Quaternary International 208 (2009) 109–115

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Quaternary International
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/quaint

Simulation on stream flow and nutrient loadings in Gucheng Lake, Low

Yangtze River Basin, based on SWAT model
Zhihua Huang a, b, Bin Xue a, *, Yong Pang b
a
State Key Lab of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, PR China
b
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, PR China

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: A distributed watershed hydrologic model soil and water assessment tool (SWAT, 2000 Version) was
Available online 12 February 2009 applied to simulate stream flow and nutrient loadings (including total nitrogen (TN) and total phos-
phorus (TP)) in Gucheng Lake Basin, which is located in the lower reach of Yangtze River Basin. Model
parameters related to stream flow and nutrient loadings were calibrated and validated by the observed
value, and the simulation showed that the simulated values were reasonably comparable to the observed
data, suggesting the validity of SWAT model. The simulated surface runoff and nutrient yield between
two stages, viz. 1981–2000 and 1951–1960, were compared, basically considering land reclamation in the
mid-1970s. The result indicated that, the average annual runoff and output of TN and TP in 1981–2000
were 1.32  108 m3 a1, 411.88  103 kg a1 and 43.04  103 kg a1 respectively, much higher than that in
1951–1960, which were 1.15  108 m3 a1, 49.55  103 kg a1 and 7.67  103 kg a1 respectively. The
simulation provides better understanding on stream flow and nutrient loadings responding to variations
of land use conditions, agricultural tillage operation and natural rainfall, etc.
Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
China has undergone a rapid change and economy growth,
particularly in the populated and developed region of the middle–
lower reach of the Yangtze River Basin. Dramatic pollutant loadings
deteriorated the lake water quality. And as a consequence, the lake
water is eutrophicated and algae blooms (Qin, 2007). This low
Yangtze region is characterized by its long history of human
activities, which was greatly enhanced during the past five decades
(Wang and Dou, 1998; Jin, 1995). Human activities influencing lake
environment were the direct driving force, e.g. construction of
water conservancy facilities, embankment and land reclamation,
etc., and indirect deforestion, cultivation and industry develop-
ment, etc. Taking land reclamation as an example, Poyang lake
(2933 km2) and Dongting Lake (2625 km2), the largest two fresh
water lakes in China, have ever had an area of 5200 km2 and
4350 km2 respectively in 1949 before reclamation (Jiang and
Huang, 2004). The statistics in China indicated that most of the
* Corresponding author at: State Key Lab of Lake Science and Environment,
Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 73 East
Beijing Road, Nanjing 210008, PR China. Tel.: þ86 25 8688 2158; fax: þ86 25 5771
4759.
E-mail address: bxue@niglas.ac.cn (B. Xue).
lakes in low Yangtze Area have undergone intense reclamation, and
as a result, over 1/3 area of lakes (over 13,000 km2) disappeared,
and over 1000 lakes vanished. The human activities around the
lakes such as land reclamation have showed an important effect on
catchment nutrient loadings. Therefore, more and more hydrologic
models are being developed with respect to lake nutrient evolution
(Di Luzio et al., 2002, 2004; Dearing et al., 2006), to diagnose
correlation between nutrients deposition and release, to seek the
dynamic mechanism on human activities and lake eutrophication,
and further to analyze influence on lake nutrients under the
interaction of natural impact and human activities.
The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) is a physically
based, continuous time model, developed by Dr. Jeff Arnold for
the USDA-ARS (Agricultural Research Service) (Arnold et al., 1998),
mostly used to predict the impact of land management practices
on water, sediment, and nutrient yields over long periods of time
(Di Luzio et al., 2002). SWAT model has been used extensively to
access water quality and quantity changes in the catchment
responding to agricultural management across the US, Canada and
other European countries (Bingner, 1996; Fontaine and Jacomino,
1997; Arnold et al., 1998; Manguerra and Engel, 1998; Rosenberg
et al., 1999; FitzHugh and Mackay, 2000; Chanasyk et al., 2003;
Grizzetti et al., 2003; Bekiaris et al., 2005; Bouraoui et al., 2005;
Plus et al., 2006; Abbaspour et al., 2007; Fayçal and Bruna, 2007).
Although the majority of previous SWAT applications focus on

