Agricultural Systems: Pablo Tittonell

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Agricultural Systems 126 (2014) 3–14

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Agricultural Systems
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy

Livelihood strategies, resilience and transformability in African


agroecosystems
Pablo Tittonell ⇑
Farming Systems Ecology, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 563, 6700 AN Wageningen, The Netherlands

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Aiming to translate resilience thinking theory into farming systems design practice, this paper examines
Available online 9 December 2013 fundamental properties of complex systems dynamics and their relation with the mechanisms that gov-
ern resilience and transformability in African smallholder agriculture. Agroecosystems dynamics emerge
Keywords: from the aggregation of diverse livelihood strategies in response to changes in the agroecosystem con-
Farming systems text, and are characterised by non-linearity, irreversibility, convergence/divergence and hysteresis. I
Farm typology examine a number of case studies from Africa to verify three guiding hypotheses in connection to the
Poverty traps
diversity of rural livelihood strategies: (1) diversity as alternative system regimes; (2) diversity as the
Feedbacks
System regimes
result of transformability; (3) diversity determined by changing agricultural contexts. The hierarchy of
Alternate stable states constraints that determine the space for manoeuvring in agroecosystems is described through the anal-
ogy of the Matryoshka nesting dolls: each system level confines and is confined by their immediate sub-
and supra-systems. Agricultural contexts, as defined by agro-ecological potential, demography and mar-
ket connectivity are also dynamic and their trajectory can be described as shifts across stability domains.
An example from Kenya shows that household diversity can be described as alternative system regimes,
through hysteretic rather than continuous, reversible models. In some particular cases diversity emerges
from divergent pathways that may have implied radical transformations in the past, as shown here for
rural livelihoods in northern Cameroun. A comparative analysis of East African agroecosystems shows
that thresholds in specific variables that may point to the existence of possible tipping points are rather
elusive and largely site specific, requiring systematic categorisation of agricultural contexts. While agroe-
cology needs to provide the knowledge base for the ecological intensification of smallholder landscapes,
policy and market developments are needed to deal with the Matryoshka effect – or with interactions
that are presumably panarchical in certain cases. Desirable shifts in farming systems can only be stimu-
lated by working on both ends simultaneously.
Ó 2013 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Open access under CC BY-NC-ND license.

1. Introduction using the analogy of the Matryoshka nesting dolls: each system le-
vel confines and is confined by their immediate sub- and supra-
The extent and persistence of rural poverty in the African con- systems, respectively. These two assumptions underpin, for in-
tinent is often described in terms of ‘vicious cycles’, ‘downward stance, the concept of fractal poverty traps or self-reinforcing cross
spirals’ or ‘poverty traps’ (e.g., Lybbert et al., 2004) in the attempt scale impacts (cf. Barret and Swallow, 2006): low-level equilibria
to illustrate the causality at play between demographic processes, at higher spatial scales prevent positive regime shifts at lower spa-
resource degradation, national or regional politics and global tial scales, or across time scales, as past disadvantages of shocks
change. Explicitly or not, these views rely on two major interre- may persist across generations. This implies that strategies to
lated assumptions: (i) the existence of alternative possible system alleviate poverty – to propend to virtuous cycles or upward spirals
regimes or systems equilibria, often used to represent dynamics – must be able to provoke system shifts across certain critical
and cross-scale interactions in social-ecological systems, and (ii) thresholds. To identify the critical thresholds or tipping points that
a hierarchical confinement across scales, which I will describe here define bifurcating trajectories towards alternative – desirable or
undesirable – regimes remains a major challenge in agricultural
research for development. What kind of thresholds are these and
on which variable(s) can they be verified are two of the questions
that this study aims to contribute an answer to.
In complex systems, interactions take place across scales that
⇑ Tel.: +31 317481413.
lead to emergent properties and self-regulatory mechanisms
E-mail address: pablo.tittonell@wur.nl

0308-521X Ó 2013 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Open access under CC BY-NC-ND license.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2013.10.010
4 P. Tittonell / Agricultural Systems 126 (2014) 3–14

