BSM Unit-2 Questions & Solutions

Sample space and sample point: Set S of all outcomes of a random experiment is called sample space, e.g. in
rolling of a die, S= {1,2,3,4,5,6}. Each element of S is sample point.
Mutually exclusive events: A number of events A1, A2 ,…, An are said to be mutually exclusive when occurrence
of any one of the events excludes the occurrence of all other events. Alternatively, the events are called disjoint
events. Thus, for mutually exclusive events A1, A2,…, An, we have A1∩A2∩…∩An = ∅.
Classical, Mathematical or a priory definition of probability: Let S be the set of all equally likely outcomes of a
random experiment, and A be any event (a subset of S) associated with the experiment. Then the probability of
occurrence of A, denoted by P(A) defined as
𝑛(𝐴) number of outcomes favourable to 𝐴
P(A)= = .
𝑛(𝑆) Exhaustive number of cases in 𝑆
For example, in a die rolling experiment S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, event A of showing up odd numbers is A= {1, 2, 3}.
Therefore, P(A)=n(A)/n(S)=3/6=0.5
Axiomatic definition of probability: Probability P of any event A written as P(A) is a real-valued function P:
A→[0, 1] satisfying the following axioms:
(i) 0<P(A)<1; (ii) P(S) = 1, S is sample space.(iii) If A1 and A2 are mutually exclusive then P(A1UA2)=P(A1) + P(A2)
Note: (i) P(Φ) = 0 because P(SUΦ) =P(S) or P(S)+P(Φ)=P(S) or P(Φ)=0
(ii) P(A’) =1-P(A) because P(AUA’) =P(S) or P(A)+P(A’) =1 So P(A’) =1- P(A).

1 (a) State and prove addition rule of probability.

Sol. 1 (a): Addition rule: For any two non-disjoint events A and
B, we have P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A∩B).
Proof: From the diagram:
A=(A∩B’) U (A∩B ) (1)
B= (A∩B) U (A’∩B ) (2)
Here (A∩B’) ∩ (A∩B) ∩ (A’∩B )=Φ.
But AUB= (A∩B’) U(A∩B)U(A’∩B).
So, P (AUB)= P(A)+P(A’∩B) (3)
[By axiom A3 and Eq .(1)]
From Eq. (2): P(B)=P(A∩B) +P(A’∩B) by A3. Fig. 1: Mutually exclusive A∩B’, A∩B & A’∩B
Or P (A’∩B) = P(B)-P(A∩B) (4)
Using Eq. (4) in (3): P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A∩B)
Note: For n=3: P(A1UA2UA3)
= P((A1UA2) UA3)
[Here we take A1UA2= A, A3=B]
= P(A1UA2)+P(A3)-P((A1UA2)∩A3)
=P(A1)+P(A2)-P(A1∩A2)+P(A3)-P[(A1 ∩A3)U(A2∩A3)]
= P(A1)+P(A2) +P(A3)-P(A1∩A2)-[P(A1 ∩A3)+P(A2∩A3)-
P{(A1∩A3)∩(A2∩A3)]
[by taking A1∩A3=A, A2∩A3=B]
= P(A1)+P(A2)+P(A3)-P(A1∩A2)-P(A1∩A3)
-P(A2∩A3)+P(A1∩A2∩A3) Fig. 2: (A1∩A3) ∩ (A2∩A3) =A1∩ A2∩A3
[Fig.2:(A1 ∩A3)∩(A2∩A3)=A1∩A2∩A3]
1 (b) A problem is given to three students A, B and C.
Probabilities of solving them independently are 1/5, 2/3, 1/4. if all of them try to solve the problem, what is the
probability that the problem is solved.
Sol. 1 (b): Given P(A) = 1/5, P(B)= 2/3, P(C)=1/4, P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B) = (1/5) (2/3) =2/15.
P(B∩C) = P(B) P(C) = (2/3) (1/4) =1/6, P(C∩A) = P(C) P(A) = (1/4) (1/5) =1/20
We use P(AUBUC)=P(A)+P(B)+ P(C) -P(A∩B)- P(B∩C)- P(C∩A) =1/5 + 2/3 +1/4 -2/15-1/6-1/20
= (12+40+15-8-10-3)/60 = (67-21)/60 =46/60 =23/30.

