Capitolul IX

$1$/,=$67$7,67,& $ SERIILOR CRONOLOGICE

&XQRDúWHUHD QLYHOXOXL úL D HYROX LHL vQ WLPS D XQRU LQGLFDWRUL UHIHULWRUL OD DFWLYLWDWHD

HFRQRPLF  GHVI úXUDW  HYROX LD SURILWXOXL FRVWXULORU SURGXFWLYLW LL HWF FRQVWLWXLH R EXQ  ED] 

pentru fundamentarea viitoarelor afaceri economice.

9.1. CONCEPTUL DE SE5,(&5212/2*,& 6&53$57,&8/$5,7 ,

2 VHULH FURQRORJLF  VH SUH]LQW  VXE IRUPD XQXL úLU VLVWHPDWL]DW GH YDORUL DOH XQHL

caracteristici, realizate la momente sau intervale de timp succesive. Exemple de serii

FURQRORJLFH SRW IL HYROX LD OXQDU  D H[SRUWXULORU VDX LPSRUWXULORU UHDOL]DWH GH R VRFLHWDWH

FRPHUFLDO  HYROX LD OXQDU  D VWRFXULORU GH P UIXUL GLQWU XQ GHSR]LW HYROX LD DQXDO  D FLIUHL GH
-
afaceri, a profitului brut etc. realizate de o sRFLHWDWH FRPHUFLDO  HYROX LD GREkQ]LORU EDQFDUH VDX D

cursului valutar etc.

'HILQL LDúLH[HPSOHOHGHPDLVXVLPSXQXQHOHREVHUYD LLFXPDUIL

{ &XUJHUHD WLPSXOXL VH P VRDU  vQ VXFFHVLXQH FX DMXWRUXO XQHL VFDOH GH LQWHUYDO

8QLW LOHGHWLPSIUHFYHQWXWLOL]DWHVXQWDQXOWULPHVWUXOOXQDV SW PkQD]LXD

{ 2 VHULH FURQRORJLF  SRDWH IL SULYLW  FD R YDULDELO  DOHDWRDUH , deoarece valorile
LQGLYLGXDOH VH IRUPHD]  FD XUPDUH D DF LXQLL OD PRPHQWH VDX LQWHUYDOH GH WLPS GLIHULWH XQXL

ansamblu diferit de factori comuni sauVSHFLILFLHVHQ LDOLsauQHHVHQ LDOLHWF

{ &DUDFWHUL]DUHDHYROX LHLvQWLPSDXQXLIHQRPHQFXDMXWRUXO6&5VSHFLILFHSUHVXSXQHca
WLPSXOV ILHYDULDELOLDUVSD LXOúLVWUXFWXUDRUJDQL]DWRULF V ILHFRQVWDQWH Prin urmare, într-

o SCR variabila y este OHJDW IXQF LRQDOGHYDULDELODWLPS(fiecare moment sau interval de timp
corespunde unei valori individuale a caracteristicii y), GDUQXúLLQYHUVDFHHDúLYDORDUHLQGLYLGXDO 
SRDWHILvQUHJLVWUDW vQPDLPXOWHPRPHQWHVDXLQWHUYDOHGHWLPS'HFLR6&5SRDWHILVFULV DVWIHO

y=f(t) (9.1)
unde:
- variabila "timp" t, ia valorile ti (cu i = 1, núLQXWUHEXLHLQWHUSUHWDW FDIDFWRUGHLQIOXHQ 

al variabilei y.
- variabila "y" ia valorile individuale yi .
$QDOL]D6&5VHGHRVHEHúWHGHDQDOL]DVHULLORUGHUHSDUWL LHVDXDVHULLORUWHULWRULDOHGHRDUHFH

vQ DQDOL]D ORU VH SUHVXSXQH R DQXPLW  VWDELOLWDWH VWUXFWXUDO  D GLVWULEX LLORU R DQXPLW 

SHUPDQHQ DLQWHUGHSHQGHQ HORUGLQWUHYDULDELOH

{ 2 VHULH FURQRORJLF  SRDWH IL FRQVLGHUDW  XQ HúDQWLRQ DO UHDOL] ULORU XQXL SURFHV

stohastic, RUGRQDWGXS YDULDELODWLPSt = 1, T ).

6HULD FURQRORJLF  VSUH GHRVHELUH GH RULFDUH DOW WLS GH VHULH VWDWLVWLF  SUH]LQW  R VHULH GH

SDUWLFXODULW LGLQWUHFDUHSUHFL] PXUP WRDUHOH

a) Variabilitatea termenilor unei SCR, RJOLQGHúWH SURFHVXO GHVFKLPEDUHGHWUDQVIRUPDUH

úLGHGH]YROWDUHvQWLPSDXQXLIHQRPHQ

b) 2PRJHQLWDWHD úL FRPSDUDELOLWDWHD VXQW SDUWLFXODULW LOH LQWHUFRQGL LRQDWH DOH 6&5

2PRJHQLWDWHD WHUPHQLORU GLVSHUVLD PLQLP  D WHUPHQLORU SUHVXSXQH H[LVWHQ D vQ SHULRDGD DQDOL]DW 

WHUPHQLLDXDFHHDúLHVHQ FDOLWDWLY  $VLJXUDUHD RPRJHQLW LLWHUPHQLORU GHWHUPLQ vQPRGLPSOLFLW

comparabilitatea acestora.
F$VLJXUDUHDRPRJHQLW LLWHUPHQLORUXQHL6&5vQFDGUXOXQXLLQWHUYDOGHWLPSLPSOLF úLRDOW 

particularitate: LQWHUGHSHQGHQ DvQWLPSDWHUPHQLORU0 ULPHDILHF UXLWHUPHQDO6&5GHSLQGHvQWU -o

P VXU  PDL PDUH VDX PDL PLF  GH YDORULOH LQGLYLGXDOH DOH DFHOHLDúL FDUDFWHULVWLFL UHDOL]DWH DQWHULRU

,QWHUGHSHQGHQ DGLQWUHWHUPHQLLXQHL6&5QHFHVLW DQDOL]DDXWRFRUHOD LHLDWHQGLQ HORUGHPDQLIHVWDUHvQ

WLPSDIHQRPHQHORUHWFÌQIXQF LHGHQDWXUDFDUDFWHULVWLFLORUGHVWRFVDXGHIOX[REVHUYDUHDVWDWLVWLF  se

face continuu, în decursul unui anumit interval, sau la momente de timp distincte. 'LQDFHDVW FDX] 
vQ SUDFWLF  H[LVW  SCR de momente sau P ULPL GH VWRF úL SCR de intervale sau P ULPL GH IOX[

'HRVHELUHDGLQWUHFHOHGRX VHULLHVWHHVHQ LDO úLDUHLPSOLFD LLDVXSUDPHWRGRORJLHLVWDWLVWLFHGHDQDOL] 

Astfel:
- Termenii unei serii cronologice de momente nu sunt însumabiliHLFRQ LQDFHOHHOHPHQWH
DOH VWRFXOXL FDUH FRH[LVW  vQ PRG UHSHWDW vQ PRPHQWH GLIHULWH GH WLPS 'H H[HPSOX VWRFXO GH

SURGXVHILQLWHGLQ GHSR]LWHOHXQHLVRFLHW LFRPHUFLDOHODGLIHULWHPRPHQWHGHWLPSYDORDUHDPHGLH

OXQDU DFDSLWDO ului fix etc.

- 7HUPHQLL XQHL VHULL GH LQWHUYDOH VXQW P ULPL GH IOX[ Ei sunt însumabili deoarece se
IRUPHD]  SULQ FXPXODUH FRQWLQX  SH P VXUD FXUJHULL WLPSXOXL 8Q IOX[ HVWH GHFL XQ HYHQLPHQW

produs într-RSHULRDG GHWLPSGHH[HPSOXGH]YROWDUHDXQXLSDUFGHDXWRPRELOHvQWUHúL

VDX PRGLILFDUHD QXP UXOXL SRSXOD LHL vQWUH GRX  UHFHQV PLQWH 'LIHULWH IOX[XUL SRW IRUPD XQ VWRF

WRWDO GH H[HPSOX IRUPDUHD EUXW  D FDSLWDOXOXL IL[ HVWH XQ IOX[ FDUH DIHFWHD]  VWRFXO FDSLWDO IL[

'LIHUHQ DGLQWUHIOX[úLVWRFSRDWHILVHVL]DW úLGLQILJ

y y
y3 . y3 .
y2 . y2 .
y1 . y1 .
t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t

)LHFDUHYDORDUHLQGLYLGXDO VH )LHFDUHYDORDUHLQGLYLGXDO VH

UDSRUWHD] ODXQPRPHQWGHWLPS UDSRUWHD] ODXQLQWHUYDOGHWLPS

)LJXUD'LIHUHQ DGLQWUHIOX[úLVWRF

ÌQ IXQF LH GH QXP UXO WHUPHQLORU VHULLOH FURQRORJLFH DX OXQJLPH PLF  PHGLH VDX PDUH .
'DF  VHULLOH GH OXQJLPH PLF  DX PDL PXOW FDUDFWHU GH LQIRUPDUH GH SRSXODUL]DUH GLQ SXQFWXO GH

YHGHUHDODQDOL]HLVWDWLVWLFHSUH]LQW LQWHUHV6&5GHOXQJLPHPHGLHúLPDUH3HED]DDFHVWRUWLSXULGH

SCR,OHJHDQXPHUHORUPDULDYkQGFkPSGHDF LXQHVHGHVSULQGOHJLW LOHGHHYROX LHFRPSRQHQWHOH

DFHVWRUDVHHODERUHD] YDULDQWHGHSURJQR] 

5(35(=(17 5,*5 AFICE ALE SCR

(YROX LD XQXL IHQRPHQ SUH]HQWDW  vQWU R 6&5 SRDWH IL YL]XDOL]DW  vQ WUHL WLSXUL G
- e
UHSUH]HQW UL JUDILFH WUDVDWH în axe ortogonale; în diagrame semilogaritmice; în coordonate

polare.
a) Grafice trasate în coordonate rectangulare. Ele sunt elaborate în baza unor norme cum
ar fi:
{ WLPSXO VH LD vQ FRQVLGHUD LH SH D[D DEVFLVHORU LDU YDORU ile variabilei y pe axa
ordonatelor;
{ SXQFWHOHVXQWOHJDWHSULQVHJPHQWHGHGUHDSW úLQLFLRGDW SULQFXUEH

{ DIODUHD VF ULL GH UHSUH]HQWDUH D GDWHORU SH D[D RUGRQDWHORU vQ IXQF LH GH DPSOLWXGLQHD

YDULD LHL'HP ULPHDVF ULLGHUHSUH]HQWDUHGHSLQGHDSODWL] area" graficului;

{ WUHEXLH HIHFWXDW  vQWUHUXSHUHD D[HL   SHQWUX D HYLWD GHSODVDUHD JUDILFXOXL úL LPSOLFLW
y
H[DJHU ULOHGHLQWHUSUHWDUH

ÌQ JUDILFXO GLQ ILJXUD  VH YL]XODOL]HD]  HYROX LD WULPHVWULDO  vQ PLL OHL D XQHL VRFLHW L

comerciale:
 (mil. lei)
. .
.. .
140
130 .
120
.
110 . . .
100
. .
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV t
1998 1999 2000 2001

)LJ(YROX LDSURGXF LHLWULPHVWULDOHPLOOHLDXQHL

VRFLHW LFRPHUFLDOH

'LQJUDILFXOGHPDLVXVVHGLVWLQJHXúRUWHQGLQ DJHQHUDO vQFHLSDWUXDQLLDUIOXFWXD LLOHID 

de aceasta sunt destul de ample.

b) Grafice semilongitudinale. $FHVWH WLSXUL GH JUDILFH XWLOL]HD]  VF UL GH UHSUH]HQWDUH
logaritmice atunci când:
{ H[LVW  PDUL GLIHUHQ H vQWUH YDORULOH YDULDELOHL DQDOL]DWH SHQWUX D HYLWD LHVLUHD
graficului din axele carteziene
{ VHGRUHúWHV VHSXQ vQHYLGHQ DSDUL LDYDULD LLORUUHODWLYH
{ VHXUP UHúWHOLQLDUL]DUHDXQHLHYROX LLH[SRQHQ LDOHILJHWF
'H H[HPSOX HYROX LD XQXL IHQRPHQ y FDUH SUH]LQW  XQ ULWP FRQVWDQW GH FUHúWHUH VH

YL]XDOL]HD]  vQ ILJXUD  XWLOL]kQG DWkW FRRUGRQDWH UHFWDQJXODUH KkUWLH DULWPHWLF  FkW úL VFDUD GH

UHSUH]HQWDUHORJDULWPLF KkUWLHVHPLORJDULWPLF 

Re\eaaritmetic‘ Re\ea semi logaritmi c‘

y (de exemplu, mm) y
) y^
y
Echivalent
) y^
y

t t
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

)LJ(YROX LDXQXLIHQRPHQvQUH HOHDULWPHWLFHúLVHPLORJDULWPLFH

$FHVWH JUDILFH VXQW HODERUDWH DWXQFL FkQG VH GRUHúWH HYLGHQ LHUHD YDULD LLORU VH]RQLHUH GLQ

HYROX LDXQXLIHQRPHQ

3ULQFLSLXO JHQHUDO GH HODERUDUH D DFHVWRU JUDILFH HVWH XUP WRUXO VH WUDVHD]   D[H JUDGDWH
0
GHVS U LWH GH XQJKLXUL  HJDOH FX  (300=3600 )LHFDUH D[  JUDGDW  vQ VFDU  DULWPHWLF 

FRUHVSXQGH XQHL OXQL 3ULQ XQLUHD SXQFWHORU GH SH ILHFDUH D[  GHS UWDWH GLIHULW ID  GH FHQWUX vQ

IXQF LHGHP ULPHDWHUPHQLORUOXQDULVHYL]XDOL]HD] YDULD LDVH]RQLHU FLFOLF FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH

'H H[HPSOX VH FXQRVF XUP WRDUHOH GDWH GHVSUH QXP UXO OXQDU DO WXULúWLORU vQ PLL GLQWU -o
VWD LXQH

Yt I F M A M I I A S O N D
2000 10 8 7 10 3 2 6 7 7 2 3 9
2001 11 10 9 9 2 1 7 9 10 3 1 10
 *UDILFXOFRUHVSXQ] WRUGDWHORUSUH]HQWDWHPDLVXVHVWHXUP WRUXOILJ

)LJXUD(YROX LDQXP UXOXLvQPLLGHWXULúWL

9.3. SISTEMUL DE INDICATORI STATISTICI AI SERIILOR

CRONOLOGICE
3HQWUXFDUDFWHUL]DUHDHYROX LHLXQXLIHQRPHQGHPDV vQFRPSOH[LWDWHDVDGLQWHUPHQLLXQHL

6&5 VH FDOFXOHD]  XQ VLVWHP GH LQGLFDWRUL VWDWLVWLFL DQDOLWLFL úL VLQWHWLFL ÌQ IXQF LH GH PRGXO GH

FDOFXO úL GH H[SULPDUH LQGLFDWRULL GLQ VLVWHP VXQW VWUXFWXUD L vQ LQGLFDWRUL DEVROX L , indicatori
relativiúLindicatori medii.

