WSOR Mar 2022 Reduced

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Utah Water Supply

March 1, 2022
Outlook Report

Gooseberry Upper SNOTEL site, U.M. Plateau near Fish Lake


Photo by Troy Brosten
STATE OF UTAH GENERAL OUTLOOK
March 1, 2022

SUMMARY
What happened to this winter? After a strong finish to the calendar year, Utah has received
very little snow in 2022. Statewide snow water equivalent (SWE) is currently 82% of
normal, which is barely better than last year at this time. All of our major basins have
below normal SWE except the Beaver, with several regions well below normal including the
Weber-Ogden, Provo, and Tooele Valley basins. Statewide precipitation was only 34% of
normal for the month of February and is currently 101% of normal for the water year, down
from 118% at the beginning of February. In fact, conditions at Utah’s SNOTEL sites have
been so dry over the last couple months that we have been setting records for minimum
precipitation received. The figure below shows the records set for precipitation over the 50
day period ending on March 1st; record minimums were set for 59 SNOTEL sites, with an
additional 13 tallying their second-worst accumulation over that period. As an example of
how extreme this dry cycle has been, the Ben Lomond Peak SNOTEL would normally
receive 9.8 inches of precipitation during this period; instead it got 0.8 inches…

Records for precipitation received at Utah’s SNOTEL sites over the last 50 days
We’re still holding out hope that March will bring much-needed snow. As one of Utah’s
wettest months, Utah typically gets around three inches of precipitation in the mountains
during March, which amounts to roughly 11% of the annual total. The state needs roughly
four additional inches of SWE to reach its typical peak snowpack conditions in early April.
A handful of solid, statewide storms could get us there! However, when considering the
ongoing multi-year deficit in precipitation for Utah going back a couple years, Utah would
need to receive roughly 13” additional precipitation above and beyond ‘normal’ conditions in
order to replenish depleted reserves.

The fact that Utah’s accumulated precipitation for the water year is close to normal reflects
early-season gains from storms in October and December. As a result, most of Utah’s
major watersheds remain close to normal precipitation for the 2022 water year, ranging
from 84% to 116% of median. Statewide soil moisture is 54% of saturation, which is above
normal and 27% greater than at this time last year. In theory, the comparatively wet soils
improve our chances for obtaining as much runoff as possible from the water stored in
Utah’s snowpack. That said, streamflow forecasts for April to July snowmelt runoff volume
continue to degrade as snowpack conditions have deteriorated. Statewide, forecasts range
from 20% to 92% of average 1. Worst-hit are the Abajo Mountains in Southeastern Utah,
where April through July runoff is only predicted to be 20% of average for Recapture Creek.
Elsewhere, the Sevier, Spanish Fork, Bear, Tooele Valley, Weber-Ogden, and Provo
watersheds are all anticipated to have another particularly poor runoff season unless
snowpack conditions quickly turn around.

Utah’s reservoir storage is at 53% of capacity, down 14% from this time last year. Surface
Water Supply Indices (SWSI) for Utah basins combine our current reservoir levels with the
additional volume of water anticipated for each watershed based on these March 1
streamflow forecasts. The majority of Utah’s basins have alarmingly low SWSI values,
suggesting that water supplies may be extremely limited in large portions of the state this
summer. Water managers are advised to consider the “Similar Years” column in the SWSI
chart provided on page 6 of this report and plan accordingly.

1
Note that new official ‘normal’ values for all parameters included in this report now use median instead of average as the measure of
central tendency. While percent of average numbers were included here for context, elsewhere in this report forecast are expressed as
percent of median. As the impact of these new normals based on median instead of average is particularly pronounced for Utah’s
runoff locations, please be cautious while evaluating the streamflow forecast percent normal values included herein. Our
recommendation is to focus on the predicted flow volume (kaf) instead of the percent normal for runoff. See here for additional
details on the NRCS normals.
Utah (statewide) Snowpack

Raft
Bear

Weber-Ogden
Northeastern
Uintas

Provo-Utah Lake-
Jordan
Tooele Valley- Duchesne
Vernon Creek

Deep
Creek
Mtns.
San
Pitch
Lower Sevier
Price - San Rafael

Beaver Upper Dirty Devil Southeastern


Sevier Utah

Southwestern
Utah
Escalante-Paria

Unshaded watersheds lack sufficient data to calculate


percent 1991-2020 NRCS Median.
Utah (statewide) Precipitation

Raft
Bear

Weber-Ogden
Northeastern
Uintas

Provo-Utah Lake-
Jordan
Tooele Valley- Duchesne
Vernon Creek

Deep
Creek
Mtns.
San
Pitch
Lower Sevier
Price - San Rafael

Beaver Upper Dirty Devil Southeastern


Sevier Utah

Southwestern
Utah
Escalante-Paria

Unshaded watersheds lack sufficient data to calculate


percent 1991-2020 NRCS Median.
March 1, 2022 | Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI)
Basin or Reservoir Apr-July Forecast + SWSI³ Percentile⁴ Similar Years
Region Storage¹ Forecast Storage
(KAF)² (KAF)² (KAF)² (%)
Bear 554.6 70.0 624.6 -1.26 35 [2010, 2016]

Woodruff 12.8 88.0 100.8 -2.23 23 [1988, 1992]


Narrows
Little Bear 12.1 18.3 30.4 -0.94 39 [2012, 2020]

Ogden 33.6 55.0 88.6 -3.0 14 [2001, 2013]

Weber 187.0 155.0 342.0 -3.2 12 [2003, 2015]

Provo 796.7 64.0 860.7 -3.3 10 [2003, 2016]

Western 165.1 88.0 253.1 0.29 53 [2014, 2015]


Uintas
Eastern 21.5 49.0 70.5 -2.81 16 [1989, 1990]
Uintas
Blacks Fork 11.4 65.0 76.4 -1.67 30 [1992, 2013]

Smiths Fork 5.7 22.0 27.7 -1.46 32 [1992, 2013]

Price 19.0 27.0 46.0 -1.84 28 [1989, 2013]

Joes Valley 21.9 38.0 59.9 -3.78 5 [2013, 2021]

Ferron Creek 3.3 26.0 29.3 -2.81 16 [1981, 2012]

Moab 1.0 3.6 4.6 0.0 50 [2006, 2008]

Upper Sevier 41.3 24.4 65.7 -3.59 7 [1991, 2021]

San Pitch 0.0 11.0 11.0 -3.2 12 [2015, 2016]

Lower Sevier 69.3 28.0 97.3 -3.78 5 [2004, 2018]

Beaver River 6.4 17.0 23.4 -2.62 19 [2000, 2007]

Virgin River 32.9 35.8 68.7 -0.94 39 [1994, 2012]


¹ End of Month Reservoir Storage; ² KAF, Thousand Acre-Feet; ³ SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; ⁴ Threshold for coloring: >75% Green, <25% Red

What is a Surface Water Supply Index?


The Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) is a predictive indicator of total surface water availability within a watershed for the spring and
summer water use seasons. The index is calculated by combining pre-runoff reservoir storage (carryover) with forecasts of spring and
summer streamflow which are based on current snowpack and other hydrologic variables. SWSI values are scaled from +4.1 (abundant
supply) to -4.1 (extremely dry) with a value of zero (0) indicating median water supply as compared to historical analysis. SWSI's are
calculated in this fashion to be consistent with other hydroclimatic indicators such as the Palmer Drought Index and the Precipitation
index.

