Daily Commodity Market Update as on Monday, May 16, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
GOLD 21951 21997 21922 21961 0.2
Precious metals are under pressure from a strengthening
SILVER 53750 54153 53661 53716 0.71
dollar, which was propped up by u.s. inflation data and
SPOT $
the euro dropped to a 6-week low against the dollar.
GOLD 1488.65 1493.65 1488.1 1491.1 -0.19
SILVER 35.27 35.39 34.76 35.09 -0.59
PLATINUM 1761.99 1759.24 1746.75 1758.25 0.01

ENERGY COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
Oil look weak as us lure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling may
CRUDE 4440 4476 4440 4467 0.87 unravel global finances and threaten growth in the world’s
N.GAS 191.4 192.4 190.8 191.4 0.47 biggest crude consumer. Natural gas rose as traders
viewed a report of a falling drilling rig count as an
SPOT $ opportunity to buy on the chance that production growth
in the well-supplied U.S. market may be slowing.
CRUDE 98.59 100.49 95.25 98.97 0.385435

BASEMETAL COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX Base metals inched up tracking a weaker U.S. dollar, with
COPPER 401 402.8 401 401.6 0.24 some investors betting on a recovery in the hope that last
ZINC 97.7 98.15 97.65 97.8 0.2 week's market selloff was overdone. But traders reported
NICKEL 1106.7 1110 1105.9 1108 0.2 a lack of conviction in the market, with participants
104 104.55 103.6 103.9 0.05 arguing that some more correction was on the cards.
LEAD
ALUMINIUM 115.7 116.35 115.65 116.15 0.09

LME LME STOCK

COPPER 8750 8813 8720 8780 -0.37 COPPER 800 468525
ZINC 2180 2180 2158.25 2164 -0.41 ZINC 2200 831250
NICKEL 24350 2578.75 24300 24400 0.16 NICKEL -330 114402
LEAD 2260.25 2320 2260.25 2310 0.43 LEAD 700 316525
ALUMINIUM 2571 2320 2555 2566.25 -0.19 ALUMINIUM 32075 4622825

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX
18492.68 5541.7 2379.24 1337.77 8371.67 12595.75 9573.68 2863.02 2106.47 22996.82 75.83
-0.21 -0.06 -1.19 -0.81 -1 -0.79 -0.82 -0.28 -0.64 -1.2 -0.08

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 OPEN
21951
HIGH
21997
MCX GOLD FUTURE

LOW
21922
CLOSE
21961
% CNG
0.2
VOLUME
2199
OI
11949
RE CNG
43

INTRADAY LEVELS
Gold settled firm Saturday after dropping Friday sharply reversing early gains, as a dollar surge
against the euro and renewed uncertainty about euro zone debt prompted investors to sell ahead of
P.P. 21960
the weekend. Gold is closing the week with gains at 21961. The metal traded in a wide range of
21700 to 22300 but after everything cleared we are right back to last Friday’s level. On the weekly SUP 1 RES 1
chart the metal remains in a large 3 year bull channel with parameters 21000 and 23000. On a 21923 21998
closer touch, the metal is holding above a 3 month support line seen today at 21600. Price action of SUP 2 RES 2
the past two weeks off 22850 record high has been bearish. We will need to reclaim 22300 on a
21885 22035
close basis to take the pressure off our down side risk. Now technically market is trading in the
range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 52.7, where as 50DMA is at 21597.54 and gold is SUP 3 RES 3
trading above the same and getting support at 21923 and below could see a test of 21885 level, And 21848 22073

OPEN
53750
MCX SILVER FUTURE

HIGH
54153
LOW
53661
CLOSE
53716
% CNG
0.71
VOLUME
3657
OI
13094
RE CNG
383

INTRADAY LEVELS
Silver continued to recover on short covering from last week's correction, and technical charts
suggested the metal could stabilize after bouncing off a key support level. Silver is closing the week
P.P. 53843
lower at 53716. This week we saw an early bounce to the 38.2% retracement level of 59950 before
setting fresh lows to 49751. We have an 8 month support line at 49500 drawn off the August and SUP 1 RES 1
January lows. A break of this opens up a return to 40000. The Gold Silver ratio is closing higher for 53534 54026
the third week in a row at 42.69. The key topside resistance is seen at 45.68 which is the 38.2% SUP 2 RES 2
Fibo of the 68.34 to 31.68 down move. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for
53351 54335
18days is currently indicating 39.08, where as 50DMA is at 60173.14 and silver is trading below the
same and getting support at 53534 and below could see a test of 53351 level, And resistance is now SUP 3 RES 3
likely to be seen at 54026, a move above could see prices testing 54335. 53042 54518

