PROJECT PROPOSAL

ON

“EFFECT OF FLOOD ON BUSINESSES IN SWAT”

Date: 10-05-2011
1.1 Introduction:

In Pakistan, monsoon1 rains usually begin in July. However, in last year July
2010 Pakistan witnessed the most destructive monsoon rains in the history of the
country. The rains resulted in extreme floods in rivers and seasonal nullahs
inundating villages, roads, orchards and standing crops directly affecting one tenth
total population in 71 districts of the country. According to the United Nations, floods
affected about 62,000 square miles area. The affected area is one-fifth of the total land
area of Pakistan. The floodwater engulfed thousands of communities and isolated
many others, claiming 1,600 lives and affected 20 million people damaging 1.8 million
houses. According to Pakistani government data the floods directly affected about 20
million people, mostly by destruction of property, livelihood and infrastructure, with
a death toll of close to 2,0002.

The lush green and historic Swat Valley lies between 34°-40 to 35° N latitude
and 72 to 74°-6 E longitude and is part of the Provincially Administrated Tribal Area
(PATA) of the Khyber Pukhtoon Khuwa of Pakistan. The valley is an integral part of
the strategic and significant region where three parts of the Asian continent–South
Asia, Central Asia and China, meet. Swat Valley is located approximately 160
kilometers northwest of Islamabad, Pakistan. District Swat consists of two tehsils
having estimated populations around 179,340 persons (with population density of
336 persons per square kilometer). For many years, Swat remained a peaceful
destination. However, in mid-1990s, militants gained control over much of the
district, and years later, in May 2009, military operations against insurgents resulted
in the exodus of hundreds of thousands of people from Swat. During these periods of
1
A monsoon is described as a shift in wind direction that causes excessive rainfall in many parts of the
world including Asia, North America, South America and Africa. Shifts in global wind patterns are
generally considered to be the primary mechanism behind the development of a monsoon. During non-
monsoonal months, winds normally blow from land to ocean, which makes the air dry. During certain
months of the year, the wind pattern shifts and begins to blow from the ocean to land, making the air
moist. This moist ocean air is what causes monsoonal rains over many countries.
2
Singapore Red Cross (September 15, 2010). "Pakistan Floods:The Deluge of Disaster - Facts & Figures
as of 15 September 2010". Retrieved October 18, 2010
conflict and displacement, the people of Swat suffered both physical and financial
losses. In late 2009 and early 2010, many of those displaced returned to Swat, and
conflict-affected families began to rebuild their lives.

On July 27, 2010, monsoon rains started in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province,

causing floods and damage in many areas of Swat. The situation worsened as the
downpour continued for two days. The main road from Mingora to Khwazakhela,
which leads to Madyam, Bahrain and Kalam, is entirely broken off in many places.
Entire sections of the road from Fatehpur till Madyam have collapsed. There has been
no electricity or water supply since July 28, and it seems unlikely they will be
restored in the next few weeks. At least 26 interlinking bridges between communities
are damaged, hence the roads within different parts of Swat are disconnected making
any road transportation impossible which ultimately affect the businesses in main
mingora city. The reason behind this is that most of the farmers use to bring all their
vegitables, fruits, and others accecsories to sell in moingors market but due to flood
and damaged infrastructure business market collapsed.

As mentioned realier and in some other reports the impact of flood has been

two-fold in the Swat Valley: On the one hand, it has destroyed infrastructure,
disrupting the social fabric, and on the other it washed away valuable farmland and
standing crops, rendering the already poor people without any means to survive,
making their lives more miserable. According to one estimate, 28,000 acres of
agricultural land has been washed away, including 10,000 acres over which
vegetables used to grow. Most farmers here grew tomato, cabbage, turnip, peas,
spinach, potatoes and rice, earning them a handsome livelihood and fulfilling the
demand of nearby markets, But floods have not only destroyed the crops, but also
rendered the farmers unemployed and without a means to survive the hard times 3.
1.2 Literature review:
3
Kamal Hyder (2010-09-01). "As Pakistan drowns, its leaders fight | Al Jazeera Blogs".
Blogs.aljazeera.net. Retrieved 2010-12-05.
"Millions of Pakistan children at risk of flood diseases". BBC News Online. 16 August 2010. Retrieved
16 August 2010.
YUBA CITY, LINDA, AND OLIVEHURST, CALIFORNIA FLOODS

Throughout the 1990s levee breaks have caused severe floods in communities
that are not formally in the designated floodplains. The levee construction removed
these communities from floodplain maps and cleared the way for residential
development. In 1986 and 1997 serious floods did occur. Montz and Tobin (1997a)
are studying how the floods have affected real estate prices. They found that in
houses that had been completely inundated at a depth of 10 feet, housing prices have
not recovered to preflood levels. Some houses with some flooding did appreciate in
price more than other houses in a particular neighborhood because all the appliances,
floors, furnaces, and other features were new following the flood. Montz and Tobin do
recognize that the flooding is only one factor in determining the house prices. Other
factors including the healthiness of the local and regional economies, changes in the
local growth patterns, mortgage interest rates and other factors are also important
factors. And, their effects cannot effectively be separated from the effects of the
floods. They also wonder how long the floods will continue to have an effect on the
housing prices.

