Cost Theory and estimation

I. Nature of Cost
Explicit costs refers to the actual expenditures of the firm to hire, rent, or purchase the inputs it
requires in production.
Implicit costs refers to the value of the inputs owned and used by the firm in its own
production activity.
In economics, both explicit and implicit costs must be considered. That is, in measuring
production costs, the firm must include the alternative or opportunity costs of all inputs,
whether purchased or owned by the firm. The reason is that the firm could not retain a hired
input if it paid lower price for the input than another firm. Similarly, it would not pay for a firm
to use an owned input if the value (productivity) of the input is greater to another firm. These
economic costs must be distinguished from accounting cost, which refer only to the firm’s
actual expenditures or explicit costs incurred for purchased or rented inputs. Accounting or
historical costs are important for financial reporting by the firm and for tax purposes. For
managerial decision-making purposes, economic or opportunity costs are the relevant concept
that must be used.
Marginal Cost refers to the change in total cost for a 1-unit change in output.
Incremental Cost refers to the change in total costs from implementing a particular
management decision, such as the introduction of new product line, the undertaking of a new
advertising campaign, or the production of a previously purchased component.
Sunk Costs are the costs that are irrelevant and are not affected by the decision.

II. Short- Run Cost Function

Short-Run Total and cost unit function

Short Run – refers to the time period during which some of the firm’s inputs are fixed.

Total Fixed Cost (TFC) – are the total obligations of the firm per time period for all fixed inputs.

Total Variable Cost (TVC) – are the total obligation of the firm per time period for all the variable inputs
that the firm uses.

Total Cost (TC) equals total fixed cost (TFC) plus total variable cost (TVC). That is,

TC = TFC + TVC
Cost Function show the minimum costs of producing various levels of output on the assumption
that the firm uses the optimal or least-cost input combinations to produce each level of output.
Thus, the total cost of producing a particular level of output is obtained by multiplying the
optimal quantity of each input used times the input price and then adding all these costs.
 TFC
AFC = Q
TVC
AVC = Q

TC
ATC = Q = AFC + AVC

ΔTC ΔTVC
MC = ΔQ = ΔQ

Short- Run Total and Per- Unit Cost Curves

The top panel shows that TVC is zero and rises as the output is zero and rises. At the point G” the law of
diminishing begins to operate. The TC curve has the same shape as the TVC and is above it by $60 (the
TFC). The bottom panel shows U-shaped AVC< ATC and MC curve. AFC = ATC- AVC and declines
continuously as output rises. The MC curve reaches a minimum before the AVC and ATC curves and
intercepts them from below at their lowest points.
 III. LONG-RUN COST CURVES

Long-Run Total Cost Curves

Long Run – refers to the time period during which all inputs are variable. In the long run, firms
are able to adjust all costs, whereas, in the short run, firms are only able to influence prices
through adjustments made to production levels.
Long- run total cost (LTC) curve is derived from the firm’s expansion path and shows the
minimum long-run total costs of producing various levels of output. The firm’s long-run
average and marginal cost curves are then derived from the long-run total cost curve.

Derivation of the Long-Run Total, Average, and Marginal Cost Curves

From point A on the expansion path in the panel, and w= $10 and r= $10, we get the point A’ on
the long run cost (LTC) curve in the middle panel. Other points on the LTC curve are similarly
obtained. The long-run average cost (LAC) curve in the bottom panel is given by the slope of a
ray from the origin to the LTC curve. The LAC curve falls up to point G” (4Q) because of
increasing returns to scale and rises thereafter because of decreasing returns to scale. The long-
run marginal cost (LMC) curve is given by the slope of the LTC curve and intersects the LAC
curve from below at the lowest point on the LAC curve.

Long-Run Average and Marginal Cost Curves

The long-run average cost (LAC) curve shows the lowest average cost of
producing each level of output when the firm can build the most appropriate
plant to produce each level of output.

Relationship Between the Long-Run and the Short-Run Average Cost Curves

In the top panel, the Lac curve is given by A”B*C”E*G”J*R” on the assumption that the firm can
build only four scales of plant (SAC 1, SAC2, SAC3, and SAC4). In the bottom panel, the Lac curve is
the smooth curve A”B”C”D”E”F”G”H”J”N”K” on the assumption that the firm can build a very
large or infinite number of plants in the long run.

IV. Plant Size and Economies of Scale

Economies of Scale refers to the situation in which output grows proportionately faster than
inputs. For example, output more than doubles with the doubling of inputs. With input prices
remaining constant, this leads to lower costs per unit. Thus. Increasing returns of scale are
reflected in a declining LAC curve. On the other hand, decreasing returns to scale refers to the
situation where output grows at a proportionately slower rate than the use of inputs. With
input prices constant, this leads to higher costs per unit. Thus, decreasing returns to scale are
reflected in an LAC curve that is rising. The lowest point on the LAC curve occurs at the output
level at which the forces for decreasing returns to scale. Increasing returns to scale or
decreasing costs arise because of technological and financial reasons. The technological forces
for economies of scale are referred to “plant economies” because they operate at the plant
level while financial reasons for economies of scale are often referred to as “firm economies”
because they arise at the firm level.

