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Baseline Life-Cycle Portfolio Choice Model 3.1. Model Setup
Baseline Life-Cycle Portfolio Choice Model 3.1. Model Setup
Baseline Life-Cycle Portfolio Choice Model 3.1. Model Setup
From Equations 11 and 12, we conclude that the net effect depends on the sign and magnitude
of the correlation between stock returns and labor income shocks.3 The estimates of this correla-
tion by Campbell et al. (2001) and Davis & Willen (2013) are very close to zero for the average
household, indicating that labor income is a closer substitute for riskless bonds than for stocks.
In classical portfolio choice theory, idiosyncratic risk is irrelevant because all wealth is trade-
able and therefore agents can hold a diversified portfolio. However, labor income risk is largely
undiversifiable, i.e., agents cannot trade assets or write contracts to insure it, and this gives rise to
a background risk effect. Under fairly common assumptions about investor preferences (see Pratt
Annu. Rev. Financ. Econ. 2020.12:277-304. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org
& Zeckhauser 1987, Kimball 1993, Gollier & Pratt 1996), labor income risk or any other source
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of background risk (e.g., expenditure shocks) crowds out asset allocation risk, i.e., implies a more
conservative portfolio allocation. Viceira (2001) extends this result to infinite horizon models with
portfolio choice and intermediate consumption. Readers are also referred to work by Heaton &
Lucas (1996) and Haliassos & Michaelides (2003).
3 This simple static model suggests the following rule of thumb: If the correlation between labor income and
stock returns is lower (higher) than 0.5, the portfolio share invested in stocks is increased (decreased) by the
presence of labor income. But such a rule ignores the background risk effect discussed below and, since the
stochastic process for labor income is not i.i.d., in a multiperiod model the correlation structure is often more
complex.
4 For earlier life-cycle savings models without portfolio choice, readers are referred to Hubbard, Skinner &
280 Gomes