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Measuring Investment Returns: Stern School of Business
Measuring Investment Returns: Stern School of Business
Aswath Damodaran
Aswath Damodaran 1
First Principles
Aswath Damodaran 2
Measuring Returns Right: The Basic Principles
n Use cash flows rather than earnings. You cannot spend earnings.
n Use “incremental” cash flows relating to the investment decision, i.e.,
cashflows that occur as a consequence of the decision, rather than total
cash flows.
n Use “time weighted” returns, i.e., value cash flows that occur earlier
more than cash flows that occur later.
The Return Mantra: “Time-weighted, Incremental Cash Flow
Return”
Aswath Damodaran 3
Steps in Investment Analysis
n Estimate a hurdle rate for the project, based upon the riskiness of the
investment
n Estimate revenues and accounting earnings on the investment.
• Measure the accounting return to see if the investment measures up to the
hurdle rate.
n Convert accounting earnings into cash flows
• Use the cash flows to evaluate whether the investment is a good
investment.
n Time weight the cash flows
• Use the time-weighted cash flows to evaluate whether the investment is a
good investment.
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I. Estimating the Hurdle Rate for an Investment
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Analyzing Project Risk: Three Examples
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II. The Estimation Process
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The Home Depot’s New Store: Experience and
History
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The Margins at Existing Store
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
88-88.5% 88.5%-89% 89%-89.5% 89.5%-90% 90%-90.5% 90.5%-91% 91%-91.5% 91.5%-92%
Operating Exp as % of Revenues
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Projections for The Home Depot’s New Store
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Scenario Analysis: Boeing Super Jumbo
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Scenario Analysis
n The following table lists the number of planes that Boeing will sell
under each scenario, with the probabilities listed below each number.
Airbus New Airbus A-300 Airbus abandons
large plane large airplane
High Growth in Asia 120 150 200
(0.125) (0.125) (0.00)
Average Growth in Asia 100 135 160
(0.15) (0.25) (0.10)
Low Growth in Asia 75 110 120
(0.05) (0.10) (0.10)
Expected Value = 120*0.125+150*.125+200*0+100*.15+135*.25
+160*.10+ 75*.05+110*.10+120*10 = 125 planes
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III. Measures of return: Accounting Earnings
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From Forecasts to Accounting Earnings
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Operating Assumptions
• The sale and delivery of the planes is expected to begin in the fifth year,
when 50 planes will be sold. For the next 15 years (from year 6-20),
Boeing expects to sell 125 planes a year. In the last five years of the
project (from year 21-25), the sales are expected to decline to 100 planes a
year. While the planes delivered in year 5 will be priced at $ 200 million
each, this price is expected to grow at the same rate as inflation (which is
assumed to be 3%) each year after that.
• Based upon past experience, Boeing anticipates that its cost of production,
not including depreciation or General, Sales and Administrative (GS&A)
expenses, will be 90% of the revenue each year.
• Boeing allocates general, selling and administrative expenses (G,S & A)
to projects based upon projected revenues, and this project will be
assessed a charge equal to 4% of revenues. (One-third of these expenses
will be a direct result of this project and can be treated as variable. The
remaining two-thirds are fixed expenses that would be generated even if
this project were not accepted.)
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Other Assumptions
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Revenues: By Year
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Operating Expenses & S,G & A: By Year
