EDA Lecture 5

Discrete Probability
Distribution
Topic Outcomes
• Describe the basic concepts of probability and investigate discrete
probability distributions
• Solve problems under discrete probability distribution
Discrete Probability Distribution
• Such a handful of distributions describe several real-life random phenomena.
• For instance, in a study involving testing the effectiveness of a new drug, the number of
cured patients among all the patients who use the drug approximately follows a binomial
distribution
• In an industrial example, when a sample of items selected from a batch of production is
tested, the number of defective items in the sample usually can be modeled as a
hypergeometric random variable
• In a statistical quality control problem, the experimenter will signal a shift of the process
mean when observational data exceed certain limits. The number of samples required to
produce a false alarm follows a geometric distribution which is a special case of the negative
binomial distribution
• On the other hand, the number of white cells from a fixed amount of an individual’s blood
sample is usually random and may be described by a Poisson distribution
Binomial Distribution
• The probability distribution of the binomial random variable X, then number of
successes in n independent trials, is
• The mean and variance of the binomial distribution b(x;n,p) are

By some estimates, twenty-percent (20%) of Americans have
no health insurance. Randomly sample n = 15 Americans. Let
X denote the number in the sample with no health insurance.
What is the probability that exactly 3 of the 15 sampled have
no health insurance?
What is the probability that at most one of those sampled has
no health insurance?
What is the probability that more than seven have no health
insurance?
What is the probability that at least 1 has no health
insurance?
What is the probability that fewer than 5 have no health
insurance?
• The probability that a leather glove will not crack in a smasso test is
0.75. Find the probability that exactly 2 of the next 4 gloves tested
will not crack.
• Coach purchases leather gloves from Adriste Philippines, Inc. API has
informed Coach that the defective rate of the gloves is 3%. Mitch, the
third party inspector contracted by Coach randomly selects 20 pairs
of gloves from the shipment. What is the probability that there will be
at least one defective item among these 20 pairs?
• It is speculated that an impurity exists in 30% of all water refilling
stations in Metro Manila. To be able to solve the problem, you were
tasked to test randomly 10 refilling stations. Using the binomial
distribution what is the probability that more than 3 refilling stations
have the impurity assuming that the speculation is correct?
• The recent storm, Maring, caused a lot of people to get infected with
a disease. Doctors estimate that a person who got infected with the
disease can recover with a probability of 40%. If 15 people from a
certain barangay in QC are known to have been infected with the
disease, what is the probability that from 3 to 8 survive? Use Table
binomial probability table to estimate the probability.
• According to the Manila Water District, approximately 30%
of all pipework failures in Metro Manila are caused by
substandard materials. What is the probability that out of
the next 20 failures, at least 10 are due to substandard
materials?
• According to the survey conducted by the AMG, one-half of
all IE schools in the NCR give their professors four weeks of
vacation after they have been with the department for 15
years. Find the probability that among 6 schools surveyed at
random, the number that gives employees 4 weeks of
vacation after 15 years of employment is fewer than 3.
MULTINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
• If a given trial can result in k outcomes E1, E2,…, Ek, with
probabilities p1,p2,…,pk, then the probability distribution of
the random variables X1, X2,…,Xk, representing the number
of occurrences for E1, E2,…, Ek, in n independent trials is
MULTINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
• The surface of a circular dartboard has a small center circle called the
bull’s eye and 20 pie-shaped regions numbered from 1-20. Each of
the pie-shaped regions is further divided into three parts such that a
person throwing a dart that lands on a specified number scores the
value of the number, double the number, or triple the number,
depending on which of the three parts the dart falls. If a contestant
hits the bull’s eye with a probability of 0.01, hits a double with a
probability of 0.10, hits a triple with a probability of 0.05, and misses
the dart board with a probability of 0.02, what is the probability that
7 throws will result in no bulls eyes, no triples, a double twice, and a
complete miss once?
HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
• The probability distribution of the hypergeometric random variable X, the
number of successes in a random sample of size n selected from N items of which
k are labeled success and N-k labeled failure, is
• The mean and variance of the hypergeometric distribution h(x;N,n,k) are