Utah Snow Surveys has also chosen to display the SWSI value as well as a PERCENT CHANCE OF NON-EXCEEDANCE. While this is
a cumbersome name, it has a simple application. It can be best thought of as a scale of 1 to 99 with 1 being the drought of record (driest
possible conditions) and 99 being the flood of record (wettest possible conditions) and a value of 50 representing average conditions.
This rating scale is a percentile rating as well, for example a SWSI of 75% means that this years water supply is greater than 75% of all
historical events and that only 25% of the time has it been exceeded. Conversely a SWSI of 10% means that 90% of historical events
have been greater than this one and that only 10% have had less total water supply. This scale is comparable between basins: a SWSI
of 50% means the same relative ranking on watershed A as it does on watershed B, which may not be strictly true of the +4 to -4 scale.
Utah (statewide) | March 1, 2022

Snowpack in Utah (statewide) is below normal at 82% of median, compared to 80% at this time last
year. Precipitation in February was well below normal at 34%, which brings the seasonal accumulation
(October-February) to 101% of median. Soil moisture is at 54% saturation compared to 27% saturation
last year. Statewide, reservoir storage is 53% of capacity, compared to 67% last year¹. Forecast
streamflow volumes (50% exceedence, April-July) range from 41% to 132% of normal.

Statistical shading breaks at 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th, and 90th percentiles.
For more information visit: 30 year normal calculation description

¹Statewide reservoir percentages exclude Lake Powell and Flaming Gorge Reservoirs.
Bear | March 1, 2022

Snowpack in the Bear River Basin is below normal at 79% of median, compared to 86% at this time last
year. Precipitation in February was well below normal at 17%, which brings the seasonal accumulation
(October-February) to 100% of median. Soil moisture is at 66% saturation compared to 46% saturation
last year. Reservoir storage is 42% of capacity, compared to 61% last year. Forecast streamflow
volumes (50% exceedence, April-July) range from 61% to 87% of normal. The Surface Water Supply
Index percentiles are 35% for the Bear, 39% for the Little Bear, and 23% for Woodruff Narrows.

Statistical shading breaks at 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th, and 90th percentiles.
For more information visit: 30 year normal calculation description
Bear
Bear
Weber-Ogden | March 1, 2022

Snowpack in the Weber and Ogden River Basins is below normal at 71% of median, compared to 79%
at this time last year. Precipitation in February was well below normal at 17%, which brings the seasonal
accumulation (October-February) to 94% of median. Soil moisture is at 63% saturation compared to
33% saturation last year. Reservoir storage is 40% of capacity, compared to 57% last year. Forecast
streamflow volumes (50% exceedence, April-July) range from 68% to 86% of normal. The Surface
Water Supply Index percentiles are 12% for the Weber, and 14% for the Ogden.

Statistical shading breaks at 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th, and 90th percentiles.
For more information visit: 30 year normal calculation description
Weber-Ogden
Weber-Ogden
Provo-Jordan-Utah Lake | March 1, 2022

Snowpack in the Provo and Jordan River Basins is below normal at 75% of median, compared to 82% at
this time last year. Precipitation in February was well below normal at 24%, which brings the seasonal
accumulation (October-February) to 99% of median. Soil moisture is at 58% saturation compared to
22% saturation last year. Reservoir storage is 66% of capacity, compared to 77% last year. Forecast
streamflow volumes (50% exceedence, April-July) range from 61% to 87% of normal. The Surface
Water Supply Index percentile is 10% for the Provo.

Statistical shading breaks at 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th, and 90th percentiles.
For more information visit: 30 year normal calculation description
Provo-Utah Lake-Jordan
Provo-Utah Lake-Jordan
Tooele Valley-Vernon Creek | March 1, 2022

Snowpack in the Tooele Valley and West Desert Region is well below normal at 63% of median,
compared to 90% at this time last year. Precipitation in February was well below normal at 29%, which
brings the seasonal accumulation (October-February) to 84% of median. Soil moisture is at 30%
saturation compared to 10% saturation last year. Reservoir storage is 53% of capacity, compared to
50% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes (50% exceedence, April-July) range from 64% to 71% of
normal.

Statistical shading breaks at 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th, and 90th percentiles.
For more information visit: 30 year normal calculation description
Tooele Valley-Vernon Creek
Tooele Valley-Vernon Creek
Northeastern Uintas | March 1, 2022

Snowpack in the Northeastern Uintas is about normal at 90% of median, compared to 76% at this time
last year. Precipitation in February was well below normal at 49%, which brings the seasonal
accumulation (October-February) to 105% of median. Soil moisture is at 47% saturation compared to
26% saturation last year. Reservoir storage is 77% of capacity, compared to 83% last year. Forecast
streamflow volumes (50% exceedence, April-July) range from 56% to 85% of normal. The Surface
Water Supply Index percentiles are 30% for the Blacks Fork, and 32% for the Smiths Fork.

Statistical shading breaks at 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th, and 90th percentiles.
For more information visit: 30 year normal calculation description
Northeastern Uintas
Northeastern Uintas
Duchesne | March 1, 2022

Snowpack in the Duchesne River Basin is about normal at 91% of median, compared to 72% at this time
last year. Precipitation in February was well below normal at 26%, which brings the seasonal
accumulation (October-February) to 109% of median. Soil moisture is at 48% saturation compared to
18% saturation last year. Reservoir storage is 74% of capacity, compared to 79% last year. Forecast
streamflow volumes (50% exceedence, April-July) range from 90% to 132% of normal. The Surface
Water Supply Index percentiles are 53% for the Western Uintas, and 16% for the Eastern Uintas.

Statistical shading breaks at 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th, and 90th percentiles.
For more information visit: 30 year normal calculation description
Duchesne
Duchesne
San Pitch | March 1, 2022

Snowpack in the San Pitch River Basin is below normal at 81% of median, compared to 78% at this time
last year. Precipitation in February was well below normal at 53%, which brings the seasonal
accumulation (October-February) to 105% of median. Soil moisture is at 67% saturation compared to
38% saturation last year. Reservoir storage is 0% of capacity, compared to 0% last year. The forecast
streamflow volume (50% exceedence, April-July) for Manti Creek is 85% of normal. The Surface Water
Supply Index percentile is 12% for the San Pitch.

Statistical shading breaks at 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th, and 90th percentiles.
For more information visit: 30 year normal calculation description
San Pitch
San Pitch
Price-San Rafael | March 1, 2022

Snowpack in the Price and San Rafael River Basins is below normal at 86% of median, compared to
72% at this time last year. Precipitation in February was well below normal at 47%, which brings the
seasonal accumulation (October-February) to 116% of median. Soil moisture is at 59% saturation
compared to 28% saturation last year. Reservoir storage is 30% of capacity, compared to 52% last year.
Forecast streamflow volumes (50% exceedence, April-July) range from 81% to 118% of normal. The
Surface Water Supply Index percentiles are 28% for the Price, 5% for Joes Valley, and 16% for Ferron
Creek.

