INTL201

WEEK TWO

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
Exponential growth and its implications
- Hidden momentum of population growth
Patterns
- World population ~ 6.5 billion
- Annual population growth ~ 1.2%
- Asia contains 60 percent of world’s population
- 50 percent of growth in India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, DR Congo, Bangladesh, Uganda,
Ethiopia, US
Causes of population explosion
- Medical advances
- Agricultural revolution
- Emergence of cities
Implications of rapid population growth
- Informality
- Rise of megacities in LDCs
Population density
- Average number of people per unit of area
- Physiological density
Carrying capacity
Average number of people per unit or arable land
- Size of population tells us nothing about distribution of pop.
Many countries with large populations have low population density (US, Brazil,
Russia)
Countries with high pop. density are not necessarily poor
Fertility rates
- Total fertility rate (TFR)
Average number of children born to a woman
TFR of 2.3 necessary to replace current population
TFR < 3.0
Several countries in Europe expected to lose population over next 25 years
- Sweden, Russia, Germany, Italy
- Aging population
- Life expectancy in Russia has dropped (for men) to only about 59 years
Infant mortality rate
- Number of deaths of children less than 1 year per 1000 births
- Fall quickest in developing countries followed by increases in life expectancy
Population Processes
- Interaction of three population processes
Fertility, mortality, migration
Demographic Equation
P2 = P1 + (B – D) + (I – O)
P2 = Population at some future time
P1 = Present population
B = Births
D = Deaths
I = In-migrants
O = Out-migrants

Crude birth rate (CBR)

- Number of babies born per 1000 people per year
- CBR less than 15 or 20 usually indicative of developed nation
Crude death rate (CDR)
- Number of deaths per 1000 people per year (mortality rate)
- Developing countries increasingly have lower CDRs because of young population
Rate of Natural Increase
- Difference between CDR and CBR (CBR – CDR)
- Does not include migration
Doubling time
- Number of years it takes a population to double
- Rule of 70

Demographic Transition
- Theory that explains historical patterns of population growth
- Based on NW European nations as they developed from rural agrarian societies to urban
industrial societies
Four stages
- High birth rates and high, but fluctuating, death rates
Low rates of population growth
No longer found on large scale
- Decline in death rates accompanied by continued high birth rates
Technological advances reduce deaths
Results in population explosion
- Continued low death rates accompanies by declining birth rates
Population increases at a decreasing rate
- Low birth and death rates
Population stabilizes
Zero population growth

How does growth in Third World differ from demographic transition in Europe?
- Rapidity
- Larger base population
- Failure of industry to provide jobs for rapid population increase
Structure of population
- Determines needs of population

Population pyramids (age-sex pyramids)

- Graphic device that represents age and sex of population
- Shape of pyramid
Broad base indicates rapidly expanding population
Vertical sides indicate a stable population
Pinching in indicates major population loss (war, famine)

Dependency Ratio
- Crude approximation of socio-economic burden
- Population pyramid gives some indication of dependency ratio

POPULATION AS A GLOBAL ISSUE

- Most major global issues are directly or indirectly linked to population
- Population and development
o A Goldilocks issue???

Demographic issues
- Rapid population growth
o Is population explosion a problem?
 Young are a burden?
 Effects on women?
o What are proposed solutions?
 Birth control
- Slow growth
o Is slow growth the ideal?
o Does importing workers solve problem?
- Population decline
o What are potential implications of population decline?
 Pro
 Con
 What are proposed solutions?
- Ageing population
- How to care for elderly, fund services and pensions?
o Sustainability (carrying capacity)

Controlling population
- Promoting growth
o China, Brazil, Romania and others
o People are power
- Human nature
o No need for intervention
 - Urbanization and development lead to declines in births
- Population/birth control
- In McNamara’s view, population control justified because it reduces consumption,
environmental damage, poverty and hunger
o Demeaning to women?
 Abortion and sterilization
- Other incentives?
- Why does US support population control in LDCs
- Is population control merely a justification of something else?
- Jeopardizes U.S. security
o Our ability to continue consuming at a high level depends upon reducing number
of people who also potentially want to be consumers…

Mosher response to McNamara

- Population control permeates many World Bank initiatives
o Education, health, debt relief, food aid, development)
- Social engineering, not development
- Threatens sovereignty
- Imposition of Western feminism on Third World women
- Places contraceptive and family planning demands on women (abortion, contraception)
- Women are target (victims) of overpopulation problem
- Reducing number of babies born will not eliminate poverty nor solve other social
problems

Global issues
- Both IMPLOSION and EXPLOSION
- Will LDCs follow MDCs in terms of fertility patterns?
- Should international community interfere in national sovereignty to influence fertility?
- Is population the problem or consumption?
- Why are birth rates falling? Women’s empowerment? Education?
- Does an aging society necessarily lead to a lower standard of living?
- Will labor more from one country to another to compensate for need for workers?
- Can increased productivity make up for fewer workers?
- Is it possible for government to encourage smaller families?
- What are other solutions to ageing population?
o Work until older?
o Larger families?
o Import workers (inevitable in capitalism economic system)
o Reduce pension and health benefits
- What are environmental implications of demographic trends?
- Has birth control really transformed women’s role in society?
o Freakonomics
 Abortion and crime