(Holling, 1973). This is often observed in smallholder African sys- from the realm of resilience thinking. In Fig. 1 A, the state of the
tems operating under non-conducive circumstances. When sys- system (characterised by a fast-changing state variable) describes
tems are confined, i.e. when the outermost Matryoshka nesting a continuous response to the underlying controlling variable and
doll would offer small room for manoeuvring, several resilience abrupt change once a threshold is crossed. In B, there are two pos-
mechanisms will result from agroecosystem properties associated sible, alternate system regimes of the state variable, and alternate
with the meso (e.g., diverse livelihood strategies) and micro (e.g., thresholds or tipping points in the driving variable that, when
farmer-induced soil heterogeneity) scales. In extreme situations crossed, will trigger a switch from one regime to the other. A typ-
or under long-lasting pressure, smallholder livelihood strategies ical example is the cycle of stocking-destocking in smallholder
may even experience radical transformations, which may imply agroecosystems, in which livestock are a means of accumulating
introducing new components and processes in a system, or even capital that can be made available relatively easily in case of (unex-
changes in the scale at which the system operates. Thus, human pected) need. Gradual stocking by smallholders is a common re-
agency often overrides the net effect of major biophysical pro- sponse to favourable agricultural seasons that allow cash crops
cesses in shaping the agroecosystem, and seen under the light of or food surpluses to be sold on the market. Destocking to cover
the multiple equilibria theory (e.g., Walker et al., 2004) human im- household expenditures and re-investments is typical after a
pacts on natural resources and community strategies to sustain shock, such as the effect of a dry agricultural season or a plague.
their livelihoods exhibit dynamics in time that are frequently When shocks are recurrent or unfavourable situations last long
non-linear and irreversible (or effectively irreversible in human households will be forced to liquidate all their livestock, including
time scales). Measures to prevent further degradation of natural the animals used for toiling the soil. Nutrient inputs to crops
capital and human well-being in African human ecosystems, or through animal manure are no longer possible, and thus both the
to restore these through development interventions, need to em- area cropped and the yield per unit area will be affected, leading
brace non-linearity and irreversibility as inherent properties of to an overall decline in agricultural productivity. Under such cir-
these systems. cumstances, restocking will take long or be unachievable for cer-
The address of Walker et al. (2010) to the GCIAR Science Forum tain households in the mid term. Non-livestock farms in such
of 2009 proposed practical definitions of general and specified cases are clearly on a lower equilibrium regime, or a poverty trap.
resilience, and of transformability for use in the design of new nat- Fig. 1B also shows that in shifting from regime I to II and back the
ural resource management strategies in the developing world. development and return pathways are different, indicating hyster-
These authors define general resilience as the capacity of a social etic responses. For example, the restoration of biophysical quality
ecological system to deal with shocks, without the need to specify of degraded agroecosystems often implies long-term investments,
the nature of such shocks or the state variable in the system that is and their original productivity may not always be achieved. The
affected, as would be the case for specified resilience (i.e., resil- distance between the pathways of degradation and restoration is
ience of what, to what? – Walker et al., 2010). Transformability re- known as the hysteresis of land rehabilitation (Tittonell et al.,
fers to the capacity of systems to change when confined in 2008, 2012).
untenable situations, when alternative re-configurations of the Although in Walker et al. (2010) the scheme in Fig. 1B is de-
current system are not possible or ineffective. These properties scribed as depicting alternate stable (equilibrium) states, a term
were illustrated by these authors through examining environmen- that has become jargon in the resilience literature, Walker et al.
tal dynamics in a watershed ecosystem in SE Australia. To date, the (2006) had earlier argued that ‘‘configurations of states in which
plea to ‘translate’ these properties into meaningful and quantifi- the system has the same controls on function, i.e., the same feed-
able indicators and thresholds that represent states and dynamics backs, and essentially the same structure represent different states
of smallholder agricultural systems (in Africa) remains largely within the same system regime’’, indicating that the term ‘alter-
unanswered. nate states’ is a misnomer. Here, I will consistently use the terms
In this paper I examine the role of human agency in the mech- system regimes or equilibria as synonymous, and not stable states,
anisms that underpin resilience and transformability in African hu- to avoid confusion. Alternate system regimes or multiple equilibria
man ecosystems with the purpose of linking these to the attributes can be also illustrated through the stability landscapes proposed
that are commonly used in farming systems analysis, such as live- by Scheffer et al. (2001), in which a system is represented as a ball
lihood strategies, household diversity and dynamics. Fundamental that moves between two alternative basins of attraction (a and b,
properties of systems dynamics are analysed to inform strategies or system regimes I and II) once a certain threshold is crossed
and development actions to preserve livelihoods in rural commu- (Fig. 1C). It must be kept in mind that in social-ecological systems
nities, namely non-linearity, irreversibility, convergence/diver- different regimes may be more or less desirable for different stake-
gence and hysteresis. These are studied using qualitative and holders, so that in certain circumstances a may be preferable to b.
quantitative evidence from African agroecosystems that span a Desirability may be defined in social, economic or ecological terms,
range of ecological and demographic gradients. As the analysis fo- and undesirable regimes can sometimes be very resilient (Walker
cuses on human agency operating at a mesoscale, i.e. the house- et al., 2006).
hold, the community or the territory, the biophysical At higher scales, Fernandez et al. (2002) speak of alternative
mechanisms that govern resilience in agroecosystems are not stability domains, which are defined by a measure of (agro)eco-
explicitly considered here. The paper starts with a brief description system performance and an indicator of ecosystem insurance
of the theory used, followed by the enunciation of the main (Fig. 1D). For example, in their analysis of sustainability of a
hypotheses and by the analysis of case studies from rural Africa smallholder region of Tanzania Enfors and Gordon (2007) pro-
to verify these hypotheses, and finally discusses the pertinence posed the use of a soil water index on the horizontal axis and
and interest of using concepts from resilience thinking in farming the ‘ecosystems insurance capacity’ on the vertical one. The for-
systems analysis. mer is an aggregated indicator that reflects the amount of soil
available water for food production per capita; the latter repre-
sents the capacity of the surrounding landscape to generate pro-
2. Theoretical framework visioning ecosystems services that could provide alternative food
and/or incomes when crop production fails. Here, I use the con-
Graphically, non-linear responses, thresholds and hysteresis cept of stability domains to illustrate diversity and long term
could be cartooned as in Fig. 1, borrowed from several authors dynamics in agricultural contexts.
P. Tittonell / Agricultural Systems 126 (2014) 3–14 5

A No alternate regimes B Two alternate regimes

State of capital stock (fast variable)


State of capital stock (fast variable)
e II
Regim
- -

Hysteresis
Threshold

+ +
eI
Regim

Underlying (controlling) variable Underlying (controlling) variable

C Stability landscapes D Stability domains


System

Agro-ecosystem insurance
Sustained but Productive state
Reg vulnerable state
ime
II
ce
ien
si l
re
Thre g
shold s in
ea
cr
In
e
nc
s ilie
re
g
sin
t2 ea
cr
In

Re g t1 Sustained but
ime Degraded state vulnerable state
I e
Tim
t0 Agro-ecosystem productivity

E Convergence towards a single higher equlibrium F Divergence towards alternate higher equilibria

Regime II

Regime I

Fig. 1. Graphical representation of system properties used in the analysis of the various cases studies. Illustration of thresholds (A) and hysteresis (B) as proposed by Walker
et al. (2010), of stability landscapes as proposed by Scheffer et al. (2001), of ecosystem stability domains following Fernandez et al. (2002). Convergence (A) and divergence (B)
are illustrated through an ad hoc adaptation of the stability landscapes proposed by Scheffer et al. (2001).

