A REPORT

ON

FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON

GOLD
At
Geldwickx

BY XXXXXX

Geldwickx

1
 REPORT

ON

FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON

GOLD
BY
xxxxx
IBS

Geldwickx
A report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of
MBA PROGRAM OF IBS Jaipur

COMPANY GUIDE

MR. V Sai Sriram

2
 CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the work titled “Fundamental and Technical Analysis on Gold” in

Finance is a bona fide record of internship work done by Ms. xxxxxx in partial fulfilment of his

requirement of Masters in Business Administration program of The ICFAI University, Jaipur.

The work has not submitted earlier for any other purpose and the performance of the candidate
was found to be satisfactory during the 3 months course of her internship.

___________________ ___________________
(Sign & Seal) (Sign & Seal)
Company Guide Faculty Guide

3
 DECLARATION

I hereby declare that the study entitled “FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
ON GOLD” is being submitted by me in the partial fulfilment of the requirement of MBA
program of IBS JAIPUR.

The matter embodied in this project report has not been submitted to any other university or
institution for the award of degree. This project is my original work and it has not been presented
earlier in this manner.

(xxxxxx)

4
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This is to acknowledge the persons who gave me their valuable guidance and support in
completing this report successfully and shared their innovative ideas with me to enhance my
internship.

First and foremost, I am thankful to my company guide “Mr. Sai Sriram”” company guide at
“Geldwickx” for giving me such an opportunity to experience corporate exposure.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Certificate from SIP company.…………………………………………………..3

Declaration………..……………………………………………………………..4

Acknowledgement……………………………………………………………….5

1.Executive summary……………………………………………………………8

2.Industry and company analysis……………………………………………….11

2.1Industry analysis………………………………………………………......12

2.1.1Major jewellery brand players india………………………………….12

2.1.2Porters’s five force model…………………………………………….13

2.2Company analysis………………………………………………………...16

2.2.1Introduction…………………………………………………………..16

2.2.2Nature of business……………………………………………………16

2.2.3Vision and Mission…………………………………………………...17

2.2.4Service Profile………………………………………………………..17

2.2.5Swot analysis…………………………………………………………18

3.Objectives of the study………………………………………………………...19

4.Research Methodology………………………………………………………...20

4.1Primary Research………………………………………………………….21

4.2Secondary Research……………………………………………………….21

5.Scope of the study……………………………………………………………...22

6.Limitations of the study………………………………………………………..22

7.Analysis on gold……………………………………………………………….23

7.1Sentimental analysis……………………………………………………….24
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 7.2Fundamental analysis……………………………………………………...24

7.3Technical analysis…………………………………………………………24

7.3.1Types of traders……………………………………………………...25

7.3.2Types of trends………………………………………………………25

7.3.3Types of Charts………………………………………………………25

7.3.4Types of candlestick patterns………………………………………..27

7.3.5Types of indicators…………………………………………………..30

8.Findings and Recommendations……………………………………………….35

9.Conclusion…………………………………………………………………….35

10.Learning Outcomes…………………………………………………………..36

11.Refrences …………………………………………………………………….37

7
 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Industry Profile:
From the primary disclosures of gold in old occasions, its excellence and the straightforwardness
with which it could be worked have propelled experts to utilize it to make decorations, for
embellishment, yet as strong images of riches and influence. The first pure gold coins were struck
by King Croesus of Lydia (present-day Turkey) during his reign between 560 and 547 BC and
gold coins have continued as legal tender since that time. The types of adornments utilized in the
old time frame are very not the same as what we use today.

The most punctual type of gems found in the Indian mainland are depicted as antiquated
adornments and it incorporates studs, globules, special necklaces, seals, and considerably more.

The historical backdrop of gems can be followed back more than 300 BC and gold adornments
was found in the tombs of Tutankhamen. Adornments has been a piece of Indian development
for a long time. Gold decorations have been found that go back similar to the Harappa and
Mohanjodaro civilizations, a great many years BC. It was around 5,000 years in the antiquated
past that the requirement for design of human bodies conceptualized the specialty of gems
making in India.

