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BUSA 7250 Module 2
BUSA 7250 Module 2
SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
BUSA 7250
MODULE 2
Table of Contents
Learning Outcome ....................................................... 2-1
References................................................................. 2-21
Learning
Outcome Use a variety of decision-making models to maximize organizational
performance.
Learning
Tasks • Apply a disciplined approach to decision making.
Decision Making
and Problem
Solving Introduction
The effectiveness of managers is definitely measured in terms of the
effectiveness of their decisions. When it comes to important
decisions, making one great decision can let the manager be a hero
while making a wrong one he or she can be seen as a failure. This is
can more easily be observed in military or emergency situations.
Definitions
Decision making can be defined as the process of selecting one of
several possible alternatives.
Problem Types
Logical or Structured
This type of problem is clearly identified and has a logical structure.
As a result, you eventually get to the solution by following a set
route, as is used for solving a mathematical problem. The previous
example of candidate selection presents a logical, or structured,
problem. You know (at least you should know) what type of a
person you are looking for and what the selection criteria are. One of
the candidates meets all the requirements. Therefore, the selection is
easily made.
Elusive or Unstructured
This problem is often difficult to define in the first place, and, once
defined, the solution is not apparent. Following a logical approach
does not necessarily lead to a solution.
The Rational
Decision-Making
Process There are eight steps involved in the decision making process:
Next you set clear objectives for solving the problem. What
desirable situation is sought? Do you, for example, want high
staff morale or do you want to balance your budget?
5. Evaluate Alternatives
Compare the alternatives (such as the candidates in the
example) on the basis of the preset selection criteria. Does one
candidate meet all criteria unequivocally? Is there a tie? If so, is
there a deciding criterion? Do some candidates meet some
criteria, but not others? Remember the weights allocated to the
criteria.
• Risk
• Timing
• Economy
• Resources
• Implementation
• Contribution to objectives
6. Select an Alternative
This step should be fairly easy, provided that the process has
been smooth up to now. It should simply be a matter of
selecting the alternative that obtained the highest score during
the previous step and meets the evaluation checklist. If, in the
earlier selection example, it was decided that the tie would be
resolved by making continuing education courses a “tie-
breaking” second criterion, candidate A, who happened to be
enrolled in the BCIT degree program would receive the
promotion.
If you discover that the process has not solved the problem, or it
has created other problems, you may have to trace your steps,
analyze and even begin the process once more!
Emerging Issues
in Decision
Making In recent years the decision making model has undergone some
important revisions in areas such as health care and risk
management.
For example, Health Canada and managers in the area of health care
have recently revised the decision making framework in the face of
critical scrutiny of decision making and the management of Canada’s
blood supply.
Health Canada's Decision Making Framework is a process for identifying and managing risks
to health. These risks may arise from diseases, hazardous substances, food, medical devices,
drugs, tobacco and consumer products.
The Framework consists of a series of inter-connected and inter-related steps.These six steps
may be grouped into three phases:
• Issue identification (identify the issue and put it into context);
• Risk management (identify and analyze options, select a strategy, implement the strategy and
monitor and evaluate the results).
Generally speaking, the process begins at the top of the diagram, and proceeds clockwise
through the other steps. The process is flexible in that one may move back and forth between
steps or revisit steps based on available information. For example, a previous step may be
revisited when new information becomes available and needs to be considered.
Source: Health Canada Decision-Making Framework for Identifying, Assessing, and Managing Health Risks. (2014
August ).
Figure 2.1
Revised Decision Making Framework
Types of
Decisions Business decisions fall into two categories: programmed and non-
programmed.
As you can see from the above, programmed decision tools assist the
manager in making routine or reoccurring decisions by speeding up,
Example: You are faced with an employee’s request for one week’s
compassionate leave to arrange and attend the funeral of
an aunt. At first glance, this request cannot be granted
because the organizational policy specifically states that
such leave is reserved for “immediate family members
only” and an aunt is not considered immediate family.
