P 1.6 0.65 34 34
Current Reserve of
Greenfinch P+P 2.5 1.07 86 86
1.1 Moz Au
Cracow P+P 0.80 7.10 188 56
Total P+P 30.4 1.22 1,200 1,068
Source: Catalpa Resources Limited
COMPARATIVES
GOLD COMPARATIVES
Fig. 10: ASX Peer Market Capitalisation: Producers (A$m)
900 Market Capitalisation
800
700
600
500
A$m
400
300
200
100
0
OGC
CGX
NGX
DOM
TRY
RMS
NGF
FML
GDO
RDR
CTO
MML
CRE
IAU
RSG
BDG
TAM
MDL
KCN
CAH
BCD
SBM
AXM
ALD
SLR
AVO
Catalpa has a market capitalisation around A$240m (at a price of $1.50) and current
comparable resource base to Medusa Mining Limited (MML), and Focus Minerals
Limited (FML) at ~1.9Moz.
Page 9 of 21
Hartleys Limited Catalpa Resources Limited 1 June 2010
Fig. 11: Producers JORC Compliant Reserves (LHS) and Resources (RHS)
4 Reserves 14 Resources
4 12
3
10
3
8
Moz Au
Moz Au
6
2
4
1
2
1
0 0
OGC
CGX
NGX
OGC
CGX
NGX
DOM
DOM
TRY
TRY
RMS
NGF
NGF
FML
FML
GDO
GDO
RDR
CTO
CTO
MML
MML
CRE
IAU
CRE
RSG
BDG
RSG
BDG
TAM
MDL
MDL
KCN
CAH
BCD
KCN
CAH
BCD
SBM
AXM
SBM
AXM
ALD
ALD
SLR
AVO
AVO
Source: Company Reports
Catalpa’s targeted annual production rate of ~100kozpa for the Edna May Project
implies a 10 year mine life on a current reserve position.
Fig. 12: Producers EV/ Oz Charts: Reserves (LHS) and Resources (RHS)
1,800 EV/Reserve Oz 600 EV/Resource Oz
1,600
500
1,400
1,200 400
1,000
A$/oz
A$/oz
300
800
600 200
400
100
200
0 0
CGX
OGC
NGX
DOM
TRY
CRE
NCM
LGL
RMS
FML
NGF
RDR
GDO
MDL
CTO
NGX
CGX
OGC
MML
DOM
KCN
TRY
CAH
BCD
SBM
AXM
CRE
ALD
LGL
IAU
BDG
NCM
RSG
FML
NGF
GDO
TAM
MDL
AVO
CTO
MML
KCN
CAH
BCD
SBM
AXM
SLR
ALD
BDG
RSG
AVO
Page 10 of 21
Hartleys Limited Catalpa Resources Limited 1 June 2010
FINANCIALS
Given that the Catalpa – Lion Selection merger had yet to occur as at June 30 2009,
and that the Company was still very much in development mode for Edna May, the
financial performance for FY2009 was not representative of the Company going
Good margins boost forward.
cash flows once Edna
May comes online, Based on our assumptions, as detailed in our valuation section, Catalpa makes a
with maiden profit small loss in FY2010 as the Company completes development of Edna May though
forecast for FY2011. whilst receiving cashflow from Cracow, moving into a profit making position in
FY2011 following a full year of production from Edna May.