Year Revenues COGS GS&A Expense
5 $ 10,000 $ 9,000 $ 400
6 $ 25,750 $ 23,175 $ 1,030
7 $ 26,523 $ 23,870 $ 1,061
8 $ 27,318 $ 24,586 $ 1,093
9 $ 28,138 $ 25,324 $ 1,126
10 $ 28,982 $ 26,084 $ 1,159
11 $ 29,851 $ 26,866 $ 1,194
12 $ 30,747 $ 27,672 $ 1,230
13 $ 31,669 $ 28,502 $ 1,267
14 $ 32,619 $ 29,357 $ 1,305
15 $ 33,598 $ 30,238 $ 1,344
16 $ 34,606 $ 31,145 $ 1,384
17 $ 35,644 $ 32,080 $ 1,426
18 $ 36,713 $ 33,042 $ 1,469
19 $ 37,815 $ 34,033 $ 1,513
20 $ 38,949 $ 35,054 $ 1,558
21 $ 32,094 $ 28,885 $ 1,284
22 $ 33,057 $ 29,751 $ 1,322
23 $ 34,049 $ 30,644 $ 1,362
24 $ 35,070 $ 31,563 $ 1,403
25 $ 36,122 $ 32,510 $ 1,445
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Depreciation and Amortization: By Year
Year Capital Depreciaton Book Value R&D Amortization Ending Value Deprecn &
Expenditures Investment of R&D Amortization
0 $ 500 $ 500 2500 0 2500
1 $ 1,000 $ 50 $ 1,450 $ 2,500 $ 167 $ 2,333 $217
2 $ 1,500 $ 145 $ 2,805 $ 2,333 $ 167 $ 2,167 $312
3 $ 1,500 $ 281 $ 4,025 $ 2,167 $ 167 $ 2,000 $447
4 $ 1,000 $ 402 $ 4,622 $ 2,000 $ 167 $ 1,833 $569
5 $ 250 $ 462 $ 4,410 $ 1,833 $ 167 $ 1,667 $629
6 $ 250 $ 441 $ 4,219 $ 1,667 $ 167 $ 1,500 $608
7 $ 250 $ 422 $ 4,047 $ 1,500 $ 167 $ 1,333 $589
8 $ 250 $ 405 $ 3,892 $ 1,333 $ 167 $ 1,167 $571
9 $ 250 $ 389 $ 3,753 $ 1,167 $ 167 $ 1,000 $556
10 $ 250 $ 375 $ 3,628 $ 1,000 $ 167 $ 833 $542
11 $ 250 $ 363 $ 3,515 $ 833 $ 167 $ 667 $529
12 $ 250 $ 351 $ 3,413 $ 667 $ 167 $ 500 $518
13 $ 250 $ 341 $ 3,322 $ 500 $ 167 $ 333 $508
14 $ 250 $ 332 $ 3,240 $ 333 $ 167 $ 167 $499
15 $ 250 $ 324 $ 3,166 $ 167 $ 167 $ - $491
16 $ - $ 317 $ 2,849 $317
17 $ - $ 285 $ 2,564 $285
18 $ - $ 256 $ 2,308 $256
19 $ - $ 231 $ 2,077 $231
20 $ - $ 208 $ 1,869 $208
21 $ - $ 187 $ 1,683 $187
22 $ - $ 168 $ 1,514 $168
23 $ - $ 151 $ 1,363 $151
24 $ - $ 136 $ 1,227 $136
25 $ - $ 123 $ 1,104 $123
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Earnings on Project
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And the Accounting View of Return
Year EBIT(1-t) Beginning BV Capital Exp Depreciation Ending BV Average BV Working Capital Return on Capital
1 ($140.83) $3,000.00 $1,000.00 $216.67 $3,783.33 $3,391.67 $0.00 -4.15%
2 ($202.58) $3,783.33 $1,500.00 $311.67 $4,971.67 $4,377.50 $0.00 -4.63%
3 ($290.66) $4,971.67 $1,500.00 $447.17 $6,024.50 $5,498.08 $0.00 -5.29%
4 ($369.93) $6,024.50 $1,000.00 $569.12 $6,455.38 $6,239.94 $0.00 -5.93%
5 ($18.77) $6,455.38 $250.00 $628.87 $6,076.51 $6,265.95 $1,000.00 -0.26%
6 $609.28 $6,076.51 $250.00 $607.65 $5,718.86 $5,897.69 $2,575.00 7.19%
7 $651.82 $5,718.86 $250.00 $588.55 $5,380.31 $5,549.58 $2,652.25 7.95%
8 $694.02 $5,380.31 $250.00 $571.36 $5,058.94 $5,219.63 $2,731.82 8.73%
9 $736.04 $5,058.94 $250.00 $555.89 $4,753.05 $4,906.00 $2,813.77 9.53%
10 $778.01 $4,753.05 $250.00 $541.97 $4,461.08 $4,607.06 $2,898.19 10.37%
11 $820.06 $4,461.08 $250.00 $529.44 $4,181.64 $4,321.36 $2,985.13 11.22%
12 $862.32 $4,181.64 $250.00 $518.16 $3,913.47 $4,047.55 $3,074.68 12.11%
13 $904.89 $3,913.47 $250.00 $508.01 $3,655.46 $3,784.47 $3,166.93 13.02%
14 $947.88 $3,655.46 $250.00 $498.88 $3,406.58 $3,531.02 $3,261.93 13.95%
15 $991.39 $3,406.58 $250.00 $490.66 $3,165.92 $3,286.25 $3,359.79 14.92%
16 $1,143.84 $3,165.92 $0.00 $316.59 $2,849.33 $3,007.63 $3,460.58 17.68%
17 $1,204.91 $2,849.33 $0.00 $284.93 $2,564.40 $2,706.86 $3,564.40 19.21%
18 $1,265.13 $2,564.40 $0.00 $256.44 $2,307.96 $2,436.18 $3,671.33 20.71%
19 $1,324.76 $2,307.96 $0.00 $230.80 $2,077.16 $2,192.56 $3,781.47 22.18%
20 $1,384.00 $2,077.16 $0.00 $207.72 $1,869.45 $1,973.30 $3,894.92 23.58%
21 $1,130.16 $1,869.45 $0.00 $186.94 $1,682.50 $1,775.97 $3,209.41 22.67%
22 $1,179.86 $1,682.50 $0.00 $168.25 $1,514.25 $1,598.38 $3,305.70 24.06%
23 $1,229.47 $1,514.25 $0.00 $151.43 $1,362.83 $1,438.54 $3,404.87 25.38%
24 $1,279.15 $1,362.83 $0.00 $136.28 $1,226.54 $1,294.68 $3,507.01 26.64%
25 $1,329.04 $1,226.54 $0.00 $122.65 $1,103.89 $1,165.22 $3,612.22 27.82%
Average $777.73 $3,620.52 $2,637.26 12.75%
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Would lead use to conclude that...
