Rainfall Analysis

CET 304 - Hydrology
Rainfall Analysis
Dr. Mahesh K. Jat

Professor
Department of Civil Engineering
Malaviya National Institute of Technology Jaipur
Estimating Rainfall Quantity for Design
The design of water management systems is based more on

extreme values than on average values.
If the mean value is used in the design of an irrigation system

then on average, in one out of every two years there will not be
enough water to meet the demands of the crop and yield will
be reduced.
If the mean is used in drainage design, then one out of every

two years the area will be flooded.
It is better to use design values with lower associated risk.

Objective of Rainfall Analysis
• Determination of design rainfall duration and intensity -

design rainfall ranges from probable maximum precipitation
(PMP) or rainfall of a particular return period
• Develop design runoff hydrograph – includes peak flow rate

and runoff volume to size reservoir and design spillway and
other pertinent structures
3
Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)
Probable maximum precipitation : Theoretically the
greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is
physically possible over a given storm area at a particular
geographical location at a certain time of the year.
Design Flow
• Design flood Discharge (design flow) - peak flow rate
governing the design of relevant hydraulic structures
• Design flood Hydrograph
- time-flow history of a design flood
4
Rainfall patterns in the India
Global precipitation pattern
Rainfall Intensity
➢ The Intensity of Rainfall is to be used in computing the design run-off is a
function of time of concentration and the frequency of occurrence of the
storm.
➢ The frequency of occurrence has to be selected by the designers at the start
of the design exercise. The cost of the system depends upon this decision.
Considering a rarer storm will increase the cost of the system because the
intensity of rainfall will be high.
➢ A point to point design of the Water Drainage System requires repeated

selection of the Intensity of Rainfall for increasing Concentration Time
intervals.
➢ This is possible if the relationship of the Intensity of Rainfall with the
concentration Time for a given Frequency of Occurrence is known for the
particular catchment.
➢ This relationship is known as Intensity – Duration – Frequency (IDF)
relationship and can be expressed in the form of a formula or in the form of a
graphic curve.
➢ Such a relationship can be developed by conducting an analysis of past
rainfall records for this area under study.
7
D-A-D relationships
•
10/18/2021
D-A-D relationships
• Depth-Area-Duration Curves
10/18/2021
Frequency of point Rainfall
•
• T = represents the average interval between the occurences of
a rainfall of magnitude equal to or greater than X.
• For Example: T(x>=20cm in 24hour) = 10 years

• It implies that on an average Rainfall magnitudes (x) equal to
or greater than 20cm in 24 hours occurs
• Once in 10 years
• 10 times in 100 years
• So the Probability P(x>=20cm in 24hour) = 1/10 = 0.1

• And the Probability of not occurring in given years
• => q = (1-P) = 0.9
•
Example 1
• Development of Intensity Duration Curve
• Maximum Intensity, Maximum depth, Duration Relation
Example 1
• Development of Intensity Duration Curve
• Plot of Max. Depth vs Duration
• Plot of Max. Intensity vs Duration
Example 2
• Development of Depth Area Curve
• Given Isohyetal map
• Storm centre details
Isohyet
(mm) 57 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10
Enclosed Area
(km2) 55 310 1300 2060 2700 2955 3600 4030 4800 6000
STORM CENTRE
Example 2
• Development of Depth-Area Curve
Isohyet Average Average

(mm) Isohyet Enclosed Increment rainfall
[Rainfall value Area al Area Incre. Vol. Total Volume depth
depth] (mm) (km2) (km2) (km2.mm) (km2.mm) (mm)
57 57 55 55 3135 3135 57
50 53.5 310 255 13643 16778 54
45 47.5 1300 990 47025 63803 49
40 42.5 2060 760 32300 96103 47
35 37.5 2700 640 24000 120103 44
30 32.5 2955 255 8288 128390 43
25 27.5 3600 645 17738 146128 41
20 22.5 4030 430 9675 155803 39
15 17.5 4800 770 13475 169278 35
10 12.5 6000 1200 15000 184278 31
Example 2
Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Analysis
• For many hydrologic Projects design first step is the
determination of the rainfall event to be used.
• The rainfall event is hypothetical, and is usually termed the