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Fig. 13: Financial Performance
Financial Performance Unit FY2009A FY2010F FY2011F FY2012F
Net Revenue A$m 0.1 27.1 172.0 180.0
Total Costs A$m (6.9) (22.1) (92.3) (87.3)
EBITDA A$m (6.8) 5.0 79.7 92.7
Depreciation/Amort A$m (0.2) (5.0) (17.2) (20.8)
EBIT A$m (7.0) 0.0 62.6 71.8
Net Interest A$m 0.2 (1.3) (10.5) (8.5)
Pre-Tax Profit A$m (6.8) (1.3) 52.1 63.4
Tax Expense A$m 0.0 (0.6) (15.6) (19.0)
NPAT A$m (6.8) (1.9) 36.5 44.4
Abnormal Items A$m - - - -
Reported Profit A$m (6.8) (1.9) 36.5 44.4
Source: Catalpa Resources Limited; Hartleys Research Estimates
BALANCE SHEET
Fig. 14: Balance Sheet
Financial Position Unit FY2009A FY2010F FY2011F FY2012F
Cash A$m 32.3 19.6 56.4 106.8
Other Current Assets A$m 4.4 9.6 20.3 20.9
Total Current Assets A$m 36.7 29.2 76.8 127.7
PP&E + Development A$m 7.5 104.0 102.1 98.0
Exploration A$m 1.5 73.7 70.8 69.8
Investments/other A$m 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.3
Tot Non-Curr. Assets A$m 12.6 181.0 176.3 171.2
Total Assets A$m 49.3 210.2 253.1 298.9
Page 11 of 21
Hartleys Limited Catalpa Resources Limited 1 June 2010
CASH FLOW
Fig. 15: Cash Flow Statement
Cashflow Unit FY2009A FY2010F FY2011F FY2012F
Operating Cashflow A$m (3.3) 4.4 66.9 92.5
Income Tax Paid A$m - (0.3) - (3.9)
Interest & Other A$m 0.3 (1.0) (10.5) (8.5)
Operating Activities A$m (3.0) 3.1 56.4 80.2
However, the Company has since undertaken a restructuring of the debt to convert
Recent restructure of the MLF into senior debt. The change has not altered Catalpa’s total debt position,
Mezzanine finance but should lower the ongoing interest costs by 2.5% pa on the A$10m converted.
component of debt Macquarie has consequently forgone its entitlement to 6.06m Catalpa options with
an exercise price of A$0.825 that were part of the MLF package. In consideration for
this, Catalpa has issued Macquarie with 500,000 CAH fully paid ordinary shares.
Recent A$20m raising In conjunction with the debt restructure, Catalpa undertook a share placement to
to boost working raise A$20m, with the funds to be used to accelerate resource and exploration
capital and advance drilling at Edna May as well as provide a working capital buffer during the
exploration commissioning phase of Edna May.
HEDGING
Excellent hedge book As part of the financing package for Edna May, the Company took out a substantial
of 350koz at flat forward hedging package of 352koz of gold at a delivery price A$1,557/oz. The
A$1,557/oz delivery schedule is ~70kozpa over five years.
Given Edna May’s production profile of ~100kozpa, this represents 70% of the
operation’s annual production over the first five years. However, as Cracow
contributes ~30kozpa, the hedging represents only 54% of total annual production.
As the hedges are currently substantially in the money, we see little risk of defaulting
on any hedge commitments as the Company could easily sell the forwards.
Page 12 of 21
Hartleys Limited Catalpa Resources Limited 1 June 2010
DIRECTORS
Mr Peter Maloney – Non Executive Chairman
Mr Maloney, has broad commercial, financial and management expertise and
experience. In a long career with WMC Resources, he held the positions of
Treasurer, Executive Vice President Americas, and Manager Commercial and
Marketing –WA. He has also been Executive General Manager, Finance at Santos
and Chief Financial Officer at FH Faulding. Mr Maloney has also been a director of
several companies and organizations including Indophil Resources and Barra
Resources, and was chairman of Southern Health, the largest health care provider in
Victoria, during a period of improvement in management and financial performance.
He has been Chief Financial Officer of Lion Selection (and its predecessor
companies) since 2003. Mr Maloney has been an Executive Director of Lion
Manager since August 2007.
Page 13 of 21
Hartleys Limited Catalpa Resources Limited 1 June 2010
SENIOR PERSONNEL
Mr Erik Palmbachs – Chief Financial Officer
Mr Palmbachs is an experienced CFO and holds an MSc in Mineral Economics and
a Bachelor of Business (Accounting). He is a member of the Australian Society of
Accountants (AASA, CPA) and has an impressive resume with over 30 years hands-
on experience, much of which was gained in the resources sector.
