Global Energy - The Next Decade and Beyond*

By
Arthur R. Green1
Search and Discovery Article #70013 (2005)
Posted February 3, 2005
 
*2004-05 AAPG Distinguished Lecture
Funded by the AAPG Foundation through the J. Ben Carsey Endowment

1
Chief Geoscientist, ExxonMobil Exploration Company, Houston, TX, Retired; current address: Gig Harbor, WA (Argreen3@aol.com).

  Conclusions
uConclusions
uFactors driving global Moving into the Next Phase of World Energy
energy
  uFigure 1
uDiscontinuities in
Modern civilization, a growing population and globalization will become increasingly more dependent on access to
energy large volumes of oil, gas, coal, industrial materials and water at reasonable costs. 
  uFigures 2-10
  uEight phases of Oil and gas supplies ~65% of the world’s energy (80 mb/d and 220 bcf/d gas; by the end of the decade it will be 90
petroleum industry
  uRoots of petroleum mb/d and 280 bcf/d of gas).  Renewable energy, excluding hydroelectric and nuclear, represent about 2% of
industry production worldwide.
uPost World War II
  uFigures 11-16
uPost Embargo: 1973 -
The geography and geopolitical setting of both production and consumption of oil and gas and petroleum based
1980 products is evolving toward fundamental change.   
  uFigures 17-22
uRecent: 1995 - 2001 The peaking of conventional oil and gas production is sure to happen, and while the timing is uncertain, there are signs
  uFigures 23-27
  uThe "New Economy" of change on the horizon.  Enhanced oil recovery efforts and developing heavy oil and tar deposits will stretch supply. 
  uCorporate
consolidation Increased gas production will become more important and the required transport and facilities infrastructure will
  uScience &
technology
require huge up front investment. 
    uFigures 28-44
  uSedimentary basin
The modern energy industry has experienced many discontinuities and has evolved to meet the challenges.  The next
systems stage of the energy business will be its greatest challenge as corporations try to meet the never ending demand for new
    uFigures 45-47
  uFrom science to sources of oil and gas as old fields are depleted. 
business ventures
    uFigures 48-53
  uKnowledge These changes in the global energy balance have the potential for  geopolitical (Nations) environmental, economic and
    uFigures 54-57
uThe Future to 2025 security disruptions worldwide. 
  uFigures 58-61
  uWorld realities Recognizing and facing energy realities, learning from history and developing an integrated plan is critical for an
  uWorld’s oil & gas industry that requires lead times of 10-15 years. Such a plan must include international relations - trade, global,
endowment
  uEnergy consumption economics, massive up front investment, innovative science and applied technology (Industry - Academic -
    uOil
      uFigures 62-72
Government).   
    uEra of gas
      uFigures 73-78 I am optimistic about our energy future and the leadership that will be furnished by science and creative technology in
  uUnconventional a world without walls.  The plans and operations must be conducted within the context of the environment of our
resources
  u"Beyond Petroleum" beautiful planet and its wealth of creatures large and small.
    uFigures 79-90
  uAn energy scenario  
    uFigure 91
  uEnergy & our Factors Driving Global Energy
environment
    uFigure 92 (Figure 1)
uEnergy, nations &
mankind’s future Energy Dynamics, Opportunities, and Challenges
  uFigures 93-96
uRealities & opinions
of a geoscientist
Speed, Volatility, Performance, Ethics, Networking, Wisdom
uFigure 97
uReferences
 
  Figure 1. Factors driving global energy.
   
 
   
  Global Geopolitical and Economic Environment
              Representative Governments
 
  Global Economy and Relations
  Trade - Regulations - Blocks
  Security - War - Terrorism
 
  Energy Consumption and World Banking and Investment
  Business Operations
uConclusions
uFactors driving global
 energy
  uFigure 1 Energy Discovery and Production
uDiscontinuities in
energy Trade - Transport
  uFigures 2-10
  uEight phases of Refining to Products
petroleum industry
  uRoots of petroleum
industry
Job Creation
uPost World War II
  uFigures 11-16
Gross Domestic Product - GDP
uPost Embargo: 1973 -
1980 Company Vitality - Research and Investment
  uFigures 17-22
uRecent: 1995 - 2001 Science and Technology
  uFigures 23-27
  uThe "New Economy" Knowledge
  uCorporate
consolidation Innovation - Creativity
  uScience &
technology Information Systems - digital
    uFigures 28-44
  uSedimentary basin People - Human Technology
systems
    uFigures 45-47 Education - Skills
  uFrom science to
business ventures
    uFigures 48-53
Population Demographics
  uKnowledge
    uFigures 54-57
Prosperity vs. Poverty
uThe Future to 2025
  uFigures 58-61 Emotional Maturity
  uWorld realities
  uWorld’s oil & gas World Peace and a Sustainable Environment
endowment
  uEnergy consumption Discontinuities in Energy: Past, Present, and Future—
    uOil
      uFigures 62-72 An Historical Perspective of Dealing with Change
    uEra of gas
      uFigures 73-78 Figures 2-10 
  uUnconventional
resources
  u"Beyond Petroleum" Figure 2. Petroleum industry time line, showing the eight phases of the petroleum industry.
    uFigures 79-90
  uAn energy scenario
    uFigure 91
  uEnergy & our
environment
    uFigure 92
uEnergy, nations &
mankind’s future
  uFigures 93-96
uRealities & opinions
of a geoscientist Figure 3. Early references to petroleum (from Bilkadi, 1995).
uFigure 97
uReferences
 
 
  Figure 4. Oil Creek - Pennsylvania, 1865. George Bissell, father of the oil industry, was a New York
  lawyer, who arranged for the initial financing to explore the Oil Creek area for oil, from which a high
  quality illuminant could be distilled.
  Figure 5. Old Baku: Bibi-Heybat oil fields in the South of Baku, circa 1910s (picture courtesy of the State
  Archives of Azerbaijan Republic - Photo and Cinema Department).
 
  Figure 6. Global Exploration: Field parties, Brunton compass, as a significant mapping tool, and 1924
  geologic map of Northern Peru (ExxonMobil archives).
 