design storm event. The most common approach of
determining the design storm event involves determination of
a relationship between rainfall intensity (or depth), duration,
and the frequency (or return period) appropriate for the facility
and site location.
Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Analysis
• The rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) relationship
is one of the most commonly used tools in water resources
engineering, either for planning, designing and operating of
water resource projects, or for various engineering projects
against floods.
• The establishment of such relationships was done as early

as in 1932 (Bernard, 1932).
• Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationship

comprises the estimates of rainfall intensities of different
durations and recurrence intervals.
Design Storm : IDF formulas
The IDF formulas are the empirical equations representing a

relationship among maximum rainfall intensity (as dependant
variable) and other parameters of interest such as rainfall
duration and frequency (as independent variables).
• Methods of plotting positions can also be used to determine the design

storm depths.
• Most of these methods are empirical. If n is the total number of values
to be plotted and m is the rank of a value in a list ordered by
descending magnitude, the exceedance probability of the mth largest
value, xm, is , for large n, shown in the following table.
Plotting position formula
METHODS OF RAINFALL ANALYSIS
IDF RELATIONSHIPS
A method which uses the annual maximum magnitudes of rainfall is also

available for rainfall analysis. The same is termed as Annual Maxima Method. 22
IDF RELATIONSHIPS
The constants ‘a’ and ‘n’ can be determined as intercept on Y axis and slope
of the line respectively if we have a number of pairs of values for ‘t’ and ‘i’. A
straight line can then be fitted to the points.
In India, IMD make available rainfall data at 15 min intervals or 1 hr intervals.
The same can also be used for rainfall analysis. 23
IDF RELATIONSHIPS : METHODOLOGY
➢ A single Hyetogram shows cumulative rainfall over a day.

➢ The plot can be subdivided into a number of continuous segments during which
rainfall is present.
➢ Segments of the plot when there is no rainfall, or negligible rainfall can be omitted.
➢ Thus a single plot of Hyetogram for a day will yield a number of individual storms of
various durations.
24
Single storm of 60 min

duration has been
further subdivided in the
last two columns of the
table into 12 individual
storms of 5 min to 60
min durations with their
specific rainfall
intensities expressed in
mm/hr.
The past data of Hyetograms will thus yield several such individual storms of various durations
and intensities.
25

Even if the past data consists of records of either 15 min rainfall or hourly rainfall,
similar tables can be prepared. Table 2.2 shows a typical example of conversion of a
4 hr rainfall stretch into individual storms of 1 to 4 hr durations and their specific
intensities (mm/hr).
26

Next Step : is to prepare a two-way frequency table by counting them according to
their durations and intensities.
27

Intensities and durations of individual storms need to be now related to their
frequencies of occurrence (Return Periods).
➢ For example, if the data represented by Table is for past 38 years, Intensities and Durations
for storms with frequencies of 2 in 1 year, 1 in 1 year, 1 in 2 years, 1 in 5 years, 1 in 10
years, 1 in 15 years, and 1 in 30 years can now be interpolated from the above mentioned
tables.
➢ The storms with frequencies listed above will occur 76, 38, 19, 7.6, 3.8, 2.53 and 1.27
times in the above frequency tables during the period of 38 years.
➢ As an example, considering the frequency of 2 times in 1 year, intensities of rainfall were

interpolated for various durations of storm from 60 min (1 hr) to 1440 min (24 hrs).
➢ It is seen that the storm with frequency of 2 times in a year will occur 76 times in 38 years
and if it has a duration of 60 min (1 hr), its intensity lies between the range of 40 mm/hr
(92 times) to 45 mm/hr (62 times).
➢ Similarly, the intensities of rainfall for the 2 times in a year frequency for durations upto
1440 min (24 hr) can be interpolated wherever the occurrence of the storm is 76 times.
28
The magnitudes of rainfall intensities for various durations of storms with various frequencies
of occurrence ranging between 2 times in a year to once in 30 years were generated.
It is now necessary to fit the following equation to the data given in Tables
For fitting a straight line to the data, plots of log i versus log t can now be produced on
log -log paper one each for various frequencies of occurrence and constants ‘a’ and ‘n’
can be determined by reading intercepts on Y axis and slopes of the straight lines.
30
31
METHOD BASED ON RELATIONSHIP -
Sometimes if a trial value of ‘b’ is added to ‘t’ in the previous equation i.e.,
then a better fitting straight line can be obtained, which means better values of
constants.
Various values of ‘b’ can be tried till the best fitting straight line can be drawn
through the points. This will lead to determination of values of a, t, and n in the
above equation suitable for a given frequency of occurrence.
32