Page 14 of 21
Hartleys Limited Catalpa Resources Limited 1 June 2010
MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS
Fig. 17: Top 10 Shareholders as at 31 May 2010
Holder Units Held (m) % Units Issued
Page 15 of 21
Hartleys Limited Catalpa Resources Limited 1 June 2010
VALUATION
METHODOLOGY
$2.02/share valuation We have a sum of parts valuation for Catalpa of $2.02 per share. This is dominated
for Catalpa by our NPV10 for Edna May of $1.36 per share, our NPV8 for the hedge book of
52cps and NPV8 for Cracow of 21cps.
Edna May
We have been conservative in our valuation of Edna May by only incorporating the
Edna May, Greenfinch and Golden Point reserves as well as stockpiles (29.6Mt @
Conservative 1.06g/t for 1.01Moz). Our valuation is based on initial production of ~90kozpa for
valuation assumptions FY11, 95koz in FY12 and then ~100kozpa from FY13 onwards once the plant
for Edna May with no throughput is increased to 3.2Mtpa. We have average life of mine costs of
additional resource ~A$650/oz. Based on the current reserves, we model a mine life of 10 years. This
conversion or results in total recovered gold of ~950koz, using an average recovery of ~92%,
underground ore though with lower recoveries during the first few quarters. We see room for valuation
uplift via:
Cracow
Our Cracow valuation is based on a mine life of ~4.5 years, with consistent annual
Assumed +4 year mine
production of ~100koz, of which 30% is attributable to Catalpa. Life of mine cash
life for Cracow, but
further extensions costs are assumed to be ~A$590/oz.
likely Total production under this scenario is ~490koz, of which ~150koz is attributable to
Catalpa. Whilst this is significantly above the current reserve base, we expect
reserves to be steadily replenished over this period, and note that these recovered
ounces are still less than the current ~800koz resource base.
Given the long history of mining at Cracow, we see good potential for mine life
extensions, however, at this stage will retain our 4 year life in our valuation.
Page 16 of 21
Hartleys Limited Catalpa Resources Limited 1 June 2010
120 720
700
100
680
Production peaks at
Koz Gold
80
A$/oz
130koz in FY13 & 14 660
in our scenario 60
640
40
620
20 600
0 580
2HFY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Hedge Book
To attribute a value for the hedge book independent of either Edna May or Cracow,
we have undertaken a DCF on the value difference between our forecast gold price
and the hedge price (A$1,557/oz), assuming constant delivery of 70kozpa over 5
years. This methodology derives a value for Catalpa’s hedge book of ~A$91m, or
57cps.
120 1400
1200
Hedge book allows 100
significant margins 1000
Koz Gold
80 A$/oz
800
60
600
40
400
20 200
0 0
2HFY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Unhedged production Hedged production
A$ Cash Cost Effective Received price
Other
Our valuation incorporates the full A$65m debt, the A$19m in cash as at March 31
2010, as well as the A$7m in cash in the retention account for the debt.
Page 17 of 21
Hartleys Limited Catalpa Resources Limited 1 June 2010
SENSITIVITIES
Hedge book lowers As can be seen from our sensitivity analysis, due to the Catalpa A$ denominated
valuation sensitivity to hedge book, the Company is less exposed to variations in exchange rates and the
exchange rate and gold price.
gold price
Fig. 21: Valuation Sensitivities on A$353m valuation
+10% -10% +10% -10%
A$m A$m % change % change
Exchange Rate 330 381 -6% 8%
Operating Costs 320 385 -9% 9%
Gold Price 378 328 7% -7%
Source: Hartleys Estimates
Spot valuation By way of comparison, a valuation using the current spot exchange rate (AUDUSD:
increases to 0.85) and spot gold price (US$1,210/oz), yields a valuation of $2.27/share, with the
$2.27/share valuation for Cracow and Edna May increasing, whereas the hedge book value
decreases as expected.
RISKS
We see the key risk for Catalpa being lower than anticipated production from Edna
May which could cause a default on the debt facility.
