PROBABILITY & STATISITICS

[MAT 1022]

Assignment # 1 – 2nd Semester

BS(CS) - 2020

SUBMITTED TO: Ms. SYEDA TOOBA KAZMI

SUBMITTED BY: TAZEEN NASIR

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Question 1:
Dom’s Pizza Company uses taste testing and statistical analysis of the data prior to
marketing any new product. Consider a study involving three types of crusts (thin, thin
with garlic and oregano, and thin with bits of cheese). Dom’s is also studying three
sauces (standard, a new sauce with more garlic, and a new sauce with fresh basil).
(a) How many combinations of crust and sauce are involved?
(b) What is the probability that a judge will get a plain thin crust with a standard
sauce for his first taste test?
Solution:
m1 = 3 (types of crusts)
m2 = 3 (types of sauces)
a) If an operation can be performend in m1 ways and if for each of these a second
operation can be performed in m2 ways then the sequence of these operation can
be performed in m1.m2 ways. So,
Total combination involved = m1 . m2 = 3 × 3 = 9

b) A plain thin crust with a standard sauce 1 of 9 different equally outcome.So,

Probability = P(E) = 1 / 9 = 0.111

Question 2:
A town has two fire engines operating independently. The probability that a specific
engine is available when needed is 0.96.
a) What is the probability that neither is available when needed?
b) What is the probability that a fire engine is available when needed?
Solution:
Let A and B represent the availability of two fire engines
a) Neither is avaialbe when needed
P(Aʹ ∩ Bʹ) = P(Aʹ).P(Bʹ) = (0.04) × (0.04) = 0.0016
b) Probability of a fire engine is available when needed
P(A ∪ B) = 1 - P(Aʹ ∩ Bʹ) = 1 － 0.0016 = 0.9984

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Question 3:
A paint-store chain produces and sells latex and semigloss paint. Based on long-range
sales, the probability that a customer will purchase latex paint is 0.75. Of those that
purchase latex paint, 60% also purchase rollers. But only 30% of semigloss paint
buyers purchase rollers. A randomly selected buyer purchases a roller and a can of
paint. What is the probability that the paint is latex?
Solution:
Let
L : customer purchase latex paint
P( L)  0.75
S : customer purchase semigloss paint
P ( S )  1  P ( L)  1  0.75  0.25
R : customer purchase rollers
P ( R | L)  60%  0.6
P ( R | S )  30%  0.3

P ( S | L).P ( L)
P( L | S ) 
P ( S | L).P ( L)  P ( R | S ).P ( S )
(0.6)  (0.3)

(0.6)  (0.75)  (0.3)  (0.25)
0.45

0.525
 0.8571

Hence, the required probability is 0.8571.

Question 4:
From 4 red, 5 green, and 6 yellow apples, how many selections of 9 apples are
possible if 3 of each color are to be selected?
Solution:
We have 4 red apples, 5 green apples and 6 yellow apples.
The order in which apples is choose is not important. So, we can apply combinations
formula here

Number of ways to pick 3 red = C1 = 4C3 = 4 ways

Number of ways to pick 3 green = C2 = 5C3 = 10 ways

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Number of ways to pick 3 yellow = C3 = 6C3 = 20 ways
So,
Possible number of selections = C1 × C2 × C3 = 4 × 10 × 20 = 800 ways

Question 5:
The total number of hours, measured in units of 100 hours, that a family runs an
electric oven over a period of one year is a continuous random variable X that has the
density function
�, 0 < � < 1,
� � = 2 − �, 1 ≤ � < 2,
0, �����ℎ���.
Find the probability that over a period of one year, a family runs the oven
a) less than 120 hours
b) between 50 and 100 hours
Solution:
Part a
The total number of hours, measured in units of 100 hours less than 120 hours.
x = 120/100 = 1.2
1 1 .2
P ( X  1.2)   xdx   (2  x)dx
0 1

1 1 .2
  xdx   (2  x)dx
0 1

x 1  x2 
 |0  2 x |11.2  |11.2 
2  2 

1 2 1  1 
  x |0  2  x |11.2   x 2 |11.2 
2  2 


1 2
2
 
 1
2

(1)  (0) 2  2(1.2)  (1)  (1.2) 2  (1) 2  
 
1
 1  0  20.2  1 1.44  1
2  2 
1
 1  0.4  1 0.44
2 2
 0.5  0.4  0.22  0.68

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So,
P(X< 1.2) = 0.68

Part b
The total number of hours, measured in units of 100 hours between 50 and 100 hours.
x =50/100 = 0.5 & x = 100/100 = 1
1
P (0.5  X  1)   xdx
0.

x2 1
 | 0 .5
2
 0.375
So,
P(0.5 < X < 1) = 0.375

Question 6:
A continuous random variable X that can assume values between x = 1 and x = 3 has
a density function given by �(�) = 1/2.
(a) Show that the area under the curve is equal to 1.
(b) Find �(2 < � < 2.5).
(c) Find �(� ≤ 1.6)

Solution:
a) The curve is horizontal line y = f(x) = 1/ 2 . So, the area is between 1 and 3
3
1
Area    dx
2
1 

x2 3
 |1
2
1

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b)
2 .5
1
P (2  X  2.5)    dx
2
2 

x 2.5
 |2
2
1

4

c)
1 .6
1
P ( X  1.6)    dx
2
1 

x 1 .6
 |1
2
 0 .3
So,
a. A = 1
b. P(2<X<2.5) = 1/4
c. P(X ≤ 1.6 ) = 0.3

Question 7:
A coin is biased such that the head is three times as likely to occur as the tail.
Find the expected number of tails when this coin is tossed twice.

Solution:
A coin is tossed twice so the sample space is = { HH, HT, TH, TT}
Probability of appearing head = P(H) = 3/4
Probability of appearing tail = P(T) = 1/4
Let
T = number of tails
t = 0,1,2
If coin is tossed twice and both outcomes are head
f(0) = P(T = 0) = P(HH) = 3/4 × 3/4 = 9/16

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 If coin is tossed twice and first outcome is tail/head and second is head/tail
f(1) = P(T = 1) = P(HT) × P(TH) = 2× 3/4 × 1/4 = 3/8
If coin is tossed twice and both outcomes are tail
f(2) = P(T = 2) = P(TT) = 1/4 × 1/4 = 1/16
So, the probability distribution for T is
T 0 1 2
P(T =t) 9/16 3/8 1/16

Now we find the expected number of tails if the coin is tossed twice by
appling the formula for the expected value of discreat random variable.
  E (T )   t. f (t )
t

2
  t.P (T  t )
t 0

9 3 1
 0.  1.  2.
16 8 16
1

2
So,
E(T) = 1/2

Question 8:
An attendant at a car wash is paid according to the number of cars that pass through.
Suppose the probabilities are 1/12, 1/12, 1/4, 1/4, 1/6, and 1/6, respectively, that the
attendant receives $7, $9, $11, $13, $15, or $17 between 4:00 P.M. and 5:00 P.M. on
any sunny Friday. Find the attendant’s expected earnings for this particular period.
Solution:
X = represents attendant’s earnings between 4:00 P.M and 5:00 P.M.
Probability distribution of the discrete random variable X is
x 7 9 11 13 15 17
f(x) 1/2 1/2 1/4 1/4 1/6 1/6

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 The expected value of discrete random variable X (which represents attendant’s
earnings)
  E ( X )   xf ( x )
x

1 1 1 1 1 1
 7  9   11   13   15   17 
12 12 4 4 6 6
 12.67
So, the attendant’s earnings between 4:00 P.M and 5:00P.M is $12.67.