1993 MIDWESTERN U.S. FLOODS

Damages from the l993 flood in the Midwest exceeded $18 billion. The flood
inundated 10,300 square miles in nine states and 52 people lost their lives. There is
uncertainty about whether these events qualified as 50 year, 100 year or 500 year
events. The 1993 floods had winners and losers among residents, businesses,
agriculture, and industry (Changnon, 1996:283). Initial flood loss estimates were
between $12 and 15.7 billion. Although regional impacts in the nine-state area were
extreme, flood losses in the national economy were not noticeable (Changnon 1996;
Amato and Timmerman, 1995.) The Changnon study highlights the losses from the
1993 floods but also indicates there were winners as well as losers. For example,
many nonflooded Midwestern farmers benefited by higher grain prices brought about
by the floods (Changnon, 1996:284). Even though there were extensive warnings
before the floods, only 10 per cent of insurable properties had flood insurance
coverage (Changnon, 1996:257). The availability of disaster assistance is perceived to
be a disincentive for buying flood insurance. If the government is going to bailout
flood victims, why should anyone buy flood insurance? At the turn of the century
national attention is finally being directed at reducing cancelled. Flood bailout
payments to communities and properties that are chronically flooded (Conrad, 1997).

The flood did not change the nation’s gross domestic product in 1993 but it was
expected to increase the gross domestic product by .01 percent in 1994 due to
expenditures for flood repairs. One of the greatest flood problems was the damage to
surface river transportation systems. Barge traffic was halted. Changnon (1996:285)
wrote:
"It took three to nine months after the flood for the stocks of most of the barge-
dependent shippers and receivers to return to normal”

Many tourists changed plans and did not visit the region because of the
extensive media coverage of the floods. The losses to businesses engaged in tourism
are estimated to be between 15 and 34 percent of the annual $1.2 billion spent each
year (Changnon, 1996:289). These figures are complex and flood loss data are not
precise but they do provide a picture of the flood impacts.

1997 GRAND FORKS, NORTH DAKOTA, U.S.

When the spring flood receded, the city of 50,000 had sustained more than $1 billion
in damage. Of its 11,000 houses, 8,000 were damaged, and another 750 lost outright.
Hundreds of businesses suffered serious losses. Most churches, schools, and public
institutions were closed. Grand Forks endured the largest per capita disaster in U.S.
history (Findley, 1998). With 20 percent of its downtown commercial buildings
burned, and the rest with neck-high water damage on the ground floor, the citizens of
Grand Forks had to decide whether to abandon the traumatized downtown or rebuild
it. They decided to rebuild (Findley, 1998).
More than 80 per cent of the city was inundated and nearly every citizen was
evacuated. City council member Glassheim writes that in a time of unexpected
disaster, people yearn for simple, decisive answers that will give them hope and
encourage them to rise above the loss. He notes however, that people prefer
unpleasant facts to uncertain or overly complex responses.

1.2 Statement of the Problem:

Flood has affected all over Pakistan and has resulted in a great damage to
properties, fields and human lives. The main purpose of the study is to understand
the effect of flood on businesses in Swat Mingora City.

1.3 Purpose of the Study

The main purpose of the study is to understand the disaster made by flood in swat
specifically in mingora city area.

1.4 Sample size:

A total of 80 shopkeeper will be questioned about the effect of Flood on their
business in mingora city.

1.5 Sampling technique:

For the collection of data convenient sampling technique will be use because of time
and resource constraints.

1.6 Scope of the study:

In this study the researcher intends to measure the effect of flood on business in swat
mingora city. This study will only measure the flood effect in swat specifically in mingora city.

1.7 Methodology:

The data will be collected through questionnaire to be administered personally using

prior contacts. Questionnaire seems reasonable tool for this study as it allows researcher to
collect the required data in short span of time. Moreover, it can be pretested to make
necessary modifications afterwards.

1.8 Data Analysis:

Descriptive statistics will be used to make sense of the data. In addition, charts and
graphs will be used for data presentation.

1.9 Limitations:
Some of the offices or shopkeepers will surely avoid telling the facts. Also they might
not even cooperate in giving off a sample for test but it will be made sure that no chance is
lost and efforts are made wherever needed.

There can be certain other limitations:

 This study will be confined to Mingora City. The results drawn may not be generalize
to other regions.

 The study in question is an analysis of business in swat at a particular time that may
not show any changes over time.

 The sample wil be drawn on the basis of convenience sampling and as such the
respondents may not be representative thus putting external validity (generalization)
in question.
References:
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Work and Family Encyclopedia entry. Retrieved May 10, 2007, from the Sloan
Work and Family Research Network.
2. Economic Survey of Pakistan. 2006-07
3. SUKUMAR M.Com., M.Phil Coimbatore, TamilNadu. “A study of Employee
satisfaction in the professional couriers in Coimbatore city”.
4. Dutta Roy, D. and Deb, N.C. (1996) Differential patterns of state anxietyof
scientists during Antarctic expedition, Journal of Indian Academy of Applied
Psychology, 22, 1-2,43-45. Hoppock, R. (1935) Job satisfaction, N.Y., Harper.
5. Pestonjee D. M. “Motivation and Job Satisfaction”, 1 st Edition. Macmillan India
Limited.
6. Mayo, Elton. [1933] 2001. The Human Problems of an Industrial Civilization:
Early Sociology of Management and Organizations. Routledge. ISBN
0415279887
7. Frederick W. Taylor Published in Norton Library 1967 by arrangement with
Harper & Row, Publishers, Incorporated, by W. W. Norton & Company, Inc.,
500 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10110.