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From Project to Firm Return on Capital
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6 Application Test: Assessing Investment
Quality
n For the most recent period for which you have data, compute the after-
tax return on capital earned by your firm, where after-tax return on
capital is computed to be
After-tax ROC = EBIT (1-tax rate)/ (BV of debt + BV of Equity)previous year
n For the most recent period for which you have data, compute the
return spread earned by your firm:
Return Spread = After-tax ROC - Cost of Capital
n For the most recent period, compute the EVA earned by your firm
EVA = Return Spread * (BV of Debt +BV of Equity)
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IV. From Earnings to Cash Flows
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Estimating Cash Flows: The Boeing Super
Jumbo
Year EBIT(1-t) Depreciation Cap Ex Change in WC Salvage Value FCFF
0 $ 3,000 $ (3,000)
1 $ (141) $ 217 $ 1,000 $ - $ (924)
2 $ (203) $ 312 $ 1,500 $ - $ (1,391)
3 $ (291) $ 447 $ 1,500 $ - $ (1,343)
4 $ (370) $ 569 $ 1,000 $ 1,000 $ (1,801)
5 $ (19) $ 629 $ 250 $ 1,575 $ (1,215)
6 $ 609 $ 608 $ 250 $ 77 $ 890
7 $ 652 $ 589 $ 250 $ 80 $ 911
8 $ 694 $ 571 $ 250 $ 82 $ 933
9 $ 736 $ 556 $ 250 $ 84 $ 958
10 $ 778 $ 542 $ 250 $ 87 $ 983
11 $ 820 $ 529 $ 250 $ 90 $ 1,010
12 $ 862 $ 518 $ 250 $ 92 $ 1,038
13 $ 905 $ 508 $ 250 $ 95 $ 1,068
14 $ 948 $ 499 $ 250 $ 98 $ 1,099
15 $ 991 $ 491 $ 250 $ 101 $ 1,131
16 $ 1,144 $ 317 $ - $ 104 $ 1,357
17 $ 1,205 $ 285 $ - $ 107 $ 1,383
18 $ 1,265 $ 256 $ - $ 110 $ 1,411
19 $ 1,325 $ 231 $ - $ 113 $ 1,442
20 $ 1,384 $ 208 $ - $ (686) $ 2,277
21 $ 1,130 $ 187 $ - $ 96 $ 1,221
22 $ 1,180 $ 168 $ - $ 99 $ 1,249
23 $ 1,229 $ 151 $ - $ 102 $ 1,279
24 $ 1,279 $ 136 $ - $ 105 $ 1,310
25 $ 1,329 $ 123 $ - $ - $ 4,716 $ 6,168
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The Depreciation Tax Benefit
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Depreciation Methods
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The Capital Expenditures Effect
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To cap ex or not to cap ex
n Assume that you run your own software business, and that you have an
expense this year of $ 100 million from producing and distribution
promotional CDs in software magazines. Your accountant tells you
that you can expense this item or capitalize and depreciate. Which will
have a more positive effect on income?
o Expense it
o Capitalize and Depreciate it
Which will have a more positive effect on cash flows?
o Expense it
o Capitalize and Depreciate it
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The Working Capital Effect
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V. From Cash Flows to Incremental Cash
Flows
n The incremental cash flows of a project are the difference between the
cash flows that the firm would have had, if it accepts the investment,
and the cash flows that the firm would have had, if it does not accept
the investment.
n The Key Questions to determine whether a cash flow is incremental:
• What will happen to this cash flow item if I accept the investment?
• What will happen to this cash flow item if I do not accept the investment?
n If the cash flow will occur whether you take this investment or reject
it, it is not an incremental cash flow.
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Sunk Costs
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Allocated Costs
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Boeing: Super Jumbo Jet
n The $2.5 billion already expended on the jet is a sunk cost, as is the
amortization related that expense. (Boeing has spent the first, and it is
entitled to the latter even if the investment is rejected)
n Two-thirds of the S,G&A expenses are fixed expenses and would exist
even if this project is not accepted.
