’

Daily Commodity Market Update as on Monday, March 28, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
GOLD 20806 20839 20806 20829 0.2
Bullion ended the week with gains as Portugal's credit
SILVER 55400 55524 55336 55478 0.32
downgrade and escalating political unrest in the Arab
SPOT $
world underpinned safe-haven demand.
GOLD 1424.85 1429.3 1423.5 1426.65 -0.2
SILVER 37.2 37.36 37.02 37.16 -0.35
PLATINUM 1740.5 1735.99 1733 1735.99 -0.66

ENERGY COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
Oil prices recovered Saturday after dropping Friday
CRUDE 4736 4745 4736 4742 0.15 dipped as traders weighed concerns about Middle East
N.GAS 193.3 199.7 193.3 197.4 2.53 unrest and Libya's conflict as well as demand for oil in
quake-hit Japan and debt-laden Europe. Natural gas rose
SPOT $ as forecasts showed colder colder-than-normal
than normal weather,
boosting demand for the heating fuel.
CRUDE 105.46 105.95 104.5 105.4 -0.056894

BASEMETAL COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
COPPER 438 5
438.5 439 4
439.4 438 1
438.1 439 1
439.1 0 14
0.14 Base metals inched lower as investors remained cautious
ZINC 106 106.3 106 106.2 0.09 over the long-term demand outlook despite upbeat U.S
NICKEL 1216 1217 1213.2 1216.7 0.24 economic data and stronger equities markets.
LEAD 121.1 121.35 120.95 121.25 0.25
ALUMINIUM 116.9 117.3 116.9 117.2 0.21

LME LME STOCK

COPPER 9705.25 9720.25 9585.25 9605 -1.18 COPPER 4650 439275
ZINC 2379 2395 2363.25 2364.75 -0.42 ZINC -175 735275
NICKEL 27050 2645 26750 26800 -1.01 NICKEL 660 124254
LEAD 2674 2684 2640 2646 -1.27 LEAD -1650 283975
ALUMINIUM 2640 2684 2630 2631 -0.38 ALUMINIUM -5925 4602950

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX
18899.29 5674 2316.36 1313.8 8321.78 12220.59 9470.07 2998.78 2047.99 22999.99 76.31
0.44 0.35 0.18 0.32 0.12 0.41 -0.69 0.7 -0.29 -0.69 -0.11

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 OPEN
20806
HIGH
20839
FUTURE

LOW
20806
CLOSE
20829
% CNG
0.2
VOLUME
X GOLD F

1691
OI
9132
RE CNG
41

INTRADAY LEVELS
MCX

Gold continued it positive ending on week but prices slumped Friday as stronger-than-forecast U.S.
economic i ddata
t prompted
t d ttraders
d tto b
book
k gains
i ffrom record
d prices
i sett earlier
li i the
in th week.
k GGold
ld iis PP
P.P. 20825
closing the week slightly higher at 20829. This week we achieved a high of 21048. Our week's low of SUP 1 RES 1
20715 provides some support but, bigger picture, the key level is last weeks low of 20470. The price
20810 20843
action looks like side ways consolidation of the January 19800 to March 21270 up move. We believe
the risk remains higher for gold to 22200. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for SUP 2 RES 2
18days is currently indicating 51.4, where as 50DMA is at 20684.4 and gold is trading above the 20792 20858
same and getting support at 20810 and below could see a test of 20792 level, And resistance is now SUP 3 RES 3
likely to be seen at 20843, a move above could see prices testing 20858.
20777 20876