1040-6182/$ – see front matter Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2008.12.018
110 Z. Huang et al. / Quaternary International 208 (2009) 109–115

Fig. 1. Geographic location and water system of Gucheng Lake Basin.

flow and sediment simulation in large complex river basins
(Rosenberg et al., 1999; Chanasyk et al., 2003; Zhang et al., 2003;
Chen and Chen, 2004), SWAT flow and nutrient transportation
modeling in medium and small sized watersheds are much more
common in the literatures (e.g. Arnold and Allen, 1996; Arnold
et al., 1999; Harmel et al., 2000; Franeos et al., 2001; Hu et al.,
2003; Kang and Park, 2003; Kang et al., 2006). The SWAT ArcView
extension is a graphical user interface for the SWAT model
(Arnold et al., 1998), which combining geographical information
system (GIS) for efficient processing of geographic-spatial infor-
mation data. In recent decade, it has been preliminarily applied to
some larger watershed located in the middle–lower reach of
Yangtze River Basin, China, such as Honghu (Li, 2004; Gui and Yu,
2006; Gui et al., 2006) and Taihu Lake (Lai, 2005; Lai et al., 2006;
Yu et al., 2007). Unfortunately, the use of SWAT model suffered
from a serious of drawbacks (Abbot and Refsgaard, 1996), such as
data acquiring and processing, model sensitivity and validation in
relation to different parameterization schemes, etc. (Romanowicz
et al., 2005). Especially the simulation for Taihu Lake failed to
predict accurately the monthly-runoff partly due to the lack of
detailed artificial river network data.
In this study, we focused on Gucheng Lake, a small catchment
located in the lower Yangtze River Basin, attempting to simulate
water discharge and pollutant loadings from 1951 to 2000 based on
AVSWAT2000 model, to reconstruct lake nutrients evolution, and
to evaluate approximately the extent of human impact according to
comparison simulation between two stages, viz. 1981–2000 and
1951–1960.
2. Study area
Gucheng Lake Basin is located in the lower reach of Yangtze River,
approximately between 31140 –31200 N and 118 510 –118 580 E
(Fig. 1). It is a water-passing lake with a long history of people living
and agricultural development. The terrain of Gucheng Lake is weakly
fluctuated, from the east and south low mountains and hills to the
west plain polders, and the river density is relatively small (Zhang
et al., 2000) compared with other lakes in the low Yangtze delta, e.g.
Taihu Lake (Wang and Dou, 1998). Climate is warm and wet, typical
of northern subtropical monsoon climate. For the 1951–2000
periods, the average annual temperature is 15.5  C, and the average
annual precipitation and evaporation are 1105.01 mm and

20 70
20
FLOW/m3·s-1

Simulated value 16 B
Observed value 12
16 50
8
A 4
FLOW/m3·s-1

FLOW/m3·s-1

12 0 30
1 3 5 7 9 11
Month

8 10

4 -10

0 -30
1990 1991 1992
Year
Fig. 2. Comparison on simulated and observed monthly-runoff in the outlet of Gucheng Lake Basin during 1990–1992.
 Z. Huang et al. / Quaternary International 208 (2009) 109–115 111

60 80 Table 1
Comparison on simulated and observed average annual concentration of TN and TP
Precipitation/mm

during 1996–2000 (mg L1).

60

FLOW/m3·s-1
40 Nutrients/ 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Mean Correlation Nash–
Year value coefficient Sutcliffe
40
coefficient
20 TN Simulated 0.90 0.56 0.83 0.88 0.98 0.83 0.995 0.858
20 value
Observed 0.94 0.58 0.91 0.95 1.05 0.89
0 0 value
TP Simulated 0.072 0.035 0.066 0.035 0.156 0.073 0.997 0.952
7
19 -18