Low grades for Edna To minimise this risk, the Company will need to maintain the efficient movement of
May means that CAH open pit ore to the mill, as well as the mill being able to treat the ore at the designed
will need to maintain capacity, with recoveries being close to expectations. Given the relatively large size
efficient mining, of the open pit and therefore ease of mining efficiently, we do not see a lack of
maintaining mill earthmoving as a likely impediment. Conversely, we see the underperformance of
throughput and the plant as the largest risk. However, given that the metallurgy of the ore is well
achieving targeted understood due to it having being treated historically, as well as the substantial
recoveries metallurgical testwork undertaken by the Company, we believe that this risk has
been mitigated as best as can be prior to start up.
Threats Good hedge book and long mine life may be attractive to predators
General rise in industry costs threatening margins
Source: Hartleys Research
Page 18 of 21
Hartleys Limited Catalpa Resources Limited 1 June 2010
Initiating coverage The Company also has excellent management with significant development
with a Buy experience. As production from Edna May continues to ramp up, we expect the
recommendation Company to be re-rated. The Company is trading at a substantial discount to our
$2.02 per share valuation, and has attractive forward looking earnings ratios and
cashflow multiples, as well as comparing favourably to its peers on a number of
multiples. We recommend Catalpa Resources Limited as a Buy.
Page 19 of 21
HARTLEYS RESEARCH COVERAGE LIST
Hartleys Research Coverage Hartleys
Nam e Ticker Last M. CAP EV Research Industry
Price* (A$m ) (A$m ) Recom m endation
Oil & Gas
1. Woodside Petroleum Ltd WPL 43.49 33,802 37,980 Buy Major
2. Nexus Energy Ltd NXS 0.265 254 576 Neutral Developer / Explorer
3. Carnarvon Petroleum Ltd CVN 0.350 240 211 Buy Producer / Explorer
4. Tap Oil Ltd TAP 0.920 144 83 Buy Producer / Explorer
5. Cooper Energy Ltd COE 0.445 130 34 Buy Producer / Explorer
6. Otto Energy Ltd OEL 0.095 102 79 Buy Explorer / Producer
7. Strike Energy Ltd STX 0.240 79 71 Buy Explorer / Producer
8. Adelphi Energy Ltd ADI 0.415 70 60 Buy Producer / Developer
9. Red Fork Energy Ltd RFE 0.450 62 34 Buy Explorer / Producer
10. Amadeus Energy Ltd AMU 0.190 58 101 Buy Producer / Explorer
11. First Australian Resources Ltd FAR 0.062 41 22 Speculative Buy Explorer / Producer
12. Entek Energy Ltd ETE 0.170 38 29 Speculative Buy Producer / Explorer
13. European Gas Ltd EPG 0.150 30 94 Speculative Buy Producer / Explorer
14. Sun Resources NL SUR 0.058 20 15 Speculative Buy Explorer / Producer
15. Oilex Ltd OEX 0.088 19 1 Neutral Explorer / Producer
Sub-Total 35,089 39,391
Resources
1. Riversdale Mining Limited RIV 9.65 1,818 1,550 Speculative Buy Coal
2. Atlas Iron Limited AGO 2.040 912 767 Buy Iron Ore
3. Western Areas NL WSA 4.09 732 911 No Rating Nickel
4. Dominion Mining Limited DOM 2.730 282 301 Speculative Buy Gold
5. Silver Lake Resources Limited SLR 1.565 280 249 Speculative Buy Gold
6. Catalpa Resources Limited CAH 1.460 236 274 Buy Gold Producer
7. Intrepid Mines Limited IAU 0.550 235 188 Speculative Buy Gold
8. Gold One International Limited GDO 0.275 221 292 Buy Gold
9. Jabiru Metals Limited JML 0.310 171 146 Buy Zinc-Copper
10. Tanami Gold NL TAM 0.040 142 184 No Rating Gold Producer