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The Incremental Cash Flows: Boeing Super
Jumbo
Year EBIT(1-t) Depreciation Cap Ex Change in WC Salvage Value FCFF Sunk Cost Fixed GS&A(1-t) Incremental FCFF
0 $0 $0 $3,000 $0 $0 ($3,000) ($2,500) ($500)
1 ($33) $50 $1,000 $0 $0 ($983) $0 $0 ($983)
2 ($94) $145 $1,500 $0 $0 ($1,449) $0 $0 ($1,449)
3 ($182) $281 $1,500 $0 $0 ($1,402) $0 $0 ($1,402)
4 ($262) $402 $1,000 $1,000 $0 ($1,859) $0 $0 ($1,859)
5 $90 $462 $250 $1,575 $0 ($1,273) $0 $173 ($1,100)
6 $718 $441 $250 $77 $0 $831 $0 $446 $1,278
7 $760 $422 $250 $80 $0 $852 $0 $460 $1,312
8 $802 $405 $250 $82 $0 $875 $0 $474 $1,349
9 $844 $389 $250 $84 $0 $899 $0 $488 $1,387
10 $886 $375 $250 $87 $0 $925 $0 $502 $1,427
11 $928 $363 $250 $90 $0 $952 $0 $517 $1,469
12 $971 $351 $250 $92 $0 $980 $0 $533 $1,513
13 $1,013 $341 $250 $95 $0 $1,010 $0 $549 $1,558
14 $1,056 $332 $250 $98 $0 $1,041 $0 $565 $1,606
15 $1,100 $324 $250 $101 $0 $1,073 $0 $582 $1,655
16 $1,144 $317 $0 $104 $0 $1,357 $0 $600 $1,956
17 $1,205 $285 $0 $107 $0 $1,383 $0 $618 $2,001
18 $1,265 $256 $0 $110 $0 $1,411 $0 $636 $2,048
19 $1,325 $231 $0 $113 $0 $1,442 $0 $655 $2,098
20 $1,384 $208 $0 ($686) $0 $2,277 $0 $675 $2,952
21 $1,130 $187 $0 $96 $0 $1,221 $0 $556 $1,777
22 $1,180 $168 $0 $99 $0 $1,249 $0 $573 $1,822
23 $1,229 $151 $0 $102 $0 $1,279 $0 $590 $1,869
24 $1,279 $136 $0 $105 $0 $1,310 $0 $608 $1,918
25 $1,329 $123 $0 $0 $4,716 $6,168 $0 $626 $6,794
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VI. To Time-Weighted Cash Flows
n Incremental cash flows in the earlier years are worth more than
incremental cash flows in later years.
n In fact, cash flows across time cannot be added up. They have to be
brought to the same point in time before aggregation.
n This process of moving cash flows through time is
• discounting, when future cash flows are brought to the present
• compounding, when present cash flows are taken to the future
n The discount rate is the mechanism that determines how cash flows
across time will be weighted.
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Present Value Mechanics
(1 + g)n
3. Growing Annuity
1 -
(1 + r)
n
A ( 1 +g)
r -g
4. Perpetuity A/r
5. Growing Perpetuity A(1+g)/(r-g)
Aswath Damodaran 39
Discounted cash flow measures of return
n Net Present Value (NPV): The net present value is the sum of the
present values of all cash flows from the project (including initial
investment).
NPV = Sum of the present values of all cash flows on the project, including
the initial investment, with the cash flows being discounted at the
appropriate hurdle rate (cost of capital, if cash flow is cash flow to the
firm, and cost of equity, if cash flow is to equity investors)
• Decision Rule: Accept if NPV > 0
n Internal Rate of Return (IRR): The internal rate of return is the
discount rate that sets the net present value equal to zero. It is the
percentage rate of return, based upon incremental time-weighted cash
flows.
• Decision Rule: Accept if IRR > hurdle rate
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Closure on Cash Flows
n In a project with a finite and short life, you would need to compute a
salvage value, which is the expected proceeds from selling all of the
investment in the project at the end of the project life. It is usually set
equal to book value of fixed assets and working capital
n In a project with an infinite or very long life, we compute cash flows
for a reasonable period, and then compute a terminal value for this
project, which is the present value of all cash flows that occur after the
estimation period ends..
Aswath Damodaran 41
Salvage Value on Boeing Super Jumbo
n We will assume that the salvage value for this investment at the end of
year 25 will be the book value of the investment.
Book value of capital investments at end of year 25 = $1,104 million
Book value of working capital investments: yr 25 = $3,612 million
Salvage Value at end of year 25 = $4,716 million
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Considering all of the Cashflows… The NPV
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Which makes the argument that..
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The IRR of this project
$35,000.00
$30,000.00
$25,000.00
$20,000.00
$15,000.00 NPV
$10,000.00
Internal Rate of Return
$5,000.00
$0.00
($5,000.00)
Discount Rate
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The IRR suggests..
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Case 1: IRR versus NPV
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Project’s NPV Profile
$60.00
$40.00
$20.00
$0.00
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
38%
40%
42%
44%
46%
48%
50%
NPV
($20.00)
($40.00)
($60.00)
($80.00)
($100.00)
Discount Rate
Aswath Damodaran 48
What do we do now?
n This project has two internal rates of return. The first is 6.60%,
whereas the second is 36.55%.
n Why are there two internal rates of return on this project?
