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Conflict Studies Notes WS2017-18
Conflict Studies Notes WS2017-18
- The concept of security has been undergoing great transformations - it is getting deeper (includes more areas of
security, outlined below), as well as wider (includes more actors than just another state - e.g. non state actors from
outside or within a state)
- Nowe we understand security as not just theabsence of military threat / war, but also the absence of threats in all
forms, like pandemics, environmental degradation, terrorism, etc.
- The state = the thing to be secured = the referent object
Security as a concept
- Has a wide range of possible definitions, from simple mantras to deep philosophical and meta-theoretical reflections
○ = military security, social security... = many forms
- Security is a term that is emotionally-loaded - it is an essential part of how it works in practice
- Security studies are actually concerned more with insecurity than security
○ = an analysis of insecurity is a feature that characterizes security studies
○ Many symbols / pillars of security, in order to enforce it, are agens of insecurity -- e.g. a policeman / soldier is expected to
maintain security, but often does it by harming / killing people
- There are dangers in the concept of security - e.g. dangerous application of the security logic (nuclear deterrence, state coercion...)
○ The securitization of a problem might lead to negative consequences
○ e.g. the holocaust was based on a sick idea of "securitization" - cleansing the society of some of its members will help make it
more secure
○ = it is necessary to look "behind" the language of security. We should try to look deeper and find the reason behind the
language / securitizing action
- The Copenhagen school of security studies sees the development of security / security studies as both widening and deepening:
- There is also a notion of negative vs positive security --- is security only used as a tool to keep something bad away from us (negative),
or does it have some positive "externalities" (positive)
- War and peace are not just elements of IR / security studies, but also two deifning categorie of what we may call "the Human
Condition"; they are the two extremes / poles, which we may use to describe our individual state / societal state
- = these words are not invented just as parts of science or research, but are a part of our lives - situations that people live in /
face
- Both of these terms have been / are widely misused
- The term "war" is also often used to securitize an issue -- e.g. the "War on drugs" -- the word war turns this fight against
drugs into a battlefield; the "war on Terror" suffers to a similar problem
○ If I am a politician who wants to draw attention to something, I call it a war on something (war on child abuse / terror /
drugs / poverty...). By doing this, I am opening the solution of the conflict to means used in conventional wars
Philosophical perspective
- Different concepts of the state of nature (the original state that mankind existed in):
○ We have two competing view on how this state of nature looks / looked like
1. A "paradise-like" state of nature -- a golden age, supported by Plato and Rousseau -- Plato: the theology of human
development is a development from the golden age, to the more detrimental stages of human civilization; Rousseau: a
state where people were free of the dictate of property and materialism, which ended with the introduction of
"ownership"
i. This seems to have lost its potency on contemporary political philosophy, as it was sort of "disorganized", with
no "ruler"
ii. For realists, the Cold War was something like a paradise-like state of nature, because it was something that they
could perfectly apply their vision to
2. Homo homini lupus -- Hobbes -- the state of nature is close to a state of chaos; ungoverned state with relationships
dominated by brutality and instability. This is what happens when
i. In this view, a failed state, whose institutions have fallen, returns to this basal state of nature from whence it
came, and people start beghaving like animals to one another
ii. The existence of institutions and rules is what keeps people "out" from this state
○ No matter how positive or negative these theories are towards the development / state of the society, pretty much all
include the idea that societies should try to evolve from their natural state, as it is seen as something dangerous
/unhealthy
- Conceptualization of theory (how human history develops)
1. Cyclical -- typical for realism -- a society does not really evolve lineailry / exponentially, it does not get better, but just
sort of "repeats itself". Nothing really changes in how states interact with each other. The danger of the state of war is
always implicitly present
2. Teleological -- marxism, liberalism, critical theory -- they assume that history develops from a certain stage to another
state, and the final stat eof human development - "telos" - can be something better. There are different conceptions of
what telos actually is and how to get to it, but the general idea for all these theories is the same: we can expect that
societies will, after a few stages of development, reach its final "goal"
○ = all theories except for realism thus believe that there is a development in IR / in the states. For these theories, the
history of human devleopment is a journey from a state of war to a state of peace.
