13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering

Vancouver, B.C., Canada

August 1-6, 2004
Paper No. 1381

VERIFICATION OF RECOVERY PROCESS UNDER THE GREAT

HANSHIN-AWAJI EARTHQUAKE DISASTER BASED ON
THE RECOVERY INDEX (RI)

Yuka KARATANI1, Haruo HAYASHI2

SUMMARY

This paper provides Kobe citizen's life recovery process during the seven years after the Great Hanshin-
Awaji Earthquake Disaster using RI (Recovery Index). In this research, there are two steps to clarify long-
term life recovery process. First, RI database is created based on various kinds of official socioeconomic
statistics of Kobe and Japan. Secondly, time phase during recovery process for seven years is examined
using a cluster analysis based on RI database. Finally, it is clarified that there are three time phases in the
recovery process, Jan.95 - Sep.95, Oct.95 - Sep.98, and Oct.98 - Jan.02, and the life recovery situation in
each time phase is examined. As a result, it is found out that the recovery trend in the latest phase seems to
stabilize.

INTRODUCTION

Remaining tasks in Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster recovery policy

More than eight years have passed since the earthquake occurred. In less than two years until the end of
the fiscal year 2004, that is, the end of Hanshin Awaji Earthquake Recovery Plan Period, we are required
to achieve the remaining tasks, and to carry the mechanism created and extended during the earthquake
recovery process forward to the mature society of the 21st century. In December 2002, the Administration
of Hyogo Prefecture, the area affected by the disaster, formulated "Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Recovery
Plan Final Three-Year Promotion Program" as it faced with the last stage of the target period for the
recovery [1]. This program defines and summarizes the basic concept and tasks for the remaining three
years, the direction of measures for achieving the remaining tasks and the projects to be carried out mainly
by the prefecture in three years. The important task, it points out, is to deliberate on the direction of
measures that should be carried forward from the "recovery plan" to the "general plan". For example, in
the Hyogo Prefecture "Latter Five-Year Promotion Program" [2], projects which had been considered as
recovery measures have been narrowed down to be addressed as general measures (top priority measures:
288 projects, estimated project cost for three years: approx. 730 billion yen). Kobe city, aiming recovery in
10 years after the disaster, will also implement “Recovery Roundup and Verification (tentative title)” from
this fiscal year on. In this program, the main subject, again, is to objectively grasp the recovery status of

1
Research Associate, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Japan
2
Professor, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan
the disaster-stricken area, to define the general idea of recovery measures, to narrow them down and to
carry them on as general measures.

Viewpoints required for grasping the recovery status

To analyze the recovery issues as we have discussed so far, we are required, first of all, to grasp the
recovery status of the disaster-stricken area in multifaceted and objective manner.
In “Kobe City Earthquake Disaster Recovery Roundup and Verification” [3], [4], which was implemented
in 2000, "the Sector of Life Reconstruction", points out the necessity to define the concept of life
reconstruction, and to proceed with verification, it discusses the specific theme: "what is life
reconstruction?" in the first place. It explains the basic structure of life reconstruction during the recovery
process in the following manner: "Life reconstruction" has a complex structure intertwining in with many
other areas taken up in "Kobe City Earthquake Disaster Recovery Roundup and Verification". The basic
structure is shown in Figure 1. The figure shows that the structure has recovery of infrastructure, the very
basic issue in the process of recovery from the disaster, as the bottom layer, then reconstruction of
individual houses and the city, revitalization of economy and measures to support medium and small-sized
enterprises, all of which influence the reconstruction of the victims’ life. In addition, the victims’ life
itself creates a specific problem associated with life reconstruction, which adds further complexity to the
structure of "life reconstruction." The sector points out that, for this reason, it is difficult to define "life
reconstruction" in short, and that it could not be easily grasped so far. It also makes it clear that seven
factors of life reconstruction, i.e., "housing", "social network", "livelihood", "mind and body", "disaster
preparedness", "government response", and "land use management" constitute the items to be verified
regarding this difficult-to-define theme of “life reconstruction.” Accordingly, in grasping the life
reconstruction status, it is considered important that we take a multifaceted approach.

Life rehabilitation of victims

Measures to
Revitalization support medium Reconstruction
and small-sized
City planning
of economy of houses
enterprises

Recovery of infrastructure

[3], [4]
Figure 1 Basic Structure of Life Reconstruction
Source: Kobe City Earthquake Disaster Recovery Roundup and Verification: Sector of Life Reconstruction

Attempt of quantification with indices to indicate the life reconstruction status

