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Civil Engineering Decision and Systems Analysis
Civil Engineering Decision and Systems Analysis
CE 31600
• It is a coordinated set of procedures that can be used to address issues of engineering design,
project planning and management.
• The models also assist us in developing policy for the systems. They consider both technological
and economic factors. Principles of engineering are combined with principles of economics to
achieve optimal solutions.
TYPES OF MODELS
• Iconic Models: These are physically built prototypes such as paper airplanes, model cities and
villages, model cars etc.
• Participatory Models: Role plays, monopoly, chess, war games, fire drills, flight simulators etc.
• Mathematical Models: A set of mathematical equations used to describe the system. For
example, finite element models describe the behavior of structures; kinematic wave equations
describe the flow of water; econometric models describe the current economic conditions.
Mathematical models are built using differential equations to explain and predict natural
phenomena given some initial conditions. They are called descriptive models. For a given set
of input data and initial conditions, these models offer a description of the outputs of the system
through time. For instance, species growth models predict the growth of a species given its initial
population and growth parameters. The advent of modern computers has made it possible to
develop global models that mimic natural phenomena. The global climate models, for instance,
are a set of physics based equations that simulate the climate using some initial conditions.
Since World War II, the focus of mathematical modeling has shifted towards the science of
decision-making and policy development. This formed the evolution of prescriptive models
that prescribe a course of action, a design or a policy using the mathematics of decision-making.
Prescriptive models have cost, and are driven by the motive to maximize or minimize an
objective. They allocate resources (broadly classified into labor, power, money, and material) in
an effective manner. They are also called optimization models due to their best outcome
(optimal) feature. Descriptive models are often a part of prescriptive models in simulations.
Deterministic Stochastic
Prescriptive Linear Programming (widely used) Stochastic Programming
Integer Programming (parameters are random variables)
Multiobjective Programming
Dynamic Programming
Descriptive Differential Equations Stochastic differential equations (dif-
(Applied math and calculus using de- ferential equations + random param-
rived parameters and rate constants, eters)
initial conditions) Queueing theory
Can be linear or non-linear Monte Carlo simulations that gener-
ate realistic events and system re-
sponses
• Careful observation and formulation of the problems and gathering relevant data.
• Objectives must be consistent with the overall goals of the company. Profit-maximization,
cost-minimization, societal benefit etc.
The OR team needs a good handle on data sources. Often, much of the data may be “soft,” i.e.,
rough estimates based on educated guesses.
Decision Variables: x1 , x2 , · · · xn are the values for the quantifiable decisions to be made.
Constraints: Restrictions on the values that can be assigned to the decision variables expressed by
equalities or inequalities.
Determining the parameters require careful study of the problem and gathering required data. These
values are mostly rough estimates for most real-world problems. Since there is uncertainty in these
values, it is important to perform sensitivity analysis that informs us as to how the solution will
change with changing parameters. One can develop multiple models to represent the same system.
Each model answers specific questions.
Because mathematical models are idealized representations of the real-world, we have to make
simplified assumptions to make the model tractable. Model testing and validation stages help in
improving the model construction. There is always a trade-off between precision of the model and the
tractability of the model.
The solution has to be Satisficing = Satisfactory + Optimizing , a term first coined by Herbert
Simon (Nobel Prize winner in economics).
Establish minimum satisfactory levels of performance in various areas based on past performance or on
what the competition is achieving. “Optimizing is the science of ultimate, Satisficing is the art of
feasible.”
We should also focus on Post Optimality analysis that involve developing what-if scenarios to test
the outcomes under different conditions and changes. In other words, a sensitivity analysis is necessary
Implementation
A phase where all the benefits will be reaped. It needs the consent of senior management. They need
to be informed from the outset. Provide a careful explanation of the new system to be adopted.
Develop the procedure required for implementation. Obtain feedback on the performance and
assumptions.
• Let x = unknown level of decision. Where multiple decisions are involved, let xi = unknown level
of decision for i.