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 OPEN
4440
HIGH
MCX CRUDE FUTURE

4476
LOW
4440
CLOSE
4467
% CNG
0.87
VOLUME
3288
OI
9244
RE CNG
39

INTRADAY LEVELS
Crude rose on short-covering to end higher, after falling Friday as the dollar rose and on reports that
Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi had been wounded. Reports that Gaddafi had been wounded helped P.P. 4461
pressure prices, even though it was quickly denied by a Libyan government spokesman. China will SUP 1 RES 1
suspend exporting diesel to conserve supplies ahead of a looming summer power crunch, signaling it
4446 4482
may need net imports to cover surging demand. The move should support Asian diesel cracks that
have fallen sharply from April on a resumption of Japanese exports. Now technically market is SUP 2 RES 2
trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 37.65, where as 50DMA is at 4811.5 4425 4497
and crude is trading below the same and getting support at 4446 and below could see a test of 4425 SUP 3 RES 3
level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4482, a move above could see prices testing 4497.
4410 4518

OPEN
401
MCX COPPER FUTURE

HIGH
402.8
LOW
401
CLOSE
401.6
% CNG
0.24
VOLUME
2737
OI
22214
RE CNG
0.95

INTRADAY LEVELS
Copper ended positive as weak dollar helped to spurn the negative tone set by other commodities
and settle higher despite further credit-tightening measures in China. The metal shrugged off China's
P.P. 401.8
move late Thursday to raise banks' reserve ratio requirement for the fifth time this year, as such a
move had been widely anticipated and factored into prices over the past few sessions. Copper SUP 1 RES 1
stockpiles at bonded warehouses in Shanghai have fallen from a record since the beginning of May 400.8 402.6
as consumers in the world’s largest user of the metal draw down inventories. Stocks of copper in SUP 2 RES 2
LME warehouses rose to 468,525 tonnes, nearly 35 percent above levels seen early in December.
400.0 403.6
For today's session market is looking to take support at 400.8, a break below could see a test of 400
and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 402.6, a move above could see prices testing SUP 3 RES 3
403.6. 399.0 404.4

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 OPEN
97.7
HIGH
98.15
MCX ZINC FUTURE

LOW
97.65
CLOSE
97.8
% CNG
0.2
VOLUME
475
OI
7521
RE CNG
0.2

INTRADAY LEVELS

Zinc gained on expectation that China, the largest user, may slow the pace of monetary tightening P.P. 97.9
after ordering banks to set aside more cash for the fifth time this year. Hefty inventory levels of SUP 1 RES 1
Zinc, which are now hovering around 16 year highs will not let prices of Zinc move sharply higher in
97.6 98.1
coming days. The inventories on LME are now at 831250 tonnes. In yesterday's trading session zinc
has touched the low of 97.65 after opening at 97.7, and finally settled at 97.8. For today's session SUP 2 RES 2
market is looking to take support at 97.6, a break below could see a test of 97.4 and where as 97.4 98.4
resistance is now likely to be seen at 98.1, a move above could see prices testing 98.4. SUP 3 RES 3
97.1 98.6

OPEN
1107
MCX NICKEL FUTURE

HIGH
1110
LOW
1106
CLOSE
1108
% CNG
0.2
VOLUME
777
OI
5610
RE CNG
2.2

INTRADAY LEVELS
Nickel yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.2% up at 1108 tracking gains in other
P.P. 1108
base metals counters. Some support had been seen from the LME stock also which came down by -
330mt, the total stock at LME is now at 114402mt. U.S. nickel exports rose 127.9% in March from SUP 1 RES 1
the previous month, but was down 17.2% from the previous year, the Commerce Department 1106 1110
reported. In yesterday's trading session nickel has touched the low of 1105.9 after opening at SUP 2 RES 2
1106.7, and finally settled at 1108. For today's session market is looking to take support at 1105.9,
1104 1112
a break below could see a test of 1103.9 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 1110, a
move above could see prices testing 1112.1. SUP 3 RES 3
1102 1114