- What concrete parts of the individual units can be contributed to peace / conflict?
○ Elements contributing to peaceful relationships. What may prevent us from engaging in a war?:
○ INDIVIDUAL
▪ The human nature -- we are still here as a species, we have managed to survive and even thrive throughout
history. We could conclude that we are naturally inclide towards cooperation. In our nature, there is something
that makes it possible for us to live in peace.
□ On the other hand, sometimes we refuse to cooperate, refuse to be peaceful, and that is also part of our
nature
▪ Socialization -- it is now a pretty-much wideaspread norm to socialize people towards cooperation and mutual
understanding. It is now very rare to have societies, where people are directly raised to be conflictual with other
societies
□ However, this was not always true / does not always have to be true. If we look just a couple decades into
the past, at nazim or then communism in Europe, we were lead towards a much less peaceful form of
socialization / a violent form of development on a pretty massive scale.
▪ Rationality -- we have something special that no other creature posesses, at least in the scope like humans
posess, and that is rationality. This element appears in multiple theories, especially in idealism / liberalism, which
basically says: It is stupid to be violent - it does not pay off; wars are irrational, why should we wage them?
□ There may, however, be a problem with this, as sometimes, the most rational option leads to violence. It
was definitely a huge aprt of the human / state environment in the past -- war and conquests were
considered completely regular methods of foregin policy; pillaging, stealing etc. of human behvaior on the
individual level
▪ Perception -- a possibility to be empathic - to think about others, about what they want, what they feel, what are
their ideas / values, etc., and taking that into account when making decisions. We are capable of respecting the
others via perceiving their preferences. On the other hand, this may also be seen as a cause for violent purposes.
□ There is something as "misperception" - we see people with a certain "optic". We may see people in a
skewed way, influenced by our cultural / ethnic / religious background, or misinterpret their actions.
○ STATE
▪ Elements contributing to peaceful relationships
□ Institutions -- in most theories, there is a prevalent idea that institutions are a basis for cooperation and
peaceful coexistence, which help hold the system together
□ Democracy -- of course, not all states are demoracies. But there is a strong notion that democracies are
much less likely to wage wars than non-democratic states. So the promotion and spread of democracy,
which also happens to be one of the goals of the UN and other intergovenrmental organizations, is seen as
the best way for conflict prevention / overcoming conflictual conditions (because empirical data shows
that democracies are very unlikely to go into wars with each other).
□ Wealth -- societies which are richer tend to behave less violently. This claim has many holes in it, but
generally speaking, wealth and welfare helps prevent conflicts (out of fear of losing it)
□ Communication -- the mroe we communicate, the more we know about each other, the more
understanding adn open we are, and thus the less likely we are to engage in armed conflicts
▪ Elements hampering peaceful relationships (-- opposite terms to the ones outlined above)
□ Manipulation by elites -- the state can be manipulated by its leaders / elites to enter a war, either internally
or externally
□ Ideology -- can be dangerous especially in connection with elite manipulation
□ Control of resources -- the crux of the matter is who controls resources. If this distribution is largely
unequal, it may be a source of conflict
□ Identity politics -- when identity politics become part of the communication, we may not be reaching
proper results. People often fail to look at issues from standpoints other than their own; this may lead to
communication of false news, propaganda, racist ideas etc.