Karatani et al. (2000) [5] proposed the Recovery Index (RI) that can take the aspects as mentioned above
into consideration, applying the concept of People's Life Indicators (PLI). And we tried to grasp the
recovery process of Kobe city during the four years after the earthquake, using 120 types of socioeconomic
statistics. As a result, the influence of the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster in Kobe city could be
roughly classified into 6 types of recovery and restoration status according to two factors: the size of drop
immediately after the disaster and the extent of recovery afterwards. We also examined the recovery
process in view of the nineteen items such as construction, transportation and export and import, included
in the six recovery patterns. In examining the recovery status, however, there remain the following two
questions: 1) By using RI, they only classified them into two groups: those that drop immediately after the
earthquake, but return to the level before the earthquake (winner group), and those that did not return to
the level before the earthquake (loser group). But what kind of situation do they regard as “recovery”? 2)
In either group, the indices tend to stabilize with time whether it is a winner group or not (i.e., returning to
the level before the earthquake or not). Is a similar stable trend still observed even when the latest data is
added? Accordingly, in this paper, we used the RI database added with the latest data in the three years
until January 2002 to verify the recovery process in Kobe city during the 7 years after the disaster. By
clarifying the transition of recovery process patterns with time after the earthquake, we examine the
concept of recovery as the tenth year of recovery after the disaster draws near.

OUTLINE OF METHOD TO ESTIMATE RECOVERY INDEX (RI)

Viewpoint for grasping the “life”

Generally, published socioeconomic statistic values differ in unit or range of variation, so the correlation
of indices cannot be compared easily. Accordingly, to standardize various indices, we adopted the
concept of People's Life Indicators (PLI) proposed by the Social Policy Bureau of the Economic Planning
Agency [6]. PLI was developed with a view to grasping the various aspects of people’s life in detail as
well as the actual living conditions and characteristics of the local communities and to contributing to the
improvement of the nation’s quality of life. The indices are used as a reference in discussing the question:
“what is affluence in a real sense?” To be more precise, it classifies various socioeconomic statistics that
show the nation’s living conditions are objectively and systematically into 8 areas of life activities:
"dwelling", "spending", "working", "bringing up (children)", "healing", "playing", "learning", "socializing",
and expresses them quantitatively by standardizing each index. We considered that this concept of PLI is
similar to the seven factors of life reconstruction that were made clear in Kobe city in that they grasp the
living conditions in a multifaceted and quantitative manner. Accordingly, in this paper, we employed the
method proposed by PLI for standardizing respective socioeconomic statistics.

Calculation method of standardized index

The standardized index is the value obtained by standardizing the rate of conversion so that the average of
the absolute value of the rate of conversion in each month during the period of the survey equals 1, and by
processing the rate of conversion of each month cumulatively, assuming the level of the reference month
(here, December 1994) as 100.
The method to standardize each index is as explained below.

a) Calculation of centered rate of conversion Ci(t)

Firstly, classify the method of calculation into two types based on the characteristics of respective indices
Di(t), and calculate the centered rate of conversion Ci(t). The centered rate of conversion stands for the
rate of conversion centered with regard to each index Di(t).

・CASE 1: when the index is an ordinary index or indicates the actual level itself
Di (t ) − Di ( t − 1)
Ci ( t ) = × 100 [1-a]
Di (t ) + Di (t − 1)
2
where Di(t): each index, i: index number, t: time, Ci(t): centered rate of conversion.

・CASE 2: when the index is a ratio or 0 value or negative value

Ci(t) = Di(t)－Di(t－1) [1-b]

b) Calculation of standardization factor (Ai)

 N
∑ Ci ( t )
t =2
Ai = [2]
N −1
where N: Number of time points during the standardization period. In this paper, the period of
standardization is the period of 81 months from April 1992 to December 1998, hence N=81,
Ai: standardization factor (weighted average of absolute value of rate of conversion).

c) Calculation of standardized average rate of conversion (Bi(t))

Ci (t )
Bi (t ) = [3]
Ai
where Bi(t): standardized average rate of conversion (standardization of rate of conversion).

d) Calculation of standardized index (Si(t))

Assuming Si(t) of the reference time point as 100 (%), calculate Si(t) with the following formula using the
standardized average rate of conversion Bi(t)). In this paper, we set the reference time as December 1994,
the previous month of the occurrence of the Great Hanshin Awaji Earthquake, hence Si (December 94)
=100 (%).

・CASE 1:
200 + Bi (t )
Si ( t ) = Si (t − 1) ⋅ [4-a]
200 − Bi ( t )
・CASE 2:
Si (t ) = Si ( t − 1) + Bi ( t ) [4-b]
where Si (t): Standardization index
Formula [4-a] can be regarded as a formula that matches the centeredrate of conversion of Si (t) with the
standardized average rate of conversion Bi(t), and it can be rewritten as the following formula.
Si ( t ) − Si (t − 1)
Bi (t ) = × 100 [4-a']
Si (t ) + Si (t − 1)
2

Definition of recovery index (RI)

