Basic Concepts

Lesson 1: Fundamental Concepts

1. Probability can be defined as the mathematics of chance.

2. A probability experiment is a chance process that leads to well-defined outcomes.

3. An outcome of a probability experiment is the result of a single trial of a probability

experiment.

4. A sample space is the set of all outcomes of a probability experiment.

5. An event usually consists of one or more outcomes of the sample space.

6. An event with one outcome is called a simple event.

When an event consists of two or more outcomes, it is called a compound event.

Lesson 2: Classical Probability

Classical probability uses sample spaces to determine the numerical probability that an event
will occur.

number of outcomes contained ∈the event E

Formula: P(E) = ,Type equation here . where P(E) is the
total number of outcomes∈the sample space
probability of event E.

Note: Probabilities can be expressed as reduced fractions, decimals, or percents.

Classical Probability Theory Rules

Rule 1: The probability of any events will always be a number from zero to one.
Mathematically, 0≤P(E) ≤ 1.
Rule 2: When an event cannot occur, the probability will be zero.

Rule 3: When an event is certain to occur, the probability is 1.

Rule 4: The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space is 1.

Rule 5: The probability that an event will not occur is equal to 1 minus the probability that the
event will occur. This can be stated mathematically as P(E)= 1–P(E); where the E, called the
complement of event E, consists of the outcomes in the sample space which are not outcomes
of event E.

Lesson 3: Empirical Probability

Empirical probability uses frequency distributions instead of sample spaces.

Examples: Suppose a class of students consists of 4 freshmen, 8 sophomores, 6 juniors, and 7

seniors. The information can be summarized in a frequency distributions as follows:

Rank Frequency

Freshmen 4

Sophomores 8

Juniors 6

Seniors 7

TOTAL 25

frequency of E
Formula: P(E) =
∑ of the frequencies

Empirical probability is sometimes called relative frequency probability.

Lesson 4: Subjective Probability

Subjective probability is based upon an educated, opinion, or inexact information.

Example: A sports writer may say that there is a 30% probability that the Pittsburgh Steelers
will be in the Super Bowl next year. Here the sports writer is basing his opinion on subjective
information such as the relative strength of the Steelers, their opponents, their coach, etc.

Basic Concepts

Exercise 1.1: Classical Probability

1. A box contains a $1 bill, a $2 bill, a $5 bill, a $10 bill, and a $20 bill. A person selects a bill at
random. Find each probability:

a) The bill selected is a $10 bill. 1/5

b) The denomination of the bill selected is more than $2. 3/5
c) The bill selected is a $50 bill. 0
d) The bill selected is of an odd denomination. 2/5
e) The denomination of the bill is divisible by 5. 3/5

2. A single die is rolled. Find each probability:

a) The number shown on the face is a 2. 1/6

b) The number shown on the face is greater than 2. 4/6 or 2/3
c) The number shown on the face is less than 1. 0
d) The number shown on the face is odd. 2/6 or 1/2

3. A spinner for a child's game has the numbers 1 through 9 evenly spaced. If a child spins, find
each probability:

a) The number is divisible by 3. 3/9 or 1/3

b) The number is greater than 7. 2/9

c) The number is an even number. 4/9

4. Two coins are tossed. Find each probability:

a) Getting two tails. 1/4

b) Getting at least one head. 3/4

 c) Getting two heads. 1/4

5. The cards A of hearts, 2 of diamonds, 3 of clubs, 4 of hearts, 5 of spades, nd 6 of clubs are

shuffled and dealt face down on a table. (Hearts and diamonds are red, and clubs and spades
are black.) If a person selects one card at random, find the probability that the card is:

a) The 4 of hearts. 1/6

b) A red card. 3/6 or 1/2

c) A club. 2/6 or 1/3

Exercise 1.2: Empirical Probability

1. A recent survey found that the ages of workers in a factory is distributed as follows:

Age Number

20-29 18

30-39 27

40-49 36

50-59 16

60 or older 3

TOTAL 100

If a person is selected at random, find the probability that the person is:

a) 40 or older. 55/100 or 11/20

b) Under 40 years old. 45/100 or 9/20

c) Between 30 and 39 years old. 27/100

d) Under 60 but over 39 years old. 13/25

2. In a sample of 50 people, 19 had type O, 22 had type A blood, 7 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. If a person is selected at random, find the probability that the person is:

a) Has type A blood. 22/50 or 11/25

b) Has type B or type AB blood. 9/50

c) Does not have type O blood. 31/50

d) Has neither type A nor type O blood. 9/50

3. In a recent survey of 336 children aged 19-24 months, it was found that 89 ate French
fries. If a child is selected at random, find the probability that he or she eats French fries.
89/356 or 1/4

4. In a classroom of 36 students. 8 were liberal arts majors and 7 were history majors. If
a student is selected at random, find the probability that the student is neither a liberal
arts nor a history major. 21/36

5. A recent survey found that 74% of those questioned get some of the news from the
Internet. If a person is selected at random, find the probability that the person does not
get any news from the Internet. 26%