19 -19

19 -20

19 -21

19 -22

19 -23

19 -24

19 -25

86 6

7
-1

19 6-2

-2
value
-6

-6

-6

-6

-6

-6

-6

-6

-6

-6
-
86

86

86

86

86

86

86

86

86

86
Observed 0.058 0.023 0.058 0.024 0.169 0.066
19

19

value
Time
Gaochun Simulated runoff of Yangjiawan water gate

Fig. 3. Comparison on an intense precipitation recorded by Gaochun station with the topographic map, digital river network and a climatic database.
simulated runoff of Yangjiawan water gate in June, 1986. Based on GIS, all the geographic data were projected to
a 100 m  100 m grid data under the same reference frame.
940.7 mm respectively. The basin is covered naturally by evergreen Land use data of Gucheng Lake Basin were interpreted from
and deciduous broad-leaved mixed forest. Three major soil types are TM images of three different stages (1986, 1996 and 2000), and
found in the catchment including red–yellow soil, yellow cinnamon vegetation type, which were contained in the land use in SWAT
soil and paddy soil, and detailed information about the soils are model, should be assigned consistent with different land cover.
referred to Shi (unpublished data; 2002, 2003). The bottom of the Soil data were sourced from Chinese soil investigations and
lake is composed of loose and organic-rich sediments deposited in mapping in post-1980s (Institute of Soil Science, 1986; National
the Holocene, which is suitable for developing aquaculture and Soil Survey Office of China, 1993–1997). Digital soil data with
planting (Dou and Wang, 1983). a scale of 1:1,000,000 (unpublished data; referred to Shi and Yu,
Gucheng Lake is mostly supplied by river discharge originating 2002; Shi et al., 2003) were used in the simulation, and the data
from the northeast mountain areas, and surface flow from the contain soil types and major properties, including sand, silt, clay
mountainous and hilly areas around the lake (Wang and Dou, 1998). contents (%), organic matter content (%), and TN (mg L1), TP (mg
In addition, the return flow water from the Yangtze River to the lake L1), available phosphorus (mg L1), and bulk density (g cm3).
is also an important contributor during the Yangtze flooding. Additional soil parameters were defined using data in the
Gucheng Lake receives water inflow mainly from Xuhe River, Qiqiao archives of regional soils in Gaochun country, Jiangsu province.
River and Niuergang River, while Guanxi River is the only outflow In this study, the standard 1:100,000 digital topographical maps
river (Wang and Dou, 1998). Since mid-1970s, Gucheng Lake in electronic files were provided by the National GIS Center of
reduced the area to 1/3 before 1950s, nearly 24.3 km2, due to land China (1999). Thirteen sub-layers are included, e.g. administra-
reclamation. Especially after the construction of Yangjiawan water tive district (BOUNT, BOUPT), residential area (RESPY, RESPT),
gate at Guanxi River in 1975, Gucheng Lake has almost become digital elevation (DEM), river system (HYDNT, HYDLK), and
a closed lake, and the lake volume has been controlled by human terrain (TERLK), etc. Natural river network of the lake basin was
beings (Ji et al., 1993; Gu et al., 2005). Now, Gucheng Lake is manually digitized by using software MapInfo according to the
a medium trophic and macrophyte-type lake due to lake swampy 1:100,000 topographical maps. In addition, important river bank
(Gu et al., 2003). and watershed were taken into consideration in order to delin-
eate accurately the natural boundary of Gucheng Lake Basin.
3. Data and methods Climate data were obtained from three weather stations
including Gaochun (31190 N, 118 530 E), Liyang (31260 N,
3.1. Dataset for SWAT 119 290 E) and Wuhu (3120 N, 118 230 E) from 1951 to 2000
(National Meteorology Center of China, 2001), including daily
Five major datasets were required for the model (Neitsch et al., maximum and minimum temperature, daily precipitation, daily
2002a), which includes a land use map, a soil map, a digital wind speed, daily humidity and solar radiation.