 
  Figure 7. Montage of geologists conducting field work, well-site workers, and log analyst.
 
uConclusions
uFactors driving global
energy
  uFigure 1 Figure 8. Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela, with facilities in the early part of its production history.
uDiscontinuities in
energy
  uFigures 2-10
  uEight phases of
petroleum industry
  uRoots of petroleum
industry
Figure 9. Mud volcano, Azerbaijan, where commercial production was established around 1870 and where
uPost World War II Baku was the largest oil field in the world around the turn of the 20th century.
  uFigures 11-16
uPost Embargo: 1973 -
1980
  uFigures 17-22 Figure 10. Normandy beach, D-Day, 1944, with tremendous requirements for petroleum products.
uRecent: 1995 - 2001
  uFigures 23-27  
  uThe "New Economy"
  uCorporate
consolidation
  uScience &
technology
  Return to top.
    uFigures 28-44
  uSedimentary basin
 
 systems
    uFigures 45-47 The Eight Phases of the Petroleum Industry (Figure 2)
  uFrom science to
business ventures
    uFigures 48-53
Roots of the Petroleum Industry (Figures 3, 4, 5, and 6) 
  uKnowledge
    uFigures 54-57
Years of Discovery (Figures 7, 8, 9, and 10)
uThe Future to 2025
  uFigures 58-61  
  uWorld realities
  uWorld’s oil & gas Post World War II
endowment
  uEnergy consumption (Figures 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16)
    uOil
      uFigures 62-72  
    uEra of gas
      uFigures 73-78 Figures 11-16
  uUnconventional
resources  
  u"Beyond Petroleum"
    uFigures 79-90
  uAn energy scenario Figure 11. Factors driving post World War II global energy.
    uFigure 91
  uEnergy & our
environment
    uFigure 92
uEnergy, nations &
mankind’s future Figure 12.  Oil for a world at peace (from Oil for Victory, 1946).
  uFigures 93-96
uRealities & opinions
of a geoscientist
uFigure 97
Figure 13. Theodore Link, legendary petroleum geologist, also AAPG President 1955-56, demonstrating the application in the field of basic tools.
uReferences
 
 
 
  Figure 14. Creole Field, Coast of Louisiana (from Wasson, 1948).
 
 
  Figure 15. The marine challenge, as illustrated by the environmental conditions encountered during
  offshore exploration and production.
 
 
 
  Figure 16. Plot of oil price, oil demand and discovered volumes, with and gas demand and discovered
  volumes (in billions of oil-equivalent barrels / US dollars--relative numbers, from 1900 to 2020).
 
uConclusions
uFactors driving global  
energy
  uFigure 1  
uDiscontinuities in
energy Global Geopolitical & Economic Environment
  uFigures 2-10
  uEight phases of      Surge in Demand
petroleum industry
  uRoots of petroleum      US becomes Net Importer
industry
uPost World War II      Winds of Nationalization
  uFigures 11-16
uPost Embargo: 1973 -
1980
     Geopolitical Restructuring
  uFigures 17-22
uRecent: 1995 - 2001
     State of Israel Formed and Colonies Fall
  uFigures 23-27
  uThe "New Economy"      Marshall Plan
  uCorporate
consolidation      Cold War 1947 - Korean War 1950 - 1953
  uScience &
technology      Stock Market (DOW) Reaches 500 Milestone in 1956
    uFigures 28-44
  uSedimentary basin      Population Inflection
systems
    uFigures 45-47 Business Operations
  uFrom science to
business ventures      Aggressive Global Search and Discovery
    uFigures 48-53
  uKnowledge
    uFigures 54-57
     On-site Geologic and Engineering Investigations
uThe Future to 2025
  uFigures 58-61
     Reestablishing Global Reach Limited to "The Western World"
  uWorld realities
  uWorld’s oil & gas      Increasing Flow of Oil & Gas and Refined Products
endowment
  uEnergy consumption      ARAMCO Restructured
    uOil
      uFigures 62-72      Companies Reorganized
    uEra of gas
      uFigures 73-78 Science - Technology - Knowledge
  uUnconventional
resources (Data - Information - Knowledge - Wisdom)
  u"Beyond Petroleum"
    uFigures 79-90      Revolutionary Advancements from War Years - High Octane Fuel, Butyl. Rubber, Lubricants
  uAn energy scenario
    uFigure 91
  uEnergy & our      Direct and Indirect Impact of Technology
environment
    uFigure 92      Technical Leadership in Academia, Government and Industry
uEnergy, nations &
mankind’s future      Corporate Research Centers - Upstream and Downstream Enlarged
  uFigures 93-96
uRealities & opinions
of a geoscientist
     1st Offshore Drilling
uFigure 97
uReferences
     Scouting - Global Information
   
  Human Technology
 
       "Experienced" Staff
       Inventive "can do" Attitude
       Global Maturity
 
       Travel and Communication Advances
       Training - Schools and Mentoring
  Post Embargo / 1973 - 1980
 
  (Figures 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, and 22)
  Figure 17. Factors driving global energy in post embargo (1973-1980).
   
uConclusions
uFactors driving global
energy
  uFigure 1 Figure 18. The self-organizing earth machine (Source: Harvard).
uDiscontinuities in
energy  
  uFigures 2-10
  uEight phases of
petroleum industry Figure 19. Dynamics of planet earth (after Kellogg, 1999; Morse, 2001).
  uRoots of petroleum
industry
uPost World War II
  uFigures 11-16
uPost Embargo: 1973 -
1980
  uFigures 17-22
uRecent: 1995 - 2001
  uFigures 23-27
  uThe "New Economy"
  uCorporate Figure 20. Mediterranean earth tomography (from Bijwaard, Spakman, and Engdahl, 1998).
consolidation
  uScience &  
technology
    uFigures 28-44
  uSedimentary basin
systems
    uFigures 45-47 Figure 21. Eustatic Cycle Chart #1—Phanerozoic (ExxonMobil Research)
  uFrom science to
business ventures
    uFigures 48-53
  uKnowledge
    uFigures 54-57
uThe Future to 2025
  uFigures 58-61
  uWorld realities
  uWorld’s oil & gas
endowment
  uEnergy consumption
Figure 22. Sequence Stratigraphy A. In depth. B. In time. LSF=Lowstand fan, LSW=Lowstand wedge,
    uOil HS=Highstand systems tract, TR=Transgressive systems tract, MW / SMW=Shelf margin wedge,
      uFigures 62-72
    uEra of gas CS=Condensed section. (P. R. Vail / Exxon Research Production Company.) (After Vail, 1987.)
      uFigures 73-78
  uUnconventional
resources
  u"Beyond Petroleum" Return to top.
    uFigures 79-90
  uAn energy scenario  
    uFigure 91
  uEnergy & our Global Geopolitical and Economic Environment
environment
    uFigure 92      Nationalizations - Embargos (1973)
uEnergy, nations &
mankind’s future      OPEC becomes a Major Force
  uFigures 93-96
uRealities & opinions      Intense Cold War - Vietnam War Ends 1975
of a geoscientist
uFigure 97
uReferences
     Oil Prices Increased 4x
       Gasoline Shortages
       Inflation Increased Sharply
 
       Iran Hostage Crisis (1974)
       Nixon Resigns (1974)
       Stock Market Plunges (1974/75) Stagflation - GDP Dropped
 
  Business Operations
 
       Major Discoveries and Production come on line
       New Global Offices Established by Industry
       Oil & Gas Operations in USSR Surge
 