○ SYSTEM
▪ Elements contributing to peaceful relationships
□ International trade -- it is helpful to prevent conflict; countries that do business together are not likely to
disrupt that business over a small quarrel
Theoretical frameworks + theories that focus on the individual stages + political practices used during these stages
1. Positive / stable peace
○ Johan Galtung - invented the term positive peace
○ Ken Booth (Welsh school) - peace is not peace as we traditionally imagined it - not only the absence of violence - but
also an opportunity to emancipate the individual
○ Security community - e.g. EU - within member states of the EU, war is unthinkable
○ Integration theory - states that are integrated in some sort of union tend to not be conflictuous with one another
○ Post-conflict reconstruction
2. Negative / unstable peace = no actual violence between the interactions of actors, but violence somehow lurks from behind
the peaceful situation; it is something that needs to be reckoned with before this potential threat grows
○ Regime theory - a concept of how to overcome a conflict; similar to security community, but less "ambitious"
○ Complex interdependence - imagines the stabilization of potentially problematic situations through mutual
interdependencies
○ Theory of hegemonic stability - how the system might be stabilized for at least a while in ist development, via the rise
of a hegemon who will stabilize the other actors; however the power of the hegemon will end, and then the cycle
begins anew with a new hegemon
○ (Classical) realism - conflict is only present but rather as a potential; imagines a world where everybody needs to be
afriad that war will break out; prevent that through diplomacy etc
○ Conflict resolution
○ Structural prevention = focuses on those cases / states / social groups that have a potentnial for a violent conflict to
break out, and uses measures like development alssistance / economic cooperation etc. to prevent it
○ Direct prevention = focues on those spots "on the map" where violence is just about to break out - e.g. places with
demonstrations against the government etc. A primary diplomatic instrument that tries to decrease tension and open
doors to negotiations
3. Crisis = violence is already present, but still not the main way of how ppl interact - diplomacy / political interaction still exist
○ Neorealism = the world is in a state of constant crisis; see violence as a normal part of life
○ (Neo)realism = a world always on the edge of using violence; violence extended to the realm of language (?); since the
world is organized around certain hegemons, it is inherently violent - not necessary physical, but definitely at least
verbal
○ Postmodern theory
○ Crisis diplomacy = de-escalation of conflict to open doors to negotiations and diplomacy
4. War
○ Offensive realism = states are never satisfied with what they have; a state will never stop trying to acquire more power
○ Marxism-leninism = constant war between the proletariat and suppressed classes
○ Peacemaking = diplomatic procedures trying to bring the parties at war to a negotiating table / trying to decrease the
fatalities
○ Peace enforcement
= all of these theories of course addres all these stages, and all other thing in IR, but some are better for interpreting certain stages
than others
= a selection of theoretical and practical concepts that somehow deal with the challenges of maintaining conflict in inter -
state relations
Definition of conflict I.
- Dispute > contest > conflict
○ Dispute - disagreement about an issue; e.g. "your tie is ugly" vs. "no it is not"
○ Contests - transforms the dispute into something more substantial; e.g. putting the ugliness of the tie
○ Conflict - goes even a bit further; more permanent and serious; e.g. putting together a group of students protesting
against the professor wearing the tie, the professor would complain to the head of the school etc.
- "Conflict is an antagonistic relationship etween two and more parties over intractable divergencies regarding what is
mutually signiificant to the parties invovled" (Rioux & Redekop)
○ A relationship = meaning it is something intentional; a relation important for their coexistence
○ Intractable divergencies = it is hard to resolve
○ Mutually significant = needs to be a shared assessment of the value of the divergence / issue that stands at the core
of the conflict
- Conflicts can be held over almost anything:
○ Interests (usually materiially defined; rationally-constructed - meaning we can decide to not have an interest)
○ Needs (unlike an interest, we cannot decide we do not need a "need")
▪ Both material, like the need to eat, and immaterial, like the need to be loved / appreciated...
○ Identity (conflicts concerning "who we are" rather than "what we want"; can concern religion, territory...)