Statistical shading breaks at 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th, and 90th percentiles.
For more information visit: 30 year normal calculation description
Price San-Rafael
Price-San Rafael
Lower Sevier | March 1, 2022

Snowpack in the Lower Sevier River Basin is below normal at 85% of median, compared to 88% at this
time last year. Precipitation in February was well below normal at 46%, which brings the seasonal
accumulation (October-February) to 90% of median. Soil moisture is at 46% saturation compared to
16% saturation last year. Reservoir storage is 29% of capacity, compared to 39% last year. Forecast
streamflow volume (50% exceedence, April-July) for the Sevier River near Gunnison is 93% of normal.
The Surface Water Supply Index percentile is 5% for the Lower Sevier.

Statistical shading breaks at 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th, and 90th percentiles.
For more information visit: 30 year normal calculation description
Lower Sevier
Lower Sevier
Upper Sevier | March 1, 2022

Snowpack in the Upper Sevier River Basin is about normal at 95% of median, compared to 75% at this
time last year. Precipitation in February was well below normal at 62%, which brings the seasonal
accumulation (October-February) to 101% of median. Soil moisture is at 47% saturation compared to
23% saturation last year. Reservoir storage is 31% of capacity, compared to 52% last year. Forecast
streamflow volumes (50% exceedence, April-July) range from 86% to 93% of normal. The Surface
Water Supply Index percentile is 7% for the Upper Sevier.

Statistical shading breaks at 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th, and 90th percentiles.
For more information visit: 30 year normal calculation description
Upper Sevier
Upper Sevier
Southeastern Utah | March 1, 2022

Snowpack in Southeastern Utah is about normal at 91% of median, compared to 67% at this time last
year. Precipitation in February was well below normal at 61%, which brings the seasonal accumulation
(October-February) to 109% of median. Soil moisture is at 51% saturation compared to 19% saturation
last year. Reservoir storage is 43% of capacity, compared to 26% last year. Forecast streamflow
volumes (50% exceedence, April-July) range from 41% to 109% of normal. The Surface Water Supply
Index percentile is 50% for Moab.

Statistical shading breaks at 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th, and 90th percentiles.
For more information visit: 30 year normal calculation description
Southeastern Utah
Southeastern Utah
Dirty Devil | March 1, 2022

Snowpack in the Dirty Devil River Basin is below normal at 88% of median, compared to 85% at this
time last year. Precipitation in February was well below normal at 62%, which brings the seasonal
accumulation (October-February) to 111% of median. Soil moisture is at 43% saturation compared to
24% saturation last year. Forecast streamflow volumes (50% exceedence, April-July) range from 74% to
90% of normal.

Statistical shading breaks at 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th, and 90th percentiles.
For more information visit: 30 year normal calculation description
Dirty Devil
Dirty Devil
Escalante-Paria | March 1, 2022

Snowpack in the Escalante and Paria River Basins is about normal at 90% of median, compared to 74%
at this time last year. Precipitation in February was below normal at 74%, which brings the seasonal
accumulation (October-February) to 90% of median. Soil moisture is at 28% saturation compared to
13% saturation last year. The forecast streamflow volume (50% exceedence, April-July) for Pine Creek
is 77% of normal.

Statistical shading breaks at 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th, and 90th percentiles.
For more information visit: 30 year normal calculation description
Escalante-Paria
Escalante-Paria
Beaver | March 1, 2022

Snowpack in the Beaver River Basin is above normal at 113% of median, compared to 78% at this time
last year. Precipitation in February was well below normal at 51%, which brings the seasonal
accumulation (October-February) to 111% of median. Soil moisture is at 38% saturation compared to
12% saturation last year. Reservoir storage is 27% of capacity, compared to 34% last year. The forecast
streamflow volume (50% exceedence, April-July) for the Beaver River is 98% of normal. The Surface
Water Supply Index percentile is 19% for the Beaver River.

Statistical shading breaks at 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th, and 90th percentiles.
For more information visit: 30 year normal calculation description
Beaver
Beaver
Southwestern Utah | March 1, 2022

Snowpack in Southwestern Utah is about normal at 100% of median, compared to 61% at this time last
year. Precipitation in February was well below normal at 53%, which brings the seasonal accumulation
(October-February) to 112% of median. Soil moisture is at 52% saturation compared to 22% saturation
last year. Reservoir storage is 25% of capacity, compared to 38% last year. Forecast streamflow
volumes (50% exceedence, April-July) range from 87% to 92% of normal. The Surface Water Supply
Index percentile is 39% for the Virgin River.

Statistical shading breaks at 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th, and 90th percentiles.
For more information visit: 30 year normal calculation description
Southwestern Utah
Southwestern Utah
Report Created: Streamflow Forecast Summary: March 1, 2022
3/3/2022 5:21:16 PM (Medians based On 1991-2020 reference period)
Forecast Exceedance Probabilities For Risk Assessment
Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast
Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Median
Raft % Median
Period (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
Dunn Ck nr Park Valley
APR-JUL 0.41 1.18 1.7 71% 2.2 3 2.4

1) 90% And 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% And 5%


2) Forecasts are For unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent On management of upstream reservoirs And diversions

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities For Risk Assessment


Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Median


Bear % Median
Period (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
Bear R nr UT-WY State Line
APR-JUL 53 74 88 87% 102 123 101
APR-SEP 59 82 98 86% 114 137 114
Blacksmith Fk nr Hyrum
APR-JUL 0.19 13.2 22 76% 31 44 29
Bear R ab Resv nr Woodruff
APR-JUL 3.3 48 78 85% 108 152 92
APR-SEP 1.54 49 82 83% 114 162 99
Bear R bl Stewart Dam
MAR-JUL 24 53 80 63% 112 170 126
MAR-SEP 26 60 90 65% 127 192 139
APR-JUL 14.9 43 70 61% 104 166 115
APR-SEP 14.2 44 73 60% 110 177 122
Little Bear at Paradise
APR-JUL 2.5 9.2 18.3 65% 27 41 28
Big Ck nr Randolph
APR-JUL 0.35 1.38 2.7 84% 4 6 3.2
Logan R nr Logan
APR-JUL 43 61 73 80% 85 103 91
Smiths Fk nr Border
APR-JUL 35 51 62 72% 72 88 86
APR-SEP 43 61 74 74% 86 104 100

1) 90% And 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% And 5%


2) Forecasts are For unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent On management of upstream reservoirs And diversions

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities For Risk Assessment


Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Median


Weber-Ogden % Median
Period (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
Pineview Reservoir Inflow
APR-JUL 6.3 30 55 70% 81 118 79
East Canyon Ck nr Morgan
APR-JUL 0.93 9.6 15.5 86% 21 30 18
Lost Ck Reservoir Inflow
APR-JUL 0.1 4.1 6.9 73% 9.6 13.6 9.5
SF Ogden R nr Huntsville
APR-JUL 6.5 19.2 28 68% 37 49 41
Weber R at Gateway
APR-JUL 16.4 91 155 76% 220 295 205
Rockport Reservoir Inflow
APR-JUL 20 50 70 80% 90 120 87
Weber R nr Oakley
APR-JUL 43 62 76 78% 90 109 97
East Canyon Ck nr Jeremy Ranch
APR-JUL 1.43 3.3 8 84% 12.7 19.7 9.5
Echo Reservoir Inflow
APR-JUL 16.8 59 88 73% 117 160 120
Weber R nr Coalville
APR-JUL 22 54 75 81% 96 128 93
Chalk Ck at Coalville
APR-JUL 3.4 11.1 21 81% 31 46 26

1) 90% And 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% And 5%


2) Forecasts are For unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent On management of upstream reservoirs And diversions