       S.E. Asian Businesses Rise
uConclusions
uFactors driving global
     Nationalization of oil properties
energy
  uFigure 1
Science - Technology - Knowledge
uDiscontinuities in
energy      Dynamic Earth Model - Applied (Regional) Projects
  uFigures 2-10
  uEight phases of      Research Centers merged (Carter- Humble)
petroleum industry
  uRoots of petroleum      Seismic Reflection, Stratigraphy and Attributes, 3-D
industry
uPost World War II      Seismic Data Processing
  uFigures 11-16
uPost Embargo: 1973 -      Sequence Stratigraphy
1980
  uFigures 17-22      Micro - Paleo Develops Rapidly
uRecent: 1995 - 2001
  uFigures 23-27
  uThe "New Economy"
     Gravity and Magnetics
  uCorporate
consolidation
     Satellite Imagery
  uScience &
technology      Drilling begins move to Deep Water
    uFigures 28-44
  uSedimentary basin      Refining Advancements
systems
    uFigures 45-47      Computers - Micro Chips
  uFrom science to
business ventures Human Technology
    uFigures 48-53
  uKnowledge      Staff Increases in Size and Experience
    uFigures 54-57
uThe Future to 2025      Extensive School System Develops at Research Lab.
  uFigures 58-61
  uWorld realities      Travel and Communication Surge
  uWorld’s oil & gas
endowment
  uEnergy consumption
     Integrated Regional Projects
    uOil
      uFigures 62-72
 
    uEra of gas
      uFigures 73-78 Six Major Factors in Energy Planning
  uUnconventional
resources Only One Energy Event was Arguably a Real Crises
  u"Beyond Petroleum"
    uFigures 79-90
  uAn energy scenario A Turning Point: THE 1973 OIL EMBARGO.
    uFigure 91
  uEnergy & our  
environment
    uFigure 92 Some of What happened in the U.S. (from Robert L. Hirsch, Senior Energy Program Advisor, SAIC -- February,
uEnergy, nations &
mankind’s future
2004) (rlhirsch@comcast.net).
  uFigures 93-96
uRealities & opinions
        Oil prices increased ~ 4.5 x (Saudi crude)
of a geoscientist
uFigure 97
        Gasoline rationed (even / odd days)
uReferences
        Gasoline lines and spot shortages
 
          GDP dropped two years in a row (recession)
          Interest rates spiked dramatically upward
          Inflation increased sharply
 
There was a huge wealth transfer to OPEC
 
   
  U.S. Actions Resulting From the 1973 Oil Embargo (from Robert L. Hirsch, Senior Energy Program Advisor, SAIC
  -- February, 2004) (rlhirsch@comcast.net)
          Price controls enacted
 
          CAFÉ implemented
          Higher efficiency mandated in a variety of sectors
 
uConclusions         National speed limit (55 mpg) enacted
uFactors driving global
energy         Domestic oil & gas exploration & production spiked upward
  uFigure 1
uDiscontinuities in         Federal energy R & D dramatically increased
energy
  uFigures 2-10
  uEight phases of
        A major effort in synthetic fuels initiated
petroleum industry
  uRoots of petroleum         Windfall profit taxes levied
industry
uPost World War II
  uFigures 11-16         U.S. government reorganized to form ERDA, FEA & FERC
uPost Embargo: 1973 -
1980
  uFigures 17-22
        IEA formed
uRecent: 1995 - 2001
  uFigures 23-27
        Strategic Petroleum Reserve established  
  uThe "New Economy"
  uCorporate         Formulation of a coherent national energy policy initiated
consolidation
  uScience &         Foreign policy adjusted to new realities
technology
    uFigures 28-44  
  uSedimentary basin
systems
    uFigures 45-47
Recent: 1995-2001 (Figure 23)
  uFrom science to
business ventures Figures 23-27
    uFigures 48-53
  uKnowledge
    uFigures 54-57
Figure 23. Factors driving global energy, 1995-2001.
uThe Future to 2025  
  uFigures 58-61
  uWorld realities
  uWorld’s oil & gas
endowment Figure 24. From irrational exuberance to infectious greed, with a plot of Dow Jones Industrial Average
  uEnergy consumption and S&P 500-stock Index, along with quotations from two Alan Greenspan speeches (The Wall Street
    uOil
      uFigures 62-72 Journal, July, 2002; Source: Thompson Datastream for chart data).
    uEra of gas
      uFigures 73-78
  uUnconventional Figure 25. Merger acquisitions: deals closed / pending 1/1/98 to 2001, with estimated
resources
  u"Beyond Petroleum" values.
    uFigures 79-90
  uAn energy scenario
    uFigure 91
  uEnergy & our
environment
    uFigure 92
uEnergy, nations & Figure 26. Top oil companies’ workforces (as of September, 2001). Table showing increased effectiveness
mankind’s future
  uFigures 93-96
and productivity.
uRealities & opinions
of a geoscientist
 
uFigure 97
uReferences Figure 27. US Petroleum Engineering Workforce (Source: PetroStrategies, Inc.) (from Poruban, 2001).
 
 
 Return to top.
 
   
 
   
  Global Geopolitical & Economic Environment
       Major Mergers - Restructuring
 
       Stock Market Surges (1995) and Falls (2001)
       Globalization/Post cold war economy develops
       Europe United - EU Currency
 
       NGOs - Environment and Globalization
uConclusions
uFactors driving global
     Balkans - Bombing (1999)
energy
  uFigure 1
     Oklahoma City Bombing 1995
uDiscontinuities in
energy      World Trade Center and Pentagon Struck (2001)
  uFigures 2-10
  uEight phases of      Sanctions on Iran, Iraq, Libya
petroleum industry
  uRoots of petroleum Business Operations
industry
uPost World War II      Major Corporations Develop from Mergers
  uFigures 11-16
uPost Embargo: 1973 -      Offshore West Africa Blooms
1980
  uFigures 17-22      Caspian Sea North and South
uRecent: 1995 - 2001
  uFigures 23-27      Niger Delta  and Equatorial Guinea
  uThe "New Economy"
  uCorporate
consolidation
     Indonesia and Sakhalin
  uScience &
technology
     Russian Industry Advances
    uFigures 28-44
  uSedimentary basin      Middle East Production Evolves /
systems
    uFigures 45-47      Tensions rise
  uFrom science to
business ventures Science - Technology - Knowledge
    uFigures 48-53
  uKnowledge      Micro Chips and PCs Advance - Efficiency Surge
    uFigures 54-57
uThe Future to 2025      3-D Seismic and Attribute Analysis
  uFigures 58-61
  uWorld realities
  uWorld’s oil & gas      Visualization
endowment
  uEnergy consumption      Communications - Cell Phones and Broad Band
    uOil
      uFigures 62-72      Satellites - GPS, ICONOS, Interferometry, Geostat
    uEra of gas
      uFigures 73-78
  uUnconventional
     Smart Materials
resources
  u"Beyond Petroleum"
     Robotics
    uFigures 79-90
  uAn energy scenario      Nano Technology Micro Machines
    uFigure 91
  uEnergy & our      Human Genome Mapped
environment
    uFigure 92      Medical Advances - Genes and Stem Cells
uEnergy, nations &
mankind’s future      Cloning
  uFigures 93-96
uRealities & opinions      Fuel Cells - Photo Voltaics and Combination Cars Advance
of a geoscientist
uFigure 97      Climate Science Advances
uReferences
  Human Technology
       Integrated Geoscience Emerges
 
     Team Projects
 
       Staff Matures
       Hiring and Training Continue
 
 
 
  The "New Economy" (Figure 24) 
   "How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to
  unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?"—Alan Greenspan, December 5,
  1995 speech.
 