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Case 2: NPV versus IRR
Project A
Investment $ 1,000,000
NPV = $467,937
IRR= 33.66%
Project B
Investment $ 10,000,000
NPV = $1,358,664
IRR=20.88%
Aswath Damodaran 50
Which one would you pick?
n Assume that you can pick only one of these two projects. Your choice
will clearly vary depending upon whether you look at NPV or IRR.
You have enough money currently on hand to take either. Which one
would you pick?
o Project A. It gives me the bigger bang for the buck and more margin
for error.
o Project B. It creates more dollar value in my business.
If you pick A, what would your biggest concern be?
Aswath Damodaran 51
Capital Rationing, Uncertainty and Choosing a
Rule
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An Alternative to IRR with Capital Rationing
n The problem with the NPV rule, when there is capital rationing, is that
it is a dollar value. It measures success in absolute terms.
n The NPV can be converted into a relative measure by dividing by the
initial investment. This is called the profitability index.
• Profitability Index (PI) = NPV/Initial Investment
n In the example described, the PI of the two projects would have been:
• PI of Project A = $467,937/1,000,000 = 46.79%
• PI of Project B = $1,358,664/10,000,000 = 13.59%
Project A would have scored higher.
Aswath Damodaran 53
Case 3: NPV versus IRR
Project A
Investment $ 10,000,000
NPV = $1,191,712
IRR=21.41%
Project B
Investment $ 10,000,000
NPV = $1,358,664
IRR=20.88%
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Why the difference?
These projects are of the same scale. Both the NPV and IRR use time-
weighted cash flows. Yet, the rankings are different. Why?
Aswath Damodaran 55
NPV, IRR and the Reinvestment Rate
Assumption
n The NPV rule assumes that intermediate cash flows on the project get
reinvested at the hurdle rate (which is based upon what projects of
comparable risk should earn).
n The IRR rule assumes that intermediate cash flows on the project get
reinvested at the IRR. Implicit is the assumption that the firm has an
infinite stream of projects yielding similar IRRs.
n Conclusion: When the IRR is high (the project is creating significant
surplus value) and the project life is long, the IRR will overstate the
true return on the project.
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Solution to Reinvestment Rate Problem
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Why NPV and IRR may differ..
n A project can have only one NPV, whereas it can have more than one
IRR.
n The NPV is a dollar surplus value, whereas the IRR is a percentage
measure of return. The NPV is therefore likely to be larger for “large
scale” projects, while the IRR is higher for “small-scale” projects.
n The NPV assumes that intermediate cash flows get reinvested at the
“hurdle rate”, which is based upon what you can make on investments
of comparable risk, while the IRR assumes that intermediate cash
flows get reinvested at the “IRR”.
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Case: NPV and Project Life
Project A
-$1000
NPV of Project A = $ 442
Project B
$350 $350 $350 $350 $350 $350 $350 $350 $350 $350
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Choosing Between Mutually Exclusive Projects
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Solution 1: Project Replication
Project A: Replicated
$400 $400 $400 $400 $400 $400 $400 $400 $400 $400
Project B
$350 $350 $350 $350 $350 $350 $350 $350 $350 $350
-$1500
NPV of Project B= $ 478
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Solution 2: Equivalent Annuities
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What would you choose as your investment
tool?
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What firms actually use ..
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Boeing 747: What about exchange rate risk?
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Should there be a risk premium for projects
with substantial foreign exposure?
n The exchange rate risk may be diversifiable risk (and hence should not
command a premium) if
• the company has projects is a large number of countries (or)
• the investors in the company are globally diversified.
For Boeing, it can be argued that this risk is diversifiable.
n The same diversification argument can also be applied against political
risk, which would mean that it too should not affect the discount rate.
It may, however, affect the cash flows, by reducing the expected life or
cash flows on the project.
For Boeing, this risk too is assumed to not affect the cost of capital. Any
expenses associated with protecting against political risk (say,
insurance costs) can be built into the cash flows.