One of the first to begin gems making were the people groups of the Indus Valley Civilization.
In contrast to numerous different societies, Indus Valley adornments was never covered with the
dead. Rather, gems was passed down to youngsters or family.

Gems was made for people as well as for the Gods. For the rulers, gems were an announcement
of intensity, flourishing and glory. In any case, for the Indian lady, gems was and is, even today
in numerous parts considered as a security, the estimation of which will quite often highlight,
never deteriorate.

Commodity:
Ever since the drawn of civilization, commodity trading has become an integral part of mankind.
The first and foremost reason is that commodity represents the fundamental elements of lifestyle
of human beings. In the early days, people used to exchange goods for goods, which was called
as ‘Barter system’. With the advancement of civilization, trading system has gone through
various changes and has now entered into the era of future trading besides of existence physical
trading across the world. The history of commodity future trading can be traced back to 1688
with the introduction of future trading in rice in Japan. This was followed by an increased

8
participation in commodity derivatives, especially in futures, in the industrialized countries like
America and Britain.

A commodity derivative is a contract which derives its value from an underlying commodity.
The main purpose of future market is to provide a mechanism for successfully managing the
price risk associated with commodities. Future markets provide a platform for buyers and sellers
to trade in a huge number of diverse commodities such as agriculture products, metals and
energy. These markets are not only meant for hedgers, speculators and arbitrages, but also for
retail investors who want to trade in booming commodity market.

Company Profile:
Geldwickx focuses in preparing and teaching people about worldwide market and to hone their
abilities to take part in the money related world, came alive with the intention to provide support
and guidance to the new comers to the trading world. The knowledge and the experience in
trading have customized the training program and made it simple for a layman to understand the
financial market. The courses are focused for individual financial specialists or dealers who need
to figure out how to utilize the instruments and methods as the expert merchants. These courses
offer a complete education and training experience focusing on trading fundamentals, technical
analysis, risk management and highly developed skills of execution for virtually any trading
instrument. In an era of constant changing and volatile financial market, investors need
qualified/trained and an unbiased professional to assist them in achieving their short term and
long term investment goal.

Objectives:

The objectives of study include the following

• To know about the strategies of Technical and Fundamental analysis.

• To know about the trading platform in gold.
• To know about the approaches of potential investors in trading activities.

9
Recommendations:
• A single indictor is not enough for arriving at a selling or buying decision. A combination
of Technical Analysis indicators is required for more accurate decisions.
• Even though Technical Analysis itself is enough for making decisions in commodity
market, simultaneous usage of both Fundamental and Technical Analysis will reduce
errors in forecasting future Prices.
• One should not start trading in market until you get a definite indication of change in
trend to reduce the risk of loss.
• In order to make a perfect trend prediction, analysis of minimum past five years’ data is
required.
• For predicting accurate trend of future prices more sophisticated software are required.

10
 INDUSTRY
AND
COMPANY ANALYSIS

11
 2. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
Gold is a precious metal which is highly ductile and malleable. As a result of this, it is used for
making jewelry and for investment purpose across the globe. Due to the escalating prices of gold,
it is at present being oversold in the bearish market. In times of high inflation, currency
fluctuations, and geopolitical crisis, gold is considered to be the safest investment. In countries
such as Ukraine, Syria, Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia, gold is sold lower than its actual cost due to
geopolitical strife and rebellion in these countries. This report finds that the growth of the global
gold market is likely to be driven by the rising prices of gold across the world.

The research report provides an evaluation of the dynamics that are anticipated to drive or
restrain the growth of the market. It further presents a comprehensive overview of the key
segments of the global gold market along with the share of various regions of the market. The
study presents an assessment of the elements at play in the market along with the predominant
trends. To present a clear picture of the market, the study utilizes Porter’s five forces analysis
and provides an outlook of the competitive landscape of the global gold market. A thorough
evaluation of the strategies, products, and shares of leading companies operating in the global
gold market.