  "Why did corporate governance check and balances that served us reasonably well in the past break down? . . An
uConclusions infectious greed seemed to grip much of our business community. . ."—Alan Greenspan, July16, 2002 speech.
uFactors driving global
energy  
  uFigure 1
uDiscontinuities in
 energy
  uFigures 2-10 Corporate Consolidation (Figures 25, 26, and 27)
  uEight phases of
petroleum industry
  uRoots of petroleum
 
industry
uPost World War II
Science and Technology
  uFigures 11-16
uPost Embargo: 1973 - (Figures 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, and 44)
1980
  uFigures 17-22  
uRecent: 1995 - 2001
  uFigures 23-27 Figures 28-44
  uThe "New Economy"
  uCorporate
consolidation Figure 28. Montage of features illustrative of new technologies on background of an image of much of
  uScience &
technology
the Eastern Hemisphere.
    uFigures 28-44
  uSedimentary basin
systems
    uFigures 45-47 Figure 29. World gravity map (David Sandwell, SCRIPPS Institute; ExxonMobil Exploration Company,
  uFrom science to
business ventures 2000).
    uFigures 48-53
  uKnowledge Figure 30. The gravity domain: westernmost Europe and North Atlantic.
    uFigures 54-57
uThe Future to 2025
  uFigures 58-61  
  uWorld realities
  uWorld’s oil & gas
endowment
  uEnergy consumption
    uOil Figure 31. GPS - Micro-plate escape motion: Southeastern Europe Middle East, and North Africa (R.E.
      uFigures 62-72
    uEra of gas
Reilinger, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of
      uFigures 73-78 Technology, Cambridge Massachusetts).
  uUnconventional
resources
  u"Beyond Petroleum"
    uFigures 79-90 Figure 32. Differential SAR Interferometry: Hector Mine earthquake, October 16, 1999 (NASA / JPL).
  uAn energy scenario
    uFigure 91
With radar data alone, at least three data sets are required for surface change detection. With continuous
  uEnergy & our data collection as planned for LightSAR, time series of surface change can be monitored.
environment
    uFigure 92
uEnergy, nations &
mankind’s future
  uFigures 93-96
uRealities & opinions
of a geoscientist
uFigure 97
uReferences
  Figure 33. Image of part of Washington, D.C., showing Washington Monument in lower left (Copyright
  by  Space Imaging, L.P. & www.davekroger.com).
   
 
 
  Figure 34. Walking in the subsurface world.
   
 
  Figure 35. 3-D seismic reflection imagery (courtesy of Veritas).
   
 
 
  Figure 36. Examples of seismic attribute technology.
   
uConclusions
uFactors driving global
energy Figure 37. Deep water drilling.
  uFigure 1
uDiscontinuities in  
energy
  uFigures 2-10
  uEight phases of
petroleum industry
  uRoots of petroleum
Figure 38. Inside view of a deep water drilling rig.
industry  
uPost World War II
  uFigures 11-16
uPost Embargo: 1973 -
1980
Figure 39. Drilling ship, as part of high arctic exploration.
  uFigures 17-22  
uRecent: 1995 - 2001
  uFigures 23-27
  uThe "New Economy"
  uCorporate
consolidation Figure 40. Borehole tool for tests in the subsurface high pressure, high temperature "atmosphere."
  uScience &
technology
 
    uFigures 28-44
  uSedimentary basin
systems
    uFigures 45-47
  uFrom science to
 business ventures
    uFigures 48-53 Figure 41. Geosteering: a way to steer the well geologically.
  uKnowledge
    uFigures 54-57  
uThe Future to 2025
  uFigures 58-61
  uWorld realities Figure 42. Interactive digital data systems: the global Schlumberger Omnes network (Euan Baird,
  uWorld’s oil & gas
endowment
Chairman and CEO Schlumberger, World Energy, 1999).
  uEnergy consumption  
    uOil
      uFigures 62-72
    uEra of gas
      uFigures 73-78
Figure 43. Biomarkers: Environmental indicators and key to understanding source rocks, the core of the
  uUnconventional petroleum system.
resources
  u"Beyond Petroleum"  
    uFigures 79-90
  uAn energy scenario
    uFigure 91
Figure 44. Exploration process: The HC systems model--diagrammatic cross-section illustrating the
  uEnergy & our stages from source, maturation, migration, to entrapment.
environment
    uFigure 92  
uEnergy, nations &
mankind’s future
  uFigures 93-96  Return to top.
uRealities & opinions
of a geoscientist  
uFigure 97
uReferences Sedimentary Basin Systems: Models in Our Minds
 
(Figures 45, 46, and 47)
 
   
  Figures 45-47
 
  Figure 45. Systems within systems: diagrammatic cross-section.
   
 
 
  Figure 46. Diagrammatic cross-section illustrating the roles of sources, primary - 2nd, 3rd, 4th migration,
  trap, seal (T&B), maturation, and preservation, with salt in the petroleum system.
 
 
  Figure 47. Detection of surface-expressed fault and seepage.
uConclusions
uFactors driving global
energy
  uFigure 1
uDiscontinuities in
energy The mental model of sedimentary basins envisioned here is that basins are complex, non-linear, self-organizing,
  uFigures 2-10
  uEight phases of dynamic natural systems. They are thrown in and out of thermodynamic and pressure equilibrium and experience both
petroleum industry
  uRoots of petroleum
positive and negative feedback as they attempt to maintain equilibrium throughout their unique evolution.
industry
uPost World War II The fluids (oil-gas-water) are the most unstable and mobile parameters of sedimentary basin systems and are the major
  uFigures 11-16 agents in self organization on the maintenance of equilibrium.
uPost Embargo: 1973 -
1980
  uFigures 17-22
Petroleum exploration is the science and art of envisioning multiphase fluid and rock interactions envisioned through
uRecent: 1995 - 2001 time in a high pressure and temperature environment of the subsurface atmosphere.
  uFigures 23-27
  uThe "New Economy"  
  uCorporate
consolidation           A Forgiving Influence: Salt in the Petroleum System (open-closed-chaos systems) (Figures 45 and 46)
  uScience &
technology           Salt and Shale Diapirs: Catalytic - Self Organizing Systems
    uFigures 28-44
  uSedimentary basin Non-linear, Self-organizing Dynamic Systems Creates a "Subsurface Atmosphere."
systems
    uFigures 45-47  Redistributes heat (conductive halite) and pressure
  uFrom science to
business ventures  Fluids (gas-oil-water) move to equilibrate the system.
    uFigures 48-53
  uKnowledge
    uFigures 54-57
 Mobile sediments move with fluids.
uThe Future to 2025
  uFigures 58-61  Alters basin chemistry NaCl) - Density flows
  uWorld realities
  uWorld’s oil & gas Molds the Shape of the Ocean Bottom
endowment
  uEnergy consumption  Withdrawal and fault subsidence
    uOil
      uFigures 62-72  Forms itinerate basins - collects sands
    uEra of gas
      uFigures 73-78
  uUnconventional
Creates Traps
resources
  u"Beyond Petroleum"  Forms structures - anticline and down-to-basin faults
    uFigures 79-90
  uAn energy scenario  Creates unconformities
    uFigure 91
  uEnergy & our  Turtles
environment
    uFigure 92
uEnergy, nations & Creates Migration Pathways
mankind’s future
  uFigures 93-96  Moves perpendicular to sedimentary layers
uRealities & opinions
of a geoscientist
uFigure 97
 Breaks seals
uReferences
 Shale sheath conduits
 