Sometimes alternative equilibria may lay at the crossroad of with sub- and supra-systems. Often the shifts, crises, or non-linear-
two or more rural livelihood trajectories. In the sub-Sahelian ities observed in ecological systems result from processes and
savannahs of West Africa, for example, the sedentary agro-pastoral structures interacting across scales (Gunderson and Holling,
strategy that was earlier only restricted to certain ethnic groups in 2002). Then, another way of looking at fractal poverty traps or Mat-
the region became a converging equilibrium for a diversity of ryoshka effects is to think in terms of hysteresis between alternate
them. Nowadays, and although certain idiosyncrasies are still evi- system regimes. Fig. 2 illustrates the possibility of fractal poverty
dent, Fulani and Mossi agroecosystems share the same landscapes traps considering three scales or levels of integration. While the re-
and are increasingly converging in terms of structure and function- gime A of the supra-system (i + 1) may allow strongly hysteretic
ing in the central plateau of Burkina Faso (Vall and Diallo, 2009). In responses to happen at system (i) level (i.e., a big ‘jump’ from re-
some other cases, pressure on natural resources and the erosion of gime D to regime C in response to interventions), the lower equilib-
traditional livelihoods may lead to households following divergent rium regime B confines the system and interventions may only
strategies, trajectories that lead to alternative higher equilibria, induce timid shifts between two possible alternate regimes C and
implying either system re-configurations or radical transforma- D. The latter confines in its turn the possible subsystem (i1) re-
tions. Fig. 1E and F illustrate divergence and convergence through gimes, E and F, so that hysteretic responses are no longer possible,
an ad hoc adaptation of the stability landscapes of Scheffer et al. opportunities are few (linearization), and the incentives to invest
(2001). time, resources and effort wane. On the opposite cross-scale trajec-
Finally, the dynamics of a system at any given scale cannot be tory, system and sub-system regimes at higher equilibria lead to
understood without considering the dynamics of and interactions hysteretic responses, opportunity, or an increased discretisation
6 P. Tittonell / Agricultural Systems 126 (2014) 3–14

Fig. 2. A graphical representation of the Matryoshka effect, or hierarchical confinement across scales (i1 to i + 1). The x axis represents the level of integration, closely
associated with the scale of analysis (cultivated field, farm, communal territory, region, country, etc.). The y axis represents the hysteresis associated with possible alternate
regimes at each scale. Poverty traps are conceptualised as situations in which alternate regimes are not possible due to confinement of the system by its immediate supra-
system (context), desirable regime shifts are no longer viable as one moves along the lower grey arrow from right to left. On the upper cross scale trajectory, conducive
situations at higher scales create room for manoeuvring at lower scales, hysteretic responses and desirable regime shifts are possible.

of system regimes. The Matryoshka analogy is used here to de- 2010). Underpinning poverty traps, the pathways of degradation-
scribe hierarchical confinement, in which slow and broad variables restoration of biophysical resources describe hysteretic trajectories
constrain and shape small and fast ones (cf. O’Neill et al., 1986). that reinforce the co-existence of alternate system regimes.
With all these concepts in mind, I propose three hypotheses Although the analysis of biophysical responses merits a separate
that attempt to explain diversity in livelihood strategies on the ba- study, the agroecological potential of a certain region is one deter-
sis of properties of resilience and transformability in smallholder minant of the thresholds in farm sizes or population densities. One
agroecosystems: of the first questions that arises when trying to test the above
hypotheses is to identify the measurable variables or indicators
1. In a majority of cases the diversity of livelihood strategies in that best reflect alternate system regimes, e.g., those that should
rural Africa can be described as alternative system regimes, be plotted on both axes of Fig. 1B. I examined sets of socio-eco-
and their dynamics exhibit non-linearity, thresholds, irrevers- nomic data across the case studies described in the following sec-
ibility and hysteresis, tion and propose possible (non-exhaustive) indicators of resource
2. In some particular cases, household diversity cannot be endowment and system performance. Each case study in the next
described as alternative configurations of a same system, but section deals with one of the hypotheses outlined above.
rather as the result of alternative, divergent or convergent path-
ways that may have implied radical transformations in the past, 3. Case studies
3. Hierarchical confinement, or the Matryoshka effect, may be
unravelled through comparative analysis and categorisation of 3.1. The diversity of livelihood strategies seen as alternative system
agricultural contexts based on agro-ecological potential, regimes
demography and market connectivity.
Resource degradation and the concomitant degradation of rural
African smallholder systems are complex, dynamic and spa- livelihoods in Africa are often assumed to follow a continuous,
tially heterogeneous socio-ecological systems (cf. Tittonell et al., reversible trajectory in time (cf. Fig. 1A). This assumption justifies
P. Tittonell / Agricultural Systems 126 (2014) 3–14 7

categorising households according to their level of resource reinforcing the gap between both. Children from impoverished
endowment (e.g., poor, mid-class and wealthy). Based on this, it households may be removed from school, reducing even further
has been often argued that a certain threshold of resource endow- their opportunities to step out of the poverty trap. On the other ex-
ment should be crossed for households to reach higher welfare treme, wealthier households exhibit different livelihood strategies
equilibrium (e.g., a tipping point in terms of asset holdings, but that may not necessarily rely on agricultural assets. The way out of
not necessarily in terms of system functioning). Yet we have seen agriculture may be contemporaneous or trans-generational, when
in the previous section that households that undergo a contraction investments are made in the higher education of children.
of their natural, financial and human resources become increas- The diversity of possible livelihood strategies and development
ingly vulnerable to shocks and susceptible to fall into poverty traps pathways in a densely populated region of western Kenya has been
(cf. Fig. 1B and related text). Impoverishment often involves liqui- categorised through a functional typology that distinguished five
dation of capital assets, including land or livestock to cover imme- rural household types (Table 1, adapted from Tittonell et al.,
diate expenses, loss of social credit, and sometimes a thorough 2005a,b). Fig. 3A illustrates the diversity of households surveyed
reconfiguration of livelihood strategies. The labour force of impov- in the region using total cropping area as the controlling variable
erished households is sold cheaply to wealthier ones, thereby and income as an indicator of performance. The theoretical,

Table 1
Functional typology for household categorisation in western Kenya (adapted from Tittonell et al., 2005a).

