Index FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E

Volumes 1,155,041 1,292,406 1,429,201 1,568,368 1,779,574 1,998,148

y-y growth (%) (1.4) 11.9 10.6 9.7 13.5 12.3
NRV/unit 379,136 386,648 402,589 433,794 448,212 470,330
y-y growth (%) 1.9 2.0 4.1 7.8 3.3 4.9
Capacity 1,510,000 1,500,000 1,520,000 1,750,000 1,750,000 2,000,000
y-y growth (%) 19.8 (0.7) 1.3 15.1 - 14.3
Utilization (%) 76.5 86.2 94.0 89.6 101.7 99.9
Net Revenues 437,918 499,706 575,381 680,348 797,627 939,790
y-y growth (%) 0.5 14.1 15.1 18.2 17.2 17.8
Raw Materials 313,145 350,080 386,974 467,316 549,750 653,185
% of Sales 71.5 70.1 67.3 68.7 68.9 69.5
Employee 13,681 16,066 19,788 23,310 28,338 31,866
% of Sales 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.4
Other Exp 59,221 66,431 79,775 86,205 98,924 106,944
% of Sales 13.5 13.3 13.9 12.7 12.4 11.4

Total Expenses 386,047 432,577 486,537 576,831 677,012 791,995

EBITDA 51,871 67,129 88,844 103,517 120,615 147,795
EBITDA margin (%, RHS) 11.8 13.4 15.4 15.2 15.1 15.7
Growth (%) 22.6 29.4 32.3 16.5 16.5 22.5
Other Income 7,317 8,316 14,610 23,001 20,455 24,564
Growth (%) (10) 14 76 57 (11) 20
Depreciation 20,844 24,703 28,202 26,021 27,579 29,562
Growth (%) 12 19 14 (8) 6 7
% of Gross Block 9.8 10.0 13.5 15.4 13.8 12.6

13.1% 14.8% 14.2% 15.2%

EBIT 38,344 50,742 75,252 100,497 113,491 142,797
Interest 1,759 2,060 815 894 3,457 845
Growth (%) (7) 17 (60) 10 287 (76)
% of Total Debt 10.9 17.6 21.8 25.0 116.3 70.0
22.1% 63.3% 31.9% 116.3%

Pre -tax Profit 36,586 48,682 74,437 99,603 110,034 141,952

Total Tax 8,755 11,570 20,794 26,101 32,816 41,876
tax rate (%) 23.9 23.8 27.9 26.2 29.8 29.5
Deferred Tax 1,276 (752) 380 2,719 (679) (876)
deferred tax rate (%) 3.5 (1.5) 0.5 2.7 (0.6) (0.6)
Minority Int

Adj. PAT 27,831 37,112 53,643 73,502 77,218 100,076

y-y growth (%) 16.3 33.4 44.5 37.0 5.1 29.6
Net margin (%) (RHS) 6.4 7.4 9.3 10.8 9.7 10.6
EOI (income)/expense - - - - -

Reported PAT 27,831 37,112 53,643 73,502 77,218 100,076

FV 5 5 5 5 5 5
Equity 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510
Shares outstanding 302 302 302 302 302 302
Diluted Shares outstanding 302 302 302 302 302 302
Adj. EPS (Rs) 92.1 122.9 177.6 243.4 255.7 331.4
Reported EPS (Rs) 92.1 122.9 177.6 243.4 255.7 331.4
Diluted Adj. EPS (Rs) 92.1 122.9 177.6 243.4 255.7 331.4
Diluted Reported EPS (Rs) 92.1 122.9 177.6 243.4 255.7 331.4

PE Ratio (x) 102.0 76.5 52.9 38.6 36.8 28.4

Cash EPS (Rs) 161.1 204.7 271.0 329.5 347.0 429.3
Book Value (Rs) 694 785 990 1,206 1,383 1,584
EBIT-otherincome 31,027 42,426 60,642 77,496 93,036 118,233
Dividend 3,625 7,552 10,573 22,650 24,160 32,525
DPS (Rs) 12 25 35 75 80 108
Div yield (%) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1
Dividend Payout (%) 13.0 20.3 19.7 30.8 31.3 32.5
Price 9,400 9,400 9,400 9,400 9,400 9,400
Market cap 2,839,552 2,838,800 2,838,800 2,838,800 2,838,800 2,838,800
Dividend Tax (Rs) 616 1,538 2,152 4,610 4,968 6,620
Dividend Tax (%) 17 20 20 20 20 20

Saleable investments 274,948 343,613 399,509

check (0) -
Key Ratios
Income growth 0.5 14.1 15.1 18.2 17.2 17.8
EBITDA growth 22.6 29.4 32.3 16.5 16.5 22.5
Earnings growth 16.3 33.4 44.5 37.0 5.1 29.6

EBITDA Margin 11.8 13.4 15.4 15.2 15.1 15.7

PBT Margin 8.4 9.7 12.9 14.6 13.8 15.1
PAT Margin 6.4 7.4 9.3 10.8 9.7 10.6

ROE (%) 14.1 16.6 20.0 22.2 19.8 22.3

ROCE (%) 17.5 21.1 27.4 29.7 28.4 31.4
Tax rate 23.9 23.8 27.9 26.2 29.8 29.5
Sales to fixed assets 1.9 1.9 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.7
EV 2,761,975 2,810,455 2,828,615 2,821,710 2,827,024 2,821,325
EV/EBITDA (x) 53.2 41.9 31.8 27.3 23.4 19.1
2,433,989
16.5
check (0) -
(Rs mn) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E
Sources of Funds
Share Capital 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510
Reserves and Surplus 208,270 235,532 297,332 362,801 416,063 476,994
Shareholder's Funds 209,780 237,042 298,842 364,311 417,573 478,504
Long term borrowings 4,604 1,448 - - - -
Short term borrowings 12,247 354 774 4,836 1,108 1,305
Total Loan 16,851 1,802 774 4,836 1,108 1,305
Deferred Tax Liabilities 5,866 4,810 1,943 4,662 5,589 4,713
Minority Int
Other Liabilities 2,386 1,054 8,075 11,050 15,853 18,796
% of sales 0.5 0.2 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.0

Total 234,883 244,708 309,634 384,859 440,123 503,319

Goodwill on Consolidation
App of Funds
Fixed assets 227,018 264,617 152,005 186,595 214,239 256,280
Accumulated Dep 119,114 142,024 26,905 53,668 80,649 110,211
Less : Impairment of Assets
Net Block 107,904 122,593 125,100 132,927 133,590 146,069
Capex 35,816 30,213 (121,371) 37,044 36,380 50,000
Capex/ revenues 8% 6% -21% 5% 5% 5%
Lease Adjustment - - - -
CWIP 26,214 18,828 10,069 12,523 21,259 29,218
CWIP/Capex 73% 62% -8% 34% 58% 58%
Other non current assets 533 441 17,013 16,269 18,907 22,277
% of sales 0.1 0.1 3.0 2.4 2.4 2.4

