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Air India On Sale
Air India On Sale
Abstract
This case study is based on the epic divestment of Air India which eventually did not take off. Post ill-conceived merger without any
synergies, the losses began to enlarge exponentially. This led the carrier to financial losses, apart from that enormous order of 110
fleets without having the capacity to pay, crippled the financial status of the airline substantially. All the government’s effort to restruc-
ture and turn around the airline proved to be a failure. The plot for this case is set as, considering the government’s inability to cope
with its debts and meet day-to-day expenses in this extremely competitive industry, the Union Cabinet gave its ‘in-principle’ nod to
divest holdings in Air India, but had not formally announced for the bidding process, a group of ministers are still working on terms
of divestment. Meanwhile the news created a buzz and potential bidders have started informally expressing their interest in Air India.
The government is expecting more and more bidders to participate to derive maximum out of the auction. When more and more
bidders participate in a bid, the bid amount always ascends and a situation of winner’s curse is created where the winning bidder has a
feeling of regret by over-paying the amount in order to win the bid. The subject that this case will fit into is Game Theory and Strategic
Management courses and central theme or concept to be taught through this case is situation of winner’s curse and some more con-
cepts related to Auctions and Strategy.
Keywords
Finance, organizational behaviour, operations, economics and strategy
On 28 March 2018, the global aviation industry was the fact that air transport was still considered a luxury for
stormed by the breaking news. the mass population of the country with approximately 40
per cent upwardly mobile middle class (Brand India, n.d.b).
The Government issued a Preliminary Information
Memorandum (PIM) inviting Expression of Interest (EI)for
strategic disinvestment of Air India. (Service, 2018, May 22; Background
Figure 1)
Since Air India has been merged with Indian Airlines in
2007, it has been unprofitable (Kotoky, 2018, January 15).
Air India Limited (AIL), an Indian flag carrier, a
Air India’s losses widened to more than `75 billion in the
government-owned enterprise, operates a fleet of Airbus
financial year 2011–2012 (Figure 3 and Table 1) and stood
and Boeing aircraft serving in 94 national and international
at `38.367 billion at the end 2016, which had prompted the
destinations (Air India, 2019, July 04).
NITI Aayog1 to propose the divestment of Air India to the
During 2018, Indian civil aviation was classified as the
Ministry of Civil Aviation (Usmani, 2017, June 28). The
‘ninth largest aviation sector in the world’ and is anticipated
Civil Aviation Ministry had discovered the options and
to be ‘the third largest by 2020 and the largest by 2030’
methods to turnaround Air India, which was running on a
(Reuters, 2018, May 30) (Figure 2). In the last 3 years,
bailout fund of `300 billion (Times of India, n.d.).
Indian civil aviation has been one of the fastest growing
sectors in the country and is projected to become ‘the biggest
domestic civil aviation industry in the world’ over the next 1 Bundelkhand University, Jhansi, Uttar Pradesh, India.
10–15 years. The passenger market in India is also projected 2 University of Hyderabad, Hyderabad, Telangana, India.
to displace Great Britain and become the third largest
Corresponding author:
passenger market by 2025 (Livemint, 2017, October 24). Arjuni Jain Agarwal, Bundelkhand University, Jhansi, Uttar Pradesh
It was mostly untapped and would provide enormous 284001, India.
growth opportunities (Brand India, n.d.b), keeping in view E-mail: f18arjunija@iima.ac.in
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2 Emerging Economies Cases Journal
Figure 1. Advertisement from Government of India Inviting EoI for Air India Divestment Preliminary Information Memorandum
Source: http://www.civilaviation.gov.in/sites/default/files/PRELIMINARY INFORMATION MEMORANDUM.pdf
Figure 2. Passenger Traffic Carried by Scheduled Carriers Over the Past Decade
Source: http://www.dgca.nic.in/pub/HANDBOOK 2017-18/HANDBOOK 2017-18.pdf
Note: The domestic passenger traffic registered a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.76% during the period 2007–2008 to 2017–2018
while the international passenger traffic grew at 8.32% (CAGR) during the same period.