Farm Resource endowmenta and production orientation Main characteristicsb


type
1 Predominantly high to medium resource endowment, Variable age of the household head, small families, mostly constrained by land availability (lack of
mainly self-subsistence oriented family labour compensated by hiring-in). Permanent sources of off-farm income (e.g. salary,
pension, etc.)
2 High resource endowment, market-oriented Older household head, numerous family (starting land subdivision), mostly constrained by labour
(hired-in) due to large farm areas; cash crops and other farm produce are the main source of
income
3 Medium resource endowment, self subsistence and (low- Young to mid-aged household head, young families of variable size in expansion, mostly
input) market-oriented constrained by capital and sometimes labour, farm produce and marketable surpluses plus
complementary non-farm enterprises
4 Predominantly low to medium resource endowment, Young to mid-aged household head, variable family size, constrained by availability of land and
self-subsistence oriented capital, deriving income from non-farm activities (e.g. ox-plough service, handicrafts)
5 Low resource endowment, self-subsistence oriented Variable age of household head, variable family size, often women-headed farms constrained by
land and capital, selling their labour locally for agricultural practices (thus becoming labour-
constrained)
a
Referring to assets representing wealth indicators (i.e. land size, livestock ownership, type of homestead, etc.).
b
These refer to the family structure (age of the household head) in relation to the position of the household in the ‘farm development cycle’ (Crowley, 1997), to the main
constraints to agricultural production faced by the household, and to the main source of income.

Fig. 3. Indicators of resource endowment and performance (‘well being’) from a survey of rural households in western Kenya (n = 55). (A) Total household income, (B) income
per capita (active household member), (C) economic return to labour, (D) total food production, (E) food per capita and (F) Maize grain yield plotted against the area of
cropland, the ratio of land owned to family labour and the ratio of cropped land to total household size (source: Tittonell et al., 2005a,b).
8 P. Tittonell / Agricultural Systems 126 (2014) 3–14

hand-drawn lines in Fig. 3A give an indication of what I believe to (iii) access to credit. Wealthier households are always self-suffi-
be two alternate regimes corresponding to low and high welfare cient and able to store maize surpluses, to sell them at peak prices
equilibria. Households of type 1 are those that have stepped out before the next harvest, or use them to pay for hired labour (Ta-
of agriculture to engage in off-farm activities to earn most (>60%) ble 2). Poorer households struggle to achieve self-sufficiency. Nev-
of their income. Although they may continue growing small areas ertheless, they often sell their maize immediately after harvest,
of food crops for self-consumption, their main livelihood strategy when prices are the lowest, and buy food the rest of the year. These
exclude them from the general trend in the relationship between feedbacks keep poorest households (T4 and T5) trapped in a low
resources (land) and performance (income). Households of type welfare regime, while ensuring cheap labour to wealthiest house-
2, the wealthiest, grow cash crops and practice a more intensive holds (a form of credit).
agriculture that integrates cropping and livestock activities, and
that relies on external inputs and additional labour. These house- 3.1.1. Farm typologies and resilience
holds consist of numerous, often polygamous families. The functional typology proposed for western Kenya (cf. Ta-
In search for more evident thresholds or tipping points in re- ble 1), which was later corroborated across a wider range of agro-
source endowment to trigger regime shifts, other commonly used ecosystems of East Africa (Tittonell et al., 2010), differentiates
indicators and thresholds were plotted in Fig. 3B–F. The ratio of households pursuing basically three main livelihood strategies,
available land to household labour was used as indicator of re- which may be also described as Dorward (2009) did: (1) ‘Hanging
source endowment, and per capita food production and income in’, which takes place in situations of poor natural resource poten-
as indicators of performance. In spite of the differences discussed, tial and market opportunities, and where households engage in
most of the households surveyed in this case lived with less than 1 activities to maintain their current livelihood (subsistence farm-
us$ per capita a day (Fig. 3B) – a commonly used poverty threshold. ing); (2) ‘Stepping up’, in situations of high agricultural potential
The economic return to labour invested on-farm was lower than and where investments in assets are made to expand current pro-
the average wage perceive for agricultural work in the area for duction activities (semi-commercial farming); (3) ‘Stepping out’,
most of the farms of type 3–5 (Fig. 3C). Food production was virtu- when activities are used to accumulate assets that may allow mov-
ally proportional to the area cropped, with edible dry matter yields ing into different activities, not necessarily farming (i.e. migration
of between 1 and 2 t ha1 (Fig. 3 D), which is above the average of 1 to cities and/or local engagement in non-farm activities). Farm
t cereal ha1 often cited for sub-Saharan Africa. Among the house- types can be seen fluctuating within two alternate system regimes.
holds that did not reach food self-sufficiency, calculated as the To illustrate this, Fig. 4 shows now the five household types placed
caloric equivalent of 180 kg maize person1 year1, the ratio of in a two-dimensional plain defined by levels of resource endow-
available land to family labour was always smaller than ca. 0.4 ment and ‘performance’ in terms of indicators of well-being; i.e.,
ha person1, which corresponds to about less than one acre per la- income, food security, investment capacity, etc. Households of type
bour unit (mostly in types 4 and 5 – Fig. 3E). Food yields were not 3, 4 and 5 may be distributed along a curve that represents a low
necessarily the largest in wealthiest households, who allocated welfare equilibrium (System regime I): increasing resource endow-
their best land to growing cash crops. Households of type 3 tended ment allows increasing performance up to a certain level P’ (mov-
to achieve the largest yields of maize, the stapple food in the region ing from T5 to T3), and vice versa (from T3 down to T5). The poorly
and a major source of income for them (Fig. 3F). endowed households of type 5 are ‘hanging-in’ at meagre levels of
In terms of shifts between the lower and higher welfare equilib- well-being, with several feedback mechanisms confining them to
ria along the agricultural intensification pathway (i.e., T1 house- very resilient poverty traps. The point (P0 ; R0 ) in Fig. 4 corresponds
holds excluded), one may suggest that under the agroecological to a threshold of accumulated asset holdings that may allow
and market conditions of western Kenya, households would need investments to be able, in the short or the long term, to ‘step up’
at least 1.8 ha (about 4 acres) of cropping land to step onto the to a higher welfare regime (System regime II: T2 households) (cf.
higher welfare regime (cf. T2 households in Fig. 3A). Households Figs. 1B and 2).
of type 3 may exhibit cropping areas, land:labour ratios and levels Resource contraction along the high welfare regime may reduce
of agricultural productivity similar to those in type 2, but yet re- performance down to a certain level P’’. The point (P’’; R’’) corre-
main on a lower welfare regime. Significant differences between sponds to a degree of impoverishment that often forces wealthier
these two household types can be seen in: (i) the type of livestock households to ‘step out’ of farming through engagement in off-
activity, (ii) the presence of cash crops (tea, coffee, tobacco), and farm activities, totally or partially, in order to preserve their level

