Daily Commodity Market Update as on Friday, April 29, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
GOLD 22175 22349 22143 22130 0.69
Bullion soared to an all-time high as the dollar fell and as
SILVER 69400 72849 68499 68820 3.18
signs that the Federal Reserve would maintain a loose
SPOT $
monetary policy stoked inflation worries.
GOLD 1535.65 1537.25 1532.3 1534.9 -0.13
SILVER 48.46 48.48 48.08 48.46 -0.25
PLATINUM 1831.99 1838.24 1832.75 1837 0.27

ENERGY COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
CRUDE 5046 5085 4988 5013 -0.68 Crude oil ended weak but recovered some of its losses as
a weak dollar attracts investors seeking alternative
N.GAS 198.3 206.1 197.1 198 3.7
assets. Natural gas ended higher after the U.S. Energy
Information Administration said natural gas inventories
SPOT $ rose less-than-expected last week.
CRUDE 113.13 113.97 111.69 112.86 -0.238663

BASEMETAL COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX Base metals yesterday ended mixed. Copper and lead
COPPER 424.7 427.4 419.75 423.85 -0.11 ended in red zone influenced by slowing economic
ZINC 101.45 102.3 100.1 100.85 0.4 conditions in the U.S. that underscored the bearish
NICKEL 1199.8 1209.3 1185.1 1197.6 0.57 sentiment surrounding demand prospects at the start of
114.4 115.3 112.05 114.15 -0.88 the year while other metals ended firm on short covering.
LEAD
ALUMINIUM 122.5 123 121.75 121.9 0.61

LME LME STOCK

COPPER 0 0 0 9385 0 COPPER 150 463650
ZINC 0 0 0 2245 0 ZINC 4675 821375
NICKEL 0 0 0 26760 0 NICKEL -588 117384
LEAD 0 0 0 2526.25 0 LEAD 1000 308375
ALUMINIUM 0 0 0 2740.5 0 ALUMINIUM 5950 4612050

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX
19309.11 5791.3 2409.9 1360.48 8639.73 12763.31 9849.74 2890.29 2186.56 23683.76 73.09
0.09 0.11 -0.15 0.36 0.35 0.57 0 0.11 -0.99 -0.48 -0.05

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 OPEN
22175
HIGH
22349
MCX GOLD FUTURE

LOW
22143
CLOSE
22130
% CNG
0.69
VOLUME
35506
OI
12507
RE CNG
153

INTRADAY LEVELS
Gold extended gains and settled at 22283 that is up by 0.69%, rallying to yet another all-time high
after official government data showed that the U.S. economy slowed significantly since the end of
P.P. 22258
2010 and initial jobless claims rose unexpectedly last week. The Commerce Department said gross
domestic product, the value of all the goods and services produced, rose at a seasonally adjusted SUP 1 RES 1
annual rate of 1.8% in the first quarter. The modest increase marked a significant slowdown from 22168 22374
the economy's pace in the fourth quarter, when GDP rose by 3.1%. The result was broadly in line SUP 2 RES 2
with economists' forecasts. The report said consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of
22052 22464
demand in the U.S. economy, rose at a 2.7% rate in the first quarter, down from the 4.0% pace
registered in the fourth quarter. Now gold is getting support at 22168 and below could see a test of SUP 3 RES 3
22052 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 22374, a move above could see prices testing 21962 22580

OPEN
69400
MCX SILVER FUTURE

HIGH
72849
LOW
68499
CLOSE
68820
% CNG
3.18
VOLUME
135830
OI
8268
RE CNG
2261

INTRADAY LEVELS
Silver soared once again to an all-time high on Thursday as the dollar fell and as signs that the
Federal Reserve would maintain a loose monetary policy stoked inflation worries. Silver briefly
P.P. 70810
climbed to within a whisker of $50 an ounce, eclipsing the peak hit when Texan brothers William
Herbert and Nelson Bunker Hunt sought to corner the silver market three decades ago. The metal SUP 1 RES 1
later pulled back on technical selling. Spot silver , which has rocketed nearly 60 percent so far this 68770 73120
year, precious metals rose after data showed U.S. economic growth braked sharply in the first SUP 2 RES 2
quarter as higher food and gasoline prices dampened consumer spending, sending inflation rising at
66460 75160
its fastest pace in 2-1/2 years. Now silver is getting support at 68770 and below could see a test of
66460 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 73120, a move above could see prices testing SUP 3 RES 3
75160. 64420 77470

