3-Global Warming and The Greenhouse Effect

Climate vs.
Weather
• Climate refers to the average weather conditions of a

place over a long period of time.
CHAPTER 3
• Weather, on the other hand, refers to the day-to-day
GLOBAL WARMING AND THE
conditions of earth’s atmosphere at a particular place
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
and time. Weather can be glorious or devastating.
1 ENGR 202 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP

• Weather Climate Atmospheric Structure

• Climate is a long term average of weather (over at least • Troposphere
30 years). It is shaped by global forces that alter the Æ from the ground surface 10-15 km above
energy balance in the atmosphere such as changes in
the sun, tilt of the earth’s axis, amount of sunlight the • Stratosphere
earth reflects back to space, and concentration of Æ 15-50 km above troposphere
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Æ protective ozone layer
• Weather is what the atmosphere does in the short term,
hour-to-hour and day-to-day. Weather is chaotic, which
means even a microscopic disturbance can lead to large-
scale changes.
• The average weather over the course of years reveals a
pattern. That pattern is climate and is much more
predictable than our everyday weather.
Atmosphere Temperature Structure Atmosphere Density and Pressure
• Troposphere • Density and pressure decrease as altitude

Æ decreasing temperature as altitude increases increases
Æ drive substantial vertical and horizontal air
movements and mixing
• Stratosphere
Æ increasing temperature with altitude Æ stable
Æ pollutants diffuse slowly Æ ozone depleting
compounds Æ ozone depletion
James R. Mihelcic, Julie B. Zimmerman, Environmental Engineering: Fundamentals, Sustainability, Design

Atmosphere
78% N2 (mol fraction) the atmosphere contains moisture:
Dry basis 21% O2 Wet basis -- water vapor
0.93% Ar -- liquid drops
0.03% CO2 -- ice crystals
< 0.01% others
change temporally/spatially
responsible to many atmospheric events

Atmosphere Energy
• The earth’s surface then loses its heat again
through rising air currents, radiation, and the
• Energy from the sun is the main driver for our
evaporation of water. Some of this heat passes
climate system.
straight through the atmosphere and back to
• When the energy from the sun reaches the space, but some is absorbed by greenhouse
atmosphere, some is absorbed and some is gases like carbon dioxide, water vapor, methane,
reflected, mainly by clouds. and ozone. Most of the air (nitrogen and oxygen –
• Most of the remaining energy heats the earth’s does not do this.
surface. • If the greenhouse gases didn’t absorb and reemit
heat, we wouldn’t be able to live on earth

Example: Radiative heat transfer from an idealized

Radiative Energy
physical body
Stefan–Boltzmann law An object with a temperature of 20 °C has surface properties
Maximum rate of energy radiated by a body approximate those of an idealized physical body. Calculate the
heat flux from this object, and also calculate the total heat flow
Qmax = ı AT4 rate if the surface area is 0.2 m2.
Qmax – maximum rate of energy radiated (watts)

Temperature T = 20 °C + 273 = 293 K
ı – Stefan–Boltzmann constant (5.67㽢10-8 W/m2-K4)
A – Area (m2) q = ı T4 = (5.67㽢10-8) 㽢 2934 = 418 W/m2
T – absolute temperature of the body (K)
total heat flow rate Q = qA= (418 W/m2) × (0.2 m2) = 83.6 W
Total rate of heat flow Q
q = Heat flux = =
Total surface area A
Example: Estimate the average temperature that the
earth would have if it had no atmosphere.
• The total radiant energy flux from the sun, just outside
the earth‘s atmosphere, is 1.353 kW/m2 (429 Btu/h•ft2)
• The diameter of the earth is 12.75 x 106 m,
• If all the incoming solar energy were absorbed by the
earth, the total heat flow in from the sun would be
Incoming
solar Earth Projected area of the earth
radiation
Outgoing terrestrial radiation