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities For Risk Assessment


Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Median


Northeastern Uintas % Median
Period (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
Flaming Gorge Reservoir Inflow 2
APR-JUL 255 420 555 56% 715 980 990
Big Brush Ck ab Red Fleet Reservoir
APR-JUL 5.7 10.6 14 71% 17.4 22 19.7
2
Stateline Reservoir Inflow
APR-JUL 13.7 18.4 22 85% 26 32 26
Blacks Fk nr Robertson
APR-JUL 34 52 65 71% 78 96 91
Flaming Gorge Resvr Local Bl Fontenelle 2

Ashley Ck nr Vernal
APR-JUL 16.2 27 35 81% 43 54 43

1) 90% And 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% And 5%


2) Forecasts are For unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent On management of upstream reservoirs And diversions

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities For Risk Assessment


Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast

Tooele Valley- Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Median
% Median
Vernon Creek Period (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
Vernon Ck nr Vernon
APR-JUL 0.11 0.31 0.5 68% 0.73 1.16 0.74
S Willow Ck nr Grantsville
APR-JUL 0.31 1.08 1.6 64% 2.1 2.9 2.5

1) 90% And 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% And 5%


2) Forecasts are For unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent On management of upstream reservoirs And diversions

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities For Risk Assessment


Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Median


Duchesne % Median
Period (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
Duchesne R nr Randlett 2
APR-JUL 119 199 265 104% 340 470 255
2
Strawberry R nr Soldier Springs
APR-JUL 14.8 27 37 103% 49 69 36
Yellowstone R nr Altonah
APR-JUL 35 46 55 98% 65 80 56
WF Duchesne R at VAT Diversion2
APR-JUL 7.9 10.8 13 90% 15.4 19.3 14.5
Strawberry R nr Duchesne 2
APR-JUL 27 50 70 132% 93 133 53
2
Duchesne R at Myton
APR-JUL 114 181 235 109% 295 400 215
2
Duchesne R nr Tabiona
APR-JUL 50 66 78 90% 91 112 87
2
Upper Stillwater Reservoir Inflow
APR-JUL 42 55 65 96% 76 93 68
2
Rock Ck nr Mountain Home
APR-JUL 54 67 77 99% 87 104 78
Uinta R bl Powerplant Diversion nr Neola
APR-JUL 30 45 58 91% 72 96 64
Whiterocks R nr Whiterocks
APR-JUL 25 36 44 102% 53 68 43
2
Lake Fk R bl Moon Lk nr Mountain Home
APR-JUL 36 46 53 93% 61 73 57
Currant Ck Reservoir Inflow2
APR-JUL 8.1 12 15.1 127% 18.6 24 11.9
2
Duchesne R ab Knight Diversion
APR-JUL 108 138 160 99% 184 220 162

1) 90% And 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% And 5%


2) Forecasts are For unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent On management of upstream reservoirs And diversions

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities For Risk Assessment


Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast

Provo-Utah Lake- Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Median
% Median
Jordan Period (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
American Fk ab Upper Powerplant
APR-JUL 0.74 8.4 13.6 71% 18.8 26 19.2
W Canyon Ck nr Cedar Fort
APR-JUL 0.03 0.16 0.6 63% 1.07 1.92 0.95
Spanish Fk at Castilla
APR-JUL 2.4 8.9 26 87% 40 62 30
Provo R at Woodland
APR-JUL 50 64 64 75% 84 101 85
Mill Ck nr SLC
APR-JUL 1.52 2.5 3.4 79% 4.4 6 4.3
Utah Lake Inflow
APR-JUL 5.3 48 120 66% 240 535 182
City Ck nr SLC
APR-JUL 1.86 2.9 3.8 72% 4.8 6.4 5.3
Dell Fk nr SLC
APR-JUL 1.17 2 2.8 78% 3.6 5 3.6
Parleys Ck nr SLC
APR-JUL 2.3 4.6 6.6 76% 9 13.1 8.7
Emigration Ck nr SLC
APR-JUL 0.25 0.82 1.4 61% 2.1 3.5 2.3
Provo R bl Deer Ck Dam
APR-JUL 36 65 84 74% 103 132 113
Big Cottonwood Ck nr SLC
APR-JUL 14.6 19.4 23 79% 27 33 29
Little Cottonwood Ck nr SLC
APR-JUL 18.1 22 25 81% 28 33 31
Salt Ck at Nephi
APR-JUL 0.28 0.85 3.6 77% 6.2 9.7 4.7
Provo R at Hailstone
APR-JUL 38 53 64 77% 77 97 83

1) 90% And 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% And 5%


2) Forecasts are For unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent On management of upstream reservoirs And diversions

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities For Risk Assessment


Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Median


Lower Sevier % Median
Period (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
Sevier R nr Gunnison
APR-JUL 1.7 13.5 28 93% 48 86 30

1) 90% And 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% And 5%


2) Forecasts are For unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent On management of upstream reservoirs And diversions

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities For Risk Assessment


Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Median


San Pitch % Median
Period (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
Manti Ck bl Dugway Ck nr Manti
APR-JUL 4.5 8.4 11 85% 13.6 17.5 13

1) 90% And 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% And 5%


2) Forecasts are For unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent On management of upstream reservoirs And diversions

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities For Risk Assessment


Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Median


Price-San Rafael % Median
Period (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
Fish Ck ab Reservoir nr Scofield
APR-JUL 12.1 17.1 21 106% 25 32 19.8
Ferron Ck (Upper Station) nr Ferron
APR-JUL 17.1 22 26 81% 31 37 32
2
Price R nr Scofield Reservoir
APR-JUL 15.1 22 27 104% 33 42 26
2
Electric Lake Inflow
APR-JUL 5.2 7.3 8.9 107% 10.7 13.7 8.3
Huntington Ck nr Huntington 2
APR-JUL 19.7 27 33 92% 39 49 36
White R bl Tabbyune Creek
APR-JUL 3.5 6.2 8.5 118% 11.2 15.7 7.2
Joes Valley Reservoir Inflow2
APR-JUL 24 32 38 86% 45 55 44

1) 90% And 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% And 5%


2) Forecasts are For unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent On management of upstream reservoirs And diversions

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities For Risk Assessment


Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Median


Upper Sevier % Median
Period (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
EF Sevier R nr Kingston
APR-JUL 2.9 7.4 11.5 86% 16.6 26 13.4
Salina Ck nr Emery
APR-JUL 2.3 3.9 4.9 88% 5.9 7.4 5.6
Mammoth Ck nr Hatch
APR-JUL 2.4 11.4 17.5 89% 24 33 19.7
Clear Ck ab Diversions nr Sevier
APR-JUL 0.78 7.3 11.8 87% 16.3 23 13.6
Sevier R nr Gunnison
APR-JUL 1.7 13.5 28 93% 48 86 30
Sevier R nr Kingston
APR-JUL 1.99 7.4 12.9 88% 20 33 14.7
Sevier R at Hatch
APR-JUL 2.3 19.4 31 91% 43 60 34

1) 90% And 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% And 5%


2) Forecasts are For unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent On management of upstream reservoirs And diversions

