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Geopolitical and
budget1͘&ƵƌƚŚĞƌŵŽƌĞ͕ƚŚĞdW/ƉŝƉĞůŝŶĞĐŽƵůĚĐŽǀĞƌĨ-‐ &Žƌ /ŶĚŝĂ ĂŶĚ WĂŬŝƐƚĂŶ ŝŶ ƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌ͕ ƚŚĞ dW/ ƉŝƉĞůŝŶĞ
ŐŚĂŶŝƐƚĂŶ͛ƐŐĂƐŶĞĞĚƐƚŚĂƚĂƌĞǀŝƚĂůĨŽƌŵĂŝŶƚĞŶĂŶĐĞĂŶĚ would
enhance
and
diversify
their
vital
energy
supply
ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĐŽƵŶƚƌLJ͛Ɛ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ĂŶĚ ŝŶĨƌĂƐƚƌƵĐ-‐ ůŝŶĞƐĂŶĚŽƉĞŶƵƉĐŽŵƉĞƟƟŽŶŝŶƚŚĞĞŶƚƌĂůƐŝĂŶŐĂƐ
ƚƵƌĞ͘dŚĞƉŝƉĞůŝŶĞǁŽƵůĚĂůƐŽƌĞĚƵĐĞƚŚĞŝƌĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐĞ ŵĂƌŬĞƚƐ ǁŚŝĐŚ ǁŽƵůĚ ďĞ ďĞŶĞĮĐŝĂů ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞŝƌ ŵŝŶŐ
Security Risks of
ŽŶ/ƌĂŶ͖ŝŶĞĐĞŵďĞƌϮϬϭϬ͕/ƌĂŶŝŵƉŽƐĞĚĂĨƵĞůďůŽĐŬĂĚĞ ĞĐŽŶŽŵŝĞƐ͘ WĞƌŝŽĚŝĐ ŇĂƌĞͲƵƉƐ ŽĨ ůŽŶŐͲƚĞƌŵ ƚĞŶƐŝŽŶƐ
ŽŶĨŐŚĂŶŝƐƚĂŶĂƌŐƵŝŶŐƚŚĂƚƚŚĞĨƵĞůǁĂƐĚĞƐƟŶĞĚĨŽƌh^ between
them
however
threaten
to
compromise
coop-‐
ĂŶĚEdKĨŽƌĐĞƐ͘,ŽǁĞǀĞƌ͕ƚŚĞůŝŬĞůLJƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚĐŽƐƚƐƚŽ ĞƌĂƟŽŶŝŶƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞ͘/ŶƚŚĞĐĂƐĞŽĨŚŝŶĂ͕ǁŚŝĐŚĐŽŶ-‐
Afghanistan
in
securing
the
pipeline
have
not
been
taken
siders
the
Central
Asian
gas
as
one
of
the
main
sources
TAPI Pipeline
ŝŶƚŽĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĂƟŽŶĂŶĚƌĞŵĂŝŶĂƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůŝŵƉĂƐƐĞ;ƐĞĞ to
meet
its
increasing
energy
demand,
the
emergence
ďĞůŽǁͿ͘ of
a
new
player
in
the
Central
Asian
region
may
provoke
Akhmed
Tillayev,
University
Technology
Petronas,
Malaysia &ƌŽŵĂƉŽůŝƟĐĂůƉŽŝŶƚŽĨ dŚĞĨŐŚĂŶĂŶĚWĂŬŝƐƚĂŶŝƉŽƌƟŽŶ ĐŽŶĐĞƌŶƐŝŶĞŝũŝŶŐ͘,ŽǁĞǀĞƌ͕
ǀŝĞǁ͕ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶ ŽĨƚŚĞƌŽƵƚĞŝƐƉŽůŝƟĐĂůůLJƵŶƐƚĂďůĞ China
is
currently
encourag-‐
of
the
TAPI
pipeline
will
ing
development
of
the
west-‐
In
December
2010
Ashgabat,
the
capital
of