METHOD BASED ON RELATIONSHIP -
Further this equation can be transformed as -
➢ A direct plot of ‘i’ against ‘t’ on log – log paper for various frequencies of
occurrence produces curves that can be converted into straight lines through the
addition of trial values of ‘d’ to the observed values of ‘t’.
➢ To determine ‘C’ and ‘m’ the derived values, of ‘A’ are plotted on log-log paper against ‘T’
for the frequencies of occurrence studied.
33

Method based on Least Squares Principle -
It is possible to consider a range of frequencies and fit the above equation to the data with a set
of common values of C, m, d and n.
For other ranges of frequencies there will be different sets of constants. This way the fit is
better than considering a common set of values of C, m, d and n for all frequencies together.
34
METHOD BASED ON ANNUAL MAXIMA
➢ It is necessary to have magnitudes of yearly maximum rainfall depths

corresponding to storm durations of say 1 to 24 hrs for all past years for which
data is available.
➢ One has to go through hourly magnitudes of rainfall for each past year and
identify the maximum rainfall in continuous 1 hr duration to obtain rainfall
depths and arrange them in a decreasing order of magnitudes.
➢ The exercise has to be repeated for other continuous durations such as 2 hr, 4 hr,
8 hr and 24 hr.
35
Methodology for IDF Analysis
• When local rainfall data are available, IDF curves can be developed using
frequency analysis. Steps for IDF analysis are:
– Select a design storm duration D, say D = 24 hours.
– Collect the annual maximum rainfall depth of the selected duration
from n years of historic data.
– Fit a Probability Distribution Function (PDF) or Cumulative
Distribution Function (CDF) to each group comprised of the rainfall
data values for a specific duration.
– Determine the probability distribution of the D-hr annual maximum
rainfall. The mean and standard deviation of the D-hr annual maximum
rainfall are estimated.
Methodology for IDF Analysis
– Calculate the D-hr T-yr design storm depth XT by using the
following frequency factor equation:
X T =  + KT 
where ,  and KT are mean, standard deviation and
frequency factor, respectively. Note that the frequency
factor is distribution-specific.
– Calculate the average intensity iT ( D) = X T / D and repeat

Steps 1 through 4 for various design storm durations.
– Construct the IDF curves.
METHOD BASED ONANNUAL MAXIMA
Table 2.26 shows the 38 year data for a

typical meteorological station arranged
as explained above.
➢ The data series thus obtained are then
fitted with a probability density function.
➢ The extreme value Gumbel Type-I
distribution is commonly used for rainfall
analysis for a given rainfall duration ‘td’.
➢ The extreme value type-I distribution for
annul maximum rainfall depth is
expressed by the following equation:
38
IDF RELATIONSHIPS : METHODOLOGY - METHOD BASED ON ANNUAL MAXIMA

The method is applied for rainfall analysis of the data shown in Table 2.26. The mean and
standard deviation values are computed and are presented in Table below.
Values of K are computed for various frequencies of occurrence and are presented in Table as-
Rainfall depths are calculated using equation 2.43 and using proper K value for various
frequencies of occurrence for various durations.
The depths are converted to rainfall intensities by dividing the rainfall depths (mm) by durations
(hr).
Thus sets of values of rainfall intensities are generated for corresponding sets of durations and it
is then possible to draw IDF Curves using the above sets of values. Figure 2.6 shows the IDF 39
Curves based on the above analysis.
40
VARIATION IN RAINFALL INTENSITIES
➢ IDF Curves indicate the average rainfall intensities over a given duration of the storm
for a given frequency of occurrence.
➢ In a realistic situation, the intensity of rainfall over the duration of the storm is not
constant but varies.
➢ There are a number of methods to account for this variation.
➢ One of the favourite methods to recognize the variation of the intensity of rainfall over
the duration of a storm is to use Chicago Curves.
➢ They are named after the city in USA where they were first used in design.
➢ The concept of Chicago Curves can be used only in a sophisticated computerized

