Sector Forecast:

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Global Foodservice

CS21006FC

foodservice channel

August 4, 2021

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Understand the latest forecasts for the global

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Executive Summary

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The COVID-19 pandemic induced a global slowdown, resulting in a decline of $xxxxbn across the foodservice industry in 2020. When 2020
absolute values are compared to 2019 absolute values, the sector's decline is xx%

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▪ Asia, the largest foodservice market, experienced the biggest decline in terms of absolute value in 2020 and accounted for xx% of global losses,
followed by xx% in Western Europe and xx% in North America
▪ However, the recommencement of trade, commerce, and business activities in Asia, which accounted for xx% of the total foodservice market for

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2020, is expected to drive growth in the coming year. The overall foodservice market is forecast to register a value share growth ofxx% in 2021
with Asia contributing xx% to the growth

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Key notes
GlobalData will be reviewing and updating market data forecasts throughout 2021 to provide the most up-to-date view on the foodservice markets
around the world. This accounts for shifts in GDP, the epidemiology of the disease, and changing consumer consumption behaviors. These sector
forecast reports will track how these forecasts shift over time in reaction to events globally. Please refer to the methodology document in the Appendix
section for further details

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Contents

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Global and Regional Summary

Regional Outlook

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Channel Outlook

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Appendix
▪ Methodology
▪ About GlobalData
▪

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Contact Us

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Global and regional summary: After a decline in 2020, the

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foodservice industry is set to register growth during 2020–2025
Asia, the largest foodservice market,
witnessed the highest decline at Global slowdown in foodservice by net $xxxxxbn in 2020 vs 2019

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As of June 28, 2021
$497.3bn in 2020 vs 2019

▪ According to GlobalData estimates, the Difference 2020 vs 2019 ($m)

Africa
global foodservice industry suffered a 100,000.0
loss of $xxxxbn in 2020, owing to the
disruption caused by the COVID-19

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Australasia
pandemic.
East Europe
Middle East & North Africa

1. Global and regional summary

▪ Asia, the largest foodservice market, Latin America
accounted for xx% of the global sales in

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2020. However, the loss generated by
the pandemic in the Asian foodservice
market is also equivalent to xx% of the West Europe
total losses in 2020. North America

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▪ Western Europe (xx%) and North
America (xx%) accounted for xx%and
xx% of the global losses, Asia
respectively, in 2020.

▪ However, with vaccination drives and the

recovery of trade and economic activity,
globally, the foodservice industry is
forecast to register growth during the Africa Asia Australasia East Europe Latin America Middle East, North Africa North America West Europe
period (2020–2025), with a CAGR of
x%. Latin America and Eastern Europe
are expected to record the fastest CAGRs
of x and x%, respectively, during the Size of circle = $m 2020 Value (OSP) 5-Year CAGR (2020–2025)
period.
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Source: GlobalData Market Analyzers, Foodservice: chain vs independent, accessed on June 28, 2021
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Global and regional summary by channel: Restaurants account for more than 70% of the

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overall foodservice sales
Across all Asian channels, travel outlook is expected to grow faster with a CAGR of 14.9% for the period 2020-2025

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Global retail sales by region and channel ($m and 5-years CAGR )
As of June 28, 2021

1. Global and regional summary

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Source: GlobalData Market Analyzers, Foodservice: chain vs independent, accessed on June 28, 2021
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Biggest country by value and CAGR: The US accounts for over 25% of the global foodservice

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industry
The US, China, and Japan are the top three foodservice markets globally

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Global retail sales by country and channel, $m and 5-Year CAGR (2020-2025)
As of June 28, 2021

1. Global and regional summary

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Source: GlobalData Market Analyzers, Foodservice: chain vs independent, accessed on June 28, 2021
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Africa outlook: South African foodservice industry continues to

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South African foodservice sales to
be further impacted due new battle the impact of COVID-19
lockdown measures
Total value for 2021 and 2022

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As of June 28, 2021
▪ The recent steps towards containing the
virus outbreak forced authorities to ban Value $m (OSP)
alcohol sales and dine-in services for 14
days1. Moreover, enforcement of new
wage laws on employers that included