2.1.1 Major jewelry brand players India

There is lot of confusion in the Rs 2,00,000-croredomesticjewelleryindustryinIndia.The
definition of brands which is nearly 50 years old means -all jewellery with a mark, whether a
house mark or trade mark or brand mark, will be considered as branded gold jewellery. The
national jewellery Brands are present all over India and some of them operate overseas. The Top
5 Gold Jewellery Brands in India are:

Tanishq:
A Tata group initiative is the top jewelry brand and has an obvious edge over the others. Tanishq
pioneered the concept of jewellery as a 'brand' in India and they are obviously reaping the
benefits now.

Thribhuvandas Bhimji Zaveri (TBZ):

An inspiring story of a household jeweller turning into a nation wide jewellery chain. After 150
years of being in business, today it is one of the top jewellery brands in India with their base in
Mumbai.

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D'Damas:
A joint venture of the indigenous Gitanjali Jewellers and the UAE bases Damas group.
D'Damas is famous for its unconventional gold jewellery designs.

P. C. Chandra Jewellers:
P.C Chandra is a brand from the east, specialized in Bengali gold jewellery designs. Indians
are pretty finicky about gold and the designs they wear are highly culture specific.

Jos Alukkas:
One of the top jewellery brands from down south, based in Thrissur, Kerala. Their stores are
spread all across the 4 southern states. They are doing very well in wedding jewellery.

2.1.2 PORTER’S FIVE FORCE MODEL ANALYSIS:

It is defined as a framework which is used to analyze the level of competition in the industry.

• Threat of new entrants

• Threat of substitute products
• Bargaining power of customers
• Bargaining power of suppliers

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Threat of new entrants:

• The main barrier to entry is financing.

• All precious metal industry including the most prominent metal gold is highly capital
intensive.
• Therefore, the threat of new entrants is relatively low.
Threat of substitute products:

• The threat from substitutes is relatively low.

• Substitutes for gold include other precious metals like silver, platinum, diamond etc.
• Although their acceptance level is lower than gold.

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Power of buyers:

• Buyer’s power is high in the gold industry as the gold is a commodity based product.
• Therefore, gold mined by one company is not very different from the gold mined by
another.

Power of suppliers:

• The primary resource a gold mine needs is land which is available in large amount in the
world.
• So, the only supply problems remains is the government’s permit to mine the land.
Competition rivalry:

• The four industry structures that were mentioned ultimately drives competitions and
profitability not the evolution of the industry in terms of being it high tech or low tech,
emerging or mature, regulated or unregulated.

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 COMPANY ANALYSIS

2.2.1 Introduction:

In an era of constant changing and volatile financial Market, Investors need Qualified
/Trained and an unbiased professional to assist them in achieving their short term and
long term Investment goal.

After several years in the financial services industry, in 2020, we sought to create our
own boutique advisory firm based on the principles of independence, transparency and
client advocacy. At Geldwickx our single utmost aim is to assist clients with dedication
and integrity so that we exceed their expectations and build enduring relationships.

We provide comprehensive financial planning, intense training, overall wealth

management, and strategic investment advice to individuals, entrepreneurs, and families
who seek unbiased, intelligent advice and counsel. We offer technology based services
for our clients to effectively monitor their portfolio and help them in reaching their
financial goals.

We focus at being the most reliable, prompt and efficient provider of financial services.
We have become a trusted and credible source of unbiased objective financial adviser
and counsel to help individuals and families properly manage their wealth and other
financial matters.

2.2.2 Nature of business carried:

Geldwickx is a financial service providing company it operates globally. It has various

business activities like

• Training
• Stock market
• Advisory services

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2.2.3 Vision and Mission of the company
Vision:

To be the most trusted and respected professional services firm recognized by our clients
delivering excellent services, which is value for money and more than their expectations.

Mission:

To develop meaningful and life long relationship with the clients by providing them the highest
quality services and address every aspect of their financial related issues.

2.2.4 Service Profile:

Geldwickx is a financial service provider. It provides the various services as follows:

Financial Services:

Plan and evaluate your strategy with our suite of investment research tools, which let you analyse
investment performance and market conditions to see if your next idea can help you reach your
goals -
• Financial services
• Amplify your idea generation with third party research.
• Set your goals and define your strategies.
• Execute your plan monitor your progress.