Agarwal and Reddy 3
History of Air India An open-air policy has been adopted that has allowed
air taxi companies to run chartered and unchartered flights
In 1932, J. R. D. Tata introduced the first planned Indian
from any airport and to decide on their flight schedules,
airline, Tata Airlines, to pilot a single-engine flight from
freight and passenger fares.
Karachi to Mumbai via Ahmedabad. Nevill Vintcent, a
Air India’s low-cost carrier, Air India Express (AI
former Royal Air Force (RAF) pilot and J. R. D. Tata’s
Express), was introduced in April 2005. The same year, an
colleague, flew a plane from Bellary to Chennai to complete
advance check-in service was made accessible at the Air
the trip.
India Building in Mumbai (Nariman Point).
In its initial year of service in 1933, Tata Airlines trav-
After 2004, both the companies’ sales have been
elled 160,000 miles with 155 passengers and 9.72 tons of
significantly impacted. Their market share decreased to a
mail and made a profit of US $840 (`60,000). In the years
great extent and, to avoid rivalry, the then Minister of Civil
that followed, Tata Airlines continued to focus on sales
Aviation (2004−2011), Praful Patel, suggested the merger
under a mail order agreement with the Indian government.
of AIL and Indian Airlines Limited (IAL). Air India was
In 1953 the government passed the aviation law and
nationalized the entire aviation sector in India. Eight the combined body of AIL and IAL.
separate domestic airlines were integrated with Indian Contradictory to their assumptions, the merged entity
Airlines, which was the main domestic carrier, and Air began to incur massive losses as of 2007. As a result, the
India International took over foreign routes. This privilege major expectations of the merger to plough profits were not
has been perpetuated for the next 40 years. On 8 June 1960, fulfilled. Air India suffered losses of `280 billion between
the name of the carrier was formally truncated to Air India 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2012.
from Air India International. On 11 June 1960, Air India
becomes the world’s first all-jet airline. World Aviation Industry
Air India experienced tough times in the early 1970s.
Around 1976 and 1985, it incurred losses in 3 years. The Although the aviation sector’s revenue is estimated to peak
slowdown in the world economy had a major effect on air at $35.6 billion in 2016, soft landings in productive areas
transport throughout the globe, and India being no are projected to make a net income of $29.8 billion in 2017,
exception. After that, it was the world’s first airline to the eighth consecutive year with a gross return on sales of
incorporate into its fleet the innovative A320 fly-by-wire Airline shows tolerance to shocks that had become the
built by French Airbus Industries in 1989. foundation of the sector. On an average, airlines are
Air India joined the Guinness Book of World Records retaining $7.54 for every passenger they carry.
for the maximum number of passengers rescued by a The predicted spike in oil prices will have the biggest
passenger airliner during the Persian Gulf War to deport effect on the 2017 outlook (Figure 4). Oil rates have hit
Indian emigrants from Kuwait and Iraq. $44.6/barrel (Brent) during 2016 and have been forecast to
It also introduced the Global Distribution System, grow to $55.0 by 2017. It will raise the price of jet-fuel
which enabled agents to access various airline inventories. around $52.1/bar (2016) to $64.9/barrel. (2017). A share of
The government announced its price control policies and 18.7 per cent of the sector’s cost structure is forecast for
market-linked fares came into existence. After 37 years of 2017, slightly below the previous high of 33.2 per cent in
operation in 1992, the government agreed to break the 2012-2013.
monopoly of Indian Airlines over domestic civil aviation The incentive for demand for lower energy costs will
by opening the doors to East-West Airlines to serve as a stabilize in 2017 and reduce traffic growth to 5.1 per cent
national level private airline. versus 5.9 per cent in 2016. Industrial production expansion
is however projected to slip to 5.6 per cent after 6.2 per airline industry (Figure 5) and 10.4 per cent of foreign
cent during 2016. Capacity development might also surpass flight operations (Table 2).