Investments 101,179 128,140 199,322 284,810 352,902 402,902

Liquid 88,131 29,964 10,568 21,788 12,173 12,173
illiquid 13,048 98,176 188,754 263,022 340,729 390,729

Current Assets 70,167 65,491 67,896 65,977 67,043 83,567

Inventories 17,059 26,859 31,321 32,622 31,608 36,047
Inventory days 14 20 20 18 14 14
Debtors 14,137 10,698 13,222 11,992 14,618 17,223
Debtors days 12 8 8 6 7 7
Cash and Bank 6,297 183 391 138 711 6,607
Long term loans and advances 16,384 13,493 4 3 2 2
% of sales 3.7 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Short term loans and advances 16,290 14,258 31 25 30 35
% of sales 3.7 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other current assets - - 22,927 21,197 20,074 23,652
% of sales - - 4.0 3.1 2.5 2.5
Total Loans and Advances/ Current assets 32,674 27,751 22,962 21,225 20,106 23,690

Current Liab & Prov. 71,114 90,785 109,766 127,647 153,578 180,714
Trade payables 54,076 59,876 74,073 83,673 104,970 115,864
Trade Payable days 45 44 47 45 48 45
Other current liabilities (excl current maturities) 6,893 11,025 30,021 39,265 42,743 48,921
other current liabilities days 6 8 19 21 20 19
Current maturities 1,388 3,354 1,535 - -
Total Current Liabilities 62,357 74,255 105,629 122,938 147,713 164,785
Payable days 52 54 67 66 68 64
Long term provisions 1,980 2,926 148 219 265 312
% of sales 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Short term provisions 6,777 13,604 3,989 4,490 5,600 15,617
Provisions 8,757 16,530 4,137 4,709 5,865 15,929
Provision Days 7 12 3 3 3 6

Net Current Assets (947) (25,294) (41,870) (61,670) (86,535) (97,147)

Net WC days (ex cash) (6) (19) (27) (33) (40) (40)
Miscellaneous Exp - -
Other Assets

Total Assets 234,883 244,708 309,634 384,859 440,123 503,319

Check - - - - - -
Capital employed 233,885 247,008 303,094 373,809 424,270 484,523
Cash flow statement
Cash flow from operating activity
PBT 36,585 48,682 74,437 99,603 110,034 141,952
Add: Depreciation 20,844 24,703 28,202 26,021 27,579 29,562
Add: Interest (510) 974 815 522 2,778 845
Less: taxes paid (8,320) (10,407) (19,099) (23,214) (30,550) (42,752)
Add: other adjustments (7,125) (8,202) (22,079) (20,049)
Less: working capital changes 7,562 7,457 490 21,940 28,058 6,065

Total operating cash flows 49,036 63,207 84,845 102,793 117,850 135,671
Operating CF w/o WC changes 41,474 55,750 84,355 80,853 89,792 129,607

Cash flow from investing activity 79,197 85,671

Capital expenditure (34,927) (31,487) (26,450) (33,723) (38,653) (50,000)
Change in investments (17,394) (20,271) (46,592) (58,541) (45,046) (50,000)
Interest/Dividend received 2,491 2,058 768 485 878

Total investing cash flow (49,830) (49,700) (72,274) (91,779) (82,821) (100,000)

Cash flow from financing activity

Share issuances - - - - -
Change in borrowings 3,784 (13,282) (2,353) 2,527 (3,728) 197
Dividend (2,417) (3,625) (7,552) (10,573) (22,656) (29,128)
Interest payment (1,615) (2,098) (921) (1,095) (3,464) (845)
Others (411) (616) (1,537) (2,126) (4,608)

Total financing cash flow (659) (19,621) (12,363) (11,267) (34,456) (29,775)

Net change in cash (1,453) (6,114) 208 (253) 573 5,896

Opening cash & CE 7,750 6,297 183 391 138 711
Closing cash & CE 6,297 183 391 138 711 6,607

- - - - - -

Net debt (76,189) (24,991) (8,650) (17,090) (11,776) (17,475)

Capex 35,816 30,213 (121,371) 37,044 36,380 50,000
free cash 14,109 31,720 58,395 69,070 79,197 85,671

Secured loans 12,247 - -

Unsecured loans 4,604 1,802 774 4,836
Domestic loans 11,970 933 774 4,836 1,108 1,305
Foreign currency loans 4,881 869 -

Total debt including current maturities 18,239 5,156 2,309 4,836 1,108 1,305

Net intangible asset 1,827 2,923 3,469 - - -

Revenue/unit 379,136 386,648 402,589 433,794 448,212 470,330

RM/unit 271,112 270,875 270,762 297,963 308,922 326,895
Emp cost/unit 11,845 12,431 13,845 14,863 15,924 15,948
Other expenses/unit 51,272 51,401 55,818 54,965 55,589 53,521
EBITDA/unit 44,908 51,941 62,163 66,003 67,777 73,966
Adj. PAT/unit 24,095 28,715 37,534 46,865 43,391 50,084

Raw material mix

Cost of materials consumed 288,646 327,987 354,839 426,296 449,413
Purchase of traded goods 24,314 26,652 32,066 44,821 99,930
(Increase)/Decrease in goods 185 (4,559) 69 (3,801) 407
- - - - -
% of Sales
Cost of materials consumed 65.9 65.6 61.7 62.7 56.3
Purchase of traded goods 5.6 5.3 5.6 6.6 12.5
(Increase)/Decrease in goods 0.0 (0.9) 0.0 (0.6) 0.1

Red Flags FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Increase in sale and increase in receivables
Increase in sale (%) 0.5 14.1 15.1 18.2
Increase in receivables (%) (3.8) (24.3) 23.6 (9.3)
Increase in receivables days (0.5) (4.0) 0.6 (2.0)
Difference 4.3 38.4 (8.4) 27.5

Increase in sale to related parties

Increase in sale (%) 0.5 14.1 15.1 18.2
Sales to related parties - 24,701 27,523 46,952
Increase in sale to related parties (%) 11 71
Difference 4 (52)
Source: AR

Link between PAT and Networth

Reported PAT 27,830.5 37,112.0 53,643.0 73,502.0
Dividend + Div Tax 4,241.0 9,090.0 12,725.0 27,260.1
Change in networth 23,991.0 27,262.0 61,800.0 65,469.0
Difference 401.5 (760.0) 20,882.0 19,227.1