Table 2
Main characteristics of the six sites surveyed in East Africa (Tittonell et al., 2010).

Characteristic Central Kenya Western Kenya Eastern Uganda


Meru S. Mbeere Vihiga Siaya Mbale Tororo
Agro-ecological potential
Altitude (masl) 1500 1100 1600 1200 1600 1100
Rainfall (mm)a 1600 700 1800 1400 1200 1100
Soil fertility Inherently high Moderate to low Inherently high, degraded soils Inherently moderate Inherently high Moderate to high
Demography
Population density (km2) 800 400 1000 350 350 250
Farm sizes (ha) 0.5–3 1–10 0.3–2 0.5–5 0.5–5 1–8
Food self sufficiency (months) 7.0 5.8 3.5 6.9 9.7 9.0
Market connectivity
Distance to urban areasb Close Close Close to medium Medium to far Far Medium to far
Distance to marketsb Close Close to medium Close to medium Medium to far Medium to far Medium to close
Major cash crops Coffee, tea Khat, groundnuts Tea, coffee Sugar cane, cotton Coffee Cotton, tobacco
a
In all sites rainfall takes places in a bimodal pattern (i.e., long and the short rains seasons).
b
These appreciations take into consideration not only physical distance but also infrastructure for transport and communication.
P. Tittonell / Agricultural Systems 126 (2014) 3–14 9

the international price of fibre led to a considerable decrease in the


Performance (well-being)

T2 areas under cotton in the region (ICAC, 2010). Livestock keeping or


cultivation of food crops such as maize or sorghum are increasingly
T1
replacing cotton, as besides contributing to food self-sufficiency
these crops may fetch more attractive prices on the market.
A functional farm typology based on a 2009 survey in the area
‘Stepping out’
P’’ distinguished four major household types (Debru, 2009): live-
‘Stepping up’
stock-based livelihoods (type 1), agriculture-based livelihoods
T3
(type 2), diversifying livelihoods (type 3) and off/non-farm in-
P’
come-based livelihoods (type 4). This typology confirms and at
T4 the same time simplifies previous farm typologies derived for the
‘Hanging in’ region about a decade earlier (e.g., Mbetid-Bessane et al., 2003).
T5 Cotton can still be seen mainly on farms type 2 and to some extent
on type 3. The current landscape is shared between the two major
R’’ R’
ethnic groups that were present in the area since pre-colonial
Resources (natural, social, human) times, the Peuhls and the Mafa, originally nomadic pastoralists
and sedentary agriculturalists respectively (Fig. 5A). These groups
Fig. 4. Theoretical representation of the position of five household types that are have shaped the landscapes they inhabit creating contrasting spa-
common in East Africa (T1–T5 – cf. Table 1) in a two-dimensional plain defined by
tial patterns that reflect different natural resource management
resource endowment and performance (in this case, ‘well-being’). Full lines indicate
two alternate system regimes, and the possible shifts interpreted as livelihood systems. The typology proposed, however, falls short from being
strategies are represented by block arrows. able to differentiate such strategies, as it does not consider the his-
tory of land use and the evolution of livelihood strategies among
the various farm types identified.
of well-being (T1 households). Resource contraction may also take A historical analysis of land occupation and land use patterns
place through liquidation of asset holdings after a drought or to revealed three major phases (Debru, 2009): a phase of sparse set-
face the costs of funerals, through asset subdivision due to inheri- tlement and land clearance for cultivation (until about 1980), a
tance, or when household members face long lasting health prob- phase of massive land clearance for agricultural expansion during
lems that compromise their labour force or their social and the 1990s, and a phase of sedentarisation of nomadic pastoralists
financial capitals, etc. Success in preserving levels of well-being during the last decade (Fig. 5B). The introduction of cotton and
when stepping out of agriculture depends on educational levels, the subsequent expansion of agriculture were fuelled by a number
financial capital and opportunities (e.g., to find wage jobs in urban of development investments, including the creation of the national
areas, to start a business, etc.). Often the step out of agriculture cotton production and processing corporation Sodecoton in 1974.
may be temporary, or partial, when part of the income obtained Converging and diverging livelihood strategies throughout these
off-farm is reinvested in agricultural assets (notably in acquiring three phases led to the diversity of livelihood activities that can
livestock). Obviously households of type 3, 4 or 5 may attempt to be observed today in this territory and that were captured in the
step out of agriculture from different situations defined by P and farm typology. However, current farm type 1 may be the result
R levels, but a distinction is made between families that pursue of either sedentarisation of nomadic pastoralists or of the abandon-
an off-farm strategy (T1) from those that are ‘expelled’ from agri- ment of cotton by wealthier Mafa farmers investing in livestock.
culture when unable to sustain a living in rural areas. Here, I cir- The diversifying farms type 3 may correspond to an alternative
cumscribe the concept of stepping out (T1) to cases in which off- to the latter, or be the result of diversification strategies by seden-
farm strategies are a choice, and off-farm activities become the ma- tary pastoralists, or by young Mafa farmers within links in town.
jor component of total household income. It must be noticed that Etcetera. Current farm types may have followed several possible,
often the families that migrate to urban areas are not necessarily converging trajectories. In cases such as this one, in which transfor-
the poorest, as they need a start-up capital to get established mations are possible and relatively frequent, farm types cannot be
and/or some ‘contacts’ in town. seen simply as alternative states of a same system, and farm typol-
ogies must be delineated considering long-term trajectories, or
3.2. Diverging-converging livelihood strategies and transformability diachronically.