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 OPEN
5046
HIGH
MCX CRUDE FUTURE

5085
LOW
4988
CLOSE
5013
% CNG
-0.68
VOLUME
125790
OI
12881
RE CNG
-34

INTRADAY LEVELS
Crude bounced in the early trades to their highest in 2-1/2 years, as the dollar remained under
pressure after the Federal Reserve gave no sign it was about to tighten monetary policy. U.S.
P.P. 5029
gasoline futures surged for a sixth straight session, driving prices to the highest level since July 2008
as the world's top consumer gears up for driving season. A Bahraini military court ordered the death SUP 1 RES 1
penalty for four men Thursday over the killing of two policemen in recent protests, state media said, 4972 5069
a move that could increase sectarian strife in a close U.S. ally. U.S. crude oil imports in fell in SUP 2 RES 2
February, after increasing for three consecutive months, EIA said. Crude imports averaged 8.013
4932 5126
million barrels per day in February, down 1.056 million bpd from January. Now crude is getting
support at 4972 and below could see a test of 4932 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at SUP 3 RES 3
5069, a move above could see prices testing 5126. 4875 5166

OPEN
424.7
MCX COPPER FUTURE

HIGH
427.4
LOW
419.75
CLOSE
423.85
% CNG
-0.11
VOLUME
33795
OI
16525
RE CNG
-0.45

INTRADAY LEVELS
Copper yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.12% down at 416.3 influenced by
slowing economic conditions in the US that underscored the bearish sentiment surrounding demand
P.P. 423.5
prospects at the start of the year. Copper's mildly negative tone came after US gross domestic
product for the first quarter slowed to a 1.8 percent annual pace. The negative close came a day SUP 1 RES 1
after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it would complete its $600 billion bond-buying program in June 419.6 427.3
and signaled it was in no rush to scale back its support for the world's largest economy. Volumes SUP 2 RES 2
slowed at the end of a holiday-shortened week in London, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) set
415.9 431.2
to close its doors Friday for a royal wedding and again on Monday for a bank holiday. For today's
session market is looking to take support at 412.4, a break below could see a test of 408.6 and SUP 3 RES 3
where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 420.3, a move above could see prices testing 424.4. 412.0 434.9

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 OPEN
101.45
HIGH
102.3
MCX ZINC FUTURE

LOW
100.1
CLOSE
100.85
% CNG
0.4
VOLUME
17387
OI
11522
RE CNG
0.4

INTRADAY LEVELS
Zinc yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.86% down at 98.5 tracking LME zinc
prices rose to USD 2,304/mt in the morning session during the Asian trading hours, but failed to P.P. 101.2
stabilize at USD 2,300/mt. The US 1Q GDP rose slower by 1.8%, weighing down LME zinc prices to SUP 1 RES 1
USD 2,226/mt, and with prices closing at USD 2,265/mt, down USD 20/mt. Trading volumes
100.1 102.3
decreased by 4,784 lots to 10,718 lots, and total positions increased by 1,591 lots to 236,913 lots.
The LME market is closed today due to the wedding of English prince. In yesterday's trading session SUP 2 RES 2
zinc has touched the low of 98.1 after opening at 99.9, and finally settled at 98.5. For today's 99.0 103.4
session market is looking to take support at 97.5, a break below could see a test of 96.4 and where SUP 3 RES 3
as resistance is now likely to be seen at 100.2, a move above could see prices testing 101.8.
97.9 104.5

OPEN
1200
MCX NICKEL FUTURE

HIGH
1209
LOW
1185
CLOSE
1197.6
% CNG
0.57
VOLUME
29811
OI
5540
RE CNG
6.9

INTRADAY LEVELS
Nickel yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.85% down at 1176.5 tracking LME
nickel for delivery in three months opened at USD 26,600/mt and closed at USD 26,760/mt, up by
P.P. 1200
USD 60/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 26,800/mt and the lowest price at USD
26,295/mt. LME nickel prices fluctuated wider and hit a high of USD 27,000/mt after opening at USD SUP 1 RES 1
26,800/mt during the Asian trading hours on Thursday, but were weighed by significant decline in 1190 1214
Asian equity market and met resistance at USD 27,000/mt. LME nickel inventories were down by SUP 2 RES 2
588 mt to 117,384 mt. In the Shanghai nickel spot market, traders lifted offers higher due to
1175 1224
support from firm LME nickel prices. Coupled with LME nickel price’s fluctuation at high level on
Thursday, spot prices were firm and were slightly higher from a day earlier. For today's session SUP 3 RES 3
market is looking to take support at 1168.9, a break below could see a test of 1161.2 and where as 1166 1238