○ Desires (stand somewhere between the first two / three; it is not a need, ergo we can have deisres beyond our need;
we can have deisres that we define as our interest, but policially, we need to cover them with a rational cover; may
also be connected with identity - someone may have the desire to rule over other people etc.; closely connected to
the emotional state)
○ Values (the socially-agreed-upon norms that are broadly established; osciallates between the rationl and emotional;
often connected to identity; e.g. national pride)
○ Rights (not limited to the legal rights, but also what we consider legitimate - rights that we should have)
▪ Gives you an upper hand if you argue with rights - e.g. China and the South China Sea
○ Divides out perception of conflict into 3 layers - presenting, underlying and intractable
▪ In the presenting layer, we have the aspects that are demonstrated "in the public" - the conflict situation, the
parties and their clash over something - over rights / power / position. In the clash, the actors try to extend /
preserve their position of influence, gain power (either to be at the forefront or behind pulling the strings), or
rights.
▪ Underlying aspects: works with the interests of states / social groups. There is typically a rational calculation
involved of what I want to achieve. In terms of values, it would be a fight to preserve the things that define us /
are a part of us. Memory: people can have conflicts about the interpretation of history (e.g. Germany and
○ RATIONAL CALCULATIONS:
○ (armed) conflict as a result of conscious, deliberate calculation of rational actors
○ the possibility of ending conflicts related to specific moments in the decision-making diagram
○ direct consequences for the intervention by outside actors
ARMED CONFLICT
Requireemnts for a definition
- If we want to study conflict throughout time, we need a definition that can be applied accross histrical periods
- This definition needs to have a functional flexibility, as conflicts vary
- Lack of geographic conditioning -- a definition cannot be geographically-discriminating
○ e.g. typical definitions say that an armed conflict is between two states / governments, or a state and a separatist
group. However, in Africa, there are many armed conflicts between wholly non-state actors in which the gvt is not at
all involved
- Preciseness, in the sense that we are at least able to say when the conflict starts and when it ends
Armed conflicts research projects
A. Correlates of War – CoW (www.correlatesofwar.org)
○ Studies conflict since 1816
○ Initial definition: War is a conflict whose party is at least one state (gvt) and which led to a minimum of 1000 battle-
related fatalities
Classify conflicts into: wars (iterstate, extra-systemic, intrastate), and militrized interstate conflicts
Resources in general
- A variety of natural resources - not just oil or minerals, but wood, drinking water, sand, soil, animals, air...
- It has to be untouched by man to be considered a resource, a scarce commodity, that people can use for sth else (a
functional need / a need based on superstition - e.g. rhino hunting)
- We distinguish between renewable resources (plants, sun) and non-renewable resources (minerals, fossil fuels, soil)
Background
- This presentation will focus on Non-international Armed Conflicts (NIACs) and Arms Transfers (= Arms Trade)
○ Transfers are considered the biggest parts of Arms trade, so they are often used synonimously
○ Why just NIACs? Out of 49 conflicts in 2016, 36 were NIACs. Also, aside from being the msot wide-spread forms of conflict,
they are also the least regulated ones
- 20 largest arms importers in 2012-16
○ India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, China, Algeria, Turkey, Australia, Iraq, Pakistan, Vietnam, Egypt
- The countries with the most NIACs
○ India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, Egypt
- = an overlap between having conflicts and importing arms
- Nicaragua Case -- Nicaragua vs USA from 1986
○ Nicaragua found out that the rebels in their country were being armed by the US
○ They brought it in front of the International Court of Justice
○ However, "in international law tere are no rules whereby the level of armaments of a sovereign State can be limited, and
this principle is valid for all States without exception"
○ = important piece of court law, because it was the first time that the ICJ addressed the principle of non-intervention; the
conclusion was that
Conclusion
- A lot of confidence is being put in the role of the State -- we keep beleiving that once the arms reach the state, they will not be
used illegally, but that is often not the case
- The link between arms trade, peace and security needs to be further investigated and clarified
- Another questions - are arms really necessary to create stability / necessary at all?