• Lots of 40 components each are called unacceptable if they contain as
many as 3 defectives or more. The procedure for sampling the lot is to
select 5 components at random and to reject the lot if a defective is
found. What is the probability that exactly one defective is found in
the sample if there are 3 defectives in the entire lot?
• A manufacturer of laptops reports that among a
shipment of 5000 sent to a local distributor, 1000 are
slightly defective. If one purchases 10 of these laptops
at random from the distributor, what is the probability
that exactly 3 are slightly defective?
• A team of 3rd party inspectors from the EU Community suspects that
some manufacturers from China are in violation of child labor. 20
firms are under suspicion but all cannot be visited. Suppose that 3 of
the companies are in violation, what is the probability that visit and
inspection of 5 firms finds no violations?
MULTIVARIATE HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
• If N items can be partitioned into the k cells A1, A2, … , Ak with a1,
a2,…,ak elements, respectively, then the probability distribution of
the random variables X1, X2,…,Xk, representing the number of
elements selected from A1, A2, … , Ak in a random sample of size n, is
MULTIVARIATE HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
• A group of 10 students are used for an experimental study.

The group comprises of 3 students with blood type O, 4 with
blood type A, and 3 with blood type B. What is the
probability that a random sample of 5 will contain 1 student
with blood type O, 2 students with blood type A, and 2
students with blood type B?
Negative Binomial
• Let us consider an experiment where the properties are the same as
those listed for a binomial experiment, with the exception that the
trials will be repeated until a fixed number of successes occur.
Therefore, instead of the probability of x successes in n trials, where n
is fixed, we are now interested in the probability that the kth success
occurs on the xth trial. Experiments of this kind are called negative
binomial experiments.
Negative Binomial
• As an illustration, consider the use of a drug that is known to be effective in 60%
of the cases where it is used. The drug will be considered a success if it is
effective in bringing some degree of relief to the patient. We are interested in
finding the probability that the fifth patient to experience relief is the seventh
patient to receive the drug during a given week. Designating a success by S and a
failure by F, a possible order of achieving the desired result is SFSSSFS, which
occurs with probability
• We could list all possible orders by rearranging the F’s and S’s except for the last
outcome, which must be the fifth success.
Negative Binomial Distribution
• If repeated independent trials can result in a success with
probability p and a failure with probability q = 1 − p, then the
probability distribution of the random variable X, the
number of the trial on which the kth success occurs, is
• An oil company conducts a geological study that
indicates that an exploratory oil well should have a
20% chance of striking oil. What is the probability that
the first strike comes on the third well drilled?
• In an NBA (National Basketball Association) championship series, the
team that wins four games out of seven is the winner. Suppose that
teams A and B face each other in the championship games and that
team A has probability 0.55 of winning a game over team B.
(b) What is the probability that team A will win the series?
• In an NBA (National Basketball Association) championship series, the
team that wins four games out of seven is the winner. Suppose that
teams A and B face each other in the championship games and that
team A has probability 0.55 of winning a game over team B.
(b) What is the probability that team A will win the series?
Poisson Distribution and the Poisson
Process
• Experiments yielding numerical values of a random variable X, the
number of outcomes occurring during a given time interval or in a
specified region, are called Poisson experiments. The given time
interval may be of any length, such as a minute, a day, a week, a
month, or even a year.
Poisson Distribution
• The probability distribution of the Poisson random variable X,
representing the number of outcomes occurring in a given time
interval or specified region denoted by t, is
• where λ is the average number of outcomes per unit time, distance,

area, or volume and e = 2.71828 . . . .
• On the average, an intersection in Espana results in 3 traffic accidents
per month. What is the probability that for any given month at this
intersection, exactly 5 accidents will occur.
• On the average, an intersection in Espana results in 3 traffic accidents per month.
What is the probability that for any given month at this intersection, less than 3
accidents will occur
• On the average, an intersection in Espana results in 3 traffic accidents per month.
What is the probability that for any given month at this intersection, at least 2
accidents will occur.

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Discrete Probability

• The mean and variance of the binomial distribution b(x;n,p) are

• The mean and variance of the hypergeometric distribution h(x;N,n,k) are

• A group of 10 students are used for an experimental study.

• where λ is the average number of outcomes per unit time, distance,

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