,QGLFDWRULH[SULPD LSULQP ULPLDEVROXWH

,QGLFDWRULLDEVROX LH[SULP VWDUHDIHQRPHQXOXLLQYHVWLJDWGLQWU RSHULRDG VDXPRPHQWGH

-
WLPS VDXPRGLILF ULOH DS UXWH VXFFHVLY vQ WLPS ÌQ P ULPL DEVROXWH vQ XQLW LOHFRQFUHWH GH P VXU 

OHL P NJ HWF DOH FDUDFWHULVWLFLORU XUP ULWH VH FDOFXOHD]  úL VH DQDOL]HD]  LQGLFDWRUL VWDWLVWLFL FDUH

UHGDX QLYHOXO YROXPXO DJUHJDW WRWDOXO PRGLILF ULOH FUHúWHULOH VDX GHVFUHúWHULOH ID  GH GLIHULWH

SHULRDGHGHUHIHULQ 'LQFDWHJRULDDFHVWRULQGLFDWRULIDFSDUWH

 9DORULOH LQGLYLGXDOH DOH FDUDFWHULVWLFLL LQGLFDWRUL GH QLYHO FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH FRQGL LLORU

VSHFLILFHGHSURGXFHUHúLUHSURGXFHUHDOHIHQRPHQXOXLXUP ULW Yt t = 1, T
T
2) Volumul agregat sau suma termenilor SCR de intervale.(t Y t ). Acest indicator se
=1
FDOFXOHD] FXSUHFDX LHGHRDUHFHQXWRDWHFDUDFWHULVWLFLOHDXYDULDQWHOHvQVXPDELOH

0RGLILFDUHDDEVROXW VSRUXODEVROXWFUHúWHUHDVDXGHVFUHúWHUHDDEVROXW H[SULP FXFkWH

XQLW L GH P VXU  V D PRGLILFDW YDORDUHD LQGLYLGXDO  GLQWU R SHULRDG  ID

- -  GH R SHULRDG  ED]  GH

FRPSDUD LHIL[ VDXPRELO 3ULQXUPDUHVHFDOFXOHD] 

{ PRGLILFDUHDEVROXW FXED] IL[ 

Y
t / 0 = Y t − Y 0 ; cu (t = 1, T ) (9.2)

{ PRGLILFDUHDDEVROXW FXED] PRELO 

Y
t / t − 1 = Y t − Y t−1 ; (t = 1, T ) (9.3)
 &RQ LQXWúLUHOD LLOHGHFDOFXODOHPRGLILF ULLDEVROXWHQHFHVLW XUP WRDUHOHREVHUYD LL

-ED] IL[ GHFRPSDUD LHSRDWHILRULFDUHWHUPHQDOVHULHL$OHJHUHDED]HLIL[HGHFRPSDUD LH

QXWUHEXLHV DIHFWH]HFRPSDUDELOLWDWHDWHUPHQLORU

- WUHFHUHD GH OD PRGLILF ULOH DEVROXWH FX ED]  IL[  OD FHOH FX ED]  PRELO  úL LQYHUV VH

UHDOL]HD] FXDMXWRUXOUHOD LLORUXUP WRDUH

Y
 t/ 0 = Y t−1/ 0 − Y t/ t−1 ; cu (t = 1, T ) (9.4)
úL
T y
Y
 t / t −1 =   t / t −1
t+1 (9.5)
5HOD LLOH GH WUHFHUH GH OD R ED]  OD DOWD    VH XWLOL]HD]  vQ PRG IUHFHYHQW SHQWUX
-
reconstituirea SCR de GDWHDEVROXWHDWXQFLFkQGQXVHGLVSXQHGHVHULDWHUPHQLORULQL LDOL

$SOLFD LD  0RGLILF ULOH DEVROXWH DOH UXODMXOXL GH P UIXUL OD VRFLHWDWHD FRPHUFLDO 

"ANDMIR" S.A., în perioada 1998 -VHSUH]LQW vQFRORDQHOHúLGLQWDEHOXO

Tabelul 9.1.
0RGLILF ULDEVROXWHDOHUXODMXOXLGHP UIXUL

(mil. lei) la "ANDMIR"S.A.

Anii Rulajul de 0RGLILF ULOHDEVROXWHDOHUXODMXOXLGH

P UIXUL P UIXULID GHQLYHOXODQXOXL


(mil.lei) Y
1998  ∆ 
    −
Precedent  ∆  

1998 500 -
1999 480 -20 -20
2000 510 10 30
2001 540 40 30
TOTAL 2030 - 40

-ÌQFD]XOvQFDUH6&5VXQWSHULRGL]DWHED]DGHFRPSDUD LHVHLDGHUHJXO SULPXOWHUPHQDO

subperioadei analizate sau ultimul termen al subperioadei precedente.
-0RGLILF ULOHDEVROXWHSRWDYHDVHPQLILFD LDHFRQRPLHLVDXDSLHUGHULORUDEVROXWH
$FHúWLLQGLFDWRULQXSRWILXWLOL]D LvQFRPSDUDUHDHYROX LHLPDLPXOWRUIHQRPHQHGHPDV 

,QGLFDWRULH[SULPD LSULQP ULPLUHODWLYH

,QGLFDWRULLH[SULPD LSULQP ULPLUHODWLYHVSUHGHRVHELUHGHLQGLFDWRULLDEVROX LSRWILXWLOL]D L

vQ DQDOL]D FRPSDUDWLY  D HYROX LHL PDL PXOWRU IHQRPHQH (L UHGDX SURSRU LD VDX GHFDODMXO GLQ

nivelurile realizate ale unei caracteristici în perioade distincte. Prin urmare, indicatorii relativi
H[SULP  GHFkWH RUL YDORDUHD XQHL YDULDELOH HVWHPDL PDUH VDX PDL PLF  ID  GHFHDDOHDV  FD ED] 

GH FRPSDUD LH FX FkW OD VXW  V D PRGLILFDW YDORDUHD FDUDFWHULVWLFLL vQ SHULRDGD UDSRUWDW  ID
-  GH FHD

GLQSHULRDGDGHUHIHULQ ED]DGHUDSR rtare).

ÌQDFHDVW FDWHJRULHGHLQGLFDWRULVHGLVWLQJ

1) ,QGLFHOH GH GLQDPLF  $FHVWD VH H[SULP  VXE IRUP  GH FRHILFLHQW VDX vQ SURFHQWH úL

VHPQLILF  GH FkWH RUL GH FkW OD VXW  V D PRGLILFDW YDORDUHD FDUDFWHULVWLFLL ID
-  GH SHULRDGD

ED] GHFRPSDUD LHIL[ VDXPRELO 5HOD LLOHVDOHGHFDOFXOVXQW

{ SHQWUXLQGLFHOHGHGLQDPLF FXED] IL[ 

Yt
I Yt/ 0 = Y0  100 ; (t = (1, T ) (9.6)

{ SHQWUXLQGLFHOHGHGLQDPLF FXED] PRELO 

Yt
I Yt/ 0 = Y0  100 ; (t = 1, T ) (9.7)
 2EVHUYD LL

- $FHúWL LQGLFL GH GLQDPLF  GDF  VXQW VXSUDXQLWDUL VDX VXEXQLWDUL GHVHPQHD]  FUHúWHUL VDX

GHVFUHúWHUL

- 7UHFHUHD GH OD LQGLFL GH GLQDPLF  FX ED]  PRELO  OD DFHLD FX ED]  IL[  VH UHDOL]HD]  FX

DMXWRUXOXUP WRDUHORUUHOD LL

T
T Yt/ t−1 = I YT / 0 cu (t = 1, T )
t =1 (9.8)
I t/ 0
I Yt−1/ 0
= I Yt/ t−1
(9.9)

([HPSOLILFDUHDPRGXOXLGHFDOFXODLQGLFLORUGHGLQDPLF HVWHHIHFWXDW v n $SOLFD LD

2) 5LWPXO PRGLILF sau ritmul (rata) sporului este un alt indicator relativ.
ULORU UHODWLYH

$FHVW LQGLFDWRU H[SULP  FX FkW OD VXW  V-a modificat nivelul înregistrat, de caracteristica

DQDOL]DW  vQWU-R DQXPLW  SHULRDG  ID  GH QLYHOXO GLQ SHULRDGD ED]  GH FRPSDUD LH Ritmul

PRGLILF ULLUHODWLYHVHFDOFXOHD] 

- ILH FD UDSRUW vQWUH PRGLILFDUHD DEVROXW  FX ED]  IL[  VDX PRELO  úL P ULPHD WHUPHQXOXL

GLQSHULRDGDED] GHFRPSDUD LHIL[ VDXPRELO 

- fie ca raport între modificarea absoluW  FX ED]  IL[  VDX PRELO  úL P ULPHD WHUPHQXOXL

GLQSHULRDGDED] GHFRPSDUD LHIL[ VDXPRELO 

- ILH SULQ GLIHUHQ D GLQWUH LQGLFHOH GH GLQDPLF  FX ED]  IL[  VDX PRELO  H[SULPDW vQ

SURFHQWHúL

Prin urmare:
-ULWPXOFXED] IL[ 

Y
R Yt/ 0 = t/ 0
Y0  100 = I Yt/ 0  100 − 100 cu (t = 1, T ) (9.10)

-ULWPXOFXED] PRELO 

 Y
R Yt/ t−1 = t/ t−1
Y0  100 = I Yt/ t−1  100 − 100 cu (t = 1, T ) (9.11)

3) 9DORDUHD DEVROXW  D XQXL SURFHQW GH FUHúWHUH Acest indicator absolut ca mod de
H[SULPDUH GDUFDPRGGHFDOFXOSULQUDSRUWDUHVHGHWHUPLQ FRPSDUkQGPRGLILF ULOHDEVROXWHFX

ED]  IL[  VDX PRELO  FX ULWPXO PRGLILF ULORU UHODWLYH FX ED]  IL[  VDX PRELO  3ULQ XUPDUH

YDORDUHDDEVROXW DXQXLSURFHQWGHFUHúWHUHVHFDOFXOHD] 

-FXED] IL[ 

Y  Y0
AYt/ 0 = Y
t/ 0
R t/ 0 1 00 = 100 pentr u or i ce (t = 1, T )
(9.12)

-FXED] PRELO 

Y  Y t−1
AYt/ t−1 = Y
t / t−1
R t/ t−1 100  = 10 0 pentr u or i ce (t = 1, T )
(9.13)

5D LRQDPHQWXOGHWHUPLQ ULLYDORULLDEVROXWHDXQXLSURFHQWGHFUHúWHUHGXS VDXDUH

ODED] UHSDUWL]DUHDXQLIRUP DPRGLILF ULLDEVROXWH SHSURFHQWHOHULWPXOXLGHPRGLILFDUHUHODWLY 5

)
'LQDFHDVW FDX] HOH[SULP FkWHXQLW LGHP VXU UHYLQXQHLFUHúWHULGHXQSURFHQW

2 SUREOHP  GHRVHELW  SHQWUX FDOFXOXO LQGLFDWRULORU UHODWLYL úL DEVROX L R UHSUH]LQW  DOHJHUHD

WHUPHQXOXL ED]  GH FRPSDUD LH $FHDVWD WUHEXLH V  ILH VXERUGRQDW  FHULQ HL GH DVLJXUDUH D
FRPSDUDELOLW LL WHUPHQLORU GLQ 6&5 &X FkW ED]D GH FRPSDUD LH HVWH PDL ELQD DOHDV  FX DWkW VH

seVL]HD] PDLELQHUHJXODULWDWHDPLúF ULLvQWLPSDIHQRPHQXOXLDQDOL]DW

$SOLFD LD  &DOFXOXO LQGLFDWRULORU UHODWLYL UHIHULWRUL OD UXODMXO GH P UIXUL OD $1'0,5

6$7DEHOXOVHSUH]LQW vQWDEHOXO

Tabelul 9.2.
Anii InGLFLGHGLQDPLF  5LWPXOPRGLILF ULL 9DORDUHDDEVROXW 

(%) relative (%) a unui procent de

FXED]  FXED]  FXED]  FXED]  FUHúWHUH

IL[ PRELO IL[ PRELO (mil. lei)

1998 100 - - - -
1999 96 96 -4 -4 5
2000 102 106,25 2 6,25 4,8
2001 108 105,88 8 5,88 5,1
9DORDUHD DEVROXW  D XQXL  GLQ FUHúWHUH D UXODMXOXL GH P UIXUL OD $1'0,5 6$ ID  GH

1998 este de 5 milioane lei.