On careful investigation, however, you discover that the
aunt raised this employee since his mother died when he
was four, although she did not legally adopt him, and
that she lived alone and had no other living relatives.
Your policy obviously does not cover such complex
circumstances and at this point you will have to make a
non-programmed decision.
Personality
Types
Problem solving, as noted, is a two-dimensional process of gathering
information and manipulating that information. A person’s
personality may impact how he or she approaches a problem.
Personality types may provide further insights on how individuals
approach decision making differently.
2. How does the person take in info? Does the person prefer
clear, tangible data as a Sensor (S) or does the person prefer
more abstract, conceptual, “gut feel” info Intuitor (N)?
Three Models
of Decision
Making In making a decision, people tend to believe that they are using the
rational decision-making process and are aiming at the optimum
decision. Most would deny that often they knowingly, or
unwittingly, deviate from the set process and take shortcuts that do
not lead to the best decision.
Decision Tree
Theory The Decision Tree theory attaches a quantitative value to each
potential alternative, in order to overcome the degree of uncertainty
involved in non-programmed decision making. A simplified
demonstration of the Decision Tree theory is given in the following
scenario:
BUY
NO .5 X ($10,000) = - $5,000
PERMIT LOSS
Figure 2.2
Decision Tree
Are there problems with the above approach? Yes. One is that the
recommendations will be as sound as the input into the process. If
you fail to consider all alternatives, or if you input incorrect
information, the recommendations will be worthless.
Example: When the late former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau was
questioned about the uncontrolled borrowing and
spending of the early 1970s and 80s that resulted in the
subsequent huge national debt he replied: “We did not
know then about the upcoming globalization and about
Canada losing thousands of jobs to developing countries.
We thought then that the Canadian economy would
continue to grow at the same rate, therefore we would be
able to repay the debt.” Paraphrased from a 1996 CBC
television interview with Mr. Trudeau.
Individual
Versus Group
Decision
Making In some work environments supervisors and managers make all but
minor day-to-day decisions. This is autocratic management. In other
workplaces, employees are empowered to make a range of decisions
and are encouraged to participate in group decision making. This is
democratic or participative management. In the past, the Japanese
model of group decision making by consensus has also been hailed
as the most effective approach. Although empowerment and group
decision making are strongly recommended, there are always
exceptions to the rule and pitfalls in adhering to it. There are
organizations headed by strong individual decision makers. And
there are occasions when group decision making does not come up
with the right answer and so the group hampered, rather than
enhanced, decision effectiveness.
INDIVIDUAL GROUP
• When the problem is logical (structured) and you can use the
systematic approach
• When you lack the ability, expertise and resources to make your
own decision
Disadvantages
• Time-consuming
• Perception of abdication of responsibility or incompetence
• Minority domination
• Shared (reduced) responsibility
• Groupthink (see following)
Signs of Groupthink
Mind-guarding: One or more members block the presentation of
points of view that may create disharmony.
Overcoming Groupthink
• Assign the role of critical evaluator to each member by using
anonymously submitted written critiques.
• Have group members discuss issues with their staff and report
back on their reactions.
4. If the problem and the criteria are not yet clearly defined,
encourage participation in defining.
8. Evaluate solutions.
Problems
with Problem
Solving
There are a number of issues that can come up during the decision
making process. It is important to guard against these issues as they
may impact the integrity of the process or the quality of the decision.
You cannot solve your initial problem until you get to the end of the
chain.
Vested Interests
It is in someone’s interest to keep the problem unsolved because the
solution may mean a loss to him or her.
Different Perceptions
• Is there a problem at all?
• What is the problem?
• How important is the problem?
• What are the available alternatives?
• Evaluation of alternatives
Impact of
Decision
Making on
Others From the examination of problem solving and decision making so
far, you must have concluded that decisions vary in importance from
minor to major. We all accept that major organizational decisions
have some impact on others within and without the organization.
References McKenney, J.L., & Keen, P.W. (1974). How manager’s minds work.
Harvard Business Review, 52(3).