Possible Shapes of the LAC curve

The left panel shows a U- shaped Lac curve, which indicates first increasing and then decreasing
returns to scale. The middle panel shows a nearly L- shaped Lac curve, which shows that
economies of scale quickly give way to constant returns to scale or gently rising LAC. The right
panel shows an LAC curve that declines continuously, as in the case of natural monopolies.
Economies of scope refers to the lowering costs that a firm often experiences when it produces
two or more products together rather than each alone.

V. LEARNING CURVES
-shows the decline in the average input cost of production with rising cumulative total outputs over
time.

Learning curve can be expressed algebraically:

C=aQb
 where, C is the average input cost of the Qth unit of input.

a is the average cost of the first unit of input

b will be the negative because the average input cost declines with increases in
cumulative total output

log C= log a + b log Q

where, b is the slope of the learning curve

VI. MINIMIZING COSTS INTERNATIONALLY- THE NEW

ECONOMIES OF SCALE
International Trade in Inputs
Today, more and more products manufactured by international corporations have parts and
components made in many countries. The reason is to minimize production costs.

Foreign sourcing of inputs is often not a matter of choice to earn higher profits, but simply a
requirement to remain competitive. Firms that do not look abroad for cheaper inputs face loss of
competitiveness in world markets and even in the domestic market. Not only are more and more inputs
imported, but also more and more firms are opening production facilities in more and more nations.

The New International Economies of Scale -can be achieved in five basic areas:

•product development

•purchasing

•production

•demand management

•order fulfillment

Immigration of Skilled Labor

A survey of almost 300 employers by the National Science Foundation (NSF) in 1985 found that
28 percent of them had personnel shortages in science and engineering. In a world of global
competition, the manager must forecast the firm's need for skilled labor and hire it from abroad when
not available domestically.

VII. The architecture of the ideal firm

Firm Architecture
- refers to the way the firm is organized, operates, and responds to changes in markets.
- a learning organization that rapidly innovates and create new competencies around its core
ones
- it has a flat organizational structure and short lines of command to facilitate communication
and interaction
- it operates factories that are highly specialized and capable of rapidly shifting to produce
new products
- is agile to quickly respond to changing market conditions
An Ideal Firm concentrates on:
- Designing the product or service
- Advertising its brand
- Taking orders from customers

VIII. COST-VOLUME-PROFIT ANALYSIS (BREAKEVEN

ANALYSIS) and operating leverage

Cost- Volume Profit Analysis

-examines the relationship among the total revenue, total costs, and total profits of the firm
at various levels of outputs. Cost-volume-profit or breakeven analysis is often used by
business executives to determine the sales volume required for the firm to break even and
the total profits and losses at other sales levels.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Du07z79T-Js

Operating Leverage

-refers to the ratio of the firm’s total fixed costs to total variable costs. The higher is this
ratio, the more leveraged the firm is said to be. As the firm becomes more automated or
more leveraged (i.e., substitutes fixed for variable costs), its total fixed costs rise but its
average variable costs fall. Because of higher overhead costs, the breakeven output of the
firm increases.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bZpB-o3cwp8

IX. EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION OF COST FUNCTION

 Knowledge of short-run cost functions is necessary for the firm in determining the optimal level
of output and the price to charge.
 Knowledge of long-run cost functions is essential in planning for the optimal scale of plant for
the firm to build in the long-run.

Data and Measurement Problem in Estimating Short-Run Cost

The most common method of estimation the firm’s short-run cost functions is regression analysis,
whereby total variable costs are regressed against output and a few other variables, such as input prices
and operating conditions, during the time period when the size of the plant is fixed. The total variable
cost rather than total cost function is estimated because of the difficulty of allocating fixed cost to the
various products produced by the firms. The firm’s total cost function can then be obtained by simply
adding the best estimate possible of the fixed costs to the total variable costs. The firm’s average
variable and marginal cost functions can be easily obtained from total variable cost function.

EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION DATA COLLECTION ISSUES

 Opportunity Costs Must Be Extracted from Accounting Cost Data 

 Costs Must Be Divided Among Products 
 Costs Must Be Matched to Output Over Time 
 Costs Must Be Corrected for Inflation 

The firm's cost functions are based on the assumption of constant input prices. If input prices increase,
they will cause an upward shift of the entire cost function. Therefore, input prices will have to be
included as additional explanatory variables in the regression analysis in order to identify their
independent effect on costs. Other independent variables that may have, to be included in the
regression analysis are fuel and material costs, the quality of inputs, the technology used by the firm,
weather conditions, and changes in the product mix and product quality. 