Aswath Damodaran 66
Equity Analysis: The Parallels
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A New Store for the Home Depot
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Interest and Principal Payments
Year Outstanding debt Interest Expense Total Payment Principal Repaid Remaining Principal
1 $5,000,000.00 $290,000.00 $672,917.36 $382,917.36 $4,617,082.64
2 $4,617,082.64 $267,790.79 $672,917.36 $405,126.57 $4,211,956.08
3 $4,211,956.08 $244,293.45 $672,917.36 $428,623.91 $3,783,332.17
4 $3,783,332.17 $219,433.27 $672,917.36 $453,484.09 $3,329,848.08
5 $3,329,848.08 $193,131.19 $672,917.36 $479,786.17 $2,850,061.91
6 $2,850,061.91 $165,303.59 $672,917.36 $507,613.77 $2,342,448.14
7 $2,342,448.14 $135,861.99 $672,917.36 $537,055.37 $1,805,392.77
8 $1,805,392.77 $104,712.78 $672,917.36 $568,204.58 $1,237,188.19
9 $1,237,188.19 $71,756.92 $672,917.36 $601,160.44 $636,027.75
10 $636,027.75 $36,889.61 $672,917.36 $636,027.75 $0.00
Aswath Damodaran 69
Net Income on The Home Depot Store
Year Revenues Operating Expenses Depreciation EBIT Interest Expense Taxable Income Taxes Net Income
1 $40,000,000 $36,000,000 $1,250,000 $2,750,000 $290,000 $2,460,000 $861,000 $1,599,000
2 $42,000,000 $37,800,000 $1,250,000 $2,950,000 $267,791 $2,682,209 $938,773 $1,743,436
3 $44,100,000 $39,690,000 $1,250,000 $3,160,000 $244,293 $2,915,707 $1,020,497 $1,895,209
4 $46,305,000 $41,674,500 $1,250,000 $3,380,500 $219,433 $3,161,067 $1,106,373 $2,054,693
5 $48,620,250 $43,758,225 $1,250,000 $3,612,025 $193,131 $3,418,894 $1,196,613 $2,222,281
6 $51,051,263 $45,946,136 $1,250,000 $3,855,126 $165,304 $3,689,823 $1,291,438 $2,398,385
7 $53,603,826 $48,243,443 $1,250,000 $4,110,383 $135,862 $3,974,521 $1,391,082 $2,583,438
8 $56,284,017 $50,655,615 $1,250,000 $4,378,402 $104,713 $4,273,689 $1,495,791 $2,777,898
9 $59,098,218 $53,188,396 $1,250,000 $4,659,822 $71,757 $4,588,065 $1,605,823 $2,982,242
10 $62,053,129 $55,847,816 $1,250,000 $4,955,313 $36,890 $4,918,423 $1,721,448 $3,196,975
Aswath Damodaran 70
The Hurdle Rate
n The analysis is done in equity terms. Thus, the hurdle rate has to be a
real cost of equity
n The cost of equity for the Home Depot is 9.78%. Since the Home
Depot’s investments are assumed to be homogeneous, the cost of
equity for this project is also assumed to be 9.78%.
Aswath Damodaran 71
ROE on this Project
Aswath Damodaran 72
From Project ROE to Firm ROE
n As with the earlier analysis, where we used return on capital and cost
of capital to measure the overall quality of projects, we can compute
return on equity and cost of equity to pass judgment on whether a firm
is creating value to its equity investors.
Boeing Home Depot InfoSoft
Return on Equity 7.58% 22.37% 33.47%
Cost of Equity 10.58% 9.78% 13.19%
ROE - Cost of Equity -2.99% 12.59% 20.28%
Aswath Damodaran 73
Additional Assumptions
Aswath Damodaran 74
An Incremental CF Analysis
Aswath Damodaran 75
NPV of the Store
Aswath Damodaran 76
Internal Rate of Return: The Home Depot Store
$30,000,000
$25,000,000
$20,000,000
$15,000,000
$10,000,000
$5,000,000
Internal Rate of Return
$0
($5,000,000)
($10,000,000)
($15,000,000)
Discount Rate
Aswath Damodaran 77
The Role of Sensitivity Analysis
Aswath Damodaran 78
Viability of New Store: Sensitivity to Operating
Margin
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000 NPV
$-
6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12%
$(2,000)
$(4,000)
$(6,000)
Operating Margin
Aswath Damodaran 79
What does sensitivity analysis tell us?
Assume that the manager at The Home Depot who has to decide on
whether to take this plant is very conservative. She looks at the
sensitivity analysis and decides not to take the project because the
NPV would turn negative if the operating margin drops below 8%. Is
this the right thing to do?
o Yes
o No
Explain.
Aswath Damodaran 80
The ‘‘Consistency Rule” for Cash Flows
n The cash flows on a project and the discount rate used should be
defined in the same terms.
• If cash flows are in one currency, the discount rate has to be a dollar
(baht) discount rate
• If the cash flows are nominal (real), the discount rate has to be nominal
(real).
n If consistency is maintained, the project conclusions should be
identical, no matter what cash flows are used.
Aswath Damodaran 81
The Home Depot: A New Store in Chile
Year Net Income Depreciation Capital Expenditures Debt Issued/Principal Repayment Change in Working Capital Salvage Value FCFE
0 (4,700.00) 1,880.00 (705.00) (3,525.00)
1 (22.83) 235.00 (107.01) (84.60) 20.57
2 15.35 235.00 (119.87) (94.75) 35.72
3 58.11 235.00 (134.29) (106.12) 52.70
4 106.00 235.00 (150.43) (118.86) 71.71
5 159.64 235.00 (168.52) (133.12) 93.00
6 219.72 235.00 (188.78) (149.09) 116.84
7 287.01 235.00 (211.48) (166.99) 143.55
8 362.39 235.00 (236.91) (187.02) 173.45
9 446.81 235.00 (265.39) (209.47) 206.94
10 541.36 235.00 (297.30) 1,955.02 2,350.00 4,784.08
Aswath Damodaran 83
The Home Depot Chile Store: Cost of Equity in
Pesos
Aswath Damodaran 84
NPV in Pesos
Aswath Damodaran 85
Converting Pesos to U.S. dollars
n This entire analysis can be done in dollars, if we convert the peso cash
flows into U.S. dollars.