Turk-‐ dŚĞ ĞƐƟŵĂƚĞĚ ĐŽƐƚ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ƉŝƉĞůŝŶĞ ŝƐ ĂƌŽƵŶĚ Ψϰ ďŝůůŝŽŶ ůŝŬĞůLJĂīĞĐƚƚŚĞĚĞůŝĐĂƚĞ ĂŶĚƉĂƌƟĂůůLJƵŶĚĞƌdĂůŝďĂŶĐŽŶƚƌŽů ern
parts
of
the
country
in
an
menistan,
welcomed
a
quadrilateral
summit
which
ƚŚĂƚŝƐĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚƚŽďĞůĂƌŐĞůLJĮŶĂŶĐĞĚďLJƚŚĞh^ͲďĂĐŬĞĚ equilibrium
between
ĞīŽƌƚƚŽŵĂƚĐŚƚŚĞĞĐŽŶŽŵŝĐ
brought
together
the
President
of
Turkmenistan
ƐŝĂŶĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚĂŶŬ͘ ƚŚĞŐĞŽƉŽůŝƟĐĂůĂŶĚĞŶĞƌŐLJŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƚƐŽĨďŝŐƉůĂLJĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞ growth
of
Chinese
eastern
provinces
and
has
expressed
Ener gy & Envir onment
Kurbanguli
Berdimuhamedov,
Pakistani
President
ƌĞŐŝŽŶƐƵĐŚĂƐZƵƐƐŝĂ͕/ŶĚŝĂ͕ŚŝŶĂĂŶĚƚŚĞh^͘ ŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƚ ŝŶ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƟŶŐ ŝŶ ƉŝƉĞůŝŶĞ ƉƌŽũĞĐƚƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ
Zardari,
Afghan
President
Hamid
Karzai,
and
the
Min-‐ ŶĞƌŐLJс/ŶŇƵĞŶĐĞ ƌĞŐŝŽŶ͘
ister
of
Oil
and
Natural
Gas
of
India,
Murli
Deora.
dŚĞdW/ƉŝƉĞůŝŶĞƉƌŽũĞĐƚǁŝůůŚĂǀĞĂƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚŐĞŽƉŽ-‐ Russia
considers
the
project
to
be
threat
to
its
domi-‐
The
intergovernmental
agreement
signed
during
this
ůŝƟĐĂůŝŵƉĂĐƚŽŶƚŚĞďƌŽĂĚĞƌƐŝĂŶĐŽŶƟŶĞŶƚĞdžƚĞŶĚŝŶŐ nance
in
the
Central
Asian
energy
market
and
fears
it
ZĞƐŝƐƟŶŐ/ƌĂŶŝĂŶĂŶĚZƵƐƐŝĂŶŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞŝŶƚŚĞƌĞŐŝŽŶ͕ƚŚĞ
ƐƵŵŵŝƚ ůĂŝĚ ƚŚĞ ĨŽƵŶĚĂƟŽŶ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶ ŽĨ as
far
north
as
Russian,
east
to
China
and
south
to
India
ǁŝůů ĂīĞĐƚ ZƵƐƐŝĂŶ ŐĂƐ ŐŝĂŶƚ 'ĂnjƉƌŽŵ͛Ɛ ƌĞǀĞŶƵĞƐ͘ &Ƶƌ-‐ h^ĂŶĚhƐƵƉƉŽƌƚƚŚĞdW/ƉƌŽũĞĐƚĂƐĂĐŽƵŶƚĞƌƉƌŽƉŽƐ-‐
the
TAPI
(Turkmenistan-‐Afghanistan-‐Pakistan-‐India)
ĂŶĚWĂŬŝƐƚĂŶ͘ thermore,