Figure 2 (a) and (b) show the conceptual model of recovery index (RI) proposed in this paper. Si1,x,t in
Figure 2 (a), shows the actual variation of value of a certain socioeconomic index after the earthquake
disaster in the area x. However, not all the change of actual values Si1,x,t after the earthquake may be
attributed to the influence of the earthquake. For example, when the disaster hit the area x, suppose that
the economy of the whole nation including the disaster-stricken area x suffered serious downturn due to
other causes than the disaster. In such case, the actual value of a certain socioeconomic statistic of the
area x may decrease due to two factors: the disaster and the stagnated economy. Therefore, in order to
grasp the direct influence of the earthquake, it is necessary to assume the change that the indices would
have shown when there was no disaster, and to eliminate the influence of social conditions caused by the
factors other than the natural disaster that changed in the whole area including the area x. We assumed
that the values certain socioeconomic indices of the area x might have shown if there was no earthquake
would vary in the same manner as Si0,x,t, the values of socioeconomic indices of the same item in the area
x0. That is to say, we assumed that the standardized index Si0,x,t of certain socioeconomic statistic in the
area x0 would not be influenced by the disaster even in case it should occur, and would vary in the same
manner as in the case of no disaster. And we assumed that socioeconomic statistic standardized index
Si0,x,t, in the area x would vary in the same manner as that of area x0, the reference point. Therefore, the
recovery index RI of the area x can be defined as the formula [5].
RIx ,t =Si 1,x ,t −Si 0 ,x ,t [5]

In this paper, we assume Si0,x,t as the value of the outside of the disaster-stricken area, that is, the value of
the whole nation excluding the disaster-stricken area.
As shown in Figure 2 (b) that shows the variation of recovery index RI, when the level of certain social
indices in the area x is equal to that in the reference area x0, the recovery index RI becomes 0 and shows
that the recovery in the area x has reached the level of the area x0. When the value is lower than the level
of the reference area x0, then the influence of the disaster is shown in negative value, and when the value
is higher than that level, the influence is shown in positive value. Based on such hypothesis, we clearly
indicated the recovery and restoration status in view of the influence of the earthquake by continuously
showing the difference between the level of each socioeconomic index of a certain area x and that of the
reference area x0. Index (%)
Standardized

(a)

Si 0,x,t

100

Si 1,x,t
Suffer
t0 t
Rehabilitation

＋
Index

(b)

t0 t
0

RI x,t
Standard
－ Month t 0

Figure 2 Conceptual model of RI

QUANTIFICATION OF RECOVERY PROCESS IN KOBE CITY

AFTER HANSHIN AWAJI EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

Building a recovery index (RI) database

Based on the method explained in the previous chapter, we estimated the variation of recovery process in
Kobe city after the Hanshin Awaji Earthquake Disaster. The data used for individual index Di(t) are the
socioeconomic statistics that have long been collected by Kobe City as part of its ordinary duties and were
published in "Statistics Kobe" (April 1992 to April 1994) [7] and "Data Kobe" (October 1995 to January
2002) [8], [9]. This set of monthly data during the 118 months from April 1992 to January 2002 was
provided to us by the courtesy of Kobe city. We obtained the national socioeconomic indices Si0,x,t, used
for RI calculation from the Japanese Statistics monthly Report (Statistics Bureau, Management and
Coordination Agency)" (April 1992 to July 2002) [10]. Out of all the data in these statistical reports, we
used 120 items that allowed comparison between Kobe city and the whole nation during the target period.
Please refer to Table 2 for details of these items. This database includes the financial indices of 10 cities
and 10 towns in Hyogo Prefecture which are not the subject of this analysis. We built the database to
grasp the recovery status in the disaster-stricken area, and we refer to it as "recovery index database".

Recovery patterns in view of RI

We carry out a cluster analysis on 120 items of socioeconomic statistics during the period of 118 months
from April 1992 to January 2002 in Kobe city, to classify and extract the recovery patterns that exist
behind these data objectively and quantitatively. As to the cluster analysis method, we employed Ward
method, one of the combination methods, for classification standard, and square Euclidean distance for
measurement of distance of classification. In this paper, we used the above-mentioned methods for all the
cluster analyses.

② 生活再建パターンの抽出
Recovery pattern
（ items)
extraction (120 項目） 120
②生活再建パターンの抽出
Recovery pattern
extraction （120items)
(120 項目）
公e 新 月 有e 百 貿.d 通 企
新.y 日雇就y 公e 新 月 有e 百 貿 .d 通関t 企業 t 就職 y 新規 .y 日雇
易ne 関 業rt
規ol 就 共nc 設 s 間 効m貨
t.