11. Focus Minerals Ltd FML 0.046 132 125 Speculative Buy Gold Producer
12. Magma Metals Limited MMB 0.520 85 64 Speculative Buy PGM-Cu-Ni
13. Peninsula Minerals Ltd PEN 0.037 51 42 Buy Uranium Developer / Explorer
14. Emmerson Resources Limited ERM 0.210 43 30 Speculative Buy Junior Explorer
15. Hazelw ood Resources Ltd HAZ 0.210 40 35 Speculative Buy Junior Developer
16. YTC Resources Limited YTC 0.230 38 25 Buy Junior Explorer
17. Centaurus Metals Ltd CTM 0.060 36 29 Speculative Buy Iron Ore Developer
18. Ausquest Limited AQD 0.145 33 7 Speculative Buy Junior Explorer
19. Shaw River Resources Limited SRR 0.150 30 23 Speculative Buy Junior Explorer
20. Ferrum Crescent Limited FCR 0.170 27 25 Speculative Buy Iron Ore
21. Orion Gold NL ORN 0.025 19 15 Speculative Buy Gold
22. Impact Minerals Limited IPT 0.130 15 11 Speculative Buy Junior Explorer
23. Southern Gold Limited SAU 0.088 12 8 Speculative Buy Junior Explorer
Sub-Total 5,417 5,183
Industrials
1. West Australia New s Hdgs Ltd WAN 6.61 1,532 1,807 Buy Media
2. Monadelphous Group Limited MND 12.810 1,102 970 Buy Mining Services
3. Clough Limited CLO 0.775 527 587 No Rating Oil & Gas Services
4. Mermaid Marine Australia Ltd MRM 2.50 465 599 Buy Oil(C
& Gast Services
ti )
5. Fleetw ood Corporation FWD 8.500 459 452 Neutral Consumer & Mining Services
6. Austal Limited ASB 2.19 412 423 Speculative Buy Capital Goods
7. Macmahon Holdings Limited MAH 0.550 404 376 Buy Mining & Civil Construction
8. Ausdrill Limited ASL 1.845 386 608 Buy Mining Services (Drilling &
9. NRW Holdings Ltd NWH 0.960 241 306 Buy C & Civil
Mining t tConstruction
Mi i )
10. Cash Converters Limited CCV 0.595 216 173 Buy Retail & Consumer Finance
11. Decmil Group Limited DCG 1.440 176 143 Buy Mining & Civil Construction
12. Imdex Ltd IMD 0.725 141 155 Buy Oil & Gas / Mining Drilling
13. Southern Cross Electrical SXE 1.110 134 118 Speculative Buy S
Mining Services (Electrical)
E i i
14. Lycopodium Limited LYL 3.240 125 110 Buy Mining & Industrial Services
15. Neptune Marine Ltd NMS 0.235 113 142 Speculative Buy Oil & Gas Services
16. RCR Tomlinson Ltd RCR 0.850 112 156 Buy Mining & Industrial Services
17. Sw ick Mining Services Ltd SWK 0.380 90 139 Speculative Buy Mining Services (Drilling)
18. VDM Group Limited VMG 0.360 76 95 Buy Mining & Civil Construction
19. Pacific Energy Ltd PEA 0.280 52 107 Buy Mining Services / Pow er
20. LogiCamms Limited LCM 0.870 52 42 Buy Resource Services
21. Nomad Building Solutions Ltd NOD 0.145 20 43 Neutral Residential & Mining Services
Sub-Total 6,836 7,549
Page 20 of 21
HARTLEYS CORPORATE DIRECTORY
Research
Trent Barnett Head of Research +61 8 9268 3052 Institutional Sales
Andrew Muir Senior Resources Analyst +61 8 9268 3045 Carrick Ryan +61 8 9268 2864
Mike Millikan Resources Analyst +61 8 9268 2805 Justin Stewart +61 8 9268 3062
David Wall Oil and Gas Analyst +61 8 9268 2826 Simon van den Berg +61 8 9268 2867
Nikki Ermongkonchai Industrial Analyst +61 8 9268 2837 Steven Boyce +61 8 9268 2817
Janine Hodges Research Assistant +61 8 9268 2831 Nick Wheeler +61 8 9268 3053
Wealth Management
Corporate Finance Nicola Bond +61 8 9268 2840
Grey Egerton- Head of Corporate Finance +61 8 9268 2851 Bradley Booth +61 8 9268 2873
Warburton Adrian Brant +61 8 9268 3065
Richard Simpson Director - Corporate Finance +61 8 9268 2824 Nathan Bray +61 8 9268 2874
Paul Fryer Director - Corporate Finance +61 8 9268 2819 Sven Burrell +61 8 9268 2847