- Sending arms abroad is becoming a new way to fight conflicts (e.g. drone attacks are very close to armed conflicts, yet the legal
sphere is still centered around boots on the ground, which are often not employed in conflicts even if drones are)
- Current legal approach vs. practical effects
- Recently, in the discipline of conflict studies, there has been wide-spread influence in how violence works as a method for waging
conflict, and a general shift towards the idea that no matter how much armed conflicts are relevant, we also need to focus on non-
violent approaches (protests agains unpopular governments etc.)
Non-violence as an instrument
- = an instrument of an active political strategy against a political regime, with the aim to enforce certain specific demands of (a
systemic nature)
- Non-violence in the physical sense -- people are not physically attacked (some people, like Galtung, would argue that volence is a
much wider term, and even what we labels as non-violence could be seen as violence)
- Questionable edges which stretch the limits of non-violence towards violent behavior (e.g. if I crash a police car without hurting
the policeman, is it still non-violent or violent?)
Theoreticians of non-violence
- Mahatma Gandhi
○ Goal was to influence the psychology and morality of the opponent
○ "what we attack with a non-violent campaign are the minds of the opponent"
○ If we get violently attacked but do not react,
- Richard Gregg - The Power of Nonviolence (1934)
○ A concept of moral jiu-jitu - attacking the moral 'balance' of the opponent
○ We are engaged in a combat in which we try to throw our opponent off-balance morally / psychologically
- Gene Sharp - The Politics of Nonviolent Action (1973)
○ Took a more systematic and empirical testing of non-violent metods
○ Stands at the start of empirical research of non-violent conflict
○ Founded the Albert Einstein Insitution in 1983 -- now experts in non-violent approaches
Conflict management
- = a set of instruments aimed at reducing or limiting the itnensity of an ongoing conflict, without the ambition to olve it, t ypically with
a participation of a third party
- = a way to handle disputes
- = manages the consequences of the conflict
- Includes diplomatic, judicial and military instrument used by a wide variety of actors (typically states and international in stitutions; in
some cases some other authority, like a religious figure or improtant individual)
Diplomatic instruments for conflict management
- = negotiations between parties to a conflict and other involved actors without automatic legal implications
- Fully dependent on the willingness of the actors partaking in the conflict
A. Negotiation / diplomatic instruments
○ Are the most usual instruments of conflict management, mainly because of the low cost / threshold / risk for being able to get
involved in a conflict
○ Can take the form of consultations (targeted clarification of the roots of a conflict)
B. Theoretical undertanding of negotiations
○ Puzzle-solving -- attempt to rationally solve a dispute; may be built on principles of game theory - counts with predefined
interests of the parties; looking for a rational outcome / compromise respecting all parties
○ Bargaining game -- attempt to put forward my own strategy and pushing my opponents into a particular compromise; trying to
achieve the best possible outcome for me while resolving the conflict
○ Organizational management -- stakes in the "game" are shared between the parties; taking into account multiple levels of
negotiation - besides the main "international" negotiation (high policy), there is a lower level on the national / home level
(politicians, voters...)
○ Diplomatic politics -- based on the idea that conflict is not limited in duration or scope, but is inherently present in the
international system. By negotiating, we are simply trying to achieve the natural development of my policy interest. The main
goal is not to "solve" the problem, but via interacting with my opponent, I attempt to acquire new information, gather
intelligence, and setp forward with my ideas
C. Good offices and mediation
○ Good offices -- an attempt to bring conflicting parties to a negotiation table. Usually a third part is actively seeking negotiation,
but then does not push the actors to adopt its views. It simply passes informations and positions, but does not pass verdictsor
give solutions. It only does what the parties of a conflict allow it to do. The third party is not a party in the conflict, simply a
party in the negotiation.
▪ The 3rd party can often be the UN High Commissioner
○ Mediation -- the third party proposes its own ideas or solutions. Again, the mediator is not a party in the conflict, simply a party
in the negotiation.