Link between PAT and Tax

Tax rate 23.9 23.8 27.9 26.2
R&D benefit as % of PBT 18% 13% 8% 6%
Other reasons for exemption Provisions, MAT, deferred taxes
PBT after deduction 30,010 42,122 68,502 93,199
Tax rate after deduction (%) 29.2 27.5 30.4 28.0
Tax rate 0
Change in PAT and cash flows
Change in PAT 3,909.2 9,281.5 16,531.0 19,859.0
Change in op. cash flow w/o wc changes (%) 2,692.0 14,276.0 28,605.0 (3,502.0)
Difference (1,217.2) 4,994.5 12,074.0 (23,361.0)
Source: AR

Match WC in BS to Cash flow

WC change in BS (%) 8,518 16,901 23,805 22,522
WC change in CF (%) 7,562 7,457 490 21,940
Difference 956 9,444 23,315 582
Source: AR

Match capex in Bs to Cash flow

Capex change in BS (35,816) (30,213) 121,371 (37,044)
Capex change in CF (34,927) (31,487) (26,450) (33,723)

Difference (889) 1,274 147,821 (3,321)

Source: AR

Track writeoffs - Inventory, receivables, etc

Inventory writeoff in BS No writeoff
Inventory writeoff in P&L
Provision for doubtful trade receivables 6 6
Source: AR
 FY20E FY21E
2,264,653 2,455,663 12% 13%
13.3 8.4
489,978 505,222 5% 4%
4.2 3.1
2,250,000 2,500,000
12.5 11.1
100.7 98.2
1,109,630 1,240,654 18% 18% 18%
18.1 11.8 (41,870) (61,670) (86,535) (97,147) (116,534)
776,998 894,063 19% 19% -7% -9% -11% -10% -11%
70.0 72.1
35,778 38,640 12% 12%
3.2 3.1
119,133 108,156 8% 11%
10.7 8.7

931,908 1,040,859 17% 18%

177,721 199,795 23% 20%
16.0 16.1
20.2 12.4
32,918 38,618 20% 34%
34 17
31,364 33,205 7% 6%
6 6
11.2 10.0

16.2% 16.5%
179,275 205,208 26% 26%
996 326 -76% 18%
18 (67)
70.0 20.0

178,278 204,881 29% 26%

52,592 61,464 28% 26%
29.5 30.0
(1,100) (1,264)
(0.6) (0.6)

125,686 143,417 28% 30% 26%

 25.6 14.1
11.3 11.6

125,686 143,417 30% 26%

5 5
1,510 1,510
302 302
302 302
416.2 474.9 30% 26%
416.2 474.9
416.2 474.9 30% 26%
416.2 474.9

22.6 19.8
520.0 584.8
1,825 2,100
146,357 166,590
43,990 50,196
146 166
1.5 1.8
35.0 35.0
9,400 9,400
2,838,800 2,838,800
8,954 10,217
20 20

472,730 549,253

18.1 11.8
20.2 12.4
25.6 14.1

16.0 16.1
16.1 16.5
11.3 11.6

24.4 24.2
34.4 34.4
 29.5 30.0
3.6 3.5
2,820,341 2,823,999
15.9 14.1
2,359,784 2,286,919
13.3 11.4

FY20E FY21E

1,510 1,510 0% 0%
549,737 632,741 15% 15%
551,247 634,251 15% 15%
- -
1,541 1,723 18% 18%
1,541 1,723 18% 18%
3,613 2,349 -16% -23%

22,193 24,813 19% 18%

2.0 2.0

578,594 663,136 14% 15%

306,280 356,280 20% 20%

141,575 174,780 37% 28%

164,705 181,500 9% 13%

50,000 50,000 37% 0%
5% 4%

29,218 29,218 37% 0%

58% 58%
26,303 29,409 18% 18%
5.5 5.3

474,902 554,902 14% 18%

12,173 12,173 0% 0%
462,729 542,729 15% 18%

98,696 105,949 25% 18%

 42,561 47,587 14% 18%
14 14
20,336 22,737
7 7
7,828 4,351
3 3
0.0 0.0
42 47
0.0 0.0
27,926 31,224 18% 18%
2.5 2.5
27,971 31,274

215,230 237,841
130,724 142,760 10% 13%
43 42
54,721 57,784 14% 12%
18 17

185,445 200,544
61 59
369 412
0.0 0.0
29,416 36,885 179% 88%
29,785 37,297
10 11

(116,534) (131,892) (116,534) -0.10502

(41) (40) (131,892) -0.106308

578,594 663,136
- -
556,401 638,323

178,278 204,881
31,364 33,205
 996 326
(53,692) (62,729)

6,179 3,928

163,126 179,612
156,947 175,684

113,126 129,612
(50,000) (50,000)
(72,000) (80,000)

(122,000) (130,000)

236 182
(39,145) (52,944)
(996) (326)

(39,905) (53,088)

1,221 (3,476)
6,607 7,828
7,828 4,351

- -

(18,459) (14,801)
50,000 50,000
113,126 129,612
 1,541 1,723

1,541 1,723

- -

489,978 505,222
343,098 364,082
15,798 15,735
52,605 44,044
78,476 81,361
55,499 58,402

FY20E FY21E
(131,892)
-11%
 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 FY2018 1QFY19

Gross Block in the beginning of the period 199,118 202,898 206,679 210,459 199,118 235,498
Additions during the year 3,780.25 3,780.25 3,780.25 3,780.25 15,121 5,195.51
Disposals during the year (-)
Others (+/-)
Depreciation (6,839) (6,825) (6,890) (7,025) (27,579) (7,943)
Gross Block in the end of the period 202,898 206,679 210,459 214,239 214,239 232,751
Depreciation rate 13.6% 13.3% 13.2% 13.2% 13.3% 13.2%

CWIP 21259
CWIP/Capex 58%
Capex 36,380
2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 FY2019 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 FY2020 FY21E

232,751 230,094 227,525 225,041 213,374 211,357 209,406 207,520 205,696 196,583
5,195.51 5,195.51 5,195.51 20,782 5,195.51 5,195.51 5,195.51 5,195.51 20,782 23692

(7,852) (7,765) (7,680) (32,449) (7,213) (7,146) (7,082) (7,020) (29,895) (29,076)
230,094 227,525 225,041 213,374 211,357 209,406 207,520 205,696 196,583 191,198
13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2%

29218 29218 33308

58% 58% 58%
50000 50000 57000
 FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY28E

191,198 189,403 191,127 196,365 205,177 217,688 234,091

27008 30789 35100 40014 45616 52002 59283

(28,803) (29,065) (29,862) (31,202) (33,105) (35,599) (38,725)

189,403 191,127 196,365 205,177 217,688 234,091 254,649
13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2%