n If you want the analysis to yield consistent conclusions, expected
exchange rates have to be estimated based upon expected inflation
rates:
• Current Exchange Rate = 470 pesos
• Expected Ratet = Exchange Rate* (1 + inflationChile)/ (1 + inflationUS)]
• Expected Exchange Rate in year 1 = 470 pesos * (1.08/1.02) = 497.65
Aswath Damodaran 86
Analyzing the Project: U.S. Dollars
Aswath Damodaran 87
NPV in U.S. Dollars
Aswath Damodaran 88
Dealing with Inflation
n In our analysis, we used nominal dollars and pesos. Would the NPV
have been different if we had used real cash flows instead of nominal
cash flows?
o It would be much lower, since real cash flows are lower than nominal
cash flows
o It would be much higher
o It should be unaffected
Aswath Damodaran 89
From Nominal to Real : The Home Depot
Aswath Damodaran 90
Nominal versus Real
Aswath Damodaran 91
Side Costs and Benefits
n Most projects considered by any business create side costs and benefits
for that business.
n The side costs include the costs created by the use of resources that the
business already owns (opportunity costs) and lost revenues for other
projects that the firm may have.
n The benefits that may not be captured in the traditional capital
budgeting analysis include project synergies (where cash flow benefits
may accrue to other projects) and options embedded in projects
(including the options to delay, expand or abandon a project).
n The returns on a project should incorporate these costs and benefits.
Aswath Damodaran 92
Opportunity Cost
Aswath Damodaran 93
Case 1: Opportunity Costs
n Assume that Boeing owns the land that will be used to build the plant
for the Super Jumbo Jet already. This land is undeveloped and was
acquired several years ago for $40 million. The land currently can be
sold for $ 100 million, though that would create a capital gain (which
will be taxed at 20%). In assessing the Boeing Super Jumbo, which of
the following would you do:
o Ignore the cost of the land, since Boeing owns its already
o Use the book value of the land, which is $ 40 million
o Use the market value of the land, which is $ 100 million
o Other:
Aswath Damodaran 94
Case 2: Excess Capacity
n In the Boeing example, assume that the firm will use its existing
storage facilities, which have excess capacity, to hold inventory
associated with the Super Jumbo. The project analyst argues that there
is no cost associated with using these facilities, since they have been
paid for already and cannot be sold or leased to a competitor (and thus
has no competing current use). Do you agree?
o Yes
o No
Aswath Damodaran 95
Estimating the Cost of Excess Capacity
Aswath Damodaran 96
Opportunity Cost of Excess Capacity
Aswath Damodaran 97
Product and Project Cannibalization
n When a firm makes a new investment, some of the revenues may come
from existing investments of the firm. This is referred to as
cannibalization. Examples would be:
• A New Starbucks that is opening four blocks away from an existing
Starbucks
• A personal computer manufacturer like Apple or Dell introducing a new
and more powerful PC
n The key question to ask in this case is
• What will happen if we do not make this new investment?
– If the sales on existing products would have been lost anyway (to
competitors), there is no incremental effect and the lost sales should not be
considered.
– If the sales on existing products would remain intact, the cannibalization is a
real cost.
Aswath Damodaran 98
Product and Project Cannibalization: A Real
Cost?
Assume that in the Home Depot Store analysis, 20% of the revenues at the
store are expected to come from people who would have gone to a
existing store nearby. In doing the analysis of the store, would you
o Look at only incremental revenues (i.e. 80% of the total revenue)
o Look at total revenues at the park
o Choose an intermediate number
Would your answer be different if you were analyzing whether
introducing the Boeing Super Jumbo would cost you sales on the
Boeing 747?
o Yes
o No
Aswath Damodaran 99
Project Synergies
n A project may provide benefits for other projects within the firm. If
this is the case, these benefits have to be valued and shown in the
initial project analysis.
n For instance, the Home Depot, when it considers opening a new
restaurant at one of its stores, will have to examine the additional
revenues that may accrue to this store from people who come to the
restaurant.
