BY THE YEAR
2100 Dr. Le Thanh Sang
Climate Change at the
SEA LEVELS MAY
HAVE RISEN BY Grassroots
1
How sociology and demographics can help Vietnam plan for the effects
of global warming
Assessing the potential impact of climate
change on a geographic region is an imper-
METRE
fect science, but by now many national and
international bodies agree that Vietnam’s
Mekong Delta is among the world’s coastal
regions expected to experience the most
significant effects of global warming and
sea level rise.
The low-lying Mekong Delta is especially
vulnerable to flooding, saltwater intrusion
AFFECTING and drought due to hotter temperatures and
reduced rainfall. At this point, says Dr. Le
Thanh Sang, vice director of the Southern
Institute of Sustainable Development,
10%
Vietnam must take short- and long-term
measures to adapt to the effects the region
can reasonably anticipate.
Dr. Sang is a sociologist who specialises
OF VIETNAMESE in migration and urbanisation. Last year he
POPULATION conducted a survey in the Mekong River
Delta to assess awareness of climate
26.7%
change. “People in urban areas know
more,” says Dr. Sang. “[In rural communi-
ties] they cannot access information.”
Currently, climate change policies are
OF MEKONG DELTA only available at the national scale and tend
to employ top-down approaches based on
POPULATION quantitative information. The priority now,
says Dr. Sang, is to conduct research and
develop policy proposals that take into
8.76%
account the needs of specific communities
and sub-regions. Below are some of the
ways in which sociology and demograph-
ics will play a role in creating strategies to
OF VIETNAMESE adapt to climate change.
Assess impacts and vulnerabilities.
LAND AREA Many impoverished farmers and workers
of limited means traditionally live in coastal
31%
areas. Risks to health—spread of water-
borne disease, sanitation backup, crop
contamination—and access to work and
education could quickly exacerbate their
OF MEKONG DELTA already precarious circumstances. The cul-
tural, social and economic characteristics of
LAND AREA minorities, such as Khmers, are also closely
tied to their coastal communities, and they
would have greater difficulty integrating into
larger communities.
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
Integrate climate change initiatives
into poverty alleviation and socio-
economic development programmes.
Vietnam already has programmes in place
to provide services to disadvantaged com-
munities. The channels can be used as a
means of disseminating information on
climate change and developing programmes
to help farming families diversify crops,
increase income sources and alter their
lifestyle and behaviour.
Synthesize scenarios of impact and
vulnerability. Using demographic mecha-
nisms, researchers can create possible
scenarios that may result from climate
change and help scientists and engineers
develop solutions before they play out. In an
extreme case, this information could help
planners prepare for mass migration should
entire communities be inundated or crops
fail on a large scale. Demographers can also
draw on census data to analyse past results
of migration to better prepare cities and
regions to absorb the many migrants. This
information may also help decision-makers
weigh the costs against the benefits when
it comes to funding coastal protection and
dyke strengthening.
Mainstream climate change policies
at the grassroots. Social scientists can
help to vertically mainstream information
from communities into climate change poli-
cies and institutions, and horizontally main-
stream adaptation and mitigation measures
into economic development, healthcare
and education policy. They can use their
expertise to encourage participation of civil
society—farming associations, women’s
and youth unions, private business and
households.
Create adaptation methods and en-
hance human and institutional capacity
for response. Finances for dealing with
climate change are not unlimited. Demo-
graphic information can help policymakers
prioritise projects and local leaders and
institutions prepare community members at
the grassroots level to adapt to, rather than
flee from, the effects of climate change,
thereby preventing complications that could
result from mass migration.
Tom DiChristopher