37972 43288 49348 56257 64133 73111 83347

58% 58% 58% 58% 58% 58% 58%
64980 74077.2 84448.01 96270.73 109748.6 125113.4 142629.3
Company Name ROE (%) Payout ratio(%) Retention Ratio(%)
Asian Paints Ltd 26.46% 54.49% 45.51%
Axis Bank Ltd 0.40% 0.00% 100.00%
Bajaj Finance Ltd 15.60% 12.60% 87.40%
Bharti Airtel Ltd 2.34% 24.54% 75.46%
Coal India Ltd 12.38% 11.60% 88.40%
HCL Technologies Ltd 4.33% 20.00% 80.00%
HDFC Bank Ltd 16.50% 23.10% 76.90%
Hindustan Unilever Ltd 17.59% 18.73% 81.27%
Hindustan Zinc Ltd 26.81% 54.94% 45.06%
Housing Development Finance Corp 11.20% 47.70% 52.30%
ICICI Bank Ltd 6.60% 50.50% 49.50%
Indian Oil Corp Ltd -15.29% 0.00% 100.00%
IndusInd Bank Ltd 15.30% 14.70% 85.30%
Infosys Ltd 12.18% 32.48% 67.52%
ITC Ltd 31.68% 68.50% 31.50%
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd 12.30% 0.00% 100.00%
Larsen & Toubro Ltd 26.66% 35.09% 64.91%
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd 13.18% 1.66% 98.34%
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 17.64% 20.00% 80.00%
NTPC Ltd 15.79% 32.90% 67.10%
Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd 17.39% 38.85% 61.15%
Power Grid Corp of India Ltd 22.55% 25.28% 74.72%
Reliance Industries Ltd 6.20% 16.01% 83.99%
State Bank of India 1.10% 20.00% 80.00%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd 21.31% 20.72% 79.28%
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd 9.14% 41.09% 58.91%
Tata Motors Ltd 31.40% 99.35% 0.65%
UltraTech Cement Ltd 23.09% 21.22% 78.78%
Vedanta Ltd 13.45% 99.54% 0.46%
Wipro Ltd 17.67% 0.00% 100.00%

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.3443042
R Square 0.1185454
Adjusted R Square 0.0532524
Standard Error 150.29696
Observations 30

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 2 82025.4741673 41012.7370836395
Residual 27 609907.725679 22589.1750251544
Total 29 691933.199846

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept -44.18497 76.3234280933 -0.5789175876463
Growth rate(%) 202.51449 384.120185803 0.52721646327275
Equity Beta 99.043214 52.6385131921 1.88157316024436
Growth rate(%) Equity Beta Price (23 May 2018) EPS FY18 Actual P/E PredictedP/E
12.04% 1.2 1286.85 21.469979 59.93717994 99.04788799
0.40% 2 523.3 1.1 475.7272727 401.410971
13.63% 1.44 2149.3 44.4 48.40765766 269.2770763
1.77% 1.06 361.85 4.0753202 88.79057022 108.5661411
10.95% 0.93 279.05 21.513431 12.97096693 114.2758087
3.46% 0.14 904.9 6.7452576 134.1535131 20.8753848
12.69% 1.19 1989.9 67.4 29.52373887 143.5574747
14.30% 0.69 1574.3 21.352699 73.72838356 97.28950538
12.08% 1.42 288.45 39.578066 7.288127685 165.1041042
5.86% 1.18 1810 42 43.0952381 128.7334806
3.27% 1.92 290.3 10.5 27.64761905 196.7791184
-15.29% 0.85 160.5 -9.561581 -16.785927 53.22390806
13.05% 1.7 1903.95 60.1 31.6797005 194.8034262
8.22% 0.42 1193.85 21.648569 55.14683158 58.25100485
9.98% 0.66 278.75 58.33351 4.778556984 85.58007434
12.30% 1.13 1262.7 32.5 38.85230769 136.8281131
17.31% 1.74 1320.15 47.157931 27.99423071 207.3854307
12.96% 0.83 830.2 18.991409 43.71450259 108.4540581
14.11% 1.72 8560.65 11.722185 730.2947284 198.9389152
10.60% 0.82 165.15 45.593503 3.622226581 102.678753
10.63% 1.24 185.2 13.641375 13.57634443 144.3446975
16.85% 0.9 210.75 17.799729 11.840068 123.2606389
5.20% 0.98 926.75 18.739977 49.4531036 107.6028742
0.88% 1.87 253.9 2.7 94.03703704 186.9929369
16.89% 0.05 453 14.478681 31.2873797 39.15965529
5.38% 0.38 3508.9 33.705873 104.1035202 48.54060629
0.20% 1.61 307.7 134.91181 2.280749213 159.8735868
18.19% 1.52 3755.55 14.138837 265.6194366 187.3896412
0.06% 1.45 269.95 21.298308 12.67471558 143.738341
17.67% 0.35 264.95 18.86142 14.04719251 70.44532857

