CAUSALITY CHECKLIST SUMMARY

CHECK FOR PROBABILISTIC IDENTIFY GROUP DRIVERS CHECK FOR CONFOUNDS CHECK FOR REVERSE CAUSALITY
EQUIVALENCE
Off the top of your head: Dig deeper using these questions: For each driver:
– Could outcome
– Did units get randomly – What drivers do you think – Did firms choose/influence which – Could the driver affect the
differences have directly
assigned to the groups I influenced what groups groups units end up in? If so, outcome independently of caused variation in the
am comparing? units ended up in? what drivers were these decision the group units ended up in? factor of interest?
based on?
– Did units self-select into groups?
If so, based on what drivers?
Outcome Outcome – Are the groups separated by Outcome Outcome

time? If so, what outcome-

?
Factor of interest Factor of interest related factors vary over time? Factor of interest Factor of interest
Group A Group B Group A Group B Group A Group B Group A Group B

?
Random assignment ? Driver ? Driver

If the answer is no, then caution: If the answer is yes, you failed the causality If the answer is yes, you failed the causality
Caution: Consider all plausible drivers
groups may not be comparable checklist because the driver is a confound checklist because there is reverse causality
If the answer is yes, then you have
If the answer is no, then you have passed the causality checklist because there
passed the causality checklist: the
groups are probabilistically equivalent The difference in outcomes are neither confounds nor reverse causality
between the two groups is caused
by the factor of interest