increased demand as well as decrease the worldwide In addition, Air India’s home network, which spans
passenger load factor to 79.8 per cent from 80.2 per cent nearly 55 destinations, has been a tremendous advantage to
during 2016. tapping growing Tier II and Tier III market demand in
The repercussions of under-utilized factors are expected India and is considered one of the largest domestic aviation
to be partially reconciled with global economic markets. Air India even had access to airplane parking and
developments. World GDP is forecast to grow by 2.5 per hangar amenities in many other significant domestic and
cent in 2017 particularly in comparison to 2.2 per cent global destinations (Table 3).
during 2016. Along with economic market improvements, Besides, the airline was the largest international airline
this must help to improve the return from both cargo and in India with a 17 per cent market share. There were also
passenger businesses. attractive slots at airports with limited capacity. This could
be a significant advantage for a new or existing player
looking to enter or expand their markets. As of 31 December
Attractiveness of Air India 2017, Air India had approximately 280 slot machines out
Acquisition of a total of 3,739 national slot machines and 2,543
Indian Civil Aviation Market international slot machines per year in the Gulf and Middle
East region, which included Abu Dhabi, Jeddah, Tel Aviv
India is perhaps one of the fastest growing domestic and Muscat (PTI, 2018, March 29).
aviation industries in the world and was to jump to third
place in the air traffic after the USA and China (Brand
India, n.d.a) (Table 5). According to the forecast by the
International Air Transport Association (IATA), the region
Asia-Pacific would be the driver with the greatest demand
between 2016 and 2036, with even more than 50 per cent
of new passenger traffic coming from the region (IATA,
n.d.). This incentive in itself will enhance the motivation of
every airline with strategic ambitions.
Air India
Air India operated a fleet of 140 long-haul aircraft which
travelled to almost 41 overseas as well as 72 domestic Figure 5. Airline Market Share in May
destinations, representing 13 per cent of the domestic Source: Usmani (2017, June 28).
Table 3. Air India’s Attractions Table 4. Potential Bidders and Their Deal Value
• The largest share of international traffic to and fro from S. No. Potential Bidders Potential Deal Value
India at 17%
1 Tata-Singapore Airlines Extremely profitable
• 14% domestic traffic share
2 Jet-Air France-KLM-Delta Extremely profitable
• Flies to 72 Indian destinations and 41 international
destinations 3 IndiGo and Qatar Airways Extremely profitable
• A fleet of 140 planes 4 British Airways Profitable
• Owns about 2,000 pilots, 2,000 engineers and 4,000 cabin
crew 5 German Airlines Profitable
• Only Indian Airlines with own aircraft maintenance and 6 Lufthansa Profitable
repairs centre
7 Etihad Profitable
• Training centre with Boeing 777 and 787 simulators
8 Malaysian Airlines Profitable
• A huge pool of landholding at various places
• Owns the largest number of aircraft hangers Source: The authors.
and airport infrastructure constraints, IndiGo would land consolidations, the three main carriers, Delta, United
up sending their airplanes to Sri Lanka for repairs, Air Airlines and the American Airlines, are already in pretty
India’s in-house technical and engineering department, and good condition. For Delta, a better role in India offers a
its and maintenance division with an overhaul division will realistic opportunity to reclaim market share throughout
be a major asset on its own (PTI, 2014, April 24). the rising Indian-American business (Gupta, 2018, March
The intangible advantages of Star Alliance providing 24). For this cause, the USA needed to link with a local
connectivity to 1,269 destinations in more than 193 countries collaborator like those of Jet-Air and KLM-Air France in
would make the deal sweeter (Mody, 2017, July 5). At the Europe to tackle the gulf airline initiative. Inspired by
other side, IndiGo was faced with the challenges of preparing Delta’s participation in Air India divestment bid, the UK
pilots and staff, but Air India has aircraft from Airbus and and the USA are expected to join in the bidding war (Gupta,
Boeing with various configurations that may contribute to 2018, March 23).
the difficulty of fleet management. Nevertheless, for IndiGo, Although AI Express, a low-cost carrier, so far has done
it may contribute to more troubling concerns regarding the a decent job of taking advantage of both the Gulf and South
domestic monopoly scenario, provided that its total market East Asia traffic from its Kerala headquarters. It is said to
share would automatically grow to about 53 per cent (Gupta, have been in good condition and to have seen substantial
2018, March 24). progress. One explanation behind this is that full-service
providers no longer retain adequate leverage in negotiations
and, in particular, the domestic sector has shifted to low-
DEAL Tata-Singapore Airlines
cost carriers.