F Significance F
1.8155925144663 0.18205371
 P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
0.567443480335927 -200.78771 112.417764011519 -200.7877 112.417764
0.602348855464509 -585.63503 990.664005058599 -585.635 990.6640051
0.070716966084939 -8.9620941 207.048521327321 -8.962094 207.0485213
Undervalued or Overvalued % over/undervalued
Undervalued -39.49%
Overvalued 18.51%
Undervalued -82.02%
Undervalued -18.22%
Undervalued -88.65%
Overvalued 542.64%
Undervalued -79.43%
Undervalued -24.22%
Undervalued -95.59%
Undervalued -66.52%
Undervalued -85.95%
Undervalued -131.54%
Undervalued -83.74%
Undervalued -5.33%
Undervalued -94.42%
Undervalued -71.61%
Undervalued -86.50%
Undervalued -59.69%
Overvalued 267.09%
Undervalued -96.47%
Undervalued -90.59%
Undervalued -90.39%
Undervalued -54.04%
Undervalued -49.71%
Undervalued -20.10%
Overvalued 114.47%
Undervalued -98.57%
Overvalued 41.75%
Undervalued -91.18%
Undervalued -80.06%
Negative sign reflects undervalued
Company Name ROE (%) Payout ratio(%) Retention Ratio(%) Growth rate(%)
Asian Paints Ltd 26.46% 54.49% 45.51% 12.04%
Axis Bank Ltd 0.40% 0.00% 100.00% 0.40%
Bajaj Finance Ltd 15.60% 12.60% 87.40% 13.63%
Bharti Airtel Ltd 2.34% 24.54% 75.46% 1.77%
Coal India Ltd 12.38% 11.60% 88.40% 10.95%
HCL Technologies Ltd 4.33% 20.00% 80.00% 3.46%
HDFC Bank Ltd 16.50% 23.10% 76.90% 12.69%
Hindustan Unilever Ltd 17.59% 18.73% 81.27% 14.30%
Hindustan Zinc Ltd 26.81% 54.94% 45.06% 12.08%
Housing Development Finance Corp 11.20% 47.70% 52.30% 5.86%
ICICI Bank Ltd 6.60% 50.50% 49.50% 3.27%
Indian Oil Corp Ltd -15.29% 0.00% 100.00% -15.29%
IndusInd Bank Ltd 15.30% 14.70% 85.30% 13.05%
Infosys Ltd 12.18% 32.48% 67.52% 8.22%
ITC Ltd 31.68% 68.50% 31.50% 9.98%
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd 12.30% 0.00% 100.00% 12.30%
Larsen & Toubro Ltd 26.66% 35.09% 64.91% 17.31%
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd 13.18% 1.66% 98.34% 12.96%
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 17.64% 20.00% 80.00% 14.11%
NTPC Ltd 15.79% 32.90% 67.10% 10.60%
Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd 17.39% 38.85% 61.15% 10.63%
Power Grid Corp of India Ltd 22.55% 25.28% 74.72% 16.85%
Reliance Industries Ltd 6.20% 16.01% 83.99% 5.20%
State Bank of India 1.10% 20.00% 80.00% 0.88%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd 21.31% 20.72% 79.28% 16.89%
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd 9.14% 41.09% 58.91% 5.38%
Tata Motors Ltd 31.40% 99.35% 0.65% 0.20%
UltraTech Cement Ltd 23.09% 21.22% 78.78% 18.19%
Vedanta Ltd 13.45% 99.54% 0.46% 0.06%
Wipro Ltd 17.67% 0.00% 100.00% 17.67%
Equity Beta Price (23 May 2018) EPS FY18 Actual P/E
1.2 1286.85 21.469979091 59.93717994
2 523.3 1.1 475.7272727
1.44 2149.3 44.4 48.40765766
1.06 361.85 4.0753201505 88.79057022
0.93 279.05 21.513430843 12.97096693
0.14 904.9 6.7452575718 134.1535131
1.19 1989.9 67.4 29.52373887
0.69 1574.3 21.352699244 73.72838356
1.42 288.45 39.578066201 7.288127685
1.18 1810 42 43.0952381
1.92 290.3 10.5 27.64761905
0.85 160.5 -9.561580959 -16.785927
1.7 1903.95 60.1 31.6797005
0.42 1193.85 21.648569209 55.14683158
0.66 278.75 58.333509666 4.778556984
1.13 1262.7 32.5 38.85230769
1.74 1320.15 47.157930992 27.99423071
0.83 830.2 18.991409048 43.71450259
1.72 8560.65 11.722185122 730.2947284
0.82 165.15 45.593503424 3.622226581
1.24 185.2 13.641374597 13.57634443
0.9 210.75 17.799728855 11.840068
0.98 926.75 18.739976513 49.4531036
1.87 253.9 2.7 94.03703704
0.05 453 14.478681317 31.2873797
0.38 3508.9 33.705872696 104.1035202
1.61 307.7 134.91180803 2.280749213
1.52 3755.55 14.13883731 265.6194366
1.45 269.95 21.298308292 12.67471558
0.35 264.95 18.86142016 14.04719251
DCF valuation
Particulars FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Revenues 680,348 802,811 939,288 1,089,575
(MN INR) 437,918 499,706 575,381
% growth 14.1% 15.1% 18.2% 18.0% 17.00% 16.0%
Raw Material 313,145 350,080 386,974 467,316 549,750 657,502 762,702
% of Sales 72% 70% 67% 69% 68% 70% 70%
Employee 13,681 16,066 19,788 23,310 28,338 32,875 39,225
% of Sales 3.1% 3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6%
Other Exp 59,221 66,431 79,775 86,205 98,924 113,654 128,570
% of Sales 13.5% 13.3% 13.9% 12.7% 12.3% 12.1% 11.8%
EBITDA 51,871 67,129 88,844 103,517 125,799 135,258 159,078
EBITDA % 11.8% 13.4% 15.4% 15.2% 15.7% 14.4% 14.6%
Dep 20,844 24,703 28,202 26,021 27,579 32,449 29,895
Other 23,932 27,762
Income 7,317 8,316 14,610 23,001 20,455

Free cash flow calculation FY19E FY20E

EBIT 126,741 156,944
Less: tax 40,557 50,222
86,184 106,722
Add: Dep 32,449 29,895
118,633 136,617

Less: Capex 50,000 50,000

WC changes (13,648) (15,029)

FCFF 82,280 101,646

0 1
PV of FCFF 82,280 91,493

Please change fields in YELLOW

Cost of Capital
WACC 11.1% Debt 1108
Growth Cash 711

Terminal 6.5%
Growth rate
Cost of equity
Tax Rate 32% CAPM Rf+(Beta*(MR-RF)
NPV 3,106,690 Rf 7.7% 10 year T-bond rate
EV 3,106,690 Market return 11.2% Annual sensex return
Net debt 397 Beta 0.99
Marcap 3,106,293 Cost of equity 11.1%
No of shares
302 3.5%
Value per
share 10,286 WACC
 Details Weight Cost
Fair value
(Rs/share) 10,286 Equity 364,311 99% 11.1%
Debt 4,836 1% 12%
369,147
 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY28E
1,253,011 1,428,432 1,614,129 1,807,824 1,988,606 2,167,581 2,340,987 2,504,856

15.0% 14.0% 13.0% 12.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0%

877,108 999,903 1,129,890 1,265,477 1,392,024 1,517,307 1,638,691 1,753,400
70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70%
45,108 52,852 59,723 68,697 75,567 84,536 91,299 100,194
3.6% 3.7% 3.7% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 4.0%
144,096 159,984 175,940 191,629 204,826 216,758 227,076 235,457
11.5% 11.2% 10.9% 10.6% 10.3% 10.0% 9.7% 9.4%
186,699 215,693 248,576 282,021 316,188 348,981 383,922 415,806
14.9% 15.1% 15.4% 15.6% 15.9% 16.1% 16.4% 16.6%
29,076 28,803 29,065 29,862 31,202 33,105 35,599 38,725

31,926 36,395 41,127 46,062 50,668 55,228 59,647 63,822

FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY28E

189,548 223,285 260,637 298,221 335,655 371,104 407,969 440,903
60,655 71,451 83,404 95,431 107,409 118,753 130,550 141,089
128,893 151,834 177,233 202,790 228,245 252,351 277,419 299,814
29,076 28,803 29,065 29,862 31,202 33,105 35,599 38,725
157,969 180,637 206,299 232,652 259,447 285,455 313,018 338,539