The actual independent or explanatory variables included in the regression (besides output) depend on
the particular situation under examination. Thus, we can postulate that

 C = f (Q, X1, X2,... ,Xn) 

Where,

C – total variable cost

Q – output

X’s – other determinants of the firms cost

The Functional Form of Short-Run Cost Functions

Economic theory postulates an S-shaped (cubic) TVC curve as indicated in the left panel of
Figure 1, with corresponding U-shaped AVC and MC curves. The general equations for these
functions are, respectively,
Cubic TVC Function
TVC = a (Q) + bQ2 + cQ3

 AVC = TVC/Q = a+ bQ+cQ2

 MC = a + 2bQ+ 3cQ2

Where conditions for U-shape cost functions are: a > 0, b < 0 and c > 0

The right panel of Figure 1 shows a linear approximation to the cubic TVC curve, which often
gives a good empirical fit of the data points over the observed range of outputs. The estimated
equations of the linear approximation to the S-shaped or cubic TVC curve and of its
corresponding AVC and MC curves are 
Linear TVC function
 TVC = a + bQ
a
AVC = Q + b
MC = b
ESTIMATING LONG-RUN COST FUNCTIONS WITH CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA
The objective of estimating the long-run cost curves is to determine the best scale of
plant for the firm to build in order to minimize the cost of producing the anticipated level of
output in the long run. Theoretically, long-run cost curves can be estimated with regression
analysis utilizing most of the time Cross-Sectional Data. Regression analysis using Cross-
Sectional Data to estimate the long-run cost curves also presents some difficulties, however.
For one thing, firms in different geographical regions are likely to pay different prices for their
inputs, and so input prices must be included together with the levels of output as independent
explanatory variables in the regression.

 It may also be very difficult to determine if each firm is operating the optimal scale of plant at
the optimal level of output (i.e; at the point on its SAC curve which forms part of its LAC curve).
Specifically, in order to be able to estimate LAC curve A’’ C’’ G’’ R’’ in Figure 2, the firms
represented by SAC1, SAC2, SAC 3 and SAC4 must operate at points A’’, C’’, G’’, and
R’’, respectively. If in fact the four firms are producing at points A*, C*, G*, and R*,respectively,
we would be estimating the dashed LAC’ curve, which overestimates the degree of both the
economies and diseconomies of scale. The estimated long-run average cost curves seem to
indicate sharply increasing returns to scale (falling LAC curve) at low levels of output followed
by near-constant returns to scale at higher levels of output (i.e; the LAC curve seems to be L-
shaped or nearly so).

Estimating Long-Run Cost Functions with Engineering and Survival Techniques

 The engineering technique uses knowledge of the physical relationship between

inputs and output expressed by the production function to determine the
optimal input combination needed to produce, various levels of output by
multiplying the optimal quantity of each input by the price of the input, we
obtain the long-run cost function of the firm. 

The engineering technique is not without problems, however. These arise because,
 1. It deals only with the technical aspects of production without considering
administrative, financing, and marketing cost.
2. It deals with production under ideal rather that actual real world condition.
3. It is based on current technology, which may soon become obsolete.

The survival technique (first expounded by John Staurt Mill, 1850’s, and elaborated by George
Stigler, century later) simply postulated that if large and small firms coexist in the same industry
in the long run scale economies must be constant or nearly so.
With large economies of scale over a wide range of output, large and more efficient firms would
drive smaller and less efficient firms out of business, leaving only large firms in the long run.
Estimates of Short-Run and Long-Run Cost Functions

The table below summarizes the results of the 16 empirical studies on the short-run and long-
run cost functions, as well as on the method of estimation, reported by A. A. Walter in 1963.
The questionnaire’s method is based on managers’ answer to questions asked by the
researcher on the firm’s production cost. Most studied found that in the short run MC is
constant in the observed range of outputs. Most studies also indicate the presence of
economies of scale at all observed levels of output.

Results of Short-Run and Long-Run Cost Functions

Manufacturing Q SR MC declining
Manufacturing Q SR AVC declining
Manufacturing Q SR MC below AVC at all outputs
Furniture TS SR MC constant
Steel TS SR MC constant
Hosiery TS SR MC constant
Dept. store TS SR MC declining or constant
Electricity TS SR AVC Falls approaching constant MC
Manufacturing Q LR Small economies of scale
Manufacturing E LR Economies of scale
Metal E LR Economies of scale, then constant
Gas CS LR Economies of scale
Railways CS LR Economies or constant returns
Electricity CS LR Economies of scale
Electricity CS LR Economies of scale
Electricity CS LR Economies and then diseconomies

Q= questionnaire; TS= time series; E= engineering; CS= cross section

SR= short run, LR= Long run

Stigler applied this technique to the steel industry and measured the share of industry output of
the small, medium, and large firms in the years 1930, 1938, and 1957. He found that the share
of the industry output of small and large firms decline over time, while that of medium-sized
firms increased. Stigler also applied the technique to the automobile industry and concluded
that economies of scale operated at small outputs, but constant returns to scale operated over
the remaining range outputs (i.e.,the LAC curve seems to be L-shaped).