共cn 設s 間 効m 貨 職a 易 ne 輸ro 倒 ro 率 aw 求 lo 就
.t

rt
額p 輸 倒op
c

求p 労s 工an 住 le 有 求oc 店 d 額 p 出p 産 p ila 職 p 労 s

c

工an 住le 有 求o 店 率lwi

u

出op
u r

産x
r

事iF 宅 aS 効 人In 売 iA
t

事iF 宅aS 効 人cnI 売diA 職 u

t

xE Im xE R m
E uB
s

a
I E R m
s

xE m
n n

E B
o o
C C

1994-09 1994-09
Phase I
①時
1994-10 1994-10
1994-11 1994-11

間 1995-01 1994-12 1994-12

Time phase extraction

的 1995-02 公e 新 月 有 百 貿.d 通関 企 就 新. 日
フェ Phase II 共nc 設s 間
工a 住le 有
t.
c
u 効em貨
求o 店 易ne 輸rt
額p 出op
業tr 職ya 規ylo 雇
倒o 率ilw 求p 就s
xE Im 産pxE aR 職m 労
r

ー 事in 宅aS 効 人cn 売idA

t

E uB
s
n

F I
ズの 2001-09
o
C
118months)

1994-09

抽 ）月2001-10 1994-10

出 が2001-11 Phase III 1994-11

1994-12

（2002-01
(118

2001-12 1995-01
1995-02

2001-09

公e 新 月 有e 百 貿.d 通 企 就y 新.y 日雇
共nc 設s 間
t.

効m貨 易en 関tr 業tr 職aw規lo 就

輸o 倒o
c

工an 住le 有 求o 店d 額p 求p 労s
率ila
u
r

xE 出pIm 産pxE
t

事iF 宅aS 効
s
n
o
C
人cIn 売iA 職E uB
R m
1994-09
1994-10
1994-11
1994-12
1995-01
1995-02
118 months)

2001-09
）2001-10
月2001-11
か2001-12
(118

（2002-01
(a) Cluster Analysis in terms of Time (b) Cluster Analysis in terms of Items
Figure 3 Recovery Pattern Extraction Procedure
To grasp the change of recovery pattern with time and
the corresponding change of each item, we analyzed Table 1 Time Phases of Recovery
them in the following two stages. Fig. 3 (a) and (b) 0 1992-04～1994-12
Ⅰ 1995-01～1995-09
show a mimetic diagram of the data set used for the Ⅱ 1995-10～1998-09
recovery process analysis; the horizontal axis of the Ⅲ 1998-10～2002-01
represents 120 items, and the vertical axis represents
0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 2
the target period (118 months). The procedure of
analysis is as follows. We first carry out a cluster 93.10 95.10
93.11 95.11
analysis in terms of time as shown in Fig. 3 (a), to 93.12 95.12
grasp how the recovery process evolved 93.08 96.10
93.09 96.11
with relevant time phases within the period of 118 93.06 P 96.04
months that covered before and after the earthquake, 93.07 h 96.05
93.05 a 96.06
and extract such time phases. Then, as shown in Fig. 93.04
s 96.07
3 (b), we extract the recovery pattern plotted in each 94.01 96.08
94.02 e 96.09
time phase extracted in Fig. 3 (a), and examine which 94.03 96.01
94.08 Ⅱ 96.02
of the 120 items are included in each pattern. Finally, 94.09 96.03
P
we review the recovery status since the earthquake h
94.12 97.01
94.10 97.02
disaster based on these results. a 94.11 96.12
s 94.06 97.12
e 94.07 99.04
a) Change of recovery process with time (extraction 94.05 99.06
of time phases) 94.04 99.05
0 92.04 99.03
Firstly, in order to extract the time phases that the 92.05 98.10
recovery process patterns with 120 items went 92.06 98.11
92.12 99.01
through during the period from April 1992 to January 93.02 99.02
93.03 98.12
2002, we carried out a cluster analysis in terms of 93.01 00.08
time (refer to Fig. 3 (a).) The values on the horizontal 92.08 00.09
92.09 00.10
axis in the figure represent similarity among the 92.10 00.12
samples. The smaller the value is, the greater the 92.11 00.04
92.07 P 00.05
similarity, and the larger the value, the less the 95.04 h 00.06
similarity. 95.05 a 00.07
95.03 00.01
Fig. 4 and Table 1 are the dendrogram and table P s
95.08 00.02
I 95.09
e 99.12
which show the result of grouping the socioeconomic 95.07 Ⅲ 00.03
statistical data on 120 items in Kobe city by similarity 95.01 99.10
95.02 99.11
(distance). They suggest that the recovery process, 98.05 99.09
which includes 120 items, went through changes in 98.06 99.07
98.04 99.08
four phases. Phase 0 represents the period from April 97.04 01.12
1992 to December 1994, that is, from the beginning 97.05 02.01
P 97.03 01.10
of the statistical data until just before the occurrence h 97.07 01.11
of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster. As a 97.08 01.08
s 97.09 01.09
far as the indices of 120 items, i.e., the subject of this 97.10 01.07
e 97.11 00.11
analysis, are concerned, the data shows that the 97.06 01.05
earthquake brought about a significant change that is Ⅱ 98.08 01.06
98.09 01.04
distinct from the previous pattern of change with 98.07 01.01
time. Phase I represents the period from January 1995 98.01 01.02
98.02 01.03
to September 1995, which corresponds to the period 98.03
of confusion immediately after the earthquake. In
other words, the data shows that the period of direct Figure 4 Result of Cluster Analysis in
confusion caused by the earthquake subsided in nine terms of Time
months after the earthquake. Phase II represents the *94.12 indicates December, 1994
period from October 1995 to September 1998, which
corresponds to the period of emergency three-year plan which aimed for the recovery of the city, life and
the economy in the disaster-stricken area. In a sense, we can see that it suggests the completion of the first
part of the recovery period. Phase III represents the period from October 1998 till the end of the analysis
period. In a sense, it is considered as the latter part of the recovery period. In a way, we can say that we
are still in this phase now.
These are the distinctive features of the respective phases. We will now follow the recovery process of
each phase and analyze the items included in these patterns.