The former and current chairman, Tata Group have been Until recently (March 2018), it was expected that only
informally been discussing their interest in the airline with three Indian firms would bid for the sale, they learned that
various government officials. Since the Joint-Venture five more international airlines (British Airways, German
airline, Vistara would start flying international destinations Airlines, Lufthansa, Etihad and Malaysian Airlines)
from the coming (Rai, 2017, June 21). Singapore Airlines (Digital, 2018, April 12) had also shown their interest.
that was under pressure with competition from such
competitors as Thai Airways, Emirates and Cathay Pacific
could become very strong carrier if they were successful in The Market Perception
air India’s acquisition (HT Correspondent, 2017, June 22). The Tata Group is assumed to be ‘getting closer’ to a
The Tata Group and Singapore Airlines were interested in Singapore Airlines partner to bid for Air India, according to
acquiring a 40 per cent stake in Air India way back in 2000 the Times of India report (Moneycontrol, n.d.). The
as well (Shukla, 2017, October 9). Apart from all these, partnership arrangement is stated to be in place and the
Ratan Tata was passionate about aviation (just as he was Tata Group is anticipated to combine AI Express with Air
about cars) (Shukla, 2017, June 21). Asia India, stated in the article. The Tata Group has
Considering India’s strategic position in Asia and its approached Tony Fernandes, a Malaysian entrepreneur
wide and rising exit business, Singapore Airlines as well as who owns a 49 per cent stake in AirAsia India, for approval
Delta have had several reasons to make an ambitious bid. of the acquisition of AI Express (Economic Times, 2020,
Singapore Airlines’ huge fleet of A380 wide-bodied crew February 5). The story would close the circle of change and
and aircraft has been seriously impacted after Emirates not only underlines the sad situation of state-owned
collaborated with Qantas. Passengers heading to Europe companies but also how India’s indigenous market
from Sydney or Melbourne in Australia had the ability to communities fought to disappear even after decades of
take advantage of the Emirates Hub in Dubai to skip socialist politics (Economic Times, 2019, November 5).
Singapore., For Singapore Airlines, Air India could give Regardless of the desire to buy Air India, a serious
the opportunity to aggregate and channel intra-India traffic bidder will not appear until the government decides on the
to fill seats on its A380 flights to the USA, UK and Europe operating mode of sale. The exact number of those who
(Gupta, 2018, March 23). will appear as the top bidders will be announced later when
the bidding process is officially announced (Figure 6).
DEAL Jet-Air France-KLM-Delta While this often happens, a strong list of applicants will
certainly have an impact on the size of offers, which is why
Until now (2018) Gulf Airlines has completely controlled the government hoped it would be the happiest. Ultimately,
traffic via India to both USA and Europe, utilizing its base the seriousness with which they ultimately bid depends on
in Dubai as well as Abu Dhabi, and gradually turning Asia how important the deal is to their long-term strategic
into the hub of the stage (Chowdhury, 2017, April 20). interest. The government had made it clear that it might not
India is expected to attract the focus of US airlines. US divest if the bid price was below the floor price (Financial
switching over to India, following a number of Express, 2018, May 31).
8 Emerging Economies Cases Journal
The government had announced the invitation for Air India. Why did Air India not receive any bids? This
expression of interest (EoI) submission on 28 March 2018 question will be discussed ad nauseam in the coming days.
(Mishra, 2018, May 1). The buzz received (about Air India
stake sale) stood undoubtedly encouraging. The Indian
Ministry of Civil Aviation received nearly 160 enquiries
Questions for Discussion
from potential bidders (Vikas, 2018, June 12).
However, on 31 May 2018, 5:45 pm, the Indian Civil 1. Why do you think Air India did not attract any bids?
Aviation Ministry verified in a tweet. 2. Do you think Air India was valued the same by all
bidders? Or did some bidders have a special affinity
As informed by the transaction adviser, no response had been for Air India when compared to others?
received for the Expression of Interest floated for the strategic 3. What could the Government have done to facilitate
disinvestment of Air India. (Mishra, 2018, May 31) more enthusiasm among potential bidders?