A farm typology derived from a survey of households done on a 3.3. Do we need typologies of agricultural contexts?
single point in time, or synchronically, may sometimes mask
important aspects of the trajectory of livelihood strategies and In his classical review of methods for farm categorisation devel-
the consequent transformations in the agroecosystem through oped and applied in France Landais (1998) suggests the need to
time. Convergence and divergence (cf. Fig. 1E and F) may lead to delineate typologies of agricultural contexts. To understand diver-
initially distinct livelihood strategies ending up resembling in to- sity of farming strategies, farm types should be interpreted and
day’s activities and assets levels, and vice versa. A study in the Sah- analysed within the context in which they operate. This relates
elian region of northern Cameroon that aimed at understanding well with the concept of Matryoshka effects outlined earlier (cf.
farm diversity in relation to the niche for cotton as a main liveli- Fig. 2). In targeting interventions to improve livelihoods through
hood activity, revealed consistently converging and diverging agricultural policy, investment in infrastructure or technology pro-
pathways in household trajectories. The study was done in a small motion, two main dimensions that determine opportunities and
territory near the town of Garoua in the basin of the Benoué river, a constraints across locations are often considered: agroecological
representative example of the former savanes cotonnières of central potential and market opportunities (e.g., IFPRI, 2007). These are
Africa. During the 1970s and 1980s cotton production in the region also the two dimensions that Dorward (2009) uses to distinguish
was seen as an engine for development: ‘‘Cotton builds roads, cotton livelihood strategies of the poor in rural areas (cf. Section 3.3). At
brings water, cotton opens schools. . .’’. Deregulation of production local scale, these strategies and their determinants are nuanced
and marketing and the dismantling of national commodity boards by differences between households in terms of resource endow-
to support the industry, in combination with severe fluctuations in ment, aspirations and social capital (cf. Fig. 4).
10 P. Tittonell / Agricultural Systems 126 (2014) 3–14

Fig. 5. Occupation of a rural territory by two different ethnic groups (Mafa and Peuhl) in northern Cameroon. (A) Aerial picture illustrating typical patterns of land cover
associated with natural resource management practices by the different groups; (B) Convergence and divergence of livelihood strategies illustrated with a timeline that
represents the historical evolution of different clans and ethnic groups in the Benue region of northern Cameroon. The typology of households delineated from a socio-
economic survey conducted in 2009 shows that different current farm types may have followed different trajectories throughout their history, involving somewhat
irreversible transformations, such as sedentarisation (adapted from: Debru, 2009).

In most cases, however, agroecological potential and market market and/or job opportunities in rural communities. In areas of
opportunities – which are also frequently related to each other – high resource potential and ample market opportunities such as
are not enough to explain the observed diversity of livelihood Meru South, different households may hang in, step up or step
strategies across and within locations. Historical, political and out, or pursue mixed strategies, such as investing in lucrative cash
especially demographic processes, in combination with local vari- crops and re-investing their income into higher education for their
ability among households, determine the space of opportunities children (to eventually step out). By contrast, areas of poorer nat-
and constraints within which households types develop (cf. ural and market potential force most households to hang in. The
Fig. 6). This can be illustrated by comparing household surveys conditions required to promote viable stepping-up strategies can
from three regions of relatively high agroecological potential but be illustrated by looking at indicators of current land use and pro-
differing in market access and population pressure (Tittonell duction orientation.
et al., 2010): Eastern Uganda (Mbale and Tororo districts), western In Fig. 6A, the six sites from East Africa have been plotted
Kenya (Vihiga and Siaya districts) and central Kenya (Meru South according to their respective average areas allocated to cash crops
and Mbeere districts) (Table 2). Market opportunities can be de- and left as fallow (n = 236 farms). While it may be assumed that
fined by the size, development and accessibility of major markets market opportunities increase in parallel with the area allocated
(e.g. proximity to urban and export markets, infrastructure, market to cash crops, the effect of agroecological potential is not unidirec-
information, transaction costs). For example, Meru South and Mbe- tional. The lines h1 and h2 represent, respectively, the degree of
ere districts vary widely in agricultural potential but both are lo- complementarity and substitution between allocating land to cash
cated close to the city of Nairobi (with an international airport) crops (a proxy to market orientation) and leaving land fallow (a
and surrounded by the densely populated areas and mid-sized proxy for maintenance of soil fertility through traditional, exten-
towns of central Kenya, relatively well connected through major sive methods). Population growth exerts pressure by reducing
national roads. In terms of agoecological potential, soils are inher- the average land to labour ratios. Below a certain threshold of land
ently more fertile in the districts of Meru South and Mbale, located available per family, which differs across sites according to agroe-
on the foot slopes of Mt. Kenya and Mt. Meru, respectively, and cology and market opportunities, most households are forced to
receiving ample rainfall. The highest rural population densities oc- step out. This is the case of Vihiga district in western Kenya, where
cur in Vihiga district, in western Kenya and the lowest in Tororo, a large number of families pursue off/non-farm income strategies
eastern Uganda. as mentioned before. Earlier studies in the Kenya highlands indi-
Intuitively, one may perhaps expect higher population densities cated minimum thresholds in farm sizes to ensure viability of
in areas with the highest agroecological potential and best market smallholder farming to be around 0.4 ha – about one acre (Salasya,
opportunities. Vihiga, with more than 1000 inhabitants km2 in 2005; Waithaka et al., 2006), which is not far from the current
much of the district, does not directly follow this trend due to eth- average farm sizes in Vihiga district (Table 2). Likewise, it may
no-cultural and historical reasons (Crowley and Carter, 2000). Pop- be hypothesised that there is an optimum farm size in relation to
ulation densities beyond a certain (site-specific) threshold are the particular characteristics of each locality that may allow com-
often inversely proportional to the availability of resources per plementarities between market orientation and sustainable land
household, but a larger population may also create more local use, represented in Fig. 6 A by the line h1. The two least populated
P. Tittonell / Agricultural Systems 126 (2014) 3–14 11