b) Changes in recovery pattern with time

The time phases extracted in the previous section suggest that there are some changes in recovery pattern
in each of phases. To clarify the changes in recovery pattern in each phase, we carried out a cluster
analysis in terms of items. (Refer to Fig. 3 (b).).
The result shows that there are respectively two types (period 0 to I), three types (period 0 to II), and six
types (period 0 to III and 0 to December 98) of patterns in the recovery process in each time phase. To
extract the potential trend in each pattern, we obtained the average variation of the socioeconomic indices
which belong to the same group for each period. To be more precise, by averaging monthly data of all
indices belonging to the same group, we tried to eliminate the influence of errors of the individual indices
and find the real features of each group.
Fig. 5 (a) to (c) show the two types, three types and six types of recovery patterns extracted from the 120
items of socioeconomic indices in the respective periods as mentioned above.
When we examine the period of 0 to I shown in Fig. 5 (a), the 9-month period after the earthquake is
classified into two groups depending on the size of drop in variables groups immediately after the
earthquake.
The period of 0 to II shown in Fig. 5 (b) could be classified into two groups: those in which the influence
of the earthquake is recognized clearly (II-1, II-2) and those in which the influence is not recognized
clearly (on the decrease) (II-3). The former can be further classified into two subgroups: those that
showed a temporary drop due to the earthquake, but were returning to the level before the earthquake (II-
1), and those that failed to return to the level before the earthquake (II-2). The latter, on the other hand,
already showed a slight decrease before the earthquake, sharply decreased for approx. three years after the
earthquake, temporarily showed a sharp increase in May 1998, but again shows a declining trend as
before.
In the same manner as above, the period of 0 to III shown in Fig. 5 (c) can be roughly classified into two
groups: those that clearly show the influence of the earthquake (III-1 to III-4) and those that do not show
the influence clearly (III-5, III-6). III-5 of the latter group shows that the living standard in Kobe city was
always above the national average both before and after the earthquake. III-6 shows a gradual decrease
before the earthquake, decreased sharply for approx. three years after the earthquake, temporarily showed
a sharp increase in May 1998, but again shows a declining trend as before. On the other hand, those items
which clearly showed the influence of the earthquake showed a temporary drop due to the earthquake, but
they are then classified into two types: those that showed temporary drop after the earthquake, but
returned to the level before the earthquake (III-1, III-2) and those that did not return to the level before the
earthquake (III-3, III-4). The latter group showed not only a temporary drop after the earthquake, but also
a trend of gradual decrease which became notable after the earthquake; such trend was not visible before
the earthquake. Accordingly, as the administration takes measures, the transition of socioeconomic indices
included in this group should be continuously monitored even after the earthquake; these are considered
as the items that will require careful attention.
In addition to the classification by recovery status, the data could be classified into two groups, large and
small according to the size of drop of variables that appeared immediately after the earthquake. The result
suggests that III-1 and III-3 underwent smaller drop caused by the disaster when compared with III-2 and
III-4, though they were apparently affected by the earthquake.
 -16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
92-01 92-01

93-01 93-01

0
94-01 94-01

Ⅰ －1

Ⅰ －2
95-01 95-01

Ⅰ
96-01 96-01

97-01 97-01

98-01 98-01
（a）92.04～95.09

99-01 99-01

00-01 00-01

01-01 01-01

(29)
(91)

02-01 02-01

【Impact : large 】
【Impact : small】

Figure 5
-22
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-10
-8
-6
-4
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0
2
4
6
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0
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0
2
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6
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14

92-01 92-01 92-01

93-01 93-01 93-01

0
94-01 94-01 94-01

Ⅱ －2
Ⅱ －1

Ⅱ －3
（

95-01 95-01 95-01

96-01 96-01 96-01

97-01 97-01 97-01

Ⅰ 　 Ⅱ

98-01 98-01 98-01

99-01 99-01 99-01

ｂ）92.04～98.09

00-01 00-01 00-01

(5)
01-01 01-01 01-01

(27)
(88)

【stable】
【stable】

【decrease gradually】
02-01 02-01 02-01

-50
-45
-40
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-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
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0
5
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0
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92-01 92-01 92-01 92-01