2 (a) State and prove multiplication rule of probability. Or Define conditional probability.
Sol. 2 (a): Multiplication rule: For any two events A & B, P(A∩B)= P(A|B) P(B), P(A∩B)= P(B|A) P(A)
where P(A|B) is called conditional probability of occurrence of the event A given that the event B has already
occurred (read as probability of A given B) and it is defined as
1

P(A|B)=n(A∩B)/n(B) =[n(A∩B)/n(S)]/[n(B)/n(S)] = P(A∩B)/P(B), So P(A|B)= P(A∩B)/P(B).

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Also P(B|A)=n(A∩B)/n(A) =[n(A∩B)/n(S)]/[n(A)/n(S)] = P(A∩B)/P(A), So P(B|A)= P(A∩B)/P(A).

Therefore, P(A∩B)= P(A|B) P(B), P(A∩B)= P(B|A) P(A).
 2 (b) The odds against Manager X settling the wage dispute with the workers are 8:6 and odds in favour of
manager Y settling the same dispute are 14:16. What is the probability that
(i) neither settle the dispute, if they both try independently? (ii) the dispute will be settled?

Sol.: Odds against the manager X =No. of unfavourable outcomes/ No. of favourable outcomes=8/6.
That is, nu/nF = 8/6 So, P (X settles the wage dispute) = P(X) = nF /(nu+nF) = 6/14.
Odds in favour of the manager =No. of favourable outcomes/ No. of unfavourable outcomes=14/16.
i.e., nF/nu = 14/16 So, P (Y settles the wage dispute) = P(Y) = nF /(nu+nF) = 14/30 =7/15.
(i) P(neither X nor Y settle the dispute)= P(X’∩Y’)= P(X’)P(Y’) = (8/14)(12/15) =32/105.
[Since A and B are independent, so are A’ and B’.]
P (The dispute will be settled) = P(X)+P(Y)-P(X)P(Y)=6/14 + 7/15 -1/5 = 3/7+4/15
= (45+28)/105=73/105
Aliter: Let A be the event that the manager X will settle the dispute and B be the event that the Manager Y
will settle the dispute. Then clearly P(A') = 8/ (8+6) = 4/7 => P (A) = 1 - P (A') = 1-4/7= 3/7.
P(B) =14/ (14 + 16) = 7/15 => P(B’) =1-P(B) = 1-7/15 =12/15.
Required probability that neither settles the dispute is given by: P(A'∩B') = P(A') P(B’) = (4/7) (12/25) =32/105.
[Since A and B are independent => A’ and B’ are also independent]
(ii) The dispute will be settled if at least one of the managers X and Y settles the dispute. Hence the required
probability is given by:
P (A U B) = Prob. [ At least one of X and Y settles the dispute]
= 1 - Prob. [ None settles the dispute] = 1- P(A'∩ B')= 1-32/105 =73/105.
3. (a) Define conditional probability. Or State and prove multiplication (product) rule of probability.
Sol.: Conditional probability P(A|B) of occurrence of the event A given that the event B has already occurred
(read as probability of A given B) and it is defined as
P(A|B)=n(A∩B)/n(B) =[n(A∩B)/n(S)]/[n(B)/n(S)] = P(A∩B)/P(B), So P(A|B)= P(A∩B)/P(B).
Similarly, P(B|A)=n(A∩B)/n(A) =[n(A∩B)/n(S)]/[n(A)/n(S)] = P(A∩B)/P(A), So P(B|A)= P(A∩B)/P(A).
Therefore, P(A∩B)= P(A|B) P(B), P(A∩B)= P(B|A) P(A).

3 (b) An MBA candidate applies for a job in two firms A and B. The probability of his being selected in firm A
is 0.7 and being rejected in firm B is 0.5. The probability of at least one of his applications being rejected is 0.6.
What is the probability that he will be selected in one of the firms?
Sol.: Let A and B denote the events that the MBA candidate is selected in firms A and B respectively.
Given: P(A)=0.7⇒P(A’)=1−0.7=0.3; P(B)=0.5⇒P(B’)=1−0.5=0.5 and P(A’∪B’)=0.6.
The probability that the persons will be selected in one of the two firms X or Y is given by:
P(A∪B)=1−P(A’∩B’)=1−(P(A’)+P(B’)−P(A’∪B’)) =1−(0.3+0.5−0.6) =0.8.