57,500 65,550 74,072 82,960 91,256 99,469 107,427 114,947

(16,344) (17,542) (18,570) (19,370) (18,078) (17,897) (17,341) (16,387)

116,813 132,629 150,797 169,061 186,269 203,884 222,932 239,980

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
94,643 96,725 98,990 99,896 99,070 97,608 96,067 93,084

10,286 9% 9.50% 10% 10.50% 11%

4%
nsex return 4.50%
5%
5.50%

6%

6.50%
WACC 7%

11.10% 7.50%
8%
8.50%
9%
 32

Terminal value

25%

5,560,494
9
2,156,831

11.50% 12% 13.00%

Company Name Retention Ratio Payout ratio ROE
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone 93.1% 6.9% 17.4%
Ambuja Cements Ltd 61.2% 38.8% 6.0%
Asian Paints Ltd 45.5% 54.5% 26.5%
Avenue Supermarts Ltd 66.7% 33.3% 17.8%
Bajaj Auto Ltd 56.0% 44.0% 22.8%
Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd 50.8% 49.2% 22.7%
Bharti Airtel Ltd 75.5% 24.5% 2.3%
Bharti Infratel Ltd. 100.0% 0.0% 14.9%
Bosch Ltd 66.2% 33.8% 14.6%
Britannia Industries Ltd. 65.0% 35.0% 31.0%
Cipla Ltd/India 88.4% 11.6% 12.4%
Coal India Ltd 7.3% 92.7% 47.4%
Dabur India Ltd 3.5% 96.5% 24.0%
Eicher Motors Ltd 81.5% 18.5% 32.2%
Gail India Ltd 69.0% 31.0% 11.5%
Godrej Consumer Products Ltd 64.8% 35.2% 21.3%
Grasim Industries Ltd 85.2% 14.8% 6.7%
HCL Technologies Ltd 87.3% 12.7% 23.9%
Hero MotoCorp Ltd 48.7% 51.3% 31.4%
Hindalco Industries Ltd 92.6% 7.4% 8.4%
Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd 45.1% 54.9% 26.8%
Hindustan Unilever Ltd 18.6% 81.4% 76.6%
Hindustan Zinc Ltd 62.1% 37.9% 24.8%
Indian Oil Corp Ltd 39.8% 60.2% 17.8%
Infosys Ltd 56.2% 43.8% 24.8%
InterGlobe Aviation Ltd 31.5% 68.5% 31.7%
ITC Ltd 27.7% 72.3% 21.8%
JSW Steel Ltd 94.4% 5.6% 19.1%
Larsen & Toubro Ltd 70.8% 29.2% 12.4%
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd 73.6% 26.4% 16.4%
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 70.0% 30.0% 19.3%
Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd 78.4% 21.6% 18.0%
Nestle India Ltd 38.6% 61.4% 39.5%
NTPC Ltd 65.3% 34.7% 10.3%
Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd 44.5% 55.5% 9.4%
Pidilite Industries Ltd 74.7% 25.3% 22.5%
Piramal Enterprises Ltd 62.9% 37.1% 6.6%
Power Grid Corp of India Ltd 81.7% 18.3% 15.6%
Reliance Industries Ltd 90.4% 9.6% 12.3%
Shree Cement Ltd 87.1% 12.9% 16.3%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd 77.3% 22.7% 8.4%
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd 0.7% 99.3% 31.4%
Tata Motors Ltd 99.0% 1.0% 12.4%
Tata Steel Ltd 86.3% 13.7% 13.7%
Tech Mahindra Ltd 66.7% 33.3% 20.3%
Titan Co Ltd 50.0% 50.0% 21.2%
UltraTech Cement Ltd 82.2% 17.8% 9.3%
V-Guard Industries Ltd 0.5% 99.5% 13.4%
Wipro Ltd 100.0% 0.0% 17.7%
Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd 80.8% 19.2% 16.2%

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.767644481857
R Square 0.589278050525
Adjusted R Square 0.552769432794
Standard Error 5.914113594429
Observations 50

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 4 2258.20929 564.55232246
Residual 45 1573.95328 34.976739608
Total 49 3832.16257

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept -3.45606169113 4.5622758 -0.97671905
Growth rate -14.7961131004 28.9009974 -0.511958562
Beta 1.774956517917 2.16579001 0.8195422959
ROE 62.03077232992 13.232987 4.6875865741
Payout ratio -2.46794968199 6.7188109 -0.367319414
Growth rate Ln(growth rate) Beta ROE Payout ratiActual P/BV
16.23% -1.82 1.27 17.4% 6.9% 3.9
3.66% -3.31 1.3 6.0% 38.8% 2.2
12.04% -2.12 1.2 26.5% 54.5% 15.2
11.89% -2.13 1.41 17.8% 33.3% 21.1
12.77% -2.06 0.98 22.8% 44.0% 3.6
11.56% -2.16 1.59 22.7% 49.2% 2.4
1.77% -4.04 1.06 2.3% 24.5% 2.1
14.88% -1.90 0.78 14.9% 0.0% 3.1
9.63% -2.34 1.54 14.6% 33.8% 5.7
20.14% -1.60 0.62 31.0% 35.0% 22.9
10.95% -2.21 0.47 12.4% 11.6% 3.6
3.44% -3.37 0.93 47.4% 92.7% 8.5
0.84% -4.78 0.64 24.0% 96.5% 12.8
26.30% -1.34 0.6 32.2% 18.5% 10.6
7.94% -2.53 1.04 11.5% 31.0% 2.1
13.82% -1.98 0.83 21.3% 35.2% 13.5
5.68% -2.87 1.28 6.7% 14.8% 1.2
20.83% -1.57 0.14 23.9% 12.7% 3.5
15.30% -1.88 0.89 31.4% 51.3% 5.2
7.81% -2.55 1.51 8.4% 7.4% 1.0
12.08% -2.11 1.08 26.8% 54.9% 1.7
14.26% -1.95 0.69 76.6% 81.4% 52.2
15.41% -1.87 1.42 24.8% 37.9% 3.1
7.09% -2.65 0.85 17.8% 60.2% 1.4
13.93% -1.97 0.42 24.8% 43.8% 4.3
9.98% -2.30 0.65 31.7% 68.5% 5.3
6.03% -2.81 0.66 21.8% 72.3% 7.0
18.05% -1.71 0.67 19.1% 5.6% 2.7
8.79% -2.43 1.74 12.4% 29.2% 3.2
12.09% -2.11 0.83 16.4% 26.4% 3.1
13.51% -2.00 0.9 19.3% 30.0% 6.5
14.14% -1.96 1.23 18.0% 21.6% 6.5
15.23% -1.88 0.95 39.5% 61.4% 27.0
6.71% -2.70 0.82 10.3% 34.7% 1.2
4.19% -3.17 1.24 9.4% 55.5% 1.0
16.85% -1.78 0.5 22.5% 25.3% 14.7
4.13% -3.19 0.59 6.6% 37.1% 2.5
12.75% -2.06 0.9 15.6% 18.3% 1.7
11.11% -2.20 0.98 12.3% 9.6% 2.4
14.24% -1.95 1.52 16.3% 12.9% 6.6
6.52% -2.73 0.05 8.4% 22.7% 3.7
0.20% -6.19 0.38 31.4% 99.3% 8.1
12.23% -2.10 1.61 12.4% 1.0% 0.8
11.77% -2.14 1.18 13.7% 13.7% 1.1
13.57% -2.00 0.36 20.3% 33.3% 3.4
10.61% -2.24 1.35 21.2% 50.0% 15.7
7.61% -2.58 1.52 9.3% 17.8% 4.3
 0.06% -7.38 1.16 13.4% 99.5% 11.9
17.67% -1.73 0.35 17.7% 0.0% 2.5
13.08% -2.03 0.95 16.2% 19.2% 6.3