9 92-01 92-01
93-01 93-01 93-01 93-01
9 93-01 93-01
0

Ⅲ －6
Ⅲ －5

94-01
Ⅲ －2
Ⅲ －1

94-01 94-01 94-01

9 94-01 94-01

Ⅲ －4
Ⅱ －3
Ⅲ －3

Recovery Process of Each Time Phase

95-01 95-01 95-01 95-01
9 95-01 95-01
（ｃ）

96-01 96-01 96-01 96-01

9 96-01 96-01

97-01 97-01 97-01 97-01

9 97-01 97-01
Ⅱ

98-01 98-01 98-01 98-01

9 98-01 98-01
92.04～02.01

99-01 99-01 99-01 99-01

9 99-01 99-01
00-01 00-01 00-01 00-01
0 00-01 00-01
Ⅲ

(2)
01-01
(3)

01-01 01-01 01-01

0 01-01 01-01
(13)
(16)
(22)
(64)

02-01 02-01 02-01 02-01

0 02-01 02-01
Recovery status by area viewed from the recovery pattern
We examined here which indices constitute the recovery pattern in each time phase, or in other words,
what sort of recovery and restoration process the various social activities in Kobe city went through.
Table 2 (a) to (c) show the group of items that constitute the recovery patterns of each time phase shown
in Fig. 5 (a) to (c). The vertical columns show the socioeconomic statistical item ID’s and their description
used in this paper. The horizontal row show the extracted recovery pattern in each period, and it is
marked gray where applicable. In Fig. 5, the number in the parentheses in the upper center right shows
the number of index items included in each pattern.
Let us examine the number of items that constitute the recovery pattern and the changes in content of each
time phase.

a) April 92 – September 95 (Phase 0 - I)

Table 2 (a) shows that 91 items (76%), i.e., the majority of items, showed a relatively slight drop, while
remaining 29 items (24%) showed a significant drop, during the period after the earthquake up to Phase I.
Those items that showed the latter pattern are total population, population net increase, net migration,
imports, and private railway companies (Hankyu, Hanshin, Sanyo, Kobe Express and Kobe New Transit).
As to the port and railways, the earthquake caused serious damage to the infrastructure itself such as
berths, station houses and rails. They were, therefore, obliged to suspend their services immediately after
the earthquake, which caused a significant drop in the number of passengers. As to the items related to
population, as many as 4,569 people died, and there were 236,899 refugees at peak time. Therefore, more
people moved out to less damaged areas and less people moved in from outside of the city. [11].

b) April 92 – September 95 (Phase 0-II)

Table 2 (b) shows that 88 items (73%), which underwent a slight drop immediately after the earthquake,
soon returned to the level before the earthquake by Phase II, while remaining 27 items (23%) dropped
significantly immediately after the earthquake, and still cannot return to the level before the earthquake
afterwards. We also extracted a new pattern, which showed a slight decrease before the earthquake,
decreased sharply for three years after the earthquake, and then temporarily showed a sharp increase in
May 1998, but then turned to a declining trend as before.
Those items which showed a small drop immediately after the earthquake in Phase I correspond to the
indices groups that returned to the level before the earthquake in Phase II. And the items that showed a
sharp drop immediately after the earthquake correspond to the indices groups that could not return to the
level before the earthquake in Phase II. That is to say, the recovery status in Phase II is dependent on the
size of drop immediately after the earthquake in Phase I.
Items that showed the new pattern II-3 were: total population, population net increase, net migration, and
number of people on public livelihood aid, and housing aid. Among these items, items related to
population are considered to have been influenced by such factors as deaths, refugees, increase of people
who moved out of the city, and decrease of people who moved into the city as explained previously. As to
number of people on public livelihood aid and housing aid, the people who were already on public aid
before the earthquake partly overlap the victims of the disaster. Therefore, the special measures
implemented for the victims after the earthquake decreased the needs for public support those people on
public aid used to have. This trend is outstanding in housing aid, as the administration implemented
special measures for over 110,000 damaged housings in Kobe city.

c) April 92 – January 02 (Phase 0-III)