▪ Types of mediation strategies
□ Communication strategy -- close to good offices. Based on passing information from one disputed party to another,
thus lessening tensions and potential misunderstanding. Provides a more rational channel for communicating
between parties in conflict. Sometimes even represents the only communication channel between parties, for
example when one of the actors does not acknowledge the other actor as legitimate
□ Formulation strategy -- more active. Besides rationalizing the debate and controlling the stream of proposals of
both parties, it helps to set the agenda more clearly. Often sonnected to negotiation strategies
□ Manipulative strategy -- the third party actively enters and tries to keep all partie sof the conflict at the negotiating
table by employing some kind of pressure - e.g. setting deadlines for achieving progress, pushing the parties into
accepting solutions... May also filter information / keep some "secret" from the other side, to not harm the
equilibrium it tries to create
D. Enquiry and conciliation
○ Enquiry = verifies disputed facts and presents a report; impartial to the biases of the conlficted parties
○ Conciliation = after hearing the parties and considering their arguments and facts, the third party proposes a compromise
solution
International sanctions
- = attempts to influence the behavior of conflict parties, the extent, intensity or mode of the conflict by restrictive measur es adopted
against the will of the sanctioned actory by third party or parties
- Types of sanctions:
a. Diplomatic sanctions -- "softer" in nature; e..g revoke a state visit, withdraw diplomatic representation from a state; cancel the
recognition of a state
b. Economic sanctions -- e.g. tariffs, quotas, embargoes, blockades; or non-tariff restrctions on export / import, confiscation of
property etc; also individual economic sanctions are possible - freezing of assets of certain individuals abroad etc. (though those
are usually classified as targeted sanctions, see below)
c. Military sanctions -- e.g. arms embargoes, limited and restricted military action
d. Other - culutral, sport, academic... -- boycotts (e.g. of the Olympic Games)
e. Sanctions against individuals (targeted sanctions) -- usually against members of a hostile regime
- Problems of sanction politics
○ Effectiveness
▪ Relation between goals and costs of their mechanism
▪ Relation between sanctions and alternative procedures
○ Impact
▪ Targeting the sanctions and their impact
▪ The question of smart sanctions
C. Military invervention
a. Classical intervetion -- interference into sovereign territory of another state which does not lead to an armed conflict
b. Preempetive / preventive intervetion -- against impending attack; takes place to deny further development of a potential
confict; led by an attempt to prevent a change in the balance of power
c. Interventions into an ongoing conflict -- e.g. humanitarian intervention, interventions motovated by peacebuilding / nation-
building
d. Rescue missions -- with the consent of the state concerned
○ Legitimacy of military intervetions
▪ Must be taken for the just cause and wit the right intention (not for personal gains)
▪ By the right authority
▪ Must have a reasonable likelihood of success
▪ Must be the last resort -- ergo only used when all other methods of conflict resolutions have been exhausted
▪ Proportionality -- the force must be proportionate to the problem
○ Effectiveness of miltiary interventions
▪ Problem of scope and impartiality - successful intrevention cannot be limited and impartial at the same time
▪ 'imperial' interveention - wit a decisive use of force
▪ Limited intervention in support of a party to a conflict
Civil wars
- Democratization as a solution - conditions of success:
○ The winner respects the rights of the loser, including the right to win in the future
▪ Including respecting the rights of the opposition and the possibility that they may be legally elected to power, and
push out the winner, because the people choose to do it
○ The loser accepts that defeat does not equal liquidation
○ All parties agree that state is not a property of any of them
- = difficult not just in parties after a civil war, but between parties in many other cases, even in democratic countries
○ e.g. the USA - when one party wins, the losing party is kicked out of its positions of power
- Mechanisms of overcoming the internal security dilemma
○ Demilitarization and unification of armed forces
▪ = all means of amred violence should be reduced and re-connected
▪ Different ways to do demilitarization: e.g. dissolving the entire existing force and creating a new one; cleasning te
most "problematic" units - paramilitary forces, death sqads; incorporating members of the opposition into the
official armed forces
Security guarantees for political leaders