60 3.2. Simulation methods

Precipitation/mm

40 In order to distinguish clearly the influence on nutrient loadings

induced by human activities, especially land reclamation and

20

0
7

7
1

2
6-

6-

6-

6-

6-

6-

6-

6-

6-

6-

6-
-

-
86

86

86

86

86

86

86

86

86

86

86
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

Time
Liyang Wuhu

Fig. 4. An intense precipitation recorded by two weather stations (Liyang and Wuhu)
in June, 1986. Fig. 5. Simulated monthly river flow changes during 1981–2000.
112 Z. Huang et al. / Quaternary International 208 (2009) 109–115
Fig. 6. Simulated monthly concentration and output changes of TN and TP during 1981–2000.
agricultural tillage operation during the past 50 years, two
comparative simulations were designed, viz. 1981–2000 and 1951–
1960.
For simulation of stream flow and nutrient loadings from 1981
to 2000, the lake area of Gucheng Lake was 24.3 km2, nearly 1/3
before 1950s, and the simulation was run according to different
land use data of three stages (1986, 1996 and 2000). The three
simulations showed that land use of Gucheng Lake fluctuated
slightly during 1986–2000, and therefore, the mean value was
selected as the final simulated result.
For the simulation from 1951 to 1960, the lake area was much
bigger, ca. 66 km2. Unfortunately, this simulation failed to predict
accurately due to coarse geographic data. Most of the data sets for
the model were referenced from the former simulation, in addition,
some history documents had been taken into consideration for
parameter regulation, e.g. lake area, water system, land manage-
ment, etc.
4. Model calibration and validation
Model calibration and validation are indispensable for simula-
tion, which are used to assess model prediction results. Calibration
was performed by comparing the simulated and observed surface
runoff. After achieving a reasonable runoff data, the same param-
eters were used for calibration of the sediment and nutrient yield,
and further for validation (Neitsch et al., 2002a,b).
4.1. Flow calibration
For flow calibration, the runoff curve number (CN2 in.sub
or.mgt) was first adjusted within 8 until surface runoff is
acceptable. In general, the runoff curve number was positively
correlated to monthly-runoff. If surface runoff values were still not
reasonable after adjusting curve numbers, soil available water
capacity (0.04) (SOL_AWC in.sol) and soil evaporation compen-
sation factor (ESCO in.sub) also would be adjusted (Neitsch et al.,
2002a).
Based on the observed monthly-runoff data during 1976–2006
from Yangjiawan water gate (Fig. 1), which was built at the Guanxi
River in 1975, the simulated monthly-runoff from 1990 to 1992 was
calibrated, including a catastrophic flood recorded in 1991 (Fig. 2).
Different values appeared between the simulated and observed
monthly-runoff during the simulation for 1981–2000. The differ-
ence might be explained by the measured errors in runoff data, and
system errors of SWAT. Usually, model outputs were continuous,
while river flow from Yangjiawan water gate was artificially
controlled, and the discharge was even found orienting from the
Yangtze River to Gucheng Lake during flooding period. As a result,
negative runoff data were obtained from the measured value
(Fig. 2A). After reasonable parameter calibration, the simulated
monthly-runoff was in the range of the observed values (Fig. 2B),
and the correlation coefficient and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient
reached 0.95 and 0.88 respectively, which showed the validity of
the simulation.
4.2. Test on the lag time of the peak rainfall
In order to test the lag time of the peak rainfall, the time when
the Guanxi River reached the maximum outflow was compared
with the time when the peak rainfall recorded in Gaochun weather
station. In this test, a heavy rainfall during June 17th–27th, 1986
(Fig. 3) was selected as a case study. During this process when
a single rainstorm occurred on June 21st with the 24 h rainfall over
50 mm, the simulated outlet runoff of Guanxi River, controlled by
Yangjiawan gate, reached the peak value on June 22nd. The
preliminary result showed that the lag time was about 24 h. Further
comparison on average daily rainfall recorded by the two nearby
weather stations (Fig. 4) indicated that, a heavy rainfall (more than
50 mm) was observed in Liyang and Wuhu weather station on June
22nd. This showed that the lag time of the peak rainfall was less
