March 2022

EYE ON ALBERTA
ALBERTA’S PUBLIC AFFAIRS
MONITOR

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 LEADERSHIP OF THE
UNITED CONSERVATIVE PARTY

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 Leadership of the United Conservative Party
Will Jason Kenney Survey in 2022?

The UCP showdown over Jason Kenney’s leadership is now just a month away. Only party
members assembled in Red Deer on April 9th will be casting a ballot, but if all Albertans
were voting Jason Kenney would be out of the job.
A substantial majority (61%) of Albertans think the UCP should seek a new leader before the
next election, compared to only 20% who feel Kenney should stay and 19% unsure. These
results have shifted only nominally since December 2021 when 64% said the UCP should
find a new leader.
The results to this question are remarkably consistent across demographic breaks, and an
assessment of partisanship is not especially promising for the premier.
• Among those who voted UCP in the last election, 59% say he should go
• Among those who have ever been UCP members, 65% would like a new leader
• Among those CURRENTLY UCP members, 54% want a new leader
• Among those planning to vote for the WRIP, 85% say he should go
• And, even among those planning to vote for the UCP in the next election a plurality
(41%) want Kenney gone vs. 37% who feel he should stay
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 Should the UPC Keep Kenney as Leader?

Should Jason Kenney continue as leader of the United Conservative Party or should the UCP seek a new
leader in a leadership election before the next provincial election?
Feb'22 Dec'21

61%
UCP should seek a new leader
64%

20%
UCP should keep Jason Kenney as leader
19%

19%
Unsure
17%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Base: All respondents (n=1,136)

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 Should the UPC Keep Kenney as Leader?
By Key Demographics
Should Jason Kenney continue as leader of the United Conservative Party or should the UCP seek a new leader in a leadership election before the next
provincial election?
Seek new leader Keep Kenney as leader Unsure Seek new leader Keep Kenney as leader Unsure

Alberta (n=1,136) 61% 20% 19% Alberta (n=1,136) 61% 20% 19%
REGION LAST PROV VOTE
South (n=119) 67% 22% 11% UCP (n=523) 59% 24% 17%
Edmonton (n=360) 61% 20% 19% NDP (n=323) 61% 21% 18%
Calgary (n=395) 60% 21% 19%
ABP (n=88)* 71% 17% 12%
NEXT PROV VOTE
Central (n=126) 60% 21% 19%
WIPA (n=116) 85% 6%9%
North (n=136) 60% 17% 23%
ABP (n=85)* 80% 12%
AGE
NDP (n=442) 63% 19% 18%
18-34 (n=362) 58% 20% 22%
UCP (n=320) 41% 37% 22%
35-54 (n=415) 63% 19% 18% Undecided (n=104) 67% 11% 22%
55+ (n=358) 62% 22% 16% UCP MEMBERSHIP
GENDER Ever been (n=333) 65% 22% 13%
Male (n=563) 63% 20% 17% No, never (729) 60% 19% 21%
Female (n=567) 60% 20% 20% Current (n=101) 54% 34% 12%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Base: All respondents | *Caution: Small sample size

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 Research Methodology

• Approach: Online survey of Adult Albertans Sample sizes: Unweighted Weighted MOE*
• Region: Alberta Alberta total n=1,136 n=1,136 +/- 2.9
• Field dates: February 23 - 25, 2022 Calgary n=405 n=395 +/- 4.9
• Sample size: n=1,136 Edmonton n=353 n=360 +/- 5.2
• Panel source: Angus Reid Forum Northern Alberta n=114 n=136 +/- 9.2
• Sampling: A random stratified sample of
Central Alberta n=141 n=126 +/- 8.2
panelists was invited to complete the survey
from the Angus Reid Forum panel Southern Alberta n=123 n=119 +/- 8.8
• Weighting: Weighted to reflect gender, age and *Margin of error: Percentage points 19 times out of 20.
region of the Alberta population according to The margin of error is associated with a probability sample of this
Stats Canada size.

• Margin of error: The margin of error for a Accuracy of sub-samples of the data decline based on sample
sizes
comparable probability-based random sample of
this size is +/- 2.9 percentage points, 19 times
out of 20

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 FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT:
Marc Henry, President

ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc.

Marc@ThinkHQ.com
403.605.8587

Copyright © 2022 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
The contents of this document are the exclusive property of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc., and may not be used in any manner whatsoever, without the prior written
consent of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. No license under any copyright is hereby granted or implied.