9.3.3. Indicatori medii ai SCR

3HQWUX FDUDFWHUL]DUHD WHQGLQ HL FHQWUDOH vQ VHULLOH FURQRORJLFH GH WHUPHQL DEVROX L úL

relativi eVWHQHFHVDUV VHFDOFXOH]HLQGLFDWRULPHGLLVSHFLILFLQLYHOXOPHGLXPRGLILFDUHDPHGLH

DEVROXW LQGLFHOHPHGLXGHGLQDPLF ULWPXOPHGLXDOPRGLILF ULLUHODWLYH

1) Nivelul mediu al termenilor dintr-o SCR. Calculul acestui indicator VHMXVWLILF QXPDL

GDF  WHUPHQLL 6&5 VXQW RPRJHQL DGLF  vQ RUL]RQWXO GH WLPS DQDOL]DW WHUPHQLL 6&5 QX SUH]LQW 

RVFLOD LL IRDUWH DPSOH 1LYHOXO PHGLX VH FDOFXOHD]  GLIHUHQ LDW SHQWUX 6&5 GH LQWHUYDOH IOX[ úL

pentru SCR de momente (de stoc):

{ pentru SCR de intervale (termeniL ILLQG vQVXPDELOL QLYHOXO PHGLX VH FDOFXOHD]  FX DMXWRUXO

mediei aritmetice simple:

T
 Yt
t =1
Y= T (9.14)

{ pentru SCR de momente GHVWRFQLYHOXOPHGLXVHFDOFXOHD] FXDMXWRUXO

- mediei cronologice simple GDF PRPHQWHOHVXQWHFKLGLVWDQWH
Y1 YT
+Y 2 +.. .+Y T −1 +
Y CR = 2
T −1
2
(9.15)

- mediei cronologice ponderate GDF PRPHPWHOHVXQWLQHJDOGLVWDQ DWH

Y CR =
Y1
P1
2  P +P
+Y 2 1 2 2 +. ..+Y T +  PT
2
P ‘1 +P 2 +. ..+P T (9.16)

unde: P 1 (cu t = 1, T ) VHPQLILF  OXQJLPHD vQ XQLW L GH WLPS GLQWUH GRX  PRPHQWH

succesive.
'XS  UHOD LD  VH FDOFXOHD]  YDORULOH PHGLL WULPHVWULDOH VDX DQXDOH DOH FDSLWDOXO ui fix,
QXP UXOGHVDODULD LHWFSHQWUXDIDFLOLWDFRPSDUD LLOHFXLQGLFDWRULGHIOX[GHH[HPSOXSURGXF LD

RE LQX L vQ SHULRDGD UHVSHFWLY  'LQ DFHVWH FRPSDUD LL VH RE LQ LQGLFDWRUL FDOLILFDWLYL QLYHOXO

SURGXFWLYLW LLPXQFLLHILFLHQ DFDSLWDOXOXLI ix etc.

$SOLFD LD  (YROX LD VWRFXOXL GH P UIXUL GLQ GHSR]LWHOH XQHL VRFLHW L FRPHUFLDOH VH

SUH]LQW DVWIHO
 Tabelul 9.3.
Data 6WRFXOGHP UIXULVXWHOHL

1.01.2000 50850
1.02.2000 48950
1.03.2000 49370
1.04.2000 53410
1.06.2000 50630
1.10.2000 55100
1.01.2001 40400

6WRFXO DQXDO GH P UIXUL GLQ GHSR]LWHOH VRFLHW LL FRPHUFLDOH $1'0,5 6$ VH FDOFXOHD] 

astfel:
30 30+30
5 0 85 0 +4 8 9 5 0 +4 9 3 7 0 30+30 +5 3 4 10 30+60 +5 0 6 3 0 60+120
Y CR = 2 2
30 60 60 90 180
2
210 90
2 2
+
2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2

120+90
55100 +4 0 4 00 90
+ 30
+ 60
+ 60
2
+ 2 + 2 + 210
90 180
2
90 = 50767
2 2 2 2 + 2 sute lei/an.

2) 0RGLILFDUHD PHGLH DEVROXW  VH FDOFXOHD]  FD PHGLH DULWPHWLF  VLPSO  D PRGLILF ULO or
DEVROXWH FX ED]  PRELO  GHWHUPLQDWH SH RUL]RQWXO GH WLPS DO 6&5 5HOD LD GH FDOFXO HVWH

XUP WRDUHD

T  Y 
 t / t −1 Y
t=2
 = T −1 = T/1
T −1 (9.17)

unde T-1 = QXP UXOPRGLILF ULORUDEVROXWHFXED] PRELO 

5HSUH]HQWDWLYLWDWHDPRGLILF ULL PHGLLDEVROXWHVSRUXOPHGLX VDXUHGXFHUHD PHGLHDEVROXW 

HVWH DVLJXUDW  QXPDL GDF  PRGLILF ULOH DEVROXWHFX ED]  PRELO VXQW RPRJHQH DSUR[LPDWLY HJDOH

&RQGL LD YDULD LHL PLQLPH D PRGLILF ULORU DEVROXWH FX ED]  PRELO  WUHEXLH FX DWkW PDL PXOW

UHVSHFWDW  FX FkW PRGLILFDUHD PHGLH DEVROXW  VH FDOFXOHD]  úL SH ED]D UHOD LHL GLQWUH SULPXO úL

XOWLPXO WHUPHQ 6&5  I U  V  VH LD vQ FRQVLGHU are WHUPHQLL LQWHUPHGLDUL ÌQ FD]XO vQ FDUH úLUXO
PDQLIHVW  R UHJXODULWDWH OLQLDU  GDWRULW  XQRU WHQGLQ H RSXVH GH H[HPSOX R HYROX LH DSUR[LPDWLY

SDUDEROLF HVWHQHFHVDUV VHSHULRGL]H]H6&56HYRUFDOFXODPRGLILF ULOHPHGLLDEVROXWHSDU LDOH

LDUDSRLSHED]DDFHVWRUDVHFDOFXOHD] YDORDUHDWLSLF SHQWUXvQWUHDJD6&5

3) ,QGLFHOH PHGLX GH GLQDPLF  VH FDOFXOHD]  FD PHGLH JHRPHWULF  D LQGLFLORU GH GLQDPLF 

FXED] PRELO 

T YT
I = T −1 IY =
t =2 t / t−1 Y1
(9.18)

unde: T-1  QXP UXO GH LQGLFL GH GLQDPLF FX ED]  PRELO 5HOD LD  SXQH vQ HYLGHQ 

IDSWXO F  LQGLFHOH PHGLXGH GLQDPLF DUDW  GH FkWH RUL GDF  VHH[SULP vQ FRHILFLHQW VDX GHFkW OD

VXW GDF VHH[SULP vQSURFHQ te) s-a modificat fenomenul analizat, în medie, în cadrul orizontului
de timp al SCR.
1LYHOXO LQGLFHOXL PHGLX GH GLQDPLF  FDOFXODW GXS  UHOD LD  HVWH UHSUH]HQWDWLY SHQWUX

HYROX LDIHQRPHQXOXLSUH]HQWDWvQFDGUXO6&5QXPDLGDF LQGLFLLGHGLQDPLF FXED] PRELO VXQW

DSUR[LPDWLY HJDOL $FHDVW  FHULQ  HVWH FX DWkW PDL LPSRUWDQW  FX FkW LQGLFHOH PHGLX GH GLQDPLF 

 VH SRDWH FDOFXOD úL vQ IXQF LH QXPDL GH WHUPHQL H[WUHPL DL 6&5 I U  V  LD vQ FRQVLGHUDUH

termenii intermediari. În cazul în care seULDGHLQGLFLFXED] PRELO QXHVWHRPRJHQ HVWHQHFHVDU 

SHULRGL]DUHD6&5vQ.LQWHUYDOHGHWLPS$WXQFLLQGLFHOHPHGLXGHGLQDPLF SHRUL]RQWXOGHWLPS

DO 6&5 VH FDOFXOHD]  vQ IXQF LH GH LQGLFLL PHGLL GH GLQDPLF  FRUHVSXQ] WRUL FHORU . LQWHUYDOH

GXS UHOD LDXUP WRDUH

1
k −1
K −1 Tj  tj
I = Ij j =2
j =2 (9.19)

unde: I j =LQGLFHOHPHGLXSDU LDOGHGLQDPLF SHQWUXLQWHUYDOXOM

Tj QXP UXOGH LQGLFLFXED] PRELO vQIXQF LHGHFDUHVHFDOFXOHD] ILHFDUHLQGLFH

PHGLXSDU LDO
I j );
K = QXP UXOGHLQWHUYDOHGHWLPSRPRJ ene în care s-a periodizat orizontul de timp al
SCR.
4) Ritmul mediu al dinamicii (R  VDX UDWD PHGLH GH FUHúWHUH VDX GHVFUHúWHUH - un alt
indicator mediu - H[SULP  FX FkWH SURFHQWH IHQRPHQXO DQDOL]DW V-a modificat în medie de la un
interval/moment de timpODDOWXO(OVHFDOFXOHD] SHED]DLQGLFHOXLPHGLXDOGLQDPLFLLGXS UHOD LD
(9.20):
Y Y
R =I  100 − 100 (9.20)

3ULQ XUPDUH DQDOL]D VWDWLVWLF  D 6&5 SUHVXSXQH FDOFXOXO LQGLFDWRULORU DEVROX L UHODWLYL úL

PHGLL vQWUH FDUH H[LVW  UHOD LL GH VLVWHP 6LVWHPXO GH LQGLFDWRUL DL 6&5 RIHU  LQIRUPD LL VLQWHWLFH úL

DQDOLWLFH GHVSUH HYROX LD XQXL IHQRPHQ GH PDV  vQWU -un orizont de timp. Cu toate acestea ei nu
SHUPLW HYDOXDUHD FRPSRQHQWHORU GHWHUPLQDWH GH LQIOXHQ D IDFWRULORU VSHFLILFL úL JHQHUDOL FDUH

DF LRQHD] vQVXESHULR adele orizontului de timp al SCR.

9.4. ANALIZA STATIST,& $&20321(17(/25 SCR

(YROX LD XQXL IHQRPHQ GH PDV  SUH]HQWDW  vQWU R 6&5 FD XUPDUH D GLYHUúLORU IDFWRUL GH
-
LQIOXHQ  RJOLQGHúWH VFKLPEDUHD WUDQVIRUPDUHD úL GH]YROWDUHD ÌQWU -o SCR de lungime
suficient de mare FD XUPDUH D DF LXnilor factorilRU GH LQIOXHQ  vQ HYROX LD XQXL IHQRPHQ se

LGHQWLILF  PDL PXOWH FRPSRQHQWH GH P ULPL GLIHULWH ,GHQWLILFDUHD úL HYDOXDUHD FRPSRQHQWHORU

VHULLORU FURQRORJLFH HVWH SUHFHGDW  GH YHULILFDUHD RPRJHQLW LL úL FRPSDUDELOLW LL WHUPHQLORU

SCR, de analiza sistemului de indicatori prezentat.

9.4.1. Definirea componentelor seriilor cronologice

'LQ JUDILFXO WLS ILJ  DO XQHL VHULL FURQRORJLFH VXILFLHQW GH PDUH VH REVHUY 

XUP WRDUHOH

1) Pe întregul orizont al SCR fHQRPHQXO DQDOL]DW SUH]LQW  R HYROX LH FUHVF WRDUH $FHDVW 

WHQGLQ  JHQHUDO  HVWH UHSUH]HQWDW  SULQ WUHQGXO PDQLIHVWDW GH IHQRPHQXO XUP ULW GH -a lungul
perioadei. &RPSRQHQWD WUHQG VLQWHWL]HD]  YDULD LLOH VLVWHPDWLFH OHQWH úL VHPQLILF  PLúFDUHD

UHJXODW GHVI úXUDW GHIHQRPHQXODQDOL]DWSHvQWUHJXORUL]RQWDO6&50 ULPHDFRPSRQHQWHL

WUHQGHVWHGHWHUPLQDW GHLQIOXHQ DIDFWRULORUHVHQ LDOLFDUHDF LRQHD] vQvQWUHDJDSHULRDG 

Varia\ii sezoniere
T rend

Varia\ie accidental‘
ciclu
t1... t5... t15... t20... t30... t
 Fig. 9.5. Graficul "tip" al unei serii cronologice

