ASSIGNMENT 2

Total Gross Value Added at Constant Prices Quarterly data is collected from RBI
website
3500000
Total Gross Value Added at Basic Price
2000000 2500000 3000000

2011q1 2013q3 2016q1 2018q3 2021q1

date

a) Yes, there is an upward trend.

b) Yes, seasonal effect is present. We observe that there is a secondary cycle of up-down
along with the trend in the data.
c) The data is stationary as we reject the Null Hypothesis, the test p-value is less than
equal to 0.05.

Dickey-Fuller test for unit root Number of obs = 40

Interpolated Dickey-Fuller
Test 1% Critical 5% Critical 10% Critical
Statistic Value Value Value

Z(t) -3.993 -4.242 -3.540 -3.204

MacKinnon approximate p-value for Z(t) = 0.0090

Total Gross Value Added at Current Prices Quarterly data is collected from RBI
website
5000000
Total Gross Value Added at Basic Price
2000000 3000000 4000000

2011q1 2013q3 2016q1 2018q3 2021q1

date

a) Yes, there is an upward trend.

b) Yes, seasonal effect is present. We observe that there is a secondary cycle of up-down
along with the trend in the data.

c) The data is stationary as we reject the Null Hypothesis, the test p-value is less than
equal to 0.05.

Dickey-Fuller test for unit root Number of obs = 40

Interpolated Dickey-Fuller
Test 1% Critical 5% Critical 10% Critical
Statistic Value Value Value

Z(t) -4.490 -4.242 -3.540 -3.204

MacKinnon approximate p-value for Z(t) = 0.0016

Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices (at Constant Prices)
4000000 3500000
GDP at market prices
2500000 3000000
2000000

2011q1 2013q3 2016q1 2018q3 2021q1

date

a) Yes, there is an upward trend.

b) Yes, seasonal effect is present. We observe that there is a secondary cycle of up-down
along with the trend in the data.
c) The data is stationary as we reject the Null Hypothesis, the test p-value is less than
equal to 0.05.
Dickey-Fuller test for unit root Number of obs = 40

Interpolated Dickey-Fuller
Test 1% Critical 5% Critical 10% Critical
Statistic Value Value Value

Z(t) -4.662 -4.242 -3.540 -3.204

MacKinnon approximate p-value for Z(t) = 0.0008

Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices (at Current Prices)
6000000 5000000
GDP at market prices
3000000 4000000
2000000

2011q1 2013q3 2016q1 2018q3 2021q1

date

a) Yes, there is an upward trend.

b) Yes, seasonal effect is present. We observe that there is a secondary cycle of up-down
along with the trend in the data.
c) The data is stationary as we reject the Null Hypothesis, the test p-value is less than
equal to 0.05.
Dickey-Fuller test for unit root Number of obs = 40

Interpolated Dickey-Fuller
Test 1% Critical 5% Critical 10% Critical
Statistic Value Value Value

Z(t) -4.841 -4.242 -3.540 -3.204

MacKinnon approximate p-value for Z(t) = 0.0004

Total Gross Value Added at Constant Prices Yearly data is collected from RBI website
8000000 10000000 12000000 14000000
GDP GVA Constant Prices
6000000

2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

a) Yes, there is an upward trend.

b) There is no seasonal effect seen from graph.
c) The data is not stationary. The p-value is greater than 0.05, thus we cannot reject the
Null Hypothesis of Data is not stationary.
Dickey-Fuller test for unit root Number of obs = 16

Interpolated Dickey-Fuller
Test 1% Critical 5% Critical 10% Critical
Statistic Value Value Value

Z(t) -0.624 -3.750 -3.000 -2.630

MacKinnon approximate p-value for Z(t) = 0.8655

The data can be made stationary by differencing.

Total Gross Value Added at Current Prices Yearly data is collected from RBI website
20000000
15000000
GDP GVA Current Prices
10000000 5000000

2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

a) Yes, there is an uptrend in the data.

b) There are no seasonal impacts seen from the graph.
c) The data is not stationary as confirmed by the Dickey Fuller test.
Dickey-Fuller test for unit root Number of obs = 16

Interpolated Dickey-Fuller
Test 1% Critical 5% Critical 10% Critical
Statistic Value Value Value

Z(t) 0.720 -3.750 -3.000 -2.630

MacKinnon approximate p-value for Z(t) = 0.9902

Estimates of Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices (at Constant Prices)
8000000 10000000 12000000 14000000
GDP MP Constant Prices
6000000

2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

a) There is an upward trend in the data.

b) There are no seasonality impacts seen in the yearly data.
c) The data is not stationary as we are unable to reject the Null Hypothesis of the
Augmented Dickey Fuller Test.
Dickey-Fuller test for unit root Number of obs = 16

Interpolated Dickey-Fuller
Test 1% Critical 5% Critical 10% Critical
Statistic Value Value Value

Z(t) -0.624 -3.750 -3.000 -2.630

MacKinnon approximate p-value for Z(t) = 0.8655

The data can be made stationary with the help of differencing.

Estimates of Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices (at Current Prices)
20000000
15000000
GDP MP Current Prices
100000005000000

2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

a) Yes, there is an upward trend in the data.

b) There are no seasonal impacts in the data.
c) The data is not stationary as the Augmented Dickey Fuller test has a p-value of
greater than 0.05, and we are unable to reject the Null Hypothesis of data is not
stationary.
Dickey-Fuller test for unit root Number of obs = 16

Interpolated Dickey-Fuller
Test 1% Critical 5% Critical 10% Critical
Statistic Value Value Value

Z(t) -2.321 -4.380 -3.600 -3.240

MacKinnon approximate p-value for Z(t) = 0.4221