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities For Risk Assessment


Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Median


Southeastern Utah % Median
Period (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
Mill Ck at Sheley Tunnel nr Moab
APR-JUL 1.8 2.8 3.6 109% 4.5 6 3.3
South Ck ab Resv nr Monticello
APR-JUL 0 0.07 0.17 41% 0.31 0.6 0.41
2
Green R at Green River, UT
APR-JUL 1110 1620 2020 77% 2470 3200 2610
2
Colorado R nr Cisco
APR-JUL 2120 2830 3380 90% 3970 4930 3750

1) 90% And 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% And 5%


2) Forecasts are For unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent On management of upstream reservoirs And diversions

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities For Risk Assessment


Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Median


Dirty Devil % Median
Period (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
Seven Mile Ck nr Fish Lake
APR-JUL 3.2 4.5 5.5 90% 6.6 8.5 6.1
Muddy Ck nr Emery
APR-JUL 6.5 9.6 12 74% 14.7 19.2 16.3

1) 90% And 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% And 5%


2) Forecasts are For unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent On management of upstream reservoirs And diversions

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities For Risk Assessment


Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Median


Beaver % Median
Period (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
Beaver R nr Beaver
APR-JUL 5.2 12.2 17 98% 22 29 17.4

1) 90% And 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% And 5%


2) Forecasts are For unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent On management of upstream reservoirs And diversions
Forecast Exceedance Probabilities For Risk Assessment
Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Median


Southwestern Utah % Median
Period (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
Santa Clara R nr Pine Valley2

Coal Ck nr Cedar City


APR-JUL 1.79 7.3 11 88% 14.7 20 12.5
Virgin R nr Hurricane

Virgin R at Virgin

1) 90% And 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% And 5%


2) Forecasts are For unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent On management of upstream reservoirs And diversions

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities For Risk Assessment


Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Median


Escalante-Paria % Median
Period (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
Pine Ck nr Escalante
APR-JUL 0.43 0.87 1.25 77% 1.7 2.5 1.63

1) 90% And 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% And 5%


2) Forecasts are For unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent On management of upstream reservoirs And diversions

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities For Risk Assessment


Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Median


State of Utah % Median
Period (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
East Canyon Ck nr Morgan
APR-JUL 0.93 9.6 15.5 86% 21 30 18
Dunn Ck nr Park Valley
APR-JUL 0.41 1.18 1.7 71% 2.2 3 2.4
SF Ogden R nr Huntsville
APR-JUL 6.5 19.2 28 68% 37 49 41
Yellowstone R nr Altonah
APR-JUL 35 46 55 98% 65 80 56
Weber R nr Oakley
APR-JUL 43 62 76 78% 90 109 97
Sevier R nr Gunnison
APR-JUL 1.7 13.5 28 93% 48 86 30
Ashley Ck nr Vernal
APR-JUL 16.2 27 35 81% 43 54 43
Provo R at Hailstone
APR-JUL 38 53 64 77% 77 97 83
Joes Valley Reservoir Inflow2
APR-JUL 24 32 38 86% 45 55 44
EF Sevier R nr Kingston
APR-JUL 2.9 7.4 11.5 86% 16.6 26 13.4
East Canyon Ck nr Jeremy Ranch
APR-JUL 1.43 3.3 8 84% 12.7 19.7 9.5
Sevier R nr Kingston
APR-JUL 1.99 7.4 12.9 88% 20 33 14.7
Pineview Reservoir Inflow
APR-JUL 6.3 30 55 70% 81 118 79
Fish Ck ab Reservoir nr Scofield
APR-JUL 12.1 17.1 21 106% 25 32 19.8
Clear Ck ab Diversions nr Sevier
APR-JUL 0.78 7.3 11.8 87% 16.3 23 13.6
2
Huntington Ck nr Huntington
APR-JUL 19.7 27 33 92% 39 49 36
Virgin R nr Hurricane

2
Santa Clara R nr Pine Valley

Spanish Fk at Castilla
APR-JUL 2.4 8.9 26 87% 40 62 30
Manti Ck bl Dugway Ck nr Manti
APR-JUL 4.5 8.4 11 85% 13.6 17.5 13
2
Electric Lake Inflow
APR-JUL 5.2 7.3 8.9 107% 10.7 13.7 8.3
Big Cottonwood Ck nr SLC
APR-JUL 14.6 19.4 23 79% 27 33 29
Stateline Reservoir Inflow2
APR-JUL 13.7 18.4 22 85% 26 32 26
Weber R at Gateway
APR-JUL 16.4 91 155 76% 220 295 205
2
Duchesne R nr Tabiona
APR-JUL 50 66 78 90% 91 112 87
Virgin R at Virgin