(VWLPDUHD WHQGLQ HL JHQHUDOH VDX DMXVWDUHD WUHQGXOXL VH HIHFWXHD]  SULQ GLIHULWH PHWRGH

FRUHVSXQ] WRDUHIRUPHLPDQLIHVWDWHGHDFHVWDOLQLDUSDUDEROLFH[SRQHQ LDOORJLVWLFKLSHUEROLFHWF

2) Într-R VHULH FURQRORJLF  ILJ  GH OXQJLPH VXILFLHQW GH PDUH ID  GH WHQGLQ D FHQWUDO 

WUHQG VH vQWkOQHVF RVFLOD LL VDX YDULD LL SHULRGLFH VLVWHPDWLF UHSHWDELOH ÌQ IXQF LH GH QDWXUD

IDFWRULORU GH LQIOXHQ  FDUH GHWHUPLQ  DFHVWH RVFLOD LL GH P ULPHD SHULRDGHORU OD FDUH VH PDQLIHVW 

UHSHWDELOLWDWHDDFHVWRUDVHLGHQWLILF YDULD LLRVFLOD LLFLFOLFHVDXVH]RQLHUH

2VFLOD LLOHFLFOLFHVXQWIOXFWXD LLvQMXUXOWUHQGXOXLGHWLSVLQXVRLGDOUHSHWDELOHODSHULRDGH

de timp mai mari de un an. Un ciclu (fig. 9.6) cuprinde mai multe faze: H[SDQVLXQHFUL] UHFHVLXQH
relansare.
CiclicitDWHDHVWHGHWHUPLQDW GHIDFWRULGHQDWXU GLYHUV FDUHDF LRQHD] DVXSUDIHQRPHQXOXL
DQDOL]DW ÌQ WHRULD HFRQRPLF  XQLL FHUFHW WRUL QX VXQW GH DFRUG FX H[LVWHQ D FLFOXULORU LDU DO LL OH

DSURIXQGHD] GLQ SXQFWGHYHGHUHPHWRGRORJLFúL OHFODVLILF  vQFLF luri lungi de tip Kondratiev (cu
SHULRGLFLWDWH GH  GH DQL FLFOXUL GHWLSMXJXODU FX SHULRGLFLWDWH GH DSUR[ DQLFLFOXUL .LWFLQ úL

cicluri politico-economice etc.

yt Cri z‘
e
nsi un

Re
ce
E xpa

si u

Rel ansare
ne

t
Fig.9.6. Fazele unui ciclu

2 FDUDFWHULVWLF  D RVFLOD LLORU VH]RQLHUH 6t ) o repre]LQW  IDSWXO F  DFHVWHD VH SURGXF FX R

SHULRGLFLWDWHFRQVWDQW $VWIHOGDF GDWHOHVXQW

- trimestriale: S1=S5=S9=...H S t = S t+4 (9.20)

- lunare: S t − S t+12 (9.21)

În general, pentru o periodicitate "p" avem:

S t = S t+p = S t+2 p = ... (9.22)

&XQRDúWHUHD FRPSRQHQWHL VH]RQLHUH D SHULRGLFLW LL DFHVWRU RVFLOD LL SUH]LQW  PDUH LPSRUWDQ 

pentru planificare, pentru fundamentarea deciziilor.

3) În graficul din fig.9.5 se pot observa anumite YDULD LL UH]LGXDOH ( t ), DFFLGHQWDOH ID  GH
trend. Ele sunt GHWHUPLQDWH GH IDFWRUL vQWkPSO WRUL QHSUHY ]X L FUL]H LQWHUQD LRQDOH JUHYH
UHYROX LL FXWUHPXUH LQXQGD LL HWF 9DULD LLOH DFFLGHQWDOH VH PDQLIHVW  VXE IRUPD XQRU DEDWHUL PDUL

LPSUHYL]LELOHGHODFHHDFHHVWHVLVWHPDWLFvQHYROX LDIHQRPHQXOXLDQDOL]DW

ÌQ FDGUXO DFHOHLDúL 6&5 de lungime mare componentele prezentate sunt combinate aditiv,

multiplicativ sau mixt. 'HRDUHFH LQIOXHQ D WXWXURU IDFWRULORU VH PDQLIHVW  VLPXOWDQ vQ IRUPDUHD
termenilor SCR, separarea componentelor se face pe baza unor ipoteze simplificatoare, pe baza unor
DEVWUDFWL] UL1XH[LVW RPHWRG GHVHSDUDUHLGHDO DFRPSRQHQWHORUXQHL6&5
 'HWHUPLQDUHDWUHQGXOXLGLQHYROX LDIHQRPHQHORU

3UREOHPDSULQFLSDO vQDQDOL]D6&5RUHSUH]LQW GHWHUPLQDUHDWUHQGXOXLHVWLPDUHDWHQGLQ HL

JHQHUDOH D HYROX LHL XQX i fenomen (Yˆt , t = 1, T ) ÌQ DFHVW VFRS VH HOLPLQ  RVFLOD LLOH VH]RQLHUH
ˆ
FLFOLFH úL DFFLGHQWDOH úL VH vQORFXLHVF WHUPHQLL UHDOL Y t (t = 1, T ) cu termenii Y t (t = 1, T ) care

H[SULP WUHQGXO(VWLPDUHDWHQGLQ HLJHQHUDOHDIODUHDWHUPHQLORU

Yˆt VHHIHFWXHD] SULQRSHUD LLGH
ajustare a SCR. AjXVWDUHDVHHIHFWXHD] SULQmetode mecanice úLSULQmetode analitice.
a) Metode mecanice de ajustare a SCR utilizate frecvent sunt: metoda mediilor mobile
(MMM)PHWRGDJUDILF PHWRGDVSRUXOXLPHGLX(MSM); metoda indicelui mediu (MIM).
1) Metoda mediilor mobile 000 FD PHWRG  GH DMXVWDUH SUHVXSXQH vQORFXLUHD
WHUPHQLORU UHDOL DL 6&5 FX PHGLLOH ORU PRELOH JOLVDQWH VDX DOXQHF WRDUH 3ULQ DFHDVW  RSHUD LH VH

vQO WXU  LQIOXHQ D IDFWRULORU FDUH SURYRDF  RVFLOD LLOH SHULRGLFH DUH ORF FRPSHQVDUHD DEDWHULORU ID 

GH PHGLH úL VH RE LQH R QRX  6&5 FDUH HYLGHQ LD]  PLúFDUHD ODUJ  FRQWLQX  GLQ HYROX LD

fenomenului analizat.
0HGLLOH PRELOH 00 VXQW PHGLL DULWPHWLFH SDU LDOH FDOFXODWH GLQ GRL WUHL VDX PDL

PXO LWHUPHQLVXFFHVLYLDL6&51XP UXOWHUPHQLORUGLQFDUHVHFDOFXOHD] 00HVWHVWDELOLWvQ

IXQF LHGHSHULRGLFLWDWHDRVFLOD LLORUGLQ6&5 (fig. 9.7).

yt
P

Fig. 10.7. Evolu\iaunui fenomen cu varia\ie ciclic‘

&X FkW HVWH PDL PDUH QXP UXO GH WHUPHQL GLQ FDUH VH FDOFXOHD]  00 FX DWkW DMXVWDUHD HVWH

PDLSURQXQ DW FXDWkWHVWHPDLOLQJUDILFXORE LQXWSULQXQLUHDP ediilor mobile succcesive.

{ FD]XO FkQG 00 VH FDOFXOHD]  GLQWU XQ QXP
- U LPSDU GH WHUPHQL (de exemplu, p=3).
3URFHGXUDGHDIODUHDWHUPHQLORUFDUHHVWLPHD] WUHQGXOHVWHXUP WRDUHD

- VH FDOFXOHD]  SULPD PHGLD PRELO  GLQ SULPLL WUHL WHUPHQL <1,Y2,Y3) care va înlocui
termenul Y2.
-VHFDOFXOHD] DGRXDPHGLHPRELO GLQ<2,Y3,Y4 care va înlocui termenul Y3úDPG

Tabelul 9.4.
Y1 Medii mobile (MM) Valorile ajustate
1 Y1
2 Y2
3 Y3 Y 1 = (Y 1 + Y 2 + Y 3 )/ 3 = Yˆ1
4 Y4
Y 2 = (Y 2 + Y 3 + Y 4 )/ 3 = Yˆ2
5 Y5
6 Y6 Y 3 = (Y 3 + Y 4 + Y 5 )/ 3 = Yˆ3

&kQG QXP UXO GH WHUPHQL GLQ FDUH VH FDOFXOHD] 00 HVWH LPSDU REVHUY P F  QXP UXO GH

medii mobile calculare este T-(p-1); valorile ajustate coincid cu mediile mobile calculate;
QXP UXO GH WHUPHQL UHDOL FDUH VH SLHUG SULQ DMXVWDUH HVWH (p+1)/2 WUHQGXO GLQ HYROX LD

fenomenului analizat este pULQQRXOúLUGHYDORUL{Ŷ t }t .

{ FD]XO FkQG PHGLLOH PRELOH VH FDOFXOHD]  GLQtr-XQ QXP U SDU GH WHUPHQL (p=4). În
DFHDVW VLWXD LHSURFHGXUDGHGHWHUPLQDUHDWUHQGXOXLHVWHXUP WRDUHD

- VH FDOFXOHD]  00 GXS  SURFHGHXO GHVFULV FkQG p este impar). Aceste medii mobile
SURYL]RULL GHRDUHFH VH SODVHD]  vQWUH WHUPHQLL UHDOL LDU DFHúWLD QX SRW IL vQORFXL L 3H

ED]D 00 SURYL]RULL VH FDOFXOHD]  00 ILQDOH GLQ GRL WHUPHQL VXFFHVLYL LDU DFHúWLD

coincid cu valorile ajustate (MM finale plasându-se în dreptul termenilor reali îi va

vQORFXLSHDFHúWLD- (fig.9.8).
 t1 Yt MM provizorii MM finale
(valori ajustate)
1 Y1
2 Y2
Y 1 = ( Y 1 + Y 2 + Y 3 + Y 4 )/ 4
3 Y3 Y = (Y 1 + Y 2 ) = Ŷ 1
4 Y4 Y 2 = ( Y 2 + Y 3 + Y 4 + Y 5 )/ 4
5 Y5 Y 3 = ( Y 3 + Y 4 + Y 5 + Y 6 )/ 4
6 Y6 Y 2 = (Y 2 + Y 3 ) = Ŷ 2
Figura 9.8. Ajustarea SCR prin metoda MMM (când p este par)

ÌQFD]XOvQFDUHvQDMXVWDUHD00VHFDOFXOHD] GLQWU XQQXP - r par de tHUPHQLVHFRQVWDW F 

VHSLHUGXQQXP U p de termeni.
3ULQXUPDUHFDPHWRG GHHVWLPDUHDWHQGLQ HLFHQWUDOHvQJHQHUDOvQ6&5DIHFWDWHGHIDFWRUL

VH]RQLHUL 000 SUH]LQW  GH]DYDQWDMXO F  SLHUGH LQIRUPD LL UHDOH 'H DVHPHQHD QX vQWRWGHDXQD

QXP UXOGHWHUPHQLGLQFDUHVHFDOFXOHD] VHVWDELOHúWHvQXUPDXQHLDQDOL]HFDOLWDWLYH

$OJRULWPXODSOLF ULL000SHQWUXGHWHUPLQDUHDWUHQGXOXLDMXVWDWVHSUH]LQW vQILJXUD

P Calculul Divizarea
este unei a doua pri n 2p
par sume mobile
de ordinul 2

Aflareanum‘- Calculul Aflarea valorilor

rului de termeni sumelor ajustate ]i ob\i-
mobile nerea trendului
din care se calcu-
pe grafic
leaz‘ MM
(ordi n de fi ltraj)
P este Divizarea
i mpar pri n 2p

Fig. 10.9. MMM - reguli de aplicare

$SOLFD LD . Despre consumul de gaz metan (mil. m3VHFXQRVFXUP WRDUHOHGDWH

Tabelul 9.5.
ANUL/TRIM. I II III IV
1998 7397 5512 5406 7686
1999 7468 5604 5433 7795
2000 7639 5664 5453 7940
2001 7793 5694 5473 8040
3ULQ000S WUHQGXODMXVWDWGLQHYROX LDFRQVXPXOXLGHJD]PHWDQHVWHGDWGHGDWHOH

prezentate în tabelul 9.6.

Tabelul 9.6.
Aplicarea MMM (p=4)
ANUL/TRIM. I II III IV
1998 - - 6508,9 6529,3
1999 6544,1 6561,3 6603,1 6638,8
2000 6648,8 6669,4 6700 6716,3
2001 6732,5 6737,5 - -

2) PHWRGDJUDILF GHDMXVWDUHDWUHQGXOXL SRDWHILXWLOL]DW vQGRX YDULDQWH

{ Varianta I FRQVW  vQ XQLUHD SXQFWHORU PHGLDQH GH SH SURLHF LLOH YkUIXULORU SLVFXULORU
FXUEHL6&5SHVHJPHQWHOHGHGUHDSW GLQWUHYkUIXULOHJUDILFXOXL6&5GHGDWHUHDOH
 .
yt T rendul evolu\iei variabilei y

.
... . . .
t
Fi g. 10.10. Determi narea trendul ui pri n metoda grafi c‘ (var. I )
'HWHUPLQDUHD WUHQGXOXL SULQ PHWRGD JUDILF  YDULDQWD , HVWH VLPSO  úL UDSLG  &X WRDWH

DFHVWHD YDULDQWD GH PDL VXV SUH]LQW  R VHULH GH GH]DYDQWDMH LQH VHDPD GH YDORULOH DEHUDQWH GDF 

HOH H[LVW  WUHQGXO GHWHUPLQDW DVWIHO LQH VHDPD QXPDL GH YDORULOH H[WUHPH vQUHJLVWUDWH GH YDULDELOD

Y; depindHGHFDOLWDWHDUHSUH]HQW ULLJUDILFHHWF
{ Varianta II DUH OD ED]  LSRWH]D DF LXQLL FRQVWDQWH SH vQWUHJXO RUL]RQW DO VHULHL D
IDFWRULORU GH LQIOXHQ  $SOLFDUHD PHWRGHL JUDILFH vQ YDULDQWD ,, SHQWUX GHWHUPLQDUHD WUHQGXOXL

