Data-driven Methodology for Candidate Well Selection

and Ranking

Héctor De Paz Galicia1, Eduardo Roldán Reyes1, Leonid Sheremetov2

1 Tecnológico Nacional de México-Instituto Tecnológico de Orizaba, Veracruz, México
2 Mexican Petroleum Institute, Eje Central Lázaro Cárdenas 152, San Bartolo Atepehuacan,
CDMX, México.
hdepazg@ito-depi.edu.mx

Abstract. The research work is aimed in developing a data-driven methodology

for the identification, selection and ranking of candidate wells for productivity
analysis based on the historical oilfield data. The methodology integrates several
supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques, multi-criteria decision
analysis and case-based reasoning.

Keywords: Candidate-wells Selection and Ranking, Data Mining, TOPSIS,

Genetic Algorithm, NARX Neural Network, CBR.

1 Motivation

Wells productivity analysis (WPA) has been seen as a main strategy for increasing pro-
duction in oil and gas fields [1]. Production analysis of historical data evidence that
different workovers within the same oilfield produce very non-uniformly, and up to
30% may not be producing at all due to a combination of reservoir heterogeneity, geo-
mechanical, workover design and deployment factors. WPA begins with the selection
and prioritization of wells that have the best characteristics to increase the probability
of success. However, the main difficulties that arise during this analysis, is the large
number of wells to study, the necessity to examine the high volumes of data to identify
opportunities for production of wells operating, which require considerable effort and
a significant investment of resources using conventional numerical analysis methods
[2]. Therefore, a data-driven methodology that streamlines these information pro-
cessing operations is a time challenge.

2 Previous works in the area

Recently many efforts have been focused on different processes of well productivity.
Analyzing candidate well selection (CWS) for one of such processes, hydraulic frac-
turing (HF), Zoveidavianpoor and Gharibi classified the methods into conventional and
advanced [3]. A portfolio of advanced algorithms includes analytic hierarchy process
(AHP), decision trees, random forest, ANNs, linear regression and support vector
2

machines (SVM) [4,5]. This classification can be extended to other well productivity
processes like the stimulation treatment and workovers, where gradient boosting and
probabilistic expert system technique have been used [6,7]. Although data mining and
AI methods have been reported for CWS, these have only been focused on particular
processes like HF, workovers, stimulation, or refracturing. An integrated data-driven
methodology for WPA have not been reported in the literature so far.

3 Hypothesis and research objectives

The main objective of the proposed research is to develop a methodology for the iden-
tification, selection and prioritization of hydrocarbon production opportunities by inte-
grating data mining algorithms, multi-criteria optimization and artificial intelligence
techniques. To achieve this objective, the following goals are proposed:

• Develop a data acquisition mechanism, which allows for the efficient transfer of in-
formation and its organization into a database.
• Apply data mining techniques for pre-processing and data processing focused on the
selection and prioritization of candidate wells.
• Develop a multivariate forecasting model predicting dynamic behavior of the se-
lected wells after suggested treatment.
• Develop a model for multi-objective ranking of proposals for decision making.
• To create the infrastructure of the knowledge base of previous experiences, applying
the Case Based Reasoning (CBR) technique.
The research hypothesis is that application of a well productivity methodology integrat-
ing data mining and intelligent systems will considerably reduce analysis time and im-
prove decision making resulting in the increase of oil recovery.

4 Methodology

The proposed data-driven CWSR methodology follows the main stages of a process of
the productivity analysis, which begins with the acquisition of information and ends
with the proposed solution to increase wells’ production:

1. Data acquisition, pre-processing, and transformation.

2. CWS for productivity analysis.
3. OPS analysis and diagnostics.
4. Optimization, selection and ranking of workover proposals.
5. Conceptualization and knowledge base.
The first stage can be considered as a typical stage of any data analytics project. Super-
vised and unsupervised machine learning techniques are used for data pre-processing
and candidate well selection, as well as estimation of the type of intervention (1, 2).
A forecasting model based on Nonlinear Autoregressive network with eXogenous
inputs (NARX) is capable of predicting the response that the oil production will have,
 3