OPEN
55400
TURE

HIGH
55524
LOW
55336
LVER FUT

CLOSE
55478
% CNG
0.32
VOLUME
3324
OI
15262
MCX SIL

RE CNG
176

INTRADAY LEVELS
Silver prices ended firm Saturday after falling Friday after a positive report on the economy sent
investors searching for riskier assets after trading higher earlier in the day on concern that Portugal P.P. 55446
may have to seek a bailout and escalating unrest in Libya and the Middle East fuelled demand for
precious metals. Silver is higher this week at 55478. The strong up leg reached to 56555. The Gold
SUP 1 RES 1
Silver ratio is closing as a bearish candle having dropped from last weeks 39.97 close to current 55368 55556
38.39. We broke the 1998 low of 39.09 thus exceeding our long term target. Risk remains lower in SUP 2 RES 2
the ratio. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 55258 55634
70.78, where as 50DMA is at 50016.3 and silver is trading above the same and getting support at
SUP 3 RES 3
55368 and below could see a test of 55258 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 55556, a
move above could see prices testing 55634. 55180 55744

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 OPEN
4736
HIGH
X CRUDE FUTURE
E

4745
LOW
4736
CLOSE
4742
% CNG
0.15
VOLUME
1689
OI
16153
RE CNG
7

INTRADAY LEVELS
Oil recovered Saturday after prices fell Friday on concern that the European debt situation and the
MCX

PP
P.P. 4741
crisis in Japan will curb fuel demand. Oil slipped as EU leaders acceded to German demands to make
smaller upfront payments for the support fund. Libya’s crude exports may be curbed for months SUP 1 RES 1
because of sanctions and damage to production facilities, the International Energy Agency said. Now 4737 4746
technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 58.47, where as SUP 2 RES 2
50DMA is at 4505.78 and crude is trading above the same and getting support at 4737 and below
4732 4750
could see a test of 4732 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4746, a move above could
see prices testing 4750. SUP 3 RES 3
4728 4755

OPEN
438.5
TURE

HIGH
439.4
LOW
438.1
PPER FUT

CLOSE
439.1
% CNG
0.14
VOLUME
1701
OI
19145
MCX COP

RE CNG
0.6

INTRADAY LEVELS
Copper ended settled flat as investors continued to weigh the economic impact from Japan's nuclear
catastrophe and a worsening debt crisis in Europe. China's physical metals market is still P.P. 438.9
demonstrating no clear signs of aggressive restocking, which also helped reverse the upward metals
had built up since the Japanese earthquake and tsunami prompted expectations of higher demand
SUP 1 RES 1
for reconstruction efforts. Chile's Codelco said its 2010 output dipped but should be steady this year, 438.3 439.6
and expects strong Chinese demand, JapanJapan'ss recovery after a natural disaster, as well as new uses SUP 2 RES 2
to stoke demand. In yesterday's trading session copper has touched the low of 438.1 after opening 437.6 440.2
at 438.5, and finally settled at 439.1. For today's session market is looking to take support at 438.3,
SUP 3 RES 3
a break below could see a test of 437.6 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 439.6, a
move above could see prices testing 440.2. 437.0 440.9

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 OPEN
106
HIGH
106.3
FUTURE

LOW
106
CLOSE
106.2
% CNG
0.09
VOLUME
CX ZINC F

361
OI
6389
RE CNG
0.1

INTRADAY LEVELS

Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co,

Co Japan’s top zinc smelter
smelter, said it would resort to imports of PP
P.P. 106
106.2
2
MC

base metal as its 110,000 tonne-a-year Hachinohe zinc smelter in northern Japan would SUP 1 RES 1
probably remain shut for a while after the quake and tsunami damaged the facility. In
106.0 106.3
yesterday's trading session zinc has touched the low of 106 after opening at 106, and finally
settled at 106.2. For today's session market is looking to take support at 106, a break below SUP 2 RES 2
could see a test of 105.9 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 106.3, a move 105.9 106.5
above could see prices testing 106.5. SUP 3 RES 3
105.7 106.6