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MCX ALUMINIUM FUTURE
OPEN
122.5
HIGH
123
LOW
121.75
CLOSE
121.9
% CNG
0.61
VOLUME
3819
OI
3235
RE CNG
0.75

INTRADAY LEVELS
Aluminium yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.77% up at 122.85 after the US
Labor Department announced on Thursday that the initial claims for jobless benefits increased to
P.P. 122.5
429,000 in the week ending April 23rd, higher the expected level. The US Commerce Department
announced the US gross domestic product (GDP) in 1Q grew at an annual rate of 1.8%, lower than SUP 1 RES 1
the expected level of a 2.0% rise. The weak US economic data weighed down the US dollar index, 121.9 123.2
and the US dollar index opened at 73.32 and closed at 73.06 after dipping to a low of 72.87, down SUP 2 RES 2
0.34%. The weaker US dollar and tighter energy supply in China boosted LME aluminum prices, with
121.2 123.7
LME aluminum prices surging to USD 2,779/mt after opening at USD 2,746/mt, setting a new high
within two and a half years. Later, other base metals traded on the LME lacked upward momentum, SUP 3 RES 3
allowing LME aluminum prices to fall back. For today's session market is looking to take support at 120.7 124.4

OPEN
MCX NAT.GAS FUTURE

198.3
HIGH
206.1
LOW
197.1
CLOSE
198
% CNG
3.7
VOLUME
30282
OI
6794
RE CNG
7.6

INTRADAY LEVELS
Natural gas yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 3.7% up at 205.6 jumping to the
highest level in three months after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said natural gas
P.P. 202.9
inventories rose less-than-expected last week. The U.S. EIA said in its weekly report that natural gas
storage in the U.S. in the week ended April 22 rose by 31 billion cubic feet, after increasing by 47 SUP 1 RES 1
billion cubic feet in the preceding week. Market had expected U.S. natural gas storage to rise by 38 199.8 208.8
billion cubic feet. The five-year average withdrawal for the week is 65 billion cubic feet. Total U.S. SUP 2 RES 2
natural gas storage stood at 1.685 trillion cubic feet. Stocks were 215 billion cubic feet less than last
193.9 211.9
year at this time and 11 billion cubic feet below the five-year average of 1.696 trillion cubic feet for
this time of year. Stocks in the Producing Region were 119 billion cubic feet above the five-year SUP 3 RES 3
average of 674 billion cubic feet, after a net injection of 13 billion cubic feet. For today's session 190.8 217.8

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 ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

DAILY SPREAD IN GOLD - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN SILVER - MCX

MONTH RATE JUNE AUG OCT MONTH RATE MAY JULY SEPT
JUNE 22283 290 634 MAY 71081 570 1209
AUG 22573 344 JULY 71651 639
OCT 22917 SEPT 72290
Spread between Gold JUN & AUG contracts yesterday Spread between Silver MAY & JUL contracts yesterday
ended at 290, we have seen yesterday that the gold ended at 570, we have seen yesterday that the silver
market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.69% market had traded with a positive node and settled
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 290 - 510. 3.18% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 300 -
1201.

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX

MONTH RATE MAY JUNE JULY MONTH RATE JUNE AUG
MAY 5013 52 117 JUNE 423.4 5.6
JUNE 5065 65 AUG 429
JULY 5130
Spread between crude APR & MAY contracts yesterday Spread between copper JUN & AUG contracts yesterday
SPREAD MARKET

ended at 52, we have seen yesterday that the crude ended at 5.6, we have seen yesterday that the copper
market had traded with a negative node and settled - market had traded with a negative node and settled -
0.68% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 49 -0.11% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of
59. 5.45 - 7.15.

DAILY SPREAD IN ZINC - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN NICKEL - MCX

MONTH RATE MAY JUNE MONTH RATE MAY JUNE
MAY 101.25 1.35 MAY 1204.5 9.9
JUNE 102.6 JUNE 1214.4

Spread between zinc MAY & JUN contracts yesterday
ended at 1.35, we have seen yesterday that the zinc
market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.4%
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1 - 1.55.
Spread between nickel MAY & JUN contracts yesterday
ended at 9.90, we have seen yesterday that the nickel
market had traded with a positive node and settled
0.57% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 9.00 -
10.1.