Fig. 6. Market orientation versus traditional management systems. In A, the six agroecosystems described in Table 2 are plotted according to the average area share of cash
crops (a proxy to market orientation) and the percentage of the farm area left fallow (a proxy to traditional soil management) or fallow duration; i.e., an area 20% fallow is
equivalent to 5 years of fallow duration. The hypothetical lines h1 and h2 indicate, respectively, the degree of complementarity and substitution between both strategies; i.e., a
given area with cash crops corresponds to sufficiently-long fallows on h1 or to too-short fallows on h2. In B, the contexts in which these agroecosystems operate (regions) are
depicted across stability domains defined by average levels of current soil fertility (ecosystem state) and of communally owned natural resources such as forest or grazing
lands (ecosystem insurance). The arrows represent the forces that confine the system towards a degraded state (population density and land degradation).

sites, where most households achieve food self-sufficiency (Tororo Malthusian view of several authors who argued that soil degrada-
and Mbale), lie close to the hypothetical ‘complementarity’ bound- tion is not gradual and uniform (e.g., Wrigley, 1957; Grigg, 1974)
ary described by h1. and notably to the view of Crowley and Carter (2000), whose early
Unfortunately, soil degradation and the dwindling of farm sizes documentation of islands of soil fertility created by Maragoli farm-
often occur simultaneously. This is not equivalent to state that the ers inspired much of my own subsequent work on within-farm,
relationship between population density, land use change and soil management-induced soil heterogeneity (e.g., Tittonell et al.,
degradation is simple and unidirectional. I adhere to the non- 2005a,b, 2007). But the increasing pressure on the surrounding
12 P. Tittonell / Agricultural Systems 126 (2014) 3–14

ecosystem and the inability of farmers to access agricultural inputs power, and aggravated when the times are difficult, as in the case
to sustain soil fertility when fallows disappear may push the agro- of droughts or of political instability. The propensity of system
ecosystem across the stability domains proposed by Fernandez shifts may be then weak and barely influenceable by external
et al. (2002) – cf. Fig. 1 D. forces, and households can remain fluctuating on the same system
As population densities increase, the natural ecosystem is regime for generations. In such cases the theory is not good, as it
increasingly occupied and fragmented, on-farm resources are used makes little sense to describe household diversity as alternative
more intensively and subdivided across generations, and commu- system regimes when the alternative is not really there. These
nally owned resources tend to disappear (Fig. 6B). Such trajectories could be better described as endogenously reinforced poverty
can be seen by analysing the biophysically comparable agroecosys- traps.
tems of western Kenya, where high human population and soil When mobility is possible, when the propensity of upward and
degradation were already common in the beginning of the 20th downward shifts is there, this way of conceptualising household
Century (Maxwell et al., 1930), against those of Central Kenya, that diversity may open new insights. It implies that tipping points or
were still unpopulated after independence (e.g., Chogoria, in Meru thresholds can be found beyond which increasing resource avail-
South – Suijkerbuijk, 2005) and those of the highlands of eastern ability can stimulate system shifts in the desirable direction. It im-
Uganda, that are still relatively sparsely populated with respect plies that minimum thresholds could also be found that delineate
to their potential carrying capacity. As systems become increas- ‘no-trespass zones’ if backward shifts are to be avoided. These are
ingly confined, the outer Matroyshka gets smaller, and opportuni- essential to inform development aid or policy measures necessary
ties wane. Yet, the examples shown here indicate that thresholds to preserve livelihoods. This way of conceptualising household
in variables such as population density, land size or soil fertility diversity also implies that in designing development programs it
status remain very elusive and may vary enormously across loca- is not enough to just deliver agricultural inputs to farmers, to pro-
tions. They may be better described as ‘frontiers’ of possibility as vide them with single technological innovations, or to help them
shown in Fig. 6. A typology of agricultural contexts that contem- gain access to more land or to capital assets. Such an approach
plates current drivers, as proposed by Landais (1998), but also stems from conceptualising systems dynamics as represented in
systems trajectories throughout their history (convergence- Fig. 1A, in which trajectories are assumed to be continuous – albeit
divergence) seems essential to understand current diversity and with a threshold – and reversible. Resources are obviously neces-
opportunities for rural livelihood strategies. sary, as are education and initiative, but these are pre-requisites
for shifts to happen and not necessarily shift-triggers in them-
selves. We saw through the examples presented here that it is vir-
4. Discussion and conclusions tually impossible to identify single thresholds in single indicator
variables due to the existence of hysteresis and (effective) irrevers-
This paper contributes some initial responses to the call for ibility (cf. Figs. 3 and 4), and to the influence of evolving contexts
more concrete links between theory and practice around resilience (Fig. 6). Upward shifts may require profound reconfigurations of
thinking in the realm of agricultural development (cf. Walker et al., the farming system, fuelled by a combination of opportunities
2010). The case studies examined here illustrate how concepts and attitudes within conducive socio-economic and biophysical
from systems ecology can be used in conceptualising and studying environments.
key properties of smallholder African farms (cf. Fig. 4) and their I presume that in a large number of cases the diversity of live-
context (cf. Fig. 5). The focus was on human agency, in explaining lihood strategies in rural Africa can be described as alternative sys-
the diversity of livelihood strategies using concepts from resilience tem regimes which dynamics exhibit non-linearity, irreversibility
and transformability, and not on the underlying biophysical pro- and hysteresis. In cases of converging livelihood strategies, as in
cesses in agroecosystems (cf. Tittonell and Giller, 2013). Describing the example of Sahelian Cameroon (cf. Fig. 5), systems that may
household diversity as possible alternative system regimes that bear some resemblance today may have had little in common
follow non-linear trajectories implies – at least by analogy – that throughout their history. Household diversity is then the result
a set of farms in an area may exhibit attributes of population of divergent-convergent livelihood pathways that may have im-
dynamics. This analogy may be valid in many cases, but not neces- plied radical transformations in the past. This may or not be rele-
sarily so when it comes to describing the forces that keep house- vant when targeting development actions, depending on the
holds within a certain system regime preventing change. This is nature of the intervention, but it makes the delineation of house-
because inequities are often reinforced by the nature of very resil- hold typologies rather challenging, and questions at the same time
ient local institutions. the pertinence of commonly used structural typologies based so-
A typical example of this is the free grazing of crop residues by lely on asset levels. Although statistical clustering techniques be-
collective herds of cattle during the dry season that takes place in come increasingly powerful in differentiating homogeneous
many African agroecosystems (cf. McIntire et al., 1992). Communal groups (e.g. multi-dimensional scaling, classification trees), the
grazing on the village croplands represents a transfer of nutrients resulting clustering may not shed much light on understanding
via animal manure from all the fields of all the farmers of a village the determinants and the long-term dynamics of household diver-
to the fields of only those farmers who own livestock, usually less sity. Any clustering technique may be useful when there is, prior to
than 20% of them (e.g., Zingore et al., 2011). Poorer farmers without the statistical analysis, a solid hypothesis concerning household
livestock face negative nutrient balances and a continuous decline diversity in a certain context and for a given purpose (cf. Tittonell
in land productivity. Poorer farmers will also often depend on live- et al., 2010).
stock owners for animal power to prepare their land on time for Typologies are necessarily context-specific, and the context it-
the first rains, and eventually to access some manure to fertilise self is dynamic (cf. Fig. 6). The development of alternative liveli-
their fields, both of which they may obtain in exchange of labour. hood strategies in a given context is confined through the
As a consequence, the poorest farmers of the village often plant Matryoshka effect, which is determined by local agro-ecological
their crops late and with little nutrient input. Less resource en- potential, by demography, by market connectivity and ultimately
dowed households face declining yields, less opportunity, strong by local institutions. The analysis of cross-scale interactions pre-
dependence on wealthier households, and unfavourable negotia- sented here considers only one possible theoretical model: hierar-
tion terms – a typical positive feedback. Such inequitable situa- chical confinement. The Matryoshka analogy, which offers a
tions tend to be resilient, reinforced by local institutions and graphical representation of fractal poverty traps, could perhaps
P. Tittonell / Agricultural Systems 126 (2014) 3–14 13