than 24 h, which supporting the simulation result on river flow.
4.3. Nutrients calibration
The nutrients involved in SWAT are nitrate, soluble phosphorus,
organic nitrogen (ON) and organic phosphorus (OP). When cali-
brating for a certain nutrient, this change made will have an effect
on all the other nutrient levels (Neitsch et al., 2002a). Nutrient
calibration can be basically divided into three steps (Neitsch et al.,
2002a): (1) check that the initial concentrations of the nutrients in
the soil are correct. These are set in the soil chemical input file
(.chm) and in the soil input file (.sol), including nitrate (SOL_NO3
Fig. 7. Simulated monthly river flow changes during 1951–1960.
 Z. Huang et al. / Quaternary International 208 (2009) 109–115
Fig. 8. Simulated monthly concentration and output changes of TN and TP during 1951–1960.
in.sol), soluble phosphorus (SOL_MINP in.chm), ON (SOL_ORGN
in.chm) and OP (SOL_ORGP in.chm). (2) Verify that fertilizer
applications are correct. Check amounts and the soil layer that the
fertilizer is applied to. The fertilizer may be applied to the top
10 mm of soil or incorporated in the first soil layer. The variable
FRT_LY1 identifies the fraction of fertilizer applied to the top 10 mm
of soil. (3) Verify that agricultural tillage operations are correct.
Tillage redistributes nutrients in the soil and will alter the amount
available for interaction or transport by the surface runoff.
In this study, no detailed monthly nutrient concentration were
measured, just 5 yearly concentrations of TN and TP from 1996 to
2000 were obtained from Nanjing Environment protection office,
China. The simulated and observed average annual concentration of
TN and TP and some statistic parameters such as correlation coef-
ficient and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient were listed in Table 1.
In general, the simulated TN and TP concentration matched
well with the observed value, and the obtained correlation coef-
ficient and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient exceeded 0.90, 0.85 and 0.99,
0.95 respectively, except that TP in 1997 and 1999 was over-pre-
dicted. The failure may be ascribed to that the internal nutrient
cycling of the lake had not been taken into account, due to lack of
detailed information, e.g. nutrients transformation, sediment
release, etc. Especially phosphorus nutrients in a macrophyte-type
lake could easily be absorbed by other granular matters and
formed into particulate phosphorus, and finally deposited in the
bottom of the lake (Gui and Yu, 2006). Therefore, phosphorus
content in the lake water was lower than the simulated value. The
simulated 5 yearly mean value of TN and TP were 0.83 mg L1 and
0.073 mg L1, close to the measured value, viz. 0.89 mg L1 and
Fig. 9. Comparison on average annual output changes of TN and TP during two simulated stages, i.e. 1981–2000 and 1951–1960.
113
0.066 mg L1 respectively, which verdict that the simulation was
basically acceptable.
5. Analysis and discussion of the two simulations
5.1. Simulation from 1981 to 2000
5.1.1. Monthly variations of surface runoff
The simulated average annual stream flow was 1.32  108 m3
a1 from 1981 to 2000. The annual runoff main distributed during
May–September, which was 60% of the whole year (Fig. 5). As
a preliminary process for the model, the simulation for 1981 was
excluded.
5.1.2. Monthly concentration and output changes of TN and TP
Seasonal variations of nutrient concentration and output were
different (Fig. 6). The simulated annual concentration of TN and TP
were 0.82 mg L1 and 0.084 mg L1. According to runoff and
nutrient concentration, the nutrient output of TN and TP were
calculated, viz. 411.88  103 kg a1 and 43.04  103 kg a1
respectively.
The maximum output of TN and TP occurred in summer (from
June to September), the sub-high value in spring and the minimum
output occurred in winter. This was in accordance with the agri-
cultural tillage operation (i.e. cultivating in spring and fallowing in
winter). Moreover, in summer, plenty of external pollutants were
carried by high runoff and finally flowed into the lake, which
enhanced nutrient loadings.
114 Z. Huang et al. / Quaternary International 208 (2009) 109–115
5.2. Simulation from 1951 to 1960
The purpose of this simulation was mainly to reconstruct
nutriment evolution from 1951 to 1960 due to lack of measured
data. The simulation for 1951 was also excluded due to the started
instability, the same as that for 1981. The simulated annual runoff