Risk management:

Risk management is the continuing process to identify, analyze, evaluate, and treat loss
exposures and monitor risk control to mitigate the adverse effects of loss. While a variety of
different strategies can mitigate or eliminate risk, the process for identifying and managing the
risk is fairly standard. First, threats or risks are identified. And then the vulnerability of key
assets like information to the identified threats is assessed.

Risk Control Techniques:

Avoidance of activities which cause loss.

Reduction of the frequency of loss- risk prevention.

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Reduction of the severity of loss – risk reduction.

2.2.5 SWOT ANALYSIS

Strength:
• Emphasis on building stronger bond with customers.
• Training and consulting.
• Headed by professionals who have more knowledge and experience in this field.
• Provides services to both corporate and non-corporate clients.
• Dedicated workforce.

Weaknesses
• Service expansion to large clients is not possible.
• Low workforce.

Opportunities

• More customers and clients want to invest their money to multiply it.
• Business climate favorable.
• Emerging stock markets.

Threats:

• Many New players.

• Market is very dynamic in nature.

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 3. OBJECTIVES:
The objectives of current study include:

• To know about the strategies of Technical and Fundamental analysis.

• To know about the approaches of potential investors in trading activities.

• To understand how volatility takes place in gold with the help of technical analysis.

• To acquire and gain knowledge with corporate exposure by working as business

counsultant in a trading firm.

• Technical analysis using Charts and indicators.

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 RESEARCH
METHODOLOGY

20
 4. METHODOLOGY:
Meaning of research: Research in common paralance refers to a search for a knowledge.
One can also define research as a scientific and systemetic research for pertinent information
on a specific topic. In fact research is an art of scientific investigation. Research as a
“systematized effort to gain new knowledge”. Some people consider research a movement
from known to the unknown.

Area of the research: - Finance

Topic of the research:- Fundamental and Technical analysis

Period of the research:- 60 days

Methodology of study: Research methodology is careful, patient, systemetic, diligent enquiry

or examination in some field of knowledge undertaken to establish facts or principle. From the
above definition I can summaries the following nature of research.

• It is a systemetic, intelectual, creative thinking process.

• It adopts the systemetic methodology.
• There is objective enquire based on factual observation that can be quantified.
• The objective is a establish to a theory or principle.
• To make theory as a generalization.
• To explain the existing knowledge is the objective of research.

Data Collection:

4.1 Primary data:

The primary data is collected from live market i.e. (Meta trader 4FX market). The data
is also collected from the clients regarding their investment opportunities in gold.

4.2 Secondary data:

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The secondary data is collected from investing.com, returns.com, Gold world, MCX,
international news report.
From various text books, journals, magazines, newspapers and booklets from the
company.

5. SCOPE OF THE STUDY:

• The scope of this project is limited to only commodity market with respect to
metal indices.
• The project does not extend to any other sector.
• The study provide a chance to know about fundamental and technical analysis
and various tools that are used in the analysis.
• This study covers price movement and average volatility of commodities.

6. LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY:

• There is possibility for some descrepancies to come in between due to
following limitations.
• Time interval for conducting the project is just 60 days, hence an exhaustive
data cannot be collected due to time constraint.
• No technical analysis tool is perfect,but it should be remembered that the
indices are measuring what has already taken place, it is upto the interpreter
to provide a meaningful forecast.
• A chart does not provide with the means to predict future price action with
certainity.

22
GOLD MARKET
ANALYSIS

23
 7. Gold market analysis
There are three types of analysis:

1.Sentimental analysis
2.Fundamental analysis
3.Technical analysis

7.1 Sentimental analysis:

Each trader has his or her own opinion of why the market is acting the way it does. Each trader’s
thoughts and opinions, which are expressed through whatever position they take, helps form the
overall sentiment of the market regardless of what information is out there

In the forex market each trader will be having different opinion on the market. In India people
usually buy gold on particular auspicious days like Akshaya Tritiya, Dhanteras etc.

7.2 Fundamental analysis:

Analyzing micro and macro - economic factors which has current impact on the currency markets
by supply and demand as indicator. The tough task is analyzing all the factors that affect supply
and demand, the affects are due to any force like social, economic and political.