Year Revenues Working Capital Investment in Working Capital Salvage Value Present Value
0 $0 $0 $0 $0
1 $0 $0 $0 $0
2 $0 $0 $0 $0
3 $0 $0 $0 $0
4 $0 $0 ($1,000) ($700)
5 $10,000 $1,000 ($1,575) ($1,009)
6 $25,750 $2,575 ($77) ($45)
7 $26,523 $2,652 ($80) ($43)
8 $27,318 $2,732 ($82) ($40)
9 $28,138 $2,814 ($84) ($38)
10 $28,982 $2,898 ($87) ($36)
11 $29,851 $2,985 ($90) ($34)
12 $30,747 $3,075 ($92) ($32)
13 $31,669 $3,167 ($95) ($30)
14 $32,619 $3,262 ($98) ($28)
15 $33,598 $3,360 ($101) ($26)
16 $34,606 $3,461 ($104) ($25)
17 $35,644 $3,564 ($107) ($24)
18 $36,713 $3,671 ($110) ($22)
19 $37,815 $3,781 ($113) ($21)
20 $38,949 $3,895 $686 $115
21 $32,094 $3,209 ($96) ($15)
22 $33,057 $3,306 ($99) ($14)
23 $34,049 $3,405 ($102) ($13)
24 $35,070 $3,507 ($105) ($12)
25 $36,122 $3,612 $3,612 $389
($1,701)
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15%
Working Capital as % of Revenues
n For firms with a single product that knows what the demand for its
product is with certainty, the optimal level of inventory can be
estimated by trading off the carrying costs against the ordering costs.
The optimal amount that the firm should order can be written as:
n Economic Order Quantity = 2* Annual Demand in Units* Ordering Cost per Order
Carrying Cost per Unit
Inventory replenished
Average Inventory
= Order
Quantity/2 +
Safety Inventory
Safety Inventory
Time
n Inventory at the Home Depot is 14.91% of sales, while the average for
the sector is slightly higher at 16.65%. However, The Home Depot is
larger and less risky than the average firm in the sector, which would
lead us to expect a lower inventory holding at the firm.
n We regressed inventory as a percent of sales against firm size
(measured as ln(Revenues)) and risk (measured using standard
deviation in operating earnings) for this sector:
Inventory/Sales = 0.056 +.0082 ln(Revenues) + 0.1283 (Standard Deviation)
(0.87) (1.11) (2.51)
n Plugging in the values of each of these variables for the Home Depot
yields a predicted inventory/sales ratio:
Inventory/SalesHome Depot = 0.056 + .0082 (10.09) + .1283 (.2415) = 0.1697
n The actual inventory/sales ratio of 14.91% is slightly lower than this
predicted value.
Aswath Damodaran 117
Managing Accounts Receivable
n Cash Flow Analysis: Compare the present value of the cash flows
(from higher sales) that will be generated from easier credit to the
present value of the costs (higher bad debts, more cash tied up in
accounts receivable)
n Peer Group Analysis: Compare the accounts receivable as a percent
of revenues at a firm to the same ratio at other firms in the business.
n Stereo City, an electronics retailer, has historically not extended credit to its
customers and has accepted only cash payments. In the current year, it had
revenues of $10 million and pre-tax operating income of $ 2 million. If Stereo
City offers 30-day credit to its customers, it expects these changes to occur:
• Sales are expected to increase by $ 1 million each year, with the pre-tax operating
margin remaining at 20% on these incremental sales.
• The store expects to charge an annualized interest rate of 12% on these credit sales.
• The bad debts (including the collection costs and net of any repossessions) are
expected to be 5% of the credit sales.
• The cost of administration associated with credit sales is expected to be $25,000 a
year, along with an initial investment in a computerized credit-tracking system of
$100,000. The computerized system will be depreciated straight line over 10 years.
• The tax rate is 40%.
• The store is expected to be in business for 10 years; at the end of that period, it is
expected that 95% of the accounts receivable will be collected (and salvaged)
• The store is expected to face a cost of capital of 10%.
n Risky securities can range from securities with default risk (corporate
bonds) to securities with equity risk (equity in other companies)
n The investment principle continues to apply. If the expected return on
these investments is equal to the required return, these investments are
value neutral.
• If securities are fairly priced, investments in the marketable securities are
value neutral.
• If securities are under priced, investments in marketable securities can
create value (have positive net present value)
• If securities are over valued, investments in marketable securities are
value destroying.
PV of Cash Flows
from Project
Initial Investment in
Project
n Taking a project today may allow a firm to consider and take other
valuable projects in the future.
n Thus, even though a project may have a negative NPV, it may be a
project worth taking if the option it provides the firm (to take other
projects in the future) provides a more-than-compensating value.
n These are the options that firms often call “strategic options” and use
as a rationale for taking on “negative NPV” or even “negative return”
projects.
PV of Cash Flows
from Expansion
Additional Investment
to Expand
Cost of Abandonment
n Assume that the Home Depot is considering a new store that requires a
net initial investment of $ 9.5 million and generates cash flows with a
present value of $8.563 million. The net present value of -$937,287
would lead us to reject this project.
n To illustrate the effect of the option to abandon, assume that the Home
Depot has the option to close the store any time over the next 10 years
and sell the land back to the original owner for $ 5 million. In addition,
assume that the standard deviation in the present value of the cash
flows is 22%.