   Focus fluid flow
  A Clue to Basin Dynamics and Compaction History
 
 
 
            Direct and Indirect Oil and Gas Detection (Figure 47)
    
 
From Science to Business Ventures - Managing the Unknowable
 
  (Figures 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, and 53)
   
 
         Figures 48-53
 
  Figure 48. Integrated basin analysis, resource assessment, and business operations: Diagram illustrating
uConclusions
uFactors driving global the various disciplines/subjects that provide the technology, its tools, and scientific skills required to
energy
  uFigure 1
analyze basins, their hydrocarbon systems, resulting in numerical assessment so that wise action may be
uDiscontinuities in taken.
energy
  uFigures 2-10
  uEight phases of Figure 49. Parts of a petroleum system (enlargement of that part of Figure 48), listing the requisites.
petroleum industry
  uRoots of petroleum
industry
uPost World War II
  uFigures 11-16
uPost Embargo: 1973 -
1980 Figure 50. Hydrocarbon parameters of sedimentary basins and decisions under uncertainty - managing the
  uFigures 17-22
uRecent: 1995 - 2001
unknowable: Example: Offshore Brazil.
  uFigures 23-27
  uThe "New Economy"
  uCorporate
consolidation
  uScience &
technology Figure 51. Merging science - business ventures - human technology (enlargement of that part of Figure 48)
    uFigures 28-44
  uSedimentary basin that illustrates the factors utilized in determining risk vs. reward (after N.G. De’Ath, 1997).
systems
    uFigures 45-47
  uFrom science to
business ventures
    uFigures 48-53 Figure 52. Enlargement of the upper half of the diagram in Figure 51 -- Business Maturity and Project
  uKnowledge
    uFigures 54-57 Economics (after N.G. De’Ath, 1997).
uThe Future to 2025
  uFigures 58-61
  uWorld realities Figure 53. Enlargement of lower half of the diagram in Figure 51 -- Production Engineering and
  uWorld’s oil & gas
endowment
Operational Environment (after N.G. De’Ath, 1997).
  uEnergy consumption
    uOil
      uFigures 62-72
 Return to top.
    uEra of gas
      uFigures 73-78
 
  uUnconventional
resources
  Knowledge - Forever a Student (Figure 54)
  u"Beyond Petroleum"
    uFigures 79-90
Figure 54. Group of geoscientists at AAPG International Conference, Istanbul, Turkey, 2003 (left). Some
  uAn energy scenario of those geoscientists studying data presented at the conference (right).
    uFigure 91
  uEnergy & our  
environment
    uFigure 92 The power of knowledge - the sustainable resource - geology of Asia
uEnergy, nations &
mankind’s future
  uFigures 93-96
Learning in Istanbul
uRealities & opinions
of a geoscientist  In the non-linear, free energy market environment of 2004 and beyond, science and technology must be the
uFigure 97 foundation of decision-making.
uReferences
   Learning is at the heart of our ability to adapt to changing energy environments.
   We must all be teachers, students, and mentors at the same time in a world without walls.
 
   
  People (Figures 55 and 56)
  Figure 55. The human factor.
 
   
   
  Figure 56. Win/win human relations.
 
   
   
 
uConclusions
uFactors driving global
  Success (Figure 57)
energy
  uFigure 1
uDiscontinuities in Figure 57. Marimba-1 (Angola) - Ocean Valent 1998 (ExxonMobil).
energy
  uFigures 2-10  
  uEight phases of
petroleum industry The Future to 2025 (Figure 58)
  uRoots of petroleum
industry  Figures 58-61
uPost World War II
  uFigures 11-16
uPost Embargo: 1973 - Figure 58.  Factors driving global energy, to 2025.
1980
  uFigures 17-22
uRecent: 1995 - 2001
  uFigures 23-27
  uThe "New Economy"
  uCorporate
Figure 59. World population and energy consumption (Thomas S. Ahlbrandt, USGS).
consolidation
  uScience &
technology
    uFigures 28-44
  uSedimentary basin
Figure 60. World energy consumption, GDP, 1970-2025. World energy consumption (upper left)(Sources:
systems History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2003A. Projections: EIA, 2003B). B. World gross
    uFigures 45-47
  uFrom science to domestic product by selected countries and regions (32 - 67 trillion dollars, from 2001 to 2025). (Sources:
business ventures Global Insight, Inc., World Economic Outlook, Vol. 1, Lexington, MA, Third Quarter 2003; EIA, 2003B;
    uFigures 48-53
  uKnowledge EIA, 2003C). (US Department of Energy, 2003; www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html).
    uFigures 54-57
uThe Future to 2025
  uFigures 58-61 Figure 61. Global energy market mix: For 2000 and 2030 (left). Trends in world primary energy demand
  uWorld realities (right). (Source: International Energy Agency, 2002) (IPIECA, 2004).
  uWorld’s oil & gas
endowment
  uEnergy consumption
    uOil
      uFigures 62-72
Global Political and Economic Environment
    uEra of gas
      uFigures 73-78
            Increasing degree of volatility and discontinuities - Afghanistan and Iraq
  uUnconventional
resources
  u"Beyond Petroleum"
    uFigures 79-90             Increasing demand for crude, natural gas, and petroleum products
  uAn energy scenario
    uFigure 91             The world of declining petroleum resources
  uEnergy & our
environment             Intense competition for quality properties
    uFigure 92
uEnergy, nations &
mankind’s future
            Pressure on earnings growth - keeping costs - volumes up
  uFigures 93-96
uRealities & opinions
            Geopolitical awareness -NGOs environmental, and "Evil Doers"
of a geoscientist
uFigure 97             Corporate reputation -performance
uReferences
            Public relations and safety
 