• List all the constraints and articulate the objectives. Objective is the goal of the problem. All
constraints have to be met.
• Try to develop linear or additive models for simpler solutions and tractability.
General Caution
You can use the solutions for decision-making.
The solution itself is not hard bound optima.
The other outputs from the post-optimality
analysis are more useful in understanding the
system and developing or designing measures to
manage the problem.
SOME APPLICATIONS
1. Distribution, Warehousing, and Industrial Siting: Least cost solution for the distribution of goods
from multiple locations to multiple destinations. These are typically called routing problems.
EXAMPLES
1. Siting Health Clinics
To site 10 health clinics in a region. Communities with 1000 or more people should be able to
reach a clinic within 10 miles. Clinic is only sited in a community with 10,000 or more people.
Data: Population of each community, distance between the communi-
ties.
Objective: min(Smax )
Constraints: Budget.
There is an underlying common structure of model formulation that represents the fundamental way of
viewing engineering decision problems. It contains:
• Cost related objective function that need to be minimized, or a desired objective that need to be
maximized.
• Constraints limit the range of possible activities.
• Models can be linear or non-linear on the objective functions and constraints.
For example, consider an activity analysis problem where we need to determine how many items of a
given type should be manufactured. Each item brings in a certain profit, and it increases as the
production level increases. Each item utilizes some resources that are limited. Let us use the following
notations to formulate the model:
j = 1 · · · m Þ number of constraints
ai j Þ coefficient of ith quantity of jth constraint. It represents the amount of resource j that i
consumes.
b j Þ available resource j
Z = c1 x1 + c2 x2 + · · · + cn xn
subject to Constraints:
a j1 x1 + a j2 x2 + · · · + a jn xn , ∀ j = 1···m
Non-negative Constraints:
xi ≥ 0 ∀i = 1 · · · n
We can either maximize or minimize the objective function Z, depending of whether it is profit or cost.
All the variables are on the left hand side. All the constants are on the right hand side. The signs are
≤, ≥ or =
They have three sources, source 1 Þ current supply, source 2 Þ new aquifer, and source 3 Þ distant
stream. The cost to obtain water in $ per million gallons, supply limits in mgd, and hardness in lbs per
million gallons are:
S1 S2 S3
Cost ($/mgd) 500 1000 2000
Supply Limit (mgd) 25 120 100
Hardness (lbs/mg) 200 2300 700
Decision Variables
x1 = mgd from S1
x2 = mgd from S2
x3 = mgd from S3
Constraints:
Water supply constraint: x1 + x2 + x3 ≥ 150 mgd
Non-negative constraint: x1 ≥ 0; x2 ≥ 0; x3 ≥ 0
Decision Variables
x1 = # of desks
x2 = # of chairs
x3 = # of dressers
x4 = # of tables
Constraints:
Pine Resource: 7x1 + 1.5x2 + 10x3 + 4x4 ≤ 4000 board-ft
Non-negative constraint: x1 ≥ 0; x2 ≥ 0; x3 ≥ 0; x4 ≥ 0
You cannot cut more than a1 from cut portion 1 and a2 from cut portion 2. You have to fill atleast b1 ,
b2 , b3 in fill portions 1, 2 and 3 for the designed slope. The cost of transporting cut portion i to fill
portion j is ci j .
Decision Variables
xi j where i = 1, 2 and j = 1, 2, 3 is the amount cut from i and transported to fill j
Constraints:
Cut Constraint: x11 + x12 + x13 ≤ a1
Decision Variables
x = length in feet of the side
z = number of floors
Constraints:
Area Constraint: x2 z ≥ 400, 000 f t 2
Non-negative constraint: x ≥ 0; z ≥ 0
ε1 and ε2 are the organic removal efficiency (%) at the treatment plants. Both efficiency levels have to
be at least 35%. Further, the DO at C2 should be at least 6 mg/l and the DO below C2 should be at
least 4 mg/l. The cost of removal for community is $20,000 per efficiency fraction and $10,000 per
efficiency fraction for communities 1 and 2 respectively.