Independent Events: Two events A and B are said to be independent if and only if P(A∩B) =P(A). P(B).
Note: If we compare this equation with product rule, P(A∩B) = P(A|B) P(B) & P(A∩B) = P(B|A) P(A), we get
P(A)= P(A|B) and P(B)= P(B|A)
Example 1: In rolling of a fair die, the event A is showing up of a prime number and B is showing up of
the numbers 1 or 3. Find P(A|B) and P(A|B).
A= {2, 3, 5}, B= {1, 3}, A∩B= {3}, P(A)=1/2, P(B)=1/3 P(A∩B) =1/6.
So, P(A|B) = P(A∩B)/P(B) = (1/6)/ (1/3) =1/2.
P(B|A) = P(A∩B)/P(A) = (1/6)/ (1/2) =1/3.
See here P(A|B) ≠P(B|A). But, A and B are independent.
Example 2: In a random experiment of rolling a fair die once and tossing a fair coin once, an event A of the die
showing 1 or 2 and event B of the coin showing heads are independent.
Sol.: S= {(1, H), (2, H), (3, H), (4, H), (5, H), (6, H), (1, T), (2, T), (3, T), (4, T), (5, T), (6, T)}
A= {(1, H), (2, H), (1, T), (2, T)}; P(A)=4/12=1/3
B= {(1, H), (2, H), (3, H), (4, H), (5, H), (6, H)} =6/12=1/2.
Thus, P(A∩B) =P [{(1, H), (2, H)}] =2/12= P(A). P(B).

4 (a) State and prove Baye’s theorem.

Sol.: Bayes Theorem: Let B1, B2, …, Bn are n exhaustive and mutually exclusive events with P(Bi)>0, i
2

=1,2,..,n and A is any event associated with Bi such that A is a subset of B1UB2U,…,UBn and P(A)>0), then
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 P(Bi|A) = P(A|Bi) P(Bi) /P(A) where P(A) is total probability
given by P(A)= P(A|B1)P(B1)+P(A|B2) P(B2)+…+P(A|Bn) P(Bn)

Proof: We have P(Bi|A) =P(A∩Bi)/P(A) (1)

Also, P(A|Bi) =P(A∩Bi)/P(Bi) (2)
Dividing Eq. (1) by Eq. (2), we get
P (Bi| A) = P (A| Bi) P(Bi) /P(A)
Since A is associated with all Bi, so by the total probability
theorem here, we have
P(A)=P(A|B1)P(B1)+P(A|B2) P(B2)+…+P(A|Bn)P(Bn)

(b) In a bolt factory machines A, B and C manufacture 25%, 35% and 40% respectively of the total. Of their
output 5%, 4% and 2% respectively are defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the product and is found
to be defective. What are the probabilities that it was manufactured by machines A, B and C respectively?
Sol.: Let A, B, C be the events of Production of bolts from
machines M1, M2 and M3 respectively and D be event defective
bolts as output. Then total probability is
P(D)= P(A) P(D|A) + P(B) P(D|B) + P(C) P(D|C)
= .0125+.0140+.0080= .0345
So, P(A|D) = P(A) P(D|A)/P(D)=.0125/.0345= 0.3623
P(B|D) = P(B) P(D|B)/P(D) = 0.0140/.0345= 0.4058
P(C|D) =P(C) P(D|C)/P(D)=0.0080/.0345 = 0.2318

5. (a) State and prove Baye’s theorem.