OPEN
1216
TURE

HIGH
1217
LOW
1213.2
CKEL FUT

CLOSE
1216.7
% CNG
0.24
VOLUME
657
OI
5873
MCX NIC

RE CNG
2.9

INTRADAY LEVELS

P.P. 1216
Nickel yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.24% up at 1216.7 after prices
pressured on Friday on weakening trend at the London Metal Exchange, subdued demand from alloy- SUP 1 RES 1
maker in the spot market led to the decline in nickel prices. In yesterday's trading session nickel has 1214 1218
touched the low of 1213.2 after opening
p g at 1216,, and finally
y settled at 1216.7. For today's
y session SUP 2 RES 2
market is looking to take support at 1214.3, a break below could see a test of 1211.8 and where as
1212 1219
resistance is now likely to be seen at 1218.1, a move above could see prices testing 1219.4.
SUP 3 RES 3
1210 1222

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 URE
OPEN
116.9
HIGH
ALUMINIUM FUTU

117.3
LOW
116.9
CLOSE
117.2
% CNG
0.21
VOLUME
72
OI
1863
RE CNG
0.25

INTRADAY LEVELS
MCX A

There was a bi
Th big oversupplyl off aluminium,
l i i with
ih bbrimming
i i iinventories
i iin LME warehouses.
h D
Data PP
P.P. 117
117.1
1
showed aluminium headline inventories fell 5,925 tonnes to 4,602,950 tonnes, but remain less than SUP 1 RES 1
a percent from record highs. Aluminium yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.21%
117.0 117.4
up at 117.2. In yesterday's trading session aluminium has touched the low of 116.9 after opening at
116.9, and finally settled at 117.2. For today's session market is looking to take support at 117, a SUP 2 RES 2
break below could see a test of 116.7 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 117.4, a 116.7 117.5
move above could see prices testing 117.5. SUP 3 RES 3
116.6 117.8

OPEN
UTURE

193.3
HIGH
199.7
LOW
193.3
T.GAS FU

CLOSE
197.4
% CNG
2.53
VOLUME
2771
OI
5679
RE CNG
MCX NAT

INTRADAY LEVELS
Natural gas rose to the highest level in more than seven weeks as forecasts showed colder-than-
normal weather, boosting demand for the heating fuel. The number of gas drilling rigs rose this week P.P. 196.8
after dropping to the lowest level since Jan. 29, 2010 in the previous week. The stockpile decrease SUP 1 RES 1
was smaller than the five-year average withdrawal for the week of 17 billion cubic feet, department
193.9 200.3
data show. A surplus to the five-year average rose to 2.2 percent from 1.4 percent the previous
M

week In yesterday's trading session natural gas has touched the low of 193.3
week. 193 3 after opening at SUP 2 RES 2
193.3, and finally settled at 197.4. For today's session market is looking to take support at 193.9, a 190.4 203.2
break below could see a test of 190.4 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 200.3, a SUP 3 RES 3
move above could see prices testing 203.2.
187.5 206.7

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 ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

DAILY SPREAD IN GOLD - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN SILVER - MCX

MONTH RATE APRIL JUNE AUG MONTH RATE MAY JULY SEPT
APRIL 20829 269 588 MAY 55478 701 1345
JUNE 21098 319 JULY 56179 644
AUG 21417 SEPT 56823
Spread between Gold APR & JUN contracts yesterday Spread between Silver MAY & JUL contracts yesterday
ended at 269, we have seen yesterday that the gold ended at 701, we have seen yesterday that the silver
market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.2% market had traded with a positive node and settled
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 269 - 295. 0.32% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 672 -
759.

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY JUNE MONTH RATE APRIL JUNE
APRIL 4742 57 103 APRIL 439.1 5.6
MAY 4799 46 JUNE 444.7
JUNE 4845
Spread between crude MAR & APR contracts yesterday Spread between copper APR & JUN contracts yesterday
MARKET

ended at 57, we have seen yesterday that the crude ended at 5.6, we have seen yesterday that the copper
market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.15% market had traded with a positive node and settled
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 57 - 67. 0.14% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 5.5 -
5.65.