The outward radiation (assuming a zero temperature for • This is approximately 10 °C, or 18°F, below the
outer space), using the surface area of the earth rather observed average surface temperature of the earth,
than the projected area, is which is about 15°C or 59°F.
• The net effect of having an atmosphere is to raise
the average temperature of the earth about 10 °C
(18°F) above the value it would have with no
atmosphere, if the earth absorbed all incoming
sunlight.
Incoming energy = outward radiation • This effect is even more impressive when we
ÎT= consider that not all the incoming solar radiation is
absorbed. The earth reflects roughly 30% of all the
incoming solar radiation back to outer space from
the tops of clouds, icy surfaces, oceans, etc.
(Technically, the earth's albedo is about 0.3.)
Example: What fraction of the outgoing radiation from the
earth is blocked by the atmosphere? • We see that for the earth's surface temperature to
average about 15°C = 59°F, the atmospheric outward
• Assume that 30 percent of the incoming solar radiation is transmission of radiant energy must be (0.606/0.7); or
reflected away 86 percent of the inward transmission of solar energy.
• Use an average surface temperature over the whole • We also see that if something changes this ratio, then
planet of approximately 15°C = 59°F = 288.15 K. the earth will balance these energy flows by changing
the average surface temperature.
• Then setting incoming approximately equal to outgoing
• The possibility that humans may be doing one or more
things to change that ratio is the cause of our concern
with global warming

Absorptive properties of
the atmosphere as a
function of wavelength,
and approximate
emission spectra of sun
and earth.
• O2 and O3 block all

light with wavelengths
less than about 0.28
μm
• CO2 blocks all light
with wavelengths more
than about 15 μm
De Nevers, N., "Air Pollution Control Engineering", 2nd
ed., McGraw-Hill, 2000.
• The infrared atmospheric window refers to a region of
the infrared spectrum where there is relatively little
absorption of terrestrial thermal radiation by • The window plays an important role in the atmospheric
atmospheric gases. greenhouse effect by maintaining the balance between
incoming solar radiation and outgoing IR to space.
• Without the infrared atmospheric window, the earth
would become much too warm to support life
• In the earth's atmosphere this window is roughly the
region between 8 and 12 ȝm, although it can be
narrowed or closed at times and places of high
humidity because of the strong absorption in the water
vapor continuum or because of blocking by clouds.
https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/absorb

Simplified view of the interactions and feedback loops

Greenhouse Effect
involved in the global warming problem
• If we were to increase the concentration of gases such
as CO2, CH4, N2O, and H2O in the atmosphere Îmore
absorption Î making the atmosphere's ratio of
outgoing to incoming transparency decline.
• Threatened by highly unreactive gases containing
bonds between fluorine and carbon, sulfur or nitrogen
Î window would become less transparent
• In turn, the average temperature of the earth would rise,
thus producing the so-called greenhouse effect.
• The group consisting of CO2, CH4, N2O, etc. are
collectively called greenhouse gases. De Nevers, N., "Air Pollution Control Engineering", 2nd ed., McGraw-Hill, 2000.
23 24
ENGR 202 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP ENGR 202 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP
Estimated global flows and reservoirs of carbon Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Recent history of the

CO2 content of the
global atmosphere
De Nevers, N., "Air Pollution Control Engineering", 2nd ed., McGraw-Hill, 2000.
The flow units are 109 metric tons (Gt)/yr; the reservoir units are Gt
Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

• Rates of incoming and outgoing radiation are equal Î
• If more greenhouse gas is added to atmosphere, some
net energy flux = 0
of the outgoing radiation to space will be absorbed by
that gas Î net decrease of outgoing radiation per unit • More GHGs Î incoming solar radiation > outgoing
of area Î ǻ qout radiation
• Any such change in the average net radiation at the
tropopause Î radiative forcing, ǻ F
Tropopause is the boundary in the

Earth's atmosphere between the
troposphere and the stratosphere.
27 Edward S. Rubin, “Introduction to Engineering and the Environment”, 2001.
ENGR 202 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP

Net forcing Î ǻ F = ǻ qout - ǻ qin
ǻ F (W/m2) = ǻ qout
• The term radiative forcing is used

because any change in the net
radiation balance will force the
climate system to readjust so as to
ultimately restore equilibrium.
Edward S. Rubin, “Introduction to Engineering and the Environment”, 2001.
• Add aerosols Î increase albedo, reflect more

incoming radiation Î net decrease in heat flux

Example: Radiative forcing from CO2 addition. • Radiative forcing V.S. concentration
An increase in atmosphere CO2 concentration reduces

the outgoing infrared radiation at the tropopause from
235 W/m2 to 233 W/m2. The incoming solar radiation and
albedo do not change. Calculate the radiative forcing.
No change in incoming radiation Î ǻ qin = 0
Net change in outgoing radiation Î ǻ qout = 235-233= 2 W/m2
Net forcing ǻ F = ǻ qout - ǻ qin = 2 W/m2
Edward S. Rubin, “Introduction to Engineering and the Environment”, 2001.