Dale Bryan Director - Corporate Finance +61 8 9268 2829 Simon Casey +61 8 9268 2875
Ben Wale Manager - Corporate Finance +61 8 9268 3055 Tony Chien +61 8 9268 2850
Matt Szwedzicki Manager - Corporate Finance +61 8 9268 3047 Travis Clark +61 8 9268 2876
Scott Weir Corporate Finance Exec. +61 8 9268 2821 David Cross +61 8 9268 2860
Nicholas Draper +61 8 9268 2883
John Featherby +61 8 9268 2811
Registered Office Ben Fleay +61 8 9268 2844
Level 6, 141 St Georges Tce John Georgiades +61 8 9268 2887
Perth WA 6000 John Goodlad +61 8 9268 2890
Australia Andrew Gribble +61 8 9268 2842
Neil Inglis +61 8 9268 2894
Postal Address Murray Jacob +61 8 9268 2892
GPO Box 2777 Gavin Lehmann +61 8 9268 2895
Perth WA 6001 Shane Lehmann +61 8 9268 2897
Australia Steven Loxley +61 8 9268 2857
Contact Details Andrew Macnaughtan +61 8 9268 2898
Telephone: +61 8 9268 2888 Christian Marriott +61 8 9268 2828
Facsimile: +61 8 9268 2800 Scott Metcalf +61 8 9268 2807
Website: www.hartleys.com.au David Michael +61 8 9268 2835
Email: info@hartleys.com.au Nicole Morcombe +61 8 9268 2896
Note: personal email addresses of company employees are Jamie Moullin +61 8 9268 2856
Chris Munro +61 8 9268 2858
structured in the following manner:
Michael Munro +61 8 9268 2820
firstname_lastname@hartleys.com.au
Ian Parker +61 8 9268 2810
Ian Plowman +61 8 9268 3054
Hartleys Recommendation Categories
Margaret Radici +61 8 9268 3051
No Rating No recommendation. Charlie Ransom (CEO) +61 8 9268 2868
Buy Share price appreciation anticipated Elliott Rowton +61 8 9268 3059
Speculative Buy Share price appreciation anticipated but it is higher Conlie Salvemini +61 8 9268 2833
risk than a “Buy”. For the share price to rise it may David Smyth +61 8 9268 2839
be contingent on the outcome of an uncertain or Greg Soudure +61 8 9268 2834
distant event. Sonya Soudure +61 8 9268 2865
Neutral Take no action. Stock is already trading near the Dirk Vanderstruyf +61 8 9268 2855
Marlene White +61 8 9268 2806
share price target and there are no foreseeable
near term catalysts.
Reduce / Take Stock is trading above the share price target and
profits there is a near term negative catalyst that could
cause temporary weakness.
Sell Significant price depreciation anticipated
Disclaimer/Disclosure
The author of this publication, Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (“Hartleys”), its Directors and their Associates from time to time may hold
shares in the security/securities mentioned in this Research document and therefore may benefit from any increase in the price of those
securities. Hartleys and its Advisers may earn brokerage, fees, commissions, other benefits or advantages as a result of a transaction arising
from any advice mentioned in publications to clients.
Any financial product advice contained in this document is unsolicited general information only. Do not act on this advice without first consulting
your investment adviser to determine whether the advice is appropriate for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.
Hartleys believes that any information or advice (including any financial product advice) contained in this document is accurate when issued.
Hartleys however, does not warrant its accuracy or reliability. Hartleys, its officers, agents and employees exclude all liability whatsoever, in
negligence or otherwise, for any loss or damage relating to this document to the full extent permitted by law.
Page 21 of 21