be of use to describe also the alternative model of panarchical rela- tive capacity to perceived environmental changes (e.g., Enfors
tions, when both top-down and bottom-up interactions may occur et al., 2008) play also a major role in the resilience of these sys-
(Gunderson and Holling, 2002). I did not attempt to test this tems. By analogy to the concept of informal economies of de Soto
hypothesis here, as this will require collecting and analysing extra (2000), such alternatives have been termed informal resource
empirical evidence. Yet there are a number of examples from Afri- strategies (Tittonell et al., 2009), as they tend to be unaccounted
can agroecosystems that suggest possible panarchical interactions. for in agroecosystems analysis.
For instance, all over the savannahs of West and Central Africa, an Agroecosystems are complex socio-ecological systems, with
unprecedented process of ‘privatisation’ of natural resources is tak- biological and cultural dimensions, and their resilience and adapt-
ing place, by which agriculturalists claim ownership over their ability result from the aggregation of individual decisions. Deci-
crop residue biomass while herders claim ownership on their ani- sion-making often responds to rules and traditions established by
mal’s dejections. This often leads to conflict and to meagre flows of agents that compete for/ negotiate over the use of communally
carbon and nutrients between the crop and livestock components owned resources. A key step to understanding adaptation strate-
of these agroecosystems. This compromises food security not only gies is then the study of local perceptions and knowledge sustain-
now but also in the future, as soils are increasingly mined of nutri- ing mechanisms of indigenous resilience, particularly at the scale
ents and physically degraded due to insufficient inputs or organic of the landscape and its functionality. While agroecology needs
matter. to provide technical answers for the sustainable intensification of
In most of Africa, shrinking farm sizes prevent fallowing for soil smallholder landscapes, policy and market developments are
fertility restoration and make investments in agriculture unattrac- needed to deal with the Matryoshka effect. Desirable shifts in
tive, compromising both the productivity (soil fertility in this case) farming systems can only be stimulated by working on both ends
and the insurance capacity of the agroecosystem (cf. Fig. 6B). The simultaneously. In designing such interventions, operational defi-
buffering effect of communal resources such as forests or natural nitions of system properties such as non-linearity, irreversibility,
grasslands as sources of carbon, nutrients, food, fuel and incomes convergence/divergence and hysteresis are essential to understand
is decreasing as these areas shrink or degrade. Strategies for the the dynamics that govern agroecosystem resilience and
ecological intensification of smallholder systems – such as agroe- transformability.
cology – are urgently needed to propose alternative means to
maintain soil productivity, thereby displacing the minimum and
Acknowledgement
optimum farm sizes to the lower left corner in Fig. 6A (i.e., requir-
ing shorter or no fallow periods). The area available for crop pro-
This research was partially funded by the European Union
duction and the land to labour ratio appeared as consistent
through the project ABACO, Agroecology based aggradation-con-
indicators of resource endowment (cf. Fig. 3). Indicators of perfor-
servation agriculture (DCI-FOOD 2010/230-178).
mance such as per capita income, i.e., the one dollar a day barrier,
were less informative. As farm sizes decline, increasing market ori-
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