F Significance F
16.1407932468062 2.877E-08

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

0.333929972588626
0.611183485777493
0.416796702206034
2.58299637147559E-05
0.715102655778588
-13.64496 4.7328335 -13.64496 4.73283347
-73.00571 43.413484 -73.00571 43.4134838
-2.587168 6.1370815 -2.587168 6.13708152
35.378168 88.683376 35.378168 88.6833763
-16.00033 11.06443 -16.00033 11.0644301

s
PredictedP/BV BV per share Predicted Price
7.0395028399 101 709.65
1.0650970194 101 107.27
11.958873517 81 970.48
7.5312136629 70 529.78
9.4473522092 649 6,128.73
10.549380254 159 1,681.76
-0.98850973 174 -171.95
4.958003046 92 454.47
6.0434773898 3,155 19,069.14
13.027382978 272 3,537.93
3.1525773293 174 547.79
24.822647972 38 930.91
10.054606429 32 325.72
13.264890748 2,521 33,444.37
3.5850034298 182 653.64
8.342198438 100 831.67
1.7456605321 507 885.25
8.1940441061 264 2,166.85
14.081963217 589 8,298.42
3.1206935271 223 694.91
11.945938701 148 1,763.75
41.165004926 31 1,287.67
11.241213887 85 955.95
6.5731369331 113 744.92
9.5320246239 297 2,833.40
14.183915675 184 2,611.45
8.5599657987 41 349.89
6.7842769124 113 763.39
5.3116167957 391 2,075.38
5.7620661945 231 1,331.56
7.3720583059 1,382 10,190.59
7.2852226292 45 326.72
18.943268035 355 6,720.60
2.5234983946 126 318.97
2.5994706724 178 463.34
8.3023980174 79 655.35
0.1397105575 1,158 161.82
5.4859036345 109 595.46
4.0272570833 463 1,865.99
6.9522942969 2,378 16,534.74
0.3368468806 157 52.81
14.21226498 430 6,106.91
5.2317466815 243 1,271.30
5.0248263291 426 2,142.23
6.9629352842 178 1,236.14
9.2943767966 59 549.17
3.4171122298 911 3,111.75
 4.477350717 158 709.25
5.5105797253 107 588.28
5.8666593878 80 470.43

pper 95.0%
Company Name Retention Ratio Payout ratio ROE Growth rate
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone 93.1% 6.9% 17.4% 16.23%
Ambuja Cements Ltd 61.2% 38.8% 6.0% 3.66%
Asian Paints Ltd 45.5% 54.5% 26.5% 12.04%
Avenue Supermarts Ltd 66.7% 33.3% 17.8% 11.89%
Bajaj Auto Ltd 56.0% 44.0% 22.8% 12.77%
Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd 50.8% 49.2% 22.7% 11.56%
Bharti Airtel Ltd 75.5% 24.5% 2.3% 1.77%
Bharti Infratel Ltd. 100.0% 0.0% 14.9% 14.88%
Bosch Ltd 66.2% 33.8% 14.6% 9.63%
Britannia Industries Ltd. 65.0% 35.0% 31.0% 20.14%
Cipla Ltd/India 88.4% 11.6% 12.4% 10.95%
Coal India Ltd 7.3% 92.7% 47.4% 3.44%
Dabur India Ltd 3.5% 96.5% 24.0% 0.84%
Eicher Motors Ltd 81.5% 18.5% 32.2% 26.30%
Gail India Ltd 69.0% 31.0% 11.5% 7.94%
Godrej Consumer Products Ltd 64.8% 35.2% 21.3% 13.82%
Grasim Industries Ltd 85.2% 14.8% 6.7% 5.68%
HCL Technologies Ltd 87.3% 12.7% 23.9% 20.83%
Hero MotoCorp Ltd 48.7% 51.3% 31.4% 15.30%
Hindalco Industries Ltd 92.6% 7.4% 8.4% 7.81%
Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd 45.1% 54.9% 26.8% 12.08%
Hindustan Unilever Ltd 18.6% 81.4% 76.6% 14.26%
Hindustan Zinc Ltd 62.1% 37.9% 24.8% 15.41%
Indian Oil Corp Ltd 39.8% 60.2% 17.8% 7.09%
Infosys Ltd 56.2% 43.8% 24.8% 13.93%
InterGlobe Aviation Ltd 31.5% 68.5% 31.7% 9.98%
ITC Ltd 27.7% 72.3% 21.8% 6.03%
JSW Steel Ltd 94.4% 5.6% 19.1% 18.05%
Larsen & Toubro Ltd 70.8% 29.2% 12.4% 8.79%
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd 73.6% 26.4% 16.4% 12.09%
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 70.0% 30.0% 19.3% 13.51%
Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd 78.4% 21.6% 18.0% 14.14%
Nestle India Ltd 38.6% 61.4% 39.5% 15.23%
NTPC Ltd 65.3% 34.7% 10.3% 6.71%
Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd 44.5% 55.5% 9.4% 4.19%
Pidilite Industries Ltd 74.7% 25.3% 22.5% 16.85%
Piramal Enterprises Ltd 62.9% 37.1% 6.6% 4.13%
Power Grid Corp of India Ltd 81.7% 18.3% 15.6% 12.75%
Reliance Industries Ltd 90.4% 9.6% 12.3% 11.11%
Shree Cement Ltd 87.1% 12.9% 16.3% 14.24%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd 77.3% 22.7% 8.4% 6.52%
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd 0.7% 99.3% 31.4% 0.20%
Tata Motors Ltd 99.0% 1.0% 12.4% 12.23%
Tata Steel Ltd 86.3% 13.7% 13.7% 11.77%
Tech Mahindra Ltd 66.7% 33.3% 20.3% 13.57%
Titan Co Ltd 50.0% 50.0% 21.2% 10.61%
UltraTech Cement Ltd 82.2% 17.8% 9.3% 7.61%
V-Guard Industries Ltd 0.5% 99.5% 13.4% 0.06%
Wipro Ltd 100.0% 0.0% 17.7% 17.67%
Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd 80.8% 19.2% 16.2% 13.08%