(b) The probabilities of X, Y and Z becoming managers are 4/9, 2/9, 1/3 respectively. The probabilities that
the bonus scheme will be introduced if X, Y and Z becomes managers are 3/10, 1/2, and 4/5 respectively.
(i) What is the probability that the bonus scheme will be introduced?
(ii) If the bonus scheme has been introduced what is the probability that the manager appointed was X?
Sol. (b): Let X, Y and Z be the events of X, Y and Z respectively becoming
managers and B be event of bonus scheme to be introduced. (i) Total
Probability P(B)= P(X) P(B|X) + P(Y) P(B|Y) + P(Z) P(B|Z)
= (4/9) (3/10) + (2/9) (1/2) + (1/3) (4/5) = (2/15) + (1/9) + (4/15)
= (6+5+8)/45 =21/45 =7/15
(ii) P(X|B) = P(X) P(B|X)/P(B)= (2/15) / (7/15) =2/7
P(Y|B) = P(Y) P(B|Y)/P(B) = (1/9)/ (7/15) = 5/21
P(Z|B) =P(Z) P(B|Z)/P(B)= (4/15) / (7/15) =4/7.

Random Variable (RV or rv) denoted by X, Y, etc. is used to represent occurrence of some stochastic (random)
event by its taking some particular value(s) as X=x, X<x etc. having some probability linked to it.
Discrete RV: A random variable say X is discrete if it can take a finite or countably infinite number of possible
values at X= x or xi for which there exists a function f(x)=P(X=x) or f (xi) =P (X= xi) called discrete density
function or probability mass function (pmf) if and only if 1. f(x) > 0 or f(xi)> 0; 2. Σ all x f (x)=1 or Σi f(xi)=1.
Example: In rolling of a fair die: f(xi) =f(x)=1/6>0, x=1, 2, …, 6; 2. Σall x f(x)= Σx 1/6=1.

Continuous RV: A random variable say X is continuous if it can take infinite many possible values at X= x for
which there exists a function f(x) such that P(x<X< x+dx) = f(x)dx, here f(x) is called probability density
function (pdf) if and only if
1. f(x) > 0; 2. ∫D f(x) dx = 1, where D denotes the domain of RV X e. g. D= (-∞, ∞) has -∞ and ∞ as lower and
upper limits of integration in a given problem.

Q. (a) Define cumulative distribution function (CDF)? State the properties of CDF.
(b) Given the CDF as below.
3

Calculate the probability mass function of X.

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 Sol.: (Cumulative) Distribution function F(x): For a discrete RV X, F(x)=P (X < y) = Σ x< y f(x).
𝑥
For continuous R.V. X, distribution function is F(x) = P (X < x) = ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥.
Note: 1. In a discrete distribution, for a<x<b, we get P(a<X<b) =P(a)+...+ P(b)=F(b) - F(a)
𝑏
2. In a continuous case: P(a<X<b)=P(a<X<b)=P(a<X<b) = P(a<X<b) =∫𝑎 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 = F(b) - F(a)

Some general results on expectation: If a and b are constants then prove that
(a) E[aX+b] = aE(X)+b; (b) Var (aX+b) = a2Var (X).
Sol.: (i) E[aX+b] = a E(X)+b E (1) = a E(X)+b [Since E (1) =Σ f (x)=1]
(ii) Var[aX+b] =E[(aX+b)2]- {E(aX+b)}2 =E[a2X2+2abX+b2]- {a E(X)+b}2
= a2E(X2) +2abE(X)+ b2 – {a2 [E(X)] 2 +2abE(X)+b2} = a2E(X2)-a2 [E(X)] 2 = a2{E(X2)-[E(X)] 2 = a2 Var[X].

6. A random variable X has the following probability function:

X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
P(X) 0 K 2K 2K 3K K 5K K

Determine: i) K value ii) Evaluate P(X<6), P(X≥6) iii) Mean iv) Variance
Sol.: i) K value: 0+K+2K+2K+3K+K+5K+K =1 or 15 K = 1 or K =1/15
ii) P(X<6) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) +P(X=3) + P(X=4) +P(X=5) =0+K+2K+2K+3K+K = 9K=9/15
P(X≥6) = 1- P(X<6) = 1-9/15 = 6/15.
iii) Mean = 0.P(X=0) +1. P(X=1) +2. P(X=2) +3. P(X=3) +4. P(X=4) +5. P(X=5) +6. P(X=6) +7. P(X=7)
=0+K+4K+6K+12K+5K +30K+7K= 63K =63/15 =21/5 =4.2
iv) Variance = E(X2 ) –[E(X]2 = ∑7𝑥=0 𝑥 2 𝑃(𝑥) –(Mean)2
= 02.P(X=0) +12. P(X=1) +22. P(X=2) +32. P(X=3) +42. P(X=4) +52. P(X=5) +62. P(X=6) +72. P(X=7)- (63K) 2
=0 +K +4 (2K) +9(2K) + 16(3K) +25 K +36 (5K) + 49 K - (21/5)2
= K+8K+18K+48K+25K+180K +49K -(21/5)2 =329K-(21/5)2 = 329/15-441/25 = 21.933-17.6 =4.2933