FRQVW vQWUDVDUHDSHJUDILFXO6&5DOLQLHLGUHSWHVDXFXUEHFDUHXQHúWHSXQFWHOHH[WUHPHvQDúDIHO

vQFkW DEDWHULOH ID  GH SXQFWHOH UHDOH V  ILH PLQLPH ÌQ DFHDVW  YDULDQW  PHWRGD JUDILF  ULJXURV

DSOLFDW DUHDYDQWDMXOF SHUPLWHLGHQWLILFDUHDIXQF LHLDQDOLWLFHFDUHHVWLPHD] WHQGLQ DJHQHUDO GLQ

HYROX LDIHQRPHQXOXL

3) 0HWRGDPRGLILF ULLDEVROXWH PHGLL (metoda sporului mediu -060HVWHRDOW PHWRG 

GH GHWHUPLQDUH D WUHQGXOXL DMXVWDW (D VH UHFRPDQG  DWXQFL FkQG PRGLILF ULOH DEVROXWH FX ED] 

moELO  VXQW DSUR[LPDWLY HJDOH VDX FkQG úLUXO WHUPHQLORU 6&5 VH DVHDP Q  FX R SURJUHVLH

DULWPHWLF FXUDWDHJDO FXPRGLILFDUHDDEVROXW PHGLH

'HWHUPLQDUHDWUHQGXOXLDMXVWDWSULQ060DUHODED] XUP WRDUHDUHOD LH

Ŷ t = Y 1 + ( t − 1 )  , t = 1 , T (9.23)

Analiza rela LHLFDúLD060vQJHQHUDOQHFHVLW XQHOHREVHUYD LL

- primul termen ajustat (Ŷ 1 ) este identic cu primul termen real al SCR (Y1);
- ultimul termen ajustat (Ŷ T ) este egal cu ultimul termen al SCR (YT);
-ED]DGHDMXVWDUHHVWHGHUHJXO SULPXOWHUPHQDOVHULHLW 'XS QDWXUDOXQJLPHD6&5
ED] GHDMXVWDUHSRDWHILRULFDUHWHUPHQGLQFDGUXOVHULHLFXFRQGL LDFDHOV ILHFHOPDLDSURSLDWGH

OLQLDFDUHXQHúWHSXQFWHOHH[WUHPHDOH6&5

$SOLFD LD'HVSUHIHQRPHQXO<VHFXQRVFXUP WRDUHOHGDWH

Tabelul 9.7.
ANII 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
YT 40 42 44 46 47 50 52
(mii u.m.)
3HED]DGDWHORUGHPDLVXVVHGHWHUPLQ WUHQGXO Ŷ t ) în tabelul de mai jos:

Tabelul 9.8.
ANII Yt t-1 Ŷ t = 40 + (t − 1)
1995 40 0 40
1996 42 1 42
1997 44 2 44
1998 46 3 46
1999 47 4 48
2000 50 5 50
2001 52 6 52
 4) 0HWRGD LQGLFHOXL GH GLQDPLF  0,0 de determinare a trendului ajustat este
DVHP Q WRDUH FX 060 0HWRGD LQGLFHOXL PHGLX GH GLQDPLF  VH UHFRPDQG  SHQWUX HVWLPDUHD

WHQGLQ HL FHQWUDOH GLQHYROX LDIHQRPHQXOXL VWXGLDW GDF  LQGLFLL GH GLQDPLF  FX ED]  PRELO  VXQW

aproximativi egali, VDX GDF  úLUXO WHUPHQLORU 6&5 HVWH DVHP Q WRU XQHL SURJUHVLL JHRPHWULFH FX

UD LDHJDO FXLQGLFHOHPHGLXGHGLQDPLF 

3RWULYLW0,0GHDMXVWDUHUHOD LDGXS FDUHVHRE LQYDORULOHFDUHHVWLPHD] WUHQGXOHVWH

(t−1 )
Ŷ t = Y 1  I , t = 1, T (9.24)

2EVHUYD LL

- primul termen ajustat (Ŷ 1  úL XOWLPXO WHUPHQ DMXVWDW Ŷ T  VXQW HJDOL FX SULPXO úL XOWLPXO
termen real al SCR;
-REVHUYD LDFXSULYLUHODED]DGHDMXVWDUHHIHFWXDW OD060HVWHYDODELO úLSHQWUX0,0
-GDF  SHJUDILFVH WUDVHD]  OLQLDFDUHXQHúWHSXQFWHOHH[WUHPHSULQSXQFWHOHFDUHUHSUH]LQW 
YDORULOHDMXVWDWHVHRE LQHWHQGLQ DJHQHUDO GHHYROX LHVXEIRUPDXQHLFXUEHH[SRQHQ LDOH

'LQ DQDOL]D FRPSDUDWLY  D PHWRGHORU SUH]HQWDWH FRQVWDW P F  PHWRGD VSRUXOXL PHGLX

PHWRGD LQGLFHOXL PHGLX GH GLQDPLF  PHWRGD JUDILF  YDULDQWD ,, ID  GH 000 VH ED]HD]  vQ

GHWHUPLQDUHD WUHQGXOXL DMXVWDW QXPDL SH ED]D SULPXOXL úL XOWLPXOXL WHUPHQ DO 6&5 'LQ DFHDVW 

FDX] HOHDXXQFDUDFWHUPHFDQLFGDUSRWRIHULLQIRUPD LLXWLOHGHVSUHWHQGLQ DGHHYROX LHDXQXL

IHQRPHQvQP VXUDvQFDUHFRQGL LLOH GHRPRJHQLWDWHDWHUPHQLORU6&5DPRGLILF ULORUDEVROXWHVDX

DLQGLFLORUGHGLQDPLF FXED] PRELO HVWHVDWLVI FXW 

b) Metode analitice de determinare a trendului. 2 HVWLPDUH PDL H[DFW  D WHQGLQ HL

JHQHUDOHGLQHYROX LDXQXLIHQRPHQRSXWHPRE LQHSULQPHWRGHDQDOLWLFHFDUHLDXvQFRQVLGHUDUHWR L

WHUPHQLL 6&5 0HWRGHOH DQDOLWLFH VH ED]HD]  SH IXQF LL PDWHPDWLFH  Ŷ t = f ( t )  QXPLWH úL IXQF LL GH

ajustare D WUHQGXOXL GH HVWLPDUH D WHQGLQ HL FHQWUDOH $FHDVW  HVWLPDUH D WHQGLQ HL FX R IXQF LH GH

DMXVWDUH UHSUH]LQW  vQ FHOH GLQ XUP  WRW R LSRWH]  GHRDUHFH vQ UHDOLWDWH HYROX LD IHQRPHQXOXL QX

depinde de succesiunea timpului, ci de ansamblul factorilor generDOL úL VSHFLILFL FDUH GHWHUPLQ 

P ULPHD ILHF UXL WHUPHQ DO 6&5 IDFWRUL FDUH DFWLYHD]  SH VFDOD WLPSXOXL 'HFL OD PHWRGHOH

DQDOLWLFH YDULDELOD WLPS HVWH OXDW  vQ FRQVLGHUDUH QX FD IDFWRU GH LQIOXHQ  FL HVWH XWLOL]DW  QXPDL

pentru ordonarea termenilor SCR.

)XQF LLOH GH DMXVWDUH VXQW IXQF LLOH PDWHPDWLFH X]XDOH IXQF LD GH JUDGXO XQX úL GRL KLSHUEROD

H[SRQHQ LDODORJLVWLFDHWF$FHVWHIXQF LLVHVWDELOHVFvQUDSRUWFXWUDLHFWRULLOHUHDOHDOHHYROX LHLvQWLPS

DIHQRPHQHORUFXDQDOL]DWHRUHWLF FDOLWDWLY FRPSOH[ DIHQRPHQXOXLFXUHSUH]HQWDUHDJUDILF D6&5

FXDQDOL]DPRGLILF ULORUDEVROXWHVDXUHODWLYHFXED] PRELO HWF

$VWIHO SH ED]D JUDILFXOXL 6&5 úL D DOWRU FULWHULL WHQGLQ D JHQHUDO  GH HYROX LH D XQXL IHQRPHQ

într-un orizont de timp, esWH HVWLPDW  SULQWU R DQXPLW  IXQF LH ([HPSOH GH IXQF LH GH DMXVWDUH VXQW
-
prezentate în figura 9.11.

T rend liniar T rend exponen\ial T rend logistic

A
y=a+bt A
y=ka A k
y= 1+eb-at
T rend parabolic T rend hiperbolic

A A k
y=a+bt+at2 y= t

)LJ([HPSOHGHIXQF LLGHDMXVWDUH

'XS  DOHJHUHD IXQF LLORU GH DMXVWDUH vQ ED]D XQRU FULWHULL IXQGDPHQWDOH HVWH QHFHVDU 

estimarea parametriloU (VWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU IXQF LLORU GH UHJUHVLH VH HIHFWXHD]  SULQ PDL PXOWH
PHWRGH GLQ FDUH FHD PDL XWLOL]DW  GDWRULW  FDOLW LORU VDOH HVWH PHWRGD FHORU PDL PLFL S WUDWH

(MCMMP )XQF LD RELHFWLY D 0&003 R UHSUH]LQW  PLQLPL]DUHD VXPHL S WUDWHORU DEDWH rilor
valorilor ajustate (de trend) de la termenii reali.
Deci,

mi n 
t
(Y t − Ŷ t ) 2
(9.25)

0&003 VH DSOLF  vQ DFHVW FRQWH[W vQ PRG DVHP Q WRU FX DOJRULWPXO SUH]HQWDW SHQWUX

HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOHORU GH UHJUHVLH 'HRVHELULOH FDUH DSDU YL]HD]  IDSWXO F  vQ OR cul
YDULDELOHORU H[RJHQH FDX]DOH VH LD YDULDELOD WLPS W 'HRDUHFH WLPSXO HVWH R YDULDELO  FDUH VH

P VRDU  FX DMXWRUXO VFDOHL GH LQWHUYDO SXQFWXO GH RULJLQH W  DO VFDOHL úL XQLWDWHD GH P VXU  D

variabilei timp "t" se aleg în mod convenabil. Pentru rH]ROYDUHD VLVWHPXOXL GH HFXD LL GHGXV SULQ
0&003VHSRDWHDSHODODRVLPSOLILFDUHLPSRUWDQW VHVWDELOHVF YDORULOHYDULDELOHLWDVWIHOvQFkW

 ti = 0
i .

$FHDVW VLPSOLILFDUHSRDWHILHIHFWXDW vQIHOXOXUP WRU

- GDF  6&5 HVWH IRUPDW  GLQWU XQ QXP U LPSDU GH

- termeni ca origine (t=0) se ia termenul
PHGLDQ UHVWXO WHUPHQLORU VXQW SODVD L VLPHWULF FUHVF WRU úL GHVFUHVF WRU ID  GH RULJLQH 'H

exemplu:

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

t
-2 -1 0 1 2 Et=0
- GDF  6&5 HVWH
IRUPDW  GLQWU XQ QXP U SDU GH WHUPHQL RULJLQHD W
-  VH LD vQWUH termenii mediani, iar apoi restul

WHUPHQLORUVXQWSODVD LVLPHWULFID GHRULJLQHODGLVWDQ HHJDOH'HH[HPSOX

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

t
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2
Et=0

$SOLFkQG 0&003 FX VLPSOLILFDUHD GH PDL VXV SHQWUX GHWHUPLQDUHD SDUDPHWULORU IXQF LHL

OLQLDUHFXFDUHVHHVWLPHD] WHQGLQ DJHQHUDO GHHYROX LHDXQXLIHQRPHQVHRE LQHXUP WRUXOVLVWHP

GHHFXD LL

 T a =  Y t  t
t

b
 t t 2
=  Yt  t
t
'XS  GHWHUPLQDUHD SDUDPHWULORU IXQF LLORU GH DMXVWDUH VH GHWHUPLQ  YDORULOH DMXVWDWH

Ŷ t = â + b̂t luându-se în considerare valorile acordate variabilei timp.

Determinarea treQGXOXL DMXVWDW SULQ PHWRGH DQDOLWLFH SULQ IXQF LL PDWHPDWLFH GH DMXVWDUH VH
ED]HD] vQV SHRVHULHGHLSRWH]HFDUHWUHEXLHYHULILFDWH a posteriori.