              Embrace change -MAKE THE FUTURE
  Business Operations
 
            Performance and profitability
 
              World basins continue to mature
              Shifting center of growth for producing properties
 
            Natural gas becomes a major player in the energy mix (LNG / GTL)
 
              Increasingly complex high risk geologic opportunities
              Increased development of static petroleum resources
 
            Business and scientific relationships
 
              Partner of choice
uConclusions
uFactors driving global             High operational performance
energy
  uFigure 1             Sound safety and environmental performance
uDiscontinuities in
energy             Scientific and technical leadership
  uFigures 2-10
  uEight phases of             Ethics and global maturity
petroleum industry
  uRoots of petroleum             Doing the right thing right
industry
uPost World War II Science - Technology - Knowledge
  uFigures 11-16
uPost Embargo: 1973 -
1980
            Genetic basin analysis
  uFigures 17-22
uRecent: 1995 - 2001             Complexity science - fundamental knowledge - fractals /patterns
  uFigures 23-27
  uThe "New Economy"             Advanced subsurface fluid models - (Atmosphere) at all scales
  uCorporate
consolidation             Robust research - upstream and downstream
  uScience &
technology
    uFigures 28-44
            Interferometry
  uSedimentary basin
systems
            Earth tomography
    uFigures 45-47
  uFrom science to             Non-seismic geophysics
business ventures
    uFigures 48-53             Nano-Technology - Micro Machines
  uKnowledge
    uFigures 54-57             Military research - satellite gravity - smart materials
uThe Future to 2025
  uFigures 58-61             Climate science
  uWorld realities
  uWorld’s oil & gas             Advanced data and information systems
endowment
  uEnergy consumption Human Technology
    uOil
      uFigures 62-72             A learning organization
    uEra of gas
      uFigures 73-78
  uUnconventional
            Adaptive self-organizing system - leadership
resources
  u"Beyond Petroleum"
            People network - Multi-cultural and evolving demographics
    uFigures 79-90
  uAn energy scenario             Congruency, integration, and communication
    uFigure 91
  uEnergy & our             Innovation and creativity by all
environment
    uFigure 92  Return to top.
uEnergy, nations &
mankind’s future  
  uFigures 93-96
uRealities & opinions   World realities - Globalization, Advancing Technology, National Security
of a geoscientist
uFigure 97 The confluence of change at the turn of the century has created a dynamic environment of opportunities, discontinuities,
uReferences
  and challenges 
   Changing geopolitical climate - new markets and technologies drive economics.
 
 Globalization creating an inter-connected world - geographies and virtual. Incomplete globalization debated (?).
 
Shifts in employment and production capabilities. Trading blocks developing.
 
   Mergers, buy-outs and consolidation occurring - backing oil and gas, defense, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology
  and high tech companies, antitrust suits common and regulations becoming global.
 
   Volatile military operations worldwide - terrorist organizations evolving, religious unrest and separatist
  movements active. NGOs militant environmentalists and animal rights groups, etc. Nation building in
  Afghanistan and Iraq.
   New technologies tools and scientific advancements (concepts) increasing rapidly - non-linear acceleration.
 
 World population rising rapidly: 1804 - 1.06 billion, 1900 - 1.5 billion, 1960 - 3 billion, 2000 - 6 billion, 2050 -
 
uConclusions ~9.1 (?) billion.
uFactors driving global
energy  Prosperity and active stock markets in some countries - confusion, lawlessness and poverty in others. The "New
  uFigure 1
uDiscontinuities in Economy" replaced by viable "corporate earnings." China and India GDP rising and thirst for energy and base
energy metals increasing.
  uFigures 2-10
  uEight phases of
petroleum industry
 Vast new, global, digital interactive data sets available to all. Instant communications and transactions.
  uRoots of petroleum
industry
 
uPost World War II
  uFigures 11-16 The Sage of the Federal Reserve
uPost Embargo: 1973 -
1980 Comments at the conference on energy Security - Washington, D.C., April 27, 2004 - Wall Street Journal, April 28,
  uFigures 17-22
uRecent: 1995 - 2001
2004 (with quotations from Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve Chairman):
  uFigures 23-27
  uThe "New Economy"
The price of oil and gas contracts for delivery six years in the future indicates:
  uCorporate
consolidation  "The recent surge in oil and gas prices appear to be a long-lasting phenomenon, and could alter the magnitude
  uScience & and manner in which the United States consumes energy."
technology
    uFigures 28-44
  uSedimentary basin
 That the long term path of the US economy will be "significantly affected."
systems
    uFigures 45-47  "A shift in expectations."
  uFrom science to
business ventures  "The US must expand facilities for handling imported liquefied natural gas (LNG)."
    uFigures 48-53
  uKnowledge  "Higher gas prices in the US will prompt some gas-intensive industries such as petrochemicals and fertilizer
    uFigures 54-57
uThe Future to 2025 manufacturers, to move facilities from the US to parts of the world where gas is less expensive.
  uFigures 58-61
  uWorld realities  
  uWorld’s oil & gas
endowment The World’s Oil and Gas Endowment - Peak Oil 
  uEnergy consumption
    uOil Next Big Thing: Peak Oil (from Williams, 2004—by Oil & Gas Journal Executive Editor) 
      uFigures 62-72
    uEra of gas ". . . The last time this editor felt that kind of excite about a story with legs was the new wave of environmentalism
      uFigures 73-78
  uUnconventional sweeping the oil and gas industry that OGJ began tracking in the early 1980s and that exploded anew with the 1989
resources Exxon Valdez tanker spill. 
  u"Beyond Petroleum"
    uFigures 79-90
  uAn energy scenario
"Next Big Thing 
    uFigure 91
  uEnergy & our
"The peak-oil debate is getting more polarized and more rancorous - and especially noteworthy, more politicized.
environment
    uFigure 92  "So, here’s an immodest prediction: The peak-oil debate will be the Next Big Thing. The story with legs. The
uEnergy, nations & overarching them that will resonate throughout the oil and gas industry for decades to come. It will be propelled forward
mankind’s future
  uFigures 93-96 in the public consciousness not only by serious debate within the industry itself but also on the political hustings and
uRealities & opinions
of a geoscientist
antioil forces who can’t seem to pry Americans out of their sport utility vehicles even as war rages in the Middle East
uFigure 97 and Chicken Little lies sacrificed on the Kyoto altar. 
uReferences
  "Iraq and Saudi Arabia will figure largely in that debate. So will Russia and the Caspian. And Orinoco oil and
  Athabasca tar sands. And reserves accounting transparency. 
  "And alternate energy viability. 
 
"That last one once looked like it had legs too, circa 1979-1985. So you’ll see more coverage of alternate energy in OGJ
 
in the years ahead. . . ."
 