Salt Ck at Nephi
APR-JUL 0.28 0.85 3.6 77% 6.2 9.7 4.7
2
Colorado R nr Cisco
APR-JUL 2120 2830 3380 90% 3970 4930 3750
Big Brush Ck ab Red Fleet Reservoir
APR-JUL 5.7 10.6 14 71% 17.4 22 19.7
Blacksmith Fk nr Hyrum
APR-JUL 0.19 13.2 22 76% 31 44 29
Bear R ab Resv nr Woodruff
APR-JUL 3.3 48 78 85% 108 152 92
APR-SEP 1.54 49 82 83% 114 162 99
Little Cottonwood Ck nr SLC
APR-JUL 18.1 22 25 81% 28 33 31
Mill Ck at Sheley Tunnel nr Moab
APR-JUL 1.8 2.8 3.6 109% 4.5 6 3.3
Little Bear at Paradise
APR-JUL 2.5 9.2 18.3 65% 27 41 28
Whiterocks R nr Whiterocks
APR-JUL 25 36 44 102% 53 68 43
White R bl Tabbyune Creek
APR-JUL 3.5 6.2 8.5 118% 11.2 15.7 7.2
2
Strawberry R nr Soldier Springs
APR-JUL 14.8 27 37 103% 49 69 36
WF Duchesne R at VAT Diversion2
APR-JUL 7.9 10.8 13 90% 15.4 19.3 14.5
Provo R at Woodland
APR-JUL 50 64 64 75% 84 101 85
Uinta R bl Powerplant Diversion nr Neola
APR-JUL 30 45 58 91% 72 96 64
Big Ck nr Randolph
APR-JUL 0.35 1.38 2.7 84% 4 6 3.2
Logan R nr Logan
APR-JUL 43 61 73 80% 85 103 91
Smiths Fk nr Border
APR-JUL 35 51 62 72% 72 88 86
APR-SEP 43 61 74 74% 86 104 100
American Fk ab Upper Powerplant
APR-JUL 0.74 8.4 13.6 71% 18.8 26 19.2
Flaming Gorge Reservoir Inflow 2
APR-JUL 255 420 555 56% 715 980 990
Mammoth Ck nr Hatch
APR-JUL 2.4 11.4 17.5 89% 24 33 19.7
Mill Ck nr SLC
APR-JUL 1.52 2.5 3.4 79% 4.4 6 4.3
South Ck ab Resv nr Monticello
APR-JUL 0 0.07 0.17 41% 0.31 0.6 0.41
2
Price R nr Scofield Reservoir
APR-JUL 15.1 22 27 104% 33 42 26
Provo R bl Deer Ck Dam
APR-JUL 36 65 84 74% 103 132 113
Sevier R at Hatch
APR-JUL 2.3 19.4 31 91% 43 60 34
W Canyon Ck nr Cedar Fort
APR-JUL 0.03 0.16 0.6 63% 1.07 1.92 0.95
Utah Lake Inflow
APR-JUL 5.3 48 120 66% 240 535 182
2
Upper Stillwater Reservoir Inflow
APR-JUL 42 55 65 96% 76 93 68
Seven Mile Ck nr Fish Lake
APR-JUL 3.2 4.5 5.5 90% 6.6 8.5 6.1
Blacks Fk nr Robertson
APR-JUL 34 52 65 71% 78 96 91
2
Lake Fk R bl Moon Lk nr Mountain Home
APR-JUL 36 46 53 93% 61 73 57
Currant Ck Reservoir Inflow2
APR-JUL 8.1 12 15.1 127% 18.6 24 11.9
City Ck nr SLC
APR-JUL 1.86 2.9 3.8 72% 4.8 6.4 5.3
Bear R bl Stewart Dam
MAR-JUL 24 53 80 63% 112 170 126
MAR-SEP 26 60 90 65% 127 192 139
APR-JUL 14.9 43 70 61% 104 166 115
APR-SEP 14.2 44 73 60% 110 177 122
Pine Ck nr Escalante
APR-JUL 0.43 0.87 1.25 77% 1.7 2.5 1.63
Chalk Ck at Coalville
APR-JUL 3.4 11.1 21 81% 31 46 26
Ferron Ck (Upper Station) nr Ferron
APR-JUL 17.1 22 26 81% 31 37 32
Dell Fk nr SLC
APR-JUL 1.17 2 2.8 78% 3.6 5 3.6
Vernon Ck nr Vernon
APR-JUL 0.11 0.31 0.5 68% 0.73 1.16 0.74
Emigration Ck nr SLC
APR-JUL 0.25 0.82 1.4 61% 2.1 3.5 2.3
Beaver R nr Beaver
APR-JUL 5.2 12.2 17 98% 22 29 17.4
2
Green R at Green River, UT
APR-JUL 1110 1620 2020 77% 2470 3200 2610
2
Duchesne R nr Randlett
APR-JUL 119 199 265 104% 340 470 255
Salina Ck nr Emery
APR-JUL 2.3 3.9 4.9 88% 5.9 7.4 5.6
2
Duchesne R at Myton
APR-JUL 114 181 235 109% 295 400 215
Rockport Reservoir Inflow
APR-JUL 20 50 70 80% 90 120 87
2
Rock Ck nr Mountain Home
APR-JUL 54 67 77 99% 87 104 78
Muddy Ck nr Emery
APR-JUL 6.5 9.6 12 74% 14.7 19.2 16.3
Bear R nr UT-WY State Line
APR-JUL 53 74 88 87% 102 123 101
APR-SEP 59 82 98 86% 114 137 114
Weber R nr Coalville
APR-JUL 22 54 75 81% 96 128 93
S Willow Ck nr Grantsville
APR-JUL 0.31 1.08 1.6 64% 2.1 2.9 2.5
Lost Ck Reservoir Inflow
APR-JUL 0.1 4.1 6.9 73% 9.6 13.6 9.5
2
Strawberry R nr Duchesne
APR-JUL 27 50 70 132% 93 133 53
Coal Ck nr Cedar City
APR-JUL 1.79 7.3 11 88% 14.7 20 12.5
Parleys Ck nr SLC
APR-JUL 2.3 4.6 6.6 76% 9 13.1 8.7
Flaming Gorge Resvr Local Bl Fontenelle 2

Echo Reservoir Inflow


APR-JUL 16.8 59 88 73% 117 160 120
2
Duchesne R ab Knight Diversion
APR-JUL 108 138 160 99% 184 220 162

1) 90% And 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% And 5%


2) Forecasts are For unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent On management of upstream reservoirs And diversions
Report Created: 3/3/2022 5:20:51 PM
Basinwide Summary: March 1, 2022
Reservoir Storage Summary For the End of February 2022
(Medians based On 1991-2020 reference period)
Current Last Year Median Capacity Current % Last Year % Median % Current % Last Year %
Bear
(KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) Capacity Capacity Capacity Median Median
Hyrum Reservoir 12.1 12.1 11.0 15.3 79% 79% 72% 110% 110%
Woodruff Creek 1.8 2.7 2.4 4.0 44% 68% 60% 73% 113%
Bear Lake 554.6 807.7 482.9 1302.0 43% 62% 37% 115% 167%
Porcupine Reservoir 5.4 7.5 7.8 11.3 48% 66% 69% 69% 96%
Woodruff Narrows Reservoir 12.8 25.4 38.4 57.3 22% 44% 67% 33% 66%
Montpelier Reservoir 1.6 2.4 2.0 4.0 40% 60% 50% 80% 120%
Basin Index 588.3 857.9 544.5 1393.9 42% 62% 39% 108% 158%
# of reservoirs 6 6 6 6 6

Current Last Year Median Capacity Current % Last Year % Median % Current % Last Year %
Weber-Ogden
(KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) Capacity Capacity Capacity Median Median
East Canyon Reservoir 28.0 31.9 35.2 49.5 56% 65% 71% 79% 91%
Willard Bay 86.2 141.6 137.1 215.0 40% 66% 64% 63% 103%
Causey Reservoir 4.5 4.0 4.3 7.1 64% 56% 61% 106% 93%
Pineview Reservoir 29.0 56.2 55.3 110.1 26% 51% 50% 52% 102%
Echo Reservoir 26.4 27.5 43.5 73.9 36% 37% 59% 61% 63%
Rockport Reservoir 31.9 34.4 37.4 60.9 52% 56% 61% 85% 92%
Lost Creek Reservoir 9.9 14.8 13.8 22.5 44% 66% 61% 72% 107%
Smith And Morehouse Reservoir 4.7 2.4 4.3 8.1 58% 30% 53% 108% 56%
Basin Index 220.6 312.7 330.9 547.1 40% 57% 60% 67% 95%
# of reservoirs 8 8 8 8 8

Current Last Year Median Capacity Current % Last Year % Median % Current % Last Year %
Northeastern Uintas
(KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) Capacity Capacity Capacity Median Median
Meeks Cabin Reservoir 11.4 5.0 10.8 32.5 35% 15% 33% 106% 47%
Flaming Gorge Reservoir 2905.1 3145.1 3107.0 3749.0 77% 84% 83% 94% 101%
Stateline Reservoir 5.7 3.8 5.7 12.0 47% 32% 48% 100% 67%
Steinaker Reservoir 10.5 7.7 20.9 33.4 31% 23% 63% 50% 37%
Red Fleet Reservoir 11.0 16.1 19.2 25.7 43% 63% 75% 57% 84%
Basin Index 2943.7 3177.8 3163.6 3852.6 76% 82% 82% 93% 100%
# of reservoirs 5 5 5 5 5

Current Last Year Median Capacity Current % Last Year % Median % Current % Last Year %
Tooele Valley-Vernon Creek
(KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) Capacity Capacity Capacity Median Median
Settlement Canyon Reservoir 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 35% 50% 66% 53% 76%
Grantsville Reservoir 1.9 1.7 1.9 3.3 59% 51% 58% 102% 88%
Basin Index 2.3 2.2 2.6 4.3 53% 51% 60% 89% 85%
# of reservoirs 2 2 2 2 2