$QDOL]DFDOLW LLHVWLP ULLWHQGLQ HLJHQHUDOHGHHYROX LHDXQXL

fenomen
3HQWUX DFHHDúL 6&5 GHWHUPLQDUHD WUHQGXOXL DMXVWDW VH HIHFWXHD]  SULQ PDL PXOWH PHWRGH

PHFDQLFH VDX DQDOLWLFH 'LQ DFHDVW  FDX]  HVWH QHFHVDU  DSUHFLHUHD ILGHOLW LL DMXVW ULL WUHQGXOXL

în SCR.
$SUHFLHUHD FDOLW LL DMXVW ULL SULQ DQXPLWH PHWRGH HVWH R SUREOHP  GH GHFL]LH VWDWLVWLF  FDUH

SUHVXSXQH XWLOL]DUHD XQRU WHKQLFL RELHFWLYH 'LQWUH DFHVWHD FHOH PDL X]XDOH DSOLFDELOH VLPSOX úL

UDSLGSUH]HQW PXUP WRDUHOH

 { SHJUDILFVHFRPSDU YL]XDOvQDFHODúLVLVWHPGHD[HFXUEDGUHDSWDFDUHXQHúWHYDORULOH
reale cu cea corespun] WRDUH YDORULORU DMXVWDWH FDOFXODWH 8UP ULQGX-se curbele trasate se va alege
DFHDPHWRG FDUHFRQGXFHODFHOHPDLDSURSLDWHYDORULDMXVWDWHGHYDORULOHUHDOH

{ FDOLWDWHD DMXVW ULL VH SRDWH DSUHFLD FRPSDUkQG VXPD YDORULORU HPSLULFH 

t
Y t ) cu suma
Ŷ
valorilor ajustate (t t 'XS DFHVWSURFHGHXVHYDDOHJHDFHDPHWRG GHHVWLPDUHDWHQGLQ HLFHQWUDOH
care conduce la cea mai mare apropiere a sumei valorilor ajustate de suma valorilor empirice (reale).
5D LRQDPHQWXOXWLOL] ULLDFHVWXLFULWHULXDUHODED] IDSWXOF VXPDDEDWHULORUWHUPHQLORUDMXVWD LID GH

WHUPHQLLUHDOLHPSLULFLWUHEXLHV ILHQXO 

{ R DOW  PRGDOLWDWH GH DOHJHUH D PHWRGHL FDUH HVWLPHD]  FHO PDL ELQH WHQGLQ D JHQHUDO  GH

HYROX LHDXQXLIHQRPHQHVWH

mi n 
t
(Y t − Ŷ t ) 2
(9.26)
{ în mod frecvent, pentru aprecierHD FDOLW LL DMXVW ULL XQ DOW FULWHULX HVWH FHD PDL PLF 

DEDWHUHPHGLHS WUDWLF DWHUPHQLORUUHDOLID GHWHUPHQLLDMXVWD LDLWUHQGXOXL

1
(Y t −Ŷ t )2

2
t
mi n T
(9.27)
ÌQOLWHUDWXUDGHVSHFLDOLWDWHvQGHRVHELvQOXFU ULOHOXL&UR[WRQVHSUH]LQW PDLPXOWHFULWHULL ,
PDL PXOW WHVWH ULJXURDVH GDU PDL JUHX XWLOL]DELOH GXS  FDUH V  VH GHFLG  FDUH HVWH FHD PDL EXQ 

PHWRG  GH GHWHUPLQDUH D WUHQGXOXL GH HVWLPDUH D WHQGLQ HL JHQHUDOH GLQ HYROX LD XQXL IHQRPHQ GH

PDV 

9.5. ANALIZA STATIST,& $26&,/$ ,,/253 ERIODICE ÎNTR-O SERIE

&5212/2*,&

În paragraful 9.4.1. s-D DU WDW F DVXSUD WHUPHQLORU XQHL 6&5 DF LRQHD]  vQ DIDUD IDFWRULORU FDUH

LPSULP WHQGLQ DJHQHUDO úLIDFWRULLGHLQIOXHQ FDUHGHWHUPLQ YDULD LLSHULRGLFHDOHWHUPHQLORUID GH

WHQGLQ DSH RUL]RQWXOGHWLPSDQDOL]DWÌQIXQF LHGHSHULRGLFLWDWHD ORURVFLOD LLOHVHFODVLILF  vQRVFLOD LL

VH]RQLHUHúLRVFLOD LLFLFOLFH3ULQXUPDUHGLQSXQFWXOGHYHGHUHDOPRGHO ULLVWDWLVWLFHVHSXQHSUREOHPD

GHWHUPLQ ULL RVFLOD LLORU FRPSRQHQWHL VH]RQLHUH úL D RVFLOD L ilor (componentei) ciclice pe care le
SUH]LQW 6&5ÌQFRQWLQXDUHQHYRPRFXSDGHGHWHUPLQDUHDFRPSRQHQWHLVH]RQLHUH

&RPSRQHQWD VH]RQLHU  HVWH OHJDW  GH UHJXO  GH LQIOXHQ D PRGLILF ULL DQRWLPSXULORU

asupra termenilor unei SCR. $FHDVWDvQVHDPQ F HVWHQHFHVDUV VHGHWHUPLQHP VXUDúLGLUHF LD

vQ FDUH VH]RQDOLWDWHD FRQGXFH OD DEDWHUL DOH WHUPHQLORU XQHL 6&5 GH OD WHQGLQ D FHQWUDO  vQ GLIHULWH

faze ale perioadei, de obicei ale anului.

3HQWUX D SXQH vQ HYLGHQ  LQIOXHQ D IDFWRULORU VH]RQLHUL DVXSUD HYROX LHL IHQRPHQXOXL vQWU -o
6&5 QHVWD LRQDU  WUHEXLH V  VH HOLPLQH GLQ DFHDVWD LQIOXHQ D FHORUODOWH FRPSRQHQWH GH H[HPSOX

WUHQGXO úL DEDWHULOH DOHDWRDUH ÌQ FD]XO VHULLORU VWD LRQDUH GHWHUPLQDUHD HIHFWXOXL VH]RQDOLW LL

QHFHVLW  HOLPLQDUHD QXPDL D DEDWHULORU DOHDWRDUH &RPSRQHQ D VH]RQLHU  SXV  DVWIHO vQ HYLGHQ 

RIHU  LQIRUPD LL XWLOH vQ XQHOH DFWLYLW L GLQ LQGXVWULD FRQVHUYHORU LQGXVWULD ]DK UXOXL FRQVXPXO GH

HQHUJLH HOHFWULF  úL JD]H QDWXUDOHWXULVP HWF SHQWUX OXDUHD GH P VXUL GH SUHYHGHUH GH LQHU e sub
FRQWURO GH DWHQXDUH úL FKLDU GH vQO WXUDUH D IDFWRULORU FX LQIOXHQ  VH]RQLHU  ÌQ DFHVW VFRS VXQW

HODERUDWH VHULL FURQRORJLFH FRUHFWDWH GLQ FDUH VH HOLPLQ  FRPSRQHQWD VH]RQLHU  úL FDUH FRQ LQH

QXPDL WUHQGXO úL DEDWHULOH vQWkPSO WRDUH ÌQ HVHQ  DQDOL]D VH]RQDOLW LL vQWU -o SCR presupune ca
GXS  VWDELOLUHD PRGHOXOXL DGLWLY VDX PXOWLSOLFDWLY VXE FDUH VH PDQLIHVW  LQIOXHQ D IDFWRUXOXL

VH]RQLHUV VHHVWLPH]HYDORULOHFRPSRQHQWHORU6j sau Sj* (cu j = 1, mSULQGHWHUPLQDUHDYDULD LLORU

(abaterilor) Sj sau a indicilor de sezonalitate Sj  'HWHUPLQDUHD YDULD LLORU VH]RQLHUH vQWU-o SCR
QHVWD LRQDU QHFHVLW GHWHUPLQDUHDSUHDODELO DWUHQGXOXLFXXQPRGHODQDOLWLFVDXFX0003HQWUX

determinarea trendului într-R 6&5 DIHFWDW  GH LQIOXHQ H VH]RQLHUH VH UHFRPDQG metoda mediilor
mobile (MMM).
În cazul în care s-D VWDELOLW F  LQIOXHQ D IDFWRUXOXL VH]RQLHU VH PDQLIHVW  DGLWLY PHWRGRORJLD
GHGHWHUPLQDUHDFRPSRQHQWHLVH]RQLHUHSUHVXSXQHXQDOJRULWPGHVI úXUDWvQXUP WRULLSDúL
  6H FDOFXOHD]  GLIHUHQ HOH GLQWUH ILHFDUH WHUPHQ DO 6&5 úL YDORULOH FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH

WUHQGXOXL'HFLSHED]DLSRWH]HLIRUPXODWHVHFDOFXOHD] GLIHUHQ HOH

Y ij − Ŷ ij = (Ŷ ij + S j +  ij ) − Ŷ ij = S j +  ij (9.28)

cu:
i = 1, n -UHSUH]LQW QXP UXOFXUHQWDOSHULRDGHLDQXOXL

j = 1, m -UHSUH]LQW QXP UXOGHRUGLQHDOVXESHULRDGHLGHH[HPSOXO una, trimestrul etc.)

$FHVWHGLIHUHQ HFDOFXODWHFRQ LQQXPDLFRPSRQHQWDVH]RQLHU úLFRPSRQHQWDDOHDWRDUH

3HED]DGLIHUHQ HORUUHIHULWRDUHODDFHODúLVH]RQ-WULPHVWUXVDXOXQ VHFDOFXOHD] PHGLL

SDU LDOHSHQWUXILHFDUHVH]RQSHQWUXDvQO WXUD componenta aleatoare:

n 
 1
n
1
n i =1
 ij
Sj = n  (Y ij − Ŷ ij ) = n  (S j +  ij ) = S j + n O Sj
i =1 i =1 (9.29)

$FHúWLD VXQW HVWLPDWRUL DL FRPSRQHQWHL VH]RQLHUH ÌQ FD]XO vQ FDUH WUHQGXO D IRVW GHWHUPLQDW
n 
 Sj = 0
FX0&003VXPDDEDWHULORUVH]RQLHUHHVWHQXO j =1 úLGHFLPHGLDORUHVWHQXO GHRDUHFH

n m n m
  Y ij =   Ŷ ij
i =1 j =1 i =1 j =1 (9.30)

'DF  vQV  WUHQGXO VH GHWHUPLQ  SULQ 000 DFHDVW  FRPSHQVDUH D DEDWHULORU VH]RQLHUH QX DUH ORF

vQWRWGHDXQDúLvQFRQVHFLQ VHWUHFHODSDVXOXUP WRU

n 
 Sj = 0
3) În cazul j =1  SH ED]D HVWLP ULORU 6
j FDOFXODWH DQWHULRU VH GHWHUPLQ  PHGLLOH
m 
 Sj /m
j =1 pentru a evalua abaterile de la valoarea WHRUHWLF  VFRQWDW  $SRL VH FDOFXOHD] 
m 
 Sj /m
GLIHUHQ HOHGLQWUHHVWLPDWRULL6
júLPHGLLOH j =1 FDUHUHSUH]LQW DEDWHULOHVH]RQLHUHFRUHFWDWH

m
Sj
 m
(Y ij Ŷ ij )
n
Sj

 
j =1

j =1

j =1
Sj = Sj m = m = m
(9.31)

Cele m DEDWHUL VH]RQLHUH FDOFXODWH SULQ UHOD LD  VHPQLILF  IDSWXO F  vQ ILHFDUH VH]RQ M

componenta VH]RQLHU  VH DEDWH FX S j de la valoarea de trend Ŷ ij  'LUHF LD DEDWHULORU VH]RQLHUH
depinde, în mod evident, de semnul estimatorului Sj.
 6H GHWHUPLQ  6&5 FRUHFWDW  IRUPDW  GLQ GLIHUHQ HOH GLQWUH WR L WHUPHQLL Yij úL DEDWHULOH
sezoniere Sj.

Yij-Sj cu j = 1, m (9.32)

În ipoteza sj=Sj GDWHOH FRUHFWDWH SULQ H[FOXGHUHD VH]RQDOLW LL  FRQ LQ WUHQGXO úL

abaterea aleatoare:

Y ij − S j = Ŷ ij +  ij (j = 1, m) (9.33)

'XS  DOHJHUHD DOJRULWPXOXL SULQ FDUH VH GHWHUPLQ  FRPSRQHQWD VH]RQLHU  VH GHWHUPLQ  GLQ

UHOD LDFRPSRQHQWDDOH atoare.

 $SOLFD LD  0HWRGRORJLD GH GHWHUPLQDUH D FRPSRQHQWHL VH]RQLHUH HVWH DSOLFDW  OD VHULD

FURQRORJLF  UHIHULWRDUH OD FRQVXPXO GH JD] PHWDQ 7HQGLQ D  GH HYROX LH V-a determinat prin MM

calculate prin patru termeni, datele fiind trimestriale. În tabelul 9.9 s-DX FDOFXODW FX UHOD LD 
DEDWHULOHYDORULORUUHDOHDOHWHUPHQLORUID GHYDORULOHDMXVWDWH

0HWRGRORJLD GHFDOFXODLQGLFDWRULORUSUH]HQWD L vQWDEHOXODIRVWH[SOLFDW SULQUHOD LLOH

(9.28) - (9.33).