design of Storm Water Drainage System under dynamic conditions.
➢ It is necessary to have access to commercial software for use in this design exercise.
41
A typical Chicago Curve assumes that the rainfall intensity initially increases,
reaches the peak and then decreases over the duration of the storm but the total
amount of rainfall over the duration of the storm equals the total rainfall with
constant average intensity shown by the IDF curve for the same duration of the storm
for a given frequency of occurrence.
42
IDF RELATIONSHIPS FOR CITIES IN INDIA
IDF relationships developed by a number of researchers for Indian Cities are available
in literature.
43
IDF RELATIONSHIPS FOR CITIES IN INDIA Chennai
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
Rambabu et al have analysed rainfall records for 42

stations in the country and have obtained the values of ‘C’,
‘m’, ‘d’ and ‘n’ in the following equation.
51
SPATIAL VARIATION OF RAINFALL
➢ In smaller cities and towns, rainfall records are normally available for a single
location where facilities may have been created by the Meteorological Dept. to
measure rainfall.
➢ In larger cities and Metropolises, such facilities may be available at more than
one location.
➢ In larger cities and Metropolises, it is desirable to recognise spatial variation of
rainfall intensities over the areas and use separate sets of IDF Curves for
different locations in the city as against a single set of IDF Curves for smaller
cities.
➢ IDF relationships at multiple locations can be developed and used in the design
of the Storm Water Drainage System for larger cities.
52
Fact Finding Committee of Mumbai Floods on page 48 recommends design intensities

of rainfall as follows:
a) Small Catchments – 50 mm/hr, 2 in 1 year return period as per BRIMSTOWAD

b) River Channel Areas – 70 mm/hr, 1 in 10 year return period
c) River bank Areas and CD works on major roads – 80 mm/hr, 1 in 25 years return
Period
FFC recommends on page 257, design rainfall intensities as follows:

- Major Corridors of city – 1 in 100 years return period
- Other major roads – 1 in 25 years return period
FFC recommends on page 258, design rainfall intensity as follows:
- River Bank (Occasional flood spread) areas as a risk zone and for all CD
works onmain through arteries of traffic – 100mm/hr, 1 in 100 years return period.
53
ESTIMATION OF DESIGN RUNOFF
Procedure for Converting Daily Rainfall to Short Duration

Rainfall
If only daily rainfall is available, then the rainfall estimates corresponding to
duration from 1 to 18 hours is converted into ratios with respect to 24 hours
rainfall. The averaged values of ratios for various durations for converting 24
hour rainfall into short durations can be obtained from CWC.
Ratio for converting 24-h rainfall into short duration
Durations
1 2 3 4 5 6 9 12 18 24
(hr)
Ratio 0.31 0.49 0.56 0.59 0.65 0.69 0.77 0.84 0.93 1.0
54
Procedure for Converting Point Rainfall to Areal Rainfall
➢ For smaller areas less than a few square miles, areal and point rainfalls
are nearly same.
➢ But for larger areas it is necessary to average the rainfalls at more than
one station owing to the fact that the rainfall normally does not occur
uniformly over the area in a given storm.
➢ The CWC, (1978) analyzed 69 rain gauges installed at various places.
➢ On the basis of the results so obtained for durations of 1-hour and 3-
hours, following empirical relation has been established:
RA/ RP = 1.05 x e-(A0.48/20T0.56)
T = Storm duration in hours

RA = Areal rainfall for duration of T hours over a catchment
RP = Point rainfall of T hour duration
A = Catchment area in Km2
55
RA/ RP = 1.05 x e-(A0.48/20T0.56)

Using the above equation, the Area Reduction Factor (ARF) in percentage at
different intervals of catchment area and for 1 hr, 3 hr, 6 hr and 12 hr
duration storms are given below
Area Reduction Factor for converting Point Rainfall into Areal Rainfall
Area Reduction Factor (%)