for
Russia,
which
is
one
of
the
main
importers
ĂůƚŽĂŶĂůƚĞƌŶĂƟǀĞ/ƌĂŶŝĂŶͲWĂŬŝƐƚĂŶƉŝƉĞůŝŶĞ͘dW/ǁŽƵůĚ
pipeline. ŽĨdƵƌŬŵĞŶŐĂƐ͕ƚŚĞŝŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚĂƟŽŶŽĨƚŚĞdW/ƉŝƉĞůŝŶĞ bypass
Russia,
and
link
to
the
planned
Nabucco
pipeline
Turkmenistan’s
dependence
on
Land-‐locked
Turkmenistan
ĚŝƐƚƌŝďƵƟŽŶŶĞƚǁŽƌŬŝƐůŝŬĞůLJƚŽĚĞĐƌĞĂƐĞDŽƐĐŽǁ͛ƐƐƚĂ-‐ ƚŚƌŽƵŐŚdƵƌŬĞLJƉƌŽǀŝĚŝŶŐĂƐĞĐƵƌĞŐĂƐƐƵƉƉůLJĨŽƌƵƌŽ-‐
The
proposed
TAPI
ŝƐ ŽŶĞ ŽĨ ĮǀĞ ĞŶƚƌĂů ƐŝĂŶ ƚƵƐĂŶĚŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞŝŶƚŚĞƌĞŐŝŽŶ͘ ƉĞĂŶŵĂƌŬĞƚƐ͘
pipeline
project
Russian
imports,
however,
has
meant
states
that
became
independ-‐
has
major
geopo-‐ ƚŚĂƚDŽƐĐŽǁŝƐŝŶĂƵŶŝƋƵĞƉŽƐŝƟŽŶ ent
in
1991
when
the
Soviet
WŽǁĞƌůŝŶĞƐŝŵƉŽƌƚĞůĞĐƚƌŝĐŝƚLJĨƌŽŵŶĞŝŐŚďŽƌŝŶŐĐŽƵŶƚƌŝĞƐŝŶƚŽƚŚĞĐĂƉŝƚĂůĐŝƚLJŽĨĨŐŚĂŶŝƐƚĂŶ
ůŝƟĐĂů ƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶĐĞ͘ hŶŝŽŶ ďƌŽŬĞ ƵƉ ĂŶĚ ƉŽƐƐĞƐƐ-‐
Spanning
a
region
to
dictate
the
price
of
Turkmen
gas
es
the
fourth
largest
reserves
ǁƌĂĐŬĞĚ ďLJ ƉŽůŝƟ-‐ ĂŶĚƉƌŽũĞĐƚŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞŝŶƚŚĞƌĞŐŝŽŶ ŽĨŶĂƚƵƌĂůŐĂƐŝŶƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚ͘/ƚ
cal
and
economic
strongly
depends
on
sales
of
tensions,
the
pipeline
represents
an
opportunity
to
piped
natural
gas
and
as
such
the
TAPI
pipeline
project
ŝŵƉƌŽǀĞ ƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐ ďĞƚǁĞĞŶ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƟŶŐ ƐƚĂƚĞƐ͘ &Ƶƌ-‐ ŝƐŽĨŐƌĞĂƚŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶĐĞŝŶĚŝǀĞƌƐŝĮĐĂƟŽŶŽĨŝƚƐĐƵƌƌĞŶƚůLJ
ƚŚĞƌŵŽƌĞ͕ Ăůů ĨŽƵƌ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƟŶŐ ĐŽƵŶƚƌŝĞƐ ǁŝůů ďĞŶĞĮƚ ůŝŵŝƚĞĚ ĞdžƉŽƌƚ ƌŽƵƚĞƐ͘ &ƵƌƚŚĞƌŵŽƌĞ͕ ϵϬй ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ƐƚĂƚĞ͛Ɛ
ĨƌŽŵƚŚĞƉƌŽũĞĐƚ͘&Žƌ/ŶĚŝĂĂŶĚWĂŬŝƐƚĂŶŝŶƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌ͕ revenue