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MCX ALUMINIUM FUTURE
OPEN
115.7
HIGH
116.35
LOW
115.65
CLOSE
116.15
% CNG
0.09
VOLUME
95
OI
2825
RE CNG
0.1

INTRADAY LEVELS
Aluminium yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.09% up at 116.15. Some pressure
had been seen from the LME stock also which came up by 32075mt, the total stock at LME is now at P.P. 116.1
4622825mt. LME stocks of aluminium rose by 32,075 tonnes to 4,622,825 tonnes within touching SUP 1 RES 1
distance of the record high above 4.64 million tonnes hit in January 2010. In China, Unwrought
115.8 116.5
Aluminium and product imports in China stood at 76724 tonnes in April as against 87729 tonnes in
March down 12.5%. In yesterday's trading session aluminium has touched the low of 115.65 after SUP 2 RES 2
opening at 115.7, and finally settled at 116.15. For today's session market is looking to take support 115.4 116.8
at 115.8, a break below could see a test of 115.4 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at SUP 3 RES 3
116.5, a move above could see prices testing 116.8.
115.1 117.2

OPEN
MCX NAT.GAS FUTURE

191.4
HIGH
192.4
LOW
190.8
CLOSE
191.4
% CNG
0.47
VOLUME
911
OI
3748
RE CNG
0.9

INTRADAY LEVELS
Natural gas yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.47% up at 191.4 as traders
viewed a report of a falling drilling rig count as an opportunity to buy on the chance that production
P.P. 191.5
growth in the well-supplied U.S. market may be slowing. The EIA said this week that though gas in
storage is near average, high production and less demand than was seen during last year's SUP 1 RES 1
unusually hot summer should push supplies to a record 3.9 trillion cubic feet by the end of October. 190.7 192.3
There were 874 rigs targeting natural gas in the U.S. this week, oil-field services provider Baker SUP 2 RES 2
Hughes Inc. (BHI) said, down 16 from the previous week and the fewest since January 2010. For
189.9 193.1
today's session market is looking to take support at 190.7, a break below could see a test of 189.9
and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 192.3, a move above could see prices testing SUP 3 RES 3
193.1. 189.1 193.9

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 ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

DAILY SPREAD IN GOLD - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN SILVER - MCX

MONTH RATE JUNE AUG OCT MONTH RATE JULY SEPT DEC
JUNE 21961 293 624 JULY 53716 695 1464
AUG 22254 331 SEPT 54411 769
OCT 22585 DEC 55180
Spread between Gold JUN & AUG contracts yesterday Spread between Silver JUL & SEP contracts yesterday
ended at 293, we have seen yesterday that the gold ended at 695, we have seen yesterday that the silver
market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.2% market had traded with a positive node and settled
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 277 - 322. 0.71% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 688 -
1195.

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX

MONTH RATE MAY JUNE JULY MONTH RATE JUNE AUG
MAY 4467 52 99 JUNE 401.6 5.1
JUNE 4519 47 AUG 406.7
JULY 4566
Spread between crude APR & MAY contracts yesterday Spread between copper JUN & AUG contracts yesterday
SPREAD MARKET

ended at 52, we have seen yesterday that the crude ended at 5.1, we have seen yesterday that the copper
market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.87% market had traded with a positive node and settled
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 52 - 67. 0.24% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 5.05 -
5.65.

DAILY SPREAD IN ZINC - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN NICKEL - MCX

MONTH RATE MAY JUNE MONTH RATE MAY JUNE
MAY 97.8 1.3 MAY 1108 10.5
JUNE 99.1 JUNE 1118.5

Spread between zinc MAY & JUN contracts yesterday Spread between nickel MAY & JUN contracts yesterday
ended at 1.3, we have seen yesterday that the zinc ended at 10.50, we have seen yesterday that the nickel
market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.2% market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.2%
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1 - 1.35. up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 9.20 - 11.