Area in Km2
1 hr 3 hr 6 hr 12 hr
50 76 88 93 97
100 67 82 89 94
150 60 78 86 91
200 56 74 83 90
250 52 72 81 88
56
Time distribution of storms

Temporal pattern of various storms in different regions was studied by
CWC, based on data available from rain gauges. Hourly time distribution
coefficients for areal rainfall for design storms duration 1 hr to 6 hr are
estimated by CWC for different regions. For example -
Distribution Coefficient
Storm duration Distribution coefficient up to the hour
(hr) 1 hr 2 hr 3 hr 4 hr 5 hr 6 hr
1 1
2 0.59 1
3 0.36 0.77 1
4 0.23 0.59 0.84 1
5 0.17 0.56 0.70 0.88 1
6 0.14 0.35 0.59 0.79 0.90 1
57
Design loss rate
CWC has recommended use of a design loss rate for estimation of
abstraction which needs to be deducted from rainfall to arrive at
runoff.
Design loss rate equals to 1.52 mm/ hr (0.06”/hr).
Design storm duration

The duration of the storm which causes the maximum peak in a drainage basin
is called the ‘Design Storm Duration’. The CWC, has developed following
relationship between design storm duration (TD) and ‘tp’ with basin shape
factor (J) as a parameter by regression analysis:
TD = 1.323 tp0.7718J-0.6013
58
Base flow
It is observed that for big floods, the contribution due to base flow
is very small as compared to the surface runoff. In the region a
base flow of 5 cusecs/sq. miles is adopted for computing the
design flood.
59
Design of Drainage System
60
Estimation of Design Discharge/Runoff
Runoff Analysis
Estimating runoff is defined as the process of determining the volume or
peak rate of runoff from a given watershed for the storm being designed
for, or the safe yield expected from the watershed.
Estimation of Design Peak Runoff

There are a number of methods used to estimate runoff.
➢ Rational Method
➢ Cook’s Method
➢ Hydrologic Soil Cover Complex Number Method(NRCS)
➢ Table Method, and
➢ Detailed Physically based Models
61
Runoff Analysis : Rational Method
This is the most widely used method for the estimation of peak rate
discharge from small watersheds, because of its simplicity and ease
of application. It is expressed by the equation:
CIA
Q=
360
Where
Q = Peak rate of runoff in cum/sec for the given frequency of rainfall
C = Rational runoff coefficient having values ranging from zero to one
depending upon watershed conditions
I = Intensity in mm/hr for design frequency and for duration equal to time
of concentration
A = Area of watershed in hectares
62
Runoff Analysis : Rational Method

Methodology
Step 1: Identify the four rainiest months and determine the peak from
the given daily rainfall data for 35 years.
Step 2: Determine the intensity of the rainfall on a 2-h/ 4-h basis
KT a
I=
(t + b) n
Step 3: Determine the areas under various categories, such as
residential blocks, forest etc., and denote them as A1, A2……. etc.,
Step 4: Determine the value of C from depending upon the category

identified. In case of areas with mixed categories the weighted C is
determined from the following relationship
A1C1 + A2C 2 + ..............AnCn
C=
A1 + A2. + ..............An CIA
Q=
Step 5: Determine the runoff, Q, from the relationship, 360 63
Runoff Analysis : Modified Rational Method

In the modified version of the Rational Formula, a storage coefficient
is included to account for a recession time larger than the time the
hydrograph takes to rise. The Modified Rational Formula
Q = Cs * C * I * A/360
The maximum runoff rate in a catchment is reached when all parts of

the watershed are contributing to the outflow. This happens when the
time of concentration, the time after which the runoff rate equals the
excess rainfall rate, is reached. The Kirpich/Ramser formula can be
used to calculate the time of concentration:
tc = 0.0195 * L0.77 * S-0.385
Where,
tc = Time of concentration [min]
L = Length of main river [m]
S = Distance weighted channel slope [m/m] 64
Runoff Analysis : Modified Rational Method
65
Runoff Analysis : SCS CN Method
Theory of SCS Curve Number Method
The method is particularly suitable for small un-gauged catchments.