Table 2 (c) shows that 80 (67%) items returned to the level before the earthquake by phase III, regardless
of the size of drop immediately after the earthquake, while 35 items (29%) did not. There are also two
new patterns that do not clearly show the influence of the earthquake: the process III-5 indicating that the
 Table 2 Index System based on Recovery Process of Each Time
Phase (a) 92.04-95.09 (b) 92.04-98.09 (c) 92.04-02.01
ID 指　標　項　目 Ⅰ-1 Ⅰ-2 Ⅱ-1 Ⅱ-2 Ⅱ-3 Ⅲ-1 Ⅲ-2 Ⅲ-3 Ⅲ-4 Ⅲ-5 Ⅲ-6
F1 Population(1000) Total
F2 Net Increase Natural increase
F3 Net migration
F4 Vital Statistics Live birth
F5 Deaths
F6 Marriages
F7 Divorces
F8 Department Sales Total(100mill.yen)
F9 Finance Balance of deposits
F10 (10mil. yen) Loans & discounts
F11 Enterprice Cases
F12 Bankruptcies Amount of liabilities
F13 Foreign Trade Exports
F14 (100mill. yen) Inports
F15 Building Construction Floor area
2
F16 Started （ 1000m ） Net housing units
F17 Consumer Price Total
F18 Indices Food
F19 (100mill. yen) Living expenditure
F20 New job applicants ratio
F21 Sales of Large- Total
F22 scale Retail Stores Clothing
F23 Department stores Food & bevarages
F24 (mill. yen) Furniture
F25 Household electric appliances
F26 Household equipment
F27 Sales of Large- Total
F28 scale Retail Stores Clothing
F29 (Supermarkets) Food & bevarages
F30 (mill. yen) Furniture
F31 Household electric appliances
F32 Household equipment
F33 West JR Total(1000)
F34 PrivateRailways Total(1000)
F35 Hankyu Railway Total
F36 (1000) Sannomiya
F37 Rokko
F38 Okamoto
F39 Hanshin Railway Total
F40 (1000) Motomachi
F41 Sannomiya
F42 Mikage
F43 Sanyo Railway Total
F44 (1000) Itayado
F45 Tsukimiyama
F46 Tarumi
F47 Kobe Railway Total
F48 (1000) Minatogawa
F49 Suzurandai
F50 Kita-suzurandai
F51 Nishi-suzurandai
F52 Kobe Rapid Railway Total
F53 (1000) Sannomiya
F54 Motomachi
F55 Kosoku-Kobe
F56 Shinkaichi
F57 Kosoku-Nagata
F58 Hokushin Railway Tanigami(1000)
F59 Kobe Municipal Total
F60 Subway Sannomiya
F61 (1000) Minatogawa Park
F62 Shinnagata
F63 Myodani
F64 Gakuentoshi
F65 Seishin-chuo
F66 Portliner Total
F67 (1000) Sannomiya
F68 Shiminbyoin
F69 Shiminhiroba
F70 Rokkoliner Total
F71 (1000) Sumiyoshi
F72 Uozaki
F73 Islandcenter
F74 Municipal Bus Total
F75 Average of Total
F76 Monthly Living Foods
F77 Expenditure Housing
F78 (All Housholds) House & land rent
F79 (100mill.yen) Fuel,light&water charges
F80 Furniture & household
F81 Clothes & footwear
F82 Medical care
F83 Transportaion & Commun.
F84 Education
F85 Reading & recreation
F86 Others
F87 Average of Mouthly Income
F88 Receipts & Expenditure
F89 Disbursements Surplus
F90 Building Construction Total
F91 Started Wooden
F92 Floor Area by Use Steel&reinforced concrete
2
F93 (1000m ) Reinforced concrete
F94 Steel frame
F95 Employment New application
F96 Referrals Monthly active applications
F97 (General&part-time New job openings
F98 workers) Monthly active job opening
F99 Employment Placements
F100 Referrals Active applications
F101 (Day labourers) New applications
F102 Total day labourers
F103 Employment Claimants who got paid
F104 insurance Recipients basic allowance
F105 (General employees) Amount of benefits
F106 Employment Insurance Recipients basic allowance
F107 (Day labourers) Amount of benefits
F108 Public Livelihood Persons
F109 Aid Total of expenditure on aid
F110 (mill. yen) Livelifood
F111 Housing
F112 Educational
F113 Medical care
F114 Crime Penalcoad crime cases
F115 Known to the police
F116 Felonious offences
F117 Larceny offences
F118 Traffic Accidents Cases
F119 Persons killed
F120 Persons injured
living standard in Kobe city was always above the national level before and after the earthquake and the
process III-6 showing similar trend to that of II-3 described above.
Here, we will focus on two types in the transition from Phase II: ① those which show a recovery trend in
Phase II, but does not seem to recover in Phase III (II-1→III-3·III-4), and ② those which shifted to the
new pattern III-5.
Items that show the trend ① are: divorces, bankrupt companies, exports, consumer price index (food),
Kobe Electric Railway Co., Ltd., Municipal Subway, Municipal Bus, average expenditure (education),
unemployment insurance (claimants accepted as eligible, actual number of recipients) and traffic
accidents (number of accidents, number of persons injured). When we focus on an outstanding item, the
number of bankrupt companies did not immediately increase thanks to the emergency financing measures
taken immediately after the earthquake, but large scale bankruptcies of financial institutions due to the
earthquake occurred in the summer of 1996, one and half years after the earthquake, which greatly
affected the whole number of bankruptcies. In Phase III, even though the recession became serious, it was
a general trend in Japan, and when we see Kobe city only, the situation of bankrupt companies shows a
recovery trend.
Items related to exports and railways are under similar conditions in that the infrastructure itself suffered
serious damage and that they have competitors. While the functions of the Port of Kobe were suspended,
other ports such as the Port of Yokohama and the Port of Tokyo substituted its export and import
functions, and these substitution measures seem to be continuously taken even after its functions
recovered.
Railway companies are competing in the same area, so the lines which suspended their service for longer
period seem to have difficulty in recovering afterwards. For example, West Japan Railway Company and
Hankyu Railway restored earlier than other companies and resumed their service. It suggests that, in case
of businesses with competitors, suspension of service leads to a decrease of their share.
Items that show the trend of ② are: balance of deposits, loans and discounts, and active job applications.
Firstly, both balance of deposits and loans & discounts in Kobe city maintain a high level compared with
the national average. It is characteristic that this trend did not change substantially before and after the
earthquake. The number of active job applications remains at a high level compared with the national
average, reflecting the effectiveness of the positive measures taken for employment. As to the new job
offers to new applicants ratio (F20), however, we have to note that an increase in active job offers may not
necessarily mean that the types of job desired by applicants are offered, as we consider the fact that F20 is
not much affected by the earthquake [12].