   
    Energy Consumption (Figures 59, 60, and 61)
   
 
  Oil (Figures 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, and 72)
   
  Figures 62-72
 
uConclusions Figure 62. EIA - World conventional oil production scenarios. Note: US volumes were added to the USGS
uFactors driving global foreign volumes to obtain world totals. (Source: EIA). (Williams, 2003).
energy
  uFigure 1
uDiscontinuities in
energy
  uFigures 2-10
  uEight phases of
 petroleum industry
  uRoots of petroleum
Figure 63. World demand vs. production (US Department of Energy, 2003;
industry www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html).
uPost World War II
  uFigures 11-16
uPost Embargo: 1973 -
1980
  uFigures 17-22 Figure 64. Trends in finding and developing costs, three-year moving averages, 1979-1981 to 1997-1999
uRecent: 1995 - 2001
  uFigures 23-27 (IEA, EIA, 2001).
  uThe "New Economy"
  uCorporate
consolidation Figure 65. Historical development of the IEA crude oil import price (cif) (IEA, EIA, 2001)
  uScience &
technology
    uFigures 28-44
  uSedimentary basin
systems Figure 66. Total sediment fill. The habitat of petroleum and stratabound minerals (Bernard C. South,
    uFigures 45-47
  uFrom science to 1999).
business ventures
    uFigures 48-53
  uKnowledge
Figure 67. Published estimates of world oil  ultimate recovery (D.L. Greene, Oak Ridge National
    uFigures 54-57 Laboratory, J. L. Hopson, Jia Li, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville; Prepared by the Oak Ridge
uThe Future to 2025
  uFigures 58-61 National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, July 23, 2002).
  uWorld realities
  uWorld’s oil & gas Figure 68. Conventional oil endowment of the world. World petroleum assessment 2000 (Ahlbrandt et al.,
endowment 2001).
  uEnergy consumption
    uOil
      uFigures 62-72
    uEra of gas Figure 69. Proven conventional oil reserves, in billions of barrels, according to continent or region
      uFigures 73-78
  uUnconventional (Fortune, November, 2001).
resources
  u"Beyond Petroleum"
    uFigures 79-90
  uAn energy scenario Figure 70. Production and remaining reserves in largest UK fields (Read, 2002).
    uFigure 91
  uEnergy & our
environment
    uFigure 92
uEnergy, nations & Figure 71. Production and remaining reserves in largest Norwegian fields (Read, 2002).
mankind’s future
  uFigures 93-96
uRealities & opinions
of a geoscientist
uFigure 97
uReferences
 
  Figure 72. World oil production capacity by region and country, reference case, 1990-2025 (80-124
  million barrels oil per day). (Sources: History: EIA, Energy Markets and Contingency Information
  Division. Projections: EIA, 2003B; US Geological Survey, 2000). (US Department of Energy, 2003;
  www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html).
 
 
 Return to top.
 
   
  In Figure 62, Peak Ranges are 46 years (2021 to 2067) or 91 years (2021 to 2112); 900 billion barrels moves peak 10
  years from 2047 to 2047. The table and chart do not include price feedback, political and geographic accessibility,
  geopolitical conditions or infrastructure.
 
 
 
uConclusions Supplying oil and gas demand will require planning, technical skills and major up-front investment and risk (Figure 63).
uFactors driving global
energy
  uFigure 1
 
uDiscontinuities in
energy The Era of Gas (Figures 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, and 78) 
  uFigures 2-10
  uEight phases of Figures 73-78
petroleum industry
  uRoots of petroleum
industry Figure 73. Conventional natural gas endowment of the world. World petroleum assessment 2000.
uPost World War II (Ahlbrandt et al., 2001).
  uFigures 11-16
uPost Embargo: 1973 -
1980
  uFigures 17-22 Figure 74. World natural gas consumption by region, reference case, 1990-2025. (Sources: History: EIA,
uRecent: 1995 - 2001
  uFigures 23-27 2003A.. Projections: EIA, 2003B). (US Department of Energy. 2003;
  uThe "New Economy"
  uCorporate
www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html).
consolidation
  uScience &
technology
    uFigures 28-44
  uSedimentary basin Figure 75. World natural gas consumption, 1970-2025. (Sources: History: EIA, 2003A.. Projections: EIA,
systems 2003B). (US Department of Energy. 2003; www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html).
    uFigures 45-47
  uFrom science to
business ventures
    uFigures 48-53
  uKnowledge
    uFigures 54-57
uThe Future to 2025 Figure 76. Advanced gas conversion for the 21st century (AGC-21).
  uFigures 58-61
  uWorld realities
  uWorld’s oil & gas
endowment
  uEnergy consumption
    uOil
      uFigures 62-72 Figure 77. Recoverable oil and gas resources (after M. Ray Thomasson, 2000).
    uEra of gas
      uFigures 73-78
  uUnconventional
resources
  u"Beyond Petroleum" Figure 78. Unconventional hydrocarbon resources: obstacles to commercialization (after Bill Drennan /
    uFigures 79-90
  uAn energy scenario
Art Green, April 10, 2002).
    uFigure 91
  uEnergy & our
environment
    uFigure 92
uEnergy, nations &
Unconventional Resources
mankind’s future
  uFigures 93-96 "Beyond Petroleum" 
uRealities & opinions
of a geoscientist Figures 79-90
uFigure 97
uReferences Figure 79. World recoverable coal reserves (US Department of Energy, 2003;
  www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html).
 
 
  Figure 80. Coal resources of the world—Western Hemisphere (Source: World Coal).
 
 
 
  Figure 81. Coal resources of the world—Eastern Hemisphere (Source: World Coal).
 
 
 
  Figure 82. World Coal Consumption, 1970-2025. In billion short tons (left); coal share of world energy
  and consumption by section, 2001 and 2025 (right). (US Department of Energy; 2003;
  www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html).
uConclusions
uFactors driving global
 energy
  uFigure 1
Figure 83. World consumption of hydroelectricity and other renewable energy sources, 1970-2025 ((US
uDiscontinuities in Department of Energy, 2003; www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html).
energy
  uFigures 2-10
  uEight phases of
petroleum industry
  uRoots of petroleum
Figure 84, Gas driven electric power generator (Paul Bautista, Gas Technology Institute (Gas Research
industry Institute), Chicago).
uPost World War II
  uFigures 11-16
uPost Embargo: 1973 -
1980
  uFigures 17-22
uRecent: 1995 - 2001
  uFigures 23-27 Figure 85. Nuclear power: nuclear shares of national electricity generation, 2001 (left); operating nuclear
  uThe "New Economy"
  uCorporate
power plants worldwide as of February, 2003 (center), and nuclear power reactors under construction as of
consolidation January, 2003 (right). (US Department of Energy, 2003; www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html).
  uScience &
technology Figure 86. Windmill farm (Fortune, November, 2001)
    uFigures 28-44
  uSedimentary basin
systems
    uFigures 45-47
  uFrom science to
business ventures
    uFigures 48-53
  uKnowledge
    uFigures 54-57 Figure 87. The sun (Courtesy NASA/TRACE).
uThe Future to 2025
  uFigures 58-61
  uWorld realities
  uWorld’s oil & gas
endowment
  uEnergy consumption
    uOil Figure 88. Dynamics of Planet Earth (Kellogg et al., 1999; Morse, 2001) (reprint of Figure 19).
      uFigures 62-72
    uEra of gas
      uFigures 73-78
  uUnconventional
resources
  u"Beyond Petroleum" Figure 89. Projected annual renewable water supply per person by river basin, 2025 (after Johnston et al.,
    uFigures 79-90 2001) (World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C.).
  uAn energy scenario
    uFigure 91
  uEnergy & our
environment
    uFigure 92
uEnergy, nations &
mankind’s future
  uFigures 93-96
uRealities & opinions
of a geoscientist Figure 90. Hybrid vehicles - fuel cells - combustion vehicles and hydrogen (Fortune, November, 2001).
uFigure 97
uReferences
 