is
based
on
the
export
of
energy
resources,
pri-‐
the
TAPI
pipeline
will
enhance
and
diversify
their
vital
ŵĂƌŝůLJƚŽZƵƐƐŝĂĚƵĞƚŽĂůĂĐŬŽĨĂůƚĞƌŶĂƟǀĞƐ͘dƵƌŬŵĞŶŝ-‐
ĞŶĞƌŐLJƐƵƉƉůLJůŝŶĞƐĂŶĚŽƉĞŶƵƉĨƵƌƚŚĞƌĐŽŵƉĞƟƟŽŶ ƐƚĂŶ͛Ɛ ĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐĞ ŽŶ ZƵƐƐŝĂŶ ŝŵƉŽƌƚƐ͕ ŚŽǁĞǀĞƌ͕ ŚĂƐ
ŝŶƚŚĞĞŶƚƌĂůƐŝĂŶŐĂƐŵĂƌŬĞƚƐ͘,ŽǁĞǀĞƌ͕ƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚ ŵĞĂŶƚƚŚĂƚDŽƐĐŽǁŝƐŝŶĂƵŶŝƋƵĞƉŽƐŝƟŽŶƚŽĚŝĐƚĂƚĞƚŚĞ
concerns
remain
surrounding
the
long-‐term
security
ƉƌŝĐĞŽĨdƵƌŬŵĞŶŐĂƐĂŶĚƉƌŽũĞĐƚŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞŝŶƚŚĞƌĞŐŝŽŶ͘
of
the
pipeline
primarily
along
the
proposed
trans-‐ An
opening
up
of
supply
routes,
with
a
parallel
expan-‐
ĨŐŚĂŶŝƐƚĂŶƌŽƵƚĞ͘ ƐŝŽŶŽĨŝƚ͛ƐĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌďĂƐĞ͕ǁŽƵůĚĞŶĂďůĞƉƌŝĐĞƚŚĞƌŝƐĞŽĨ
dƵƌŬŵĞŶŐĂƐƚŽƌŝƐĞĂŶĚƚŚƵƐŝŶĐƌĞĂƐĞƌĞǀĞŶƵĞ͘
The
TAPI
Pipeline
is
a
natural
gas
pipeline
that
will
transport
natural
gas
over
1700
km
from
Turkmenistan
Afghanistan
in
turn
expects
the
pipeline
to
generate
ƚŚƌŽƵŐŚĨŐŚĂŶŝƐƚĂŶĂŶĚŝŶƚŽWĂŬŝƐƚĂŶĂŶĚ/ŶĚŝĂ͘/ŶƚŚŝƐ ůĂƌŐĞƚƌĂŶƐŝƚĨĞĞƐǁŝƚŚƉƌŽũĞĐƚĞĚƌĞǀĞŶƵĞƌĞĂĐŚŝŶŐΨϯϬϬ
way,
the
pipeline
will
provide
33
billion
cubic
meters
of
ŵŝůůŝŽŶƐ ƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƟŶŐ ŽŶĞ ƚŚŝƌĚ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ƚŽƚĂů ĨŐŚĂŶ
dƵƌŬŵĞŶŐĂƐƚŽ^ŽƵƚŚƐŝĂŶŵĂƌŬĞƚƐ͘KĨƚŚŝƐ͕ϭϰďŝůůŝŽŶ
cubic
meters
will
be
delivered
to
Pakistan,
the
same
to
1 &ŽƐƚĞƌ:͘;ϮϬϭϬͿ͘ĨŐŚĂŶŝƐƚĂŶ͕ƚŚĞdW/WŝƉĞůŝŶĞ͕ĂŶĚŶĞƌŐLJ
/ŶĚŝĂ͕ĂŶĚƚŚĞƌĞƐƚǁŝůůĐŽǀĞƌƚŚĞŶĞĞĚƐŽĨĨŐŚĂŶŝƐƚĂŶ͘ 'ĞŽƉŽůŝƟĐƐ͘Journal
of
Energy
Security͘
46 A GLOBAL VILLAGE W W W . A G L O B A LV I L L A G E . O R G 47
G E O P O L I T I C A L A N D S E C U R I T Y R I S K S O F TA P I P I P E L I N E
Solar Power:
A
New
Silk
Road? the
TAPI
agreement,
which
was
adopted
in
Ashgabat
in