4. What do you think were the points of uncertainty for
As the final deadline was approaching, the government a potential bidder in this exercise?
officials were getting anxious about the nature of potential
bids. But much to their dismay, they realized that Air India Acknowledgements
did not garner any bids. Despite all signs to the contrary, We are very thankful to Prof Viswanath Pingali (IIM-Ahmedabad)
corporate India is not that keen on acquiring an asset like for his keen and kind reviews in supervising this Case Study.
10 Emerging Economies Cases Journal
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true? https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/et-commentary/ india-if-bids-below-floor-price-1855926
will-IndiGos-dream-of-acquiring-air-india-come-true/ Shukla, T. (2017, June 21). Three reasons why Tata may buy Air
Moneycontrol. (n.d.). Air India divestment: Tata Group, India stake with Singapore Airlines. https://www.livemint.
Singapore Airlines ‘move closer’ to make a joint bid: Report. com/Companies/li9pfy29FkHsXbwIGCengP/Three-reasons-
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/air-india- why-Tata-may-buy-Air-India-stake-with-Singapor.html.
divestment-tatas-singapore-airlines-move-closer-to-make- Shukla, T. (2017, October 9). Tata group is considering buying
joint-bid-report-4901461.html Air India: N. Chandrasekaran. https://www.livemint.com/
PTI. (2014, April 24). IndiGo’s A-320 fleet to undergo major Companies/2th5RmOmPX2shMlfsDnITM/Tata-Group-to-
maintenance in Sri Lanka. https://economictimes.indiatimes. consider-buying-Air-India-N-Chandrasekaran.html
com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/IndiGos-a- Shukla, T. (2018, March 29). Jet Airways may consider bidding
320-fleet-to-undergo-major-maintenance-in-sri-lanka/article- for Air India. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/
show/34156953.cms transportation/airlines-/-aviation/jet-airways-may-consider-
———. (2017, July 10). Can IndiGo make a successful Air India bidding-for-air-india/articleshow/63496951.cms
take-off? https://www.hindustantimes.com/business-news/ Shukla, T. (2017, June 13). Air India’s long and difficult jour-
can-IndiGo-make-a-successful-air-india-take-off/story-xVrj- ney towards privatization. https://www.livemint.com/
siuvvjwooWgkKtFb4O.html Companies/Ja2kqlZl9uJERjWejrAgjJ/Air-Indias-long-and-
———. (2018, March 29). Air India’s over 6,200 slots for flights difficult-journey-towards-privatization.html
could be a key attraction for bidders. Times of India. https:// Talukdar, P. (2017, May 9). IndiGo offers summer sale starting Rs
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/air- 899. https://www.ndtv.com/business/IndiGo-offers-summer-
indias-over-6200-slots-for-flights-could-be-a-key-attraction- sale-starting-rs-899-1690818
for-bidders/articleshow/63534345.cms Times of India. (n.d.). Cabinet gives in-principle approval for dis-
Rai, N. (2017, June 21). Tata group interested in buying a 51% investment of Air India. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/
stake in Air India. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/indus- business/india-business/cabinet-gives-in-principle-approval-
try/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/tata-group-interested-in- for-disinvestment-of-air-india-arun-jaitley/articleshow-
buying-51-stake-in-air-india/articleshow/59250929.cms print/59355707.cms
Reuters. (2018, May 30). No bids for Air India so far, won’t Usmani, A. (2017, June 28). Air India divestment set in motion.
extend deadline: Aviation secretary. https://www.ndtv.com/ https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/air-india-divest-
india-news/no-bids-for-air-india-so-far-wont-extend-dead- ment-gets-in-principle-cabinet-approval#gs.R=uCSKA
line-aviation-secretary-rn-choubey-1859880 Vikas. (2018, June 12). No buyers for Air India: Govt mulling
Service, I.-A. N. (2018, May 22). Government might not sell Air sale of 100% stake. https://www.oneindia.com/india/no-buy-
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