Example: Radiative forcing from a doubling of CO2. • Temperature changes from radiative forcing
Estimate the radiative forcing that would result from a

doubling of the 1992 CO2 concentration of 335 ppmv. ǻ Te = Ȗ (ǻ Frad)
Double the concentration Î CO2 = 355 × 2 = 710 ppmv
ǻ Te Î Temperature change
Check table above Æ Within 1,000 ppmv
Ȗ Î climate change sensitivity factor
ǻ Frad Î radiative forcing
ǻ FCO2 = 6.3 ln (C/C0) = 6.3 ln (710/355) = 4.37 W/m2

Example: Temperature change from a doubling of CO2. Indicators of Global Warming
In previous example, the radiative forcing from a doubling (1) Global temperature rise
of the CO2 concentrations was estimated to be 4.37 W/m2,
what is the resulting increase in equilibrium surface • Earth’s average surface temperature has risen about 0.9
temperature if the climate sensitivity factor is 0.6 °C/W-m-2? degrees Celsius since the late 19th century, a change driven
largely by increased CO2 and other anthropogenic
ǻ Te = Ȗ (ǻ Frad) emissions into the atmosphere.
• Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years
= 0.6 h 4.37 = 2.6 °C

(2) Warming oceans
• The oceans have absorbed much of this increased
heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of
ocean showing warming of 0.302 degrees
Fahrenheit since 1969
• The warming of the oceans has widespread effects. -
Æ It causes marine heat waves that kill fish and
coral reefs, fuels hurricanes and coastal downpours,
spawns harmful toxin-producing algal blooms
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/GlobalWarming/page2.php

(3) Shrinking ice sheets, Glacial retreat Athabasca Glacier at the Columbia Icefields in
the Canadian Rockies of Alberta
Mountain glaciers all over

the world are in retreat.
Saskatchewan Glacier is a
major outlet glacier of the
Columbia Icefield in Alberta.
https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/glacier
https://glacierchange.wordpress.com/2013/02/28/saskatchewan-glacier-retreat-alberta/
(4) Sea level rise
• Melting ice sheets and glaciers
• Expansion of seawater with temperature increase
• Global sea level rose about 8 inches in the last century. The
rate in the last two decades is nearly double that of the last
century.
https://www.climatecentral.org/outreach/alert-archive/2016Ice.php?market=DC
https://sites.google.com/a/gsbi.org/gvcm30
1/ocean-conservation/global-warming
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
(5) Extreme weather

• Heat waves
• Drought
• Heavy downpours
Æ The increase in evaporation (fairly uniform
globally) implies an increase in precipitation (not
uniform), because the atmosphere can’t store water
vapor indefinitely
• Floods
• Hurricanes
• Increased winter storm in Easter North America
https://www.climateemergencyinstitute.com/uploads/Extreme.png

Estimated change in seawater pH caused by human-
(6) Ocean acidification
created CO2 between the 1700s and the 1990s
• Ocean acidification is the ongoing decrease in the pH of
the Earth's oceans, caused by the uptake of CO2 from the
atmosphere.
• Seawater is slightly basic (meaning pH > 7), and ocean
acidification involves a shift towards pH-neutral conditions
rather than a transition to acidic conditions (pH < 7).
• An estimated 30–40% of the carbon dioxide from human
activity released into the atmosphere dissolves into
oceans, rivers and lakes. Some of it reacts with the water
to form carbonic acid.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification#:~:text=Ocean%20acidification%20is%20the%20ongoing,conditions%20(pH%20%3C%207).

