2/8/22, 6:04 PM The Death of Globalization?

COVID 19 and the Nation-State - The Globalist

           

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The Death of Globalization? COVID 19 and the Nation-State

The temptation to forecast the end of globalization is large, but very premature.

By Michael Zürn, April 23, 2020

The list of potential victims of the COVID 19 crisis, according to some analysts,
includes the process of globalization itself. While crises are indeed moments
for changes in the course of history, not everything is fundamentally different after
the crisis has passed.

Three conditions of fundamental change

Social science research shows us that social practices change as a result of a

crisis when three conditions are met: First, the practices in question must be
seen as the cause or at least the aggravation of the crisis.

Second, there must be alternatives to the previously established patterns of

Credit: xtock - Shutterstock.com action that are feasible and not too costly.

For example, during the ozone crisis, substitutes for chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
that were the cause of the problem were able to establish themselves relatively
Takeaways
quickly, because their development was not expensive.

Breaking off the Third, a crisis is particularly likely to lead to change if the practices concerned
connection links were already in decline before the crisis. For instance, the Second World War led
between continents to a significant surge in decolonization, not least because colonialism had
would not be the end already passed its peak before.
of globalization.
Rather, it would The failure of localization, not globalization
represent a return to Against this background, it must be doubted whether economic globalization will
the 18th century.
also become a victim of COVID 19. There is a simple reason for that. The virus
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as such is not a consequence of globalization but of the failure of, or over-
reliance on, localization.
The pace of
globalization was In each case, the onset of the pandemic occurred locally and then spreads
already slowing down epidemically in the region. The global contagion map demonstrates this by the
before the crisis. But many, more or less thick circles, and each of which stands for a regional
slower acceleration epidemic.
does not The
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2/8/22, 6:04 PM
Economic
globalization was at a
high level before the
COVID 19 crisis. The
odds are that it will
probably return to
that level after the
crisis.
Rather, it would represent a return to the 18th century. Even in 1831, cholera was
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The only way for the
COVID 19 virus to be
confined regionally is
to ensure that there
are no more
airplanes, trains or
ships.
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The Death of Globalization? COVID 19 and the Nation-State - The Globalist
However, the ability of the infection to spread from region to region did not
depend on globalization. The transportation connections that had long been the
hallmark of an interdependent world would have been sufficient for this.
The only way for a virus to be confined regionally is to ensure that there are no
more airplanes, trains or ships. But that would not be the end of globalization.
able to reach Europe from Asia – and that despite a military cordon.
This underscores that the causal contribution of the further push toward
globalization that was undertaken in the 1990s and 2000s to the spread of the
global pandemic is low.
Renationalization of economic processes is possible
Of course, there are alternatives to the present patterns of global production and
supply chains. A partial renationalization of economic processes is possible.
However, this would lead to increased costs and considerable welfare losses.
When normalcy returns, the mountains of public and private debt will have grown
everywhere. We will find ourselves in a global recession. The cost pressure will
then be particularly high.
A slowdown is not a decline
However, it is important to realize that this is not an environment in which the
prospects for globalization will decrease.
It is true that the production of protective masks and some medications may be
rebuilt in many nation states. But these are special circumstances that are not
suitable for generalization.
It is also true that the pace of globalization was already slowing down before the
crisis. But that is not the same as saying that it was actually declining in practice.
A slower acceleration does not represent a reversal. That is also why it should
not be compared to a decline.
Economic globalization was at a high level before the crisis. The odds are that,
give or take some modifications, it will probably return to that level after the crisis.
A different kind of globalization
Therefore, caution is called for when prematurely proclaiming the end of
globalization.
After the crisis, some practical aspects will change. There will probably be more
video conferences and fewer international business meetings than before. That
would make sense.
All the more so as during the COVID 19 crisis, many of us have intuitively
learned the immediateness of video conferences. It is much easier to assemble a
great group of people for discussion, if they just have to clear their schedule for a ×
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2/8/22, 6:04 PM The Death of Globalization? COVID 19 and the Nation-State - The Globalist

It is also likely that the virus will accelerate the death of local retailers and, by the
same token, further increase the market share of Amazon & Co. That would be a
pity.

COVID 19 will also speed up the process of digitalization – and, better yet,
more globalization, of education – since we found ourselves forced to adopt new
digital practices.

Perhaps the corona virus will also lead to the end of the handshake and the
welcoming kiss as a social practice. We will probably get used to that as well.

Finally, as to supply chains, it seems unlikely that German or other companies

will cut back foreign production facilities on a large scale.

It is true that companies that depend on supplies from the Wuhan area ran into
difficulties in February. But if their production facility or supplier had been based
in, say, the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia, the problem would have
arisen in exactly the same way, only a little later.

Conclusion

Thus, much speaks for the fact that after the crisis is before the crisis.

More on this topic

The Deglobalization Virus?

Coronavirus: A True Stresstest for Globalization
COVID 19: 21st Century Reality Check

Tags: commerce, Coronavirus, COVID-19, deglobalization, digitalization, Future of Globalization,

globalization, latest, lifestyle, pandemics, society

About Michael Zürn

Michael Zürn is the director of the research unit on Transnational Conflicts and International
Institutions at the Social Science Research Center in Berlin and Director of the SCRIPTS
project.
Full bio → | View all posts by Michael Zürn →

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