Current Last Year Median Capacity Current % Last Year % Median % Current % Last Year %
Duchesne
(KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) Capacity Capacity Capacity Median Median
Big Sand Wash Reservoir 21.4 15.6 25.7 83% 61%
Moon Lake Reservoir 25.4 13.1 21.9 35.8 71% 37% 61% 116% 60%
Currant Creek Reservoir 14.8 14.7 14.9 15.5 96% 95% 96% 100% 99%
Upper Stillwater Reservoir 8.7 3.8 9.2 32.5 27% 12% 28% 95% 41%
Strawberry Reservoir 833.4 925.3 844.4 1105.9 75% 84% 76% 99% 110%
Starvation Reservoir 139.7 150.7 143.3 164.1 85% 92% 87% 98% 105%
Basin Index 1043.4 1123.1 1033.7 1379.5 76% 81% 76% 99% 107%
# of reservoirs 6 6 5 5 5

Current Last Year Median Capacity Current % Last Year % Median % Current % Last Year %
Provo-Utah Lake-Jordan
(KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) Capacity Capacity Capacity Median Median
Utah Lake 522.8 661.7 732.2 870.9 60% 76% 84% 71% 90%
Deer Creek Reservoir 120.4 119.2 121.9 149.7 80% 80% 81% 99% 98%
Jordanelle Reservoir 153.5 210.8 224.8 314.0 49% 67% 72% 68% 94%
Basin Index 796.7 991.7 1078.9 1334.6 60% 74% 81% 74% 92%
# of reservoirs 3 3 3 3 3

Current Last Year Median Capacity Current % Last Year % Median % Current % Last Year %
San Pitch
(KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) Capacity Capacity Capacity Median Median
Gunnison Reservoir 0.0 0.0 8.2 20.3 0% 0% 40% 0% 0%
Basin Index 8.2 20.3 0% 0% 40% 0% 0%
# of reservoirs 1 1 1 1 1

Current Last Year Median Capacity Current % Last Year % Median % Current % Last Year %
Price-San Rafael
(KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) Capacity Capacity Capacity Median Median
Cleveland Lake 0.1 1.1 5.4 2% 21%
Scofield Reservoir 19.0 34.4 26.7 65.8 29% 52% 41% 71% 129%
Joes Valley Reservoir 21.9 38.2 40.3 61.6 35% 62% 65% 54% 95%
Miller Flat Reservoir 1.6 1.4 5.2 31% 27%
Millsite 3.3 4.3 9.4 16.7 20% 26% 56% 36% 45%
Huntington North Reservoir 2.9 4.1 3.7 4.2 70% 98% 88% 79% 111%
Basin Index 48.9 83.5 80.1 158.9 31% 53% 54% 59% 101%
# of reservoirs 6 6 4 4 4

Current Last Year Median Capacity Current % Last Year % Median % Current % Last Year %
Upper Sevier
(KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) Capacity Capacity Capacity Median Median
Piute Reservoir 18.0 31.5 50.2 71.8 25% 44% 70% 36% 63%
Panguitch Lake 4.5 15.7 10.8 22.3 20% 71% 48% 42% 146%
Otter Creek Reservoir 23.3 30.3 32.8 52.5 44% 58% 62% 71% 92%
Sevier Bridge Reservoir 69.3 93.5 124.6 236.0 29% 40% 53% 56% 75%
Basin Index 115.2 171.1 218.4 382.6 30% 45% 57% 53% 78%
# of reservoirs 4 4 4 4 4

Current Last Year Median Capacity Current % Last Year % Median % Current % Last Year %
Southeastern Utah
(KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) Capacity Capacity Capacity Median Median
Ken's Lake 1.0 0.6 1.2 2.3 44% 27% 53% 82% 50%
Basin Index 1.0 0.6 1.2 2.3 44% 27% 53% 82% 50%
# of reservoirs 1 1 1 1 1

Current Last Year Median Capacity Current % Last Year % Median % Current % Last Year %
Beaver
(KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) Capacity Capacity Capacity Median Median
Minersville Reservoir 6.4 8.1 10.7 23.3 28% 35% 46% 60% 76%
Basin Index 6.4 8.1 10.7 23.3 28% 35% 46% 60% 76%
# of reservoirs 1 1 1 1 1

Current Last Year Median Capacity Current % Last Year % Median % Current % Last Year %
Southwestern Utah
(KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) Capacity Capacity Capacity Median Median
Quail Creek 28.0 27.1 31.2 40.0 70% 68% 78% 90% 87%
Upper Enterprise 1.5 3.5 3.4 10.0 15% 35% 34% 45% 102%
Sand Hollow Reservoir 41.4 48.5 50.0 83% 97%
Gunlock 4.9 4.9 7.2 10.4 47% 47% 69% 68% 68%
Kolob Reservoir 3.1 2.8 5.6 55% 50%
Lower Enterprise 1.3 0.9 0.8 2.6 51% 35% 31% 166% 113%
Basin Index 80.3 87.7 42.6 118.6 68% 74% 68% 84% 85%
# of reservoirs 6 6 4 4 4