Decision Variables
ε1 = removal efficiency for community 1
ε2 = removal efficiency for community 2
Constraints:
Water Quality Constraint at C2 : 1 + 0.1ε1 ≥ 6 mg/l
Non-negative constraint: ε1 ≥ 0; ε2 ≥ 0
Project Time to Prepare (Hrs) Hours of skilled labor Cranes required? Profit (in $1000)
1 8 6000 1 80
2 12 5000 0 110
3 13 4000 1 100
4 11 7000 0 90
5 9 8000 0 70
6 7 3000 1 80
7 8 4000 1 90
8 8 5000 1 60
The contractor has 3 cranes, 30,000 hours of skilled labor, and a total of 50 person-hours to prepare
the bid. Given this information, which of the eight projects should be pursued?
Decision Variables
x j ∀ j = 1 : 8 = 1 or 0; 1 = yes, go for the bid, 0 = no
Constraints:
Cranes Constraint : 1x1 + 0x2 + 1x3 + 0x4 + 0x5 + 1x6 + 1x7 + 1x8 ≤ 3 cranes
Person Hours Constraint: 8x1 + 12x2 + 13x3 + 11x4 + 9x5 + 7x6 + 8x7 + 8x8 ≤ 50 person-hours
Workforce Constraint: 6x1 + 5x2 + 4x3 + 7x4 + 8x5 + 3x6 + 4x7 + 5x8 ≤ 30 hours
Decision Variables
b, h base and height of the tent
Constraints:
Geometry Constraint: ( b2 )2 + h2 = 52 Pythagorus Theorem for the right triangle
Non-negative constraint: b ≥ 0; h ≥ 0
City 1 City 2
Plant 1 0.0075 0.0025
Plant 2 0.0025 0.0075
Decision Variables
x1 = removal at plant 1
x2 = removal at plant 2
Constraints:
Air Quality Constraint at city 1: (12000 − x1 ) ∗ 0.0075 + (20000 − x2 ) ∗ 0.0025 ≤ 50 kg
Non-negative constraint: x1 ≥ 0; x2 ≥ 0
Parcel Species
1 A, B
2 D
3 A, C
4 C
5 A, D
6 B
7 B
8 B
9 C, D
Decision Variables
x j ∀ j = 1 : 9 = 1 or 0; 1 = yes, preserve, 0 = no
Constraints:
Species Constraint : x1 + x3 + x5 ≥ 1 species A
Species Constraint : x1 + x6 + x7 + x8 ≥ 1 species B
Species Constraint : x3 + x4 + x9 ≥ 1 species C
Species Constraint : x2 + x5 + x9 ≥ 1 species D
Objectives
1. To develop the ability to identifying a system(s) and its various components and controls.
Tasks
1. Read the following documents in the listed order.
2. Solve the following problems to understand the concepts. Summarize the key concepts learned
from them.
3. Timed Workouts: Simulate an exam-like environment and solve the problems given in the
“timed workouts” section under the specified time. This will help you prepare for modular
assessments and exams.
Albert, Wilbert, and Gilbert placed orders for 400 units, 300 units and 300 units of timber respectively
from Tom.
Factory 1 can produce at most 500 units and Factory 2 can produce at most 500 units.
Cost of shipping from the two factories to the three customers are as follows:
Tom should determine how many units of timber to ship from each factory to each of their three
customers. He has to come up with an optimal plan to send the lumber supplies at the lowest cost.
1. In words, identify the decision variables, objective function, constraints, and the model
parameters for Tom’s optimal plan.
m
∑ xi j ≤ ai ∀i = 1 : n
j=1
n
∑ xi j ≥ b j ∀j = 1 : m
i=1
From the information given about the problem, write down what each of these math symbols
describe: Z, n, m, ci j , xi j , ai , b j
4. There is an important constraint missing. Identify what that is and describe it mathematically.