Tabelul 9.9.
Consumul de gaz metan (mil. m.c.)
Anul Con- Suma SCR
i=1988 Trim. sumul PRELO 
Tendinta Tendin\a Componenta corectata
-1991 j =1,4 de gaz din prin Abaterea + componenta aleatoare prinex −
metan patru MMM Yij −Ŷ sezoniera Yij − Ŷij + Si cluderea
(mil. m3) termeni sezonali −
Ŷij Ŷij + Sij
(Yij)
tatii
Ŷij − Sij

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 I 7397 - - - - - 6373,22
9 II 5512 - - - - - 6523,16
9 III 5406 26000 6508,9 -1102,9 5326,48 +79,52 6588,42
8 IV 7686 26071 6529,3 +1156,7 7699,08 -13,08 6516,22
1 I 7468 26163 6544,1 +923, 9 7567,88 -99,88 6444,22
9 II 5604 26120 6561,3 -857,3 5550,14 +53,86 6516,16
9 III 5433 26300 6603,1 -1170,1 5420,68 +12,32 6516,42
9 IV 7795 26525 6638,8 +1156, 2 7808,58 -13,58 6625,22
2 I 7693 26585 6648,8 +1044, 2 7672,68 +20,42 6669,22
0 II 5664 26605 6669,4 -1005,4 5658,24 +5,76 6675,16
0 III 5453 26750 6700 -1247 5517,58 -64,58 6635,42
0 IV 7940 26850 6716,3 +1223,7 7806,08 +53,92 6770,22
2 I 7793 26880 6732,5 +1070,5 7746,28 +46,72 6769,22
0 II 5694 26900 6737,5 -1043,5 5726,34 -36,34 6705,16
0 III 5473 27000 - - - 6655,42
1 IV 8040 - - - - 6870,22

Tabelul 9.10.
Calculul abaterilor sezoniere
ANII Abateri fa\adetrend pe tri mestre (Y i j − Ŷ i j )
I II III IV
1998 - - -1102,9 1156,7
1999 923,9 -957,3 --1170,1 1156,2
2000 1104,2 1005,4 -1247 1223,7
2001 1070,5 -1043,5 - -
T OT AL ABAT E RI 3098,6 3006,2 -3520 3536,6
 ( Y i j − Ŷ i j )

Media abaterilor s’j 1032,87 -1002,02 -1173,33 1178,87

Valorile corelate sj 1023,78 -1011,16 -1182 1169,78
0HGLLOHSDU LDOH s’j) calculate pentru fiecarHVH]RQVXQWFRUHFWDWHFXP ULPHD

m  +1032,87+1002,07+1173,33+1178,87
 s j /m = 4 = +9, 09
j =1

6HRE LQDVWIHOXUP WRDUHOHDEDWHULVH]RQLHUHFRUHFWDWH

S1 = +1032,87 - 9,09 = +1023,78

S2 = -1002,07 - 9,09 = -1011,16
 S3 = -1173,33 - 9,09 = -1182,42
S4 = +1178,57 - 9,09 = +1169,48
ÌQ SUDFWLF  GHVHRUL LQIOXHQ D IDFWRUXOXL VH]RQLHU DVXSUD HYROX LHL vQ WLPS D XQXL IHQRPHQ

prezentat într-R 6&5 VH H[HUFLW  SULQ DPSOLILFDUHD VDX UHVWUkQJHUHD DEDWHULORU GH OH WHQGLQ D FHQWUDO 
AceasWDvQVHDPQ F WHUPHQLLUHDOLDLXQHL6&5UH]XOW GLQFRPELQDUHDPXOWLSOLFDWLY a componentelor
seriei.
În cazul modelului multiplicativ determinarea componentei sezoniere presupune un
DOJRULWP DVHP Q WRU FX FHO DGLWLY FX GHRVHELUHD F  DFHVWD LPSOLF  SHQWUX HOLPLQDUHD LQIOXHQ HL

IDFWRUXOXLVH]RQLHURSHUD LLGHvPS U LUHúLQXGHVF G ere. Astfel:

6HFDOFXOHD] UDSRDUWHOHGLQWUHWHUPHQLLREVHUYD L<ijúLYDORULOHFRUHVSXQ] WRDUHWUHQGXOXL

Ŷ i j  RE LQXWH GH UHJXO  SULQ 000 5DSRDUWHOH DVWIHO FDOFXODWH FRQ LQ FRPSRQHQWD VH]RQLHU  úL

componenta aleatoare:
Yij 
Ŷij
= S j  ij ; cu i = 1, n ; j = 1, m
(9.34)

2) Pe baza rapoDUWHORU FDOFXODWH DQWHULRU VH FDOFXOHD]  SHQWUX D HOLPLQD HIHFWXO IDFWRULORU

vQWkPSO WRULPHGLLSDU LDOHSHVH]RDQHFDUHVXQWúLHVWLPDWRULLFRPSRQHQWHLVH]RQLHUH

n 
 n Yij n   ij 
sj = 1
n  Ŷ = 1
n  Sj   ij = S j i =1n O Sj
i =1 ij i =1 (9.35)

ÌQFD]XOvQFDUH WUHQGXODIRVW GHWHUPLQDWFX 0&003 úLSURGXVXOHVWLPDWRULORUFRUHFWD LFX

UHOD LDHVWHGLIHULWGHVDXVHWUHFHODSDVXOXUP WRU

’*
6HFDOFXOHD] UDSRDUWHOHGLQWUHHVWLPDWRULL6j úLPHGLDORUFDOFXODW SHQWUXILHFDUHVH]RQ

aflându-se estimatorul corectat al componentei sezoniere numit indicele de sezonalitate al

sezonului j, " ! !
n Yij sj
( 1n 
1
) : (m  sj ) = sj = m "
i =1 Ŷij sj

i =1 (9.36)
)LHFDUH LQGLFH GH VH]RQDOLWDWH DFHúWLD ILLQG vQ QXP U GH m VHPQLILF  IDSWXO F  vQ vQWUHJXO

RUL]RQW GH WLPS vQ VHFWRUXO MDOIDFWRUXOXL VH]RQLHU DEDWH YDORDUHD UHDO  GH OD WUHQG GH 6j ori, sau cu
(Sj-1) procente.

 3UHVXSXQkQG F  Sj=S*j (fiind cunoscute Ŷij , Yij úL Sj* VH GHWHUPLQ  FRPSRQHQWDDOHDWRDUH

PXOWLSOLFDWLY 

Yij $
Ŷij S j
# =  ij

6H RE LQHDVWIHO VHULD FURQRORJLF  FRUHFWDW  SULQH[FOXGHUHD VH]RQDOLW LL UDSRUWkQG WHUPHQLL

REVHUYD LDL6&5ODLQGLFLLGHVH]RQDOLWDWHFRUHVSXQ] WRUL'HFLGDF  sj*=S*j , atunci:

Yij
Ŷij S j
=  ij
(9.37)

ÌQLSRWH]DF LQIOXHQ DIDFWRUXOXLVH]RQLHUVHPDQLIHVW PXOWLSOLFDWLYDVXSUD6&5GLQWDEHOXO

H[HPSOLILFDUHDDOJRULWPXOXLVHSUH]LQW vQWDEHOHOHúL

'LIHUHQ HOH FDUH DSDU vQWUH 6&5 FRUHFWDW  GLQ WDEHOXO  úL FHD GLQ WDEHOXO  SURYLQ QX

DWkW GLQ DOJRULWPXO XWLOL]DW FkW GLQ LSRWH]D UHIHULWRDUH OD PDQLIHVWDUHD DGLWLY  VDX PXOWLSOLFDWLY  D

factorului sezonier.
 ÌQ XOWLPD SHULRDG  SHQWUX DQDOL]D FRPSRQHQWHL VH]RQLHUH SHUIHF LRQ UL PHWRGRORJLFH  DX IRVW

DGXVHGH*&DORW0HULWXOPHWRGRORJLHLSURSXV GH&DORWFRQVW vQDFHHDF DFHDVWDSRDWHILIRORVLW úL

ca model prospectiv.

Tabelul 9.11.
6HULDFURQRORJLF FRUHFWDW SULQH[FOXGHUHDVH]RQDOLW LL

A Consumul
N de gaz SCR
T rim. Tendin\a Componenta
U metan Medii cor ectata
j = 1, 4 (mil. m3) Abateri + componenta aleatoare
L mobile Y ij
sezoniera Yij
S
& Yi j
'
(i) Ŷ ij Ŷ ij %
Ŷij  Sij
Ŷij j
Sj

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 I 7397 - - - - 6423,4
9 II 5512 - - - - 6493,11
9 III 5406 6508,9 0,8306 5349,01 1,0107 6578,24
8 IV 7686 6529,3 1,1772 7684,99 1,0001 6530,16
1 I 7468 6544,1 1,1412 7536,19 0,991 6484,89
9 II 5604 6561,3 0,8541 5569,61 1,0061 6601,48
9 III 5433 6603,1 0,8228 5426,43 1,0012 6611,1
9 IV 7795 6638,8 1,1742 7813,87 0,9976 6622,77
2 I 7693 6648,8 1,1571 7656,76 1,0047 6680,27
0 II 5664 6669,4 0,8493 5661,65 1,0004 6672,16
0 III 5453 6700 0,8139 5606,06 0,9904 6643,43
0 IV 7940 6716,3 1,1822 7905,09 1,0044 6745,96
2 I 7793 6732,5 1,1552 7741,63 1,0066 6767,11
0 II 5694 6737,5 0,8451 5719,46 0,9955 6707,5
0 III 5473 - - - - 6659,77
1 IV 8040 - - - - 6830,93

Tabelul 9.12.
Calculul abaterilor sezoniere în cazul modelului multiplicativ
Abateri fa\adetrend pe trimestre( Y i j /Ŷ i j )
I II III IV
1998 - - 0,8306 1,1772
1999 1,1412 0,8541 8228 1,1742
2000 1,1571 0,8493 0,8139 1,1822
2001 1,1592 0,8452 - -
T otal abateri 3,4575 2,5486 2,4673 3,5336
Y ij

Ŷ ij
Sj* 1,1525 0,8495 0,8224 1,1779
Sjt * 1,1516 0,8489 0,8218 1,177
S jt( /m =
m 1,1525+0,8495+0,8224+1,1779
 4 = 1, 00075
i =1

3HQWUX DSOLFDUHD PHWRGHORU GHVFULVH GH GHWHPLQDUHD FRPSRQHQWHL VH]RQLHUH WUHEXLH V  VH

DVLJXUHRPRJHQLWDWHDGDWHORUDQDOL]DWH$FHDVW FHULQ WUHEXLHV ILHDVLJXUDW úLYHULILFDW GHRDUHFH

atât treQGXOFkWúLOXQJLPHDúLDPSOLWXGLQHDSHULRGLFiW LLQXVXQWQLúWHP ULPLFRQVWDQWH

9.6. PREVIZIONAREA INDICATORILOR ECONOMICI PRIN

EXTRAPOLARE
'HWHUPLQDUHD VWDWLVWLF  D WUHQGXOXL úL D RVFLOD LLORU SHULRGLFH VH]RQLHUH VDX FLFOLFH

UHSUH]LQW  R HWDS  LPSRUWDQW  QHFHVDU  SHQWUX DQDOL]D HYROX LHL SUREDELOH YLLWRDUH D IHQRPHQXOXL

prezentat în SCR.
 ([WUDSRODUHD SUHYL]LRQDUHD SH ED]D GDWHORU 6&5 LPSOLF  RSHUD LD GH VWDELOLUH D XQRU

WHUPHQL YLLWRUL VLWXD L vQ DIDUD RUL]RQWXOXL GH DQDOL]  ÌQ DFHVW VFRS H[WU apolarea presupune
DGRSWDUHD XQXL PRGHO GH DQDOL]  <T IW úL LQWURGXFHUHD vQ PRGHO D YDORULL FRQYHQ LRQDOH D

YDULDELOHL WLPS FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH PRPHQWXOXL SHQWUX FDUH VH HIHFWXHD]  H[WUDSRODUHD 2 DVHPHQHD

H[WUDSRODUHVHQXPHúWHWHQGHQ LDO $FHDVW H[WUDSRODUHSUHVXSXQHXUP WRDUHOH

D FRQGL LLOH GH PDQLIHVWDUH DOH HYROX LHL IHQRPHQXOXL  DQDOL]DW vQ RUL]RQWXO 6&5 V  VH
)
PHQ LQ QHVFKLPEDWHúLvQRUL]RQWXOGHSURJQR] DGRSWDW t = T + 1 , T + K , (cu K ¬ 1 ).
EOXQJLPHD6&5WUHEXLHV ILHVXILFLHQWGHPDUHSHQWUXDVHVHVL]DUHJXODULWDWHDPLúF ULLvQ

WLPSDIHQRPHQXOXLDQDOL]DWÌQDFHVWVHQVWHRUHWLFLHQLLUHFRPDQG SHQWUXHODERUDUHDXQRUYDULDQWH

GHSURJQR] SULQH[WUDSRODUHFDOXQJLPHD6&5DQDOL]DW V ILHPDLPDUHGHDQL

F FLFOLFLWDWHD YDULDQWHL GH SURJQR]  HODERUDW  SULQ H xtrapolare depinde nu numai de

RUL]RQWXO 6&5 FL úL GH RUL]RQWXO GH SURJQR]  DGRSWDW 3HQWUX D UHVSHFWD FkW GH FkW LSRWH]D GH OD

SXQFWXODLDUYDULDQWDGHSURJQR] V QXILHSUHDPDUHÌQDFHVWVHQVSUDFWLFLHQLLUHFRPDQG V VH

utilizeze un orizont de prRJQR]  FDUH V  QX GHS úHDVF  R WUHLPH GLQ OXQJLPHD RUL]RQWXOXL SHQWUX
care s-D GHWHUPLQDW WHQGLQ D JHQHUDO  ÌQ IXQF LH GH PRGHOXO DGRSWDW úL GH OXQJLPHD RUL]RQWXOXL GH
SURJQR]  VFXUW  PHGLH OXQJ  úL IRDUWH OXQJ  H[WUDSRODUHD HVWH vQVR LW  GH R HURDUH GH HVWLPD LH

'LQDFHVWPRWLYVSXQHPF SULQH[WUDSRODUHVHHIHFWXHD] RHVWLPD LHSXQFWXDO 

'HFLGXS GHWHUPLQDUHDYHULGLF DFRPSRQHQWHORU6&5úLGXS FHV -au analizat punctele a,b

úL F HODERUDUHD YDULDQWHORU GH SURJQR]  SULQ PHWRGD H[WUDSRO ULL SUH supune prelungirea valorii
YDULDELOHLWLPSWFXSULQV vQPRGHOXOGHDMXVWDUH

Deci, modelele de extrapolare pot fi:

* *
Ŷ t = Y 0 + ( t − 1 )  (9.38)

sau
+ ,
(t −1)
Ŷ t = Y 0  I (9.39)
-
pentru t = T + 1 , T + k  N  RUL]RQW GH SURJQR]  - în cazul metodelor mecanice. În cazul
metodelor analitice FX OXDUH vQ FRQVLGHUDUH D WXWXURU REVHUYD LLORU SUH]HQWDWH vQ SDUDJUDIHOH
DQWHULRDUHIXQF LLOHGHDMXVWDUHGHYLQ

. . . .2
Ŷ t = a + bt s au Ŷ t = a + bt + ct (9.40)