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multiple bonuses and pay hikes to
employees is being put on hold by the
labor court
▪ Restaurants, pubs, clubs, and bars

2. Regional Outlook
together account for a share of more than
xx% of total foodservice sales in South
Africa. Therefore, the government's
unfavorable attitude currently towards
the already suffering industry will further

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deteriorate the sector's outlook
▪ The resurgence of the COVID-19 virus in
the country and slow vaccination rate
reflect uncertainty among consumers and
the recent announcement of stricter
lockdown measures will further impact South Africa
foodservice outlets3

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Source: GlobalData Market Analyzers, Foodservice: chain vs independent, accessed on June 28, 2021; [1] New24, June 2021; [2] Business Insider, March 2021; [3] Conversation, June 2021
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Asia outlook: China, Japan, and India forecast to record

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Asia offers a positive outlook in
2021, after witnessing a slump in
2020 owing to the pandemic
growth of over xx% in 2021
Total value for 2021 and 2022

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As of June 28, 2021
▪ The region is expected to witness high
growth of xx% in 2021, after dwindling Value $m (OSP)
sales driven by COVID-19 in 2020. In 2021,
Asia is forecast a CAGR of x%
▪ China, Japan, and India together account

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for nearly xx% of the total Asian market*,
with shares of xx%, xx%, and xx%,
respectively. China's situation is expected
to improve in 2021 with a rise of xx%.

2. Regional Outlook
China saw the beginning of COVID-19 and
has become the first major economy to
register growth, driven by strict lockdown
measures and a strong vaccination drive1

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▪ Among these top three markets, China is
forecast the highest growth of xx% in
2021, followed by India at xx%, and
Japan with xx%. India, the third largest
foodservice market, is expected to
overcome last year's decline in 2021, with
the country already restarting its
foodservice operations by easing
restrictions. The integration of hygiene
protocols by restaurants and food delivery
aggregators has increased consumer
confidence in the country and kick-started
sector recovery2
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Source: GlobalData Market Analyzers, Foodservice: chain vs independent, accessed on June 28, 2021; [1] Wall Street Journal, March 2021; [2] Food And Beverage News, March 2021; * 2021 operating selling
price (OSP) in terms of value in $m
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Methodology

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▪ The GlobalData COVID-19 Impact Market Model – Foodservice model is based upon three main input streams:

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1. Latest (revised) GDP & Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) numbers – which act as key driver inputs into the model
1. GDP has been chosen as it captures the bulk of measures being taken by Governments around the world to address the impact of the virus and the effects of these and the
virus on countries economies as a whole.

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2. This model is scenario-based and the outputs of our medium-severity impact scenario (what GlobalData views as most likely on present information) has been taken as the
baseline for our syndicated scenario. In general this is referred to as our "Slowdown" scenario.

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3. These driver values are then inputted in to model which ascertains the historic correlation between GDP and other drivers in the model. The results from this analysis are then
correlated to market data to understand changing dynamics in consumption.

2. Expected epidemic and lockdown (if any) forecasts – this input refines GDP estimates. GlobalData epidemiology data on number of cases, deaths and
mortality are fed in to the model to understand changing trends from week to week. Analysis is undertaken on infection levels and rates from the

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previous week as well as historic pandemic development and the Coronavirus evolution in other countries. A judgmental forecast is then made on the
length of lock down and pandemic length based on this information which then determines a further GDP figure impact.

3. Survey inputs on consumers' changing consumption behavior – which enables adjustments that account for category switching and changing
consumption habits
▪ The outputs from the survey feed in to the datasets in order to determine how consumption changes by category are occurring

▪ These three streams combine to produce the updated consumption forecasts for 2020-2025 on a regular basis throughout 2020 – every week between April-
June, every two weeks between July-Sep, and every month between Oct-Dec. Updated numbers on the Slowdown scenario will be released to the Analyzer
as a result.

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About GlobalData

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In an increasingly fast-moving, complex, and uncertain world, it's never been harder for organizations to predict and navigate the

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Contact us

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For any questions or further
enquiries please contact us at:
reportstore@globaldata.com

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