7.3 Technical analysis:

24
Collecting the historical price movements, determining the current trading conditions and
potential price movements which helps to place buy/sell call. Technical analysis involves
analyzing the data which is present on the forex market by using different indicators.

Types of tools and indicators used in the technical analysis are as follows

7.3.1 Types of traders:

Intraday:

It is a market where trader buys and sells the securities/currencies within a day. In this market
after taking a buy or sell order you can exit at any time it may be seconds, minute, hour etc.
Intraday trading is usually used in order to eliminate the need to pay fees for keeping the position
overnight and these fees are referred to as swaps.

Short – term:

It is a market where trader takes a position less than 365 days or holding the position more than
one day.

Long – term:

It is a market where a trader takes a position for more than 365 days. This type of market is used
to generate larger profits i.e. minimum of 200 pips.

7.3.2 Types of trends:

Bull trend:

The uptrend of the market is called bull trend i.e. buy order should be taken.

Bare trend:

The downtrend of the market is called bare trend i.e. sell order should be taken.

Sideway:

The movement of the market in horizontal position is called sideway trend also called horizontal
trend. In this trend it is better to exit the position.

7.3.3 Types of charts:

25
Line chart:

A simple line chart draws a line from one closing price to the next closing price or connects a
series of data points with a line.

Bar chart:

It represents the data using the bars of different heights. The bottom of the vertical bar indicates
the lowest price, while the top of the bar indicates the highest price. The horizontal hash on the
left side of the bar is the opening price and right side is closing price.

Candle stick chart:

26
Candlestick charts show the same price information as a bar chart but in graphic format. This
chart describes the forms of technical analysis charting used in Stock market, Forex market and
other markets.

Japanese candle stick

These candlesticks are used for any forex period, whether it be 30 minutes, hourly, one day,
weekly and monthly. These are formed using the open, high, low and close of the chosen time
period.

Green candlestick:

It refers to buy or bull candle which specifies that opening at low price and closing at high price.

Red candlestick:

It refers to sell or bearish candle which specifies that opening at high price and closing at low
price.

27
7.3.4 Types of candlestick patterns:
Hammer and hanging man candlestick:

Hammer candlestick pattern is a bullish reversal pattern. The pattern looks like a hammer. It
forms a downtrend and considered as a market bottom support. Hanging man candlestick pattern
is a bearish reversal pattern, which forms uptrend and considered as market top or a resistance
price.

Piercing candlestick patterns:

Piercing candlestick serves as an indicator either to buy a stock or close out short positions
because the stock may move upward. As per this candle, the new green candle should be low
and should close down 50% of the previous candle, if the significant downtrend follows it is
bearish otherwise bullish.

Engulfing:

It is bullish reversal pattern usually occurs at the bottom of downtrend. The pattern consists of
two candlesticks. When a significant downtrend (red candle) is followed, the new candle should

28
make a new low and high simultaneously but the previous candle should cover inside the body.
If the bullish is formed (green candle) the market will shoot up.

Bearish reversal pattern usually occurs at the top of an uptrend; the pattern consists of two
candlesticks. When a significant uptrend (green candle) and new candle is formed which makes
new high and low simultaneously but the previous candle should cover inside the body. If the
bearish is formed (red candle) the market will shoot down.

Morning star:

The pattern has three candles forming at the bottom of the downtrend. The first candle is long
and bearish. The second candle is small and indecisive candlestick. The third candle is long and
bullish candle. It is a reversal pattern.

29
Evening star:

It is also a reversal pattern which contains three candles. It forms at a top of an uptrend. The first
candle is long and bullish. The second candle is small and indecisive candlestick. The third
candle is long and bearish candle.

7.3.5 Types of indicators:

Support and resistance:

30
From the above diagram, the zigzag pattern is moving upwards (bull or buy market). When the
market moves up and pulls back the highest point reached before it pulled back is called
Resistance. If the market continues to go up again the lowest point reached before it goes up is
called Support.

Stop loss and take profit orders:

Stop loss: An order placed to sell a currency when it reaches certain price.

Take profit: Pending order is called take profit it will fix the profits when it is reached.

Stop loss and take profit are different for buying and selling:

For buying stop loss should be less and take profit should be high.

For selling stop loss should be high and take profit should be low.