Fig. 1. Proposed methodology for the selection and ranking of wells.

in the following three months after the treatment (3). A Multi-Criteria Decision Analy-
sis (MCDA) method called a Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal
Solution (TOPSIS) is applied for selected wells’ ranking (4). The measures borrowed
from information retrieval, cumulative gain and discounted cumulative gain (DCG), are
applied under the premise that the first well from the list of candidates has the highest
probability of success. A genetic algorithm is proposed to optimize the weights applied
in TOPSIS. Finally, a case-based reasoning (CBR) will allow for a weighted evaluation
of the workover proposals based on previous experiences and best practices (5).

5 State of the research

At the time of writing, the first four stages of the methodology have been developed.
At the first stage, the α-trimmed mean (α = 0.2) technique was used for the outliers’
detection. Data transformation included both the definition of additional characteristics
to be taken into consideration, dimensionality reduction with PCA, variables’ selection
and scaling. The second stage deals with CWS, where both K-means and hierarchical
clustering algorithms were used. At the third stage, wells’ models were developed for
well productivity analysis based on available historical data in order to predict expected
outcome of the workover for each well from the list. The forecast tool helped to identify
the future event by providing the conditions (estimated variables) to carry out the diag-
nosis of the well. Time series forecasting techniques were used at this stage [8]. Finally,
for wells’ ranking, multi-objective data analysis (TOPSIS) was integrated with the evo-
lutionary algorithm to optimize the parameters of the developed models. The CBR
model is under development.
4

6 Preliminary results and conclusions

To test the proposed methodology, a mature field located in the southeast of Mexico is
considered. For the case study, 50 wells producing from the Mesozoic formation were
selected with a total of 700 workovers and the dimensions of the original data sample
with 38 variables and 11381 observations. After dimensionality reduction, nine varia-
bles were selected. In order to validate the obtained results, the candidate wells’ list
generated by the experts’ panel was used as the reference solution.
As a result of CWS, 30 wells were selected as candidates for further analysis and
ranking and 20 as non-candidates with the values of F1 Score 0.95 and 0.933 for the
hierarchical clustering and K-Means respectively. With the use of GA with the DCG-
based fitness for the optimization of the weights, a clear correlation with experts’ panel
is obtained (R2 = 0.99), not the case with the CG-based fitness. The differences in the
ranking found by TOPSIS and the experts’ panel can be attributed to the subjectivity of
the experts in assigning the weights on the selected criteria; in the same way, the results
of the relative proximity indicate that, for values that are very close or equal, the allo-
cation of the ranking of the wells becomes indistinct. The approach allows to obtain
acceptable results in a short time, reducing the analysis time for the CWSR by 78% in
comparison with conventional methods.

References
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2. Enciso-Paredes, E. J., de Antuñano-Muñoz, Y., Pérez-Herrera, R., and Perera-Pérez L. M.:
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Petrolera 59 (2): 18 (2019).
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6. Makhotin, I., Koroteev, D. and Burnaev, E.:. Gradient Boosting to Boost the Efficiency of
Hydraulic Fracturing. J. of Petroleum Exploration and Prod. Tech. 9 (3): 1919-25 (2019).
7. Zangl, G., Neuhofer, L., Zabel, D., Tippel, P., Pantazescu, C., Krcmarik, V., Krenn, L. and
Hachmöller, B.:. Smart and Automated Workover Candidate Selection. In: Proc. SPE Intel-
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 CURRICULUM VITAE
HÉCTOR DE PAZ GALICIA
hdepazg@ito-depi.edu.mx, hpg_2301@hotmail.com

Resumen
Ingeniero Químico egresado del Instituto Tecnológico de Orizaba, con grado de Maestro en Ciencias
en Ingeniería Química otorgado por el Instituto Tecnológico de Celaya, especialista en producción
de pozos petroleros, con más de 14 años de experiencia en la industria petrolera en el área
productividad de pozos, enfocado a la selección de sistemas artificiales de producción, diseño,
modelado de pozos y elaboración de programas de intervenciones a pozos. Actualmente curso el
quinto semestre del programa de Doctorado en Ciencias de la ingeniería del Instituto Tecnológico de
Orizaba.