Current Last Year Median Capacity Current % Last Year % Median % Current % Last Year %
State of Utah
(KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) Capacity Capacity Capacity Median Median
Piute Reservoir 18.0 31.5 50.2 71.8 25% 44% 70% 36% 63%
Settlement Canyon Reservoir 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 35% 50% 66% 53% 76%
Big Sand Wash Reservoir 21.4 15.6 25.7 83% 61%
Gunnison Reservoir 0.0 0.0 8.2 20.3 0% 0% 40% 0% 0%
Woodruff Creek 1.8 2.7 2.4 4.0 44% 68% 60% 73% 113%
Flaming Gorge Reservoir 2905.1 3145.1 3107.0 3749.0 77% 84% 83% 94% 101%
Miller Flat Reservoir 1.6 1.4 5.2 31% 27%
Deer Creek Reservoir 120.4 119.2 121.9 149.7 80% 80% 81% 99% 98%
Stateline Reservoir 5.7 3.8 5.7 12.0 47% 32% 48% 100% 67%
Red Fleet Reservoir 11.0 16.1 19.2 25.7 43% 63% 75% 57% 84%
Porcupine Reservoir 5.4 7.5 7.8 11.3 48% 66% 69% 69% 96%
Montpelier Reservoir 1.6 2.4 2.0 4.0 40% 60% 50% 80% 120%
Huntington North Reservoir 2.9 4.1 3.7 4.2 70% 98% 88% 79% 111%
Jordanelle Reservoir 153.5 210.8 224.8 314.0 49% 67% 72% 68% 94%
Smith And Morehouse Reservoir 4.7 2.4 4.3 8.1 58% 30% 53% 108% 56%
East Canyon Reservoir 28.0 31.9 35.2 49.5 56% 65% 71% 79% 91%
Grantsville Reservoir 1.9 1.7 1.9 3.3 59% 51% 58% 102% 88%
Moon Lake Reservoir 25.4 13.1 21.9 35.8 71% 37% 61% 116% 60%
Upper Enterprise 1.5 3.5 3.4 10.0 15% 35% 34% 45% 102%
Pineview Reservoir 29.0 56.2 55.3 110.1 26% 51% 50% 52% 102%
Upper Stillwater Reservoir 8.7 3.8 9.2 32.5 27% 12% 28% 95% 41%
Ken's Lake 1.0 0.6 1.2 2.3 44% 27% 53% 82% 50%
Millsite 3.3 4.3 9.4 16.7 20% 26% 56% 36% 45%
Echo Reservoir 26.4 27.5 43.5 73.9 36% 37% 59% 61% 63%
Rockport Reservoir 31.9 34.4 37.4 60.9 52% 56% 61% 85% 92%
Gunlock 4.9 4.9 7.2 10.4 47% 47% 69% 68% 68%
Otter Creek Reservoir 23.3 30.3 32.8 52.5 44% 58% 62% 71% 92%
Quail Creek 28.0 27.1 31.2 40.0 70% 68% 78% 90% 87%
Lost Creek Reservoir 9.9 14.8 13.8 22.5 44% 66% 61% 72% 107%
Willard Bay 86.2 141.6 137.1 215.0 40% 66% 64% 63% 103%
Cleveland Lake 0.1 1.1 5.4 2% 21%
Minersville Reservoir 6.4 8.1 10.7 23.3 28% 35% 46% 60% 76%
Currant Creek Reservoir 14.8 14.7 14.9 15.5 96% 95% 96% 100% 99%
Strawberry Reservoir 833.4 925.3 844.4 1105.9 75% 84% 76% 99% 110%
Steinaker Reservoir 10.5 7.7 20.9 33.4 31% 23% 63% 50% 37%
Starvation Reservoir 139.7 150.7 143.3 164.1 85% 92% 87% 98% 105%
Sand Hollow Reservoir 41.4 48.5 50.0 83% 97%
Bear Lake 554.6 807.7 482.9 1302.0 43% 62% 37% 115% 167%
Woodruff Narrows Reservoir 12.8 25.4 38.4 57.3 22% 44% 67% 33% 66%
Kolob Reservoir 3.1 2.8 5.6 55% 50%
Meeks Cabin Reservoir 11.4 5.0 10.8 32.5 35% 15% 33% 106% 47%
Hyrum Reservoir 12.1 12.1 11.0 15.3 79% 79% 72% 110% 110%
Causey Reservoir 4.5 4.0 4.3 7.1 64% 56% 61% 106% 93%
Scofield Reservoir 19.0 34.4 26.7 65.8 29% 52% 41% 71% 129%
Joes Valley Reservoir 21.9 38.2 40.3 61.6 35% 62% 65% 54% 95%
Utah Lake 522.8 661.7 732.2 870.9 60% 76% 84% 71% 90%
Sevier Bridge Reservoir 69.3 93.5 124.6 236.0 29% 40% 53% 56% 75%
Panguitch Lake 4.5 15.7 10.8 22.3 20% 71% 48% 42% 146%
Lower Enterprise 1.3 0.9 0.8 2.6 51% 35% 31% 166% 113%
Basin Index 5846.6 6816.3 6515.4 9218.0 63% 74% 71% 89% 104%
# of reservoirs 49 49 44 44 44
Water Supply Outlook Reports
and Federal - State - Private Cooperative Snow Surveys

For more water supply and resource management information, contact: your local Natural Resources
Conservation Service Office or:
Snow Surveys
245 N Jimmy Doolittle Rd, SLC Utah, 84116. Phone (385)285-3118
Email Address: jordan.clayton@usda.gov

How forecasts are made

Most of the annual streamflow in the western United States originates as snowfall that has accumulated in the
mountains during the winter and early spring. As the snowpack accumulates, hydrologists estimate the runoff
that will occur when it melts. Measurements of snow water equivalent at selected manual snowcourses and
automated SNOTEL sites, along with precipitation, antecedent streamflow, and indices of the El Niño /
Southern Oscillation are used in statistical and simulation models to prepare runoff forecasts. Unless otherwise
specified, all forecasts are for flows that would occur naturally without any upstream influences.

Forecasts of any kind, of course, are not perfect. Streamflow forecast uncertainty arises from three primary
sources: (1) uncertain knowledge of future weather conditions, (2) uncertainty in the forecasting procedure,
and (3) errors in the data. The forecast, therefore, must be interpreted not as a single value but rather as a
range of values with specific probabilities of occurrence. The middle of the range is expressed by the 50%
exceedance probability forecast, for which there is a 50% chance that the actual flow will be above, and a 50%
chance that the actual flow will be below, this value. To describe the expected range around this 50% value,
four other forecasts are provided, two smaller values (90% and 70% exceedance probability) and two larger
values (30%, and 10% exceedance probability). For example, there is a 90% chance that the actual flow will
be more than the 90% exceedance probability forecast. The others can be interpreted similarly.

The wider the spread among these values, the more uncertain the forecast. As the season progresses,
forecasts become more accurate, primarily because a greater portion of the future weather conditions become
known; this is reflected by a narrowing of the range around the 50% exceedance probability forecast. Users
should take this uncertainty into consideration when making operational decisions by selecting forecasts
corresponding to the level of risk they are willing to assume about the amount of water to be expected. If users
anticipate receiving a lesser supply of water, or if they wish to increase their chances of having an adequate
supply of water for their operations, they may want to base their decisions on the 90% or 70% exceedance
probability forecasts, or something in between. On the other hand, if users are concerned about receiving too
much water (for example, threat of flooding), they may want to base their decisions on the 30% or 10%
exceedance probability forecasts, or something in between. Regardless of the forecast value users choose for
operations, they should be prepared to deal with either more or less water. (Users should remember that even
if the 90% exceedance probability forecast is used, there is still a 10% chance of receiving less than this
amount.) By using the exceedance probability information, users can easily determine the chances of receiving
more or less water.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers. If you believe you experienced discrimination when obtaining services from USDA, participating in a USDA
program, or participating in a program that receives financial assistance from USDA, you may file a complaint with USDA. Information about how to file a discrimination complaint is available from the
Office of the Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights. USDA prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex
(including gender identity and expression), marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, political beliefs, genetic information, reprisal, or because all or part of an individual’s
income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) To file a complaint of discrimination, complete, sign, and mail a program discrimination complaint
form, available at any USDA office location or online, or write to: USDA Office of the Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights 1400 Independence Avenue, SW. Washington, DC 20250‐9410
Or call toll free at (866) 632‐9992 (voice) to obtain additional information, the appropriate office or to request documents. Individuals who are deaf, hard of hearing, or have speech disabilities may contact
USDA through the Federal Relay service at (800) 877‐8339 or (800) 845‐6136 (in Spanish). USDA is an equal opportunity provider, employer, and lender. Persons with disabilities who require alternative
means for communication of program information (e.g., Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720‐2600 (voice and TDD).
Issued by Released by
Terry Cosby Emily Fife
Chief, Natural Resources Conservation Service State Conservationist
U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation
Service Salt Lake City, Utah
Prepared by
Snow Survey Staff:
Jordan Clayton, Data Collection Officer
Troy Brosten, Assistant Supervisor
Kent Sutcliffe, Soil Scientist
Dave Eiriksson, Hydrologist
Joel Burley, Hydrologist
Justin Byington, Hydrologist
Doug Neff, Electronic Technician

YOU MAY OBTAIN THIS PRODUCT AS WELL AS CURENT SNOW, PRECIPITATION,


TEMPERATURE AND SOIL MOISTURE, RESERVOIR, SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX, AND
OTHER DATA BY VISITING OUR WEB SITE @:
https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/main/ut/snow/

Snow Survey, NRCS, USDA


245 North Jimmy Doolittle Road
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(385) 285-3118

Utah Water Supply


Outlook Report
Natural Resources Conservation Service
Salt Lake City, UT

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