Shampoo Sales Data - Exponential Smoothing

Year Period Sales Forecast (ES)

1 1 310.0 310.0
2 171.6 310.0
3 220.4 263.9
4 152.9 249.4
5 217.2 217.2
6 200.0 217.2
7 274.9 211.5
8 263.7 232.6
9 231.2 243.0
10 152.9 239.1
11 372.2 210.4
12 223.5 264.3
2 13 232.9 250.7
14 182.7 244.8
15 250.6 224.1
16 319.4 232.9
17 236.7 261.7
18 336.7 253.4
19 262.4 281.2
20 355.3 274.9
21 340.0 301.7
22 487.5 314.5
23 311.5 372.1
24 398.7 351.9
3 25 395.8 367.5
26 518.5 376.9
27 369.1 424.1
28 487.3 405.8
29 462.8 433.0
30 505.2 442.9
31 649.9 463.6
32 470.8 525.7
33 765.1 507.4
34 547.6 593.3
35 646.4 578.1
36 719.8 600.8
4 37 640.5

Mean absolute deviation

 Absolute Squared Absolute Smoothing
error error % error factor
0.333
138.40 19154.56 80.7%
43.51 1892.97 19.7%
96.47 9305.64 63.1%
900.0
0.00 0.00 0.0%
17.22 296.39 8.6% 800.0
63.42 4021.72 23.1% 700.0
31.11 967.72 11.8%
11.76 138.35 5.1% 600.0

86.13 7418.48 56.3% 500.0

161.80 26180.27 43.5%
400.0
40.79 1663.61 18.2%
17.79 316.40 7.6% 300.0
62.04 3848.48 33.9% 200.0
26.51 702.70 10.6%
86.46 7475.15 27.1% 100.0

25.08 629.02 10.6% 0.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242
83.35 6947.12 24.8%
18.75 351.40 7.1%
80.41 6466.27 22.6%
38.27 1464.79 11.3%
173.02 29936.90 35.5%
60.59 3670.72 19.4%
46.74 2184.54 11.7%
28.25 798.17 7.1%
141.62 20056.62 27.3%
55.01 3026.30 14.9%
81.53 6646.82 16.7%
29.80 888.04 6.4%
62.30 3881.49 12.3%
186.21 34675.10 28.7%
54.89 3012.70 11.7%
257.73 66425.05 33.7%
45.66 2084.69 8.3%
68.28 4661.70 10.6%
119.00 14160.15 16.5%
72.57 8438.57 21.33%

MAD MSE MAPE

Mean absolute deviation
Mean squared error
Mean absolute percent error
141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637