 
 
              Coal (Figures 79, 80, 81, and 82) 
  Hydroelectricity (Figures 83 and 84) 
              Nuclear Energy (Figure 85) 
 
  Wind Energy (Figure 86) 
  Solar Energy (Figure 87)
  The diameter of the sun is 864,000 miles. Hydrogen and helium compose 95% of it. Energy is generated by
  thermonuclear fusion that converts hydrogen to helium. Solar flairs hurl radiation and particles into space. The plasma
  temperature is about 1million degrees. Bright region "sun spots" have higher density of coronal gas than dark regions.
 
   
uConclusions
uFactors driving global Geothermal Energy (Figure 88) 
energy
  uFigure 1 Renewable Water Supply (Figure 89) 
uDiscontinuities in
energy
  uFigures 2-10
Efficiency and Conversation (Figure 90)
  uEight phases of
petroleum industry
 
  uRoots of petroleum
industry An Energy Scenario (Figure 91)
uPost World War II
  uFigures 11-16  
uPost Embargo: 1973 -
1980 Figure 91. Energy consumption and mix, 1860-2060, along with population growth.
  uFigures 17-22
uRecent: 1995 - 2001  
  uFigures 23-27
  uThe "New Economy"
  uCorporate
 Return to top.
consolidation
  uScience &
 
technology
    uFigures 28-44 A complex story of interacting variables and uncertain reserve figures 
  uSedimentary basin
 systems
    uFigures 45-47 Assumptions
  uFrom science to
business ventures             USGS 20000 World Resources
    uFigures 48-53
  uKnowledge             World GDD 2%
    uFigures 54-57
uThe Future to 2025
  uFigures 58-61
            No major wars or economic collapses
  uWorld realities
  uWorld’s oil & gas
            Global free flow of energy products to consumers
endowment
  uEnergy consumption             Major construction of international transport and refining infrastructure
    uOil
      uFigures 62-72             Globalization develops
    uEra of gas
      uFigures 73-78             Population increases
  uUnconventional
resources             More nations prosper
  u"Beyond Petroleum"
    uFigures 79-90             New energy sources viable at end of period
  uAn energy scenario
    uFigure 91             Moderate conservation and efficiency increases
  uEnergy & our
environment             National oil companies and private companies cooperate.
    uFigure 92
uEnergy, nations &
mankind’s future
 
  uFigures 93-96
uRealities & opinions Energy and Our Environment (Figure 92)
of a geoscientist
uFigure 97  
uReferences
  Figure 92. Cover of a report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global
  Change Research, July 2003.
   
   
 
   
  Energy, Nations, and Mankind’s Future (Figures 93, 94, 95, and 96)
 
 
 
  Figures 93-96 
 
 
 
 

Figure 94. 1999 Industrial physics forum standard of living (A.R. Green and Vincent McKelvey, Late
Director, USGS).

Figure 95. USGS 2000 oil endowment (graduated green color) of assessed provinces superimposed on
"Earth by Night" image (Thomas S. Ahlbrandt, USGS).

Figure 96. USGS 2000 oil endowment (graduated red color) of assessed provinces superimposed on "Earth
by Night" image (Thomas S. Ahlbrandt, USGS).
 
Realities and Opinions of a Geoscientist
 
Oil and gas supplies 65% of the world’s energy:
            80 million bbls per day and 220 billion cfg per day
            By 2010, 90 million bbls per day and 280 bcf per day
            Critical chemicals, lubes and refined products
 
Unconventional resources will increasingly be exploited - tar, heavy oil, tight gas, etc.
            Subsurface geologic knowledge
            Innovative production and refining methods
 
Renewable energy, excluding hydroelectric plants and nuclear represent about 2% of energy production worldwide.
 
Prospective geographic areas with large new oil and gas potential are becoming difficult to find, and viable contractual
agreements are a challenge.
 
By 2020 much of the oil and gas feeding the global economy will come from fields not yet online - the center of gravity
for oil and gas production is shifting.
 
The world power structure is self-organizing, breaking into a spectrum off political, social and religious entities, and
NGOs.
        The EU in Brussels is becoming a controlling influence in international business and regulations.
        The large the world economy, the more powerful its smallest members John Naisbitt, Megatrends).
 
Geoscience, concepts, tools, and technology are developing at an accelerated pace.
Advancements in drilling and logging capabilities and breakthroughs in fuel and chemical research will be needed to
meet the world’s growing energy needs.
We are just on the edge of understanding the fundamental complex earth processes that operate within the Earth’s
subsurface realm.
Massive streams of information and new technology have never been more abundant - and yet to transform them into
global, economic and social gain, requires the intellect, passion, and genius of the individual human mind working in
concert with sophisticated cross-discipline international teams.
Human knowledge and experience - by 2015, 50% of the geoscientists and petroleum engineers conduction our
exploration and production operations have not yet graduated from university.
The peaking of conventional oil and gas production is sure to happen, and while the timing is uncertain, there are signs
of change on the horizon. Energy related projects are long term - ten to fifteen years leas time needed. Short term
oversupply in the period leading up to peak production may result in complacency and inaction.
Meeting our energy needs in a world without walls is an essential prerequisite for a global transition to a more affluent
work population, the growth of freedom and a sustainable environment for our beautiful blue planet.
 
Who is responsible for developing a workable energy program for the future? If not us - who is?
 
Figure 97. The earth. 
 
 
References** 
**Other references are given with the text and figure captions.
 
Ahlbrandt, T.S., and World Energy Assessment Team, 2001, World Petroleum Assessment 2000: Compiled Power Point Slides: U.S.
Geological Survey Open-File Report 99-50-Z, 112 p. (http://greenwood.cr.usgs.gov/energy/WorldEnergy/OF99-50Z/)
Bijwaard, H., W. Spakman, and E.R. Engdahl, 1998, Closing the gap between regional and global travel time tomography: Journal Geophysical
Research, B, Solid Earth and Planets, v. 103, no. 12, p. 30,055-30,078.
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