Recovery status in view of recovery index (RI)

As we have discussed in Chapter 3, Section 2, in Phase III, three and half years after the earthquake
disaster, the recovery patterns III-1 to III-4, which include 115 items (96%) among 120 items, show that
the recovery status does not change much and is stable. When we compare (c) and (d) in Table 2, we can
see the items that constitute each recovery pattern are almost identical. The term "stable" here means a
situation which "shows a fixed trend and no change from a certain point". From such viewpoint, III-1 and
III-2 have recovered to the level before the earthquake, and show a fixed trend, always staying close to
zero (national average) since Phase III. III-3 and III-4 once recovered to the level before the earthquake,
but then show a fixed trend of gradual decrease since Phase III. Both cases are considered to be in a
"stable" status.
Such situation in Kobe city may be likened to a "symptom fixation" stage. Western medicine has the
concepts of "cure" and "symptom fixation". "Cure" literally means that the disease is completely healed,
while "symptom fixation" refers to a situation where no significant short-term improvement can be
expected if the current treatment is continued, but no significant aggravation is expected either if the
treatment is interrupted [13].
When we review the recovery process in view of RI based on these concepts, Phase I is a period of critical
condition where all the areas are severely affected by the earthquake. An intensive care (for example,
Hyogo Prefecture Emergency Three-Year Plan) at this stage may spell the difference between life and
death. Phase II is likened to a situation where the patient’s life was saved by the first aid, but the patient
successively undergo various treatments for rehabilitation (recovery measures) to avoid after-effects in
future. Phase III is the period of symptom fixation, in which symptoms have become stable, but long-term
treatment is given with emphasis on specific points in order to alleviate the aftereffects that still remain
here and there.
According to this analogy, we should not regard the stability of RI values as an indication of stagnancy of
the recovery process, but we should rather think that the recovery process is in progress, and that a long-
term specific measures for the remaining specific issues are now required.

CONCLUSION AND OUR CHALLENGE IN FUTURE

In this paper, we verified the recovery process of Kobe city during the 7 years from the occurrence of the
Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster until January 2002 using recovery indices (RI). The outcome of this
study is summarized as follows.
1) To grasp the long-term recovery process since immediately after the earthquake using recovery indices
(RI), we developed a recovery index (RI) database that contains 120 socioeconomic and financial indices
of Kobe city and Japan.
2) To grasp transition of the recovery process during the 7 years from the earthquake, we carried out a
cluster analysis in terms of time. As a result, we found that the recovery status went through 4 time phases
as listed below.
0: April 1992 to December 1994
I: January 1995 to September 1995
II: October 1995 to September 1998
III: October 1998 to January 2002
3) To grasp what types of recovery patterns existed in each time phase obtained in 2), we carried out a
cluster analysis in terms of items for each phase. As a result, we found that there are 2 types, 3 types and
6 types of recovery patterns in the periods 0 to I, the 0 to II, and 0 to III respectively. After sorting out the
items that constitute each pattern, we examined the features of recovery pattern in each period.
4) We suggested the way to interpret the fluctuation of indices when we examine the recovery status using
RI. We emphasized that the stability of RI values in Phase III should not be regarded as an indication of
stagnancy of the recovery process but that we should rather think that the recovery process is in progress,
and that a long-term specific measures for the remaining specific issues are now required.

However, the data used for the analysis of current recovery process represents the living conditions of
Kobe citizens as a whole, and not of the victims alone. In this paper, we carried out an analysis on as
many as 120 indices to examine various lives from many aspects. It is also necessary to use a small
number of typical indices for the evaluation of the recovery measure programs. Accordingly, our
challenge in future is to carefully examine the data to be used for an analysis, and to review what kind of
data will enable us to grasp the "recovery of victims" more accurately.

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