DAILY SPREAD IN NAT. GAS - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN MENTHOL - MCX

MONTH RATE MAY JUNE MONTH RATE MAY JUNE
MAY 191.4 4.5 MAY 923.2 -38.7
JUNE 195.9 JUNE 884.5

Spread between natural gas MAY & JUN contracts
yesterday ended at 4.50, we have seen yesterday that the
natural gas market had traded with a positive node and
settled 0.47% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of
4.4 - 5.1.
Spread between menthol oil MAY & JUN contracts
yesterday ended at -38.70, we have seen yesterday that
the menthol oil market had traded with a negative node
and settled -1.4% down. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of -58.9 to -38.1.

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 DAY TIME CURRENCY DATA Forecast Previous
ECONOMICAL

1:30pm EUR Italian Trade Balance -2.29B -3.63B

2:30pm EUR CPI y/y 0.028 0.028
2:30pm EUR Core CPI y/y 0.015 0.013
DATA

2:30pm EUR Trade Balance 1.7B -2.4B

6:00pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 20.7 21.7
6:30pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 0 0
Mon 6:30pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 57.7B 26.9B
7:30pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 17 16
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

Wheat procurement by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and State agencies for the ongoing 2011-12 rabi
marketing season (April-June) has touched 217.37 lakh tonnes (lt), according to the Food Ministry data compiled.
The 217.37 lt is more than the 209.91 lt bought during the corresponding period of 2010-11. Procurement has been
higher in Punjab (102.58 lt against 100.83 lt), Haryana (64.14 lt against 62.93 lt), Madhya Pradesh (34 lt against
30.01 lt) and Rajasthan (6.89 lt against 4.31 lt), while trailing in Uttar Pradesh (8.77 lt against 10.54 lt). During the
entire 2010-11 season, Government agencies procured 225.14 lt of wheat, which is likely to be surpassed this time.
In fact, Food Ministry officials project total procurement to cross 260 lt, which, on top of opening stocks of 153.64 lt
on April 1, is likely to cause major storage problems for the FCI. Even assuming a depletion of 50-55 lt during April-
June, the total wheat stock in the Central will be around 360 lt on July 1, which is way above the required minimum
NEWS YOU CAN USE

buffer and strategic reserve of 201 lt for that date.

To bridge the gap between natural rubber production and consumption, the rubber consuming interests have called
upon the Government to explore avenues for land acquisition outside the country for new plantation initiatives. As the
availability of land is limited in traditional rubber growing areas, the All India Rubber Industries Association (AIRIA)
and the Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association (ATMA) stressed the need to evolve a new model, including PPP,
to intensify rubber cultivation in non-traditional areas in the North-East. Making a presentation to the Rubber Board
for 12{+t}{+h} Five Year Plan proposals on the sector, they stated that taking cue from China urgent policy
interventions are imperative to ensure timely and competitively priced availability of natural rubber to user industries.
India should take up integrated project on the lines of Rubber Valley project in China so as to replicate the concept of
‘farm to fork' for rubber by covering the complete value chain from plantation stock to finished products. The Rubber
Board had projected increase in natural rubber consumption by 40,000 tonnes (from 8.62 lakh tonnes to 9.02 lakh
tonnes) for 2011-12.

Federal bond yields continued to trade marginally higher in afternoon session on Friday as traders awaited results of
the Rs 120 billion debt sale due later in the day for cues ahead of the April inflation data on Monday. The yield on the
10-year benchmark bond was up 2 basis points at 8.23 percent while the most-traded 8.13 percent, 2022 bond yield
was 3 bps higher at 8.39 percent. India's wholesale price index likely rose 8.43 percent in April from a year earlier,
slower than March's 8.98 percent increase due to base effect, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday. The benchmark 5-
year swap rate was steady at 8.23 percent while the one-year rate was 5 bps higher at 8.08 percent. Traders said a
rise in global crude prices was also weighing on market sentiment as it could adversly affect domestic inflationary
expectations.

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