DAILY SPREAD IN NAT. GAS - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN MENTHOL - MCX

MONTH RATE MAY JUNE MONTH RATE MAY JUNE
MAY 205.6 5.1 MAY 1035.7 -92.3
JUNE 210.7 JUNE 943.4

Spread between natural gas MAY & JUN contracts
yesterday ended at 5.10, we have seen yesterday that the
natural gas market had traded with a positive node and
settled 3.7% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of
3.9 - 5.2.
Spread between menthol oil MAY & JUN contracts
yesterday ended at -92.30, we have seen yesterday that
the menthol oil market had traded with a negative node
and settled -1.69% down. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of -108.5 to -88.6.

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 DAY TIME CURRENCY DATA Forecast Previous
ECONOMICAL

11:30am EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.002 -0.004

1:30pm EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 0.022 0.02
1:30pm EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 0.084 0.084
DATA

1:30pm EUR Private Loans y/y 0.029 0.026

2:30pm EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.027 0.027
2:30pm EUR Unemployment Rate 0.099 0.099
Fri 2:30pm EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.003 0.004
6:00pm USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.001 0.002
6:00pm USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.005 0.004
6:00pm USD Personal Spending m/m 0.006 0.007
6:00pm USD Personal Income m/m 0.003 0.003
7:15pm USD Chicago PMI 68.7 70.6
7:25pm USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 70 69.6

India's natural rubber production has risen 3.7% in 2010-11 to 8,61,950 tons, according to Rubber Board. Revealing
the data at the 165th Annual meeting of the Board here, Sheela Thomas, Rubber Board Chairman said that domestic
production stood at 8,31,400 tons and anticipated production for 2010-11 was 9,02,000 tonnes. The anticipated
consumption in 2010-11 was 9,77,000 tons. Domestic consumption has increased by 2 per cent in 2010-11. During
2010-11, growth in tyre production in the automotive sector grew by 23 per cent. Export of tyres also increased by
20 per cent. However, truck and bus tyre exports declined by five per cent. During 2010-11 fiscal, exports stood at
28,424 tonnes compared with 25,090 tonnes in the previous fiscal. Imports accounted for 1,77,482 tonnes, 73 per
cent of which was through duty free channels. Rubber Board does not foresee any shortage for the commodity as the
opening stock of rubber in 2011-12 was relatively high at 2,77,095 tonnes against 2,11,290 tonnes in 2010-11.
Meanwhile, the Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association (ATMA) has urged the rubber board to take steps to avoid
NEWS YOU CAN USE

delays in mandatory inspection of imported rubber which is affecting the raw material availability for manufacturers.
The onus of ensuring quality of imported rubber should lie with the manufacturers and not the government, ATMA
said.

The ministry of food and consumer affairs is not in favour of recommending a ban on forward trading of essential
commodities. The ministry is currently working on the final recommendations based on suggestions made by a
working group on consumer affairs headed by Narendra Modi and co-chaired by chief ministers of Maharashtra,
Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. These recommendations then will be sent to the Prime minister thereafter. The
working group had strongly recommended banning forward trading in essential commodities. The ministry, albeit is in
favour of many recommendations made by the working group, especially those on reforming the Agricultural Produce
Marketing Committees across states for bridging the gap between the wholesale and retail food prices and amending
the Essential Commodities Act to check hoarding.B C Khatua, chairman of FMC said: “Our presentation to the working
group was based on well founded facts and not mere sentiment. Today a farmer has multiple options for selling his
products- either in a mandi or a spot exchange . While we are continuing with our awareness programme, what is not
realised is that farmers need a sound price discovery system and thus, his interest is in futures market to plan and
execute pricing of his sale rather than just selling the products in the spot market.” However, we did not intervene
since higher margins would have affected the genuine domestic consumers who were anyway fighting higher prices
for procurement. Higher trade margins would have hurt genuine hedgers and traders.

Indian federal bond yields were little changed on Thursday as trader’s awaited weekly food and fuel inflation due
around 0630 GMT that could set the tone for the central bank's rate decision on Tuesday. The market has priced in
the possibility of a 25 basis points rate increase, but there is speculation the rise could be 50 basis points. The yield
on the 7.80 percent 2021 bond was steady at 8.09 percent after rising to 8.11 percent in early deals. A total of 75
basis points rate increase by the Reserve Bank of India in the remainder of 2011, or 25 bps more than they expected
in mid-March. Inflation concerns have been weighing on the market after March inflation came in at 9 percent, well
above an upwardly revised central bank target of 8 percent.

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