7.A continuous random variable X has the probability density function,

cx(2  x), if 0  x  2
f ( x)   where c is a constant.
0, otherwise
Find mean and variance.
∞ 2 2
Sol.: ∫−∞ 𝑓 (𝑥)𝑑𝑥 =1, or ∫0 𝑐𝑥 (2 − 𝑥)𝑑𝑥 =1 or or ∫0 𝑐(2𝑥 − 𝑥 2 ) 𝑑𝑥 =1
2
or c.[2𝑥 2 /2-x3/3] =1 or c[4-8/3]=1, or c[(12-8)/3] =1 . ∴ c=3/4.
0
∞ 2 2 2
E(X)= ∫−∞ 𝑥𝑓 𝑥 𝑑𝑥=∫0 𝑥𝑐 (2𝑥 − 𝑥 2 )𝑑𝑥 =𝑐 ∫0 (2𝑥 2 − 𝑥 3 )𝑑𝑥 = 𝑐 (2𝑥 3 /3 − 𝑥 4 /4)| = (3/4) (16/3-4) = (3/4)=1.
( )
0
∞ 2 ( ) 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 2
E(X )= ∫−∞ 𝑥 𝑓 𝑥 𝑑𝑥 =∫0 𝑥 𝑐(2𝑥 − 𝑥 )𝑑𝑥 =𝑐 ∫0 (2𝑥 − 𝑥 )𝑑𝑥 =c[2𝑥 /4-𝑥 /5] = (3/4) [8-32/5] = (3/4)=6/5.
2
0
Therefore, Var(X) = E(X2)-[E(X)]2 = 6/5-1=1/5.
4
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8. Covishield is used to maintain a steady heart rate in patients who have suffered a mild heart attack due
COVID19. Let X denote the number of heart beats per minute obtained per patient as given in the following table.
 x 40 60 68 70 72 80 100
f ( x ) 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.80 0.05 0.04 0.01
Find the average heartbeat of the patients and also find the variance of heart beats
Sol.: As shown in the following table, we get the average heart beat as E(x)=Σ x f(x) = 70.
Variance as σ2 = Var(X)=E(X2)-µ2 =Σx2f –(Σxf)2 =4926.4-4900= 26.4 Therefore, Standard Deviation σ= 5.138
X 40 60 68 70 72 80 100
f(x) 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.80 0.05 0.04 0.01 Total
xf 0.4 2.4 3.4 56.0 3.6 3.2 1.0 70.0

x2 f 16.0 144.0 231.2 3920.0 259.2 256.0 100.0 4926.4

Two-Dimensional Random Variable (2D RV):

A 2D RV written as (X, Y) involves two single RV’s X and Y both linked with outcomes ‘s’ of same
sample space S. If (X, Y) takes finite or countably infinite values (xi, yi), i = 1, 2, …, m, …; j = 1, 2,…,
n; such that P(X=xi, Y=yj) =fij, then (X, Y) is called a 2D discrete RV with joint probability density
function (jpdf) f (x, y), if and only if (a) fij >0 for all i, j and (b) ΣiΣj fij=1.
If (X, Y) assumes infinite number of values (x, y) in a given area Axy in (x, y) plane such that
P (x<X< x+dx, y<Y< y+dy) =f (x, y) dx dy,
then (X, Y) is called a 2D continuous RV, with jpdf f (x, y), if and only if f (x, y)>0 in region Axy and
∫∫Axy f (x, y) dx dy=1.

