Qualifying a Decision, BITS Pilani

BITS Pilani
Pilani Campus

Decision Analysis
Qualifying a Decision
 Qualifying a Decision, BITS Pilani

Quality of
Decision Quality of
Outcome
Frame

Reasoning Alternatives

Quality
Decision

Information Values

Decider
 Qualifying a Decision, BITS Pilani

Mind Conscious
Peripherals

Behavior Intellect

Environment

Memory
 Qualifying a Decision, BITS Pilani

The Space Shuttle Columbia disaster occurred

on February 1, 2003, when Columbia
disintegrated over Texas and Louisiana as it
reentered Earth's atmosphere, killing all seven
crew members.

During the launch of STS-107, Columbia's 28th

mission, a piece of foam insulation broke off
from the Space Shuttle external tank and struck
the left wing. A few previous shuttle launches
Perspective had seen minor damage from foam shedding,
but some engineers suspected that the damage
to Columbia was more serious. NASA managers
limited the investigation, reasoning that the
crew could not have fixed the problem if it had
been confirmed.

When Columbia reentered the atmosphere of

Earth, the damage allowed hot atmospheric
gases to penetrate and destroy the internal wing
structure, which caused the spacecraft to
become unstable and slowly break apart.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle_Columbia_disaster
 Qualifying a Decision, BITS Pilani

Creativity begins at finding new alternatives

Problem
Perspective Alternatives
statement

An alternative is one that is under your control

List all the known alternatives

Put them away, and find new set of alternatives

Decision without alternatives leads to frustration

Alternatives without decision leads to analysis-paralysis

Excessive alternatives result in confusion and stress

 Qualifying a Decision, BITS Pilani

Choice
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3MWOJUUrYY&list=FLipXV88beKLLH_UsgXta9Vg

Alternativ
es
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKi4_u3vjjk

Preference

Value

Status-
Frame quo

New
Conflict
state

Alterna
Choice
tives
 Qualifying a Decision, BITS Pilani

Tough
task

Information Uncertainty
Why do we need information for decision making?
• Humans depend on external systems for survival
• Each system is a network of subsystems
• Each subsystem has its own reliability
• Subsystems in series reduce system reliability
• Reduced reliability means increased uncertainty
• Uncertainty is reduced by:
• Redundancy
• Improving predictability
 Qualifying a Decision, BITS Pilani

Decision Tree

Logic

Influence Diagram