ÌQ FD]XO vQ FDUH GDWHOH VWDWLVWLFH VH UHIHU  OD VHPHVWUH WULPHVWUH VDX OXQL DWXQFL YDORDUHD

H[WUDSRODW SHQWUXDON -lea anúL DOM-OHDVH]RQ GXS QDWXUDDGLWLY VDXPXOWLSOLFDWLY DQLYHOXOXLGH

HYROX LHVHGHWHUPLQ FX

Ŷ k j = Ŷ k j + S j s au Ŷ k j = Ŷ k j + S 0j (9.41)

ÌQFD]XOvQFDUHWUHQGXOXQHL6&5VHGHWHUPLQ SULQ000YDORULOHDFHVWXLDQXVHSRWXWLOL]D

pentru extrapolare. Trendul elaborat prin MMM sHXWLOL]HD] FXVXFFHVvQH[WUDSRODUHGDF vQDFHVW

VHQV VH XWLOL]HD]  PRGHOHOH DXWRUHJUHVLYH 0RGHOHOH DXWRUHJUHVLYH IXQGDPHQWDWH FX PHWRGD %R[ -
-HQNLQVRIHU SUHGLF LLSHUWLQHQWHXQHRULSHWHUPHQPHGLX

ÌQ FRQFOX]LH JUDGXO GH FRPSOH[LWDWH DO HYROX LHL IHQRPHQXOXL SUH]HQWDW vQ 6&5 QHFHVLW 

SHQWUX SURJQR]  HODERUDUHD PDL PXOWRU YDULDQWH GH FDOFXO IXQGDPHQWDWH SH R ULJXURDV  DQDOL] 

HFRQRPLF 
ÌQWUHE ULGHFRQWURO

• 3UH]HQWD LLPSOLFD LLOHQHUHVSHFW ULLSULQFLSLXOXLRPRJHQLW LLúLLPSRVLELOLW LLvQFRQ stituirea

unei serii cronologice.
• $QDOL]D LFRQ LQXWXOLQGLFDWRULORUGHVWRFvQFRPSDUD LHFXLQGLFDWRULLGHIOX[

• &kQGVHUHFRPDQG JUDILFHORUVHPL ««vQFD]XOUHSUH]HQW ULLXQHLVHULLFURQRORJLFH

-
• $QDOL]D LFRPSDUDWLYRVFLOD LLOHVH]RQLHUHúLFLFOLFH

• 3UH]HQWD LPHWRGHOHFDUHSHUPLWVHOHF LDIXQF LHLIRORVLW SHQWUXH[SULPDUHDWUHQGXOXL

• &XPVHVWDELOHúWHQXP UXOGHWHUPHQLSHQWUXFDOFXOXOPHGLLORUPRELOH

• $U WD L FRQGL LLOH vQ FDUH SHQWUX PRGHODUHD XQHL VHULL FURQRORJLFH SRDWH IL IRORVLW XQ PRGHO

aditiv.
• $U WD LFRQGL LLOHvQFDUHVHSRDWHIRORVLXQPRGHOPXOWLSOLFDWLY

• &HH[SULP XQLQGLFHGHVH]RQDOLWDWH

• $U WD L FRQ LQXWXO LQGLFDWRULORU FDUH SRW IL XWLOL]D L vQ P VXUDUHD OHJ WXULL GLQWUH HYROX LD D

GRX YDULDELOHHFRQRPLFH

• Cum se trece de la indicatRULL FX ED]  IL[  OD LQGLFDWRULL FX ED]  vQ ODQ  vQ FD]XO LQGLFDWRULORU

DEVROX L"GDUvQFD]XOLQGLFDWRULORUUHODWLYL"

• ÌQFHVLWXD LHúLGHFHVHIRORVHúWHPHGLDFURQRORJLF "

• Pentru o serie de momente nu se pot calcula:

a) VSRUXULFXED] vQODQ 
b) sporuriFXED] IL[ 
c) indici;
d) ritmuri;
e) PHGLDDULWPHWLF DWHUPHQLORUVHULHL
• 7HUPHQXOVWDWLVWLFGHÄUDW ´HVWHVLQRQLPFXFHOGHÄLQGLFH´

a) întotdeauna;
b) QLFLRGDW 
c) GRDUGDF UDWDH[SULP RHYROX LH
d) GRDUGDF H[SULP SRQGHUHDXQHLS U LGLQvQWUHJ

e) doar în cazul e[FHS LLORU

• &RPSRQHQWDFLFOLF DSDUHFDXUPDUHDDF LXQLL

a) factorilor sezonieri;
b) IDFWRULORUFHGHWHUPLQ ID]HOHGHFRQWUDF LHúLUHOD[DUHDIHQRPHQHORU
c) factorilor aleatori;
d) WHQGLQ HL
e) QXH[LVW DFHDVW FRPSRQHQW 
• &RPSRQHQWDVH]RQLHU DXQHLVHULLGHWLPSDSDUHFDUH]XOWDWDODF LXQLL

a) IOXFWXD LLORU OHJDWH GH DQRWLPS VDX FH VH UHSURGXF VLPLODU vQ WLPS vQ FXUVXO XQHL ]LOH

V SW PkQLOXQLWULPHVWUH

b) IOXFWXD LLORUFLFOLFH
c) factorilor aleatori;
d) WHQGLQ HL
e) FRPSRQHQWDVH]RQLHU QXH[LVW 

• 'DF  SH R SHULRDG  GH FLQFL DQL LQGLFHOH PHGLX GH FUHúWHUH D SURGXF LHL XQXL DJHQW

HFRQRPLFDIRVWGHvQFRQGL LLOHvQFDUHSURGXF LDHVWHRYDULDELO vQVXPDELO úWLLQGF vQ

XOWLPXO DQ QLYHOXO SURGXF LHL D IRVW FX  GH XQLW L PDL PDUH GHFkW vQ SULPXO DQ YDORDUHD

inL LDO DSURGXF LHLDIRVWGH

a) 44,21;
b) 4,21;
c) 3;
 d) nu se poate calcula.
• ÌQ DQXO LQGLFHOHPHGLXOXQDUDOSUH XULORUGHFRQVXPODVHUYLFLLDIRVWSHQWUXSHULRDGD

august-decembrie, 1,0319. Indicele mediu pe anul 2000 a fost:

a) 1,0505;
b) 1,0407;
c) 1,0435;
d) 1,0436;
e) 104,35%.
• $F LXQHDGHFRUHFWDUHDYDORULORUvQUHJLVWUDWHDOHXQXLIHQRPHQHFRQRPLFR -social la curba sa
GHWHQGLQ GHILQHúWHRSHUD LXQHDGH

a) emitere a valorilor aberante;

b) ajustare;
c) grupare;
d) HúDQWLRQDUH
e) FRUHF LHDHURULORUVLVWHPDWLFH
• Valorile ajustate aleXQHLVHULLGHWLPSSRWILID GHFHOHvQUHJLVWUDWH

a) <;
b) >;
c) =;
d) <,=,>;
e) nu se pot compara.
• 'DF  SHQWUX R VHULH FURQRORJLF  VXPD YDORULORU DMXVWDWH HVWH DSUR[LPDWLY HJDO  FX VXPD

valorilor înregistrate, atunci:

a) PHWRGHGHDMXVWDUHDOHDV QXHVWHSRWULYLW 

b) PHWRGDGHDMXVWDUHDOHDV HVWHRSWLP 

c) PHWRGDGHDMXVWDUHDOHDV HVWHXQLF 

d) PHWRGDGHDMXVWDUHDOHDV HVWHFRUHFW 

e) PHWRGDGHDMXVWDUHDOHDV HVWHH[DFW 

• 8Q ULWP GH PRGLILFDUH D XQXL IHQRPHQ ULWP FH DUH YDORDUHD SR]LWLY  LPSOLF  vQ PRG

necesar:
a) valoareDVXSUDXQLWDU DLQGLFHOXLGHGLQDPLF 

b) YDORDUHDQHJDWLY DPRGLILF ULLDEVROXWH

c) YDORDUHDQHJDWLY DVSRUXOXLFXED] IL[ 
d) stagnarea fenomenului.
• ,QGLFHOHPHGLXGHGLQDPLF VHFDOFXOHD] FD

a) PHGLHJHRPHWULF LQGLIHUHQWGHYDORULOHLQGLFLORUGHGLQDPLF FXED] PRELO 

b) PHGLH JHRPHWULF  QXPDL GDF  LQGLFLL GH GLQDPLF  FX ED]  IL[  SUH]LQW  YDORUL

apropiate;
c) PHGLH JHRPHWULF  QXPDL GDF  LQGLFLL GH GLQDPLF  FX ED]  PRELO  SUH]LQW  YDORUL

aproximativ egale între ele;

d) PHGLDDULWPHWLF DLQGLFLORUGHGLQDPLF FXED] PRELO 

e) PHGLDDUPRQLF DLQGLFLORUGHGLQDPLF FXED] PRELO 

• (YROX LD3,%ORFXLWRUDIRVWXUP WRDUHDID GHDQXODQWHULRU

1997 1998 1999 2000

+4,0 +7,3 +4,4 -6,3
0HGLDDQXDO DHYROX LHLSURFHQWXDO HVWHGH

a) -0,09%;
b) 102,0%;
c) 201,3%;
d) +2,21%;
e) +4,35%.
 • 6HFXQRVFXUP WRDUHOHGDWHSHQWUXGRX  UL$úL%

A) PIB/locuitor = 10.000 USD/loc; FUHúWHUHDPHGLHGLQXOWLPLLFLQFLDQL

B) PIB/locuitor = 1.000 USD/loc; FUHúWHUHDPHGLHGLQXOWLPLLFLQFLDQL
&XQRVFkQGF úLvQYLLWRUVHYRUPHQ LQHFRQGL LLOHHYROX LLORU anterioare, nivelul
3,%ORFXLWRUVHYDHJDOL]DvQWUH ULOH$úL%vQ

a) 15,12 ani;
b) 79,43 ani;
c) 103,20 ani;
d) 179,43 ani;
e) 7,10 ani.
6HFXQRDúWHF 

lg 2 = 0,30103; lg 1,05 = 0,021189; lg 5 = 0,69897; lg 150 = 2,17609; lg 20 =

1,30103; lg 105 = 2, 021189; lg 1,02 = 0,008600; lg 102 = 2,00860.
• 'HVSUHHYROX LDFLIUHLGHDIDFHULDXQHLVRFLHW LFRPHUFLDOHVHFXQRVFXUP WRDUHOHGDWH

ANI 1997 1998 1999 2000

PRGLILF ULUHODWLYHDFLIUHLGH +3 +4 +2 +4
DIDFHULID GHDQXOSUHFHGHQW

ùWLLQGF FLIUDGHDIDFHULGLQDIRVWGHPOGOHLPRGLILFDUHD PHGLH DQXDO 

DEVROXW vQSHULRDGD– 2000 a fost de:

a) 1,2 mld. lei/an;
b) 1,2%/an;
c) 2,5 mld. lei/an;
d) 201%/an;
e) 3 mld. lei/an.
• Pe baza unei serii cronologice din perioada 1999 – 2000, format GLQWHUPHQLFRQVHFXWLYLV -
DDMXQVODFRQFOX]LDF WHQGLQ DGHHYROX LHDXQHLYDULDELOHHVWHH[SULPDW SULQIXQF LD<W 

Σ/
WvQFRQGL LDvQFDUH = 0). Valorile estimate ale variabilei analizate pentru 2001
– 2002, în aceasW RUGLQHVXQW
a) 1300; 1480; 1600;
b) 1120; 1800; 1240;
c) 340; 280; 220;
d) 460; 520; 580;
e) 760; 820;880.
• 'HVSUHHYROX LDPLMORDFHORUIL[HODVIkUúLWXODQXOXLvQ5RPkQLDvQSHULRDGD – 2000, se
FXQRVFGDWHOHFRQYHQ LRQDOH

Anii 1997 1998 1999 2000

ModificaUHDID GHDQXO 194,3 189,8 177,2 166,9
precedent (mld. lei)
ùWLLQGF vQYDORDUHDDEVROXW DXQXLSURFHQWGHFUHúWHUHID 
de 1996 a mijloacelor
fixe a fost de 10 mld. lei, modificarea medie UHODWLY DQXDO vQSHULRDGD– 2000 a fost de:

a) 114,7%;
b) 182,05 mld. lei/an;
c) 4,7%;
d) -4,7%;
e) 14,7%.
• Ajustarea (determinarea trendului) seriilor cronologice prin metoda mediilor mobile se
UHDOL]HD] DWXQFLFkQG

a) IHQRPHQXOSUH]LQW RHYROX LHDSUR[LPDWLYH[SRQHQ LDO 

b) LQGLFLGHGLQDPLF FXED] PRELO SUH]LQW valori apropiate între ele;
c) YDULD LDWHUPHQLORUVHULHLSUH]LQW HYLGHQWHUHJXODULW LFLFOLFH
d) nu se pot aplica metodele analitice de ajustare;
e) YDULD LDWHUPHQLORUVHULHLSUH]LQW RHYLGHQW OLQLDULWDWH
• În anul t1 ritmul cifrei de afaceri a unei firme a fRVWGHID GHW0ÌQDQXOXUP WRUW2
,
FLIUDGHDIDFHULDFUHVFXWFXùWLLQGF VSRUXODEVROXWDOFLIUHLGHDIDFHULvQSHULRDGDW2

– t0 a fost de 100 u.m., cifra de afaceri din anul t1 a fost de:

a) 60 u.m.;
b) 120 u.m.;
c) 20 u.m.;
d) 27,27 u.m.;
e) nu se pRDWHFDOFXODGLQFDX]DLQIRUPD LHLLQHILFLHQWH