• Increasing acidity is thought to have a range of potentially Other opinions

harmful consequences for marine organisms such as • “Medieval Climate Optimum”: 1000 years ago
depressing metabolic rates and immune responses in • Warm period
some organisms and causing coral bleaching • Colonization of Greenland
• “Little ice age”: between 200 and 500 years ago
• “Earth temperature recovery” for the past 200 to 300
years.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-
planetary-sciences/medieval-warm-period

Assessment of Emission Emission factor
Æ represent the ratio of the quantity of air pollutant
emissions produced to the amount of pollutant-
producing activity performed
E Æ emission in mass or mass per time

A Æ measure of the emission activity
such as liters of fuel used
EF Æ emission factor

Example:
Consider an industrial boiler that burns 180,000 L • Various GHGs Æ CO2, CH4, NOx, …
of distillate oil per day. The CO2 emission factor
for industrial boilers that burn oil distillate is 0.6 • Global warming potential (GWP)
kg CO2 per m3 of oil that is burned. Æ compare the emission of different GHGs to a
common constituent
• CO2 equivalents
• Carbon (C) equivalents
A Æ 180,000 L = 180 m3 oil
EF Æ 0.6 kg CO per m3 of oil
E = 108 kg CO2 / day

James R. Mihelcic, Julie B. Zimmerman, Environmental Engineering: Fundamentals, Sustainability, Design James R. Mihelcic, Julie B. Zimmerman, Environmental Engineering: Fundamentals, Sustainability, Design
Example: Greenhouse gas emission
The US greenhouse gas emissions reported in the

year 2010 were 5706.4 teragrams (Tg) CO2e of
CO2, 666.5 Tg CO2e of methane (CH4), and 306.2
Tg CO2e of N2O. How many gigagrams (Gg) of
CH4 and N2O were emitted in 2010?
1000 gigagrams = 1 teragram
giga Æ 109
tera Æ 1012

Reducing GHG Emissions
For methane:
CO2 emissions Population GDP Energy use

= × ×
per year per year per capita per GDP
2.67 × 104 Gg methane
CO2 emissions
For N2O: ×
per unit energy
Closely related to
technology and
technological
change
1.03 × 103 Gg N2O

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Climate vs.

• Climate refers to the average weather conditions of a

1 ENGR 202 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP

• Weather  Climate Atmospheric Structure

• Troposphere • Density and pressure decrease as altitude

James R. Mihelcic, Julie B. Zimmerman, Environmental Engineering: Fundamentals, Sustainability, Design

7 ENGR 202 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP

9 ENGR 202 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP

Example: Radiative heat transfer from an idealized

Qmax – maximum rate of energy radiated (watts)

Outgoing terrestrial radiation

17 ENGR 202 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP

• O2 and O3 block all

21 ENGR 202 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP

Simplified view of the interactions and feedback loops

Recent history of the

Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

Tropopause is the boundary in the

27 Edward S. Rubin, “Introduction to Engineering and the Environment”, 2001.

ENGR 202 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP

• The term radiative forcing is used

• Add aerosols Î increase albedo, reflect more

29 ENGR 202 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP

An increase in atmosphere CO2 concentration reduces

No change in incoming radiation Î ǻ qin = 0

Net change in outgoing radiation Î ǻ qout = 235-233= 2 W/m2

Net forcing ǻ F = ǻ qout - ǻ qin = 2 W/m2

Edward S. Rubin, “Introduction to Engineering and the Environment”, 2001.

Estimate the radiative forcing that would result from a

33 ENGR 202 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP

Example: Temperature change from a doubling of CO2. Indicators of Global Warming

35 ENGR 202 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP

37 ENGR 202 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP

Mountain glaciers all over

(5) Extreme weather

43 ENGR 202 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP

45 ENGR 202 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP

• Increasing acidity is thought to have a range of potentially Other opinions

47 ENGR 202 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP

E Æ emission in mass or mass per time

James R. Mihelcic, Julie B. Zimmerman, Environmental Engineering: Fundamentals, Sustainability, Design

E = 108 kg CO2 / day

Example: Greenhouse gas emission

The US greenhouse gas emissions reported in the

James R. Mihelcic, Julie B. Zimmerman, Environmental Engineering: Fundamentals, Sustainability, Design

55 ENGR 202 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP

CO2 emissions Population GDP Energy use

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• Weather Climate Atmospheric Structure