dŚĞ ŬĞLJ ƐĞĐƵƌŝƚLJ ƌŝƐŬ ŝŶ ƌĞĂůŝnjĂƟŽŶ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ dW/ ƉƌŽũĞĐƚ ĞĐĞŵďĞƌϮϬϭϬ͕ĚŽĞƐŶŽƚƐƟƉƵůĂƚĞƚŚĞƌĞƐƉŽŶƐŝďŝůŝƟĞƐ
ŝƐ ƚŚĞ ƉŝƉĞůŝŶĞ͛Ɛ ƉƌĞĐĂƌŝŽƵƐ ƌŽƵƚĞ͘ dŚĞ ĨŐŚĂŶ ĂŶĚ WĂ-‐ ŽĨƚŚĞƉĂƌƟĞƐƚŽĞŶƐƵƌĞƐĞĐƵƌŝƚLJŽĨƚŚĞŐĂƐƚƌĂŶƐƉŽƌƚĂ-‐
ŬŝƐƚĂŶŝ ƉŽƌƟŽŶ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ƌŽƵƚĞ ŝƐ ƉŽůŝƟĐĂůůLJ ƵŶƐƚĂďůĞ ĂŶĚ ƟŽŶ ƚŚƌŽƵŐŚ ĨŐŚĂŶŝƐƚĂŶ ĂŶĚ WĂŬŝƐƚĂŶ͘ /Ŷ ĐŽŶĐůƵƐŝŽŶ͕
Lighting up the
ƉĂƌƟĂůůLJƵŶĚĞƌdĂůŝďĂŶĐŽŶƚƌŽůŽƌƉĂƐƐŝŶŐƚŚƌŽƵŐŚƚƌŝďĂů ǁŚŝůĞƚŚĞƌĞĂƌĞĐůĞĂƌďĞŶĞĮƚƐĨŽƌdƵƌŬŵĞŶŝƐƚĂŶĂŶĚƚŚĞ
areas
that
have
a
history
of
independence
from
central
ƌĞŐŝŽŶ ĨƌŽŵ ƚŚĞ dW/ ƉƌŽũĞĐƚ͕ ƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚ ĐŽŶĐĞƌŶƐ ƐƵƌ-‐
ĂŶĚ ĨŽƌĞŝŐŶ ƉŽǁĞƌƐ͘ ^ĞĐƵƌŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƉŝƉĞůŝŶĞ ǁŽƵůĚ ŶŽƚ rounding
security
cast
doubt
on
the
viability
of
this
pro-‐
ŽŶůLJŶĞĞĚĂĚĚŝƟŽŶĂůƐĞĐƵƌŝƚLJĂŶĚŵŝůŝƚĂƌLJŵĞĂƐƵƌĞƐďƵƚ ũĞĐƚŝŶŝƚƐĐƵƌƌĞŶƚĨŽƌŵĂƚ͘
Future
ƚŚĞƌĞǁŽƵůĚĂůƐŽŶĞĞĚƚŽďĞĐŽŽƉĞƌĂƟŽŶďĞƚǁĞĞŶƚŚĞƐĞ
ŐƌŽƵƉƐ͘ Ɛ ƚŚĞ ĞdžŝƐƟŶŐ /^& ĂŶĚ ĨŐŚĂŶ ĨŽƌĐĞƐ ĂƌĞ ŶŽƚ
ůŝŬĞůLJƚŽŵĞĞƚƚŚĞƐĞƐĞĐƵƌŝƚLJĐŽŶĐĞƌŶƐ͕EdKǁŽƵůĚůŝŬĞůLJ
ďĞĐĂůůĞĚƵƉŽŶƚŽƐƵƉƉŽƌƚĨŐŚĂŶŝƐƚĂŶŝŶƉƌŽƚĞĐƟŶŐƚŚĞ Alice
Rolandini
Jensen,
Imperial
College
London
ƉŝƉĞůŝŶĞ͘,ŽǁĞǀĞƌ͕ƐŝŶĐĞƚŚĞƉŝƉĞůŝŶĞƉƌŽũĞĐƚŝƐƐĞƚƚŽůĂƐƚ
at
least
50
years,
it
could
auger
a
very
long
commitment
in
Afghanistan,
perhaps
too
severe
a
price
to
pay
for
the
Solar
energy
is
a
free,
clean
and
abundant
source
of
ĞŵƉůŽLJŝŶŐƉŚŽƚŽǀŽůƚĂŝĐĚĞǀŝĐĞƐ;WsͿ͘^ŽůĂƌWsƚĞĐŚŶŽů-‐
ĨŐŚĂŶƐ͘ Akhmed
Tillayev ŐƌĂĚƵĂƚĞĚ ƚŚĞ hŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ŽĨ tŽƌůĚ renewable
energy.
However
there
are
a
number
of
is-‐ ogy
has
the
advantage
that
it
can
be
installed
in
most
ĐŽŶŽŵLJ ĂŶĚ ŝƉůŽŵĂĐLJ͕ ďĂĐŚĞůŽƌ ŽĨ ƌƚƐ͕ ŵĂũŽƌŝŶŐ ŝŶ sues
that
must
overcome
in
order
to
ensure
that
solar
environments
and
can
be
designed
to
blend
into
the
48 A GLOBAL VILLAGE W W W . A G L O B A LV I L L A G E . O R G 49