DAILY SPREAD IN ZINC - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN NICKEL - MCX

SPREAD M

MONTH RATE MARCH APRIL MONTH RATE MARCH APRIL

MARCH 106.2 1.3 MARCH 1216.7 8.8
APRIL 107.5 APRIL 1225.5

Spread between zinc MAR & APR contracts yesterday
ended at 1.3, we have seen yesterday that the zinc
market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.09%
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1 - 1.3.
S
Spread between nickel MAR & APR contracts yesterday
ended at 8.80, we have seen yesterday that the nickel
market had traded with a positive node and settled
0.24% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 7.10 -
9.

DAILY SPREAD IN NAT. GAS - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN MENTHOL - MCX

MONTH RATE MARCH APRIL MONTH RATE APRIL MAY
MARCH 197.4 5.9 APRIL 1116.3 -144.4
APRIL 203.3 MAY 971.9

Spread between natural gas MAR & APR contracts
yesterday ended at 5.90, we have seen yesterday that the
natural gas market had traded with a positive node and
settled 2.53% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of
4.5 - 6.6.
Spread between menthol oil APR & MAY contracts
yesterday ended at -144.40, we have seen yesterday that
the menthol oil market had traded with a positive node
and settled 1.4% up. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of -146.9 to -139.3.

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 DAY TIME CURRENCY DATA Forecast Previous
AL

6:00pm USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.002 0.001

ONOMICA

6:00pm USD Personal Spending m/m 0.006 0.002

6:00pm USD Personal Income m/m 0.005 0.01
DATA

7:30pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0 -0.028

8:30pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
Mon 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
ECO

0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

World wheat production will total 676 million metric tons in 2011, a growth of 3.4% from last year's levels but still
below the bumper harvests of 2008 and 2009, according Wednesday to a report by the United Nations' food body.
Wheat plantings in many countries have increased or are expected to increase this year in response to strong prices,
the Food and Agriculture Organization noted in its latest edition of the Crops Prospects and Food Situation report. At
the same time, yield recoveries are forecast in areas that were affected by drought in 2010, the Russian Federation in
particular, the FAO report noted. The majority of global coarse grains and paddy crops are still to be planted, making
it difficult to forecast total cereal production for 2011, the report added.
SE
U CAN US

Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, will step up its use of crude for power generation in 2011, Saleh Alawaji,
the country's junior electricity minister, said on Thursday, as the nation balances use of a new oilfield against
obligations to oil cartel OPEC. Saudi oil industry figures seen by Reuters showed the kingdom estimated direct use of
EWS YOU

fuel for power generation to rise to 540,000 bpd this year from 403,000 bpd last year. Using more crude to generate
electricity allows the kingdom to utilise fresh output from a major new oilfield while holding firm to its OPEC
commitments to curb exports. It also helps the kingdom meet stricter environment rules. Although sitting on the
world's biggest oil and gas reserves, Saudi Arabia is struggling to keep pace with rapidly rising power demand as
petrodollars have fueled a region-wide economic boom as well as rapid population growth. And the kingdom is
presently weighing up nuclear options which it sees as a good option for power generation and desalination despite
the recent crisis in Japan, Alawaji said.
NE

The monetary policy will continue to be tight to curb high inflation, the prime minister's top economic adviser said on
Friday, forecasting headline inflation to ease to 7.5 percent in March. "The inflation rate continues to be high and
therefore the monetary policy will have to remain tight," C. Rangarajan, chairman of the prime minister's Economic
Advisory Council, told. The RBI has raised policy rates eight times in the last 12 months as headline inflation stays
way above its comfort level of around 5 percent. The bank has warned of more inflationary pressures, prompting
analysts to expect further rounds of monetary tightening this year. He also said the current account deficit in
2010/11 would be only slightly above 2.5 percent of GDP and expected capital inflows of around $60 billion in the
year would be enough to finance it.

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