Formación Académica
2018- Actual Doctorado en Ciencias de la Ingeniería.
Línea de Investigación: Ingeniería en Sistemas.
Tema de tesis: Desarrollo de una Metodología de Productividad de Pozos Mediante
la Analítica de Datos para el Estudio de Campos Maduros.
Asesor interno: Dr. Eduardo Roldán Reyes
Asesor externo: Dr. Leonid B. Sheremetov - Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo (IMP).
Tecnológico Nacional de México-Instituto Tecnológico de Orizaba.
Orizaba, Veracruz.
2002-2004 Maestría en Ciencias en Ingeniería Química
Tecnológico Nacional de México-Instituto Tecnológico de Celaya.
Celaya, Guanajuato.
1996-2001 Ingeniero Químico
Tecnológico Nacional de México-Instituto Tecnológico de Orizaba.
Orizaba, Veracruz.

Experiencia Profesional
2018. Geolis S.A. de C.V.
Coordinador de Productividad de Pozos y Sistemas Artificiales de Producción
Proyecto: Servicios Integrales de Reactivación y Mantenimiento de la Producción de Pozos
Cerrados, Activo de Producción Bloque Sur 03, Subdirección de Producción Bloques Sur de Pemex
Exploración y Producción, realizando actividades de estudios de productividad de pozos, a través
del análisis de información (yacimiento-pozo-instalaciones), para la identificación de oportunidades
de mejoramiento de producción (intervenciones).

2012 –2017. Ingeniería Aplicada OnePro

Especialista en Productividad de Pozos y Sistemas Artificiales de Producción
Responsable del proyecto de Productividad de Pozos para el Activo de Producción Cinco
Presidentes, alineado con la iniciativa de Excelencia en la Creación de Valor en la Producción
(ECVP), realizando actividades de estudios de productividad de pozos para la identificación de
oportunidades de mejoramiento de producción, mediante la optimización y reactivación de pozos, a
través de revisiones del sistema integral de producción (yacimiento-pozo-instalaciones). Selección,
Diseño, Evaluación y Documentación de las propuestas para la incorporación al Plan de Explotación.
Realización de la construcción y modelado de redes de transporte, con la finalidad de identificar
oportunidades de mejora de producción a nivel superficial.

2004-2012. Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo (IMP)

Especialista en producción
Responsable del análisis de las condiciones operativas de pozos, diseño y optimización de sistemas
de Bombeo Neumático, Elaboración de propuestas técnicas de pozos candidatos a sistemas
artificiales y seguimiento a los programas operativos de pozos. Análisis Técnico de las Mejores
Prácticas de Explotación para los pozos del Activo Integral Samaria Luna. Asistencia Técnica para
el Diseño de Sistemas Artificiales de Explotación y Redes de Recolección y Transporte de
Hidrocarburos del Activo Integral Aceite Terciario del Golfo.
2003. Unidad de Estudios Superiores de Salvatierra (UNESS)
Profesor de Estudios Superiores: Sistemas de control

Conferencia Impartida

Aplicación de la Metodología de Productividad de Pozos. Caso Pozo A1 Región Sur. 7mo. Congreso
Nacional de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad Juárez Autónoma de Tabasco (UJAT). Octubre 2017.

Publicaciones

Candidate Well Selection and Ranking Methodology for Productivity Analysis Based on Data Mining
and MCDA Techniques. SPE Production & Operations. Status: Enviado.
Autores: Héctor De Paz Galicia, Eduardo Roldán Reyes, Leonid B. Sheremetov.

Manejo de Aplicaciones Especializadas (Software)

Simuladores de procesos: Hysys.

Simuladores de Pozos: Pipesim, Wellflow, Prosper, Perform.
Simuladores Redes: Pipesim Net, Gap.
Sistemas Artificiales de Producción: Subpump, RodStar.
Programas: R, RapidMiner.
Sistemas Operativos Windows, Mac OS.

Idioma

Español: Nativo
Inglés: Intermedio