This method assumes that before runoff generation from the area,
the initial losses are satisfied and the ratio of direct runoff to the
rainfall depth minus the initial losses is equal to (P-Q-Ia)/ S.
Taking Ia = 0.2, the relationship changed into

=
66
Runoff Analysis : SCS CN Method
The retention capacity of the soil i.e. S is determined by using the curve
number, developed by US Soil Conservation Service, given as under
Where, CN is the curve number which depends on landuse pattern,

treatments, hydrologic condition and hydrologic soil group of catchment
67
Design of Drainage
If the peak design discharge Qp for a drain is known, the required sewer
dimensions can be computed by using Manning’s formula such that -
the minimum required diameter dr of the circular drain will be -
where kn 1 for SI units and 1.486 for English units. If the Darcy-Wesibach
formula is used,
68

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CET 304 - Hydrology

Dr. Mahesh K. Jat

The design of water management systems is based more on

If the mean value is used in the design of an irrigation system

If the mean is used in drainage design, then one out of every

It is better to use design values with lower associated risk.

• Determination of design rainfall duration and intensity -

• Develop design runoff hydrograph – includes peak flow rate

➢ A point to point design of the Water Drainage System requires repeated

• For Example: T(x>=20cm in 24hour) = 10 years

• So the Probability P(x>=20cm in 24hour) = 1/10 = 0.1

Isohyet Average Average

• The rainfall event is hypothetical, and is usually termed the

• The establishment of such relationships was done as early

• Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationship

The IDF formulas are the empirical equations representing a

• Methods of plotting positions can also be used to determine the design

A method which uses the annual maximum magnitudes of rainfall is also

IDF RELATIONSHIPS : METHODOLOGY

➢ A single Hyetogram shows cumulative rainfall over a day.

IDF RELATIONSHIPS : METHODOLOGY

Single storm of 60 min

IDF RELATIONSHIPS : METHODOLOGY

IDF RELATIONSHIPS : METHODOLOGY

IDF RELATIONSHIPS : METHODOLOGY

➢ As an example, considering the frequency of 2 times in 1 year, intensities of rainfall were

METHOD BASED ON RELATIONSHIP -

IDF RELATIONSHIPS : METHODOLOGY

Further this equation can be transformed as -

IDF RELATIONSHIPS : METHODOLOGY

METHOD BASED ON ANNUAL MAXIMA

➢ It is necessary to have magnitudes of yearly maximum rainfall depths

– Calculate the average intensity iT ( D) = X T / D and repeat

Table 2.26 shows the 38 year data for a

IDF RELATIONSHIPS : METHODOLOGY - METHOD BASED ON ANNUAL MAXIMA

➢ There are a number of methods to account for this variation.

➢ The concept of Chicago Curves can be used only in a sophisticated computerized

Rambabu et al have analysed rainfall records for 42

Fact Finding Committee of Mumbai Floods on page 48 recommends design intensities

a) Small Catchments – 50 mm/hr, 2 in 1 year return period as per BRIMSTOWAD

FFC recommends on page 257, design rainfall intensities as follows:

Procedure for Converting Daily Rainfall to Short Duration

Ratio for converting 24-h rainfall into short duration

RA/ RP = 1.05 x e-(A0.48/20T0.56)

T = Storm duration in hours

RA/ RP = 1.05 x e-(A0.48/20T0.56)

Area Reduction Factor (%)

Time distribution of storms

Design loss rate equals to 1.52 mm/ hr (0.06”/hr).

Design storm duration

Estimation of Design Peak Runoff

Runoff Analysis : Rational Method

Runoff Analysis : Rational Method

Step 2: Determine the intensity of the rainfall on a 2-h/ 4-h basis

Step 4: Determine the value of C from depending upon the category

Runoff Analysis : Modified Rational Method

The maximum runoff rate in a catchment is reached when all parts of

Runoff Analysis : Modified Rational Method

Runoff Analysis : SCS CN Method

Theory of SCS Curve Number Method

The method is particularly suitable for small un-gauged catchments.

Taking Ia = 0.2, the relationship changed into

Runoff Analysis : SCS CN Method