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.156728374212
R Square 0.024563783283
Adjusted R Square -0.03905162215
Standard Error 36.5340340633
Observations 50

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 3 1546.142333 515.38078 0.386129478
Residual 46 61397.83967 1334.7356
Total 49 62943.982

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 12.90811197353 25.99407544 0.496579 0.621850816
Growth rate 34.91135976992 113.8355292 0.3066825 0.760469051
Beta 10.24597220111 13.37080991 0.7662941 0.447416067
Payout ratio 20.21652109788 23.55638168 0.8582184 0.395221709

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.168753393817
R Square 0.028477707925
Adjusted R Square -0.03488244156
Standard Error 36.4606642314
Observations 50

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 3 1792.500335 597.50011 0.449457714
Residual 46 61151.48166 1329.38
Total 49 62943.982

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 14.82555178945 17.84628688 0.8307359 0.410414009
Ln(Growth rate) -3.21734714645 6.082919867 -0.528915 0.599407533
Beta 8.551804509868 12.89616081 0.6631279 0.510558177
Payout ratio 8.053576725383 25.2732682 0.3186599 0.751426861
Ln(Growth rate) Beta Payout ratio Actual P/E Predicted PE EPS Predicted Price
-1.82 1.27 6.9% 22.50 32.97868379 18 579.53
-3.31 1.3 38.8% 28.70 35.35655482 6 213.20
-2.12 1.2 54.5% 62.70 40.42323866 21 867.89
-2.13 1.41 33.3% 119.90 38.24730993 13 480.01
-2.06 0.98 44.0% 17.50 36.29556086 148 5,366.86
-2.16 1.59 49.2% 9.70 43.17600956 36 1,565.35
-4.04 1.06 24.5% 179.80 29.34679897 4 119.60
-1.90 0.78 0.0% 21.70 26.09557986 14 355.99
-2.34 1.54 33.8% 41.40 38.8881125 459 17,853.72
-1.60 0.62 35.0% 77.30 33.37190616 84 2,809.23
-2.21 0.47 11.6% 36.40 23.88945622 22 513.94
-3.37 0.93 92.7% 24.20 42.38826673 18 754.10
-4.78 0.64 96.5% 53.30 39.26772959 8 305.16
-1.34 0.6 18.5% 37.60 31.96602702 813 25,988.24
-2.53 1.04 31.0% 17.70 32.60106596 21 683.64
-1.98 0.83 35.2% 49.70 33.36298517 21 709.92
-2.87 1.28 14.8% 25.00 30.99611461 34 1,047.88
-1.57 0.14 12.7% 15.00 24.17789212 63 1,525.09
-1.88 0.89 51.3% 17.70 37.74075204 185 6,987.14
-2.55 1.51 7.4% 7.70 32.61278798 19 613.04
-2.11 1.08 54.9% 6.20 39.29741317 40 1,555.32
-1.95 0.69 81.4% 72.60 41.40907728 24 992.18
-1.87 1.42 37.9% 12.91 40.50042248 21 854.61
-2.65 0.85 60.2% 7.40 36.26682293 20 732.53
-1.97 0.42 43.8% 18.30 30.93677154 74 2,280.90
-2.30 0.65 68.5% 25.63 36.90056348 58 2,152.54
-2.81 0.66 72.3% 31.83 36.39976157 9 324.34
-1.71 0.67 5.6% 12.30 27.20308563 22 585.24
-2.43 1.74 29.2% 23.40 39.70578031 49 1,925.84
-2.11 0.83 26.4% 15.08 30.96178746 38 1,174.72
-2.00 0.9 30.0% 35.10 32.90898326 267 8,778.08
-1.96 1.23 21.6% 40.11 34.80849045 8 281.41
-1.88 0.95 61.4% 77.24 40.37438056 140 5,653.25
-2.70 0.82 34.7% 12.15 30.65939208 13 398.12
-3.17 1.24 55.5% 9.64 38.29790559 17 643.21
-1.78 0.5 25.3% 57.39 29.02432314 18 516.63
-3.19 0.59 37.1% -82.07 27.9022573 76 2,123.68
-2.06 0.9 18.3% 12.19 30.28092624 17 513.08
-2.20 0.98 9.6% 20.33 28.77411134 57 1,638.87
-1.95 1.52 12.9% 49.61 36.0531589 389 14,008.66
-2.73 0.05 22.7% 64.32 20.28495074 13 268.03
-6.19 0.38 99.3% 27.44 36.95783869 135 4,986.05
-2.10 1.61 1.0% 19.30 33.87807439 30 1,017.23
-2.14 1.18 13.7% 4.97 31.88799822 58 1,855.84
 -2.00 0.36 33.3% 16.82 28.05589734 36 1,012.37
-2.24 1.35 50.0% 70.29 40.55088557 13 508.22
-2.58 1.52 17.8% 58.62 34.7361603 84 2,927.06
-7.38 1.16 99.5% 62.71 44.93831195 21 957.11
-1.73 0.35 0.0% 15.69 22.66233171 19 427.44
-2.03 0.95 19.2% 33.90 31.09930382 13 403.90

Significance F
0.76

Lower 95%Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

-39 65.23147202 -39.4152481 65.23147202
-194 264.0503954 -194.227676 264.0503954
-17 37.16001662 -16.6680722 37.16001662
-27 67.6330581 -27.2000159 67.6330581

Significance F
0.718884653364

Lower 95% Upper 95%

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
-21.0971605246 50.7 -21.0971605 50.7482641
-15.4616297749 9.03 -15.4616298 9.02693548
-17.4068208198 34.5 -17.4068208 34.5104298
-42.8188736025 58.9 -42.8188736 58.9260271
Method Weightage Value Weighted Value
DCF 0.8 10,286 8228.591
P/E 0.05 8,778.08 438.9039
P/B 0.15 10,190.59 1528.589 Current Pri
Target Price 10,196.08 Fair Price 10.97% upside
CMP 9188.35
%age of Under Valuation 10.97%
Recommendation Buy

Current Price
 9188.35
10.97% upside
10,196.08

urrent Price Fair Price