Table 1: Joint probability distribution function (jpdf) and mpdf for 2D discrete RV (X, Y) and mpdf
i j 1 2 … N P(X=xi)=pi*=∑𝑁 𝑗=1 𝑝𝑖𝑗

1 𝑝11 𝑝12 … 𝑝1𝑁 p1*=∑𝑁

𝑗=1 𝑝1𝑗
2 𝑝21 𝑝22 … 𝑝2𝑁 p2*=∑𝑁
𝑗=1 𝑝2𝑗

… … … … … …
M 𝑝21 𝑝22 … 𝑝2𝑁 pM*= 𝑁
∑𝑗=1 𝑝𝑀𝑗

P(Y=yj)=p*j=∑𝑀 𝑀 𝑀
𝑖=1 𝑝𝑖𝑗 p*1=∑𝑖=1 𝑝𝑖1 p*2=∑𝑖=1 𝑝𝑖2 … p*N=∑𝑀 𝑀 𝑁
𝑖=1 𝑝𝑖𝑁 p**=∑𝑖=1 ∑𝑗=1 𝑝𝑖𝑗 =1

Conditional Probability: For any two events A1 and A2 , we have P[A1|A2]=P[A1∩A2]/P[A2] (1)
Let X and Y be discrete random variables such that A1 denotes the event X=x and A2 denotes the event
Y=y. Substituting these in (1), we get
5

P[X=x |Y=y]=P[X=x, Y=y]/P[Y=y] Or PX|y (x) =pij/p*j (=pi|j) Or fX|y (x) = fXY(x, y)/fY(y).
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 where fX|y(x) is called conditional probability density function of X given Y=y.
Similarly, we can use P[A2|A1]=P[A1∩A2]/P[A1] to get the conditional probability of Y given X=x as
fY|x (y) = fXY (x, y)/fX(x) Or fY|x (y) =pij/pi* (=pj|i). In tabular form we write the discrete jpdf as given
below.
Also, pi|j = P[X|Y=yj] = pij/p*j = P[X=xi, Y=yj]/P[Y=yj] =[nij/NM]/[∑𝑀 𝑀
𝑖=1 𝑛𝑖𝑗 /N] =𝑛𝑖𝑗 /∑𝑖=1 𝑛𝑖𝑗 ,
and pj|i = P[Y|X=xi] = pij/pi* = P[X=xi, Y=yj]/P[X=xi] =[nij/NM]/[∑𝑁 𝑁
𝑗=1 𝑛𝑖𝑗 /N] =𝑛𝑖𝑗 /∑𝑗=1 𝑛𝑖𝑗 .
So, the table 1 can be rewritten as below and conditional probabilities pi|j and pj|i can be calculated by using the
above mentioned formulae.

Table 2: jpdf for 2 D discrete RV (X, Y) and mpdf in terms of numbers contributing to X=x and Y=y.
i j 1 2 … N ni* =∑𝑁
𝑗=1 𝑛𝑖𝑗

1 𝑛11 𝑛12 … 𝑛1𝑁 n1*=∑𝑁

𝑗=1 𝑛1𝑗
2 𝑛21 𝑛22 … 𝑛2𝑁 n2*=∑𝑁
𝑗=1 𝑛2𝑗

… … … … … …
M 𝑛21 𝑛22 … 𝑛2𝑁 nM* =∑𝑁
𝑗=1 𝑛𝑀𝑗

𝑖=1 𝑛𝑖𝑗 n*1=∑𝑖=1 𝑛𝑖1 n*2=∑𝑖=1 𝑛𝑖2 … n*N=∑𝑖=1 𝑛𝑖𝑁 ∑𝑖=1 ∑𝑗=1 𝑛𝑖𝑗 =N
n*j=∑𝑀 𝑀 𝑀 𝑀 𝑀 𝑁

9. A market survey was conducted in four cities to find out the preference for brand A soap. The responses are
shown below:
Calcutta Delhi Chennai Bangalore
Yes 65 55 70 50

No 30 25 20 45
No opinion 5 20 10 5
(i) What is the probability that a consumer prefers brand A soap?
(ii) What is the probability that a consumer has no opinion about brand A soap?
(iii) What is the probability that a consumer prefers brand A soap and from Chennai?
(iv) What is the probability that a consumer prefers brand A soap given that he was from Bangalore?

Sol.: We complete the table by calculating city-wise and opinion-wise total numbers.