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Pivot points:

In forex market pivot points is referred to” PP”. Pivot points are used to identify potential support
and resistance levels. A pivot point and its support/resistance levels are areas at which the
direction can possibly change. Pivot point is calculated by using the last trading season’s open,
high, low and close. The following is the formula.

Pivot Point (PP)= Average of (Open price+ high price+ low price +close price)

If the PP is greater than current market price, it acts as resistance and a sell order should be
followed.

If the PP is less than current market price, it acts as support and a buy order should be followed.

Relative strength index:

Particulars USDCAD

Open price 1.28065

High price 1.29245

Low price 1.27919

Close price 1.28742

Pivot points 1.28492

32
The RSI measures the ratio of up-moves to down-moves and normalizes the calculation so that
index is expressed in a range of 0-100.

If the RSI is greater than 70 it is overbought and if RSI is less than 30 it is oversold.

Bollinger Bands:

33
Bollinger bands is a chart indicator used to measure the volatility of the market. This tool tells
us whether the market is quiet or loud. when the market is quiet the bands contract and when the
market is loud, the bands expands.

Moving averages:

There are two types of moving averages

1.Simple moving average

2.Exponential moving average.

Moving averages helps to determine the potential direction of the market prices. This indicator
is used to forecast the future prices. The average is taken for a particular period of time it may
be 5 days,20 minutes etc.

Stochastic oscillator:

34
One of the methods of looking into the stochastic oscillator is to look for overbought areas and
oversold areas. If the stochastic oscillator is below 20 then it is oversold reading. If the stochastic
oscillator is above 80 then it is oversold reading.

8. KEY FINDINGS:

• News of top currencies effects the price of the gold.

• Minimum of three indicators are required to give a buy or sell order.
• Intraday calls or orders helps in minimizing the risks for the new comers or traders.
• While analysing the data different indicators gives the different interpretation, so go for
the result which was given by minimum of three indicators.
• Pivot points gives stronger support/resistance only when it coincides with one of the other
technical indicators.
• To interpret the data along with the technical analysis, fundamental analysis also plays a
major role.
• For the analysis purpose to get the accurate results, the data collected from the number
days should be higher.

35
Recommendations:
Technical analysis will improve the investment decisions. It is simple and more reliable than
fundamental analysis because the information required for Technical analysis is freely available
as compared to fundamental analysis.

• A single indictor is not enough for arriving at a selling or buying decision. A combination
of Technical Analysis indicators is required for more accurate decisions.
• Even though Technical Analysis itself is enough for making decisions in commodity
market, simultaneous usage of both Fundamental and Technical Analysis will reduce
errors in forecasting future Prices.
• One should not start trading in market until you get a definite indication of change in
trend to reduce the risk of loss.
• In order to make a perfect trend prediction, analysis of minimum past five years’ data is
required.
• For predicting accurate trend of future prices more sophisticated software are required.

9.CONCLUSION:

The study shows that Technical analysis indicators used for Analyzing and Forecast of gold can
give a fair idea about future price movements in currency market. It is easy for anybody to do
Technical Analysis because of the easy availability of information. But it is necessary to use
more that 5 to 10 indicators before reaching a conclusion regarding selling or buying decision.

10.LEARNING OUTCOMES:
Corporate culture:

I understood that maintaining and sustaining corporate discipline is must for professionals.
Punctuality is another aspect where I have learned from the varied knowledgeable employees
and management.

36
Skills towards subject:
Unlike Indian markets, forex markets were new journey of knowledge where I gained aspects of
forex trading and analyst skills. I have developed skills required for the subject with respect to
proper analysis and reporting.

Working styles:
Every Friday or Saturday There are people in the organization who give out their night sleep
and would like to take position in the market at the right time. This gives an immense pleasure
and inspiration towards hard work which pays huge profits. Management is friendly towards
employees and interns, which comes to rescue at every help the management conducts games
and sports for 1 hour to relax for the coming week. Such a culture helps the person to recover
from the losses made by taking positions.

Time management:
Internship has helped me to manage time allocation to different tasks allotted in the company.
There is work pressure at the time of fundamentals surging the currencies.

37