distributed mainly from May to September, which was 64% of the
whole year, viz. 1.15  108 m3 (Fig. 7). The nutrient concentration
and output were 0.22 mg L1, 49.55  103 kg a1 for TN and
0.036 mg L1, 7.67  103 kg a1 for TP (Fig. 8). In summer, soil
erosion was strengthened by high runoff amounts, with which
plenty of pollutants were carried and finally flowed into the lake.
Therefore, the maximum of nutrient loadings occurred in summer.
5.3. Comparison with two simulations
Comparison on the predicted monthly-runoff for the two
simulations (Figs. 5 and 7) showed that, the simulated annual
runoff in the two simulations were close to the measured mean
value, about 1.40  108 m3 (Wang and Dou, 1998). More than half of
the runoff distributed during May–September, and the maximum
value occurred in July. The results indicated that monthly-runoff
variations in the lake were mostly influenced by natural rainfall.
Due to high precipitation, the lost nitrogen and phosphorus
nutrients flowed into the lake, followed with surface runoff and
inflow, which aggravated lake water quality.
A dramatic difference appeared between the two simulations on
nutrient loadings of TN and TP (Fig. 9). During 1951–1960, the
simulated output of TN and TP were 49.55  103 kg a1 and
7.67  103 kg a1, but ca. 20 years later, they increased to
411.88  103 kg a1 and 43.04  103 kg a1 respectively during
1981–2000. The agricultural cultivation mode in the beginning
stage of the founding of China was set as a natural agricultural
tillage, whereas since 1980s, land reclamation occurred dramati-
cally, and considerable amounts of fertilizer were launched into
farmland in order to enhance the crop yield. Therefore, nutrient
loadings in 1981–2000 were higher than that in 1951–1960.
6. Conclusion
The two simulations between 1981–2000 and 1951–1960 indi-
cated that, monthly-runoff distribution was mainly controlled by
natural rainfall, and land boundary conditions also showed an
important effect. Monthly nutriment output varied mostly due to
surface runoff and agricultural tillage operation, e.g. fertilizer
application time and crop rotation system, etc. In general, nutrient
concentrations in summer were lower than that in spring due to
precipitation dilution effect, and monthly variations of nutriment
output also responded to surface runoff. In summer, plenty of
organic pollutants poured into the lake due to high runoff volume,
while less in winter. In addition, nutrient concentration and output
were not only influenced by surface runoff and agricultural tillage
operation, but also by fertilizer consumption.
The simulated nutrient concentration and output of TN and TP
in 1981–2000 were 0.82 mg L1, 411.88  103 kg a1 and 0.084 mg
L1, 43.04  103 kg a1 respectively, which were much higher than
that in 1951–1960, viz. 0.22 mg L1, 49.55  103 kg a1 for TN, and
0.036 mg L1, 7.67  103 kg a1 for TP. During 1951–1960, Gucheng
Lake was regarded in a natural status, as land reclamation had not
showed dramatic effect to stream network of the watershed, and
industrialization and urbanization were still at the burgeoning
stage, the impact of human activities was basically characterized by
the agricultural tillage operation. While, at the simulation stage
from 1981 to 2000, the lake area reduced close to 40% of 1950s, and
the enhanced human activities, including rapid development of
industry, increasing human population, urbanization, etc., deteri-
orated lake environment and finally resulted in lake eutrophication.
Based on the preliminary application of AVSWAT2000, this
paper is attempted to study how lake flow and nutrient loadings
responded to human activities in this small lake of low Yangtze
River Basin. Certainly, the simulation should be validated by the
achievements from paleolimnology, if possible, and further be
improved and perfected.
Acknowledgements
Financial support was provided by the National Nature Science
Foundation of China (No. 40771197), CAS project (kzcx2-yw-319-2)
and the Nature Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK
2007534). We thank Prof. Xiaomei Liu, Nan Jiang, Ge Yu and Pen-
gzhu Xu for providing digital geographic data and some hydro-
logical data, and Dr. Shuchun Yao, Jifeng Liu, Feng Gui, Changfeng Li,
Fang Wang, Master Guangju Zhao and Xiaolin Wang for beneficial
assistance. We thank Prof. Sumin Wang and Ge Yu for constructive
suggestions on the study.
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