Calcutta Delhi Chennai Bangalore Total number↓

Yes 65 55 70 50 240
No 30 25 20 45 120

No opinion 5 20 10 5 40
Total number→ 100 100 100 100 400

(i) P (A consumer prefers brand A soap) =240/400= 0.60

(ii) P (A consumer has no opinion about brand A soap) =120/400 =0.30.
(iii) P (A consumer prefers brand A soap and from Chennai) =70/400= 7/40.
(iv) P (A consumer prefers brand A soap given that he is from Bangalore) = 50/100 = 0.50.
(v) P (A consumer is from Calcutta given that he has no opinion) = 5/40 = 0.125
(vi) P (A consumer is from Delhi given that he prefers brand A soap) = 55/240.

Aliter: Taking row values i=1, -1 and 0 to denote Yes (preference), No (No preference), 0 (No opinion) and j
= 1, 2, 3 and 4 to denote Calcutta, Delhi, Chennai and Bangalore respectively, we can denote the joint
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 probability pij = P (X=I, Y=j), marginal probability distribution of X i.e. Pi* and marginal probability
distribution of Y i.e. P*j is written in the following table.

i/j 1 2 3 4 Pi*↓
1 0.1625 0.1375 0.175 0.125 0.6
-1 0.075 0.0625 0.05 0.1125 0.3
0 0.0125 0.05 0.025 0.0125 0.1
P*j→ 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1

(i) P (A consumer prefers brand A soap) =P1* =240/400= 0.60.

(ii) P (A consumer has no opinion about brand A soap) =P 2* =120/400 =0.30.
(iii) P (A consumer prefers brand A soap and from Chennai) = P 13/P1* = 0.175/0.6 = 0.291667.
(iv) P (A consumer prefers brand A soap given that he is from Bangalore) = P14/P*4 = 0.125/0.25 =0.50
(v) P (A consumer is from Calcutta given that he has no opinion) = P01/P*1 =0.0125/0.25 = 0.05.
(vi) P (A consumer is from Delhi given that he prefers brand A soap) == P12/P*2 = 0.1375/0.25 = 0.55.
10. The personnel department of a company has records which show the following analysis of its 300
engineers:
AGE Bachelor’s Master’s Total
(years) Degree Degree
Under 30 90 40 130
30-40 50 30 80
Over 40 40 50 90
Total 180 120 300
If one engineer is selected at random from the company, find the probability that
(i) he has only a bachelor’s degree
(ii) he has only a master’s degree
(iii) he has a master’s degree given that he is over 40.
(iv) he is under 30 given that he has only a bachelor’s degree.

Sol.: (i) P (The engineer has a Batchelor’s degree) = ∑3𝑖=1 𝑛𝑖1 /N =180/300 =0.60
(ii) P (The engineer has a Master’s degree) = ∑3𝑖=1 𝑛𝑖2 /N=120/300 =0.40
(iii) P (The engineer has a Master’s degree; given that he is over 40) = n32/ (n31+ n32) = 50/90 =0.555.
(iv) P (The engineer is under 30 given that he has only a bachelor’s degree) = n11/ (n11+n12+ n13) =90/180 =0.50.

Aliter: Taking age in three categories i =1, 2, 3 for ages (X years) under 30, 30-40, over 40 respectively; and
degree in two categories viz. j = 1 and 2 for (Y degrees) as Bachelor and Master degree holders respectively, the
following table for joint probability, and marginal probabilities of X and Y can be obtained
Xi/Yj 1 2 P(X=i)=Pi*↓
1 0.300 0.133 0.433
2 0.167 0.100 0.267
3 0.133 0.167 0.300
P(Y=i) =P*j→ 0.6 0.4 1
(i) P (The engineer has a Batchelor’s degree) = P*1=∑3𝑖=1 𝑝𝑖1= 0.6
(ii) P (The engineer has a Master’s degree) = P*2=∑3𝑖=1 𝑝𝑖2 = 0.4
(iii) P (The engineer has a Master’s degree; given that he is over 40)
=p32/P3* =0.167/0.300=0.555 [=P (X=3, Y=2)/P(Y=2)]
(iv) P (The engineer is under 30 given that he has only a bachelor’s degree)
= p11/P*1 = 0.3/0.6 =0.50. [=P (X=1, Y=1)/P(Y=1)].
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